Maturity levels of Corporate Foresight systems

Transcription

and the role of the CTO in future orientation of a firm
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck & Dr. Katharina Hölzle
Technische Universität Berlin, Chair for Innovation and Technology Management
EITIM Senior Management Forum, Cambridge, UK.
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden, René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina Hölzle 2009
What will we talk about?
Corporate Foresight
Corporate Foresight is the ability,
¾
to grasp the features of social and technological currents
that are likely to have an impact
¾ to recognise patterns before they emerge, and
¾ to see developments before they become trends.
¾ It is not the ability to make predictions.
3
The role of Corporate Foresight – in managing future
orientation and openness for discontinuous change.
Corporate
Development/
Marketing
Strategic
Management
guides policy and
shapes strategy
explores
new markets
Corporate
Foresight
detects adverse
conditions
Strategic
Controlling
Innovation &
Technology
Management
explores new
technologies,
products and services
Source: Own figure on the basis of Slaughter 1998, p. 382, Tsoukas 2004, p. 10
4
Why is this research relevant?
Companies are confronted with discontinuous change
from various directions.
Examples of discontinuous change
Replacement of technology
from chemical photography by digital photography caught Kodak
“of guard” and Kodak had to cut its workforce to ¼ in 5 years
Technology
When girls started maturing earlier
the target market for Barbie dolls shrunk from 3-11 year old
to 3-5 year old and led to a 20% loss in market share
Society/
Consumer
Radical decrease of margins
in the core business of large mainframe computers,
forced IBM to move into the IT-Service market
Market
Legislative
GMO
Ban of Genetically Modified Food
in the European Union came unexpected and destroyed much
of the R&D investments in the industry
6
Discontinuous change can also yield opportunities that
can be exploited.
Example: Trend towards Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability (LOHAS)
New
Consumer
markets
New ways to
differentiate
against
competitors
New
Business
markets
Wellness
Market estimate in the
US: $209 billion
All major companies
publish sustainability
reports
Global index
Green buildings
Market estimate in the
US: $50 billion
But Companies continue to report difficulties
Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden,
René Rohrbeck, Dr. Katharina
Hölzle 2009
toProf.
manage
discontinuous
change.
7
But companies continue to report difficulties to manage
discontinuous change.
De Geus 1997
The Living Company
„The average life expectancy of Fortune 500
companies is below 50 years “
European Industrial
Research
Management
Association
„Effectively detecting and answering to
disruptions will prove crucial for large
companies in order to succeed in our fast
moving environment“
Corporate Executive
Board
Research and Technology
Management Council TM
„Although sensing and anticipating are not
particularly difficult, building an organizational
structure that facilitates an effective response
can prove challenging.”
8
Why is it so difficult for companies to adapt to
discontinuous changes?
Context
Ignorance
1.
High Rate of
change
1.
Short-term
Orientation
2.
Complexity of
Innovations &
Stakeholders
2.
Local
Orientation
3.
Success with
Incremental
change
3.
Filtering from
Lower Levels
4.
Information
Overload
Inertia
1.
Complex
internal
structures
2.
Barriers
against Cannibalization
3.
Complex
external
structures
9
Firms in a crisis more often engage in radical innovations
In % of each group
Past performance: return on investment and
growth – compared to industry average
© 2009 Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
10
Good firms manage innovations in new businesses better
Commercial Project Success,
Rating from 1 to 7
11
The Impact of Innovativeness varies by Dimension
All Success
Measures
Commercial
Success
Efficiency
(Time, Cost)
Innovativeness
(Unidimensional
Construct)
0,21*
0,22*
0,23*
Technological
Innovativeness
0,06
-0,02
-0,03
0,42*
0,46*
0,05
-0,31*
-0,34*
-0,13*
Market
Innovativeness
Organizational
Innovativeness
Meta-Analysis of 77 Studies with 10.730 Product Innovations
* p < 0.01
Source: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of Technological
Innovativeness for the Commercial Success of New Products, TU Berlin 2009
12
Wie wirkt der Innovationsgrad? Meta-Analyse
von 77 Studien mit 10.730 Produktinnovationen
All Success
Measures
Commercial
Success
Efficiency
(Time, Cost)
Innovativeness
(Unidimensional
Construct)
0,21*
0,22*
0,23*
Technological
Innovativeness
0,06
-0,02
-0,03
0,42*
0,46*
0,05
-0,31*
-0,34*
-0,13*
Market
Innovativeness
Organizational
Innovativeness
* p < 0.01
Quelle: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of
Technological
Innovativeness for the Commercial Success of New Products, TU Berlin 2008
13
Path Analysis: Impact of Technological Innovativeness on Success
T1: End of Development
T2: Market Phase (1.5 years later)
Organizational
Innovativeness
H5 (-)
H3 (+)
