indonesia`s toll road development
Transcription
indonesia`s toll road development
INDONESIA’S TOLL ROAD DEVELOPMENT Reynaldi Hermansjah CFO PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. Indonesia Australia Business Week 0 Jakarta, 18 November 2015 Disclaimer By attending this presentation, you are agreeing to be bound by the restrictions set out below. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of applicable securities laws. The information and opinions contained in this presentation are intended solely for your personal reference and are strictly confidential. The information and opinions contained in this presentation have not been independently verified, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of, the information or opinions contained herein. 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In addition, the information contained in this presentation contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect the company's current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on a number of estimates and current assumptions which are subject to business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies as well as various risks and these may change over time and in many cases are outside the control of the company and its directors. No assurance can be given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the company's assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those forecast and projected. This presentation is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, invitation or recommendation to purchase or subscribe for any securities and no part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision in relation thereto. This presentation may not be used or relied upon by any other party, or for any other purpose, and may not be reproduced, disseminated or quoted without the prior written consent of the company. Any investment in any securities issued by the company or its affiliates should be made solely on the basis of the final offer document issued in respect of such securities. Relaying copies of this presentation to other persons in your company or elsewhere is prohibited. 1 National Development Mid-term Plan (2015-2019) No Projects Baseline 2014 Objective 2019 1. Seaport (number of port) 278 302 2. Electricity Supply (GW) 50.7 85.7 3. National Road (km) 1,202 3,852 4. Toll Road (km) 807 1,807 5. Railways (km) 5,434 8,692 6. Airport (number of port) 237 252 2 Regulatory Framework Current regulatory structure Jasa Marga has flexibility to invest in prospective toll road. Encourage more private participation in toll roads business – no limit on foreign ownership. Competitive bidding environment with strict financial closure requirements on winners. Government of Indonesia (“GOI”) Ministry of StateOwned Enterprises (“MSOE”) 70% Ownership 30% Ownership Public Since 12 Nov 2007 Granting & Supervising Toll Road concessions Minister of Public Works Indonesian Toll Road Authority (“BPJT”) Concession Agreement Directorate General of Highways Ministry of Public Works (“MPW”) Road Network Planning & Setting of Technical Specifications Concession Agreement Private Toll Road Investors Private Toll Road Investors Private Toll Road Investors 3 Improved Regulations Tariff Land Acquisition Initial toll tariff is calculated based on Land acquisition is Government’s investment feasibility, toll road user’s ability to pay and vehicle operating cost saving. Investment feasibility is calculated based on estimated investment cost and projected revenue during term of the concession. responsibility, is undertaken by land procurement committee appointed by the Government. Price is determined by independent appraiser based on fair market price. Government provides a revolving fund to acquire land in advance. Land cost and availability is secured, because investor should repay land cost only after land is fully acquired. Initial toll tariff is stipulated in concession agreement prior to start of construction. Tariff adjustment is regulated by law, Government guarantees maximum is calculated based on CPI and is adjusted once every two years. land price to be compensated by the investor (land capping scheme). Initial toll tariff setup and subsequent adjustment is decided by Minister of Public Works decree. 