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Bangladesh Urban Earthquake Resilience Project
Dhaka Profile
and Earthquake
Risk Atlas
April 2014
Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative
Puno Building, 47 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman,
Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1101
T/F: +632 9279643; T: +632 4334074
www.emi-megacities.org
back of book cover
Dhaka Profile
and Earthquake
Risk Atlas
April 2014
Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative
Puno Building, 47 Kalayaan Avenue, Diliman,
Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines 1101
T/F: +632 9279643; T: +632 4334074
www.emi-megacities.org
EMI
DR. FOUAD BENDIMERAD, P.E., Project Team Leader
MR. GUY MORROW, S.E. Hazards,Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Practice Leader
DR. JAMILUR REZA CHOUDHURY, Senior Technical Advisor
DR. MEHEDI ANSARY, Deputy Team Leader, Dhaka
DR. BIJAN KHAZAI, GIS-ICT Practice Leader
MR. LEIGH LINGAD, GIS Specialist, EMI
DR. RAQUIB AHSAN, HVRA Local Investigator, Dhaka
MR. JEROME ZAYAS, Project Manager, EMI
DR. AHMADUL HASSAN, Project Coordinator, Dhaka
MS. JOYCE LYN MOLINA, Project Coordinator, EMI
DR. ISHRAT ISLAM, RSLUP Local Investigator, Dhaka
MR. KRISTOFFER JOHN DAKIS, GIS Specialist, EMI
MR. EUGENE ALLAN LANUZA, Junior GIS Analyst, EMI
MS. ANNE MARIE VALERA, Junior GIS Analyst, & Visual Designer, EMI
MR. PAOLO MICAEL VILLA, Junior GIS Analyst, EMI
MS. MARIVIC BARBA, GIS Research Assistant, EMI
MR. ZIKRUL HASAN FAHAD, Researcher, EMI, Dhaka
MS. MA. BIANCA PEREZ, Researcher & Visual Designer, EMI
MS. ISHTAR PADAO, Research Assistant, EMI
MS. NANCY TIRKEY, Research Intern, EMI
MS. KLATHEA SEVILLA,Visual Designer, EMI
Contributors
World Bank
MR. MARC FORNI, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank
MS. SWARNA KAZI, Disaster Risk Management Specialist, World Bank
MR. MD FARUK HOSSAIN, Operations Assistant, World Bank
© 2014
World Bank
and EMI
The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas is jointly owned by World Bank and EMI.
The use of the Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas, in part or in whole, is permitted and encouraged, with attribution to the World Bank and EMI.
This document is developed by EMI; the underlying concepts, methodologies, and overall design and structure are, and remain, intellectual property of EMI. The datasets are owned by their
respective originators. The analyses results, maps and figures are jointly owned by the World Bank and EMI.
Some of the photographs and images used were gathered from free online sources. These are cited and copyrighted and remain the intellectual property of their respective owners.
Cover and layout design: Annie Valera and Bianca Perez
Cover photo © Nasim Borno
4
ASTER GDEM
Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer
Global Digital Elevation Model
BBS
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
BNBC
Bangladesh National Building Code
BUERP
CAPRA Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment
CDMP
Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme
Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas
Acronyms
DAPDetailed Area Plan
DCC
Dhaka City Corporation
DFDauki Fault
DITDacca Improvement Trust
DMDP
Dhaka Metropolitan Development Planning
DNCC
Dhaka North City Corporation
DRR
Disaster Risk Reduction
DRRM Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
DSCC
Dhaka South City Corporation
EDRI
Earthquake Disaster Risk Index
EMI
Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative, Inc.
GeoDASH
GIS
Geo-spatial Open Data Sharing
GSB
Geological Survey of Bangladesh
HaZUS
Hazards United States
HVRA Hazard Vulnerability Risk Assessment
ICT
Information and Communications Technology
IEC
Information, Education and Communication
IFI
LIA
Impact Factor Index
Geographic Information Systems
Legal and Institutional Arrangement
M / MwMagnitude
METI
Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
MFMadhupur Fault
MMI
Modified Mercalli Intensity
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (United States of America)
NEHRP
Natural Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
NGA
Next Generation Attenuation
NDMC
National Disaster Management Council
NDMP
Network Data Management Protocol
PBF
Plate Boundary Fault
PEER
Program for Enhancement of Emergency Response
PGAPeak Ground Acceleration
PGD
Peak Ground Displacement
PGVPeak Ground Velocity
PRI
Physical Risk Index
RAJUK
Rajdhani Unnyan Kartipakkha
RCReinforced Concrete
RSLUP
Risk-Sensitive Land Use Planning
UNISDR
UDRI
Urban Disaster Resilience Index
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
URM
Un-Reinforced Masonry
5
The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas is part of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Urban Earthquake Resilience
Project (BUERP), a collaboration of the World Bank and EMI. This document is a compilation of physical & socioeconomic profiles, built environment, hazards, vulnerability & risks information, and maps of Dhaka. This is based on
the results and findings of the BUERP. The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas aims to help in providing essential
scientific data and information to improve capacity for earthquake resilience of Bangladesh.
The maps, charts, figures, and other data visualizations in this guidebook are based on various datasets shared to the
BUERP by the RAJUK and BBS Census of 2011. The original datasets were only modified in that the study area was
extracted from the larger Dhaka Metropolitan Development (DMDP) Area. No other modifications were made to the
data.
The earthquake exposure datasets, including some of the hazard and vulnerability information used to develop the risk
information (i.e. estimates of potential damage and loss) came from the reports and scientific studies published by the
Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), a project of the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief
of Bangladesh. For the purposes of BUERP, these datasets were analyzed using HazUS, CAPRA GIS and CRISIS2007
software packages to determine the potential damages and losses. The earthquake scenario was a postulated 7.5Mw
earthquake on the Madhupur Fault.
About this
Document
The 7.5Mw Madhupur Fault earthquake scenario was chosen among other scenarios due to its potential to deal the
worst possible damage to Dhaka. Damage impact assessments and projections provided in this study are meant to
inform various stakeholders as well as the population of Dhaka on the hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks caused by
earthquakes so that they can improve their planning and policy making processes, and be better prepared and informed.
It is important to note that the information provided in this document is not meant, and should not be interpreted, as
reflecting realities of the impacts of an actual event. Consequences from actual events may vary significantly from the
projections provided in this report.
The maps, findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of
the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. Standard scientific diligence and
care were taken to assure the accuracy of the data and soundness of the analyses. However, the findings and conclusions
cannot be guaranteed by the World Bank or EMI. Due sensitivity was given to boundaries, colors, text, and numbers
on all the maps in this work. However, the World Bank and EMI do not infer nor imply any judgment concerning the
legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The findings, results, maps, and
figures presented in this document are products of rigorous scientific methodologies; however, the impacts of an actual
earthquake event may vary significantly due to current limitations in science as well as in large uncertainties inherent in
the exposure data.
The following people and organizations are recognized for their valuable contributions, expert opinion,
and sound advice which made the Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas possible:
• The RAJUK organization, and particularly the Chairman Eng. Md. Nurul Huda, Dr. KZ Hussain Taufiq,
Planning Director, and Eng. Abdul Latif Helaly, Executive Engineer for sharing the land use GIS data to
BUERP;
• Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, for sharing the BBS Census of 2012 ;
• The CDMP for sharing the following reports:
Acknowledgments
(1) Vulnerability Assessment Report of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Area, (2) Seismic Hazard Map for Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Area,
(3) Time Predictable Fault Modeling of Bangladesh,
(4) Engineering Geological Mapping of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Area, (5) Risk Assessment Report of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Area.
The BUERP is prepared under the oversight of Advisory Committee and the input from the Scientific
Consortium members. The inputs from the members of both committees are highly appreciated. Inputs
from the members of the GIS and HVRA focus groups through the data validation and workshops are
also recognized.
Acknowledgement is also due to the World Bank Country Office in Dhaka for providing facilities and
logistic arrangements.
6
It is intended to provide a scientific and systematized presentation of the results and key
findings of the Bangladesh Urban Earthquake Resilience Project (BUERP) by compiling
physical, demographic, and socio-economic data with risk information and analyses, then,
showing them through maps, tables, and charts. The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk
Atlas translates these technical information into a single, straight forward, and easy-tounderstand presentation. This information could be utilized to provide the scientific
foundation in improving capacity for earthquake resilience of Bangladesh.
