2015

CHILE AT A GLANCE
Monthly Rolling Economic
Electronic Presentation
May 2016
CURRENT ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE
GDP GROWTH
(% over same quarter previous year)
5
4,5
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
QIII 2013
QIV 2013
QI 2014
QII 2014
QIII 2014
QIV 2014
QI 2015
QII 2015
QIII 2015
QIV 2015
QI 2016
QIII
2013
QIV
2013
QI
2014
QII
2014
QIII
2014
QIV
2014
QI
2015
QII
2015
QIII
2015
QIV
2015
QI
2016
5.0
2.7
2.7
2.1
1.0
1.8
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.6
2.0
Source: Central Bank of Chile
INFLATION
(%)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Monthly variation
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Apr
12-monthly variation
2015
Monthly
variation
12-monthly
variation
Mar
2016
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.3
4.0
4.4
4.6
5.0
4.6
4.0
4.4
4.4
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.2
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE)
UNEMPLOYMENT
(3-month rolling average,%)
6,8
6,6
6,4
6,2
6
5,8
5,6
5,4
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2015
Feb
Mar
2016
UNEMPLOYMENT (3-month rolling average, %)
2015
2016
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
6.1
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.1
5.8
5.8
5.9
6.3
Source: National Statistics Institute (INE).
DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES
(% annual rate, nominal)
20
15
10
5
0
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2015
Nov
Borrowing rate *
Dec
Jan
Feb
Lending rate *
Mar
Apr
2016
Reference rate
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
2015
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2016
Mar
Apr
May
Reference rate
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.25
3.25
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
3.50
Lending rate *
13.32
13.20
18.24
10.08
9.96
13.32
11.40
12.60
14.04
12.96
16.56
17.40
Borrowing rate *
3.96
3.84
3.96
4.32
4.68
4.92
5.04
4.92
4.68
4.56
4.32
4.20
*Loan/deposits with maturity of 1-3 years.
Source: Central Bank of Chile
FISCAL BALANCE
(% of GDP)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015 *
7.3
7.8
3.9
-4.4
-0.5
1.3
0.6
-0.6
1.8
-2.2
-2
-4
-6
* Estimated by Finance Ministry, February 2016.
Source: Ministry of Finance
SELECTIVE SHARE PRICE
INDEX (IPSA) (%)
8
6
4
2
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2015
-2
Feb
Mar
Apr
2016
Feb
Mar
0.27
6.0
-6.8
0.5
Apr
1.64
-1.0
2016
-4
-6
-8
Monthly variation
Monthly variation
12-monthly variation
May
0,05
3.6
Jun
-3.7
0.6
Source: Santiago Stock Exchange
Jul
-0.7
0.1
2015
Aug
Sep
-0.8
-4.04
4
-6.55
Oct
3.88
-0,6
12-monthly variation
Nov
-4.51
-5.11
Dec
0.68
-4.4
Jan
0.70
-3.4
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
(monthly, US$ million)
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
2015
Feb
Mar
2016
Exports
Imports
2015
2016
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Exports
5,964
5,373
5,720
5,235
4,870
4,902
5,039
5,144
5,201
5,123
5,201
5,196
Imports
4,813
4,391
4,937
5,224
4,931
4,987
5,210
4,744
5,351
4,438
5,351
4,586
Source: Central Bank of Chile
COPPER PRICE
(LME, monthly average, US$/lb)
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2015
Mar
Apr
2016
2015
2016
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
2.86
2.65
2.47
2.30
2.26
2.37
2.18
2.10
2.00
2.01
2.24
2.20
Source: Cochilco
QUARTERLY TRADE BALANCE, 2013-2016
(US$ million)
3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000
500
0
Q II
-500
Q III
Q IV
QI
Q II
Q III
Q IV
QI
Q II
Q III
Q IV
QI
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
-1.000
Q II
1,211
Q III
-540
Q IV
704
QI
2,116
Source: Central Bank of Chile
Q II
2,853
Q III
1,055
Q IV
1,743
QI
2,581
Q II
2,905
Q III
-136
Q IV
-858
QI
2,109
EXCHANGE RATE
(Monthly average, pesos/US$)
740
720
700
680
660
640
620
600
580
560
540
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
2015
Mar
Apr
Mar
682
Apr
670
2016
EXCHANGE RATE (Monthly average, pesos/US$)
2015
May
608
Jun
630
Jul
650
Aug
688
Source: Central Bank of Chile
Sep
691
2016
Oct
685
Nov
704
Dec
704
Jan
722
Feb
704
SUMMARY OF CENTRAL BANK
FORECASTS, 2016
GDP growth (%)
Inflation (year-end, %)
Trade balance (year-end, US$ million)
Copper price (annual average, US$/lb)
Current account balance (% of GDP)
Source: Central Bank, Monetary Policy Report, March 2016.
1.75
3.6
800
2.20
-2.5
SUMMARY OF PRIVATE
FORECASTS, 2016*
GDP growth (annual, %)
2016
1.7
Inflation (annual, %)
2016
3.01%
Reference interest rate (annual nominal %, year-end)
2016
3.50
Exchange rate (pesos/dollar, August 2015)
2016
* Average private forecasts as surveyed by Central Bank, May 2016.