4 4 Stages of Land Acquisition (Based on UU No. 2/2012) The new land acquisition law carries the following main points: • Fair price is determined through independent appraisal. • Land owner may choose to reject through court, yet court has to decided in 30 days (final). • After transaction process (normal) or by court verdict, project can commence. • Re-settlement is also an option. • The Government should carry out socialization far in advance (transparent). • BPN (National Land Agency) is the only body responsible for land acquisition for public interests. 5 Implementation of Viability Gap Funding (VGF) from the Government Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi Toll Road Belawan-Tanjung Morawa Toll Road Length Investment Cost 61.7 km Rp 4.07 trillion 17.8 km 43.9 km Notes : Constructed by Government Constructed by Investor 6 Implementation of Viability Gap Funding (VGF) from the Government TRANS JAVA TOLL ROAD SOLO-NGAWI (90.1 KM) NGAWI-KERTOSONO (87.02 KM) Investor Section Land Acquisition: 96% Construction: 40% Length Investment Cost Solo-Ngawi 90.1 km Rp 5.14 trillion Ngawi-Kertosono 87.02 km Rp 3.83 trillion Notes : Constructed by Government Constructed by Investor 7 Toll Road Operator in Indonesia with 37 Years of Experience Start Operation 1978 1983 1984 Jagorawi 1986 SurabayaGempol (4) Semarang 1987 1988 1990 Padaleunyi JakartaCikampek Jakarta-Tangerang Toll Road Concessions 1998 2001 2003 2009 2011 Cipularang Palikanci Ulujami-Pondok Bogor Outer Ring Road Aren BORR Jakarta Outer (Section 1)(2) Ring Road (JORR) Surabaya-Mojokerto (Section 1A)(2) Belmera Prof. Dr. Ir. Sedyatmo 1991 Jakarta Inner Ring Road (JIRR) (1) 2013 2014 2015 JORR W2 North (Section 1-4)(2) BORR (Section 2 & 3)(2) Semarang-Solo (Section 2)(2) GempolPandaan(2) BORR (Section 2A)(2) GempolPasuruan(2) SemarangSolo(2) Cengkareng-Kunciran(2) Semarang-Solo (Section 1)(2) Kunciran-Serpong(2) Surabaya-Mojokerto(2) Nusa Dua-Ngurah (2) Rai-Benoa Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi(2) Solo-Ngawi(2) Ngawi-Kertosono(2) Cinere-Serpong(2) Number of Concessions 1 2 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 26 Total Length (km) under 986.81 59 84 131 223 246 329 394 437 463 469 527 531 544 554 576 590 Corresponding (3) Concessions Note: (1) Jakarta Inner Ring Road (JIRR) is comprised of the Cawang-Tomang-Pluit concession granted to Jasa Marga and Cawang-Tanjung Priok-Pluit concession granted to CMNP. (2) Jasa Marga’s newly acquired toll road concessions. (3) The cumulative length of road represents the current total road length that corresponds to key toll road concessions in this table, not to the year where the concession started. (4) Porong-Gempol Section (5 km) within Surabaya-Gempol Toll Road has officially been closed due to force majeure (mud) since 2006. 8 The Largest Toll Road Operator in Indonesia Manages and operates 590 km of toll roads in Indonesia – 63% share. Urban concentration in Jakarta metropolitan area – some of Indonesia’s busiest toll roads. Regional concentration in Java and Sumatera – most populated islands in Indonesia. Strait of Malacca :Operated before 2004 NORTH SUMATERA Belmera: 42.70 km Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi: 61.70 km GREATER JAKARTA & WEST JAVA SUMATRA Jagorawi: 59.00 km Jakarta-Tangerang: 33.00 km Ulujami-Pondok Aren: 5.55 km Jakarta Inner Ring Road: 23.55 km Prof. Dr. Ir. Sedyatmo: 14.30 km Jakarta-Cikampek: 83.00 km JORR: 43.10 km Cikampek-Padalarang: 58.50 km Padalarang-Cileunyi: 64.40 km Palikanci: 26.30 km Bogor