Annual Report 2010
Transcription
Annual Report 2010
Annual Report 2010 Table of Contents 2 0. Key figures 1. Letters from the President and the CEO 2. World Economic Review 2010 3. World Economic Outlook 2011 4. Auditor’s Report & Financial Statements Group Andbanc 5. Risk Management 6. Social Indicators 7. Governance Structure 8. Locations and Addresses 3 0. Andbanc Group Key figures 2010 4 (in thousands of euros) VOLUME 2010 2009 Total Assets 3.205.064 2.948.787 Lending 1.637.528 1.623.189 AuMs 7.694.488 7.171.255 Total Income 9.332.016 8.794.444 Core Capital 415.490 340.741 Net income 2010 2009 Net Profit 40.778 44.357 Net Profit before Indirect Tax 53.530 56.065 Net Operating Income 45.104 43.352 Operating Income 131.779 107.754 Net Income 141.684 136.437 58.460 57.890 Net Interest Income RATES 2010 2009 ROE 10,60% 14,41% ROA 1,35% 1,30% 51,38% 50,71% 3,83% 4,60% 22,29% 20,21% Efficiency Non Performance Loans Solvency RATING (Fitch Ratings) 2010 Long Term IDR Individual Short Term IDR 5 2009 A- A- B/C B/C F2 F2 1. Letter from the Chairman 6 Letter from the Chairman Although 2010 saw an increase in growth of 3.8% worldwide, the dynamic of economic policies has been very different in each area. Although the timid global recovery has been one of the obvious factors in 2010, the perception of recovery has not been uniform in all the areas. While the Euro Zone grew by 1.7%, emerging Asian countries did so at a rate of 8.9%. This asymmetric growth was also evident in developing countries. The Euro Zone began the first half of the year with a strong rate of growth, while the USA decelerated its economic activity. Even so, in the second half the Euro Zone reduced this rate and moderated its activity. To the contrary, the USA experienced a good second semester, in which the economy grew. It was not the same for the emerging economies, which achieved a greater rate of growth. The growth of emerging countries occurred was due to two reasons: in the foreign sector, because of the recovery of consumption in the Western countries which began by the export sector and due to the internal demand with a large expansion of credit. The most outstanding fact we can mention this year is that the rate of growth slowed down overall during the second half of the year, but with a consolidation of the worldwide economic growth. Similarly, at the beginning of 2010 there was a new episode of international financial crisis, with the problem focused on Greece. After the drop in its rating at the end of 2009, the real figures for its deficit and debt were known. From that moment, the cost of issuing Greek debt increased until it reached an unsustainable level and Greece had to receive funds from the IMF and the European Union to reduce the level of debt, applying severe austerity measures. The crisis in that country affected other European economies, which saw their rating and ability to deal with acquired debt in danger, mainly Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The first, as a result of the high cost of rescuing the banking sector, was quickly under pressure to accept help from the IMF and EU funds. The other economies saw how their ratings were lowered, higher credit differentials were requested in order to issue debt, and they were forced to apply austerity measures and to make their economies more flexible. With regard to emerging countries, 2010 has seen an economic expansion of almost 9%. The rate of growth of the main economy in this area, China, reached an interannual rate of 12% at the beginning of the year. From that time, this rate gradually slowed down until it reached a rate levels beyond 10%. One of the factors explaining this acceleration is the dynamic of consumption in the USA, which has influenced the positive rate of Asian exports to the country. Similarly, the evolution of internal credit has also played a strong role evidenced by the fact that the volume of new credits has not dropped from the 500,000 million yuan monthly (52,890 million euros). Regarding inflation, this increased up to 6.2% with a clear upwards trend, suffering, above all, tensions in the prices of raw materials and food, which affect the majority of countries of the region. Regarding South America, the different countries in the area benefited from various factors. The majority have been favoured by the strong recovery of raw materials as many of these countries have a strong foreign portfolio, particularly in farming products and minerals. Others have experienced growth in the investment in fixed capital or a great internal demand that have helped them maintain the high rate of industrial activity. But we will have to see how the price increases and the inflation rate in this area evolve. Nationally, Andorra has seen how, for the first time in the history of the country, the Government has issued Treasury notes to provide a solution to public financing. This channel, common in the majority of countries for financing public debt with investors’ 7 money, has been a complete success. In this context, the banking institutions of the countries have also played an important role, ensuring all the sales of the notes. The country has already achieved the challenge of entering the OECD’s white list. Despite this positive news for Andorra, the most complicated situation for the financial institutions was to reduce clients’ distrust and doubts about consultations regarding professional confidentiality and the specific features of the signed agreements. The endorsed agreements guarantee the successful operation of the sector and reinforce the sustainment of confidentiality. In addition, clients’ concerns have waned due to transparency and customer relations improvement orders that Andbanc has been carrying out all year to respond to the new needs and requirements of an increasingly demanding environment. In 2010 our Group celebrated the 80th anniversary of its foundation. We are the oldest bank in the country, and we still make the effort day after day to be the most innovative and competitive and to become the point of reference for private banks. This we will achieve with acquisition and development, and a culture of precision and effort to obtain good results, exceeding the objectives and challenges set for 2010. We have consolidated ourselves as the second bank in the sector, and today we manage, despite the great financial crisis of the last two years, the largest volume of client resources in the history of our bank. We have increased the managed resources in the last two years, and this last year by more than 7%. Profits have remained around the 40 million euros mark, in a year in which we have continued investing in our international expansion and we have maintained a high core capital ratio of 19%. The strategy, management and risk profile of the bank maintain the recognition of the Fitch Ratings agency, which qualifies us with a long-term rating of A- and an individual rating of B/C. This qualification is a reflection of a consolidated framework nationally, dynamic management and good solvency and liquidity, as well satisfactory levels of profit. In 2010, the second year of the implementation of our Strategic Plan 2009-2013, our priority objective was to continue consolidating the international expansion and growth in the traditional business of the country and in private banking, identifying the opportunities and entering those segments where we see high potential for making the business model we are carrying out more solid. During this year we have managed to increase the number of locations following the objectives we have set out. Thus, aside from the banking licence in Panama we have also begun activity under the securities brokerage licence. In Luxembourg, where the portfolio and investment funds manager already operated, we have begun operating with a banking licence and through this, a representative office has opened in Hong Kong. The Andbanc Group is already present in three continents and, in this way, reinforces its internationalisation process. Our growth plan has reinforced our leadership in international expansion, and in a short period of time we have obtained two additional banking licences as well as the control of top-level international managers such as the Mexican company Columbus de México S.A., or the uruguayan company Quest Capital Advisers. We are also working so that very soon we also have a relevant presence in Chile and Miami. These facts will contribute even more to positioning ourselves as a point of reference for private banks in Latin America. In 2011 we will continue with our growth objectives, both in the traditional business of the country and in the private banking area as well as in the consolidation of international expansion. We will strive to preserve what we have accomplished and to achieve the challenges we have set, to position ourselves as a point of reference for private banking. 8 Once again I would like to take this opportunity to thank the excellent team of professionals for the effort they make every day to provide our clients with the best service, our raison d’être. Year after year this effort is rewarded with the trust our clients place in us. The shareholders are developing a long-term project for the bank, aiming to become a global bank for private banking. The world is global and we aspire to be a global bank. Last year I mentioned that we still had some very complicated years ahead of us. But with the perseverance of our work, the trust of our clients and the dedication and commitment of the entire team comprising the Andbanc Group, I am sure we will achieve our objectives. Manel Cerqueda Donadeu Chairman of the Board 9 Letter from the Chief Executive Officer 10 Letter from the Chief Executive Officer With the world economy on the path to sustainable recovery, but at very different speeds, 2010 has ended up being a year full of movement in the markets and in our industry. Certainly, the world economy is at a crossroads where the multiple risk factors reduce the visibility of which path to follow. Tensions in the north of Africa threaten the weak process of economic reactivation begun in 2010. Tensions in the prices of raw materials and, above all, of food are heavy blows to the purchasing powers of families in emerging countries, reducing the participation of domestic factors in their growth and, therefore, leaving these economies in a situation of vulnerability where they depend solely on their foreign sector. These dynamics do nothing but feed the global imbalances that also affected the development of this financial crisis. Meanwhile, in the West, each country decides its strategy for overcoming its dilemmas, without reaching any common agreement on how to deal with the situation. We have no doubt that this will entail further imbalances. The result of our reflections point to the fact that the world’s rate of expansion will slow down in 2011. If in 2010 world growth has been approximately 3.8%, in 2011 we foresee a deceleration of the rate which could be around 3.3%. This moderation is explained by the loss of dynamism of emerging countries that, unable to control tensions in prices, will be obliged to slow down the solid rate of domestic growth factors. In this sense, we foresee for Asian economies a reduction in the economic rate from the 9% seen in 2010 to 7% in 2011. The same dynamic we foresee will be repeated in the emerging countries of South America, the average growth of which will diminish from the current 6.6% to 4.8% in 2011. Developed economies will remain at rates of expansion similar to those on 2010, with the Euro Zone maintaining a low rate at around 1.6%, showing the obvious efforts that, in fiscal discipline matters, many countries in the region are assuming and which will imply a significant reduction in public spending with a substantial impact on the GDP of the area. The United States will also maintain a rate of expansion similar to that of 2010 of approximately 3%. It must be said, in this case, that we estimate the impact of the fiscal policies designed to stimulate the economy will be, at least, 1.4%, leaving us an underlying variation of 1.6%, in other words, a very low rate that is incompatible with the creation of employment. Another worrying aspect of this economy is the lack of response of wealth to the continuous programmes of monetary expansion. Despite having begun the second programme of repurchasing assets, wealth has not moved in the last five quarters. If the strategy of the United States for ending the crisis is focused on this wealth effect, as we believe it will be, we sense that more monetary expansion programmes will be necessary, which will entail more imbalances worldwide in terms of exchange rats the exchange front. Finally, the last of the important developed countries, Japan, will suffer a great deceleration of its rate of growth, which will drop from 4.3% in 2010 to 1.1% in 2011. The significant growth of Japan in 2010 was due to a strong base effect (the GDP dropped 6.3% in 2009, and favoured the recovery of activity), but this effect has already disappeared with regard to this year. Another factor that would explain the rapid deceleration would be the end of governmental subsidies for the purchase of ecological cars and household appliances, which caused a great recovery in the internal demand in the third quarter. We foresee that consumption will remain depressed in 2011, due to the expected flows in capital investment and in the stagnation of the labour market. Only the foreign sector could encourage the economic expansion of Japan (in a poor way after the tsunami in March 2011), thanks to the fiscal programmes in the United States and the strong business integration processes. In this environment of world growth that is clearly lower than the potential and with the polarization of dynamics regionally, with an absolute slowdown of advanced economies and significant growth of the emerging countries (although more moderate than in 2010), we foresee a global level of inflation of 2.5% (similar to that of 2010). It must be mentioned that the regional divergence we estimate in terms of growth also results in an important divergence regarding the evolution of prices. Although we do 11 not expect any type of tension in the underlying price indices in the West, we do foresee persistence in the recovery of prices in emerging countries. Thanks to our business model, and the strong financial solvency, we are in a privileged position to face, with determination, the challenges that may arise in this uncertain global situation and at the same time capitalise the many opportunities that this situation unveils for us. In broad terms, our group has ended 2010 with many achievements and with solid financial results. Once again, the key to these positive results are in the dynamic and strict management and prudence of the bank. In 2010, the second year of the implementation of our Strategic Plan 2009-2013, our priority objective was to continue consolidating the international expansion and growth in our traditional business of banking. The regulatory and legal framework has remained demanding in Andorra, the headquarters of our parent company, as well as in the different countries where our offices are located (Switzerland, Luxembourg, Latin America). In all of them Andbanc has worked actively in the regularisation and rapid implementation of the highest financial standards providing stability to the sector. In Andorra, the monetary agreement has been signed with the European Union and the conditions set out by the OECD to enter the “white list” have been achieved, while maintaining the principles of the Andorran banking system of independence and privacy, have been achieved. Internationally, we continue with the plan for adapting to the MiFID, completing our strict processes with these directives on financial instruments and markets. At Andbanc we maintain the commitment to learning to move independently in a new context of uncertainty in regards with the evolution of the markets. Investing in knowledge and analysis was, for the majority, an intangible asset that was difficult to turn into profit. In our case, this has been the option has arisen which we have chosen. The expected outcome is currently materialising, with a clear and defined direction of our economic view of the world and the financial markets, and what is more important, consistency in the reflections that have prevented us from walking in circles avoiding sudden changes to our recommendations. However, in our particular view of the world we are aware of the degree of difficulty and risks inherent in the diligence of our forecasts. Far from being an impediment, this element encourages us to insist, even more, in being precise. Our final objective is to greatly invest in the strategic development of investors that limit the risks and ensure preservation of the capital. The design of products and the adaptation in our management style to the requirements of a volatile and changing environment where risk is a relevant element, has enabled us to respond to the needs raised by the client, offering a range of innovative products of our own or of third parties. The international expansion has played the leading role in the growth of the assets under management. Our model has enabled us to exceed our all time highs of resources under management, consolidating us as the second bank in the country. In terms of figures, we have been able, despite the instability, to improve our margins. In this sense, the ordinary margin has increased by 4% and is very close to the maximum levels of 2007, something quite atypical in the private banking sector due to great pressure on the margins caused by the economic recession and financial crisis. The growth of the ordinary margin has been achieved by very active management of the plan and of the service commissions, which have increased by 38%. However, the preventive provisions have meant that the net result for the shareholder has remained in line with that obtained in 2009. The Group’s expenses have increased due to the international deployment and attraction of new executives and business managers. In Andorra, we have been able to cut costs for another year and invest in areas that enable us to be more efficient globally in the medium-term. The decrease in general expenses in Andorra has been around 15% regarding the maximums in 2008. This has meant that the general expenses for the Group have only increased 1% in 2010. 12 For another year the bank has decided to maintain a high solvency ratio that at the end of 2010 was 22.3%, making it a best international practice. Our liquidity leaves us in a good position at a time when liquidity is a scarce resource. The rate of efficiency is 51.4%, a very good figure in the sector, despite the large investment in international expansion. The excellent solvency and liquidity of the Group enables us to continue investing, prudently, in sustainable and profitable growth. Growth will be mainly organic, but we will not renounce to the incorporation of acquisitions that reinforce our model and result in the attraction of talent. In the last twelve months, the Andbanc Group has begun international expansion; it has increased AuMs to historic levels and has maintained the principal management ratios, facts that have enabled us to overcome the difficulties of the environment to place us in a privileged position within the sector industry. This success would not have been possible without the motivation, value and effort of all the collaborators in our Group. All of them have embraced excellence as the guiding principle. I would like to thank the loyalty of our clients, as well as the trust our shareholders have in us. I am certain that the next few years will reinforce our positioning and enable us to continue offering, just as Andbanc has done for more than 80 years, the highest level of services and quality in private banking. Jordi Comas Planas Director and CEO 13 2. World Economic Review 2010 Introduction 2010 experienced a global growth of 3.8%. However, this figure conceals very different dynamics for each region, providing evidence for the hypothesis of economic decoupling and the exchange of roles between countries. In short, it clearly reveals that the new global economic order has become established and has come into full effect. The emerging Asian economies have grown at an average rate of 8.9%, whereas the emerging countries of South America have done so at a rate of approximately 6.6%. In contrast, the developed countries have maintained rates of expansion that are clearly beneath their potential. The USA has grown at a rate of 2.9%, whereas the Euro zone, burdened by the imperative of fiscal discipline, has expanded at a much more modest rate of 1.7%. In terms of temporary dynamics, it is worth mentioning that there has been no synchronisation in the quarterly expansion rates. Moreover, zones like Europe and the USA have pursued opposing strategies. Despite this, we have a clear idea of the way the global economy progressed during 2010. Perhaps what stands out the most is that during the second half of the year the rate of worldwide growth slowed down compared to the dynamism seen in the first six months. Nonetheless, the data suggest that by the end of the year (December) growth had been consolidated. In the developed economies, the driving factor was the rise in private consumption, especially in the USA, although the ave- 14 rage rate for the year was still less than that observed in other phases of recovery. The origin of this slowdown can be found in certain restrictive conditions in credit grants to companies and families, but also in the persistent weakness of the labour market. Despite this, the last quarter offered us a glimpse of an acceleration of consumption that would have an “inertia” effect in the first stages of 2011 in the USA. Specifically, the Euro zone saw its maximum activity in the second quarter of 2010, with a rate of annual growth of 4% compared with the first quarter. From then on the third quarter saw a marked slowdown of this rhythm, dropping to 1.38%. Despite this low rhythm, the factors that contributed to this growth were the net external demand, the lukewarm recovery in internal demand and inventory rebuilding. The question was to observe whether the rate of activity would be maintained for the fourth quarter or whether the slowdown process would continue. In the case of emerging economies, the forces for growth are both external and internal. The recovery in consumption in the West is boosting the export sector in these economies, although special attention should be paid to the dynamics of internal demand, with an almost uncontrolled expansion of credit. In short, growth has remained robust in the region. In this sense, the most frequent data indicated that the rate of activity would be maintained in the fourth quarter. In October and November industrial production experienced reasonable rates of growth compared to the previous month (+0.7% and 1.2% respectively), a fact that suggested sustained growth in the industrial sector. With regard to inflation, this has been contained in all the developed economies despite the recent rise in the price of intermediate goods in the final quarter, no doubt due to the increase in the price of raw materials and food. At the same time, the European Commission’s activity surveys confirmed the hypothesis that the expansion, though moderate, would be maintained in the final quarter of the year, and this proved to be the case. There was a 0.30% growth in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, which represents a slight fall (the previous figure was 0.34%), leaving the growth for the year as a whole at 1.7%. For the countries of the OECD, the year-on-year inflation rate oscillated around the 1.8% mark in November. Leaving out energy and food, the variation in prices was still more moderate - around 1.2% y/y, although there was a small rise from 1.1% in October. In the emerging economies inflationist trends are more evident. To the increasing cost of raw materials the highly dynamic domestic activity must be added. These circumstances have meant that many central banks in these economies have instigated policies of tougher monetary conditions. Euro Zone The economy of the Euro zone has been experiencing a moderate degree of expansion since the middle of 2009. In contrast to the US, the tempo in 2010 was just the opposite. Whereas activity slowed down in the US in the first half of the year, all together the countries in the Euro zone experienced accelerated growth. In contrast, during the second half of the year there were signs of a slowdown in the rate of growth in the Euro zone (whereas activity gained pace in the US). 15 From here on, and against the general opinion, the US Economy began an upswing that was to extend throughout the second half of the year. The third quarter recovered rates of growth of 2.6% (a variation compared to the previous quarter in annual terms), to finish the year with a new rise in the rate of expansion up to 3.2%. In short, a growth of 2.9% for the year as a whole compared to 2009. There were basically three factors influencing this growth. On the one hand, a period of family saving was followed by a rise in personal spending by families who finally decided to spend some of these savings. At the point of maximum uncertainty, Americans were saving 6.30% of their available income. At present they are devoting 5.30% to savings. Another factor that would explain the dynamics of growth was the high level of state spending, since public transfers (deficit) explained much of the consumption observed during the third and fourth quarters. The final factor leading to US growth was inventory rebuilding. In terms of inflation, there was a clearer rise in the Euro zone than in the US. The year-on-year CPI rate reached 2.21% in December (higher than the 1.39% in the US) and the prices without energy and food set the y/y rate at 1.13% (also above the 0.64% in the US). The interesting message of 2010 (in terms of prices) would appear to be that the economies that are implementing policies of monetary expansion (consequently inflationary), are precisely the ones experiencing lower inflationary tension compared to those that are not expanding their monetary base (the Euro zone). The United States 2010 revealed two clearly differentiated segments in terms of the economic activity in the US. A clear slowdown in the first half, with a first quarter where the pace slowed down compared to the close of 2009, was followed by a worrying second quarter, in which the rate plunged from 3.7% to 1.7%. The alarms sounded in a situation of high unemployment, in which the expansionary politics of the Fed were not yielding results. 