The Top 12 Stocks for 2016
Transcription
The Top 12 Stocks for 2016
The Top 12 Stocks to Buy Right Now By Dr. Mark Skousen Editor, Forecasts & Strategies By Doug Fabian Editor, Successful ETF Investing By Nicholas Vardy Editor, The Alpha Investor Letter By Bryan Perry Editor, Cash Machine Eagle Financial Publications • 300 New Jersey Ave. NW #500 •Washington, DC 20001 Copyright 2016 by Eagle Products, LLC All rights reserved IMPORTANT NOTE: This special report is for informational and educational purposes only, based on current data as of March 2016. Do not buy or sell these investments until you have read the current issue of the publications written by Dr. Mark Skousen, Doug Fabian, Nicholas Vardy or Bryan Perry. The Top 12 Stocks for 2016 Copyright © 2016, by Eagle Products, LLC. All rights reserved. No quotes or copying permitted without written consent. Published by: Eagle Products, LLC 300 New Jersey Ave. NW #500 Washington, DC 20001 800/211-7661 Websites: www.MarkSkousen.com www.Fabian.com www.NicholasVardy.com www.BryanPerryInvesting.com www.EagleDailyInvestor.com Introduction The Top 12 recommendations offered in this special report give you one dozen of the best investment opportunities from our team of experts. Dr. Mark Skousen, Doug Fabian, Nicholas Vardy and Bryan Perry contribute their substantial individual investment skills as each provides three picks. You will not want to miss out on these potentially highly profitable opportunities. Dr. Mark Skousen’s Top Three Plays 1) Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) 2) Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) 3) Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) Top Pick #1: Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) Based in Houston, Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) is a business development company (BDC) that makes equity investments and loans money to small and mid-sized companies. Typically, these businesses are cash flow positive, with revenue between $10 million and $100 million. Main Street is well diversified. It has investments that exceed its cost basis in each of its three areas of financing, and the company is well positioned to take advantage of new opportunities. Main Street’s dividend is paid monthly. It has only been cut once since the 2008 financial crisis. As investors will recall, Main Street’s management decided in 2013 to pay an extra dividend twice a year. At the current rate, counting its monthly dividend of 18 cents a share, MAIN’s annual total distribution should be $2.71 or more, for an outstanding yield of 7%. I agree with Wall Street analysts who consider Main Street Capital the “best dividend stock in America,” due to its top management team, insider buying and rising dividend policy. It is one of my largest positions. Management recently has continued to accumulate more shares of its own stock. Main Street’s management team and directors own nearly a tenth of the company. CEO Vince Foster is the largest shareholder in the company. Foster earns roughly $3.8 million in dividends per year on his holdings. That’s about eight times as much as his salary. The company’s directors, owners or board members execute transactions to acquire additional shares routinely, nearly every month — all of them at market price. That kind of insider buying affirms my confidence in the company’s outlook. The management team’s interests are clearly aligned with shareholders. If the business does well, and management is able to increase the dividend, that puts more money directly back into their pockets, as it should be. Main Street sells for only 1.3 times book value now. Now is the time to add the shares to your portfolio. It is rare to find a stock with a high yield, growing dividend, a very solid management team, insider buying and bright prospects for the future. But that favorable situation is exactly what Main Street Capital offers. That’s why I still recommend that you pick up shares of MAIN at market, and further updates will be provided in upcoming issues of Forecasts & Strategies. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Top Pick #2: Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. (OHI) My best bet for real estate this year is Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. (OHI). OHI actually has been my hottest play on this sector for a few years now, as I first recommended it to investors back in 2013. Specifically, OHI was added to the F&S portfolio on May 28, 2013. Here’s the reasoning I gave at that time for investing in it: Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) is a great way to take advantage of the aging of America. This Maryland-based owner of more than 400 nursing and assisted living facilities in 35 states is a real estate investment trust (REIT), and there’s plenty of room for further acquisitions of health-related properties. Omega offers a healthy balance sheet and bottom line. Revenues rose 20% in the past year to $367 million, and earnings advanced 46% to $133 million. With 36% profit margins, OHI’s return on equity (ROE) is more than 13.5%. Omega has had a rising dividend policy for the past 10 years. Today, Omega pays out a 46-cent-per-share dividend (5.4% annualized yield), the highest of its peers. Despite a rising stock price, Omega sells for 13 times estimated earnings in 2013, and it has been beating estimates. In addition, this company is perfectly set up for continued dividend growth. It collects huge rent payments from hospitals all over the country, then passes 90% of its profits on to shareholders. By paying out 90%, Omega also avoids any income taxes, allowing the company to increase payments at even faster rates. OHI continues to benefit from a booming healthcare industry, which has only added to its gains over the last year. Take a look at the chart below and you’ll notice the shares recently pulled back to provide a reduced price for those who want to buy the stock. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) And since Omega’s fundamentals haven’t changed significantly since that original recommendation, OHI still remains a buy at market price. In addition, to limit the effects of a sell-off, place a sell stop 20% below your entry price. Top Pick #3: Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) With a market cap of roughly $9.15 billion, Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM) has mining operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Canada, New Zealand, Ghana and Mexico. It has proven and probable gold reserves of 82.2 million ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 20,000 square miles. The company also produces silver, copper and zinc, and it runs a merchant banking operation. Newmont doesn’t hedge its gold production, allowing investors to benefit fully from future price rises. If gold rallies from here, the combination of higher sales and earnings and the compelling valuation should cause these shares to sprint higher. Although the U.S. dollar is currently performing strongly due to worldwide quantitative easing programs, when the buck begins to falter, securities should retreat back into the safe haven of gold and gold-related stocks. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) About Mark Skousen Mark Skousen, Ph. D., is the editor of the monthly investment newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies, as well as three weekly trading services, Skousen High-Income Alert, Five Star Trader and Fast Money Alert. He also is a professional economist, investment expert, university professor and author of more than 25 books. He earned his Ph. D. in monetary economics at George Washington University in 1977. He has taught economics and finance at Columbia Business School, Columbia University, Grantham University, Barnard College, Mercy College, Rollins College and served as a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University. He also has been a consultant to IBM, Hutchinson Technology and other Fortune 500 companies. Doug Fabian’s Top Three Plays 4) SPDR Gold Shares Fund (GLD) 5) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) 6) SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL) Top Pick #4: SPDR Gold Shares Fund (GLD) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gives investors exposure to the spot price of gold bullion without requiring them to take physical delivery of gold. Over 22 million ounces of gold are held in trust at BNY Mellon, and a share of GLD represents a fractional ownership interest in that gold — share prices are based on the price of one tenth of an ounce of gold. GLD has an expense ratio of 0.40% After languishing in 2015, gold formed a nice rounded bottom. We believe gold is breaking out into a new uptrend. So far, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) GLD is up 12.8% in 2016. It has broken out above both its 50-day moving average and its 200-day moving average, and should continue to gain momentum. In our opinion, there are a few factors causing this positive shift in momentum — namely sentiment, market volatility and monetary policy. Gold began its downturn in early 2013 and was been beaten down almost 33%. Despite having gained more than 51% in the preceding three years of 2010-2013, sentiment quickly turned from bad to worse. Talk of slowing demand from China and India is also adding to the dour sentiment. As investors know, markets trade in cycles and we believe the overwhelming bearishness is beginning to wane. Market volatility also has played a role in the positive turn. Nobody cares about gold when the markets move higher and higher year after year. But when things get bumpy, everyone remembers that gold is a safe haven. We believe volatility will continue to shake markets and more investors will make the flight to safety. While monetary policy does not play a direct role in the prices of gold, it does influence the perception of growth and interest rates. Until recently, the U.S. Federal Reserve had taken a position of jawboning about making multiple short-term interest rate hikes to quell inflation. Without the threat of inflation and under the vow of rate hikes, hard assets such as gold are challenged. We believe this policy path is currently severely challenged — given the state of global economic growth and the fact that the Fed is currently one of the only central banks to be embarking upon financial tightening. Taking into consideration the turn in sentiment, the market volatility and a potential shift in monetary policy, we believe we will see continued gains in gold. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: StockCharts.com) Top Pick #5: Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) tracks the performance of the cap-weighted NYSE Gold Miners Index, and is a play on the performance of companies that mine gold or are involved in the industry. With $5.4 billion in assets invested in 37 different holdings, the fund is well positioned to benefit from the tailwinds for gold described in Pick #4 (GLD) above. The flight-to-safety trade can be seen in not just gold bullion, but also in gold and mining stocks. GDX’s expense ratio is 0.53%, and some of its largest holdings include Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX), Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), and Randgold Recourses (GOLD). Like GLD, GDX has recently broken out above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is poised for a great 2016. As treasury rates and market sentiment go down and volatility goes up, GDX should ride to higher levels. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Top Pick #6: SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL) SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL) What do you get when you marry the power and flexibility of an exchange-traded fund with the skill and track record of “The New Bond King”? The answer is the SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF. Issued by ETF pioneer State Street Global Advisors (SSGA), TOTL is managed by DoubleLine Capital. The lead manager, decision maker and intellectual force behind TOTL is Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and CIO of DoubleLine Capital. Gundlach is considered by many on Wall Street to be one of the best bond fund managers in the market today. He’s one of the smartest guys I know when it comes to bond investing, and that’s why time and again I’ve put my money on Mr. Gundlach via his mutual funds via his actively managed ETF. The fund invests across global fixed-income sectors, with an eye toward shorter-duration bonds, and it takes advantage of the best bonds in the market. TOTL is a great place to hold capital during a stormy market. And unlike bond index funds, TOTL can buy only the best-performing bonds for the portfolio, while also staying away from most indebted bond issuers. TOTL incorporates a core fixed-income strategy that seeks to maximize total return over a full market cycle by actively investing across global fixed income sectors. As for the current holdings in TOTL, they include mortgage-backed securities (54.60%), followed by corporate bonds (19.59%), Treasuries (4.38%), and cash and cash equivalents (17.29%). Less than a year old, this bond fund has already taken in more than $2 billion in assets. Look for that number to continue to climb given A) Mr. Gundlach’s popularity as a bond fund manager, and B) the growing popularity of bond ETFs. The fund operates with an expense ratio of 0.55%. TOTL’s return since inception is 1.32%, vs. 0.71% for 2-year Treasuries, and I expect big things from the fund over the long term given DoubleLine’s success with its Total Return (DLTNX), Strategic Income (RNDLX), and other mutual funds. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) About Doug Fabian Doug Fabian is the editor of the monthly investment newsletter Successful ETF Investing, weekly trading service ETF Trader’s Edge and online ETF resource ETF University, or ETFU.com, as well as the host of the syndicated radio show, “Doug Fabian’s Wealth Strategies” and the weekly podcast “ETF Success with Doug Fabian.” Taking over the reins from his dad, Dick Fabian, back in 1992, Doug has continued to uphold the reputation of the newsletter as a top-ranked riskadjusted market timer as ranked by Hulbert’s Investment Digest. Doug published the book “Maverick Investing” in 2002 and has appeared as a commentator on CNBC, Fox News and CNN. He also has been quoted in the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Barron’s and other publications. Nicholas Vardy’s Top Three Plays 7) Apple Inc. (AAPL) 8) Paypal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) 9) Phillips 66 (PSX) Top Pick #7: Apple Inc. (AAPL) Apple (AAPL) had its best year ever in 2015, delivering what Fortune magazine called “probably the greatest corporate performance in the history of capitalism.” In