2016 Flood Forecasting and Warning Program

2016 Flood Forecasting
and Warning Program
For more information:
www.quinteconservation.ca
(613) 968-3434 or (613) 354-3312
RR 2, 2061 Old Highway 2 • Belleville, ON • K8N 4Z2
CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION
3
1.1 Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act
4
2.0 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF AGENCIES
5
2.1 Municipal Role
5
2.1.1 Sandbags
5
2.2 Conservation Authority Role
6
2.2.1 Data Collection and Assessment
6
2.3 Provincial Role (Surface Water Monitoring Centre)
7
3.0 FLOOD MESSAGES
9
3.1 TYPES OF FLOOD MESSAGES
10
3.1.1 Water Safety Statement
10
3.1.2 Flood Outlook Statement
10
3.1.3 Flood Watch
10
3.1.4 Flood Warning
10
4.0 FLOOD RESPONSE PROCEDURES
11
4.1 ComMunications and Operations Related to Municipal Emergency
Operations Centres
11
5.0 WHERE TO ORDER SAND BAGS
12
6.0 QUINTE CONSERVATION CONTACT INFORMATION
13
6.1 Flood Coordinators
13
6.2 McLeod Dam Operator
13
6.3 Flood Communications
14
Page 1 of 26
7.0 DATA COLLECTION SITES
15
7.1 Moira River Watershed
15
7.2 Napanee River Watershed
15
7.3 Prince Edward County Watershed
15
8.0 EXTREME EVENTS IN QUINTE
22
8.1 Moira River
22
8.2 Salmon River
23
8.3 Napanee River
24
9.0 HIGH RISK AREAS FOR MUNICIPALITIES
25
9.1 Moira RIver Watershed
25
9.2 Napanee Region Watershed
25
9.3 Prince Edward Region Watershed
26
There is a map at the back of this booklet showing high risk flood areas.
With special thanks to the GTA Conservation Authorities Flood Group
for providing some of the information in this booklet.
Page 2 of 26
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Quinte Conservation acts in an advisory capacity only, providing continuous
monitoring of flood conditions.
Quinte Conservation is not responsible for flood fighting other than in the
operation of its own dams.
During a flooding situation, Quinte Conservation’s office will be staffed
appropriately to monitor water levels and weather conditions on a 24-hour
basis if required.
The responsibility for dealing with flood contingency planning in Ontario is
shared by municipalities, Conservation Authorities and the Ministry of Natural
Resources (MNR), on behalf of the province. As with all emergencies,
municipalities have the primary responsibility for the welfare of residents, and
should incorporate flood emergency response into municipal emergency
planning. The MNR and the Conservation Authorities are primarily responsible
for operating a forecasting and warning system, and the province may
coordinate a response in support of municipal action.
Quinte Conservation has developed a Flood Forecasting and Warning Service
for its municipalities and residents within their watershed and the shoreline of
Lake Ontario. The purpose of this service is to reduce risk to life and damage to
property by providing local agencies and the public with notice, information
and advice so that they can respond to potential flooding and flood
emergencies.
This Flood Forecasting and Warning Program is intended for all public officials
and agency staff likely to play a role in the prevention, mitigation,
preparedness, response and recovery pertaining to flood events. This version
of the Program provides general information on the Quinte Conservation
Forecasting and Warning System, as well as specific information and contacts
for municipalities within its jurisdiction.
Page 3 of 26
1.1 EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND CIVIL PROTECTION
ACT
Ontario’s Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act (EMCPA, 2006) sets
out requirements for the development, implementation and maintenance of
municipal and ministry emergency management programs. These
comprehensive emergency management programs are based on the five
principles of emergency management: prevention, mitigation, preparedness,
response, and recovery. The province describes six “pillars of preparedness”;
each an essential component of an emergency management program,
including:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Emergency Plans
Emergency Operations Centre
Training
Exercises
Emergency Information
Public Education
The province has assigned the emergency response responsibility for flooding
to the MNR, which includes flood forecasting and warning as well as flood
control operations. Where a Conservation Authority exists, the province relies
on the Conservation Authority to assist them in their assigned responsibilities
for flooding.
Quinte Conservation’s Flood Forecasting and Warning Program provides vital
service to our municipal partners to ensure that the flood aspects of these
components are met.
