Brazil - Foundry

B R I C S
FOUNDRY FORUM
RUSSIA 2015
B R A Z I L and Foundry Industry
Overview / Trends
Remo De Simone
President
Brazilian Foundry Association - ABIFA
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures
2)
3)
4)
5)
Infrastructure and Raw Material
Cast Metal in Brazil
Foreign Trade
Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
BRAZIL - 2014
POPULATION: 200.4 M
AREA: 8.5 M km2
GDP: 2.35 TRILLION US$
7th WORLD ECONOMY
FLEET OF VEHICLES: 41.7 M
BRAZIL IS THE LARGEST
COUNTRY IN SOUTH
AMERICA
REPRESENTS:
• 48% IN TERRITORY
• 51% OF POPULATION
• 48% OF GDP
ONLY BRAZIL AND
ARGENTINA HAVE A
ESTABLISHED FOUNDRY
INDUSTRY.
Brazil – GDP Evolution
Billion US$/ano
3.000
2,613
2,412
2,391 2,353
2,209
2.500
1,695
1,667
1,396
1,108
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
1,809*
893
560 509 560 670
0
2001
2003
Source: BACEN
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
*2015
estimated
Brazil – GDP Evolution (%)
without inflation of the period
10
8
7,6
6
4
5,0
4,4
4,0
3,1
2
6,0
5,7
1,3
0
3,9
3,1
2,7
1,8
1,2
-0,2
0,1
0,2
-1,8
-2
-4
Source: BACEN
*estimated
Brazil – Inflation Evolution (%)
accumulated per year
14,0
12,5
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
9,3
9,3
7,7
6,0
7,6
6,7
5,9
4,5
4,0
5,9
6,5
6,4
5,8 5,9
5,4
4,3
3,1
2,0
0,0
Source: BACEN
*estimated
Participation of the Industry in GDP (%)
Manufacturing Industry
20,0
17,9
15,2
15,0
10,0
14,0
Foundry Industry
0,70
16,7
16,6
0,60
0,50
15,0
14,4
0,63
11,5
13,9 10,9
0,49
0,65
0,61
0,51
0,57
0,40
0,41
0,30 0,41
0,49
0,47
0,36
0,20
5,0
0,10
0,0
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
Source: IBGE/ABIFA
0,00
World Ranking – GDP
(Trillion US$)
1st USA
2nd China
3rd Japan
4th Germany
5th UK
6th France
7th BRAZIL
8th Italy
9th INDIA
10th Russia
Source: BACEN
2014
17.419
10.380
4.616
3.860
2.945
2.847
2.353
2.148
2.050
1.857
2015 ( * )
18.125 1st
11.212 2nd
4.210 3rd
3.413 4th
2.853 5th
2.470 6th
2.308 7th INDIA
1.843 8th
1.809 9th BRAZIL
1.615 10th Canada
( * ) PREVIEW
8
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures
2) Infrastructure and Raw Material
3) Cast Metal in Brazil
4) Foreign Trade
5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Electric Power
Hydro Generation is the main source in Brazil
95.7 GW Install Capac
Source:
ANEEL/FIRJAN
Natural Resources
- Electricity
for its continental dimensions, hydro generation is
the main source in Brazil
- Iron Ore
Brazil is the third largest producer and also has the
third reserve of iron ore
- Bauxite Ore
Bauxite ore (aluminum) - also in this case, we are
the third largest producer and have the third reserve
of bauxite ore for the production of primary
aluminum
Brazil has a surplus in its main raw materials
100
90
100
100
100
80
70
60
50
40
50,3
30
36,5
40
20
10
0
Pig Iron
Aluminum
production
Source: ABAL/ABRAFE/SINDIFER
exports
Ferroalloys
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures
2) Infrastructure and Raw Material
3) Cast Metal in Brazil
4) Foreign Trade
5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Cast metal world production (ton)
2013
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
2012
1 º CHINA
44,500,000 42,500,000
2 º USA
12,250,000 12,824,960
3 º INDIA
9,810,000
9,344,400
4 º JAPAN
5,538,037
5,342,837
5 º GERMANY 5,186,727
5,214,114
6 º RUSSIA
4,100,000
4,300,000*
7 º BRAZIL
3,071,400
2,859,898
8 º KOREA
2,562,000
2,435,800
9 º ITALY
1,970,968
1,959,680
10 o FRANCE
1,748,166
1,800,156
Source: Modern Casting/Dec 2014
* 2011 data
