Monthly Haiti - Xplored

Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Monthly Haiti
Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Significant Events
Flashpoint & Outlook Summaries
February 1
Deadline for Dominicans of Haitian decent to request residency permit in the Dominican Republic.
Increasing Protests Threaten Stability
Despite the decline of the global price of crude
oil, the Haitian government has barely reduced
local fuel prices. The decision served to increase
critical revenues, but has also provoked protests
and demonstrations.
January 23
Provisional Electoral Council sworn in at the Supreme Court.
January 23
UNSC delegation arrives in Haiti for a three-day visit.
Haiti Rings In a Challenging 2015
The dissolution of Haiti’s parliament that has
allowed Martelly to rule by decree has raised
renewed concerns about the political and
economic stability of the country.
January 9
US District Court of New York declared that UN cannot be held accountable for criminal negligence for 2010 cholera
outbreak in Haiti.
Threat table
Key dates
Threat Average*
Geo-Political
K&R
Violent Crime
Civil Unrest
Petty Crime
RTA
Port-au-Prince
Moderate
Moderate
Low
High
High
High
High
Cite Soleil
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Delmas
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
Cap-Haitien
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
Threat scale:
Minimal
Low
Moderate
High
February 15 — Carnival begins
March 2015 — Launch of electoral process
July 2015: — First tour of legislative elections
(two-third of Senate and Lower Chamber)
October 25: — Second tour of legislative and
first tour of Presidential elections
Extreme
*Reviewed and re-graded accordingy as of January 9 - February 12, 2015
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Incident Mapping
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Current Assessment
Domestic Politics
President Michel Martelly began governing Haiti by decree on January 12 when parliament was dissolved after
last-minute negotiations to extend the terms of its members collapsed. In the two weeks that followed a new
prime minister, 20-member Cabinet and more than a dozen secretaries of state have been sworn in. Martelly
announced his cabinet choices on January 18, keeping the ministers of defense, foreign affairs, health, tourism,
education, and public works in their jobs, while appointing allies to the key positions of planning minister and
secretary of state for public security.
On January 14, PM Evans Paul, a former Port-au-Prince mayor, took office amid rising political uncertainty after
the dissolution of parliament. Paul’s nomination has not been confirmed by the Senate and Chamber of
Deputies. Based on decree from Martelly, Paul automatically began overseeing routine government operations.
Although Martelly publicly stated that he was committed to using his executive powers to build a broad-based
government, opponents have noted that only one opposition member made the cabinet list.
On January 23, the government installed the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) tasked with organizing longdelayed legislative and municipal elections, a key step toward holding elections in the coming months and
averting a constitutional crisis. The nine-member council has representatives from different sectors of society
and was sworn in at the Supreme Court shortly before a UN Security Council (UNSC) mission was due to arrive
in Haiti. The choice of members of the electoral body faced some controversy, although overall the council's
composition was met with broad approval. The representative for the women's social sector, Yolette Mengual,
faced opposition by critics who said she was too closely associated with Martelly.
On January 29, PM Paul held meetings with a delegation of UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH)
focused on the actions of the UN peacekeepers in Haiti in areas of security, political stability, support for public
governance and judiciary, the rule of and support for the next elections. The MINUSTAH promised to support the
CEP by providing funds as well as participate in the training of 5,000 electoral security personnel.
The opposition bloc in the country read former PM Lamothe’s resignation in December 2014 as a calculated
move to distance himself from the current administration. In order to run, Lamothe would need certification that
he has not misused government funds; something the opposition-controlled Senate would have been unlikely to
support. As such, many believe Lamothe stands to benefit from Martelly’s rule by decree. During this reporting
period, one of the ten remaining senators, seen as close to Martelly, Andris Riche, has made a request to the
relevant authorities to obtain the certification for Lamothe.