Page 4 of 26
2.0 ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF
AGENCIES
2.1 MUNICIPAL ROLE
Under the Emergency Management and Civil Protection Act (Ontario
Regulation 380/04), municipalities have the primary responsibility and
authority for response to flooding and flood emergencies, and also for the
welfare of residents and protection of property. In order to fulfill this
responsibility, municipalities should ensure that emergency plans are kept
current and tested on a regular basis.
Upon receiving a Flood Watch or Flood Warning municipalities shall:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Notify appropriate municipal officials, departments and agencies in
accordance with their municipal emergency plan.
Determine the appropriate response to a flood threat and, if
warranted, deploy municipal resources to protect life and property.
If required, declare a flood emergency and implement their
emergency response plan.
Request provincial assistance under the Emergency Management
and Civil Protection Act, if municipal resources are inadequate to
respond to the emergency.
Maintain liaison with Conservation Authority Flood Coordinators.
2.1.1 Sandbags
Each Municipality that traditionally experiences spring flooding must have its
own supply of sandbags; however, Quinte Conservation has a stock of 40,000
sandbags for emergency use should its member municipalities run short.
Please note that over 2,000 sandbags are required to construct a dyke 4 feet
high by 100 feet long.
Page 5 of 26
2.2 CONSERVATION AUTHORITY ROLE
Conservation Authorities have several areas of responsibility for flooding and
flood emergencies:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Support municipal flood emergency planning by providing technical
advice pertaining to flood risk (e.g., hydrology, hydraulics, flood
vulnerable areas, etc.) and engaging in flood mitigation projects to
reduce flood risk prior to flood events.
Maintain a local network, collect data, and monitor watershed and
weather conditions daily in order to provide timely warning of
anticipated or actual flood condition. Provide updated forecasts
and other supporting technical data pertaining to flood conditions
under their jurisdiction during an event.
Issue flood messages to municipalities and other appropriate
agencies, including the media and the public, to advise of potential
flooding when appropriate.
Operate Conservation Authority dams and flood control structures
to reduce the effects of flooding when appropriate.
Maintain communications with municipalities and the Surface
Water Monitoring Centre of the MNR during a flood event.
2.2.1 Data Collection and Assessment
In order to forecast a flood and to provide as much advance notice as possible,
Quinte Conservation staff collects data from five different sources:
1.
2.
Weather forecasts and runoff conditions from the Surface Water
Monitoring Centre (MNR), CFB Trenton and various weather
websites. All information is updated daily.
Quinte Conservation stream gauges located throughout the
watershed; water level, temperature and precipitation amounts are
collected hourly.
Page 6 of 26
3.
4.
5.
Quinte Conservation staff perform snow measurements twice each
month; snow depth and water content are measured.
In areas prone to frazil ice flooding (Moira River Watershed) ice
measurements are taken. The ice sheet, as well as the depth and
viscosity of frazil ice below the ice sheet are measured. Daily visual
assessment of rivers and lakes by Quinte Conservation staff plus
the observation of staff gauges (generally a metre stick attached to
bridges used by staff to monitor water levels). This activity includes
documenting the extent of any flood damages.
Snow depth and water content measured in our network of gauges.
Quinte Conservation’s Flood Forecasting System enables staff to predict the
amount of runoff from a rainfall or snow melt event as well as the
approximate time when the peak water levels will be experienced. Remote
gauging stations monitor rainfall; snow accumulation is monitored by direct
measurement. Water level gauges also provide us with real time river flows.
By comparison to documented events, staff can predict the time to peak for
each river. Also, by monitoring upper stream gauges, we can make a
prediction of the peak amount of runoff that will be experienced downstream.
Quinte Conservation also uses a computer model to predict the amount of
runoff that could result based on watershed conditions at the time using
predicted rainfall depths. This computer model provides early awareness to
staff of the potential for flooding conditions.
2.3 PROVINCIAL ROLE (SURFACE WATER MONITORING
CENTRE)
1.
2.
Operate and maintain a provincial forecasting and warning system
to alert MNR District Offices and Conservation Authorities of
potential meteorological events that could create a flood hazard.
Maintain communications with MNR District Offices and
Conservation Authorities regarding the status of provincial flood
potential.
Page 7 of 26
3.
4.
Receive messages from Conservation Authorities, MNR District
Offices and other agencies and provide analysis and information
that is used to guide the MNRs response to a flood.
Assists the MNR Districts where Conservation Authorities do not
exist in the preparation of river response forecasts, daily planning
cycle, and the monitoring of local storm conditions.
