com sunday syber

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com sunday syber

Black Friday Spending Research
December 14, 2014
1675 Larimer Street Suite 640 Denver, Colorado 80202 | 303-895-3593
Research Objectives & Methodology
• Explore spending patterns across the entire 2014 holiday
shopping season with a specific focus on activity occurring
during the five day period beginning on Thanksgiving and
ending on Cyber Monday (11/27/14 – 12-1/14).
• 1,021 survey participants were recruited prior to
Thanksgiving and asked to provide estimates of their 2014
holiday shopping budget relative to what they spent in
2013. They were then re-contacted on 12/2/14 and asked
what they had actually spent over the Thanksgiving – Cyber
Monday time frame and if that experience had changed
what they expected to spend during the balance of the
holiday shopping season.
• 889 respondents completed the follow-up survey; providing
a confidence interval no greater than +/- 3.3%.
2
Two phase online survey
1,021 US consumers
Conducted between
11/26-12/2/14
Data was weighted to align the survey participant
demographic profile to match the 2013 US census.
Executive Summary
2014 holiday spend expectations up 2.65% from 2013
49%
57% of consumers expect to spend more than in 2013
Men
35-54 yrs.
HH Income
< $100K
Increase
driven by:
NE & Midwest
Residents
Tops all retailers in share
of holiday spend
Consumers spend more per gift recipient while
reducing number of gift recipients
$
Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday
Approximately one out of five consumers
disappointed by the level of promotions retailers offered
57% of total 2014 holiday spend
$
Thanksgiving
eclipsed Black Friday
in total sales
$
Consumers anticipate spending
approximately 17.6% of total holiday
budget 12/2/14 - 12/24/14.
3
2014 holiday purchases
40% ofinvolve
use of credit
of holiday purchases made online
HH income is the primary driver of 2014
holiday spend
Expectations for 2015 financial position had no discernable influence over
2014 holiday budgets
Consumer experience during the Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday
extended holiday weekend resulted in expectations to increase total
2014 holiday spend by 12% relative to pre-weekend expectations
2014 Holiday Spend Expectations
• Though the majority of US consumers
reported 2014 holiday spend expectations
greater than what they spent in 2013, the
actual increase in expected spend is 2.65%.
• Respondents forecasting a decline in holiday
spend anticipate reducing their budget by an
average of 32% relative to 2013 (e.g. 2014
average holiday budget of $421) while
consumers anticipating an increase in their
holiday spend expect to spend $817 in 2014
(27.9% increase)
4
Total Holiday Season Average Spend
(N=1021)
$619
$603
2013
+2.65%
2014
2013/2014 Holiday Spend Expectations
(N=857)
Spend More
than 2013
57%
Spend Will
Equal 2013
12%
Spend Less
than in 2013
31%
Q3. Thinking of all your holiday related spending in 2013, what percent was spent between Thanksgiving and the Monday after
Thanksgiving last year?/ F3. Approximately how much did you spend on [day] at [retail category]?
Demographic Comparison: 2013/2014 Holiday Average Spend Delta
• 2014 holiday spending growth will be most significant among men, households with incomes greater than $100K and and
residence in the Midwest/Northeast.
2013/2014 Holiday Average Spend Delta (N=1021)
(Indexed against Total Market Average)
By Gender
+6.1%
By Region
-1.2%
West
+0.5%
Midwest
+7.4%
Northeast
+4.1%
South -0.2%
By Age
By Ethnicity
5
18-34
-1.7%
35-54
+5.1%
Children
in HH
2+ adults
no children
Single
+1.9%
+2.5%
+6.9%
By HH
Configuration
55+
+3.0%
White/
Caucasian
Black/
African
American
Asian
American/
Pacific
Islander
Hispanic/
Latino
Other
+1.3
+1.9
+13.1
-2.5
+5.1
By HH income
Less than
$50K
-3.8%
$50K$100K
$100K
or more
+0.9
+10.2%
December 2nd 2014 Through End of 2014 Holiday Spend Forecast
• Respondents were asked how their experience shopping over the 2014 Thanksgiving holiday weekend influenced their expectations for
how much they would spend between the day after “Cyber Monday” and the end of the holiday season.
• Though approximately one quarter of consumers reduced their total holiday spending expectations, the net reaction across all
consumers was that they would be spending on average, 12% more than originally expected.
