Diapositiva 1

Transcription

Diapositiva 1

MACROECONOMIC
STATISTICS
ECONOMIC SCENARIO
FEBRUARY 2015
Deputy Management Office for Programming and Regulation
National Office of Macroeconomic Synthesis
Presentation
o The Constitution of the Republic establishes that the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) shall
implement the monetary, credit, exchange and financial policy formulated by the Executive
Branch, which has as one of its objectives to: “promote levels and relationships between deposit and
lending interest rates that stimulate national savings and the financing of production activities, in order to
maintain price stability and monetary equilibrium within the balance of payments, in accordance with the
economic stability objective defined in the Constitution” (Art. 302 and 303).
o As such, the Fundamental Monetary and Financial Code, published in Official Record No.
332, dated September 12, 2014, stipulates that the BCE “shall develop and publish the following
information on its web page and/or any other media, with the frequency determined by General Management :
1. Figures corresponding to monetary, financial, credit and exchange indicators; 2. National macroeconomic
synthesis statistics; 3. Interest rates; 4. Authorized payment systems and institutions authorized to operate;
and, 5. Additional information required by the Board".
o Within this subject matter area, the BCE publishes the Economic Scenario "Macroeconomic
Statistics" with the latest information available, for the making of economic decisions of
citizenry, domestic and foreign institutions, and government authorities.
Content
I. REAL SECTOR
Quarterly National Accounts, Economic Activity Index (EAI), Oil sector, Prices,
Labor market, Poverty and inequity, and Confidence indexes.
II. EXTERNAL SECTOR
Quarterly balance of payments, Foreign trade and Other external sector indicators.
III. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL SECTOR
International Reserves (RILD), Financial system deposits and loan book, External
assets/deposits, Money supply, Evolution of lending interest rates, Credit supply and
demand, Domestic liquidity coefficient and Domestic investment.
IV. FISCAL
SECTOR
Non
Financial
Public Sector (NFPS) and Central Government (CG) operations and
Operations and financing of the Non Financial Public Sector and Central Goverment,
and Public debt.
V. RELATED PUBLICATIONS
REAL
SECTOR
In the third quarter of 2014, Ecuador maintained its economic growth trend with a positive result of 3.4% year-on-year
variation (Q/Q-4) and at 1.1% compared to the previous quarter (Q/Q-1), which placed GDP (at constant prices) at USD
17,542 million.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - GDP
2007 Constant prices, quarterly variation rates
3,0
12,0
10,0
2,5
Var Q/Q-1
6,0
1,5
4,0
Var. Q/Q-4
8,0
2,0
1,0
2,0
0,5
0,0
0,0
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ
IIQ
Q/Q-1
1,1
Q/Q-4
7,7
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ
IIQ
2,6
1,5
0,9
1,5
1,6
0,2
1
0,8
8,8
8,7
6,3
6,7
5,6
4,3
4,3
3,6
2011
IIIQ
IVQ
IQ
2,1
1,6
0,7
0,1
1,5
1,1
4,1
5,6
5,2
4,5
3,9
3,4
2012
2013
IIQ
IIIQ
-2,0
2014
5
Source: BCE.
LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES
Gross Domestic Product, constant prices, seasonal adjustment series
Year-on-year variation rates (Q/Q-4)
7,0
Year-on-year variation rate
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Uruguay
2013.IV
1,6
2,2
2,7
5,5
5,3
4,6
2014.I
0,4
1,8
2,1
6,5
4,5
3,0
2014.II
0,1
-0,8
2,1
4,3
3,9
3,8
2014.III
-0,7
-0,2
0,8
4,2
3,4
3,8
Sources: Statistical Institutes, Central Banks and BCE for Ecuador.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY EXPENDITURE
Quarterly variation rate Q/Q-1
0,0
%
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Imports
2,3
General Government Final Consumption
Expenditure
2,0
Households Final Consumption Expenditure
Exports
From the point of view of gross domestic
product by expenditure, in the third quarter of
2014, the components that demonstrated the
best performance were: Gross Fixed Capital
Formation, 2.5%; Imports, 2.3%; and
Government Final Consumption Expenditure,
2.0%
2,5
GFCF
G.D.P.
3,0
1,6
1,1
0,9
ABSOLUTE CONTRIBUTIONS TO QUARTERLY VARIATION
(Q/Q-1) OF GDP
At 2007 constant prices
The elements that contributed to GDP
quarterly growth in 2014.IIIQ were: Household
Final Consumption Expenditure, 0.97; Gross
Fixed Capital Formation, 0.68; General
Government Final Consumption Expenditure,
0.28; and Exports, 0.24. Imports contributed
(with a negative symbol) with 0.72 .
%
-0,4
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
Households Final Consumption Expenditure
0,97
Imports
0,72
GFCF
General Government Final Consumption…
Variation in supplies-0.31
1,4
1,13
G.D.P.
Exports
Source: BCE.
-0,2
0,68
0,28
0,24
7
In the third quarter of 2014, the variables that contributed most to year-on-year economic evolution (Q/Q-4) of GDP
(3.4%), were Household Final Consumption Expenditure, 2.68; Gross Fixed Capital Formation, 1.54; and Exports, 1.03.
Imports contributed (with a negative symbol) with 1.72.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY EXPENDITURE
Quarterly variation rates Q/Q-4
ABSOLUTE CONTRIBUTIONS TO QUARTERLY
VARIATION (Q/Q-4 ) OF GDP
At 2007 constant prices
0,0
%
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
%
-1,0
0,0
1,0
3,0
5,7
GFCF
5,6
Households Final
Consumption Expenditure
4,3
Households Final Consumption
Expenditure
2,68
Imports
1,72
GFCF
Exports
1,54
3,8
Exports
G.D.P.
4,0
3.4
G.D.P.
Imports
1,03
3.4
General Government Final
General Government Final
2,0
0,23
1,6
Variation in supplies -0,32
8
Source: BCE.
In the third quarter of 2014, the (Q/Q-1) GDP growth was 1.1% explained by the behavior of Oil Gross Value Added
(GVA), which registered a decrease of -1.7% and an increase of the Non-oil Gross Value Added of 1.4%.
OIL* AND NON-OIL GVA
2007 Constant prices, quarterly variation rates Q/Q-1
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
0,0
-2,0
-4,0
-6,0
2011.IQ
2011.IIQ 2011.IIIQ 2011.IVQ 2012.IQ
2012.IIQ 2012.IIIQ 2012.IVQ 2013.IQ
2013.IIQ 2013.IIIQ 2013.IVQ 2014.IQ
2014.IIQ 2014.IIIQ
Non oil GVA
1,7
3,0
1,9
1,5
1,4
1,1
0,7
1,6
0,9
1,6
1,4
0,8
0,2
1,5
1,4
Oil GVA
-0,1
-1,6
-1,8
-2,6
3,8
4,2
-4,5
-3,7
0,5
5,9
5,0
-0,2
0,0
0,3
-1,7
GDP
1,1
2,6
1,5
0,9
1,5
1,6
0,2
1,0
0,8
2,1
1,6
0,7
0,1
1,5
1,1
Source: BCE.
(*) Comprises the sum of the GVA of the oil extraction industries plus oil refining.
9
The (Q/Q-4) GDP growth was 3.4%; explained by the behavior of Oil Gross Value Added (GVA), which registered a
decrease of -1.6% and an increase of the Non Oil Gross Value Added of 4.0%.
OIL* AND NON OIL GVA
2007 Constant prices, quarterly variation rates Q/Q-4
13,0
8,0
3,0
-2,0
-7,0
2011.IQ
2011.IIQ
2011.IIIQ
2011.IVQ
2012.IQ
2012.IIQ
2012.IIIQ
2012.IVQ
2013.IQ
2013.IIQ
2013.IIIQ
2013.IVQ
2014.IQ
2014.IIQ
2014.IIIQ
Oil GVA
12,5
6,4
3,6
-6,1
-2,4
3,3
0,5
-0,5
-3,7
-2,1
7,7
11,6
11,0
5,0
-1,6
Non oil GVA
6,7
8,6
9,2
8,3
8,0
6,0
4,8
5,0
4,4
4,9
5,6
4,8
4,1
3,9
4,0
GDP
7,7
8,8
8,7
6,3
6,7
5,6
4,3
4,3
3,6
4,1
5,6
5,2
4,5
3,9
3,4
10
Source: BCE.
(*) Comprises the sum of the GVA of the oil extraction industries plus oil refining.
During the third quarter of 2014, the economic activities that presented the greatest contribution to the quarterly variation
(Q/Q-1) of 1.1% of GDP were: Construction, 0.27%; Professional Activities, 0.22%; and Wholesale and retail 0.22%., engine
vehicle and motorcycle repair , and personal and household goods.
CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH Q/Q-1
VARIATION RATES Q/Q-1 BY INDUSTRY
2,0
1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
2,7
2,1
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
Professional, technical and administrative …
0,22
0,22
0,16
Manufacturing (without oil refining)
0,09
Education and health services
0,09
1,2
2,3
Electricity, gas and water supply
0,5
0,3
0,5
5,0
0,4
0,5
3,1
0,05
Transport
0,04
Oil and mining
0,03
Other Services *
0,03
Fishing (except shrimp)
0,03
Post and communications
0,01
Financial Intermediation
0,01
Private households with employed persons
Aquaculture and shrimp fishing
0,3
0,27
Public administration and defense
0,8
0,01
-0,00
Hotels and Restaurants -0,02
-0,3
Source: BCE.
0,0
Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicles, …
2,8
-1,0
-0,1
Construction
3,4
-0,6
%
Agriculture -0,02
(*) Includes: Real estate and Entertainment activities, recreation and other service activities
11
In terms of year-on-year GDP variation (3.4%), the activities that contributed the most were: Construction, 0.90%;
Professional, technical and administrative activities, 0.58%; and Oil and mining, 0.57%.
VARIATION RATES Q/Q-4 BY INDUSTRY
-5,00
0,00
5,00
10,00
CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH Q/Q-4
15,00
20,00
%
0,4
0,2
9,1
0,57
0,45
0,35
Transport
9,3
2,4
0,21
Education and health services
0,21
0,19
Agriculture
1,7
1,4
3,3
15,6
4,7
Source: BCE. (*) Includes :
0,13
Other Services *
0,09
0,09
Aquaculture and shrimp farming
0,09
Hotels and Restaurants
0,05
Fishing (except shrimp)
0,03
Post and communications
0,01
Private households with employed persons
0,01
Public administration and defence
Real estate and Entertainment activities, recreation and other service activities
1,0
0,58
Manufacturing (without petroleum refining)
3,3
0,8
0,90
Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicles, …
3,0
2,6
0,6
Oil and mining
4,4
-0,2
0,4
Professional, technical and administrative…
5,6
3,4
0,2
Construction
9,1
0,3
0,0
-0,01
12
OIL PRODUCTION
National Crude Oil Production between January and December 2014 decreased by -29% compared to a
similar period in 2013. State Companies Petroamazaonas EP and Operadora Rio Napo recorded a -0.1%
decrease in production at the same time as Private Companies decreased their production by -11.7%
2011
National Crude Oil Production at Oilfields
Public Companies
EP PETROECUADOR (Oil Production)
Petroamazonas EP(B 15)
Operadora Río Napo (Sacha)
Private Companies (excl. B15)
182.4
130.5
55.3
57.2
18.1
51.8
Millions of Barrels
Growth Rate
January - December
January - December
2012
184.3
133.7
58.3
54.3
21.1
50.7
2013
2014
209.2
158.1
0.0
130.2
27.9
51.0
203.1
158.0
0.0
131.8
26.2
45.1
2012/ 2011
2013/ 2012
2014/ 2013
1.1%
2.4%
5.4%
-5.0%
16.8%
-2.3%
13.5%
18.3%
-100.0%
139.9%
32%
0.8%
-2.9%
-0.1%
0.0%
1.2%
-6.1%
-11.7%
Thousands of Barrels
January - December
Average Daily Crude Oil Production at Oilfields
Public Companies
EP PETROECUADOR (Oil Production)
Petroamazonas EP (B15)
Operadora Río Napo (Sacha)
Private Companies (excl. B15)
2011 2012
500
504
358
365
151
159
157
148
50
58
142
138
Source: EP PETROECUADOR
Note: EP Petroamazonas ceased to operate in the oil exploration and exploitation phases; these
activities went to Petroamazonas EP as per Executive Decree No. 1351-A, dated January 2, 2013.
2013
573
433
0
357
76
140
2014
556
433
0
361
72
124
13
DAILY PRODUCTION BY PRIVATE COMPANIES
Thousands of barrels, 2012-2014
Daily crude oil production of Public Companies in
December 2014 reached an average of 436.2
thousand barrels. From that total, 82.8%
corresponds to the production of Petroamazonas EP
and 17.2% to Operadora Río Napo. Petroecuador EP
did not register oil production as established in
Executive Decree No. 1351-A, of January 2, 2013.
Río Napo
Petroamazonas EP
2012
EP Petroecuador
500
2013
2014
361,3
158,7
400
For Private Companies, daily production of crude
oil in December 2014 was 124.9 thousand barrels
compared to the previous month.