Page 8 of 26
3.0 FLOOD MESSAGES
A flood is defined as a situation where water levels in a watercourse exceed
the channel banks. Quinte Conservation operates a 24-hour flood forecasting
and warning program that monitors weather forecasts and watershed
conditions. This information is used to assess the potential for flooding. When
spring melt or severe storms are anticipated, Quinte Conservation estimates
the severity, location, and timing of possible flooding, and provides these
forecasts to local agencies.
Quinte Conservation uses an array of technologies to disseminate flood
messages. Quinte Conservation issues messages using email including
Constant Contact email, Twitter, Facebook, media releases and website
technologies. During a power or internet outage at the Quinte Conservation
office a facsimile will be used. Messages are sent to designated individuals
within municipalities and other local agencies. These individuals, in turn, are
responsible for relaying the message to relevant individuals and departments
within their organizations, and activating their role as defined by their
organization’s Emergency Response Plan.
In order to improve the understanding of flood messages sent by Quinte
Conservation, flood messages may include the following terminology to
describe the magnitude of anticipated flooding.
No Flooding: Water levels remain within channel banks.
Nuisance Flooding: Flooding of low lying lands. However, road access remains
available and no structures will be flooded.
Minor Flooding: Potential for some structural flooding and sections of road
access may be impassable. No evacuation is required.
Major Flooding: Potential for significant basement flooding, some 1st floor
flooding, and significant road access cuts. Evacuation possibly required.
Severe Flooding: Potential for many structures to be flooded, major disruption
of roads and services. Evacuation is required due to risk to life and major
damages to residential, industrial, commercial and/or agricultural sites. The
event may produce negative environmental impacts caused by spills of
Page 9 of 26
hazardous substances such as sewage, oils, chemicals, etc., that pose a threat
to public safety and/or to the ecosystem.
3.1 TYPES OF FLOOD MESSAGES
When conditions warrant, Quinte Conservation will communicate with local
agencies using one of the following types of messages:
3.1.1 Water Safety Statement
A Water Safety Statement indicates that high flows,
unsafe banks, melting ice or other factors could be
dangerous for users such as anglers, boaters,
swimmers, children or pets. Flooding is not expected.
3.1.2 Flood Outlook Statement
A Flood Outlook Statement gives early notice of the
potential for flooding based on weather forecasts
calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other
conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice
jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
3.1.3 Flood Watch
This level notifies that the potential for flooding exists
within specific watercourses and municipalities.
Municipalities, emergency services and individual
landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.
3.1.4 Flood Warning
A Flood Warning means flooding is imminent or
already occurring in specific watercourses or
municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should
take action to deal with flood conditions. This may
include road closures and evacuations.
Page 10 of 26
4.0 FLOOD RESPONSE PROCEDURES
As previously mentioned, during an actual flood event the primary
responsibility for the welfare of residents and protection of property rests with
the municipality. Upon receiving a flood message, municipalities should
monitor their local conditions and determine the appropriate action, which
may include activating their Emergency Response Plan.
Where a flood emergency is beyond the capacity of a municipality, provincial
assistance can be requested in accordance with the municipality’s Emergency
Response Plan.
During a flood, Quinte Conservation will continue to provide updated
information as well as technical advice on flood mitigation.
During the emergency, Quinte Conservation staff will continue to advise the
Surface Water Monitoring Centre (MNR) of the status of the situation. The
Centre will be responsible for updating and relaying information related to the
emergency to the Ministry’s District Offices.
4.1 COMMUNICATIONS AND OPERATIONS RELATED TO
MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTRES
The Province of Ontario, through its Emergency Management and Civil
Protection Act legislation, requires all municipalities to have valid emergency
response plans and procedures in place. One component of this requirement
is the need to have a defined Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) where
municipal activities can be undertaken in the event of an emergency. Under
normal flooding operations where there is no need to activate the EOC, Quinte
Conservation will provide information as requested by their local
municipalities. Quinte Conservation will present one or more members of
staff at the EOC (if resources permit) where staff will coordinate flood related
information and advice.