What is the Purpose of the
Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas?
Who should read this document?
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The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas is for everyone and can be used by
anyone. Experts, professionals, and specialists in the field of Hazard Vulnerability Risk
Assessment (HVRA) as well as practitioners and researchers in Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management (DRRM) and its related fields can find relevant technical and scientific
information. Stakeholders such as government officials, community leaders and the
private sectors involved in and have interests in urban DRRM can use information in this
h
document for educational, communication, and planning purposes.
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How will this document benefit the reader?
The readers of this document will be informed about the earthquake hazard, identify
physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities and acquire better knowledge of the
earthquake risks to Dhaka.
The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas would be able to provide technical and
scientific information for the formulation of risk reduction and management strategies
and plans. It could also provide foundation for policy making and planning for risksensitive growth and development.
7
CChapter
hapter
1
2
Chapter
Dhaka
Profile
Earthquake
Hazards
Chapter
3
Earthquake
Vulnerability
and Risk
Analysis
Chapter
Chapter
14
Urban Disaster
Risk Index
8
Acronyms.............................................................................................................................. 5
Acknowledgements............................................................................................................ 6
Table of Contents............................................................................................................... 8
Definition of Terms ............................................................................................................ 9
Introduction....................................................................................................................... 11
Chapter 1: Dhaka Profile................................................................................................. 13
Chapter 2: Earthquake Hazards ....................................................................................48
Chapter 3: Earthquake Vulnerability and Risk Analysis ............................................61
Chapter 4: Urban Disaster Risk Index.........................................................................75
References..........................................................................................................................81
Photo Credits...................................................................................................................82
Background
Physical and Socio-economic
Profile Components
• Administrative Boundaries
• Physical
• Socio-demographic
• Built Environment
Bangladesh Tectonics
Historical Seismic Activity
Modeled Sources
Soil Classification
Ground Motion
Liquefaction
Vulnerability Definition
Physical Vulnerability
• Building Exposure
• Building Losses
Social Vulnerability
• Fatalities
• Economic and Property
Losses
• Water Pipelines
Risk Definition
Physical Risk Indicators
Socio-Economic Impact Factors
Physical Risk Index
Impact Risk Index
Urban Disaster Risk Index
What’s
Inside
Building Vulnerability
Combined characteristics of a building, including hazard exposure, that make it susceptible to the impacts of hazards.*
Built Environment
It is the human-made space in which people live, work, and recreate on a day-to-day basis. It includes the buildings and spaces we create or
modify. It can extend overhead in the form of electric transmission lines and underground in the form landfills. †
Definition
of Terms
Capacity
The combination of all the strengths, attributes and resources available within a community, society or organization that can be used to achieve
agreed goals. *
Critical Facility
Critical facilities are facilities needed for emergency response such as hospitals, fire stations, emergency centers, police stations, certain public
buildings that house functions needed by the public, data centers, and powerplant. *
Earthquake
Earthquake is a term used to describe both sudden slip on a fault, and the resulting ground shaking and radiated seismic energy caused by the slip,
or by volcanic or magmatic activity, or other sudden stress changes in the earth. ‡
Exposure
The totality of assets (i.e., people, property, infrastructure, cultural heritage, natural and biological systems, services, institutions, or other material
elements) present in hazard zones that are, thereby, subject to potential losses. *
Fault
A fault is a fracture along which the blocks of crust on either side have moved relative to one another parallel to the fracture. ‡
Ground Motion
Ground motion is the movement of the earth’s surface from earthquakes or explosions. Ground motion is produced by waves that are generated
by sudden slip on a fault or sudden pressure at the explosive source and travel through the earth and along its surface. ‡
Hazard
A dangerous natural phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property
damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage.*
High loss facility
High loss facilities are facilities whose failure carries a large potential for loss of life, typically they include gas stations and other industrial facilities
which contain hazardous materials, schools, markets, malls, hotels and high occupancy buildings, hospitals, and assembly halls such as churches,
sports arenas, and others. *
Intensity
Intensity measures the strength of shaking produced by the earthquake at a certain location. Intensity is determined from effects on people,
human structures, and the natural environment. ‡
Liquefaction
A process by which water-saturated sediment temporarily loses strength and acts as a fluid. This effect can be caused by earthquake shaking. ‡
* Themes and Issues in Disaster Risk Reduction, A schema for the categorization of DRR knowledge and action, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UNISDR), November 2011
† Roof, K., & Ngozi, O. (2008, July/August). Public Health: Seattle and King County’s Push for the Built Environment. Retrieved October 14, 2013, from Center for Disease
Control and Prevention: http://www.cdc.gov/nceh/ehs/Docs/JEH/2008/july-aug_w_case_studies/JEH_Jul-Aug_08_Seattle.pdf
‡ United States Geological Survey. (2012, July 18). Retrieved October 14, 2013, from Earthquake Glossary: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/
9
Definition
of Terms
Magnitude
Magnitude measures the energy released at the source of the earthquake. Magnitude is determined from measurements on seismographs. ‡
Peak ground acceleration
Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is a measure of earthquake acceleration on the ground and an important input parameter for earthquake
engineering. Unlike the Richter and moment magnitude scales, it is not a measure of the total energy (magnitude, or size) of an earthquake,
but rather of how hard the earth shakes in a given geographic area (the intensity). PGA is expressed as a percent of the acceleration due to
gravity (g) which is 980 cm/sec/sec. ††
Resilience
The ability of a community, society, institution, or individual to cope and recover from the negative impact of hazardous events. *
Risk
The probability (or likelihood) of any exposed asset to sustain a loss should an event happen. *
Risk Identification & Assessment
A structured analytical process designed to determine the nature and extent of risk by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing
conditions of vulnerability that, together, could potentially harm exposed people, property, services, livelihoods and the environment on which
they depend. *
Seismicity
Seismicity refers to the geographic and historical distribution of earthquakes. ‡
Social Impacts
Consequences of a hazardous event on the physical, economic and psychological well-being of individuals and on the functioning of a community.
Features of a social system that help to avoid losses and maintain or recover satisfying living conditions after a shock. *
Social Vulnerability
The characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the
impact of a natural hazard. ‡‡
Soil amplification:
Growth in the amplitude of earthquakes when seismic waves pass from rock into less rigid material such as soil. §
Tectonic
Tectonic refers to rock-deforming processes and resulting structures that occur over large sections of the lithosphere. ‡
Vulnerability
The characteristics and circumstances of an exposed asset that make it susceptible to the damaging effects of a hazard. Sometimes also identified
with “Fragility” of an asset. *
Vulnerable Population
The segments of the population which exhibit a greater vulnerability due to their socio-economic conditions or health limitations.*
* Themes and Issues in Disaster Risk Reduction, A schema for the categorization of DRR knowledge and action, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
(UNISDR), November 2011
‡ United States Geological Survey. (2012, July 18). Retrieved October 14, 2013, from Earthquake Glossary: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/glossary/
§ Glossary of seismological terms. (n.d.). Retrieved October 14, 2013, from Natural Resources Canada: http://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/info-gen/glossa-eng.php
†† National Disaster Management Authority, Government of India (2013, September 15). Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Building Types in India, Final Report Executive
Summary. Retrieved January 13, 2014, from 1ExecutiveSummaryReport.pdf
‡‡ Wisner, Benjamin, ed. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters. Psychology Press, 2004
10
Following the EMI model of mainstreaming, The Bangladesh Urban
Earthquake Resilience Project (BUERP) aims to provide the core
elements in developing the earthquake risk reduction and management
plan for Dhaka. In conjunction with the Dhaka Profile and Earthquake
Risk Atlas, BUERP developed supplementary components that address
strategic elements in the understanding of the risk profiles and disaster
risk management parameters governing the country as well as Dhaka.
1
2
3
4
Earthquake impacts are among the most devastating disasters, claiming
large numbers of casualties, social trauma, and tremendous damage to
physical property. Recent history shows how destructive earthquakes are.
A few examples include the 7.2 magnitude earthquake on 15 October
2013 in Bohol in Central Philippines, claiming over 223 lives, displacing
74,000 families and causing over US$ 53 Million in damages ; in February
2011, the 6.3 magnitude earthquake in Christchurch in New Zealand
killed about 200 people and causing about US$ 12 billion in rebuilding
costs ; in March 2011 a 9 magnitude earthquake and its impacts killed
almost 16,000 people in Japan and the cost of reconstruction to the
government alone amount to about 25 trillion yen (US$ 266 billion),
according to The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan .
Figure 2. EMI’s model for mainstreaming DRR
These elements are, namely: Hazards,Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment
(HVRA); Legal and Institutional Arrangements (LIA); Risk-Sensitive Land
Use Planning (RSLUP); GIS Road Map; and Information, Education, and
Communication (IEC) Action Plan.
Figure 1. Selected devastating earthquakes in the last ten years
Dhaka is far from being immune to the threats of earthquakes and its
impacts. As will be discussed in Chapter 2 of this Atlas, more than a
dozen earthquakes have impacted Bangladesh and Dhaka as far back
as recorded history shows. These earthquakes originate from places
as far as Nepal and North India to the west, Bhutan to the north, and
Myanmar to the east. In Chapter 2, the possible sources of earthquakes
and the hazards they entail are illustrated. However, their impacts on the
population, society, and physical structures in Bangladesh are difficult to
predict because there is no living memory of a major earthquake’s effects
to the country, as well as very little scientific data on the characteristics
and impacts of these events are available.
The government of Bangladesh and the World Bank are aware of
the threats earthquakes pose to the country. There are disaster risk
management projects in Bangladesh to help improve its resilience
to earthquakes. One notable project is the Comprehensive Disaster
Management Plan (CDMP) undertaken by the Ministry of Disaster
Management and Relief (MoDMR) with the support of various
donors. Nonetheless, an understanding of earthquake risk impact and
corresponding strategies, policies and action plans for preparedness,
response, and mitigation are still not fully formulated. At the same time, a
comprehensive plan for reducing earthquake risk to Dhaka has not been
developed.
The World Bank and EMI , together with the Government of Bangladesh
collaborated to form the Bangladesh Urban Earthquake Resilience
Project (BUERP). BUERP takes Dhaka as the pilot case for the reduction
of earthquake risk in Bangladesh. The growth and development of
Dhaka is critical to the well-being of Bangladesh. It is urgent to put in
place development control processes and risk-sensitive and sustainable
development mechanisms that can reverse the trend of increasing
vulnerability in the city and buildresilience in the long term. Changing
mindsets and practice amongst those with a stake in the ongoing
development of Dhaka can potentially have much broader impact in
demonstrating risk-sensitive development nationwide.
Figure 3. BUERP core elements
EMI, (2014). 15 October 2013 Bohol, Philippines Earthquake Technical Report. February 2014.
http://www.emi-megacities.org/
2
IMF, as cited by Rotherham, F. 5 Oct 2011. “Quake Rebuild will eat into GDP.” http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/
rebuilding-christchurch/4984173/Quake-rebuild-will-eat-into-GDP. Accessed 6 December 2013.
3
National Police Agency of Japan. http://www.npa.go.jp/archive/keibi/biki/higaijokyo_e.pdf. Accessed 6 December 2013.
4
Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Great East Japan Earthquake - two years on. http://www.mofa.go.jp/j_info/visit/
incidents/two_years.html.Accessed 18 February 2014.
5
The World Bank and EMI collaborated on September 2012, contract no. 7164276
1
5
Introduction
11
The HVRA is the scientific foundation of Disaster Risk Management
(DRM). It identifies, measures, and evaluates the outcomes resulting from
natural, technological, and other hazards in order to anticipate potential
damages and losses. The HVRA and the Dhaka Earthquake Risk Atlas are
closely interrelated. The HVRA provides the scientific analyses which are
then graphically presented in the Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas
in such a way that is both scientifically sound and visually understandable
to the general public.
Figure 6. Land use map of the southern section of Dhaka.
Figure 4. A step in the HVR Assessment is spatially distributing building fragility analyses.
BUERP collected and compiled large amounts of data, in terms of
hazard, socio-demographic, built environment, vulnerability andresilience.
To help disseminate and train selected personnel in Dhaka, a GIS-ICT
Data Sharing Platform Road Map is also developed.
The Legal and Institutional Arrangements (LIA) element of the BUERP
helps the government officials and personnel and other stakeholders
understand the features of the legal and institutional environment that
supports or otherwise hinders urban DRM. This understanding is
achieved through a participatory process and is a requisite to effective and
efficient addressing of disaster risk at the local level. The LIA investigates
policies, legal and institutional frameworks; organizational mapping and
network analysis and legal and institutional gaps and functional overlaps.
Figure 7. GeoDASH platform for sharing GIS data for earthquake disaster risk reduction in Dhaka
The Data sharing Road Map, nicknamed “GeoDASH” by the
stakeholders, aims to provide the technology and organizational
framework for increasing access to geospatial data to various
stakeholders involved in the disaster risk management of Dhaka.
GeoDASH is a three-pillar structure (organizational, technical, and
capacity building) founded on Bangladesh legal directives and ICT-related
programs for data sharing.
The Information, Education, and Communication component of
BUERP aims to bring the earthquakeresilience program closer to the
stakeholders. It produced media including posters and brochures that
explains the hazards and provides points on how to improve resilience.
Figure 5. Institutional network analysis. Source: LIA Guidebook, 2014
The Risk Sensitive Land Use Plan (RSLUP) element of BUERP analyses
the current planning system in Dhaka and provides methodologies for
mainstreaming the disaster risk elements into effective city-level land
use planning. The RSLUP methodologies add two new considerations
to the conventional approach to land use planning: a) disaster risk
reduction parameters and objectives and b) integration through formal
government activities.
Figure 8. A poster from the Infomation, Communication, and Education component of BUERP
Introduction
12
The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas is one of the tools that will
help support the decision making for guiding policies aimed at mitigating
the impact of earthquake hazards through structural and
non-structural vulnerability reduction measures. It also helps serve as
one of the foundations for a government-owned multi-year participatory
process focused on mainstreaming and improving institutional capacity
to increase earthquake resilience at the national level.
1
Chapter
Dhaka
Profile
Bangladesh is home to almost 150 million people, living in a land
area of 147,570 square kilometers1. Bangladesh is in South Asia, to
the north of the Bay of Bengal, bounded by India to the west and
shares a boundary with Myanmar to the east. It is mostly a delta
plain of the Ganges -Brahmaputra-Megna River systems.
Dhaka Profile
Bangladesh’s unique geology exposes its peoples to a multitude
of hazards. Recognizing this, the government of Bangladesh has
established a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) system headed by
the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC)2 as can be
seen in Figure 9 below.
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Banani Lake
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Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) is often
viewed through worst-case scenarios. In Bangladesh, Dhaka is an
important city with a large population (about 6.54 million as of
2011) and is a prime city in Bangladesh. It is also the capital city.
Thus, it is important to understand earthquake impacts to Dhaka
and increase its resilience.
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BBS 2011
BUERP, 2014. Legal and Institutional Arrangements Framework Guidebook. EMI and World Bank.
1
2
14
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Figure 9. Bangladesh DRM system
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Dhanmodi Lake
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15
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka’s history is typically divided into five
political periods: the Pre-Mughal, Mughal, British,
Pakistani, and Post-Independence Periods.
These periods have influenced the physical
infrastructure and urban environment of Dhaka.
As such, the understanding of its risk and
vulnerability to earthquakes can be derived from
the city’s characteristics that remain from these
historical periods, as well as existing conditions.
Figure 10. Pre-Mughal Dhaka.Source: Banglapedia
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka dates back to the 7th century A.D. Since
then, Dhaka has grown from a small settlement
to a large megacity ranking 8th largest in the
world3. In the Pre-Mughal time, Dhaka was a
small Hindu trading center confined between
the Dholai Khal and the Buringanga River until
1608 (see Figure 10).
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In the 16th Century, Dhaka was in the regime
of the Thana or a military outpost having a
population of only 3,000. It became a capital
city of Bengal in 1610 which triggered its rapid
development4. In 1679, the Governor of Bengal,
Islam Khan, established the “Lalbagh Fort.”5 This
provided impetus for a “New Town” to grow
outside the Mughal core (see Figure 11). The
Mughal Period flourished until 1707, when the
Mughal Empire fell.
Dhaka becomes
capital of Bengal.
7th Century
Pre-Mughal
1610
Mughal
Figure 12. Dhaka in 1859. Source: Banglapedia.