300
200
100
74,9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
DAILY PRODUCTION BY EP PETROECUADOR, PETROAMAZONAS EP
AND OPERADORA RÍO NAPO
Thousands of barrels, 2012-2014
124,9
2012
2013
2014
14
OIL EXPORTS BY PUBLIC COMPANIES
(Millions of barrels)
Between 2008 and 2013, the change
in the participation modality with
regard to the provision of services
benefits oil exports of Public
Companies.
PUBLIC COMPANIES (Crudo Napo)
PRIVATE COMPANIES
SECRETARIAT OF HYDROCARBONS
90,0
82,7
80,0
70,0
60,0
The Secretariat of Hydrocarbons
exports the equivalent to the rate
paid in kind to Private Companies
for the oil exploitation service
under the modality of services
provision; 16.1 million barrels in
2013.
PUBLIC COMPANIES (Crudo Oriente)
50,0
54,3
49,9
41,5
40,0
30,0
23,2
20,0
16,1
10,0
0,0
2008
Oriente Crude Oil: approximately 24 degrees API on average - intermediate crude oil
Napo Crude Oil: between 18 and 21 degrees API - heavy and sour crude oil
2009
2010
(*) As of 2011, private companies stop exporting and the Secretariat of Hydrocarbons takes on this activity.
2011
2012
2013
15
OIL EXPORTS BY PUBLIC AND PRIVATE COMPANIES
millions of barrels
In December 2014, crude oil exports reached 13.3 million barrels, 1.8% more compared to the same month
in 2013. The Secretariat of Hydrocarbons exports the equivalent at the rate paid in kind to Private
Companies for the provision of oil exploitation services; in December 2014, this value was 1.6 million
barrels.
STATE OWNED CORPORATIONS (Oriente Crude Oil)
STATE OWNED CORPARATIONS (Napo Crude Oil)
SECRETARIAT OF HYDROCARBONS
10,0
9,0
millions of Barrels
8,0
7,0
6,0
6,1
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,0
1,0
2012
2013
2014
Oriente Crude Oil: 23 degrees API on average - intermediate crude oil
Napo Crude Oil: between 18 and 21 degrees API - heavy and sour crude oil
16
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dic
0,0
ORIENTE, NAPO AND WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES
USD per barrel
Between 2008 and early 2011, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was a clear indicator of the Oriente and Napo
crude oil trend. This situation was reversed as of April 2011 in the case of Oriente crude oil, and as of
September 2011 for Napo crude oil, which also began to be commercialized at higher levels than those of
WTI.
WTI
ORIENTE CRUDE OIL
NAPO CRUDE OIL
130
120
110
100
99.61
97,87
97,36
92,91
90
85,39
80
80,77
70
60
50
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
40
17
ORIENTE, NAPO AND WTI CRUDE OIL PRICES
USD/BARREL
In December of 2014, WTI reached an average value of 59.5 USD/barrel, reflecting a price decrease of 39.1% compared to the same month in 2013: In the same month and year, the prices of both Oriente and
Napo crude oil also registered a decrease of -48.3% and -52.7% respectively, compared to December 2013.
WTI
ORIENTE CRUDE OIL
NAPO CRUDE OIL
130
120
110
101,4
100,8
100
90
97,1
80
70
60
59,5
50
47,3
40
41,9
2012
2013
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
30
2014
18
SUPPLY OF BYPRODUCTS
millions of barrels
The national supply of byproducts, between 2008 and 2013, displayed an upward trend as a result of greater
byproduct imports due to an increase in domestic consumption. In the same period, byproduct production
also increased but to a lesser degree than imports.
NATIONAL BYPRODUCTS PRODUCTION
BYPRODUCTS IMPORTS
TOTAL SUPPLY OF BYPRODUCTS
140,0
120,0
100,0
118,3
95,4
80,0
67,6
69,7
60,0
48,6
40,0
31,5
20,0
-
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
19
SUPPLY OF
BYPRODUCTS
millions of barrels
The domestic supply of byproducts, as well as the import of byproducts during December 2014, displayed
an increase of 20.9% and 51.2% respectively compared to the same month in 2013. During the same
period, Domestic Byproduct Production decreased by -0.4%.
NATIONAL BYPRODUCTS PRODUCTION
BYPRODUCTS IMPORTS
TOTAL SUPPLY OF BYPRODUCTS
13,0
12,0
11,2
11,0
10,0
9,4
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
5,8
5,8
5,0
5,4
4,0
3,0
3,6
2,0
2012
2013
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
1,0
2014
20
BYPRODUCT DEMAND
millions of barrels
Domestic demand of byproducts displayed an upward trend between 2008 and 2013. In the same period,
consumption of byproducts behaved similarly. The byproducts with the greatest level of consumption were
diesel and gasoline.
GASOLINE
DIESEL
LPG
OTHER
TOTAL BYPRODUCTS DEMAND
100,0
90,4
90,0
80,0
70,0
69,3
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
31,9
23,4
16,9
17,5
11,4
24,9
21,3
12,2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
21
BYPRODUCTS DEMAND
millions of barrels
Domestic demand for byproducts, in December 2014, decreased in -2.2% compared to the same month in
2013. In the same period, demand for gasoline, diesel and other byproducts also decreased by -4.7%, -1.1%
and -4.4% respectively; while Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) increased by 4.7%.
GASOLINE
DIESEL
LPG
OTHER
TOTAL BYPRODUCTS DEMAND
9,0
8,0
7,0
6,0
6,7
5,0
4,0
2012
2013
2014
22
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Jan
0,0
1,5
1,0
Apr
1,0
Mar
2,0
2,3
1,9
Feb
3,0
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES OF INTERNAL SALE
OF IMPORTED BYPRODUCTS
January-December: 2011 - 2014
By December 2014, 50.8% of the difference between revenue and expenditure as a result of the internal sale of imported
byproducts corresponded to the sale of diesel, 35.4% to high-octane nafta, and 13.8% to LPG.
INTERNAL SALE OF IMPORTED BYPRODUCTS
DIFFERENCE REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES (thousands of dollars)
Total import costs (thousands of dollars)
Total revenue from internal sales (thousands of dollars)
High Octane Nafta
Difference Revenue and Cost (thousands of dollars)
Volume of imports (thousands of barrels)
Import price (dollars per barrel)
Import costs (thousands of dollars)
Internal sale price (dollars per barrel)
Revenue from internal sales (thousands of dollars)
Diesel
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
2011
2012
2013
2014
-2,949,875.5
4,407,922.2
1,458,046.7
-3,405,666.6
5,009,427.1
1,603,760.5
-3,666,375.3
5,510,848.9
1,844,473.6
-3,907,218.2
6,114,544.0
2,207,325.8
-976,257.6
12,610.9
131.9
1,663,100.0
54.5
686,842.4
-1,282,145.2
14,231.8
143.9
2,048,152.8
53.8
766,007.6
-1,261,622.7
16,006.1
131.7
2,107,666.4
52.9
846,043.7
-1,381,376.3
20,121.3
120.6
2,426,022.2
51.9
1,044,645.9
-1,337,453.5
15,089.3
130.8
1,974,074.9
42.2
636,621.4
-1,600,345.8
17,022.9
136.1
2,317,514.5
42.1
717,168.7
-1,882,299.1
20,841.0
131.7
2,745,680.1
41.4
863,381.0
-1,985,731.5
24,970.1
119.8
2,990,743.9
40.2
1,005,012.4
-636,164.4
9,734.8
79.2
770,747.3
13.8
134,582.9
-523,175.6
9,011.7
71.4
643,759.8
13.4
120,584.2
-522,453.4
9,565.3
68.7
657,502.4
14.1
135,048.9
-540,110.3
10,732.2
65.0
697,777.9
14.7
157,667.5
23
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES OF INTERNAL SALE OF IMPORTED BYPRODUCTS
January-December: 2012 - 2014
(millions of dollars)
IMPORT COSTS
REVENUE FROM INTERNAL SALES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REVENUE AND COSTS
650
473
450
216
250
222
80
50
-150
-135
-350
251
2012
2013
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Oct
Nov
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Apr
May
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
-550
2014
24
ANNUAL INFLATION RATE BY DECEMBER
(Percentages, 2006-2014)
10
8,83
8
6
4
2,87
3,32
2006
2007
5,41
4,31
4,16
3,33
2,70
3,67
2
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
INTERNATIONAL INFLATION RATE
(Percentages January 2015)
Venezuela
Argentina
Uruguay
Brazil
Bolivia
Chile
Costa Rica
Honduras
Colombia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Mexico
Peru
Guatemala
Dominican Republic
USA
El Salvador
10,95
8,02
7,14
5,94
4,50
4,39
3,83
3,82
3,53
3,40
3,07
3,07
2,32
1,58
0,76
-0,70
-1
* Information
.
9
19
56,19
In January 2015, from a sample of 17
countries*, mostly of Latin America,
Ecuador was below the average of the
group.
Average: 7.17
29
39
49
59
%
69
on the United States and Dominican Republic corresponds to December 2014; information on Argentina and Venezuela corresponds to December 2013.
Source: Central Banks and Statistical Institutes of the analyzed countries.
25
ANNUAL INFLATION RATE OF THE CPI AND BY CONSUMPTION DIVISION
5,0
4,0
The annual inflation rate in January 2015 was 3.53%,
this percentage was higher than that of the same
month in 2014 (2.92%). By consumption division, 6
groups were above the general average, the greatest
percentages being those of Diverse Goods and Services;
Accommodation
and
Education;
conversely,
Communications displayed deflation (image below).
3.67
3,53
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Annual 2014
Annual 2015
VARIOUS GOODS AND SERVICES
ACCOMODATION, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS SUPPLY AND OTHERS
EDUCATION
HEALTH
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS
TRANSPORT
GENERAL
HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS
FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD ARTICLES AND CONSERVATION
RECREATION AND CULTURE
CLOTHING AND SHOES
COMMUNICATIONS -0,42
Source: INEC.
-1,0
6,24
5,59
5,39
4,10
4,08
3,67
3,53
3,48
3,19
2,80
1,49
1,04
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
26
MONTHLY INFLATION RATE OF THE CPI AND BY CONSUMPTION DIVISION
0,8
0,6
In January 2015, the monthly rate of inflation
was 0.59%; this percentage was lower than that
of the same month of the previous year
(0.72%); by consumption division, those highest
above the general average were Transport;
Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics; Furniture and
household items, and Hotels and Restaurants; while 2
divisions showed deflationary behavior (image
below).
0,59
0,4
0,2
0.11
0,0
-0,2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Monthly 2014
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly 2015
TRANSPORT
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO AND NARCOTICS
FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD ARTICLES AND CONSERVATION
HOTELS AND RESTAURANTS
GENERAL
HEALTH
FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
ACCOMODATION, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS SUPPLY AND OTHERS
VARIOUS GOODS AND SERVICES
RECREATION AND CULTURE
EDUCATION
COMMUNICATIONS
CLOTHING AND SHOES
1,55
1,48
1,47
0,85
0,59
0,50
0,44
0,43
0,40
0,35
0,15
-0,15
-0,41
-0,5
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC).
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
27
ANNUAL NATIONAL PPI VARIATION BY DECEMBER
Percentages, 2006-2014
12
As of 2007, the domestic producer price
index (PPI) showed a downward trend. 2007
and 2008 were the years with most variation.
The general behavior of inflation depends on
certain products from the Food, Beverage,
Tobacco and Textile sections, and from the
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing section, which
jointly contribute 50% to the PPI basket.
10,12
10
8,28
8
6,67
6
4
3,10
2,76
3,17
2,12
2,14
1,42
2
0
2006
Source: INEC.
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
28
MONTHLY VARIATION OF NATIONAL PPI
(Percentages)
4,0
3,0
In January 2015, the annual PPI variation was
3.93%. From this result, Minerals displayed the
greatest variation (10.01%), followed by
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9.79%).
2,0
1,0
ANNUAL VARIATION OF NATIONAL PPI
(Percentages)
0,32
0,0
9,0
-1,0
8,0
8.35
7,0
-2,0
6,0
5,0
Monthly 2014
Monthly 2015
In January 2015, monthly PPI variation was 0.32,
which reversed the negative behavior of the
previous month. Those sections that displayed most
inflation were Minerals (3.46%), followed by
Agriculture, forestry and fishing, and the Food products
section.
4,0
3,93
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Annual 2015
Annual 2014
Source: INEC.
29
ANNUAL INFLATION RATE:
INTERNATIONAL, ECUADOR AND THE
UNITED STATES
Percentages
In December 2014, annual inflation rate of Ecuadorian tradable goods was greater than the international* and the
United States inflation rates.
7
6
5
4
3,42
3
2
2,12
1
Tradable Ecuador
International
0,76
U.S.A
Dec-14
Oct.-14
Aug-14
Jun.-14
Apr-14
Feb.-14
Dec-13
Oct.-13
Aug-13
Jun.-13
Apr-13
Feb.-13
Dec-12
Oct.-12
Aug-12
Jun.-12
Apr-12
Feb.-12
Dec-11
Oct.-11
Aug-11
Jun.-11
Apr-11
Feb.-11
Dec-10
0
Source: Central Banks and Statistical Institutes of the analyzed countries.
*The information is presented with a one month delay, in other words, it corresponds to November 2014; even with this clarification, there are several countries on which there is
30
no updated information.
EAP DISTRIBUTION
Percentages, Dec. 2008 – Dec. 2014
In December 2014, the full employment rate represented 51.4%, the underemployment rate was 43.8%, the unemployment rate was
4.5%, and lastly, the smallest percentage corresponded to non-classified employment (0.3%) of urban EAP.
