New Dimension for Offshore Investment

Transcription

New Dimension for Offshore Investment
1 September 2015
Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn
Chief Executive Officer
Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL
Why Invest Globally ?
PROS
• Diversification
• Products (Equities / Fixed Incomes / Mutual Funds / Property Assets)
• Markets
• Currencies
CONS
• FX Risk
• Political Risk
OBSTACLES
• Capital Gains Tax
2
Market Cap Comparison
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
22
25
27
28
29
Country
World
USA
China
Japan
Hong Kong
UK
France
Germany
Canada
Switzerland
India
South Korea
Australia
Taiwan
Spain
Italy
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
Russia
Malaysia
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
Market Cap (Billion USD)
% of World
% of GDP
60,861
22,390
5,462
4,731
3,817
3,391
1,931
1,771
1,664
1,610
1,407
1,077
931
745
703
596
536
452
450
365
337
336
303
227
100.0
36.8
10.3
7.4
6.6
5.5
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
85
146
52
90
1,505
137
69
49
114
236
84
91
78
183
52
26
34
65
189
17
145
107
46
94
As of 24 August 2015
3
0
8
50
-1
7
45
6
40
-4
5
35
-5
4
30
Dollar Index
90
85
1.0
80
75
0.0
70
15
10
5
0
-10
-5
-15
-20
-25
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-15
20
Jan-15
25
Jan-14
Export Growth YoY
Jan-14
Jan-13
55
Jan-12
9
Jan-11
60
Jan-10
10
Jan-09
3
Mar-08
Unemployment Rate
Jan-08
65
Jan-07
11
Jan-06
0.5
Jan-15
1.5
Jan-14
95
Jan-13
2.0
Jan-12
100
Jan-11
2.5
Jan-10
Housing Starts
Jan-09
4
Mar-07
GDP Growth YoY
Jan-08
-3
Jan-07
-2
Jan-06
1
Jan-07
Mar-06
2
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Millions
Macro View - USA
ISM Manufacturing
As of July 2015
4
Stock Market - US
S&P 500 Index
S&P 500
Feb-15
Feb-14
11
Feb-13
400
Feb-12
13
Feb-11
600
Feb-10
15
Feb-09
800
Feb-08
17
Feb-07
1,000
Feb-06
19
Feb-05
1,200
Feb-04
21
Feb-03
1,400
Feb-02
23
Feb-01
1,600
Feb-00
25
Feb-99
1,800
Feb-98
27
Feb-97
2,000
Feb-96
29
Feb-95
2,200
P/E (RHS)
5
Stock Market - US
Nasdaq Index
10
Nasdaq
Feb-15
400
Feb-14
14
Feb-13
900
Feb-12
18
Feb-11
1,400
Feb-10
22
Feb-09
1,900
Feb-08
26
Feb-07
2,400
Feb-06
30
Feb-05
2,900
Feb-04
34
Feb-03
3,400
Feb-02
38
Feb-01
3,900
Feb-00
42
Feb-99
4,400
Feb-98
46
Feb-97
4,900
Feb-96
50
Feb-95
5,400
P/E (RHS)
6
8
46
7
44
EUR/USD
5
1.7
15
4
1.6
10
1.5
5
1.4
0
1.3
-5
1.2
-10
0
1.1
-15
-1
1.0
-20
As of July 2015
Mar-15
48
Mar-14
9
Mar-13
50
Mar-12
10
Mar-11
52
Mar-10
11
Mar-09
54
Apr-15
Dec-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
Apr-13
Dec-12
Unemployment Rate
Mar-08
12
Mar-07
56
Aug-12
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
13
Mar-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Consumer Price Index YoY
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
GDP Growth YoY
Jan-08
1
Jan-07
3
Jan-06
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Macro View - Europe
Manufacturing PMI
Export Growth YoY
2
7
Euro Stoxx 600
Feb-15
Feb-14
Feb-13
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Feb-05
Feb-04
Feb-03
Feb-02
Feb-01
Feb-00
Feb-99
Feb-98
Feb-97
Feb-96
Feb-95
Stock Market - Europe
Euro Stoxx 600 Index
450
20
400
18
350
16
300
14
250
200
12
150
10
100
8
P/E (RHS)
8
90
Jan-15
0
Jan-14
100
Jan-13
1
Jan-12
110
Jan-11
USD/JPY
Jan-10
Dec-14
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Dec-10
Dec-09
Dec-08
Dec-07
3.0
Dec-06
3.5
Jan-09
4.0
Dec-05
4.5
Jan-08
5.0
Dec-04
5.5
Dec-03
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Unemployment Rate
