data processing for climatological purposes

Transcription

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
TECHNICAL NOTE No. 100
DATA PROCESSING
FOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
Proceedings of the WMO Symposium, Asheville, N.C., 1968
WMO-No. 242. TP. 132
Secrétariat of the World Meteorological Organization - Geneva • Switzerland
THE WMO
The World Meleorological Organizalion (WMO) is a specialized agency of the United
Nations of which 131 States and Territorics are Members.
Il was créâted:
—• to facililate international co-operation in the establishment of networks of stations and
centres to provide meteorological services and observations,
— to proinote the establishment and maintenance of Systems for the rapid exchange of
meteorological information,
— to promote standardization of meteorological observations and ensnre the unifonn
publication of observations and slatistics,
— to fnrther the application of meteorology to aviation, shipping. waler problems. agriculture, and other human activities.
— to encourage research and Iraining in meteorology.
The inachinery of the Organi/.ation consists of the following bodies:
The World Meteorological Congress, the suprême body of the Organizalion, brings
together tlic delegates of ail Members once every four years to détermine gênerai policies for
the fulfilnient of the purposes of tlic Organisation, to adopt Technical Régulations relating
to international meteorological practice and to détermine the WMO programme.
The Executive Committee is composed of 24 directors of national meteorological services
and incets at least once a year to conduct the activities of the Organizalion and to implemenl
the décisions taken by its Members in Congress, to sludy and make rccominendations on
matlcrs afifecting international meteorology and the opération of meteorological services.
The six Régional Associations (Africa, Asia. South America, North and Central America,
South-West Pacific and Europe), which are composed of Member Governments. co-ordinale
meteorological activily witliin their respective régions and examine frnm the régional point
of view ail questions referred to them.
The eight Technical Commissions composed of experts désignât ed by Members are
rcsponsible for studving tlic spécial technical branches related to meteorological observation,
analysis. forecasting and research as well as to the applications of meteorology. Technical
Commissions bave been established for svnoptic meteorology, climatology. instruments and
méthode of observation, atmospheric sciences, aeronautical meteorology. agricultural
meteorology, liydrometeorology and maritime incleorology.
The Secrétariat, Iocated at Geneva, Switzcrland, is composed of an international scientific,
technical and administrative staff under the direction of the Secretarv-Gcneral. It undertakes
technical studics. is responsible for the nunierous technical assistance and other technical
co-operation projects in meteorology throughout the world ainied at conlributing to économie
developmcnt ofthe countries eoncerned. It also publislies specialized technical notes, guides,
manuals and reports and in gênerai acls as the link between the meteorological services ofthe
world. The Secrétariat works in close collaboration witb the United Nations and other
specialized ageneies.
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
TECHNICAL NOTE No. 100
DATA PROCESSING
FOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
Froceedings of the WMO Symposium, Asheville, N.C., 1968
WMO - No. 242. TP. 132
Secrétariat of the World Meteorological Organization • Geneva - Switzerland
1969
c-2.
Qi<0H2>2.
1969, World Meteorological Organization
NOTE
The désignations employed and the présentation of the material in this publication do not
imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secrétariat of the World
Meteorological Organization coucerning the légal status of any country or territory or of its
authorities, or concerning the délimitation of its frontiers.
III
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Foreword by the Secretary-General of WMO
V
Introduction (English, French, Russian, Spanish)
VII
List of participants
D. Smedley
E. J. Sumner
J. R. Collins, Jr.
XV
Problems of data processing centre establishment for the
Caribbean Meteorological Institute
1
Collection through the télécommunications system and central
processing of climatological data
11
Automated data processing at the United States Air Force
Environmental Teohnical Applications Center
-.
26
G. E. Stegall
Micro-mini média
31
V. V. Filippov
U. Mané
Quality control procédures for meteorological data
Manual évaluation of autographic records for computer processing
35
39
F. Bultot &
G. L. Dupriez
Lectrice semi-automatique pour dépouillement des diagrammes
climatologiques conventionnels
46
L. S. Gandin
Statlstical methods for automatic check of meteorological information. (Abstract )
49
C. L. Godske
The future of meteorological data analysis
52
H. L. Crutcher
Automatic data handling and processing for climatological
purposes
;
64
H. C. S. Thom
Daily normals from monthly normals. (Abstract)
92
R. Sneyers
L. V. Mitchell
On the climatological analysis of local séries of observations .
Processing upper atmospheric environmental data for climatological use
93
103
On data processing mechanization for hydrometeorological régime
study
126
N. K. KIJukin
FOKEWOHD
The future development of theoretical and applled meteorology dépends, to a large
extent, on the utilization of data-processing Systems. The importance of this relationship
is demonstrated by the fact that several technical commissions of WMO hâve established
working groups on data processing. Furthermore, in WMO World Weather Watch programmes, full
attention has been paid to data-processing aspects. The Commission for Climatology considered that a symposium on data processing for climatological purposes would allow
scientists to exchange their expériences and ideas on the further promotion of climatology
and recommended that WMO should convene such a symposium. This recommendation was approved
by the Executive Committee of the Organization.
At the kind invitation of the United States Government, the symposium was organized by WMO in Asheville, N.C., from 13 to 18 May 1968. Thirty-seven participants from 17
Member countries, including 12 from the U.S.A., attended the symposium, which was held in
the Battery Park Hôtel in Asheville.
Mr. J. F. Bosen (U.S.A.), chairman of the symposium
planning committee, directed the work.
Seventeen papers, followed by lively discussions,
were presented during nine working sessions.
Their subjects ranged from problems of datacentre establishment to very sophisticated topics such as quality control and the best means
for the future development of data-processing methods.
The final session demonstrated the
solidarity of climatologists in fighting for the spread of climatological culture in the
community of meteorologists and among other scientists who need climatology for their work.
In view of the success of the symposium and for the benefit of those who could not
attend, it was recommended that the proceedlngs of the symposium should be publlshed as a
WMO Technical Note. The présent publication is issued in compliance with this proposai.
I am glad to hâve this opportunity of expressing the appréciation of WMO to ail
who hâve contributed to this very successful proJect.
(D. A. DAVIES)
Secretary-General
VII
INTRODUCTION
In the months preceding the symposium, it became apparent that attendance would be
small because of financial and other difficulties associated with travel from so many parts
of the earth, for what must hâve seemed to be a small purpose. As a conséquence, fears
about the success of the symposium grew; but once the sessions began, thèse fears dissipated
rapidly under the warm glow of spirited discussion. Indeed, the very intimacy of the proceedings (thirty-seven participants from seventeen countries) fostered an openness of communication that was impressive by the time the proceedings ended.
Only seventeen papers, presented during nine working sessions, added another important
ingrédient to the lively interplay of expériences, problems and ideas: time. Time for
deliberate présentations by the speakers, for full interaction by the audience, and for full
development of ideas suggested by the subject at hand.
There was at least a little something in the symposium for everyone, from the most
underdeveloped service struggling with hand-to-mouth resources, to establish a viable
existence; to the most advanced service faced with the problems of managing mountains of
heterogeneous data with advanced technologies for storage, retrieval and analysis.
One subject which sprang out of the discussions with some frequency was the vexing
problem of the rôle of computers (and automated processes) in quality control of the data.
The sterling advantages of automation in the collection, réduction, storage, retrieval and
analysis of data make it very tempting to recommend complète automation of the processes
for locating and correcting errors in the data.
In meteorology, the exceptional or anomalous phenomena are of major and even catastrophic importance to mankind; and the data for such phenomena must be rigorously protected.
Unfortunately, the data available to the computer are never more than a sélection from the
total information that can be brought to bear on an event. Computer techniques for error
détection must be based on analytical tests for smoothness and consistency of the data fields
in time and space; and, unless ail supplementary and corollary information in its full redundant détail were also converted to computer média for processing, total automation of
the error correction process must resuit in élimination from the record of the most valuable
data on anomalous phenomena.
The most effective techniques, therefore, for quality control of meteorological data
involve a partnership of man and machine, whereby the computer is used as a diagnostic tool
to locate the impossible, unusual or biased data points for human inspection. Final error
détermination and correction is left to intensive examination, by a subject matter specialist, of each suspect datum in the light of ail available supplementary, redundant or corollary
information.
Probably the most important idea to corne out of the symposium was expressed first by
Dr. Wallen, and later expounded brilliantly by Prof. Godske : climatology i£ meteorological
research. This is possibly the most obvious identity in the science of meteorology; yet
it is probably the most neglected. The myopia lies with both sides; with the climatologist
as well as with the dynamic meteorologist. The climatologist, with rare exception, has
failed to seize the abundant opportunities to apply his wealth of data to the real problems
of synoptic analysis and forecasting. The synoptic meteorologist, for his part, has focused
entirely on his immédiate methodology for solution to the forecast problems and has compromised the future with his disdain for the past. Too often, he has made arbitrary changes in
observing programs, for the sake of expediency; he has smoothed out reality to fit his
current models; and he has swept aside yesterday's data as débris of no further conséquence
to his labors.
VIII
INTRODUCTION
The climatologist must pray, therefore, that the récent stirrings toward proper
attention to the necessary needs of data collection, storage, retrieval, and analysis will
grow and succeed.
Of the seventeen papers in the symposium, only twelve are presented hère in full.
Several remain unavailable for publication; and two papers are available for publication
hère as abstracts only.
Julius F. Bosen
Chairman of the Program
Planning Conmiittee
IX
INTRODUCTION
Pendant les mois qui précédèrent le colloque, Il était devenu évident qu'il n'y
aurait qu'un petit nombre de participants en raison des difficultés financières et autres
qu'ils avaient à surmonter pour venir de si nombreux points de la terre à une réunion dont
le but a dû leur paraître bien modeste. On pouvait donc s'interroger à juste titre sur les
chances de succès du colloque. Mais, dès le début de la conférence, ces craintes se sont
très rapidement dissipées sous la chaleureuse Influence de discussions animées. En effet,
le caractère intime des débats (il y avait trente-sept participants en provenance de dixsept pays) a favorisé une franchise d'expression devenue saisissante à la fin des débats.
En raison du nombre peu élevé (dix-sept en tout) des documents présentés au cours
de neuf séances de travail, un nouvel élément Important est venu s'ajouter à l'interaction
enrichissante des compétences, des problèmes et des idées : le temps. En effet, les orateurs
ont eu tout loisir de s'épancher à fond, l'audience de réagir en profondeur, et les idées
avancées d'être développées et de s'épanouir librement.
Le colloque a vraiment apporté quelque chose à tous, qu'il s'agisse du service le
plus sous-développé, luttant avec des ressources plus que modestes pour se créer une existence viable, ou du service le plus évolué aux prises avec les problèmes que lui pose le
traitement de quantités énormes de données hétérogènes à l'aide de techniques de pointe.
Au cours des débats, un sujet a été assez fréquemment évoqué, à savoir le problème
vexant du rôle des ordinateurs (et de l'automatisation) dans le contrôle de la qualité des
données. En raison des avantages exceptionnels que l'automatisation offre pour le rassemblement, la réduction, le classement, la recherche et l'analyse des données, 11 est très tentant
de recommander l'automatisation complète des procédés de détection et de correction des
erreurs.
En météorologie, les phénomènes exceptionnels ou anormaux ont des conséquences
très graves, voire catastrophiques, pour l'humanité, aussi les données concernant ces phénomènes doivent-elles être rigoureusement protégées. Malheureusement, les données fournies à
l'ordinateur ne sont jamais qu'un choix qui est opéré dans la somme de renseignements pouvant
influer sur un événement. Les techniques d'informatique utilisées pour la détection des
erreurs doivent être fondées sur des tests analytiques destinés à vérifier la cohérence et
la continuité des champs de données dans le temps et dans l'espace. Et, à moins de transcrire
sur des supports adaptés aux exigences des ordinateurs tous les renseignements complémentaires
et corollaires dans leurs moindres détails, l'automatisation totale du processus de correction d'erreurs doit entraîner l'élimination des données les plus précieuses sur les anomalies
météorologiques.
En conséquence, les techniques les plus efficaces de contrôle qualitatif des données météorologiques exigent une association de l'homme et de la machine dans laquelle l'ordinateur sert d'instrument de diagnostic pour déceler les données invraisemblables, anormales
ou faussées afin que l'homme les vérifie. La détermination et la correction finales des
erreurs sont soumises à un spécialiste du domaine auquel se rattachent les données suspectes
et c'est ce spécialiste qui les étudie d'une manière approfondie en tenant compte de tous
les renseignements supplémentaires, redondants ou corollaires.
C'est M. Wallén qui a sans doute exprimé le premier la plus Importante idée du
colloque, Idée que le professeur Godske a ensuite si brillamment développée : la climatologie
X
INTRODUCTION
est la recherche météorologique. C'est là peut-être l'identité la plus évidente de la
science de la météorologie, mais c'est aussi probablement la plus négligée. L'aveuglement
existe des deux cotés : autant chez le climatologiste que chez le spécialiste de la météorologie dynamique. Le climatologiste, à de rares exceptions près, n'a pas saisi les nombreuses occasions d'utiliser la multitude de données mises à sa disposition pour aborder
les véritables problèmes de l'analyse et de la prévision synoptiques. Le météorologiste
synoptique, pour sa part, s'est consacré entièrement aux méthodes qu'il utilise dans l'immédiat pour résoudre les problèmes de prévision et il a compromis l'avenir par son dédain
du passé. Trop souvent, il a apporté des changements arbitraires aux programmes d'observation, pour des raisons d'opportunité. Il a façonné la réalité pour l'adapter à ses modèles
du moment et il a écarté les données d'hier comme des débris inutiles pour l'avenir de ses
travaux.
Le climatologiste doit donc souhaiter ardemment que les récentes initiatives
visant à accorder toute l'attention nécessaire aux besoins essentiels de rassemblement, de
classement, de recherche et d'analyse des données, s'amplifieront jusqu'au succès final.
Sur les dix-sept documents du colloque, douze seulement sont présentés ici in
extenso. Plusieurs documents ne sont pas disponibles pour la publication, tandis que deux
autres peuvent être publiés ici, mais seulement sous forme de résumés.
Julius F. Bosen
Président du comité d'organisation
du programme
XI
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IIX
XIII
INTRODUCCION
Durante los meses que precedieron al coloquio, se puso de manifiesto que la asistencla al mismo séria reducida, debldo a dificultades financleras y de otro tlpo relatlvas
a los viajes que se debîan realizar desde tan distintos lugares de la tierra para participar
en una réunion que, en principio, hubiera podido parecer de menor importancia. En consecuencia, se temlô por el éxito del coloquio, pero una vez que se iniclô la réunion, estos
temores desaparecieron râpidamente gracias a los calurosos y animados debates que tuvieron
lugar. En efecto, la misma intimidad de las sesiones (asistieron 37 participantes procedentes de 17 palses) fomentô una franqueza de comunicaciôn que llegô a ser extraordinaria
en los debates finales.
Los 17 documentos que se presentaron durante las nueve reuniones de trabajo afiadieron otro factor importante al animado intercambio de experiencias, problemas e Ideas: el
tiempo. Tiempo para las ponderadas intervenciones de los oradores, para la total particlpaciôn de la audiencia y para el completo desarrollo de las Ideas que sugerla el tema tratado.
Todos los participantes en el coloquio obtuvieron al menos algûn resultado ventajoso, desde aquellos servicios menos desarrollados que luchan con recursos escaslsimos para
establecer un sistema de existencia viable, hasta los mâs adelantados, que se enfrentan con
los problemas de canalizar una énorme cantidad de datos heterogéneos segûn las técnicas modernas de archlvo, bûsqueda y anâlisis.
Un tema que surgiô frecuentemente en las discusiones lue el penoso problema de
la funciôn de los ordenadores (y procesos automâticos) en el control de la calidad de los
datos. Las auténticas ventajas de la automatizaciôn para la concentraciôn, reducciôn, archlvo, bûsqueda y anâlisis de los datos Incitan a recomendar la compléta automatizaciôn de
los métodos para localizar y corregir los errores de dichos datos.
Por lo que respecta a la meteorologla, los fenomenos anômalos o excepcionales son
de una gran importancia, a veces catastrôfica, para la humanidad. Por lo tanto, los datos
relativos a estos fenomenos deben ser rlgurosamente protegidos; Desgracladamente, los datos
de que dispone el ordenador no pasan de ser una selecclôn de la informaeiôn total que puede
tener consecuencias sobre un acontecimiento. Las técnicas que utillzan ordenadores para la
detecciôn de errores se deben fundar en pruebas analîticas de la unlformidad y consistencia
de la distribuciôn de los datos en el tiempo y en el espacio, y a menos que toda la informaeiôn complementaria y deducida con todos sus detalles se transfiera Igualmente a los medios que utiliza el ordenador para la preparaciôn de los datos, la compléta automatizaciôn
de los métodos de correcciôn de errores tendra como resultado la eliminaciôn en el registro,
de los datos mâs valiosos sobre los fenomenos anormales.
En consecuencia, las técnicas mâs eficaces de control de la calidad de los datos
meteorolôgicos utillzan la asociaciôn del hombre y de la mâquina, en la cual el ordenador
sirve como instrumente de diagnôstico para localizar los aspeetos imposibles, extraordinarios o inexactos de los datos para someterlos a la inspecciôn humana. La determinaciôn y
correcciôn definitivas de los errores se efectûa medlante un examen Intensivo, realizado
por un especialista en la materla, de cada dato dudoso, tenlendo en cuenta toda Informaciôn
suplementaria, duplicada o deducida, disponible.
Probablemente, la idea mâs importante que se deduce del coloquio fue expresada
en primer lugar por el Dr. Wallen y brillantemente expuesta mâs tarde por el Profesor Godske.
XIV
INTRODUCCION
Esta ldea es la slguiente: la climatologia es investigaciôn meteorolôgica. Se trata posiblemente de la mâs obvia identidad en la ciencia de la meteorologîa. Sin embargo, es probablemente la mâs olvldada. El enfoque miope del problema réside en ambas partes, es decir
tanto en el cllmatôlogo como en el meteorologo especializado en meteorologîa dinâmlca. El
cllmatôlogo, con escasas excepciones, no ha sabido aprovechar las numerosas oportunidadas
de aplicar su riqueza de datos a los problemas reaies de anâlisis y predicciôn sinôpticos.
Por su parte, el meteorologo sinôptico ha concentrado toda su atenciôn en su metedologia
inmediata para solucionar los problemas de predicciôn, comprometiendo el futuro con su menosprecio del pasado. Muy frecuentemente, ha introducido cambios arbitrarios en los programas de observacion por razones de convenlencia y oportunidad; ha deformado la realidad
para que se ajustase a sus modelos ordinarios, y ha despreciado los datos del pasado como
desechos sin ninguna ulterior consecuencia en sus trabajos.
Por lo tanto, el cllmatôlogo debe hacer votos para que las recientes tendencias
hacia un adecuado estudio de las imperiosas necesidades relativas a la concentraciôn, archivo, bûsqueda y anâlisis de los datos continûen progresando y se vean coronadas por el
éxito.
De los 17 documentos presentados en el coloquio, ûnicamente 12 figuran aqui en
su totalidad. Algunos no estân disponibles para su publicaciôn y dos de ellos solamente
se pueden incluir en este documento en forma resumida.
Julius F. Bosen
Présidente del Comité de
Planificaciôn del Programa
XV
PARTICIPANTS IN THE SYMPOSIUM ON DATA PROCESSING FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
A. Boukli
1, Av. de l'Indépendance
Alger
Algeria
D. Smedley
UN/WMO Development Programme
Bridgetown
Barbados
H. C. Shellard
UN/WMO DP
P. 0. Box 130, Bridgetown
Barbados
R. Sneyers
Institut royal météorologique
Belgium
Meteorological Service of Canada
Toronto
Canada
C. C. Boughner
Toronto
Canada
J. G. Potter
Toronto
Canada
R. L. Titus
Météorologie nationale
2 Av. Rapp-Paris 7 e
France
P. M. Brochet
Météorologie nationale
2 Av. Rapp-Paris 7 e
France
A. Guerout
Mrs. A. Gutsche
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Offenbach/M.
Germany (F.R.)
S. Cheng
Royal Observatory
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
T. Sigurdsson
Vedurstofa Islands, Reykjavik
Iceland
W. H. Wann
Irish Meteorological Service
44, Upper O'Connel Street
Dublin
Ireland
U. Marié
Israël Meteorological Service
P. 0. Box 25
Bet Dagan
Israël
T. B. Ridder
K.N.M.I., De Bilt
Netherlands
C. L. Godske
University of Bergen
Norway
M. Haug
Meteorologische Zentralanstalt
Zurich
Switzerland
M. E. L. Buys
Agrometeorological Section
F.F.T.R.I., Stellenbosch
S. Africa
E. J. Sumner
Meteorological Office
Bracknell, England
U.K.
XVT
PARTICIPANTS IN THE SYMPOSIUM ON DATA PROCESSING FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
J. F. Bosen
Environmental Data Service, ESSA
Silver Spring, Maryland
U.S.A.
D. Case
U.S. Naval Weather Research Facility
Norfolk, Virginia
U.S.A.
J. R. Collins
Environmental Technical Applications
Center, USAF, Washington, D. C.
U.S.A.
H. L. Crutcher
National Weather Records Center
Asheville, N. C.
U.S.A.
W. H. Haggard
Asheville, N. C.
U.S.A.
W. C. Jacobs
U.S.A.
R. L. Joiner
Asheville, N. C.
U.S.A.
W. M. McMurray
Asheville, N. C.
U.S.A.
L. V. Mitchell
Environmental Technical Applications
Center, USAF, Washington, D. C.
U.S.A.
R. Papania
Department of Défense
Washington, D. C.
U.S.A.
G. E. Stegall
Asheville, N. C.
U.S.A.
H.C.S. Thom
U.S.A.
N. K. Kljukin
Institute of Aeroclimatology
Moscow
USSR
V. P. Meleshko
Main Geophysical Observatory
Leningrad
USSR
C. C. Wallén
Secrétariat of World Meteorological
Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
V. V. Filippov
Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
S. Jovic'ic'
Organization
Geneva, Switzerland
PROBLEMS OF DATA PROCESSING CENTRE ESTABLISHMENT FOR THE
CARIBBEAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
by
David Smedley
Project Manager
I am afraid that those who hâve worked in the larger more developed countries hâve
been accustomed to take for granted a great many things in the field of data processing for
climatological purposes . Many of us hâve begun our association with the field of data processing at a time when the mechanics of the processing centres had already been established,
and we hâve only been involved in new developments and in graduai changes in programmes,
with the introduction of new more sophisticated data processing equipment, and with looking
forward to find new and better uses for the existing equipment. There has tended to be
little active considération of the problems which face the newly developed nations in the
actual process of setting up a data processing centre where one has not existed in any sensé
previously. This is évident in the relative void in the literature on this particular aspect
of the problem.
When one actually begins the task of establishing a data processing centre from the
very beginning, it immediately becomes obvious that the centre itself is only one small part
of the problem. It is found that numerous other aspects of the field of meteorology corne
into play and must be considered very comprehensively before the actual work of processing
of the data may begin. The remarks which I will make, it is hoped, will bring into a little
clearer focus just what some of thèse problems are, and suggestions will be made as to methods of approaching the problem in a rational manner.
The existence of thèse various facets of the problem are not new to any of us. We
hâve really known them ail along. Rather, the fact is that we hâve tended to begin our
thinking concerning the establishment of data processing centres half way down the road
rather than at the beginning where we should hâve. This has been forcibly brought home to
me since I began my assignment about one year ago as Project Manager for the UNDP/WMO Project
for the Improvement of Caribbean Meteorological Services.
This project includes provision for the establishment of a Data Processing Centre. In
order that my remarks concerning the problems which are being encountered may be more clear,
I believe that it would be worthwhile if I were to give a brief description of our programme
at this time.
Our Project was conceived for the purpose of bringing about an improvement of the
meteorological services which are available to the British Commonwealth members in the
Caribbean area. There are thirteen of thèse nations and territories participating in our
Project. Thèse include the four nations which hâve attained complète independence, although
they are still numbered within the Commonwealth Nations, namely Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad
and Tobago, and Guyana. Secondly, there are those which hâve reached a degree of independence
but which still retain a relationship with the United Kingdom and are known as Associated
States. Thèse include St. Kitts/Nevis/Anguilla, Antigua, Dominica, St. Lucia and Grenada.
Finally, there are several islands which hâve elected to remain as direct dependencies of
the United Kingdom, including the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and Montserrat.
For the moment, St. Vincent remains in this last group though there are plans for it to join
the second group, the Associated States, at some time in the future.
DATA PROCESSING FOR THE CARIBBEAN METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
The total finances available to the Project over its planned 4-year life are approximately 2% million dollars (U.S.)» of which about 1% million dollars (U. S.) is being furnished by the United Nations Development Programme and approximately one million dollars
(U.S.) is being furnished by the participating governments. The United Nations Development
Programme contribution includes the services of six experts - the Project Manager, Aerologist,
Climatologist, Hydrometeorologist, Agrometeorologist, and an Electronics and Equipment Expert. In addition to the services of the experts, there are funds provided for the purchase
of quite a bit of equipment, including five radars, eighteen agricultural meteorological
stations which are to be scattered throughout the Caribbean, a data processing unit, a photographie unit, and an equipment repair and calibration shop. As a centre for the activity,
the Caribbean Meteorological Institute has been set up on the island of Barbados.
The contributions provided by the participating governments are furnished in several
ways; land was given for the Institute; funds were provided for the actual building for the
Institute and for the salaries for some thirteen employées on the counterpart side, including
a Senior Administrative Officer, a Senior Meteorological Assistant, two Meteorological
Assistants, a Junior Technical Officer, a Librarian, two Stenographers, a Clérical Officer,
two Data Processing Machine Operators, a Messenger/Driver and a Handyman/Cleaner. Ail of
thèse are currently employed, with the exception of the Data Processing Machine Operators
and the Junior Technical Officer. The governments1 cash contribution is also used for the
purchase of furniture and equipment for the Institute, together with the cost of the day-byday opération of the Project.
The Caribbean Meteorological Council, which has membership from each of the participating governments, plus British Honduras, has been designated as the Co-operating InterGovernmental Agency and it, in turn, has named the Director-General of the Caribbean
Meteorological Service as the Project Co-Manager.
The Project, Including the Institute, has a number of functions which are to be carried
out concurrently. Provision has been made for the training of forecasters, meteorological
assistants, climatologists, hydrometeorologists, agrometeorologists, as well as personnel
to maintain and repair both the meteorological equipment and the electronic equipment which
is being purchased. An instrument dépôt is being set up which will also act as a calibration and repair unit, providing services to ail of the participating governments. A research
programme is being initiated which will be quite modest in the early days of the Project,
and it is expected that this function will become more and more active as the years pass.
Provision has been made for co-operation and collaboration with a number of universities and
other agencies which are carrying out meteorological research in the Caribbean area.
Funds and personnel hâve been provided in the Project for a data processing unit, which
is the main subject of my paper today. In addition, various members of the staff, both
expert and counterpart, are available for advisory services to the participating governments
on meteorological matters.
As I hâve mentioned before, the duration of the Project has been set at four years,
and at the end of this time it is planned that the Project will be turned over to a group
of West Indians who will continue to conduct the programme in the name of the Caribbean
Meteorological Council. The Plan of Opération provides that thèse West Indians will be
selected during the first year of the Project and sent abroad on United Nations Development
Programme/World Meteorological Organization Fellowships for periods ranging from twelve
months to twenty-four months for further training in the field in which they will serve when
they will take over the opération of the Institute and the Project. Thèse Fellowships include studies In gênerai meteorology for the Principal of the Institute, gênerai meteorology
and radar meteorology for the Aerologist, and appropriate instruction for those who will
serve as Agricultural Meteorologist, Climatologist, Hydrometeorologist, and Electronics
and Equipment Officer.
As you no doubt realize, this is rather an ambitious programme for a staff that numbers
only about twenty. The Institute building had been planned and construction begun before the
Project became operational on August 23, 1967, but it was not possible to purchase equipment
and furniture until after the experts had begun to arrive on the scène. Now, most of the
administrative equipment and furniture has been obtained but the procurement of the more
technical meteorological and specialized equipment was held up pending the arrivai of the
various experts so that they could advise on its sélection. The last of the experts arrived
in late January. Orders for quite a bit of this equipment hâve already been placed but, as
you are aware, there are often some delays in the actual delivery and installation.
Now that you hâve some feeling for the overall Project, the total funds available, and
the types and number of personnel which are involved in the headquarters opération, it is
time to discuss the actual problems which hâve been, and are being, encountered in the
setting up of our Data Processing Centre.
It would be idéal if it were possible to set about the establishment of such a centre
by taking several steps in a logical order. The first natural step would be to détermine
the data requirements for the area and to détermine the publication requirements, both routine
and for summaries. Following this, the next logical step would be to identify the equipment that would be required to carry out ail of thèse requirements in the most expeditious
manner and, once this had been done, then to obtain the money necessary to provide the data
processing equipment.
In a situation such as this, it is always a great temptation to specify a modem
computer system, but in a great many instances there is no real requirement for such a
sophisticated pièce of equipment. The proper procédure is to not only détermine the Immédiate requirements, but also to project your planning some years into the future, and then
prescribe the equipment which will be really needed.
However, in our case, it was necessary to work backwards. An amount of $42,000 (U.S.)
was included in the Project for data processing equipment. Since the funds are coming from
the United Nations Development Programme through the World Meteorological Organization, and
since the Project is to be continued by the Caribbean Meteorological Council at the termination of the UNDP period, it is necessary that equipment be purchased outright, and no trial
periods of equipment rental are allowed. There is a possibility that some small increase
in the funds available might be permitted, but this is not expected to be of any major
significance. Then it was necessary to sélect equipment which would provide for as many as
possible of the various functions that would be required, and still remain within the
financial framework. Following this, after identification of the equipment, it will be
necessary to gear our data processing and publication programme to the funds available and
to accomplish as much as possible with the equipment provided.
Obviously, the availability of only $42,000 (U.S.) has precluded any considération of
either an electronic computer or the most sophisticated punch card equipment. The necessity
of purchasing, rather than renting, has made it mandatory that our sélection of equipment be
the most suitable one at the very beglnning, inasmuch as there is no opportunity for second
thoughts. What we obtain we must live with, and make do the job for which is required of it.
In addition to the financial limitations which hâve already been discussed, we hâve
another limitation which is also rather stringent, at least to begin with. The Plan of
Opération which was agreed on between the United Nations Development Programme, the World
Meteorological Organization and the various participating nations, has specified certain
personnel who are to work in the Data Processing Centre. On the World Meteorological Organization staff there is only one, the Climatologist, who will be in charge of the Data Processing Centre in addition to many other duties which hâve also been identified in connection
with his position. Naturally, several other of the experts will hâve a practical interest
in the opération of the Data Processing Centre as it affects their opérations in Agricultural
Meteorology, Hydrometeorology, Aviation and Research, and it is anticipated that they will
also participate to some extent in the opération of the Data Processing Centre, once again,
in addition to their numerous other duties as set out in the Plan of Opération. On the
counterpart, or government side of the Project, there is provision for only two data processing machine operators. As one of thèse will need to be fully occupied in punching the
incoming data, it will be appreciated that we shall hâve limited resources and that it will
be necessary to plan our programme accordingly. It is hoped that once the unit becomes
operational and its value has been demonstrated it will be possible to obtain some increase
in staff in order to expand our data processing work.
One problem which we are having hère, and one which I feel is apt to arise in many
areas of the world, is that of the availabllity of personnel who hâve been trained to
operate punch card equipment. In Barbados there is no wealth of trained personnel, and the
salary structure to which we are committed is not such that it would enable us to attract
people from either the regular government service, where employées hâve retirement rights
and security of tenure, or from any of the commercial organizations which do hâve this type
of equipment. Naturally, there is no one available who has had any sort of expérience in
machine processing of meteorological data so that whoever we hire will hâve to be given a
certain amount of training so that they will be able to deal effectlvely with such data. To
date, we hâve not found any solution to this problem, and if we are forced to hire completely
untrained people, and even then only two of them, it will take a little while to get the
Data Processing Centre into full swing.
Inasmuch as the various classes in forecasting, observing, and especlally in climatology, hydrometeorology and agricultural meteorology, will receive some instruction in the
capabilities and use of the data processing equipment, it is hoped that we will be able to
obtain operational benefits from the use of the equipment by the students, at least to some
extent, during their periods of training. As yet is is not completely clear as to exactly
how great this assistance will turn out to be. Certainly it will not be at the same level
as one might expect with a full-time staff whose entire day is devoted to the data processing
programme.
Another limitation is that the maintenance charges for the equipment must be borne by
the counterpart side of the Project, and equipment had to be obtained that could be reliably
maintained at a reasonable cost, both during the life of the Project and also afterwards when
the United Nations part of the Project is completed.
Within thèse limitations, both of finance and personnel, it has also been found that
there were a number of problems encountered in making the actual sélection of the equipment.
The World Meteorological Organization has issued several publications, Technical Note No. 73
"Data Processing in Meteorology", and Technical Note 74 "Data Processing by Machine Methods",
and also Chapter 6 of the "Guide to Climatological Practices". Thèse last two publications
were useful to some extent, but they are very gênerai in nature and were not of much assistance in making the actual sélection of individual pièces of equipment. (In fact, nowhere
could we find even a complète list of manufacturers of data processing equipment.) Thèse
publications are geared to the idéal situation in which the programme is first defined, the
equipment selected, and the money raised, rather than to our own programme in which the
reverse situation applies. Several of the experts assigned to the Project hâve been working
for a number of years with the output of Data Processing Centres and are fairly familiar
with this aspect of the opération, but unfortunately none has had intimate expérience with
the actual procurement of equipment or its day-to-day opération after Installation. A
number of other publications and books hâve been utilized, as hâve discussions and exchanges
of correspondence with those more experienced in the actual mechanics of the opération, both
in the United States and in the United Kingdom, and thèse exchanges hâve proven to be most
valuable and helpful.
Another source of invaluable assistance was through discussions with the local représentatives in the Caribbean of several of the data processing machine manufacturers. However, it must be realized that none of thèse local représentatives has had any expérience
in meteorological applications and, of necessity, their assistance was once again quite
gênerai in nature, dealing mainly with the mechanical capabilities of the equipment. They
hâve obtained additional information from their home offices concerning several questions
to which they were not able to provide ready answers.
In the face of this situation, a considérable amount of research into the types of
equipment and their capabilities was necessary, and this has proven to be time-consuming.
Often months elapsed before the equipment that would both fit more or less within our
financial framework and, at the same time, do a reasonable job of carrying out the programme
could be identified as being necessary, was selected. It was only at the end of February
that the detailed spécifications for the equipment were forwarded to the World Meteorological
Organization for submission for bids. At the présent time, we do not know which manufacture r a equipment we will be receiving, but we hâve asked for an automatic punch (alpha-numeric),
a sorter with counters on each Stacker, a tabulator (alpha-numeric), a collator with split
comparing unit (alpha-numeric), and a reproducer with summary punch. To supplément this we
are hoping to obtain an electronic desk calculator of some sort, together with the usual
adding machines, etc. At the présent time, the détails of this peripheral equipment hâve
not been finalized.
There is one additional problem which must be considered in the sélection of our equipment. Both the United States and the United Kingdom hâve already placed climatological information for the Caribbean area on punch cards, and we are investigating the possibility of
obtaining copies of some of thèse cards so that we will not be in a position of being guilty
of duplication of effort by punching at the Institute something that has already been done
elsewhere. For this reason, it is necessary that we obtain equipment which will be compatible with the Systems which are in opération in both of thèse countries.
We realize only too well that the equipment which we hâve specified is not going to
be able to fulfill ail of our requirements or be able to do ail of the things that we would
like it to do.
Indeed, if we are required to remain within the financial framework originally provided
to us, $42,000, and within the staffing limitations placed upon us, one head of department
with many other obligations on his time, and two operators, we will hâve a program which will
fall quite a bit short of the optimum desired. Aside from the staff, the most serious shortcoming will be in the tabulator which, as I understand it, will be capable only of listing
and adding. There will be no facility for multiplying or dividing. This, of course, will
mean that ail of thèse opérations will hâve to be done manually by a staff that is already
too small.
In addition, our flexibility will be eut down with the less expensive tabulator since
the number of printing and counting wheels will not be large.
Another anticipated problem cornes in the proposed publication program. It was hoped
to be able to use the machine output as copy for préparation of printing plates. However,
if I am correct, we will most likely find that the quality of the machine output will not
lend itself readily to photographie reproduction. If this does in fact, turn out to be the
case, we will be faced with another requirement for increased personnel.
This is due to the fact that in our situation we hâve been obliged, through the restrictions placed upon us, to carry out our planning not by the idéal method mentioned above, but
rather by the reverse where the financial and personnel aspects are primary, and the meteorological applications are relegated to a secondary rôle. As our Project develops, we will
hâve to reassess the situation and at that time attempt to obtain additional equipment
through some means which will increase our capability.
Now that the equipment has been selected that will corne close to being within the
prescribed financial limitations, the time has corne for us, while we are waiting for the
sélection, delivery and installation of the punch card equipment, to go into some détail
concerning the actual data processing and publication programme. I do not mean to say that
thèse hâve been ignored to date, but rather that the primary emphasis has been placed on
sélection of the equipment, with relatively lesser emphasis being placed on the détails of
the programme.