100
90
80
43,6
38,8
45,6
49,9
52,1
51,5
51,4
70
60
Full Employed
50
40
Underemployed
50,5
30
48,8
47,1
44,2
39,8
43,3
43,8
20
10
7,3
0
0,3
Dec-08
7,9
2,8
Dec-09
6,1
1,2
Dec-10
5,1
0,8
Dec-11
5,0
3,1
Dec-12
Unemployed
Non classified employed
4,9
0,3
Dec-13
4,5
0,3
Dec-14
Source: ENEMDU
Note: non-classified employed are defined as those persons that cannot be categorized as fully employed or as other forms of underemployment due to a lack of data with
regard to attendance and hours worked.
31
SUMMARY
OF URBAN LABOR MARKET INDICATORS
Percentages, Dec. 2010 – Dec. 2014
CLASSIFICATION OF THE POPULATION
Working Age Population (WAP)
Labor Force
Employed
Non classified employment
Fully Employed
Undermeployed
Visible
Other forms
Unemployed
Jobless
New Workers
Open Unemployment
Hidden Unemployment
Labor Force
2010
Dec.
84.0%
54.6%
93.9%
1.2%
45.6%
47.1%
9.5%
37.7%
6.1%
4.2%
1.9%
4.5%
1.6%
45.4%
2011
Mar.
84.5%
55.5%
93.0%
1.8%
41.2%
50.0%
10.5%
39.5%
7.0%
5.2%
1.8%
5.7%
1.3%
44.5%
2011
Jun.
84.6%
54.6%
93.6%
1.3%
45.6%
46.7%
8.5%
38.3%
6.4%
4.4%
1.9%
5.1%
1.2%
45.4%
2011
Sep.
83.5%
55.2%
94.5%
0.9%
47.9%
45.7%
8.6%
37.1%
5.5%
4.7%
0.8%
4.8%
0.7%
44.8%
2011
Dec.
83.7%
55.4%
94.9%
0.8%
49.9%
44.2%
7.6%
36.7%
5.1%
3.3%
1.8%
3.9%
1.2%
44.6%
2012
Mar.
83.9%
57.2%
95.1%
1.3%
49.9%
43.9%
8.8%
35.1%
4.9%
4.0%
0.9%
4.2%
0.6%
42.8%
2012
Jun.
83.9%
56.6%
94.8%
2.0%
49.9%
43.0%
7.3%
35.7%
5.2%
3.8%
1.4%
4.3%
0.8%
43.4%
2012
Sep.
84.3%
55.1%
95.4%
2.0%
51.1%
42.3%
8.0%
34.3%
4.6%
3.5%
1.1%
4.1%
0.5%
44.9%
2012
Dec.
84.9%
54.7%
95.0%
3.1%
52.1%
39.8%
6.1%
33.8%
5.0%
3.1%
1.9%
4.0%
1.0%
45.3%
2013
Mar.
84.7%
54.9%
95.4%
1.9%
48.4%
45.0%
8.3%
36.7%
4.6%
3.5%
1.2%
4.2%
0.5%
45.1%
2013
Jun.
84.7%
55.6%
95.1%
1.9%
46.7%
46.4%
9.4%
37.0%
4.9%
3.4%
1.5%
4.1%
0.8%
44.4%
2013
Sep.
83.2%
55.2%
95.4%
2.2%
50.4%
42.9%
7.1%
35.8%
4.6%
3.7%
0.8%
4.0%
0.6%
44.8%
2013
Dec.
82.4%
53.5%
95.1%
0.3%
51.5%
43.3%
8.1%
35.3%
4.9%
3.0%
1.8%
3.7%
1.2%
46.5%
2014
Mar.
82.2%
54.0%
94.4%
0.4%
49.7%
44.4%
8.5%
35.9%
5.6%
4.1%
1.5%
4.7%
0.9%
46.0%
2014
Jun.
81.3%
54.6%
94.3%
0.3%
52.7%
41.3%
8.1%
33.1%
5.7%
3.7%
2.0%
4.7%
1.0%
45.4%
2014
Sep.
81.6%
54.9%
95.3%
0.4%
53.9%
41.1%
8.3%
32.8%
4.7%
3.4%
1.2%
3.9%
0.7%
45.1%
Source: ENEMDU
Note: The calculation of WAP and those younger than 10 years of age is performed with respect to the Total Population, EAP and EIP with regard to WAP, while the calculation
of the other indicators is performed with respect to EAP.
32
2014
Dec.
70.5%
63.0%
95.5%
0.3%
51.4%
43.8%
9.4%
34.4%
4.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3.7%
0.8%
37.0%
STRUCTURE OF URBAN EAP EMPLOYMENT
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
JOB CATEGORY
(Percentages)
(Percentages, Dec. 2013 – Dec. 2014)
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Dec 2013
Dec 2014
Urban area
Public administration, defence, and
compulsory social security
4.9
5.4
Transport
6.8
7.1
Construction
8.1
7.6
Education
6.6
5.7
Hotel and Restaurants
6.8
6.8
Agriculture, cattle, farming, hunting, forestry
and fishing
61,1
Salaried
employees
Own Account
7.1
8.2
Manufacturing industries
Wholesale and retail, engine and motorcycle
repair and personal and household goods
Exploitation of mines and quarries
13.3
12.5
23.4
24.3
0.7
0.8
0.4
0.4
1.5
1.3
Private households with Employed Persons
3.6
3.8
Other services
16.8
Total Employed
100.0
Source: ENEMDU
62,1
Non paid work
Employer
29,4
30,3
16.1
4,9
3,7
5
3,6
100.0
Dec-13
Dec-14
33
URBAN POVERTY
Dec 2007 – Dec. 2014
In December 2014, the poverty rate among the urban population was 16.4%; while the rate observed at the end of 2013
was 17.6%, that is, urban poverty decreased by 1.2 percentage points.
28
26
24
25,0
22,5
24,3
22
22,6
20
17,4
18
16,4
17,6
16
16,1
14
12
Dec 14
Dec 13
Dec 12
Dec 11
Dec 10
Dec 09
Dec 08
Dec 07
10
Source: ENEMDU
Note: In order to obtain the incidence of poverty with regard to income, total per capita income is compared to the poverty line by consumption, in such a manner that individuals
with a total per capita income below the poverty line by consumption, are considered poor.
34
The Gini coefficient is an inequality
indicator that measures the manner in
which a variable is distributed among
a series of individuals; the closer it is
to zero, the more equitable the
variable distribution.
URBAN GINI COEFFICIENT
(Dec. 2007 – Dec. 2008)
0,540
0,522
0,520
With regard to economic inequality,
the measurement is related to the
income or expenditure of households
or individuals.
0,500
0,487
0,480
0,483
0,482
0,471
0,460
0,458
0,445
0,440
0,441
Source: ENEMDU
Dec.14
Dec 13
Dec 12
Dec 11
Dec 10
Dec 09
Dec 08
Dec 07
0,420
The BCE has calculated the Gini
coefficient using income per capita,
which is obtained from the National
Employment, Unemployment and
Underemployment
Survey
(ENEMDU in Spanish). In December
2014, the Gini coefficient was at
0.458, while in December 2013, it was
at 0.471; thus, economic inequality
decreased over the last year.
35
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY INDEX
2008- 2014
The Economic Activity Index, EAI, is based on 12 indicators that represent 70% of total real production in the country.
This index shows a sustained upward trend during 2011 and 2012. In 2013, the growth rate slowed; accelerating once again
during the second half of 2014, reaching a value of 524.4 in the month of November.
570
550
530
524,4
510
490
470
450
430
410
390
370
369,6
350
330
310
290
270
256,4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
250
2008
2009
2010
UNADJUSTED SERIES
Source: Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE)
2011
2012
TREND ADJUSTED CYCLE
2013
2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
2008-2014
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) was at 45.2 points in December 2014. In December 2013 it was 49.0
points.
50,0
45,0
45,2
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
2008
Source: Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE).
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
37
BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX CYCLE AND ANNUAL
GDP GROWTH RATE
2007 - 2014
In December 2014, the Business Confidence Index Cycle (BCI) was 0.7% above short term average growth.
The image below also shows the relationship of this index with the annual quarterly GDP growth rate, which
was 3.4% during the third quarter of 2014.
13%
30%
27%
11%
Annual GDP Growth Rate
21%
9%
18%
15%
7%
12%
9%
5%
3.4%
6%
3%
3%
0,7%
0%
-3%
1%
-6%
-9%
-1%
-12%
-15%
Jun.-07
Aug.-07
Oct.-07
Dec.-07
Feb.-08
Apr.-08
Jun.-08
Aug.-08
Oct.-08
Dec.-08
Feb.-09
Apr.-09
Jun.-09
Aug.-09
Oct.-09
Dec.-09
Feb.-10
Apr.-10
Jun.-10
Aug.-10
Oct.-10
Dec.-10
Feb.-11
Apr.-11
Jun.-11
Aug.-11
Oct.-11
Dec.-11
Feb.-12
Apr.-12
Jun.-12
Aug.-12
Oct.-12
Dec.-12
Feb.-13
Apr.-13
Jun.-13
Aug.-13
Oct.-13
Dec.-13
Feb.-14
Apr.-14
Jun.-14
Aug.-14
Oct.-14
Dec.-14
-3%
Annual GDP growth rate q/q-4 (left axis)
Source: Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE)
Business Confidence Index Cycle (right axis)
Business Confidence Index Cycle
24%
EXTERNAL
SECTOR
CURRENT ACCOUNT AND ITS COMPONENTS, 2007-2013
By late 2013 the Current Account presented a deficit of USD -983.8 million, because of the negative result of the Goods and
Services and Income Balances. The Balance of Goods registered a deficit of USD -492.5 million, due to greater imports (USD 26,178.2 million) than exports (USD 25,685.7 million). The negative result of the Services and Income Balances increased by
USD -196.3 million.
4.000
3.500
3.335,4
3.082,6
2.735,5
3.000
2.672,4
2.591,5
2.500
2.000
Millions of USD
1.500
2.466,9
2.449,5
1.886,5
1.823,0
1.000
500
0
-492,5
-500
-1.000
-968,9
-1.500
-2.000
-2.500
-2.555,8
-3.000
-3.500
-2.563,2
-3.002,9
-3.339,6
2007
2008
Remittances Received
2009
Services and Income
2010
-2.696,8
-2.822,2
2011
Current Account
2012
-2.875,2
2013
Balance of Goods *
*The Balance of Goods includes the Trade Balance, non registered trade, the replacement of goods and goods acquired at port.
Source: BCE.
40
CURRENT ACCOUNT AND ITS COMPONENTS, 2008.IQ-2014.IIIQ
In the third quarter of 2014, the Current Account showed a deficit of USD -78.9 million. The Balance of Goods registered a
positive result of USD 6.1 million, where exports (USD 6,742.3 million) were greater than imports (USD 6,736.3 million).
The deficit of the Services and Income Balances decreased by USD 64.4 million.
2.000,0
1.500,0
1.319,6
1.000,0
1.138,2
820,5
633,5
623,8
500,0
Millions of USD
6,1
0,0
-78,9
-500,0
-1.000,0
-606,1
-670,5
-715,4
-1.500,0
IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ
2008
2009
2010
2011
Services and Income
2012
Current Account
*The Balance of Goods includes the Trade Balance, non registered trade, the replacement of goods and goods acquired at port.
Source: BCE.
2013
2014
Balance of Goods *
41
BEHAVIOR OF RECEIVED WORKER REMITTANCES
2006-2013
Worker remittances received during 2013 reached USD 2,449.5 million, 0.7% less than in 2012 (USD 2,466.9 million).
Since 2008, when the economic crisis began, mainly in Spain and the United States, the decrease in the inflow of
remittances had been constant. From 2008 until 2013, remittances decreased by USD 633.1 million.
3.500
40%
3.335,4
3.082,6
30%
2.735,5
2.591,5
2.672,4
2.466,9
Millions of USD
2.500
2.449,5
20%
19,3%
2.000
10%
-0,7%
1.500
0%
Source: BCE.
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-20%
2008
500
2007
-10%
2006
1.000
Annual Variability %
3.000
2.927,6
Annual variation (Q/Q-1)
42
BEHAVIOR OF RECEIVED WORKER REMITTANCES,
2008.IQ-2014.IIIQ
Worker remittances during the third quarter of 2014 amounted to USD 623.8 million, -1.5% less than the previous quarter
(USD 633.5 million) and -2.3% less than the value registered during the third quarter of 2013 (USD 638.8 million). The
amount of remittances received, up to the third quarter of 2014, was less in comparison to previous years, despite the
improved performance of the economies of Spain and the United States.
900,0
20,0%
15,0%
774,5
800,0
10,0%
12,2%
680,8
Millions of USD
700,0
5,0%
670,7
638,8
0,0%
633,5
-2,3%
609,9
600,0
623,8 -5,0%
-10,0%
500,0
-15,0%
% of annual variation
717,8
-20,0%
400,0
-25,0%
2008
Source: BCE.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
-30,0%
IQ
300,0
2014
43
REMITTANCES RECEIVED BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2007-2013
During 2013, worker remittances from the United States, Spain and Italy represented 48.0%, 32.2% and 7.1% respectively,
while the remaining 12.7% corresponded to the rest of the world; mainly Mexico, Venezuela, United Kingdom, Chile,
Germany, Colombia.