2014 Post-Holiday Weekend Spend Forecast Indexed Against Total Market
Gender
Age
Ethnicity
55+
(N=316)
White/
Caucasian
(N=672)
Black/ African
American
(N=91)
Asian
American/
Pacific Islander
(N=52)
Hispanic/
Latino
(N=94)
Other
(N=24**)
20%
20%
22%
31%
28%
34%
28%
11%
12%
14%
12%
14%
4%
14%
9%
23%
8%
6%
10%
17%
24%
20%
19%
Total
Market
(N=889)
Male
(N=345)
Female
(N=544)
18-34
(N=189)
35-54
(N=384)
More Than Estimated
24%
23%
25%
34%
Less Than Estimated
12%
10%
15%
Delta
12%
13%
10%
2014 Post-Holiday Weekend Spend Forecast Indexed Against Total Market
Region
Household Configuration
Annual Household Income
Total
Market
(N=889)
Northeast
(N=178)
Midwest
(N=198)
West
(N=203)
South
(N=310)
Children in HH
(N=369)
2+ Adults
(No Children)
(N=395)
Single
(N=125)
Less than $50K
(N=375)
$50K to less
than $100K
(N=344)
$100K or more
(N=170)
More Than Estimated
24%
29%
22%
21%
25%
33%
21%
12%
22%
25%
27%
Less Than Estimated
12%
12%
13%
12%
13%
10%
15%
11%
18%
9%
5%
Delta
12%
17%
9%
9%
12%
23%
6%
1%
6%
16%
22%
6
F7. In light of what you have spent thus far, do you expect your 2014 holiday spending will be:
**CAUTION: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE, ANALYZE DATA WITH CAUTION
2014 Total Holiday Spend Timing
• Over half of the 2014 holiday spend occurred
between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, with
Thanksgiving having the most sales activity.
• Respondents forecast that they will spend
approximately 17.6% of their total holiday budget
between Cyber Monday and the end of the holiday
season; suggesting that 82% of total 2014 holiday
purchases were made prior to December 2nd.
Share of 2014 Holiday Spend
25.20%
57.20%
Pre
Thanksgiving
Sunday
4%
Thanksgiving
Thru
Cyber Monday
Cyber
Monday
14%
Thanksgiving
Day
38%
Saturday
11%
Black Friday
34%
7
F3. Approximately how much did you spend on [day] at [retail category]?
17.60%
Post
Cyber
Monday
Demographic Comparison: 2014 Holiday Weekend Spend (by Day)
Index scores provide a quick overview of how shopping patterns over the 2014 holiday weekend varied by consumer demographics. Green
highlighted index scores reflect a statistically significant greater likelihood to shop on a specific day; red index scores reflect a statistically
lower probability of shopping on a specific day.
2014 Holiday Weekend Spend Indexed Against Total Market
Gender
Age
Ethnicity
55+
(N=316)
White/
Caucasian
(N=672)
Black/ African
American
(N=91)
Asian
American/
Pacific Islander
(N=52)
Hispanic/
Latino
(N=94)
Other
(N=24**)
1.01
0.67
0.88
1.06
1.63
0.70
1.35
0.87
1.03
1.07
1.05
0.89
0.67
1.23
0.68
1.23
0.66
1.03
1.27
1.06
1.42
0.30
1.73
1.34
0.59
1.48
0.64
1.25
0.99
1.04
0.76
1.11
1.08
1.82
0.94
1.07
0.71
0.81
1.52
1.17
0.82
0.57
0.70
0.33
Total
Market
(N=889)
Male
(N=345)
Female
(N=544)
18-34
(N=189)
35-54
(N=384)
Thanksgiving Day
38%
1.12
0.86
1.34
Black Friday
34%
0.99
1.01
Saturday
11%
0.80
Sunday
4%
Cyber Monday
14%
Region
Total
Market
(N=889)
Northeast
(N=178)
Midwest
(N=198)
West
(N=203)
South
(N=310)
Children in HH
(N=369)
2+ Adults
(No Children)
(N=395)
Single
(N=125)
Less than $50K
(N=375)
$50K to less
than $100K
(N=344)
$100K or more
(N=170)
Thanksgiving Day
38%
0.95
1.02
1.22
0.87
1.17
0.82
0.87
0.94
1.11
0.95
Black Friday
34%
0.96
1.07
0.80
1.12
0.97
1.09
0.79
1.06
0.94
1.01
Saturday
11%
1.37
0.85
0.65
1.08
0.85
1.00
1.73
1.08
0.80
1.11
Sunday
4%
0.62
0.77
1.24
1.24
0.73
1.41
0.78
1.04
0.99
0.98
Cyber Monday
14%
1.06
0.95
1.09
0.93
0.78
1.19
1.34
0.94
1.00
1.05
8
2014 Thanksgiving thru Cyber Monday Spend Distribution by Retailer/Retail Category
• Almost half of the shopping completed at
Electronics stores, eBay, and sporting goods
stores is done on Thanksgiving Day.
