La-Z-Boy Incorporated - University of Oregon Investment Group
Transcription
La-Z-Boy Incorporated - University of Oregon Investment Group
UNIVERSITY OF OREGON INVESTMENT GROUP April 30, 2010 Consumer Goods La-Z-Boy Incorporated BUY Stock Data Price (52 weeks) Symbol (Exchange) Beta Standard Error of Beta Shares Outstanding Average daily volume (3 month average) $1.81 – $15.46 LZB (NYSE) 2.05 .335 51.55 million 771,965 Current market cap $748.96 million Valuation (per share) DCF Analysis Comparables Analysis Target Price Current Price (as of 4/29/10) 17.17 17.31 17.24 14.01 Summary Financials Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Earnings/Diluted Share Q3 Ended 1/23/10 305.09 million 10.97 million 22.69 million $0.21 BUSINESS OVERVIEW La-Z-Boy Incorporated (LZB) is the most recognized name in the furniture industry. The Company manufactures, markets, imports, distributes and sells upholstery products and casegoods (wood) furniture. LZB operates in three segments—the Upholstery Group, the Casegoods Group and the Retail Group—and is the largest reclining-chair manufacturer in the world and one of North America’s largest manufacturers of upholstered furniture. According to the May, 2009 top 100 ranking by industry trade publication Fortune Today, the La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries® network of stores comprises the industry’s largest single-branded upholstered furniture retailer in North America, as well as the third largest manufacturer/distributor of residential furniture, as measured by annual sales volume. The Covering Analyst: Adam Block Email: [email protected] The University of Oregon Investment Group (UOIG) is a student run organization whose purpose is strictly educational. Member students are not certified or licensed to give investment advice or analyze securities, nor do they purport to be. Members of UOIG may have clerked, interned or held various employment positions with firms held in UOIG’s portfolio. In addition, members of UOIG may attempt to obtain employment positions with firms held in UOIG’s portfolio. La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu Company owns 68 La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries® retail locations, plus another 222 La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries® stores which are independently owned and operated. In addition, LZB supports certain independent dealers who cannot sufficiently carry out their business activities without the Company’s financial support. These dealers are referred to as Variable Interest Entities (VIE). Floral City Furniture was founded in 1927, incorporated in Michigan in 1941, and was renamed to La-Z-Boy Incorporated in 1996. The Company is based in Monroe, Michigan. BUSINESS MODEL AND REVENUE BREAKDOWN In addition to the Furniture Galleries®, the Company also sells their products through proprietary distribution spaces called ComfortStudios, which are areas within a larger retailer that are dedicated to showcasing La-Z-Boy furniture. At the end of fiscal 2009, LZB had 466 ComfortStudios and they expect to open approximately 30 more during fiscal 2010. A few of La-Z-Boy’s smaller operating segments—Kincaid, England and Lea—also have similar in-store gallery spaces. The company’s principal operating segments are the Upholstery Group, the Casegoods Group, and the Retail Group. Upholstery Group. In terms of revenue, the Company’s largest segment is the Upholstery Group, which entails the manufacturing and sales of upholstered furniture to furniture retailers and proprietary stores. This group includes La-Z-Boy, the Company’s largest operating unit, as well as Bauhaus and England. Upholstered furniture includes recliners and motion furniture, sofas, loveseats, chairs, ottomans, sleeper sofas, sectionals and modulars. 2 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu Casegoods Group. This group primarily markets and distributes manufactured or imported wood furniture to furniture retailers. Products include tables, chairs, entertainment centers, headboards, dressers, accent pieces and some coordinated upholstered furniture. Operations in the Casegoods Group are American Drew/Lea, Hammary and Kincaid. Retail Group. The Retail Group primarily sells upholstered furniture to end consumers through the company’s retail network. Operations in the Retail Group consist of 68 company-owned La-Z-Boy Furniture Galleries® located in eight markets throughout the Midwest and East Coast of the United States. BUSINESS AND GROWTH STRATEGIES La-Z-Boy is committed to greatly reducing manufacturing costs and to improving their speed to market. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008, the Company enacted a restructuring plan to consolidate all of their North American cutting and sewing operations in Mexico and transfer production from their Tremonton, Utah plant to their five La-Z-Boy manufacturing facilities. Their Utah facility ceased operations during the first quarter of fiscal 2009 and production at their Mexican facility began in January 2009. By the end of fiscal 2010 the Company expects 75% to 80% of their domestic cutting and sewing operations to be shifted to their Mexican facility, with the remainder in 2011. All of the Company’s cut and sewn parts will be supplied from their Mexican facility or from suppliers in China given the lower labor costs in these areas. LZB hopes these cost saving moves will improve their competitiveness and expects to see the full benefit of this plan beginning in fiscal 2011. In addition, LZB also reduced their employment by approximately 850 people company-wide to be more in line with sales volume and the current economic environment. The Company believes the reduction in employment alone will result in savings of $25 million to $30 million annually. They are also concentrated on keeping inventories in line with today’s demand to further reduce operating expenses. RECENT NEWS March 1, 2010 (Yahoo!Finance)—Manufacturing Dips But Still Strong A manufacturing survey by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) lists industries that are doing well and ones that are not doing so well in the manufacturing economy. The ISM reports that two industries consistently show up as being weak: wood products and furniture. With a slowdown in the rate of both new and used home sales, the furniture industry has lost one of its main drivers. When people purchase a home, they tend to decorate. Weak home sales mean slow sales for firms like La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen. February 17, 2010 (Forbes)—Profits Rouse La-Z-Boy Shares La-Z-Boy posted better-than-expected third-quarter performance. The Company beat the estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, who predicted profits of 19 cents per share on sales of $301.4 million. The Company said it earned $11 million, or 21 cents per share, in its fiscal third quarter, compared with a loss of $64.5 million, or $1.25 per share in the year-ago period when the earnings were negatively impacted by a $60.5 million charge for asset impairments and restructuring. Earnings in the most recent quarter included a 1 cent per share restructuring charge, and a $4.4 million, or 5 cents per share, gain on anti-dumping duties received on imports of wood bedroom furniture from China. Sales for the quarter ending Jan. 23, 2010 hit $305.09 million, up 5.7% from $288.6 million. Shares rose 96 cents, or 8.3%, to $12.60. The company’s fastest-growing division in the third quarter was its upholstery segment, 3 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu with sales rising 11% year-over-year. Raymond James analyst Budd Bugatch says he increased his 2010 expectations for La-Z-Boy after the company's surprisingly solid results. Bugatch expects a 7.7% sales increase, incorporating expected savings from the company's Mexican cut and sew operation. INDUSTRY PRIMARY INFLUENCES Disposable Income. The Household Furniture Manufacturing in the US PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE INCOME & FORECASTS industry is highly influenced by the condition of the economy. In particular, consumer spending is the most important influence to industry performance. A number of economic conditions affect the level of consumer spending, including general business conditions, uncertainty in the housing and credit markets, consumer debt, interest rates, taxation, unemployment levels, and disposable income. Household disposable income is a key demand determinant for the quantity and quality of home furniture purchases. The subprime mortgage collapse and high unemployment have caused economic uncertainty and a decline in discretionary spending, resulting in a drop in demand for household furniture and an overall decline in industry performance. Fortunately, based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, analysts expect per capita disposable income in the US to improve by 1.3% in 2011 and will continue to annually increase over the next five years at an average rate of 1.5%. This positive change will improve consumer confidence and promote demand for furniture items. Consumer Sentiment. Consumer sentiment affects consumers' perceptions of economic wellbeing. When sentiment is high, the overall demand for consumer goods improves, including the demand for furniture products. Due to the current economic environment, consumers have become pessimistic, reducing retail sales overall, but especially for more expensive and high-end items like furniture. The University of Michigan— collectively with Reuters—conducts a monthly telephone survey of consumer confidence called the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) that gathers information on consumer expectations regarding the overall state of the economy. The MCSI Surveys of Consumers website reports that the survey ―is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous U.S. an equal probability of being selected.‖ As the chart above indicates, consumer sentiment weakened significantly from middle 2007 to middle 2009, but appears to be recovering. Overall, the data seems to indicate that consumers anticipate the economy to improve. Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin expects inflation adjusted personal 4 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu consumption expenditures to increase by 1.9% in 2010. Despite the small scale of these economic improvements, the rise in consumer confidence will help increase demand for products offered by LZB and will benefit industry performance overall. Housing Market. The housing market is another significant demand determinant for furniture products. Expectations of a slow housing market recovery should translate to slightly increasing demand for furniture products. As homeownership continues to rise, sales in the furniture industry will also improve. Imports. Industry revenue has significantly decreased due to increasing penetration of low-priced imports, particularly from China. This price competition with international producers has reduced the profitability of many manufacturers by forcing them to keep prices low and to absorb more costs. LZB is in a good position to cope with the overseas competition by consolidating their manufacturing processes to Mexico and China, which will lower their costs, help them remain competitive and improve their profitability. The success of La-Z-Boy’s business depends on the same factors that influence the industry as a whole. The current economic conditions have created an unprecedented weakness in the retail environment, which is having a negative impact on the Company’s Retail Group. To counteract the loss of revenue from poor retail sales, LZB continues to modify their cost structure in their Retail division to reduce their operating expenses. The industry is predicted to experience a slight recovery in 2011 and 2012 as economic conditions improve. The increasing competition from imports will force many small businesses to exit the market. Over the five years to 2015, revenue is anticipated to decrease at an average annualized rate of 0.1% and the number of firms is expected to drop at an average annualized rate of 1%. As one of the most established firms in the industry, I expect La-Z-Boy to weather the storm and ultimately benefit from the reduction in competition. As more furniture manufacturers are forced to leave the market, LZB’s market share will grow. KEY PLAYERS Competition in the industry is high and the domestic market is fully saturated. Ashley Furniture Industries, Inc. and Furniture Brands International, Inc. are the two biggest players in the industry, accounting for slightly more than 16% of revenue. Other relatively large players in the industry are La-Z-Boy and Ethan Allen Interiors, Inc. which combine for an estimated 7% of market share. Due to falling sales and pinched profits, many smaller furniture producers are left with little opportunity and are being acquired by larger corporations as an alternative to exiting the market altogether. 5 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu S.W.O.T. ANALYSIS STRENGTHS Brand Awareness. La-Z-Boy is the most recognized name in the furniture industry and is the leading reclining-chair manufacturer in the world. Their reputation makes them a familiar and trusted name worldwide. Freight Contracts. The company has contracts with freight forwarders (companies that organize shipments for individuals or other companies) that permit favorable shipping rates based on volume. Exchange Rate Forwards. The Company has historically entered into forward foreign currency exchange contracts to limit their exposure to changes in exchange rates. However, LZB had no forward contracts as of April 25, 2009. WEAKNESSES Luxury Products. Furniture is a high-end luxury good, so demand for the Company’s products can be highly volatile, especially during times of economic turmoil. Lack of Diversification. The Company’s only business is producing and distributing furniture, so they have little to no diversification to mitigate the losses that occur during times of decreased demand for luxury goods. OPPORTUNITIES Disposable Income Improvement. As the economy recovers, the unemployment rate will decrease and per capita disposable income will likely improve as well. When this occurs, consumers will be more willing to spend their money on LZB’s products. Mergers. Due to increasing competition and reduced profits, many smaller furniture producers face little opportunity, creating a high potential for mergers. As a well established producer with the third highest market share, LZB could benefit from the acquisition of a smaller firm. ∙Note: The Company 10-K does not mention any plans for acquisitions. However, this may change if the opportunity arises. Housing Market Improvement. As housing starts begin to increase with the recovery of the economy, demand for furniture products will improve. THREATS Foreign Government Regulation. Due to increased reliance on foreign sourcing of their products, the company is more vulnerable to potentially adverse actions by foreign governments. Changes to laws, regulations and policies related to trade barriers, taxation and labor would significantly impact the Company’s operations. Commodity Price Fluctuations. Fluctuations in the price and availability of wood, fabrics, leathers, upholstered filling material, steel, and other raw materials used in manufacturing could increase cost of sales. LZB has a higher concentration in upholstery sales (73%) than most of their competitors, making them more vulnerable to price and quantity fluctuations of steel, polyurethane foam and fabric than most other furniture companies. Limited Suppliers. The Company relies on a limited number of major suppliers for their raw materials. The majority of the Company’s cut and sewn leather sets are purchased from one supplier in China. If any of these suppliers encounter financial or other difficulties LZB could experience temporary disruptions in their manufacturing process. Increasing Competition. During the past couple of years there has been an increase in competition in the Company’s retail markets. Companies such as Costco, Home Depot, IKEA, Sam’s Club, Target, and Wal-Mart are now offering products that compete with some of LZB’s product lines. 