4.000
3.500
3.000
139
158
191
200
2.500
233
1.346
229
283
198
201
179
174
820
789
998
1.008
1.167
1.181
1.170
1.177
2013
1.169
311
2012
1.214
2.000
298
2011
Millions of USD
236
1.500
1.000
1.691
1.441
1.134
500
Source: BCE.
United States
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
Spain
Italy
Rest of the World
44
REMITTANCES RECEIVED BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2008.IQ-2014.IIIQ
In the third quarter of 2014, worker remittances from the United States, Spain and Italy represented 52.0%, 30.0% and
6.0% respectively, while the remaining 12.0% corresponded to the rest of the world; mainly Mexico, United Kingdom,
Chile, Peru, Germany, France, Belgium. The United States’ share with regard to remittances rose from 46% to 52% in
2014.
900
800
48
67
700
50
44
62
52
49
55
600
MilliOns of USD
51
50
45
343
500
315
66
55
62
55
56
50
280
56
52
49
52
67
54
40
78
59
75
40
50
60
72
50
67
46
275
400
277 325
327
233
241
211 281 273
275
272
80
71
79
41
42
48
76
65
42
84
43
84
46
77
77
70
41
39
46
42
241 220
206
194
196 203 206
204 211
184
189 188
200
300
200
362 353
398
328
100
327 327
316 293
282 265 305 304 306 277 310 290 281 256 303 309 306 274
273 290 276 294 277
2008
Source: BCE.
2009
2010
United States
2011
Spain
2012
Italy
Other
2013
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
IVQ
IIIQ
IIQ
IQ
0
2014
45
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT , 2007-2013
Foreign Direct Investment as of 2010 showed an upward trend. FDI for 2013 was USD 728.3 million; this amount was
greater by USD 143.4 million than that registered in 2012 (USD 584.9 million). The greatest part of FDI during 2013 was
allocated to the Exploitation of Mines and Quarries and the Manufacturing Industry.
1.200
1.057,8
1.000
Millions of USD
800
728,3
584,9
600
643,8
400
307,8
200
193,9
165,5
0
2007
Source: BCE.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
46
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, 2008.IQ – 2014.IIIQ
In the third quarter of 2014, the net balance of FDI was USD 135.5 million, that is, USD 28.0 million less than the
previous quarter (USD 163.5 million) and USD 19.2 million more than the third quarter of 2013 (USD 116.3 million).
The economic activity with the greatest inflow of investment were: Trade and Exploitation of Mines and Quarries.
500,0
425,1
400,0
Millions of USD
300,0
200,0
163,5
100,0
135,5
116,3
0,0
-30,9
-100,0
-200,0
-175,1
-300,0
IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ IVQ IQ IIQ IIIQ
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Foreign Direct Investment
Note: A negative value with regard to FDI arises when as part of net capital movements the repayments are greater than the disbursements.
Source: BCE.
47
FDI BY INVESTMENT MODALITY, 2007-2013
During the 2007-2013 period, the flow of Foreign Direct Investment was USD 3,682.2 million, broken down as follows:
USD 1,825.1 million of fresh capital, USD 2,116.8 million of reinvested profits, and USD -259.6 million of negative
capital movement (disbursements minus repayments) of companies related to their affiliates.
600,0
500,0
400,0
Millions of USD
300,0
200,0
100,0
(100,0)
(200,0)
(300,0)
(400,0)
(500,0)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Shares and other equity
150,6
229,5
277,7
264,8
251,7
227,0
423,8
Reinvested profits
411,5
297,8
256,0
212,9
328,0
300,6
310,0
(367,9)
530,4
(225,9)
(312,3)
64,1
57,3
(5,5)
Other capital
Source: BCE.
48
FDI BY INVESTMENT MODALITY,
2008.IQ-2014.IIIQ
In the third quarter of 2014, the flow of FDI was USD 135.5 million, of which USD 102.9 corresponded to fresh
capital, USD 51.0 million to reinvested profits, and USD -18.4 million to net capital movements (disbursements minus
repayments) of companies related to their affiliates.
400,0
300,0
Millions of USD
200,0
100,0
(100,0)
(200,0)
(300,0)
(400,0)
IQ
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2008
Source: BCE.
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2009
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2010
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2011
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2012
IIQ IIIQ IVQ
IQ
2013
IIQ IIIQ
2014
Shares and other equity 54
36
73
66
77
81
83
37
38
81
70
75
40
108
28
60
24
60
83
43
182
91
108
Reinvested profits
71
57
94
75
87
60
47
62
63
35
50
65
77
63
62 126 83
53
61 104
83
55
53
119 100 56
Other capital
300
16
142
73
-17
62
-10 -261 -277 96
-7
44
-28 -15 -52 -27 -18
40 -171 77
-11 -25
76
23
-33 104 -35
21
84
135 103
51
49
FDI BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2007-2013
In 2007-2013, Mexico became the country with the greatest FDI (USD 1,416.1 million), followed by: Canada (USD 615.8
million), Panama (USD 510.9 million), China (USD 493.0 million), Spain (USD 482.2 million), Italy (USD 152.1 million),
Venezuela (USD 119.1 million) and Uruguay (USD 116.3 million).
1.000
800
Millions of USD
600
400
200
-
(200)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Mexico
(40,2)
312,6
621,0
278,5
70,1
83,1
91,0
Panama
76,5
66,8
116,6
138,9
32,6
25,6
53,9
China
84,8
46,5
56,3
45,0
80,1
85,9
94,3
Spain
85,2
189,8
50,8
(16,7)
52,3
49,8
71,0
Canada
48,5
58,2
64,7
104,6
252,2
59,1
28,4
Italy
10,8
16,8
0,8
10,4
25,1
27,4
60,7
Uruguay
2,3
(37,4)
(13,2)
40,1
2,7
6,5
115,2
Venezuela
15,8
19,6
8,0
13,6
24,1
17,9
20,1
Source: BCE.
50
FDI BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2014.IIIQ
Millions of USD
During the third quarter of 2014, Uruguay became the country with the greatest FDI (USD 53.2 million), followed by:
China (USD 18.9 million), Spain (USD 14.5 million), Chile (USD 12.3 million), Colombia (USD 7.9 million), Italy (USD
6.2 million), United States (USD 5.5 million), Venezuela (USD 4.8 million) and Panama (USD 4.1 million).
Uruguay
53,2
Countries with greater FDI
China
18,9
Spain
14,5
Chile
12,3
Colombia
7,9
Italy
6,2
5,5
U SA
4,8
Venezuela
4,1
Panama
Source: BCE.
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
51
FDI BY COUNTRY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2013
During 2013, the bulk of foreign direct investment carried out by China, Spain and the Netherlands in Ecuador was
allocated to the Exploitation of Mines and Quarries. FDI from Italy, Panama and the United States was directed towards
Services Rendered to Companies while FDI from Uruguay was allocated to Construction, and that of Mexico was directed towards
Transport, Storage and Communication.
120,0
Millions of USD
100,0
80,0
60,0
40,0
20,0
(20,0)
(40,0)
(60,0)
(80,0)
(100,0)
Uruguay
Mexico
China
Spain
Italy
Panama
The
Netherlands
United
States
-
-
0,0
7,7
0,2
(0,4)
0,2
2,1
Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicles, motorcylces, and
personal and household goods
3,1
1,8
0,4
2,2
0,1
6,0
0,3
51,6
Construction
65,0
0,0
-
0,1
0,0
0,3
-
0,0
Agriculture, forestry, hunting and fishing
-
-
-
21,6
0,3
0,2
0,5
5,4
0,1
-
93,8
29,3
24,5
-
46,7
0,0
Manufacturing Industry
38,0
19,1
0,1
2,3
0,2
15,4
0,6
4,8
Community, social and personal services
-
-
-
(0,0)
0,0
0,2
-
0,0
Services rendered to companies
7,5
0,1
0,2
5,2
35,4
31,6
0,0
49,6
Transport, storage and communication
1,5
70,0
-
2,6
0,0
0,6
-
(71,8)
Source: BCE.
52
FDI BY COUNTRY AND ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY, 2014.IIIQ
Millions of USD
During the third quarter of 2014, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia allocated the greater part of their FDI in Ecuador to
Wholesale and retail engine, motorcycle and vehicle repair, and personal and household goods (USD 68.5 million), China, Spain, Italy and
Venezuela directed their FDI towards the Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (USD 48.1 million) and the United States to the
Manufacturing Industry (USD 5.2 million).
56,0
52,0
48,0
44,0
40,0
36,0
32,0
28,0
24,0
20,0
16,0
12,0
8,0
4,0
(4,0)
(8,0)
Uruguay
China
Spain
Chile
Colombia
Italy
U SA
-
0,0
-
-
0,0
0,1
(0,0)
53,2
0,1
(3,2)
6,7
8,6
0,0
0,0
Construction
-
-
-
(0,2)
-
-
-
-
-
(2,3)
-
-
0,0
-
-
18,8
19,2
2,8
0,9
6,1
0,0
-
-
(0,4)
0,2
(2,3)
0,0
5,2
-
-
(0,1)
3,0
-
-
0,0
-
0,0
1,0
(0,1)
0,5
-
0,2
-
-
0,3
-
0,2
-
0,0
Source: BCE.
53
FDI BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, 2007-2013
The greatest flows of FDI between 2007 and 2013 where channeled into the Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (USD
1,182.2 million), the Manufacturing Industry (USD 930.5 million), Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and
personal and household goods (USD 658.0 million), Services rendered to companies (USD 473.5 million) and Construction (USD 232.8
million).
500
400
Millions of USD
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
25,5
20,4
52,3
10,6
0,4
17,8
25,5
Wholesale and retail repair of motor vehicles,
motorcylces, and personal and household goods
92,2
119,9
84,1
93,6
77,7
83,2
107,1
Construction
19,6
49,4
-13,9
27,8
50,1
31,1
68,7
11,9
-6,8
3,0
-5,9
-10,6
46,9
29,2
-102,8
244,1
5,8
178,0
379,2
224,9
252,9
99,0
198,0
117,7
120,3
121,9
135,6
137,9
16,7
13,2
18,1
22,6
27,8
1,7
-2,3
84,6
142,3
-23,6
68,0
44,7
39,5
118,1
-52,5
277,3
64,2
-349,6
-47,4
4,2
-8,8
Source: BCE.
54
FDI BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY,
2010.IQ-2014.IIIQ
The greatest flows of FDI during the third quarter of 2014 were mainly channeled into Wholesale and retail, engine, vehicle
and motorcycle repair, and household goods (USD 67.6 million), Exploitation of Mines and Quarries (USD 48.8 million), the
Manufacturing Industry (USD 10.1 million) and Community, Social and Personal Services (USD 9.4 million).
200,0
100,0
Millions of USD
0,0
-100,0
-200,0
-300,0
-400,0
IQ
10
IIQ
10
IIIQ IVQ
10 10
7,9 (1,6) 4,2
0,0
IQ
11
IIQ
11
IIIQ IVQ
11 11
1,7
0,1
0,2 (1,6) 12,2 1,8
16,7 34,1 22,6 20,1 26,6 2,4
IQ
12
IIQ
12
IIIQ
IQ
IV 12
12
13
IIQ
13
3,9 (0,1) 11,0 5,8
IIIQ IVQ
13 13
IQ
14
IIQ
14
IIIQ
14
2,5
3,6
3,2
4,5
6,2
9,9 38,8 26,3 15,0 7,1 34,8 21,5 7,7 12,2 65,7 5,0 16,8 67,6
Construction
5,7 10,1 8,0
0,9 (1,1) 1,1 (7,0) (2,5) (0,0) (4,8) (3,3) (0,2) (0,1) 0,1 47,0 15,8 3,4
48,4 45,9 41,0 42,8 78,0 174,8 52,8 73,7 66,6 60,2 41,9 56,2 51,5 49,7 92,6 59,0 81,2 92,7 48,8
18,8 (5,4) 44,9 62,0 57,2 2,8
0,7 61,3 41,9 6,8 22,2 64,7 22,8 50,9 8,2 56,1 34,6 21,4 10,1
1,8
7,8
Source: BCE.
5,9
8,0
4,0 15,2 10,9 2,9 21,0 4,2 23,3 0,5
7,0
8,6
7,0
4,4
1,8
3,1
0,0 64,8 0,1
0,7
3,8
0,3 (0,3) (0,0)
9,3
3,1 (2,5) (2,3)
2,2 (1,0) (1,3) (0,8) (1,4) 1,1 (1,2) 2,5 (0,6) 9,4
5,4 59,3 5,2 (1,9) 9,6 (3,3) 3,8 34,7 1,6 18,9 14,9 4,1 10,7 99,7 (0,6) 8,3
4,6 27,2 (5,3)
(280,8 64,7 24,6 (158,0 (0,9) (34,9) (8,1) (3,5) (44,7) 53,0 (3,5) (0,6) (14,1) 0,9 (0,5) 4,9 (1,8) 5,6
55
2,7
BALANCE OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE EXTERNAL
DEBT, 2007-2014
By the end of 2014, the balance of public external debt was USD 17,582.7 million, with a growth rate for 2014 of 36.1%,
while the balance of private external debt was USD 6,512.0 million, with a growth rate of 10.8%.