4
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Dhanmodi Lake
Figure 13. Dhaka in 1924. Source: Banglapedia.
1679
World Bank, 2010. Country Assistance Strategy for the People’s Republic of Bangladesh for the Period FY11-14.
Chauduri, S. 1975. Trade and Commercial Organization in Bengal (1650 - 1720).
5
Akramuzzaman, M. 1966. Morphological Study of the New Town of Dacca City.
6
Ahsan, 1991. Changing Pattern of the Commercial Area of the Dhaka City.
7
Ahmed, 1986. Dacca: A Study in Urban History and Development.
3
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The British Crown gains
control of Dhaka
from the British East India Co.
Dhaka modernizes.
er
Dhaka thrives as a
trading center
between Dholai Khal
and the Buriganga.
Banani Lake
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Lalbagh Fort is
established.
“New Town”
grows outside
the Mughal core.
Source: Nilufar, 1997.
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Bu
With the fall of the Mughal Empire, Dhaka faced
a serious decline in the economy, population,
and administrative importance. Dhaka’s urban
area contracted in size. Commercial activities
were held in the enclosure of Chowk Bazaar
and the old fort6,7. Following the Sepoy Mutiny
in 1857, the British Crown took direct control
of the region from the British East India
Company.(see Figure 12). Consequently, the
Dhaka Municipal Committee was established
in 1864. The British brought modernization to
Dhaka. The transportation systems allowed for
further expansion (see Figure 13).
Figure 11. Global integration core of pre-Mughal and Mughal Dhaka.
1707
Dhaka
Municipal
Committee is
established.
Mughal Empire falls.
Economy declines.
1857 1864
British
Figure 14. Land use maps of Dhaka (1700 - 1962). Source: R. Ahsan.
Dhaka Profile
The partitioning of India in 1947 advanced
Dhaka as the provincial capital of then East
Pakistan. The overall expansion of the city
began in the same year8. Administrative,
commercial and residential needs caused an
influx of people and resulted in a massive
growth of the city (see Figure 14). The
population increased from 335, 925 in 1951
to 556, 712 in 1961, registering an increase of
65.7% in 10 years. The city expanded mainly
towards the north.
With the independence of Bangladesh in 1971,
Dhaka became the national capital and was
divided into 50 wards. Dhaka’s growth was
impressive - in fact, Chowdhury and Faruqui
(1991) commented that, “The growth of Dhaka
city in the 50’s could very well be termed as
slow and gradual, in the 60’s the pace picked
up and in the period after the emergence of
Bangladesh it could be said to be phenomenal.”9
in 1978, Dhaka was awarded the status of
Corporation and was renamed to Dhaka City
Corporation. The city continues to grow with
its burgeoning population (see Figure 15). In
2011 the government divided it into Dhaka
North City Corporation (DNCC) and Dhaka
South City Corporation (DSCC) through Local
Government Amendment Act 2011. The DNCC
consists of 37 wards while the DSCC consists
of 54 wards.
Banani Lake
Gulshan Lake
Figure 15. Modern-day Dhaka. Souce: RAJUK, 2010.
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The administrative boundary map is used as the base map of the BUERP. This map is ward-wise; the wards being the smallest
administrative unit in Dhaka City with respect to emergency planning, preparedness, and policy-making.
It is important to consider the source of the ward boundary data - different sources sometimes have different boundary
geometries and this will affect consistensies with analyses. The BUERP uses RAJUK delineated boundaries.
Dhaka becomes capital of an
independent Bangladesh.
Dhaka is divided into 50
wards.
Lake
Dhaka becomes
capital of
East Pakistan.
1947
Dhaka reaches
half a million
people.
1961
Pakistani
Dhaka becomes
Dhaka City
Corporation.
1971
1978
8
9
Local Govermnent
Act of 2011 is
enacted. Dhaka City
Corporation is divided
into Dhaka North
City Corporation and
Dhaka South City
Corporation.
Post-Independence
2011
Huq, 1991. Transport Planning for Dhaka City.
Chowdhury A.M. & S. Faruqui. 1991. Physical Growth of Dhaka.
17
Dhaka Profile
18
19
Dhaka Profile
Bangladesh is situated in the largest and most active deltas of the
world formed by the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river
system. Topographically, it is mostly flat and
low-lying with a slightly higher elevation in the center and
northwestern region. Tertiary hills in the eastern region is formed
because of the folding that is associated with the Burma platelet.
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka is located at the central part of the country with a
maximum elevation of 10 meters above sea level. It is crossed by
three rivers making it entirely made up of recent alluvial and deltaic
deposits.
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Figure 16. Topography of Dhaka and environs. Souces: ASTER GDEM (a product of METI and NASA); Google Maps.
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The physical relief, terrain and the location of streams provide
a context of the natural landscape of Dhaka. In the case of
Dhaka, especially where there are numerous streams and water
bodies, the physical profile helps provide the reader a geographic
orientational tool to navigate the city. This supplements the built
enviroment maps in such aim.
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The topographic map shows elevation at 10- and 5- meter contour
elevations, while the hydography map shows the location of water
bodies in Dhaka. The elevation data was extracted from ASTER
GDEM data, while the hydrography data was shared to BUERP
courtesy of RAJUK.
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Dhanmodi Lake
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Dhaka Profile
DRAFT FOR REVIEW | NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OR CITATION
ASTER GDEM (a product of METI and NASA)
21
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
ASTER GDEM (a product of METI and NASA)
22
22
surface
water
area
(km2)
23
6.81 5.39
DNCC
Dhaka
1.43
DSCC
23
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka’s social conditions and situations affect how the population is
impacted and how they react and/or anticipate hazards.
It is thus important to understand the social conditions of Dhaka to
understand its risks and vulnerabilities to earthquakes. An indispensable
instrument in understanding social conditions is the census – it provides
valuable insights to the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations in the
city. In this regard the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics shared the Dhaka
census results of 2011 to the BUERP.
Dhaka Profile
Census data range is vast in terms of the data categories that are
collected. The BBS census gathers data that includes age groups and
gender distribution, household, tenure, literacy, religious affiliation,
marital status, disabilities, access to facilities, and many others. Not all
of these datasets are relevant for understanding earthquake impact and
vulnerability in Dhaka. Hence, only those census datasets which are
relevant to vulnerability and risk assessment were selected and analyzed
for the Hazards,Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment component of the
BUERP.
Total population
Population density
Female to male ratio at ages 3 – 29 and not attending school
Population age 5 and below
Population age 65 and above
Population with disabilities
Literacy rates of the population
Access to potable water from tap
Access to potable water from tube wells
Access to non-water sealed sanitaion
Population with electrical connection
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
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This section shows the distribution of the Dhaka population at the ward
level with respect to:
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Dhanmodi Lake
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Dhaka Profile
Lake
Gulshan Lake
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population
6,539,704
Dhaka
DNCC
DSCC
3,741,220 2,798,484
25
Dhaka Profile
population per km2
47,954.18
Dhaka
DNCC
DSCC
39,056.62 68,954.73
26
female
to
male
ratio
80% 83%
DNCC
Dhaka
79%
DSCC
27
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
28
7.6% 7.8%
DNCC
7.3%
DSCC
Dhaka
ages
5 and
younger
ages
65 and
older
2.4% 2.3%
DNCC
Dhaka
2.5%
DSCC
29
Dhaka Profile
DNCC
0.7%
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka
DSCC
30
0.8% 0.8%
disabled
population
Dhaka Profile
5
5
literacy
rate
65.4% 63.8%
DNCC
Dhaka
67.5%
DSCC
31
Dhaka Profile
population
with access
to tap water
32
85.9% 85.9%
DNCC
Dhaka
DSCC
85.9%
33
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
population
with access
to non-water
sealed sanitation
34
34.6% 36.2%
DNCC
Dhaka
DSCC
32.4%
Dhaka Profile
population
with electricty
connection
98.6% 98.2%
DNCC
Dhaka
DSCC
99.1%
35
Dhaka Profile
During the Mughal Period the extent of Dhaka
grew gradually mainly to the west following the
bank of river Buriganga, encompassing the preMughal core. Some mosques, mausoleums, and
forts built during the Mughal Period still exist.
Figure (19) shows the Lalbagh Fort. Dhaka grew
to approximately 6 square kilometers during the
Mughal Period.
Figure 17. Dakeshwari Temple. Wikimedia Commons. Figure 18. Binat Bibi Mosque. Wikimedia Commons.
