middle east private capital survey 2016
Transcription
middle east private capital survey 2016
cluttons.com MIDDLE EAST PRIVATE CAPITAL SURVEY 2016 Part 2 2 cluttons.com Introduction Cluttons’ Middle East Private Capital Survey, carried out in partnership with YouGov, investigates investment trends and behaviour of the Gulf states’ high net worth individuals (HNWI) in order to gain a meaningful understanding of their global and regional investment intentions. Effectively tracking global private investment activity is challenging. This study addresses the issue by surveying HNWI across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states of Bahrain, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the rest of the GCC (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) to gauge sentiment, rather than deal activity. The survey was conducted among HNWI who either currently have, or intend in the future to make, an investment of USD 1 million or more in international property. The results of the study reflect the combined views, investment activity and intentions of 127 HNWI: 34 in the UAE, 30 in Oman, 33 in Bahrain and 30 across the rest of the GCC. Together the GCC states represent a significant source of global capital outflows. In this second paper as part of our Middle East Private Capital Survey report series, we will specifically be examining the locations within the Middle East that GCC HNWI are intending to target for property investments during 2016. The report considers the drivers of these investors’ intentions as an indicator of future trends in international capital allocation, both geographically and at a sector level. There is a particular focus on investor appetite for real estate investment in Dubai, but we also investigate which other Middle East locations are competing for investment capital. cluttons.com 3 Economic backdrop As we reported in the first part of our 2016 Middle East Private Capital Report series, the global economic environment appears to be increasingly vulnerable. Disappointing economic data from China and the EU, in addition to instability within the EU and the collapse in oil prices, top the list of headwinds hindering global growth. Previous editions of our survey have suggested that economic conditions play a central role in influencing the investment behaviour of HNWI. In fact, results from our last International Private Capital Survey hinted at regional locations around the world playing a central role as property investment magnets for indigenous HNWI. In this report we will seek to examine this theme further using the results of our 2016 HNWI survey from across the GCC. For the Gulf states as a whole, the oil prices collapse that began in mid-2014 has certainly put budgets under pressure and has also triggered a series of macro policy amendments, aimed at tackling the projected budget shortfalls as a result of diminished oil revenues. Chief of these has been the phasing out of energy subsidies, which has seen the deregulation of fuel prices and the rise in utility tariffs across the GCC. While this may not impact household budgets in the Gulf for now, once crude oil prices start to stage a comeback, there will be a clear squeeze on household finances. Furthermore, with a new value added tax (VAT) being rolled out across the region, as well as ongoing debates about additional taxes, there is a distinct sense of urgency to diversify state incomes and develop sustainable growth programmes. This will likely raise the cost of living across the Gulf in the medium term. $ per litre Fuel prices per litre 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Qatar Bahrain Oman UK USA World Source: globalpetrolprices.com There has also been anecdotal evidence to suggest that public sector spending levels in the Gulf have been curtailed as a result of the weak global economic outlook and fall in oil prices. This has obvious ramifications for the level of business activity in the region, which is continuing to slow. The IMF forecasts GCC economic growth to reach 3.1% this year (October 2015), below the downwardly revised 3.4% now forecast for the global economy as a whole. 