14.000,0
20%
12.000,0
Millions of USD
8.000,0
0%
6.000,0
-10%
4.000,0
-20%
2.000,0
-
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Public Debt
10.633,4
10.089,9
7.392,7
8.672,6
10.055,3
10.871,8
12.920,2
17.582,7
Private Debt
6.845,4
6.883,6
6.155,8
5.313,1
5.272,1
5.161,0
5.877,7
6.512,0
Public Debt variation %
4,1%
-5,1%
-26,7%
17,3%
15,9%
8,1%
18,8%
36,1%
Private Debt variation %
-0,6%
0,6%
-10,6%
-13,7%
-0,8%
-2,1%
13,9%
10,8%
Source: BCE.
-30%
56
Annual variation %
10%
10.000,0
BALANCE OF PUBLIC AND PRIVATE
EXTERNAL DEBT, 2009-2014
By late December 2014, the balance of public external debt was USD 17,582.7 million, and that of private external debt
was USD 6,512.0 million. During this month, the variation rate of the public external debt was positive at 4.0%, and that
of private external debt was negative at -1.6%.
18.500
17.582,7
17%
15,0%
14.500
6,5%
4,0%
Millions of USD
3,0%
7%
12.500
-1,6%
10.500
-3%
-6,4%
9.994,5
-13%
8.500
6.904,9
-23%
6.500
6.512,0
2009
Public Debt
Source: BCE.
2010
Private Debt
2011
2012
Public Debt variation rate
2013
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
May
Mar
Jan
Jul
-30,7%
4.500
-33%
2014
Private Debt variation rate
57
variation rate
16.500
27%
NET FLOW OF PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT, 2007-2014
As regards the flow of public external debt, in 2014, disbursements for USD 6,412.7 million were received, and
repayments in the amount of USD -1.713.5 million were paid. The net flow was USD 4,699.2 million. During 2014,
disbursements by the Government of China, in the amount of USD 1,013.8 million were received. Bonds in the amount
of USD 2,000.0 million were placed in the international market, and Petroecuador received a loan of USD 1.0 billion.
6.000
Millions of USD
4.000
2.000
0
-2.000
-4.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Disbursements
1.356,7
355,3
862,4
1.874,3
2.434,7
1.970,2
3.271,7
6.412,7
Repayments
-1053,8
-984,0
-3.527,4
-626,5
-1.090,2
-1.168,9
-1.234,9
-1.713,5
302,9
-628,7
-2.665,0
1.247,8
1.344,6
801,3
2.036,8
4.699,2
Net Flow
Source: BCE.
58
NET FLOW OF PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT, 2009-2014
In December of 2014, the net flow of public external debt was positive by USD 680.0 million. The country received
disbursements for USD 864.9 million and repaid USD -184.9 million. The balance of public external debt by the end of
2014 was of USD 17,582.7 million (17.4% of GDP).
2.500
Net Flow
Disbursements
Repayments
2.000
Millions of USD
1.500
1.415,8
1.492,1
1.000
864,9
500
680,0
0,2
248,1
0
-31,9
-184,9
-500
-1.000
-1.500
-2.000
-2.500
2009
Source: BCE.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
-2.988,0
Jan
-3.000
59
NET FLOW OF PRIVATE EXTERNAL DEBT, 2007-2014
In 2014, with regard to private external debt, the country received disbursements in the amount of USD 5,789.4 million
and repaid USD -5,141.3 million. That year, the net flow of private external debt was positive by USD 648.1 million.
15.000
1.000
800
10.000
600
400
Millions of USD
5.000
200
0
0
-200
-5.000
-400
-600
-10.000
-800
-15.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Disbursements
10.809,8
8.383,1
7.286,4
5.968,6
6.633,6
5.672,2
6.110,6
5.789,4
Repayments
-10.767,1
-8.346,8
-7.943,0
-6.812,6
-6.314,3
-5.772,1
-5.396,2
-5.141,3
42,7
36,4
-656,5
-844,1
319,3
-100,0
714,5
648,1
Net Flow
Source: BCE.
-1.000
60
NET FLOW OF PRIVATE EXTERNAL DEBT, 2009-2014
In December of 2014, the net flow of private external debt was negative at USD -105.3 million. During
this month, the country received disbursements for USD 543.5 million, and repaid USD -648.8 million. The
balance of private external debt by the end of 2014 was USD 6,512.0 million, equivalent to 6.4% of GDP.
1.300
1.100
897,5
900 787,8
718,1
700
543,5
500
Millions of USD
300
36,2
229,0
100
-100
-105,3
-300
-364,8
-500
-700
-648,8
-900 -751,6
-1.100
-880,1
-1.025,7
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-1.300
2009
2010
Disbursements
Source: BCE.
2011
2012
Repayments
2013
2014
Net Flow
61
Foreign Trade*
-Oil (OTB) and Non Oil (NOTB) Trade Balance
- Oil (O) and Non Oil (NO) exports
- Price of Oil
- Oil (O) and Non Oil (NO) imports
- Imports by economic use or destination (CUODE in
Spanish)
- Main commercial balances
(*) Figures are modified according to the updates and reprocesses based on the information provided by the National Customs
Service of Ecuador (SENAE in Spanish).
TRADE BALANCE
In 2014, a deficit of USD 727 million was registered, which indicated a recovery of international trade of 30.2%, compared
to the result of the trade balance in 2013, which was USD -1,041 million.
2010 - 2014
10.000
120
7.500
100
80
2.500
60
-1.041
-727
0
-2.500
USD / barrel
Millions of USD / FOB
5.000
40
-5.000
20
-7.500
-10.000
Total
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-1.979
-830
-441
-1.041
-727
Oil products
5.630,4
7.858,3
8.350,7
8.180,3
6.885,1
Non-oil products
-7.609,1
-8.687,8
-8.791,3
-9.221,3
-7.612,0
71,9
96,9
98,1
95,6
84,2
Average price per crude oil barrel (right axis)
Source: BCE.
0
63
TRADE BALANCE
The Total Trade Balance as of December 2014 registered a deficit of USD -603 million, which increased by 132.3%
compared to the result obtained in November of 2014 (USD -259 million).
1.500
1.000
500
0
-500
-1.000
-1.500
Oil products
Jan.- Feb.- Mar.- Apr.- May.- Jun.-1 Jul.-1 Aug.- Sep.- Oct.-1 Nov.- Dec.-1 Jan.- Feb.- Mar.- Apr.- May.- Jun.13
13
13
13
13
3
3
13
13
3
13
3
14
14
14
14
14
14
Jul.- Aug.- Sep.- Oct.- Nov.- Dec.14
14
14
14
14
14
683
715
642
672
590
624
562
964
696
826
607
588
728
442
684
772
388
964
783
684
538
416
356
143
Non-oil products -937 -603 -574 -805 -953 -700 -1.013 -919 -742 -833 -665 -477 -656 -389 -384 -621 -692 -622 -804 -673 -616 -793 -616 -746
Total
-254
38
98
-215 -329 -138
-49
-224
84
-226
-78
250
-213
295
388
-233
272
161
-89
11
-78
-378 -259 -603
Source: BCE.
64
EXPORTS
During 2014, total exports FOB amounted to USD 25,732 million; 3.61% greater in comparison to exports in JanuaryDecember 2013 (USD 24,848 million) in relative terms.
2010 - 2014
30.000
180.000
24.848
25.732
20.000
140.000
120.000
100.000
15.000
80.000
10.000
60.000
40.000
5.000
20.000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oil products
9.673
12.945
13.792
14.108
13.302
Non-oil products
7.817
9.377
9.973
10.740
12.430
Total Exports
17.490
22.322
23.765
24.848
25.732
Crude oil per Barrels (right axis)
136.252
135.045
141.158
148.171
158.185
7.678
8.543
8.284
8.789
9.310
Non-Oil in Q (right axis)
0
Thousands of Barrels and Tonnes
160.000
25.000
Source: BCE.
65
EXPORTS
A decrease of -35.3% in the FOB value of oil products exports can be seen by the end of 2014; from USD 963 million in
November 2014 to USD 623 million. Non-oil product exports also fell by 2.1% (USD 1,067 million to USD 1,045 million).
3.000
18.000
16.000
14.000
2.000
12.000
10.000
1.500
8.000
1.000
6.000
4.000
500
2.000
0
Jan.-13
Non-oil products
Feb.13
Mar.13
Apr.13
May.13
Jun.-13
Jul.-13
Aug.13
Sep.13
Oct.-13
Nov.13
Dec.13
Jan.-14
Feb.14
Mar.14
Apr.14
May.14
Jun.-14
Jul.-14
Aug.14
Sep.14
Oct.-14
Nov.14
Dec.14
1.045
843
850
981
888
965
863
783
838
833
947
959
991
940
1.020
1.115
1.008
1.091
1.012
971
1.030
1.070
1.060
1.067
Oil products
1.086
1.212
1.222
1.037
1.085
1.114
1.341
1.264
1.347
1.176
1.039
1.185
1.076
1.148
1.337
876
1.513
1.292
1.167
1.258
1.034
1.017
963
623
Crude-oil per Barrels (right axis)
10.945
12.065
12.595
10.870
11.321
11.779
13.440
13.021
13.908
12.835
12.285
13.107
11.769
11.737
13.843
8.937
15.794
13.049
12.784
14.629
12.391
13.840
15.636
13.776
Non Oil products in Q (right axis)
733
700
885
752
765
661
624
679
650
778
743
819
777
689
804
750
819
745
745
788
804
765
809
815
Source: BCE.
0
66
Thousands of Tonnes
2.500
IMPORTS (*)
During January and December of 2014, total imports in FOB value totaled USD 26,459.2 million*; 0.8% less than foreign
purchases made in the same period in 2013 (USD 25,888.8 million).
2010 - 2014
12.000
25.888,8
26.459,2
25.000
10.000
20.000
8.000
15.000
6.000
10.000
4.000
5.000
2.000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Oil products
4.042,8
5.086,5
5.441,3
5.927,4
6.417,4
Non-oil products
15.425,8
18.065,3
18.764,1
19.961,4
20.041,8
Total Imports
19.468,7
23.151,9
24.205,4
25.888,8
26.459,2
Oil in Q (right axis)
5.638,5
5.244,5
5.301,4
6.008,8
6.984,6
Non Oil in Q (right axis)
8.077,9
9.229,0
8.981,2
9.606,4
10.311,6
Thousands of tonnes
30.000
0
Source: BCE.
*Includes imports
made by the Ministry of National Defence. Additionally, the BCE, in accordance with international recommendations for the statistical recording
of free merchandise trade, as of the publication of IEM N°1942, has included, within the Consumer Goods group, imports since the year 2011 under the
International Postal Traffic and Express Mail Modality, whose source of information is the SENAE.
67
IMPORTS
3.000
1.200
2.500
1.000
2.000
800
1.500
600
1.000
400
500
200
0
Jan.-13
Non-oil products
Feb.-13 Mar.-13 Apr.-13
May.13
Jun.-13
Jul.-13
Aug.-13 Sep.-13 Oct.-13 Nov.-13 Dec.-13
Jan.-14
Feb.-14 Mar.-14 Apr.-14
0
May.14
Jun.-14
Jul.-14
Aug.-14 Sep.-14 Oct.-14 Nov.-14 Dec.-14
1.780
1.454
1.555
1.693
1.917
1.563
1.795
1.757
1.575
1.780
1.625
1.468
1.596
1.409
1.499
1.629
1.783
1.634
1.776
1.703
1.686
1.854
1.683
1.790
Oil products
403
570
550
446
462
552
377
568
521
569
451
458
634
464
565
488
549
508
452
574
496
601
607
481
Oil in Q (right axis)
405
517
522
448
451
569
389
597
518
620
489
484
683
443
548
493
564
522
476
622
534
672
725
701
Non Oil in Q (right axis)
874
737
795
802
858
765
941
952
793
765
691
634
709
838
856
854
1.086
778
1.036
834
697
944
812
867
Source: BCE.
*Includes imports made by the Ministry of National Defense.
Additionally, the BCE, in accordance with international recommendations for the statistical recording
of free merchandise trade, as of the publication of IEM N°1942, has included, within the Consumer Goods group, imports carried out since the year 2011 under
the International Postal Traffic and Express Mail Modality, whose source of information is the SENAE.
68
Thousands of tonnes
Oil products imports FOB in December 2014 (USD 481 million), were lower by -20.8% compared to those of November 2014
(USD 607 million); while non oil imports (*) experienced an increase (6.4%), from USD 1,683 million to USD 1,790 million.
The same behavior is observed with regard to quantity (metric tonnes). Oil products imports fell by -3.4% and non oil products
imports increased by 6.8%.
IMPORTS BY ECONOMIC USE OR DESTINATION
The evolution of Imports by Economic Use or Destination (CUODE in Spanish), in the months of January-December 2014, in
terms of FOB value with regard to the same period in 2013, showed an increase in capital goods (3.2%); raw materials (0.4%);
consumer goods (0.04%); and other products (8.3%); while fuels and lubricants experienced a downturn (-1.9%).
2010 - 2014
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Consumer goods
4.116,5
4.885,2
4.989,1
5.230,4
5.232,3
Raw materials
5.914,8
7.231,0
7.290,9
7.829,2
8.079,7
Capital goods
5.129,1
5.844,6
6.418,1
6.778,0
6.648,1
Fuels and Lubricants
4.042,8
5.086,5
5.441,3
5.927,4
6.417,4
75,6
40,7
42,2
61,7
55,7
Various
Source: BCE.