Figure 19. Lalbagh Fort. Raquib Ahsan.
Buildings with colonial architecture were built
in the new town (figure 20). During this period
a number of steel bridges were constructed to
develop rail and road links (figures 21 - 22). Large
hospitals were established during this period.
Many structures of this period are still being used,
such as the Mitford Hospital (figure 23) and the
building shown on figure 24.
Figure 21. Tongi Bridge on Turag River, built in 1885. Source: Old Dhaka, World Celebrity Pictures.
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Figure 22. Steel Bridge on Dholai Khal, built in 1904. Source: Old Dhaka, World Celebrity Pictures.
Figure 23. Mitford Hospital, (1904). Source: Old Dhaka, World Celebrity Pictures.
Pre-Mughal
36
Dhanmodi Lake
Dhaka modernizes under
British colonial rule. The city
gets metal roads, open spaces.
Lalbagh Fort is
established. Dhaka
grows west-ward
following the banks
of the Buriganga.
Mughal Empire falls.
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7th Century
Modern water system
is installed.
City gets electricity.
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Dhaka is a trading post
of approximately 1.6
sq.km. It has irregular
road patterns.
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Figure 24. Residential building from the British Period.
Source: Old Dhaka, World Celebrity Pictures
Dhaka becomes
capital of Bengal.
1610
Mughal
1679
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Under the British colonial rule Dhaka underwent
a vast physical renewal. From a medieval township
Dhaka transformed into a modern city with
metalled roads, open spaces, street lights and
water supply. A modern water supply system was
introduced in 1874 and electricity in 1878. The
state railway was opened in 1885 - 1886. Building
of a new town started beyond the railroad in
Ranma. An irregular road pattern was prevalent
to the south in the historic core; while the grid
pattern of roads was introduced in the city for the
first time in 1885 in Wari and Gandaria as planned
residential areas. Hazaribagh and Nawabganj areas
in the western quarter of the city were developed
in the same period as industrial areas.10
Figure 20. Ahsan Manjil. Raquib Ahsan.
1707
1857 1874-78
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Pre-Mughal Dhaka was approximately 1.6 square
kilometers until 1608. Only few temples and
mosques remain standing from this period, such
as the Dhakeswari Temple from the 12th century
(figure 17) and the Binat Bibi Mosque from 1454
(figure 18).
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State Railway opens.
A new town gets
built in Ranma.
Wari and Gandaria
is planned as
residential areas.
Grid road pattern is
introduced.
Western quarter
is developed as
industrial area
1885 - 86
British
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Figure 25. Four-storied URM buildings of Azimpur Quarters. Source: Nilufar.
Figure 26. 11-storied WAPDA building (1963). Source: Raquib Ahsan.
Figure 27. Dhaka skyline. Source: Wikipedia.
In the Post-independence Period, Dhaka has over 326,000 buildings,
according to a CDMP study in 200911. The same study states
that there are 600 hospitals, 2,737 schools, 62 police stations,
and 18 emergency response agency offices in the Dhaka City
Corporation area. The lifeline inventory in Dhaka includes over
1,270 kilometers of highway road, 10 highway bridges, and 2,582
kilometers of potable water, waste water, and gas pipelines. Lately,
a number of new bridges and flyovers have been constructed.
Banani Lake
Figure 29. A school building.
Raquib Ahsan.
Gulshan Lake
Dhaka Profile
The colonial influence of the Pakistani Period on Dhaka could
not be claimed as substantial, compared to many colonial cities in
India. Beginning in 1947, the city grew massively. Dhanmondi area,
as previously adorned with paddy fields, lying towards the northwest fringe of Dhaka, was turned into a residential area after 1955.
The Mirpur Road formed an axis and high lands on either side
were occupied up to Mohammadpur and Mirpur. The high land
available in north-east and north-west of Ranma within different
pockets between the previously developed areas like Purana Paltan
to Naya Paltan, Eskaton to Mogbazaar, Siddheswari and Kakrail to
Kamlapur through Razarbagh and Santinager, Segun Bagicha - all
came to be occupied mostly by residential use. All these happened
without any formal planning. Then the government founded the
Dacca Improvement Trust (DIT) in 1956 and started planning in
a piecemeal manner: the industrial district in Tejgaon, the New
Market in Azimpur, staff housing in Motijheel, and high class
residential area in Dhanmondi. However, at this stage, there was
no plan for the future growth. Meanwhile, Dhaka was becoming
more and more unmanageable. Eventually a Master Plan was
prepared by consultants on behalf of DIT. The DIT developed the
Gulshan model town in 1961, Banani in 1964, Uttara in 1965, and
Baridhara in 1972. In the mid 1960s the railway line was shifted
eastward as necessitated by development thrusts. The railway
track was transformed into a wide road connecting the new
extension and Mughal Dhaka.
Gulshan Lake
Figure 28. 171m high City Center.
Raquib Ahsan.
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Dhanmondi converts
to residential area.
Mirpur Road triggers
growth Pockets
of undeveloped
areas northeast and
northwest of Ranma
becomes filled with
residential area.
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Figure 30. A madrasah. Raquib
Ahsan.
Figure 32. A flyover. Raquib Ahsan.
Dacca Improvement Trust
(DIT) founded. City planning
begins piecemeal for industrial,
commercial, and housing areas.
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Master Plan
for Dhaka is
developed.
Dhaka
becomes
capital of
East
gets connected.
Pakistan.
1947
Figure 31. Buriganga Bridge. Raquib Ahsan.
1955 1956
Pakistani
Baridhara
developed.
Banani
developed.
Gulshan
developed.
1959 1961
Uttara
developed.
Mughal
Dhaka
and new
extesion
1964 1965
Dhaka Metropolitan
Area Integrated
Urban Development
Project is developed.
1972
1981
Post-Independence
Dhaka Metropolitan
Development Plan
(DMDP) is developed.
1995
37
Dhaka Profile
road network in km
2,426.2
Dhaka
243.3 2,185.8
major roads
DNCC
minor roads
DSCC
1,524.9 904.3
128.1 major roads 115.3
1,396.8 minor roads 789.1
38
39
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
40
1,138 649
DNCC
489
DSCC
Dhaka
potable
water
pipelines
(in km)
Dhaka Profile
sewerage
network
(in km)
220.1 107.3
DNCC
Dhaka
DSCC
112.9
41
Dhaka Profile
42
598.3 310.4
DNCC
287.9
DSCC
Dhaka
natural gas
pipelines
(in km)
Dhaka Profile
Additional footprints digitized from paper maps from DNCC and DSCC
43
Dhaka Profile
44
building density per km2
2,772.7
2,411.6 3,625.1
Dhaka
DNCC
DSCC
45
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
jhupri households
36,238
46
8,119
Dhaka
DSCC
28,119
DNCC
Dhaka Profile
Dhaka Profile
critical facilities
DNCC
DSCC
Dhaka
bridges
64
50
bridges
114
water tanks
10
18
water tanks
28
schools 1,101
schools 2,149 1,048
27 police stations 27
police stations
54
hospitals
487 232 hospitals 255
1 fire stations
7
fire stations
8
60 electric lines
48
electric lines (km)
108
sewerage lines (km)
220 107 sewerage lines 113
47
Chapter
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Earthquake
Hazards
2
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Bangladesh and the Ganges Brahmaputra Delta lies at the junction of three plates:
the Indian Plate, the Eurasian Plate, and the Burma Plate. The long, thin sliver of the
Burma Platelet is both advancing over the Indian Plate and sliding sideways. Its exact
motion in this region is still uncertain. Where the Platelet encounters the GangesBrahmaputra Delta north of 18°N latitude, it widens into a broad folded prism of
offscraped sediments. To the north, at the corner of Himalaya and Burma Arcs, the
Shillong Plateau is advancing to the south and may represent the beginning of a
forward jump of the Himalayas.12
The Region Tectonics provides
a context for understanding
the geology of the area. This
information tells how the
relevant tectonic plates interact
with each other. The location
and the motion of the tectonic
plates determine the possible
seismic sources that may affect
Dhaka.
The tectonics of the region is described as:
Earthquake Hazards
Regional Tectonics
Banani Lake
Gulshan Lake
What is a hazard?