16 Emerging Economies in Asia The region experienced an economic expansion of close to 9% in 2010. Yet despite this figure, the dynamics seemed to slow down as the year progressed. China, the main economy in the region, around which the rest of the countries in the area turn, experienced a process of economic slowdown in 2010, although this could be considered as a healthy outcome. The rate of growth in the first quarter of the year reached a year-on-year rate of close to 12%. From then on, the rate gradually slowed down, achieving its lowest level of expansion in the third quarter. Yet, the rate was still very vigorous (9.60% y/y). The surprise came in the fourth quarter, when everybody expected the slowdown to continue and the rate of growth to remain below the 9.6% of the previous quarter. There was clear disconcertment when the Asian giant published an upswing in activity, with a rising rate of up to 9.8% y/y. At the most pessimistic period in 2010 (July - August), many shared the feeling that the West could slide back into recession, yet Andbanc defended the idea that this hypothesis was unlikely. Our arguments for rejecting the thesis of the double recession rested precisely on some of the factors that have become key in explaining the economic upswing: the high level of saving and a rebuilding of inventory that was far from over. The growth in the US could have been even more intense if some aspects had not acted as an anchor. The net external sector once more contributed negatively to the GDP, since exports did not follow the increase in imports. Another factor worth mentioning is the weakness in residential investment, which worsened in 2010 with a clearly negative effect on the GDP, and which might explain the axing of some types of public aids to the sector. With regard to inflation, far from representing a problem, it has been contained throughout the year. In December, the general price index stood at a year-on-year low of 1.39%. The picture is clearer if the energy and food components are removed from the overall index. This “pure” index closed 2010 with a yearon-year rate of 0.64%. Even though this level would mean a small rise from the 0.59% seen in October, the truth is that we are facing the lowest levels of inflation recorded (since 1957). 17 What are the factors that explain this growth? Without doubt, the dynamics of consumption in the US, which were also reflected in its strong level of imports (i.e. Asian exports), contributed decisively to the dynamics of the region. Aside from the external sector, the progress of credit in the countries in the region has also played a decisive role in the development of domestic demand, and therefore, in the expansion of activity. Specifically, China has seen a permanent rise in credit rates up to the current rate of 19.8% y/y, just when everything seemed to be indicating that credit was beginning to relax after the control measures imposed by the authorities. Despite the efforts of the authorities, prices are continuing to rise in the region, suggesting two things: Either that the governments are a step behind of what the circumstances require, or that the authorities are aware that the rise in prices is due to supply factors that will improve, which would point to a fall in the cost of raw materials and to a reduction in inflation. South America It was predicted that the region would finish 2010 with an economic growth of 6.6%, driven by Brazil and Argentina, with annual expansion rates of approximately 7.8% and 9%. The volume of new credits has not fallen from the 500,000 million Yuans monthly, a fact that places the active balance of the total credits granted at 47 trillion Yuans, i.e. roughly 127% of the country’s GDP. The remaining major economies in the region also enjoyed a remarkable economic expansion over the year. Mexico indicated an approximate expansion of 5.1%, backed by the strong demand from the US, whereas Chile grew by a more than reasonable 5.3%. In terms of inflation, this region (together with South America) is experiencing a greater inflexibility in prices, with a clear upward spiral that threatens to get out of control. In 2010 inflation in Asia rose to 6.2% on average. The price trend in the two Asian giants is especially worrisome, particularly in India, where prices rose to a dangerous 8%. In China inflation stood at around 5% in y/y terms for much of the year. Other countries, such as Indonesia, also experienced tensions in their prices, with rises of 7%. The whole region has benefited from the strong rise in the price of raw materials, especially agricultural and mineral products, since many of these countries have an intensive external portfolio in these elements. Nonetheless, and contrary to what might be thought, in countries like Brazil the net external sector no longer contributes positively to the GDP, given that the strong development of the domestic demand has caused the rate of growth in imports to be substantially above the rate of exports (45% versus 31%). Clearly, the remarkable volumes transacted in these countries’ external trade help to keep a high rate of industrial activity, thereby contributing indirectly to growth. It is true that the rise in the cost of raw materials and of food affects these economies especially. Nonetheless, on removing these external components from the general index, the prices still indicate a worrying trend. Taking away the most volatile factors the rate stands at around 4% for the region. This clearly shows that the pressure on prices in the region is not only a response to the external “shock” due to the rise in the cost of energy and food, but is also due to the robust internal dynamics observed in these countries, which contribute to an accelerated rise in prices. The authorities responded in a variety of ways: By increasing the official exchange rates, raising the required reserves, currency appreciation, controlling the entry of external capital, etc. What has really driven the dynamics of GDP in Brazil up to the estimated 7.8% has been the strong development of investment in fixed capital, which has expanded to over 22%, helped by the significant entry of foreign capital. Internal demand would be the other factor to consider, with a 6.9% y/y variation. 18 In the case of the (swap) rate in euros, the first act showed us the kind face of fixed income investments, with a 10 year swap that “plunged” from 3.59% at the start of the year to 2.32% in August, meaning that a long-lasting strategy would have had a positive performance of approximately 8.9%. The weak expectations regarding the sustainability of the recovery, the hypothesis of a double recession and deflationist tensions were behind this first movement of the rates. It was then time to lower the curtain and await the beginning of the second act. This act, as suggested in the introduction to this section, deals with the opposite scenario, i.e. an abrupt rise in interest rates that went from the aforementioned 2.32% in August to 3.32% by the close of the year; a clearly tragic course for those backing the lasting strategy at the worst possible moment (August), since they would have lost approximately 7%. What led to this movement? The rise in the rate of consumption in the USA, the increase in the price of raw materials and energy, which at same time pushed up the CPI rates, and the resulting fear that this movement would continue. Inflation is a factor that should be borne in mind in terms of the future. As we have noted, the strong internal consumption could apply even more pressure on prices. The trends in wages in countries like Brazil, with year-on-year growth above 10% and an unemployment rate that continues to fall (now close to 6%), suggest that Brazil’s central bank will need to take more measures; by January 2011 it had raised the interest rates by 50 bps placing them at 11.25%. For Andbanc, once again, the key to the enigma is to discover when the market got it wrong. In August, with 10 year swap rates at 2.32%, or at the end of the year, at 3.32%. This is a 10 year investment (therefore the level set by the rates reflects the prospect of cycle and inflation forecast over 10 years), at the very least, between the two aforementioned levels there is a difference of 43% for the short 4 month lapse between one and the other. Can the world change so much in four months? Obviously not. In the section entitled “Prospects for 2011” we will attempt to answer this question, and to see what a reasonable rate level would be, according to our central scenario. For 2010 therefore, a significant rise in inflation was expected in the region, forecast at around 7.2%, clearly above the 6.3% for 2009. Argentina would be the country with the greatest increase in prices, with a y/y rate of 11% in December. Brazil saw its price index rise, above all in the final quarter of the year, going from 4.4% in August to finish at 5.91% in December. At the end of the year, the rate in Mexico stood at 4.4% and the most moderate country in terms of evolving prices was Chile. Also worth noting is the change undergone in the 2-10 year gradient of the interest rate structure in euros. This evolved in a similar fashion, with two clearly different phases. A starting point in which the gradient was structurally high, reaching a maximum of 194 bps in May, from then on the curve began to flatten reaching a minimum gradient of 107 bps in August. In the final quarter, the rise in the 10 year swap rate exceeded the rise in the 2 year period, which led to a new rise in the gradient, closing the year at a level of 176 bps. Performance of the financial markets Fixed Income and Interest Rates: In strictly scenic terms, 2010 was a play with two contrasting acts, as far as interest rates were concerned. Contrasting because two intense but opposing phases were observed, raising the following question: When did the market get it wrong, in the first or in the second part? 19 In regards with the rates in dollars, the script is practically identical. In the first part of the fear (from January to August), the 10 year dollar swap rate fell from 4% to 2.48%. This movement meant a positive return of 10.6% for long term strategies. From that moment on, the movement began its retreat. The rates closed the year at 3.37%, with a negative performance of -6.62% for those who decided to invest in duration. episodes of tension that would definitely affect the rest of the assets. Once the year closed, and looking back, we might conclude that this is what happened, with a minimum of five episodes of stress registered on the sovereign front. In spite of this initial estimate of convulsions for 2010, which ended up revealing themselves clearly, our recommendations suggested the suitability of increasing the exposure to sovereign risk in each episode of stress. This recommendation was spread throughout the year, which points to a certain consistency in our arguments. It should be said that our proposition benefited from a market reaction in line with what had been predicted, since each episode of stress followed a strong process of normalisation. With regard to the gradient for the rate structure in dollars, measured by the difference between the 10 year and the 2 year swap, they began the year with a high level of 272 bps (well above the gradient in the euro curve, which was 194 bps). This fell and registered a minimum of 180 bps in August, and from this moment on it began an upswing to finish the year at 257 bps. In terms of the performances of the main indexes of (nonperipheral) fixed government income for 2010 as a whole, the rise and fall trend described previously suggests that by price we would have had a slightly positive performance (the TIR levels at the close of the year were lower than those at the beginning of the year) and therefore the greater part of the performance would have come from the coupon or carry trade. In the case of the debt in euros, a representative index of AAA government bonds with a 3-5 duration returned 4.13% in 2010. In the case of dollar bonds, the 3-5 year Treasuries Index performed at 5.69% in 2010. To sum up, the European debt crisis as lived in 2010 caused a structural and widespread rise in the level of premiums (in cash and synthetic) in all the governments of Europe, with the exception of the Nordic countries. In this way, Greece’s premium (a country that, together with Ireland and Portugal, were in the first level of risk) in 5 year CDS was kept within a wide range of between 1000 and 700 bps on swap. Ireland finished the year around the 600 bps mark, whereas Portugal ended up close to 500 bps of premium in CDS. Spain closed the financial year close to the 350 bps of premium demanded for protection, and would remain in a second risk level, struggling not to fall into the highest level and attempting to reach the group of sovereign issuers that made up the third category. These were Italy and Belgium, both with a demanded premium some 120 points lower than Spain. Next was a fourth level which included France and Austria, with premiums for protection that reached 100 bps. Germany would represent a step further in terms of security, ending up within the lowest risk category made up of the Nordic countries. Sovereign Credit It should be noted that investors have had to learn to separate their perception of risk, precisely because they have separated the credit market itself into three watertight categories. Sovereign risk, financial risk and corporate risk. This separation has revealed itself in a clear re-pricing of the quoted rates for each category. The separation has been less in terms of the correlation and the superimposing of the variations over time, but rather in a readjustment of the premiums in each category. Corporate Credit The credit spreads (represented by the Itraxx Index) began the year around 65-70 bps on swap. At that moment we came to the conclusion that, at those levels, the credit was “Expensive”, and therefore we did not recommend the purchase. Over the year we issued various warnings that the peripherals crisis was far from over. Our estimates pointed to a series of 20 We established a fair value for the credit at 100 bps, a level at which we would indeed recommend going in. Nonetheless, after a good start, the credit differentials began to rise at a rate marked by the other protagonist of the year, the sovereign risk. In April the differentials for corporate bonds were already above 100, going on to reach a maximum of 140 bps in May. as sovereign risk, was duly noticed. On a national level the disparity in performances is clear, a fact that reveals the existence of these divisions or categories of risk aforementioned. Only the German DAX experienced significant gains over the year (+16%). In France, the CAC-40 ended up half way between Germany and the big losers of the periphery and finished the year with a zero growth of 0.46%. The rest of the important markets have remained in the red, especially Spain (-12,95%) and Italy (-9.77%). In Andbanc we maintained a maxim throughout 2010: “Above 100 bps in the Itraxx, buy. Take advantage of the stress peaks to increase exposure”. In the US, we can speak of a clearly upward movement for the year, according to the level registered on December 31 in the main indexes: +15% for the S&P, +14% for the Dow Jones and +18.16% for the technological Nasdaq. The second half of the year was a constant for credit, which moved within a well defined range of 100-120 bps on swap. In this sense, our recommendations would have had a favourable effect, since the successive episodes of stress, in which the differentials were stretched to 120 bps, were followed by a shrinkage back to the 100 bps mark. Nonetheless, these figures may be misleading and give the impression that it was a placid year as far as the stock exchanges were concerned. Yet nothing could be further from the truth. By the close of August, all these indexes had accumulated losses during the year with a second quarter that could easily be considered dramatic, with a partial performance of -12% for the S&P. It should be noted that this year the market placed a differentiating mark between financial and non-financial risk. This aspect is a key to understanding the behaviour of the corporate obligations. Investors have come to associate country risk with financial risk (or the opposite), leaving non-financial corporate risk isolated with a much more independent behaviour. This would explain why many private companies have ended up paying less than the state obligations. In the end, the final quarter managed to save the chattels of the stock exchange investors, with a rise of 20% on average between August and December. Behind this movement we find some aspects that are hopeful and others that are less so. The second programme of monetary expansion announced by the Fed was a point of inflection, since it provided an impulse for the markets. The evidence that we were moving away from the feared threat of a double recession, together with the increasing belief that the recovery was well on the way, also helped. Stock markets The world’s stock markets had a common denominator in 2010. The rhythm. All of them exhibited the same symptoms, which could be summed up as erratic and directionless until August, followed by an upward trend from then on that would extend until the end of the year. In short, the positive behaviour that the stock markets demonstrated in 2010 was concentrated in the last quarter of the year. The Asian markets took a similar path regarding the time pattern, but a different one in terms of the rate, where they displayed greater enthusiasm. The overall index for the region (MS Emerging Asia in local) registered a gain of 12.26% at the close of the year. Nonetheless, if we take some of the most significant markets, the feeling is still more positive. Beginning with the best performing markets, we should highlight Thailand (+36.3%), Indonesia (+29%), Philippines (+23.5%), Korea In Europe, the negative behaviour of the Eurostoxx 50 Index (-1.83%), or the Eurostoxx (-0.10%), are an indication of the effect that the European debt crisis has had on the stock markets. The negative behaviour of key sectors such as electricity, telecommunications or banking, which the market has labelled 21 (+22.1%), Malaysia (+19.3%) and India (+16.2%). China revealed the disparity between its internal and external market. The Shanghai A Index (which quotes the shares that can only be bought by Chinese nationals) experienced an important slump of -13%, whereas the Shanghai B Index (which lists the shares of companies in which foreigners can indeed invest), showed a clearly positive performance of 22%. still important gains were registered for beef (+22%) and fruit juices. Industrial products also increased their prices substantially over this year, with the beginning of the economic consolidation in the West and the influence of portfolio movements. This was particularly the case for nickel (+32.4%) and copper (31%). Aluminium registered more moderate revaluations this year (+5.85%). In South America the performance of the stock markets was also positive, but with a clearly lower intensity than that observed in the emerging Asian countries. The MSCI Latam Index registered a gain of +6.55% in 2010. By country, Argentina was the clear winner, with a striking revaluation of 54.3%, followed by Chile (37.6%), Colombia (+35.4%) and Venezuela (32.7%). In another group, and with more moderate gains, stands Mexico, which finished the year with a gain of 21.6%. Brazil’s market slowed down the most in 2010, with a very minor revaluation of 1%. Energy remained clearly beneath other raw materials, although oil rose by 8.92%. However, gas maintained the downward trend as a consequence of the struggle being faced in implementing the new extraction mechanisms (horizontal perforation), which would seem to be able to increase the existing reserves of this material considerably. Foreign exchange markets In terms of the foreign exchange markets, 2010 could be summed up in a single phrase: “All the emerging nations gained, while the West lost”. In essence, both the two main currencies, the euro and the dollar, have lost value against the other currencies, especially against those of the emerging countries. Raw Materials We have been warning for some time about the important influence and the participation of portfolio flows on the final price of raw materials. Although on a global level, during 2010 direct foreign investment displaced financial investment, this did not mean that the total volume in investments of a speculative nature fell. More specifically, we have reasons to believe that in the case of raw materials, the participation of the ETFs and other financial instruments used to obtain exposure to these assets has increased noticeably. Beginning with the euro, it decreased in value against the currencies of South America. Specifically, it fell 11% against the Brazilian Real and 12% against the Mexican Peso. A similar trend was seen in relation to the currencies of the Asian countries: -10% against the yuan, -9.4% against the Korean won and -6.5% against the HK dollar. The weakness of the single currency in 2010 was not only seen against the currencies of the emerging countries; the euro also depreciated against the currencies of developed countries (although here the base or closing effect of 2009 played an important part). Thus, the euro fell by 6.7% against the US dollar and by a significant 18.7% against the Japanese Yen. The result a distortion of prices; or at least a disconnection between the real end demand (created by the agents that make up the commercial circuit) and the price of the asset. In short, we have witnessed a strong rise in the price of all raw materials, yet which has not been associated with an increase in the real demand. The US dollar followed a similar trend to that of the euro in relation to the Asian currencies and those of the southern cone, although obviously with lesser intensity. In the case of the South American currencies, the US dollar fell in value by 4.7% against the Brazilian real and by 4% against the Mexican peso. Agricultural products proved to be the real protagonists of 2010, with revaluations averaging 43%. From greater to lesser price increase, there was cotton (+76%), followed by coffee (+66%), sugar (51%), wheat (+39%) and soy (37.6%). Lesser but 22 The depreciation against the Asian currencies was less, since these are more closely tied to the yuan and therefore to the peg that the latter maintains with the US dollar. The Chinese authorities have opted for a policy of slow appreciation of the yuan. This can be clearly seen in the growth of this currency against the dollar in 2010, where the American currency only fell by 3.48% against the yuan. In the case of the Korean won, the depreciation of the dollar has been similar (-2.18%) 23 3. World Economic Outlook 2011 Introduction dynamics of expansion of the emerging countries was the appearance of tensions in the prices, and this is precisely what is happening, a fact that suggests that the progress experienced in recent years was simply imbalanced. On a worldwide level, real private investment has recovered this past year, displacing portfolio investments, an indicator that is without doubt optimistic in terms of future global growth. The participation of the emerging economies in the perception of the real global investment has grown from 10% to 40% in only ten years. This would largely explain the growth of these countries, the aggregate GDP of which now represents 50% of the world’s GDP. Even more importantly, the contribution of the emerging nations to the dynamics of the annual GDP is 73%, which to put it bluntly means that if these economies halt, the world comes to a halt. In the struggle to control these imbalances, the emerging countries, both in Asia and South America, have begun to implement austerity policies that we expect will end up having a moderating effect on overall growth. Specifically, for Asia a growth of approximately 7.5% is forecast for 2011, quite below the 9% registered in 2010, and for South America an expansion of roughly 5% is forecast, also lower than the 6.6% in 2010. In the case of the developed economies, these will grow at a rate below their potential, therefore incompatible with the creation of employment, which means that we cannot expect improvements in the labour market in these economies. Here it is important to mention the existing disparity between the different countries regarding the policies employed. While the English-speaking economies (and Japan) have opted to try to avoid the crisis by means of reactivation programmes, budgetary deficits and monetary expansion to generate inflation (of assets and of prices), the Euro zone has opted for fiscal discipline, i.e. assuming the crisis and adjusting the imbalances, a fact that will doubtlessly mean a disconnection of cycle in relation to the former economies. Nonetheless, this polarised world situation involves evident risks that make us extremely wary with regard to the coming years. In the first place, it perpetuates the global imbalances (chronic commercial deficits) that were one of the reasons that brought about the current crisis. In the second place, the strong development rate of these economies, very intense in the consumption of raw materials and in many cases inefficient from the point of view of per capita energy consumption, exerts a strong pressure on the prices of “commodities” that at the same time hinders their own growth; an aspect to consider if we take into account the participation of these economies in global growth. The result of all this will be a Euro zone that will grow at a rate close to 1.6% whereas the US will grow at a rate of 3%, 50% of which will be due to public spending. These risks are already becoming evident in many parts of the world. The only aspect that could have endangered the strong 24 The big global risk today is uncontrolled prices. This is less the case in developed economies, in which we do not see risks; in the emerging economies however, the levels of inflation will continue to increase in 2011 due to the confluence of several factors. For these countries it is not only a case of an external supply shock, but also the fact that internal dynamics contribute to speeding up the rise in prices. Secondly, the massive entry of investment flow into these economies will continue to feed the uncontrolled loans to consumption, which will fuel inflation. And finally, although the authorities have begun to take measures, the perception is that they are being timid, moving at a slower pace than what the circumstances require. and in our opinion this will be a factor that will dampen economic expansion, counterbalancing the positive effects of the relaxed monetary policy. The necessary adjustment in the consolidated