On February 10, a Haitian court ruled that former Senate President Simon Desras must be reinstated. Desras
was dismissed last month along with nine other senators when the term of a second tier of the 30-member
chamber expired along with that of the entire 99-member lower house of Deputies. The National Palace informed
Desras in January that his senatorial mandate would expired, but the lawmaker, who was elected in 2011 in a
special election, maintained that his mandate was for six years, not four. The court overruled the Palace, stating
that Desras’s term expires in September 2017.
The reinstatement brings the number of Senators to 11, meaning it will not change that fact that Martelly will
continue to rule by decree. However, Desras has said that he hopes his presence will reenergize the chamber,
which may not be able to pass any laws but can speak out on the current political crisis.
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Crime
Kidnapping once again saw a significant spike in the December 2014 and January 2015 period. Firearms
incidents have increased usually related to gang activity Belkou and Boston gangs ended a ceasefire in August
2014 which has seen increasingly violent confrontations in Cité Soleil.
On January 28, the Defense National Network of Human Rights (RNDDH) voiced concern and condemned the
increase in acts of violence, especially during the anti-government protests. These aggressions include looting
and destruction of vehicles in the city. At least five vehicles were razed on January 22 and bystanders
complained of having their mobile phones stolen.
Police and Law Enforcement
On January 23, 1,118 new officers were formally integrated into the HNP at a graduation ceremony held at the
Police Academy, including 113 women. These officers belong to the 25th class of this institution.
On January 27, the HNP and (MINUSTAH) conducted a joint operation to destroy 195 weapons and obsolete
ammunition seized during police operations at the Police Academy. Godson Orélus, General Director of the HNP
stressed that destruction was within the framework aimed at reducing violence, indicating that an estimated
250,000 illegal firearms were in circulation in Haiti including handguns and large caliber weapons.
Geo-Political
A UNSC delegation arrived in Haiti on January 24 in order to assess the implementation of Security Council
resolutions such as the strengthening and professional training of Haiti's police force. In 2014, the council
decided to extend the UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti for another year, but planned to halve the number of
multinational troops from 5,021 to 2,370 by June, while maintaining the police contingent. On January 25,
Justice Minister Pierre-Richard Casimir asked the UN delegation not to make the planned troop reductions until
Haiti's elections were over. Chilean UN ambassador Christian Barros Melet, however stated that it was too early
to announce any decision on the justice minister's request.
On January 9, a federal court in Manhattan dismissed a class-action lawsuit by victims of Haiti’s cholera
epidemic against the UN, deeming the organization immune from prosecution based on existing treaties. The
court’s decision is a serious setback for the victims of the cholera outbreak, and lawyers for the plaintiffs vowed
to appeal. “The court’s decision implies that the UN can operate with impunity,” said Beatrice Lindstrom, a
lawyer with the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti. Two other lawsuits filed by Haitian cholera victims
are still pending in US courts. The cholera epidemic, which has killed 8,700 people in Haiti since 2010, has been
traced to infected MINUSTAH peacekeepers that were then deployed to the country.
On February 2, thousands of Dominicans became stateless after the deadline expired for people born to
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
On February 2, thousands of Dominicans became stateless after the deadline expired for people born to
undocumented parents to apply for migrant permits. The deadline was created under a widely criticized law in
the Dominican Republic that eliminated birthright citizenship. The law was passed in 2004 as the result of a
longstanding political battle against illegal immigration from neighboring Haiti. The reform was enshrined as part
of a new constitution in 2010, and a court ruling in 2013 applied the new standard retroactively.
In 2014, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights stated that the law violated the American Convention on
Human Rights, but the Dominican Republic refused to recognize the ruling. The Dominican legislature did
however pass a measure mitigating the court ruling. The law allowed those who could provide proof of their birth
in Dominican territory to undocumented parents to obtain a migratory permit and apply for naturalization after
continuing to reside in the country for another two years. However, many of those affected faced obstacles in
obtaining and providing the necessary documentation.