(*)Includes
imports made since 2011 under the International Post and Express Mail Modality, whose source of information is the SENAE.
69
IMPORTS BY ECONOMIC USE OR DESTINATION (*)
In December 2014, FOB imports by economic group (CUODE) with regard to November 2014 increased in capital goods
(17.4%); raw materials (2.8%); consumer goods (0.1%); and other products (209.3%); fuels and lubricants experienced a downturn (20.8%).
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
Jan.13
Feb.13
Mar.13
Apr.13
May.13
Jun.Aug.Jul.-13
13
13
Sep.13
Oct.13
Nov.13
Dec.13
Jan.14
Feb.14
Mar.14
Apr.14
May.14
Raw materials
738
564
639
657
Fuels and Lubricants
403
570
550
446
Jun.Aug.Jul.-14
14
14
Sep.14
Oct.14
Nov.14
Dec.14
768
616
715
707
596
681
607
541
639
541
615
659
462
552
377
568
521
569
451
458
634
464
565
488
743
673
784
667
666
734
670
689
549
508
452
574
496
601
607
481
630
Capital goods
596
526
526
572
687
519
609
592
536
591
521
503
584
494
510
535
561
530
541
570
539
616
537
Consumer goods
423
360
387
451
456
423
459
453
435
494
471
420
369
371
370
423
476
426
446
462
476
494
459
460
Others
3,5
3,8
2,9
13,6
3,9
5,0
5,0
4,5
4,8
4,3
6,1
4,2
3,9
3,3
3,8
4,9
3,5
4,7
4,4
3,5
4,8
4,2
3,6
11,2
Source: BCE.
*Includes
imports made by the Ministry of National Defense. Additionally, the BCE, in accordance with international recommendations for the statistical recording of free
merchandise trade, as of the publication of IEM N°1942, has included, within the Consumer Goods group, imports carried out since the year 2011 under the International Postal
Traffic and Express Mail Modality, whose source of information is the SENAE.
70
MAIN TRADE BALANCES BY COUNTRY OF DESTINATION AND
ORIGIN OF GOODS (1)
January - December 2014
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
0
-5.000
-10.000
United
States 2
Chile
Russia
Peru
Venezuela
France
Italy
Jan-Dec 2014
2.894,6
1.742,6
696,7
581,8
533,8
180,9
123,8
Jan-Dec 2013
3.670,4
1.854,3
724,5
799,1
428,6
192,4
144,6
Jan-Dec 2012
4.109,7
1.393,5
580,0
903,5
783,7
80,8
218,3
Jan-Dec 2011
3.988,3
517,5
604,2
670,2
569,7
79,5
313,5
The
Netherlan
ds
India
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan
Argentina
Thailand
Brazil
Mexico
South
Korea
Colombia
55,1
40,7
-176,2
-196,1
-216,1
-276,3
-300,6
-690,5
-771,4
-788,1
-1.186,9
146,5
-485,9
-78,8
-188,6
7,8
-244,0
-249,4
-701,3
-793,2
-902,7
-1.312,7
127,1
-324,3
-206,0
-175,4
-35,2
-337,5
-285,6
-745,9
-743,5
-696,5
-1.065,8
129,3
-150,1
-182,3
-174,9
-274,5
-414,0
-228,8
-799,3
-724,2
-832,8
-1.116,1
Source: BCE.
(1) Crude oil and byproduct exports are registered in accordance with international norms in order to prepare statistics of International Trade of Goods. The country
of the last known destination and data from export invoices issued by EP Petroecuador have been taken into account. Trade balance adjustments, as a result of
imports by the Ministry of National Defense, as well as International Post and Express Mail, are excluded.
(2) Includes Puerto Rico.
71
Other external sector indicators
- Real Exchange Rate Index
- Dollar exchange rate on the
international market
- International Interest Rates
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE , 2007-2014
2007=100
The real effective exchange rate, REER, for 2014 appreciated by -0.4%, by decreasing from 91.9 in 2013 to 91.5 in 2014,
due to the fact that during this month the weighted inflations of countries used for the calculation of the REER were
8.04% greater than that registered by the Ecuadorian economy (3.59%). Most of the countries in the sample devalued
their currencies against the U.S. Dollar.
104
9,00
101,6
102
6,87
7,00
100,0
100
Index
98
96,7
3,00
95,9
96
2,44
94
94,2
1,00
1,48
1,60
(0,47)
91,9
92
(2,58)
91,5
-3,00
(2,48)
90
-5,00
88
(5,66)
REER
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-7,00
2009
2008
2007
86
Source: BCE.
-1,00
Annual Variability %
5,00
98,2
Variation rate
73
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, 2010-2015
2007=100
In 2015, the REER appreciated by -1.24%, by decreasing from 88.05 in December 2014 to 86.96 in January 2015, due to
the fact that during this month the weighted inflations of countries used for the calculation of the REER were 0.57%
lower than that registered by the Ecuadorian economy (0.59%). Most of the countries in the sample devalued their
currencies against the U.S. Dollar.
104
3,00
102
2,00
98
95,66
1,00
97,55
0,00
-1,24
94
-1,00
92
-2,00
-1,92
90,85
90
-3,00
88,05
88
86,96 -4,00
86
-4,05
84
-5,00
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Index
96
2010
2011
2012
REER
Source: BCE.
Variation rate
2013
2014
2015
74
variability %
100
BILATERAL REAL EXCHANGE RATE FOR THE UNITED STATES, MEXICO,
BRAZIL AND CANADA 2007-2014, 2007=100
By 2014, the bilateral real exchange rate, of the United States, Mexico, Brazil and Canada appreciated by -1.90%, -3.58%, 5.88%. and -8,38% respectively. The average weighted variation rate of the four countries was -3.0%.
140
4,00
120
100
0,00
Index
80
-2,00
60
-4,00
40
-6,00
20
0
-8,00
United States
2007
100,00
2008
95,79
2009
90,77
2010
89,09
2011
87,97
2012
85,43
2013
84,38
2014
82,78
Mexico
100,00
95,22
78,53
84,47
85,04
79,46
82,80
79,84
Brazil
100,00
103,50
94,67
109,14
117,15
100,63
94,24
88,71
Canada
100,00
95,06
84,64
92,30
94,66
90,54
96,33
79,09
2,48
(3,23)
(7,41)
2,13
0,56
(5,35)
(1,64)
(3,00)
Average weighted variation rate
75
Source: BCE.
Annual Variation %
2,00
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE FOR THE UNITED STATES, MEXICO,
BRAZIL AND CANADA 2010-2015, Base 2007=100
In January 2015, the average weighted real effective exchange rate for the United States, Mexico, Brazil and Canada
appreciated by -0.6% as a result of these countries having average weighted inflations lower than that registered by the
Ecuadorian economy. Mexico and Canada devalued their currencies against the U.S. Dollar by 1.21% and 4.18%
respectively. Alternatively, Brazil appreciated its currency by -0.41% against the dollar.
100
1,50
94,30
1,00
95
0,00
85
(0,67)
80
(0,49)
79,71
(0,50)
variability %
0,50
90
(1,00)
79,17
75
(1,50)
70
(2,00)
65
(2,50)
(2,78)
2010
2011
2012
REER EEUU-MEXICO-BRAZIL-CANADA
Source: BCE.
2013
2014
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
(3,00)
Jan
60
2015
Average variation rate
76
BILATERAL REAL EXCHANGE RATE EURO ZONE,
2007-2014
2007=100
For 2014, the bilateral real exchange rate average index of the Euro zone appreciated by 0.03%, mainly due to the
depreciation of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. Germany’s bilateral real exchange rate appreciated by -2.63%, Italy’s by 3.28%, Spain’s by -3.65%, France’s by -3.02%, Belgium’s by -3.18%, and the Netherland’s by -2.56%.
110
0,08
0,07
100,0
102,0
0,06
100
0,02
0,02
89,0
90
Index
0,03
92,3
0,02
86,3
80,2
0,00
81,9
79,4
80
(0,03)
70
-0,02
-0,04
annual variability rate %
0,04
-0,06
(0,06)
-0,08
60
(0,10)
(0,10)
-0,10
REER euro zone
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
-0,12
2007
50
Variation rate
77
Source: BCE.
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
EURO ZONE, 2010-2015
Base 2007=100
By January 2015, the average weighted real exchange rate of the Euro zone appreciated by -5.80%, this mainly due to the
depreciation of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar by 5.41%.
98
92,79
8,00
91,73
88
6,00
78
72,54
4,00
68,34 2,00
58
0,00
48
-2,00
38
variability %
68
(3,36)
-4,00
28
18
(5,80)
(6,22)
2010
2011
2012
2013
REER euro zone
Variation rate
2014
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
Jan
Nov
Sep
Jul
May
Mar
-8,00
Jan
8
-6,00
2015
78
Source: BCE.
BILATERAL REAL EXCHANGE RATE
ASIAN COUNTRIES, 2007-2014
Base 2007=100
In 2014, the bilateral real exchange rate indexes of Japan and China appreciated by -8,5% and -3.27% respectively.
Conversely, that of South Korea depreciated by 1.69%. In 2014, China and South Korea appreciated their currencies
against the U.S. Dollar by -0.83% and -3.88% respectively while Japan depreciated its currency by 8.48%.
140
15,00
120
10,00
5,00
100
Index
(5,00)
60
(10,00)
40
(15,00)
20
0
(20,00)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
South Korea
100,00
81,42
68,67
75,40
78,31
74,91
76,01
77,29
Japan
100,00
106,54
110,41
112,83
118,45
112,69
90,01
82,30
China
100,00
102,07
92,60
93,88
96,06
91,10
90,34
87,39
3,01
(18,58)
(15,67)
9,80
3,86
(4,34)
1,47
1,69
Variation rate Japan
(3,38)
6,54
3,63
2,20
4,98
(4,87)
(20,12)
(8,57)
Variation rate China
5,81
2,07
(9,28)
1,38
2,32
(5,16)
(0,83)
(3,27)
Variation rate South Korea
(25,00)
79
Source: BCE.
Annual Variation rate %
0,00
80
REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
ASIAN COUNTRIES, 2010-2015
Base 2007=100
In January 2015, the average weighted real effective exchange rate for Asian countries appreciated by -0.28%, this mainly
due to the fact that these countries had average weighted inflations lower than that registered by the Ecuadorian economy.
China depreciated its currency against the U.S. Dollar by 0.38%. Conversely, South Korea and Japan appreciated their
currencies by -1.33% and -0.97% respectively.
110,00
3,00
2,30
100,65
100,00
2,00
94,02
90,00
1,00
variability %
79,59
80,00
79,37 0,00
70,00
(0,28)
-1,00
60,00
(1,07)
-2,00
50,00
(2,17)
40,00
-3,00
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2010
2011
2012
REER SOUTH KOREA-JAPAN-CHINA
2013
2014
2015
Average variation rate
80
Source: BCE.
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES, 2007-2014
Data at the end of the period
Since 2008, short term benchmark rates have remained at minimum levels: Federal Funds, 30-day Libor rate and Prime rate,
0.25%, 0.17% and 3.25% respectively.
8,0
7,25
7,0
Interest rates
6,0
5,0
4,0
4,60
4,25
3,25
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,25
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2014
0,17
0,0
(1,0)
FED
PRIME NY
LIBOR
81
Source: BCE.
INTERNATIONAL INTEREST RATES, 2010-2015
Data at the end of the period
By January 2015, international interest rates remained stable. The Federal Funds rate (0.25%), Prime rate (3.25%) and the
30-day Libor rate (0.17%) did not vary. The United States Federal Reserve, during its last meeting, stated that rates could
remain low “for some time”.
3,5
3,25
3,25
3,0
Interest rates
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,25
0,23
0,25
0,17
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
0,0
2010
2011
2012
FED
Source: BCE.
PRIME NY
2013
LIBOR
2014
2015
82
MONETARY
SECTOR
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
Annual averages 2006-2014
By December 31, 2014, the International Reserves registered a balance of USD 3,949.1 million; a decrease of USD 411.5
million with respect to December 2013. This variation is mainly explained by deposit movements of the non financial
public sector.
6.000
5.418,7
5.010,5
5.000
4.087,9
4.000
3.771,3
3.819,2
3.829,6
3.737,7
2009
2010
2011
2012
3.104,0
3.000
2.395,0
2.000
1.000
0
2006
2007
2008
2013
2014
84
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
Millions of USD, 2010-2015
3,654.7
By January 2015, International Reserves
registered a balance of USD 3,654.7 million.
Jan.-10
Feb.-10
Mar.-10
Apr.-10
May.-10
Jun.-10
Jul.-10
Aug.-10
Sep.-10
Oct.-10
Nov.-10
Dec.-10
Jan.-11
Feb.-11
Mar.-11
Apr.-11
May.-11
Jun.-11
Jul.-11
Aug.-11
Sep.-11
Oct.-11
Nov.-11
Dec.-11
Jan.-12
Feb.-12
Mar.-12
Apr.-12
May.-12
Jun.-12
Jul.-12
Aug.-12
Sep.-12
Oct.-12
Nov.-12
Dec.-12
Jan.-13
Feb.-13
Mar.-13
Apr.-13
May.-13
Jun.-13
Jul.-13
Aug.-13
Sep.-13
Oct.-13
Nov.-13
Dec.-13
Jan.-14
Feb.-14
Mar.-14
Apr.-14
May.-14
Jun.-14
Jul.-14
Aug.-14
Sep.-14
Oct.-14
Nov.-14
Dec.-14
Jan.-15
7.000
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
4.000
3.500
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AMOUNTS
Millions of USD, December 2014
With regard to Domestic Investment, by December
2014, the BCE invested USD 5,089.9 million, of
which public financial institutions have made capital
payments of USD 2,605.9 million.