4 cluttons.com cluttons.com 5 6 cluttons.com GCC economic growth forecasts Forecast 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 -10 2000 GDP % change, constant prices 30 World Source: IMF Real estate investment still high on the agenda The appetite for global real estate investments by our HNWI sample did not seem to be dented by the global and regional economic slowdown. In fact, the majority (63%) of HNWI investors we spoke to report that they are likely to invest in their most preferred real estate investment location during 2016, with one in four saying that they are ‘very likely’ to invest. A quarter of investors say that they are unlikely to invest in their preferred location in 2016, while one in ten (9%) are unsure whether or not they will invest. Likelihood of global property investment by GCC-based HNWI 63% 27% Of investors are likely to invest in their preferred location in 2016 Of investors are unlikely to invest in their preferred location in 2016 Manama 43% 21% 23% Muscat Other GCC 9% 9% 40% 10% 40% 20% 0% 24% Somewhat likely 16% 42% 41% Very likely 17% 14% 24% 17% 14% Somewhat unlikely 9% 10% 3% 10% 10% 80% 18% 10% 60% UAE 37% Very unlikely 100% 26% All GCC Not sure Source: Cluttons, YouGov cluttons.com 7 Interestingly, the likelihood of investing in their top global pick was lowest among UAE based HNWI, with just 18% claiming that they would be ‘very likely’ to invest in international property this year. For the rest of the GCC HNWI (based in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar), the likelihood of investing in a location outside their countries was significantly higher at 41%, perhaps reflecting a stronger need or desire to secure income streams outside their home markets. The UAE government has arguably been amongst the most proactive in the GCC and was the first country in the Gulf to remove fuel subsidies and begin a programme to shrink the USD 106 billion annual energy subsidy budget (IMF). Furthermore, while oil is a significant contributor to the UAE’s overall growth, the dependence amongst the seven member emirates varies greatly, with oil accounting for roughly half of Abu Dhabi’s GDP, while this figure is significantly lower at 4% to 5% in Dubai. The region as a whole remains very sentiment driven and while business confidence levels have dipped across the Gulf, confidence and sentiment boosting measures in the UAE continue to be rolled out by the government. For example, the ongoing and virtually continuous investment in large scale infrastructure projects such as the second phase of the USD 32 billion Al Maktoum International Airport, the development of a third line on the Dubai Metro network, Route 2020, and the USD 1.6 billion expansion of Jebel Ali Port are all helping to sustain confidence in the market, which may make the desire for a global property investment less urgent. This is reflected in the fact that almost a third (31%) of UAE HNWI in our sample named the country’s three largest cities – Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah – as their three most preferred investment locations in the Middle East. That said, there is anecdotal evidence to suggest that even Dubai, which has thus far remained resilient to the oil price fall out, has begun to see redundancies in the finance and banking sector, a key pillar in the emirate’s economy. It is still too early to assess how this may impact capital outflow rates. For now, 61% of our GCC HNWI sample have indicated that they are expecting to spend over USD 1 million on an individual property outside their city of residence during 2016, with a further 18% claiming that they would be looking to invest at least USD 1.5 million in an international property asset. GCC HNWI spending budgets for 2016 All property valued Muscat UAE Other GCC Under $500k 7% 6% 7% 3% 13% $500k+ 9% 6% 7% 12% 10% $750k+ 8% $1m+ 61% $1.5m+ $2m+ 13% 4% 9% 7% 6% 10% 67% 73% 54% 50% 15% 7% 17% 13% - - 11% 7% $3m+ 1% - - - 3% None of the above 2% - - 3% 3% Source: Cluttons, YouGov 8 Manama cluttons.com cluttons.com 9 10 cluttons.com UAE cities dominate top GCC investment picks Unsurprisingly perhaps, Dubai has emerged as the most preferred location for real estate investment in the Middle East during 2016 by our GCC HNWI sample. Together, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, the UAE capital and Sharjah, the third largest city in the UAE, are by far the most popular investment locations within the GCC region. Dubai features strongly as the number one regional choice for 14% of investors and is named amongst 27% of investors’ top three preferred locations. Abu Dhabi, the Emirati capital, follows Dubai in second place (22%) and then Sharjah (8%), making the three Emirati cities the most popular locations within the GCC. Most preferred investment locations in the GCC 1st Dubai 2nd Abu Dhabi 3rd Sharjah 14% 9% 4% 1% 9% 5% 3% 3% 3% Doha Kuwait City 8% 2% 1% Riyadh 1% 3% Muscat 1%1%1% 1% 0% Most preferred 2nd preferred 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 3rd preferred Source: Cluttons, YouGov cluttons.com 11 Why Dubai? As we previously revealed, regional hubs around the world were playing catch up to top tier investment hubs such as London. Dubai’s strong ranking as a Middle East investment magnet suggests that