Technological
Innovativeness
H1 (+)
Market
Innovativeness
H2 (+) Commercial
Success
H4 (+)
H6 (-)
Environmental
Innovativeness
14
Results of the Path Analysis
T2
0.23**
Organizational
Innovativenes
s
R2 = .06
-0.27*
MKT
T2
T1
0.39***
Technological
Innovativeness
0.44***
R2 =
.15
T2
Commercial
Success
MKT
R2 = 0.27
PL
PL
0.12 (n.s.)
T2
0.41***
Environmental
Innovativeness
R2 =
.17
MKT
-0.28**
T1, T2 = Time 1, 2
PL = Project Leader;
MKT = Marketing Manager
Source: Kock, Gemünden, Salomo, Schultz: The Mixed Blessings of Technological
© 2009 Prof. Success
Dr. Hans of
Georg
Innovativeness for the Commercial
New Gemünden
Products, TU Berlin 2009
15
What do we know so far?
Three major research perspectives have contributed
knowledge on the management of discontinuous change.
Radical innovations
National foresight perspective (macro)
Gemünden et al. (2007)
O‘Connor (2006, 2001)
Stevens, Burley (2003)
Chandy, Tellis (2000, 1998)
Leifer et al. (2000)
Henderson (1993)
Cuhls (2001, 2003)
Grupp, Linstone (1999)
Disruptions
Tellis (2006)
Markides (2006)
Danneels (2004)
Arnold (2003)
Christensen (1997)
Martin (1995)
Gerybadze (1994)
Corporate perspective (micro)
Müller(2008)
Nick (2008)
Rollwagen (2008)
Day, Shoemaker (2004, 2006)
Roll (2004)
Becker (2002)
Bondu (2001)
Krystek, Müller-Stewens (1993)
Wack (1985)
Futures
studies
Innovation
management
Corporate
Foresight
Strategic
management
Corporate Change and Ambidexterity
Environmental scanning
Decision making
Stadler, Hinterhuber (2005)
De Geus (1997)
Romanelli, Tushman (1994)
Mintzberg, Westley (1992)
May et al. (2000)
Elenkov (1997)
Thomas et al. (1993)
Daft et al. (1998)
Nutt (2007)
Arendt (2005)
Judge, Douglas (1998)
Schwenk (1984)
Bahrami (1992)
Henderson, Clark (1990)
Tushman et al.(1985)
Utterback, Abernathy (1975)
Ireland et al. (1987)
Jain (1984)
Daft, Weick (1984)
Hambrick (1982)
17
Our research is built on key findings from earlier research.
Findings from past research
Perspectives
There is a need for ambidextrous capabilities (Tushman, Anderson 1986; Romanelli,
Tushman 1996).
Strategic
management
High performing companies have strong scanning systems (Daft, Sormunen
1988).
Interpretation should be done by top management and information
gathering by boundary spanners (Jemison 1984; Nochur, Allen 1992).
Innovation
management
Incumbents tend to be ignorant and slow to react, and need specific
organizational structures to succeed in times of discontinuous change.
(Christensen 1997; O’Connor, DeMartino 2006).
Committed individuals are the key to drive change and maintain future
orientation (Leifer et al. 2000; Stevens, Burley 1993; Gemünden et al. 2007).
Future orientation should be achieved by exploring possible futures, rather
than trying to predict future developments (Wack 1985, Schoemaker, van der Heijden
Future studies
1992).
Participation in the foresight activity is key to ensure that actions will be
taken (Cuhls 2003; Stuckenschneider, Schwair 2005, Schwarz 2005, van der Helm 2007).
18
Our research is built on the theoretical basis of weak
signals and dynamic capabilities.
Theoretical basis
Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance to
changes happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)
Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et al.
1976 )
Weak Signals
They have to be identified in the environment (Day/ Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/
Caron 1995)
They are usually fuzzy and unstructured (Krystek 2007)
“The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you
are looking for” (Liebl 2005)
Dynamic
capabilities
Definition: “The firm’s ability to integrate, build, and reconfigure
internal and external competences to address rapidly changing
environments” (Teece, Pisano and Shuen 1997)
Capabilities follow an evolutionary pattern (Helfat/ Peteraf 2003)
A competitive advantage can be attained by a company which is able
to reconfigure its resources fast, when faced with changes in the
environment (Dutta/ Narasimhan/ Rajiv 2005, Leifer/ Salomo 2007)
19
What we were interested in?
Research questions and methodological challenges
Research Questions
1
What are the elements of corporate foresight systems?
2
What are the levels of proficiency within the elements?
3
What are best-practices in corporate foresight?
Methodological Challenges
1
Include multiple industries and countries
2
Include multiple informant perspectives
3
Insure sufficient triangulation and high level of generalizability
21
What we did?
A high level of generalizability was achieved by using
different corporate contexts and collection instruments.
Data sources
Data collection instruments
18 case studies in 7 countries
106 interviews
(80% transcribed)
38 internal
documents
12 benchmark talks
18 publications
(From case-study participant)
51 interview
templates
(for validation of data within
the interview)
23
For triangulation three informant perspectives were used,
with a particular emphasis on the internal customers.
Perspectives of informants
Foresight
Activity
Number of interviews
Usage
Responsible
Internal Customer
of the foresight
activity.
and user of the
foresight insights