At the same time that the Climatologist has been working to sélect the equipment, he
has also been preparing an évaluation of the status of climatology in the Caribbean area,
including the identification and location of the frequency, types and quantities of meteorological and climatological material in the area, together with a preliminary assessment of
its quality. Prior to the breakup of the Fédération of the West Indies in 1962, there had
been a centralized meteorological service with headquarters in Trinidad, which included a
climatological unit which was responsible for collecting, transmitting and publishing climatological information for ail of the British Commonwealth territories in the Caribbean.
Since the breakup of the Fédération, however, this centralized service has decreased in size
and programme to the point that the climatological services provided hâve been minimal, and
there has been no publication of any climatological data, with a very few exceptions (Jamaica
1961, Guyana 1962) since the data for the year 1960. As a resuit, thèse records are scattered
throughout the area and provisions will hâve to be made to assemble them once again and to
hâve ail of the current returns sent to the Caribbean Meteorological Institute for processing.
In addition, allowance must be made for the fact that our Project will be providing for the
expansion of observations and, as a resuit, climatological information throughout the area,
by the establishment of a number of agricultural meteorological stations, together with
the stimulation of the various governments so that they will, it is hoped, increase their
own observational programmes, either by the addition of various types of stations, or by
the expansion of the types and quantities of observations at the already existing stations.
Although our data processing unit will be a relatively small one, it will need to
deal with data of différent kinds from various types of stations, to meet spécial as well as
gênerai needs. Data will corne from synoptic stations, some observing hourly, some less
frequently, and from climatological, agro-meteorological and précipitation stations, some
observing daily, others more frequently, while the unit's products will need to meet the
needs of agriculture and hydrology as well as other disciplines.
This assessment of the current and past situation, together with the anticipated increase in the programme, is by no means a simple task in itself and will be quite time-consuming for not only the Climatologist, but also the Hydrometeorologist and the Agrometeorologist, together with others on the staff who will be involved in making the recommendations
to the various governments concerning their future programmes.
We hâve been operating, to a certain extent, under a handicap by the fact that a great
deal of the material which will form the nucleus of our Institute Library was shipped to us
by the Caribbean Meteorological Service in Trinidad as well as from other sources. Delays
encountered in obtaining shelving for the Library hâve made it necessary to defer unpacking
of this material, a great deal of which would hâve been most useful to us in making our
assessments. Our appraisal of the situation was, therefore, to a large extent, necessarily
based on the personal expérience of our climatologist as well as the knowledge of several of
the staff members who hâve been working in the Caribbean area for some time.
I hâve touched briefly on the quality of the past observations. It will be necessary,
before any processing of summaries can be carried out, to perform an évaluation of the
quality of the data on hand, methods of observation and types and conditions of the various
meteorological instruments in use in the various countries. This, in itself, will not be
a simple task and this is one aspect of the work which it is hoped can be contributed to by
the students in the various classes as a part of this training programme.
It will also be necessary, before we begin the actual processing of the data, to
establish adéquate procédures for checking the climatological returns as they are received,
and for performing quality control procédures that will provide an adéquate safeguard that
the work we are doing will be effective. This will be an extremely difficult thing to do,
especially in view of the limited personnel which are available to us. It may be that in
some phases of this work we will be obliged to use the services of some of the students as
a part of their training programme. This, of course, while providing a stopgap measure,
will most certainly not be as satisfactory as it would be if we were in a position to maintain a full-time staff for thèse purposes.
In addition to the collection and summarization of the information from the partlcipating countries, it will also be necessary for us at the Institute to consider the information which is available from the other meteorological services in the area -- the French,
the Dutch, the United States, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Central America and those
of the South American countries which border on the Caribbean down as far south as French
Guiana. This is necessary because, as we ail know, climate does not recognize political
boundaries, and ail of thèse areas which I hâve listed are part of the same géographie area
and can, therefore, not be ignored in our climatological programme.
There is one rather serious problem with which we are faced in the setting up of our
climatological programme, including the establishment of the Data Processing Centre. This
is the fact that over the past years there has been no really coordinated climatological
programme throughout the area, in which ail of the islands and countries hâve been considered
to the extent that they should hâve been. There hâve been efforts on the part of some of
the meteorological services, universities and other agencies which hâve considered portions
of thèse matters, but for the area as a whole very little work has been done and, as a
resuit, the magnitude of the task with which we are faced, especially if we are eventually
to become truly régional in character, would be quite monumental. Included in this problem
are the facts that the various countries, mentioned above, employ a number of languages,
including English, French, Dutch and Spanish, and are utilizing a wide variety of meteorological instruments and, to a certain extent, observational practices. This involves the use
of différent units of measurement. Ail thèse heterogeneous features must be considered when
we realize that, for ail practical purposes, we at the Caribbean Meteorological Institute
are setting up what it is hoped will be a truly régional climatological system, from a
beginning that is, virtually, non-existent. Once again, we are certainly handicapped by
both the finances available and the number of personnel which are being provided for us.
Another problem which is bound to arise has to do with the arrangements which must be
made for the receipt of the information for processing at the Institute. This involves a
survey of the existing communications facilities and a détermination of the relative requirements for speed in receiving the information. Naturally, if ail of the information is sent
by surface mail, valuable time will be lost in the publication of the data but, at the same
time, considération has to be given to the cost which would be involved in arranging to hâve
the information received at the Institute expeditiously. As is true in so many of the
developing areas, money is not always readily available and in some instances sending by air
mail could prove to be a costly burden. I know this is true because our budget at the
Institute is tight enough that we hâve to consider very carefully whether or not something
will be sent by airmail or by surface mail, or whether some alternative method must be sought.
This situation, while it may seem to be rather minor, is still one which will hâve to be
looked at quite carefully and, possibly, compromise arrangements made.
There has been a récent development in the field of meteorological télécommunications
in the area, which may well provide some degree of alleviation by allowing for a rapid transmission of essential climatological information to the Institute. Within récent months a
discrète meteorological télécommunications channel has been decided upon and is in the process
of implementation. The full impact and prospects for its use for climatological purposes
has not yet been investigated, but this will certainly hâve to be done when we consider the
matter of the transmission of information to use.
Another facet of the problem which must be resolved is that of the format for the
observational fomis. At the présent time, while there is some uniformity among the stations
which hâve been under the control of the Caribbean Meteorological Service, thèse stations do
not form the entire network. Traditionally throughout the area there hâve been a number of
various ministries and agencies which hâve been involved in the collection of meteorological
data, which will form the nucleus of the mass of information which will be coming into the
Institute. Many of thèse hâve been using their own forms, but if we are to hâve an
efficiently operating data processing centre it is going to be necessary for us to arrange
for uniformity of use of a single form for each single purpose so that the punchers will
not hâve to work from a variety of différent forms. Naturally, the forms which we will
propose to hâve used by ail agencies, whether they be agriculture, works, communications,
hydraulics, or other, should be the same and they should be designed in such a manner that
they correspond to the punch cards which are to be used in the Data Processing Centre.
Once we hâve designed both the observational forms and the punch cards there will
remain the task of persuading each of the various authorities concerned to adopt our forms.
It Is not anticipated that this will be a simple job.
Another aspect of this problem of setting up observational forms and punch cards is
the préparation of an adéquate System of numbering of stations throughout the area which
will permit the greatest degree of flexibility in our opérations at the Institute and, in
addition, which will provide for such expansion as may be found necessary in the future as
our programme begins to gain momentum. Provision should also be made for the eventual
inclusion of data from the various governments other than those which are members of the
Commonwealth.
Once the observational and punch card formats hâve been designed and then accepted,
it will be necessary to complète our plans for routine checking, processing and publication
of the data. Thèse problems hâve been considered for some time now but as yet no plans hâve
been finalized. Before this can be done it is necessary that the staff at the Institute
should hâve become familiar with the requirements for current climatological information
throughout the area. A décision has to be made as to whether the data from ail of the
participating countries will be included in a single publication or whether, perhaps, it
would be more advantageous and less costly to issue our publications for individual countries
in the case of the larger countries with a greater number of stations, and possibly for
smaller groups of nations for the others. The cost of publication must constantly be kept
in mind in our opérations, especially since our Plan of Opération has made no provision
whatsoever for bearing the cost of publication, even though it has committed the staff to
ihe publication of data. I speak hère with référence to the routine month-by-month, year-byyear publication of climatological data. It will be necessary for our staff to search out
the individual problem areas in each of the countries and to détermine whether or not any
agencies within thèse governments hâve any plans for preparing a separate publication which
would still be possible within the context of our Project. Considération must be given also
as to whether the requirements for ail of the countries are identical or whether the needs
vary from one country to another.
While thèse questions are being answered it will be necessary to prépare the required
forms and to make provision for the receipt of the data, its processing and publication
within a reasonably short time so that it will be meaningful. Care must be taken that the
formats which are used in the temperate latitudes are not merely adopted without due considération. Careful study should be given to this matter inasmuch as, in some of the climatological éléments at least, the emphasis in tropical areas is not necessarily the same as it
is in temperate latitudes, and it is most probable that new différent formats will hâve to
be established and adopted.
We hâve now discussed the routine publications, but this leaves an even more wide-open
area, that of the préparation of summarized data after we hâve been able to build up a backlog of punched cards within our punched card library. Hère, there is no absolute requirement
for uniformity of publications among ail of the participating nations. It will be necessary
to survey in détail the data requirements for each of the areas and to prépare summarized
data which will corne the closest to answering the questions which require answering. Once
thèse various déterminations hâve been made, it will be necessary to prépare the programmes
which will be within the capability of the equipment which will be installed to carry out
the required programmes.
Thèse summarized data, whether in tabular, map or diagram form, may or may not receive
formai publication, depending upon the estimated degree of demand. They may be prepared for
a number of various uses, including aviation, agrometeorology, hydrometeorology, or many of
the various facets of climatology, such as building, transportation, récréation and the like.
In addition to the various uses to which the Data Processing Centre will be put, there
is of course one which will be developed more slowly but which it is expected will become
quite real once the supply of punched cards has grown, and that is for research purposes.
Thèse research requirements may be generated by the research programme being carried on at
the Institute by the World Meteorological Organization staff or later by the West Indian
staff which replaces them. Research requirements may be placed upon the Data Processing
Centre by the various universities and agencies which are carrying on research of various
types in the Caribbean area. This particular facet of the programme is not of paramount
importance at the moment, but it cannot be overlooked and our planning today must take it
into considération so that when the time cornes the machinery for it will be available.
I hâve discussed above a number of problems which hâve been encountered in setting up
the Data Processing Centre at the Caribbean Meteorological Institute. Thèse problems hâve
included finance, personnel, equipment, training of personnel, availability of data, quality
of data, communications, observational forms, punch card formats, publication formats, requirements for summarization, and research requirements.
As you may realize, each of thèse by itself can represent a rather formidable task and
in the developed areas each of thèse is assigned to a separate individual unit. Hère at
the Institute ail of thèse must be tackled and solved by the same small nucleus of personnel.
My discussions so far hâve touched only on the problems which hâve been encountered
and which will be encountered before the actual Data Processing Centre is put into opération.
There are, we are well aware, a vast number of problems which we will hâve to face in great
détail after the punch card equipment has been delivered and put into opération. Thèse
problems will not be easy ones to solve, especially with relatively inexperienced personnel
but they will be taken up in due course. I will not make any attempt to touch on them at
this time. Perhaps a year after the equipment has been delivered would be a more appropriate
time to do this.
In view of the expérience that we hâve had in setting up our own opération at the
Caribbean Meteorological Institute, I should like to make a few recommendations which may be
of assistance to others contemplating the establishment of a data processing centre for
climatological purposes.
To begin with it is extremely important to take a logical approach. Do not do what we
hâve had to do, if it can be avoided; start with a set amount of money, and with a specified
number of personnel and then design a programme within thèse restrictions. Rather, it is
extremely important to complète a number of other steps before even considering the acquisition of data processing equipment of any kind.
To begin with, the climatological programme in gênerai should be well thought out and
well established. The problem areas should be defined, the requirements should be well
recognized and a rational method of attack should be formulated. The means of communication
by which the climatological information is to be obtained should be firmly established and
the types, amounts and quality of the observational data which will be involved should be
10
completely identified. The requirements for published information should be formulated, as
should the requirements for summaries which will be sufficient to satisfy the majority of
requests. The anticipated demands which will be placed on the Data Processing Centre for
research purposes should be well thought out and future requirements anticipated far in
advance. In short, the climatological programme should be established in such a manner that
ail présent and most anticipated requirements are identified.
Then, and only then, should considération of the Data Processing Centre become the
primary issue. With ail of the background information at hand, the task of identifying the
equipment which will be required to do the job will not be as complicated as it was in our
case. Once the equipment has been identified, the personnel requirements to perform the
necessary processing can be established and following that, the financial requirements, both
for equipment and personnel, initial and recurring, can be determined. In this context, I
should like to caution once again, that the equipment finally selected should be that which
is actually required. Obviously, it would be folly to secure a computer, at great cost,which
would be used only a few hours a day due to having too small a requirement. This would be
a case of sending a man on a boy's errand. True, it may bring a certain amount of prestige
to the organization to be able to say "I've got the biggest computer that money can buy"
but, this might not be justified economically.
If it should turn out that It would be too costly to provide the type of data processing centre that is determined to be désirable, then it would be necessary to take a second
look at the programme and reach a compromise solution in a logical manner whereby the least
necessary features are deleted.
In conclusion, the establishment of a data processing centre is an extremely serious
undertaking and should not be done lightly. It is not sufficient to say "Good, let's hâve
a data processing centre. Hère are X dollars, go and buy one". A great deal of serious
planning must be done beforehand if the venture is to be an unqualified success that we
would like it to be.
11
COLLECTION THROUGH THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM
AND CENTRAL PROCESSING OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
by
E. J. Sumner
Meteorological Office, Bracknell, Berkshire, England
SUMMARY
The paper describes the outcome of a séries of trial experiments carried out within the
British Meteorological Office in récent years, to collect surface climatological data for the
British Isles from hourly reporting stations via the télécommunications network, The extra
précision (e.g., températures to the nearest 0.1°C) and éléments (e.g., sunshine, hourly
rainfall, hourly run of the wind, etc.) required by the climatologist and not normally contained in synoptic messages were provided through specially coded additions (hourly and
daily) to the standard collectives.
Thèse data on (5-hole) teleprinter tape were read into the central computer for
limited processing and were analysed in other ways to obtain error statistics. The full
System would hâve entailed extensive quality control checks, output of selected tabulations
for local and outstation use and final rétention of ail the data in magnetic tape files in
station order, but because of impending changes in the national communications and central
processing facilities over the next few years it was decided not to develop the project
further, at présent. However, valuable expérience was obtained on the viability of such a
scheme and of the practical difficulties inhérent in it.
The collection of purely synoptic data for library rétention on magnetic tape is a
simpler derivative of the full scheme and plans are going ahead in the British Meteorological
Office to extract a hemispheric coverage of foreign data (surface and upper-air) for several
hundred stations from incoming teleprinter tapes, later this year. This library will be
extended backwards in time by drawing on a store of teleprinter tapes accumulated over the
last ten years.
The paper also includes some spéculation on the future rôle of computer-based communication Systems for the collection and distribution of data for research, climatological or
synoptic purposes.
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
The traditional methods of the climatologist involve the central collection of observational data by means of postal returns (usually monthly and in manuscript) only a proportion
of which, after hand-and-eye editing, are punched on cards for subséquent machine processing.
The system is slow and cumbersome, being limited by the processing devices available.
The advent of the electronic computer, with its more powerful and flexible processing
capabilities, has transformed the situation. The old editing and vérification methods are
already being superseded by computer quality control: card stocks are increasingly being
converted to magnetic tape, a faster, more compact and more versatile computer médium. New
and more onerous demands for climatological services hâve been stimulated, requiring speedier
data collection and increased quantity and quality of data in machineable forms.
1.2
An obvious alternative to postal collection for climatological data is the télécommunications System. The immediacy and speed of télécommunications are manifest yet hâve been
12
COLLECTION AND PROCESSING OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA THROUGH TELECOMMUNICATIONS
little exploited by climatologists. Whatever reasons there were for this neglect in the past
are far less convincing now that computer editing and sorting of "raw" teleprinter tapes are
possible - now that punched média (cards and paper tapes) hâve, In a sensé, been relegated
almost to an intermediary rôle in data processing.
There are, of course, difficulties in utilizing the télécommunications System for the
collection of climatological information. For one thing the teleprinter network provides
access to only a limited coverage of climatological stations. Nonetheless thèse are usually
the only ones recording hourly observations for which there is the gréâtest demand and which
constitute a very large proportion by volume of the available climatological data. (In the
British Isles only about one third of the climatological stations hâve access to the teleprinter system but thèse produce more than 907» of the total available climatological data.
Of thèse latter, only about 407» are at présent entered on punched cards).
A more positive restriction is that synoptic messages In the usual coded forms do not
include ail the éléments needed by the climatologist nor are ail those that are included of
sufficient précision. Thus, if the requirements of climatology are to be fully met, certain
additions to synoptic messages must be incorporated prior to or during processing, preferably
also via the télécommunications System to obviate the difficulties and delays of spécial
postal returns.
1.3
In order to test the feasibility of collecting total climatological data via the télécommunications network, three separate one-month trials were carried out within the British
Meteorological Service, the first in November, 1961 (based on 17 outstations), the second
in February, 1963 (63 stations) and the most récent in November, 1965 (60 stations).
Spécial codes and message forms were devised to handle the extra data required and
after each trial sample error rates were obtained and suggestions sought from the participating stations for improving the codes and procédures, etc.
1.4
This paper is concerned to présent and analyse the results of thèse trials and to
discuss the implications and difficulties of such a scheme, as an alternative to the
traditional System. Given adéquate central computer facilities there is the advantage
(apart from greater speed of collection, the availabllity of more précise data for synoptic
purposes and the possible abolition of postal returns) that climatological data processing
could be combined with other real-time activities (editing of meteorological communications
traffic generally, data extraction routines of numerical weather prédiction, daily publications, etc.) the intégration of which is a désirable objective in any efficient Meteorological
EDP Centre.
2.
The spécial messages and their contents
2.1
Five différent forms of message were required, designated by the following code words:CLEX
CLID
CLIR
CLIS
CLIW
(short for Climatological Extras)
(Climat Daily)
(Climat Rainfall)
(Climat Sunshine)
(Climat Wind)
The last three applied only to stations equipped with the relevant autographic instruments
The formats of the coded messages which followed thèse key words are given in Appendix
I.
2.2
CLEX messages were devised to transmit extra hourly or fixed-hourly climatological
material not contained in the SYNOP or AERO message. They included wet- and dry-bulb
températures to the nearest 0.1°C, state of ground and visibility amplifiers (to provide
13
visibility in 10 yard ranges up to 220 yards), and were sent hourly although the state of
ground was included only every third hour.
2.3
CLID messages were required only at 0900 hours and 2100 hours GMT. They contained
such information as (day and night) maximum and minimum températures (to the nearest 0.1°C),
12-hourly or 24-hourly rainfall (in millimeters and tenths), total sunshine (hours and
tenths), days of snow or sleet, days of hail, ice, etc., days of thunderstorm, days of gale,
snow depth (in whole centimeters), and earth température readings at one and four feet (to
the nearest 0.1°C).
2.4
CLIR messages contained hourly rainfall information (duration, in tenths of an hour,
and amount, in millimeters and tenths) read from autographic traces and transmitted as a
(24-hourly) block message at a predetermined time on the second day after the one to which
the data refer, in order to give time for the detailed reading and analysis of the autographic traces to be made. This method and time-table also applied to the remaining two
messages.
2.5
CLIS messages contained hourly sunshine information (duration, in tenths of an hour)
read from sunshine cards and sent from each recording station as a daily block message on
the second day.
2.6
CLIW messages contained hourly wind information (mean hourly wind direction, in tens
of degrees, and mean hourly wind speed, in knots) from anemograph stations, again in the
form of a daily block message transmitted two days in arrears. Other information, e.g.,
on the highest gust of the day and the number of hours with gusts above certain thresholds,
was also contained in the messages.
2.7
More détails are given in Appendix I. It should be noted that there was a radical
departure from the usual 5-figure grouping of synoptic messages; 2-, 3-, 4- and 6-figure
groups were in fact the norms in thèse messages. Correctly done such non-standard groups
and formats greatly facilitate computer récognition and processing.
3.
Collecting System and proposed processing cycle
3.1
The British télécommunications System includes a network of (duplex) 50-baud lines
radiating from Bracknell to thirteen sub-centres (Main Meteorological Offices) . Each of
thèse is connected by (simplex) lines to its own associated group of outstations (up to 2530 in number). Every hour there is a break in the broadcasts from Bracknell of 15 minutes,
at most, during which period each sub-centre must collect ail the observational material
from its outstations and also disseminate local material (area forecasts, etc.) Outstations
are required to teleprint their own coded messages in turn to the appropriate sub-centre;
they often also hâve to send SYNOPS (or AER0S) received by téléphone from one or more
auxiliary stations, ail via the simplex lines. (More than half of the total coverage of 240
synoptic stations in the British Isles are auxiliary stations and as many as four may submit
their observations by téléphone to a single teleprinter station).
Most of the receiving teleprinters at sub-centres are equipped with reperforators to
assist in the compilation of area message bulletins on teletape, for automatic retransmission
to Bracknell. This can, of course, be done after the 15-minute break has ended and the next
hour's broadcast begun, because of the full duplex working on thèse lines, but even hère
speed is the essence.
3.2
During the trials the précise method of collecting the extra material was left to the
discrétion of the officers-in-charge of sub-centres. The CLEX, etc., messages had to be
separated from the synoptic messages and compiled into bulletins before transmission to
Bracknell. Whether the sub-centre could afford the time to do a double round of calls to
outstations within the permitted 15-minute break (cutting separate tapes for SYNOPS and CLEXor CLID messages each hour) or whether it was better to keep to a single round and sort out
the SYNOPS from the rest by torn-tape methods or manual re-keying of bulletins, depended on
14
local conditions.
CLIR-, CLIS- and CLIW-messages were only obtainable from a few specially-equipped
stations, and thèse obviously could be collected at off-peak times as individual bulletins
(suitably headed and dated) compiled by the outstation itself and manually transmitted to
the sub-centre. The précise method of reading from the autographic traces (whether this
should be done while the charts were mounted on the recording instruments or not) was also
left to local discrétion.
The usual teleprinter procédures, including those for correcting errors (COR's) and
sending late observations (RETARD's) were adopted throughout.
3.3
The first trial in November 1961, was a limited one based on two of the smallest subcentres (involving 17 participating outstations only) and was largely intended to test out
the codes and procédures.
The second trial in February 1963, with revised codes and procédures was more ambitious
and the four largest collecting centres (63 outstations) with the worst collection problems
participated. During this trial some rudimentary computer processing (tabulating of data)
was done and used to analyse irregularities in teleprinter messages, etc.
The third trial in November 1965, was intended to be a final comprehensive one (CLIDmessages were added for the first time) incorporating the best suggestions from previous
trials. It was carried out by ail the sub-centres that had not previously taken part (7 in
ail, comprising 60 participating stations, only about 1/4 being auxiliary stations). Some
further computer processing was done to the extent of merging together SYNOP- and CLEXmessages on magnetic tape, and some checking for internai consistency was attempted. This
was not completely comprehensive and the error statistics produced were based on additional
human editing. However, the computer processing cycle that would hâve been necessary to
check and correct the data and file them on magnetic tape was worked out In some détail and
the repercussions on the work of outstations of abolishing monthly returns and adopting
central processing were investigated.
3.4
The proposed timetable of central computer processing, including error détection
routines, was geared to a five-day cycle. However, since errors may well hâve to be referred
back to the originating station for rectification, further delays may hâve been imposed in
practice of magnitude depending on the methods employed (téléphone, postal or teleprinter).
Thus, complète data for a particular day would not be checked and absorbed into the magnetic
tape files for at least five days, although the SYNOP- CLEX- and CLID-material could well be
checked and available two days earlier. In particular, complète monthly tabulations and
statistics would not be produced until towards the end of the first week of the succeeding
month (still well ahead of the time they are available at présent), although hère again ail
but the spécial (rainfall, sunshine and wind) statistics could be prepared a day or two
earlier and preliminary estimâtes based on incomplète and/or unchecked data could be made
available on the first day, if necessary.
It was intended that the data would bestored in time-within-station number order on
the magnetic tape, each succeeding day's data (starting from the beginning of the month)
being progressively merged in to produce a single réel of tape containing ail of one month's
data. Corrections and late observations would be added during thèse merging runs and information for local and outstation use (including editing purposes) printed or punched out
daily.
The précise editing methods were not fully developed but it is obvious that for this
particular class and order of data the fullest quality control (comprising internai, space
and time consistency checks) would be possible. Moreover, one would be able to automatically
output query messages both on printed forms and on 5-hole paper tape, the latter for automatic
transmission to relevant sub-centres or outstations.
4.
15
Comparative error rates and some particular difficulties
4.1
We use as a yardstick the error rate, based on many years expérience, inhérent in the
traditional method of central editing and transcription to punched cards. Détails are given
in Appendix II; from the figures given therein, it appears that if human checking and card
vérification (by a second punching) were dispensed with, 4-5% of the cards (hourly observations) would on average be found to contain one or more errors at the computer qualitycontrol stage.
During the teleprinter collection trials there was no systematic (human) editing of
the incoming messages either at sub-centres or at Bracknell nor any machine vérification of
the teletapes on which they were recorded. It is considered, therefore, that the above
figure for the error rate (comparing like with like, as far as possible) are the ones that
are applicable. Indeed since the checking reported in the next paragraph included an overall
human scrutiny a figure of 5-6% would probably be more justifiable.
4.2
Concerning teleprinter transmission generally, a little under 670 of observations
(SYNOPS) on average contain one or more errors, détectable by computer quality control, or
are entirely missed. (For more détails see Appendix II).
For the longer combined (SYNOP + CLEX) messages one would expect the error rate to be
proportionately higher, probably about 7%. Sample checks of the first two trials, based on
an eye scrutiny of the incoming teleprinter page copy, indicated little worse than this in
spite of the observers being inexperienced in the use of the CLEX codes.
During the third trial the Climatology Branch of the Meteorological Office undertook
a more thorough analysis of the errors in the tapes containing SYNOP and CLEX messages. This
analysis was partly manual but assisted by computer output of error queries produced by an
earlier (incomplète and untested) version of the quality control programme now in use. This
check showed that about 97» of the observations were missing or contained one or more suspect
values. However, relevant corrections (COR's) and late messages (RETARD's) from outstations
were not even looked at by the programme and some of the queried values were undoubtedly
right (none was referred back to the originating station for confirmation).
In fact, it is considered that a détectable error rate of 6-7% is more realistic.
Thus, bearing in mind that the observers were under pressure (see Section 4.4) and unpractised in the CLEX codes, there is no reason to think that the error rate, if the teleprinter
collection scheme were instituted as a routine, would be more than marginally higher than for
the traditional system. The errors might be différent in kind, indeed there was some incidental évidence that, more often than not, the errors found in one system were différent
from those found in the other.
There was no checking of CLID, CLIR, CLIS and CLIW messages, but there is no inhérent
reason why their error rates should be higher than those for CLEX messages. For the more
regular block (CLIR, CLIS and CLIW) messages they may well be less.
4.3
British Main Meteorological Offices and outstations are often required to give a local
climatological service, e.g., to the press or to aviation authorities. For this purpose they
use copies of their monthly postal returns and sometimes extract some elementary statistics
(means and extrêmes) by hand. Such information is often required by the first day of the
next month although requirements vary greatly both in timetable and content, from place to
place.
Obviously, if monthly returns were abolished and outstations were entirely dépendent
on information supplied from a central installation, their needs could not be met on the
usual time-scale, unless they are prepared to accept outputs based on incomplète data
(omitting the last few days of the month, for example, or only including non-suspect values).
However, source documents (Observational Registers) could be redesigned to include extra
climatological information in a form suitable for local use.
16
Central processing does, of course, offer the advantages within a reasonable timescale of more thoroughly checked data and more elaborate statistical analyses and tabulations than can be done by the outstations themselves.
4.4
By far the greatest difficulty encountered in ail the trials stemmed from inadequacies
in the communication system itself. In the four years between the first and last trials
communications traffic had grown and even the 15-minute break each hour for local exchanges
could not be relied on. Moreover, some officiai stations had closed down and been replaced
by a greater number of auxiliary reporting stations so that incoming traffic on the simplex
lines was greatly increased, particularly at synoptic hours.
Even though only about two-thirds of the total stations participated in the trials the
time pressures were great and must hâve contributed to the errors. It would probably hâve
proved impossible to collect the extra 140,000 or so characters a day that would hâve to be
transmitted manually if the entire scheme were implemented.
Quite modest changes in basic transmission speed, say to 75 or 100 bauds, and/or full
duplex lines to outstations would completely relieve the situation. However, more radical
redesign and replanning of the British télécommunications System are now actively under considération and it was, therefore, decided not to go ahead with even a partial scheme (it
would for example hâve been possible to collect a reduced amount of data) until such time as
the necessary improvements could be effected as part of a rational advance.
5.
General conclusions and remarks
5.1
The main conclusion from thèse trials is that, provided the channels of communication
are capable of bearing the load, the collection and correction of extra climatological information through the télécommunications network is quite feasible. The error rate, in spite
of time pressures, would be manageable and much larger amounts of data* in machineable form
would be available (some two to three weeks) earlier at the data centre.
This collection imposes an extra burden at peak times on outstation staff but there is
the compensation that most if not ail of the monthly postal-return forms could be reduced or
abolished, especially if the local Observational Registers were revised to accommodate the
extra data involved. If this were done, outstations would be able to give as good a local
advisory climatological service as before and if prepared to wait a few days could provide
a much more comprehensive and rigorous one, backed by computer power.
5.2
The spécial codes were found to be easy to use by ail the staff (professional and nonprof essional) involved. However, they are not the only ones possible and différent countries
would probably wish to devise their own. It would, of course, hâve been easier both on the
collection and the processing sides if the CLEX-messages and codes could hâve been integrated
with the SYNOP's but until ail the national cummunications traffic passes through computers,
where the various interests could be sorted out, this is not practicable.
5.3
For foreign data, climatologists are usually more content with purely synoptic material
and there is no reason why incoming teletapes from the international télécommunications
channels should not be used as they stand. Plans are in fact going ahead within the British
Meteorological Service to extract some hundreds of surface (eight times a day) and upper-air
(four times a day) observations, constituting a fairly regular coverage of the Northern
Hémisphère, for inclusion in synoptic order (later also sorted into climatological order) in
a magnetic tape library of foreign data.
Thèse data will be ordered and checked in the computer, but as there is usually no
possibility of referring suspect data back to foreign stations, erroneous (and missing) data
will simply be left blank.
*The data collected would hâve been équivalent to more than 100,000 cards a month, compared
to the 40,000 or so, at présent directly punched at the Bracknell centre.
17
This extraction will start from current teletapes (many of them hâve, in any case, to
be read to magnetic tape in connection with the twice-daily numerical forecasting routines)
and it is hoped that the library will be extended back to the beginning of the présent décade
by drawing on a store of teleprinter tapes accumulated over the last ten years.
6.
Future possibilities
6.1
The developing international télécommunications System under WWW, computer-based and
with U n e speeds of 1200-2400 bauds (or more when satellite communications are utilized in
the 1970's), will require complementary improvements at the national level if full benefit
is to be derived from it. It is conceivable that national networks of (small) computers at
key centres interconnected by 600, 1200 or 2400 baud links (higher for some purposes) will
become fairly common-place.
Such a development could transform the System and information processing possibilities
of any national service so-equipped. It could provide the capacity to absorb much more data,
whether from conventional or automatic observing stations or from other data-logging équipaient, for ail purposes - climatological, synoptic and research. There would be little
reason to préserve the présent data-processing séparation (and inhérent duplication) between
thèse disciplines: the way could be paved towards the adoption of unified general-purpose
codes.
With suitable computers at national centres, equipped with multi-access and parallel
programming facilities, the isolation of outstations could be a thing of the past. Teleprinter terminais, supplemented by improved visual displays, could provide outstations with
two-way "conversational" facilities: they could supply data and solicited corrections to
and command retrieval from a central data bank, with shared access to the total processing
and computing power of the central computer.
Magnetic dises and/or magnetic drums are already available to provide the storage
capacity and random-accessibility required, and further advances towards the manufacture
of truly archivai stores of immense capacity (possibly able to hold ail the world's meteorological data) seem only a matter of time.
6.2
Although the above sketch is not by any means impossibly futuristic much work (hardware
and software development, etc., rethinking of functions and redesign of line networks), not
to mention expense, will be necessary before it can materialize.
However, it is predictable that in the near future we shall see the disappearance of
torn-tape techniques at main communications' centres, with lines directly multiplexed into
computers and with automated message switching and editing. Certainly with this comparatively
modest step forward the difficulties of the trials, described in this paper, could hâve been
overcome even with 50-baud lines. (The traffic to sub-centres could hâve been tailored and
reduced to their individual requirements, providing more time for data collection, and the
extra climatological information could hâve been condensed and integrated with the synoptic
message itself.)
Once coded information is in the memory of the computer and checked, it is an easy
matter to sort it out into purely synoptic, or climatological formats. It would be possible
for Meteorological Services to develop their own integrated codes (or variations of standard
codes) and convert to prescribed international forms for international transmission only.
There is, however, always a price to be paid in computer time for such facilities and it is
probably désirable for integrated codes to be internationally agreed, if only to encourage
and facilitate the flow of more of the world's climatological data on the global télécommunications System to World Data Centres.
18
Appendix I.
a.
CLEX
The message formats and codes
MESSAGES
The symbolic form of the message is:
CLEX iii TTTV
T T T NfE)
www t
where, TTT is the dry-bulb température in degrees Celsius and tenths.
atures 500 is added to the numerical value).
(For négative tempér-
V is the visibility amplifier, which is used only if the visibility is below 220 yards
(i.e., when W in the normal synoptic code is 00 or 01). When the visibility is 220 yards
or more the normal omission symbol (1) is used. The code is given in the table below:
W
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
+
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
= 00
10 yds
- 19 yds
- 29
- 39
- 49
- 59
- 69
- 79
- 89
- 99
-109
W
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
= 01
-
119 yds
129
139
149
159
169
179
189
199
209
219
TTT
is the wet-bulb température in degrees Celsius and tenths.
www
négative températures 500 is added to the numerical value).
(For ice-bulbs with
N is the total amount of cloud ineighths (types C , plus C M when its base is at 8000
ft. or below). When the sky is obscured N is 9.
E is the state of ground and is included only at synoptic hours (00, 03, 06, - - 21
hrs.) At other hours the relevant group is simply reduced to a 4-figure group (no omission
symbol is sent).
b.
CLIP MESSAGES
The symbolic form of the message is:
CLID i i i T T T T T T
x x x n n n
(D S D H D T D G )
(SSS)
RRRR
(T^T T s s s )
G GG
(T 1 T 1 T 1 T 4 T 4 T 4 )
The last four (bracketed) groups are included only at 09 h. The D D D D group is only inJ
cluded for stations able to observe the phenomena throughout the
24-hour period.
The SSS group is only included when there is snow lying.
The T^T.T.T/r, group is only included for stations equipped with earth thermometers.
19
The few stations reading maximum and minimum températures and rainfall only once a day
do so at the morning hour and will, therefore, not transmit a CLID message at the evening
hour 21 h. Eléments not reported by a particular station will either be indicated by the
data omission symbol (/) or omitted according to the detailed instructions.
RRRR. The rainfall in millimeters and tenths is reported as a four figure group. Thus,
0.1 mm would be sent as 0001 and 10.0 mm as 0100. Enter the night rainfall 21-09 h. at the
morning hour (09 h.) and the day rainfall 09-21 h. at the evening hour (21 h . ) . A few
stations read précipitation amounts once a day at 09 h. Such stations will report the rainfall for the 24 hour period 09 h-09 h. at the morning hour 09 h.
When there is a "trace" of précipitation the entry should be 000+. When there is a
small quantity of water in the rain-gauge, not attributable to précipitation and not merely
residual water from a previous reading, but which is believed to arise from dew, hoar frost
or wet fog, the first figure of RRRR is replaced by +. The remaining three figures are coded
normally. When no rainfall measurement is possible RRRR is coded as //// unless it is known
that no précipitation occurred during the period when the coding is 0000.
Examples
a.
b.
c.
T T T
The night maximum température read at the morning hour 09 h. or the day maximum
température read at the evening hour 21 h., both in degrees Celsius and tenths.
For négative températures 500 is added to the numerical value of the température
(e.g. -13.8°C is coded as 638. 0.0°C is coded as 000. and -0.1°C is coded as
501.) The few stations reading maximum température only once a day, at the
morning observation covering the preceding 24-hour period 09 h., to 09 h., report
T T T for this rperiod at the morning
hour 09 h.
&
xxx
T T T
n n n
T T T
sss
A trace attributed to précipitation is coded as 000+.
A trace attributed to wet fog is coded as +00+.
0.3 mm attributed to dew is coded as +003.
The night minimum température read at the morning hour 09 h. and sent at 09 h., or
the day minimum température read at the evening hour 21 h., and sent at 21 h. in
degrees Celsius and tenths. For other remarks see T T T .
xxx
The night grass minimum température in degrees Celsius and tenths read at the
morning hour 09 h. Sent at 09 h. For coding remarks see T T T .
xxx
The total sunshine for the previous day in hours and tenths. The entry for no
sunshine is 000. A station without a sunshine recorder sends ///.
