AF1 – Urban Environmental Planning WP 5 – Urban Transport

Transcription

Megacity Research Project TP. Ho Chi Minh
Integrative Urban and Environmental Planning Framework
Adaptation
Adaptation
to Global
to Climate
Climate
Change
Change
AF1 – Urban Environmental Planning
WP 5 – Urban Transport
Prof. Dr. Günter Emberger
Dr. Paul Pfaffenbichler
Vienna University of Technology
Institute of Transportation
Research Center of Transport
Planning and Traffic Engineering
WP 5 – Urban Transport Guenter Emberger
Projekt Meeting AF 1 HCMC 31.03.2009
Adaptation to Global Climate Change
Objectives of WP5 Urban Transport
The objective of work package 5 Urban
Transport is to assess the potential of land
use and transport strategies to improve the
effectiveness of the urban transport system
and to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
Adaptation
Adaptation
to Global
to Climate
Climate
Change
Change
Urban
Flooding
Urban
Climate
Urban
Energy
Urban
Transport
Public transport in HCMC is very poorly developed.
Urban Transport in HCMC
Motorised vehicle ownership (per 1,000 residents)
HCMC
Number
Mode share
City
Motorcycles
Cars
Total
Motorbikes
~3 million
60%-70%
Vienna
42
417
459
10%
Hanoi
412
43
455
Public Transport
Most traffic related impacts on the environment derive from private passenger traffic.
(Sources: Magistratsabteilung 66 - Statistisches Amt 2002; TDSI 2004)
Adaptation
Adaptation
to Global
to Climate
Climate
Change
Change
Urban
Flooding
Urban
Climate
Urban
Energy
Urban
Transport
VN Research & Cooperation Partners
Asso. Prof. Nguyen Ba Hoang, PhD.
Dean
Civil Engineer faculty
HoChiMinh University of Transport.
Nguyen Thi Phuong Hien
Director
Transport Environment and Development Center (TEDEC)
Transport Development and Strategy Institute (TDSI)
Ministry of Transport of Vietnam
162 Tran Quang Khai, Hanoi
The strategic dynamic land use and transport
interaction model MARS (Metropolitan Activity
Relocation Simulator)
Models so far:
Vienna (AUT)
Madrid (ESP)
Leeds (UK)
Edinburgh (UK)
Oslo (NOR)
Helsinki (S)
Chiang Mai (THA)
Ubon Ratchantani (THA)
Hanoi (VN)
www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/mars-metropolitan-activity-relocation-simulator.html
The MARS flight simulator
TRANSPORT POLICIY INSTRUMENTS
SLOW
Motorcycle
Car
Public transport
Car
Examples for
potential scenarios
Improving bus system
Increasing road
capacity
Metro System
population growth
The MARS model output
Mode Share Peak - motorized
Results
over Time
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
2
4
6
8
ms car peak : Actual Run
ms moto peak : Actual Run
ms car peak : Do-Nothing
ms moto peak : Do-Nothing
10
12
14 16 18
Time (Year)
20
22
24
26
28
30
Percent
Percent
Percent
Percent
The MARS flight simulator model of Hanoi
Results in
time and space
Tasks I
• Set up MARS Environment for HCMC
• Adaption of zoning system (24 districtcs, based of AF1
information)
– preparation of input data files
– set up of graphical dynamic GIS userinterface (AniMAP)
• Integration of motorbikes in MARS as an additional
means of transport (slow, car,pt,motorcycle, rail)
• Literature review
– HCMC transport masterplan, Verkehrserhebung HCMC 1997, HEPA –
Traffic counts data, MVA – CUBE model, Statistical yearbook HCMC,
Vietnam Infrastructure Strategy other AF1 & AF2 data sources, etc...
Tasks II
Data Collection excercise in collaboration
with Vietnamese Partners regarding
• population, employment, income, hh-size
• travel times, travel costs per means of transport
• estimations of housing costs
• land use, developable land
• modal split, traffic counts
• etc...
Concrete activities with our Partners I
Empirical investigations regarding road capacities
• Speed measurements on 10 different roads separated for
lorries, buses, car, cycle and pedestrians for peak and offpeak.
• Analysis of the average occupancy rate of the vehicles
• Analysis of the throughput of roads
• Measurement of transport related noise emissions
• Estimation of travel speeds by travelling from city center to
specific locations during peak/ off peak hours using different
means of transport (bike, motorbike, public transport, car,
etc..)
Concrete activities with our Partners II
• Providing information in English of existing / planned further
steps regarding land use and transport plans for HCMC
(Compilation of relevant documents and summaries in English)
– partly finished
• Summary of traffic related laws
• Information on enforcement