this trend is gaining traction as the market matures and more investment grade assets materialise. This variation in yields is very much dependent on covernant strengths and the calibre of the occupier. Increasingly, global blue chip corporates are taking up office space in Dubai and are looking at longer lease lengths, which is helping to grow the pool of internationally attractive investment grade assests. Dubai’s attraction stems from its ability to offer a world class business environment and infrastructure that is unmatched anywhere else in the Middle East. Furthermore, the lifestyle available in Dubai through second home ownership is unrivalled in the region, which is a particularly big pull factor for Middle East investors. In our survey HNWI sample, across all asset classes, the majority of respondents claimed they were unsure of which specific area in Dubai they would target for an investment. However, for those who did name specific locations for residential investment, The Springs and Bur Dubai were the most mentioned areas, followed by Deira, Jumeirah Islands and Jumeirah Village. The variety of investment options available in Dubai ranges from low-end, high yielding residential units in peripheral schemes such as International City and Discovery Gardens, to more sophisticated investment options in the office market, where yields can range from 6.5% to 9%. There is also the increasingly popular asset class of worker accommodation, which can offer yields of between 10% and 20%. For the office asset class, Deira and Downtown Dubai are most popular, with Bur Dubai and Business Bay coming in joint second. For retail/hotel and industrial assets, no particular location stood out during our survey. Most popular investment locations in Dubai Office (n=24) Residential (n=25) Retail/Hotel (n=16) The Springs 4 Deira 6 Al Quoz 1 Bur Dubai 1 Bur Dubai 4 Downtown Dubai 6 JAFZA 1 Deira 1 Deira 3 Bur Dubai 4 Don’t know 6 Discovery Gardens 1 Jumeirah Islands 3 Business Bay 4 Downtown Dubai 1 Jumeirah Village 3 Barsha 2 Dubai Marina 1 The Meadows 2 Dubai Silicon Oasis 2 Dubai South / Dubai World Central 1 Arabian Ranches 2 JLT 1 Dubailand 1 Dubailand 1 Don’t know 9 Jumeirah Lake Towers 1 Victory Heights 1 Jumeirah Park 1 The Green Community 1 (DIP) Motor City 1 Jumeirah Park 1 The Palm Jumeirah 1 Downtown Dubai 1 Old Souq 1 The Palm 1 Don’t know 11 Don’t know 8 Source: Cluttons, YouGov 12 Industrial (n=8) cluttons.com Dubai’s top preferred residential and office investment locations 83K 115K Lower limit rents pa (AED) (two-bedroom properties) 102K Lower limit rents pa (AED) (two-bedroom properties) 135K Upper limit rents pa (AED) (two-bedroom properties) 8.08.5% Upper limit rents pa (AED) (two-bedroom properties) 5.56.0% Yields – full buildings Yields Bur Dubai The Springs Downtown Dubai 120 200 7.07.5% PSF Lower limit rents (AED) PSF Upper limit rents (AED) Office markets Deira 60 120 8.59.0% PSF Lower limit rents (AED) PSF Upper limit rents (AED) Yields – full buildings Yields – full buildings Residential markets Source: Cluttons, Dubai Land Department cluttons.com 13 State of Dubai’s residential market Dubai’s residential market is still trailing its 2008 peak by about 20%, despite record growth in values during 2013 (51%), which was primarily fuelled by the city’s winning of the hosting rights for the World Expo in 2020. Following the 2008/2009 market correction, which saw values fall by 49.7% on average across the city and the subsequent recovery, which was hinged on stronger than anticipated economic growth and the dissipation of speculative activity, the market has stabilised to a great extent. This has of course been underpinned by the doubling of property registration fees from 2% to 4%, while at a federal level, the introduction of mortgage caps on borrowing amounts have together curbed activity in the market. At the same time, the global economic outlook has deteriorated, while questions around a potential supply-demand imbalance and the lack of affordable housing options in Dubai have dominated headlines recently. the contribution to overall economic activity from this segment remains small. However, growing anecdotal evidence of job losses in the finance and banking sector is something we are monitoring closely as this is one of the city’s core pillars of growth and has historically been a significant and critical contributor to job creation rates. A fall in the number of new jobs being created by this important business segment has clear consequences for demand levels in the residential sales and leasing markets. We still expect residential values to continue dipping across the city, with average falls in the region of 5% likely during 2016. That said, infrastructure