D„
Days of snow or sleet. Send the code figure appropriate (see below) . When both
phenomena occur on one day, send the higher code figure, i.e., 5; codings should
be made even when the fall may yield no measurable amount in the rain-gauge (i.e.
when a trace Is recorded) . When snow crystals, snow flakes or sleet are not observed and any of DJ) D are not 0 enter a 0. If ail of D D D D are 0 the group
nid
S H T G
is not sent. The period is from 0 h. -24 h. for the previous day.
DH
Days of hail, ice, etc. Send the code figure appropriate (see below). When more
than one phenomenon occurs in one day send the highest code figure. For other
remarks see D replacing D by D and D by D , throughout.
DT
Days of thunderstorm. Send a one for each day (0 h. -24 h.) on which there is a
thunderstorm, with or without précipitation (when lightning is seen but no thunder
is heard an entry of 1 is not made). For other remarks see D replacing D by D
S
and D T by D g .
S
T
D
Days of gale. Send the figure 1 for each day 0-24 h. on which a mean wind speed
(i.e. gusts being ignored) of Beaufort force 8 (34 kt.) or more is experienced.
If an anemograph is in use a day of gale is defined as a day on which the mean
speed, corrected to the standard height, reaches or exceeds 34 kt for a period of
20
at least 10 minutes. Otherwise a day of gale is defined as a day on which the
mean wind speed during a period of at least 10 minutes is estimated to hâve
reached or exceeded Beaufort force 8 (34 kt). Days on which only gusts reach or
exceed 34 kt must not be reckoned as days of gale. For other remarks see D replacing D g by Dç and BQ by D g .
SSS
When at the time of the morning observation the ground représentative of the station is half or more covered with snow, code the depth of snow in whole centimeters; thus 3 cm = 003. Measurements are to be made to the nearest whole centime ter, any exact half centimeter being rounded up. When there is no snow or less
than 0.5 cm or snow covers less than half the ground the group is omitted.
T..T..T,
Send the température of the earth at a depth of 1 foot read at the morning hour,
in degrees Celsius and tenths. For coding remarks see T T T .
XXX
Send the température of the earth at a depth of 4 feet read at the morning hour,
in degrees Celsius and tenths. For coding remarks see I T T ,
T,T,T,
X X X
De
Days of snow - code figures:
o
0
1
5
/
D„
H
No sleet snow crystals or flakes
Sleet
Snow crystals or snow flakes
No observation made
Days of hail, ice, etc. - code figures:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
c.
No hail ice, etc. as defined in this code
Ice prisms
Snow grains
Snow pellets
Ice pellets
Hail (5 mm to 9 mm diameter)
Hail (10 mm to 19 mm diameter)
Hall (20 mm diameter or more)
CLIS MESSAGES
The message will be transmitted by ail stations with facilities to record hourly values
of sunshine except when otherwise instructed. The message will be sent before 1100 each day
containing information for the period 0 h. -24 h. for two days previously. E. G., the transmission on the 5th of the month refers to the sunshine for the period 0 h. -24 h. on the 3rd.
The symbolic form of the message in six-hourly blocks (numbered 11, 22, - - -, etc) is :
CLIS
YYiii
11
Sj
S2
S3
S4
S5
S6
22
S?
Sg
S9
S1Q S11 S12
33
S13
S14
S15
S16
S1?
S18
S19
S2Q
S21
S22
S23
S24
YY
is the day of the month of the observations
S
Is the sunshine duration in tenths of an hour. The suffix "n" dénotes the hour in
question. If the sunshine duration is ten tenths the symbol '+' is sent. During the
hours of darkness the sunshine duration is coded as 0. If no record was possible the
omission symbol "/" is sent. The subscript n refers to the hour Local Apparent Time
at which the period terminâtes.
If no sunshine is recorded during the six hours covered by any one of the S groups
the group relating to that period is not sent.
21
If no sunshine is recorded during the 24 hours covered, the following, message Ls sent.
The symbolic form is:
CLIS
YYiii
00
Examples
Sunshine
.9
1.0
and
.7
for
hr.
hr.
hr.
24th July at London Airport (station number 772) vas
for the 60 minutes ending at 11 hr. L.A.T.
CLIS message sent on the 26th
CLIS 24772
22
00009+
33
700000
Sunshine for 25th July at London Airport was NIL
CLIS 25772
d.
00
CLIR MESSAGES
The message will be transmitted by ail stations with facilities to record hourly values
of rainfall except where otherwise instructed. The message will be. sent before 2000 each
day, containing information for the period 0 h. -2'\ h. for two dayi previously. i.e., The
transmission on the 5th of the month refers to the rcinfall for the period 0 h. -24 h. on
the 3rd. The format of the message in numbered six-hourly blocks is
CLIR
YYiii
(11
URRR,
URRR-
URRR„
URRR.
URRRC
URRR,.)
(I, L L L I-I,)
(22
URRR?
URRRg
URRRg
URRR^
URRRn
URRR^)
(I 7 I g I 9 I 1 0 I 1 1 I 1 2 )
(33
URRR^
13
URRR17
14
URRIL ,
15
URRR,,
16
URRR,.. URRR, 0 )
17
18
(44
URRR 19
URRR 2Q
URRR^
URRR 22
URRR 23
1
z
j
4
_>
b
I Z J 4 J O
(I. -I,, I, ,.1- ,1, -,In 0 )
13 14 15 16 17 18
URRR2/+) ( I 1 9 I 2 o I 21 I 22 I 23 I 24 )
YY is the day of the month of observation.
U is the duration in tenths of an hour of précipitation which fell at a rate of not less
than .1 mm an hour during the period 60 minutes ending at the hour. If the rainfall
duration is ten tenths the symbol '+' is sent.
When the duration has had to be estimated because of instrument failure this should be
done by référence to the detailed observations either in the "Présent Weather" column or the
"Remarks" column of the Register. Values thus estimated should be indicated by a coding of
I (see below). When no estimation is possible data omission signais are sent.
RRR
the amount of précipitation in millimeters and tenths which fell in the period of 60
minutes ending at the hour, after adjustment so that the totals for the day-period and
night period agrée with the check rain-gauge read at the evening observation and morning observation. Thèse entries are determined from the recording rain-gauge chart, ensuring that they are consistent with the "Présent Weather" or remarks column of the
Register. Thus, observers should ensure that hours during which précipitation fell are
fully credited with an entry in thèse columns, even if only a 'trace'. (Minor dlscrepancies arising from the fact that the time of determining the "Présent Weather"
entry is not normally the exact hour are permissible; but care should be taken to ensure
that this is the only cause of discrepancies).
When the amount is a trace send 00+.
22
When individual hourly amounts are less than 0.1 mm, yet over a period of such hours a
measurable amount accumulâtes, coding for the individual hours should be that for a
trace, except for the last hour of the séquence which should contain the accumulated
total with the second R coded as +. For example if very slight continuous rain fell
for five consécutive hours accumulating a total of 0.2 mm RRR for the first four hours
would be 00+ whilst that for the fifth hour would be 0+2.
When it is necessary in order to secure agreement with the check gauge, to adjust a
nil rainfall amount to a "trace" or possibly 0.1 mm in respect of a small quantity of
accumulated dew, hoar frost or wet fog (i.e. when the observer knows that there has be
been no précipitation and the water found is probably not a residue from an earlier
measurement) a spécial coding should be made either in the hour appropriate to the
morning hour or to the evening hour (depending on the period of the rain-gauge measurement with which agreement is sought) to show the amount with a + sign as the first
figure of RRR.
E.G., tr (W) = +0+
If the amount exceeds a trace the amount is entered with a + sign as the first figure
of RRR.
E. G., 0.1 mm (fe) = +01
Codings must not be made against individual hours during which dew, frost, wet-fog
etc. was observed by eye. When the amount has had to be estimated, because of instrument failure, this should be done by référence to the detailed observations either
in the "Présent Weather" column or "Remarks" column of the Régis ter. Values thus
estimated should be indicated by a coding of I. When no estimation is possible data
omission signais should be sent "//".
If no rainfall is recorded during the six hour period covered by one line that line
will be omitted.
If no rainfall is recorded during the 24 hours covered the following message is sent:
CLIR
YYiii
00
Rainfall indicator
0
1
2
3
duration and amount read from rain record
rain record defective-u estimated or omitted, RRR true value
rain record defective-u true value, RRR estimated or omitted
rain record defective-u and RRR both estimated or omitted
When ail six I's in any 6 figure group are 0's the group is not sent.
Examples
"Rainfall at Hullavington (station number 637) on 18th June was as follows (being zéro
if not stated):iur ending
G.M.T.
04
05
06
07
08
19
20
21
22
23
24
Duration
Hours
.3
.2
1.0
.6
.7
0
.3
.7
.6
.5
0
Amount
Remarks
Mm.
6.5
4.3
7.6
8.1
3.0
trace
1.7
4.3 )
3.8 )
4.8 )
0
rain record defective
u and RRR estimated
23
CLIR message (sent on 20th)
CLIR 18637
11
22
44
0000
6081
000+
0000
7030
3017
0000
0000
7043
3065
0000
6038
2043
0000
5048
+076
0000
0000
00330
There was no rainfall at Hullavington on 19th June.
CLIR 1963 7
e.
00
CLIW MESSAGES
The message will be transmitted by certain anemograph stations. The message will be
sent before 2200 Z each day containing information for the period 0 h.-24 h. for two days
previously, i.e. the transmission on the 5th of the month refers to the anemograph records
for the period 0 h.-24 h. on the 3rd. The format of the message is:
CLIW
YYiii
ddff
ddff2
ddff.
ddff.
4
ddff.
5
ddff6
(K l K 2 K 3 K 4 K 5 K 6 )
ddff?
ddffg
ddff 9
ddff 1Q
ddffn
ddff 12
(K7K8K9K10KUK12)
ddff 13
ddff 14
ddff 15
ddff 16
ddff 17
ddff 18
(K 1 3 K 1 4 K 1 5 K 1 6 K 1 7 K 1 8 )
ddff 19
ddff 20
ddff 21
ddff 22
ddff 23
ddff 24
(K19K20K21K22K23K24)
d d f f f
g g g 8 8
GG
gg
ddff
m m m m
h h h h
g g G G
YY is the day of the month of the observation.
dd
the mean hourly wind direction in tens of degrees (true) for the period 60 minutes
ending at the hour n. Calm is sent as 00. When the vane was sticking owing to
insensitiveness to light winds send ++. (See also coding for K ) .
Estimâtes when the record is détective are sent as made, but see also coding for K.
Should it be impossible to estimate values when the record is defective send the
data omission signais //, but see also coding for K.
ff
The mean hourly wind speed In knots for the period of 60 minutes ending at the hour n.
The entry must consist of two figures.
Estimâtes when the record is defective are sent as made, but see also coding for K.
Should it be impossible to estimate values when the record is defective send the
data omission signais //, but see also coding for K.
K
anemograph indicator
0
1
2
3
dd and ff
anemogram
anemogram
anemogram
both measured from anemogram
defective-dd estimated or omitted, ff true value
defective-dd true value, ff estimated or omitted
defective-both dd and ff estimated or omitted.
When ail six K's in any group are zeroes the group is not to be sent.
d d
g g
Direction of highest gust of the day in tens of degrees. When it is probable that the
highest gust of the day has occurred during a period when the wind speed record was
defective an estimate of the maximum gust may only be made at a station equipped with
a dial-reading cup generator anemometer which has been closely watched. In such cases
24
50 is added to d d to indicate that the highest gust has been estimated.
vane was sticking owing to insensitiveness to light winds send ++.
f f f speed of the highest gust of the day in knots.
g g g
When the
10 knots is coded as 010.
GGgg
Time in hours and minutes to the nearest five minutes of the highest gust of the day.
d d
mm
Direction in tens of degrees of mean wind for the hour centering at the maximum gust.
f f
m m
Speed in knots of mean wind for the hour centering at the maximum gust.
The highest gust is measured directly from the highest excursion made by the pen on
the record. It is to be measured to the nearest 1 kt. The mean direction over a period of
2 or 3 minutes at the time of the gust is to be given as d d . The time of the occurrence
8 g
of the gust is to be entered to the nearest 5 minutes.
The period covered by the day for d d f f may be, for example, the hour from 23 h 31m
on the preceding day to Oh. 31m on the date or entry but in ail other coded éléments the
period covered by the day is from midnight to midnight G.M.T.
h h
g g
No. of hours with gusts of 34 knots or over.
The entries should be made according to the following method:
(a) Take the period during which gusts above the specified limit were occurring and
count the number of hours from the first gust to the las t.
(b) If in this period an interval of more than 60 minutes occurs during which no
gusts exceeded the limit, then there are two periods to be dealt with as in (a).
(c) Anything less than a complète hour should be counted as an hour; for example, if
the time from the first gust to the last was 55 minutes the period would be counted
as one hour; if it was 65 minutes it would be counted as 2 hours.
(d) If a period of gusts includes midnight, the number of hours in the whole period
should be obtained as in (a) and allocated to the two days in proportion to the
duration before and after midnight; e.g. total duration 410 minutes, 130 before and
280 after midnight, the 7 hours would be allocated, 2 before midnight and 5 after. If
the total duration is 50 minutes, say 30 before and 20 after, the 1 hour would be
allocated to the first day and nothing to the second day.
(3) If an anemograph velocity distribution scale is used, only the hours during which
gusts exceed the appropriate half-knot horizontal rule should be counted.
When the anemograph record is defective for the whole or part of the day:
(i) If the observer is confident that the available anemograph record for the day
contains ail the hours with the gust data required then the number of hours are coded
in the normal manner.
(ii) If the fréquent observations of gusts are available from a cup-generator anemometer,
thèse observations may be used to supplément the anemograph record during the period it
was defective. In thèse circumstances, 30 should be added to the total number of hours
of gusts.
(iii) If the record is defective and the observer is not confident that the available
anemograph record includes ail hours with gust data required and if fréquent observations of gusts from a cup-generator anemometer are not available, the data omission
25
signais "//" w i H be sent.
h_h
G G
No. of hours with gusts of 48 knots or over.
See notes for h h
g g
Appendix II.
Error Rates
Error détection and correction are complex and difficult subjects . The following
statistics are the best that could be obtained without a very lengthy spécial investigation.
The computer quality control referred to relies on internai consistency checking only and
although more objective and thorough than human editing does not, at présent, contain the
comparison checks (both in space and time) which enter into the latter.
a.
Traditional punched-card System
For British hourly and fixed-hourly observations recorded on monthly returns from
Officiai and Auxiliary Stations, on average 2-3% are found to contain one or more errors at
the (human) editing stage. Of thèse, one would only expect l-2%> to be detected by the
présent computer quality-control programme.
Card punching (one observation per card) without vérification by a second punching
introduces a further 370 of errors, of which during a sample check only about 2% were picked
up by computer quality control.
Another 1%, escape both the human and the machine controls referred to above and would
be found by the computer. (Some 300,000 cards of hourly data hâve recently been converted
to magnetic tape on the Meteorological Office computer and subjected to further quality
control via the stored programme. In spite of being pre-edited and fully verified they were
still found to contain 1.0% of errors).
Thus, if no human editing* and machine vérification were done before the cards were
read into the computer, and computer quality control were solely relied on to detect errors,
then 4-5% of them would hâve been found to contain one or more errors. There would, of
course, be a (small) percentage of errors still undetected.
b.
Errors inhérent in teleprinter transmission
A check carried
weeks of 1967 (13,000
one or more errors or
(more usually because
out via the computer for 50 British stations during the last ten
possible SYNOPS) showed that 5.8% of the hourly observations contained
were entirely missing because of failure to recognize the heading
of a faulty date/time group).
Of thèse, about 2 1/4% were source errors, detected by the computer quality control;
a further 2 1/4%, were ascribed to teleprinter or teleprinter operator faults and the remaining 1 1/4% to poorly perforated teletapes or faulty computer readers.
*This refers to editing at the Bracknell centre only.
checked at the observing station before posting.
Ail returns are checked and double-
26
AUTOMATED DATA PROCESSING AT THE
UNITED STATES AIR FORCE ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL APPLICATIONS CENTER
by
Lt. Col. John R. Collins, Jr.
United States Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center
Washington, D.C.
PREFACE
The United States Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center uses an IBM
7044 computer System to process world-wide meteorological télétype traffic, extracting surface and upper-air data for climatological purposes. At the présent time, processing is
not accomplished on a real-time basis but is delayed for the inclusion of mailed data from
areas in which substantial amounts of traffic may hâve been withdrawn from transmission
because of communications backlogs arising from circuit outages or overloads.
The computer programs use a library of weather bulletin headings (with associated data
types and WMO block numbers) and require the positive identification of a bulletin heading
and valid date-time group before processing is attempted. Each observation is examined for
internai consistency and those observations not having reasonable resemblance to the data
type of the bulletin being processed are discarded. Observations not having a valid station
number (or acceptable latitude-longitude, and in an océan area, for ships) are also discarded.
Ail observations for one day (GCT) are put into standard storage format, split into
separate surface and upper-air files, sorted into synoptic séquence, and incorporated into
synoptic files which hâve their time origin in the fall of 1964.
1.
INTRODUCTION
a. The United States Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center (ETAC)
provides, among other services, climatological support to agencies of the United States Air
Force and the United States Army. Service is normally provided to using agencies on a consultant basis through Staff Meteorologists at various field locations. The Center has its
headquarters in Washington, D.C, and has one of its divisions co-located with the National
Weather Records Center of the Environmental Science Services Administration in the GroveArcade Building, Asheville, North Carolina.
b. Since climatological services obviously dépend on a data base, a large portion of
the ETAC effort, both in Washington and in Asheville, is devoted to the acquisition of
suitable data. The principal tools are high-speed electronic digital computers and punchcard equipment, supported by staffs of computer Systems analysts, programmers, and operators.
It should be noted that most of the Systems analysts and programmers are also meteorologists
or mathematicians.
c. A major limitation to the use of computers in developing a data base is the conversion of available data into computer-processable form. This conversion has, for many
years, involved the processing of manuscript (handwritten or printed) data by the use of
punch-card equipment. Since some types of data will continue to be available only in this
form, the punch-card System will continue for an indefinite period although further development of optical readers for data conversion may permit more extensive automation of this
opération.
AUTOMATED DATA PROCESSING
27
d. Data in the world-wide meteorological communications Systems, on the other hand,
are already essentially in a computer-processable form if tapped at the appropriate time.
While data from this source may not equal in quality and completeness that from checked
original records and, although subject to the uncertainties of communications, the teleprinter traffic remains an immense source of the raw material from which a useful climatological data base can be established,
e. The remainder of this discussion, then, will be devoted to a gênerai description
of the methods used by ETAC to extract data from global teleprinter traffic. No knowledge
of computer Systems or programming is assumed, but some familiarity with meteorological
communications is implied. Also, the procédures to be described are in use at the Washingtor
headquarters of ETAC.
2.
DATA COLLECTION
a. The United States Air Force opérâtes a high-speed meteorological collection,
editing, and relay network which is controlled from a station at Tinker Air Force Base, near
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Ail available meteorological teleprinter traffic is input to this
System for operational use and is also stored on magnetic tapes for subséquent processing
by ETAC.
b. In some areas it is also necessary to collect data on punched paper tapes to overcome possible data loss through communications outages or overloads. Upon its arrivai at
ETAC, the punched paper-tape data is placed on magnetic tapes by the use of Model 1720
Converters manufactured by the Digi-Data Corporation, Hyattsville, Maryland.
c. Both magnetic and paper tapes are airmailed to ETAC, arriving within two to ten
days after data date. We expect to hâve, eventually, a direct connection with the collection
system so that processing can be accomplished on a real-time basis.
3.
DATA PROCESSING SYSTEM
a. Processing of the teleprinter traffic at ETAC is accomplished through the use of
an International Business Machines (IBM) Model 7044 computer System. An extensive set of
computer programs has been developed to perfora the pure processing functions and, at the
same time, to tally and report unusual data conditions which may indicate some change in
station number assignments, reporting practices, or communications procédures.
b.
Pre-Processing
(1) Because of size limitations of the presently-installed computer system, the
first processing step séparâtes the teleprinter traffic for one radio day (0000 through 2359,
GCT) into files of miscellaneous, surface, and upper-air data. Some of the collectives, of
course, contain several types of data and may be included in each of the files. In order to
identify the data as to type, we maintain a library of collective or bulletin headings
according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convention in which the first word
consists of two characters for data type and two characters for the geographical area of
the included observations. The second word of four characters identifies the communications
center which originated the collective. Régional and national collective headings which do
not conform to this convention are also included.
(a) Each bulletin heading is cross-referenced to indicate the legitimate
data types for that heading, since the two-letter designator is not always spécifie. For
example, some bulletins of the SM type (main surface synoptic) routinely include upper-air
data. The processing may be accelerated, also, if it is known that a particular bulletin
contains only land station reports or only ship reports, as opposed to a bulletin which may
contain either or both.
(b)
Each heading is also associated with a list of legitimate WMO block
28
numbers, again to provide more spécifie information than is sometimes possible with the twoletter area designator.
(c) A primary source of information for thèse libraries is "Weather Reporting
(Transmissions)", WMO Publication No. 9, Tp. 4, Volume C. The recently-inaugurated system
of indicating changes to this séries of publications through the METNO bulletins filed with
the teleprinter traffic is a welcome innovation.
(d) The computer program used in this phase also prints out for visual inspection any two-word combinations which resemble bulletin headings, but are not identifiable as legitimate headings. Those combinations which appear regularly are evaluated
periodically for possible acceptance as new headings.
(e) A relatively large portion of the programming for bulletin-heading
identification is devoted to the recovery of headings which may be partially erroneous
because of communications errors or incorrectly-prepared collectives. Those familiar with
teleprinter opérations will realize that the omission of the shift character which distinguishes numeric from alphabetic text occurs with some regularity. Thèse errors, and many
others, are detected and corrected at this time.
(2) The pre-processor program also establishes the date and time for each
collective, accepting those collectives for the previous day as well, to enable the recovery
of delayed data. Again, an extensive effort is made to detect and correct errors. Processing
on a delayed basis removes some of the correction possibilities that are inhérent in a realtime system. For example, a collective received about 1900 GCT on 14 May but purporting to
be for 15 May could be corrected with high reliability to read "14 May" in a real-time
situation. No such assumption can be made in a delayed-processing system and, such an error
will resuit either in the loss of the data or in its being retained with a spurious date.
Since most upper-air reports and surface ship reports contain internai day and hour information, knowledge of the bulletin date-time is not essential in thèse cases but is still useful for checking purposes.
c. The Miscellaneous data file is made up of those collectives which contain other
types of data, usually in variable formats, which are potentially useful to the climatologist. Data such as RAREP and SFERICS reports are retained in the original collective form
and are available for retrieval in printed form as required.
d.
Surface Data Validation and Extraction
(1) Processing routines are available for surface reports transmitted in the
following code forras :
FM 11.C - SYNOP
FM 12 .C - AERO
FM 13.A - SPECIAL AERO
FM 15.D - METAR
FM 16.D - SPECI
FM 21.D, 22.D, 23 .D - SUREACE SHIP REPORTS
In addition, reports transmitted in the various national symbolic codes used in Canada and
the United States are processed.
(2) Reports are first formatted to détermine the last group of the observation,
usually indicated by an appended spécial character, and to remove any repeated groups that
29
may hâve been inserted by the transmitting station in indicating error corrections. In the
absence of the spécial terminating character, surface reports are normally assumed to consist of one teleprinter line. This formatting process also séparâtes any run-together groups
which may hâve arisen from the omission of a space or from the inclusion of an extra character .
(3) The report is next checked for valid identification for land stations or
for acceptable location for ships. Land report identifications are accepted if they are
contained in a station library which is based on WMO Publication No. 9, Tp. 4, Volume A, and
if the identification is permissible for the collective in which the report was received.
Ship reports are screened against a land-water grid to delete those reports with gross
position errors.
(4) Based on the expected data type as indicated by the bulletin heading, the
report is examined for conformity with the characteristics of the appropriate code form. It
is important to note that this examination is made "out of context," that is, without référence to reports for surrounding stations or to reports from the same location at prevlous
times. Each inconsistency is weighted as to severity on an arbitrary scale and a tally kept;
the report is rejected under that code form if the tally exceeds an arbitrary limit. Reported conditions such as wind direction greater than 360 degrees, dew-point température
warmer than dry-bulb température, or restricted visibility without some associated weather
phenomenon, for example, are weighted more severely than non-conformities arising from
isolated missing characters resulting from communications difficulties. If more than one
code form is possible for the report, it is also tested against criteria for the other types
prior to acceptance. With the exception of isolated instances involving SYNOP and AERO
codes, a clear "best code" or "no code" décision is easily reached.
(5) Accepted reports are output with individual weather parameters arranged in
the order specified by the SYNOP (or SYNOP SHIP) codes.
e.
Upper Air Data Validation and Extraction
(1) Upper-air processing routines are available for reports transmitted in the
following code forms:
FM 32.D - PILOT
FM 33.D - PILOT SHIP
FM 35.D - TEMP
FM 36.D - TEMP SHIP
FM 39.C - ROCOB
FM 40.C - ROCOB SHIP
FM 41.D - CODAR
In addition, weather reconnaissance and other aircraft reports are processed, as are PILOT
and TEMP reports from areas In which the WMO code System is not used.
(2) Identification and formatting routines perform the same functions as with
surface data except that, in the absence of the spécial character indicating the last group
of the report, the observation is assumed to be no longer than fifteen teleprinter lines.
Encountering the end of the collective or the message identifier letters (WMO Code 2852) for
the next report, of course, also signais the end of the current report.
(3) The message identifier letters are used to provide transfers to the
30
appropriate validation routines. In the absence of thèse letters, the expected data types
for the collective are used. Again, each report is evaluated against code characteristics
and is accepted for further processing only if reasonable consistency exists.
f.
Processing of Accumulated Reports
(1) At this point in the processing routine, data are now in standard formats
and ready for machine processing in much the same fashion as if punched cards had been prepared for each observation. This has been attained, though, in about three hours of computer
time as opposed to the hundreds of man-hours that might otherwise hâve been expended.
(2) After ail data for a given day hâve been processed through the steps described
previously, the accepted reports for that day are collected into respective surface data and
upper-air data magnetic tape files. Processing of each file progresses through similar
subséquent steps so that it will suffice to indicate the additional opérations without
spécification as to the data type involved.
(3) The data for the day are sorted into ascending order by block and station
number and then by hour, so that any duplicate observations for a given station and time are
brought together. Ail exact duplicates (arising from multiple receipt of the same collective
or from the inclusion of the same report in several collectives) are eliminated as are those
duplicates which differ in minor respects due to communications errors. A small percentage
of inexact duplicates remains, however. Thèse represent grossly dissimilar reports which
arise from severe communications errors or from incorrectly dated or timed reports, as described earlier. Some context is necessary for final décisions in thèse cases.
(a) Output from the duplicate élimination routine is re-sorted by time so
that ail reports for each reporting time are filed together. This file is then available
for use in those studies requiring synoptic-ordered data. Our applications using data from
this kind of file provide enough context so that the small volume of incorrectly identified
or timed data is easily removed.
(b) The duplicate élimination output is also retained in its station-ordered
form as raw input to be used in constructing station climatological files. Again, the
further routines used in this procédure provide the necessary context to remove any invalid
reports.
4.
SUMMARY
In summary, ETAC has established successful procédures for the création of synopticordered climatological data files through the computer processing of global meteorological
teleprinter traffic, with such files available since the fall of 1964. In addition, the
processing System provides station-ordered files which are available as raw input data for
the création of station climatological files.
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32
MICRO-MINI MEDIA
For use in reading or making copies from microfilm, microfiche, or aperture cards,
there are a number of pièces of equipment available. Improvements are bei.ig made rather
rapidly in this equipment.
Microfilm, microfiche, aperture cards, and nicro-cards are terras with which most of
you no doubt are familiar, but perhaps a word of explanation is necessary before we discuss
the various usages of thèse types of miniaturization. Microfilm in gênerai use is either
16 millimeters or 35 millimeters wide and usually is filed in 100 ft. rolls. 70 millimeter
and 105 millimeter film is available for specialized uses. Microfiche is the name given to
a pièce of film usually 4" x 6" or 5" x 8" on which micro images of material hâve been
placed. Aperture cards are the familiar accounting cards with a hole eut in them, and in
this hole a pièce of microfilm is attached. Micro-cards are similar to microfiche except
that the card is not transparent.
Microfiche may be prepared either from strips of 35 millimeter or 16 millimeter film
being placed side by side and copied, or by a spécial step and repeat caméra which uses 105
millimeter film. This type caméra takes a roll of pictures the proper length for the 4" x
6" microfiche and then moves back and repeats another line until the 4" x 6" area lias been
filled. It then advances to the next 4" x 6" area.
For préparation of aperture cards there is semi-automatic equipment available or the
job can be done by hand. The accounting card has punched in it the identification of the
blueprint, parts list, instruction list, etc. This may be on the pièce of microfilm which
has been inserted in the hole in the accounting card.
Micro-cards are prepared by printing microfilm images from the microfilm onto an
opaque film or paper.
The National Weather Records Center started its microfilm program in 1946 when the
center was still in New Orléans. Much of the filming at this time was done on 35 mm caméras
at Régional Weather Records Processing Centers scattered over the country in seven différent
locations. Thèse seven locations were Consolidated to three in 1950 where the bulk of the
microfilm program continued. Two years later the records center at New Orléans was moved to
Asheville. At this time the microfilm program was dropped at the three Régional Weather
Records Processing Centers and was started by the NWRC in Asheville. From 1952 until the
présent time only a partial program has been carried on due to lack of sufficient funds for
this purpose. In the past three years the microfilm program has been accelerated but still
is not a complète program including ail of the documents coming to the NWRC. Now we are
accumulating nearly 3,000,000 documents per year and are filming about one half of thèse.
For this filming both 35 mm and 16 mm high resolution film is used. Also both flat bed and
flow type caméras are used.
The material which we microfilm routinely consists of surface hourly records, surface
3 and 6 hourly records, autographic records, télétype records, upper air forms, National
Meteorological Center surface and upper air charts, and some spécial jobs for other government agencies. We make microfiches for about 300 hourly stations.
The past year our film accumulation was as follows: FOSDIC film - about 4,000 réels;
Radar film - about 1200 réels; satellite film - about 2000 réels; Leletype data - 400 réels;
and original documents and autographic records - about 3,900. This 11,600 total is about
double our average accumulations before our accelerated program.
For most of our records we use planetary type flat bed caméras. The punched cards
are photographed with an anamorphic lens which reduces card size by a factor of 43 to 1
vertically and 24 to 1 horizontally. This compresses the image so that the rectangular
punches appear as a 0.06 mm square. The images run across the 16 mm film. There are about
11 card pictures to the inch or about 12,000 to the 100 ft. réel. The cards feed through
the caméra at 800 per minute.
MICRO-MINI MEDIA
33
The past year our photo-lab processed 17,500 réels of film including original film,
copying of film, and film processed for other agencies.
Some parts of the microfilm industry are standardized while others maintain that
standardization is not a "must". In fact, standardization would not be to the advantage of
the consumer. Mr. Baptie of Microcard Corp. says that in the next five years or so there
will be a need for specially designed and specially engineered Systems. He says that this
may shake down in time to a standard séries of Systems but that as microforms are to see
optimum acceptance, Systems will hâve to be both standard and modular. It seems to be the
consensus among microfilm engineers and planners that anyone planning to use microfilm
should make a searching appraisal of existing Systems and a thorough évaluation of the type
of microform to be used before buying a System just to "keep up with the Joneses." He says
that the actual microfilm System must be economically justifiable and hâve the flexibility
to be updated quickly and economically and not be limited in its ability to provide information upon demand.
Most users of microforms use more than one type. For example, Consolidated Edison
Company uses several différent types of microfilm Systems with différent indexing—coding,
search and retrieval methods. One file contains gas, electric and steam service records
for three million customers in New York City and Weschester County. Thèse are used to
answer about 5,000 inquiries per day. The indexing is on a computer with a video display
unit at the desk of those persons answering questions by téléphone or by mail.
Systems are now in use which involve a film readout from a computer. This film can be
in the form of microfiche. Magnavox Corp. has a computer controlled film and search System
using 3 in. long pièces of 35 mm microfilm. The total storage capacity of this System is
900,000 images. A System under development for Fort Monmouth, New York to be installed late
in 1966 has a total capacity of 1,800,000 images. The Mosler Safe Company is developing a
System which will allow its Selectriever, which provides 10-second access to any one of
200,000 microfiche, to operate under computer command. Houston Fearless Corp. has the
System known as FilmCARD which provides random access to any one of 100,000 microimages
within 4 seconds and is binary coded. The Recordak Miracode System is not computer controlled but is capable of searching the file of one million index-coded documents on microfilm and displaying the required data within 15 seconds. This System can also make a photo
print on pushbutton command. This System costs about $30,000 compared up to $250,000 for
some of the computer controlled Systems.
Collins Radio Company now uses convenient film readout from a computer to produce a
55,000-page report for distribution to 22 locations. The data are transferred from magnetic
tape to 16 mm microfilm by a SC 4020 computer. J. C. Penney's Catalog Div. also uses 16 mm
film output from its SC 4400 computer for use in making 6 x 8 microfiche from which diazo
duplicates are made. J. C. Penney's microfiche directory is prepared every two weeks instead
of 28,800 printed pages. The directory now consists of 80 microfiche. Sears Roebuck and
Company is testing a System which may involve the use of high density packed 4 x 6 in. microfiche. This will permit placing thousands of pages of data on a 4 x 6 microfiche instead of
about 100 pages of data.
High density packing of film images is a technique that is just being introduced. It
involves reducing images from roll film. The cost of preparing master plates is appréciable
but can be prorated over the number of copies made from the plate so that if several copies
are made the cost can be almost as low as $1.00 per copy. This is rather expensive when
compared to some of the very inexpensive methods now used. The advantage is in the saving
of space. This cost will no doubt be reduced with further advances in the technique.
Another récent development is colored microfiche. This would hâve very little application
in a data center. Another new development is Multiplex-Recording Photography. This technique
permits recording up to 400 separate black and white or colored pictures on the same négative
with the picture being the same size as the négative. A film prepared by this process requires a spécial viewer or projector as individual pictures appear at the sélection of the
operator either in séquence or at random.
34
MICRO-MINI MEDIA
The System of high density packing that I hâve detailed information on is the PhotoChromic Micro-Image (PCMI) System developed by the National Cash Register Company. A new
type of film is used in this process. It consists of a molecular dispersion of photochromic
(light-sensitive) dye on a suitable substrate. Normally transparent, the molécules of
photochronic dye become opaque when exposed to ultraviolet light. If an image is projected
on the photochromic film it is immediately visible without a development process.
Unlike conventional photographie film, photochromic films are completely grain free
and are capable of very high resolution. They will retain images with resolution greater
than 1,000 lines per millimeter. In fact, since reaction occurs at the molecular level the
resolution is practically unlimited.
The Ultraviolet formed image can be erased at will with white light if corrections are
necessary. High quality microfilm (120 lines per mm or better) is used for projecting the
very small images on the photochromic plate to form the ultraviolet image.
From the ultraviolet image several high resolution master copies are made. From thèse
masters the dissémination copies are made. The image side of thèse copies is covered with
a protective laminate. Because of the extrême short depth of focus of high magnification
Systems, surface defects such as scratches, dirt, and fingerprints do not adversely affect
the projected micro-image to any significant degree. Therefore, the copies are quite
durable and need no spécial handling or filing. They hâve the archivai properties of high
quality silver halide images. The image quality of the dissémination copies is about 700
lines per millimeter or equal to high quality microfilm at a 30 to one réduction ratio.
Incidentally, the copy protection is the same as with any other publishing médium.
Individual pages may be duplicated but the laminate positively precludes contact printing.
Réduction ratios of 150 to 250 to one are usually used. Although greater réduction
ratios are possible there is no suitable reader equipment available for higher réduction
ratios. Relatively inexpensive reader equipment is available that provides magnification
of 115 times. More expensive equipment is available with a magnification of 200 times.
No doubt the PCMI System will be improved and cost reduced in time. Also it is
possible that other companies are doing research which may lead to even better and cheaper
Systems for making micro-mini images.
35
QUALITY CONTROL PROCEDURES FOR METEOROLOGICAL DATA
by
V. V. Filippov
Institute of Aeroclimatology
and WMO Consultant on Quality Control
Moscow, USSR
INTRODUCTION
Meteorologists hâve, at ail times, attached great importance to the quality of meteorological data, and this is so at ail levels frora the observing point through the distribution
stage to the final user.
At the présent time, traditional methods of manual control are becoming less and less
suitable.
The need for basic new methods in quality control of meteorological data is justified
by the following factors of modem progress:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Rapid growth in volume of information;
Increased processing capabilities;
Growth in need for its quality; and
Increased interest of National Services in global information.
The growth in volume of information results from the development of networks as well
as from new methods of observation.
Standard observation data are used for scientific studies on an increasing scale and
mainly for investigating global processes.
There is, at the same time, an increasing demand for global information for operational
purposes. This last tendency is connected with the development of supersonic civil aviation,
space activities and others.
