diesel locomotives – global market trends

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SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2015
DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES –
GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects
Extract from the study
DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects
This study entitled “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends” provides a
comprehensive overview into the structure, installed bases, procurements,
manufacturers and development trends in the rail vehicle segment analysed.
Based on current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled “Diesel Locomotives –
Global Market Trends”, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel
locomotives. Based on the successful preceding study from 2013 and experience from more
than 2 000 projects in the field of railway technology, in the past few years SCI Verkehr has
verified the central input data and optimised its forecasting methodology. We have reviewed
and updated all chapters of the preceding study. In addition, SCI Verkehr has performed an
improved product segmentation for valuation of installed bases and age structures.
In concrete terms, this MultiClient market study on diesel locomotives includes:
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A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel locomotives including
an in-depth analysis of all relevant markets of the individual countries
A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes,
quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential
An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of
diesel locomotives in the individual regions
An analysis of market shares of significant manufacturers as well as a forecast of the
vehicle demand
An overview of diesel locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their
current range of products and services
A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel
locomotives in diagram form
A list of operators’ vehicle fleets and the current diesel locomotive procurements in the
annex to the study.
Forecast of new procurement and after-sales volumes of diesel locomotives (in EUR) for
each region by 2019, review of the development up to 2010
Brief description of important current and planned procurement projects
All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for diesel
locomotives. The study therefore provides both companies established in the railway
industry as well as active and potential operators with important information for operational
and strategic planning.
SCI Verkehr analyses markets from the bottom up: based upon systematic observation of
the railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects forms
the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and the most
important regional focus markets. Within the scope of the continuous creation of the Multi
Client Series, SCI Verkehr systematically analyses more than 100 core countries for railway
technology.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 2
Extract from the study
The Multi Client Study “Diesel Locomotives – Global Market Trends” is available in
English from September 2015.
SCI Verkehr is an independent consultancy company for the mobility sector with activities
around the world. We specialise in strategic advice to the railway and logistics industry. We
have established an international network of professional experts. Our activities focus on
companies in the transport and rail industry and in the transport operation, logistics and
financial sectors, as well as the transport and economics departments at national, regional
and municipal levels.
Your contact
Ann Kathrin Arntz
Tel: +49 221 9317820
E-mail: [email protected]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 3
Extract from the study
DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES – GLOBAL MARKET TREND – CONTENT
1
Executive Summary: The World Market for Diesel Locomotives ....................... 19
1.1
Market Overview ......................................................................................................... 19
1.2
Installed base/age structure ....................................................................................... 23
1.3
Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares .................................................................... 25
1.4
Market volume and market development .................................................................. 27
2
Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study ........................................... 31
2.1
Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................ 31
2.2
Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market ......................................................... 32
2.3
Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................... 41
3
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Europe .................................................... 45
3.1
Germany ..................................................................................................................... 61
3.2
France ........................................................................................................................ 65
3.3
Poland ........................................................................................................................ 68
3.4
Italy ............................................................................................................................. 71
3.5
Romania ..................................................................................................................... 73
3.6
Czech Republic .......................................................................................................... 76
3.7
United Kingdom ......................................................................................................... 78
3.8
Turkey ......................................................................................................................... 81
4
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Asia ......................................................... 83
4.1
China .......................................................................................................................... 95
4.2
India ............................................................................................................................ 98
5
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in North America ...................................... 101
6
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in South/Central America ........................ 115
7
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in the CIS .................................................. 129
7.1
Russia ....................................................................................................................... 140
7.2
Ukraine ..................................................................................................................... 145
7.3
Kazakhstan ............................................................................................................... 149
8
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/ Middle East ............................... 153
8.1
Iran............................................................................................................................ 166
8.2
South Africa .............................................................................................................. 168
9
The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific ................................... 171
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 4
Extract from the study
ANNEX
Annex A: Manufacturers ................................................................................................ 183
Annex B: Fleet structures .............................................................................................. 235
Annex C: Stock of the Railway Companies ................................................................... 257
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 5
Extract from the study
Extract from the Study:
Market Overview
D-Locos
Market for
after sales
Market for new
Installed base
vehicles
South/Central America
Units 2014
5 200
Average development 2014-2019 (p.a.)
0.3 %
Average age 2014 (in years)
31
Average volume 2013-2015 (EUR million p.a.)
220
Average development 2014-2019 (p.a.)
Volatility market volume 2014-2019 (SAW)
Average volume 2013-2015 (EUR million p.a.)
Trend


1.9 %
14.1 %
600
Average development 2014-2019 (p.a.)
2.8 %
Volatility market volume 2014-2019 (SAW)
0.2 %

 Boom/strong growth  small growth  stagnation  small decrease  clear decline
Figure 1: Market overview
diesel locomotives in
South/Central America
In the last decade, the market for diesel locomotives grew constantly in the region of
South/Central America, but the growth slightly decelerated in 2014. Especially the two
leading markets of Brazil and Argentina had high procurement figures in recent years. In
other markets, new diesel locomotives were only procured in smaller amounts.