Page 11 of 26
5.0 WHERE TO ORDER SAND BAGS
Burtex Industries
Arthur Saunders
66 Bartor Road
Weston, ON
M9M 2G5
P: 1-800-268-0908
C: 416-315-2396
F: 416-740-2261
E: [email protected]
http://www.burtexburlap.com/
Polytarp Products
Irving Kohl
350 Wildcat Road
Toronto, ON
M3J 2N5
P: 1-800-606-2231 x 280
P: 416-633-2231 x 280
F: 416-633-1685
E: [email protected]
http://www.polytarp.com/
Vince Products Inc. / Harnois Shelters
Vivianne Dion
507 Route 158
St-Thomas, QC
J0K 3L0
P: 866-661-6646 x 203
F: 450-755-6878
E: [email protected]
http://www.abrisharnois.com/en/
Page 12 of 26
6.0 QUINTE CONSERVATION CONTACT
INFORMATION
6.1 FLOOD COORDINATORS
Terry Murphy – General Manager
E: [email protected]
P: 613-968-3434 ext. 103
C: 613-391-4040
Christine McClure – Water Resources Manager
E: [email protected]
P: 613-968-3434 ext. 130
C: 613-848-1286
Paul McCoy – Planning and Regulations Manager
E: [email protected]
P: 613-968-3434 ext. 108
C: 613-967-7236
Back up phone / facsimile if main line out of service (613) 968-4949
6.2 MCLEOD DAM OPERATOR
Tom Sweet – Dam Operator
E: [email protected]
C: 613-847-1317
Page 13 of 26
6.3 FLOOD COMMUNICATIONS
Jennifer May-Anderson – Communications Manager
E: [email protected]
P: 613-968-3434 ext. 125
C: 613-847-1764
Page 14 of 26
7.0 DATA COLLECTION SITES
7.1 MOIRA RIVER WATERSHED
7.2 NAPANEE RIVER WATERSHED
7.3 PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY WATERSHED
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3::3D7::3
8.0 EXTREME EVENTS IN QUINTE
Quinte Conservation staff have reviewed the flow records from several stream
flow stations in the Quinte area. The records range from 100 years of record
for the Moira River to 56 years for Salmon River. Typically flood events occur
in the spring and all the largest events are spring runoff events. River flow
peaks are driven by a combination of snow melt and spring rains.
8.1 MOIRA RIVER
In Moira River at Foxboro the following years rank the highest for flood flows.
Year
Date
Peak Daily (cms)
1981
26-Feb
364
1936
31-Mar
351
1976
3-Apr
343
2014
17-Apr
341
1948
25-Mar
314
1928
9-Apr
311
1980
24-Mar
306
1917
30-Mar
294
1947
10-Apr
292
1952
8-Apr
292
1960
9-Apr
286
1987
8-Apr
286
2008
15-Apr
285
The most common date for the peak to arrive is April 9th. In an average year
the peak arrives on April 1 (this is affected by the fall events). The median
Page 22 of 26
date for the peak spring runoff event is April 5th. Peaks occurring within one
standard deviation of the mean fall between March 18th and April 30th.
8.2 SALMON RIVER
In the Salmon River at Shannonville the following years rank the highest for
flood flows (cms).
Year
Date
Peak Daily (cms)
1981
21-Feb
106
1960
4-Apr
104
2014
9-Apr
99
1959
3-Apr
88.1
1976
28-Mar
86.4
1974
5-Apr
80.1
1993
31-Mar
78.3
1971
14-Apr
77.9
2005
4-Apr
76.8
1982
4-Apr
76.2
1973
18-Mar
75
2008
13-Apr
74.7
The most common date for the peak to arrive is April 4th. In an average year
the peak arrives on March 20th (this is affected by the fall events). The
median for the peak spring event is April 2nd. Peaks occurring within one
standard deviation from the mean fall between March 7th and April 16th.
Page 23 of 26
8.3 NAPANEE RIVER
This gauge was moved to Camden East in 1974. Previous records exist from
1916 to 1974 for the former location in Napanee. Statistics were not
performed on the earlier gauge.
Year
Date
Peak Daily (cms)
2014
15-Apr
80
1976
1-Apr
76.5
1981
24-Feb
66.2
2008
14-Apr
59.3
1993
11-Apr
53.6
1978
13-Apr
53.5
1982
4-Apr
52.4
1974
7-Apr
51
1997
8-Apr
50.6
1980
25-Mar
49.7
2005
6-Apr
47.3
The most common date for the peak to arrive is April 14th. In an average year
the peak arrives on March 19th (this date is affected by the fall events). The
median for the peak spring event is April 3rd. The mean of the spring events
occurs on March 24th. Peaks occurring within one standard deviation from
the mean fall between February 21st and April 5th.