Outer Ring Road: 11.00 km Cengkareng-Kunciran: 14.19 km Kunciran-Serpong: 11.19 km JORR W2 North: 7.70 km Cinere-Serpong: 10.24 km : 13 new projects on the pipeline, operating in stage since 2009. MALUKU SULAWESI KALIMANTAN PAPUA Java Sea Banda Sea JAVA BALI CENTRAL JAVA Indian Ocean Semarang: 24.75 km Semarang-Solo: 72.64 km Solo-Ngawi: 90.1 km Ngawi-Kertosono: 87.02 km Greater Jakarta: 275 km (47%) EAST JAVA Surabaya-Gempol: 49.00 km Gempol-Pasuruan: 34.15 km Timor Sea Surabaya-Mojokerto: 36.27 km Gempol-Pandaan: 13.61 km BALI Nusa Dua-Ngurah Rai-Benoa: 10.00 km Non-Greater Jakarta: 315 km (53%) 9 Jasa Marga New Projects Jasa Marga’s New Toll Roads Expiration Length (km) Investment Cost (Rp trillion) Jasa Marga Ownership 1. Bogor Outer Ring Road (1) 2054 11.00 0.98 55% 2. Semarang-Solo (part of Trans Java) (2) 2055 72.64 6.21 73.91% 3. Gempol-Pasuruan (part of Trans Java) 45 years from effective date 34.15 2.77 97.02% 4. JORR2 (Cengkareng-Kunciran) 35 years from effective date 14.19 3.51 76.20% 5. JORR2 (Kunciran-Serpong) 35 years from effective date 11.19 2.62 60% 6. JORR W2 North (road section of JORR) (5) 2044 7.70 2.15 65% 7. Surabaya-Mojokerto (3) 2049 36.30 3.22 55% 8. Gempol-Pandaan 35 years from effective date 13.61 1.17 89.17% 9. Nusa Dua-Ngurah Rai-Benoa (4) 45 years from effective date 10.00 2.48 55% 10. Medan-Kualanamu-Tebing Tinggi 40 years from effective date 61.70 4.07 55% 11. Solo-Ngawi (part of Trans Java) 35 years from effective date 90.10 5.14 59.99% 12. Ngawi-Kertosono (part of Trans Java) 35 years from effective date 87.02 3.83 59.99% 13. Cinere-Serpong 35 years from effective date 10.24 2.2 55% 459.84 40.35 Concession/Section TOTAL Notes: (1) Section 1: Sentul-Kedung Halang (3.85 km) is operated since 23 November 2009; Section 2A: Kedung Halang-Kedung Badak (1.95 km) is operated since 04 June 2014. (2) Section 1: Semarang-Ungaran (10.80 km) is operated since 17 November 2011; Section 2: Ungaran-Bawen (12.30 km) is operated since 04 April 2014. (3) Section 1A: Waru-Sepanjang (2.30 km) is operated since 05 September 2011. (4) Operated since 01 October 2013. (5) Section Kebon Jeruk-Cileduk (5.70 km) is operated since 04 January 2014; Section Cileduk-Ulujami (2.00 km) is operated since 22 July 2014. (6) Section Gempol-Pandaan (13.61 km) is operated since 12 June 2015. 10 Greater Jakarta Toll Road Network Integrated toll road network in and around Greater Jakarta. 11 Toll Road Network in Java Island 12 Indonesia’s Toll Road Traffic Volume Jasa Marga operates most of the busiest toll roads in Indonesia. Average Daily Traffic Volume Transaction* (December 2014) ‘000 cars per day (80%) Toll roads operated by Jasa Marga Toll roads operated by others Notes(*): (1) Average daily traffic volume is calculated by dividing traffic volume by 365 days. (2) All data are based on traffic volume until 31 December 2014. (3) When not available, data on other companies are based on the closest estimation of available data. 13 Resilient Industry: Insensitive Traffic Volume Fluctuating car sales growth in Indonesia has minimal impact to our traffic volume, however increase in car sales will contribute to higher traffic volumes in the long run. Traffic on Jasa Marga’s Toll Roads Car Sales (thousand) Direct impact of economic crisis Source: GAIKINDO (2) (million) Direct impact of fuel price hike (1) Source: Jasa Marga Note: (1) Fuel price increased significantly in October 2005 but the full impact in car sales was only felt in 2006. (2) Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (The Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries). 14 High Growth of Quality Asset for Sustainable Revenue Growth Jasa Marga’s expansion from current new projects will accelerate the asset value with the capability to generate high and sustainable revenue growth. Revenue Growth Asset Growth (Rp trillion) 90.07 18.48 7.23 31.86 2014A (Rp trillion) 2020F 2014A 2020F 15 THANK YOU 16