The urgency of the problem of extending and of increasing the reliability of quality
control of meteorological information, on the basis of modem scientific and technical
facilities, was reflected in the Recommendations of the two following Working Groups:
(1)
(2)
CCL W/G on Climatological Data Aspects of the WWW, at the end of 1965; and
CAS W/G on the Processing and Exchange of Meteorological Data for Research, in
October 1966.
On the basis of a proposai by the second Working Group, a World Weather Watch Planning
Study was initiated and entitled Planning Study P.33 "Quality Control Procédures for Meteorological Data" .
The chairmen from four working groups, whose terms of référence included quality control procédures, met in September 1967 to examine the essential aspects of this study and to
recommend guiding principles for further work to be performed by the consultant. Thèse
mainly concerned the exécution of the study.
In order to provide working material to be used as a basis for this study, information
36
was sought and received from Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Fédéral Republic of Germany,
Japan, Norway, Sweden, U.K., U.S.A. and U.S.S.R.
The author of this report would like to avail himself of this pleasant opportunity to
express once again his gratitude for the well-wishing collaboration and for the valuable
background material received during the preparatory stage as well as during his visit to
various countries.
PURPOSE OF P. 33
To provide guidance to Members, as required, regarding methods of attaining and maintaining accuracy in the différent types of meteorological data by various quality control
procédures and to suggest an integrated system of checking of data for World Weather Watch.
The results would be important in ensuring the maximum benefit from WWW to the entire
meteorological community.
DESCRIPTION
It is generally agreed that quality control of meteorological data begins before the
installation of instruments at observation points and ends with the last stage of processing
prior to delivery to the final user. In conformity with this présentation, planning study
P.33 consists of the following sub-divisions:
1)
Quality control at primary observation points;
2)
Quality control of meteorological data during transmission and transcription;
3)
Quality control at meteorological data collection processing and storage centres;
and
4)
Control of meteorological Information at numerical processing centres.
The subject under study cannot be covered completely by the above mentioned sub-divisions. Further problems arising from thèse sub-divisions require greater complementary
work. For example:
1)
Reliability and control of summarized data;
2)
Certain aspects of the theory of quality control of meteorological data, such as:
(a)
Physical and statistical parameters of reliability, namely temporal spatial
auto-correlation of meteorological séries, statistical laws of error distribution and their parameters, confidence intervais of important déviations,
and other parameters.
(b) Fluctuations of instantaneous and mean-value measurement of meteorological
parameters and physical précision of observations;
(c)
Reliability in connection with density in time and space of meteorological
information;
(d)
Smoothing of fields of meteorological éléments and micro-clima tic corrections.
Undoubtedly, many more points could be raised, perhaps during the course of this study.
The report I am presenting is mainly intended for specialists engaged in the observation, collection, storage, processing and distribution of meteorological data for différent
purposes. The report concerns the technology of processing only inasmuch as quality control
of meteorological information is concerned.
37
The chapter concerned with errors in the transmission of data will be of interest to
the symposium mainly in respect of urgent climatological bulletins and raw observation
signais transmitted over télécommunication networks.
Chapter IV which is still in préparation will contain a short review of quality control methods for upper air data intended for use in numerical analysis and prognosis models.
Quality control of meteorological information for numerical purposes will be further
discussed in détail at the symposium on numerical weather prédiction to be held in Tokyo at
the end of this year. Besides, there already exist in certain countries publications on
this subject and new ones are in préparation. There is reason to believe that new publications will make use of the knowledge gained by international expérience in this field since
détails about the control for numerical prognosis purposes are included in periodical
reports of individual National Services.
BASIC IDEAS AND PRINCIPLES OF STUDY P. 33
The basic ideas and principles of the study can be grouped into the following paragraphs:
1) The reliability of meteorological information presented to the final user dépends
on errors which hâve accumulated during the various stages of its handling and processing;
2) Each handling and processing stage carries its own spécifie errors. The central
units of computers appears to be the only exception, the reliability of which is several
orders higher than the reliability of meteorological data. Unfortunately their peripheral
equipment does notpossess such a high reliability:
3) The various sources of errors in meteorological information can be grouped under
three main headings:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Errors in technical installations;
Errors in observation and handling methods;
Subjective errors by observers and operators.
4) As a rule, the nature of errors can be detected on the basis of thorough theoretical
and expérimental investigations.
5) The filtering out of doubtful data is connected, to a considérable degree, with
the idea of permissible déviations from practically correct values.
6) Values of meteorological information correct for one spécifie use may contain
errors if thèse errors are not of direct importance to that spécifie scientific and practical
use.
7) The filtration of errors of meteorological information should be performed at each
stage. Particularly important is the control of information prior to delivery to the user.
At the présent time this control can be most effectively carried out by computer. The main
advantage of control with the help of a computer consists in the expediency, the objectivity
and the versatility when compared to manual control.
The effectiveness of such control dépends also on the optimum reciprocal action of man
(specialist) and computer. The reciprocity is needed first of ail because the machine control is strictly formalistic and cannot detect ail varieties of errors; on the other hand
détection of rare but important errors with the help of a complicated programme is very often
not justified economically. Finally, the rare anomalous natural phenomena represent spécial
interest in many respects and should be the subject of supplementary and thorough control by
experienced experts with addition of supplementary materials.
8)
The basic idea of prévention is to shorten as far as possible to a minimum the
38
technological chain of handling of information and to exclude the subjective factor as the
principal source of errors. Practically it leads to automation of observations and processing of raw signais by computers.
9) International collaboration in the field of quality control of meteorological
information could be based on the following conditions:
(i) Any national service, as potential user of the global information, needs
first of ail the assurance of the reliability of this information independently of methods of réception;
(ii) The adoption of an international standard expressing reliability of data
from différent origins;
(iii) The international standard terminology could include the expression of
reliability of: observations, initial processing, transmission and control
opérations, including the définition of criteria and levels of reliability
in the various stages of handling;
(iv) It is désirable that thèse standards contain an indication of the minimum
and maximum reliability of meteorological data depending on geographical
conditions, and on progress in the field of observation techniques and
methods;
(v) Theoretically, standards of reliability could be established but the technical
means of carrying this out will vary between différent nations.
(vi) The main difficulties in the field of reliability standardization are expected
in the field of observation methods and techniques. Main efforts should be
directed towards a graduai standardization of comparison methods, of observation instruments, création of international standards on the basis of developments in différent countries and conditions of their comparisons with national
standards.
The text of the first three chapters has been distributed to the participants. I
apologize for the absence of a bibliography and annexes to the third chapter which I was
unable to prépare in time for the présent symposium.
It is hoped that there will be constructive proposais from the symposium which will
help me to improve the final report of P.33. We also hope that Interested participants to
this symposium will hâve had the opportunity to familiarize themselves with the contents of
the first three chapters.
Allow me, once again, to express hope that the discussions at the présent symposium
will be fruitful not only to the author of this work.
Editor's Note:
Dr. Filippov's final report has been published by W.M.O. as World
Weather Watch Planning Report No. 26, "Quality Control Procédures for
Meteorological Data."
39
MANUAL EVALUATION OF AUTOGRAPHIC RECORDS FOR COMPUTER PROCESSING
by
Uri Mané
Israël Meteorological Service
Bet Dagan, Israël
The évaluation of charts of automatic recorders is still performed manually in the
Israël Meteorological Service and there is no certainty that the transfer to semi-automatic
or automatic évaluation will be economically feasible in the near future. It should be
borne in mind that readings obtained from autographic recorders are generally less accurate
than those read directly from standard (non-recording) instruments. Practically, it is
necessary to note on the charts the différences against the standard instruments and take
into account thèse différences when evaluating the charts. Since even with pre-calibrated
recorders the différences are not constant and may change with changes in the respective
élément (as e.g., R.H.) and since other déviations may be caused by the inexact march of
the clock, etc., fréquent control readings are necessary. The considération of thèse two
kinds of déviations, i.e., in time and in élément makes even the automatic or semi-automatic
évaluation cumbersome and perhaps more difficult than the manual évaluation. On the other
hand the need for more detailed data, in addition to those obtained from actual observations
(the handling of which has been described before (1), (2)), becomes more and more pronounced
and we are confronted with the problem how to deal with the vast amount of data stored on
charts of recording instruments. Let us mention hère only briefly some three or four requests from customers where evaluated charts1 data are involved:
1)
The most important need for évaluation of charts in our country, where rainfall is the
most variable élément, is that of the rainfall-recorders. The évaluation of thèse
charts is requested for the solution of various questions in hydrologie engineering as
rainfall probabilities, flash-flood prédiction in dry-river beds, as in sewer construction and in réservoir planning. Many problems cannot be solved by the analysis of
daily rainfall amounts, but need the détermination of rainfall rates and of excessive
falls of précipitation, which occur in shorter intervais of time. Thèse excessive
falls may also cause heavy damages to the soil structure, to crops and dwellings and
are therefore of immense interest for agricultural engineers.
2)
The next important élément for agriculture after rainfall may be assumed to be température. A rather simple example in this field is the évaluation of frost hazard to
tender fruits and vegetables. Freezing damage to the fruit, blossom or plant will not
occur at températures above a certain level (the critical minimum température). Nevertheless, expérience and experiment hâve shown that freezing damage is a function of
both the actual minimum température and the duration of températures below the critical
freezing limit. The évaluation of thermograph charts is necessary to establish the
requested corrélation. On the other hand, deciduous trees require in winter a certain
amount of "dormancy units", i.e., duration of température below a certain limit for a
certain number of hours; also in this case the évaluation of charts only can give the
right answer.
3)
Another field where température data are required is the control of température in
buildings (heating 6e cooling) .
The method for Computing fuel consumption is still based generally on the mean daily
température only, not considering the daily range. This may be sufficiently accurate
for large buildings, but it is not likely to be true for small detached houses, such
40
as villas, cottages, etc. For the latter, correct figures could be obtained only by
studying a long séries of hourly values of température.
In the same manner the load on heating and cooling plants might be determined more
effectively by the evaulation of thermograph charts.
4)
The évaluation of anemograph charts (records of wind speed and wind direction) is
probably more laborious than that of other self-recording charts, but nevertheless
necessary because of the many applications of the evaluated data. Wind, through its
pressure effect, can be used as a source of natural power. For effective and économie
opération there must be a steady wind above a certain threshold, which in practice is
about 15-20 miles/hour for over 40% of the time. Average values of windspeed for the
day or at certain hours do not suffice to give the right appraisal of the possibilities
for the exploitation of energy from the wind, but only hourly values evaluated from
anemograph charts . The pressure of the wind upon high buildings or towers is another
very important considération, for the building should be designed to withstand the
highest wind speeds likely to occur during the life time of the building. This problem
involves also the right interprétation of anemograph charts. Next to rainfall, wind
speed and direction are the éléments requested most frequently in légal cases (mostly
by insurance companies, surveyors and assessors, but also quite often in court cases)
in order to support claims for damage, etc. Hère often the question arises whether
data of peak gusts or those of wind speed averaged over a certain period of time are
more relevant.
Evaluation of the charts and the punching of the data has taken into account ail thèse
aspects as will be seen later. There are, of course, many other examples which demonstrate
the necessity to obtain more detailed data from autographic charts as in the field of médical
meteorology, aeronautical meteorology, research in gênerai, etc.
In order to simplify the évaluation and processing of such data, the Climatological
Department has designed forms and punched cards for this purpose. Two forms are in use at
présent. The first form serves for the compilation of evaluated data of ail éléments except
those of wind. The form enables one to write down on one sheet, the 24 hourly values of a
certain élément, day-by-day, (one row for each date) for a whole month. At each day, the
time covered coincides with the calendar day, i.e., from 01 hours to 24 hours;* the information from this form is punched on 2 separate punched cards for each date. The first 15
columns of the puncheards are reserved for gênerai ** information, as card type, station
number, year, month and date; thèse data are noted in the upper right corner of the form.
The actual evaluated data are punched in columns 16-51 on the first card and in
columns 16-68 of the second card. The first field of the form is headed "01", i.e., in this
field the value read at 01 hours (or the accumulated value from 00 hours to 01 hours) is
entered and punched in col. 16-18. Similarly the second field is headed "02", the figure
entered into it for the value, evaluated for 02 hours, Is punched in columns 19-21 and so on.
The last field of the left part of the form is headed "12"; the figure entered into it is
the value evaluated for 12 hours and is punched in columns 49-51 of the first punched card.
Similarly the values for the hours 13 to 24 are entered into the appropriate fields on the
right side of the form and punched in the columns 16-18, 19-21, . . . . , 49-51. The columns
52-55 and the appropriate field on the form are reserved for the total of 24 hours which is
transferred to summary cards. The columns 56-58 are left empty for ail éléments except rainfall. In columns 59-61 and the appropriate field on the form the maximum value of the 24
hourly values is recorded, the hour of this maximum in columns 62-63; similarly columns 6466 and 67-68 (and their appropriate fields) are used for recording the minimum value and its
hour of occurrence. From the summary cards it is possible to compute the mean value for
each clock hour and also the mean monthly value of the 24-hourly mean. When this form is
*
for ail éléments, except rainfall.
** The first columns specify in a single code the élément, the units, the time scale used
(calendar day or rainfall day), the hour used (Greenwich, Zonal Standard Time, True Solar
Time) and whether the data hâve been corrected or not.
41
used for régistering hourly values of rainfall, "the rainfall day" - beginning at 08 hours
zonal standard time of the respective date and ending at 08 hours of the following date - is
taken into account for registering rhe 24 hourly values. Consequently the first field on
the left side of the form is headed "08-09"; in this field rainfall from 08 hours to 09
hours is entered and punched in columns 16-18 of the first punch card, rainfall from 09-10
hours is entered in the next field and punched in columns 19-21 of the first punch card and
so on. The last field on the left side of the form is headed 19-20 and punched in columns
49-51 of the first punched card. Rainfall during the hours 20-21, 21-22
07-08 of the
consécutive day are entered in the first field on the right part of the form and punched in
columns 16-18, 19-21, .... 49-51 of the second punch card. The rainfall total for 24 hours
is punched in columns 52-55. Columns 56-58 and the appropriate field are used for registering the number of clock hours at which rainfall was recorded at the respective data;
columns 59-61 and 62-63 for recording the maximum clock hour rain and the hour of its
occurrence.
From the chart (of Mt. Kena'an, 8-9/2/1965) of a "Dines pressure tube anemometer" the
complex character of wind structure can be seen. It is obvious that this type of chart
offers the possibility to analyze this structure in détail. In récent years there has been
an increasing need for detailed information regarding wind data, especially in connection
with the problems mentioned above. On the other hand it is nearly impossible to extract ail
the possible détails and compile them on forms suitable for punching therefrom. Therefore,
we hâve chosen the 6 mostly needed parameters which should be noted on the anemograph chart
and compiled into the appropriate form for the purpose of punching. The parameters are:
1)
Speed of the highest gust (for every clock hour)
2)
Direction of the highest gust (for every clock hour)
3)
Maximum speed for every clock hour (highest mean speed for 10 minutes)
4)
Direction of the wind at the time of the maximum speed (for every clock hour)
5)
Mean speed of the wind (for every clock hour)
6)
Mean direction of the wind (for every clock hour).
If, by some device, the fluctuations of the wind could be entirely damped out, the
record of mean speed and mean direction would be represented by a thin line showing the
variations of what is called the "mean wind", and would make it easier for the observer to
note thèse values for his synoptic report and record in the notebook, where thèse 2 parameters only are required. The task of the observer who uses the anemograph for obtaining the
values is, therefore, to estimate them from the fluctuating record of the anemograph. The
6 values are entered by the observer or at the Central Office on the chart itself for every
clock hour, as can be seen from the example. It is obvious that the form previously described and used for other éléments is not suitable in this case and also the punch card
design had to be changed.
Each form contains the hourly (clock hour) values for 5 dates, so that in one month 6
or 7 forms are needed. For each date, 6 lines are provided, numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. In
each line the 6 parameters for 4 clock hours are entered and punched on separate punch cards
for each row as follows:
Speed (Knots) 0 f the highest gust for clock hours:
Row No. 1 contains:
heading (1): cols.
"
"
"
15-17
28-30
41-43
54-56
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
42
Direction of the highest gust (tens of degrees)
for the clock hours:
heading (2): cols
18-19
31-32
44-45
57-58
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
Maximum Wind Speed for the Clock Hours:
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
heading (3): cols. 20-21
M
33-34
M
46-47
II
59-60
Direction of the Wind at the time of the
maximum speed for the clock hours:
heading (4): cols
22-23
35-36
48-49
61-62
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
Mean speed of the Wind for the clock hours:
heading (5): cols, 24-25
37-38
50-51
63-64
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
Mean direction of the Wind for the clock hours:
heading (6): cols
26-27
39-40
52-53
65-66
00-01
01-02
02-03
03-04
The last 6 fields in the row (columns 67-69, 70-71, 72-83, 74-75, 76-77, 78-79) are reserved
for noting the maximum values during the 4 clock hours (00-04) of parameters 1, 3 and 5 and
the directions (tens of degrees) corresponding to them. Lines 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are filled
out in the same manner for the clock hours 04-08, 08-12, 12-16, 16-20, and 20-24. The
information contained in the respective columns for wind speed of each clock hour is transferred to summary cards from which the mean monthly wind speed for each clock hour and the
mean monthly wind speed for 24 hours may be computed. From the punched information on mean
hourly wind direction and wind speed the mean monthly vector wind for each clock hour and
for 24 hours (mean monthly) may be determined (by the electronic computer).
The two forms described hère are based upon the évaluation of clock hour values only.
It is obvious that for many investigat ions, more detailed information is required. E.g.,
the duration of gales according to the record of the anemograph, has to be determined mostly
to a greater degree of accuracy than c lock hours; rainfall intensity probabilities for
periods smaller than 1 hour are reques ted by hydrological engineers (sewer construction) and
very often the maximum rainfall intens ities for the duration of 1, 2 .... hours is needed
and not that of 1, 2 .... clock hours. A spécial form based upon rainfall évaluation for
each 1/4 hour is attached. On the oth er hand the clock hour évaluation enables one to
détermine the true daily mean of ail e lements that are continuously recorded or observed at
each hour
e = ( e. + e_
i
2
e
24
24 >
43
e. = value of the élément at the hour i.
1
I did not touch the question whether the automatic or semiautomatic évaluation and
punching of charts1 data would be under ail circumstances more economical than that of the
manual évaluation and punching. There would hâve to be taken into considération several
points, for instance
a)
Whether the automatic évaluation and punching is done at each meteorological
station individually by an automatic digitizer which transfers the data on punch
cards or punched tape or magnetic tape.
b)
Whether the évaluation is done automatically by some device as the "Pencil Follower"
at the Central Office.
c)
The cost of man-power, which varies from country to country and the cost of
purchasing and maintenance of the automatic evaluating instruments.
At the Weizmann Institute, at Rehcvot, Israël an instrument called the D-Mac pencil
follower can be used for the analysis of meteorological, hydrological and other charts. The
trace of the recording is followed by hand by an operator and the values punched automatically on punched cards. We thought that it might be useful to try out this instrument, but
a first experiment showed that we should hâve to invest twice the time and money as for
manual évaluation.
REFERENCES
1.
The collection of Rainfall Data; their Control, Processing and Publication by
Means of Conventional Data Processing Machines.
Uri Mane. Israël Meteorological Service. January 1967.
2.
The Collection of Climatological Data and their Control.
tion by Means of Conventional Data Processing Machines.
Uri Mane and S. Walther. Israël Meteorological Service.
Processing and Publica1967.
44
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46
LECTRICE SEMI-AUTOMATIQUE POUR DEPOUILLEMENT DES
DIAGRAMMES CLIMATOLOGIQUES CONVENTIONNELS
par
F. Bultot et G. L. Dupriez
Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique
Bruxelles
Les données climatologiques traitées par la Section d'Hydrologie de l'i.R.M. proviennent
de stations équipées essentiellement d'appareils enregistreurs (thermohygrographes et psychrographes pour la température et l'humidité de l'air, thermographes pour les températures du
sol et de l'eau, pluviographes pour l'intensité et la repartition temporelle des précipitations). Ceux-ci offrent l'avantage de fournir un nombre suffisant de valeurs tant nocturnes
que diurnes pour suivre les variations des éléments observes et établir des moyennes précises.
D'autre part, l'utilisation des seuls instruments à lecture directe ne présente pas toute la
garantie souhaitée quant a l'exactitude de l'heure d'observation et ne permet pas de détecter
à coup sûr les erreurs grossières. Avec l'emploi d'appareils enregistreurs, il est possible
aussi d'alléger la tâche des observateurs (tous bénévoles), la présence de ceux-ci a la
station n'étant exigée qu'une seule fois par jour.
Les enregistreurs en service sont du type traditionnel; ils inscrivent sur un support
en papier une ou plusieurs courbes représentant les variations de l'élément considère.
Comme dans beaucoup d'autres pays, des considérations d'ordre financier et technique empêchent de convertir actuellement tout le reseau avec un équipement plus perfectionne enregistrant directement sur des supports acceptables par les machines mécanographiques (bandes
perforées ou magnétiques).
La lectrice semi-automatique mise au point par la Section d'Hydrologie avec l'aide
d'une firme locale permet un dépouillement rapide de ces enregistrements sur papier, avec
transcription directe des résultats sur bande perforée.1 Le suiveur de courbes entièrement
automatique n'a pas ete retenu du fait que le trace des enregistrements n'est pas toujours
parfait (taches, interruptions) ou présente des incompatibilities (trace par points, courbes
sécantes, échelles curvilignes, portions verticales sur les enregistrements du pluviographe
a siphon).
Le méthode utilisée consiste a repérer manuellement les ordonnées d'un nombre fixe de
points de la courbe dont les abcisses sont des portions equidistantes du temps. A cet effet,
on positionne un réticule horizontal sur l'ordonnée du point vise; un voltmètre numérique a
polarité automatique mesure cette ordonnée par l'intermédiaire d'un potentiomètre multitours
couple au dispositif d'avancement du réticule. Quant aux abcisses, elles sont déterminées
automatiquement. Il suffit de fixer une fois pour toutes l'abcisse de départ (00.O0Z par
exemple) et l'accroissement d'abcisse (60 min par exemple). Apres perforation des coordonnées du point vise', l'abcisse est augmentée de cette grandeur et associée a l'ordonnée
du point suivant.
TABLE DE LECTURE
Elle accepte tous les diagrammes utilises habituellement par les instruments climatologiques. Deux dérouleurs latéraux rendent possible la lecture des rouleaux d'enregistrements. Les feuilles, souvent pliees lors de l'expédition, sont maintenues en place et
rendues planes par un système d'aspiration. Deux guides, dont l'un est mobile, permettent
un placement rapide et précis du diagramme. C'est au-dessus d'eux que glisse le réticule
constitue d'un mince fil d'acier tendu. La légère inclinaison du pupitre permet d'éviter
plus aisément l'erreur de parallaxe.
1
Cet appareil a ete realise grâce au concours financier du Commissariat Royal au Problème de
1'Eau.
LECTRICE SEMI-AUTOMATIQUE POUR DIAGRAMMES CLIMATOLOGIQUES
47
NOMBRE DE COURBES
Les enregistrements multicourbes sont dépouilles plus rapidement en relevant l'ordonnée
de chacune des courbes à une heure déterminée. A cette fin, un combinateur numérique du type
Contraves actionne un circuit de présélection du nombre de courbes. Son rôle est de bloquer
l'accroissement incrémental des abcisses durant le nombre de cycles nécessaires a l'exploration des diverses courbes. Un tube NIxie indique à tout moment le numéro de la courbe sur
laquelle la mesure doit être effectuée.
CHOIX DES ECHELLES D'ORDONNÉES
Le traitement des re'sultats par des calculatrices simples est facilite lorsque les
données, sont exprimées dans les unités courantes (°C, °L d'humidité, mm d'eau, etc...).
Dans ce cas aussi, l'operateur qui effectue le dépouillement peut avoir l'attention attirée
par des valeurs aberrantes.
Afin de couvrir la diversité des diagrammes a traiter, différents réglages d'échelle
sont prévus. Le zéro du voltmètre numérique peut être mis en correspondance avec un point
quelconque de la table de lecture. La sensibilité et le fond d'échelle sont également
réglables dans une large gamme a l'aide de dispositifs potentiometriques. Les valeurs
mesurées au voltmètre apparaissent sur un compteur a 3 décades avec indication de la polarité.
Un témoin lumineux renseigne en outre les dépassements d'échelle qui sont tolères dans une
certaine mesure.
Lorsque les ordonnées ne varient pas linéairement (comme pour certains hygrographes a
cheveux par exemple), un dispositif de linéarisation a 10 plots permet d'ajuster les indications du potentiomètre multitours a l'échelle choisie.
Il va de soi que lorsqu'on dispose d'un ordinateur pour le traitement des résultats, on
peut exploiter la plus grande sensibilité du voltmètre numérique et effectuer en machine les
transformations d'e'chelles.
CHOIX DES E'CHELLES D'ABCISSES
Comme il a ete explique précédemment, les abcisses sont déterminées automatiquement a
partir d'une valeur a l'origine et d'un accroissement, ces grandeurs étant entrées a l'aide
de combinateurs Contraves. Toutefois, le dispositif d'avancement incrémental automatique
peut être débranche; toutes les abcisses sont alors entrées manuellement. Cette dernière
méthode est expediente, notamment pour la recherche des extrêmes journaliers et de l'heure
ou ils se produisent.
Pour les travaux de Climatologie, les abcisses sont la plupart du temps exprimées en
heures et minutes; cependant, pour d'autres types de travaux, le compteur horaire peut être
converti en compteur décimal.
DE'BUT D'ENREGISTREMENT
Une touche placée a la partie inférieure de la table de lecture permet de perforer en
début d'enregistrement huit constantes numériques préalablement affichées sur des combinateurs et servant a identifier le diagramme (type de données, numéro de station, mois, jour).
MESURE
Le réticule étant place sur l'ordonnée du point vise, il suffit d'enfoncer une pédale
pour perforer a la fois le signe de polarité, l'ordonnée (3 chiffres) et l'abcisse (4 chiffres) . Il faut toutefois noter que le signe de polarité a ete remplace par un code numérique
a 4 valeurs permettant de tenir compte d'éventuels dépassements d'échelle.
48
LECTRICE SEMI-AUTOMATIQUE POUR DIAGRAMMES CLIMATOLOGIQUES
FIN D'ENREGISTREMENT
La touche "fin d'enregistrement" a de multiples fonctions. Non seulement elle perfore
un caractère spécial indiquant la fin de l'enregistrement, mais elle provoque en même temps
l'impression de l'incrément horaire utilise et d'un mot de contrôle représentant l'état de
certaines fonctions de la machine. Ces renseignements sont précèdes d'un autre caractère
spécial permettant de les détecter aisément lors du traitement de la bande perforée.
Une touche "erreur" est également prévue. En l'enfonçant, l'operateur met fin à
l'enregistrement; le mot de contrôle prend une valeur particulière rendant possible l'élimination ultérieure des enregistrements fautifs.
Pour les cas ou les résultants doivent ,être, transfères sur cartes avant traitement
mécanographique, une fonction spéciale a ete prévue. Elle met fin automatiquement à l'enregistrement des que les 80 caractères d'une carte sont perforés et imprime les 8 constantes
numériques au début du nouvel enregistrement.
CONTRÔLES
Une erreur courante lors du dépouillement mécanographique est l'oubli ou la répétition
d'une lecture. Pour avertir l'operateur d'une telle fausse manoeuvre, on a prévu un circuit
qui, au moment de la fin de l'enregistrement, compare la dernière abcisse à l'heure prévue
de la dernière mesure. En cas de discordance, une alarme visuelle et auditive est déclenchée
et le mot de contrôle perfore prend une valeur déterminée indiquant que l'enregistrement est
a rejeter.
En outre, les circuits d'impression sont bloques en cas de mauvaise manipulation.
Ainsi, la fonction "de'but d'enregistrement" est sans effet tant que la bande perforée n'a
pas ete amorcée ou qu'on n'a pas mis fin à l'enregistrement précèdent. De même, il est
impossible de perforer la mesure d'une ordonnée et 1'abcisse correspondante si la touche
"début" n'a pas au préalable ete enfoncée. Enfin, toute nouvelle mesure est arrêtée tant
que le cycle de perforation précèdent n'est pas termine.
Les résultats des six premiers mois d'utilisation ont fait l'objet de tests sévères.
Il est apparu que la précision, la sensibilité et la reproductibilite de la lectrice étaient
excellentes; dans la plupart des cas, la précision est même supérieure a celle de l'instrument enregistreur.
Le placement des diagrammes sur la table de lecture et le réglage de l'échelle des
ordonnées ne présentent guère de difficultés et sont presque toujours effectues correctement. Néanmoins, une méthode de vérification a ete mise au point afin de détecter d eventuelles erreurs. A cet effet, toutes les courbes sont dépouillées deux fois a des moments
différents. Lors du premier passage, on lit uniquement les valeurs horaires; au second
passage, on recherche les extrêmes journaliers et l'heure ou ils se produisent. Un test a
l'ordinateur décèle aisément les journées ou il y a desaccord entre les deux séries de valeurs .
Par ailleurs, un dépouillement soigne a mis en évidence certaines imperfections des
instruments enregistreurs, notamment des décalages dans l'impression des échelles et un
placement parfois imparfait des diagrammes sur le tambour d'enregistrement. Pour y remédier
les appareils sont dotes d'une plume fixe inscrivant une ligne qui sert de repère d'échelle
lors du dépouillement.
On dispose ainsi d'un instrument rapide et sûr facilitant considérablement le dépouillement des diagrammes. Suivant le genre de travail demande, l'operateur peut traiter journellement de 100 a 200 documents. Il ne doit plus ni lire, ni interpoler, ni corriger mentalement,
ni transcrire les données. En outre, tous les résultats sont présentes sous une forme
directement acceptable par les machines mécanographiques et ne doivent plus subir aucun
traitement manuel.
49
STATISTICAL METHODS FOR AUTOMATIC CHECK
OF METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
(ABSTRACT)
by
L. S. Gandin
Hydroraeteorological Service
Moscow, USSR
Along with the usual small valued errors in meteorological observational data, there
often occur errors whose cause can be determined. Such errors can reach large values and,
hence, cause wrong results in weather forecasts as well as in climatological généralisations.
It is necessary, therefore, to make an attempt to eliminate and as far as possible to correct
the erroneous data.
The basic causes of rough error are faults in recording Systems, errors of readings
and preliminary data processing, distortions during the transmission and réception of information through communication channels, and, in the case of generalised characteristics,
errors occurring in the course of computation.
The information used by climatologists involves both direct observational data applied
also for operational purposes and the results of climatological processing of thèse data that
includes averaging over one or another ensemble. It is convenient to deal with the check of
information of thèse two kinds, i.e. détection of rough errors in them, separately.
Checking of information is always based on statistical considérations as one can only
establish unlikelihood of the data but not that there are undoubted errors in them. The exception is the présence of strictly excessive information, i.e. such data that are in exact
functional relation with other observational data.
At présent most of the meteorological information check is made manually. In the main,
only automated checking is done on data used in numerical forecasting. Investigations hâve
been carried out on the improvement of methods for this check as well as on the development
of numerical automated methods for checking of ail kinds of information.
The simplest method of checking is based on the analysis of likelihood of a single
measurement. It involves comparison of the measured déviation of a value from the norm with
the root-mean-square déviation. The same method can be applied to analysing the likelihood
of single results of averaging. In spite of the fact that only rough errors can be found by
this method it is of practical use.
Certain possibilities for checking also lie in the unlikelihood of some combinations of
meteorological éléments at the same point (précipitation with the absence of cloudiness, fog
with low humidity, etc.) This can relate to the combinations of averaged values (e.g. monthly
means of cloudiness and radiation) as well.
It is impossible to detect small valued errors with the aid of the above methods. Besides, the use of thèse methods does not give the possibility for one-valued correction of
erroneous data. There appear much greater possibilities to uncover and correct errors if
one considers the distribution of meteorological éléments in space or in time but not their
individual values.
50
AUTOMATIC CHECK BY STATISTICAL METHODS
The idea of such checking lies in the fact that together with the observed value it is
possible to obtain the value interpolated by data in other points or at other moments. Comparison of the interpolated value with that observed allows us to calculate the degree of
likelihood of the latter. If the observed value is wrong it can be replaced by the interpolated one.
The most accurate on the average results are obtained if the interpolation is made by
the method known as optimum interpolation. This method uses information on the statistical
structure in the form of autocorrélation matrices and takes into account the occurrence of
random observational errors. In some cases simpler methods of interpolation can be used
without préjudice to the accuracy of interpolation. Whatever the interpolation method, the
data on statistical structure can be used for a priori estimation of the root-mean-square
error of interpolation. Comparing this error with the différence between the interpolated
value and that observed, one can judge with greater certainty the degree of the observed
value likelihood.
The investigations hâve shown that the described method is very effective when applied
to the check of vertical profiles of meteorological éléments. In this case, since the
observation levels are fixed, the interpolation coefficients can be calculated once and forever. The data hâve been given on the six-level scheme of checking of such kind for the
heights of standard isobaric surfaces.
The horizontal check is based on similar principles, which is used nowadays in routine
practice of the Hydrometeorological Centre of the USSR. In this case the interpolation
coefficients should be calculated each time anew, as the data of some stations may be absent.
The rejection criterion is accepted to be proportional to the root-mean-square différence
between the results of interpolation and the observational data, the différence being calculated in parallel with determining the interpolation coefficients. Thèse calculations are
easy to make due to the fact that the horizontal corrélation is assumed to be homogeneous and
isotropic. Some détails hâve been reported concerning the use of the above method of checking and its corabination with other methods.
The scope of application of the above-mentioned methods is much wider than checking
of the initial data for numerical forecasting. In practice thèse methods can be used for
any meteorological éléments. However, their efficiency for différent éléments is différent
and dépends on the magnitude of space corrélation. There hâve been given quantitative
estimâtes of the possibilities of the methods when applied to various meteorological éléments
The same checking methods can also be used for the values averaged by time. In particular there has been developed horizontal checking of monthly means of a number of meteorological éléments near the earth's surface. In this case it turned out to be sufficient to
use a simple linear interpolation instead of optimum one. As experiments hâve shown, with
the help of horizontal checking it is possible to find erroneous data of some meteorological
éléments to the extent that is required at présent when checking monthly means by subjective
methods. At the same time it has become clear that for some values, e.g. monthly means of
précipitation, thèse requirements seem to be too high.
When passing from "instantaneous" values to averaged ones the effect of individual
rough errors decreases. Therefore, such errors should be detected by analysing actual
observations but not averaged ones. At the same time small systematic errors caused, for
example, by instrument scale shift (constant corrections are not introduced or wrong ones
are introduced) can be found only when analysing fields averaged by time. In the same way
one can bring out breaks in the representativeness of stations. In this respect the checks
of not averaged values and of those averaged supplément each other.
The check by means of interpolation by time is evidently possible only under postoperational conditions. As the experiments on such checks for monthly means of some meteorological éléments hâve shown, comparatively small errors can also be found with the help of
this method. In this case interpolation should be made for the déviations from norms in
order to exclude the influence of periodic changes (daily and annual variations) .
AUTOMATIC CHECK BY STATISTICAL METHODS
51
Substantial possibilities for checking lie in analysing the agreement of the fields of
différent meteorological éléments between each other. The main kinds of such checking are
the hydrostatic check based on comparing the vertical profiles of height of isobaric surfaces
and température and the geostrophic check of upper winds based on the analysis of horizontal
distributions of height and wind.
If the information on height and température were absolutely accurate and the température in the layers between the main isobaric surfaces changed linearly then this information
would contain exactly excessive information and the hydrostatic check would be purely functional. Since the above conditions are fulfilled only approximately the criteria of information likelihood in the light of the hydrostatic check had to be obtained by statistical
method.
The hydrostatic check enables about 80?o of rough errors to be detected in the values
of height and température and approximately 90% of the revealed errors to be corrected in a
one-valued manner.
The geostrophic check of wind is based on comparing the observed upper wind with the
geostrophic wind computed by the height field. In connection with the high variability of
wind in space and time the geostrophic check is the most effective way to check upper winds.
For this check a method has been developed to détermine geostrophic wind (differential, but
not a finite-difference one) directly by the height data at stations taking into account
their accuracy. This method is a généralisation of the method of optimum interpolation.
Both the hydrostatic and the geostrophic checks can be applied not only to current
data but also to values averaged by time. Since in upper-air soundings errors such as zéro
constant shift are absent, such application of thèse methods of check is reasonable only
for détection of errors made in the process of averaging data.
In conclusion some considérations hâve been set forth as regards the further development and introduction of objective methods for meteorological information checking.
52
THE FUTURE OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA ANALYSIS
by
C L . Godske
University of Bergen
Geophysical Institute
Bergen, Norway
A great part of the meteorological data today available has been collected, from international and national synoptic networks, for purposes of weather prédiction. Additional
observations hâve been obtained from climatic stations of différent types (many of them only
reporting précipitation) and in connection with spécial investigations, say studies in local
meteorology by means of temporary networks. The data represent our main source for scientific
meteorological studies and - belonging to the past - can never be retrieved nor supplemented
by future observations. Today, with the world-wide coopération within the science of meteorology, the utilization of thèse "historical" data is one of the most important problems. We
must not underestimate the difficulties encountered when planning their international storing
and utilization. Let us try to consider briefly some of the aspects and questions thus
arising.