• Home goods stores, children’s stores, and
department stores have the heaviest traffic
on Black Friday.
2014 Holiday Weekend Share of Spend
by Retailer
N=889
Electronics Store
50%
eBay
49%
Sporting Goods Store
48%
Health And Beauty Store
44%
Apparel Store
43%
33%
6%3%10%
29%
28%
7%3% 13%
10% 9% 9%
33%
10% 4%10%
39%
Department Store
38%
42%
8% 5% 7%
Children's Store
36%
43%
11%3%8%
Amazon.com
35%
Other
Thanksgiving Day
9%2% 12%
Discount Store
Home Goods Store
9
28%
35%
26%
27%
15%
Black Friday
14% 3% 9%
12% 3%
48%
37%
Saturday
25%
11%3% 11%
14% 8%
Sunday
25%
Cyber Monday
2014 Thanksgiving Thru Cyber Monday Spend by Payment Type
1% 1%
Credit card
Debit card
Cash
PayPal
Apple Pay
Google Wallet
Other
5%
PayPal, which was used for 12% of the Thanksgiving holiday
weekend purchases, is approaching the same share of spend
currently conducted with cash.
12%
40%
The majority of 2014 holiday spending (60%) will not involve
use of credit.
15%
26%
Total
Market
(N=889)
Amazon.com
(N=756)
Discount
Store
(N=711)
Department
Store
(N=481)
Electronics
Store
(N=282)
Home Goods
Store
(N=221)
Apparel Store
(N=226)
Sporting
Goods Store
(N=141)
Health &
Beauty Store
(N=209)
Children's
Store
(N=133)
eBay
(N=155)
Other
(N=248)
Credit card
40%
42%
35%
52%
48%
43%
39%
45%
39%
33%
13%
42%
Debit card
26%
27%
30%
25%
23%
21%
24%
18%
34%
36%
17%
27%
Cash
15%
0%
27%
16%
17%
23%
18%
18%
18%
16%
0%
13%
PayPal
12%
13%
6%
3%
8%
8%
14%
10%
7%
13%
67%
12%
Apple Pay
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
0%
Google Wallet
1%
0%
0%
1%
2%
2%
1%
3%
2%
1%
0%
0%
Other
5%
17%
1%
2%
2%
1%
2%
4%
1%
0%
1%
5%
Payment
Type
10
F3. Approximately how much did you spend on [day] at [retail category]?/ F5. Which form of payment did you use for your purchases
on [day] at [retail category]?
Share of 2014 Thanksgiving Thru Cyber Monday Holiday Spend
Share of 2014 Holiday
Weekend Spend
In-Person
44%
56%
On-Line
• The majority of the 2014 Thanksgiving holiday weekend
spending was in-person with Home Goods and electronics
stores accounting for 51% of in-person shopping activity.
• Amazon dominates the on-line shopping category, accounting
for almost 50% of total on-line sales during the five day
Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
11
Share of
Total
Spend
(N=889)
Share of
Share of
Online
In-Person
Shopping Spend Shopping Spend
(N=889)
(N = 889)
Amazon.com
21%
49%
0%
Discount Store
21%
9%
31%
Department Store
14%
7%
20%
Electronics Store
13%
7%
17%
Home Goods Store
6%
2%
9%
Apparel Store
6%
4%
8%
Sporting Goods Store
4%
5%
3%
Health & Beauty Store
4%
3%
4%
Children's Store
3%
1%
4%
eBay
2%
6%
0%
Other
6%
8%
5%
F3. Approximately how much did you spend on [day] at [retail category]?/ Q7. And what portion of your holiday shopping this year is
likely to be spent on-line versus in-person at a store shopping?
Holiday Spend Expectations - Average spend per gift recipient
• While overall holiday spending intentions have only
increased by 2.65%, the average amount consumers
expect to spend “per person” increased by 26%.
• This pattern provides evidence that many consumers
have responded to their “flat” spending intentions
by purchasing more expensive gifts for fewer
recipients.