41
Activity team
106
working on the
foresight activity.
37
28
Activity
Activity
team Responsible
Responsibl Internal
e
team
customer
TOTAL
24
For validation of the Maturity Model three mechanisms
were used.
Validation means
Case study result
presentations
2 practitioner
conferences
2007: 16 companies
2008: 36 companies
8 academic
conferences
25
What we found?
The Maturity Model of Corporate
Foresight.
The Maturity Model consists of five capability dimensions
and is framed by context and value contribution.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Different
Requirements
i
Organization
Different
Timeframes &
Clockspeeds
Different
Systems &
Practices
$$$
Information
usage
Capabilities
People &
Networks
Method
sophistication
1. Trigger own
actions
2. Influence others
actions
Î Exploiting new
Opportunities
Î Avoiding
unknown risks
28
Information usage
Context
• Reach
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Scanning in core areas or adjacent areas or
white spaces
•Nature
Scope
of
Organization
Scanning extends into
political, technology,
strategy
consumer, and competitor environment
Capabilities
•Complexity
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term vs. active
Volatility
management of short, medium and long
term
Communicative
Interweavement
• Sources
Formal vs. informal
$$$
i
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
29
* Percentage difference larger than 15%
Information Usage
Percentage of “agree”
0
*Exclusive Sources
*
20
40
57%
Top Perfomer
All
80%
100% 100%
*
*Conferences
100
100% 100%
Internal Networks
*
80
75% 75%
Internet
External Networks
60
82%
100% 100%
63%
83% 83%
58%
30
Method sophistication
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Integration capacity
Cross-functional, cross-divisional, crossknowledge domain, etc.
•Nature
Match
of with problem
Organization
Decision-oriented, communication-oriented,
strategy
exploration-oriented
•Complexity
Match with context
Match with time horizon, match with
Volatility
volatility of environment, etc.
Communicative
Interweavement
$$$
i
Information
usage
Capabilities
Method
sophistication
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
31
3
Method Usage
0
20
40
60
80
63%
Deliberate Selection
63%
54%
Top Perfomer
All
32
People & Networks
The capability benchmark is framed by the context of the company and the value
creation in terms of reaction to threats and opportunities and shaping the future.
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Characteristics of Foresighter
$$$
Broad knowledge, internal and external
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
network
Reacting on
Information
• Network usage
scope
threats and
Consciously managed internal opportunities
and
Capabilitiesexternal network
• Internal communication Shaping the
future
Insights are diffused rapidly in a formal
Method
and informal manner
sophistication
i
Characteristics of a Corporate Foresighter
Percentage of „agree“
0
20
40
60
80
100
86%
73%
85%
External
*Strong Network
85%
67%
100%
Broad
*
Knowledge
100%
71%
0
*Effective Diffusion
Top Perfomer
All
86%
Strong Internal
Network
20
40
43%
23%
60
Top Perfomer
All
34
The research framework
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Mode
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
$$$
bottom-up vs. top-down; continuous
scanning
vs. project based
Reacting on
Information
threats and
usage
• Integration
with other processes
opportunities
e.g. innovation management, strategic
Capabilitiesmanagement, corporate development
Shaping the
• Accountability
future
responsibility
to detect weak signals
Method
• Incentives
sophistication
to reward wider vision
i
35
Organisation of Corporate Foresight
0
20
60
80
Top Perfomer
All
38%
Top-Down Process
established
48%
Process
* Bottom-Up
established
50%
27%
Issue driven
Field Search
75%
69%
75%
Continous CF Activities
Every employee responsible
for detecting weak signals
40
69%
13%
18%
36
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Nature of
strategy
$$$
• Willingness to share across
functions
Reacting on
Capabilities
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
Information
• Readiness
scoutsand
and
usage to listen to threats
opportunities
external sources
i
Organization
• Willingness to test andShaping
challenge
the
basic assumptions
future
Method
• Organization's
attitude towards
sophistication
the periphery
37
Cultural Considerations
0
20
88%
* Building and maintaining an
40
60
80
88%
external network is encouraged
62%
50%
100
Top Perfomer
All
46%
Information is shared freely across
functions and hierarchical levels
46%
25%
Basic assumptions are
frequently challenged
25%
28%
13%
Employees actively scan 13%
the companys environment
18%
38
Within the five capability dimensions the aspired maturity
level is chosen on the basis of a context analysis.
Capability dimensions
Maturity levels
Highest possible
value
4
3
i
2
1
Attained maturity
level
The aspired maturity level depend on:
Size of company
Nature of strategy
Complexity of environment
Industry clockspeed
39
To customize and improve specific CF capabilities the