(…)
Market environment/transport market
Infrastructure:
The network density in South and Central America only amounts to 0.005 to 0.010 km per
square km and is therefore quite low compared to other market regions assessed.
(…)
Development of rail transport services South/Central America
2007 until 2014 [Index 2007 = 100]
130
120
110
100
100 = 22 billion pkm
100 = 565 billion tkm
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
pkm passenger rail
2011
2012
2013
2014
tkm freight rail
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 6
Figure 2: Rail transport
performance and
development
South/Central America in
the period 2007 to 2014)
Extract from the study
Rail passenger transport:
(…)
Rail freight transport:
(…)
Installed base/age structure
Due to the low degree of electrification, electric locomotives can mainly be operated in
heavy freight transport in South and Central America by industrial and mine railways. Diesel
locomotives with a number of 5 200 units clearly outweigh the less than 100 electric
locomotives in this region.
(…)
Installed base South/Central America by countries [Number of Units]
Brazil
Argentina
Cuba
Chile
Peru
Other countries
0
Mainline
500
1 000
Shunting
1 500
2 000
Light Shunting
2 500
3 000
3 500
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
The high proportion of freight transport in transport services by rail is also reflected in the
distribution of the field of operation of diesel locomotives. More than 95% are operated in
freight transport. More than 45% of all diesel locomotives have a power of more than
2 000 kW. Railway companies therefore mainly operate diesel locomotives in freight
transport.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 7
Figure 3: Installed base
overview diesel
locomotives in
South/Central America in
2014 by country (number
of locomotives)
Extract from the study
Fleet segments
[~5 200 diesel locomotives]
South/Central America
Application of mainline fleet
[~4 100 diesel locomotives]
South/Central America
21%
4%
96%
79%
Freight transport
Passenger transport
Mainline
Shunting
Light Shunting
Passenger and freight transport
Figure 4:
Segments of the diesel
locomotive fleet/detail
operational fields mainline
locomotives (number of
locomotives)
(…)
The diesel locomotive fleet in South and Central America has an average age of around 31
years.
(…)
Age structure of installed base [Number of Units]
South/Central America
2000
A
Altersstruktur HGV-Züge Osteuropa 2008
1500
1000
500
0
No
info
Before
1975
1975−
1979
Mainline
1980−
1984
1985−
1989
Shunting
1990−
1994
1995−
1999
2000−
2004
2005−
2009
2010−
2014
Light Shunting
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares
The North American manufacturers GE and EMD were the most important manufacturers in
the South American market in the last five years and delivered a high number of heavy
mainline locomotives.
(…)
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 8
Figure 5:
Age structure of installed
base South- and Central
America (Number of Units)
Extract from the study
Market shares of manufacturers 2010 to 2014
South/Central America
5%
2%
6%
GE
Marktanteile Hersteller HGV-Züge Osteuropa 2004
EMD
CSR
17 %
CNR
Other manufacturers
70 %
in total:
~ 420 diesel locomotives
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
(…)
Market volume and market development
The current market volume for new diesel locomotives is around EUR XXX million
p.a.; for after-sales services it is around EUR XXX million p.a.
This market development is influenced by the following drivers:
Trend
Drivers of
procurements
Brief description
Infrastructure
(…)
(…)
(…)
Transport demand
(…)
(…)
(…)
Investment funds
A generally weak economic situation in the region
limits investments. Brazil tries to attract private
investment in railways with new concessions. (…)


Fleet Structure
(…)
(…)
(…)
Relevance
short
term
medium
term
(…)
Important current and planned procurement projects
In recent years, primarily operators in the two most important rail markets of Brazil and
Argentina ordered new diesel locomotives.
(…)
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 9
Figure 6:
Market shares diesel
locomotives South/Central
America in the period
2010–2014 (number of
locomotives)
Extract from the study
Country
Type
Argentina
CKD8G/
CDD8H
Units
20
Power
[kW]
2 200
Delivery
Remarks
2013-2014
In 2013, the first of 20 locomotives supplied by
CNR's Dalian subsidiary entered service in
Argentina.
(…)
Argentina
n/a
20
n/a
2015-2016
In January 2015, CNR Beijing announced the
signing of a contract of 20 diesel-electric
locomotives for Argentina. The locomotives will be
used for the Belgrano railway renovation project.
…
…
…
…
…
….
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 10
Extract from the study
Annex A: Example
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.
(BHEL)
Overview
Company headquarters:
New Delhi (India)
Website:
www.bhel.com
Management:
B Prasada Rao (Chairman & Managing Director)
Employees (2013-14):
47 525
Turnover (2013-14):
EUR 5.1 billion (INR 411 billion)
Profits (2013-14)
EUR 438 million net profit (INR 35 billion)
BHEL was founded 50 years ago and has become the largest energy and infrastructure company in India.
BHEL manufactures more than 180 products which are divided into eight business segments within the
company: Power, Industry, Oil & Gas, Defence, Water, Transmission, Transportation and Renewable.