commitments linked to the World Expo are yet to materialise. A 2013 Standard Chartered report suggested that some 300,000 new jobs are likely to be created in the UAE between 2018 and 2021, directly as a result of Expo 2020 and the economy is yet to feel the benefits of this. The vast majority of new jobs are expected to be in Dubai, which should help to offset any slowdown elsewhere in the economy. For now however, we still expect residential values to continue dipping across the city, with average falls in the region of 5% likely during 2016 as affordability constraints and a general liquidity crunch hinder deal activity. There will of course be some submarkets where residential values outperform, particularly areas perceived to be more affordable, or those where there is a genuine demand-supply imbalance. Furthermore, Dubai Municipality reckons that the population will reach five million by 2030, which represents a doubling in current levels. This tends to suggest that residential absorption rates should continue to be relatively healthy and that supply and demand should remain fairly well matched in the medium to long term. And for a property market that is effectively just 14 years old, sentiment plays a large part in influencing purchasing decisions. While the contraction of the global oil and gas sector has also seen a number of redundancies in the emirate, Performance of residential values in key locations across Dubai 3,500 3,000 2,500 AED psf 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 The Springs Jumeirah Island (Villas) Dubai Marina (High end apartments) Source: Cluttons 14 cluttons.com The Palm Jumeirah (Frond Villas) Business Bay (High End Apartments) The Palm Jumeirah (High end apartments) Downtown Dubai Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 0 Looking specifically at the freehold villa market, values are expected to remain in a state of contraction, primarily because of affordability issues. As a result, we expect to see villa values decline by between 5% and 10% this year across the board. cluttons.com 15 16 cluttons.com Dubai’s commercial market appeal Despite a number of obstacles to economic growth, the office market in Dubai remains attractive for both occupiers and investors. Throughout 2015, office rents within most of the main submarkets in the city remained stable. Some areas witnessed an increase in rents, most notably, newly established locations with free-zone licensed areas such as Dubai Design District (D3). D3, which also offers Dubai Economic Department licensing, is designed to cater to the city’s emergent fashion and design industry. This submarket saw rents rise by a meteoric 67% for free-zone licensed space and by 44% for non-free-zone space. in JLT falling by 13%, while upper limit rents fell by 10% during 2015 as landlords in the scheme undercut one another in order to entice demand. This sharp increase was due to favourable pre-lease terms being offerred to initial occupiers and these have gradually faded, with quarterly rental growth now stabilising. Occupiers however, remain very cost conscious. This is fuelling a growing trickle of budget-driven occupiers targeting areas they perceive to offer better value for money. Developers are continuing to rush to cater to the high levels of demand for free-zone space, with established locations such as Dubai Internet City expanding, while the new Dubai Trade Centre District is the latest free-zone to be launched and has one of the highest quoting entry rental levels in the city at AED 190 psf. As a result, we are seeing occupiers swapping locations in Deira and Bur Dubai, for submarkets such as Business Bay, which investors are able to access, unlike free A couple of submarkets, such as Sheikh Zayed Road and Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT), have seen entry level rents fall over the last 12-18 months. JLT remains oversupplied, predominantly with Grade B space and as even more stock enters the market, rents here are likely to come under further pressure. The recent upturn in handovers at Mazaya Business Avenue has, for instance, resulted in starting level rents Away from JLT, historic districts along Dubai Creek, such as Bur Dubai, Deira and Garhoud, remain hubs for local businesses and are unsurprisingly among the top office market locations being targeted by our HNWI sample this year. Over 2015, the continued popularity of locations in Old Dubai was demonstrated in the 20% rise, to AED 60 psf, in lower limit rents in Bur Dubai, while upper limit rents in Garhoud rose by 16% to AED 80 psf. zones, which remain under government, or quasi government, management structures. Business Bay offers occupiers more modern space than is available in