FitchRatings MCB - Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw
Transcription
FitchRatings MCB - Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw
Covered Bonds Germany Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw Mortgage Covered Bonds New Issue Key Rating Drivers Ratings/Outlook Mortgage Covered Bonds ‘AAA’/Stable Rating Rationale IDR/Outlook IDR uplift (notches) D-cap (notches) Tested rating on a PD basis Recovery given default uplift (notches) Covered Bonds Rating OC Fitch considers in analysis (%) AAA breakeven OC (%) ‘A+’/Stable 2 4 (Moderate risk) ‘AA’ 2 ‘AAA’ 100.3 16.0 Discontinuity Risk (D-Cap of 4) Overall assessment Asset segregation Liquidity gap and systemic risk Systemic alternative management Cover pool-specific management Privileged derivatives Moderate Low Moderate Very low Moderate Very low Key Data Sep 15 Residential and commercial mortgages Cover assets (EURbn) 1.083 Covered bonds (EURbn) 0.393 Nominal OC (%) 175.60 WAL of assets (years) 10.8 WAL of liabilities (years) 9.4 Asset type Ratings Based on Recoveries: Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘A+’, reflecting membership of the Sparkassen-Finanzgruppe (SFG) mutual support group, and the two-notch IDR uplift, result in a floor of ‘AA’ for the Pfandbriefe rating on a tested probability of default (PD) basis. The overcollateralisation (OC) Fitch takes into account, at 100.3%, allows for a two-notch recovery uplift and a ‘AAA’ Pfandbrief rating. Therefore, the assigned Discontinuity-Cap (D-Cap) of four notches (moderate risk) is not driving the rating. The Stable Outlook on the Pfandbriefe reflects that on SFG’s IDR. Beneficial IDR Uplift: Fitch has assigned a two-notch IDR uplift to the programme. The IDR uplift reflects the exemption of Pfandbriefe from bail-in, Fitch’s view of Germany as a covered bonds intensive jurisdiction and the fact that resolution by other means than liquidation is considered likely for a German savings bank. Credit Loss Driving OC: The main component of the 16% ‘AAA’ breakeven OC is the credit loss of 10.7%. In a ‘AAA’ scenario Fitch has calculated a weighted average (WA) default probability for the cover assets of 29.9% and a WA recovery rate of 67.7%. This reflects the programme being mainly exposed to residential mortgages but also comprising 16% share of small commercial assets. The cash flow valuation component of 9.4% reflects differences in the weighted average life of assets and liabilities, with 10.8 for the former and 9.4 for the latter. Four-Notch Cushion: The ‘AAA’ rating of the Pfandbriefe would be vulnerable to a downgrade if any of the following occurs: Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw is downgraded to ‘BBB-‘ or below; or the total number of notches represented by the IDR uplift and the D-Cap is cut to one or lower; or the level of OC taken into account by Fitch falls below the breakeven OC of 16.0%. Programme Highlights Mixed Portfolio, Predominantly Residential: The covered bonds are secured by a dynamic pool of 78% residential mortgages and roughly 16% of commercial mortgage assets, with the remainder consisting of substitute assets in the form of debt issued by German federal states. The residential pool is granular with an average loan size of 57,900 euros and exhibits a comparatively low risk profile. The commercial part is more concentrated in terms of borrower size with the largest ten obligors making up 24.7%. Related Research Covered Bonds Surveillance Snapshot (July 2015) 'B' Portfolio Loss Rates for Covered Bonds (September 2015) The Credit Outlook (July 2015) Analysts Jan Seemann, CFA +49 69 768076 112 [email protected] Dr. Georgy Kharlamov +49 69 768076 263 [email protected] www.fitchratings.com However, with an average loan size per borrower of 591,225 euros the commercial part consists of smaller loans compared to other commercial real estate Pfandbrief programmes rated by Fitch. High Regional Concentration: Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw`s operations are almost exclusively concentrated in the region of Pforzheim Calw in the south-western German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, as each individual savings bank focuses on providing standard banking products within a clearly defined local area. The region is relatively affluent and is shaped by a large number of small and medium sized companies with a focus on engineering. To account for this regional concentration, Fitch ran a sensitivity analysis with increased default and recovery assumptions to reflect the risk that an unexpected economic shock in the region would negatively affect the performance of the whole portfolio. 25 September 2015 Covered Bonds Sovereign Impact The covered bond rating does not include any adjustments due to Germany’s sovereign rating of ‘AAA’/Stable. For countries rated above ‘A+’ Fitch applies its standard liquidity gap analysis, which forms part of the D-Cap, focussing on asset liquidity following an idiosyncratic stress of an issuer, while the banking sector as a whole is expected to remain stable and not suffer from a systemic crisis. Therefore, Fitch’s view on liquidity and systemic risk is unlikely to change unless the German sovereign was downgraded four notches to ‘A+’ or below. Germany has a country ceiling of ‘AAA’ and all cover assets are located in Germany. Therefore, Fitch does not adjust the calculated rating default and recovery rates, which are applied in its covered bond analysis. Sensitivity Analysis There is limited downward pressure on the ‘AAA’ rating for Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s mortgage covered bonds. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s Long-Term IDR of ‘A+’ has a Stable Outlook and the IDR is driven by the mutual support of the SFG member banks. With the current IDR uplift of 2 and D-Cap of 4 in place, Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s covered bond rating would likely remain unchanged (due to IDR impact) unless the IDR fell by five notches to ‘BBB-’. Figure 1 Pforzheim Calw If Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s IDR remains at ‘A+’, the covered bond rating would likely remain unchanged (due to IDR uplift and D-Cap impact) unless the combination of the IDR uplift of 2 and D-Cap of 4 (equivalent to a total of 6 notches currently) fell to one notch. This would involve the D-Cap moving to 0 or 1, which would correspond to a full discontinuity or very high discontinuity risk. These are unlikely assessments for liquidity protection in the form 180days liquidity coverage for a standard mortgage cover pool in a country with a sovereign rating of ‘AAA’. There is a large cushion between the breakeven OC of 16% and the level of OC Fitch gives credit to in its analysis, which equals 100%. This is the lowest nominal OC observed in the last 12 months. The Issuer Sparkasse Pforzheim was founded in 1834 and merged in 2003 with Kreissparkasse Calw. th Today, Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw is the 11 largest savings bank in Germany and is active in the residential and commercial loan market. The bank offers all necessary services to private and commercial clients. Source: Fitch Related Criteria Covered Bonds Rating Criteria (July 2015) Counterparty Criteria for Structured Finance and Covered Bonds (May 2014) Criteria for Interest Rate Stresses in Structured Finance Transactions and Covered Bonds (Dec 2014) EMEA RMBS Master Rating Criteria (Aug 2015) Criteria Addendum: Germany – Residential Mortgage Assumptions (Aug 2015) Criteria for the Analysis of Commercial Real Estate Loans Securing Covered Bonds (May 2015) Covered Bonds Rating Criteria – Mortgage Liquidity and Refinancing Stress Addendum (Sep 2015) Fitch's Mortgage Covered Bond Refinancing Stresses – Excel File (Sep 2015) Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 The region of Pforzheim Calw is located in the southern German state (Bundesland) of BadenWuerttemberg. It lies closely to the cities of Stuttgart and Karlsruhe. The region is relatively affluent and is shaped by a large number of small and medium sized companies with a focus on engineering and electronics. Furthermore, a cluster of mail-order businesses can be observed. For historic reasons numerous jewellers and watch-makers are located in the area, too. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw`s IDR has been assigned in line with the SFG`s IDR. SFG includes 413 savings banks, 361 of which Fitch has assigned a group rating. The savings banks form a homogenous and relatively cohesive group and are organised into 12 regional savings banks associations. At the national level, Deutscher Sparkassen- und Giroverband (DSGV), the association of regional savings bank associations, represents the savings banks and the broader SFG including the Landesbanken. Each individual savings bank focuses on providing standard banking products within a clearly defined local area. The covered bond holders benefit from a dual recourse against the cover pool, secured by cover assets originated by Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw, and an unsecured, unsubordinated recourse against the issuer (see Appendix 1 for a programme summary). 2 Covered Bonds Abbreviations D-Cap: Discontinuity Cap IDR: Issuer Default Rating OC: Overcollateralisation PD: Probability of Default WAL: Weighted Average Life WAFF: Weighted Average Frequency of Foreclosure WARR: Weighted Average Recovery Rate IDR Uplift of 2 Notches In bank resolution frameworks where covered bonds are favourably treated, such as under the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) for EU countries, Fitch’s analysis starts with an uplift over the IDR of up to two notches for programmes of issuers rated in the ‘BB’ category and above. A two-notch uplift is granted if at least two of the following three factors are present in Fitch’s view or one notch if one of the factors is present. Figure 2 IDR Uplift of 2 for Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s Covered Bonds IDR uplift driver Relative ease/motivation for alternative resolution methods to liquidation Covered bond intensive country Sufficient protection through senior unsecured debt Fitch assessment Yes. The bank is part of SFG, which is regarded as a systemically important, mutual support group. The whole group is therefore treated as a single issuer for the purpose of this analysis. Yes. Germany is considered a covered bond intensive jurisdiction. No. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw relies to a greater extent on deposits than senior unsecured for funding. As a consequence, capital available for bail-in is limited. Source: Fitch D-Cap of 4 Notches The potential risk that a covered bond could default if recourse shifts to the cover pool from an issuer is captured via Fitch’s D-Caps, which determine the maximum uplift from the IDR (adjusted by any IDR uplift) to the tested rating on a PD basis. It reflects the highest risk assessment of the five components ranging from ‘8’ for minimal discontinuity to ‘0’ for full discontinuity. Fitch has assigned this programme a D-Cap of 4 notches (moderate risk). Liquidity gap and systemic risk is assessed as moderate and constitutes the weakest link in the analysis. Figure 3 Summary of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s Covered Bonds Discontinuity Risk Assessment Overall assessment Asset segregation Liquidity gap and systemic risk Systemic alternative management Cover pool-specific alternative management Privileged derivatives 4 (moderate risk) Low risk Moderate risk Very low risk Low risk Very low risk Source: Fitch Details on the assessment for each D-Cap component can be found in Appendix 2. Cover Pool As of 4 September 2015, the cover pool contained EUR843.7m of residential mortgage loans to private individuals and EUR177.9m of loans to small and medium companies for financing commercial properties. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 3 Covered Bonds Key information about the residential and commercial pools is given in the tables below. Figure 4 Residential Pool Characteristics as of 04 Sep 15 based on loan-by-loan data General Current principal balance (EURm) Number of loans Number of borrowers Average current loan per borrower (EUR) WA seasoning (years) WA remaining term to maturity (years) 843.7 13,606 10,295 81,953 5 20 Amortisation type (%) Annuity Bullet Other 86.6 13.3 0.1 Interest type (%) Fixed Floating 97.7 2.3 Employment status (%) Employee Self employed Civil servant Retiree 79.6 11.8 4.2 4.4 Property type (%) Flat Single family house Multifamily house Other 22 66.9 7.6 3.5 Property purpose (%) Owner occupied Investment property 86.5 13.5 Source: Fitch Figure 5 Commercial Pool Characteristics as of 04 Sep 15 based on loan-by-loan data General Current principal balance (EURm) Number of loans Number of borrowers Average current loan per borrower (EUR) WA remaining term to maturity (years) Amortisation type (%) Amortising Bullet 177.9 471 301 591,225 14 94.6 5.4 Source: Fitch Cover Pool Credit Analysis The credit analysis of the residential portfolio was based on loan-by-loan data as of 4 September 2015 and conducted in line with Fitch’s EMEA RMBS Rating Criteria, published on 28 August 2015 and Criteria Addendum: Germany, published on 20 August 2015. Fitch used its asset model (ResiEMEA) to calculate the estimated gross loss for each loan in the portfolio as the product of its foreclosure frequency and loss severity. The gross loss is a measure of the expected loss on each loan for the associated rating level (each corresponding to a particular stress scenario). The weighted average foreclosure frequency and weighted average recovery rate are the key outputs from the asset analysis that are used when Fitch models the cash flows of a transaction. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 4 Covered Bonds The main factors driving Fitch’s base foreclosure frequency are the original loan-to-value (OLTV) and the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio. Fitch calculated an average OLTV of 75.2%. The DTI ratio is not provided by any German covered bond issuer on residential mortgage loans. Fitch applied its standard assumption of 40% that is generally used in the absence of loan-byloan information. Fitch’s recovery assumption is mainly driven by the value of the property at the time of the analysis and rating scenario dependent market value declines (MVDs), comprising a house price decline assumption and a quick sale adjustment. Both are a function of regional groups (which are classified by economic strength – groups A, B, C and D) and property type. The market values in the portfolio data are indexed by taking into consideration the respective valuation date. The ‘AAA’ MVD for each property results in a weighted average portfolio MVD of 60%. With regards to risk characteristics, the residential portfolio benefits from factors that, in Fitch’s view, show a lower risk profile in terms of foreclosure frequency. For example, as can be seen from the table above, the majority of the loans are amortising annuities with a fixed interest rate, the majority of the borrowers are employees and the majority of properties are owner occupied. However, the residential pool has a very high geographic concentration, with roughly 97% of the properties/borrowers located in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the state where Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw operates. While this is an economically strong state, an unexpected shock in the region would severely affect the performance of the whole portfolio. The agency took this into account in its analysis by running a sensitivity test with increased foreclosure frequency and loss severity assumptions. A substantially smaller portion of the pool consists of loans to small and medium companies for the financing of commercial properties. This portion is more concentrated in terms of borrower size than the residential part. In line with its criteria, Fitch analysed this portion of the pool using its Portfolio Credit Model (PCM). The rating default rates produced by PCM are driven primarily by the portfolio concentration, as well as the long term to maturity. The rating recovery rates are driven by the collateral value, adjusted by applying certain rating specific haircuts in line with Fitch’s Criteria for Rating Granular Corporate Balance-Sheet Securitisations (SME CLOs), published on 6 March 2015. The weighted average asset analysis results for the residential and commercial pools can be found in the figure below. Figure 6 Weighted Average Asset Model Output for Residential and Commercial Pools (%) Rating default rate Rating recovery rate Rating loss rate AAA 29.9 67.7 9.7 AA 25.4 75.4 6.3 A 20.0 80.7 3.9 BBB 15.0 86.0 2.1 BB 10.2 93.2 0.7 B 6.6 97.4 0.2 Source: Fitch Cash Flow Analysis Fitch’s cash flow model simulates the asset cash flows to reflect prepayment, servicing costs, delinquencies, defaults and recoveries in multiple stress scenarios under various issuer default timings. The programme is rated on a recovery basis, so contrary to the modelling of cash flows for timely payment, Fitch applies one-half of the normal refinancing spreads to calculate the stressed NPV of the entire cover pool rather than solely the portion of assets sufficient to bridge Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 5 Covered Bonds maturity mismatches. The applied refinancing spread in a ‘AAA’ are 100bp compared to 200bp. No price cap applies when computing the stressed NPV of assets. The breakeven OC level calculated by Fitch is highly sensitive to prepayment assumptions. Fitch tested prepayments from 0% up to 10%. High prepayments shorten the assets’ weighted average life (WAL) to 5.3y from 10.8y, increasing maturity mismatches as this compares to a WAL of the covered bonds of 9.4y. Modelling low interest rates with prepayments results in the most severe outcome because of the resulting negative carry of prepaying fixed mortgage contracts into a floating cash portion reinvested at a stressed interest rate. Defaulted loans are assumed to recover with a certain time lag. Based on data provided by Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw, we assume a recovery lag of 2.6y in the ‘AAA’ scenario. Fitch did not apply any FX stresses as both the cover assets and the covered bonds are denominated in EUR. Figure 7 Amortisation Profile (Unstressed) (As of September 2015) (EURbn) Cover assets Pfandbriefe 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 (Quarters) Source: Fitch/Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw Breakeven OC for the Rating Figure 8 Breakeven OC Components 30% Asset Disposal Loss Cash Flow Valuation Credit Loss Breakeven OC (Recovery only) based) 20% 10% 0% Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw Source: Fitch Fitch has calculated a breakeven OC of 16.0% for the assigned rating. The main driver is the credit loss component of 10.7%. Compared to purely residential programmes this is relatively high and is the result of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s 16% share of commercial assets in the cover pool. To a lesser extent, breakeven OC is explained by the cash flow valuation component of 9.4% which reflects differences in the weighted average life of assets and liabilities, with 10.8 years for the former and 9.4 years for the latter. As the programme is rated on a recovery basis, Fitch does not model for timely payment. The asset disposal loss component of 7.3% therefore displays a stressed valuation of the full cover pool at half of the refinancing spread applied when tested for timely payments. In future, breakeven OC levels will be affected by, among others factors, the profile of the cover assets relative to outstanding covered bonds, which can change over time, even in the absence of new issuances. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that a given level of OC supporting the assigned rating will remain stable. On-Going Programme Review The agency will periodically review the credit quality of the cover pool and perform a cash flow analysis to assess whether the current OC provides protection against identified risks commensurate with the rating of the Pfandbriefe issued by Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw under this programme. Cover pool and covered bonds information will be updated regularly and displayed on Fitch’s covered bond surveillance tool (available at www.fitchratings.com) and in the quarterly Covered Bonds Surveillance Snapshot (July 2015). Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 6 Covered Bonds Appendix 1: Programme Summary Under this programme, Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw can issue covered bonds which are governed by the German Pfandbrief Act. The covered bonds are secured by a dynamic pool of predominantly residential mortgages and roughly 16% of granular commercial mortgage assets located in Germany. The cover assets, originated by Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw, remain on the issuer`s balance sheet and are serviced by the issuer. They are recorded in the cover register. The covered bonds rank pari passu among themselves and represent direct, unsecured and unconditional obligations of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw. The issuer is regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) which is also responsible to appoint the Treuhänder (trustee). Without the Treuhänder’s consent the bank is neither allowed to put assets in the cover register nor to remove them. At or even before insolvency, a special cover pool administrator (Sachwalter) would be appointed by the court at the request of BaFin to take over the management of the cover pool. The assets recorded in the cover register would not be part of the issuer’s insolvency estate and would be unaffected by the opening of insolvency proceedings. This estate would continue to exist as a Pfandbriefbank with limited business (PBwLBA), carrying a banking license, and would have the limited purpose of managing the cover assets in favour of Pfandbrief holders and counterparties to repay the Pfandbriefe in full and on time. To serve this purpose the alternative manager has the right to sell assets, to receive the cash flows from the assets, to take out loans or to issue new Pfandbriefe. Figure 9 Simplified Group Structure Diagram Diagram of A Pfandbrief Issuance Federal Financial Supervisory Authority BaFin Regular Monitoring Legal Framework: Pfandbrief Act Cover Pool Monitor and Deputy-App. By BaFin Cover Pool Administrator-App. By BaFin in Case of Issuer Involvency Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw Any Bank with a License from BaFin Cover Pool and Registered Derivatives Pfandbriefe Issuance Proceeds Swap Agreements Pfandbrief Investors Derivative Counterparties Senior Unsecured Liabilities Other Assets Subordinated Liabilities Cash and Securities Shareholder’s Funds Source: Fitch Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 7 Covered Bonds Appendix 2: D-Cap Assessment for Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s Covered Bonds Asset Segregation: Low Risk Fitch expects that ring-fencing of the cover pool will be effective when applying any D-Cap assessment other than full discontinuity, given the ‘all or nothing’ nature of this risk. The differentiation between the D-Cap categories is based on whether any portion of the cash flows or assets might still be lost (and if so, to what extent), which would lower the cover pool amount available for bondholders. A ‘low’ risk assessment is applied to German Pfandbrief programmes, given