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Figure 33. Region tectonics in Bangladesh. source: Banglapire
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“A dangerous phenomenon,
substance, human activity or condition that may cause
loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage.” (UNISDR Termi-
nology on Disaster Risk Reduction)
What is an earthquake?
A discernible shaking of the earth’s surface cause by
seismic waves generated by a sudden release of energy
from inside the earth due to tectonic activity.
What are hazards related to earthquakes?
Dhanmodi Lake
• Ground shaking
• Liquefaction
• Ground displacement (only along a fault)
• Fire
• Tsunami and seiche
• Flooding caused by tsunami
12
source: www.banglapire.org/Research/tectonics-geophysics
49
Reviewing the past earthquake history of the region provides insight to the types
of events that have impacted Dhaka and their effects on the city. This is necessary
before developing an earthquake model. The BUERP referenced the work of
Akhter, titled “Earthquakes of Dhaka” to identify past earthquakes that affected
the city.
Figure 34 below shows the highlights of the paper: the location of the past events
and the resulting intensities.
Earthquake Hazards
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Figure 34. Historical earthquakes that affected Dhaka.source: Akhter, “Earthquakes of Dhaka”
What earthquakes have impacted Dhaka?
Intensity VI (intensity where structural damage begins to occur)
• 1923, Magnitude 7.1
Intensity VII
• Srimangal Earthquake, 1918. Magnitude 7.6
Intensity VIII
• Bengal Earthquake, 1885. Magnitude 7
• Great Indian Earthquake, 1897. Magnitude 8.1
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• magnitude - energy released at the source of earthquake
• intensity - strength of ground shaking impacts to people,
human structures, and the environment
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What is the difference between magnitude and
intensity?
There are over fifteen earthquakes
that have been felt in Dhaka
in the past 200 years history.
Eight earthquakes with strong
intensitites are recorded - five
events with intensity VI, one event
with intensity VII, and two events
with intensity VIII. Structures
start to show cracks and other
damages at intensity VI. The latest
earthquake event that happened
with intensity VI was in 2001.
50
50
Dhanmodi Lake
Seismic source modelling is a necessary step in identifiying which earthquake causes the most
impact to Dhaka. Planning is then based on the worst case scenario as it causes the most
severe stress to Dhaka.
Earthquake Hazards
Due to the tectonic situation in Bangladesh, there is a number of potential earthquake sources
that might affect Dhaka (figure 35). These potential sources were identified in the CDMP
report “Time Predictable Fault Modeling of Bangladesh.” The study identified five sources of
most interest for the study region which included Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet. These sources
are summarized in the following map and table.
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Figure 35. Earthquake modeled sources. From CDMP (2004), “Time Predicable Fault Modeling.”
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Madhupur Fault
Dauki Fault
Plate Boundary Fault 1
Dhanmodi Lake
13
Estimated
Maximum
Magnitude
7.5
8.0
8.5
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8.0
8.3
Last Significant Event
1885 M7.0
1897 Great Assam Earthquake
1762
before 16th century
before 16th century
Which seismic sources will most
likely affect Dhaka13?
Plate Boundary Fault 1 (PBF1)
• magnitude M8.5
• latest event: 1762
• recurrence: 900 years
• 50 year probability: 1.1%
Plate Boundary Fault 2 & 3 (PBF2& PBF3)
• magnitude M8.0/M8.3
• latest event: unknown
• recurrence: unknown
• 50 year probability: over 6.7%
(if recurrence is 900 years and latest event was before 16th century)
Dauki Fault (DF)
• magnitude M8.0
• latest event: 1897 Great Assam Earthquake
• penultimate even: 1548 earthquake
• recurrence: 349 years
• 50 year probability: 7.0%
Madhupur Blind Fault (MF)
• magnitude M7.5
• latest event 1885
• recurrence: unknown
• 50 year probability: 8.7% (assuming
the recurrence is similar to the Dauki Fault)
CDMP.2004. “Time-Predictable Fault Modeling for Seismic Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet City Corporation Area” by CDMP and OYO
51
Soil characteristics affect how the ground shakes during an
earthquake. Generally, soft soil amplifies the strength of
ground shaking. The trend goes in such a way that the softer
the soil is, the stronger the shaking.
Soil conditions vary across astudy area. This is also true for
Dhaka. Most often, the source of this information will be
governmental geological agencies, or with local experts in
geology and engineering. In Dhaka, the BUERP consulted the
CDMP seismic hazard analysis report (figure 36).
Earthquake Hazards
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Figure 36. Modified NEHRP soil amplification characteristics in Dhaka. Source: CDMP
The above figure shows that the soil type E is the softest and
amplifies ground shaking the most. Soil type C is the stiffest,
and thus amplifies shaking the least.
The CDMP report modified the NEHRP soil classification to
provide a finer resolution with the class D soil. The above
images show how a short period and 1.0 second periods are
amplified according the the 5 subtypes of class D soil.
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The following maps show the soil classifications according to
amplification, as well as a generalized soil amplification ratio
that is aggregated according to ward.
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52
52
www.sanandreas
53
Earthquake Hazards
Earthquake Hazards
54
54
T
MMI
Scale
(Peak Ground Acceleration
in relation to gravity)
I
<0.17
PGAg
Intensity
Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable
conditions.
II
Ground motion is a primary factor, along with liquefaction, to consider for
loss modelling in an earthquake event in Dhaka. This section shows the
distribution of the strength of ground shaking in Dhaka, in the case of a
Madhupur Fault M7.5 earthquake scenario.
IV
1.4 - 3.9
Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some
awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound.
Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked
noticeably.
V
3.9 - 9.2
Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows broken.
Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.
VI
9.2 - 18
Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few
instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII
18 - 34
Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight
to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in
poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
VIII
34 - 65
Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage in
ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in
poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns,
monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
IX
65 - 124
Figure 37. Ground shaking due to earthquake.https://mceer.
buffalo.edu/infoservice/reference_services/EQaffectBuilding.asp
Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame
structures destroyed with foundations. Rails bent.
X
XI
Earthquake Hazards
0.17 - 1.4
III
Few, if any (masonry) structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed.
Rails bent greatly.
>124
Damage total. Lines of sight and level are distorted. Objects thrown into
the air.
XII
Figure 38. MMI scale, peak ground acceleration and
intensity.
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Figure 39. Ground shaking for M6.0 Dhaka Fault scenario.
Based on the current seismic hazard studies, three sources were
modeled using CAPRA-GIS. These are the (1) Madhupur Fault M7.5,
(2) Plate Boundary Fault 2 M8.0, and (3) M6 Under Dhaka Event.
These events are recognized to have the largest impacts to Dhaka.
The BUERP study modeled the ground motion attenuation
equations found in the CDMP analyses using new Next Generation
Lake
Attentuation (NGA) equations. The NGA was applied to the
Madhupur and Dauki Faults, averaging four attenuations as well as
losses for each individual relationship. The four attenuations are: 1)
AS08 (Abrahamson N. & W. Silva, 2008; 2) BA08 (Boore D.M. & G.M.
Gulshan
Lake K.W. & Y. Bozorgnia, 2008); and
Atkinson, 2008);
3) CB08 (Campbell
4) CY08 (Chiou B.S.-J & R.R.Youngs, 2008).14
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For the Plate Boundary sources, subduction source specific
attenuations were used: 1) Youngs et.al. (1997); 2) Atkinson and
Boore (2003) and 3) Zhao et.al. (2006).15
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Figure 40. Ground shaking for M8.0 Plate Boundary 2 scenario.
14
15
EMI, 2014. Hazards, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment Guidebook.
ibid.
55
Earthquake Hazards
56
56
57
Earthquake Hazards
Liquefaction is a type of ground failure during earthquake events. Liquefaction occurs when
saturated or partially saturated soil substantially loses strength and stiffness when subject to strong
ground shaking. This most often occurs with loose sandy soils. When this occurs, the soil is no
longer able to support loads, such as building foundations, and extensive structural damage can
occurs. Additionally, the settlement and/or spreading of soils can damage buried pipelines.
Liquefaction susceptibility maps are developed for better understanding the seismic risks of an area.
Susceptibility to liquefaction is based on surficial geological characteristics and general assumptions
related to the water table. this necessitates geological information such as borehole data.
