- PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad

PETRONAS DAGANGAN BERHAD
YTD Sept 2011 ANALYST BRIEFING
24 November 2011
Il
Dahlia Room, Intercontinental Hotel,
Jalan Ampang, Kuala Lumpur.
CONTENT
1. Opening Remarks by En Rozaini M Sani,
General Manager of Finance Division
2. Financial Review for YTD Sept 2011
3. Business Performance Review for
YTD Sept 2011
4. Overview of Automatic Price Mechanism (APM)
5. Q&A
Financial Review For YTD Sept 2011
En Rozaini M Sani
General Manager
Finance Services Division
Key Events / Highlights
•
The global economy continued to face a challenging environment due to uncertainties in
financial markets, unfavourable fiscal conditions and weaknesses in labour markets in the
advanced economies .
•
The Malaysian economy registered a higher growth of 5.8% in Quarter 3, 2011 (2Q 11:
4.3%), due to stronger domestic demand.
•
Inflation rate rose to 3.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (2Q 11: 3.3%).
•
PDB achieved higher average selling prices (18.8%) and sales volume (14.7%) for year to
date 30 September 2011 as compared to same period last year.
•
PDB has announced another interim dividend of 15 sen per ordinary shares less 25% tax
amounting to RM111,763,575 in respect of quarter ended 30 September 2011.
I• l
The total interim dividend for FY2011 up until 30 September 2011 is 30 sen per ordinary
shares less tax at 25%
Key Financial Highlights
•
YTD 30/09/2011 vs YTD 30/09/2010
30/06/2010
•
As at 30/09/2011 vs As at 31/03/2011
COMPREHENSIVE INCOME
FINANCIAL POSITION
Revenue increased by 35.5% to RM14,844.9
million from RM10,952.8 million
Shareholders funds decreased by 2.6% to
RM4,668.9 million from RM4,794.9 million
Profit Before Tax increased by 29.7% to
RM591.2 million from RM 561.5 million
Cash balances decreased to RM664.5 million
compared to RM1,026.2 million
As at
31/03/2011
As at
30/09/2011
Earnings Per Share (sen)
87.5
87.1*
Return on Revenue (%)
5.2
3.9
Return on Equity (%)
19.1
18.1*
Key Ratios
Return on Total Assets (%)
14.3
13.4*
* Annualised based on year to date figures as at 30 September 2011
Gross Profit increased by 15.6% mainly contributed by the
increased in average margin for Mogas by 19.6% and Bitumen by
98.7%
LPG 36,011
6%
Gross
Profit
QE
30/09/11
(RM Mil)
+/(%)
564.3
15.6
LPG 49,677
10%
QE
30/09/10
(RM Mil)
Lube
27,831 5%
Others
33,838 6%
Fuel Oil 608
0%
Aviation
61,679 11%
Diesel
138,234
25%
488.3
Lube 25,406
5%
QE
30/09/11
Others
12,193 3%
Fuel Oil
5,249 1%
Aviation
49,602 10%
Mogas
211,354 43%
Diesel
134,812 28%
Mogas
266,094
47%
QE
30/09/10
Gross Profit increased by 15.6% mainly contributed by the increased in
average margin for Mogas by 19.6% and Bitumen by 98.7%
LPG 36,011
6%
Gross
Profit
QE
30/09/11
(RM Mil)
+/(%)
564.3
15.6
LPG 49,677
10%
QE
30/09/10
(RM Mil)
Lube
27,831 5%
Others
33,838 6%
Fuel Oil 608
0%
Aviation
61,679 11%
Diesel
138,234
25%
488.3
Lube 25,406
5%
QE
30/09/11
Others
12,193 3%
Fuel Oil
5,249 1%
Aviation
49,602 10%
Mogas
211,354 43%
Diesel
134,812 28%
Mogas
266,094
47%
QE
30/09/10
Profit before tax in Qtr 2, FY2011 improved by RM16.1 million as a result
higher gross profit but was reduced by higher OPEX and lower Other
Income
Profit Before Taxation
RM Mill'
310
RM Mill'
300.4
350
300
OPEX
301.4
300
284.3
290
Other Income
249.4
250
200
280
150
270
100
260
50
250
0
240
Qtr 2, FY2011
Qtr 2, FY10/11
37.3
45.3
Qtr 2, FY2011
Qtr 2, FY10/11
Shareholder’s funds and cash balance remain strong.
Shareholder’s Funds
RM Million
Cash Balance
RM Million
4,794.9
4,800.0
4,668.9
1200
1,026.5
4,700.0
1000
4,600.0
4,500.0
800
4,400.0
600
664.5
4,300.0
400
4,200.0
Il
200
4,100.0
4,000.0
31/03/2011
30/09/2011
0
31/03/2011
30/09/2011
Decrease in cash balance was mainly due to outstanding