the strong legislative framework in place but also taking into account the remote risk of a retransfer of OC available above the legally required minimum. The agency considers it very unlikely that any claims would reduce the cover pool available to investors after issuer default, as the German Pfandbrief Act explicitly states that upon issuer insolvency the cover assets recorded in the cover register are separated from the general insolvency estate of the issuer (insolvency remote) and constitute a special estate, a Pfandbriefbank with limited business activity holding a banking license. The cover pool is exclusively available to the Pfandbrief investors and registered derivative counterparties. However, under existing Pfandbrief legislation, uncertainty remains regarding voluntarily held OC. That is, such OC could be withdrawn from the cover pool before initiation of an insolvency procedure. But the agency expects that in practice, before releasing cover assets, the Treuhänder would consult BaFin and would also take into account the levels of OC the Pfandbrief programme was managed to before immediate problems of the issuing bank. In addition the Pfandbrief Act states that the insolvency administrator of the Pfandbriefbank is entitled to retransfer cover assets, in excess of the amount that will be needed to repay the Pfandbriefe, back to the general insolvency estate. But due to the long-term nature of the assets and potential future market volatility likely to be taken into account Fitch regards it as difficult to prove that OC is obviously not needed. German issuers operate under an integrated template and no external account bank for collections is in place. Normally, commingling is of higher risk for integrated templates. However, strong legislation justifies a low risk assessment. In accordance with Fitch`s counterparty criteria, a potential loss resulting from cash flows being commingled with the general bank account may be reflected for lower rated entities. The covered bonds are secured on a dynamic pool of assets that remain on the issuer’s balance sheet but are recorded in a dedicated cover register. The legal effect of cover asset registration is to segregate the assets so that the Pfandbrief holders have special creditor privilege in the event of the issuer’s winding up or dissolution. At issuer insolvency, the segregated pool will be separated from the general insolvency estate and managed autonomously by a specific, dedicated administrator for the benefit of the respective Pfandbrief holders. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 8 Covered Bonds Figure 10 Asset Segregation: Low Risk Component driver Segregation of cover pool from other creditors of issuer Excess OC immune from claims from other creditors Asset and liability claw back risk Commingling risk Set-off risk for deposits Fitch assessment Cover assets are segregated through their registration in the cover register (Deckungsregister). Registered assets form a special estate (PBwLBA) and are exclusively available for the claims of the bondholders and priviledged derivative counterparties. Residual risk remains as the German Covered Bond law states that assets should be given back to the general insolvency estate if they are “obviously not necessary” to cover the claims of the bondholders, the minimum OC and the costs of the Pfandbrief Bank with limited business activity (PBwLBA). Remote risk of asset and liability claw back as circumstances in which claw back may occur are rare and rather hypothetical. Residual risk remains as prior to the commencement of insolvency proceedings or appointment of a Sachwalter collections received are not separated from the general bank account in the issuer`s name. No structural mitigating factors are in place. After beginning of insolvency proceedings or appointment of a Sachwalter commingling is legally prohibited. Set off against assets entered into the pool is excluded by law. Netting is only allowed for derivative contracts belonging to the same pool and from the same counterparty. Currently no privileged derivatives are registered to the cover pool of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw. Source: Fitch Liquidity Gap and Systemic Risk: Moderate Risk Fitch has classified the liquidity gaps and systemic risk component as ‘moderate’, driven by the 180-day liquidity provision regulated in the German Pfandbrief Act, the assumed liquidity of German residential mortgage assets, the amount and frequency of asset sales in certain stress scenarios, and the expected access of the PBwLBA to the Eurosystem via national central bank funding for short-term liquidity. As with most covered bond programmes, the incoming cash flows from cover assets do not exactly match at all times the cash outflows on the liabilities. Liquidity shortages could arise, especially shortly after the issuer default. The main liquidity mechanism provided by the Pfandbrief law to cover such liquidity gaps is the 180-day liquidity rule. This requires that the maximum cumulative liquidity gap over the next 180 days, calculated on a daily basis, is covered by liquid or European Central Bank-eligible assets. However, expected cash flows are not adjusted for expected defaults, prepayments and costs related to the management of the cover pool and the mechanism may not fully cover the six months liquidation timing assumed for German residential mortgage assets. But as Fitch gives credit to the ability of a PBwLBA to repo its own covered bonds or eligible assets within the Eurosystem the liquidity gap and risk assessment is ‘moderate’ and in line with most mortgage programmes in countries with established mortgage markets. The Sachwalter has the ability to choose which assets should be liquidated in order to raise liquidity. The share of less liquid commercial assets is not driving this analysis as the share of residential assets is sufficient to cover any modelled shortfall. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 9 Covered Bonds Figure 11 Liquidity Gap and Systemic Risk: Moderate Risk Component driver Principal protection Access to repo transactions Liquidity protection Swap termination payments Systemic risks Fitch assessment Not fully sufficient. 180 days mandatory liquidity provision covering the maximum liquidity gap of the next six months. The bonds are issued as hard bullet. Fitch expects a 6-12 month liquidity timing for German mortgages. The agency gives additional credit to the ability of a PBwLBA to repo its own covered bonds or eligible assets within the Eurosystem, provided the issuer has proven it has appropriate systems in place by already accessing the national central bank facilities Sufficient. Liquidity protection covers more than three month’s interest due and one quarter of annual senior expenses. Liquid assets are registered into the cover pool and as a consequence fully segregated. Swap termination payments rank pari passu with the bondholders, but no privileged derivatives are registered for Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw. No additional stress applied. As Germany (AAA/stable outlook) is rated above A+, Fitch focusses on asset liquidity following an idiosyncratic stress of an issuer while the banking sector as a whole is expected to be stable Source: Fitch Alternative Management Systemic Alternative Management: Very Low Risk Fitch takes into consideration the framework or contractual clauses governing the appointment of a substitute manager — together with the length of time required to appoint one — any potential conflict of interest (in cases where a single administrator in a bankruptcy takes care of covered bonds and other creditors), the manager’s responsibilities in the servicing and liquidation of the cover assets to meet payments due on the covered bonds and any further protection due to oversight or potential support for regulated covered bonds. Fitch has assessed the level of risk under systemic alternative management as ‘very low’, in line with all German Pfandbriefe programmes. This assessment is mainly driven by the detailed duties and powers of the Sachwalter stipulated in the German Pfandbrief Act and the comfort provided by the active oversight of BaFin under the Pfandbrief framework. The assessment also reflects the positive effect of the active oversight undertaken by BaFin. Figure 12 Systemic Alternative Management: Very Low Risk Component driver Administrator takes exclusive care of covered bondholders? When are they appointed? Importance of timeliness of payments in the legal provisions Substitute manager able to sell cover assets or borrow to make timely payments Conflicts of interest in alternative management Fitch assessment A special administrator (Sachwalter) will service the pool in the interest of the bondholders. The special administrator will be appointed at the latest at insolvency of the issuer by BaFin. Prior appointment is possible. Pfandbrief Act highlights that liabilities should be repaid on their due date. The special administrator has the power to sell assets and take bridge-financing, take out loans or issue new Pfandbriefe. The special administrator is solely responsible for administration of the covered bond programme after the issuer’s insolvency. Source: Fitch Cover Pool-Specific Alternative Management: Low Risk Fitch focuses on the likely ease of the transferability of relevant data and IT systems to an alternative manager and buyer, with such quality and ease also judged on the quality and quantity of data provided. Fitch has assessed the level of risk under cover pool alternative management as ‘low’, reflecting the cover assets’ type and the quality of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s systems and processes in place. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 10 Covered Bonds In practice, a smooth transition to an alternative manager is dependent on the quality of the issuer’s systems. Fitch believes that a transition to an alternative manager for Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw’s cover pool would be facilitated by the established and standard IT system it uses for its cover pool management. The agency believes that standard software could reduce the complexity of the reporting and monitoring procedure and would positively affect the efficiency of the workflow. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw uses standard software provided by an external servicer for its cover pool management. The reporting is generally automated. Data is delivered on a loan-byloan basis in Fitch’s template. Figure 13 Cover Pool Alternative Management: Low Risk Component drivers Cover assets, debtors’ accounts and privileged swaps clearly identified within IT systems Standardised or custom-made IT systems used. Fitch assessment Market standard systems are in place that ensure identification of that registered assets of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw. Fitch considers used systems to be well known in the market, enabling an alternative manager to easily start managing the programme. Automation and speed of cover pool All Fitch templates will be provided at least on a quarterly basis and reporting produced fully automated. Only minor data limitations exist. Adequate filing of loan Loan files for residential and commercial loans are available partially documentation, evidence of security in electronic and paper based form. Source: Fitch Privileged Derivatives: Very Low Risk Fitch considers programmes encompassing privileged hedging agreements to be more vulnerable to a potential insolvency of the issuer. As no privileged derivatives are registered to the mortgage covered bonds of Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw, a very low risk assessment applies. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 11 Covered Bonds Appendix 3: Originator and Servicer Operational Review Origination For historical reasons, Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw is organised in three market divisions (Pforzheim, Enzkreis, Calw). Each division is split into 29 regional centres, with 120 branches and service centres. For the region of Pforzheim there are seven branches (“Filialdirektionen”). These branches are responsible for loan origination. If a small service centre lacks the size for loan origination (usually 30-60 loans need to be originated annually) this will be done by one of the larger branches. Loan origination for business clients follows a credit assessment performed by credit specialists. Loan origination for retail clients is organised by competences. Underwriting Underwriting processes are centralised and are supported by standardised and consistent processes, IT-systems and risk management. All borrowers are subject to a credit scoring process. No loan is approved based on the collateral only. A preliminary credit scoring on the basis of historical information with the bank (if the client has been a customer before, e.g. on a credit card) is performed. If no prior client relationship exists, statements for the most recent three months are necessary. In case a contract is created a current credit scoring (Schufa) is performed. A number of internally developed scorecards and check-lists are used to ensure a complete and consistent approach. The appraisal process for each property is based on an on-site visit. For small financings the evaluation is done on the basis of photographs. Should the construction of a new building be delayed, an on-site visit at the construction site will take place. However, such a case would not be added to the cover pool. Appraisers are trained continuously, at least annually. Servicing The covered bond programme is managed with a market standard software, allowing for a daily registration of newly added loans. However, loans are actually added in a weekly process by the Treuhänder. The Treuhänder performs regular sample checks on the paper-based loan files. If input errors are detected, these are corrected within one week and the loans will be registered afterwards. Ten days after a payment has been missed, a letter is sent to the borrower. This is repeated in ten-day intervals. For loans above 50.000 euro a close down concept is being established. In case loans are in arrears for more than 60 days, an evaluation takes place if payments are likely within the next 30 days. Should this not be the case, loans are excluded from the cover pool. The aim of the issuer is to never have loans with 90+ days in arrears in the cover pool. The customer scoring has 18 classes, whereby everything higher than class 15 is considered defaulted. Loans in arrears for 90+ days go to class 16. When the contract is terminated the loans are classified as class 18 and after a write down of the loan (“Einzelwertberichtigung”) it is classified as class 17. For commercial real estate customers from classes 11 to 13 the bank performs special servicing. Once the loan moves to class 14 or lower it is internally considered to be a bad loan. For any loan worsening by three categories or more in a given year, the bank will perform a more detailed oversight (e.g. reducing overdraft). Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 12 Covered Bonds Appendix 4: Outstanding Liabilities Figure 14 List of Outstanding Public Covered Bonds ISIN DE000A1CSEP4 DE000A1KQ5U9 DE000A1K0GJ9 DE000A1MA5B5 DE000A1PGT98 DE000A1R08F4 DE000A1R1CB6 DE000A1TNKM3 DE000A1TNKN1 DE000A11P705 DE000A11QCA4 Currency EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR Size (m) 50 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 25 10 10 Interest type Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Coupon rate (%) 3.250 3.125 3.375 2.800 2.000 2.125 1.125 1.625 2.125 2.000 1.750 Maturity 30 Nov 16 03 May 16 04 Aug 21 15 Nov 21 01 Jun 22 08 Feb 23 30 Apr 20 07 Aug 20 07 Aug 23 05 Feb 24 11 Feb 22 Source: Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 13 Covered Bonds Appendix 5: Legal Framework Figure 15 Main Characteristics of German Legislative Pfandbriefe German Pfandbrief Act (January 2015) Issuers Supervision Financial institutions with license to issue Pfandbriefe German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin) Mortgage collateral Residential or commercial mortgages Geographical scope to EU / EEA, Switzerland, USA, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand or Singapore Up to 20% of the outstanding Pfandbriefe can be substitute assets Loan‐to‐value limits 60% LTV based on the mortgage lending value. for mortgage loans Public sector assets Public Sector Assets Geographical scope to EU / EEA For assets from USA, Canada, Japan and Switzerland, the debtor must be assigned to credit quality step 1 Up to 10% of the outstanding Pfandbriefe can be substitute assets Transfer of assets Integrated template, assets remain on issuer`s balance sheet Cover register Cover register is required for the respective cover pool Cover pool monitor Independent trustee appointed by BaFin Cover pool A dedicated cover pool administrator (Sachwalter) would take over the administrator management of the cover assets and outstanding liabilities post issuer default. He would be appointed by a court at the request of BaFin, at the latest upon the issuer’s insolvency Minimum OC 0% nominal value 2% stressed net preset value (NPV). The NPV is detailed in a specific net present value regulation (Barwertverordnung) including procedures, stress scenarios and risk models. The approach can be static or dynamic, or based on internal models. Treatment of swap Derivative counterparties rank pari-passu with the claims of the covered counterparties bond holders PBwLBA Pfandbriefbank with limited business activity (Pfandbriefbank mit beschränkter Geschäftstätigkeit). The cover pool constitutes an insolvency-free asset and continues to exist post issuer default as a PBwLBA to ensure the timely payment of the liability obligations. The PBwLBA would be managed by the cover pool administrator Source: Fitch Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 14 Covered Bonds The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings. ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTPS://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. IN ADDITION, RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCY'S PUBLIC WEB SITE AT WWW.FITCHRATINGS.COM. PUBLISHED RATINGS, CRITERIA, AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES. FITCH'S CODE OF CONDUCT, CONFIDENTIALITY, CONFLICTS OF INTEREST, AFFILIATE FIREWALL, COMPLIANCE, AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE. FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES. DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE. Copyright © 2015 by Fitch, Inc., Fitch Ratings Ltd. and its subsidiaries. 33 Whitehall Street, NY, NY 10004. Telephone: 1-800-753-4824, (212) 908-0500. Fax: (212) 480-4435. Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. In issuing and maintaining its ratings, Fitch relies on factual information it receives from issuers and underwriters and from other sources Fitch believes to be credible. Fitch conducts a reasonable investigation of the factual information relied upon by it in accordance with its ratings methodology, and obtains reasonable verification of that information from independent sources, to the extent such sources are available for a given security or in a given jurisdiction. The manner of Fitch’s factual investigation and the scope of the third-party verification it obtains will vary depending on the nature of the rated security and its issuer, the requirements and practices in the jurisdiction in which the rated security is offered and sold and/or the issuer is located, the availability and nature of relevant public information, access to the management of the issuer and its advisers, the availability of pre-existing third-party verifications such as audit reports, agreed-upon procedures letters, appraisals, actuarial reports, engineering reports, legal opinions and other reports provided by third parties, the availability of independent and competent third-party verification sources with respect to the particular security or in the particular jurisdiction of the issuer, and a variety of other factors. Users of Fitch’s ratings should understand that neither an enhanced factual investigation nor any third-party verification can ensure that all of the information Fitch relies on in connection with a rating will be accurate and complete. Ultimately, the issuer and its advisers are responsible for the accuracy of the information they provide to Fitch and to the market in offering documents and other reports. In issuing its ratings Fitch must rely on the work of experts, including independent auditors with respect to financial statements and attorneys with respect to legal and tax matters. Further, ratings are inherently forward-looking and embody assumptions and predictions about future events that by their nature cannot be verified as facts. As a result, despite any verification of current facts, ratings can be affected by future events or conditions that were not anticipated at the time a rating was issued or affirmed. The information in this report is provided “as is” without any representation or warranty of any kind. A Fitch rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a security. This opinion is based on established criteria and methodologies that Fitch is continuously evaluating and updating. Therefore, ratings are the collective work product of Fitch and no individual, or group of individuals, is solely responsible for a rating. The rating does not address the risk of loss due to risks other than credit risk, unless such risk is specifically mentioned. Fitch is not engaged in the offer or sale of any security. All Fitch reports have shared authorship. Individuals identified in a Fitch report were involved in, but are not solely responsible for, the opinions stated therein. The individuals are named for contact purposes only. A report providing a Fitch rating is neither a prospectus nor a substitute for the information assembled, verified and presented to investors by the issuer and its agents in connection with the sale of the securities. Ratings may be changed or withdrawn at anytime for any reason in the sole discretion of Fitch. Fitch does not provide investment advice of any sort. Ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Ratings do not comment on the adequacy of market price, the suitability of any security for a particular investor, or the tax-exempt nature or taxability of payments made in respect to any security. Fitch receives fees from issuers, insurers, guarantors, other obligors, and underwriters for rating securities. Such fees generally vary from US$1,000 to US$750,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent) per issue. In certain cases, Fitch will rate all or a number of issues issued by a particular issuer, or insured or guaranteed by a particular insurer or guarantor, for a single annual fee. Such fees are expected to vary from US$10,000 to US$1,500,000 (or the applicable currency equivalent). The assignment, publication, or dissemination of a rating by Fitch shall not constitute a consent by Fitch to use its name as an expert in connection with any registration statement filed under the United States securities laws, the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom, or the securities laws of any particular jurisdiction. Due to the relative efficiency of electronic publishing and distribution, Fitch research may be available to electronic subscribers up to three days earlier than to print subscribers. Sparkasse Pforzheim Calw September 2015 15