Earthquake Hazards
The BUERP based its liquefaction study from the CDMP study. In the CDMP study, the filled in
area of Dhaka is categorized as having very high susceptibility. The BUERP’s analysis showed that
these filled in areas are based on borehole data. These borehole data indicates that the fill areas
are mostly surficial, meaning these areas have depths shallower than 3 meters, and likely placed in
low-lying areas as the city expanded. The BUERP study also found out that there is not sufficient
borehole samples, to assert with a level of certainty, that fill areas are in fact very highly susceptible
to liquefaction.
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In this regard, liquefaction susceptibility of these fill areas are distinguished according to impact to
structures and lifelines. Fill areas are classified as having moderate liquefaction potential for building
analyses. This is because building foundations are likely to go deeper than 3 meters, which is
deeper than filled in areas. On the other hand, the fill areas are classified as having high liquefaction
potential for buried utility lifelines, roads, and other structures that lie on the surface up to 3
meters into the ground.
BUERP recommends that for better knowledge with liquefaction susceptibility, more data should be
gathered, especially where the fill is thicker.
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Figure 41. Liquefaction process. From: http://californiawatch.org/files/Seismic-Day3-liquefaction_0.png
58
58
Earthquake Hazards
59
Earthquake Hazards
60
60
3
Chapter
Earthquake
Vulnerability
and Risk
Analysis
Earthquake Vulnerability and Risk Analysis
The discussion of vulnerability of physical infrastructure of Dhaka in
terms of their spatial and historical distribution is challenging due to
two reasons. First, besides some historically important or monumental
structures, most of the structures constructed before partition of
India, have gone through extension with newer construction both
horizontally and vertically. Thus the old structures are also rendered
with features of vulnerability of new constructions. However, it is true
that Pre-Mughal and Mughal structures can be found in a limited extent
of the city as discussed in the earlier sections. Second reason of the
challenge arises due to non-adherence to the Building Code. Buildings
that are constructed after enactment of the Building Code in 2006
may be as vulnerable as older buildings since there is no mechanism of
enforcement of the building code. Furthermore, with the adoption of
newer materials and techniques of construction, in some cases, more
vulnerability features have been compounded in recent constructions.
Timber and Bamboo Houses
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Timber and bamboo houses are very light structures
with timber, bamboo or steel truss roofing. The cladding
is usually with light corrugated galvanized iron sheets.
Thus they are inherently less vulnerable to earthquakes.
However, recently these structures are built 3 to 4
stories with great live loads as number of occupants is
usually high (figure 42). Since the joints are very flexible
and strength of members very low these structures
become susceptible to damage during earthquakes
which may cause tremendous economic hardship to
impoverished section of the society.
Figure 42. Three-storied bamboo house. Raquib Ahsan.
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Un-Reinforced Masonry (URM) Construction
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62
62
CDMP. 2009. Earthquake risk assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet Corporation area.
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According to the study of CDMP16, about 21% of the
building stock in Dhaka is un-reinforced masonry
construction (figure 43). From the Pre-Mughal time to the
present day, these structures have been designed to carry
the vertical loads only. Dead and live loads are supposed to
be transmitted to the foundation through load bearing walls.
Only the bearing stresses of the walls are checked. The older
structures of the Pre-Mughal and Mughal period have the
advantage of being smaller in height and having thick walls.
Compared to them, URM buildings of later periods are more
vulnerable with thinner walls and greater height.
Figure 43. URM Building. Raquib Ahsan.
Dhanmodi Lake
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Figure 44. Soft storey building. Raquib Ahsan.
Soft-Story
Absence of infill brick wall in the ground floor for car parking or shops
makes a large number of apartment and commercial buildings in Dhaka
vulnerable to earthquakes (figure 44). In late 70s a handful of developers
started building apartment buildings mainly in Dhanmondi and surrounding
areas. Gradually such construction became common all over Dhaka.
Figure 45. Flat slab structure.
Flat Slab
Flat slab type construction started even before independence of
Bangladesh mainly in the public buildings. These structures were properly
designed and in most of the cases were provided with appropriate capital
or drop panel. However, since 90s many residential buildings have been
constructed as flat slab type structure (figure 45). Later even medium rise
structures have been constructed and flat slab system is their primary
system for resisting lateral loads. Many of these structures are not properly
designed. They have inadequate column dimension and slab thickness. In
most of the cases no peripheral beams are provided.
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Figure 46. Heavy overhang in upper flors. Raquib Ahsan.
Gulshan
Lake
CDMP17 reports that about 77% buildings in Dhaka are reinforced concrete
construction. Due to lack of awareness and knowledge among relevant
professionals, some typical vulnerability features have been repeated in a
large number of RC buildings.
Typical Features of Vulnerability of Reinforced Concrete (RC)
Construction
Heavy Overhang
Leaving the required set-back in the ground floor, some building owners
have a tendency to use more space in the upper floors. Heavy overhang
(figure 46) is not uncommon in buildings specially in the ‘Old Dhaka’.
Gulshan Lake
Torsional Irregularity
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Due to asymmetric arrangement of shear walls, some medium to high rise
buildings mostly constructed within last decade have torsional irregularity
(figure 47). Shear walls are usually provided only in the lift core. Shear walls
in the eccentrically placed lift core is not balanced with additional shear
walls.
Figure 47. Shear wall placed asymmetrically.
Raquib Ahsan.
Dhanmodi Lake
17
CDMP. 2009. Earthquake risk assessment of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Sylhet Corporation area.
63
Slender column
Mezzanine floors are becoming common in recent
constructions. Columns connecting floors above and
below a mezzanine floor are longer than those within
the mezzanine floor area. Slender effects of these
columns are sometimes not taken into consideration.
Short column
Figure 48. Fire station with short columns in the upper floor. Raquib Ahsan.
Non-parallel system
In areas where plots are not divided in regular grids,
non-parallel structural systems of buildings can be found
(figure 49).
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Short columns are common in old school buildings and
fire stations (figure 48). Even in modern constructions in
some cases partial glass partitions make columns behave
like short columns.
Figure 49. Non-parallel system of building structure. Raquib Ahsan.
Non-redundant structure
Sometimes in corner plots the aspect ratio of length and
width becomes large. In these plots structures are built
with only one bay i.e., two column lines. Redundancy
of such structural system is absent against later loads
(figure 50).
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Figure 50. A non-redundant and thin structure. Raquib Ahsan.
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64
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Poor concrete
Quality of concrete is a major concern in reinforced concrete construction in Bangladesh. Other
than large and public projects, while mixing concrete water cement ratio is not properly maintained.
Cylinder or cube tests are seldom done. In column construction, until recently, kicker has been cast
in every story before casting the first lift. Usually strength of kickers is low creating a weak section
in the highest moment zone. Recently columns are sometimes cast in one lift; concrete is poured
from a height of 10 feet causing segregation of aggregates. For Ready Mix Concrete, transportation
Be
is a major hurdle in a traffic jam ridden city like Dhaka. In some cases, concrete is cast after its initial
setting time resulting in honey combing and porous concrete.
ri K
Figure 51. Insufficient gaps between two buildings. Raquib Ahsan.
Non-structural vulnerability
Awareness about seismic vulnerability of non-structural elements among engineers,
architects and occupants is almost non-existent. No measure is taken to reduce
vulnerability of non-structural elements.
Liquefiable soil
In low lying and reclaimed areas, land is filled usually with dredged material from
river bed which is mostly sandy. BUERP considers a high impact of liquefaction on
the filled sites on structures that are placed near the surface, such as roads and
pipelines that are buried 3 meters underground or shallower. Since buildings have
foundations that go deeper than 3 meters, liquefaction impact to buildings tend to
be moderate than high. Nonetheless, these filled sites needs to have more soil data
such as borehole studies to better understand the liquefaction susceptibility.
Figure 52. Narrow access roads to
buildings. Raquib Ahsan.
Insufficient gap
Building Construction Rules was promulgated by RAJUK in 2008
where the Floor Area Ratio concept was introduced. Before that
in many places in Dhaka sufficient set back was not maintained.
There are ample cases where no gap is provided between two
buildings (figure 51).
Narrow access
Particularly in the Old Dhaka access roads and alleys to even multi-storied buildings
is very narrow (figure 52). It is impossible for fire vehicles to operate in such narrow
alley ways. In case of a seismic event, rescue operations will be extremely difficult in
these localities.