balance of European banks will be slow and will involve a certain degree of hostility by the financial bodies towards the real private economy. All in all, this will result in a moderating effect on the rate of growth, which will lead to an economic expansion that is unusually slow. Behind this more moderate cycle positioning lies the continuous monitoring of the dynamics in the banks’ credit activity, which in 2010 revealed a less than hopeful trend that we believe may continue in 2011. This will therefore be a risk to follow very closely throughout 2011, since in our opinion uncontrolled prices would severely harm the capacity for private purchasing in the emerging economies, preventing the desirable transition of these countries from an exporting growth model to a model based on domestic demand. At the beginning of 2010, the active balance of banking loans to the private sector in the Euro zone was 15.5 trillion euros. At close of year, the balance was 15.3 trillion, which means that not only have credits not been given, but they have been reduced. If we break down this figure, we will gain a better understanding of what this trend conceals. Loans to companies were reduced by 0.40% in 2010, and loans to other financial bodies were cut back even more intensely, by 7%. On the positive side, the only item of credit activity that has grown has been the loans to families, although the increase during the year was only 3%. This growth in family credit was concentrated in the third quarter, and was the result of the rise in consumer credit. At that moment, all our interest focused on the future evolution of this aggregate, since if the rise were to continue into the fourth quarter, we could establish that the banks’ confidence in the private economy had been re-established. It was not to be. The final data, referring to the fourth quarter, indicated that the credit activity slowed down significantly in the final phase of the year, with consumer credit registering a fall compared to the previous quarter. The Euro zone In a situation of normality, and taking into account the current level of many macro indicators and monetary policy indicators, one could easily come to think that economic recovery is merely a question of time. For example, the European Commission’s surveys on business confidence suggest that it is at a relatively high level in the case of services, industry and consumption. This fact, backed by an accommodating orientation of the monetary policy and the measures implemented to re-establish the operation of the financial system, would have been enough in the past to provide support for business activity, for the labour market, and lastly, for internal demand. The problem with this is that the situation is not a normal one, nor is the crisis a common one, and thus neither will the recovery be so. The banks’ leading role in previous cycles has made them responsible for their own misfortunes, and in the process, into the origin of the difficulties being suffered by the developed economies. The dynamics of its balances therefore explain to a great extent the economic outcome in the future, 25 go a substantial decline in a year or two. The appearance of strong inflationary tensions in all the emerging economies and the hardening of the monetary conditions in these countries will almost certainly end up slowing down the rates of activity in these economies - a fact that will affect the external sector of the Euro zone. Another aspect to consider is the high price of raw materials and the cost of energy, clearly influenced by global portfolio movements. This circumstance will also have a delaying effect on the recovery. According to sources consulted, it has been calculated that a 10% increase in the price of oil would reduce growth by 0.25% quarterly (1% annually). We also cannot ignore the tensions persisting in some segments of the market such as the sovereign front. The high premiums that the economies of the European periphery have to pay for placing their debt push up the financial cost, which hampers the already precarious situation even more. A possible intensifying of these tensions could end up infecting the real economy. In the end, the big question for us is whether these fragile credit dynamics will be extended during 2011. We are inclined to believe that this will be the case, which means that this economic recovery will not be able to count on the traditional support of credit, or at least, not with the intensity of other occasions. The reasons? The major exposure of the banks to the private sector and the high risk that this involves with maximum rates of outstanding debt. Another aspect that sustains this hypothesis is the need to adapt the banks’ balances to the new regulatory framework imposed by Basle III. The new solvency requirements make it necessary for them to increase their own capital in relation to the assets adjusted according to risk. This is precisely what the banks are doing; adjusting the risk to their assets by reducing the exposure to private lines (risk) and increasing the importance of government assets. Without forgetting their obligations in the area of liquidity. According to our calculations, there is a long way to go before the banks comply with the levels of liquidity established in the new framework. This means they still have to transform balance in order to increase the weight of the easily liquidable assets. How? By reducing the weight of the assets with very little liquidity, i.e. loans to the private sector. In short, for 2011 we foresee a growth in the Euro zone of close to 1.6%; slightly lower than the growth registered in 2010, which was approximately 1.7%. With regard to inflation in the Euro Zone, the rise observed during 2010 only manifested itself in the general price index, which rose from 1% y/y in January to 2.2% in December. Nonetheless, the underlying y/y rate (without energy and food) remained stable at 1% throughout the year, which confirms our suspicions that the tensions in prices are not due to factors of demand, but to external shocks, and therefore may be temporary in nature. In addition, we are detecting private spending dynamics in the Euro zone that suggest a clear moderation in their evolution. This fact would also point to a relaxation of prices for the second and third quarter of 2011. Regarding the year as a whole, we do not foresee price rising above 1.8%. In short, we foresee that the banks will not support economic expansion to the same extent that they did in previous years. Yet this is not the only element making up our weak recovery thesis. We believe there is a risk that world trade will under- 26 What is our long-term forecast for the US economy? The answer has a lot to do with our opinion regarding the success of these policies. And our position in this respect is clear. We do not believe that they will have the desired effects. We appreciate that anyone might be confused by this affirmation; ultimately we have to recognise that the figures are what they are, and they improved notably in the second half of the year. Nonetheless, a meticulous reading and objective reflection provide us with enough evidence to make us feel confident in our affirmations. Firstly, although the financial wealth of the US has recovered considerably since its minimums, it is still a long way from the levels attained before the crisis, and what is worse, three quarters have gone by without it responding to the Fed’s stimuli. According to our calculations, to recover the level of wealth that the Americans had before the crisis (65.6 trillion dollars), would require a minimum of two and half years of markets like that of 2009, with the stock market going up by 60% between the first quarter and the last (which is when the wealth recovered by 4.9 trillion dollars). In short, the Fed would need to cause an increase of 150% in the markets. Something we see as being unlikely at present. The United States Strictly speaking, the US economy experienced an acceleration in the rate of economic expansion in the last part of the year. These dynamics can be clearly seen in the jump that the GDP experienced in the final quarter, rising from 2.56% to 3.2% of the annual rate. Worth highlighting is the fact that at the middle of the year it seemed that the US economy was more likely to go back into recession than the opposite. At the time everything indicated that, at best, the USA would finish 2010 with an unusually weak economic growth. From that moment, both the Federal Reserve and the government embarked on a frantic spiral of stimulation policies. This effort caused a substantial change in the level of the main economic indicators, including the GDP. It goes without saying that basing the economic cycle on an artificial increase of wealth is, at the very least, dangerous. So that we all understand what we are talking about, the Fed’s last asset purchasing programme, for an amount of 600 billion dollars, represents 7% of the current monetary mass (M2). With these resources the Fed aims to increase the market value of the financial assets and therefore the wealth of Americans. In parallel, it keeps the interest rates at a level that in any other circumstance would be, to be more exact, at 0%. The final aim pursued by the central bank is to stimulate aggregate demand via the wealth effect, and thereby stimulate the expansion. 27 Secondly, the rise in GDP is due to a great extent to the rise in consumption. Yet this, far from increasing in a spontaneous and natural way, has been caused by a substantial flow of public transfers. The underlying private consumption remains depressed, demonstrated by the fact that American consumers are devoting a high percentage of their available income to savings. While it is true that this saving has slowed down, falling from 6.3% of income in June to the current level of 5.3%, it is also true that even today it is much higher than the 1.30% being saved in 2007, which hints at the lack of enthusiasm among private consumers. cannot, in any instance, act as a substitute for the strength of the private sector. This is why we foresee that this observed rise will be temporary in nature, unless of course the private sector responds to the stimuli provided by the authorities and treats the aid as an economic impulse. Something which is unlikely as things stand. In short, it is possible that during 2011 the US economy may still benefit from the inertia effect of the rise seen at the end of 2010. In addition, it is necessary to consider the government’s new attempt to stimulate the economy with the recent commitment to reducing taxes, extending unemployment subsidies and finally going back to increasing public spending by 200 billion dollars. In the end, having made the calculations, we can easily determine that this figure injected into the economy represents approximately 1.5% of GDP. I.e. the economic expansion will have this extra amount. Thirdly, we are sceptical about the functioning of the Fed’s unorthodox measures, because they are simply not having any impact on what really matters - the labour market. In this regard, the Fed has itself declared that they may need three to four years before starting to see a clear improvement in employment. Until this happens, consumption, and therefore the economy, will need the artificial impulse of expansionary policies; a dangerous circumstance given the maximum threshold of debt issuing allowed by the US congress has already been exceeded. Our estimates situate the GDP for the US in 2011 at approximately +3%. Which means that, knowing what we have already mentioned, half of the growth will come from the government’s public transfers, leaving us with a “real” underlying growth similar to that of Europe, of approximately 1.5%. Fourthly, the role of the banks has not been, and will not be, pro-cyclic; in the same way as the dynamics in the aggregate balance of the banks in the Euro Zone suggest a clear disaffection of the financial system towards the real private economy. We have calculated an important effect of an exodus of resources by the banks from the private sector to the public sector and to the activity of trading. These dynamics will continue in 2011 for the same reasons as those described in the section referring to the Euro Zone, and obviously this does not favour economic expansion. With regard to the risk of inflation, both the general price index and the underlying rate maintained a downward trend throughout 2010, and in the second case, we are at the lowest level since records began. In terms of 2011, and despite the fact that many are warning of possible tensions in the prices, we maintain the thesis that these will be well-contained throughout the year, and therefore do not foresee price rising higher than 1.5%. Lastly, and finally, this imponderable phenomenon called the economy has shown us once again that it rarely allows itself to be influenced by the interference of government actions. The economy answers only to the coordinated action of the individuals and economic agents taking part in the real transactions. It is our duty to warn that this revival in some indicators has a lot to do with public injections, and that the state intervention 28 effect on the rate of expansion. In contrast, the persistence in the flow of direct foreign investment to Asia, in response to the policy of monetary expansion in the US, will help to ensure that this slowdown in rate is not abrupt. The stage for the controversy is set. These countries accuse the US of causing the rise in the price of raw materials with the Fed’s asset repurchasing programmes, and the US responds that the former are themselves responsible for inflation in the region by “fixing” the price of their currencies artificially at unreasonable levels, providing them with significantly increased competitiveness while keeping the internal dynamics at a dangerously high rate. As usual, the reality is more complex. Nonetheless, this reveals that the emerging economies today possess all the elements needed to lose control of inflation and, therefore, endanger their growth. On the one hand, they are suffering from the effects of the rise in the price of raw materials and food, and on the other are not able to limit the growth in loans, that are once again rising to rates of 20% in the case of China. In addition, they have already announced that they will not use the currency to combat inflation. That is to say, they will not revalue the currency to slow down growth and reduce inflation, which leaves us in a situation where the external sector of these economies will once again be running at full steam. Certainly, a worrisome panorama for the long term since it perpetuates global imbalances. Emerging Economies in Asia The expectations of growth for the region fall for 2011, to stand at approximately 7.5%. Despite maintaining a more than acceptable level, this rate is considerably less than that seen in 2010, which was +9%. The problems are beginning to be clearly seen in these economies, particularly in the most vigorous ones, since they are experiencing strong tensions in prices that endanger the dynamics of growth. We could say that this problem poses a dilemma for the authorities in these countries, since they have to choose between accepting the risks of uncontrolled prices or conversely sacrificing growth. It is clear that there could be a reason why the authorities are not so convinced of the need to toughen up monetary conditions. This would be related to the possibility of them foreseeing an imminent fall in the price of raw materials, something which would relax the external factors that led to the increase in domestic prices. It should be said that we at Andbanc also believe that the price of raw materials is highly inflated, and should therefore fall. Until now, all the measures taken by the central banks have been less intense than what the circumstances require. The proof of this is that they are not succeeding in relaxing prices. In countries like China, the general price index has attained maximum levels in 28 months, while the industrial prices reveal a similar trend. In India, the general price index has risen sharply to 11.8%, and will not fall beneath 7% in 2011. We are aware that the important flows in global portfolio movements (speculative investment) have pushed the price of raw materials up to a maximum, and that this fact has little to do with a rise in the real demand; a dangerous situation that makes us very wary about these types of assets. In spite of Nonetheless, and despite the timidity of the authorities in their actions to control inflation, the toughening of the monetary conditions, with increases in interest rates and in the reserves required for the banks, will end up having a slowing down 29 this, no one can say yet how flexible the ambition of investment capital may be, and therefore we cannot anticipate when the price of raw materials may begin to settle down. has also been affected by a significant rise in inflation, headed by Argentina with y/y price rates of 11% in December 2010. In 2011 inflation will continue to rise in the region and will increase in all the countries without exception. Despite this, leaving out Argentina, inflation in the region will not exceed 4%, which represents a more moderate level than that observed in the emerging Asian economies with price rises of approximately 5.4% in 2011. In short, everything points to an even bigger rise in prices in the Asian economies for 2011, with inflation standing at approximately 5.5%, and this has serious implications for the future growth of the region. Why? For the average family in a developed Western economy, spending on food accounts for approximately 18.4% of their income, and therefore a rise in the price of food is of relative importance. In contrast, for a typical family in countries like India or China, spending on food represents 40% of their income, and so a rise in prices represents a strong blow to their remaining capacity for consumption and therefore for growth. By country, perhaps the most notable would be the internal dynamics observed in Brazil. The growth of 7.8% in this economy in 2010 was driven by the strong (foreign) investment and a healthy trend in domestic consumption. All together it has produced growth that could hardly be considered sustainable given the strong rise in the current account deficit and in inflation. Nonetheless, these dynamics will continue in 2011, since real wages continue to rise at a rate of 6.6%, far above the gains in competitiveness, which will have an inertia effect and will help to maintain expansion in 2011. As a counterpoint, inflation problems have caused the adoption of a tougher monetary policy by the Central Bank of Brazil, which is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2011; they have also given rise to public spending containment programmes with the aim of containing prices. All together, the effect would be to slow down growth, which is why the forecasts point to a growth of 5.1% in 2011, lower than in 2010 (7.8%). Emerging economies in South America The expectations of growth in the region will also be reduced in 2011. The rate of expansion is forecast to be approximately 5%, lower than the 6.6% registered in 2010. However, this reduction will not affect all the countries to the same extent; Brazil and Argentina will see a greater fall in their rates, partly due to the strong growth observed in 2010 that saw them expanding by 8% and 9% respectively, a fact that will ensure an important base effect. Mexico should also experience a certain degree of slowdown, although less intensely so. Among the major economies in the region, Mexico will grow at a lesser rate, nevertheless this will remain above 4%, backed by the forecast 3% growth in the US and the close relationship between the GDPs of these two countries. In Mexico the rate of expansion will also slow, but in a more limited way. The forecast growth for this country in 2011 is 4.1%, which means reducing the current rate of 5.1%. The dynamics of growth this year will be backed up by the 3% expansion forecast in the US. Drilling down to which sector will contribute more to the growth, it is clear that the external sector will play the dominant role, driven by a high and stable oil price, as well as an advantageous situation in terms of labour costs due to the relative weakness of the currency against the dollar. Lastly, Chile should be one of the few countries, if not the only one, that will see an increase in the rate of expansion in 2011, rising from 5.3% in 2010 to the 6% forecast. In spite of being uncertain for many countries, the global situation is certainly constructive for Chile, since it will benefit from the extremely high price of copper. The high level of the business confidence and consumer indexes, as well as the strong rise in work incomes, will also contribute to the expansion in this country. In the case of prices, it should be mentioned that the region 30 Forecast for the financial markets in 2011 once again. Inflationary arguments, which have increased the expectations of the ECB increasing the rates and have therefore pushed up the TIRs, are not compatible with our central scenario. We do not foresee important inflationary tensions, and if the general price indexes do increase, it will have been because of the offer shocks and not due to a solid evolution of the internal dynamics. In this environment, a toughening up of the monetary conditions by the ECB would make no sense. Fixed Income and Interest Rates In October of 2010 we warned of the massive purchase of government debt by the banks in Europe and in the US. The frantic activity of the banks to accumulate debt responded to a carry trade strategy, i.e. taking advantage of the strong gradient in the curve, but also to the fact that the traditional activity of the banks was not providing positive results. This strategy brought the level of returns to a historical minimum of 2.12% in the 10 year Bund and of 2.40% in the 10 year Treasury. At this time we detected that the banks had purchased 470 billion Euros in the last two years, a sum equivalent to the purchases carried out in the whole of the 2000 – 2005 period. This fact made us extremely wary about this type of asset, given the possibility that the banks would begin to sell paper. This turned out to be the case. In the last two months of the year the sales of bonds by the banks were higher than any other that we have records of. To sum up, based on the levels mentioned in the TIRs, even at the current levels, we consider the entry into duration strategies as a good opportunity, since our economic vision is compatible with 10 year rate levels that are much lower than the current ones. In this sense, any rise in the performance of the long tranches will represent an opportunity to buy duration in a strategy for maintaining assets. Sovereign Credit Throughout 2010 we warned that the episodes of stress on the sovereign front could be repeated, and that each one of these episodes would represent a buying opportunity. Sure enough, we have counted at least 5 episodes of crisis and each episode has been followed by a relaxation in the premiums. This has explained to a great extent the upward movement in the TIRs of the Bund and the Treasury, up to the current levels of 3.25% and 3.50% respectively. For 2011, our forecast is that these extensions in the performance of the bonds will not go far beyond the levels seen at the beginning of the year. We have set the average levels (maximum) to which the TIRs could reach at 3.5% for the Bund and 3.75% for the Treasury. Once these levels are reached, we consider that it would be a good opportunity to buy in the long segments of the curve. The discourse changes slightly for 2011. Although we are sure that we will still see more tensions in this segment of the market, we believe that we are close to that final solution posed at the beginning of 2010. Those peripheral countries that may really represent a problem for the euro, such as Spain, have implemented tough measures of fiscal discipline that are already having results in terms of a reduction of the deficit. The restructuring of their financial system should be able to clear doubts about the possibility that the banks can carry the country forward (as in the case of Ireland). In addition, the activity dynamics, in spite of being poor in this country for 2011, are a long way from suggesting a new economic slump. The arguments on which we base our recommendations, in the first place, the obligation of the banks to continue buying government bonds en masse in order to adapt their balances to Basle III. The TIR levels have increased due to the banks’ own action in their carry trade strategy. Massive purchases have provided extraordinary results in the maturity portfolios and this was the time for profit taking (sale). With the gradient again showing maximums, and with the ECB’s extraordinary lines of funding yet to be used, it makes a lot of sense to re-initiate this strategy, which could push the TIRs down All in all, our message for 2011 is that we will once again see new episodes of stress, but these will be less numerous, and thus there will be fewer opportunities for entry. 