The first question is the following: How great a part of the total amount of observations today available ought to be centrally stored in such a way that it is easily accessible
by modem methods for scientists ail over the world?
Before that question can be answered we must first consider another: townat purposes
do we intend to use the data? As an introduction let us consider fig. 1, introducing the
scale problem in meteorology. We hâve obtained a simple diagram by neglecting the vertical
scale and assuming the same scale in the two horizontal directions; the abscissa represents
the time scale, the ordinate the two space scales. The space scale goes from the molecularmicroscopic (mm), to the planetary-macroscopic (10 000 km); the time scale extends from
fractions of the second to the geological millions of years. Ail scale combinations are of
interest to our science. It would be catastrophical to identify small time-space scale with
small scale of importance. The most small-scale turbulence phenomena are important even from
the large-scale point of view - say in connection with energy transformations between the
atmosphère and the surface of the earth.
It would now be unrealistic to put in modem data archives ail data obtained. A sélection is necessary, the principles of which, of course, may be open to discussion. Let me
give some examples. Starting with large-scale problems we first meet with the problems of
the gênerai circulation, attacked again and again by improved models. Observations taken in
a world-wide network from good 3-dimensional stations for a fairly long number of years
(10-20), preferably from both hémisphères, would hère be needed. Grid-point values, determined by some kind of interpolation from the original observations may seem préférable for
practical reasons - but cannot be recommended as the only solution, since the principles and
methods of interpolation may be improved in the years to corne. Moreover, the reliability of
the grid-point values may vary according to the density of stations near the grid point.
Another type of problem is connected with the synoptic scale in time and space, viz.,
the studies of weather forecasts - of short, ordinary, or long range. Improvements may be
expected by detailed analyses and prognoses without the time stress acting on the daily
forecaster, and by experiments using différent models. It might be of considérable interest
to make easily available in future ail data connected with certain selected weather situations and présent thèse "test situations" as challenges to synoptical and theoretical meteorologists. I would recommend that the data also include ail kinds of information about small-
53
S
10 000 km
CLIMATE
MACRO
100km
fMESO
l(LOCAL)
10km
; «-MICRO
sec min
hour day
m.
year 30 years
FIGURE 1
scale phenomena. It is reasonable to assume today that the large scale problem of numerical
weather prognoses may be solved in an adéquate way in a not too far future. But the practical
forecasts often refer to locally influenced régions - valleys with great local effects,
cities with typical modification of the large-scale weather. We want prédictions not only of
the "représentative large-scale weather", but also of the "irrepresentative weather" characterizing localities where people live.
In well-developed régions it may be sufficient with only a small sélection of available
stations; but over the seas and sparsely populated régions one must perhaps use ail data
existing, even those whose quality is not first class.
A problem of large-scale type in time is that of climatic fluctuations, based on
stations with very long records of data (preferably 100 years or more) which can be considered as homogeneous. A sélection of such stations ought to be included in the international
data archives, and also most of the "historical" data from the start of the science of
meteorology; although they may be widely scattered in time and space and of doubtful accuracy
they represent our only direct information about the climate of older days.
The long séries are also of paramount importance for the problems connected with the
statistical distributions in meteorology, to be considered in some détail later. For thèse
studies we need the original observations, whereas studies of climatic fluctuations to some
extent can be based on summarized data, such as monthly means.
Both from statistical and dynamical points of view the notion of models is important;
they must be based on, and checked by, real data. Models referring originally to a spécial
locality (meteorology of an air field, turbulence over a sea, a désert, a grass-covered and
snow covered plane, lee waves connected with orography, etc.) may later be extended to other
54
régions and may even - after reasonable changes being made in the characteristic parameters become of universal utility. In particular one should be aware of the possibility of applying such models to non-developed régions, say for purposes of agriculture, town-planning,
dispersion of air pollution, etc. It would be highly désirable If the international data
centers also contained data enabling scientists to build up such models. Great discrétion,
however, must then be applied, so that one would not be tempted to generalize unduly the
results (a model developed in a continental climate may, or may not, be satisfactory when
used in an oceanic région).
Let us conclude with the following principle: An international data center ought to
be built up after careful considération of the important scientific meteorological problems
to be expected in the future. A spécial emphasis ought to be put on undeveloped régions and
countries. In well developed countries one ought to build up also national centers, containing more data than the international from the country in question. Finally, although the
center might belong to a climatological institution, it should be considered to be created
not for climatologists alone, nor for synopticians alone - but for ail types of meteorologists,
pure and applied.
The efficiency of a library dépends on the number of books and on their accessability.
Analogously, the possibility of acquiring data cheaply and easily for scientists ail over the
world is of the greatest importance in connection with the data centers. In what form are
the data to be stored and exchanged? Not many years ago punch-cards were the natural method.
Today perhaps microfilms would be the best médium for storing large data, and magnetic tapes
perhaps the best method of exchange. It seems to be a vain hope to arrive at a standardized
code for ail stored data, similar to those used internationally in synoptic meteorology.
However, a just demand to the national, régional and international data centers must be that
they can deliver their goods in such a way that the data can be immediately used by the
consumers. The international data centers thus ought to posses programs which could give to
the consumer the data in every well specified form (arranged chronologically, each month
separately, or synoptically for individual days, etc.) Such programs should be worked out
as soon as possible and be available to the consumer desiring data. Perhaps WMO should take
the responsibility of arranging and continually revising a program catalogue?
We now arrive at the highly important problem of the quality of meteorological data.
Probably the scientist does not exist who has been saved sorrows and troubles when working
with large amounts of data collected by other investigators or by observers with moderate
scientific background. After troublesome computations one may arrive at nonsense results,
the nature of which may be very difficult to reveal - until one becomes suspicious of the
data, guaranteed to be "complète and good". One might in hopeless pessimism be tempted to
prefer no data at ail (which do not tempt us to go ahead) to erroneous ones with unforseen
lacunae. The central data institutions consequently, before storing of observations on films
or magnetic tape takes place, ought to subject ail data to careful checkings and corrections
(and of course give detailed information about the corrections). Three principles of
checking can be applied. The data must be "logical in time", so that no improbable change
In an élément takes place between successive hours of observation. Consequently, time
différences ought to be computed and those cases listed when the différences are suspiciously
great. If the errors cannot be corrected by inspection of the original diaries, etc., one
may keep the data (and dénote it as suspicious) or décide for some method of interpolation,
(denoting that the élément has been interpolated).
Let us next consider the two other principles of checking. The data must also be
"logical in space". Différences between two neighbor stations ought consequently to be computed and situations having suspiciously high différences be subjected to detailed inspection.
Finally, the data must be "logical In éléments", certain combinations of values being highly
improbable (say, in Western Norway, a strong southerly wind and a noon April température
well below freezing point ought to be rejected).
The checking and correction of such data as are considered to be worth including in an
international data archive présents perhaps the most dull and tedious task in our science,
55
but one of the most important. It ought to be performed at central data archives. I hâve
followed, with great interest, the discussions on the data quality, and with the paper of
Dr. Fillipov in mind, I feel convinced that this problem is taken well care of today - under
the leadership of WMO.
Let us briefly consider what will be the effect of non-discovered errors. Small errors
can be said to increase the noise level of our data - so that longer séries will be necessary
to bring out the "messages", say, the parameters of the underlying statistical distributions.
Grave errors (say +38°C instead of -38°C in winter at an Arctic station) may falsify time
and space connections so strongly that the results become meaningless; the scientist will
either resign or himself undertake the not too inspiring job of renewed checking and
correcting. If we really want scientists applying modem statistical methods to work on our
data in good humor and with inspiration, we hâve to make the data - not perfect, that will
never be possible - but free from grave errors leading to meaningless results.
I am glad to know that international rules will be introduced, by WMO, for checking of
ail new data to fonn the main part of the world-embracing data archives. Where stations are
far apart and measurements irregular such checkings would be difficult and even impossible.
The data even when suspicious should then be submitted to the data archive if they represented
a particularly undeveloped région and/or time. In fact, one has not only to consider the
level of reliability of an observation but also its level of importance. If it carries much
independent information it may be worth to conserve - even when suspicious - as are the case
with many data from "good old times". If possible, ail archive data should be available
gratis - or for the costs of the transmitting médium (tape, cord) - for ail seriously working
meteorologists, whose budget may be very small compared with that of a center. The value of
a data archive is not measured by the size but by its use and applicability.
The use of our data archives is intimately linked with the future of the science of
meteorology. To give a gênerai answer to the question "how to use the data" would be impossible within this short lecture. I therefore will put a more subjective question: How
would I, personally, utilize an international data archive if I were the leader of a big
institute with plenty of money, plenty of data machines, and plenty of collaborators? The
answer may aptly be characterized as the "childish dream of an old professor with a minior micro-institute.
The first thing to do would be to make a gênerai sélection of problems according to
reasonable guiding principles. I am well aware of the fact that studies in weather prédiction
preferably by mathematical models, represent the most spectacular and glorious field of
research in our science. But I am also aware of the fact that only partial successes hâve
been achieved, and that we even are unable to judge the successes. In an idéal science the
successes should be compared with the perfect 1007» correct prédiction. In meteorology we
know that perfect prédictions are impossible. Let us assume that our model shall give a
prédiction on the-s-ynoptic scale. No dynamical and statistical model can isolate this scale.
In particular, we may expect influences from the smaller scale (generally called turbulence)
to become of increasing importance as time proceeds (see some of the arrows in fig. 1) and
finally to make our prédiction worthless. Thus, we must always reckon with a certain
"ceiling" for the prédiction, 95 percent, 90 percent, 85 percent? Is there anybody today
who would dare to state the exact level of this ceiling and give advices how it could be
lifted for short-range and long-range prognoses? I think a careful analysis of the actual
predictability of the diverse weather éléments would be needed. Consequently, a statistical
procédure naturally présents itself.
From the statistical point of view the prognostic problem is a very spécial one,
leading to formulae of the type:
Y(t) =F(Y(t-i), X.(t-i)), 1-1, 2 — n , j-1, 2--m-l
56
with m predictors and n "past times".
Y(t ) = F ( X . ( t J ) ,
o
j i i
A generalization would be:
t. | t
^ o
, some X. = Y for i ^ 0
j
>
Such a formula gives description of or information about Y(t ) - the descriptand or informand
by means of a number of descriptors or informators. The information problem thus embraces
the prédiction problem. I would now, sélect the statistical study of the information problem
as my main use of the data center - with applications to prédiction, representativeness,
description, etc.
Table 1.
Order of synthesis.
Climatological synthèses of différent orders.
Notation.
Methods of représentation.
0
f(e , s , t )
o
o
o
Distribution of an isolated variable.
1
f(e , s , t)
N
o
o
f(e , s, t )
Time-series for isolated variables.
1
Synoptic charts for isolated variables.
1
f(e, s , t )
v
o
o
"Station models" on weather maps.
2
f(e , s, t)
Séries of synoptic charts for isolated
variables.
2
f(e, s , t)
"Climograms" etc.
2
f(e, s, t )
"Composite synoptic charts"
3
f(e, s, t)
Séries of composite synoptic charts, etc.
For developing methods for solution of some topics within this vast problem we should
need a guiding principle. I hâve found this in Table 1. The starting point is the modem
statistical définition of climate, generalizing the loose classical définition as the "average
weather" (in caricature: 30 numbers afterwards divide by 30). I will define climate as the
science of the multidimensional distributions of atmospheric variables -- quantitative as
well as qualitative, marginal as well as conditional. The variables may be of the same
character (say, température at différent times and/or localities) or of différent type (say,
température and wind). We may specify p "différent" variables, m différent localities, and
n différent times, so that our distribution can be characterized schematically by a multidimensional density function
f(X ijk ) = f(e., s j 3 t k ) ; i = 1,2- p; j = 1, 2-- m; k = l,2--n
Hère e, s and t stand for élément, space, and time respectively. The estimation of f must be
based on empirical data. This fact at once introduces rather narrow limits for the problems
which can be taken up in practice. Let us assume that we consider 2 variables at 3 différent
times and 3 différent localities, so that the dimension of our problem is 18. Assuming the
simplest case of multinormal distributions we hâve to estimate
18*17 _ n o paramio + io + —r
— îoy
eters (averages and covariance matrix). Let us further assume that we must pay attention to
the seasonal variation of the parameters and utilize data only from a single month. 30 years
would then give a sample of size 900 for the estimation; since successive dates are used the
57
sample will probably hâve much less than 900 degress of freedom, perhaps only 2-300. Consequently, we may well obtain a System of parameters which characterize the sample, but with
very little value as the underlying assumed universe or population is concerned. Even the
notion of "population of meteorological data" leads to formidable difficulties -- our
science containing a curious mixture of determinism and interminism. However, it would need
a long and difficult Chapter in a book and not some few remarks in a talk to penetrate this
problem.
As a conséquence of the limited size of the samples, our knowledge of climatological
distributions is strictly limited, so that it would be natural to introduce a systematic
procédure, based on what I hâve called the climatological synthèses.
The synthesis of order zéro consists of the study of the distribution of isolated
selected variables at given time and locality. Strictly speaking only a single realization
of such a distribution is available, and hypothèses must be introduced about the population
defining the distribution if we want information about its parameters. A first approximation
is to neglect the mostly small climatic fluctuations, considering -- as an example -- ail
températures measured the 15th of April at 13 as defining a population. Observations from
a séries of n years then can be interpreted as a sample of size n, and even as a random
sample when climatic changes are ignored. For very few stations we hâve available data from
100 years or more, and even such data would constitute a fairly small sample. Using for the
100 years ail days of April, perhaps with élimination of a monthly trend, we would obtain a
sample of size 3000. However, this sample is not random, owing to the persistence tendency
known to exist between températures 24 hours apart. Consequently, the accuracy of ail
estimâtes (of mean, variance, etc.) would correspond to a much smaller sample size, say 500.
Many errors hâve been committed by neglecting the différence between random and successive
samples.
Operating as indicated above we may arrive at statistical models of atmospheric
variables and also obtain some idea about the attained accuracy. Some gênerai comments about
the procédure may be useful (they are, of course, valid also for synthèses of higher order).
The first step I will characterize as inspection for inspiration. The choice of a
model type ought never to be made from a priori principles, but must be based on a detailed
scrutiny of the data available. The allowed complexity of the model dépends on the amount
of data available. Thus, with few data it is not only practical but also recommendable, for
a quantitative variable, to try a normal distribution. Inspection of a large amount of data,
however, may reveal so great skewness that a more gênerai model must be attempted, say a
Pearson model. For température this will be necessary, since skewnesses are known to exist
in winter (and night) with long tails to the left and skewness of opposite sign in summer
(and day), as is shown even by 15 years of data from Bergen and the adjacent light house
station Hellestfy. Neglect of this skewness might lead to serious errors, say in the estimation of night frost risks.
I should like to give some few words of warning against "domination by computers".
There is a tendency to overestimate the work which the computers can do, owing to their
speed and memory capacity, and underestimate what the scientist can do owing to his intelligence. Hardware and software must be guided by brainware. Scrutiny of the data, or at least
part of them, ought to be performed before trying out models by using big computers.
Scrutiny of intermediate results, say in form of diagrams, may be equally useful. "Bigger
and better machines" ought to be dominated by "bigger and better brains". (For synoptic
meteorology one might perhaps note the formulae BBB > WWW).
When the model type has been chosen, with due regard to nature and to the statistical
models already known, the next problem will be the estimation of population parameters -easy only in few cases, such as in the multinormal distribution. An optimist may perhaps
then stop, but for a critical mind also tests of goodness of fit are needed. Some of thèse
are based on the sample used for estimation, also called the development sample; thèse within - sample tests may be of gênerai type, such as the chi-square test, or more spécial (say,
58
using the skewness parameter to test normality). However, a sound scepticism among meteorologists hâve introduced between-sample tests; the derived formulae are applied to new
data, defining a test sample. Similar considérations hâve induced me to introduce the
principle of sub-periods. As an example let us assume our data to consist of 30 years.
Taking every third year, we compute estimâtes for the 3 sub-periods thus defined and compare
the results. If there is a gênerai agreement between the sub-periods as to a certain resuit
we feel much more confident than with a resuit found only for the total 30-year period. However, the sub-period principle must be used with considérable caution, since the data from
a sub-period gives less sensitivity than the total amount of data.
As a final resuit of the diverse test procédures we may either disprove our model and
be forced to make a new choice, or we may not disprove it with the data available and acknowledge it as provisionally acceptable. However, we must be well aware of the possibility
that the model may be disproved later as the data increase and give us more powerful tests.
Our models must be under continuai revision.
A systematic world-wide coopération would be necessary if one desired a gênerai
solution of the zéro order synthèses for various climatic éléments in différent seasons and
localities, say for answering the following question: is it possible for température to
hâve a universal type of a distribution function, so that ail variations in time and space
only appear as variations of the parameters?
For such studies, good stations with long séries are necessary; an important question
is then: how long? I hâve started with data from my own city, Bergen on the west coast of
Norway. It seems possible to obtain 100 years of quasi-homogeneous data. For 25 years, the
température has been observed and punched every hour. Thèse years hâve been subjected to a
provisional investigation, among others containing a biharmonic analysis of monthly average
and standard déviation. The results hâve been confirmed by analogous studies of 30 years of
data from Oslo and 10 years of data from Oslo Airport, Fornebu. Some investigations about
the distribution function for température hâve also been carried through, but will be
supplemented by use of the other 75 years available.
Three synthèses of order unity are indicated in our table, the time-synthesis, the
space-synthesis, and the element-synthesis. Although the mathematics in the 3 cases may
présent great similarities the synthèses are quite différent from the meteorological point
of view and need separate considération.
The time-synthesis is obtained when we consider a single élément and locality and study
variations in time. A simple example is obtained when studying the seasonal and daily
variation of the parameters obtained in a zero-order synthesis. More complex problems, however, arise when we consider the persistence tendencies of the variables. The statistical
models are, for qualitative variables, stochastic processes, for quantitative variables,
time séries. Although considérable work has been devoted to such concepts, we are still
far from a complète understanding of the models to be used in meteorology, especially if
we also want to study non-stationary processes connected with daily variation. Moreover,
the methods of estimation are often complex and hâve to be solved by approximation methods.
As a simple example let us consider the température, whose distribution is not too
abnormal so that it is tempting to introduce time séries for description and apply classical
methods of estimation.
If the time step is one day we may within a restricted time, say a month, apply the
model of stationary time séries. An ordinary correlogram indicates how successful the
simplest of ail prédictions, viz. the autoprediction will be. Using one predictor, say T ,
we predict T , i.e. the température m days later by a régression formula
T = b T + a
m
m o
m
59
As m increases, b tends to zéro and a to T . Thus, for many days ahead the best autom
m
m
prédiction is the climatological prédiction. The other limit is prédiction by persistence,
putting T = T . Let us consider the average errors thus committed. Denoting by s the
putting T = T . Let us ce
° m
o
standard déviation we hâve
error variance by persistence: 2s (1-r)
"
"
by régression:
"
by climatology:
2
2
s (1-r )
1.5s
0.5s
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
*-r
FIGURE 2
Thus, as long as r > 0.5 persistence is better than climatology; for very great r
there is no appréciable différence between persistence and régression. Fig. 2 represents
thèse quantifies for différent r-values. In a time séries r decreases with the time lag.
Bergen data give approximately r = 0.7 for one day and r = 0.5 for two days prédiction (see
points A- and A „ ) . Assuming useful only such formulae which reduce the variance with at
least 4 0 % (see dashed horizontal line) we conclude that a one day autoprediction in this case
is useful, a two-day autoprediction not so -- even if it is established as a significant
resuit according to the rules of statistics. A corrélation of 0.8 for one day and 0.65 for
two days (see points B, and B„) would give useful prédictions also 2 days ahead.
Let me allow myself a small digression. In ail applied statistical sciences one has to
distinguish between significance and usefulness of the results. The significance, say, of a
corrélation coefficient indicates a real connection (direct or indirect) between two phenomena.
60
A great coefficient may well be insignificant (if the sample is large enough). However, the
usefulness of the relation dépends on the absolute value of the corrélation coefficient. In
"pure statistical meteorology" we are interested in significant results, in "applied statistical meteorology" our main thème are the useful results. But it will.be prématuré at 'once
to be unduly impressed by a large, apparently useful corrélation. Before we apply the term
useful to the relation we must be assured that it is significant. Serious errors hâve been
made in the history of meteorology by neglecting this précaution, thus in connection with
solar-atmospheric relationships. The first step must always be to dérive significant results.
A careful inspection will show which of them can be considered useful and recommendable for
routine application. Let me give only a single example. If a 3-month prédiction of a meteorological variable could be shown, in a statistically convincing way, to hâve a multiple
corrélation coefficient of 0.4, this would constitute a wonderful scientific resuit. But
the percentual residual variance would still be 84; only extremely optimistic meteorologists
would dare to make practical use of such an established scientific fact.
Let us go back to Fig. 2 and assume point A 1 to represent a one-day autoprediction.
Would a point situated, say, at A , be représentative for a 12 hour prédiction?
The answer
might be yes if the quantity under considération presented no diurnal variation. But with
température the answer is certainly "no". The decrease of the time lag does not always
increase the autocorrélation, it might well be possible that the point on our curve corresponding to half a day's prédiction might be A' .
I hâve spent considérable work and machine time with the température correlograms having
a time step of one hour. Computations hâve been carried out for every month and hour, for
3 stations, Bergen, Oslo, Fornebu, and for sub-periods as well as total periods. The lags
chosen hâve been !'!•••
72 hours. More than 3000 correlograms hâve been drawn and their
variation with predicted hour, season, and space discussed.
Let us consider, as a simple example, for Oslo, April the backward correlogram for T 7
as predictand, presented on Fig. 3. The sub-periods give clear information of a double
periodicity, with two minima of information, near sunrise and about 14" - 15 , and two
maxima. The extrêmes appear for ail predictand hours and ail months from February to
November, the position of the morning minimum showing a typical seasonal variation with the
sun. The explanation must be that the température variation partly is produced by irregular
"night noise" and "day noise" which make the température at certain hours worse as autopredictors than others, let us, as an example, consider a 24 hour prédiction of T 7 . The
residual error is about 50%.
However, if T
were to be predicted by the température 18
hours earlier the error would be 657» - greater even than a prédiction 48 hours ahead.
Applied to prédiction one should, therefore, avoid as predictors the noise -- influenced
night and afternoon températures.
It is not easy to find a model adaptable to thèse data. In 1962 I tried "chains of
stationary time séries", which seem quite promising. Perhaps a better model would be to
présent T as a sum of différent terms, each of which has a certain meteorological interprétation. One term could represent the large-scale influences, which in the simplest case may
be represented by a Markovian séries (with exponentially decreasing r ) , another term might
be due to cloudiness which hâve opposite influences on maximum and minimum températures.
The provisional results seem very promising.
As the second first order synthesis we consider the space synthesis obtained by
studying, at a given time, the relation between one and the same variable at différent
localities. The simplest problems are those characterized by drawing maps, say, isotherms
for the day température in April. Where a small-scale orography exists - such as in Western
Norway with its fjords and valleys -- the practical solution of this problem may be difficult;
careful considération must be given to the scale chosen. Of more statistical interest are
the space corrélations, the problem of representativeness in space corresponding in a way to
that of auto-prediction in time. The representativeness problem is very important also from
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
4B
54
60
61
66
72
0.40
lil
J-i-v
01
!
19
r ! '11.-! fi ÏU! 11!
13
07
01
19
FIGURE 3
13
07
01
19
13
07
62
the practical point of view. What is the désirable permanent network of stations? It must
be so dense that there is a reasonable but not too great corrélation between observations
made at neighbour stations. If this corrélation, by a temporary network, is found to be,
say, 0.95 for a certain variable, we can in future compute the variable for one station
using the other as descriptor, with an error of only 10%, a good enough resuit for many
practical purposes. The practical studies in local meteorology based on stations erected
for 3-5 years dépend essentially on representativeness properties. It might be tempting to
introduce the notion of statistical distance and recommend networks with a given "statistical
density", e.g., the corrélation between observations from neighbour stations ought to be
greater than, say, 0.80 -- and stations with r > 0.95 referred to its neighbour might be
considered as superfluous.
Problems of this type must be solved, and generalized, if we in the future shall plan
our networks. It is extremely important to reveal lacunae in our network, which ought to be
filled out. But, economy taken into considération, it is also useful to find out where
redundancy exists. How much of the data give.a negligible "additional information" to other
data. Thèse problems ought to be attacked in a systematic way. Of course, the statistical
distance between two stations would dépend on the élément considered, so that some discrétion
must be used when applying it. The guiding principle must always be: for what problems are
our data collected and stored? "Data for data's sake" represents a highly primitive way of
thinking to be avoided in ail planning work. Time has now corne to reveal the "real" redundancy, i.e., that which is not even needed for checking purposes.
I hâve been interested in problems of representativeness for more than 20 years. Many
examination thèses hâve treated Norweginan data. I would, therefore, put considérable
emphasis on the space synthesis if I were able to work systematically also with international
meteorological data.
The third first order synthesis is the élément synthesis, arrived at by using ail data
obtained at the same time at a single station. Studies of température in différent conditions
of cloudiness belong to this category, as does also régression formulae expressing one élément,
the regressand, by one or more regressors. If the regressand is difficult to observe, say
a complex radiation quantity, and the regressors are found by routine observations, say
cloudiness and visibility, the results may be of considérable practical interest. From the
point of view of data the élément synthesis is simpler than the space synthesis, since the
former can be based on observations from a single old station -- whereas the latter needs a
network of stations.
Also one of the second order synthèses, viz. the time-element synthesis, can be carried
through by data from a single station. A spécial problem is that of local predictability of
a variable, generalizing that of autopredictability considered in the time synthesis. How
much improvement can be obtained, say, in predicting next day's température in Bergen by
use, not only of Bergen autocorrelograms for température, but also of other Bergen data?
And how much improvements can ultimately be obtained by passing to the gênerai statistical
prédiction problem using différent éléments at différent past times and différent localities?
We end up with the important problem already mentioned; How high is the ceiling of predicability? And what is the geographical variation of this height taking into considération the
geographical variation in the density of stations and in the orography?
I will not consider the other climatological synthesis, but instead spend some few
words on the methods which I, as well as other investigators, hâve to apply. The methods
are based on a systematic application of statistical principles and on modem electronic
computers. The great difficulty today is not connected with the computers, but with the
statistical methods in meteorology. I sorely feel the need of a modem textbook - but
realize how difficult it would be to write one. According to my opinion such a textbook
must be written parallel to the working out of typical "pilot studies", based on stations
with long séries of data, and on selected networks of large and small scale, preferably
surrounding thèse stations. A main problem would be to find models of gênerai applicability
and to improve and generalize current methods. Probably a great number of problems of
63
estimation and testing would hâve to be solved by machine samples using simulation processes.
The mathematical skeleton, and also ail programs, ought to be restricted to a minimum in the
textbook -- but detailed références to statistical books and papers (understandable to a
normal meteorologist) ought to be included. It would be no simple job to write such a book --- but I think it would be extremely useful. The bottle-neck today in the science of data
utilization is our lack of statistical knowledge and systematic procédure. It is not enough
to collect ail knowledge possessed by mathematical statisticians fond of clear problems and
idealized models. One has also to increase this knowledge -- even by use of methods making
the pure statisticians wrinkle their noses. What is best: exact solution of a problem
which is a highly simplified picture of nature -- or a rough solution of a more life-like
problem?
I hâve perhaps unduly stressed the use of meteorological data in pure research -- and
even with my own spécial interests in view. The communities, however, would need more for
their money than scientific results, even when they may become useful in, say, 10 years.
They want results of practical importance already next year. We must, therefore, to some
extent, be guided by practical considérations when selecting our problems and constructing
our models. Their utility may refer to three différent fields: production, transportation,
and destruction. Climatology as an aid to_ greater production is the most obvious program
in developing countries. Air, sea, and land transportation, uniting developing and developed
countries into one world, need the help both of synopticians and of climatologists. Finally,
for the developed countries problems of destruction become of increasing importance, destruction not of human beings but of différent kinds of refuse, of gases producing smog, problems
connected with civilization maladies which threaten to make the "high standard of living"
insupportable. Such destruction problems certainly need meteorologists working on the meso,
or even micro-scale.
Time presses, and I feel almost ashamed of having given so many loose words and so few
results (although I could produce interesting illustrations to some of my principles if time
had allowed). However, "at the beginning was the word". But out science progresses, we
must proceed from Hamlets "words, words, words" to clear and correct data, to Sound and -if possible -- common principles and methods, to an open and friendly exchange of data and
ideas, and to a rational division of work. The future of our science is only partly dépendant
on the almost overwhelming organization of World Weather Watch (WWW). Even more important
is the quality and quantity of future meteorologists (BBB) who collect, organize and -- last
but not least -- utilize the meteorological data. I hâve some years ago compared weather
forecasting to todays music, most of it "pop" -- of extrême interest today, but soon forgotten
just like the snow of last year. But comparable to classical music, to masters like Bach and
Mozart, growing more and more important as time progresses, is our beloved science of climatology. However, we are ail aware of the fact that composers of today, Aaron Copland,
Benjamin Britten, Dmitri Shostakovitch already now belong to classical music. I feel, therefore, certain that a similar thing will happen in our science: synopticians will gain
stature and become climatologists. I want to add to thèse quasi-poctio a more prosaic
statement: The future of the meteorological science and its practical application dépends
ultimately on the future of meteorological data analysis. And the responsibility is ours.
64
AUTOMATIC DATA HANDLING AND
PROCESSING FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
by
Harold L. Crutcher
Asheville, North Carolina
1.
INTRODUCTION
Why do we wish to observe, to record, and to use climatological data? Expérience has
shown mankind that there is useful information in climatological data. This information can
be used for guidance for planning in the improvement of the environment, in the increase in
the products of agriculture, and in the use of the products of the sea for food. The knowledge of characteristics and behavior of the atmosphère can be used as aids in aviation. It
is the job of the synoptic meteorologist to provide to the public, at selected hours, information on the présent state of the atmosphère and to forecast the future state of the atmosphère. It is the job of the climatologist to extract from the data gathered from the networks
of weather stations guidance material for both the synoptic meteorologist and the climatologist.
What are the needs of the climatologist or the meteorologist? Do we really know what
we need or want? Can we specify to our engineers what we want to measure? Can we obtain
some idea as to what we need? We then hâve to specify what we need. Too often we hâve
instruments not designed for our use. We must specify the sensors needed, the maintenance
of Systems, the recording, the transmission, and the receipt of raw and processed data. In
ail this, many difficulties occur.
2.
ENTROPY AND INFORMATION THEORY
The task of the climatologist is to extract meaningful information from ail the output
data of the sensors, the observations, and the communication channels leading into the
archives. It is pertinent, therefore, to discuss briefly the concepts of entropy and information theory. Entropy and information theory do play a vital rôle in the assessment of the
potential of climatological data.
The second law of thermodynamics may be interpreted to mean that any System tends
toward a state of equilibrium. In other words, there is a tendency for ail Systems to
approach a state of maximum probability. Entropy is a measure of the extent to which a
System is random. It is a measure of disorder in a System. It is a measure of energy.
Entropy increases when a System passes into a more random or a less ordered state. Conversely, it decreases when the system passes into a less random or more ordered state.
This leads to the third law of thermodynamics which can be interpreted by a statement that
the entropy of a crystal at a température of absolute zéro is zéro.
There is need to hâve some measure, intuitive or otherwise, of the order of information
in the meteorological system under study. Consider a channel which may be used to communicate
from an input signal to an output signal. In gênerai, some alphabet is assumed. For perfect
information and communication a letter of the alphabet at the input would hâve a one-to-one
correspondence to the letter of the output. It would not be necessary that there be a oneto-one correspondence between éléments of the sets. An alphabet letter at the output is
AUTOMATIC DATA HANDLING AND PROCESSING FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PURPOSES
65
associated with one and only one alphabetic letter at the input. If this occurs with each
transmission, there is perfect communication. As there is complète order in this case, the
entropy of the communication channel is considered to be zéro.
If there is some noise or disorder in the channel, then the entropy of the System
would be something greater than zéro. There would be some point at which the disorder in
the System would be a maximum. The System would be completely random and the usable or
available information, other than the mean state and dispersion, would be nil. Shannon (14)
wrote the first paper on communication utilizing the concept of information theory. This
paper is now a classic. Shannon also employed the concept of entropy, though he and others
after him called this equivocation rather than entropy. A measure which apparently satisfies
the need of this concept is now given for a single élément.
c
H = -S
i=l
p. In p.
*
(1)
i
where p. is the probability of the System being in some one state, i, of a number of states.
The idea hère is that entropy is equal to or greater than zéro. The négative sign assures
the positiveness of the quantity H, which is called equivocation or entropy. If there is
only one state, the entropy is zéro. That is, the system is fixed and there is no chance to
pass outside the System. For example, if the state of ambient températures for the earth's
surface is considered to be -200°C to +200°C, then the entropy of this one state system is
zéro insofar as our expérience would indicate. This excludes, for the purposes of this
discussion, the effects of the exhaust température of volcanoes or lava flows. The system
is essentially in a fixed crystalline state. There is no additional information to be
obtained from any observation either prior to or post to the time of observation. Total
information is available. There is no need to observe, to study, and to predict. However,
this is not sufficient for our needs and we must attempt to obtain information through whatever methods are available to us.
As the number of observations in a sample increases, the empirical probability, or the
relative frequency, approaches the theoretical probability. Then the likelihood estimate of
the entropy, Masuyama (10), can be written as:
H =
-J (fi/n) In (fi/n)
(2)
Hère, f^ is the observed frequency in the state "i" and n is the total number of observations.
In the above example of températures the f^ = n and c = 1 and the entropy is zéro. When
f^ is zéro, the terra is defined to be zéro. If ail the probabilities are equal in each and
every state of two or more states, then we find the other bound, which is the maximum entropy,
the maximum disorder, or the lack of any applicable information to permit forecasting into
one of the states. This maximum entropy is equal to the logarithm of the number of states.
Thus, in a two-state matrix a measure of the maximum disorder or the maximum entropy would
be the logarithm of two. In order to compare the entropies from one type of matrix to another,
or in a séquence, the entropies may be normalized by dividing each entropy by its respective
possible maximum entropy. This concept, introduced by Shannon (op. cit.) and by others, seems
to be satisfied intuitively by the entropy concept defined above.
Karl Pearson (13) devised the well-known and familiar Chi-square test to check the
heterogeneity or goodness of fit of quantified data with respect to some theory specifying
expected frequencies. Generally, the null hypothesis that there is no différence is tested.
In a corollary development to the maximum likelihood criterion, Fisher (7) proposed the log
likelihood ratio criterion. Neyman and Pearson (12) developed this still further and showed
that -2 log \was distributed as X with appropriate degrees of freedom whereX is the likelihood criterion. Herdan (9) draws close attention to the relationship of %*• to H, the entropy.
An information statistic, I, may be defined as:
66
The quantities -2 logarithm
and 21 are each distributed asymptotically as X with the
appropriate number of degrees of freedom as developed by Fisher (op. cit.). The information statistic, I, provides a measure of the transmission capability of a communication
channel. The channel may hâve a certain noise level, yet the relationship, or history, or
memory which exists in the channel will control the amount of usable information which is
received as an output. The above discussion provides some idea of the boundaries within
which information can be passed through a channel.
Dr. Godske has given us a wonderful exposition of the generalities, philosophy and
requirements of the climatologist. Dr. Filippov has given us an extensive and very worthwhile paper on phases of quality control of data. Other speakers hâve contributed a great
deal to the total picture of the problems confronting the climatologists. You hâve visited
the National Weather Records Center. You hâve seen the computers and you hâve seen work in
progress in the collection of, archivai of, processing of, and dissémination of climatological information. There are innumerable interfaces or steps involved in the observing
and transmission of data to the National Weather Records Center. Each interface represents
an output-input System where the output of one sub-channel becomes the input to the next
sub-channel. At each interface noise may enter. Essentially, it is quality control which
is used to minimize the noise entering at each interface and also internally within each
channel. Figures l(a-d) présent schematic examples of various phases in data processing
and storage.
3.
EXAMPLES OF INFORMATION EXTRACTION AND AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING
Above, some idea of the concepts of entropy and of the information statistics, or the
capacity, of the communication channels has been presented. Hère now is an example, illustrated in Figure 2, of entropy, H, and the information statistic, I. It concerns the maximum wind speed at Cape Kennedy, Florida, at the 10 to 15 km. level above the surface of the
earth. It is based on observations made every 12 hours. Thèse data are archived at the
National Weather Records Center. Ail missing data hâve been replaced by data interpolation
from synoptic charts or time cross sections. The study then is based on serially complète
data. The range of the maximum winds is less than 120 mps but greater than zéro mps.
In the upper portion of Figure 2 the normalized entropy of the System is shown through
the year by month from January to January. Note the low entropy during the summer months.
At this time of the year persistence will be the best prédiction. Some degree of range may
be indicated either by a Monte Carlo process or by superposition of the prior distribution.
Note the higher entropy during the winter months. This indicates greater disorder and greater
variability than in the summer. In the case of the 5 mps class interval vector, the entropy
is higher than the 20 mps class interval vector. This is expected as the lower the number
of states, the closer the entropy approaches zéro or the entropy of one state. Conversely,
as the class intervais become smaller, the normalized entropy increases towards a maximum
of one. If the normalized entropy is one, there is complète disorder and a prédiction could
be made only in the random sensé.