The crisis of 2008-09 had a strong effect on our country
Production 2006-15
4.000
Thousand ton
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brazil 3.087 3.250 3.355 2.297 3.241 3.344 2.860 3.071 2.737 2.450
Source: ABIFA
2015 preview
quick analysis of cast metal production in Brazil
Total production
2,737.2 th ton (2014)
Non ferrous
217.5 th ton
Source: ABIFA
South and Southeast Region in Brazil
represent 95% of all production
61%
34%
Sales of casting are concentrated in automotive
industry
SIDERURGY
2%
OTHER
6%
EXPORTS
15%
CAP GOODS
13%
INFRASTRUC
6%
Source: ABIFA
AUTOMOTIVE
58%
Worldwide Vehicle Production
(thousand units)
2013
•
•
•
1 º China
2 º USA
3 º Japan
•
•
•
4 º Germany
5 º South Korea
6 º India
5,718
4,521
3,881
•
•
•
•
7 º Brazil
8 º Mexico
9 º Thailand
10 o Canada
3,712
3,052
2,457
2,380
22,117
11,046
9,630
Source: ANFAVEA
5th automotive world market
Brazil - vehicle production
4000
3500
Thousand unit
3000
(15,3)%
(20,5)%)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brazil 2612 2980 3216 3183 3382 3416 3403 3713 3146 2500
Source: ANFAVEA - Brazil
2015 preview
Countries of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil and
Mexico) have a great dependence of Automotive
Industry
PARTICIPATION IN PRODUCTION
ARGENTINA
57%
BRAZIL
58%
MEXICO
75 – 80%
Source: ABIFA, CIFRA, SMF
Shows a potential to be exploited to reach the
developed countries (2014)
INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE
ARGENTINA
3.7
BRAZIL
5.4
MEXICO
3.6
INHABITANTS/ VEHICLE
GERMANY
1.7
ITALY
1.6
SPAIN
1.9
FRANCE
1.7
USA
1.3
Source: ANFAVEA
MAIN TOPICS
1) Brazil in figures
2) Infrastructure and Raw Material
3) Cast Metal in Brazil
4) Foreign Trade
5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Evolution of foreign trade in Brazil
2500
unit: Million US$ (2005-15
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports 1095
Imports 159
1374
300
1354
559
1494
808
763
1926
1185
1096
1521
1260
1362
2061
1233
2250
1216
1714
1150
400
2015  preview
Source: ABIFA
Brazil  55% of total exports going to EUA – US$ - %
Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous
Source: ABIFA,
Brazil  27% of total imports come from ASIA – US$ - %
Iron + Steel + Non Ferrous
Source: ABIFA,
MAIN TOPICS
1)
2)
3)
4)
Brazil in figures
Infrastructure and Raw Material
Current Situation
Cast Metal in Brazil
5) Trends – Brazil and Foundry Industry
Necessary Investments in Foundry Industry in Brazil in
the next years (2015 – 2019)
From 2015 until 2019 the Foundry Sector is expected to invest 880
million dollars to increase the production of 400 thousand tons
needed to meet the growth of sectors such as Automotive,
Railway, Mining, Wind Generation and other.
Production and installed capacity needed to meet the expected
demand in Brazil (unit: thousand ton)
THANK YOU !
Brazilian Foundry Association – ABIFA
Av. Paulista, 1274 – 20o andar
01310-925 – São Paulo – SP - Brazil
Ph: (+55 11) 3549-3344 and Fac (+55 11) 3549-3355
Remo De Simone – president
[email protected]
www.abifa.org.br
Sept/2015
Source:
ABAL - Brazilian Aluminum Association
ABIFA – Brazilian Foundry Association
ABRAFE – Brazilian Ferroalloys Association
ANEEL – National Agency of Electricity (Brazil)
ANFAVEA – National Automobile Manufactures Association (Brazil)
BACEN – Central Bank of Brazil
CIFRA – Argentina´s Chamber of Metalcaster
FIRJAN – Federation of Rio de Janeiro Industries
IBGE – Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
SINDIFER – Producers of Pig Iron Trade Union (Brazil)
SMF – Mexican Society of Metalcasters