It remains unclear exactly how many people failed to secure citizenship in the country of their birth by the
imposed deadline, but according to Dominican government figures only 5,345 people had applied to normalize
their status as of January 9, out of the 110,000 people estimated to qualify. Those who were not able to secure
permits have now become stateless and face deportation in the coming weeks and months.
Several demonstrations have been held to reject the law and more are likely in the coming weeks. The law will
have an important impact on Haiti as large numbers of Dominicans of Haitian descent are deported and arrive in
the country. The pace at which they arrive and their numbers will be important in determining the impact the law
will have on the national economy and security.
Humanitarian Issues
The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is requesting 22 million USD to meet the humanitarian needs of children and
women in Haiti in 2015. Despite a reduction in the reported number of cholera cases in Haiti in 2014, an
outbreak of the disease remains a threat in the country, including high number of infections in the most
populated West Department. Haiti was also hit in 2014 by an outbreak of Chikungunya fever, affecting some
64,695 persons, including 5,000 children.
UNICEF 2015 strategy for Haiti aims to ensure continuous support to the national cholera elimination plan, assist
six NGO partners and the Haitian government in delivering WASH rapid response and provide daily monitoring
in areas at risk during the dry season and rainy seasons starting in June 2015. UNICEF will continue to work
closely with Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Ministry of Health to undertake a new
vaccination campaign targeting 313,000 people. In addition, UNICEF aims to continue reinforcing the capacity of
the Institute of Social Welfare and Research to address the protection needs of children during emergency
situations at national departmental levels. UNICEF will also increase collaboration with the Ministry of Health to
retrofit 150 schools making them more disaster resistant, and providing schools disaster management training.
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Flashpoints
Increasing Protests Threaten Stability :
Despite the decline of the global price of crude oil, the Haitian government chose not to reduce local prices,
which has served to increase badly needed revenues. However, the decision has also provoked protests and
demonstrations. In response to protests, the government reduced the prices on January 3 from 4.75 USD a
gallon to 4.25 USD. However the transit union leading the protests demands further cuts, reflecting the low
global oil prices.
Students have also joined the protests and, during this reporting period, have grown increasingly active and
militant, especially on the Ethnology and General Business Administration campuses. On February 5, a student
was shot during a demonstration, allegedly by Haitian National Police (HNP), which is likely to cause further
protests and possibly violent clashes between students and security forces in the coming weeks. On February
6, at least 6,000 protestors marched through Port-au-Prince to demand lower gas prices and the resignation of
President Martelly. The protest in the capital city remained peaceful overall although police threw tear gas and
dispersed a crowd that had thrown trash and burning tires in the streets to block traffic.
The demonstrations have mostly been contained to Port-au-Prince, however they appear to be increasing in
number and strength, with police using tear gas on multiple occasions in order to break up demonstrations.
Protestors mounted barricades of burning tires at several key intersections in the capital.
Anti-government street protestors planned to shut down Haiti’s capital for two days starting February 9, forcing a
closure of schools, banks, public transportation and other institutions and urging people from all sectors to
participate. Without public transportation, the capital industrial district, home to several textile factories,
authorized employees to stay home. The Ministry of Communication made assurances that schools buses will
be circulating as usual on February 9, but many parents kept their children at home. In addition, the drivers’
union has threatened to disrupt Carnival celebrations, set to begin on February 15, if the price of fuel is not
further reduced.
On February 7, the newly-elected PM Evans Paul made an appeal for calm and vowed the government would
guarantee security of the population and maintain public order. He has also authorized the HNP to utilize all
appropriate measures to maintain security and take action against all perpetrators of violence. Haiti is the midst
of a political crisis after the prime minister was forced to resign and parliament was dissolved over the failure to
hold municipal and legislative elections.
Instability in the country will be further compounded by the elections and the fact that fuel prices are likely to
increase later in the year. Value of the HTG is falling and putting more socio economic pressures on families.