the fiscal year ended September 30, 2015, Apple’s assets grew from $235 billion to $284 billion, a rise of $49 billion. And Apple generated $25 billion in additional cash flow on these new assets — an astounding return of 51%. Despite this remarkable performance, Apple’s stock dropped 4% in 2015, closing the year trading 22% below its previous high — first hit in April. Apple’s lousy performance stood in stark contrast to many other big tech companies — the so-called “FANG” stocks Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google — which generated returns of between 25% and 100% in what was a boom year for the newer generation of tech stocks. Now, when a stock generates its best year ever for earnings, and the stock still ends the year lower, that means one of two things. Either there is something seriously wrong with the stock… or it is a terrific investment opportunity. I believe it’s the latter. Despite Apple’s remarkable achievements, the 51 analysts that follow Apple stock treat the stock like Rodney Dangerfield: they give Apple no respect. Bearish themes about the fate of Apple abound. But none of them warrant such a sharp drop in Apple’s share price. Nor am I convinced that Apple’s iPhone 6s sales will turn out to be disappointing. Analysts who are focused on misleading supply chain analysis are missing a bigger and more reliable indicator of current iPhone sales: Apple’s App economy. The App economy created by the iPhone is a phenomenon of its own. Since its launch, Apple has paid out nearly $40 billion to developers. Michael Mandel estimates that Apple’s app economy has generated 1.9 million jobs in the United States, 1.2 million jobs in Europe and 1.4 million jobs in China. App sales remained very strong all during calendar 2015, generating more than $20 billion in gross revenue. That’s a 40% increase over 2014. Apple’s stock price is really cheap. After the recent sell-off, Apple’s market cap is now lower than Alphabet’s (Google’s), when you adjust for a mountain of cash on its balance sheet, including $187 billion held overseas. I believe this is a serious mispricing. After all, Google earns less than a third of Apple’s revenues or cash flow. Apple’s quarterly revenue growth is also more than 70% greater than Google’s. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: StockCharts.com) Top Pick #8: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is a familiar name for users of the Internet’s leading payment system. PayPal allows buyers and sellers to make or receive payments from their computers, smartphones or mobile devices on PayPal’s systems. And they can be reasonably assured of a secure transaction. PayPal recently crept back into the headlines when, after spending 13 years under the ownership of eBay, PayPal once again became its own company after it was spun off from eBay in July 2015. Free of the shackles of eBay, PayPal (PYPL) today is an independent payment platform which can now partner with previously off-limits vendors like Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alibaba (BABA) to expand its already huge transaction volumes. For example, Amazon’s customer experience would be enhanced by having one of the most accepted, easiest payment platforms as an option on its site. And PayPal revenues would, of course, get a boost from the increased transaction volumes. PayPal has long held a unique position in the fast-growing e-commerce market. It is already a dominant player as an Internet payment platform, where it enables roughly 10% of the total payment volumes. The next challenge for PayPal is the successful adoption of mobile payments and the offline merchant business. Specifically, PayPal wants to expand into the $25 trillion payment market, where today it holds only about a 1% market share. Smartphone-enabled services at the point of sale in stores, restaurants and gas stations offer particularly good opportunities. PayPal’s dominant payment system operates within the interchange network, which was created by huge bank-sponsored credit-card operators like Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). The network charges a merchant a “take rate” of about $2.80 per $100 transaction. Most of that money — about $2.10 — goes to the card issuer, and the rest goes to processors such as PayPal for facilitating the transaction. On about 40% of its transactions, PayPal takes the full 2.8%, when customers have transferred the money directly from their bank accounts. In these cases, PayPal runs the payments through its own network. In preparation for PayPal’s listing in July 2015, eBay acquired an impressive collection of four companies with various mobile payment capabilities. The purpose was to bundle them together with PayPal before the two companies split. These businesses include Braintree, an online-payment gateway used by other companies; Xoom, which runs overseas remittances; Paydiant, an online storefront for retailers, including Apple; and Venmo, an email social network aimed at millennials. The combination of these four companies gives PayPal depth and scale to immediately move into several new markets and establish itself in the big leagues of the cashless payment world. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Top Pick #9: Phillips 66 (PSX) The collapse in the price of oil over the past year has caused a lot of sleepless nights for investors. The entire energy sector has suffered as a result. The good news is that this won’t last forever. And it also means that there is now value in the sector that we haven’t seen since 2002. As you know, keeping a close eye on “Alpha investors” with a terrific investment record can be a source of great investment ideas. And Phillips 66 (PSX) happens to be Warren Buffett’s favorite stock, with news of his increasing his stake in the company coming out almost daily. In the past, Buffett has generally avoided commodity-related stocks, making his focus on Phillips 66 unusual. When Berkshire first started accumulating shares of Phillips 66, most investors thought it was as a bet on oil heading higher. The reality is more complex. That’s because unlike for the major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX), Phillips 66’s earnings power is not tied as closely to oil prices. Instead, Phillips makes its money on the wide price differentials between the price of crude oil and demand for gasoline. That means that oil plunging to 12-year lows often can be good news for pure-play refiners such as Phillips 66. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Buffett has repeatedly confirmed his endorsement of the management team at Phillips 66. Here’s a good example of why. Phillips 66 enjoys its highest earnings in the refining segment under the current conditions of the oil market. Still, management is looking ahead and is actively working to lower its dependence on refining by strengthening the midstream segment. As proof, the bulk of the company’s capital expenditures of $3.6 billion in 2016 will go toward growth projects in its midstream segment – a segment that had almost negligible contribution to last year’s earnings. By investing heavily in its midstream business, the management of Phillips 66 exhibits a much more balanced, long-term view by focusing on the importance of diversifying its businesses. About Nicholas Vardy Nicholas Vardy is currently editor of The Global Guru, a free weekly e-newsletter, and a monthly investment newsletter, The Alpha Investor Letter, which provides longer-term global investments. He also writes two weekly trading services, Alpha Algorithm and Bull Market Alert, which focus on making short-term profits in the hottest markets in the world. A former mutual fund money manager, he is also chief investment officer of Global Guru Capital LLC, where he manages separate accounts for high net worth individuals. A graduate of Stanford University and the Harvard University Law School, he has a unique background that has proven his knack for making money in different markets around the world. He also is a chartered financial analyst. Bryan Perry’s Top Three Plays 10) Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) 11) DuPont Fabros Technology (DFT) 12) Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI) Top Pick #10: Microsoft, Inc. (MSFT) If you looked at the depressing performance of most stocks in the last quarter of 2015 and into the first months of 2016, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) would stand out like a sore thumb. The technology giant, also known as Mr. Softie, is proving to be one stock where owners of the shares just aren’t too interested in parting ways, regardless of what market conditions are. In a time when everything is going steadily down, MSFT has been more resilient than most. Following a better-than-expected set of 3Q 2015 results, the stock gapped to new multi-year highs on the strength of its cloud computing enterprise and topped estimates by an impressive 13.6%. Many fund managers want this name on their books. Its 2.9% projected dividend yield, earnings momentum, liquidity, upgrade cycle and technical relative strength are all valid reasons to consider owning this stock. As a general rule of thumb, technology is one sector of the market that doesn’t have much of a ceiling on its growth. Technology and the infrastructure needed to make that technology possible are continually evolving at a rapid rate. Microsoft plays ball with the “big boys” of the technology and computing world, fielding as of late 2015 nearly $9.4 billion in assets. Its Windows 10 operating system was active on over 200 million devices, with plans to reach 1 billion devices by 2018. Here’s a chart of Microsoft’s recent performance: Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Top Pick #11: DuPont Fabros Technology (DFT) DuPont Fabros Technology (DFT) is among a handful of very resilient real estate investment trusts (REITs) that operate in