31 At present, despite the normalisation in these issuers’ premiums, it is still a good moment for entering risks such as Spain or Portugal. throughout the year. It is a subordinate instrument, and as such, in the event of nationalisation or public rescue, it has a good possibility of suffering reductions in the principal. In spite of this, there are names that are worthwhile. In addition, under Basle III it is an instrument that does not have capacity, and so the institutions have an incentive to repurchase in tandem. Financial Corporate Credit The doubts about the pending losses in the financial system (above all in Spain) have originated tensions in the sovereign front, and by extension, throughout the European financial sector at the beginning of the year. We have adopted a position contrary to the market, assuming for the Spanish banks a potential public injection far lower than the consensus which situated them between 80 and 100 billion euros. The potential losses we estimate in mortgage loans would add 49.9 billion (assuming 15% of arrears and 50% of loss in housing value). We estimate the potential losses deriving from housing development loans at 79.8 billion and in awarded property we forecast a potential loss of 30.5 billion. Altogether, the losses could total 160 billion, a figure higher than the system’s reserves and endowment which total some 100 billion. In short, a capital deficit of the system of some 60 billion in a tension scenario. A manageable amount for the state. Non-financial Corporate Credit We closed 2010 at levels of 100 bps in the differential offered by European corporate credit. In general the recommendation during 2010 to purchase above 100 has been beneficial given that each expansion towards the 120 bps mark was followed by a contraction to the 100 bps mark. For 2011 we again have to make a very precise use of the semantics, given that at the current levels we cannot say that credit is cheap, yet neither is it expensive. For those looking for a significant contracting (15-20 bps) of credit in the short term, we believe that there will be better opportunities for entry, and would therefore recommend waiting. In contrast, for those aspiring to an attractive (risk adjusted) 2-3 year differential, now is a good moment for entering. In addition, the talk of an increase in the volume of the EFSF and an extension of its field of activity, distance the financial credit from the hypothesis of being seen immersed in a process of quittance. Nonetheless, the political discrepancies within the rescued countries encourage the possibility that the bondholders of these banks might be forced to “share” the bill for the rescue, and therefore increase the spectre of a quittance process in the senior financial debt. In short, we adhere to what we recommended throughout 2010: “Enter in credit above 100 bps”. Stock markets We have suggested on numerous occasions that we see the stock exchanges as “artificially supported” markets (due to the Fed’s asset repurchasing programmes) and “Limited from above” by an economic growth lower than the potential and which will not allow the levels of employment, consumption, and therefore sales, to recover. The growth in profits is seen to be limited in the long term. It should be remembered that the sector is immersed in a regulatory change (Basle III) that will exert a positive influence in the long term, since it aims to improve risk ratios. We recommend senior financial debt as a first level of subordination below government debt. Until 2013 it would be guaranteed “de facto”. Nonetheless, we would avoid Greek or Irish banks. We like the Portuguese banks in the short term, and we particularly see value in the major Spanish banks. All in all, regarding 2011, we could still see an acceptable rate in company returns, which could stimulate revaluations of the markets. This premise is based on four points: The labour costs projected with a high and permanent rate of unemployment will remain below what has been initially forecast, a As for the subordinate debt, we believe that it will suffer 32 fact that will continue to support the expansion of profits; the strong gradient of the curve will allow the financial system to implement strategies of duration with an interesting financial margin; the improvement in credit differentials (and especially High Yield ones) suggest that the financial conditions of the companies have improved substantially, which will favour the margins. This is why we believe that investors will make a positive reading of the growth in business profits, which we situate at approximately 11% in Europe and in the US. To sum up, with this profit rate forecast, with a discount rate (represented by the TIR) at levels of 3% - 3.25%, and an average volatility of 22%-24%, we estimate a potential revaluation for the western stock exchanges of approximately 9% in the case of the Eurostoxx, and around 11% for the S&P. these assets (non-liquid materials) for 2011. It must be emphasised that we are in no way forecasting a linear performance of the exchanges, so that these revaluations will not be attained gradually. On the contrary, there are factors, such as a hitherto unseen volume in the banks’ business portfolios, which make us think that the markets may perform in an unusually erratic way. This assertion suggests carrying out a strategy of asset management, selling when the indexes near the levels of revaluation set for the year as a whole, and buying at the low end of the range. Raw materials may continue their upward trend in 2011, however we consider the current levels to be irrational. It is difficult, not to say impossible, to know when prices will begin to ease off. At the moment, nobody can estimate how flexible are the ambition, appetite or capacity to assume the risks of the global portfolio flows (speculative capital). Aspects such as the structural weakness forecast for the dollar may continue to support these assets, but in general, we see their progress as a movement, in principle, already exhausted. Raw Materials Foreign exchange markets If we observe the development of the “Baltic Dry Index” as a thermometer of the global economic evolution, this points to a clear deceleration, which would agree with our basic scenario of a weak global cycle. The prices of raw materials have always reflected the global dynamics of maritime transport (real demand). However, this relationship has ended abruptly. While the transport of commodities in bulk fell considerably during the second half of 2010, the price of non-liquid raw materials went up by an average of 25%. The strong distancing between the cash prices and futures contracts point to the major influence of the portfolio movements in the evolution of prices. For this reason, we are extremely wary in the case of We consider that the appropriate valuation level for the euro dollar would be approximately 1.40, and we therefore forecast that the exchange rate should aim for this area. The continuous episodes of sovereign risk in Europe have damaged the euro, bringing the exchange rate down from the 1.43 in November to 1.29 in January 2011. Once the situation is normalised in this segment of the market (country risk), it will return to the 1.40 mark. The Fed’s monetary expansion, the containment of deficits in Europe and the increasing interest of the Asian economies to purchase debt in euros, would also point in this direction. 33 4. Auditor’s Report & Financial Statements Andbanc Group 34 35 Financial Statements Andbanc Group Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. and subsidiary companies Translation of financial statements originally issued in Catalan and prepared in accordance with the regulatory financial reporting framework applicable to the Company (see Notes 2 and 23). In the event of a discrepancy, the Catalan-language version prevails. 36 Consolidated balance sheets as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 (in thousands of euros) Assets 2010 2009(*) Casch and deposits at Central bank of the OECD 13.890 12.987 INAF (Andorran National Institute of Finances) (note 20) 18.066 18.066 423.297 423.449 (152) 328.526 328.739 (213) 1.611.225 1.512.569 110.998 13.961 (26.303) 1.594.259 1.506.114 106.574 10.501 (28.930) 948.844 864.776 (2.983) (2.738) 3.153 (50) 4.987 952 83.791 (3.044) 801.088 790.440 (4.036) (2.603) 3.697 (50) 4.987 44 10.966 (2.357) 14.500 17.380 (2.880) 8.533 9.604 (1.071) Intangible assets and capitalised expenses (note 8.a) Intangible assets and capitalised expenses Amortization fund 12.189 38.685 (26.496) 12.444 36.384 (23.940) Tangible fixed assets (note 8.a) Tangible fixed assets Depreciation Provision for depreciation of fixed assets 116.838 182.786 (63.443) (2.505) 114.499 173.592 (58.665) (428) Prepayments and accrued income Interest accrued and not collected Prepayments 25.584 24.039 1.545 29.585 29.308 277 Other assets Current operations Inventories Acquired options Others 20.631 381 13 4.297 15.940 28.801 3.668 12 4.976 20.145 3.205.064 2.948.788 Banks and credit institutions (notes 4 and 5) Banks and credit institutions Other financial intermediaries Allowance Credit portfolio (notes 4 and 6) Loans and advances to customers Customers’ overdrafts Customers’ bills Allowance for losses Investment portfolio (notes 4 and 7) Bonds and other fixed income securities Allowance for losses Securities fluctuation reserves Equity investments in Group companies Securities fluctuation reserves Other equity investments Shares and other titles of variable income security Equity securities Securities fluctuation reserves Gains on consolidation (note 8.b) Gains on consolidation Amortization fund TOTAL ASSETS The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 37 (in thousands of euros) Liabilities 2010 2009(*) 18.992 19.149 2.690.281 195.397 2.494.884 2.531.846 92.147 2.439.699 23.000 - 7.958 5.822 2.136 6.766 5.392 1.374 - - 800 2.800 Accruals Interest accrued not paid Advance collections 16.940 14.032 2.908 21.552 17.500 4.052 Other liabilities Current operations Issued options Suppliers and other creditors 31.603 492 1.533 29.578 25.934 945 24.989 Share capital (note 11) Share capital 78.061 78.061 78.061 78.061 296.651 15.612 17.856 121.150 8.792 63.242 69.999 218.323 15.612 17.856 39.491 10.365 65.000 69.999 40.778 40.778 - 44.357 44.357 - - - 3.205.064 2.948.788 INAF (Andorran National Institute of Finances) (note 4) Creditors (note 4) Banks and credit institutions Client deposits Debts represented by securities (note 4) Provisions for liabilities and charges (note 9) Provisions for pensions and similar obligations Other provisions Subordinated liabilities General reserve (note 11) Reserves (note 11) Legal reserve Guarantee reserves Statutory reserves Voluntary reserves Consolidation reserves Revaluation reserve Share premium Net income (notes 10 and 11) Profit for the fiscal year Dividends Minority Interests TOTAL LIABILITIES The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 38 Consolidated memorandum of accounts as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 (in thousands of euros) Memorandum accounts 2010 2009(*) Contingent liabilities Sureties and other guarantees Documentary letters of credit issued or received and confirmed to customers Acceptance of trade bills and similar items 107.419 105.511 173 1.735 81.376 79.645 326 1.405 Commitments and contingent risks Commitments and operational risks Commitments and actuarial risks 261.953 254.737 7.216 330.444 323.725 6.719 Futures operations (note 14) Forward currency operations Forward operations 2.357.099 1.140.140 1.216.959 2.654.302 1.894.333 759.969 Deposit of securities and other securities under custody (note 18) Deposit of securities under custody of third-parties Deposit of securities under own custody 6.138.398 5.203.499 934.899 5.568.058 4.651.250 916.808 Other memorandum of accounts items under administrative control Guarantees and commitments received Other memorandum accounts (note 19) 1.607.441 1.410.463 196.978 1.485.570 1.309.000 176.570 10.472.310 10.119.750 TOTAL MEMORANDUM OF ACCOUNTS ITEMS The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 39 Consolidated income statement as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 (in thousands of euros) Income statements 2010 2009(*) 61.743 5.550 38.176 18.017 83.825 11.456 50.378 21.991 (16.625) (1.418) (14.942) (265) (40.482) (2.271) (38.095) (116) (14) 10 (24) - 9 33 (24) - 45.104 43.352 86.675 94.764 (8.089) 64.402 69.641 (5.239) 9.024 (822) 4.558 3.933 986 369 27.223 (1.759) 4.688 21.329 2.238 727 881 1.460 141.684 136.437 Personnel expenses Personnel, Board of directors and Indemnities Social Security Other personnel costs (40.078) (33.298) (4.095) (2.685) (36.771) (30.083) (4.224) (2.464) General expenses Materials External services Taxes (note 20) Other general expenses (32.721) (240) (14.697) (13.749) (4.035) (32.414) (225) (15.462) (13.402) (3.325) Amortization of assets net of recoveries (note 8) Allocation to the provision for depreciation and amortization of fixed assets (10.097) (10.097) (9.035) (9.035) (327) (327) Interest and related income INAF and other financial institutions Loans Bonds and other fixed income securities Interest and related charges INAF and financial institutions (liabilities-assets) Customer deposits Others Income from equity securities Equity investments in Group companies Other investments Shares and other equity investments Net income from companies consolidated under equity method NET INTEREST INCOME Net commissions for services Commissions accrued for services rendered (note 3) Commissions accrued for services received Results of financial operations Net allocations of the securities fluctuation reserve (note 7) Exchange gains Results from securities trading (note 3) Results of futures operations Profit (loss) from companies consolidated under equity method Other ordinary results GROSS OPERATING INCOME Provisions for decline in value of assets net of recoveries (note 8) 40 (in thousands of euros) Income statements 2010 2009(*) 58.461 57.890 (17.882) (19.028) 1.146 (9.992) (11.018) 1.026 (881) 2.299 - (2.000) 39.698 48.197 Extraordinary results (note 13) 1.080 (3.840) Consolidated profit for the year 40.778 44.357 - - 40.778 44.357 NET OPERATING INCOME Allowance for loan losses net of recoveries Allocations to allowance for loan losses and insolvencies provision reserve (notes 5, 6,and 7) Recovery from allowance for loan losses and insolvencies provision reserve Provisions for liabilities and charges (note 9.b) Allocations to the general reserve PROFIT FOR THE YEAR Net income attributed to minority interests Net income attributed to the Group The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 41 Consolidated statement of Sources and Application of funds for the years ended December 31, 2010 and 2009 (in thousands of euros) SOURCE OF FUNDS 2010 2009(*) 71.338 69.945 40.778 17.882 822 11.856 - 44.357 9.992 1.760 2.796 9.035 2.005 - 21.770 670.279 8.540 13.230 234 670.045 - Net increase in liabilities 78.185 - Creditors: customers Debt securities 55.185 23.000 - Net decrease in assets - 163.817 - 163.817 Sales of permanent investments 843 5 Sale of equity investments Sale of fixed assets 843 5 - 35.730 23.127 35.730 23.127 207.866 927.173 From operations Result for the fiscal year Net allocations to allowance for loan losses and insolvencies provision Net allocations to asset depreciation reserve Net allocations to securities fluctuation reserve Net allocations to other reserves (pension and other reserves) Depreciation and amortization Losses on sale of fixed assets Losses on sale of own shares and equity Profit on sale of fixed assets Profit on sale of own shares and equity Others Positive change of liabilities minus assets INAF and financial institutions (liabilities-assets) Banks and credit institutions (liabilities-assets) Other financial institutions (liabilities-assets) Others (assets-liabilities) Cash and OECD central banks Investment portfolio minus equity investment Sources generated from financing activities External capital contributions Others TOTAL SOURCE OF FUNDS The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 42 (in thousands of euros) APPLICATION OF FUNDS 2010 2009(*) (1.140) (2.643) (1.224) 84 (959) (1.684) (157) (6.073) (157) - (6.073) Net decrease in liabilities - (852.064) Creditors: customers - (852.064) (184.060) (49.685) (904) (35.631) (147.525) (2.428) (47.257) - (20.751) (16.708) (20.751) (16.708) (1.758) - (1.758) - - (207.866) (927.173) Funds applied to operations Application of other funds (pension fund, etc.) Others Positive change of assets minus liabilities INAF (assets - liabilities) Banks and credit institutions (liabilities - assets) Other financial institutions (assets - liabilities) Others (assets - liabilities) Net increase in assets Cash and OECD central banks Loans : customers Investment portfolio minus equity investment Permanent investment purchases Purchases of equity investments Purchase of fixed assets Funds applied Dividends Supplementary dividends from prior years Decrease in reserves Others TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS The attached notes, from 1 to 23, form an integral part of these consolidated financial statements. (*) Exclusively for comparative use. 43 Notes to the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2010 1. Activity de Comptabilitat), published on July 23, 2008, came into force. However, this Chart of Accounts is not applicable to banks and other operating entities belonging to the financial system. Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. is a Limited Liability Company incorporated in 1930, protected by the law of Andorra, with registered offices in Escaldes-Engordany (Principality of Andorra). The consolidated financial statements are pending approval by the General Meeting of Shareholders. Management, however, considers that they will be approved without significant changes. On May 10, 2002, the Extraordinary Meeting of Shareholders adopted a resolution to change its registered name from Banc Agrícol i Comercial d’Andorra, S.A., to Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. (henceforth Andbanc or the Bank), together with a corresponding modification of article 1 of its articles of incorporation. The Bank’s corporate purpose is to carry out banking activities, as defined by the regulations of the Andorran banking system. It can undertake any activity related to its corporate purpose. The figures included in the documents that make up these consolidated financial statements are expressed in thousands of euros. b. Generally accepted accounting principles The generally accepted accounting principles described in note 3 below have been used in the preparation of these consolidated financial statements. No obligatory accounting principle having a significant effect on these consolidated financial statements has been excluded during their preparation. As a member of the Andorran financial system, Andbanc is subject to the supervision of the Andorran National Institute of Finances (hereafter “INAF” (in Catalan)), which is the Andorran financial system’s authority and which performs its functions independently from the General Administration. The Bank is also subject to compliance with local Andorran legislation (see note 20). c. Basis of consolidation for the financial statements The consolidated financial statements as at December 31, 2010 correspond to the financial statements of the Group and have been prepared by the Bank’s Management. 2. Presentation basis and consolidation principles The main subsidiaries of Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. as of December 31, 2010 and their main corporate details are the following (in thousands of euros): a. True and Fair View The accompanying consolidated financial statements comply with the format established by the decree, pursuant to the normalized Accounting Plan to be implemented by all operators in the financial system by January 19, 2000, as published in the Official Gazette of the Principat d’Andorra Number 5, year 12, on January 26, 2000. The consolidated financial statements were prepared on the basis of Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A.’s accounting records, and those of its subsidiaries (henceforth the Group) as at December 31, 2010, so that they present a true and fair view of the Group’s wealth, financial situation, consolidated results, and source and application of funds. On January 1, 2009 the General Chart of Accounts (Pla General 44 (in thousands of euros) Company Address Activity Caronte 2002, S.L.U. Andorra Services Clau d’Or, S.L. Andorra Món Immobiliari, S.L.U. % holding direct % holding indirect Interim dividend Equity Results 100% - - 40 - Real estate company 10% 90% - 30 (1) Andorra Real estate company 100% - - 27 (4) Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. Andorra Investment fund management company 100% - - 3.732 2.509 Andbanc Bahamas Limited Bahames Bank 100% - - 25.351 1.349 Nobilitas N.V. (*) Dutch Antilles Holding company (*) 100% - - 1.170 (2.036) Savand, S.A.U. Andorra Financial services 100% - - 2.165 134 Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. Andorra Insurance 100% - - 3.045 159 AndPrivate Wealth S.A. Switzerland Asset management - 100% - 3.297 (1.636) Columbus de México, S.A. Mexico Asset management - 50% - 662 (75) Quest Capital Advisers, S.A. Uruguay Asset management - 100% - 1.660 1.230 Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg Luxembourg Investment fund management company 100% - - 1.241 (502) Andbanc (Luxembourg) S.A. Luxembourg Bank 100% - - 9.668 (2.332) AndPrivate Consulting, S.L. Spain Services 100% - - (187) (190) Andbanc Wealth Management LLC USA Financial services - 100% - 33 (381) APW International Advisors British Virgin Islands Asset management 100% - - 302 180 Andbanc Representaçoes Lda Brazil Financial services 100% - - 190 (88) AND PB Financial Services, S.A. Uruguay Representative office 100% - - 50 (88) Andorra Capital Agrícol Reig BV Holland Financial services 100% - - 32 14 Andbanc (Panamá) S.A. Panama Bank 100% - - 2.476 (1.012) Andbanc Luxembourg Limited Hong Kong Luxembourg Financial services - 100% - 97 - And Private Wealth (Xile) Chile Financial services - 100% - - - (*) This company owns 100% of Egregia B.V. and 99% of Zumzeiga Coöperatief. Egregia B.V. owns 100% of AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. and 50% of AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. (Xile), while Zumzeiga Coöperatief U.A. owns 100% of Quets Financial Advisers, S.A., 100% of Andbanc Wealth Management LLC, 50% of Columbus de México and the remaining 50% of AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. (Xile). The purchase agreements for Quest Financial Advisers, S.A. and Columbus de México, S.A. include potential deferred payments depending on the companies’ future results (see Note 8.b). The parent company (Andorra Bank Agrícol Reig, S.A.) has loans to Zumzeiga Coöperatief U.A., through Nobilitas N.V., in the amount of 15,525 thousand US dollars, which the subsidiary has used for the creation and acquisition of its subsidiaries. 45 Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. is an investment fund management company, whose funds are marketed by Andorra Bank Agrícol Reig, S.A. Both the management company and the investment funds are subject to the supervision and control of the INAF. Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. Andbanc Bahamas Limited is a bank that started operations in 2001, having obtained a banking license on July 9 of that year under the name of Banc Agrícol (Bahamas) Limited - Banking and Trust Licencee. It is supervised by the Bank Supervision Department of the Central Bank of the Bahamas. Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A. is the Group’s insurance company. Resident in Andorra, its principal activity is the management of unit-linked life insurance, as well as other types of life insurance and other lines of business. Andbanc (Panamà), S.A. is a bank that started operations in 2009 after obtaining its international banking license from the Superintendencia de Bancos de Panamà, by which it is supervised. Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg is an investment scheme management company resident in Luxembourg. It was founded by the Andbanc Group in 2009 in the context of the Group’s internationalisation process. Andbanc Luxembourg, S.A. is a bank founded in 2010 that started operating that same year. As a bank resident in Luxemburg, it is supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier and by Banque Centrale du Luxembourg. At the reporting date, Andbanc Luxembourg, S.A. is awaiting final registration by the INAF. Andbanc Luxembourg Limited Hong Kong is a company created in 2010 to provide financial services. It is 100% owned by Andbanc Luxembourg, S.A. It is the Group’s first company based in Asia. AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. is a portfolio management company headquartered in Geneva. It is the result of the merger of the Group’s Swiss subsidiary with P&P Portfolio Planning, a company acquired in 2007. Columbus de México, S.A. is an asset management company that operates in the Mexican market. The Group acquired a 50% stake in 2008. Andorra Capital Agricol Reig, BV is a company resident in the Netherlands. Created in 2010, it issues fixed-income securities, which are marketed by the Group. Quest Capital Advisers, S.A. is a portfolio management company resident in Montevideo. It was acquired by the Andbanc Group in 2009. The asset management company AndPrivate Wealth, S.A., resident in Chile, and the company Andbanc Representaçoes Lda., resident in Brazil, are companies set up to provide financial services. Andbanc Wealth Management LLC is a financial services company resident in the United States. It was created during 2010 as a subsidiary of Zumzeiga Coöperatief. The Group also owns 100% of various companies that provide services distinct from those that constitute the Group’s principal activity, resident either in Andorra (Caronte 2002, S.L.U., Clau d’Or, S.L. and Món Immobiliari) or in Spain (AndPrivate Consulting, S.L.). APW International Advisors, resident in BVI, is an asset and investment fund management company that joined the Group in 2007 with the acquisition of the Swiss group P&P Portfolio Planning, whose parent company merged with AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. APW International Advisors is a direct subsidiary of Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig. The Group companies that have been registered with the INAF and have started their operations since December 31, 2009 are as follows: And PB Financial Services, S.A. is a company created for the establishment of the Group’s representative office in Uruguay. Savand, S.A.U. is a company that provides financial services to private customers in Andorra. It is 100% directly owned by 46 Group companies that start operating in 2010 Date registered with INAF Andprivate Consulting S.L. 25/01/2011 Andprivate Wealth (Xile) 11/02/2011 Andbanc Luxembourg Limited Hong Kong 09/02/2011 Andorra Capital Agrícol Reig B.V. 14/12/2010 Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg 30/03/2010 Andbanc Wealth Management LLC 09/02/2011 that make up the net worth of the subsidiaries, and in the income statement all items of income and expenditures which determine the subsidiaries’ results. All subsidiaries in which the shareholding of the Group is greater than 50% whose activity is not different to that of the Bank itself are consolidated in this manner and they constitute, with the Bank, one decision-making unit. Under proportionate consolidation the balance sheet and income statement of the Group include the Group’s share of the assets and liabilities, income and expenses of the entity to be consolidated, adjusting where necessary to maintain consistency. In all other respects the process is similar to that of full consolidation. Jointly controlled entities whose activities are similar to the Group’s are consolidated by this method. The companies Clau d’Or, S.L., and Món Immobiliari, S.L.U., are not consolidated, as they are immaterial with respect to the Group’s aggregate data. The definition of the Group is in accordance with the decree of January 19, 2000, issued by the Andorran Government. The consolidation methods used are the following: - Full consolidation of the following companies: Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig S.A., Andbanc Bahamas Limited, Nobilitas N.V., Egregia, B.V., Zumzeiga Coöperatief, AndPrivate Wealth S.A., APW International Advisors, Andbanc Representaçoes Lda, AND PB Financial Services, Andbanc Wealth Management LLC, AndPrivate Consulting, S.L., Andbanc Luxembourg Limited Hong Kong, Savand S.A.U., Caronte 2002 S.L.U., Andorra Capital Agrícol Reig, B.V., Quest Capital Advisers S.A., Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg, Andbanc (Panamá) S.A., AndPrivate Wealth S.A. (Xile), and Andbanc (Luxembourg), S.A. - Proportionate consolidation of Columbus de México, S.A. Consolidation by the equity method consists of substituting the book value by which an investment is stated in the balance sheet with an amount relating to the corresponding percentage held by the parent company in the equity of the investee company. The results of the companies consolidated by the equity method have been incorporated into consolidated income. The subsidiaries which have been consolidated are those where the direct and/or indirect holdings of Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A., are equal or greater than 20% without exceeding 50% or, if they exceed 50%, where the activity is different from that of the Bank. All significant balances and transactions consolidated companies have been eliminated. between Where necessary, adjustments are made to the individual financial statements of subsidiaries to bring their accounting policies in line with those used by the Group. - Consolidation by the equity method of the following companies: Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. During 2010, Seguretat i Serveis, S.A. was excluded from the scope of consolidation, following a significant decrease in the Group’s interest in the company. 