BHEL’s electric locomotives and the diesel-electric & diesel hydraulic shunting locomotives are mainly
manufactured for the Indian market. However, electric locomotives have also been delivered to customers in Sri
Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Vietnam and Malaysia.
BHEL’s world market shares in locomotive production are relatively low but the company orients itself towards
foreign business. In October 2008, GE Transportation and BHEL signed an agreement for the production diesel
locomotives for Indian Railways (IR). The company currently has only production capacities of around 100
locomotives.
In January 2012, Indian Railways (IR) invited international bids to set up two locomotive factories at Marhaura
and Madhepura in Bihar state. IR hopes to complete the projects as PPP. A joint venture between General
Electric and Bharat Heavy Electricals is competing with Electro-Motive Diesel to produce diesel locomotives at
Marhaura. IR estimates that it will require 800 electric and 1,000 diesel locomotives from the factories. These
contracts could be worth EUR 10 billion (USD 13 billion).
In February 2013, Indian Railways (IR) have joined hands with state-owned BHEL for setting up a modern
Mainline Electric Multiple Unit (MEMU) coach factory in Rajasthan to cater to the growing demand for faster
local and suburban trains. The MEMU trains equipped with higher acceleration capacity are expected to move
faster on electrified tracks and would benefit daily commuters. A MoU was signed between railways and BHEL
here for setting up a EUR 139.8 million (INR 10 billion) state-of-the-art MEMU coach factory in Bhilwara,
Rajasthan, with a capacity of 300 cars p.a. IR estimates that the 15,000 route-km of electrification it plans for the
next 10 years will create a requirement for a further 9,000 EMU cars. However, production is limited by capacity
constraints at the Rail Coach Factory in Kapurthala which currently produces the trains, designated Main Line
Electric Multiple Units by IR.
Production sites (segment)
Jhansi (India)
Important
products
Diesel-electric
& Diesel
hydraulic
locomotives
(India)
Market shares
(2010–2014)
14% (Worldwide)
53% (Asia)
together with DLW
and San
Market positioning / main contracts
In cooperation with and as supplier of the electric drive
components for Alco and DLW, BHEL has manufactured various
diesel locomotive types for the Indian market and for operation
with industrial and port railways. The vehicles can be designed for
broad gauge, metre gauge and narrow gauge. Their power is
between 260kW and 1 910kW.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 11
Extract from the study
Annex B: Example
Germany
Installed Base / Operator
Delivery 2010 – 2014 / Operator
Installed Base / Operator [Number of Units]
Delivery / Operator [Number of Units]
DB AG
DB AG
Thyssen Krupp
VPS
RheinCargo
BASF
MEG
RheinCargo
RBH
Chemion
VPS
Other Operator
Other Operators
0
500
1 000
Mainline
1 500
2 000
Shunting
0
2 500
25
50
75
Mainline
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
100
125
Shunting
Installed Base / Age distribution
Delivery 2010 – 2014 / Market Shares
Installed Base / Age distribution [Number of Units]
Delivery / Market Shares [Number of Units]
150
175
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
2.500
2.000
5%
3%
Voith
4%
Vossloh
EMD
11 %
1.500
ALSTOM
48 %
1.000
Bombardier
Other Manufacturers
500
29 %
In total:
~ 330 D-Locos
0
No
info
Before
1974
19751979
19801984
19851989
Mainline
19901994
Shunting
19951999
20002004
20052009
20102014
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Installed Base / Power installed
Delivery 2010 – 2014 / Power installed
Installed Base / Power installed [Number of Units]
Delivery / Power installed [Number of Units]
9%
<1%
13 %
23%
<1 %
under 1 MW
under 1 MW
1 to < 2 MW
1 to < 2 MW
2 to < 3 MW
2 to < 3 MW
3 to < 5MW
3 to < 5MW
29 %
over 5 MW
68%
In total:
~ 3 600 D-Locos
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
58 %
over 5 MW
In total:
~ 330 D-Locos
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 12
Extract from the study
Annex C: Example
Region
Country
Operator
Type
Units
Delivery
Main supplier
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
V60
3
1956-1956
MaK (Kiel) Jung
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DD (GT26W)
27
1971-1971
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DF (GT26W)
25
1973-1973
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DG (GT26W)
15
1976-1976
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DH (GT22W)
24
1976-1976
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 WDK
(GL18M)
5
1977-1977
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
040 YDA (GL18M)
24
1977-1977
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DJ (U18C)
25
1977-1977
General Electric
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DL (GT26W)
25
1982-1982
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DM (GT26W
HCW-2A)
10
1985-1985
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 YDD (GL18
2C/2M)
5
1989-1989
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
040 DH (GL18B)
5
1990-1990
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
040 DH (GL18B)
8
1993-1993
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
060 DP
(GT26HCW-2)
20
1994-1994
General Motors
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
n.a
3
1995-1995
Ferrovial (local)
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
VTL 500
16
2003-2003
Donelli
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
GT36HCW
14
2007-2008
EMD
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
GT36CW
16
2007-2008
EMD
Africa / Middle
East
Algeria
SNTF
040 D*
16
2009-2009
General Motors
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Freight Wagons – Global Market Trends 13
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