• Support on scenario definitions (such as assessment of the
Metro system, impact analysis of road network extensions, car
ownership development, etc…)
At the moment we are in right the middle of this data
gathering process !!
Further outlook
• Thursday 2nd April 09: HCMC UoT -
International Symposium of transport planning
and influence of climate change
• Set up MARS Model /calibration /scenarios
• Future: Organising Training Courses in HCMC
Adaptation
Adaptation
to Global
to Climate
Climate
Change
Change
Thank you for your
attention!
Prof. Dr. Günter Emberger
VN Mobile: 01265427640
[email protected]
Dr. Paul Pfaffenbichler
Mobile VN: 01265427640
[email protected]
Vienna University of Technology
Institute of Transportation
Research Center of Transport Planning and
Traffic Engineering
The MARS Hanoi model
The MARS flight simulator model of Hanoi
The land use part
H4Land available for
Land
Price
development
+
H2+
+
H3Attractiveness to +
develop
+
New
Rent
Housing
+
H1+
Housing
Excess demand
stock
- for housing
+
+
Accessibility
+
Population
Green areas
Model Set Up – Data Requirements
•
•
•
•
•
•
population, employment, income, hh-size
travel times, travel costs per means of transport
estimations of housing costs
land use, developable land
modal split, traffic counts
etc...
A simple SD model of the interaction between car
ownership and land and energy consumption
600 (veh/1000 inh)
400 (year 0 = 100)
20 (km/h)
M
SM
SM
M
300 (veh/1000 inh)
200 (year 0 = 100)
10 (km/h)
M
P
P
PS
P
0 (veh/1000 inh)
0 (year 0 = 100)
0 (km/h)
P
M
P
S
S
M
S
P
P
M
M
S
S
S
P
C
0
M
C
4
C
8
C
C
12
16
C
C
20
C
C
24
28
Vehicle stock[moto] : Current
(veh/1000 inh)
M
M
M
M
M
M
Vehicle stock[car] : Current
(veh/1000 inh)
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Petrol consumption
P
P
P
P
P
P
P
P (year 0 = 100)
Speed
(km/h)
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
S
Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2007)
What we plan to do in the project
• Set up a MARS Model for HCMC
• Set up an fleet composition model
• Expected results – forcast of modal shares,
accidents, emissions (CO2), congestion, land use
development, and many other indicators
• What we need – Information based on zones
regarding population, motorisation rate, public
transport, modal shares, household income, land use,
etc.
TU Vienna – Institut for Transport Planning
and Traffic Enginering
TU Vienna – founded 1815
• 21 Bachelorstudies and 41 Masterstudies, 5 Lectorship-studies, 8 faculties,
230 partner universities
•
17.579 students; 151 Professors, 2400 Research Staff, 3500 total staff;
approx. 155 Mio. EUR budget plus approx. 45 Mio. EUR projects
Institute for Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering
•
founded 1960ies, 14 staff, 4 professors, involvement in >30 international
projects
•
Main activities: teaching, research, planning, training
Background of TUW-IVV
www.ivv.tuwien.ac.at/forschung/projekte/international-projects/sparkle-2004.html
Involved Countries: UK, A, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia
Objectives (2004-2006)
• to promote and transfer knowledge to the countries of South East Asia on
the process of developing sustainable urban land use and transport policies
• to provide technical training to local planners and decision-makers on how
to use scientific and logical approaches to formulate a sustainable land use
and transport policy.
MARS applcations Europe
Europe
MARS applcations Asia
Asia
A simple SD model of the interaction between car
Volume/Capacity
T=0
<Built capacity>
V free
Alpha
Vehicle stock T=0
Volume/Capacity
Vehicle inflow
Purchase price
<Time>
Vehicle
stock
Vehicle outflow
Potential
vehicles T
Space consumption
car/moto
Lifespan
<Vehicle stock
T=0>
V congested
Distance
V congested T-1
New capacity
decision
Capacity in
Threshold
construction
Parameter
Energy T=0
Energy mode
<V congested>
Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2007)
Beta
Built capacity
Construction time
Energy relative
<Vehicle stock>
A SD model of the interaction between car
• A System Dynamics model was created to
simulate the interaction between car and
motorcycle ownership, infrastructure development
and land and energy consumption.
• This model was used to give a first estimation of
the effects of the WTO accession of Vietnam.

AF1 – Urban Environmental Planning WP 5 – Urban Transport

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