subsidy receivables
Cash & Bank Balances
RM’Mill
1,500
1,437
1,350
1,200
1,145
1,015
1,050
1,020
900
875
538
678
621
479
450
0
870
836
666
653
300
1,026
880
826
751
600
1,026
912
863
750
I150
l
1,138
210
271
190
269
267
140
366
299
192
255
147
86
31.03.09 30.06.09 30.09.09 31.12.09 31.03.10 30.06.10 30.09.10 31.12.10 31.03.11 30.06.11 30.09.11
Cash and bank
Deposits
Total
PDB’s share continue to outperform KLCI
performance.
KLCI Index
RM per Share
1700
KLCI
PETDAG
17
1600
16.30
1500
1,422
1400
1,346
12.08
11.30
10.17
1,164
1200
1100
7.20
1000
7.40
7.90
8.35
870
9.27
8.95 8.85
1371.55
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
966
885
6.55
8.90 8.70
16
1518.91
15
1,319
1,173
800
1519.94
1491.25
1485.23
1,249
1300
Il
900
18
17.64
7
6
5
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Earning Per Share
100
87.5
90
75.8
80
64.5
70
60
87.1*
75.7
66.6
50.8
50
40
30
21.2
Earning Per Share
20
10
Il
FY2004/05 FY2005/06 FY2006/07 FY2007/08 FY2008/09 FY2009/10 FY2010/11
*Annualised based on quarter 2 financial results
PDB P/E
Market PE
FY
2005/06
7.99
13.15
FY
2006/07
9.53
16.07
FY
2007/08
12.01
13.29
FY
2008/09
13.57
13.68
FY
2009/10
11.96
18.86
FY 2011
FY
2010/2011
FY 2011
18.85
16.80
18.71
15.83
PDB’s dividend yield remain higher than market dividend
yield
8.00
6.70
7.00
6.50
6.13
6.00
5.00
5.63
4.64
4.93
5.70
5.00
4.88
4.77
5.02
3.90
4.00
3.90
3.73
3.00
3.99
3.38
3.45
3.36
2.83
2.00
Il
1.00
PDB Dividend Yield - With Special Dividend
PDB Dividend Yield - Without Special Dividend
Market Dividend Yield
0.00
FY2004/05 FY2005/06 FY2006/07 FY 2007/08 FY 2008/09 FY 2009/10 FY 2010/11 FY 2011
PDB has announced second interim dividend for FY2011
on 23rd November 2011
Sen per share
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
Final - Special
Final
Interim - Special
Interim
25
35
15
33
33
10
30
20
15
5
10
5
Il
Dividend Net
(RM)
Net Dividend
excluding special
dividend/ PAT (%)
(Payout)
10
30
12
12
30
15
FY2004/05
FY2005/06
FY2006/07
FY 2007/08
FY 2008/09
FY 2009/10 FY 2010/11
107,293
143,057
216,573
332,907
335,291
447,054
745,090
53%
29%
34%
51%
59%
45%
55%
PDB Total Shareholder Return as at 30 October 2011
Share Price (RM)
CAGR (with Dividend Reinvestment) – 19.12%
18.00
16.50
Share Price (RM')
16.00
16.30
14.00
On 24.02.05 Bonus
Issue at a ratio 1:1
12.00
9.05
10.00
8.00
7.95
8.00
6.65
6.00
4.00
7.00
6.50
5.13
4.82
4.28
2.80
3.56
4.18
6.15
5.60
4.02
3.65
3.98
2.00
4.06
Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar 23 24 Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Mar Sept
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Feb Feb 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 11
05 05
FY93/94 FY94/95 FY95/96 FY96/97 FY97/98 FY98/99 FY99/00 FY00/01 FY01/02 FY02/03 FY03/04 FY04/05 FY05/06 FY06/07 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY09/10 FY10/11 FY2011
No of Shares
(with Dividend 1,012
Reinvestment)
TSR (%)
1,050
1,067
1,097
1,134
1,1731
1,231
1,300
1,350
2,812
2,887
2,990
3,096
18 years
10 years
5 years
1.5 year
9 months
19.12
26.14
39.14
53.19
57.03
3,225
3,363
3,530
3,594
3,594
3,716
Thank you
Business Performance Review For YTD Sept 2011
En Ahmad Kushaini Ramli
Senior Manager, Strategic Planning Division
1. Malaysian Economic
2. Business Performance
3. Business Outlook and Key Focus Area
Sustained growth supported by continued strong domestic and
external demand
• According to BNM Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar, the growth in Q3 is expected to be better with improvements
seen in several indicators (e.g; industrial production)
• Malaysia reported an external trade surplus of RM9.6 billion in September 2011. While it grew significantly by