INITIAL
AMOUNT
CAPITAL
PAYMENT
INVESTED
AMOUNT
1.064,3
612,9
451,5
PACÍFICO
175,0
45,8
129,2
BEV
268,4
174,4
94,0
BNF
955,5
623,9
331,6
CFN
2.169,7
914,0
1.255,7
457,0
228,5
228,5
5.089,9
2.599,5
2.490,4
ISSUER
BEDE
CONAFIPS
TOTAL
85
MONEY SUPPLY (M1) AND TOTAL LIQUIDITY (M2)
(Millions of USD, 2000-2014)
In 2014, money supply and total liquidity presented
45.700
40.104
35.051
Millions of USD
35.700
30.906
30.700
26.557
22.189
18.588
17.177
25.700
20.700
15.700
10.700
5.700
18.695
16.000
16.272
14.000
14.512
12.000
12.093
10.000
10.776
14.013
12.084
6.260
3.030
8.880
9.210
9.540
7.367
7.009
3.279
4.545
4.098 4.230
5.291
18.000
6.327
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Liquidity
29
30
4.000
0
EMC (right)
(Annual growth rates)
6.000
Money Supply (right)
In 2014, liquidity displayed an upward trend totalling
USD 40,104.3 million, of which currency in circulation
(EMC) represented 23.8%, while the money supply
reached USD18,695.2 million.
26,7
25
25
2.000
700
MONETARY AGGREGATES
35
8.000
Annual growth rate
40.700
annual growth rates of 14.9% and 14.4% respectively.
While currency in circulation registered an annual
variation of 29.5%. xx
20.000
20,0
22,6
20
15
15,7
15,6
10
13
19,4
17,0
16,0
16
14,9
13,4 14,4
12,1
8,2
5
16
19,6
16,4
12,2
12,0
8
19,7
7
3,7
3
0
2006
2007
2008
Currency in Circulation
2009
2010
2011
Monetary Supply
2012
2013
2014
Total Liquidity
86
MONEY SUPPLY (M1) AND TOTAL LIQUIDITY (M2)
(Millions of USD, 2000-2014)
In December 2014 money supply and total liquidity
presented annual growth rates of 14.9% and 14.4%
respectively. Meanwhile, currency in circulation
registered an annual variation of 29.5%.
45.000
40,104.3
40.000
35.000
25.000
18,695.2
20.000
5.000
0
(Annual growth rates)
9.539,9
8.933,6
35
3.984,2
30
Total Liquidity
Monetary Supply
Currency in Circulation
By December 2014, total liquidity was USD 40,104.3
million, of which currency in circulation (EMC)
represented 23.8%, while money supply amounted to USD
18,695.2 million.
29,5
25
20
15
14,9
14,4
10
5
0
Jan.-10
Mar.-10
May.-10
Jul.-10
Sep.-10
Nov.-10
Jan.-11
Mar.-11
May.-11
Jul.-11
Sep.-11
Nov.-11
Jan.-12
Mar.-12
May.-12
Jul.-12
Sep.-12
Nov.-12
Jan.-13
Mar.-13
May.-13
Jul.-13
Sep.-13
Nov.-13
Jan.-14
Mar.-14
May.-14
Jul.-14
Sep.-14
Nov.-14
10.000
MONETARY AGGREGATES
Annual growth rate
15.000
18,358.3
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Millions of USD
30.000
EMC
Money Supply
Total Liquidity
87
FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEPOSITS
25.000
The Financial System current portfolio to the private
sector (corporations and households) in December
2014 was USD 25,640.8 million (25.4% of GDP*).
30
21.804,5
17.669,8
20
14.994,1
15.000
12.228,8
15
9.828,9
8.758,7
7.505,7
6.637,4
6.235,4
5.000
4.147,6
FINANCIAL SYSTEM CURRENT PORTFOLIO
8.499,7
7.835,6
10
16.000
5.014,1 5.991,1
3.795,4
2.378,4 2.719,8
14.956,8 30
13.503,4
14.000
5
0
2007
Corporations deposits
2008
2009
2010
Household deposits
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual growth rate (right axis)
Deposits by corporations and households in the
Financial System reached USD 30,304.2 million in
December of 2014 (30.0% of GDP*), the growth rate
during this month was 10.3%.
Millions of Dollars
12.000
0
2006
25
12.079,8
10.778,2
10.000
4.000
15
9.547,9
6.805,0 6.856,3
8.707,3
10
7.583,7
5.460,4
6.312,4
4.500,0
5.478,1
3.896,3 4.228,6
5
5.278,0
0
2.000
0
-5
2006
2007
2008
Corporations portfolio
(*) GDP projections 2014
10.683,9
8.765,3
8.000
6.000
20
Percentages
10.000
Percentages
Millions of dollars
25
19.628,2
20.000
2009
2010
2011
Households portfolio
2012
2013
2014
88
0
25.000
20
15.8
Household deposits
Corporations deposits
(*) GDP projections 2014
15
15.000
10.000
10.3
4,6
10
Deposits by corporations and households in the Financial
System reached USD 30,304.2 million in December 2014
(30.0% of GDP*). Annual growth rate was 10.3% during
that month.
30.000
5
25.000
0
0
24,1
25,640.8
20.000
15.000
17.3
Current Portfolio Households
Current Portfolio Companies
12,3
11.2
15
10
5.000
89
Percentages
25
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
30.000
Percentages
5.000
FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEPOSITS
Millions of USD
20.000
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Millions of USD
35.000
30,304.2
30
The Financial System’s portfolio (current) of the private
sector (corporations and households) in December
2014 was USD 25,640.8 million (25.4% of GDP*).
17,4
FINANCIAL SYSTEM CURRENT PORTFOLIO
30
25
20
10.000
5
-2,6
0
-5
CREDIT VOLUME
By 2014, the total volume of credit granted by the private financial system, was USD 24,506 million totalling 6,696,104
operations.
Credit Volume
30.000
Number of Operations
8,00
7,10
7,00
6,78
5,87
5,69
6,00
6,18
5,06
20.000
Credit Volume
Millions USD
5,00
15.000
4,00
3,00
10.000
Millions
25.000
6,70
2,00
5.000
1,00
12.210
11.866
15.587
18.463
20.428
22.773
24.506
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-
-
Source: IFI´
90
CREDIT VOLUME
By January 2015, the total volume of credit granted by the private financial system was USD 1,708.8 million,
which represented a decrease of USD 354.8 million with respect to December 2014, equivalent to a monthly
variation of 17.19% and an annual variation of 3.69%.
2.400,0
650.000
2.300,0
550.000
2.000,0
500.000
1.900,0
1.800,0
457.858
1.700,0
Credit Volume (left)
Credit Volume
Source: Central Bank of Ecuador
Dec.-14
Nov.-14
Oct.-14
Sep.-14
Aug.-14
Jul.-14
Jun.-14
May.-14
Apr.-14
Mar.-14
Feb.-14
Jan.-14
1.600,0
450.000
Jan.-15 1.708,8
Credit Volume
Millions USD
2.100,0
600.000
2.200,0
400.000
Number of Operations (right)
1 - 2013
1.774,3
533.761
12 - 2014
2.063,6
604.428
1 - 2015
1.708,8
457.858
91
MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF THE PRIVATE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
12,00
RETURN ON ASSETS
Percentages, December 2013 – 2014
percentages
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
Dec. Jan.- Feb.- Mar. Apr.- May Jun.- Jul.- Aug. Sep.- Oct.- Nov. Dec.
-13 14 14 -14 14 .-14 14 14 -14 14 14 -14 -14
System
0,81 1,07 1,02 1,36 1,06 1,07 1,09 1,11 1,12 1,13 1,20 1,17 1,11
Banks
0,87 0,93 0,89 0,93 0,94 0,95 0,97 0,97 0,99 1,00 1,10 1,06 1,02
Credit Unions
0,93 1,33 1,15 1,16 1,20 1,20 1,22 1,30 1,30 1,32 1,31 1,30 1,14
Mutual Societies
0,94 0,61 0,36 0,46 0,33 0,38 0,40 0,37 0,37 0,36 0,28 0,30 0,44
By December 2014, Return on Assets (ROA) by financial
sub-system was: 9.99% for credit cards, 2.31% for
financial corporations, 1.14% for credit unions, 1.02%
for banks, and 0.4% for mutual societies.
Financial Corporations 2,05 2,48 2,30 2,28 2,26 2,35 2,29 2,23 2,12 2,28 2,46 2,49 2,31
5,82 3,24 3,87 4,02 4,42 4,93 5,26 5,52 5,81 6,07 4,16 4,53 9,99
With regard to Return on Equity (ROE) for banks,
credits unions, financial corporations and credit
cards increased. On average, this indicator had an
annual increase of 1.78 percentage points.
30,00
RETURN ON EQUITY
25,00
percentages
Credit Cards
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
Note: The reduction of the ROA and ROE indicators for
credit cards is explained by the merger of Pacificard with
Pacífico, leaving Interdin as the only entity classified in the
Credit Card subsystem.
0,00
Dec.- Jan.- Feb.- Mar. Apr.- May. Jun.- Jul.- Aug.- Sep.- Oct.- Nov. Dec.13 14 14 -14 14 -14 14 14 14 14 14 -14 14
System
7,71 10,16 9,59 12,77 10,05 10,22 10,44 10,59 10,76 10,97 11,67 11,43 10,73
Banks
9,16 9,78 9,39 9,77 9,91 10,02 10,28 10,39 10,62 10,76 11,86 11,49 10,94
Credit Unions
6,74 9,55 8,28 8,39 8,75 8,73 8,91 9,52 9,60 9,74 9,71 9,66 8,24
Mutual Societies
8,78 5,68 3,35 4,26 3,05 3,60 3,81 3,48 3,49 3,41 2,70 2,82 4,14
Credit Cards
Source: SBS and SEPS.
16,25 9,06 10,96 11,46 12,58 14,02 14,97 15,56 16,36 17,06 11,80 13,01 26,13
92
MAIN FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF THE PRIVATE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM
40,00
35,00
30,00
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
5,00
-
Dec13
Jan14
Feb14
Mar
-14
Apr14
May
-14
Jun14
Jul14
Aug
-14
Sep14
Oct14
Nov
-14
Dec14
System
28,31 26,22 25,29 25,73 24,06 23,13 23,94 23,56 24,48 23,66 22,99 23,48 25,32
Banks
30,62 26,92 25,77 26,11 24,33 23,46 24,29 24,00 25,16 24,24 23,81 24,35 26,00
Credit Unions
20,66 20,84 20,62 21,27 20,93 19,98 20,53 19,88 19,82 19,18 18,01 18,30 21,33
Mutual Societies
11,41
7,20
8,72
13,71 10,32
9,16
8,35
9,54
8,89
7,75
7,68
8,23
900,00
800,00
700,00
600,00
500,00
400,00
300,00
200,00
100,00
(100,00)
(200,00)
189,0 183,3 212,6 215,1 206,6 194,3 212,3 362,1 433,6 804,7
10,99
Note: The reduction of credit card liquidity is not calculated by
the merger of Pacificard with Pacífico, leaving Interdin as the
only entity classified in the Credit Card subsystem.
-
-
LIQUIDITY
25,00
20,00
15,00
10,00
Percentages
During December 2014, this indicator
registered a contraction in all sub-systems,
with the exception of credit unions. With
regard to December 2013, the indicator
contracted on average 40.57 percentage
points.
-
The portfolio default index, compared to
December 2014 presented annual
reductions in all sub-systems, with the
exception of banks and mutual societies.
This reflects an improvement of the
portfolio.
Note: The reduction of the default indicator for credit cards is
explained by the merger of Pacificard with Pacífico, leaving
Interdin as the only entity classified in the Credit Card
subsystem.
Credit Cards
Credit Cards percentages
Banks, Credit Unions, Financial
Corporation and Mutual
Societies percentages
PORTFOLIO DEFAULT
5,00
-
Dec.- Jan.- Feb.- Mar.- Apr.- May.- Jun.- Jul.- Aug.- Sep.- Oct.- Nov.- Dec.13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
System
3,51 3,73 3,83 3,93 3,73 3,85 3,81 3,78 3,80 3,79 3,84 3,88 3,31
Banks
2,63 3,01 3,09 3,19 3,05 3,16 3,14 3,13 3,15 3,17 3,40 3,45 2,87
Credit Unions
5,30 5,73 5,80 5,86 5,76 5,91 5,74 5,63 5,59 5,49 5,67 5,64 5,08
Mutual Societies
2,89 3,04 3,25 3,66 3,39 3,57 3,87 3,85 4,78 3,82 3,61 3,85 3,02
Credit Cards
Source: SBS and SEPS.