700
CHILE AT A GLANCE
(BACKGROUND)
GEOGRAPHY
Four main geographic areas with different
economic activities:
• North (Atacama Desert): mining, principally
copper and nitrates
• Central Valley, with Santiago (capital and seat of
government) and Valparaíso (port and seat of
Congress): manufacturing, agriculture, wine
production and agribusiness
• South: forestry, salmon farming, fishing,
agriculture and, in Concepción, petrochemicals and
steel production
• Fjords and Tierra del Fuego: tourism, agriculture,
fishing, gas and oil production, coal mining.
THE CHILEANS
Population: 17.8 million
Language: Spanish
Literacy: 97.8%
Poverty: 7.8% (2013)
Life expectancy: 78.5 years
Indigenous population: 9.1%
THE ECONOMY
• GDP per capita (PPP) 2015 = US$23,556*
• Labour force = 8.5 million
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-1
GDP Growth, 2005-2014 (%)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.7
5.2
3.3
-1.0
5.8
5.8
5.5
4.2
1.9
2.1
* Estimated by IMF, April 2015.
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
MONETARY POLICY
• Autonomous Central Bank, responsible for
means of payment and price level
• Inflation-targeting policy: 2%-4% over 24-month
horizon
• Overnight interest rate set in nominal terms at
monthly monetary policy meeting.
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
FISCAL POLICY
• Structural fiscal rule in force since 2001
• Government spending tied to structural (noncyclical) income
• Non-cyclical income calculated on basis of
trend growth and expected copper price over
next ten years (both estimated by committee of
independent experts).
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
• Floating exchange rate since 1999
• Central Bank retains right to intervene directly
in foreign currency market in case of severe
fluctuations
• No capital controls.
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
TRADE POLICY
• Open economy
• 25 trade agreements with 64 countries,
including Free Trade Agreements with main
trading partners
• Flat-rate tariff of 6% on imports from other
countries.
MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
FDI POLICY
• DL 600 Foreign Investment Statute: investors
sign individual contract with state of Chile *
• Integrated tax system: Corporate tax serves as
credit against withholding tax
• Double taxation avoidance agreements in
force with 25 countries.
* Will be phased out as from 1 January 2016.
INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
UN Human Development Report 2015
1
Norway
2
Australia
3
Switzerland
14
United Kingdom
26
Spain
40
Argentina
42
Chile
74
Mexico
75
Brazil
INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
World Competitiveness
Yearbook 2015
1
United States
2
Hong Kong
3
Singapore
19
United Kingdom
35
Chile
39
Mexico
54
Peru
56
Brazil
Source: Institute for Management Development
INTERNATIONAL RANKINGS
Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016
1
Switzerland
2
Singapore
3
United States
6
Japan
9
United Kingdom
33
Spain
35
Chile
57
Mexico
69
Peru
75
Brazil
Source: World Economic Forum
SOVEREIGN RISK
Chile’s Sovereign Ratings
(March 2016)
Fitch Ratings
A+
Standard & Poor’s
AA-
Moody’s
Aa3
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Exports, 2005-2014 (US$ billion)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Exports, 2005-2014
(US$ billion)
Copper
Total
2006
34.1
59.4
2007
39.2
68.6
Source: Central Bank of Chile
2008
31.8
64.5
2009
29.7
55.5
2010
41.4
71.1
2011
44.7
81.4
2012
42.0
77.8
2013
40.0
76.5
2014
37.9
75.7
2015
31.1
63.4
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
30
Imports, 2005-2014
(US$ billion)
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
Consumer goods
Consumer goods
Oil & Other fuels
Non-oil inputs
Capital goods
Total *
2006
9.2
8.2
14.4
7.1
36.4
2007
11.2
10.7
17.4
8.2
44.4
2008
13.5
15.8
22.4
11.0
58.4
2010
Oil
2009
10.1
8.9
15.8
8.0
40.1
Source: Central Bank of Chile. *FOB; other figures CIF.
2011
Non-oil inputs
2010
15.6
11.3
21.2
11.1
55.4
2011
18.7
16.0
26.2
13.8
70.4
2012
2013
2014
2015
Capital goods
2012
19.8
16.0
27.7
16.6
75.5
2013
21.7
15.1
27.3
15.3
74.7
2014
20.0
13.7
26.3
12.2
67.9
2015
18.3
8.0
25.1
11.6
59.2
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Main Trading Partners, 2015
Exports
Imports
US$ billion
US$ billion
China
16.7
United States
14.8
United States
8.2
China
11.8
Japan
5.5
Brazil
4.9
South Korea
4.1
Source: Central Bank of Chile
Argentina
2.5
INTERNATIONAL TRADE
Chile-UK Trade
(US$ million)
Exports to UK
Imports from UK
2010
643
941
2011
718
1,306
2012
695
851
2013
682
1,415
2014
723
808
2015
673
540.5
Source: Central Bank of Chile
Feedback / Comments
Please contact email
[email protected]