Total Holiday Season Average Spend
(N=1021)
$603
$619
2013
2014
Delta: +2.65%
Holiday Average Spend (Per Person)
(N=1021)
$53
2013
12
$67
2014
Delta: +26%
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday
Purchase Patterns
13
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Promotions
• Approximately three quarters of holiday shoppers considered the promotions offered by retailers to be in line
or better than their expectations. The balance of consumers reported equal levels of disappointment across
all five days in the extended Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
• Amazon and sporting good stores registered the highest levels of promotions considered “disappointing”
2014 Holiday Weekend Spend Distribution Indexed Against Total Market
Promotion/
Discount Evaluation
Total Market
(N=889)
Thanksgiving Day
(N=524)
Black Friday
(N=592)
Saturday
(N=284)
Sunday
(N=161)
Cyber Monday
(N=397)
Much Less Than
Expected
22%
22%
22%
22%
20%
24%
In-Line With
Expectation
62%
62%
63%
64%
66%
59%
Much More Than
Expected
15%
16%
15%
14%
13%
17%
Net Promotion
Evaluation
-7%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-7%
-7%
Promotion/ Total
Discount Evaluation (N=889)
Net Promotion Evaluation
14
-7%
Amazon.com Discount Store
Department
Store
Electronics
Store
Home Goods
Store
Apparel Store
Sporting Goods
Health &
Store
Beauty Store
Children's
Store
eBay
Other
(N=756)
(N=711)
(N=481)
(N=282)
(N=221)
(N=226)
(N=141)
(N=209)
(N=133)
(N=155)
(N=248)
-10%
-15%
-3%
-3%
-7%
2%
-9%
-5%
-10%
-5%
6%
Demographic Comparison: 2014 Holiday Weekend Shopping Promotion/Discount Evaluation
• The majority of demographic groups felt the holiday weekend shopping promotions and discounts were in-line with expectations with
the exception of Hispanics/Latinos, and those with children in the household.
Gender
Age
55+
(N=316)
White/
Caucasian
(N=672)
Black/ African
American
(N=91)
Asian
American/
Pacific Islander
(N=52)
Hispanic/
Latino
(N=94)
Other
(N=24**)
1.03
0.97
0.90
1.01
1.07
1.49
1.36
0.96
1.02
1.04
1.05
0.95
0.97
0.79
0.86
1.19
0.87
0.89
0.95
1.21
1.03
1.14
1.02
Total
Market
(N=889)
Male
(N=345)
Female
(N=544)
18-34
(N=189)
35-54
(N=384)
Much Less Than
Expected
22%
0.88
1.12
0.99
In-Line With
Expectation
62%
1.05
0.95
Much More Than
Expected
15%
0.98
1.02
Promotion/Disc
ount Evaluation
Ethnicity
Region
Total
Market
(N=889)
Northeast
(N=178)
Midwest
(N=198)
West
(N=203)
South
(N=310)
Children in HH
(N=369)
2+ Adults
(No Children)
(N=395)
Single
(N=125)
Less than $50K
(N=375)
$50K to less
than $100K
(N=344)
$100K or more
(N=170)
Much Less Than
Expected
22%
0.94
1.04
0.99
1.02
1.10
0.95
0.77
1.19
0.92
0.80
In-Line With
Expectation
62%
1.05
1.03
0.92
1.01
0.90
1.09
1.10
0.99
0.97
1.06
Much More Than
Expected
15%
0.90
0.84
1.33
0.91
1.26
0.70
0.93
0.78
1.24
1.06
Promotion/Disc
ount Evaluation
15
F6. Which of the following best describes your opinion regarding the discounts/promotions on [day] offered at [retail category]?
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Economic Well Being
2015 Financial Position Expectation
• Survey results suggest that more than a third of
consumers anticipate improving their financial
position in 2015.
(N=1021)
37%
55%
Improve
• Though counter intuitive, there was no discernable
influence of expected 2015 financial position over
2014 holiday spending patterns.
