Umåker 23.04.2016

Umåker 23.04.2016
V75 2:
Umåker har et kort opløb på kun 184 m. Dermed
er der en stor fordel til spidshesten, og til de med
fremspor. Umåker afholder ikke mange V75
omgange, men når de gør, plejer der tilgengæld
også at blive godt betalt til de med 7 rigtige. Husk
på at banen ligger højt mod nord, og mange
heste skal rejse langt for at stille til start. I og med
banen er så nordlig, risikerer vejret også at kunne
drille - endda med sne.
Normalt tilhører 1 Tekno Odin verdens bedste
koldblodsheste, men den har ikke vist gnistrende
form på det sidste. Senest blev den slået relativt
enkelt, og lignede ikke den stjerne den ellers er.
Sporet er godt, og den burde kunne holde spids.
Men indtil den har bevist storform, tør jeg ikke
stå ugarderet. 2 Fjord Jerven var ude i en
voldsom åbning mod 1 Tekno Odin senest, og
endte faktisk med at se bedre ud på dagen. Der
er højest tænkeligt lagt op til en hård spidskamp
igen de to imellem, og hvis ingen af dem vil give
sig, kan det åbne op for andre mindre betroede
heste. 8 Myr Faksen har et skidt spor, men er
bestemt god nok til at vinde alligevel, skulle de to
favoritter få kørt pusten af hinanden. Jeg tager
også 6 Art Kjarvald med, da denne stod for en fin
præstation fra et håbløst spor senest. I
Koldblodsløb vinder stregfordelingens rang 1-4
statistisk set 79 % af alle løb.
V75 1:
V75 3:
I Bronzedivisionen vinder stregfordelingens rang
1-4 statistisk set 80 % af alle løb. Da disse fire
denne gang, samtidig også har de fire statistisk
set bedste spor – da burde løbet være lukket. 1
Above All Ås har det bedste spor, og er en hurtig
starter. Med en frisk sejr i bagagen, skulle det
undre mig om ikke også kusken prøver at køre sin
chance i spids. Næstbedste spor og springspor
har 6 Bravo Navarone, og tilmed udstyret med
voltespecialist Adielsson i sulkyen. Hesten er gået
en klasse op, men skulle den komme til front, er
den bestemt god nok til at vinde dette. 2 Make It
Quick har et fint spor, hvorfra den kan ligge og
afvente opløbets kommen. Hesten vinder ofte, og
har tre sejre i år allerede. 7 Queer Fish har også
springspor, men jeg er i tvivl om den kan udnytte
det. I årsdebuten var den ikke prangende, men
gjorde det hæderligt efter et umuligt løb i
dødens. Vi ved at den er god når den rammer
dagen, og skal derfor ikke glemmes her.
1 Venkatesh er vel den hest i løbet, der har vist
bedst form for tiden. Modstanderne i dens sidste
start, var meget bedre end de den møder her –
men til gengæld er indersporet nu ikke optimalt
for favoritten. 1 Venkatesh er ikke super hurtig
fra start, og kan også godt finde på at galoppere.
Der er altså en risiko for at den blive fanget på
indersporet, og derfor vælger jeg at gardere.
Bliver favoritten sat fast, så er spidsen guld værd.
Jeg ved ikke hvem af 6 Rocky Winner eller 7 Ed
You der er hurtigst fremme for at få lov at
overtage fronten, så derfor spiller jeg begge. At
tage begge med er vel også ok, i og med at 6
Rocky Winner galopperede i sin sidste start, og 7
Ed You i sin start heller ikke lignede sit bedste jeg.
V75 4:
Dette er i min optik dagens mest åbne løb,
medmindre det er så let at favoritten 6 Calle Lady
vinder med spids og slut? Springsporet har den,
Umåker 23.04.2016
og starthurtig er den også. Negativt er den lange
rejse, samt at hesten kun har taget én sejr
udenfor Solvalla. Sidst den forsøgte sig udenfor
Solvalla, blev det også til galop. Jeg satser på en
galop gentagelse, og tager derfor en stor flok
heste med, og håber på et skrald. Af de klasser
hvori der konkurreres i idag, da er Klasse II den
klasse, hvor der statistisk set er den største
chance for at ramme et skrald. Eller sagt på en
anden måde, der hvor favoritten indfrier færrest
gange – så det skal udnyttes.
V75 5:
7 Propulsion har været den helt store snak-hest,
siden den vandt sin årsdebut i fremragende stil.
Hesten kommer med seks sejre på stribe, og har
dermed uden tvivl respekten med sig. Sporet er
yderligt, og hesten er ikke specielt hurtig fra start.