The drawdown of MINUSTAH is rumoured to be postponed until after elections. Nonetheless crime is increasing,
overall stability is uncertain and it is unlikely that HNP have the capacity to control the situation. Frequency and
intensity of protests is likely to spike, as disgruntled public lament poor governance and lackluster economic
growth in the country.
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Outlook
Haiti Rings In a Challenging 2015 :
After three years of fighting and delayed elections, President Michel Martelly and the skeptical opposition
members in the Senate failed to reach consensus on legislative and municipal elections timetable, driving Haiti
towards a political brink. Now, the impoverished Caribbean nation with a long history of political violence, coups
d’état, and dictatorships, is led by a president without any checks and balances. The political standoff that is
centered on the technicalities of elections has also resulted in a governance vacuum. The terms have expired for
all 99 members of the House of Representatives and 10 Senators. With two-thirds of its members’ absent, the
Senate cannot function. The new PM Paul Evans is still to be confirmed by the Parliament along with Martelly’s
new cabinet he announced late on the night of January 18.
Ruling now by decree, it’s unclear how Martelly will proceed to quell the political crisis. Lack of agreement with
the opposition on the framework of the CEP impeded parliamentary elections in 2011 and 2013. Martelly has
demanded a rewrite of the Constitution as a precondition for elections, though the Senate has staunchly refused
to yield to his demands. Martelly’s proposed amendment would allow consecutive terms for Haitian presidents
and pave way for him to extend his tenure to 10 years. With his new powers, Martelly could unilaterally decree
an electoral law, as he has repeatedly promised, which would expedite the overdue elections. However, the
opposition fears that Martelly could orchestrate new laws only to maintain his cronies in power. Disagreement
over electoral law blocked chances of the long-awaited elections on October 26, 2014, despite mounting
pressure from international leaders. UNSC delegation visited Haiti on January 23, voicing support for Martelly
and urging his administration to create the appropriate political and security conditions to hold credible
elections.
The Haitian economy is likely to be among the principal victims of the ongoing political gridlock. While the
extreme poverty is broadly declining over the past several years, the growth rate in 2014 fell from 4% to 2.8%, a
sign of the increasing toll of political instability on the economy. Martelly’s planned increase in fuel prices in
October 2014 was aimed to produce fiscal saving of at 1% of GDP during financial year 2015 and to raise fund
to pay off 1.5 billion USD of its debt to Venezuela. However, the strategy has backfired as violent protestors
across Port-au-Prince demand a 50% cut, reflecting the drop in international oil prices. The Haitian government
reluctantly lowered petrol and diesel prices, which will undercut projected revenue levels for 2015.
Martelly has extended conciliatory overtures, specifically the dismissal of PM Laurent Lamothe in December
2014, and installing Evans Paul instead, who has said publicly that he did not vote for Martelly in 2012 elections.
Martelly has also expressed inclination to form a consensus government, and introduced the CEP on January
23, but these concessions have failed to placate the opposition. Instead, the opposition has tactfully centered its
efforts on continuing anti-government protests, sending thousands of angry protestors to streets of Cap-Haitian
and Port-au-Prince. The opposition has expanded its objectives beyond merely establishing a unity government
with Martelly. By fueling a popular uprising, the opposition hopes to force Martelly’s departure, is demanding the
formation of a credible electoral council, and to establish a transitional government to organize next elections in
2015.
The installation of CEP is seen as a constructive step forward to holding the critical elections. However, political
gridlock and street violence is likely to continue as Martelly and the opposition iron out election laws and
framework for the legislative and municipal elections.
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Haiti Dissolves Parliament Allowing Martelly to Rule by Decree
Monthly Haiti
January 9 - February 12, 2015
Contact Information
For more information on how our services can support your
business in Haiti contact:
Email Pete Dordal, Jr.
Pete Dordal
Senior Vice President
GardaWorld Information Services
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