Page 24 of 26
9.0 HIGH RISK AREAS FOR
MUNICIPALITIES
Flooding can occur from a number of factors, or combinations thereof, such as
heavy snowfall combined with late or rapid snowmelts, deep frost and/or
excessive rainy weather, or ice jams. Municipalities should prepare flood
warning plans for each flood prone area. The major flood prone areas are as
follows:
9.1 MOIRA RIVER WATERSHED
• Moira River at Bannockburn; Village of Tweed; East Channel Outlet;
Latta; Plainfield; Foxboro; and the City of Belleville
• Skootamatta River at Actinolite
• Deer Creek in the Village of Madoc
• Stoco Lake
• Moira Lake
9.2 NAPANEE REGION WATERSHED
• Napanee River at Yarker; Camden East; Petworth Bridge; Newburgh; and
Strathcona
• Salmon River at Waddingham Valley; Croydon; Teskey Road Bridge;
Kingsford; and Arden
• White Lake (Sheffield Twp.)
• Verona (Rock) Lake
• Big Clear Lake
• Varty Lake
• Hambly Lake
• Howes Lake
• Thirteen Island Lake
Page 25 of 26
9.3 PRINCE EDWARD REGION WATERSHED
• Macaulay Creek/Marsh Creek/Hospital Creek all within the town of
Picton
• Bloomfield Creek in Bloomfield
• Lane Creek in Wellington
• Slab Creek in Hillier
• Consecon Creek in Consecon
Page 26 of 26
Quinte Conservation Watershed
TOWN SHIP OF ADDIN GTON HIGH
LANDS
Upper Partridge Lake
Dafoe Lake
Merrill Lake
TOWNSHIP S OF
TUDO R & CASHEL
Joeperry Lake
Whitefish Lake
TOWNSHIP OF NORTH FRONTENAC
Grimstho rpe Lake
Pringle Lake
Skootamatta Lake
Sheldrake Lake
Jordan Lake
TOWNSHIP OF CENTRAL
FRONTENAC
Lingham Lake
TOWNSHIPS OF
TUDOR & CASHE L
41
Deerock Lake
7
Arden
MUNIC IPALI TY OF TWEED
Bannockburn
TOWNSHIP OF MADOC
Lak
e
ield
Lo n
g
Eldorado Lake
11
De
po
tL
ak
e
2
Sh e
ff
20
Fif
th
62
Big Clear Lake
7
Wolf Lake
Robinson Lake
12
Actinolite
41
Thirteen Island 8Lake
TOW NSHIP OF STONE MILLS
MUN ICIPA LITY OF
MARM ORA &Jarvis
Lake
LAK
E
7
38
39
Village of Madoc
19
Howes Lake
Moira Lake
Village of Tweed
37East
MUN ICIPAL ITY OF
CENTRE HASTINGS
TOW NSHIP OF
STIRLING -RAWDON
13
White
Channel Outlet
Lake
13
Bend Bay
14
Croydon
Teskey Rd Bridge
3
Moira River
Petworth Bridge
TOWN OF
GREATER NAPANEE
8
Varty Lake
4
Village of Yarker
Salmon River
41
1
Camden East Road
Newburgh
12
6
7
Latta
Plainfi eld
Napanee River
Strathcona
ford
TOW NSHIP OF TYENDINAGA
Kings
11
Waddingham Valley
5
14
TOWNSH IP OF
SOUTH FRONTENAC
6
2
14
41
Verona Lake
Hambly Lake
7
Stoco Lake
38
37
Foxboro
CITY OF QUIN TE WEST
62
CITY OF BELLEVILLE
15
LOYAL IST TOWNSH IP
1
31
1
2
18
2
City of Belleville
9
Hay Bay
Lon
gR
eac
h
Bay of Quinte
28
49
Muscote Bay
rs
ye
in
Pr
e
ov
14
23
3
na
Ca
ray
Mur
C
Adolphus Reach
l
b lin
Ro
ke
La
5
62
Picton Bay
2
7
COUN TY OF PRINC E EDWARD
19
4
Hospital Creek
Weller's Bay
on
sec
Con
Macaulay Creek
1
e
La k
Village of Consecon
Village of Wellington
Village of Bloomfield
11
Wellington Bay
0 2.5 5
10
15
20
Kilometers
12
17
20
8
Smith Bay
13
Marsh Creek
Village of Hillier
33
North
Bay
27
Pleasant
Bay
Huyck's
Bay
25
Town of Picton
Prince Edward Bay
10
1:370,000
West Lake
South Bay
East Lake
18
13
Legend
Athol Bay
24
Salmon Point
Soup Harbour
Point Petre
County Road
Provincial Highway
Highway 401
High Risk Flooding Areas