Banani Lake
No fire protection
According to The Bangladesh National Building Code 2006, buildings above 20
meters in height are defined as High Rise and require special provisions for fire
fighting. However, few buildings actually comply with those criteria. Non-engineered
Gulshan Lake
buildings are extremely susceptible to fire hazard. Every year a large number of fire
incidences occur at different slums in the city.
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28,296,716,438
Dhaka
15,196,716,570
13,099,999,868
DSCC
DNCC
66
66
total building value (US$)
The first step in assessing vulnerability is to classify the building inventory into specific
construction classes. The following table shows the twelve predominant construction
classes in the Dhaka region (figure 52). Fragility curves are then assigned to each of the
construction classes. A fragility curve provides a cumulative frequency or probability for
exceeding a specific displacement threshold for each specific damage state (figure 53).
Displacement is expressed in an engineering quantity called Spectral Displacement. Typical
damage states include None (no damage), Slight, Moderate, Extensive, and Complete
Damage states.
Determining Dhaka’s building vulnerability necessitates the understanding of the several
factors, including construction materials, local building construction practices and oversight,
and the degree to which the earthquakes are or are not considered in the building design
process. A complete discussion of how these factors affect the calculation of building
vulnerability can be found in BUERP’s HVRA Guidebook (2014),
This section shows how the M7.5 Madhupur Fault earthquake scenario impacts Dhaka in
terms of building damage. Finding out the potential buildings that will be extensively or
completely damaged per ward is both helpful information on its own as well as input for
further vulnerability assessment.
From the formulation of the fragility curves, estimate of number buildings in each damage
state can be obtained. In particular, we would know the number of buildings that will
collapse or in extensive damage states, where most casualties take place.
Designation Description
C3L
C3M
C3H
C4L
C4M
C4H
LCL
LCM
BCL
BCM
BFL
TSL+BAL
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Concrete Frame with Masonry Infill - Low Rise
Concrete Frame with Masonry Infill - Mid Rise
Concrete Frame with Masonry Infill - High Rise
Concrete Slab-Column Frame - Low Rise
Concrete Slab-Column Frame - Mid Rise
Concrete Slab-Column Frame - High Rise
Lightly Reinforced Concrete Frame - Low Rise
Lightly Reinforced Concrete Frame - Mid Rise
Masonry with Concrete Floor - Low Rise
Masonry with Concrete Floor - Mid Rise
Masonry with Flexible Floor/Roof - Low Rise
Tin and Bamboo
Gulshan Lake
Figure 52. Frequency of building classes in Dhaka according to construction
material. Source: CDMP.
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ke
Figure 53. A sample fragility curve. The figure shows comparison between the newly
developed set of fragility functions for C3L buildings in Dhaka. From CDMP.
67
damaged buildings
88,023
68
68
34,128
53,895
DSCC
DNCC
Dhaka
damaged buildings
26.92%
Dhaka
28.68%
DNCC
24.56%
DSCC
69
In the M7.5 Madhupur Fault earthquake scenario, under current
physical and social conditions, it is estimated that over US$ 5.7
billion will be lost due to damages. It is also estimated that over
200,000 people will be injured and there will be over 50,000
fatalities.
Fatalities due to the earthquake are calculated using the number of
buildings in each damage state, the number of people by building
class, and the injury distribution for each damage state for each
building class. Analysis results show that significant amounts
of fatalities are probable with buildings that will be extensively
damaged, completely damaged, and collapsed.
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The potential economic loss is calculated using the cost of the
physical structure and the estimated contents within. These cost
estimates are based on the building use: residential buildings are
pegged to have smaller values of contents while industrial, health
facilities and research institutions and universities are estimated to
have much higher values of the buildings’ contents. These building
cost estimates are calculated from exposure to ground shaking and
liquefaction.7
Banan
gu
Losses of human life and physical assets are not equally distributed
across Dhaka. Each ward in Dhaka is unique in terms of its
geological conditions, exposure to earthquake, and the human
and physical infrastructure. Some wards are exposed to stronger
ground shaking and/or more susceptible to liquefaction, while
some wards have more people exposed to the hazards of ground
shaking. This section provides finer insight in terms of damage. It
shows which wards are more likely to suffer economic losses and
human fatalities in the M7.5 Madhupur Fault earthquake scenario.
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unb
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modelled economic loss (US$)
r
5,729,607,285
Dhaka
DNCC
DSCC
3,432,814,971 22,96,792,314
71
fatalities
38,556
Dhaka
72
72
18,099
20,457
DSCC
DNCC
fatalities
0.59%
Dhaka
0.54%
DNCC
DSCC
0.65%
73
water pipeline repairs (km)
228
74
74
DSCC
65
Dhaka
163
DNCC
4
Chapter
Urban
Disaster
Risk Index
Risk indicators and “hotspot” analysis identify concentrations of the
highest impact areas in order to focus respective disaster planning and
decision making. The hotspots are based on wards, which are the smallest
administrative unit relevant in emergency planning, preparedness and policy
making. These are the smallest units in the study in which population census
data is available.
Hotspots are defined by a combination of a number of critical indicators.
These indicators are categorized into two: (a) the expected direct physical
damage and losses (measured as Physical Risk Index or PRI), and (b)
the potential for aggravating impact of the direct damages by the social
fragility and coping capacity of the different wards in Dhaka (measured as
Impact Factor Index or IFI). The theoretical and analytical methodological
framework for the Urban Disaster Risk Index (UDRI) is based on the
work of Cardona, et. al. (2005). This procedure indicates that the UDRI is
calculated by multiplying the PRI by IFI, with the following relationship:
UDRI = PRI (1+IFI)
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The Physical Risk Index is a function of the following indicators: Building
Damage, Fatalities, Economic Loss, and Pipeline Repairs. The Impact Factor
Index is a function of the following indicators: Population Density,Vulnerable
Population (Elderly,Very Young, Disabled, Illiterate, Gender Ratio, Slum
Dwellers), and Lack of Access to Services (Electricity, Water, and Sanitation).
The Urban Disaster Risk Index is simply a combination of the PRI and the
IFI. The complete methodology is discussed in the accompanying HVRA
volume.
Banani L
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This section shows three maps: the PRI, IFI, and UDRI. It shows the ranking
of each ward according to each index.
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79
The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas shows the maps used and developed by the BUERP to aid in
understanding and building the Bangladesh’s resilience to earthquake hazards and disasters. The aim was
for the information to become knowledge – by presenting technical and scientific information in a visually
appealing manner and accessible language.
This document is not a static document – in fact, it is highly recommended that it should be viewed
critically and constantly updated as soon as new information and/or studies are available. For guidance
in updating, the reader is hereby recommended to refer to the other guidebooks produced by the
BUERP. These documents provide clear, step-by-step guide in conducting and developing the individual
components that lead to earthquakeresilience.
1. The Hazards,Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment Guidebook provides an example of a
framework for undertaking a HVRA in the context of urban disaster risk reduction. The elements of this
framework may be followed for similar assessments in other cities in Bangladesh.
2. Legal and Institutional Arrangements Guidebook. The Guidebook also provides real-life
examples based on project experiences in Dhaka and other cities like Mumbai in India, Amman in Jordan,
Quezon and Pasig in the Philippines of how to document, analyze and make use of the inter-related legal
and institutional functions for reducing disaster risks in megacities and large urban areas. The framework
it describes can be used for LIA investigations in other cities in Bangladesh.
3. Risk Sensitive Land Use Planning Guidebook provides a framework and process for analyzing
the responsiveness of land use planning practice and its plans, construction codes and standards, and their
enforcement in relation to disaster risk reduction in the context of urban development. This guide can be
useful for similar investigations in other cities and pourashavas to develop information for evaluating the
responsiveness or sensitivity to disaster risk of framework plans or local detailed area plans.
4. Roadmap for Building a Geospatial Data Sharing Platform for Urban Earthquake Resilience in
Dhaka presents the vision and purpose of the Roadmap for Geospatial Open Data Sharing (GeoDASH)
Platform in Dhaka and identifies detailed benchmarks and target outcomes for implementation.
This Atlas may be updated by gathering data provided by RAJUK, BBS census, and further studies in
earthquake and earthquake related hazards. For further assistance, the reader may contact the BUERP
collaborators.
80
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Akhter, S.H. (____). Earthquakes of Dhaka.
Akramuzzaman, M. (1966). Morphological Study of the New Town of Dacca City. M.A. dissertation, Department of Geography, Dhaka University.
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82

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