Jan-07
70
Jan-08
6.0
Jan-06
-3
Jan-15
80
Jan-14
-2
Jan-13
-1
Jan-12
120
Jan-11
3
Jan-10
Consumer Price Index YoY
Jan-09
130
Jan-08
4
Jan-07
GDP Growth YoY
Jan-07
2
Jan-06
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Macro View - Japan
Debt as Percent of GDP
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
Export Growth YoY
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
As of July 2015
9
Stock Market - Japan
Nikkei 225 Index
Nikkei 225
Feb-15
Feb-14
5
Feb-13
7,000
Feb-12
10
Feb-11
9,000
Feb-10
15
Feb-09
11,000
Feb-08
20
Feb-07
13,000
Feb-06
25
Feb-05
15,000
Feb-04
30
Feb-03
17,000
Feb-02
35
Feb-01
19,000
Feb-00
40
Feb-99
21,000
Feb-98
45
Feb-97
23,000
Feb-96
50
Feb-95
25,000
P/E (RHS)
10
50
5
8
45
0
7
40
-5
6
35
-10
Export Growth YoY
50
40
30
0
-20
-30
Jul-15
10
Jan-15
55
Jul-14
15
Jan-14
60
Jul-13
10
Trillion
12
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Manufacturing PMI
Jan-13
6.0
Jan-15
6.5
Jan-14
7.0
Jan-13
7.5
Jan-12
8.0
Jan-11
8.5
Jan-10
USD/CNY
Jan-09
20
Mar-09
GDP Growth YoY
Jan-08
65
Mar-08
9
Jan-07
13
Mar-07
Mar-06
11
Jan-06
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Macro View - China
House Price Growth Tier 1 YoY
10
Outstanding Balance of Margin
Purchase and Debt Payment
2.5
20
2.0
1.5
-10
1.0
0.5
0.0
As of July 2015 11
Stock Market - China
Shanghai Composite Index
7,200
45
40
6,200
35
5,200
30
4,200
25
3,200
20
2,200
15
1,200
10
Shanghai Composite
Feb-15
Feb-14
Feb-13
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Feb-05
Feb-04
Feb-03
Feb-02
Feb-01
Feb-00
Feb-99
Feb-98
Feb-97
Feb-96
5
Feb-95
200
P/E (RHS)
12
Market Valuations
Forward PER
25
20
16
15
18
15
14
13
11
10
5
0
USA - S&P500
Europe - Stoxx 600
Japan
Current PER
China
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
12M Forward PER
Thailand
Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 Aug 15
Forward EPS Growth
50
40
30
20
11
11
11
13
10
9
14
0
-10
-20
USA - S&P500
Europe - Stoxx 600
Japan
EPS Growth 2015F
China
EPS Growth 2016F
Hong Kong (Hang Seng)
Thailand
Source: Bloomberg
Thailand data from ASPS Research
13
Date as of 13 Aug 15
Sectoral P/E Valuations
S&P 500
Stoxx
Europe 600
Nikkei
Shanghai
Composite
SET
Financials
16
12
15
8
11
Technology
18
17
16
37
19
Consumer Discretionary
22
17
13
22
21
Telecom
12
20
16
28
19
Consumer Staples
19
19
23
25
22
Healthcare
17
18
36
26
34
Energy
30
13
16
16
8
Utilities
16
13
14
17
14
Industrials
15
16
14
26
22
Materials
15
16
13
34
12
Price / Earning
Source: Bloomberg
Data as of 24 August 15
14
Investment Ideas
15
Example of Asset Allocation
Sector Focus
USA
China
Financials
Technology
Europe
Europe
Financials
Japan
Japan
Financials & Insurance
Automobiles
China
USA
Financials & Insurance
Technology
16
Selected Industries / Major Industries
Banking
Insurance
Technology
Automobile
Retail
Consumer
Discretionary
17
Financials and Banking
Attractive Valuations
• Low P/E, P/BV
Strong Balance Sheet
Recovery Indicators
Higher Interest Rates, Higher NIMs upon
Recovery
18
Banking Valuations
COMPANY
WELLS FARGO
JPMORGAN
ING
SOCIETE GENERALE
CREDIT SUISSE
UNICREDIT
MITSUBISHI UFJ
SUMITOMO
ICBC
KASIKORN BANK
SIAM COMM BANK
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
US
263
US
223
NETHERLANDS
44
FRANCE
30
SWISS
40
ITALY
30
JAPAN
89
JAPAN
54
CHINA
226
THAI
11
THAI
13
MARKET
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
11
9.3
11
8.3
9.3
9.6
10
8.2
4.8
8.1
8.3
1.4
0.9
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.3
3
3.1
6.6
5.5