40.5% from the same month last year, on a month-to-month basis, it posted a decline of 12.3% from RM11 billion
due to cooling external demand.
•The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) remains encouraging, having inched up negligible 0.8 points in Q3. It is
likely that consumers are only cautiously optimistic, and even appeared somewhat restrained, as they continue to
watch the economic radar as attentively as, if not more, than before.
Source : CIRU-PETRONAS& BNM
Impressive volume growth despite moderate economics performance
YTD Volume
7,750.0
7,585.3
7,500.0
Mil Litres
7,250.0
7,000.0
6,750.0
6,613.2
6,500.0
14.7 %
6,250.0
6,000.0
SPLY
YTD Sept FY2011
• YTD Sept volume is above SPLY by 14.7% against SPLY.
• Growth in Q2 was mainly contributed by higher Diesel, Aviation, Fuel Oil, and LPG
sales.
RETAIL BUSINESS
COMMERCIAL BUSINESS
LPG BUSINESS
LUBRICANTS BUSINESS
Key achievement and activities from Sept – Nov FY2011
Achievement
 On 27 Sept 2011, PDB was awarded for 2nd Runner-up for The Best
Shareholders Return by Malaysian Business at the prestigious Prince Hotel &
Residence, Kuala Lumpur.
On 28 Sept 2011, Lumut Fuel Terminal has delivered its 1st ONE BILLION
LITER without LTI
Activities
 28 Oct 2011, Signing Ceremony for Lubricant Supply Contract between PDB
and Boon Siew Honda.
 28 Oct 2011, Grand Opening of our 1st Car Spa Outlet at PSS Jalan Masai.
 On 7 Oct 2011, PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad has invited the Formula One
driver Nico Rosberg, to surprise customers at its PETRONAS Mutiara
Damansara and PETRONAS TTDI stations
 On 1 Oct 2011, PDB Participated in iCapital.biz Bhd's Investor Day at the
Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre
 Sept 2011 PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad (PDB) kick-started the next phase
of the PETRONAS PRIMAX 95 Xtra campaign with the PETRONAS XTRA
Challenge targeting 300 customers nationwide over the three-month period.
Positive economic growth outlook for the future.
• Given fragile outlook of the US and Eurozone and with total exports contributing nearly 100% of the
country’s GDP. Malaysia is vulnerable to the recent global turmoil.
• Meanwhile, the implementation of ETP should continue to provide support for growth. PM Najib’s
recently announced a list of 13 new EPPs, which will bring total committed investment to RM 177.1
billion.
• Palaysia has performed well in wooing FDIs in H1 2011, having attracted RM21 billion vis-à-vis RM10
billion in same period last year. The higher inflow mirrored growing investor confidence, stemming from
the government initiatives to stimulate economic growth.
Source : CIRU-PETRONAS & BNM
Key Focus Area
• Retail Business
• Achieving market leadership
• Increasing throughput volume
• Opening new stations
• Commercial Business
• Maintain and strengthen market
leadership
• Focus on primary target market
and quality customers
• LPG Business
• Maintain market leadership
• Improve
on
product
network
availability and customer service
• Lube Business
• Aggressive market penetration
• Expand product range to include
fighting brand
Thank you
Overview of Automatic Price Mechanism (APM)
En Ahmad Kushaini Ramli
Senior Manager, Strategic Planning Dept
1. Overview
2. APM Objectives
3. APM Main Features
4. APM Components
5. APM Formula for Retail Products
6. APM Formula for Biodiesel Product
7. History of Retail APM Element Changes
8. History of Crude Oil & Petroleum Price Products
Trend
Established on 1 March 1983
Use to control retail prices to consumer for gasoline,
diesel and household LPG
 Selling prices to the industrial sectors are not
governed under the APM
Kerosene was removed from the APM in November
1994
Currently 2/3 of products sold in the market are
regulated