In Figure 2 it is seen that in July, the period of maximum information, that the
probability is small that a prédiction will be better than persistence. It may also be
seen that during the winter there is information to be obtained which may be used to provide a prédiction better than persistence. Such improvement may be sought in the exploitation of the Markov processes or in the use of either linear or non-linear régression
techniques.
Fig. l a . Primitive Schematic of the O b s e r v a t i o n a l P r o g r a m
N e e d of
Organization
S p é c i f i c a t i o n of
H
H
O
I
Observer
mm a . A A a t u r i t y
!•"
b.
Education
mm c.
Aptitudes
I
Q
H i r i n g of
Observer
T r a i n i n g of
Observer
mm a . T e c h n i q u e s o f
O
O
m
w
observing
mm b. R é d u c t i o n o f o b s e r v a t i o n to w r i t t e n
I
I
form
mm c. C o d e s
L K d. Communication
modes
C o m m u n i c a t i o n of O b s e r v a t i o n t h r o u g h C o m m u n i c a t i v e
•
a.
•
b. T y p e s c r i p t
•i
c. T e l e t y p e w r i t e r
i
Channel
Manuscript
8
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1
Normalized entropy of Cape Kennedy, F l o r i d a ,
10-15 km maximum wind transition m a t r i c e s .
Period of record 1956-1963.
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MONTHS
Transition Matrix Entropy and Information of the lag 1 or
12 hours post maximum wind speeds given initial maximum
wind s p e e d s , Cape Kennedy, F l o r i d a , 10-15 km maximum
winds, 1956-1963.
12
Fig. 2.
71
72
In other words, there is a slight chance for improvement in summertime prédiction
beyond persistence, but there is a good chance to improve prédiction in wintertime beyond
persistence. The return on investment in developing prédiction techniques will be greater
for the winter than for the summer.
It has been mentioned by previous speakers during this meeting that we should develop
automatic sensing and reading Systems which could feed directly to a computer. The possible
use of magnetic ink to write a trace which could be read by an automatic digitizer has been
discussed. The concept is certainly désirable and eventually we may develop equipment which
will allow us to proceed in this way. At the présent time there are many problems with the
sensing and recording equipment which necessitate that the digitizing be done on a qualitative basis by knowledgeable personnel in order to obtain reliable data. Thèse problems can
be electronic, mechanical, or resuit from inadéquate maintenance. Figures 3 and 4 are two
examples of thèse problems. They are taken from wind recordings at a multi-level tower.
Figure 3 is a trace for the 18-meter level. This tower is instrumented on opposite sides in
an attempt to eliminate the tower shadow effect. When the tower side switches, there is a
sharp jump of 20° in the direction trace. The problem hère is that the orientation of one
or both of the direction sensors is in error as a resuit of inadéquate maintenance. The 30meter level wind recording is shown in Figure 4. When the timing trace changes, a jump in
the wind speed trace occurs. This is apparently an electronic problem; probably a poor
ground. There are many other problems which may arise such as clock stoppages, pens running
out of ink, paper skewing, etc.
Thèse are just two démonstrations of the many difficulties that occur, and will occur,
in the automatic observing and recording of data that is forwarded to some central point
for processing. In some cases, the cause of the malfunction may never be known. The electronic Computing machines will not detect thèse unless adéquate machine programs can be made.
Even then, strange and new problems will occur later. In the case of automatic raob difficulties, there is nothing to look at and ail we hâve to go by is what the automatic raob
observation computer indicates. There is nothing to help correct the data in case of an
obviously bad observation. Just what the probability is that the real message would be
obtained is unknown.
In the semi-automatic program there will be difficulties also. We hâve the AMOS program (Automatic Observing System). There is so much noise that from the climatologist point
of view the records cannot be processed efficiently. The synoptic meteorologist who has a
great amount of data and redundancy often can make sensé out of the AMOS data.
There is an intermediate AMOS program where the station transmits the data into some
central location. The data are held one month and then transmitted to the National Weather
Records Center. Quality control has to be done after the fact, as is the case so much of
the time.
Anytime an observation is made, manual or automatic, and passed back into the communication channel, the number of errors that occur is difficult to asses. This channel is discussed briefly now. Speaking in very broad generalities, in some channels we can extract
data, look at them, and make a quality control on processing at any of thèse stages down to
the publication of the raw or processed data. Correction may be required before the processing can be continued. But even then there are difficulties in the processing of data. Changes
of code may be created by operational problems and requirements. For example, changes in the
units of speeds are made -- some are in miles per hour, some are in knots, and some in meters
per second. When data are processed and a common product obtained, each date and datum must
be checked and respective codes also hâve to be checked. This increases the cost of data
processing. If possible, periods of data are processed where the codes are the same so that
the problem of changing codes will not be encountered.
Figures 5 through 12 are illustrations of the types of results obtained through automatic data processing. Figure 5, taken from Crutcher and Charles (5), shows the wind components during the Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall seasons at Long Beach, California. The areas
TOWER SIDE SWITCH INDICATOR.
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20° J U M P -
PORTION O F AUTOGRAPHIC WIND DIRECTION
TRACE AT 18m ILLUSTRA TING A SHARP 20°
J U M P WHEN THE TOWER SIDE CHANGES.
Fig. 3.
73
74
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PORTION O F AUTOGRAPHIC WIND S P E E D TRACE AT 30m
ILLUSTRATING JUMPS IN THE WIND S P E E D WHEN THE
TIMING TRACE CHANGES.
F i g . 4.
75
0.50
30mb
50mb
lOOmb
Seasons
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Power Spectrum Analysis of Upper Air Zonal Winds at Long Beach, Calif.
Period of record I 9 5 I - I 9 5 6 . ( F r o m an unpublished manuscript of
Crutcher and Charles - 1 9 6 0 . ) The ordinates are in relative v a r i once while the abscissae periods are given in numbers of days.
Fig. 5.
76
under thèse curves hâve ail been standardized. The altitude increases from the 850- to 500to 30-mb levels. Close to the surface of the earth some scales of 2, 3, 4 and 5 days are
important but not as important as the 10- and 20-day periods. The shift in the scale as
the altitude increases occurs as follows. At 100 mb 7-day periods or more are the most
important. At 30 mb 10-day periods or more are important. Not as many observations at this
level in the stratosphère are needed because of the tendency of circulation Systems to persist. The longer periods (lower frequencies) become important as the altitude increases
from 850- to 700- to 500-mb and upwards.
The application of the technique of spectrum analysis to geomagnetic characteristic
(Magnetic Index) data is demonstrated in Figure 6. The most important period in the Magnetic Index C-^ is very close to the well-known 11-year sunspot cycle. Especially interesting
is the very pronounced six months period.
Figure 7 is taken from Crutcher, Bintasant and Kropp (4) and shows the bivariate normal
distribution of winds for Bangkok, Thailand, for July at 850 mb during the Southwest monsoon.
This assumption of normality is a valid assumption for the upper air, Brooks and Carruthers
(2) and Crutcher (3). Twenty-five percent, 50 percent and 75 percent of the time the winds
corne respectively from the smallest through the largest ellipse.
Figure 8 shows a wind rose for Norfolk, Virginia, for May for 10,000 meters. This is
one of the standard type wind roses produced at the NWRC. Speed catégories and direction
catégories form the basic structure for this wind rose. In addition, bivariate normal
statistics are provided at the base of the form. Thèse statistics are valid only in the
speed and direction distribution indicates a single mode or peak.
Figure 9 shows a bivariate distribution of hurricanes that hâve passed through the
indicated square towards Florida, Central America, Cuba,Santa Domingo, Puerto Rico, and
other places, Haggard, Crutcher and Whiting (8). Ail hurricanes that passed through this
square were studied. There is a 0.40 probability that the hurricane will be within the
small ellipses 36 hours, 72 hours and 108 hours, respectively, after détection in the
square. Similarly, there is a 0.95 probability that 36 hours, 72 hours or 108 hours later
the hurricane will be located within the larger ellipses.
Figure 10 shows a schematic of a three-dimensional isotropic distribution.
Figure 11 is an illustration adapted from Arakawa (1). This represents the envelope
of winds over Tokyo from the surface to 25,000 meters. This is a measure of the scatter or
dispersion of the wind. There should be some mathematical function that might be used to
describe a wind profile and which could be used for prédiction. One such procédure is to
use orthogonal polynomials, Crutcher and Durham (5).
Figure 12 présents a wind prédiction problem for Cape Kennedy, Florida. Régression
techniques were used to dérive the orthogonal polynomials which describe the profiles. The
orthogonal polynomial coefficients then were used to predict new coefficients. Thèse new
coefficients then were used to construct synthetic profiles. Hère Figure 12 shows predicted
and actual wind speeds by means of the curve and dots, respectively.
There are many problems for which we do not
of the 6 x 6 probability matrices for the maximum
the now conditions by the Markov process, a small
unfilled. This problem is further complicated if
hâve sufficient data. For example, in use
wind prédiction of later conditions from
sample of 8 years of data leaves many cells
we use a 10 x 10 or 20 x 20 matrix.
.12
IV 1
.11
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11.0 Y E A R S
SPECTRUM ANALYSIS OF THE
CÏ E O M A G N E T I C CHARAC"rERISTIC
r ' U A k T U I V \ / A I I I C C 1 Q Q À 1 O A >)
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FREQUENCY (CYCLES/26.4 MONTHS)
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Thaï Rose
F i g . 7.
E l l i p t i c a l Wind Rose for J u l y , 850mb L e v e l
for Bangkok, Thailand
FIGURE 8.
WIND ROSE FOR NORFOLK WITH ACCOMPANÏING BIVARIATE NORMAL STATISTICS.
NORFOLK. VIRGINIA
10.000
RAWIN
MAY
HO.
STATION HAMC
DR SEASOft
T i r C OF OBSERVATION
1/56-10/63 12Z
\SPEED
K/«
KNOTS
DIR.
\ M.r.H
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5-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26-30
31-38
39-51
52-77
78-102
>
103
l.t
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-74
75-99
100-149
150-199
>
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1 10
11-22
23-33
34-45
46-56
57-68
69-85
86-114
115-172
173-229
>
230
N
2
P
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1
1
2
N E
%
ODS.
6
4
1
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1
1
E N E
SPEED (KNOTS)
TOTAL ALL OBS.
2
1
1
SUM
ME/1
ri
2Pfl
190
85
21
18.0
47.5
42.5
21.0
11
1Q1
2Q71
2575
1509
728
11.0
61.7
17.0
57.1
57.1
51.4
50.4
53.6
48.7
42.8
12438
50.8
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6.9
CALM
TOTALS
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PERCENT
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(KKOTS)
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38.976
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762524.253
SUM. OF E. COMP0NENT5 ( Z X )
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SUH. OF N. COMPONENTS ( 2 Y )
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o \ Standard déviation of east componenti
o« Standard déviation of wind componenti along the major axil of the distribution
<r, Standard déviation of north componenti
e,, Standard déviation of wind componenti perpendicular to the major axit of the distribution
' r Standard voctor déviation of wind velocily
Y
Angle of rotation of the major axil of Ihe wind distribution counter-clockwite from E-W dirtclion
r
8
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Corrélation coefficient of north and «ait componenti
7 Average wind speed
V r Résultant wind speed
V Scalar Wind Speed
om Standard déviation of w i n d speedi
50.8
a.
23. 1 7 8
00
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Probability Cônes of 0.40 and 0.95 Probability of 36, 72, and
108-Hour Movement of Tropical Storms Passing Through a
Five-Degree Latitude and Longitude Square Centered on the
Path of August 1964 "Cleo"
H
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Square l _ The most southerly and easterly f ive-degree
square of the nine squares used in this study. Storms
were moved to a point on "Cleo's" path in center of
square from their closest 7AM position.
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THREE DIMENSIONAL ISOTROPIC WIND DISTRIBUTION
H
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Wind speed against height at Tateno, Japan,
I to 15 February I953. (Arakawa, I 9 5 6 )
THREE-DIMENSIONAL GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY
48-HOUR PREDICTION OF WIND SPEED PROFILES
CAPE KENNEDY, FLORIDA
I
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FEBRUARY 19, 20 AND 21, 1200Z, 1962
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ACTUAL OR OBSERVER WIND SPEED
PREDICTED WIND SPEED
00
84
4.
UPPER AIR RECORDS QUALITY CONTROL
Dr. Filippov already has described some of the problems in quality control. Hère, as
an example of problems faced in the quality control of geophysical data, one phase only is
discussed. It is the upper air program for the year of 1967. There are, in gênerai, four
types of errors considered. Thèse are (1) procédural, (2) operational, (3) climatological,
and (4) non-chargeable. Thèse are discussed now in slightly more détail.
1.
Procédural Errors- Those errors that are most serious and therefore are
indicated in a Discrepancy Report with an asterisk (*). The gênerai types
of errors which fall into this category are given below:
a.
Baseline check (BLC) errors that affect the accuracy of the entire
observation.
b.
Errors that resuit in a accumulated pressure altitutde (PA) error
of 100 m. or more.
c.
Use of erroneous calibration charts, scales, rules, recorder calibrations,
etc.
d.
Improper techniques that affect the accuracy of the entire observation,
such as incorrect release contact or contact count on recorder record
5 or more off.
e.
Other errors of major importance affecting more than one transmitted
level, such as:
(1) Failure to make a second release at land station when required.
(2) The surface pressure which was used was incorrect by 5 millibars
or more.
(3) The wind directions for significant strata evaluated 90° or more
in error when speeds 5 meters per second or more.
(4) The wind speed for significant strata evaluated 5 meters per
second or more in error.
(5) Two successive mandatory levels transmitted in error (altitude
100 m. or more, température 5°C. or more, wind speeds 5 meters
per second or more in error) .
2.
Operational Errors - Those errors which either affected the coded message but do
not qualify as procédural errors, or which potentially could hâve affected the
coded message. Some examples of operational errors follow:
a.
Any coding error that is not procédural.
b.
Any error to the évaluation of pressure, température, humidity, altitude
or wind data.
c.
Failure to sélect necessary significant levels on the recorder record.
d.
Any error to the plotting of pressure, température, humidity or altitude
data.
e.
3.
4.
85
Superdiabatic lapse rate not marked "rechecked" or marked "rechecked" but
error detected that éliminâtes the superdiabatic lapse rate.
Climatological Errors - Those errors which neither affected nor potentially could
affect the coded message. Some examples of climatological errors follow:
a.
Errors in identification or date/time data.
b.
Incorrect entries of intermediate altitudes, températures, humidities
or wind data.
c.
Errors in the sélection and classification of code types or altitude
entries for Punched Card Significant Level Data.
Non-Çhargeable Errors - In addition to the charged errors, corrections are made
as necessary to the forms or punched cards that are not listed in the Discrepancy
Report or counted in the Bi-Monthly Raob Discrepancy Tabulation. Some examples
of thèse errors follow:
a.
Key punch errors of data entered legibly.
b.
Key punch errors of data entered slightly illegibly.
nor key punch operator charged.
c.
Many errors due to misinterpretation of the instructions or carlessness
of personnel at newly-opened stations; notes given for instructional
purposes but not errors charged.
Neither station
The errors considered during the year of 1967 are as follows:
Upper Air Unit Quality Control - 1967
# Obs. Checked (WB & Coopérative only) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - # Procédural Errors Charged to Stations - - - - - _ - - - _ _ - _ _ - _ _
# Operational Errors Charged to Stations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - # Climatological Errors Charged to Stations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - # Total Errors Charged to Stations - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Errors/100 O b s . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ _ _ _ _ _
% Procédural Errors - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7» Operational Errors - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - % Climatological Errors - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ - - - - - _ - _ - _
Note:
82,200
884
7,862
13,673
22,419
26.8/100
3.9%
35.17»
61.0%
The above totals do not include any of the following:
1.
Key punch errors
2.
Incorrect punches due to slightly illegible entries (no charge made to station or
key punch operator)
3.
Corrections made to data where no error charge made to station.
note on discrepancy report or administrative correspondence.)
4.
Reclassification of the data (accurate, doubtful or missing).
(Action taken by
Quite clearly it is shown that without the quality control program at the last stage a considérable number of errors would enter the archives.
86
The following information may be of interest. In the Card Punch Unit at the NWRC
since 1959 the record of key punch errors is as follows:
Year
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968 (4 mos.)
5.
Total Cards Punched
Total Errors
Percent in Error
1,762,282
1,529,858
1,875.037
2,086,330
2,869,279
2,859,067
2,075,649
1,854,322
2,612,600
746,236
7,060
5,756
9,825
11,624
14,933
14,901
9,875
7,524
12,887
3,777
.4
.4
.5
.6
.5
.5
.5
.4
.5
.5
STORAGE
You hâve seen the storage facilities hère at the National Weather Records Center for
manuscript records and original records. In some cases thèse are placed on microfilm. Some
records are placed on punched cards. The shelf-life of punched cards is not much more than
ten years. Punched cards after ten years become brittle, become warped and, in gênerai,
become very difficult to use.
You hâve seen some of the results of microfilming of the punched cards by means of
the Filmed Optical Sensing Devices for Input to Computers (FOSDIC). This permits, at the
présent time, a réduction of storage space of 150 to 1. The microfilm can be used to produce new cards when needed. Also under development is the transfer of information in this
microfilm to magnetic tape for entry into computers as well as the direct input from the
microfilm to computers.
Magnetic tape is another mode of storage. It also is not a type of permanent storage.
Either the magnetic tape must be periodically read, erased and rewritten or the tape must
be exercised. The latter expression indicates simply that the tape must be unwound and rewound so that the same places do not stay together and exchange their magnetism. At the
présent time it seems that magnetic tape, if properly made, may hâve a shelf-life somewhat
greater than a décade. Magnetic tape made in the field, or in the laboratory, or in experiments presumably will not hâve the préparation care. In this case where improper gain has
been used the record may be unreadable after three or four months. At the présent time,
magnetic tape is considered to be a working médium and a short-range storage médium but
certainly not a permanent storage médium.
Various proposais hâve been made for the réduction, storage, and servicing of climatological information. Some appear promising but very expensive.
Photographie optical techniques are being explored. Some suggestions appear to hâve
merit, others do not. The use of laser in photographie processes has been proposed.
Figures 13(a-c) are examples of one technique being explored, Munari and Bellamy (11).
Hère we see a graphical type coding of a photographie réduction of the data progressively
from one month to several months. The technique is called SIPLIC and is still being
developed and studied. SIPLIC is the acronym for Scaled Incrémental, Periodically Labelled,
Incrementally Continuous. Development of this technique is supported in part by Research
and Development funds at the NWRC, as is also the work on the development of the FOSDIC
techniques.
SHERIDAN WB AP
J a n . 1955
i"
i
iinn>"«
• • ! • • » • • • * • • • ••"•"••••!••
I
m
• ** 11111 n i i • 1111 • • • • • •
i i i i M i i i i i i i i a i i g i i i i D
F i g. 13a.
87
88
SHER1DAN W B AP
1955
10-
Jan.
20-*
• •!••
| t | - -
30r-n
•l l •il
i
Bilillll'lllliMiin
llllllll
• •••» — ••••••••-••••
Il
S.
o
Q
n i " i i ' i i n i " '
PENTIADIC
Fcb.
2
t • il t uni
1 • n 11•11• ••
• ••••!•
• • ~||r
••••i
•11••111m
-..
... -h
i
n | i
>T
uni
i-i»»--iri«nii",«>
MOT.
innui"' — "
••• | _ i
111 r* 1111 ••••«•••••••• »
• ••••»•••
n
• H--Il'--Ilr*l
n
i
i«
5
mi....
1
• •l>«MI1'"'TI
••iiii"iinii««'»
t
6
f
Fig. 1 3 b .
NOTATION
-Accumulation in inches-
HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
— SIPLIC NOTATION —
Casper W.B. AP 1949-1961
Casper. Wyoming
A
1
I
ËÊ^SÊ
-/ -
•-==£
S
m
É
SSSSS S S 5 S
—.--•-_ "
=
^
5
5
^
É
1 S
i
^___ï
"
£
-
"
., - - • -• •" •. = - —-_-
HÉ
I^T^
._..
x1
Jt
•'•'- ---,-: \ _ . - . - - • - •
- ' •
'
—
'
-„. - -
:
. . .
"— 1 --
:
_
-
"--- " " |
"
=—-: imt :
L
-
.
==
i
-~
-
__. : ~. ==_-"1^
-L^-
'
' ' '
'— -
i
''
"
-
.: v;:
- _::s
'.'•-;
:.
—.'" _,~-71.
T
=
_
_-.-.
"
l
^
T
Z
=-r^
— _ _. -: - •
:.-z- • — —
_
^..TlTr ." - —:. -— _~.~^7 "•"_ - :_^ ^^v^ iSS5S= 77- - •
= - - — -"—1 - ._ " *- — "Sfe^ ; = s
I7
n--T- ^ J _ ~ _
:"
vr. i •— J _ ^ i — .
"T=~~
^=— =r:—;: _• —=---"•= ^ • - . - 5 !____ ——=
ÏZÎLrTg =-^— '
— ïïSI .-—-:- ! —'1 =^-•=2 - •• ;- .^,
^Zl
ii:-;r-_- :=TZ= î - ^ - ~ =
:— -"
=-~""^=>~"
==^
~.—'
^==>
_ - - ^ ^ F =
^ - - = 1 '— T •;"
-
"---'-•~ ^ Ë
r- , • " _
:
ci
- ;- - :-'
-_ .
r#^T
m
7
—
ci:: • rf __:-- -. - - •—-• • —
. ==-•==
,
_.—=
« f 3 | ^ - i — ;- -=:-••;-.-"
..-.-" - - . :: =^
i
. '.
1.
•--.:-—_
—1 '-— "" - _ ^ — • ===| - vQ|| =—•" ;•. -=
_
__ ^
— --=^—
===^
-ù&^m. g| .-- = -^ A ' ~-~~
— ~~"~"77'
=^=
Sffl ^ _ = - . I
1
• gLg ;
— ..^-H
;
_
i^â
-. ~'J7
:.v"-—
;;__
-fr V „.. •— - --^s -—s .—-—-= ^— • -— ---•
ï- T;; b'- ' 5 .^^~
= = -- .—-—
— — -^
-_ . •.••
n
=—=
J-— "'
— - --—
_ _
^-^r-
i-^—-
m
SU
||j|
_•_. •. ..-•
S
B
^_-;_~- --| = j " _;__ ^-S-l
J'~
= S = ~~-_;
-
• - • ' _" ~v --•- _. ~-vf ^;;":"_'
• --• ^-.--r:;- ~
-••• — r r = _ ^
- ^__-" ,
."
—
—sgg — • —
-! • ~" ^ . r ^ r .
—; v •.
-"" _•
_
r^-:
— -.^ --•••--
iis
;
^s-—
_ ._.
•" 1 •' É
= = S
-.
. : g'____'
SPS
@ r S
— i
~r
-
• ' >- : ^ g
^m
—
. •. j
=~~ ~i"T
___—
~--
^ S
-- —-
TS==-.
~~
—=T—
. . "... ^=L ^=3^F~
.- '-: ~^-
----= -~
" "
-• • = î
J — -—.
"- —
:
"~
~ - r -z
IZ^T'..- - '' — • - _^^
. •~ %^H^. :
•
—
~~:,
_:
_:
.S: —
MB ~ ^ "
^^-—^ —:
z^^.-^r=
- .
. ..
-"— •^2.-^1' " - • •
. T^-E.-.-^-^ E ^ ' » ^ j r :
_r=-î.-v
•
-,; .- ^ . - - - "~
—-I - . . _ = ™
•- -.'
_ .-^- -~
|
'
•
_
"
i
_~~;
"
_"
.-::
_
.
_
:
-.
"
".
'"'
"_:
.
;
_—
_-_-_T
. - - -- :_=^r« .-' 1
- ,_
- - I _'
• —• -— --SS£ i g
—T.__ --—
, .7—- -•-—-— " _ ^ _ _ j Z£~=
55=*"*
^_ =ui-j= -7
——
_ ^^^=^
1 — - —
=
—
_i„. .
Flg. 13c.
__
89
90
6.
CONCLUSION
Some ideas on entropy and information hâve been presented, a few of the problems faced
in the quality control and processing of data hâve been indicated, and some of the techniques
used to extract information from the channel and the archives communication hâve been illustrated.
7.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Acknowledgment is made to ail my colleagues at the National Weather Records Center.
Spécial acknowledgment is made to Mr. Herman Steffan and Mrs. Rachel Babb for the statistics
on errors and quality control, to Mr. Joseph Meserve for the discussion on the tower wind
records, to Mr. Ray Hoxit and Mr. Ned Guttman for editorial aid, and to Mr. Ray Crâne for
drafting of the necessary figures. Appréciation is expressed to Dr. John Bellamy for permission to use materials presented in Figures 13a, 13b and 13 c.
91
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1.
Arakawa, H.: "Characteristics of the Low-Level Jet Stream," Journal of Meteorology,
Vol. 13, No. 5, October 1956, pp. 504-506.
2.
Brooks, C. E. P. and Carruthers, N.: Handbook of Statistical Methods in Meteorology,
Air Ministry, Meteorological Office, London, 1953, 412 pp.
3.
Crutcher, H. L.: "Wind Aid From Wind Roses," Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, Vol. 37, No. 8, October 1956, pp. 391-402.
4.
Crutcher, H. L., Bintasant, S. and Fropp, D. K.: "A Note on Climatology of Thailand
and Southeast Asia," Unpublished Manuscript (1967), National Weather Records Center,
Asheville, North Carolina, 166 pp.
5.
Crutcher, H. L. and Charles, B. N.: "Spectrum Analysis of Upper Winds," Unpublished
Manuscript (1960), National Weather Records Center, Asheville, North Carolina.
6.
Crutcher, H. L. and Durham, R. L.: "Prédiction of Wind Profiles at Cape Kennedy,
Florida, with Emphasis on Multiple Régression Techniques," Unpublished Manuscript
(1965), National Weather Records Center, Asheville, North Carolina, 46 pp.
7.
Fisher, R. A.: "On the Mathematical Foundations of Theoretical Statistics,"
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Séries A, Vol. 222,
1922, pp. 309-368.
8.
Haggard, William H-, Crutcher, H. L., and Whiting, G. C.: "Storm Strike Probabilities,"
Presented at the Fourth Technical Conférence on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,
Miami, Florida, 1956.
9.
Herdan, G.:
10.
Language
as Çhoice and Chance, P. Noordhoff N. V., Groningen, 1956.
2
Masuyama, Motosaburo: "Tables of n, log n, n loge n and n (log n) for n = 1
Through 500 with Applications," Reports of Statistical Applications Research Union
of Japanese Scientists and Engineers, Vol. 7, 1960, pp. 56-64.
11.
Munari, Anton C. and Bellamy, John C.: " , SIPLIC , Forms of Hourly Précipitation
Data - Casper, Cheyenne, Lander, Sheridan: 1949-1961," Natural Resources Research
Institute, Collège of Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, August
1965, 25 pp. (Research and Development Report 8-66, National Weather Records Center).
12.
Neyman,J. and Pearson, E. S.: "On the Use and Interprétation of Certain Test
Criteria for Purposes of Statistical Inference," Biometrika, Vol. 20A, 1928,
pp. 175-240 and 263-294.
13.
Pearson, Karl: "On the criterion that a given System of déviations from the probable
in the case of a correlated System of variables is such that it can be resonably
supposed to hâve arisen from random sampling," Philosophical Magazine and Journal of
Science, Séries 5, Vol. 50, 1900, pp. 157-172.
14.
Shannon, C. E.: "A Mathematical Theory of Communication," Bell System Technical
Journal, Vol. 27, 1948, pp. 379-423 and 623-656.
92
DAILY NORMALS FROM MONTHLY NORMALS
by
H. C. S. Thom
Environmental Science Services Administration
ABSTRACT
A method is developed for Computing the day of the month on which the mean température
falls. By differentiating a three point Lagrange periodic interpolation formula an équation
for finding the time position of the maximum and minimum of the annual march is obtained.
The three point formula may then be used to obtain the maximum and minimum values. This
provides the two extrêmes and the ten monthly values to which the Lagrange periodic formula
may be applied.
For précipitation the Lagrange power interpolation formula may be applied to the
accumulation of monthly normals. Differentiating this gives a formula for obtaining the
daily normals.
93
ON THE CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF LOCAL
SERIES OF OBSERVATIONS
by
R. ^Sneyers
Institut royal météorologique de Belgique
1.
INTRODUCTION
The study of the climate on a régional scale is generally governed by the contrast
between the hugeness of the amount of information accumulated at central stations, i.e.,
stations in activity at officiai meteorological offices and the poorness of the available
observations gathered at the local stations of the neighbouring climatological network.
The fact is that at central stations the components of the climate hâve usually been
observed during periods covering, in many cases, a hundred of years or more, whereas at
local stations the length of the periods of observations exceeds seldom thirty or even
twenty years.
Therefore, when considering the main practical problem of climatological analysis which
is to find the way of ascribing a précise probability to a given observed value, the answer
seems to be much less easy for local than for central stations.
The situation is, however, not always as bad as it appears at first sight. In reality,
the observations both at central and local stations, moderately distant one from another, are
often well correlated and the purpose of this paper, is to show how and when this corrélation
may be used in order to improve the knowledge of the s tatistical properties of the climate
at local stations when only short séries of observations are available.
More precisely, two kinds of improvements are possible, the first one being provided
by the occurrence of a good corrélation between the observations at the local stations and
the corresponding ones at the central station, and the second one, by the existence of a
regular variation of the properties of the considered climatological component ail over the
country.
Both improvements will be considered hère and the necessary methods outlined.
2.
SINGLE REGIONAL SERIES OF OBSERVATIONS
Let X dénote the climatological variate at the central station and Y the corresponding
variate at the local station. Moreover assume that owing to the fact that a long séries of
observations is available, the distribution function of X is well known.
It follows that one manner of solving the problem is to find some one-one relation
between X and Y as:
Y = f(X)
such that x 0 being given, the corresponding value:
(1)
94
ON THE CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF LOCAL SERIES OF OBSERVATIONS
leads to:
Prob (Y £ y 0 ) = Prob (X £ x 0 )
(3)
The case that will be considered hère is the linear one, i.e., the case where the relation
(1) is
Y = aiX + bj
(4)
where ax and bj are known constants. As it is easy to verify, this is the case of a great
deal of meteorological variâtes.
In fact, if we assume that the distributions of X and Y are entirely defined through
the sarae auxiliary variate U by the location parameters p, and ^ and the scale parameters
a and o1 the quantiles x 0 and y0 corresponding to the quantile u 0 will be given by the
équations:
x
o
= ou
o
+
M-
(5)
and
y0 = a a u 0 + jij
(6)
Prob(X s x 0 ) = Prob(Y £ y 0 ) = Prob(U £ u 0 )
(7)
such that
Eliminating u 0 between (5) and (6) gives:
CT
1
y0
=
~
CT
1
x
(8)
o + h - — v-
and by identification:
a
i
=
~
a n d
b
i
=
^1 ~
a
i
^9)
Remembering then that many meteorological variâtes hâve normal, log-normal, double exponential (Fisher-Tippett Type II) distributions (at least with a good approximation) this
demonstrates our statement.
2.1
The estimation of al
and bx
One method which should immediately be discarded is the ordinary method of least squares
applied to a séries of corresponding observations.
The reason is that this method introduces a bias because it substitutes to the relation
2(4) some relation of the form:
Y' = a' X + b'
(1)
var Y' = C 3 var Y< var Y
(2)
with
where Ç is the coefficient of corrélation between the corresponding observations of X and Y.
The method of estimation to use becomes, in reality, quite clear, as soon as one
considers the variâtes X and Y as related in a bivariate distribution. It appears then
obvious that a-! and bx raay be estimated by introducing in 2(9) the estimations of the
95
parameters of the distributions of X and Y given by a sample of corresponding observations,
that is to make:
*
"
t"
aa = ox /a
where o", , cr, )j,1 and p, are the necessary
*
"
*
"
bj = jij - aj \i
(3)
i
(unbiased) estimations.
Moreover, if the parameters a and |j of the distribution of X are known, another set of
estimations of a1 and b1 may be given by the relations:
âx = ax/o
Bj = u^ - &l \i
(4)
and the question raises then which ones to choose.
In fact, the answer is (cf [l] ) that if Ç is the coefficient of corrélation between
the corresponding observations of X and Y, the set (3) has to be preferred to the set (4)
as soon as we hâve
k l >QC
(5)
with, in the case of a bivariate normal distribution, Ç - /0,5 • 0,707.. for ax and 0,5 £ Çc
S /0,5 for bx , and in the more gênerai case where Cj , ô, p.j and p, are linear estimâtes ,
approximately with Qc = 0,5, both for a1 and bj^ .
In other words, the estimators (3) are improved estimators as soon as the corrélation
between X and Y is sufficiently high.
In practice, the application of the criterion (5) may appear to be difficult since Ç
is generally unknown.
More grecisely, assuming for simplicity Q > 0, if this criterion is applied to the
estimation £ of the coefficient of corrélation, two kinds of errors are possible:
(1) ï > Qc when C < Cc
(2) Q < Qc when C > Cc
(6)
so that it may perhaps be advisable to substitute to Ç some other critical value Ç' which
balances both errors.
In this respect it seems reasonable to make Ç' equal to the médian of the distribution
of Ç for Q = Ç since, in that case, we will hâve:
Prob (C > p
> Prob (Ç < Ç^) with Ç > ÇQ
Prob Û > Ç') < Prob (Ç < r') with Ç < Ç
(7)
c
c
c
In the case of a bivariate normal distriûtionând remembering then that according to
R. A. Fisher (of [2] p. 467), log [(1 + Q/(l-Q]
has approximately a normal distribution,
and
•""The unbiasedness of the estimations of a. , a, jï^ and p, has some importance since it may be
indispensable to the unbiasedness of a : and bj^ .
3
It should be mentioned hère that in our paper [l] the treatment of the linear case was only
valid for linear estimators of the type of the mean (ail coefficients equal). It is, however
easy to show that if the régression between the observations of X and Y is sufficiently
regular, the given criterion remains valid for linear estimators in the gênerai case. (For
the correct treatment see also section 2.2.1).
96
with raean log [(1 + Q/(l-Q]
+ Ç/(n-l), one finds that for n » 11, Q = 0.5 or Q = 0.707,
the médian is found to be respectively equal to 0,48 and 0,69.
It follows that in that case even for small samples the médian of Q does not differ
much from the exact value of Q so that it seems unnecessary to proceed to any modification
of the criterion.
For the more gênerai case of linear estimâtes it may be argued that the différence
between the médian and the true value of Q will generally be small in comparison with the
sample error of estimation.
2.2
The estimation of ax and \j^ .
For practical use it is generally préférable to express the distribution of Y directly
in function of the auxiliary variate U instead of the variate X. This means that the adjusted
distribution function of Y may be defined either by:
Y = a, u + k
(i)
Y - Ôj u + m
(2)
or by:
where âx and pu are the ordinary estimators of al and jxx » whereas the élimination of X
between:
Y = a1 X + b* and X = a U + u.
(3)
CTj = ô^Ca/cj) and \i% = Hj + a1 (\i-[i)
W
shows that
It is thus clear that the nature of the improvement operating in the case of a
sufficient corrélation may be considered as some kind of correction of the bias of the
sample values with respect to the population values.
Of course, the variances of thèse improved estimâtes may be calculated in a manner
similar to the one used In [l].
By differentiating (4) and neglecting terms of order greater than the first one we may
write:
d ô and d ^ = d Hi~aid |j.
V->;
var CTj = var ôx + a1 var a - 2aa covC^ ,â)
(6)
d Oi = d o1-al
thus:
and
var p.a • var ^ + % var u. - 2ax cov(u.x,p,)
(7)
2.2.1 Linear estimâtes
Let x £ x <; ... s x , and ya £ y s ^ ... * y be the ordered samples of observations
of X and Y. The estimâtes n will thus be of the form:
â = S ^ i x i , î - S u i x i , 3-j - E A i y ± and ^ = S
v ^
(D
where \ . and v
97
are well determined constants
If ||v || dénotes then the matrix of the joint distribution of the ordered sample
values of theJauxiliary variate U, putting
ES \ ± \
v±.
= Q(\,\)
(2)
and assuming again for simplicity a > 0, a, > 0 and Ç > 0, it follows that:
var a = Q ^ . À ) ^ ,
var \± = QOjiOcr3,
2
s
var â : = Q(\,\)aa, var u^ = QCu.u)^
(3)
whereas it is easy to show that in the case of a regular régression between X and Y
cov (ô\ , à) = QiX.X)^
Ç'
,
(4>
cov (^ ,M) = Q(u,u)alCT C'
where Ç' equals or approaches the corrélation coefficient Q between X and Y.
Hence, with 2.2.(6) and 2.2.(7):
*
*
var CTj = 2(1-Ç ) var ox and var ^ = 2(l-£ ) var p^
(5)
It appears thus, that the réduction factor for both estimâtes is 2(l-£') which makes the
condition of their use again:
2(l-f') < 1
or C
>k
(6)
2.2.2 Estimâtes in a bivariate normal distribution
From relations remembered in [l], 2.2(6) and 2.2(7) give immediately:
var o^ = 2(1-Ç"d) var dx , var \kx = 2(l-£) var \±x
(1)
Hence, the réduction factors are hère 2(l-£s) for the estimâtes of the standard déviation
and 2(l-£) for the mean, whereas the conditions of use become: £3 > % for the former and
Q >\ for the latter. The différence of the sélection criteria concerning b : and ^ should
hère be well noted.
