Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Generation and

Strategic Assessment of the Role and Value of Generation and

The 14th Annual APGTF Workshop:
The Role of Fossil Fuel Power Plant in
Providing Flexible Generation
Strategic Assessment of the
Role and Value of Generation and Storage
Flexibility in Low Carbon Energy Futures
Goran Strbac
Imperial College London
Topics
• Challenges of integrating low-carbon technologies
in future electricity systems
• Role of flexible fossil fuel plant in facilitating cost
effective integration of renewables
• Benefits of and volume of the market for flexibility
• Impact on plant operating patterns and load factors
• Benefits of energy storage
• Allocating cross-border capacity for exchange of
energy and flexibility
• Rewarding flexibility - challenges for market
design
2
UK Response to Climate Change
Challenge
- 2020: 25-30% of all electricity
demand to be met by renewable
generation
- 2030+:
- Largely decarbonised electricity
generation, while……
2008/09 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
AS AT 31st DECEMBER 2007
400kV Substations
275kV Substations
132kV Substations
400kV Circuits
275kV Circuits
132kV Circuits
Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage
Pentland Firth
Connected at 400kV
Connected at 275kV
Hydro Generation
THE SHETLAND ISLANDS
6
1
5
7
2
8
9
4
10
3
3
Tongland
2
2
- Electrifying segments of
transport and heat sectors
14
1
4
3
1
4
2
3
17
9
16
4
15
5
7
6
14
13
11
13
12
12
10
11
5
9
…in order to reduce CO2
emissions by 80% by 2050
10
7
8
6
9
5
8
7
3
6
3
ISSUE B 15-07-09 41/177625 C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999
Balancing and Need for Flexibility
Number of hours with zero or
negative prices
High Generation
Flexibility
Low Generation
Flexibility
200
>1500
Unprecedented price
volatility…. value of energy
frequently lower than value of
flexibility
leading to increased base-load & peak generation investment risks...
...while providing significant opportunities for flexible generation,
demand side response, storage, interconnection
4
Valuing Flexible Balancing Technologies
Flexible
Generation
Storage
Increasing asset
utilisation and
efficiency of
operation
Interconnection
Demand
Response
Cost effectiveness of alternative
technology options will be system specific
Key questions:
(1) What are the
performance and cost
targets for alternative
technologies?
(2) Understand the
competitiveness and
synergies between
alternative
technologies
5
Quantifying the value of fossil-fuel plant flexibility –
advanced tool for time-domain plant scheduling
Wind statistics
Storage Capacity:
18GWh
Rating:
+/- 4GW
Round-trip efficiency: 72%
60000
Demand net wind (MW)
50000
0.7
wind
forecast
0.6
0.5
0.4
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0.3
Time (hr)
0.2
wind, demand,
outage realisation
0.1
16:00
15:00
14:00
13:00
12:00
11:00
10:00
09:00
08:00
07:00
06:00
05:00
04:00
03:00
02:00
01:00
00:00
0
Time (hrs)
Wind risk
40000
35000
30000
Demand risk
00:00
23:00
22:00
21:00
20:00
19:00
18:00
17:00
16:00
15:00
14:00
13:00
12:00
11:00
10:00
09:00
08:00
25000
Time (hrs)
Demand uncertainty
model
startup
Available
Online
λ Δt
Unavailable
μ Δt
Outage
model
50000
Deterministic UC
40000
50th percentile
30000
Reserve
20000
10000
0
-10000 0
-20000
4
8
12
16
20
24
Time horizon (hr)
50000
40000
70000
Stochastic
UC
60000
Generation (MW)
45000
Demand + outages net wind
(MW)
Aggregate demand (MW)
50000
Demand + outages net wind
(MW)
demand
forecast
Wind uncertainty
model
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000 0
-20000
Deterministic
security targets
Wind
40000
Storage
coal
30000
CCGT
20000
Nuclear
10000
4
8
12
16
20
24
Time horizon (hr)
Outage risk
Scheduling
model
50000
VOLL
30,000 €/ MWh
Optimised
reserve and
response
requirements
and delivery
online capacity
0
Demand
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141
151
161
0.8
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137
145
153
161
Aggregate wind power (p.u.)
1
0.9
• Technical and
cost parameters
(Rated output,
MSG, Ramp-rates,
Min up-/downtime, Response
slope, Efficiency
curve, Fuel costs,
Start-up costs,
Emissions)
Time (hr)
Dispatch,
operating
costs, CO2
emissions...