Sporene betyder mindre når det er lang distance,
og favoritten vil givetvis hurtigt forsøge at
komme frem og overtage spidsen. Jeg prøver at
gardere storfavoritten, da sporet er halvskidt og
den samtidig er uprøvet på distancen. Hvis man
vil vinde en million, da er dette hesten der skal
fældes. 2 Only One Winner er hurtig fra start, og
jeg tror den tager spids. På baner med kort opløb,
da er spidshesten altid værd at have med. 2 Only
One Winner bør være nær topformen, nu med to
løb i kroppen. Bedste spor har 5 Panoramic, der
tidligere har vist at den trives på distancen. I
sidste start så den ud til at være tilbage i form, og
skulle der komme fart på løbet, så kan den
muligvis overraske.
V75 6:
3 Volstead og 7 Daley Lovin havde en drabelig
duel i begges årsdebut for et par uger siden, og
jeg tror dette løb står mellem de to igen. 7 Daley
Lovin vandt det omtalte tidligere møde, men
havde også da et langt bedre spor. 3 Volstead er
er berettiget favorit nu, da denne højest
tænkeligt vil få spids. Bergh og 5 Michelangelo Ås
vil forsøge at tage spidsen, men med 3
Voldsteads staldkammerat 1 Al Dente på
indersporet, tvivler jeg på at den får lov til at
overtage. – Hvis den vel og mærke i det hele
taget, får sig en længde på favoritten i
startmomentet. Lås på de to mest spillede.
V75 7:
Sidste afdeling ligner en åben affære, men jeg
tror det er mere simpelt end som så. 2 Voulez
Vous har et godt spor, og er hurtig fra start. Den
stod for en fin årsdebut, og nu hvor den
forventeligt tager spids, tror jeg den sælger sig
selv dyrt i den position. Det tiltaler mig, at hesten
kommer fra det nordlige Sverige, og dermed ikke
bliver nedsat af langrejse eller evt. snevejr. Jeg
står ugarderet på favoritten, og glædes over at
den ikke er ret hårdt spillet.
Statistik Spillerens V75 forslag:
Stort forslag
Afd.
Heste nr.
1
1-2-6-7
2
1-2-6-8
3
1-6-7
4
1-2-3-6-7-8-9
5
2-5-7
6
3-7
7
2 Voulez Vous
I alt 1008 kr.
Res.
9-12
7-9
11-9
12-10
1-12
5-2
3-7
Gangebon
Afd.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Heste nr.
1-6
1-2
1 Venkatesh
2-3-6-9
7 Propulsion
3-7
2 Voulez Vous
I alt 16 kr.
Res.
2-7
8-6
6-7
7-1
2-5
5-2
3-7
Umåker - Saturday, April 23
Race 1
Auto 2140
3 Staro Family has been improved in monte. Has been consistent and good but
broke on the way to victory two races back. Took revenge directly in the last race.
Hard to beat. 5 Dante Band has taken three monte wins in a row and been improved
a lot in that discipline. Tougher opponents now. 4 Operating Limit is also a good
monte horse. Has taken good wins lately. 10 Conrads Voldemort has not convinced
so far this season but might be on the way up now.
Race 2
Auto 2140
11 Ponderosa Face has been on the way up for Per Linderoth and become more
consistent. Finished strongly in the last race and faces quite easy opponents here. 8
Tim Frontline broke against tough opponents in the last race but came back well a
bit behind the winner. Is on the way up. Early contender without a mistake. 2 Laddy
Laday made a big mistake in the last race and never had a chance. Finished well
from far behind before that. This starting method is a big advantage. 5 Fiveseventy
Boko took the lead in the last race and won comfortably. He has taken both wins in
the front. Early choice.
Race 3
Volt 2640
7 Brio du Biwetz is very gifted and has won in the front. Likes this distance and faces
nice conditions here. 13 Ottens Casher took a good third spot in the last V75 race.
Consistent and good. Early contender. 12 Wild Thing has been fit lately and done
well. Was not empty in the last V75 final. Likes the long distance. 1 Beaufort has got
a tricky post as he is more strong than speedy. 2 Ninepoints Googoo finished
strongly to victory in the last comeback race. Will be interesting to follow.
Race 4
Auto 2140
12 Ivan de Luxe is back in fine form for new trainer Svante Båth. Nice horse and our
pick despite this bad post. He prefers to run in the front though. 5 Alva Sisu did not
find an opening in time in the last race but took a strong win from outside the leader
before that. The driver is in good form. 10 Finn McCool took a comfortable win in
the lead in the last race and should be followed in this field too. 8 Digital Import
needed the last comeback race. Has one race under his belt now and should be on
the way up.
Race 5, V75-1
Volt 2140
1 Above All Ås has done well in the V75 this winter and is developing well. Took the
lead in the last race and won on a new record. He can open fast and should have a
good chance in the front. 6 Bravo Navarone comes from a win in the lead too. Erik
Adielsson likes this kind of posts. 9 Top of the World prefers to run in the front and
this post is a big disadvantage. Fine form. 7 Queer Fish has done well in the V75 but
needed the last race after a pause. He prefers to run in the front.