3. Comparative information, accounting principles and valuation rules Full consolidation consists of including in the balance sheet of the parent company all the assets, rights and obligations Following INAF instructions, the profit obtained from the mar- 47 Comparative information gin charged to clients for the sale of securities is recognised in the income statement under the heading of fees earned for services provided. If this rule had been applied to the financial statements for 2009, the effect would have amounted to 11,872 thousand euros. Forward contracts in foreign currencies are valued according to the exchange rate on the last business day before the balance sheet date. The exchange gains and losses from forward contracts are fully recorded in the consolidated income statement. The other memorandum accounts in foreign currencies are translated into euros using international market exchange rates, according to the rate on the last business day before the balance sheet date. Accounting principles and valuation rules The main accounting principles and policies applied are the following: Income and expenses in foreign currencies are translated into euros at the rates prevailing on the date of the operations. a. Accruals basis Income and expenditure are recorded on an accruals basis, independently of the monetary or financial flow from which they arise. All interest accrued and expenses incurred are recorded, except for the interest on doubtful and bad debts, which are recorded when they are collected. d. Allowance for loan losses The allowance for loan losses covers losses that could occur in the recovery of any loan at risk. The allowance covers specific, general and country risks. b. Recording principles The allowance for loan losses, in accordance with the Andorran financial system’s accounting plan, is calculated according to the following criteria: All of the Group’s rights and obligations, including those of a contingent and future nature, are recorded when they arise, either in the accounts or in memorandum accounts. - The specific provision, which covers all types of assets and memorandum accounts, is determined based on individualized studies of the quality of the risks contracted with the principal debtors and borrowers on the basis, mainly, of guarantees available and the time expired since the maturity date. Variations or transformations of the value of previous rights and obligations are recorded as soon as they are known. According to standard banking practice, the transactions are recorded on the day they occur, which can differ from the corresponding value date, which is used as the basis for interest income and expense calculation. - The general allowance is based on 0.5% of the net loans and fixed income securities with banking institutions and 1% of the net loans to customers and fixed income securities, except for the part covered by cash pledged by contract or collateralized quoted securities within the advance value limit of these securities, mortgage-backed loans and loans and credits on income securities issued by the central administrations of the OECD countries or expressly guaranteed by these institutions. c. Valuation of foreign currency transactions Assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than the euro, and spot currency transactions for hedging, have been translated into euros using the average international market exchange rate prevailing on the balance sheet date. Gains or losses from said translations and the result of operations in foreign currencies realized during the year are recorded under results of financial operations in the consolidated income statement. - The country risk allowance is determined by a global analysis of the abovementioned risks with the criteria of maximum caution to determine the necessary coverage. For 48 the global risk evaluation, the development of the payment balances, the debt level, the charges to cover the debt, the debt rates in secondary international markets, as well as other indicators and circumstances in the country are considered. statement. This portfolio includes the fixed-income securities and unlisted fund acquired in 2008 from the Money Market Funds managed by Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. In accordance with the authorisation from the INAF dated 26 January 2009, these securities were included in the Bank’s held-to-maturity portfolio at their market value as calculated by an independent expert. They will continue to be carried at this amount until maturity. Any future write-downs of these securities would have to be recognised in income in the year in which they occur or become known. During 2010, as a result of repurchases by the issuer and sales of securities from this sub-portfolio at prices above the amount at which they were initially recognised in the Bank, gains were generated that have been taken to voluntary reserves (see notes 7 and 11). Similarly, losses in the amount of 3,664 thousand euros have been recognised in the income statement. During 2010, in compliance with INAF Technical Notice 198/10, independent experts were commissioned to review the appraisals of the mortgage collateral for the loan portfolio, and additional provisions for loan losses were recognised based on the results of the appraisals (see Note 6). e. Investment Portfolio Investments are stated in accordance with the following classification: - The trading portfolio includes the securities acquired for short-term sale. The securities assigned to this portfolio are stated at their market price as of year end or, if there is none, at the price calculated by an independent expert. The differences arising from the net valuation variations are recorded net (excluding the accrued interest on fixed interest securities), whether they are positive or negative, under Results of financial operations in the consolidated income statement. - The permanent equity investments portfolio includes investments in equity securities made by subsidiaries and investee group companies consolidated by equity method, as well as the minority interests in companies whose activity is complementary to financial activity and which are used to service the Bank’s activities on a permanent basis. The latter companies are stated at their acquisition price. If this value is lower than their book value, a provision is made for the difference and is charged in the consolidated income statement. - The securities assigned to the held-to-maturity investment portfolio, which includes the securities that the Bank has decided to hold to maturity, are shown at their adjusted acquisition price (the difference between the acquisition price and the redemption value is apportioned periodically). The differences are recorded under Interest and related income in the consolidated income statement. - The ordinary investment portfolio includes fixed interest or equity securities not included in the portfolios mentioned above. The fixed income securities are stated at their adjusted acquisition price (the difference between the acquisition price and the redemption value is apportioned periodically). Potential net losses due to changes in market price or, if no market price is available, due to changes in the value calculated by an independent expert are provided for in the securities fluctuation reserve (equal to the total of the positive and negative differences, up to the negative limit) charged to the income statement. The results of any sales that may arise are recorded in the consolidated income statement as an extraordinary result. In case of gains, they are accrued on a straight-line basis over the residual life of the security sold under the heading of results from securities trading. This portfolio requires no fluctuation reserve for variations between the market value and the adjusted acquisition price. However, irreversible losses are recorded in the income 49 The equity securities included in the ordinary investment portfolio are stated in the consolidated balance sheet at the lower of acquisition cost or market value. The market value is determined according to the following criteria: rates adequate to carry fixed assets at their residual value at the end of their useful lives. Amortization and depreciation rates used are: Amortization - Quoted securities: quote from the last trading day of the year. Annual Percentage Buildings for own use - Unquoted securities: theoretical book value of the investment obtained from the last available balance sheet. In order to recognize the corresponding losses, a securities fluctuation reserve has been created which is stated as a negative value in the assets of the consolidated balance sheet. Plant and machinery 10% Office furniture and machinery 20% Computer equipment f. Gains on consolidation 3% 20-33% Computer software applications 20% Vehicles 20% The cost of the multi owner assets classified as intangible fixed assets is amortized on a straight-line basis over a period equal to the residual life of the respective contract. “Gains on consolidation” shows gains arising on the acquisition of the shares of companies consolidated using the full consolidation method, the proportionate consolidation method, or the equity method (see note 8.b). In case the fixed assets, due to their use or obsolescence are irreversibly depreciated, the loss or decrease in value of the corresponding asset is recorded directly. These gains are amortized on a straight-line basis over a maximum of 5 years (the period may be extended to 10 years on submission of a reasoned request to INAF). The depreciation of capitalised work and installations in relation to leased assets is related to their estimated useful life or until the lease agreement terminates. The acquisition of Columbus de México, S.A. in April 2008 and of Quest Capital Advisers in December 2009 generated consolidation goodwill of 3,572 and 13,556 thousand euros, respectively. Pursuant to authorisations granted by INAF on September 10, 2009 and August 2, 2010, respectively, in order to improve the correlation of income and expenses, the amortisation period of these assets was extended to 10 years, counting from the time of acquisition. As indicated in note 8, buildings used in operations acquired or built prior to November 30, 2008 were revalued on that date and a revaluation reserve was created at that time for the difference between the estimated market value and the acquisition cost, net of accumulated depreciation (see notes 8 and 11). When an asset of this type is retired, any corresponding amounts recognised in the revaluation reserve may be transferred directly to voluntary reserves. Both the gains on consolidation and the goodwill generated in the acquisition of subsidiaries are fully covered by restricted reserves equal to the unamortised amount of said gains and goodwill (see Note 11.b.). h. Non-operating tangible fixed assets Non-operating tangible fixed assets are those not directly related to banking activity and adjudicated assets. g. Tangible and intangible fixed assets These include land, buildings, installations and furniture; which are recorded at the lower of their acquisition cost or market value and depreciated over their estimated useful lives Fixed assets are normally stated at their acquisition value, less the accumulated straight-line amortization and depreciation at 50 using the same percentages applied to operating fixed assets. currency exchange rates. Adjudicated assets include land and buildings valued at the lower of their adjudication cost or market value, after deducting provisions determined by the schedule set down by the current regulation. j. General reserve The reserve covers possible risks inherent to the banking business and other contingencies. The allocations to the reserve are reflected under the Allocations to the general reserve in the income statement and the recoveries under Extraordinary results. i. Futures operations The Bank has used these instruments in a limited way, both in hedging of its equity positions and in other operations. k. Accrual of interest Future contracts are included as memorandum accounts as specified by the INAF legislation and are associated with exchange and interest rates, market or credit risk, and specifically: The Group uses a financial method (i.e. internal rate of return or resulting cost), to calculate the accrual of interest for both assets and liabilities, with maturities of more than 12 months. - Unmatured sales or purchases of currencies and swaps in foreign currency are recorded as spot or maturity transactions depending on whether they mature in less or more than two business days. For operations under 12 months, the Group can choose between this method and straight-line accruals. - The results of trading transactions, (FRAS), interest swaps, and other future contracts outside organized markets are recorded at the principal amount of the operation. The Bank has recorded different commitments in relation with personnel: retired employees, early retirees, and an internally defined contribution pension fund for current bank employees. Operations to eliminate or significantly reduce interest rate, exchange or market risks in equity positions or other operations are considered hedging operations, in which the gains or losses generated have been stated side by side in the income statement with the costs or yields of hedged items. The personnel from what was previously called Banc Agrícol i Comercial d’Andorra, S.A. , who retired before December 22, 1995 have a retirement pension plan created in 1989 with defined pensions. Employees who joined the company after May 1, 1995, except certain groups belonging to a defined contribution scheme, do not belong to the retirement pension plan. l. Pensions and similar obligations Non-hedging operations, also called trading transactions, which have been undertaken in organised markets are valued in accordance with their quotations. Gains or losses arising from the changes in quotations are recorded in the income statement on the basis of their daily settlement. The Bank signed early retirement agreements with a number of employees in prior years. Under the agreements signed by retired personnel, the Bank has to give supplementary remuneration. At December 31, 2010, a fund in the amount of 835 thousand euros was set up for these obligations. Furthermore, there is an internal fund of 786 thousand euros at December 31, 2010 for pre-retired personnel, which coincides with the obligations accrued at that date. The results of the trading transactions undertaken outside these organised markets are not recognized in the income statement until their actual settlement. However, the positions are valued and provisions made against the results for potential net loss for each kind of risk that may arise from these valuations. The type of risks considered for such purposes include interest rates (by currency), market price (by issuer), The actuarial variables and other hypotheses used in the valu- 51 ation on December 31, 2010 for retired and pre-retired personnel are the following: Retirees Survival tables Early retirees GRMF-95 GRMF-95 3,5% 3,5% Nominal rate of salary growth - 1,6% Annual rate of pension growth 1,6% - - 65 Nominal actualisation rate Retirement age The amount of pension fund allocation provision for current personnel in 2010 was increased by 1.6% compared to 2009, and an interest rate of 1.5% was established for 2010 for employees belonging to the pension fund within the balance sheet (see note 9). Current personnel belonging to the defined contribution pension scheme can, upon request, transfer their pensions fund to memorandum accounts in an investment fund managed by the Bank (see note 9). As of December 31, 2010 the managed memorandum accounts reached 1,394 thousand euros, while the internal fund presented under Pension fund amounts to 4,201 thousand euros. 52 4. Assets and liabilities maturities The breakdown by maturities of loans as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 is as follows: 2010 Up to 1 month Expired Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions From 1 to 3 months From 3 months to 1 year From 1 year to 5 years More than 5 years No maturity Total - 21.440 9.000 - - - 393.009 423.449 Loans to customers 30.321 106.232 32.052 335.105 547.855 461.004 - 1.512.569 Customer overdrafts 47.679 - - - - - 63.319 110.998 2 4.692 2.248 1.369 3.150 2.500 - 13.961 Customers’ bills 2009 Expired Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions - Loans and advances to customers Up to 1 month From 1 to 3 months From 3 months to 1 year From 1 year to 5 years More than 5 years No maturity Total 21.616 13.198 28.000 - - 265.925 328.739 27.774 110.629 148.714 366.446 421.896 430.655 - 1.506.114 Customer overdrafts 52.263 - - - - - 54.311 106.574 Customers’ bills - 5.962 2.675 1.236 628 - - 10.501 The breakdown by maturities of Bonds and other fixed interest securities as of December 31, 2010 and 2009, is as follows: 2010 Bonds and other fixed income securities 2009 Bonds and other fixed income securities Expired 20.006 Expired 10.302 Up to 1 month 8.227 Up to 1 month 16.604 From 3 From 1 to months to 3 months 1 year 53.941 42.854 From 3 From 1 to months to 3 months 1 year 15.001 53 117.360 From 1 year to 5 years More than 5 years 334.555 405.193 From 1 year to 5 years More than 5 years 193.041 438.132 No maturity - No maturity - Total 864.776 Total 790.440 The maturities of the INAF deposits and creditors as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 are the following: 2010 Up to 1 month Expired From 3 From 1 to 3 From 1 year More than months to 5 years months to 5 years 1 year No maturity TOTAL INAF - 18.151 - 601 - - 240 18.992 Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions - 23.076 2.849 103 - 161.918 7.451 195.397 Customer deposits - 236.610 284.847 446.888 270.497 1.538 1.254.504 2.494.884 Debt securities 2009 23.000 Up to 1 month Expired 23.000 From 3 From 1 to 3 From 1 year More than months to months to 5 years 5 years 1 year No maturity TOTAL INAF - 18.159 - 601 - - 389 19.149 Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions - 44.810 2.777 22.655 596 - 21.309 92.147 Customer deposits - 212.986 599.066 529.989 169.524 1.002 927.132 2.439.699 As of December 31, 2010 and 2009, the detail by currency of loans and investment portfolios is as follows: 2010 Euros Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions Other currencies TOTAL 196.913 226.536 423.449 1.385.345 127.224 1.512.569 Customer overdrafts 62.820 48.178 110.998 Customers’ bills 13.960 1 13.961 876.192 81.467 957.659 Loans and overdrafts Investment portfolio 2009 EUROS Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions Loans and overdrafts Customer overdrafts Customers’ bills Investment portfolio 54 Other currencies TOTAL 168.731 160.008 328.739 1.428.618 77.496 1.506.114 105.579 995 106.574 9.936 565 10.501 700.510 109.624 810.134 As of December 31, 2010 and 2009, the detail by currency of the INAF deposits and creditors is as follows: 2010 EUROS INAF Other currencies TOTAL 18.992 - 18.992 171.110 24.287 195.397 Client deposits 1.973.565 521.319 2.494.884 Debt securities 23.000 - 23.000 Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions 2009 EUROS Other currencies TOTAL INAF 19.149 - 19.149 Banks and credit institutions and other financial institutions 84.748 7.399 92.147 1.934.244 505.455 2.439.699 Client deposits “Debt securities” includes the fixed income securities issued by Andorra Capital Agrícol Reig, B.V. during 2010. There were two issues, in September and October, in the amount of 3 million euros and 20 million euros, respectively. Both issues consist of structured fixed income securities. 5. Banks and credit institutions This balance as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 is broken down as follows: 2010 Current accounts Banks and credit institutions Other financial institutions Time deposits Banks and credit institutions Other financial institutions Less: allowance for losses 55 2009 393.009 - 265.926 - 393.009 265.926 30.440 - 62.813 - 30.440 62.813 (152) (213) 423.297 328.526 The movement in the allowance for losses during 2010 is as follows: Specific risks Balance at December 31, 2009 Provisions Uses Recoveries Balance as of December 31, 2010 Generic risks TOTAL - 213 213 - (61) (61) - 152 152 As of December 31, 2010, Banks and credit institutions does not include any matured, doubtful loans. 6. Loans and receivables The detail as of December 31, 2010 and 2009, by status of loans and guarantee type, is the following: 2010 Normal Credit situation Loans and advances to customers Customer overdrafts Customers’ bills 1.482.248 63.319 13.959 2009 Normal Credit situation Loans and advances to customers Customer overdrafts Customers’ bills 1.478.340 54.311 10.501 Expired Doubtful Total 14.650 708 - 15.671 46.971 2 1.512.569 110.998 13.961 Expired Doubtful Total 4.592 731 - 23.182 51.532 - 1.506.114 106.574 10.501 2010 Guarantee type Loans and advances to customers Customer overdrafts Customers’ bills Mortgage Monetary Securities Personal-secured and others Total 837.605 30.408 - 26.471 - 285.386 51.481 - 363.107 29.109 13.961 1.512.569 110.998 13.961 2009 Guarantee type Loans and advances to customers Customer overdrafts Customers’ bills Mortgage Monetary Securities Personal-secured and others Total 865.319 31.308 - 36.266 - 229.995 48.853 - 374.534 26.413 10.501 1.506.114 106.574 10.501 56 Loans and advances to customers at December 31, 2010, include loans for which legal action has been initiated, for an amount of 46,169 thousand euros. The movement during 2010 in the allowance for loan losses is as follows: Specific risks Balance as of December 31, 2009 Charge Recoveries Uses Others Balance as of December 31, 2010 Generic risks TOTAL 24.889 4.041 28.930 19.028 (21.331) (331) (32) 39 19.028 (32) (21.331) (292) 22.255 4.048 26.303 The charge for 2010 includes the effect of the review of the mortgage guarantees mentioned in note 3.d, in the amount of 4,258 thousand euros. The details of loans to public institutions for 2010 and 2009, which represent loans and overdrafts, are as follows: 2010 Central administrations Local administrations Semi-public entities 2009 51.300 41.408 2 85.253 42.357 - 92.710 127.610 7. Investment Portfolios a. Bonds and other fixed income securities The breakdown as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 is the following: 2010 Principality of Andorra’s public debt (see note 20) 2009 55.506 55.506 OECD countries’ public debt 352.049 181.867 Other bonds and negotiable fixed-income securities 457.221 553.067 864.776 790.440 57 At December 31, 2010, “Other bonds and fixed income securities” includes 123,621 thousand euros (417,576 thousand euros at December 31, 2009), corresponding to the amount of the unquoted fixed income securities acquired from the money market funds managed by the group (see note 3.e), of which 76,156 thousand euros corresponded to interest-bearing structured notes and the remainder to credit notes. This item also includes 64,792 thousand euros relating to a security transferred under a repo agreement. b. Equity investments in Group Companies The breakdown as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 is as follows: 2010 Address % Direct holdings Capital Results from the fiscal year Fiscal year dividend Total Equity Share of net assets Clau d’Or, S.L. (real estate) Andorra 10% 30 (1) - 30 29 Mon Immobilia, S.L.U. (real estate) Andorra 100% 30 (4) - 27 3 Equity investments in Group companies consolidated with the equity method (see note 2) - 3.045 Other equity investments - 76 3.153 2010 Address % Direct holdings Capital Results from the fiscal year Fiscal year dividend Total Equity Share of net assets Clau d’Or, S.A. (real estate) Andorra 10% 30 (1) - 32 30 Mon Immobilia, S.A. (real estate) Andorra 100% 30 (27) - 67 8 Equity investments in Group companies consolidated with the equity method (see note 2) - 3.575 Other equity investments - 84 3.697 The breakdown of investments in Group companies consolidated with the equity method as of December 31, 2010 is as follows: % direct holdings Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A. (insurer) 100% Capital 2.404 58 Share of net assets Total equity Dividends in 2010 3.045 3.045 705 3.045 3.045 705 c. Other equity investments Other equity investments include investments in other companies where the Group does not hold a majority of the shares or have decision-making power. These investments, as of December 31, 2010, are the following: 2010 Company name and activity Address Túnel d’Envalira, S.A. (infrastructures) Semtee, S.A. (leisure and health) Seguretat i Serveis, S.A. (security) Andorra Andorra Andorra % direct holding Results Subscribed Total Equity from fiscal Capital year 10% 15% 1,08% 8.400 25.242 32 17.366 38.328 767 (627) 2.169 - Dividends Share of net from the assets fiscal year - - - 840 3.929 218 4.987 * Data from the financial statements for 2009 2009 Company