Model’s maturity level descriptions can be used.
Exem
plary
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
Scanning only in current
business
Scanning in current
business and areas of
interest
Scanning in current and
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
business and in white
spaces
Scope
Focus on technology
scanning
Scanning technologies
and poorly some other
areas
Scanning the areas of the
environment to a different
extent
Scanning in all areas
(Technology, political,
competitor, customer)
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term
Short and medium term
are taken into account (12 product life cycles)
Long, medium and short
term are taken into
account
Pro-active scanning in
long, medium and short
term in place
Sources
Use of few and easily
accessible sources
Use of multiple easily
accessible sources
Use of some restricted
sources that provide
competitive advantage
Use of many sources that
provide competitive
advantage
40
Foresight capabilities can be build on either structural or
cultural elements.
Corporate foresight
through
Structure
Culture
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
People &
networks
Organization
Culture
Reach
Match with goal
Characteristics of
foresighters
Mode
Willingness to share
across functions
Scope
Match with context
Internal network
Integration with
other processes
Readiness to listen
to scouts and
external sources
Time horizon
Integration capacity
External network
Formal diffusion of
insights
Informal diffusion of
insights
Sources
Communication
capacity
Accountability
Organization's
attitude towards the
periphery
Incentives
Willingness to test
and challenge basic
assumptions
41
It has been found that companies can achieve a high
foresight success by either structural or cultural means.
Four types of companies
Two dimensions
The Ignorant
Overall limited CF capabilities
The Foresighting Company
Enables employees to start own initiatives to
profit from discontinuous change
The Systematic Foresighter
Has dedicated units for CF
Has implemented processes to ensure that CF
insights are translated into actions
The Hyperactive
Is a company which is obsessed with scanning
the environment and managing the future
To much resources are invested into CF
The company risks to focus to much on the
future and following fashions without staying long
enough in one market to make profit.
The Foresighting
Company
The Hyperactive
The Ignorant
The Systematic
Foresighter
Culture
Encourages every employee to scan the
environment
Structure
42
Within our sample all but one company build their CF
systems on structured means.
Scores of individual companies
Four types of companies
(n=18)
(in percentage)
The Foresighting
company
The Hyperactive
Culture
Culture
6%
42%
50%
The Ignorant
Structure
The Systematic
Foresighter
Structure
43
Best-Practices in Corporate
Foresight.
Best practice overview.
Scout networks
Promoting an
external view
Data mining
i
Linking foresight to
innovation management
Combining scenario
analysis and
roadmapping
Linking foresight to
strategy
Communicating insights
through participation
IT-based
collaboration tools
45
i Information usage
Network of scouts
46
Three companies have installed a scouting network to
gather information which is not publicly available.
Generic scouting network
Scout
Scout
Scout
Scout
Company
boundaries
Information flow
Scout
Network
Internal stakeholder
Sources
Scout
Scouts (internal/ external)
47
One company was aiming to establish a platform to
engage in collaborative foresight with other companies.
Collaborative scouting platforms
(institutionalized through virtual and presence meetings)
Sports
Music
Design
Health
North
America
Media
Europe
China
Retail
Architecture
Furniture
Scouting topics
Own experts
Experts from other companies
48
i Information usage
Data Mining
49
Through normalization and a common taxonomy Data
Mining allows to interrelate multiple data sources.
Data Mining process
Define question
Development of
taxonomy
Data collection
Analysis
Interpretation of data
by human analyst
Defining aim and
question using the
5W
Define entities
Choose databases
Normalization of
databases
Choose format of
report
Define keywords and
probabilities
Develop data
retrieval algorithms
for each relevant
database
Save normalized
data in own database
Preparation of data
for further
interpretation and
decision making
Multiple iterations
50
Data Mining allows to visually explore data, to identify
relationships and to answer specific foresight questions.
Visual exploration in Data Mining
Technology
Example
Company
Researcher
Pilot plant
Research question: Which companies are the technology leaders and which
companies are the biggest producers of micro algae for CO2 reduction
Added value through data mining: Ability to identify the relationships between
technologies, researchers, pilot plants and companies.
Result: 20 page presentation to prepare the decision to acquire the company with
the superior technology and with the most influential researchers.
51
Combining scenario analysis and roadmapping
52
The combination of roadmapping with scenario analysis
can be done differently with different aims.
