Presentation Slides

Cloud Charts
Identifying trend changes in global markets
David Linton MFTA
Chief Executive Officer, Updata
[email protected]
Updata Inc.
27th Floor, 1325 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10019
MTA – Annual Symposium 2011
Cloud Charts
• Construction – Understanding
• Using with other techniques
• Multiple Time Frames
• What the ‘clouds’ tell us now
My Background
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Founded Updata in 1991 in the UK
Developed by experienced TAs
Cloud Charts Book published 2010
Teach Ichimoku Module at UK STA
IFTA Paper on Optimization of Stoplosses
Against: Bloomberg, CQG, eSignal, Metastock, Tradestation, Trading Technologies
Market Professionals in over 40 countries rely on Updata Professional
Construction
Key Elements
Cloud Chart History
1750s – Munehisa Homma - Candlesticks
1880s – Charles Dow – Dow theory
1930s – Goichi Hosoda – Ichimoku development
1940s – Edwards and Magee
1960s – Hosoda publishes book on Ichimoku
1980s – IFTA – East meets West (SoCal 1984)
1990s – Hidenobu Sasaki publishes book
2000s – IFTA Conference Madrid – Rick Bensignor
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo - Definitions
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translates from Japanese into English as "one look.“
a glance at equilibrium prices
analyses the mid-points of historical highs and lows
are trend following indicators
can be used in a way similar to moving averages
allows for wider support and resistance zones
decreases the risk of trading false breakouts
conveys a great deal of information
on trend existence, direction,
support and resistance
Cloud elements - Japanese
Chart 1-2
Cloud elements - English
Chart 8-1
Cloud Chart Construction
1. Turning Line (conversion line) – 9 bar midpoint
2. Standard Line (base line) – 26 bar midpoint
3. Cloud Span A (Span 1) – midpoints of lines 1&2, shifted
forward 26 bars
4. Cloud Span B (Span 2) – 52 bar midpoint, shifted
forward 26 bars
5. Lagging Line (lagging span) – price shifted back 26 bars
9 – 26 - 52
Line Construction
Chart 8-3
Lines 1&2 v Moving Averages
Chart 8-6
Cloud Span A
Chart 8-7
Cloud Span B
Chart 8-8
Cloud Spans v Moving Averages
Chart 8-9
Lagging Line
Chart 8-12
Lagging Line and Cloud Span B
Chart 8-13
Interpreting Cloud Charts
Chart 9-1
Price interacting with Cloud
Chart 9-3
Bullish and Bearish Zones
Chart 9-4
Trend change
Chart 9-5
Cloud Thickness
Chart 9-8
Lagging Line and the Cloud
Chart 9-11
Lagging Line and Whipsaws
Chart 9-12
Later but Safer
Chart 9-14
Dealing with temporary breaches
Chart 9-15
Turning and Standard Lines
Chart 9-20
Clouds are a Roadmap
Chart 9-22
Cloud Charts in Sideways markets
Chart 9-23
Why do Cloud Charts work?
Figure 9-1
Using Clouds
with other
Techniques
Candles and Clouds
Chart 6-9
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With Oscillators – Sideways Markets
With Oscillators – Trending Markets
P&F Trend changes often agree
P&F Price Targets often concur
Price and Time projection
Chart 11-7
Clouds and Fibonacci Retracements
Cloud Chart of Gold P&F
Use small intra-day box sizes
Clouds on Seasonality
Clouds with CandleVolume
Clouds of Relative Strength Charts
Can you Optimise 9, 26 and 52?
Chart 13-2
Extending the Cloud
Chart 13-5
Cloud Width
Chart 13-8
Distance from Lagging Line
Chart 13-17
Cloud (LL) Bullish Percent
Chart 15-7
Cloud BPC price and lagging line
Chart 15-8
Scanning for cloud crosses
Appendix 1
Multiple
Time Frames
Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend or Downtrend?
Chart 10-3
Multiple Time Frame Analysis
Figure 10-2
What’s your Time Horizon?
Figure 10-3
Changing time frames
Chart 11-8
Intra-day charts
Chart 11-9
S&P 500 - Medium & Long Term
And Short Term
Have you Back-tested it?
Chart 14-2
Using a Signal Delay
Chart 14-5
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Optimising for the shorter term
Chart 14-9
Taking the longer term into account
Chart 14-10
Signal delay and weekly cloud filter
Chart 14-11
Backtest Results Cloud Crosses
March 2010
S&P 500 stocks – 5 years index down 7.5%
Using a signal delay 0-5 days
33% profit overall – 60% of stocks profitable
Taking the weekly trend into account + signal delay
79% profit overall – 86% of stocks profitable
So what do the
Clouds
tell us now?
US Stockmarket Ultra Long Term
78 Quarters = 19½ years
S&P 500 Index – Very Long Term
S&P 500 Index – Long Term
S&P 500 - Medium & Long Term
S&P 500 Index - Short Term
S&P500 Index – Ultra Short Term
Use with P&F Price Targets
Nasdaq – Long Term
Brazil - Bovespa
BSE – Sensex (India)
Oil – Medium & Long Term
Oil medium term pullback
Oil – Short Term Picture
US Nat Gas
Gold – Long Term
Gold – Medium Term
Gold Short Term
Silver – Short & Medium Term
Copper – Medium Term
US Dollar – Long Term
Eurodollar – Medium Term
US Bond Yield trend ending?
And the 10 Year?
S&P 500 Index – Weekly Crosses
Bullish Crosses - Bottoms
Bearish Crosses - Tops
Good Luck!
The Clouds should help you be luckier
David Linton MFTA
Chief Executive Officer, Updata
[email protected]
Updata Inc.
27th Floor, 1325 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10019