name and activity Address Túnel d’Envalira, S.A. (infrastructures) Semtee, S.A. (leisure and health) Seguretat i Serveis, S.A. (security) Andorra Andorra Andorra % direct holding Results Subscribed Total Equity from fiscal Capital year 10% 15% 28,6% 8.400 25.242 32 19.509 38.328 767 (1.115) 2.169 - Dividends Share of net from the assets fiscal year - - - 840 3.929 218 4.987 d. Shares and other equity securities Shares and other variable income equity securities include all listed or unlisted shares and securities in the Bank’s available for sale securities portfolio, which represents shareholdings in the capital of other companies with which there is no long-term relationship and where the purpose of such shareholdings is not to contribute to the Bank’s activity. e. Investment funds The detail by management entity as of December 31, 2010 and 2009, is as follows: 2010 2009 Managed by: Entities related to the Group Entities not related to the Group 59 74.887 8.904 8.294 2.672 83.791 10.966 h. Allowance for losses The following investment funds managed by the Group are included as of December 31, 2009: Alternative Investment Conservative, Alternative Investment Growth, Astra Andbanc Bonds, Astra SIF Fondiposit, and Alternative Investment Private Equity. Balance as of December 31, 2009 Net allocations to the reserve Balance as of December 31, 2010 f. Portfolio valuation Fixed Income Equity securities 2009 8. Fixed assets 51.080 692.005 8.140 46.664 627.128 8.684 a. Intangible assets, capitalized expenses and tangible fixed assets 135.040 71.394 123.358 4.300 957.659 810.134 The movement in intangible assets and capitalized expenses during 2010 and their amortization is as follows: g. Securities fluctuation reserves The movement of the securities fluctuation reserve for 2010 is as follows: Provisions Recoveries Others Balance as of December 31, 2010 2.983 2010 The acquisition cost of the securities in the trading portfolio as of December 31, 2010 is 56,733 thousand euros (51,182 thousand euros at December 31, 2009). The market valuations of the securities in the ordinary investment portfolio and the investment portfolio are 200,745 thousand euros and 654,901 thousand euros, respectively, as of December 31, 2010 (122,878 thousand euros and 622,279 thousand euros, respectively, as of December 31, 2009). The unrecorded gain for all categories is 1,580 thousand euros as of December 31, 2010 (234 thousand euros as of December 31, 2009). Balance as of December 31, 2009 (1.053) As of December 31, 2010 the Allowance for losses relates exclusively to the general provision on the investment portfolio. The securities as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 classified by valuation categories described in note 3(e) are listed below: Trading portfolio Fixed term investment portfolio Permanent equity investments portfolio Ordinary investment portfolio: 4.036 5.010 1.330 (508) 5.832 60 31/12/2009 Additions Disposals Transfers 31/12/2010 Cost Multi owner assets Software applications Others 538 27.337 8.509 479 2.823 (274) (727) 712 (712) 538 28.254 9.893 Total 36.384 3.302 (1.001) - 38.685 (98) (20.843) (2.999) (10) (2.175) (584) 208 5 - (108) (22.810) (3.577) (23.940) (2.769) 213 - (26.496) 12.444 533 (788) - 12.189 Amortization: Multi owner assets Software applications Others Total Accumulated Amortization Total NET The Bank reached an agreement with Pyrénées, S.A., effective as from January 1, 2003, where both parties contribute certain financial operations and financial services arising from their activity to a joint account, the results of which are equal. On the basis of the valuation price of the contributions there was a difference of 3,063 thousand euros, which the Bank has paid and recorded under “Others” as capitalised expenses. During the first half of 2007, AndPrivate Wealth, S.A. acquired the management company P&P Portfolio Planning, resident in Geneva, Switzerland, generating a gain on consolidation. When the two companies merged in 2008, this gain gave rise to goodwill in the Group’s balance sheet. The amount of this goodwill, totalling 962 thousand euros at December 31, 2010 (1,192 thousand euros at December 31, 2009), is recognised in intangible assets under the heading “Other”. The period of amortization for the capitalised expenses, according to the financial system accounting plan, is five years. Given that the agreement was indefinite, and to align the projected generation of income with the depreciation, the Bank requested the authorization of the INAF, which was granted on January 19, 2004, to allocate the difference mentioned above to the income statement over a 10 year period. The movement in tangible assets during 2010 and their depreciation is the following: 61 Cost OPERATING: Land Buildings Furniture Works of art Installations Data processing equipment Vehicles Fixed assets in progress 31/12/2009 Additions Disposals Transfers Revaluations 31/12/2010 46.632 46.620 4.997 27.339 20.801 1.440 759 262 (50) (1.005) 83 - 46.632 45.615 5.292 637 467 56 1.083 (105) (172) (167) - 427 50 (599) - 28.298 21.146 1.329 1.243 Sub total 148.588 2.505 (494) (1.044) - 149.555 NON-OPERATING: Buildings Land Installations Data processing equipment Furniture Vehicles 9.999 10.641 4.223 92 33 16 7.468 42 - (317) (10) 1.005 39 0 - 18.155 10.641 4.304 92 33 6 25.004 7.510 (327) 1.044 - 33.231 173.592 10.015 (821) 0 - 182.786 (9.079) (4.634) (18.920) (17.785) (275) (1.912) (138) (1.272) (1.249) (69) 0 31 9 41 51 59 0 4 0 0 - (10.932) (4.741) (20.179) (18.993) (293) (50.693) (4.640) 132 63 - (55.138) (3.689) (4.160) (92) (31) (241) (29) - - (59) (4) - - (3.989) (4.193) (92) (31) (7.972) (270) - (63) - (8.305) (58.665) (4.910) 132 0 - (63.443) (428) (2.085) 8 - - (2.505) 114.499 3.020 (681) - - 116.838 Sub total Total TANGIBLE FIXED ASSETS Depreciation: OPERATING: Buildings Furniture Installations Data processing equipment Vehicles Sub total Depreciation: NON-OPERATING: Buildings Installations Data processing equipment Furniture Sub total Total DEPRECIATION: Provision depreciation of fixed assets: Total NET TANGIBLE ASSETS 62 In 2010 no interest or exchange differences relating to fixed assets have been capitalised. With express authorization granted by INAF on December 9, 2008, the Bank updated the book value of the buildings housing its Headquarters and branches with effective date November 30, 2008 (see notes 3g and 11). During 2010, through an appraisal conducted by an independent expert, it was found that the market value of the abovementioned assets was greater than their carrying amount, the appropriate allownaces being recorded where this was not the case. These allowances were deducted from revaluation reserves in accordance with the authorisation granted by INAF on March 2, 2011. b. Consolidation gains Balance at December 31, 2009 8.533 Regularizations Written off Exchange gains/(losses) 7.482 (1.751) 236 Balance at December 31, 2010 14.500 The acquisition of Quest Capital Advisers, S.A. on December 17, 2009 produced goodwill of 13,556 thousand euros, of which 7,482 thousand euros, recorded under “Regularizations”, was recognised during 2010 to reflect deferred payments relating to the acquisition, said deferred payments being recognised under “Other liabilities” in the balance sheet at December 31, 2010. The acquisition of Columbus de México, S.A. on April 11, 2008 produced goodwill of 3,572 thousand euros (see note 2). Both purchase agreements include potential deferred payments based on the companies’ future results. 9. Provisions for liabilities and charges a. Pensions and similar obligations Details of movements in the fund for pensions and similar obligations for 2010 is as follows: Retirements Balance as of December 31, 2009 Allocation for the year charged against the income statement Payments made to pensioners and repurchases for the year Other movements Balance as of December 31, 2010 Early retirements Pension funds 757 489 4.146 5.392 40 (73) 111 283 (306) 320 559 (514) 10 882 (893) 441 835 786 4.201 5.822 Total The allocation to the pension fund is recorded in Other expenditures in the income statement. This allocation includes, in 2010, 103 thousand euros (114 thousand euros in 2009) as financial charges. The payments made to pensioners and early retirees during 2010 are recorded against the pensions. 63 The investment portfolio assigned to the retirement and early retirement fund as of December 31, 2010 corresponds to part of the fixed income securities maturing on July 15, 2019 that forms part of the investment portfolio held to maturity. The balance of the fund assigned to pensions for current personnel, is covered by deposits with banks and credit institutions. b. Other Provisions Other provisions basically includes, as of December 31, 2010, a provision of 2,136 thousand euros for the potential loss on trading portfolio operations contracted by the Bank. The movement in other provisions during 2010 was as follows: 31/12/09 Other provisions Totals Allocations Uses 31/12/10 1.374 1.214 (452) 2.136 1.374 1.214 (452) 2.136 10. Allocation of net income The proposed allocation by the Board of directors of the 2010 net income of the Bank to be presented for approval by the General Meeting is the following: Legal reserve Voluntary reserve Dividends 14.570 27.031 Balance as of December 31, 2010 41.601 11. Movement in shareholders’ equity and general reserve The movement in reserves during 2010 is as follows: Balance as of December 31, 2009 Distribution of result for 2009 Consolidation adjustments Sale of unquoted fixed income securities (Note 3e) Adjustment for real estate valuation Result for 2010 Balance as of December 31, 2010 Share capital Legal reserve Guarantee reserve Share premium Revaluation reserve 78.061 15.612 17.856 69.999 65.000 39.491 - - - - - - - - - - - - 78.061 15.612 17.856 64 Volun- Consolitary dation Reserves reserves Dividends Results 10.365 - 44.357 45.751 - (1.573) - (45.751) 1.573 - 35.908 - - - - (1.758) - - - - 40.778 69.999 63.242 121.150 8.792 - 40.778 a. Share capital Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig, S.A.U. Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A. Grup Nobilitas N.V. Andbanc Bahamas Ltd Savand, S.A.U. Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg Andbanc (Panamá) S.A. Others As of December 31, 2010 the Bank’s share capital is made up of 1,751,825 shares with a nominal value of EUR 44.56. At this date, there are no shares with specific characteristics or transmission restrictions. b. Legal and voluntary reserves In accordance with Andorran commercial law, banks must allocate 10% of the year’s profit to the legal reserve until it reaches 20% of the share capital. Total 78% of the Bank’s Voluntary Reserves and the Share Premium are available for distribution at December 31, 2010. 2010 2009 3.299 8.471 3.794 (6.556) 2.583 (2.077) (258) (260) (204) 6.834 4.606 3.092 (5.112) 1.977 (948) (84) 8.792 10.365 The movement in the consolidation reserves during 2010 is as follows: Consolidated reserves c. Guarantee reserves This section includes the guarantee reserves in deposits and other operating obligations which have to be deposited with the INAF. d. Revaluation reserve The balance on the “Revaluation Reserve” account corresponds to the updating of the book value of certain buildings to reflect their market value (see notes 3f and 8). Balance as of December 31, 2009 10.365 Allocation of 2009 results to reserves Supplementary dividend 2008 Other consolidation adjustments 1.963 (6.950) 3.414 Balance as of December 31, 2010 The Revaluation Reserves are not available for distribution unless the assets are disposed of and/or the INAF authorizes their distribution. e. Consolidation reserves The consolidation reserves correspond to the following companies: 65 8.792 f. Results attributed to the Group The detail of results attributed to the Group as of December 31, 2010 is the following: 2010 2009 Andorra Banc Agrícol Reig, S.A. 42.915 45.751 Fully consolidated companies: (2.062) 1.261 2.509 1.349 (2.036) (75) (1.636) 1.230 (381) (1.174) 134 (502) (1.012) (2.332) (172) 3.865 606 (1.443) 189 (1.122) 159 159 1.081 702 702 (3.357) 42.093 44.357 Andorra Gestió Agrícol Reig, S.A. Andbanc Bahamas Limited Grup Nobilitas N.V. Columbus de México, S.A. And Private Wealth, S.A. Quest Capital Advisers Andbanc Wealth Management LLC Consolidation adjustments Grup Nobilitas Savand, S.A.U. Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg, S.A. Andbanc (Panamá), S.A. Andbanc (Luxemburg) S.A. Others Companies consolidated with the equity method Andorra Assegurances Agrícol Reig, S.A. Consolidation adjustments (510) (1.129) (258) (260) (120) g. Interim dividend No interim dividend was paid out of profits for 2010. h. General reserve The movement in the general reserve during 2010 was as follows: Balance at December 31, 2009 2.800 Net recoveries from the reserve (note 13) (2.000) Balance at December 31, 2010 800 66 12. Assets and liabilities in euros and other currencies The breakdown of the assets and liabilities in the balance sheets between euros and other currencies is as follows: 2010 2009 Assets Euros Other currencies Liabilities Assets Liabilities 2.683.958 521.106 2.663.446 541.618 2.763.036 185.752 2.432.232 516.556 3.205.064 3.205.064 2.948.788 2.948.788 13. Other balance sheet and income statement headings In addition, at December 31, 2010 the movements on the following income statement headings were considered significant: a. Extraordinary results In addition to the recovery from the general reserve mentioned in Note 11.e, this heading in the income statement for 2010 also includes losses on disposal of fixed assets in the amount of 588 thousand euros, returns of interest paid and fees accrued in 2009 in the amount of 990 thousand euros, prior year expenses in the amount of 1,890 thousand euros, expenses for corporate transactions carried out in 2009 in the amount of 740 thousand euros, recoveries of very doubtful assets in the amount of 780 thousand euros and prior year income in the amount of 2,890 thousand euros. From the Subsidiary undertakings there is a contribution of extraordinary income in the amount of 159 thousand euros from sales of fixed assets and recoveries of very doubtful assets from Savand, S.A., and prior year expenses from Andbanc Asset Management, S.A. and Savand S.A. in the amount of 537 thousand euros and 123 thousand euros, respectively. 14. Financial derivatives Transactions in futures and financial derivatives are detailed below at their notional value by type of product as of December 31, 2010. A distinction is made between trading and hedging operations by market: 2010 Forward currency purchases Options Swaps Other agreements 2009 Forward currency purchases Options Swaps Other agreements Market Not Not Not Not Hedge regulated regulated regulated regulated Market Not Not Not Not 67 Total 1.140.140 176.126 717.961 161.323 25.388 13.408 122.753 1.140.140 201.514 731.369 284.076 2.195.550 161.549 2.357.099 Hedge regulated regulated regulated regulated Trading Trading Total 1.894.333 118.384 373.747 120.434 97.246 29.787 20.371 1.894.333 215.630 403.534 140.805 2.506.898 147.404 2.654.302 The forward currency operations are considered as hedges; in view of the fact that the overall position in terms of currency and maturities is practically closed. There are certain operations involving insignificant amounts that hedge to maturity the risks recorded on the balance sheet. The overall net spot position and net forward position in currency operations is monitored on a daily basis. The swaps and options are contracted in order to cover the interest rate risk of operations with customers. The bank regularly monitors the difference between the nominal amount contracted and the amount of the deposits to be hedged. The other agreements correspond to hedge operations executed with customers and other trading operations on securities positions. The maturities of futures operations and financial derivatives as of December 31, 2010 are as follows: Up to 1 year Forward currency purchases Options Swaps Other agreements From 1 year to 5 years More than 5 years Total 1.140.140 7.542 270.574 228.466 16.826 386.944 48.610 177.146 73.851 7.000 1.140.140 201.514 731.369 284.076 1.646.722 452.380 257.997 2.357.099 15. Guarantees As of December 31, 2010, the Bank has not given any guarantees on its commitments or third-party commitments. 16. Operations with associated entities and persons The details of balances with associated entities and persons exceeding 10% of the equity as of December 31, 2010 are the following: Companies with participating interest Shareholders Banks and credit institutions Assets Liabilities Loans and receivables Memorandum accounts Client deposits Board members (not shareholders) Members of the Senior Management (not shareholders) Other related parties - - - - - 47.794 98.763 503 - - - 135.396 21.717 3.251 68 The Bank’s balances maintained with shareholders correspond to two individuals and two corporations. Neither of the individuals is a member of the Board of Directors or Senior Management. Both the corporations are members of the Board of Directors. from the Board of Directors. The general policies and specific limits defined by the ALRCO are therefore submitted to the Board of Directors for analysis and approval. The risk limits are reviewed at regular intervals in order to adapt them to the economic and market situation and are submitted annually to the Board of Directors. “Other related parties” includes the balances maintained by the Bank with 30 companies in which related parties exercise significant influence. Said companies do not have the purpose of serving the customers of the Bank. To determine the risk limits granted to countries or financial institutions, the Group uses relatively stable variables such as credit ratings or Tier I capital, and market variables such as the price at which the Credit Default Swap is traded or the behaviour of the entity’s share relative to the stock market in general. During 2010 these limits were reviewed frequently on account of the instability caused by the sovereign debt crisis. No company with participating interest, no member of the Board of directors or of the Senior Management who are not shareholders, holds positions representing more than 10% of equity as of December 31, 2010. As the body responsible for the management of interest rate risk, exchange rate risk, country risk, counterparty risk, liquidity risk and market risk, the ALRCO meets at least monthly. The ALRCO has delegated the task of supervising these risks to the Middle Office department, which reports to the ALRCO daily and weekly, as applicable, with information on the risks managed. The ALRCO is also responsible for balance sheet management and capital management, with the aim of maintaining a high level of capital strength. As regards shareholders, members of the Board of directors who are not shareholders, investee companies, and members of Senior Management who are not shareholders, during 2010 there were no transactions representing more than 5% of the 2010 result. All operations with associated entities and persons were carried out at market prices. 17. Market risks Responsibility for guaranteeing the asset management business is exercised in accordance with the established legal and regulatory framework and the task of assessing the results is assigned to the Asset Management ALRCO, which meets monthly. The committee delegates the monitoring of asset management activity to the Middle Office. Besides monitoring compliance with the regulatory framework, the Middle Office assesses compliance with the investment policy of the funds and portfolios and regularly monitors the measures of return and risk, both ex-ante and ex-post. Risk management The identification, measurement, management and control of risk is a key element in the management of the Andbanc Group. The risk control framework includes a qualitative component, concerning the definition of politicies and responsibilities, and a quantiative component, associated with the setting of limits. The positioning of the Group in terms of risk management is based on maintaining a prudent policy, where risk assumption is tightly linked to the exercise of business activities in commercial banking, private banking and asset management. Interest rate risk Interest rate risk is defined as the impact on the market value of the Group’s assets and liabilities resulting from movements in interest rates. The measures the Group uses to assess this impact are the sensitivity of net interest income over a oneyear period to 100 basis point parallel shifts in the yield curve The establishment of policies, the setting of limits and the overall supervision of risks is the responsibility of the Assets, Liabilities and Risks Committee (ALRCO), under delegation 69 for the main balance sheet currencies and the sensitivity of the market value of own funds to 100 basis point parallel shifts in the yield curve. curities portfolio (which includes EUR 155 million in hedging derivatives) was EUR 868 million, the average VaR having been 0.38% of the average invested position. In the low interest rate environment that has prevailed in the last two years, the Group has maintained a positive exposure to movements in the yield curve; that is to say, the Group’s net interest income would increase if the interest rate were to rise and decrease if the interest rate were to fall. This has translated into a positive repricing gap of the Group’s interest-ratesensitive balance sheet assets and liabilities, i.e., overall, the repricing of assets precedes in time the repricing of liabilities. This positioning has been supported by very short-term interbank lending and investments in bonds with a return linked to the 3/6-month Euribor, although longer-term fixed-rate bonds have also been purchased without hedging to increase the duration. To more effectively monitor the risks of its own portfolio, in early 2010 Andbanc started a project to implement a front and back-office tool for handling a wide range of financial assets and managing the associated risks, which will significantly reduce the operational risk associated with the management of the investment portfolio. Credit risk Credit risk is the potential loss that would arise should a counterparty fail to meet its obligations to the Group. The Group follows a prudent policy in assigning credit limits, authorising exposure only to countries with high credit ratings and in these countries only to the most solvent financial institutions. Credit limits are approved annually by the Board of Directors, although as the sovereign debt crisis has developed, credit lines have been reviewed to reduce exposure to the countries affected, maintaining a low level of risk. The limit established as the maximum loss resulting from a 100 basis point parallel shift in the yield curve is 5% of own funds. During 2010 this limit was not exceeded. Market risk Strict rules are applied for granting limits to counterparties that have not posted collateral. In such cases, the counterparty is required to have high credit quality, based on the ratings assigned by the main agencies (Moody’s, Fitch and S&P), and must have been assigned a relatively moderate credit risk by the market, as reflected in the price at which the 5-year CDS is traded. Observation of the market variable allows any change in the counterparty’s credit quality to be swiftly included in the model. Market risk is understood as the potential loss to which the securities portfolio is exposed due to changes in market conditions, such as asset prices, interest rates, market volatility and market liquidity. The measures the Group uses to manage the market risk of its own portfolio are value at risk (VaR) and stress testing, in line with general market standards. VaR is measured using the parametric method. The calculation obtained corresponds to the maximum expected loss over a given time horizon and with a given confidence level. The Group calculates VaR for a time horizon of one week and with a confidence level of 99%, and the historical period used for calculating the correlation matrix and volatilities is three years. During 2010 the average VaR calculated for the ordinary investment portfolio and for the trading portfolio was EUR 0.83 million, with a maximum of EUR 1.81 million and a minimum of EUR 0.62 million. The average position of the ordinary investment portfolio and the trading portfolio was EUR 167 million. The average net position of the Group’s se- Liquidity risk Liquidity risk is defined as the risk that an entity will be unable to meet its payment obligations at a given time, whether arising from, among others, the maturity of deposits, the drawdown of credit lines granted, or guarantee requirements in transactions with collateral. The Middle Office department monitors the liquidity position daily to ensure that it remains above the minimum liquidity 70 level established by the ALRCO. The Group has set a minimum amount of overnight cash and an additional minimum amount of cash and highly liquid positions with one-week liquidity. Repo-financed positions and compliance with the liquidity ratio established by the INAF, which supervises the Andorran financial system, are monitored daily. This ratio compares liquid and relatively liquid assets with liabilities becoming due and payable and is set at a minimum of 40%. During 2010 the Group maintained an average liquidity ratio of 59.73% and at year-end the ratio was 78.04%. These deposits of securities include, as of December 31, 2010, 339,985 thousand euros as guarantee for various assets and risks of non-payment operations. As of December 31, 2010, the wealth of individual customers managed is classified under deposit of securities under custody of third parties in the memorandum accounts and under liabilities in the attached consolidated balance sheet. The income recorded for management commissions is recorded under Commissions for services in the attached consolidated income statement. Since the start of 2010, a liquidity contingency plan for the Group has been drawn up at monthly intervals, assessing contingent liquidity based on different levels of mobilization of liquid assets and considering the cost at which this liquidity would be obtained. Another short and medium-term liquidity management measure used by the Group is the residual maturity of the Group’s balance sheet assets and liabilities. 