6
Flexibility of generation, not only capacity
and energy provision, will be critical
Enhanced flexibility (MSG)
& efficiency
Low Nuclear
High Nuclear
7
Enhancing flexibility will lead to increase in number of
start ups
Flexible
Inflexible
8
Impact of flexibility on plant portfolio
energy production
Low nuclear
High nuclear
Will future market design
adequately reward flexibility?
9
Time resolution & value of fast peaking plant (2020)
10
Impact of fast peaking plant on number of start-ups
11
Value of interconnection in facilitating integration of
intermittent renewable generation
Two identical
system:
no value in energy
arbitrage
Benefits of sharing reserve
across 2GW interconnection
600
Million € per year
500
400
300
200
100
0
Benefits of EU-wide integration
Of balancing market €2.5bn in
15% wind
30% wind
45% wind
2030
Co-optimisation of energy and reserve?
12
Can flexibility be traded cross-border?
Member state-centric or EU-wide
capacity adequacy market?
Additional peaking capacity (GW)
206
92
48
103
0
11
17
EU Wide approach
can save 100-160 GW
of plant!
65
0
Baseline
Can you really trust
…… when it comes to
security ?
Integrated
Int Low TX
Int Self-secure Int EU reserve
Int DSR
Savings up to €7bn
per annum
13
Significant increase in frequency regulation
requirements driven by reduced Inertia
250
Response (MW)
200
Enhanced
150
100
Standard
50
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
60
Power output (MW)
14
Value of generators with high response capability
Base case
High nuclear case
15
Can smart refrigerators
displace a power station?
?
+
=
...but the beer is getting warm!
DDC
No DDC
Load p.f. (W)
50
45
40
35
30
25
0
20
40
60
80
100
Time (min)
120
140
160
180
fridges are supporting the system
Cost savings per fridge (£/appl)
Load per fridge (p.f) Demand 60Gw 100% Refigerators, step 1.320GW ramp 0
55
600
500
RES2050
NUC2050
400
RES2030
300
NUC2030
RES2050W
200
NUC2050W
100
RES2030W
NUC2030W
0
25%
50%
75%
DD penetration
100%
CUR2011
16
Savings facilitated by storage Renewables scenario 2030
Cost of storage £/kw
5000
2500
2000
1500
1250
1000
17
How competitive is storage?
Storage
cost £/kw
(£/kW.year)
Cost
of storage
250
2500
100
1000
250
2500
100
1000
250
2500
100
1000
250
2500
100
1000
3.8
14.8
3.3
15.6
3.3
12.9
2.9
6.1
Annual savings (£bn/year)
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
Storage only
Interconnection
Flex. generation
Flexible demand
Installed storage capacity (GW)
OPEX
G CAPEX
T CAPEX
IC CAPEX
D CAPEX
S CAPEX
Total
18
Impact of Efficiency of Storage – market signals
19
Operating patterns and life-time
Distributed
Bulk
20
Complexity of storage:
Split benefits
Balancing
services
Can the market facilitate this?
Network
services
Competitiveness of flexible generation
For low cost of generation
flexibility (GL), build ~16-18
GW for high interconnection
levels, ~28-36 GW for low
interconnection levels
For high cost of flexibility
(GH), build ~10 GW
RENEWABLES
Observations
•
In low carbon electricity system, volume of energy produced
by fossil-fuel generation will reduce but the value will
increase significantly
• Synergies and conflicts between energy and flexibility
markets need to be fully understood
• Flexibility needs to be rewarded – balancing and ancillary
services markets to reflect the value of of flexibility
• Present and proposed market designs will continue to
undervalue flexibility - all market participants should be
balance responsible
• Market needs to facilitate competition between different
flexibility options
• “Split benefits” of storage pose significant market
23
Acknowledgments
Modeling presented was carried out by Imperial
team, including Danny Pudjianto, Fei Teng,
Rodrigo Moreno, Marko Aunedi, Predrag Djapic,
Christos Vasilakos, Vincenzo Trovato
24
The 14th Annual APGTF Workshop:
The Role of Fossil Fuel Power Plant in
Providing Flexible Generation
Strategic Assessment of the
Role and Value of Generation and Storage
Flexibility in Low Carbon Energy Futures
Goran Strbac
Imperial College London