Situation
analysis
Roadmapping
Scenario analysis
Project 1: „Building of future oriented R&D roadmaps“
1
2
Analyze current
portfolio
3
Analyze R&D
roadmap
4
Trend analysis
8
Plan & initiate new
R&D projects
7
Identify
implications
Identify needed
capabilities
6
Develop
hypothesis
Develop
scenarios
5
Project 2: „Scenario based future exploration“
2
1
Trend analysis
6
Draw technology
roadmap
Identify future key
technologies
5
Identify
implications
4
Develop
hypothesis
Develop
scenarios
3
5
Identify business
opportunities
53
People & Networks
Integrating experts into foresight projects
54
One company used multiple approaches to bring expert
knowledge into the foresight project.
Internal experts on
demand
(from various business units
and regions)
Project core team
Interviews,
meetings,
workshops
(at group head quarter)
Interviews
(telephone,
face to face)
90 interviews with
external experts
(Academics, customers,
venture capitalists, and
consultants)
Regional expert workshops
North America
Europe
Africa & Middle East
Asia
55
Organization
Integrating the internal customer into the
foresight project organization
56
To ensure usage of foresight insights one company
integrates the business owners into the project.
Joint top management steering board
CEO or member of executive board
Head of Strategic Marketing
Joint project management
Project manager
Project manager
Market experts
Technology experts
Sales & marketing
Research & development
Experts on demand (in regions)
Experts on demand (in regions)
Thought leaders
Technology experts
(architects, designers, artists)
Lead customers
Business unit
Corporate technology unit
University contacts
External experts
57
Organization
Integrating foresight into the innovation
management process
58
Linking Foresighting to Innovation Management
Innovation process
Idea generation
Selection
Development
Commercialization
1
Initiator
Identify new needs
Identify new technologies
Identify competitor‘s
concepts early
2
Strategist
Create visions
Provide strategic
guidance
Consolidate opinions
3
Opponent
Assess and reposition
R&D portfolios
Challange basic assumptions (customer needs, technological development, political and regulatory issues)
Identify new business
Challange state-of-the-art of current R&D projects
models and changes in
business logic
Scan for disruptions that might endanger current and future innovaitons
59
One example of a foresight activity which plays the
Initiator role are the Foresight Radars of DT.
Example of for the Initiator role: Deutsche Telekom’s “Foresight Radars”
Identification of emerging trends
Technology Radar
(complete scanning every
4 months)
Technologies
Product & Services
Continuous scanning
Coupled to corporate and divisional
innovation management processes
Product & Service
Radar
(complete scanning every
4 months)
60
At British Telekom the strategic foresight unit plays
primarily the opponent role.
Engagement with internal stakeholders
Strategic foresighters continuously
challenge innovation teams and engage
with strategic management.
61
Culture
Promoting an external view and engaging
actively with internal customers
62
General Electric ensures that all employees participate in
the foresight effort with promoting the appropriate traits.
Making every employee a foresighter
Growth traits defines environmental
scanning and external networks as
desirable
In
each annual
review the
growth traits
Best
Practice
examples.
are tracked and promoted
63
Conclusion.
Recommendations.
Recommendations
i
Information Usage
Make sure to scan in all relevant areas and monitor key
developments.
Use methods with high communicative and integrative
capacity.
People & Networks
Select foresighters willing to bring value to the company
Encourage every employee to build an external network
Organization
Ensure that bottom-up processes are in place, ensuring
that important information will reach top management
Culture
Encourage external and internal networks
Encourage assumptions to be challenged
65
Conclusion.
Status
Need for
Increasing interest
Benchmarking
in advancing practices throughout
different industries and countries
and facilitation of mutual learning and
development of best-practices
Low capabilities
Bringing CF into education
within benchmarking sample and no
consistent SF systems
and introducing methods and tools to
manage the future into higher
education curricula
66
Thank you for your interest!
Thank you for your interest!
Prof. Dr. Hans Georg Gemünden
Chair for Technology and Innovation
Management
Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin
+49 30 314-26090 (Tel)
[email protected]
www.tim.tu-berlin.de
René Rohrbeck
EICT GmbH
Head of Innovation Management
Ernst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin
+49 30 367023522 (Tel)
[email protected]
www.euroCF.org
Dr. Katharina Hölzle
Chair for Technology and Innovation
Management
Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin
+49 30 314-26732 (Tel)
[email protected]
68
Backup.
The strong French research tradition on foresight has
little connection to German and Anglo-Saxon research.
Anglo-Saxon
German
French