19. Other memorandum account The breakdown of this account as of December 31, 2010 and 2009 is the following: Very doubtful debts Others Fiduciaries Other Public debt issued by the Andorran government Unlisted own securities Other The maximum exposure limits during 2010 under different measures, based on the risk-generating factor, were as follows (in thousands of euros): Limits FIXED INCOME – Position for trading CHANGES – Overall Forward/Cash Position INTEREST- Balance sheet loss resulting from a 1% rised’un 1% en la corba de tipus d’interès (*) EQUITY- Position for trading 15.000 6.000 5% 6.000 18. Deposits of securities and other securities under custody Shares and other equity securities Bonds and other fixed income securities Holdings in investment institutions not managed by the Group Others 1.118.078 3.985.965 859.455 3.812.341 1.028.096 6.259 814.264 81.998 6.138.398 5.568.058 42.469 154.509 84.023 70.486 21.282 155.288 85.760 69.528 55.506 8.140 6.840 55.506 8.684 5.338 196.978 176.570 20. Compliance with local regulations As of December 31, 2010, the details of the consolidated memorandum accounts are as follows (by security type): 2009 2009 “Fiduciaries” includes unlisted fixed-income securities that the Bank holds for third parties. These securities are shown at the most accurate market value available and, failing that, at their face value. (*) Limits on own funds 2010 2010 Regulatory legislation on obligatory investment ratios The Principality of Andorra´s Council General, in a session held on June 30, 1994, passed a Law regulating the obligatory investment fund ratios. The Regulations pursuant to this law exclusively concern banking institutions and oblige them to maintain a certain investment ratio of assets in Andorran public funds. 71 On December 31, 2005, the Government decreed a public debt issue to which the Bank subscribed in an amount of 55,766 thousand euros (see note 7), with maturity on December 31, 2009 and remunerated by the official one-year interest rate of the European Central Bank. At December 31, 2009 this public debt was renewed in the amount of 55,506 thousand euros, maturing on December 31, 2013. economic development. This is to be done by granting loans, subject to a prior assessment and overall approval of proposals by a joint committee made up of representatives of the Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Services of Andorra, the development company Andorra Desenvolupament i Inversió, SAU, the Andorran banking association Associació de Bancs d’Andorra (ABA) and the Government of Andorra. The amount outstanding at 31 December is 304 thousand euros, recorded under loans and advances to customers in the balance sheet. Loans granted by the banks within a program classified as being of national and social interest, which is aimed specifically at financing of housing, are now also considered to be public funds, as per the decision of the Council General of the Andorran Government of April 26, 1995. As of December 31, 2010, the loans granted by the Bank in this respect amounted to 365 thousand euros (440 thousand euros on December 31, 2009). They are recorded under the Loans / Loans and advances to customers in the attached consolidated balance sheet. These loans accrued an annual fixed interest rate of 6%. Legal solvency and liquidity regulations of financial institutions. The Principality of Andorra´s Council General, in a session held on February 29, 1996, passed the Law regulating the solvency and liquidity criteria for financial institutions. This law obliges banks to maintain a minimum capital ratio of 10%, based on the recommendation of the Basel Committee on Banking Regulations and Supervisory Practices, calculated on the basis of a ratio that relates the qualifying equity to the weighted risk assets as per the degree of risk of such assets. Thus, banks are also obliged to maintain a liquidity ratio of a least 40%. The Principality of Andorra’s Council General, in a session held on May 11, 1995, passed a Law Regulating Deposit Guarantee Reserves and Other Operational Obligations, which are to be maintained and deposited by entities operating in the financial system. This law obliges the banks forming part of the Andorran financial system to maintain in their shareholders’ equity various minimum reserves of shareholders’ equity as a guarantee of their operational obligations up to a limit of 4%, which for 2010 amounts to 1.25% of the Bank’s total investments, after deducting investments made using shareholders’ equity and funds of financial institutions. As of December 31, 2009 and 2010, the deposit made by the Bank and its subsidiaries in this respect was 18,066 thousand euros and 18,066 thousand euros, respectively. This amount is recorded under INAF in the assets of the attached consolidated balance sheet. The capital and liquidity ratios of the consolidated financial statements, determined in accordance with this law, were 22.29% and 78.04%, respectively, as of December 31, 2010 (20.21% and 50.71% as of December 31, 2009). The law regulating the solvency and liquidity criteria of financial institutions also restricts the concentration of risks in a single beneficiary up to a maximum of 20% of the shareholders’ equity of the bank. The law also stipulates that the accumulation of risks that by themselves exceed 5% of the equity cannot exceed the limit of 400% of the abovementioned equity. The risk maintained with the members of the Board of directors cannot exceed 15% of the equity. The abovementioned risks are considered according to the said law. On 3 March 2010 the Government issued a decree classified as of national and social interest under the program to provide privileged financing for start-up companies and businesses, innovation, conversion and entrepreneurial ventures. Basically, the decree is aimed at promoting and supporting the new ideas of those who, in difficult times and changing environments, see opportunities and challenges which, though not without risk, have the potential to assist the country’s During the year the Group has complied with the requirements of this law. The maximum risk concentration of risk in favour of a single beneficiary was 15.20% of shareholders’ eq- 72 of measures equivalent to those provided in Council Directive 2003/48/EC on taxation of savings income in the form of interest payments. uity (18.45% in 2009). Loans or other operations involving risk in a single beneficiary that exceed 5% of shareholders’ equity have not exceeded an accumulation of risks of 108.66% in the aggregate (137.53% in 2009). On February 21, 2005 the Andorran government ratified the agreement between the Principality of Andorra and the European Community in relation to the establishment of measures equivalent to those provided in Council Directive 2003/48/EC on taxation of savings income in the form of interest payments. Subsequently, on June 13, 2005, the government passed a law implementing the above agreement. International Anti-Criminal Cooperation and Fight against Money or Securities Laundering by International Criminals Act. In the session held on December 29, 2000, the Council General of the Principality of Andorra adopted a law on international anti-criminal cooperation and the fight against money or securities laundering by international criminals. In 2007, the Group, acting in its capacity as a payment agent, complied with the obligations contained in the agreement and its implementing law and settled the amount of the withholding. In accordance with this law, the Bank has set up proper and sufficient control and internal communications procedures to protect banking secrecy and prevent and impede operations related to money laundering and securities generated by criminal activities. Specific personnel training programs have been carried out to this effect. 21. Corporate citizenship, or similar activities, interventions The Group does not have any legal or statutory obligations relating to corporate citizenship. The Group, however, has always been characterized by a strong social commitment and a strong desire to work towards the general interest to improve the country’s economic and social progress. Indirect tax law on the Banking and Financial Services Act The Principality of Andorra´s Council General, in a meeting held on May 14, 2002, adopted the Indirect Tax Law on Banking and Financial Services Act. The purpose of this act is to tax the services provided by financial entities to their customers. 22. Subsequent events No significant post-balance sheet events have occurred which could have an impact on the 2010 annual accounts. The calculation of the tax payable is made objectively, in accordance with the provisions of the Indirect Tax on Banking and Financial Services Act and on the basis of the returns filed in respect of such taxes. 23. Explanation added for translation to English These financial statements are presented on the basis of the regulatory financial reporting framework applicable to the Company (see Note 2-a). Certain accounting practices applied by the Company that conform with that regulatory framework may not conform with other generally accepted accounting principles and rules. The amount recorded as of December 31, 2010 for the indirect tax on Banking and Financial Services Act is 12,752 thousand euros (11,708 thousand euros in 2009). This is recorded in the tax account under General expenses in the consolidated income statement. Agreement between the Principality of Andorra and the European Community in relation to the establishment 73 5. Risk Management The identification, measurement, management and control of risk are a key element in the management of the Andbanc Group. The main risks that the Group is exposed to in carrying out its activity are: directors for ratification. On the other hand, the risk limits are reviewed periodically in order to adapt them to the economic situation and that of the markets, and are in any case presented to the Board of Directors annually for approval. - Interest rate risk At Group level, to determine the risk limits awarded to countries, relatively stable factors are applied, such as membership of international organisms (EU, OECD) or market ratings and variables, such as the level that the country’s Credit Default Swap is quoted at. These limits have been reviewed on several occasions throughout 2010, especially as a result of the instability caused by the crisis of the Irish and Greek debt, in an environment of a rising risk premium for the countries of Southern Europe, specifically Portugal, Spain and Italy. - Exchange rate risk - Market risk - Credit risk - Liquidity risk - Operational risk - Reputational risk With regard to the risk limits assigned to financial institutions, the factors considered include the rating and the Tier 1 capital, together with market indicators, specifically the level at which the Credit Default Swap is quoted or the relative behaviour that the shareholding has had in the stock market. During 2010, an analysis of the results of the stress tests carried out by the CEBS on the European financial entities has been incorporated. The risk control framework has a qualitative component, in terms of defining policies and responsibilities, as well as a quantitative component based on the establishment of limits. The Group’s positioning in terms of risk management is based on maintaining a cautious policy, where the assumption of risks is tightly bound in with the exercising of business activities in commercial banking, private banking and asset management. The principles on which the management and control of the Group’s risks are based are the following: As a body responsible for the management of interest rate risks, exchange rate risks, country and counterparty risks, liquidity risks and market risks, the ALRC meets at least once a month, although as a result of the debt crisis experienced in 2010, decisions have been made based on a number of unscheduled meetings. In addition, the Committee is responsible for balance management and capital management, with the aim of maintaining a high level of solvency. The ALRC delegates the supervision of these risks to the Middle Office department. - A clear definition of the responsibilities of the units involved in risk control, - Providing the appropriate human and technical resources to be able to carry out the functions effectively, - Suitable internal control systems, - Transparency of information about the risks assumed It is responsible for guaranteeing that the activity of asset management is carried out in line with the established legal and statutory framework. Evaluating the results is the responsibility of the Management Monitoring Committee, meeting on a monthly basis. The committee delegates asset management The definition of policies, the determining of limits and the supervision of risks is the responsibility of the Assets, Liabilities and Risks Committee (ALRC), having had this function delegated to it by the Board of Directors. Therefore the policies and limits defined by the ALRC are presented to the Board of 74 monitoring to the Middle Office department. In addition to checking that the investment bodies and models comply with the regulatory framework, the Middle Office evaluates the degree of compliance with the established investment policy and performs periodic monitoring of the performance measurements and risk measurements, both ex-ante and ex-post. With regard to counterparty risks, the publication in July of the results of the stress test of the main European banks, though not an exhaustive analysis, allowed these institutions to catalogue and identify those that presented the weakest levels of solvency. The Group incorporated these results into the limit allocation model, conceding limits to the more solvent counterparties and freezing those of entities with lower levels. This dynamic management of counterparty risk, a conservative approach and constant supervision have allowed the Group to maintain a limited level of risk in accordance with the Group’s risk policy. Challenges for 2010 From the beginning of 2010 we experienced a new episode of international financial crisis, this time focusing on sovereign debt. Initially the focus of attention was on Greece, which in December 2009 suffered a reduction of its rating, and which at the beginning of January announced that over recent years it had been publishing certain figures regarding deficit and debt that were lower than the real figures. As a result of this, the cost to the capital markets for issuing Greek debt continued to rise until it reached unsustainable levels and Greece had to receive funds from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (FMI), in exchange for applying severe austerity measures aimed at reducing the level of debt. For 2011 the aim of the Group in terms of risk management is to follow closely the progress of the European sovereign debt crisis and maintain flexibility in order to confront new developments that may arise in the markets; a flexibility that should allow us to implement the appropriate measures for limiting the risks that may arise. Interest rate risk Interest rate risk is defined as the impact on the market value of the Group’s assets and liabilities as a consequence of interest rate movements. The measurements that the Group uses to evaluate this impact are the sensitivity of the financial margin for a period of one year to parallel movements of the interest rate curve of 100 base points for the main currencies of the balance, and the sensitivity of the market value of its own resources to parallel movements of the interest rate curve of 100 base points. The Greek crisis infected other European economies, mainly Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. In the case of Ireland, in September it was announced that restoring the balance of the Irish banks could involve a cost equivalent to 30% of the GDP, a fact that increased the pressures for Ireland to enter into negotiations with the EU and the IMF to agree to receive funds. The other economies of Southern Europe saw how their own ratings were being revised downward and the financial markets demanded higher credit differentials from them to issue debt, since their level of debt had increased substantially in recent years, thus forcing them also to apply austerity measures and to make their economies more flexible. Given the situation of historically low interest rates that has existed for the last two years, the Group has decided to maintain a positive exposure to movements of the interest rate curve, in other words, the financial margin of the Group would increase when faced with a rally of the interest rates, counter wise it would be reduced if these fell. This management has resulted in a revaluation gap of the assets and liabilities sensitive to positive balance interest rates, i.e. on an overall level, the revaluation of the assets is previous in time to that of the liabilities. Factors which contribute to this positioning include In this situation of a widespread broadening of the credit differentials of European countries, and especially the ‘PIGS’, the Group applied a policy of caution with regard to risks, containing and reducing the direct exposure to the debt of the countries that displayed the greatest instabilities and monitoring these displays closely. 75 Exchange rate risk the cession of very short term deposits to the Interbank and investment in bonds with performance tied to the Euribor at 3/6 months, although fixed rate long term bonds have also been purchased without hedging to increase the duration. Unlike the previous year, during 2010 no short term interest rate swaps have been contracted, given the perspective of a possible rallying of the rates in the short section of the curve. The group understands exchange rate risks as the impact on the market value of the Group’s assets and liabilities designated in currencies other than the euro as a consequence of movements in the exchange rates. Daily monitoring of spot and forward exchange operations in order to ensure that the open currency position remains at a minimum. At the end of the year, the overall open position was 1.38 million Euros, when the overall open position limit in the foreign exchange market is 6 million Euros. Throughout 2010, the maximum short net position was -0.08 million Euros and the maximum long net position was 1.38 million Euros. Market risk Market risk is understood as meaning the potential loss to which the securities portfolio is exposed as a consequence of changes in market conditions, such as asset prices, the interest rate, and the volatility and liquidity of the market. The measure that the Group uses to manage the market risk of its own portfolio is the value at risk methodology (VaR) as a general market standard. To support the interest rate strategy approved for the Group, in 2010 the Board of Directors decided to increase the sensitivity limit established for its own resources as a consequence of a parallel movement of the interest rate curve of 100 base points from the 4% in force until that moment to the current 5%. Despite remaining at levels close to the limit, over the year this has not been exceeded at any time. The VaR method used is the parametric. The calculation obtained corresponds to the maximum loss expected at a determined time horizon and with a defined level of confidence. The Group calculates the VaR for a time horizon of one week and with a level of confidence of 99%, and the historical period considered for calculating the matrix of correlations and volatilities is three years. In February of last year the Board of Directors approved the modification of the VaR limit, going from an annual VaR of 20 million Euros for the whole investment portfolio, to an annual VaR of 10 million Euros for the ordinary and negotiated investment portfolio, equivalent to a weekly VaR limit of 1.4 million Euros. During 2010, the average VaR calculated for the ordinary investment portfolio and the negotiated portfolio was 0.83 million Euros, with a maximum of 1.81 million Euros and a minimum of 0.62 million Euros. The average position of the ordinary investment and negotiated portfolio was 167 million Euros. In March the VaR limit was exceeded 76 due to an investment of 40 million Euros in the German public ten years debt in the ordinary portfolio, an operation included in the line of long-term investment to maturity in public debt, which was aimed at extending the duration of the asset. These positions did not end up being added to the investment to maturity portfolio, but were rather sold to market for capital gain. The average net position of the Group’s securities portfolio (which includes 155 million Euros in hedging derivatives) was 868 million Euros, with the average VaR of 0.38% being the average position invested. operations, which basically include loans to the interbank market, loans and debts with securities, repo operations and transactions with OTC derivatives, - The risk of non-fulfilment of the issuers of bonds in own portfolio. The Group applies a careful policy in the allocation of limits, authorising exposure only to countries with a high credit rating, and within these, with the most solvent financial bodies. The Board of Directors approves risk limits on an annual basis, although as events have emerged in the sovereign debt crisis, the measures for reducing the exposure to the countries affected have been revised, thus maintaining a low level of risk. The conceding of limits is more strict for those positions with counterparties where there is no collateral as a guarantee. In this event, the counterparty is required to have a high quality credit rating based on the assessment of the main agencies (Moody’s, Fitch and S&P), and that the market deems it a relatively moderate credit risk, reflected in the level at which the 5 year CDS quotes it. Observing the market variable allows any change in the counterparty’s credit quality to be incorporated more promptly into the model. With the aim of reducing the exposure to risk, the Group uses values as collateral in several operations, basically transactions with OTC derivatives, repo and loan operations and debt securities. For those counterparties with whom a master ISDA contract with acceptance of netting has been signed , a compensation of the exposure in derivatives is carried out between the two counterparties. During 2010, ISDA, CSA and GMRA contracts were signed with several counterparties, thereby providing a greater number of counterparties with which to operate with derivatives, while at the same time limiting substantially the exposure to counterparty risk. With the aim of improving the monitoring of the risks to its own portfolio, at the beginning of 2010 Andbanc initiated a project aimed at implementing a tool with a front to back scope that enables the bank to handle a wide range of financial assets and manage the risks, and this should significantly reduce the operational risk associated with the management of the investment portfolio. Credit risk The group’s fixe income portfolios is compound by debt issues from which the group has a direct exposure to the risk of non-fulfilment of the issuers, as well as coverage bonds from client’s structured products, the group includes as a part of balance nevertheless the risk from those products is assumed by the clients. The rating of the fixed income portfolio ( in thousand of Euros): Credit risk refers to the potential loss deriving in the event of a counterparty failing to comply with the obligations it is committed to with the Group. The Group’s exposure to credit risk includes: - The risk of non-fulfilment deriving from the usual treasury 77 Rating AAA AA+ to AAA+ to ABBB+ to BBBInvestment grade B+ Speculative grade Total Fixed Income PORTFOLIO risk exposure transfer of to Issuer or the risk to guarantor customers 164.305 45.474 350.278 54.112 142.028 39.392 66.295 0 722.905 138.978 Liquidity risk Total A liquidity risk is the risk that the Group may not be able to meet its payment commitments at a given moment, including those caused by the maturing of deposits, the disposal of credit lines conceded or the requirements of guarantees in operations with collateral, among others. A major part of the funding comes from client deposits, with the Interbank market being an additional source of funding, either via deposits or repo funding. Over recent years, the increase in its own resources, as a result of growth in capital and profit taking, has also been a significant source of funds. 209.779 404.390 181.419 66.295 861.883 0 0 2.893 2.893 2.893 2.893 722.905 141.871 864.776 One of the short and medium-term liquidity management measures is the residual maturity of the assets and liabilities of the Group’s balance. The Middle Office monitors liquidity on a daily basis, checking that it remains above the minimum liquidity established by the ALRC. This minimum stands at 100 million Euros cash per day and an additional 100 million Euros between cash and positions that are highly liquid at one week. This control includes a daily monitoring of the positions capable of being financed with repo. With regard to the exposure to credit risk for operations with clients, the Group’s credit investment stands at 1,637 million Euros, mainly in credit and loan policies, especially mortgage guarantee operations (868 million Euros) and pledge guarantees (336 million Euros). The main elements in the management of credit risk are the policies for conceding and empowering, monitoring the progress of the exposure and the establishment of periodic committees (Abnormal Risk and Delegated Commission). Credit risk concentrations are reviewed on a weekly basis, monitored to ensure they fall within the parameters marked out by the supervisor, and with the establishing of maximum debt levels in certain groups. The Credit Risk Department is responsible for credit risk monitoring and management with clients. Compliance with the liquidity rating established by the INAF, the supervisory body for the Andorran financial system, is also checked on a daily basis. This rating compares the liquid and easily mobilisable assets and the eligible liabilities, and is set at a minimum of 40%. The Group’s average liquidity rating during 2010 was 59.73%, and stood at 78.04% at the end of the year. In parallel, arrears levels are monitored by product in order to adjust the concession and empowerment policies. Concession decisions are made at an operational level. The progress of the risk is monitored by analysing the qualitative and quantitative variables, adapted to the requirements of the supervisor. The Group’s arrears rating is 3.83%, which is below the average for financial bodies in neighbouring countries. In 2010 the Group maintained a policy of conservative lending, and increased funds available for insolvencies by 19 million Euros. In addition, over the year a number of fully provided old balances were regularised by an amount of 21 million Euros. 