Outlook: The Weather, The Crop, The Risk Elwynn Taylor, Iowa

Outlook: the Weather, the
Crop, the Risk:
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
[email protected]
The VICIOUS CYCLE
Climate
Population
Agriculture
Who will BREAK the CYCLE ?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif
•
El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino
tends to be a Christmas event that may or may
not persist through the Midwest growing
season).
(Oct to date)
October 2009
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
El Niño
To
La Niña
October 2010
to 2012
.
La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
La Niña : Extremes
Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is
likely to be greater during the
next 20 years
Management of RISK is of
increasing importance
Beyond
High risk
Moderate
High
stable period 2
stable period 3
stable period 4
Beyond
137
Know the Risk
• http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west-lafayette/united-states/usin0707
mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/acv
•
•
• http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=INCLIMATE&station
=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100
mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
•
1994 Record high Yield
1995 decimated Yield