Rank
A: 3
B: 5-4-10-6-7-1-8-9-2
C:
Rank
A: 11
B: 8-2-5-4-3-10-1-12-6
C: 9-7
Rank
A: 7
B: 13-12-1-2-11-9-14-5-10-3-6
C: 4-15-8
Rank
A: 12-5
B: 10-8-6-1-9-3-7
C: 4-2-11
Rank
A: 1-6-9
B: 7-2-11-10-12
C: 4-3-8-5
Umåker - Saturday, April 23
Race 6, V75-2
Auto 1640
1 Tekno Odin is a top horse and has earned almost 8.5 million SEK. Has not
convinced lately though and gave up in the last race from outside the leader.
Interesting post here and will be driven by Ulf Ohlsson. 2 Fjord Jerven has been
improved a lot and was really brave in the last race on a good time. He is consistent
and good. 6 Art Kjarvald did well in the last race a bit behind Fjord Jerven. Has got a
better post now and likes this distance. Outsider. 8 Myr Faksen won in the V75 last
winter and has done well against tough opponents. Fine form. Should not be
underestimated.
Race 7, V75-3
Auto 2140
1 Venkatesh did well in the last race on a new record a bit behind the winner. He is
on the way up and could get his breakthrough here. 11 Nahar is up and down and
beat easy horses in the last race. Bad post here but easy opponents. 7 Ed You is
really good every now and then. Good chance if he could reach the front. 9 Cool
Keeper is well prepared here and possible directly after a long pause.
Race 8, V75-4
Volt 2640
6 Calle Laday came back well after a mistake two races back in the V75. Took a
convincing win after that on Solvalla despite a tough final lap. This long distance is
an advantage. 3 Mellby Dealer showed good skills as a three year old. Did well in
the last seasonal debut and is developing well. 9 Reggae Hall is consistent and good
and has done well lately. He is strong and high pace would be an advantage. 2 Hot
Pride took a nice win in the seasonal debut and faces good conditions here.
Outsider.
Race 9, V75-5
Auto 2640
7 Propulsion has taken four wins in a row and impressed. He took a splendid win in
the last race and is too good for this class. Top chance. 1 Alkalizer Am is interesting
with one race under his belt. Tricky post but Adielsson now. Main challenger. 9
Global Revenge earned more than one million SEK last year and did really well.
Seasonal debut now but should be followed. 2 Only One Winner wins often and
likes to run in the front. Better now with the last races under his belt.
Race 10, V75-6
Auto 2140
3 Volstead has done really well so far and will be interesting to follow this season.
Was just closely defeated in the seasonal debut and has got a better post than the
main challenger. Our pick. 7 Daley Lovin beat our winner in the last seasonal debut.
He is a top horse and very consistent and good. Main challenger. 5 Michelangelo Ås
took many wins earlier this winter and is still developing. Should not be
underestimated here. 2 Fire to the Rain is on the way up again after a longer pause.
Faces nice conditions here.
Rank
A: 1-2
B: 6-8-7-9-3
C: 4-5
Rank
A: 1-11-7-9
B: 6-8-4
C: 3-5-10-2-12
Rank
A: 6-3
B: 9-2-11-12-1-8-10-5
C: 7-4
Rank
A: 7
B: 1-9-2-5-10-12-3-4-8
C: 6-11
Rank
A: 3-7
B: 5-2-1-8-9
C: 6-4
Umåker - Saturday, April 23
Race 11, V75-7
Auto 2140
2 Voulez Vous is very gifted but has been injured too. Was improved for a new
trainer last year and did well directly in the last seasonal debut. Our pick. 8 Magnifik
Brodde faces perfect conditions here and took a comfortable win in the last seasonal
debut. Tough post though. 6 Le Chapeau has taken two nice wins after a winter
break. He prefers to run in the front. 7 Sambucus P.R. won in the V75 earlier this
winter and was really good in the V86 two races back. Will run without shoes again
here. Possible.
Race 12
Volt 1640
7 Mix Mollyn has won five out of six races and did well in the debut for Björn
Karlsson too. Quick starter. Nice post. 13 Eskelands Söstra has been improved for a
new trainer this season and prefers the short distance. 1 Askehaug Kongen won
easily for Hanna Olofsson two races back in Boden. This short distance and this post
are perfect. 6 Hefti Maia won the last time she visited Sweden. She has done well in
Norway so far.
Rank
A: 2
B: 8-6-7-9-10-3-11
C: 1-4-5-12
Rank
A: 7
B: 13-1-6-11-4-12-5-9-2
C: 10-14-15-3-8