Ensure stability of prices and
supply

Control inflation

Allow adjustments in price to
accommodate the changes in
product cost and operating
expenses

Provide a predictable basis
for the oil companies to plan
and implement investments

APM governs fixed consumer retail prices

Different product costs are set for 3 anchor locations:
•
Kuala Lumpur (Peninsular Malaysia)
•
Kota Kinabalu (Sabah)
•
Kuching (Sarawak)

APM is subject to monthly, annual & occasional review

Any revisions to the components of APM is at the sole
discretion of the Government
Retail Products
Product Cost
Biodiesel
Product
•Mogas and Diesel - Average MOPS from 1st to the 30th
of the current month + Alpha
•LPG - Saudi Contract Price (CP) + USD 40/MT
•Mogas and Diesel - Average MOPS from 1st to the 30th
of the current month + Alpha
•LPG - Saudi Contract Price (CP) + USD 40/MT
•Diesel Price *95% Blend + PME Price*5% Blend
Marketing Cost
Cost associated directly with mogas, diesel and LPG incurred in head office
and depots
Transport Cost
Cost associated with ship / road tanker transport
Company Profit
To ensure sufficient returns to motivate long term orderly investment
Dealer’s
Commission
To ensure sufficient return for the operator/ dealer of the service station
Duty /
(Subsidy)
Balancing factor to achieve the desired retail price
Selling Price
Fixed by the Government
Variable Elements
Product Cost + α*
+
Marketing Cost
+
Distribution Cost
+
Dealer’s Commission
+
Company Profit
+
Duty or (Subsidy)
=
RETAIL PRICE
Fixed Elements
Note* : Product cost is based on
i) Monthly average MOPS for
Diesel and Mogas + α
ii) Saudi Contract Price +
USD40/M T for LPG
Elements
Product Cost
Diesel
Mogas (U97) Mogas (U95)
LPG
(sen/litre)
(sen/litre) (sen/litre)
(sen/kg)
249.92*
254.70*
248.36*
260.97*
Marketing Cost
6.92
6.92
6.92
21.82
Distribution Cost
2.62
2.62
2.62
17.13
Dealer Commission
7.00
12.19
12.19
21.42
Company Profit
2.25
5.00
5.00
11.35
(Subsidy)
(88.71)
1.43
(85.09)
(142.69)
Retail Price
180.00
280.00
190.00
190.00
Variable
Element
Fixed
Elements
Variable
Element
Note: *Product cost is based on average current MOPS + α (5 sen for Mogas and 4 sen for Diesel).
Saudi Contract Price + USD40/MT for LPG. The same formula is applied to other oil companies.
Product Cost (Diesel
Price*95% + PME Price*5%
Blend) + α*
+
Marketing Cost
Variable Elements
+
Distribution Cost
+
Dealer’s Commission
+
Company Profit
+
Duty or (Subsidy)
=
RETAIL PRICE
Fixed Elements
Note* : Product cost is based on
i) Monthly average MOPS for
Diesel and Mogas + α
ii) Saudi Contract Price +
USD40/M T for LPG
Elements
Product Cost
Diesel
(sen/litre)
Diesel Price * 95% Blend
+
PME Price * 5% Blend
253.90*
Marketing Cost
6.92
Distribution Cost
2.62
Dealer Commission
7.00
Company Profit
2.25
(Subsidy)
(92.69)
Retail Price
180.00
Note: *Product cost is based on average current MOPS + α (5 sen for Mogas and 4 sen for Diesel).
Saudi Contract Price + USD40/MT for LPG. The same formula is applied to other oil companies.
DEALER'S COMMISSION
DATE
From
From
From
From
From
From
1983
1988
1994
2002
28 Feb 2006
25 Jun 2008
MOGAS
(sen/ltr)
4.72
5.18
6.18
8.00
9.50
12.19
DIESEL
(sen/ltr)
2.24
2.27
2.97
3.50
4.50
7.00
3.30
4.45
5.00
no change
1.30
1.75
2.25
no change
COMPANY'S MARGIN
From
From
From
From
1983
1994
28 Feb 2006
25 Jun 2008
History of Retail APM Element Change
Date
RON 97
RON 95
RON 92
Diesel
LPG
(RM/ltr)
(RM/ltr)
(RM/ltr)
(RM/ltr)
(RM/kg)
1990
1.05
-
0.96
0.57
1.18
01-Jan-91
1.05
-
1.06
0.65
1.18
01-Dec-91
1.13
-
1.06
0.65
1.18
01-Jan-94
1.10
-
1.06
0.65
1.18
01-Oct-00
1.20
-
1.16
0.70
1.28
20-Oct-01
1.30
-
1.26
0.80
1.28
16-Nov-01
1.30
-
1.26
0.70
1.28
01-May-02
1.32
-
1.28
0.72
1.29
01-Nov-02
1.33
-
1.29