Strategic Issue
Management

Strategische
Frühaufklärung

Intelligence
Économique

Environmental
Scanning

Früherkennung

Veille Stratégique

Frühwarnung

Prospective

Peripheral Vision

Zukunftsforschung

Forecasting

Strategic Foresight

Intelligence

Futures Studies

Corporate Foresight
Little cross-referencing
70
euroSF 2007
Presentations in this conference
Integrating Market and Customer
Scouting into Strategic and Operative
Innovation Management
Strategic Foresight for Strategic and
Innovation
Planning
Operative
$$$
Internal Collaboration
for Strategic Foresight
at British Telecom
Tools
Using Roadmapping for
Business and Product Planning
i
Methods and Tools of
Strategic Foresight at Deutsche
Telekom
Integrating Foresight in
Technology Management at
Telecom Austria
71
Ideally companies scan continuously in all areas of the environment.
Information Usage
Political
Foresight
i
Examples
Technological
Foresight
New power plants have to be CCSready
Current
Business
Super critical power plant is market
ready
Demand for gas turbines worldwide is
growing rapidly.
Plug-in hybrids become a major issue
in Germany
Information Usage
Adjacent
areas
Current
Business
Battery technology improvements
boost the plug-in hybrid development
Major competitor puts effort into micro
gas turbines for CHP
White
spaces
Customer
Foresight
Backstop-Technology-Scenario:
Need for current power generation
technologies disappears abruptly
Competitor
Foresight
72
Context
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
$$$
• Nature of the strategy
Nature of
strategy
Complexity
Volatility
Differentiation criteria (Innovation leader,Information
Organization
usage
Cost leader, etc.), growth orientation
i
• Complexity
Capabilities
Industry structure, channel structure,
regulations, dependence of global
economy, etc.
Method
Communicative
• Volatility
sophistication
Interweavement
Number of surprises by high-impact events
in past three events, market growth, etc.
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
73
Information usage
Context
• Reach
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Scanning in core areas or adjacent areas or
white spaces
•Nature
Scope
of
Organization
Scanning extends into
political, technology,
strategy
consumer, and competitor environment
Capabilities
•Complexity
Time horizon
Emphasis on short term vs. active
Volatility
management of short, medium and long
term
Communicative
Interweavement
• Sources
Formal vs. informal
$$$
i
Information
usage
Method
sophistication
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
74
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Integration capacity
Cross-functional, cross-divisional, crossknowledge domain, etc.
•Nature
Match
of with problem
Organization
Decision-oriented, communication-oriented,
strategy
exploration-oriented
•Complexity
Match with context
Match with time horizon, match with
Volatility
volatility of environment, etc.
Communicative
Interweavement
$$$
i
Information
usage
Capabilities
Method
sophistication
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
75
7
People & Networks
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Characteristics of Foresighter
$$$
Broad knowledge, internal and external
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
network
Reacting on
Information
• Network usage
scope
threats and
Consciously managed internal opportunities
and
Capabilitiesexternal network
• Internal communication Shaping the
future
Insights are diffused rapidly in a formal
Method
and informal manner
sophistication
i
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Mode
Nature of
strategy
Organization
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
$$$
bottom-up vs. top-down; continuous
scanning
vs. project based
Reacting on
Information
threats and
usage
• Integration
with other processes
opportunities
e.g. innovation management, strategic
Capabilitiesmanagement, corporate development
Shaping the
• Accountability
future
responsibility
to detect weak signals
Method
• Incentives
sophistication
to reward wider vision
i
77
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
Nature of
strategy
$$$
• Willingness to share across
functions
Reacting on
Capabilities
Complexity
Volatility
People &
Networks
Information
• Readiness
scoutsand
and
usage to listen to threats
opportunities
external sources
i
Organization
• Willingness to test andShaping
challenge
the
basic assumptions
future
Method
• Organization's
attitude towards
sophistication
the periphery
78
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
• Reacting to threats and
opportunities
Nature of
strategy
Complexity
Volatility
$$$
Did foresight enable, enhance or accelerate
the reaction to threats and opportunities?
Information
Organization
usage
• Shaping the future