6 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu PORTER’S 5 FORCES ANALYSIS Supplier Power Considering the majority of the Company’s cut and sewn leather sets are purchased from one supplier in China, the degree of supplier power is high. Importing materials from abroad is an effective way of cutting costs; however, depending on one supplier presents significant disadvantages. With few suppliers for furniture producers to choose from, the bargaining power of the single Chinese supplier is very high, leaving LZB vulnerable to price manipulation. At the same time, the high number of firms in the industry presents Chinese exporters with plenty of alternatives if business with one firm goes sour. This independence further strengthens supplier power. Barriers to Entry Barriers to entry in this industry are high. The time and resources that is required to establish an effective distribution network between suppliers, retailers, etc. may deter potential producers from entering the market. Producers must form relationships with manufactures and suppliers of a vast variety of materials, including lumber, fiberboard, metals, adhesive, fabrics, leathers, filling materials, etc. These relationships take time, patience and reputation to establish. In addition, the top five players account for over 30% of industry revenue, posing a significant challenge for new producers trying to gain market share. Entering this market also requires significant start-up capital for manufacturing facilities. Buyer Power The bargaining power of customers is fairly low. The high number of furniture producers in the industry presents the consumers with many alternatives to choose from. However, La-Z-Boy has the advantage of strong brand identity. As the largest reclining-chair manufacturer in the world and one of North America’s largest manufacturers of upholstered furniture, the Company has an established reputation which affords them power and mitigates much of the customers’ buying power. In this industry, customers are generally price takers. Threat of Substitutes The threat of substitutes is high in this industry. The industry is saturated with furniture producers and product differentiation between firms is relatively insignificant. Degree of Rivalry Taking the industry forces into account, the degree of rivalry in the furniture manufacturing industry is high. COMPARABLES ANALYSIS Companies used in the comparables analysis share similar exposure in the home furniture products industry and either closely or directly compete with La-Z-Boy. La-Z-Boy, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH), Furniture Brands International Inc. (FBN), Hooker Furniture Corp. (HOFT), and Bassett Furniture Industries Inc. (BSET) are five publicly traded competitors that directly compete for market share. All five of these companies offer similar products and have comparable characteristics. Despite varying market caps, debt positions and beta coefficients, these companies compete with LZB for the same customers and face very similar risks and opportunities. After closely reviewing these companies, I found ETH, FBN, and HOFT to be La-Z-Boy’s purest competitors due to very similar business operations and decided to weight them equally at 30%. In contrast, Bassett Furniture Industries also 7 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu operates in an investment/real estate segment uncommon to LZB and its other competitors, which led me to weight BSET less heavily at 10%. COMPANIES (company information obtained from Yahoo!Finance) ETHAN ALLEN INTERIORS INC. (ETH: NYSE) WEIGHT: 30% ―Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, sourcing, sale, and distribution of various home furnishings and accessories, as well as related marketing and brand awareness efforts in the United States. The company also markets home furnishings and accessories to consumers through a network of company-owned design centers. Its products include beds, dressers, armoires, tables, chairs, buffets, entertainment units, home office furniture, and wood accents. The company also offers upholstery home furnishing items, such as sleepers, recliners, chairs, sofas, loveseats, cut fabrics, and leather, as well as home accessory and other items, including window treatments, wall decor, lighting, clocks, bedding and bedspreads, decorative accessories, area rugs, and home and garden furnishings. As of June 30, 2009, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. operated through 293 retail design centers comprising 159 company-owned and operated centers, and 134 independentlyowned and operated centers. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Danbury, Connecticut.‖ FURNITURE BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC. (FBN: NYSE) WEIGHT: 30% ―Furniture Brands International, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, and retails home furnishings. It offers case goods, including bedroom, dining room, and living room furniture products; stationary upholstery products comprising sofas, loveseats, sectionals, and chairs; motion upholstered furniture products consisting of recliners and sleep sofas; occasional furniture products, such as accent pieces, home entertainment centers, and home office furniture products, as well as wood, metal, and glass tables; and decorative accessories. The company markets its products under the Broyhill, Lane, Thomasville, Drexel Heritage, Henredon, Hickory Chair, Pearson, Laneventure, and Maitland-Smith brand names. Furniture Brands International sells its products through a network of independently owned furniture retailers, national and regional department stores and chains, and trade showrooms, as well as through various retail channels, including mass merchant stores, single-branded stores, independent dealers, and specialized interior designers. As of December 31, 2009, it operated 37 stores. The company was founded in 1836 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.‖ HOOKER FURNITURE CORP. (HOFT: NYSE) WEIGHT: 30% ―Hooker Furniture Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, imports, develops, and markets residential wood, metal, and upholstered furniture products in North America. The company offers wood furniture products, including home entertainment, home office, accent, dining, bedroom, and bath furniture under the Hooker Furniture brand; and youth furniture under the Opus Designs by Hooker brand. It also offers motion and stationary leather furniture, and occasional chairs. The company also offers various residential leather and fabric upholstered furniture under the Bradington-Young upholstery brand; specializes in leather reclining and motion 8 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu chairs, sofas, club chairs, and executive desk chairs; and offers upscale occasional chairs under the Sam Moore upholstery brand. It serves retailers of residential home furnishings, including independent furniture stores, specialty retailers, department stores, catalog merchants, interior designers, and national and regional retail chains. The company was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Martinsville, Virginia.‖ BASSETT FURNITURE INDUSTRIES INC. (BSET: NYSE) WEIGHT: 10% ―Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and retail of branded home furnishings in the United States. It operates in three segments: Wholesale, Retail, and Investments/Real Estate. The Wholesale segment designs, manufactures, sources, sells, and distributes furniture products to a network of Bassett Furniture Direct (BFD) or Bassett Home Furnishings (BHF) stores, including independently-owned stores, company-owned retail stores, and partnership licensees; and independent furniture retailers. This segment also involves in wood and upholstery operations. The Retail segment operates 43 company-owned stores and 61 licensee-owned stores in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Missouri, Mississippi, Illinois, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The Investments/Real Estate segment holds interest in the Bassett Industries Alternative Asset Fund, a portfolio of marketable securities; an investment in the International Home Furnishings Center; and retail real estate utilized by licensee operated BFD and BHF stores. The company was founded in 1902 and is based in Bassett, Virginia.‖ METRICS In my comparables analysis I used EV/Gross Profit, EV/Revenue, and EV/OCF as my metrics. EV/Revenue was chosen to compare total revenue streams generated by each firm, while accounting for overall company size. Assuming that the four companies that I have chosen are indeed comparable to LZB, this will tell me what LZB’s EV/Revenue metric is actually worth. I decided to use EV/Gross Profit to evaluate how efficiently management uses labor and materials in the production process. Finally, EV/OCF was used to compare how well each company produces operating cash flows. Again, these ratios should indicate what La-Z-Boy’s EV/Gross Profit and EV/OCF metrics should be trading at. After applying these metrics in the evaluation of LZB, I came to an implied price of $17.31. With a current price of $14.00, my comparables analysis determined LZB is undervalued by 23.61%. DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS BETA An initial beta of 2.30 was derived using a standard five-year monthly regression against the S&P 500. However, this derivation yielded a standard error of .810, which I felt was unsatisfactory. In response, 2- and 3-year weekly regressions were run. After considering the results of both regressions, I adopted the 2-year weekly regression, which yielded a beta coefficient of 2.05 with a standard error of .335. I am confident this beta is an accurate implication of the company’s sensitivity to fluctuations in