Deira and Bur Dubai and is also arguably more centrally located, so it is unsurprising to see Business Bay emerge as the second most preferred office investment location in Dubai in our HNWI sample. Tracking HNWI investments is challenging, but the appeal of locations identified by our survey is echoed at an institutional level as well. This is, for instance, reflected in the Kuwait Investment Authority’s (KIA) purchase of the Standard Chartered tower in Downtown Dubai in January. This 13-storey prime office building sold for AED 650 million, with a yield of around 6.5%. KIA is one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and holds USD 592 billion worth of assets globally (Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute). Performance of top preferred office submarkets in Dubai in Q4 2015 (AED psf) Lower limit rents 12 month % change Upper limit rents 12 month % change Deira 60 0% 120 0% Bur Dubai 60 20% 140 -7% Downtown Dubai 120 0% 200 -13% Business Bay 70 0% 140 0% Al Barsha 65 0% 110 10% Dubai Silicon Oasis 45 0% 140 56% Source: Cluttons Tracking HNWI investments is challenging, but the appeal of office investment locations identified by our survey is echoed at an institutional level as well. cluttons.com 17 Dubai real estate transactions in 2015 GCC states UAE Saudi Arabia 9,569 Kuwait 3,568 Qatar 2,797 Oman 1,283 Bahrain 997 Other Arab states 3,511 Jordan Egypt 2,553 Lebanon 2,531 Iraq 2,059 Yemen 975 South Sudan 817 Palestine 576 Libya 474 Algeria 458 Others AED millions Source: Dubai Land Department 18 cluttons.com 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2,948 GCC investors top Dubai property buyers’ league table According to data from the Dubai Land Department, GCC nationals were the largest investors in Dubai real estate in 2015, with a total of AED 44 billion being committed over the course of the year. Emiratis accounted for over half of this investment, with AED 26 billion worth of transactions. 26,038 The next biggest GCC investor group was Saudi Arabia, which contributed AED 9 billion to Dubai real estate over the course of 2015. Behind Saudi Arabia was Kuwait, with AED 3 billion of investment, followed by Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, who made up the remaining contribution. The strength of GCC investment into Dubai real estate over 2015 demonstrates the continued desirability of the emirate as an investment location and arguably the most sought after investment destination in the region. Freehold vs. non-freehold property Interestingly, almost two-thirds (63%) of HNWI respondents planning to invest in Dubai are likely to invest in freehold property only, and a third are likely to invest in either freehold or nonfreehold property. This preference is likely linked to the fact that non-GCC nationals are limited to freehold investment locations, which comprise predominantly of areas in New Dubai and Downtown Dubai and some of its surrounding areas, whereas non-freehold options are confined to Old Dubai, Al Barsha, Jumeirah, Umm Suqeim, etc. HNWI property ownership preferences for assets in Dubai 3% 28% 63% 26,000 24,000 22,000 34% Freehold property Non-freehold property Either freehold or non-freehold property Don’t know Source: Cluttons, YouGov cluttons.com 19 Istanbul emerges as top non-GCC pick Including locations in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, Dubai and Abu Dhabi remain the main investment locations of choice. Istanbul however, comes in third, while Antalya and Turkey, in particular, were also mentioned by a number of our HNWI respondents. Aside from the close cultural links to the Gulf, the Turkish government amended its property ownership laws in 2012, easing access to its property market by international buyers. The maximum size of an overseas property investment was also raised from 2.5 hectares to 60 hectares. This has in part helped to raise Turkey’s investment profile in the Gulf. Turkey’s Land Registry has reported that of the 54,000 property transactions over the last three years, just 2% has been to the international investment community. However this appears to have reached a turning point with almost 30% of all transactions in 2015 being linked to GCC based investors. UAE based investors have been particularly active, with 332 transactions registered to Emirati buyers in 2015. Most preferred property investment locations in the MENA region 1st Dubai 2nd Abu Dhabi 3rd Istanbul 14% 8% 9% 4% Sharjah 4% 9% 5% 3% 3% 1% 1% 3% Riyadh 1% 3% Turkey 1% 2% 1% Doha Kuwait City 3% 2% 1% Muscat 1%1%1% Morocco 1% Tehran 1% Antalya 1% Lebanon 1% Marrakech 1% 0% Most preferred 2nd preferred Source: Cluttons, YouGov 20 cluttons.com 5% 3rd preferred 10% 15% 20% 25% cluttons.com 21 