78 Since the beginning of 2009 a monthly contingency plan has been drawn up for the Group’s liquidity, where the contingent liquidity is assessed in terms of different levels of mobilisation of liquid assets and considering the cost of obtaining this liquidity. The first level includes the volumes loaned to Interbank and that mature within a week, financial bonds maturing in the short term and un-deposited volumes of Interbank funding lines. The second level includes the most liquid debt issues, i.e. the debt issued or guaranteed by states, which can be funded with repo, and the debt issued by financiers with collateral, mainly mortgage bonds. The third level includes the remaining liquid debt, including senior debt, mortgage securitisation and non-complex structured products. The liquidity that can be generated is assessed with regard to the maximum output of funds that the Group has in a week, applying a stress factor. A variety of control mechanisms have been established to mitigate this risk. On the one hand, the Group has approved an ethical code that all employees are obliged to comply with, including procedures for the prevention of money laundering, and it is subject to the ethical and behavioural standards established by the INAF. The Department of Regulatory Compliance is responsible for supervising internal regulations. Operational risk During 2010 the Group continued developing the tasks that allow it to adapt to the EU Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), set forth in Law 14/2010, which has implications in the greater transparency and protection of clients when contracting financial products and services. In addition, in managing this inherent risk in the marketing of products and services to the Group’s clients there is a procedure established so that before launching any product, the departments involved in monitoring (among others, Middle Office, Internal Audit, Legal and Regulatory Compliance) give their opinion with regard to the suitability of the product, its characteristic and the associated risks prior to marketing the product. Operational risk is understood as the risk of losses deriving from insufficiency or errors resulting from internal processes, individuals and external systems or events. Capital management The responsibility for monitoring and controlling the Group’s operational risk falls to the Internal Audit Department, which maintains the database of operational incidents and presents the corrective measures to the General Management and the Audit Commission. In the management of capital, the aim of the Group is not only to maintain a capital rating that is sufficient to support current and future business activities, and to comply with the requirements of the supervisor, but also to have a level of capital available that reflects the Group’s financial strength and high degree of solvency. The efficient operation of the system of internal control generates added value for the Group to the extent that it enables management to be improved, thus guaranteeing the efficiency of the business processes of business and aiding compliance with the legal regulations in force in each country where the Group has a presence. At the end of the year the solvency rating stood at 23.96%, more than double the minimum level of 10% demanded by the supervisor, and well over with regard to the comparable average rating for European financial institutions. The Group’s own adjusted resources have reached 390.58 million Euros and the Group has a 227.54 million euro surplus of its own resources. Reputational risk The reputational risk is defined as the current or potential revenue and capital risk deriving from a negative perception of the image of the Group held by the clients, the counterparties, the shareholders or the regulatory body. 79 In September 2010 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision approved the increase in the minimum requirements for the capital of financial entities, so that the minimum core equity will need to be higher than 4.5% (compared to 2% previously) and the entities will have to keep an additional provision of 2.5% capital conservation, and depending on the circumstances, an additional anticyclical provision of up to 2.5% of the capital. In addition, the minimum Tier I rating increases to 8.5% (compared to 6% previously) and the total minimum capital rating to 10.5% (compared to 8% previously). In this environment, where there are international pressures for the financial system to increase its level of capital in order to adapt to the new solvency requirements, Andbanc finds itself in an excellent solvency position, with a core equity rating of 19,97%, i.e. the amount of net core capital from non-material assets of 325.58 million Euros. 80 81 6. Social Indicators 2010 was a year of movements, with fluctuating financial markets, elections and political changes, climatological and human catastrophes, sports milestones, cultural events, technological innovations; all in all, an eventful year that left its mark on all the participants involved. Andbanc has taken inspiration from this involvement to continue with the commitment adopted by the organisation, which year after year has continued its support, with participation at both a local and global level in events that took place over this year. young people is the annual scholarships awarded to La Gavernera Children’s Care Home. These scholarships, a result of the agreement signed between Andbanc and the Government of Andorra in 2001, are awarded to the children being cared for in this centre for different reasons, and their aim is to allow the children and young people residing in the home to pursue higher studies and professional training or pursue activities outside of school or activities to supplement the compulsory classes, so that they can achieve the best possibilities and the best results in their academic training. These scholarships are conceded at the behest of the group of educators that monitors each of the children and young people in the home. For some years now, Andbanc’s commitment as an organisation has spread throughout the human team of which it consists. As a corporate society, the Associació Solidària de Col·laboradors d’Andbanc (ASCA), set up in 2007, supplements Andbanc’s solidarity initiatives by coordinating the actions of all the company’s employees and making their efforts more efficient in terms of projecting and supporting the demands for solidarity aid to several projects led by the employees. Mention should be made of the collaboration each summer with AINA and the Father Ramon of Canillo in publishing the songbook that the children take with them to summer camp, and the activities that the youth club organises over the year. This aid enables them to award grants to children from disadvantaged families, helping them to enjoy a few weeks in the countryside with their friends. The initiatives related to children, the young or groups at risk have been carried out in a spirit of altruism, and they have supported several solidarity projects on both a national and international level. Some of this year’s projects were aimed at the youngsters of La Gavernera, a children’s care home with which the Association has collaborated since its creation. Other projects have included the collection of food and medicines organised by the people of Andorra for the refugee camps in Tinduf or for a dispensary in Haiti. In addition, they have provided economic aid for girls in Sierra Leona and Morocco, to help them receive the medical treatment they need for the illnesses they suffer. The Association has also sponsored an eleven year old boy from Chile, to help in his personal and educational development. Yet it not only offers economic support for projects. In 2010 it provided support for the campaign led by the Vicens Ferrer Foundation to present the Nobel Prize candidature for this Catalan philanthropist. Andbanc and sport The 2009-2010 season was once again an opportunity for the Andbanc basketball team to shine in the national League. The team ended the regular phase as unbeaten leader, reaching the Final Four as a clear favourite for the title. The Andbanc team, made up almost exclusively of bank staff, is continuing its run of successes. An example in the field of support and help for children and 82 Andbanc freestyle team is made up of young runners who are obtaining excellent results in the competitions they take part in. In spite of a year plagued with injuries, the riders have demonstrated their competitive spirit and have participated successfully in various events held throughout the season. Skiing continues to be one of the sports receiving the most support, since, in addition to the aforementioned international competitions, there has also been collaboration with the now traditional Manuel Cerqueda Memorial Race for Veteran Skiers, organised by the Andorra Ski Club. The competition took place on the Vallnord slopes, in the Arinal sector, with close to 100 skiers participating in the giant slalom category. The world of motor sport has continued to receive support from Andbanc. The rally motorcycle rider Cyril Despres, a resident of Andorra, won the 2010 Dakar Argentina-Chile Rally, as well as OiLibya to Morocco and the Kenny Enduro. The Andbanc rider had a difficult season plagued by injuries, yet this didn’t prevent him from achieving the hoped for results. In addition, Cyril Despres and his partner Àlex Antor organised the 2nd Raid for promising young sportsmen and women. The aim was to apply their experience to help youngsters practise and learn about the sport by participating in an activity designed to boost their personal and professional development. A score of young hopefuls took part in this year’s event, heading off to the mountainous area known as Ensagents (Encamp) in order practise a range of activities and to demonstrate their ability to work together as a team, to test their physical stamina, their determination, their skill in the sport and the competitiveness that every sportsperson displays. They spent the whole day sharing experiences with people related to the sport at a high level (professional sportsmen, trainers, doctors) while combining this with sport activities and motivational talks. Andorra’s Olympic team The sports section continues to be one of the most important areas in which Andbanc collaborates, having been involved for years in sponsoring sport through the clubs, the Andorran federations and the Andorran Olympic Committee (AOC), in order to improve Andorran sport and reinforce the external image of Andorra. 2010 was a busy year for the AOC’s sportsmen and women. In February they took part in the Winter Olympic Games held in Vancouver, Canada. The results were judged to be acceptable, above all in terms of looking to the future and the 2014 Games in Sochi. Moreover, this year saw the presentation of the team sent to the very first Youth Olympic Games, held in Singapore from the 14th to 28th of August. This competition was aimed at youngsters from 14 to 18 years old, and the Principality participated with four representatives from the Athletics, Judo, Gymnastics and Swimming federations. The president of the Andorran Gymnastics Federation, Eva Rodríguez, was mission leader for this expedition, with Francesc García and Miquel Ripoll providing technical support. The flag-bearer for Andorra was Mònica Ramirez. Basketball and football have also received special attention under the sponsorship of Andbanc, with these sports being promoted both with Andorran youngsters and those from neighbouring countries. This year’s Campus Nike organised two basketball and football events, in the Joan Alay Pavilion, the Stadium of the MI General Council and the Andorra Vella Communal stadium, in which boys and girls were able to learn In terms of sporting events, a highlight this year once again was the freestyle team. The youngest skiers have helped to give this modality a higher profile. Freestyle is a sport that is becoming established in the country and is winning over many new fans attracted by its spectacular nature, and Andbanc is committed to supporting this new trend. The Andorran 83 the techniques of each sport at the hands of their leading exponents. In this 12th edition they were accompanied by the footballers Pedro Rodríguez, Sergi Busquets and Bojan Krkic, in addition to the young player Marc Muniesa, and from basketball Juan Carlos Navarro and Ricky Rubio from FC Barcelona and Rudy Fernández, a player with the US league’s Portland Trail Blazers. Those in the first session were lucky enough to be able to play alongside and against one of the Campus’s most veteran participants, “la Bomba” Navarro, and homage was paid to him by all those present, in appreciation of his participation in these 12 years of Campus Nike. As for football, Bojan and Muniesa brought the first session to a close with a feast of football for the participants in this eagerly-awaited event held every summer. Those who were indeed eagerly awaited were the footballers Pedro and Busquets, recently arrived from the World Cup and newly crowned world champions. During the second session the basketball players also had the privilege of training with two important players, Ricky Rubio and Rudy Fernández, who answered also all the questions that the young participants put to them. playing a leading part. This event is sure to become a point of reference for all promising basketball players, some of which are beginning to confirm their talents at the ABC. The aim in this Campus is to work on and improve the different technical aspects of the game with a great team of professionals and in conditions that are second to none; working in reduced groups to enable individual monitoring of each participant and aided by the latest technologies for obtaining data that can then be analysed to check the progress of the players from several countries taking part in this Campus. This fifth year saw the presence of Darryl Middleton, whose long career has made him an institution in the world of basketball, and who at 44 continues to be active. One of the organisers, Ferran Martínez, declared in the opening press conference that the Campus has become a training camp that is a reference model in Spain. The majority of the participants are Spanish, although this year saw the participation of two players from Senegal. Golf continues to be one of Andbanc’s leading targets for sponsorship. This year the Andbanc Golf Circuit celebrated its tenth anniversary, returning to its usual format of five stages plus a final one. One of the Circuit’s aims has always been to provide access to prestigious Spanish courses. This year the heats were disputed in the following courses: Panoràmica (Vinaròs), Torremirona (one of the Circuit’s new courses), Masia Bach (a first time choice for the Circuit), and the classic course for the event - Costa Daurada. The last course, and the last heat for participating in the final, took place at the Cerdaña Golf Club course. Those classifying in first position for the championship had the opportunity to take part in the final, to be held in the El Saler golf course in Valencia, and thus enjoy a course considered to be one of the ten 10 best rounds in Spain and in the world. Inaugurated in 1968, it is one of the best courses in Europe, with a high technical level and great visual beauty. Designed by Javier Arana, it is perfectly in tune with its natural setting in the protected nature reserve of El Saler, in the Valencia Albufera. Bojan Krkic and Marc Muniesa at Nike Camp 2010. Also in the field of basketball, the elite sport repeated the success of Global Tech, organised by the Esport en Joc and Global Sports Advisors, with Manel Bosch and Ferran Martínez 84 every age group, the star performer was the American pianist Joshua Edelman, a distinguished pianist and composer born in New York. Edelman settled in Madrid, where he has made a name for himself in the field of jazz and teaching. During his career he has participated in numerous international festivals and is regularly invited to perform at the Cafè Central in Madrid - one of the Spanish capital’s jazz temples. In 2004 Edelman was awarded the prize for the best Spanish group for his performance at the 25th Grenada international Jazz Festival. This year, once again, saw the awarding of the Manel Cerqueda Short Novel Prize, presented during the literary gala night organised annually by the Circle of Arts and Letters. These prizes are awarded to the best works presented in different artistic disciplines. 2010 saw the largest number of works presented in the history of the awards, with 16 works being presented. The 3,500€ prize for short novel was awarded to the work entitled “Un camí entre les vinyes”, by the author M. Angels Bosch. El Saler, Valencia. .Andbanc Golf Circuit 2010 Andbanc and culture Andbanc and the business world Andbanc is continuing with its unconditional support for culture, in recognition of its vital role as one of the mainstays of society as a whole. The bank provides support for a variety of cultural initiatives in order to disseminate the Principality’s rich cultural offerings to the maximum. An example of this would be the collaboration we enjoy with the Spanish, Portuguese and French embassies for disseminating the cultures of these countries in Andorra. Andbanc, together with the other financing bodies in the country, are also promoting initiatives in the business world, particularly their collaboration in organising the Family Business Forum, an event which was a great success in terms of participation. This year’s 9th Family Business Forum focused on Innovation and Growth in business. As usual, the EFA invited distinguished speakers to discuss the aforementioned conference topic. This year the speakers were: The collaboration with the Spanish embassy has led to a series of established cultural projects such as painting exhibitions, this year featuring the Valencian artist Vicens Talens, and the jazz concert, this year with the pianist Joshua Edelman. The exhibition by the painter from Valencia, entitled “Amor loco”, is being shown for the first time in Andorra. This is his latest production, and includes sculptures and installations as well as pictures. A characteristic feature of this work is the movement of sinuous shapes, the use of colour as a fundamental element and a playful focus of the artist’s work. Antoni Esteve, doctor in pharmaceutics, chairman of Laboratoris Esteve, a family business and international chemical and pharmaceutical group. Esteve is also chairman of the Fundació Príncep de Girona, a foundation committed to research projects, entrepreneurship and business excellence. In addition he is chairman of the board of directors of the Blood and Tissue Bank (BTB), of the Generalitat de Catalunya’s Department of Health. In the case of the concert performance, part of the Concerts en família series and aimed at a broad-based audience and at 85 Carles Sumarroca is vice-chairman of the COMSA-EMTE group. He was formerly Managing Director and CEO of the COMSA-EMTE S.A. group. Mr Sumarroca has a higher degree in telecommunications engineering from the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya and a Master in Economics and Business Management from the University of Navarre. enabling them to obtain a digital identification of the user’s foot with all its anatomical details: from the length, to the measurement of the force or pressure exerted when walking. Prof. Pankaj Ghemawat has a degree in applied mathematics from Harvard College, a doctorate in economics from Harvard University, and is a consultant to McKinsey & Company. He is the youngest professor at the Harvard Business School, and has been a member of the School for 25 years. He currently holds the chair in global strategy at the IESE Business School. He is a consultant for various governments and transnational companies. He is the author of several books of major academic importance, such as “Commitment” (Free Press 1991), “Games Businesses Play” (MIT Press 1998), “Strategy and the Business Landscape” (Pearson Prentice Hall, 3rd edition 2009), “Redefining Global Strategy” (Harvard Business School Press, 2007) and “Globalization SOS” (Harvard Business School Press 2010). Julian Sanchez, CEO of Sacha London To discuss the financial and economic subjects of the day and the unrest in the markets, Andbanc offered its clients a talk given by one of the leading analysts in this matter, Prof. Emilio Ontiveros. Professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid and also lecturer at the Wharton School (University of Pennsylvania). A founding member of Analistas Financieros Internacionales (AFI), he also works as a financial consultant for Madrid City Council and the Spanish Government, as well as numerous companies that require his service. All these details are included in the person’s personal identity document, and allow them to order their shoes made to measure. The ladies among those attending were able to enjoy a session of extracting the ID for their feet, to be applied to one of the models of shoes that the Sacha London team has designed for the coming season. The shoes will be distributed during the first quarter of the year. One of the most successful events held in November, was the presentation of the company Sacha London, specializing in marketing footwear for women with more than half a century experience. Was included in a comunication concerning the subject of innovation management and business in the companies, which was presented by its CEO and owner Julian Sanchez. With the collaboration of Inescop, the technological institute of footwear, Sacha London has created the ‘footwear ID card’, 86 can add to the collection without inconvenience. One of the materials that Andbanc uses in large quantities and that can prolong its useful life after its initial use is paper. During 2010 a number of initiatives were put into practice, such as insisting on printing on both sides of the page, replacing paper copies with electronic ones wherever possible, or printing in black and white instead of colour. In this way, a reduction of some 32,930 Kg of paper was achieved this year compared with the 40,110 Kg in 2010. Andbanc also handles the recycling of the toner for printers and faxes, and collected 260 of these altogether in 2010. With regard to batteries, we are continuing to provide the company’s employees with bins for depositing their own batteries and those used at work, and this year 32 kilos of batteries were collected. Andbanc and BES, conference about Relations between Andorra- Portugal Within the framework of international collaboration, Andbanc signed a commercial relationship agreement with the Portuguese bank, Banco do Espiritu Santo, BES, and therefore a talk was held at Andbanc headquarters to present the agreement. Entitled, “Relations between Andorra and Portugal: the management of investments from abroad”, and organised by the managers from Andbanc and Banco Espirito Santo, the Portuguese group were invited and the event was attended by the chairman of Andbanc, Mr Manel Cerqueda, and the Portuguese Ambassador to Andorra, His Excellency Mr. Mario Damas Nunes. These initiatives underline Andbanc’s desire to participate in the development of the society in which we all live. Andbanc and the environment Once again this year the environmental targets set by the organisation have focused on continuing to promote social awareness (that of employees, suppliers and clients), with a reduction in the consumption of raw materials and energy, as well as the recycling of these elements. We are continuing the selective collection of plastic, glass and paper among employees at central services, siting containers in areas that are easy for everyone to access, so that everybody 87 7. Governance Structure 88 Presidency Organizational Structure Óscar Ribas Reig Honorary Chairman Jordi Comas Planas Chief Executive Officer Manel Cerqueda Donadeu Chairman Ricard Tubau Roca Deputy Chief Executive Officer Business Oriol Ribas Duró Vice Chairman José Luis Muñoz Lasuén Deputy Chief Executive Officer Corporate Services Board of Directors Carles Aso Miranda Deputy General Manager Markqueting anb Business Support Enric Palmitjavila Ribó Director Josep M. Cabanes Dalmau Deputy General Manager Business Andorra Manel Ros Gener Director Josep Casanovas Arasa Deputy General Manager Risk Control and Finance Xavier Santamaría Mas Director IGESA Director (represented by Josep Vicens Torradas) Jordi Checa Gutés Deputy General Manager Human Resources CEDO, SA. Director (represented by Pere Grau Hoyos) José Ignacio García Fernández Deputy General Manager International Private Banking Reig Finances, SA. Director (represented by Germán Castejón Fernández) Jordi Comas Planas Director Josep García Nebot Deputy General Manager Compliance and Operational Support Josep Sansa Torres Secretary (not director) Angel Martínez Belmonte Deputy General Manager Organization and Systems Santiago Mora Torres Deputy General Manager Investment 89 8. Locations and Addresses Head Office C/Manuel Cerqueda i Escaler, 6 AD700 Escaldes-Engordany, Andorra Tel. +376 873 333 –Fax +376 873 353 Codi Swift BACA AD AD [email protected] Internacional Private Banking C/Manuel Cerqueda i Escaler, 6 AD700 Escaldes-Engordany, Andorra Tel. +376 873 345 Private Banking C/Manuel Cerqueda i Escaler, 6 AD700 Escaldes-Engordany, Andorra Tel. +376 873 387 Retail Banking C/Manuel Cerqueda i Escaler, 6 AD700 Escaldes-Engordany, Andorra Tel. +376 873 305 Andbanc (Bahamas) Limited British Colonial Centre of Commerce 1 Bay Street 3rd floor, Suit 304 Nassau, Bahamas Tel. + 1 242 3224081 [email protected] 90 Andprivatewealth Chile Avda. Kennedy 5454 oficina 902 Vitacura. Santiago de Chile. Chile Tel. + 569 954 954 04 [email protected] Andbanc (Panamá) S.A. Torre Generali (floor 26) Samuel Lewis Avenue, Street 54 East Obarrio Area. Panamá Tel. + 507 263 66 96 [email protected] Andbanc Luxemburg SA 7A Rue Robert Stümper L-2557 Luxemburg Tel. + 352 27 49 76 50 [email protected] AndPrivate Wealth Rue du Commerce 9 5496 1211 Gèneve 11, Switzerland Tel. + 41 228 183 940 [email protected] Andbanc Asset Management Luxembourg SA 7A Rue Robert Stümper L-2557 Luxemburg Tel. + 352 26 19 39- 1 [email protected] Representation office in Uruguay Av. Luis A. de Herrera 1248 Oficina 414, Torre B World Trade Center 11300 Montevideo. Uruguay Tel. + 598 2628 6885 [email protected] Andbanc Luxembourg Limited Hong Kong Two exchange Square 8 Connaught Place, Central Hong Kong. China Tel. + 852 229 724 15 [email protected] Quest Capital Advisers S.A. Edificio @1, piso 3, Of 303 Zonamérica Ruta 8Km 17500 91600 Montevideo. Uruguay Tel. + 598 2518 2222 [email protected] Columbus de México Blvd. Adolfo Lopez Mateos 2370 – 1 Piso 01060 Mexico. D.F. Tel. + 52 55 53 772 810 [email protected] AndPrivate Wealth Management Miami 1221 Brickell Avenue Suite 1550 Miami. Florida 33131 Tel. + 1 305 702 0600 [email protected] 91
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