3.9
3.5
2.5
3.2
6.8
2.8
4.7
Source: Bloomberg
19
COMPANY
MARKET
WELLS FARGO
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
263
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
11
1.4
3
Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock
Source: Bloomberg
20
COMPANY
MARKET
ICBC
CHINA
MARKET
($, Billion)
226
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
5
0.7
6.8
Source: Bloomberg
21
Insurance
High Dividend Yield
Higher Market Returns, Higher Profit
Resilience of Investment, Low Volatility
Value of New Policy Growth
22
Insurance Valuations
COMPANY
MARKET
AIG
SWISS RE
ZURICH
ALLIANZ
AXA
AVIVA
TOKIO MARINE
AIA
PING AN
CHINA LIFE
BANGKOK LIFE
US
SWISS
SWISS
GERMAN
FRANCE
UK
JAPAN
HK
CHINA
CHINA
THAI
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
74
29
38
56
47
29
28
67
81
99
2
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
10
9.6
10
9.2
8.9
8.9
13
16
9.5
12
14
0.6
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.8
1.2
0.9
1.9
1.4
1.6
2.4
1.8
6.0
6.4
5.5
5.4
5.5
2.3
1.5
1.8
2.9
2.1
Source: Bloomberg
23
COMPANY
MARKET
AIG
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
74
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
10
0.6
1.8
Source: Bloomberg
24
COMPANY
MARKET
TOKIO MARINE
JAPAN
MARKET
($, Billion)
28
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
13
0.9
2.3
Source: Bloomberg
25
Technology
Major Investment Theme
High Growth Potential (Online vs. Offline)
Product Innovation
Mega Trend
Social Media, e-Commerce, Wearable Devices
26
Technology Valuations
COMPANY
MARKET
APPLE
FACEBOOK
ALIBABA
GOOGLE
AMAZON
NETFLIX
SOFTBANK
TENCENT
SAMSUNG
US
US
US
US
US
US
JAPAN
HK
S.KOREA
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
588
231
165
413
217
41
69
160
139
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
11
30
25
18
53
206
16
25
7
3.7
4.7
5.1
2.9
13
19
2.5
7.0
0.9
2.1
0
0
0
0
0
0.6
0.4
1.9
Source: Bloomberg
27
COMPANY
MARKET
APPLE
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
588
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
11
3.7
2.1
Source: Bloomberg
28
COMPANY
MARKET
FACEBOOK
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
231
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
30
4.7
0
Source: Bloomberg
29
COMPANY
MARKET
GOOGLE
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
413
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
18
2.9
0
Source: Bloomberg
30
Automobile
Economic Recovery Plan
Model, Technology Innovations
Auto Sales Reaching Record High
31
Automobile Valuations
COMPANY
MARKET
GENERAL MOTORS
FORD
TESLA
DAIMLER
BMW
VOLKSWAGEN
PORSCHE
TOYOTA
HONDA
NISSAN
US
US
US
GERMAN
GERMAN
GERMAN
GERMAN
JAPAN
JAPAN
JAPAN
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
44
52
29
66
46
70
17
195
55
40
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
5.5
6.8
96
7.6
7.9
6.3
4.8
9.0
11.2
8.6
1.0
1.5
25
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.5
1.2
0.9
0.9
5.2
4.8
0
5.1
4.4
4.0
4.1
3.3
2.6
3.9
Source: Bloomberg
32
COMPANY
MARKET
DAIMLER
GERMAN
MARKET
($, Billion)
66
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
8
1.3
5.1
Source: Bloomberg
33
COMPANY
MARKET
VOLKSWAGEN
GERMAN
MARKET
($, Billion)
70
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
6
0.8
4
Source: Bloomberg
34
COMPANY
MARKET
TOYOTA
JAPAN
MARKET
($, Billion)
195
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
9
1.2
3.3
Source: Bloomberg
35
Retail
Steady Growth Continues in the US
Bottoming Out in the UK and Europe