Drawing conclusions for UAE HNWI regional investment Dubai has predictably emerged as the Middle East’s leading investment magnet for our HNWI sample, with over a quarter (27%) naming the emirate in their top three regional investment destinations. It is clear from the league table of target cities that the UAE is a stand out property investment target for GCC-based HNWI. This is in part due to the political stability offered by the emirates, in addition to the wide variety of investment options available to GCC investors, not just in Dubai, but across the rest of the country as well. Sharjah is perceived to offer a more family friendly lifestyle when compared to Dubai and its close links to its Islamic heritage means it chimes well with Middle East based investors. In addition, property values in Sharjah are approximately a third of what they are in Dubai, which has helped to drive up investment activity in the emirate. For instance, at the start of the Syrian civil war, we saw a flight of capital from the wider Levant region targeting Sharjah, with buy-to-let residential properties in central areas of Sharjah being a particular favourite. In Abu Dhabi for instance, while the residential market is relatively small compared to that of Dubai, we have in the past seen investors being drawn in by the lower prices when compared to Dubai. The price points for certain types of property are lower than comparable options in Dubai, which gives those who have been priced out of the Dubai market a chance to invest in similar stock. On Saadiyat Island for instance, where average values for sea view villas currently sit at circa AED 2,250 psf, the best comparable Dubai equivalent would be villas on the Palm Jumeirah, which are considerably more expensive at AED 2,860 psf. The differential is of course in part linked to the quality of lifestyle on offer in Dubai, which is arguably the most cosmopolitan in the region. The importance that regional investment safe havens, such as the UAE and Dubai in particular, play in HNWI investment strategies is clear as evidenced by the outcome of our survey. While global locations such as London and New York will always have their place, the rise of Dubai’s property market over the past 14 years has captured the attention of the region’s wealthy. And despite challenges to the UAE’s economic growth in the short term due to the global headwinds to growth, Dubai’s appeal does not appear to have been dented. Further afield in Sharjah, the emirate’s recent economic diversification efforts have seen the emergence of its first master planned communities, which have been very well received by the local and international investment community. Sharjah has long been viewed as the more affordable alternative to Dubai. However, with the centre of the city quite tightly packed and infrastructure still playing catch up, the government and a handful of developers have recognised the need to grow the city beyond its current boundaries, which has coincided with a rise in demand for gated community living. This has given rise to schemes such as Al Zahia and Tilal City, which are the emirate’s answer to Dubai’s suburban villa communities. At Tilal City, more than 1,800 plots of land have been made available on a leasehold basis and the appetite from regional investors has been tremendous. In the medium to long term, we expect the city’s position to strengthen as it expands and develops further. Moves to cement its position not only as a regional investment hub, but as a commercial nerve centre to fill the geographic void between Europe and Asia, not just for GCC investors, but for other international investors as well are expected to enhance its appeal. In the third and final paper in our Middle East Private Capital Survey report series, we will examine more closely the global locations that GCC HNWI investors have in their sights and the reasons behind this, with a particular focus on the appetite for Iranian and Indian property assets. While global locations such as London and New York will always have their place, the rise of Dubai’s property market over the past 14 years has captured the attention of the region’s wealthy 22 cluttons.com cluttons.com 23 For further details contact Cluttons Faisal Durrani Head of research +44 (0) 20 7647 7166 [email protected] Steven Morgan Chief Executive – Middle East +971 (0) 4 365 7700 [email protected] YouGov Caroline McGarr Research manager +44 (0) 20 7012 6120 [email protected] © Cluttons LLP 2016. This publication is the sole property of Cluttons LLP and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Cluttons LLP. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. 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