the data center space or, for IT folks, collocation assets. DFT engages in the ownership, acquisition, development, operation, management and lease of large-scale data center facilities in the United States. Data center infrastructure companies are a prime beneficiary of favorable cloud traffic growth trends. Currently, two-thirds of Internet traffic is data-center-related. In fact, data center traffic is the biggest component to Internet traffic -- literally two times that of IP or WAN networks. This has prompted analysts to predict that data center traffic will grow by a compounded annual growth rate of 23% through 2019. Dupont Fabros seems to be in step with this prediction. Despite one of the worst beginnings to a year in history for the stock market, DuPont Fabros’ most recent earnings report showed that it matched street estimates of $0.61 per share and posted revenue of $115.9 million, beating Street forecasts of $111.5 million. DFT also recently raised its quarterly cash dividend by 12% to $0.47 per share from $0.42 per share. Why is Dupont Fabros’ share price going up when everything else is tanking? DFT is considered an ultra-defensive stock by investors, a safe haven of sorts. It operates in a growing sector far away from the war-torn front lines of the investing world. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) Top Pick #12: Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (HASI) When we can hitch high dividend yields to cutting-edge growth industries, it makes investing for income that much more exciting. Much of the future for domestic energy use is being leveraged in the renewable energy sector, where vast sums of money are being allocated to drive down operational costs and provide for a cleaner environment. Hannon Armstrong plays a central role in that mission, as it provides debt and equity financing to the energy efficiency and renewable energy markets in the United States. The company offers energy efficient products that reduce a facility’s energy use or cost by enhancing or installing heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems, as well as lighting, energy controls and energy-efficient roofs and windows. HASI shares took a pounding in the last half of 2015, but it is still safe to say that last year was a good one for this REIT. Why? Well, in the first quarter of 2015, the company posted excellent results and provided strong forward guidance. Core earnings came in at $7.4 million, or $0.27 per share, an increase of 35% over the $0.20 per share in the same quarter of 2014. Chief Financial Officer Brendan Herron had this to say about his company’s performance at the time: “The combination of our key growth drivers of an increasing investment portfolio, margin expansion and operating leverage from an internally managed platform all contributed to our strong performance in the quarter More recently, Hannon Armstrong raised its dividend to $0.30 per share, more than a 10% increase. Did I mention that its earnings per share (EPS) of $1.07 for 2015 is expected to jump by 20% to $1.29 for 2016? The stock pays a current dividend yield of 6.20% and is on fairly stable footing. A 4.6-million-share secondary offering midway through 2015 didn’t even phase the stock price. The story underlying the stock is solid and HASI is developing a broad fan base of investors. With the kind of growth the company is displaying, I expect dividend growth will be consistent and the stock price should keep on rising. This is an exciting investment opportunity in my opinion. Data as of 3/9/2016 (Source: Stockcharts.com) About Bryan Perry Bryan Perry serves as the editor of Cash Machine, as well as Premium Income, a supplementary service that uses covered calls as a unique way to generate additional income. He also writes Dividend Investing Weekly, a free weekly e-letter. Before launching Cash Machine, Bryan spent more than 20 years working as a financial adviser for major Wall Street firms, including Bear Stearns, Paine Webber and Lehman Brothers. He is frequently quoted by Forbes, Business Week and CBS’ Marketwatch, and he often participates as a guest speaker on numerous investment forums and regional money shows around the nation. Conclusion The Top 12 recommendations highlighted in this report are intended to tap ripe opportunities to help you profit. You can choose Dr. Mark Skousen’s use of economic indicators to make his picks, the focus on international markets by “The Global Guru” Nicholas Vardy, Doug Fabian’s time-tested, moving stock average investment approach or Bryan Perry’s yield-centered investment focus. The four unique perspectives of our seasoned investment professionals give you the opportunity to assemble a well-diversified portfolio. Sincerely, Roger Michalski Publisher, Eagle Financial Publications www.EagleDailyInvestor.com Eagle Products, LLC 300 New Jersey Ave. NW #500 • Washington, DC 20001 800/211-7661 • www.eaglepub.com/eagle-financial-publications/ TOP12-0316