the market. REVENUES After extensive research, it was determined that the Company’s revenue is greatly influenced by per capita disposable income, housing starts and overall industry revenue. These three variables, in addition to historical revenues for LZB, were used for a multi-variable regression analysis to produce a model to be used for revenue forecasts. To forecast 9 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu the Company’s yearly revenue, yearly data projections on per capita disposable income, housing starts and overall industry revenue was obtained from various sources and applied to the model. Relevant documents used to construct my revenue model are included in the appendix. COST OF DEBT The Company is able to select interest rates based on LIBOR or the prime rate. Their LIBOR spread fluctuates between 1.75% and 2.25% based on liquidity. During fiscal 2009 this spread was 2.0%. Their prime rate spread fluctuates between 0.0% and 0.5%, also based on liquidity. During fiscal year 2009 this spread was 0.25%. At April 25, 2009 the Company’s borrowing rates ranged from 2.5% to 3.5%. The 1 year LIBOR rate as of April 25, 2010 was .94%. Applying their fiscal 2009 spread, the company could reasonably barrow at a LIBOR-adjusted rate of 2.94%. The prime rate—as reported by the Wall Street Journal's bank survey—is 3.25%. Applying their fiscal 2009 spread, the company could reasonably barrow at a prime rate-adjusted rate of 3.5%. For my projections, I averaged these LIBOR- and prime rate-adjusted rates to determine the Company’s cost of debt. By doing so, I settled with a rate of 3.22%. TAX RATE Despite fluctuations in the Company’s effective tax rate over the past few years, I had no basis to change their tax rate from the statutory rate of 35%. CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Capital expenditures consist primarily of the expansion of production facilities. However, LZB is aggressively consolidating their operations in Mexico and explicitly states that the Company will limit capital expenditures to those necessary to improve productivity. They do not expect any major land or building additions will be needed to increase capacity in the foreseeable future. This was my basis for carrying a 1 percent capital expenditure growth rate through 2020. RECOMMENDATION My final recommendation is based on equal DCF and comparables analyses weightings. My DCF and comparables analyses yielded implied prices of $17.17 and $17.31, respectively. Using the 50/50 weighting, I reached a final target price of $17.24. The current market price for LZB as of market close April 29, 2010 was $14.01. This variance from my target price suggests the market has undervalued the company by 23.05%. Factors that influence the furniture industry—such as per capita disposable income, consumer sentiment and housing upstarts—are expected to slightly improve in the coming years. Though industry performance as a whole is anticipated to decrease until 2015 at an average annualized rate of 0.1%—despite brief recovery in 2011 and 2012—this loss in industry revenue is miniscule and I expect it will be fairly inconsequential to La-Z-Boy’s performance. As suggested previously, the pinching of profits during these years may even prove opportunistic for LZB as firms are forced to leave the market, creating room for La-Z-Boy to increase its market share. In addition, LZB may look to acquire struggling firms if the right opportunity presents itself. Based on my quantitative and qualitative analysis, I anticipate a promising future for La-ZBoy and recommend a BUY for all portfolios. 10 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu APPENDIX 1 – COMPARABLES ANALYSIS ¹EV = MARKET CAP + DEBT + PREFERRED SHARES – CASH AND EQUIVALENTS 11 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu APPENDIX 2 – DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS ANALYSIS 12 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu APPENDIX 3 – DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS ANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS APPENDIX 4 – BETA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 6 – BETA REGRESSION 13 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu APPENDIX 7 – REVENUE REVENUE vs. INDUSTRY 2400000 Revenue Back Testing 2400000 2000000 REVENUE 2000000 1600000 1200000 1600000 1200000 800000 800000 400000 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 REVENUEF REVENUE 400000 14 2.00E+07 2.50E+07 3.00E+07 3.50E+07 4.00E+07 INDUSTRY La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu FURNATURESPENDING 1700 INDUSTRY 4.00E+07 1600 3.60E+07 1500 3.20E+07 1400 2.80E+07 1300 2.40E+07 1200 1100 2.00E+07 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 REVENUE UPSTARTS 2400000 2400 2000000 2000 1600000 1600 1200000 1200 800000 800 400000 400 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 APPENDIX 8 – SOURCES 15 La-Z-Boy Inc. university of oregon investment group http://uoig.uoregon.edu ∙FactSet ∙Reuters ∙Sec.gov ∙Yahoo!Finance ∙ IBISWorld ∙Investopedia.com ∙―Surveys of Consumers—Thomson Reuters, University of Michigan‖ www.sca.isr.umich.edu/main.php ∙Bureau of Labor Statistics –Consumer Price Index www.bls.gov/cpi/ 16