0.74
1.31
01-Mar-03
1.35
-
1.31
0.76
1.33
01-May-04
1.37
-
1.33
0.78
1.35
01-Oct-04
1.42
-
1.38
0.83
1.40
01-Mar-05
no change
-
no change
0.88
no change
05-May-05
1.52
-
1.48
1.08
no change
31-Jul-05
1.62
-
1.58
1.28
1.45
28-Feb-06
1.92
-
1.88
1.58
1.75
05-Jun-08
2.70
-
2.62
2.58
no change
23-Aug-08
2.55
-
2.40
2.50
no change
25-Sep-08
2.45
-
2.30
2.40
no change
15-Oct-08
2.30
-
2.20
2.20
no change
01-Nov-08
2.15
-
2.05
2.05
no change
18-Nov-08
2.00
-
1.90
1.90
no change
03-Dec-08
1.90
-
1.80
1.80
no change
16-Dec-08
1.80
-
1.70
1.70
no change
12-May-09
1.80
1.75
1.70
1.70
no change
01-Sep-09
2.05
1.80
discontinued
1.70
no change
16-Jul-10
2.10
1.85
discontinued
1.75
no change
01-Aug-10
no change
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
01-Sep-10
no change
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
01-Oct-10
no change
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
01-Nov-10
no change
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
03-Nov-10
2.15
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
01-Dec-10
2.30
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
04-Dec-10
no change
1.90
discontinued
1.80
1.90
01-Jan-11
no change
no change
discontinued
no change
no change
no change
05-Jan-11
2.40
no change
discontinued
no change
01-Feb-11
2.50
no change
discontinued
no change
02-Apr-11
2.70
no change
discontinued
no change
05-May-11
2.90
no change
discontinued
no change
16-June-11
2.80
no change
Discontinued
no change
no change
Slide 64
no change
no change
No change
180.00
160.00
140.00
120.00
US$/BBL
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
Crude Oil ( WTI)
Ron 97
Ron 95
Diesel
Jet A1
THANK YOU
Back-up slides
Sample : Different product costs are set for 3 anchor
locations
DATE
ULG95
MSEN/LTR
ULG97
MSEN/LTR
Diesel 0.05% S
MSEN/LTR
LPG
MSEN/KG:
1 PRODUCT COST Sen/Litre
2 OPEX RECOVERY (Msen/L/KG):
Marketing Cost
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
Freight & Distribution Cost
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
3 DLRS COMMISSION (Msen/L/KG):
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
4 CO MARGIN (Msen/L/KG):
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
6
PUMP PRICE/SELLING PRICE(Msen/L/KG):
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
253.67
257.49
272.06
281.29
6.92
6.36
5.51
6.92
6.92
6.92
6.92
6.36
5.51
21.82
27.22
20.34
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
2.62
17.13
25.88
31.92
12.19
12.19
12.19
12.19
12.19
12.19
7
7
7
21.42
21.67
21.67
5
5
5
5
5
5
2.25
2.25
2.25
11.35
11.35
11.35
190
190
190
270
270
270
180
180
180
190
190
190
7 DUTY/(SUBSIDY)
RETAIL
RON97
RON95
PEN MAL
SABAH
SARAWAK
-90.4
-89.84
-88.99
LPG
LPG
Diesel
-14.22
-14.22
-14.22
-110.85
-110.29
-109.44
-163.01
-177.41
-176.57
9 supersubsidy price has changed in 16 July 2010
Petrolleum product regulated : Mogas 38.8%, lpg 17.5%, diesel 43.7%
Biodiesel to mindef based on diesel price = 95% diesel price & 5% PME
price from MPOB
PRICE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 100% DIESEL (B0) AND BLENDS OF 5% PME WITH
95% DIESEL (B5) BASED ON APM COMPUTATION (SEN/LITRE) - OCTOBER 2011
100% Diesel
COMPONENTS
( B0 )
Product Cost (Sen/Litre)
Diesel MOP Price + 4.00 sen Alpha 1
PME Price 2
Blends of 5% PME
with 95% Diesel
( B5 )
249.92
249.92
329.55
Cost Build-up Calculation (Sen/Litre)
Diesel Price x % Blend
PME Price x % Blend
Operating Expenditure
Margin
Dealer Commission
249.92
0
9.54
2.25
7.00
237.42
16.48
9.54
2.25
7.00
Total Cost Build-up (Sen/Litre)
268.71
272.69
Retail Pump Price (Sen/Litre)
180.00
180.00
Difference in Cost Between B0 and B5 (Sen/Litre)
Est. Total Financial Costs to Government (Sen/Litre) 3
3.98
88.71
92.69