2.3
Efficlency
The question of calculating the efficlency of the improved estimations may, of course,
be only answered if the distribution function of the variâtes is known. Therefore, the
case of normal variâtes will first be considered.
In that case, assuming that the values of a, p. and Q are known in the bivariate
normal distribution of X and Y, it may be shown [3] with the use of the likelihood function
that the variances of the estimators with asympototically minimum variance are for pj and
0*j respectively:
var
K
= (1-ÇS) var p,,
var oj =
2
. r^
var
°1
^
It follows that the efficiencies of the estimators in 2.2.2 are respectively:
e(Mn) = i-C3
with
C< h or e ( ^ ) = ^-y^
with Q > %
(2)
98
and
eCa,) =
2{l Ç3)
with Ç3 < h or e( 0l ) = ~ f t with Qa > %
2 Q
~
'
1 ^
(3)
The use of the sélection criteria leads thus to estimators whose efficiencies are never less
than 3/4 for \u and never less than 2/3 for o1; moreover they tend to one when Q approaches
1 or 0 in both cases .
In the same order of ideas it may be asked if efficient estimators of 1.1 and a3 are
available in a simple form. For p,a the maximum likelihood équation leads to the efficient
estimator:
Mi
" Mi + ai b Cji ~ M-)
(4)
- (1-C2) var ^
(5)
with variance:
var i^
For o\ the maximum likelihood équation being of the second order, does not provide a simple
solution.
An improved estimator f o r ^ may, however, be used in the form:
o, -a^Z)
(6)
•krk
var G1 = (1-C 4 ) var â1
(7)
with variance:
Its efficiency is then given by:
**
9
e(a, ) =
(8)
(2-C3)d + C2)
which is never less than 0.89 and which tends to 1 when Ç approaches 1 or 0.
Fin.a.llv it should be mentioned that in the case of linear estimators, the estimators
AA
p.a and al
are more efficient than p^ and â^ for any value of £' * Q fi 0.
3.
SIMULTANEOUS LOCAL SERIES OF OBSERVATIONS
When climatological analysis has to be applied to local séries of observations of some
climatological élément, the properties of which présent a regular variation ail over the
région taken in considération, further improvement in the estimation of the necessary
parameters is generally possible with the use of régression analysis.
Therefore, the opérations should be carried out in the following order:
(1) estimations on a régional scale of the corrélation coefficient between the local
observations and the corresponding ones at the central station;
(2) improved estimation of the scale parameter with taking into account both the
corrélation with the central station and the existence of a régional variation of its values;
(3) similar estimation of the location parameter with using the fact that (2) supplies
an improved knowledge of the scale parameter.
99
Besides Ç > 0, we shall assume also that ail the séries hâve the same length n and that
there are nT local séries. Of course, the hypothesis that the distribution of the élément
under considération is well known at the central station, remains fundamental.
3.1
Estimation of the corrélation coefficient
It is obvious that the corrélation coefficient between local and central observations
may be considered as a function of the distance d between the local and the central stations
and some angular coordinate cp such that we hâve:
C • C(d, cp)
(1)
Moreover, it seems wise to try first the simplest assumptions on the form of the
relationship (1) and to go over to more complicated ones only if the first one fails to give
a good représentation. This means that we hâve to assume first the existence of some linear
relation of the form:
C = Co - kd
(2)
where Q0 and k are constants, k = 0 being the trivial case where Ç is itself a constant.
For estimating Q0 and k in équation (2), the method to be used is, of course, the
method of least squares as it appears in régression analysis, since in that way the necessary
significance tests may generally be applied ( at least with a good approximation). More
precisely if, on one side, one may be interested to know if k = 0, on the other side, it is
important to be sure that the assumption of the linearity of the relation (1) should not be
rejected.
For the latter assumption itîs clear that it should not be rejected if the discrepancies between the estimated values Ç,, i = 1, 2, ... nx and the corresponding calculated
values:
Ci = Co - kd t
given by the least square method may be considered as sample errors of estimate.
then that for normal variâtes (of [4] p. 211),
(3)
Remembering
var Ç = (l-C3)2/n
(4)
the test may be performed by considering that under the null hypothesis (of [5 ] p. 295) the
quantity:
S ( q - q) 2 /var Ç, with 1 = Z Çjn,
(5)
has approximately a x2~distribution with (nx-2) degrees of freedom.
For the former assumption, use may be made of the fact that, if k=0, the expression
(of [5] p. 296):
t = k [(n1-2)Z(di-d)a/Z(Ci-q)2 J
(6)
where d = S d , / n 1 , will hâve hère approximately a t-distribution with (nx-2) degrees of
freedom.
One remark should be mentioned for each test. About the use of the x 3 - t e s t it must be
noted that if the local stations are correlated with the central station, the local stations
are certainly correlated the ones with the others too in such a manner that the estimâtes
Ç may not be considered as quite indépendant among themselves. It follows that the expression (5) has generally a larger variance than the x2~distribution with (nj-2) degrees of
freedom.
100
For the expression (6), it will be sufficient to remember that if it leads to a nonsignificant value of t, this means that even if k f 0 there is no practical improvement in
using the relation (3) instead of making £' = Q.
Of course, the relation (4) remains of use only if the joint distribution of the
climatological éléments is normal or approximately normal; it has to be properly changed if
this assumption is not verified.
3.2
Estimation of the scale paramater.
It is clear that the knowledge of the relation 3,1(1) makes it possible to define
some limit in the considered région by means of the équation:
C(d, 9) - Cc
(1)
such that Oj should be used as estimator for al on one sideând a. on the other side. Moreover it allows eventually a précise use of the estimator a
too.
When the proper estimâtes o~., a or a. , i=l, 2, ..., nx of the scale parameters hâve
then been calculated, one may try again to obtain a further improvement of thèse estimâtes
by going in search of some functional relation:
a = a(d, cp)
(2)
in an analogous manner as in 3.1 for the corrélation coefficient.
In fact, if the région is sufficiently homogeneous relatively to the weather conditions
which influence its climate, one may expect that the statistical properties of the élément
under investigation will présent a regular variation ail over that région.
Of course, the coordinates d and 9 will not necessarily be the best ones to get an easy
expression of that relationship and mostly they will be advantageously replaced by some
geographical characteristic like the élévation above sea level, the distance from the sea
shore, the latitude of the station, etc.
Hère again, just like in 3.1, the validity of the adjusted relation should be
approximately tested by considering the sum of squares of the residuals divided by the mean
value of the variances of the proper estimâtes obtained for a , and the significance of
the coefficients of that relation should be verified.
Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that if v is the number of the estimated
coefficients in the adjusted relations, (nj-u) will be the number of degrees of freedom in
the x3~test whereas analogous remarks to those made in 3.1 hâve to take place hère too.
3.3
Estimation of the location parameter
The estimations of the location parameter should, of course, be made In the same way
as the estimation of the scale parameter, taking into account that this.time the sélection
criterion is in both considered cases Q > %, when using the estimâtes \i..
Moreover it should benoticed too that the knowledge of relations of the form 3.1(3) and
the use
use of
of the
the relation:
the
relation:
u, or
or u.
u.
3.2(2) enables for u.
1
1
1
*
H i = Hi + a ±(u- " M-)
(1)
M,±
(2)
or
- JH + a ' t C'(n - n)
where, in the ratio a' , o
4.
101
is estimated by means of the relation 3.2(2).
ERRORS OF ESTIMATE FOR QUANTILES
For ail the considered cases the final estimate y' of the quantile y of the climatological élément is some local station may be expressed by the relation:
y' = CT'U + n«
(1)
P
P P
where a' and fi' are ordinary estimâtes, estimâtes corrected for the corrélation or ultimately
calculated through functional régression.
Moreover, each of thèse estimâtes of a and \i having asymptotic normal distributions,
the same happens for y' with variance:
var
y1 = u a var CT' + var
u' + 2u COV(O-',LL')
P
P
or, if we neglect the last term in (2):
(2)
P
var y' = u 3 var cr' + var u 1
(3)
P
P
Of course, this neglection shall be justified only if cov (a', p,') = 0 or if its
contribution to var y' is sufficiently small.
P
To discuss this, let us write for ail the cases:
d a' = E b dâ
and
d^' = E c d|I
(4)
b, = &£•
and
c. -&£•
(5)
where
1
ôo^
J
b\i.
Hence:
var a1 • EE b .b. cov (ô, ,ô\), var u,' = EE c.c. cov (û. ,û.)
i j
i' y
*
cov (a' ,^') = EE b ^
i j
ri'^y
cov (a^jî.)
(6)
It follows immediately from this that for the normal case, cov (ô\ , (L) = 0 leads to:
covCa'.n') - 0
(7)
For the linear case, the development of expression (6) in a manner analogous to the
one in 2.2.1 leads to:
var a' = favar a, var ii' = f2var p., cov (a',p,') = f
COV(CT,^L)
where fa = f2 = f if b, = c. and where f does not differ much from *Ji1 f2 if b
(8)
j4 c .
It follows that the contribution of the last term in (2) remains In ail cases
proportional or approximately proportional to its contribution in the case of ordinary
estimâtes.
In particular, for the double exponential law, the neglection of the last term in (2)
is generally justified since for small samples it appears from the data given by Lieblein
that cov (â,p,) remains small relatively to var Jl and var ô (cf [a] p. 72), whereas for
larger samples, the Cramer-Rao lower bound shows (of [a] p. 17 and p. 14) that the error of
102
estimation of the standard error does not exceed 137o.
The conclusion is that the estimâtes of var a' and of var p.1 deduced1 from the sums of
squares of residuals of the régressions calculated in 3.2 and in 3.3 may be introduced in
(3) to give var y' with a sufficient accuracy.
5.
AN EXAMPLE
The method has been applied to the study of the snow lying conditions in Belgium [7]
for which 75 years of observations were available at the central station of Brussels and
eleven to twenty years at 14 local stations distributed ail over the country.
The distribution functions used to describe the statistical properties of the snow
cover are normal, log-normal, double exponential and log-double exponential (Fisher-Tippett
Type II) distributions.
It has, for instance, been settled that the total number of days with snow lying
varies in our country at the médian from 14 to 88 days with a standard error growing up from
1 to 9 days, whereas the maximum depth of the snow goes at the médian from 6 cm to 32 cm
with a standard error of about 1 cm. Moreover, it has been found that the élévation above
sea-level explains practically ail régional différences in that field.
6.
CONCLUSION
It is well known that ail meteorological variâtes hâve not normal or double exponential
distributions. In many cases, however, their distributions are fairly well approximated in
one manner or another by the mentioned probability laws.
It is thus to believe that the outlined method présents really some Interest for the
climatological analysis on a régional scale.
REFERENCES
1 - Sneyers, R.
Sur la notion d'indépendance climatologique, Revue de Stat. Appliquée, 1966,
XIV, 2, 31-36.
2 - Cramer, H.
Mathematical Methods of Statistics, Princeton University Press, 1958.
3 - Sneyers, R. Note sur la notion d'indépendance climatologique, In préparation,
4 - Kendall, M. G. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Vol. I. London, Charles Griffin and
C°, 1947.
5 - Mood, A. M.
Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1950.
6 - Lieblein, J. A New Method of Analyzing Extrême Value Data, N.A.C.A., Technical Note
3053, Washington, D.C.
7 - Sneyers, R. Les propriétés statistiques de 1 enneigement du sol en Belgique, Institut
Royal Météorologique de Belgique, Pub. A. 63, 1967.
x
cf L2j p. 551
103
PROCESSING UPPER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL USE
Lloyd V. Mitchell
USAF Environmental Technical Applications Center
Washington, D.C.
INTRODUCTION
Interest in the structure and state of the atmosphère above 25 kilometers developed
almost over night in the United States. This rapid development of interest was not accidentai. Accurate prédiction of a spacecraft"s trajectory during re-entry requires knowledge
of atmospheric conditions (4). Furthermore, the staging altitudes for spacecraft are in
the 35- to 80-kilometer région (13) ; some aerospace vehicles perform boost-glide opérations
between 25 and 90 kilometers (8), and the supersonic-transport aircraft is expected to
operate near 25 kilometers. Consequently, interest in atmospheric conditions at 25 kilometers and above has continued to increase. Several times each week, I receive requests
for atmospheric data above 25 kilometers or inquiries relative to the availability of such
data. Thèse requests may be for spécifie observations or for summarized data.
Until recently, knowledge of the atmosphère above 25 kilometers had been so meager
that the 25- to 200-kilometer région had been labeled the "ignosphere" (10) . Information
relative to the conditions in this portion of the upper atmosphère on both a real-time
basis and long-term summaries (climatology) is required. For example, atmospheric parameters were measured or computed between 24 and 100 kilometers, and extrapolated up to 120
kilometers, on the Air Force Eastern Test Range for Gemini flights 6 and 7 in December 1965
(11). Also, anticipated atmospheric conditions based upon climatological summaries are used
to design aerospace vehicles and to plan tests. In this paper, we shall consid»r the processing of environmental rocket-sounding data for climatological use.
The first rocket probings of the atmosphère in the United States were from the White
Sands Missile Range, New Mexico in 1945-1946, using V-2 and Aerobee rockets (9). In the
beginning, atmospheric parameters were measured by indirect methods. For example, acoustical propagation was used to détermine wind velocities in the late 1940's (6). The development of launchers, vehicles (rockets), sensors, and communications equipment has increased
our capability to measure atmospheric parameters in this "ignosphere." Because of thèse
developments, Kellogg (9) stated in late 1961 that "the décade of the i960's may become known
as the décade in which meteorology began really to include the study of the entire atmosphère.'
Today, winds and températures are the primary parameters measured by rocket-launched
sensors. Winds are determined by ground-based equipment, usually radar, tracking a falling
target. The most used targets hâve a reflective characteristic and may be métal or nylon
chaff ((1) p. 113, (2) p. 254), an eight-foot parachute ((2) p. 251), a 15-foot parachute
((1) p. 92), or an inflated sphère called the ROBIN which means Rocket Balloon Instrument
((2) p. 290). Température is measured by rod thermistors, bead thermistors ((2) pp. 260-266),
or résistance wires (3) and telemetered to the AN/TMQ-5 Recorder where the data are graphed.
Various température sensors and parachutes are combined to make up the several sondes used
for sensing the atmosphère above 25 kilometers. Rockets or guns are used as vehicles for
launching thèse sondes.
Except for some expérimental Systems, pressure, density, and speed-of-sound are computed
rather than measured. The computation methods will be discussed in this paper.
104
PROCESSING UPPER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL DATA FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL USE
Several U.S. agencies - the Air Force, Army, Navy, and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) - were engaged in rocket and missile development, tests, and
opérations in the 1950's. The coopérative and earnest efforts to probe the atmosphère above
25 kilometers resulted in the Meteorological Rocket Network (MRN) being established in
October 1959 (15). Sélection of the MRN stations was dépendent upon the availability of
the test ranges for meteorological rocket opérations ((1) p. 3 ) . The start was slow. The
MRN began with two stations making a total of 18 observations in the Fall of 1959 ((1) p. 3 ) .
A year later, there were nine stations. Each year, the number of meteorological rocket
observations has increased with approximately 2,000 soundings being made by the MRN stations
during 1966 (14). Currently, there are at least 25 stations which contribute data to the
U.S. MRN.
THE USAF ENVIRONMENTAL ROCKET SOUNDING SYSTEM (USAF ERSS)
From the beginning, the U.S. Air Force has been active in MRN opérations. Three of
nine stations in opération during the first complète year were USAF stations (5). By 19621963, the USAF was operating eight of the MRN stations (7). Fifteen of the présent MRN
stations comprise the USAF Environmental Rocket Sounding System (USAF ERSS). (See Figure 1.)
Three of thèse stations - Thule, Greenland; Eglin AFB, Florida; and Vandenberg AFB, California are operated by the USAF. Eniwetok, Marshall Islands is operated by the U.S. Weather
Bureau on an inter-agency contract; however, beginning 1 July 1968, this station will be
operated by the USAF. The Air Force Easnern Test Range (AFETR) stations - Cape Kennedy,
Florida; Antigua Island, British West Indies; Ascension Island, South Atlantic; Ship Sierra;
and Ship Tango - are operated by Pan American World Airways, Inc. (PAA) on Air Force contract. Fort Churchill, Manitoba and Primrose Lake, Alberta are operated in coopération with
the Canadian government; Fort Greely, Alaska and Fort Sherman, Canal Zone in coopération with
the U.S. Army; Point Mugu, California and Barking Sands, Hawaii in coopération with the U.S.
Navy. At thèse coopérative stations, the USAP provides most or ail of the launching vehicles
and pay loads while the other parties provide most or ail of the personnel. One station
(Vandenberg) launches only for rocketsonde tests; three stations (Eglin, Sierra, and Tango)
launch for range support; the remaining eleven stations make scheduled launches for the USAF
ERSS in addition to providing range and test support as necessary.
The USAF ERSS stations hâve contributed considerably to the increase noted previously
in the number of MRN rocketsonde launches. For example, the launches at USAF ERSS sites
increased by approximately 30% from 1966 to 1967 when there were nearly 1100 launches. Also,
there were 131 USAF ERSS launches in January 1968, which exceeded the previously high-launch
month by 10 percent, and 128 in February 1968.
The Arcas rocket is the primary vehicle used by the USAF ERSS stations. The primary
wind sensor is the parachute and the 10-mil bead thermistor is the primary température sensor,
The Arcasonde 1A which has a 15-foot parachute and a 10-mil bead thermistor is the sonde
used most in the USAF ERSS.
Although the same sounding Systems are used generally at ail USAF ERSS sites, the
ground equipment varies considerably among the stations. For example, one site uses a
CPS-9 radar and an AN/GMD-4 rawin set to track the target for Computing winds. This site
détermines the winds and température manually. The time, azimuth angle, élévation angle,
and slant range data are used to manually compute the winds on an A-l Wind Plotting System
(Board) which is the means used generally to compute rawinsonde winds. Température is
determined from the AN/TMQ-5 Recorder trace in the same manner as are rawinsonde températures. Other stations hâve the most sophisticated set of ground equipment which includes
an FPS-16 radar for tracking the target, with the time, azimuth angle, élévation angle, and
slant range data read directly into a computer for determining wind speed and direction.
Thèse stations also détermine the température manually from the AN/TMQ-5 Recorder trace and
read the température-altitude data into the computer for Computing the pressure, density,
and speed-of-sound. The average station has equipment between thèse extrêmes. A radar is
used to track the target whose vertical and horizontal position is plotted periodically on
a Radar Plot Chart for manually Computing wind direction and speed. As you can see on
105
Figure 2, the positions are plotted automatically every second for the first three minutes,
every 10 seconds from three to five minutes, and every 30 seconds thereafter. The position
plots are assigned times every 30 seconds during the first five minutes, then every 60
seconds until the twentieth minute, and every 120 seconds thereafter. Heights are read
from the altitude plots. Winds are determined using a protractor and scale for direction
and speed, respectively. The températures are determined manually from the AN/TMQ-5 Recorder
trace like the portion of the one shown in Figure 3. As those experienced in rawinsonde
opérations know, the contact value is read on the trace and used to détermine the température from the calibration chart. Thermodynamic data are not computed, however. The Rocketsonde Data Chart, (Figure 4 ) , is used by most stations without a computer for plotting timealtitude, wind speed-altitude, wind direction-altitude and température-altitude curves. This
chart is particularly useful in coding altitude, wind, and température data for the ROCOB
télétype message.
RECORDS CHECKING AND QUALITY CONTROL
Since its inception, the USAF Environmental Technical Applications Center has had
numerous responsibilities in the geoastrophysical environment area. On 1 September 1967,
ETAC became the central facility of the USAF Environmental Rocket Sounding System for data
quality control, data réduction, and data analysis. We receive most of the original records
from the USAF ERSS stations for checking and correcting as necessary.
Because of the différent equipment at the various USAF ERSS sites, we do not receive
the same records from ail stations. However, thèse original records are received from most
USAF ERSS sites; a) Meteorological Rocket Data Sheet which contains information relative
to date, time, etc. , of the observation plus spécifications of equipment used, the altitude
layer for which data are obtained, and other information pertinent to the observation;
b) instrument (thermistor and blocking oscillator) calibration chart; c) baseline check
record (including sensitivity check); d) pad check and tube check records (with sensitivity
check); e) AN/TMQ-5 Recorder records; f) Radar Plot Chart (or équivalent); g) Rocketsonde
Data Chart (or équivalent); h) copy of ROCOB coded message; and i) ail conjunctive rawinsonde
observation records. If the site has a computer, the Radar Plot Chart and Rocketsonde Data
Chart may be omitted but print-out copies of the computer input and output are included.
After the records are received, they are checked and corrected, if necessary.
the checking is accomplished in this séquence:
Usually,
a. The records package is checked to détermine if the required records are included.
b. The sounding is classified as a success (i.e., at least 21,000 géométrie meters
of usable data for each meteorological parameter above 30,000 géométrie meters), a partial
success (i.e., at least 15,000 géométrie meters of usable data for at least one meteorological parameter above 30,000 géométrie meters), or failure (i.e., less than 15,000 géométrie
meters of usable data for ail meteorological parameters above 30,000 géométrie meters).
c. The Radar Plot Chart is checked for correetness and completeness of identification
data and for the accuracy of the time entries and wind computations.
d. Identification data are checked for correetness and completeness on the AN/TMQ-5
Recorder record, followed by a check of the sensitivity, baseline, pad, and tube checks.
Température computations are verified by checking the sélection of température levels, the
ordinate values and drift corrections, and the températures which were read from the instrument calibration chart.
e. The Rocketsonde Data Chart is checked for completeness and correetness of the
identification data. The time-altitude plot, wind direction-altitude plot, and wind speedaltitude plot are checked against the Radar Plot Chart data and corrected, if necessary.
The température-altitude plot is checked against the AN/TMQ-5 entries, and corrected, if
necessary.
f. The ROCOB coded message which had been transmitted over the weather data circuits
is checked and corrected, if necessary, for format, accuracy of wind speed, wind direction,
and température values, code figure for thickness of layer through which winds had been
measured, and missing-data entries.
106
g. The number of computational errors and coding errors are entered in a log which
is used to compile an error report.
h. If a sounding is classified as either a partial success or failure, the reason
for this classification is logged after the appropriate checks described above hâve been
completed.
DATA PREPARATION
After the checks and necessary corrections hâve been accomplished, the rocketsonde
wind and température data and the conjunctive rawinsonde data are prepared as inputs for
the IBM 7044 and IBM 1401, respectively.
The first step is to copy the data on worksheets. Each line has the data for one card
with the station number, year, month, day, and GMT of rocket launch on each line. The header
card (Figure 5) had the conjunctive rawinsonde time, rocket type, wind sensor, température
sensor, top and bottom of the layer with questionable and/or missing wind and/or température
data, and a code indicating wind speed units as well as wind and température correction
methods, if any, which were applied. If there is more than one layer with questionable or
missing data, additional header cards are used. In this example, the station number is
10720, year-1967, month-September, day-29, rocket launch time-1612GMT, Raob-three hours
earlier, rocket type-01 (Arcas), wind sensor-02 (15-foot parachute), température sensor Arcasonde 1A (10-mil bead thermistor), QD-03 (missing wind), top of missing wind layer 3642 géométrie decameters, bottom of layer - 3121 géométrie decameters, no questionable or
missing température data, and wind speed are in meters per second.
The référence altitude, référence température, and référence pressure are copied on
the last line of the Header Card worksheet. Thèse référence or thermodynamic-base data are
selected by manually comparing the rocketsonde and rawinsonde température profiles in the
layer of overlap to détermine at what altitude they are the closest. This overlap layer
must be at least 3,000 géométrie meters thick and the températures must be within at least
2.5°C. The pressure is taken from the rawinsonde data. However, the température is taken
from the rocketsonde data because most of the différence between the two températures has
been attributed to time and space différences by Thiele and Beyers (12). We limit the
altitude of the référence data to between 20,000 and 30,000 géométrie meters unless the
référence pressure is 50 or 20 millibars. If the radiosonde which was used had only an
aneroid pressure cell, we sélect the référence data at 50 millibars. However, if we are
sure the hypsometer was operative in the radiosonde, 20 millibars is the pressure of the
selected référence data. In ail cases, the différence between the rocketsonde températures
must not exceed 2.5°C. In our example, the référence height is 23,290 geopotential meters,
the référence température - -58.6°C, and référence pressure - 33.0 millibars.
The Pre-Header Card data are the next to be entered on the worksheet. Thèse entries
indicate the number of header cards which follow, the wind-altitude catégories (bottom or
middle or layer), whether fall times or fall velocities are entered, units of the référence
altitude and wind altitudes (geopotential or géométrie, meters or feet), whether wind
direction and speed (mps or knots) or components are entered, and the units of the fall
velocities, i.e., meters/second, meters/minute, feet/second, or feet/minute. In our example,
there is only one header card, the wind-altitudes for the input are at the base of the layer
(requiring interpolation to obtain the mid-layer altitude) and fall times are given (indicated by the "1" in column 10), requiring computation of fall velocities. The wind-altitudes
are in géométrie meters and the référence height is in geopotential meters, which is indicated by the "1" in column 12. Since fall velocities are not entered but are to be computed,
there is no entry in column 14.
Following completion of the Pre-Header Card, Header Card, and Référence Data on the
worksheet, the identification data, the wind altitudes, wind data, température altitudes,
and température data are copied on the R0C0B Data Card Worksheet (Figure 6) from the
Rocketsonde Data Chart except for Cape Kennedy, Antigua, Ascension, Ship Sierra, and Ship
Tango. The rocketsonde data for thèse Air Force Eastern Test Range (AFETR) stations are
107
provided to us on computer print-out listings which are used as the source for the ROCOB
Data Card entries. In this example, the wind at 56040 meters is missing; this entry is
made because the input wind altitudes are at the base of the layer and we must know the
top of the layer to compute mid-layer altitudes. The highest température altitude is
60,000 meters with the température - 08.8°C. You will note that the wind and température
altitudes are not required to be the same.
The conjunctive rawinsonde data - pressure, altitudes, wind components (mps), relative
humidities, and températures - are copied on the RAOB Input/Output Data worksheet (Figure 7).
The same identification data - station, year, month, day, and time - as used for the rocketsonde observation are entered on each line.
After the data worksheets are completed for several soundings, the data are entered
on punch cards in préparation for the data processing opération.
DATA PROCESSING
The rocketsonde and conjunctive rawinsonde data are processed using five computer
programs, viz., Rocketsonde Computation, Rocketsonde Save, Rocketsonde Merge/Sort, Raob SRL,
and SRL Format programs.
The Rocketsonde Computation program is run on the IBM 7044, Computing approximately
15 soundings per minute. The inputs for this program are the Pre-Header, Header, and ROCOB
Data cards. The data shown on this input print-out (Figure 8) are the same as shown previously on the ROCOB worksheets. The "-0." on the print-out indicates a blank on the worksheet. This program computes fall velocities, mid-layer altitudes for winds (if necessary),
wind components (mps), pressure, density, and speed of sound. In addition to the computations, this program makes 22 checks for possible errors which are listed hère. Any error
which makes computations impossible will cause the program to cease processing that sounding,
in which case a message is printed out stating the case of the "stop." For example, if a
wind altitude or température altitude is out of order, the program would stop processing
the sounding, print out a message stating the reason, and proceed to the next sounding.
Other conditions, such as more than 3,000 meters between température altitudes, which may
or may not be in error are printed out but they are considered good data and the computations completed. At the end of the group of soundings which hâve been processed a statement
is entered indicating the number of soundings read-in and the number processed. The output
from this program (Figure 9) is the Header Card data, the computed values, températurealtitude, température, and messages from the group just mentioned. This output print-out
sample shows various messages, the Header Card data, and the atmospheric parameters. In
making up the sample, only one sounding was read in and one computed, as stated in the last
message.
The input and output print-outs are reviewed manually. Each questionable statement is
checked and the input data are checked against the original records rather than data worksheets. This procédure is used because the possible error could be the resuit of miscopying
the data, mispunching the cards, or an actual condition indicated by the data. If the data
are determined to be correct, the computations are accepted. If the data are in error, the
data work sheets are corrected, new cards are punched and the sounding is reprocessed. Again,
the print outs are reviewed manually to insure that ail corrections hâve been made.
The Rocketsonde Save program is a simple program used on the IBM 1401. This program
uses the rocketsonde computation program output tape as part of its input. The remainder
of the input is on cards each of which contains the station number, year, month, day, and
time of each sounding to be dropped because corrections are needed. The output is on another
tape and contains the correct soundings from the input tape. The print-out lists only those
soundings which were dropped. This print-out is reviewed manually to insure that the proper
soundings hâve been dropped.
108
The IBM 7044 is used to run the Rocketsonde Merge-Sort program. This program uses
the Rocketsonde Save and errorless Rocketsonde Computation tape outputs for input. Usually,
only two or three input tapes are used. This program merges and sorts the computed soundings
by station in séquence from the lowest station number to the highest, by date séquence for
each station, and by time séquence for each date at each station. The output is on magnetic
tape. The print-out indicates the number of soundings merged and sorted or, if the program
is unable to accomplish the merge and sort, it indicates where the error is which stopped
the program.
Since the primary method of inputting original data into a computer is by using punch
cards, the Raob SRL program uses the IBM 1401 to read the cards and write the information on
magnetic tape. Although there are no computations made, the Raob SRL print-out (Figure 10)
is reviewed manually for possible punching and/or copying errors even though the cards were
checked before running the program. This procédure is followed because errors are more
easily recognized on the print-out listing than they are on the cards. Fifty rawinsonde
observations are the most that this program can handle in a single run. This example is the
same data as shown earlier on the Raob Input/Output Data worksheet.
The final IBM 7040 computer program, SRL Format, uses the output tapes from the
Rocketsonde Merge/Sort and Raob SRL programs to place the conjunctive rawinsonde observations with the proper rocketsonde observations. This program dérives its name from the
SRL Form 543 (Figure 11) which has been used by the Schellenger Research Laboratories to
organize the data prior to punching the input cards. This program will stop if it locates
a rawinsonde observation which does not match any rocketsonde observation on the Rocketsonde Merge/Sort output tape or if there is no rawinsonde observation on the Raob SRL output
for a rocketsonde observation which the Rocketsonde Merge/Sort output tape states should
hâve a conjunctive rawinsonde observation.
The SRL Format program has two outputs. One is in card image on magnetic tape.
Figure 12 shows the card-image tape print-out. Although the Header Card and first line
of rocketsonde and rawinsonde data are shown with field headings, this tabulation is
difficult to read. Therefore, the other output is a print-out (Figure 13) which resembles
the SRL Form 543. It is easily read although the data headings are omitted. This is the
same sounding which was shown with data worksheet entries, Rocketsonde Computation computer
program input and output, Raob SRL print-out, and the card-image print-out. The SRL Format
program prints out two messages at the beginning of each observation, viz., "Output for
sounding number XX. This is not the format that is on tape." If there had been no conjunctive rawinsonde observation on the Raob SRL output tape, thèse messages would hâve been
printed following the previously mentioned messages: "No raob sounding found for sta/dtg
10720 67 09 29 1612. SRL Form 543 does include this sounding because no raob time was
reported." At end of a group of observations, another message is printed which gives the
number of rocketsonde observations and rawinsonde observations in the group. Since the
Raob SRL program is limited to 50 rawinsonde observations, each group will hâve no more
than 50 rocketsonde observations with conjunctive rawinsonde observations but may hâve
additional rocketsonde observations without conjunctive rawinsonde observations. This
print-out is also reviewed manually. The purpose of this review is to insure that the program processed the inputs into the format with no omissions and to note any failures which
may hâve occurred.
DATA AND RECORDS DISPOSITION
The SRL Format output in card image on magnetic tape is forwarded to the Schellenger
Research Laboratories, University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, Texas which uses it as the
input for their programs. SRL prépares the tabulated data and profiles for publication as
shown by Figure 14. A copy of the readable print-out is forwarded with the card-image tape
which permits the Schellenger staff to détermine what data are on the tape. Also, they can
compare the tabular print-out from their computer program with our print-out.
109
We retain the original records until the data are published. A copy of the SRL
Format print-out for each rocketsonde observation which we process is placed with the
original records for archiving. The original records are forwarded to our Data Processing
Division, Asheville, North Carolina for disposition in accordance with existing USAF policy
and directives pertaining to records disposition. Also, we retain a file copy of the Rocketsonde computation input-output print-outs, Raob SRL print-out, and SRL Format print-out as
well as the punch cards and tapes which were used to produce the SRL Format outputs.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
We are always looking for ways, means, methods, and techniques to imprive our product
and accomplish the task with a minimum of manual effort.
We hâve a revised Raob SRL computer program for the IBM 7044 ready for use now. It
has been checked out and is operational. This program computes wind components from an
input of wind direction and speed. Also, it converts geopotential heights to géométrie
heights, feet to meters, and vice versa. This program éliminâtes the manual computation
of wind components from the polar winds, and permits the rawinsonde data to be input at both
géométrie and geopotential altitudes in the same sounding.
We are preparing a Raob Computation computer program for the IBM 7044. This program
will use baseline-check data, station élévation, time, pressure, temperature-ordinate value,
relative humidity-ordinate value, azimuth angle and élévation angle as inputs. It will
compute the température, relative humidity, thickness between pressures, wind direction,
and wind speed. The output will be pressure, altitude, température, relative humidity,
wind direction, and wind speed. We will use this program to check the rawinsonde observations conjunctive to the rocketsonde observations.
Since we receive the rocketsonde data and conjunctive rawinsonde data for Cape Kennedy,
Antigua, Ascension, Ship Sierra, and Ship Tango on magnetic tape and print-out, we are preparing a new IBM 1401 computer program to use the magnetic tapes for thèse stations as the
inputs forour Rocketsonde Computation and Raob SRL computer programs. We are preparing thèse
programs so that corrections and changes can be made in our tape inputs by using cards.
We hâve a revised Rocketsonde Computation computer program under préparation. This
program will hâve several features. There will be additional checks included. Either the
wind-altitudes or température- altitudes or both may be input in either descending order
or ascending order. If possible, more efficient computational procédures will be utilized.
We are already giving much thought to a revised computer program to format the final
output into the new format which will be used by the cooperating U.S. agencies beginning
with the 1 January 1969 upper atmospheric data. We plan to hâve this computer program prepared, tested, and completely operational before the end of 1968.
SUMMARY
There are at least 25 stations which contribute data to the U.S. MRN and 15 of thèse
make up the USAF ERSS. Original rocketsonde records are forwarded to USAF ETAC where they
are checked manually. Altitude, time, wind, and température data are punched on cards for
input into an IBM 7044. Fall velocities, wind components, pressures, densities, and speeds
of sound are computed and questionable data indicated. An IBM computer program is used to
drop soundings which need correcting and to copy those which are correct on another tape.
Another IBM 1401 computer program, soon to be replaced by a 7044 computer program, is used
to write the raob data onto magnetic tape. A 7044 computer program arranges the rocket
soundings in chronological order by station and another 7044 program formats the data for
publication in the World Data Center A Data Report, Meteorological Network Firings.
110
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to express my appréciation to Captain James R. Norton, Chief, Computer
Opérations Branch, Automation Division, who prépares the computer programs used in processing rocketsonde data at ETAC.
REFERENCES
(1) Anon: "Initiation of the Meteorological Rocket Network, Revised August 1961," IRIG
Document 105-60, Inter-Range Instrumentation Group, Range Commanders' Council, White
Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, August 1961.
(2) Anon: "The Meteorological Rocket Network," IRIG Document 111-64, Inter-Range Instrumentation Group, Range Commander's Council, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico,
February 1965.
(3) Anon; Meteorological Rocket Network Firings - Data Report, World Data Center A, National
Weather Records Center, Environmental Data Service, ESSA, Asheville, North Carolina,
28801, Vol. IV, No. 4, April 1967.
(4) Anon: Space Handbook for Aerospace Opérations Course, Warfare Systems School, Air
University, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama, July 1965.
(5) Barr, W.C.,
Lowenthall,
An Analysis
Geophysical
(6)
Batten, E.S., Cole, A.E., Holmes, D., Henry, R.M., Keegan, T.J., Lea, D.A.,
M.J., Rapp, R.R., and Teweles, S.: "The Meteorological Rocket Network of the First Year in Opération" Journal of Geophysical Research, American
Union, Vol. 66, No. 9, September 1961, pp. 2821-2842.
Crary, A.P.: "Investigation of Stratospheric Winds and Température from Acoustical
Propagation Studies," Geophysical Research Papers No. 5, Air Force Cambridge Research
Laboratories, June 1950.
(7) Giraytys, J., and Rippy, H.R.: "The USAF Meteorological Rocket Sounding Network:
Présent and Future," Bulletin of the AMS, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 45,
No. 7, July 1964, pp. 382-387.
(8) Kantor, A.J.: "Wind Climatology of Boost Glide Altitudes," in Proceedings of the
National Symposium on Winds for Aerospace Vehicle Design, Volume II (Air Force Surveys
in Geophysics No. 140 (AFCRL 62-273 (II)), Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories,
March 1962, pp. 215-224.
(9) Kellogg, W.W,: "Meteorological Rockets Step Upward," Bulletin of the AMS, American
Meteorological Society, Vol. 43, No. 4, April 1962, pp. 129-130.