18,52 18,98 20,99 22,35 16,30 15,93 17,87 17,37 17,57 17,37 1,73 2,53 2,40
93
The maximum lending rate for the consumption segment went from 18.92% to 16.30% in February 2010.
The maximum lending rate of the retail micro-credit segment decreased from 33.90% to 30.50% in May
2010, and that of the accumulation micro-credit segment decreased from 33.30% to 27.50% in May 2010.
Segment
Maximum Effective Active Rate
Benchmark Rate
Difference Sep 07 - Feb 15
Maximum
Ref.
Jul-09
9.33
Feb-10
9.33
May-10
9.33
Feb-15
Sep-07
Feb-15
Productive Corporate
Sep-07
14.03
9.33
10.82
7.41
Business Productive (1)
n.d.
10.21
10.21
10.21
10.21
n.d.
9.48
Productive SMEs
20.11
11.83
11.83
11.83
11.83
14.17
11.10
-
8.28
-
3.07
Consumption (2)
24.56
18.92
16.30
16.30
16.30
17.82
15.98
-
8.26
-
1.84
Retail Consumption (3)
37.27
-
25.92
-
Housing
14.77
11.33
11.33
11.33
11.33
11.50
10.77
-
3.44
-
0.73
Retail Micro-credit (4)
45.93
33.90
33.90
30.50
30.50
40.69
29.35
-
15.43
-
11.34
Simple Accumulated Micro-credit (5)
43.85
33.30
33.30
27.50
27.50
31.41
25.26
-
16.35
-
6.15
Expanded Accumulated Micro-credit (6)
(1) Segment created as of June 18, 2009.
30.30
25.50
25.50
25.50
25.50
23.06
23.80
-
4.80
-
-
-
-
4.70
-
3.41
-
-
-
-
0.74
(2) Reduction of Maximum Rate, february 2010 from 18.92% to 16.30%
(3) Unified segment with the Retail Consumer segment fromJune 18, 2009.
(4) Reduction of Maximum Rate, May 2010 from 33.90% to 30.50% Change in credit ranges, Retail Micro credit segment from USD 600 to USD 3,000 (June 2009)
(5) Reduction of Maximum Rate, may 2010 from 33.30% to 27.50% Change in the micro-credit loan ranges Simple Accumulation of (USD 600 to USD 8,500) to (USD 3,000 to
USD 10,000) (June 2009)
(6) Changes in the ranges of Expanded Accumulated Micro-credit loans went from > USD 8,500 to > USD 10 thousand
Source: Central Bank of Ecuador
94
As of July 2009, in which the domestic liquidity coefficient was established, it has
maintained an upward trend, reaching 78.2% in December 2014 and representing an average
66.7% for this period. Thus, the financial system complies with the minimum coefficient
required, which increased from 45% to 60% in August 2012.
90%
1.200
80%
75,54%
78,53% 78.20%
1.000
70%
600
40,3%
460,19
414,63
30%
Millions of USD
45%
400
20%
200
10%
59.98
0%
-
-
0
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Percentages
800
725,02
50%
40%
60%
59,77%
60%
2007
2008
Repariate surplus from abroad (right axis)
2009
2010
2011
Minimum liquidity coefficient Jul/09 - Jul/12
2012
CLD 45% Jul/09
2013
2014
Minimum liquidity coefficient since Aug/12
95
less restrictive
40%
more restrictive
CREDIT SUPPLY CHANGE INDEX
-10%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-6%
-9%
-20%
Productive
Housing
14.IVQ
14.IIIQ
14.IIQ
14.IQ
13.IVQ
13.IIIQ
13.IIQ
13.IQ
12.IVQ
12.IIIQ
12.IQ
Consumption
12.IIQ
11.IVQ
11.IIIQ
11.IIQ
11.IQ
10.IVQ
10.IIQ
10.IIIQ
10.IQ
-30%
In the fourth quarter of 2014, financial
institutions were more restrictive in the
granting of loans for three of the four
segments analyzed: Consumption, Housing
and Micro-credit; that is, the balance
between the less and more restrictive
Financial Institutions was negative; while no
balance was registered for the Productive
segment.
Micro-credit
50%
40%
30%
26%
20%
10%
7%
6%
0%
-10%
-14%
-20%
-30%
Productive
Consumption
Housing
14.IVQ
14.IIIQ
14.IQ
14.IIQ
13.IVQ
13.IIIQ
13.IIQ
13.IQ
12.IIIQ
12.IVQ
12.IIQ
12.IQ
11.IVQ
11.IIIQ
11.IIQ
11.IQ
10.IVQ
10.IIIQ
10.IIQ
-40%
10.IQ
weakening
Private Financial Institutions, during the
fourth quarter of 2014, experienced an
increased in credit demand in the
following
segments:
Micro-credit,
Consumption and Productive. Conversely,
demand decreased within the Housing
credit segment, that is, applications for
loans made to Financial Institutions
decreased.
strenghtening
CREDIT DEMAND CHANGE INDEX
Micro-credit
96
FISCAL
SECTOR
NFPS OPERATIONS
January-October : 2013 – 2014
The Non Financial Public Sector (NFPS) is comprised of i) the State General Budget, ii) Non Financial
Public Corporations and iii) the remaining institutions among the NFPS.
40.000,0
35.000,0
31.307,7
34.234,0
33.121,2
32.273,6
30.000,0
millions of USD
25.000,0
20.000,0
15.000,0
10.000,0
5.000,0
-966,0
0,0
Total revenue
-5.000,0
GDP percentages 2014
Total expenditures
-274,4
Overall Result
2013
5.8
-1.112,8
-372,7
Primary result
2014
6.1
15.2
35.8
A comparison of the January-October 2014 period with the same period in 2013, yields a greater
collection of revenue and growth in NFPS expenditures, generating a global and primary deficit result in
2014.
Source: Ministry of Finance, BCE and NFPS Institutions
98
NFPS REVENUE
January-October 2013 - 2014
Millions of USD
Growth rate
2013
2014
a
b
b/a
31,307.7
33,121.2
5.8
TOTAL REVENUE
Oil revenue
Non Oil related
Tax revenue
VAT
ICE (Tax on Special Consumptions)
Income tax
Tariff duties
Other taxes
Social Security contributions
Other
Non financial public corporations
operational revenue
Source: Ministry of Finance, BCE and NFPS Institutions
Other, 10,8
GDP %
2013
2014
33.1
32.8
9,711.6
9,492.5
-2.3
10.3
9.4
18,762.4
11,523.0
5,046.2
611.9
3,342.2
1,117.2
1,405.4
3,680.8
3,558.6
19,503.2
12,079.6
5,268.4
663.1
3,624.4
1,095.3
1,428.4
3,848.0
3,575.6
3.9
4.8
4.4
8.4
8.4
-2.0
1.6
4.5
0.5
19.9
12.2
5.3
0.6
3.5
1.2
1.5
3.9
3.8
19.3
11.9
5.2
0.7
3.6
1.1
1.4
3.8
3.5
2,833.7
4,125.4
45.6
3.0
4.1
Percentage structure
Non financial public companies
operational revenue, 12,5
Social Security
contributions, 11,6
Oil revenue, 28,7
VAT,
15,9
Other taxes, 4,3
Tariff duties, 3,3
Income tax, 10,9
ICE (Tax on Special
Consumptions), 2,0
99
COLLECTION OF MAIN DOMESTIC TAXES
January-October: 2013 - 2014
The evolution of the collection of domestic taxes for the period January-October 2014 is as follows:
6.000
10,0
5.000
8,0
millions
4,0
3.000
2,0
2.000
0,0
1.000
-2,0
0
Income tax
VAT
ICE (Tax on
Special
Consumptions)
-4,0
Tariff duties
Other taxes
2013
3.342
5.046
612
1.117
1.405
2014
3.624
5.268
663
1.095
1.428
8,4
4,4
8,4
-2,0
1,6
growth %
percentages
6,0
4.000
Source: MdF
In January-October 2014, significant increases in the collection of the most relevant taxes were
observed, such as Income Tax, VAT, Tax on Special Consumption, and other taxes (including the tax
on currency outflow –ISD in Spanish) with the exception of Tariff duties
100
NFPS EXPENDITURE*
January-October 2013 - 2014
Total Expenditures
Millions of USD
Credit Rate
2013
2014
2014/2013
a
b
b vs a
32,273.6
34,234.0
6.1
GDP %
2014
Current expenditures
Interests
Wages and salaries
Purchase of goods and services
Social Security Contributions
Other
21,343.0
691.6
6,919.2
3,378.6
2,648.6
7,705.1
22,277.7
740.2
7,327.4
3,447.4
2,867.3
7,895.4
4.4
7.0
5.9
2.0
8.3
2.5
22.0
0.7
7.2
3.4
2.8
7.8
Capital Expenditure and net loan
10,930.6
11,956.3
9.4
11.8
33.9
Percentage structure
Capital
expenditure and
net loan, 34,9
Interests, 2,2
Wages and
salaries, 21,4
Purchase of goods
and services, 10,1
Other, 23,1
Social security
contributions , 8,4
(*)Expenses are accrued, greater than cash.
Source: MdF BCE and NFPS Institutions
101
NFPS PUBLIC INVESTMENT
The graph shows the expenditure in Public Investment by the NFPS (State General Budget, Non Public
Financial Companies, Local Governments, and others). During January-October 2014, the amount allocated to
investment and capital expenditure amounted to USD 10.715 million (10.6% of GDP).
15000
18,0
14000
16,0
13000
16,1
12000
14,0
10000
12,0
9000
11,8
11,2
8000
11,2
9,9
7000
10,6
9,6
10,0
8,0
6000
5000
4000
6,0
6,2
4,0
3000
2000
2,0
1000
0
0,0
2007
2008
2009
Millions of USD (left axis)
Source: Monthly Statistical Information-IEM-BCE
*provisional figures 2014 - January-October
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
GDP Percentage (right axis)
102
GDP Percentages
Millions of USD
11000
NFPS FINANCING, 2013-2014
During January-October 2014, a NFPS registered a deficit of USD 1,112.8 million, which was greater
than that observed in the same period in 2013 (USD 965.9 million) and entailed the following financing
of resources:
Overall result (above the line)
a.- Surplus (-) or Deficit (+) (d+e)
b.- Repayments
Domestic repayment
Foreign repayment
c.- Disbursements
Domestic Disbursements
Foreign Disbursements and other forms of financing
Linked to projects
Multilateral
BID
CAF
SDRs allocations
Petrochina Net (Advance)
Restricted deposits
d.- Total external and domestic financing (c-b)
e.- Other sources of financing (1+2+3+4+5+6)
1.- Var. NFPS deposits int BCE
2.- Var. NFPS deposits inFinancial Institutions
3.- Var. NFPS Funds
Solidarity Fund
4.- Asset variation (oil Funds)
5.- Due debt variation
6 - Treasury Certificates
Jan-Oct-13
Millions in USD
GDP %
-965.9
-1.0
966.0
1.0
1,218.2
1.3
399.6
0.4
818.6
0.9
4,318.6
4.6
924.5
1.0
3,394.1
3.6
2,636.8
2.8
757.2
0.8
Jan-Oct-14
Millions in USD
GDP %
-1,112.8
-1.1
1,112.9
1.1
2,441.8
2.4
954.0
0.9
1,487.8
1.5
6,972.5
6.9
1,255.0
1.2
5,717.6
5.7
5,353.7
5.3
363.8
0.4
757.2
0.8
363.8
0.4
3,100.5
-2,134.5
-1,696.8
290.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
-841.9
113.6
3.3
-2.3
-1.8
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.9
0.1
4,530.7
-3,417.9
-2,202.6
161.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1,474.5
97.7
4.5
-3.4
-2.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.5
0.1
*/ negative sign means surplus
103
Sources: MdF and BCE
EVOLUTION OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT'S INDEBTEDNESS
Ecuador maintains the macro-fiscal rule relative to the limit on public indebtedness of up to 40% of GDP. By
October 2014, public debt reached 27.9% of GDP (USD 28,406 million).
30.000
80,0
70,0
25.000
Millions of USD
20.000
50,0
15.000
40,0
30,0
10.000
20,0
5.000
0
10,0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Domestic Debt 2.833
2.801
2.771
3.016
3.489
3.686
3.278
3.240
3.645
2.842
4.665
4.506
7.781
9.927
11.652
External Debt
9.977
10.540 11.032 11.290 10.925 10.792 10.167 10.592 10.052
7.357
8.673
10.055 10.872 12.920 16.754
GDP %
69,9
16,3
19,2
54,5
48,3
44,1
39,4
34,9
28,7
27,1
22,2
18,4
21,3
24,2
0,0
27,9
The balance of external public debt was USD 16.724 million and that of domestic public debt was USD
11,652 million (16.4% of GDP and 11.5% of GDP respectively).
Source: Ministry of Finance and BCE
Note: (*) data from January-October 2014.
104
GDP Percentages
60,0
SOL
La Tolita Culture, from 400 aC. to 600 dc.
The ancestral mythology of Ecuador
is synthesized in its display.
Worked in laminated and embossed gold.
National Museum
DEPUTY MANAGEMENT OFFICE FOR PROGRAMMING AND REGULATION
NATIONAL OFFICE OF MACROECONOMIC SYNTHESIS
www.bce.ec
The reproduction of this document is permitted as long as the source is quoted.

Diapositiva 1

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