The growing importance of megacities

Top 10 trends 2014
Top 10 trends 2014
9
The growing importance
of megacities
Geoffrey West is a Distinguished
Professor at the Santa Fe Institute,
and Chair of the Global Agenda
Council on Complex Systems
From global warming to homelessness,
from debt crises to energy shortages,
from insufficient water to outbreaks of
disease, name any problem that concerns
humanity and the city is the crucible
where you will find it bubbling away.
But cities also represent our best hope
for finding solutions to these enormous
challenges since they are the cauldrons
of innovation, ideas and wealth creation.
Thus, an urgent challenge of the 21st
century is to understand cities, and by
extension megacities – those urban areas
with populations exceeding 15 million.
Looking back over 150 years to
megacities of the past, such as London
or New York, we recognise that they
suffered from much the same negative
“All cities share the same
effective ‘DNA’ because
they’re made up of people;
cities are fundamentally
social networks, complex
adaptive systems that
behave similarly regardless
of geography, political
system or economic model.”
26a | Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014
image often associated with megacities
of today. Think of the Dickensian image
of London: a city pervaded by crime,
pollution, disease and destitution.
Nevertheless, these cities were highly
mobile, evolving and diverse societies,
offering huge opportunities ultimately
resulting in their modern manifestation
as drivers of the world’s economy.
Much the same could be speculated
about megacities emerging today in
Africa, Asia and other parts of the world.
Recently, my colleagues and I have
been developing a ‘Science of Cities’ to
understand quantitatively how their socioeconomic and infrastructural dynamics
and organisation work. We found some
surprising results. By analysing data
representing a broad spectrum of urban
metrics of cities across the world, we found
that they all scale in a remarkably similar
fashion. This means that if you know the
population of a city within some urban
system anywhere in the world, you can
predict with 80–90% accuracy its average
income, number of AIDS cases, patents,
crime rate, petrol stations, length of roads,
etc. So, despite history, geography and
culture, there are extraordinary systematic
regularities and constraints that transcend
the individuality of cities.
Why is this? We believe these ‘laws’
reflect the commonality and similarity
of people and social networks the world
over: the connection is us. All cities
share the same effective ‘DNA’ because
they’re made up of people; cities are
fundamentally social networks, complex
adaptive systems that behave similarly
The observation deck of Tokyo
Skytree, the world’s tallest standalone communications tower
© Reuters / Issei Kato
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014 | 27a
Top 10 trends 2014
9
Top 10 trends 2014
Inside the data
Rapid growth of megacities
Population growth of the top 15 megacities (millions, 2001-2025)
If Tokyo were
considered
a country,
by 2025 it
would be the
31st largest
in the world
New Delhi
Mexico City
23m
20m
Beijing
33m (+43%)
25m (+25%)
Shanghai
16m
20m
28m (+40%)
23m (+44%)
New York
20m
24m (+20%)
Karachi
Rio de Janeiro
14m
20m (+43%)
12m
14m (+17%)
More megacities than ever before
Manila
12m
16m (+33%)
Sao Paulo
20m
23m (+15%)
Los Angeles
13m
16m (+23%)
Mumbai
20m
27m (+35%)
China, for example, has embarked
on the daunting task of constructing
new cities to urbanise 250 million rural
residents. Perhaps out of expediency,
these cities are being built without deep
understanding of the complexity of cities
and its connection to socio-economic
success. Indeed, we are told that many
of these new cities, like classic suburbs,
are soulless ghost towns with little sense
of community. Cities have an organic
quality; they evolve and physically grow
out of interactions between people.
26b | Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014
37m
39m (+5%)
Dhaka
15m
23m (+53%)
regardless of geography, political system
or economic model.
How does this extend to megacities?
The Survey on the Global Agenda showed
that across the globe people recognise
their importance, but the jury is out on
their future. Will they continue to grow
indefinitely without significant improvement
of social conditions, or will they follow the
trajectories of London and New York and
develop into major economic engines and
modern metropolises? Cities take decades
to change, but as we look around the
world there are lessons that underscore
the importance of really understanding
what makes them tick.
By 2025,
there will be
35 megacities
in comparison
to 22 in 2011
Tokyo
Buenos Aires
Calcutta
14m
16m (+14%)
2001
2025
14m
19m (+36%)
The great metropolises of the world
facilitate human interaction, creating that
indefinable buzz and soul of the city; the
wellspring of its innovation and excitement
that is a major contributor to its resilience
and success, economically and socially.
Source: UN Population Division,
World Urbanisation Prospects 2011
Revisions; figures for 2025 are projections
Source: UN Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects 2011 Revisions; figures for 2025 are projections
Significance of the growing importance of megacities, by region
North America
3.48
3.00
3.25
India
3.70
Latin America
3.50
Asia
3.60
Sub-Saharan
Africa
3.42
Middle East
and North Africa
3.35
Significance of the growing importance of megacities, by country
United Arab
Emirates
3.70
Europe
3.45
Japan
3.40
3.50
< Less significant
3.75
More significant >
3.25
United
States
3.50
3.50
China
3.70
Netherlands
3.80
Brazil
3.70
Mexico
3.80
Hong Kong
SAR
3.90
3.75
< Less significant
1.00 = Not significant at all 2.00 = Not very significant 3.00 = Somewhat significant
4.00 = Very significant 5.00 = Extremely significant
1.00 = Not significant at all 2.00 = Not very significant 3.00 = Somewhat significant
4.00 = Very significant 5.00 = Extremely significant
Source: Survey on the Global Agenda 2013
Source: Survey on the Global Agenda 2013
4.00
4.25
More significant >
In the US, Detroit shows us how
neglecting diversity can lead to losing
that buzz. Detroit was narrowly focused
on the automobile industry, which
indeed spun off other associated but
highly dependent industries, which led
to a temporary boom. But because of
its lack of business diversity, the city
was unable to adapt when the ageing
automobile industry hit tough times.
Cities are quintessential complex adaptive
systems constrained by underlying social
and infrastructural networks. Diversity is
crucial for their resilience, because all of
their benefits, successes and problems
are thereby highly coupled, interacting
and continually changing
Outlook on the Global Agenda 2014 | 27b