(10) Nordberg, W., and Smith, W.: "Rocket Measurements of the Structure of the Upper Stratosphère and Mésosphère," in Publications of GSFC, 1963: I. Space Sciences, NASA, Goddard
Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, 1963, pp. 1445-1454.
(11) Pitts, D.E., and Carter, P.C.: "High-Altitude Atmospheric Measurements for the Reentries of Gemini 6 and Gemini 7," TMX-58003, NASA, Manned Spacecraft Center, Houston,
Texas, November 1966.
(12) Thiele, O.W., and Beyers, N.J.: "Comparison of Rocketsonde and Radiosonde Températures
and a Vérification of Computed Rocketsonde Pressure and Density," ECOM 5048, Atmospheric
Sciences Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico, April 1966.
(13) Vaughan, W.W.: "Wind Profiles at Staging Altitudes (35 Km to 80 Km)," in Proceedings
of the National Symposium on Winds for Aerospace Vehicle Design, Volume II (Air Force
Surveys in Geophysics No. 140 (AFCRL 62-273 (II)), Air Force Cambridge Research
Laboratories, March, 1962, pp. 151-163.
111
(14) Webb, W.L., Giraytys, J., Tolefson, H.B., Forsberg, R.C., Vick, R.I., Daniel, O.H.,
and Tucker, L.R.: "Meteorological Rocket Network Probing of the Stratosphère and
Lower Mesophere," Bulletin of the AMS, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 47,
No. 10, October 1966, pp. 788-799.
(15) Webb, W.L., Hubert, W.E., Miller, R.L., and Spurling, J.F.: "The First Meteorological
Rocket Network," Bulletin of the AMS, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 42,
No. 7, July 1961, pp. 482-494.
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H9
Ni
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ROCKETSONDE COMPUTATION-OUTPUT
PUTIPUT
FRTN ROCKETSUNDE C'IMPUT AT l ON
HIND S H I F T
BETHEEN 4 9 ' 2 0 .
AND 5 2 0 4 5 .
FALL V F L G C I T 1 E S BETHEEN OUTPUT
HIND S H I F T
BETHEEN 4 7 J 1 5 .
ALTITUDES
AND 4 9 8 J G .
FAUL V F L O C I T T E S BfTHEFN OUTPUT
HtND S H I F T
BETHEEN 3 1 7 5 5 .
FQ
OF 5 : 0 4 5 .
DOUBTFUL.
20.
DOUBTFUL.
AND 4 9 6 7 0 .
CHANGED MORE THEN
10.
MPS AND ARE OUESTIONABLE.
ASSUHED 3 0 0 0
AND 4 7 1 2 5 .
CHANGED MORE THFN
10.
HPS AND ARE OUESTIONABLE.
ASSUMED GOOD DATA.
ASSUMED GOOD DATA
MPS BETHFEN OUTPUT ALTITUDES
BETHEEN OuT»UT ALTITUDES OF 3 7 3 0 5 .
AND 3 1 7 5 5 .
OF 3 7 3 0 5 .
AND 3 1 7 5 5 .
CHANGED MORE THEN
BETHEEN 2 2 1 1 0 .
ANU 2 . 2 9 0 5 .
03UBTFUL.
ASSUMED GOOD DATA
HIND SHIFT
BETHEEN 7 1 3 3 5 .
ANO 2 7 1 1 0 .
DOUBTFUL.
ASSUMED GOUO DATA
5.
METFRS.
ASSUMEiQ GOOO OATA.
MPS AND ARE OUF<ST IONABLE.
ASSUMED GOOD OATA.
A TiEMPFRATURE CHANGE OF
9.
OEG 0K M'JRC OCCURS BETHEEN
42520.
METERS ANO
40110.
METERS.
ASSUHED GOOD DATA
A TEMPERATURE CHANGE OF
9.
DEG OR MDRE OCCURS BETHEEN
40110.
METERS ANO
31190.
METERS.
ASSUHED GOOD OATA
DIFFERENCE
BETHELM
59120.0
AND
56050.0
I S GREATEK THAN 3 KM.
ASSUMED GOOD OATA.
TEMP ALT DIFFERENCE
BETHEEN
48800.0
AND
45450.0
IS
ASSUMED GOflD OATA.
•720 67
9 ?9 1612
HIND ALT
FAL VEL
93.000
80.333
6B.000
55.833
48.833
40.167
32.000
29.=03
18.167
17.167
15.333
12.667
13.667
10.167
11.667
9.667
8.917
7.083
6.417
6.833
6.083
5.333
5.083
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
54645.000
52045.000
49P70.000
47125.000
43985.000
41315.000
39150.000
37305.000
31755.000
30695.000
29720.000
2 3830.000
28090.000
27375.000
26720.000
25790.000
24675.000
23715.000
22905.000
22;3.O.0O0
21335-000
20650.000
20025.000
-0.000
-o.ooo
END OF
INP1IT
-o.ooc
-0.000
-0.000
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-0.000
-0.000
DATA.
-3
2 17 -0 -n
;
->,.150
-i.OOO
14.095
3.374
..972
-l.fllS
-:.209
-•:.303
0.000
-;.659
--.475
-0.749
-•.036
—..144
-1C.093
;.06?
-:.09i
-"•..84B
C.000
9.192
-•..017
-'.000
C.000
-0.000
-c.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
3 364? n * i
u
\l
-5.601
0.000
5.130
14.&16
19.766
3. 564
15.178
3.914
-2<!.000
-34.5ÛR
-34.569
-29.C31
-£8.359
-33.747
-i9.?ll
-21.786
-19.o90
-8.746
-7.000
-9.197
-12.3o4
0.000
-2.000
-0.000
-O.COO
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
1 <UNS READ IN
DATA.
ASSUMED GOOO OATA
HIND SHIFT
TEHP ALT
g
ASSUMED GOOD DATA
ALTITUDES OF 4 9 B 2 0 .
AND 3 7 3 0 5 .
HIND SPEEO CHANGER MORE Tf.AS
FAUL V F L O C I T I E S
ntlUBTFUL.
TfrMP ALT
60000.000
59)20.000
56050.000
53'SO.OOO
50840.000
4SR00.000
45450.000
42520.000
40110.000
38190.000
36420.000
35120.000
33750.000
32310.000
31210.000
30180.000
29J.60.000
28500.OOO
27680.000
27070.000
26370.000
25210.000
24140.000
23419.851
23790.000
22520.000
21700.000
20970.OOU
20330.000
19720.000
GREATER
-0
-0
TEHP
THAN 3 KM.
1
PRESSURE
OENSITY
0.248
0.278
0.409
0.532
0.787
1.016
1.537
2.210
3.004
3.877
4.932
5.691
7.132
8.751
10.736
11.861
13.552
15.158
17.135
18.7B7
20.695
24.956
29.468
33.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
0.327
0.366
0.53S
0.75B
1.023
1.314
1.959
2.862
4.039
5.454
6.929
8.371
10.446
12.872
15.067
17.572
20.451
23.727
26.571
29.329
32.856
39.547
47.581
53.582
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-fl.BOO
-9.200
-8.000
-5.600
-5.000
-4.000
0.200
-4.100
-14.000
-2*.500
-25.200
-28.000
-35.300
-36.300
-36.400
-38.000
-42.300
-45.800
-48.500
-50.000
-51.600
-53.300
-57.400
-58.600
-5R.900
-59.800
-61.000
-67.800
-63.400
-63.700
1 SJUNOINGS COMPUTEO.
SOS
ICALT
326.061
325.814
326.554
32R.079
328.396
329.ooa
331.565
32B.947
322.838
315.594
315.765
313.997
309.287
308.636
308.571
307.527
304.70?
302.383
300.583
299.577
29B.502
297.354
294.569
293.746
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0.000
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-r>
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
102
IED
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
LAR
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
RAOB SRL-OUTPUT
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
10720
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
1612 0176
1612 0210
1612 0277
1612 0446
1612 0740
1612 1240
1612 2060
1612 3140
1612 4860
1612 7100
161210051
1612 0500
1612 1000
1612 5000
1612 7000
2743
2621
2439
2139
1829
1524
1219
0914
0610
0305
0005
2068
1652
0590
0319
-»006
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-002
+003
-t004
+003
+001
+002
+005
-001
000
-001
^002
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-019
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-003
-004
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000
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24
23
64
76
69
66
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METEOROLOGICAL
YR
1
2
3
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3
1
MO
7
3
ROCKET SOUNDING DATA
„,
PA0E
S
DATE
REPORTING
POINT CODE
RKT
TIME
-RAOB- TYPE
CODE
TIME 121
-ROCKETOAY
9 10
II 12
13 14 13
+
WS
TS
RP
IS 17 10 19 20 21 22 23 2< 23
«HT
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IJ
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2*27
n ti
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3 0 3 1 52 33 34 33 33 37
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16 17 18 19
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23 24 25
WINOS
-EAST
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COMPOSITION
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ROCKET W1N0S
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5CHELLENGER
RESEARCH
LABS
FORM
513
1
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•
SRL FORMAT-OUTPUT
CARD IMAGE
107206709291612-3010212
0336*23121
FORT SHERMAN, CANAL ZONE
1072067092916120935*65-02-066000-380024800327326
017627*3-06-37
1
M281
1072067092916120805205-06C005912-92 00:7 800366326
02102621-03-30
M721
10720670929161 2068*98201*005 5605- 9030*0900538327
02772*39-02-19
H9BI
107206709291612056*713003C155325-=60058200758328
0**62139003-09
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1072067092 916120*9*399003 C19 508*-5C007870102332.8
07*01829-0*-06
0961
1072067092916120*0*132-02C0**380-*0010160131*329
12*0152*003-07
P281
1072067092916120323915-05C15*5*50020153701959332
20601219001-11
N9*l
1072067092916120303731-06C0**252-*10221002862329
31*0091*002-032*K901
1072067092916120183176000-32*011J*00200*0*039323
*8600610005-0*23-831
1072067092916120173070-0*-353919<ri 0387705*5*316
710 00305-01-0*6*0821
107206709291612015297*-05-3536*2K520*93206929316
-0510005000000762691
1072067092916L20132888-07-793512K90053910837131*
05002068-01-12
N901
10720670929161201*2809-05-293375L530713210**6309
10001652-02005
P391
1072067092916120102738-0*-3*3 231L630675112872309
5 0000590005-0*69-691
1072067092916120122672-10-793121L6*10?3615062309
7 0000319-01-0*660781
1072067092916120102579003-72301BL801196117572308
1
1072067092916120092*68-02-202926M231355220*51305
1
1072067092916120072372-05-092850M=8^515923227302
1
1072067092916120062 291000-072768M851713526571301
1
1072067092916120072211009-09?707N001878729329300
1
107206709291612006213*-0*-122637NJ62089532956299
1
1072067092916120052065-02C002 521N332*958395*7297
1
1072067092916120052003000-072*1*N7*29*68*7591295
1
107206709291612
2 3*2N8&33000535 822 9*
1
107206709291612
2329N89
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107206709291612
2257N98
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107206709291612
2'. 70010
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107206709291612
2097028
1
107206709291612
203303*
1
107206709291612
1972037
1
999999 9999 9999 9999999 99 99^)999 99999 9 999999999 99 999 ^999 9999999999 99999999999999999
REPORTINS POINT
PORT SRSmUM, CANAL ZONE
ROCKETSONDE DATA
/S
RAWINSONOE DATA
017627*3-06-37
FIGURE 12
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FIGURE 14
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125
126
ON DATA PROCESSING MECHANIZATION FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REGIME STUDY
N. K. Kljukin
SRI of Aeroclimatology of Hydrometeorological
Service of the USSR
For the last ten years the Hydrometeorological Service of the U.S.S.R. carried out
the data processing by machine methods for the study of régional and global regularities
of hydrometeorological régime. In the process of this work a number of référence materials
and investigations on the basis of machine methods over 200 millions of collected punched
cards were published. At présent the annual increase of information exceeds 40 millions of
punched cards.
This work showed that it is possible to reach the high efficiency of mechanization
used for processing the results of hydrometeorological observations only by the way of
machine methods from the earliest stages of technological process for data processing.
The nonfulfillment of this condition results in the sharp increase of time waste and the
decrease of économie showings.
The following block-diagram (fig. 1) présents the technological chain of préparation,
collection, data processing control, storage and the distribution of hydrometeorological
information. The demands of mechanization are also taken into account.
According to this diagram ail the data processing (with the exception of some nonlabor-consuming opérations used for initial treatment relating to the type of introducing
corrections to the readings, humidity calculations at température of dry and wet thermometers
and others which at the observation stations without automatic equipment are expédient to
perform by hand) are brought about at the centers equipped with highly productive electronia
computers (EC). At the same time the material préparation for treating in on the EC is
dispersed at the observation points from where data is given either by impulses (for the
transmission by télécommunication and for the input to the EC) or on the intermediate technical média. It créâtes prerequisites for time waste reducing and cost eut necessary for
data processing and its delivery to the users. Let us consider the methods of realization
used for the stages of proposed technological process.
I.
At an observation point.
With the complète automation of hydrometeorological network the following work régimes
are possible:
the transmission of information from the sensors of the completely automatized
station (observation means) to the data processing center by télécommunication.
automatic information placing on the technical médium which is periodically
removed and given (sent) from the observation points to the data processing center. With
the second régime a perforated paper tape or magnetic média are the most reliable and
convenient.
As the part of nonautomatized or incomplète automatized observation means in the common
System or observations will be significant within the next few years and the volume of information received from thèse means is great, it is necessary for the data processing automatization to place information on the technical média.
In this case the two principle schemes are possible:
at the observation point only the ordinary record is made in the logs, tables and
the data is placed on the technical média at the data processing centers (punching from tables,
logs and so on),
127
the data is placed on the technical médium at an observation point.
The expérience of many years connected with the data record on the technical média
(in particular on a 80-column punched card) at the centers of data processing testifies to
significant delays of data processing in spite of the skillful personnel which is used for
punching process. As many opérations for data processing hâve to be performed by hand the
difficulties of the whole process are seen to increase.
Therefore it was undertaken the élaboration of methods designated for recording data
on the technical média by the personnel performing observations just at the observation
points.
The experiments showed that for nonautomatized observation giving relatively small
volumes of information but carried out at many points it is expédient to use punched cards
with graphite marks. In particular it is shown the high efficiency of using a given technical médium for the results of hydrological observations.
A standard 80-column punched card printed for graphite marks by double-sided usage
can place 54 décimal digits. To fill a card an observer needs no equipment (at a station,
at a post, on an expédition and so on).
The delivery of punched cards to the station or to the center of data processing does
not reduce their quality significantly. The information reading from punched cards with
simultaneous automatical control and placing punches on the same punched card in any code
and doubling identification data from a card layout are reliably performed by a sériai produced reading perforator (IlC-80) at a speed of 100 punched cards per minute by punching
27 columns.
The information input from the mentioned punched cards is possible for any EC equipped
with the arrangement for reading punched cards.
The use of punched cards with graphite marks for hydrometeorological observations
almost entirely excludes manual labor (except some simple and nonlabor-consuming opérations
of the initial treatment and placing graphite marks on punched cards) and accélérâtes the
treatment in particular the calculation of water expenditure (as compared with hand work)
240 times as much.
At the stations, observation points, vessels and so on where during the observation
process one gets considérable information volumes(more than 100-200 décimal digits for a
term) it is expédient to use punch-tape-machine with the help of which the results of
observations are placed on a perforated paper tape.
At the points where the part of observations is automatized the perforated tape préparation is carried out according to two régimes; the first régime is characterized by
mechanical perforation from the sensors of automatized observation means and the second by
the manual performation of results received from nonautomatized observations.
The information placed on the perforated tape is transmitted to the center of data
processing either by the communication through the transmitter or by sending a perforated
tape. Ail the following opérations of data processing are performed on the EC.
This method gives the possibility to use the 20 times more compact technical médium
as compared with a punched card. If an observer is skillful enough he places the data on
a perforated tape more rapidly than on a card with graphite marks. The usage of the intermediate reading and punch-arrangement (IlC-80) is excluded and as a resuit of it one of the
possible sources of errors is also eliminated.
However, there appears the necessity to equip the observation points with relatively
expensive electromechanical punch tape machines and the necessity in exploitation, repairs
and préventive inspection of thèse arrangements.
128
The simple rellable mechanical punch-tape-machine giving the possibility of control
and correcting records is required for the wide-spread introduction of the method.
The other ways of placing the initial data on the technical média are possible as
well. For instance, the record on the standard blank with a code field, the use of magnetic records and others, but the practical value of thèse methods for the hydrometeorological expérience is not completely found out.
II.
At the data processing center.
The data input to the EC, decoding, completing and the initial data processing do not
présent principal difficulties, though they require thorough attention and the well made up
program. As to the realization of data processing by machine methods the most complicated
operating is the control of information.
The error statistics in observations (with no regard to errors in making up tables,
calculations and similar opérations from which the observers must be free with introducing
machine methods of data processing) shows that at the prevailing part of station network
with the spécial service personnel performing observations, treatment, as well as some
stages of control the quantity of erroneous observations or their records is extremely
insignificant (in the order of thousandth and tenth 7») and only at the part of stations
where the personnel is not skillful enough the quantity of errors reaches 0.5 - 1.5%
(table I ) .
Table I
The Probability of Errors (7.)
in the Main Meteorological Observations
Stations
Kinds of Errors
' excellent
J
good
!
I
I
satisfactory
_
1.
Errors in standard device measurement
0.0
0.003
0.02 - 0.51
2.
Errors in standard visual observations
0.02
0.11
0.33-0.54
The quantity of errors at "unqualified" stations is much more.
observations as an example it makes up about 107».
In the marine meteorological
It is necessary to say that the essential part of errors is committed by using visual
observations of atmospheric phenomena, visibility, cloudiness and only about 5% errors which
relate to the instrumental observations.
As even at the présence of relatively small quantity of errors some of them can begin
in the extrêmes rarely observed, but considerably important weather phenomena and can distort
the final results, so the machine control is to be carried out.
However the errors statistics shows that there is no necessity to use too complicated,
expensive and labor-consuming Systems of control. It is possible to use relatively simple
schemes of machine control with the help of which natural climatic and weather factors as
well as physiographical features of the observed région are taken into account.
Under the considération of this problem the following types of control may be selected:
ON DATA PROCESSING MECHANIZATION FOR HYEROMETEOROLOGICAL REGIME STUDY
1.
Control of identification data.
2.
Control on the basis of interrelation of hydrometeorological éléments (except
alogisms i.e. combinations which cannot exist).
3.
Control on the basis of interrelation of temporal séries, (twenty-four-hours'
run etc.)
4.
Control on the basis of spatial (horizontal and vertical) interrelations.
5.
Control on the basis of conformity of observed values with climatic limits.
129
When thèse methods of machine control are worked out by the offices of the Hydrometeorological Service of the USSR ail thèse ways are used.
As far as one can both find errors and alogisms in the combinations of éléments and
their values when the scheme of machine control is sufficiently reliable in ail probability
there is no necessity in the terminological division of control types into technical and
critical (logical) as it was done when the manual control was used. The gênerai term:
"machine (automatical) control of data" is sufficient.
However, it is expédient to differ the control capable to find either occasional
errors in separate observations or summarized results for a décade, a month etc. and the
control capable to find chiefly systematic errors due to the device fault.
Occasional errors may be found on the basis of the data observation analysis for
one or some given terms of the separate point taking into account the principles of alogism
exception, the conformity of climatic limits and the interrelation of temporal séries. To
reveal occasional errors the interrelations of spatial séries may be used. The expérimental
programs of control testify that occasional errors are rather well revealed with the help
of the first three principles.
Systematic errors in particular not so rough to hâve erroneous values out of climatic
limits are revealed by means of the principle of spatial interrelations.
So the entire System of machine control is to embrace the methods of revealing not
only occasional but also systematic errors though at the beginning and in essence of technological chain of control there are the methods of revealing errors both in standard observations and identification data.
The results obtained from the experiments of the control methods used for marine
meteorological observations showed that the EC reveals much more errors as compared with
the manual control with the use of relatively simple and non-labor-consuming machine program made up on the basis of alogism exception and coincidence of data with climatic limits.
To improve the methods in future it is planned to increase a number of control criteria
of identification data, to decrease the values defining climatic limits according to quasihomogeneous squares of the World Océan, to improve algorisms with the aim of avoiding alogisms,
Ail this will undoubtedly contribute to the increase of control efficiency.
With some modification it is possible to apply the methods to the control of information from the continental stations. The used principles permitting to operate with the
data of the point taken separately are especially valueable for the control carried out at
the stations situated in the mountainous régions and in the other complication conditions.
It is évident that new difficulties connected with the complicated and sharply
changeable meteorological situation in continental conditions will arise.
130
On the other hand stationary points especially with the considérable number of observation terms (8-24 per twenty-four hours) give good chances to use for the control of many
éléments not only the principles of the coïncidence with climatic limits and the alogism
exception but also the principle of temporal séries1 dependence (in particular the diurnal
run).
The machine control Introduction of data for separate terms is expédient to realize
simultaneously with that of proposed technological data processing by machine methods
(fig. 1) in two aspects:
a) for the current information with its control taken into account, the usage for
operative forecasting purposes, the output from the EC to the technical médium and for the
hydrometeorological régime investigation.
b) for the information on hydrometeorological régime transmitting from the observation point on the technical médium.
The introduction of machine control at the stations with the old technology of data
processing (where some control stages are simultaneously carried by hand) and data punching
at the center is much less effective.
III.
Technical média.
For the solution of the problem dealt with the data processing by machine methods,
storage and distribution of data for hydrometeorological régime the right choice of the
technical média is of décisive importance: compact, cheap, steadfast in storage, permitting
to bring about the high reliability (about 10 - 6) of record, reading, selecting, rewriting
digital (binary) information with the relatively simple, rapid and cheap technological
process of recording.
The modem mass technical médium - the punched card does not meet many demands. A lot
of difficulties arise with the introduction of the method for the microfilming of punched
cards. The new type of the média which is being spread at présent - magnetic tape - meets
many demands but it is not sufficiently steady during long storage.
Therefore the thought of many investigators and engineers is turned to the usage of
photo-sensitive layers and steady média of binary information meeting necessary demands.
The fulfilled experiments will show advisable technical solutions of this important
problem. For the économie création of data-pack on the technical média the usage of coded
information is of great value. Therefore the reconstruction of modem hydrometeorological
codes is to be carried out with regard to the demands of machine data processing for hydrometeorological régime study and long information storage.
The use of information média in analogue form and still available for machine processing présents considérable interest. In particular the machine processing of data performed
by recorders, isolines on charts and semitone image (type of cloud cover, ice, etc.) pennits
to combine a very compact information in the analogue form with the advantages taken from
the methods of digit data processing.
With regard to the character of separate kinds of records in the analogue form (tape
of recorder of definite désignation, charts of definite form and so on) the convenience of
microfilm as a technical médium for the input to the EC, storage and exchange of graphie
information is clearly seen.
Conclusion
The data processing by machine methods for the hydrometeorological régime is to be
realized by means of highly productive electronic computers with the widely branched System
131
of the outer arrangements with the obligatory data-preparing for the input to the EC at
the observation point. It permits to avoid labor-consuming manual opération used for the
data processing in technological process.
Machine data control for revealing occasional and systematlc errors is necessary, but
its algorisms hâve not to be too complicated and labor-consuming, because the most substantial errors are revealed with the help of relatively simple control algorisms, and insignificant ones do not influence on the final resuit.
The development of progressive methods of data processing, exchange, storage and the
distribution of data is delayed at the présent due to the lack of technical média available
for the mass usage ay hydrometeorological services meeting ail the demands which are
associated with large volumes of information for the hydrometeorological régime, with the
necessity of its constant storage, multiple usage in the initial non-distort appearance
after the application of différent opérations. Therefore at the national services as well
as in the plans of the World Meteorological Organization particular attention must be
given to the élaboration of new technical média, especially for the data In binary form,
unification of média and methods of placing information on them.
132
BLOCK DIAGRAM OF MACHINE DATA PROCESSING FOR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL REGIME
I.
a)
At the observation point
with automatized equipment
b)
Initial treatment of some data before placing it on the technical médium.
Placing digital data on the intermediate
médium with the help of automatical means
(for automatized kinds of observations)
or by an observer.
Placing data on the technical médium in the
analogue form (by recorders).
Output of impulses from sensors
for sending information to the
data processing center by télécommunication or for placing it
on the intermediate technical
médium.
Transmission of
initial data to
the data processing
center by télécommunication.
with non-automatized or semi-automatized
equipment
Sending initial
data on the technical
médium to the dataprocessing center.
II.
Sending
initial data on the technical
média or transmission of it to
the data processing center by
télécommunication.
At the data processing center
Input of data transmitting by télécommunication or on the technical média to the
electronic computer (EC); decoding, control, initial data processing and
data completing.
Output of corrected initial data on the
compact and sufficiently steady technical
médium (microfilm, etc) for exchange,
storage, statistic treatment and giving
information.
Output of the results of initial
data processing on print,
diagrams, charts.
Analysis and summary of data processing results; statistic
treatment, making up référence materials.
Publication, multiplication, copying, microcopying.
Delivery of the initial and treated infornation to the users and to the other centers according to the schemes of distriaution and demands.
Scientific - technical
Archiving
Fig. 1
information.
WMO TECHNICAL NOTES
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
u{
13
17
18
20
21
24
25
26
28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 32
No. 33
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
No.
The forecasting from weather data of potato blight and other plant diseases and pests. P. M. Austin Bourke.
The standardization of the measurement of evaporation as a climatic factor. G. W. Robertson.
Artificial control of clouds and hydrometeors. L. Dufour - Fergtison Hall - F. H. Ludlam - E. J. Smith.
Notes on the problème of cargo ventilation. W. F . McDonald (reprinted 1968).
Aviation aspects of mountain waves. M. A. Alaka (reprinted 1967).
The climatological investigation of soil température. Milton L. Blanc.
Measurement of evaporation, humidity in the biosphère and soil moisture. N. E . Rider.
Turbulent diffusion in the atmosphère. C. H. B. Priestley - R. A. McCormick - F . Pasquill.
Design of hydrological networks. Max A. Kohler (reprinted 1967).
Techniques for surveying surface-water resources. Ray K. Linsley (reprinted 1967).
Seasonal peculiarities of the température and atmospheric circulation régimes in the Arctic and Antarctic.
Professor H. P . Pogosjan.
Upper-air network requirements for numerical weather prédiction. A. Eliassen - J. S. Sawyer - J. Smagorinsky.
Rapport préliminaire du Groupe de travail de la Commission de météorologie synoptique sur les réseaux. J. Bessemoulin, président - H. M. De Jong - W. J. A. Kuipers - 0 . Lonnqvist - A. Megenine - R. Pône - P. D. Thompson
- J. D. Torrance.
Meteorological service for aircraft employed in agriculture and forestry. P . M. Austin Bourke — H. T. Ashton M. A. Huberman - 0 . B. Lean - W. J. Maan - A. H. Nagle (reprinted 1969).
Meteorological aspects of the peaceful uses of atomic energy. Part I - Meteorological aspects of the safety and
location of reactor plants. P. J. Meade (reprinted 1968).
The airflow over mountains. P. Queney - G. A. Corby - N. Gerbier - H. Koschmieder - J. Zierep (reprinted 1967).
Techniques d'analyse et de prévision des champs de vent et de température à haute altitude (édition française).
Ozone observations and their meteorological applications. H. Taba.
Aviation bail problem. Donald S. Foster.
Turbulence in clear air and in cloud. Joseph Clodman.
Ice formation on aircraft. R. F . Jones (reprinted 1968).
Occurrence and forecasting of Cirrostratus clouds. Herbert S. Appleman.
| Climatic aspects of the possible establishment of the Japanese beetle in Europe. P. Austin Bourke (reprinted 1968).
| Forecasting for forest fire services. J. A. Turner - J. W. Lillywhite - Z. Pieélak.
Meteorological factors influencing the transport and removal of radioactive débris. Edited by Dr. W. Bleeker.
Numerical methods of weather analysis and forecasting. B. Bolin - E. M. Dobrishman - K. Hinkelmann K. Knighting — P. D. Thompson (reprinted 1969).
Performance requirements of aerological instruments. J. S. Sawyer.
Methods of forecasting the state of sea on the basis of meteorological data. J. J. Schule - K. Terada - H. Walden
- G. Verploegh.
Précipitation measurcments at sea. Review of the présent state of the problem, prepared by a working group
of the Commission for Maritime Meteorology.
The présent status of long-range forecasting in the world. J. M. Craddock - H. Flohn - J. Namias.
Réduction and use of data obtained by TIROS meteorological satellites. (Prepared by the National Weather
Satellite Center of the U.S. Weather Bureau).
The problem of the professional training of meteorological personnel of ail grades in the less-developed countries.
J. Van Mieghem (reprinted 1967).
Le problème de la formation professionnelle du personnel météorologique de tout grade dans les pays insuffisamment développés. J. Van Mieghem.
Protection against frost damage. M. L. Blanc - H. Geslin - I. A. Holzberg - B. Mason.
Automatic weather stations. H. Treussart - C. A. Keltering - M. Sanuki - S. P. Venkiteshwaran - A. Muni.
Stations météorologiques automatiques. H. Treussart - C. A. Kettering - M. Sanuki - S. P . Venkiteshwaran A. Mani.
The effect of weather and climate upon the keeping quality of fruit.
Meteorology and the migration of Désert Locuste. R. C. Rainey.
The influence of weather conditions on the occurrence of applc scab. J. J. Post - C. C. AUison - H. Burckhardt
- T. F . Prcece.
A study of agroclimatology in semi-arid and arid zones of the Near East. G. Perrin de Brichambaut and C. C.
Wallén' (reprinted 1968).
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No. 46
No. 47
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No. 49
No. 50
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
No. 56
Note: Publications in the "Technical Note" séries not appearing in this list are out of print, and will not be reprinted.
No. 56
No.
No.
No.
No.
58
59
60
61
No. 62
No. 63
No. 64
No. 65
No. 66
No. 67
Une étude d'agroclimatologie dans les zones arides et semi-arides du Proche-Orient. G. Perrin de Brichambaut
et C. C. Wallén.
Tidal phenomena in the upper atmosphère. B. Haurwitz.
Windbreaks and shelterbelts. J. van Eimern - R. Karschon - L. A. Razumova - G. W. Robertson.
Meteorological soundings in the upper atmosphère. W. W. Kellogg.
Note on the standardization of pressure réduction methods in the international network of synoptic stations.
M. SchUepp - F. W. Burnett - K. N. Rao - A. Rouaud.
Problems of tropical meteorology. M. A. Alaka.
Sites for wind-power installations. B. Davidson - N. Gerbier - S. D. Papagianakis - P. J. Rijkoort.
High-level forecasting for turbine-engined aircraft opérations over Africa and the Middle East. Proceedings of
the Joint ICAO/WMO Seminar, Cairo-Nicosia, 1961.
A survey of human biometeorology. Edited by Frederick Sargent, II, and Solco W. Tromp.
WMO-IUGG symposium on research and development aspects of long-range forecasting. Boulder, Colorado, 1964.
The présent situation with regard to the application of numerical methods for routine weather prédiction and
rospects for the future. Bo R. DOës - E. M. Dobrishman - A. Eliassen - K. H. Hinkelmann - H. Ito - F. G.
human.
Meteorological aspects of atmospheric radioactivity. Edited by W. Bleeker.
Meteorology and the Désert Locust. Proceedings of theWMO/FAO Seminar on Meteorology and the Désert
Locust. Tehran, 25 November-11 December 1963.
The circulation in the stratosphère, mésosphère and lower thermosphère. R. J. Murgatroyd - F. K. Hare B. W. Boville - S. Teweles - A. Kochanski.
Statistical analysis and prognosis in meteorology. Proceedings of the WMO inter-regional Seminar on Statistical
Analysis and Prognosis in Meteorology. Paris, 8-20 October 1962.
The préparation and use of weather maps by marinera.
Data processing in meteorology. Proceedings of the WMO/IUGG Symposium on Meteorological Data Processing.
Brussels, 1965.
Data-processing by machine methods (Report of the CCI Working Group on Data-Processingby Machine Methods,
prepared by J. F. Bosen, chairman - P. E. Kamenskaja - K. N. Rao - E. J. Sumner - T. Werner Johannessen).
The use of satellite pictures in weather analysis and forecasting. R. K. Anderson - E . W. Ferguson - V. J. Oliver
(Applications Group, National Environmental Satellite Center of the Environmental Science Services Administration).
Instruments and measurements in hydrometeorology. Lectures given at the second session of the Commission
for Hydrometeorology, Warsaw, 29 September - 15 October 1964.
Lower troposphère soundings (Report of a working group of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of
Observation, prepared by D. H. Pack, chairman - G. Cena - A. Valentin - M. F. E. Hinzpeter - P. Vockeroth
and P. A. Vorontsov).
(Revised version of Technical Note No. 27.) Use of ground-based radar in meteorology (excluding upper-wind
measurements) (Report by two working groupe of the Commission for Instruments and Methods of Observation,
prepared by R. F. Jones, chairman - J. P. Henderson - R. Lhermitte - H. Mitra - A. Perlât - V. D . Rockney
- N. P. Sellick and revised by S. G. Bigler, chairman - H. N. Brann - K. L. S. Gunn - I. Imai - R. F. Jones L. S. Mathur - H. Treussart) (reprinted 1968).
Climatic change (Report of a working group of the Commission for Climatology, prepared by J. M. Mitchell, Jr.,
chairman - B. Dzerdzeevskii - H Flohn - W. L. Hofmeyr - H. H. Lamb - K. N. Rao - C. C. Wallén).
Utilization of aircraft meteorological reports (A revised édition of Technical Note No. 57, published under the
same title) (Report of a working group of the Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology, prepared by S. Simplicio, chairman, and Y. Hoem).
Some methods of climatological analysis. H. C. S. Thom.
Automatic weather stations (Proceedings of the WMO Technical Conférence on Automatic Weather Stations,
Geneva, 1966).
Measurement and estimation of evaporation and évapotranspiration (Report of the CIMO Working Group on
Evaporation Measurement, prepared by M. Gangopadhyaya, chairman - G. Earl Harbeck, Jr. - Tor J. Nordenson
- M. H. Omar - V. A. Uryvaev) (reprinted 1968).
A note on climatological normals. Report of a working group of the Commission for Climatology, prepared by
P. Jagannathan, chairman - R. Arléry — H. ten Kate - M. V. Zavarina.
Précisions des mesures pyrhéUométriques. Communications et discussions présentées au cours de la troisième
session du Groupe de travail du rayonnement de l'Association régionale YI qui s'est tenue à l'Institut Royal
Météorologique de Belgique à Bruxelles, 23-27 mai 1966.
An agroclimatology survey of a semiarid area in Africa south of the Sahara. J. Cochemé and P. Franquin.
Etude agroclimatologique dans une zone semi-aride en Afrique au sud du Sahara. J. Cochemé et P. Franquin.
Polar meteorology. Proceedings of the WMO/SCAR/ICPM Symposium on Polar Meteorology, Geneva, 5-9 September 1966.
E
No. 68
No. 69
No. 70
No. 71
No. 72
No. 73
No. 74
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No. 77
No. 78
No. 79
No. 80
No. 81
No. 82
No. 83
No. 84
No. 85
No. 86
No. 86
No. 87
No. 88
No. 89
No. 90
No. 91
No. 92
No. 93
No. 94
No. 95
No. 96
No. 97
No. 98
No. 99
No. 100
La meteorologîa aeronâutica en America Latina. Procedimientos del Scminario de formaciôn régional de la
OMM, Costa Rica, 29 de noviembre - 17 de diciembre de 1965 (In
préparation).
Meteorological problems in the design and opération of supersonic aircraft. R. F. Jones - R. M. Mcinturff and
S. Teweles.
Measurement of peak dischargc by indirect methods. Prcpared by M. A. Bcnson.
Mcthods in use for the atmospheric pressure.
Hydrological forecasling (Proceedings of the WMO/UNESCO Symposium on Hydrological Forecasting, Surfers'
Paradise, Australia, 1967) (In
préparation).
Vertical wind shear in the lower layers of the atmosphère (In
préparation).
Measurement of atmospheric radioactivity. 0 . Suschny.
Aeronautical meteorology (Proceedings of the Scientific and Tcchnical Conférence on Aeronautical Meteorology,
London, 18-29 March 1968).
Air pollutants, meteorology, and plant injury (Report of the Working Group on Plant Injury and Réduction of
Yield by Non-Radioactive Air Pollutants of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, prepared by E. I.
Mukammal, chairman - C. S. Brandt - R. Neuwirth - D. H. Pack and W. C. Swinbank).
Practical soil moisture problems in agriculture (Report of the Working Group on Practical Soil Moisture Problems
in Agriculture of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, prepared by G. Stanhill, chairman — W. Baier —
J. J. Doyle - M. Gangopadhyaya - L. A. Razumova - E. J . Winter).
Estimation of maximum floods (Report of a working group of the Commission for Hydrometeorology).
Meteorological factors affecting the epidemiology of wheat rusts (Report of the Working Group on Meteorological Factors Affecting the Epidemiology of Wheat Rusts of the Commission for Agricultural Meteorology,
prepared by W. H. Hogg, chairman - C. E. Hounam - A. K. Mallik - J . C. Zadoks).
Data processing for climatological purposes (Proceedings of the WMO Symposium, Asheville, N.C., 1968).

data processing for climatological purposes

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