Did foresight enable or enhance the
Capabilities
capability to influence
the future?
i
• Reducing uncertainty
Did foresight create a better understanding
Method
People
& the uncertainty in the environment
about
sophistication
Networks
Reacting on
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
Reducing
uncertainty
79
Maturity levels – Information usage
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
business
Scanning in current
interest
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
spaces
Scope
Not usable to
communication
areas
extend
Time Horizon
term are taken into
account
term in place
Source
accessible sources
accessible sources
provide competitive
advantage
80
Maturity levels – Method sophistication
Items
Integration
capacity
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Integration methods are
used, but do not integrate
in all three dimensions
Level 4
Used methods are
capable of integrating,
scope, reach and time
horizon of foresight
No integration
Some integration
methods are used
Communication
capacity
Not usable to
communication
Some methods are
known that facilitate
internal communication
Match with
problem
No deliberate method
selection
In some parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
In most parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
Methods are deliberately
selected to match the
business issue or
decision to take
Match with
context
No deliberate method
selection
In some parts of the
company methods are
chosen deliberately
Most parts of the
company choose
methods deliberately
Type of method and effort
is consistent with context
of company
Some methods are used
Methods allow for internal
that help with internal
and external
communication and some
communication
that facilitate external
communication are know
81
Maturity levels – People & networks
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Characteristics
of Foresighters
Foresighters have
knowledge in their
domain
Foresighters have both
deep and broad
knowledge
Foresighters have broad
knowledge and a good
external network
Foresighters have a
strong internal and
external network and
wide interest
Network scope
An isolated foresight unit
reports often to the CTO
An isolated foresight unit
has a good external
network
The foresight unit has
good external and
some internal contacts
Clearly identified and
managed network of
internal and external
partners for foresight
Internal
Communication
The diffusion of insights
relies on irregular formal
communication
Insights are shared in
regular domain specific
meetings
Insights are shared in
issue- and domainspecific meetings
Insights are diffused
rapidly in a formal and
informal manner
82
Maturity levels – Culture
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Willingness to
share across
functions
Poor: Information is
ignored and hoarded
Exchange of information
is rare and happens only
in predefined formal
channels
Exchange of information
is happening in multiple
levels but mostly in
formalized channels.
Excellent: Ongoing
information sharing on
multiple levels
Readiness to
listen to scouts
and external
sources
The organization is
closed. Contacts to the
outside are discouraged.
Some external personal
contacts are called upon,
but gathered insights are
disguised as coming from
the inside
Personal contacts are
regarded as valuable.
Few have a variety of
external contacts.
The organization is open.
Building and maintaining
an external network is
encouraged
Organization's
attitude
towards the
periphery
Limited and myopic: few
people care
Some people are looking
into the periphery, but
they are not known and
called upon
Some people are looking
into the periphery, they
are known but not called
upon regularly
Active and curious:
Scanning the periphery is
commonplace
Willingness to
test and
challenge basic
assumptions
The basic assumptions
are neither known nor
made transparent
Some basic assumptions
are known but not
challenged
There is a good
understanding about
basic assumptions and
their are tested
explicit, much talked
about and frequently
challenged
83
Culture
Context
Value
contribution
Capabilities
Culture
$$$
Complexity
i
Organization
Volatility
Information
usage
Capabilities
People &
Networks
Method
sophistication
Reduction of
uncertainty
Reacting to
threats and
opportunities
Shaping the
future
84
Using the Maturity Model to
design Corporate Foresight
systems.
To use the Maturity Model to design corporate foresight
systems a three step approach can be used.
Findings from past research
Contextual factors that drive the need for a high maturity level are:
1st step
Choosing overall
target maturity level
2nd
step
Choosing to follow a
structural or cultural
approach
3rd step
Choosing maturity
levels for individual
capabilities

