Tree breeding as a tool to minimize possible adverse effects of

Tree breeding as a tool to minimize possible adverse effects of

INVESTMENT IN YOUR FUTURE
Tree breeding as a tool to
minimize possible adverse
effects of climate change on
forest trees
ARIS JANSONS
[email protected]
Tours, 22.05.2012.
Predicted climate changes
2021-2050
monthly mean t0
April
Bethers u.c., 2010
October
Predicted climate changes
Bether et al., 2010
The predictions are that we will have a bumpy ride ahead
Because trees will have to adapt to rather sharp
changes in environment
Resistance
Scots pine resistance to needle cast
(Lophodermium seditiosum Minter, Staley & Millar)
Grade 5
Percents of
Grade damaged
needles
1
0-5%
2
6-35%
3
36-65%
4
66-95%
5
96-100%
Grade 1
Assessments were made in June in three sets of trials:
• geographical provenance trial in 8th growing season
• open-pollinated progeny trial of Latvia's Scots pine plus trees
in 4th and 5th growing season
• open-pollinated progenies of Latvia's Scots pine plus trees in
nursery in 3d growing season
Needle cast damage grade
• Negligible differences in needle cast damage grade among
geographical provenance regions (Germany, Poland, Latvia)
• Trial location played a significant role in determination of
needle cast damage grade: disease was more pronounced in
Liepaja and Zvirgzde than in Kalsnava.
Jansons et al., 2012
Significant influence on height increment and survival and
significant differences among local provenances and families
were found
Needlecast damage,
Popu-
Trait
lation
Ūķene
3
4
5
increment, cm
23
21
20
18
α>0.05
survival, %
83
79
75
73
α>0.05
25
26
22
22
α>0.05
87
86
84
84
α>0.05
increment, cm
27
23
19
α<0.01
survival, %
88
80
65
α<0.01
survival, %
Misa
Significance
2
Smiltene increment, cm
Tukums
grades
increment, cm
27
23
20
18
α<0.01
survival, %
90
79
72
56
α<0.01
Jansons et al., 2008
Proportion of trees, %
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2
3
2
4
2
3
4
5
2
3
4
3
4
Needlecast damage grade
5
3
4
5
5
Differences in resistance are relative stable in time (family mean
correlation for degree of damages rfam=0.77) and space
(provenance mean correlation among 3 test sites r=0.71-0.77,
site x provenance interaction non-significant; family mean
correlation between two sites for tree height and for needle cast
damages rfam=0.43)
Jansons et al., 2012
Resistance
Influence of disease tend to have a cumulative effect
Family mean
correlation between
needle cast damage
and growth
0,00
-0,10
-0,20
-0,30
height
height incremant
-0,40
-0,50
-0,60
Jansons, unpublished
Resistance
Formation of lamas growth
Resistance
45
Number of families
40
35
30
25
2010
2011
20
15
10
5
0
0
0-5%
5 - 10 % 10 - 15 % 15 - 20 % > 20 %
Proportion of trees with lamas growth
12
35
10
30
25
8
20
with
15
Av_t
without
6
Max_t
4
10
2
Min_t
5
0
0
10.06.
17.06.
22.06.
30.06.
07.07.
15.07.
23.07.
27.07.
11.08.
02.06.
10.06.
17.06.
22.06.
30.06.
07.07.
15.07.
23.07.
27.07.
35
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
30
25
20
with
15
Av_t
10
5
0
02.06.
08.06.
16.06.
22.06.
30.06.
06.07.
13.07.
20.07.
23.05.
02.06.
08.06.
16.06.
22.06.
30.06.
06.07.
13.07.
without
Max_t
Min_t
Resistance
Trees with lamas growth tend to
have longer height increment
Height increment, cm
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
with
without
∆h2011
with
without
∆h2010
with
without
∆h2009
Resistance
Families with higher proportion of trees with lamas
growth does not tend to have larger height increment
700
0,45
Height increment, mm
600
R² = 0,0028
500
0,4
0,35
R² = 0,02
400
0,3
0,25
300
0,2
0,15
200
0,1
100
0,05
0
0
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55
Proportion of trees with lamas growth
0,5
delta2010
delta2011
augusti_2010
Linear (delta2010)
Linear (delta2011)
Growth
Height incriment per day, mm
Mean temperature per period,
oC
Influence of meteorological conditions on
height increment of hybrid aspen
25
20
15
10
5
0
24.05. 28.05. 07.06. 14.06. 21.06. 29.06. 06.07. 12.07. 19.07. 30.07. 10.08. 1.09. 17.09. 28.09. 5.10.
Date
Hincr*10
Average temperature
Strong significant correlation (r=0,87) found between growth intensity and
daily mean temperature.
Zeps, Jansons, 2012
Growth
Slight differences among groups of clones and separate clones found
Height increment per day,
mm
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
24.05. 28.05. 07.06. 14.06. 21.06. 29.06. 06.07. 12.07. 19.07. 30.07. 10.08.
Early
Average
1.09.
17.09. 28.09. 05.10.
Late
Zeps, Jansons, 2012
Choice of right trait(s)
for selection is crucial
Phenotypic selection of
clones based on height
growth and quality does
not necessarily yield an
improvement of
resistance of growth
pattern
As there are uncertainties in predictions any
last-minute changes in deployment zones of
seed orchard progenies can (shall) be made
just prior to their use in plant production
INVESTMENT IN YOUR FUTURE
Study has been carried out in project
“Importance of Genetic Factors in
Formation of Forest Stands with High
Adaptability and Qualitative Wood
Properties” (Contract Nr.
2009/0200/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/09/APIA/VIAA/146)
With the inspiration
from and discussion
within COST network
Don't miss the target!
Thank You !
Aris Jansons
[email protected]