Worldwide Expansion
36
Retail Valuations
COMPANY
MARKET
WALMART
COSTCO
MACY
HOME DEPOT
CARREFOUR
SEVEN & I
CPALL
CENTRAL
US
US
US
US
FRANCE
JAPAN
THAI
THAI
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
206
58
19
146
18
37
12
5
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
14
24
12
21
14
23
26
19
2.4
4.5
3.8
19
1.7
1.9
9.4
3.5
3.1
1.2
2.4
2.0
3.2
1.5
2.3
2.0
Source: Bloomberg
37
COMPANY
MARKET
WALMART
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
206
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
14
2.4
3.1
Source: Bloomberg
38
COMPANY
MARKET
SEVEN & I
JAPAN
MARKET
($, Billion)
37
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
23
1.9
1.5
Source: Bloomberg
39
Economic Recovery
High Profit Margin Business
Beneficiary of EUR Depreciation
40
Consumer Discretionary Valuations
COMPANY
MARKET
STARBUCKS
DISNEY
NIKE
LVMH
HERMES
INDITEX
ADIDAS
FAST RETAILING
US
US
US
FRANCE
FRANCE
SPAIN
GERMAN
JAPAN
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
75
161
89
65
30
80
12
43
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
27
17
25
16
28
29
16
36
10
3.2
6.0
2.5
7.1
7.4
2.1
6.1
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.9
1.3
2.2
2.7
0.8
Source: Bloomberg
41
COMPANY
MARKET
LVMH
FRANCE
MARKET
($, Billion)
65
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
16
2.5
2.9
Source: Bloomberg
42
COMPANY
MARKET
STARBUCKS
US
MARKET
($, Billion)
75
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
27
10.2
1.5
Source: Bloomberg
43
COMPANY
MARKET
INDITEX
SPAIN
MARKET
($, Billion)
80
P/E
P/BV
DIV. YIELD (%)
29
7.4
2.2
Source: Bloomberg
44
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)
Diversification
Lower Fees
Trades Like a Stock
45
ETF Valuations
ETF
MARKET
TICKER
S&P 500
NASDAQ
EUROPE
NIKKEI
CHINA A50
CHINA H-SHARE
US
US
EUROPE
JAPAN
CHINA
HK
SPY US
QQQ US
HEDJ US
1321 JP
2823 HK
2828 HK
MARKET CAP
($, Billion)
158
35
19
23
4
6
Source: Bloomberg
46
Mutual Funds - Europe
AXA World Funds – Flamlington Europe Real Estate Securities
is a master fund of ASP-EUPROP fund by Asset Plus
AXA World Funds – Flamlington
Europe Real Estate Securities
Fund Performance
170
Sector Allocation
160
4%
5%
150
6%
35%
140
17%
130
120
33%
110
100
Office
Retail
Residential
Industrial
Storage
Others
Fund^
19
29
^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of July 2015
74
111
June-15
April-15
AXA World Funds - Framlington Europe Real Estate Securities
FTSE EPRA NAREIT Deleloped Europe Capped
Benchmark
February-15
125
December-14
83
October-14
30
August-14
20
June-14
5Y
Annualized
April-14
3Y
Annualized
February-14
1Y
December-13
YTD
October-13
Performance (%)
August-13
90
Source: Bloomberg / AXA
Mutual Funds – US High Yield Bonds
AXA World Funds – US High Yield
Bonds USD Fund
Sector Allocation
14%
36%
10%
9%
8%
7%
8%
8%
Energy
Basic Industry
Healthcare
Services
Media
Telecom
Capital Goods
Others
Source: AXA
Performance (%)
YTD
1Y
3Y
Annualized
5Y
Annualized
Fund^
3.07
-0.24
22.7
51.7
Benchmark
2.49
-0.55
21.9
49.7
^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of August 2015
48
Property Assets
US and UK House Price Index
350
300
250
200
150
Mar-14
Mar-12
Mar-10
Mar-08
Mar-06
Mar-04
Mar-02
Mar-00
100
UK Nationalwide House Price Index
S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index
Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
Source: Bloomberg
Data as of March 2015
49
50

New Dimension for Offshore Investment

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