No Change
Decline
2013/2014 Holiday Spend Delta by
Expected 2015 Financial Position
40%
53%
16
8%
25%
68%
43%
47%
6%
7%
10%
Spend Increased
(N=488)
Spend Stayed The
Same
(N=104)
Spend Decreased
(N=265)
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Gender
$800
$619
$680
$560
$600
10%
$603 $640 $567
Total
$400
9%
Male
$200
30%
22%
2013 Spend
20%
20%
% Expecting Financial Decline in 2015
25%
26%
25%
24%
24%
10%
0%
23%
22%
% Promotions Less Than Expected
24%
% Expecting to Increase Expected 2014 Holiday Budget
24%
20%
17%
19%
18%
12%
4%
7%
Amazon.com Apparel Store
17
8%
8%
2014 Spend
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
8%
8%
Female
$0
9%
9%
2% 3%
Children's
Store
3% 2%
Department Discount Store
Store
eBay
6%
Electronics
Store
3% 4%
6% 5%
4% 3%
Health And Home Goods
Sporting
Beauty Store
Store
Goods Store
5%
8%
Other
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Region
$1,000
$779
$680
$533$570
$748
$633
$534$567
$500
10%
Midwest
5%
South
0%
2014 Spend
23%
24%
9%
6%
2013 Spend
23%
21%
40%
22%
29%
25%
22%
21%
20%
18%
0%
20%
9%
20%
30%
9%
West
$0
22%
Northeast
25%
23% 24%
18%
19%
12%13%
10%
5%
7% 6% 6%
4%
12%
26%
24%
20%
15%
13%
9%
14%
10%
4% 3% 4% 5%
2% 2% 2% 4%
2% 3% 3%
8%
6% 4% 6%
6%
7% 8%
3% 4% 1%
6% 6%
0%
Amazon.com
18
Apparel Store Children's Store Department
Store
Discount Store
eBay
Electronics
Store
Health And
Beauty Store
Home Goods Sporting Goods
Store
Store
Other
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Income
$1,500.00
$1,036.47
$1,000.00
$500.00
$681.13
$385.20
$940.77
$674.85
$400.60
9%
9%
8%
8%
<$50,000
$50,000-$99,999
$100,000+
$0.00
2014 Spend
40%
27%
20%
8%
2013 Spend
21%
40%
18%
22%
27%
25%
20%
0%
21%22%23%
16%16%
11%
20%
10%
8%
0%
30%
9%
6% 7% 5%
29%
21%
15%
15%
10%10%
4% 2% 3%
3% 2% 3%
Amazon.com Apparel Store Children's Store Department Discount Store
Store
eBay
4% 4% 3%
4%
7% 6%
3% 2%
6%
7% 7% 5%
0%
19
Electronics
Store
Health And
Beauty Store
Store
Store
Other
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Age
$712.66
$800.00
$600.00
$678.09
$653.71
$481.90
$473.53
15%
$634.82
10%
18-34
$400.00
35-54
$200.00
7%
5%
3%
55+
$0.00
0%
2014 Spend
24%
2013 Spend
22%
20%
20%
22%
22%
34%
40%
23%
23%
21%
20%
0%
30%
20%
13%
26%
22%24%
17%
12%
7% 8%
10%
2%
16%15%
19%
23%
15%
12%
4% 4% 3%
4% 2% 2%
4% 3% 2%
12%
9%
6% 6% 5%
3% 5% 3%
3% 4%
0%
Amazon.com
20
Store
Discount Store
eBay
Electronics
Store
Health And
Beauty Store
Store
Store
Other
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Household Configuration
$1,000
$764
$581
$500
15%
$750
11%
$567
$397
10%
Single
$371
2+ Adults (No Children)
5%
0%
2014 Spend
2013 Spend
30%
21%
17%
20%
25%
40%
33%
21%
20%
10%
0%
12%
0%
26%
23%
21%22%
15%16%13%
6% 4%
Amazon.com
21
6%
Children In HH
$0
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
6%
21%
17%
15%
14%
8%
7%
% 2%
4%
Store
2% 3% 2%
Discount Store
eBay
Electronics
Store
4% 4% 3%
Health And
Beauty Store
4% 5% 6%
3% 3% 4%
Store
Store
8%
11%
3%
Other
Factors Influencing 2014 Holiday Purchase Patterns: Race
$1,000
$851
$623
$554 $572
$752
$615
$540 $561
White/Caucasian
15%
Hispanic/Latino
10%
10%
$500
$0
2014 Spend
5%
Asian American/Pacific
Islander
0%
31%
22%
28%
20%
0%
20%
34%
24%
0%
30%
5%
2%
40%
22%
20%
4%
33%
40%
20%
2013 Spend
Black/African American
25%23% 24%
18%
7% 6% 6%
5%
10%
19%
13% 12%
12%
26%
24%
15%
20%
4% 2% 3% 3%
13%
14%
9% 10%
2% 2% 2% 4%
4% 3% 4% 5%
8%
6% 4% 6%
6%
3% 4% 1%
7% 8% 6% 6%
0%
Amazon.com
22
Apparel Store Children's Store Department Discount Store
Store
eBay
Electronics
Store
Health And
Beauty Store
Store
Store
Other

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