Large company size,
Following a differentiation strategy,
high environmental complexity
high industry clock speed
Choosing the emphasis on structure or culture depends on the
context factor corporate culture
Corporate culture is empowering the individual, then the cultural capabilities
should be emphasized
Corporate culture is build on clear responsibilities and clearly defined processes
than the structural capabilities should be emphasized
Companies using a specific source of competitive advantage should
emphasize (technological leaderships, customer understanding)
Companies in high clockspeed environments should emphasize
scanning into adjacent business and white spaces
using methods with high communication capacity
86
Within the five capability dimensions the aspired maturity
level is chosen on the basis of a context analysis.
Capability dimensions
Maturity levels
Highest possible
value
4
3
i
2
1
Attained maturity
level
The aspired maturity level depend on:
Size of company
Nature of strategy
Complexity of environment
Industry clockspeed
87
To customize and improve specific CF capabilities the
Model’s maturity level descriptions can be used.
Exem
plary
Items
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Reach
business
Scanning in current
interest
adjacent business
Scanning in current
business, adjacent
spaces
Scope
Focus on technology
scanning
areas
extend
Time horizon
term are taken into
account
term in place
Sources
accessible sources
accessible sources
provide competitive
advantage
88
Data from SF survey.
89
European Benchmarking Study on Strategic Foresight
Survey
Data: 83 companies
Partners:
Sample
Revenue in 2007
[in EURO]
The sample consist of large
companies
n = 83
35
30
78% have an annual revenue of
above 1 Billion Euro
18
42%
36%
22%
100 Million 1 Billion
- 1 Billion - 10 Billion
Above
10 Billion
91
9
Sample
Business Activities
n = 83
70
The sample consist primarily of
multinational companies
84% have worldwide operations
84%
7
1
regional
8%
5
6%
national continent
al
world
Sample
Industries
[clustered]
Engineering
n = 83

Other
Engineering
13%
Retail
27%
4%
Energy
Service

8%
Consumer 8%
Goods
42,2%
14%
21,7%
Service
12%
36,1%
Hightech
13%
Chemicals /
Medical
Automotive
Mechanical Engineering
Aerospace
Construction
Transport / Logistics
Telecommunication
Finance / Insurance
Chemicals / Medical
Hightech

IT / Software
Electronics
Consumer Goods
Energy
Retail
Other
93
Information Sources
Informal Sources
Formal Sources
regularlyoccasionally
regularly occasionally
Newspapers, Magazines,
Financial Reports
Internal Networks
Internet, Databases
Personal Contacts and
Networks
Public Statistics
Conferences, Exhibitions,
Seminars
Patent Databases
Customer and Expert
Interviews
Reports (public, private)
University-Industry
Collaborations
Publication Databases
Public R&D Programs
"Think Tanks",
Future Researchers,
Foresight Consultancie
R&D Collaborations,
Joint Ventures
Venture Capital Market
Expert Panels
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
94
Method Usage
Methods used by the participants
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Trend Impact Analysis
Environmental Monitoring
Stakeholder Analysis
Focus Groups
(Panels, Workshops)
Extrapolation
Interviews
Text Mining
Future Workshops
Analogies
Roadmapping
Backcasting
Vision Generation
Delphi Method
Scenario Analysis
Cross-Impact Analysis
Decision Matrix
Environmental Scanning
Socioeconomic
Impact Analysis
Simulations
Correlation Analysis
TRIZ
Business Wargaming
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80% 100%
95
Information Usage
0
Exclusive Sources
20
40
57%
100
Top Perfomer
All
100% 100%
80%
100% 100%
Internal Networks
Conferences
80
75% 75%
Internet
External Networks
60
82%
100% 100%
63%
83% 83%
58%
96
Method Usage
0
20
40
60
80
63%
Deliberate Selection
63%
54%
Top Perfomer
All
97
Characteristics of a Corporate Foresighter
0
20
40
60
80
86%
Strong Internal
Network
86%
73%
100
Top Perfomer
All
85%
Strong External
Network
85%
67%
100%
Broad
Knowledge
100%
71%
98
Networks for Diffusion of Information
0
Effective Diffusion
20
40
60
43%
23%
Top Perfomer
All
99
Organisation of Corporate Foresight
0
20
60
80
Top Perfomer
All
38%
Top-Down Process
established
48%
50%
Bottom-Up Process
established
27%
Issue driven
Field Search
75%
69%
75%
Continous CF Activities
Every employee responsible
for detecting weak signals
40
69%
13%
18%
100
Cultural Considerations
0
20
88%
Building and maintaining an
external network is encouraged
40
60
80
88%
62%
50%
100
Top Perfomer
All
46%
Information is shared freely across
functions and hierarchical levels
46%
25%
frequently challenged
25%
28%
13%
Employees actively scan 13%
the companys environment
18%
101