K. Gombas: Good practices and lessons learned on Water and

5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
GOOD PRACTICES AND LESSONS LEARNED ON
WATER AND CLIMATE IN THE TISZA RIVER BASIN,
WITH A FOCUS ON FLOOD MANAGEMENT
KÁROLY GOMBÁS
CHAIRMAN
FLOOD PROTECTION EXPERT GROUP (FP-EG)
INTERNATIONAL COMISSION FOR PROTECTION OF THE DANUBE RIVER (ICPDR)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
International Comission for Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
THE MANDATE OF ICPDR
ICPDR has a mandate to design flood risk
management policies and propose respective
measures and is responsible for preparation of
the Flood risk management plan (FRMP) for
the Danube River Basin, so called „level A”.
Flood Protection Expert Group (FP-EG) is
responsible to deal with the issue of
monitoring of the EU Flood Directive
accomplisment and create the FRMP with
comprehensive list of measures.
ICPDR used to have Tisza Group, which now
turns into a sub-basin oriented workspace.
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
THE TISZA SUB-BASIN
Characteristic features:
• Area: 157.000 km2
• Magnitude: 2506-17 m
• Length: 945,7 km
• Q (HU): 47-2610 m3/s
• H(HU): -279 - +1041 cm
• Regime (HU): 1320 cm
• Protected settlements:
1105 pcs in 36.841 km2
embanked floodplain
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
THE UPPER-TISZA CATCHMENT
Characteristic features:
• Annual precipitation:
1600-2000 mm
• Torrent upstream
regimes: 28-36 hrs after
rainfall 8-10 m rise of H
• Q(max) border: 4190 m3/s
• Flood duration in the
middle part: 25-100 days
• Flood forecasting (HU)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
THE UPPER-TISZA CATCHMENT
Between 2002-2012 years 169 flood dike and 85 km bank protection was built.
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
FLOOD PHENOMENA
Between 1970 and 2001 the water level
increased with 1,5 m (Szolnok, HU)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
FLOOD PHENOMENA
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
IN THE SAME TIME…
Károly GOMBÁS
Floods:
• Small
• Significant
• Extraordinary
every 2-3 years
every 5-6 years
every 10-12 years
Excess water:
every 2-3 years
Drought:
every 3-5 years
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
CLAVIER (CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and
Eastern EuRope, 2006-2009, EU FP6 project)
Improvement of the flood warning and forecasting information
system in the Upper-Tisza catchment (2012)
ICPDR Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (2012)
ADAM – Adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Tisza River
Basin: Adaptation to climate change in floodplain management
(2006-2009)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
CLAVIER (CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope,
2006-2009, EU FP6 project, http://www.clavier-eu.org/)
• Meteorological conclusions - Analysing the mean areal precipitation and
temperature values, computed based on the A1B scenario (periods 1961-1990
and 2021-2050), for each of the sub-basins within the Tisza River Basin the
following projections can be made:
• A general increase of the mean annual 2m air temperature for all of the
subbasins, with 1.4 ÷ 1.6 °C, with smaller changes for the spring period
(0.8 ÷ 1.2 °C) and greater changes for the other seasons, especially winter
(1.5 ÷ 2 °C)
• Great spatial variability in tendencies is foreseen for the annual
precipitation with a slight increase up to 3.5% in Upper Tisza
mountainous catchments and overall decrease in other sub-basins with 3
÷ 10 %, while definite increase for winter periods (14 ÷17%) in Upper
Tisza), and general decrease in all other seasons with some exceptions in
the highly elevated parts of the Upper Tisza.
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
CLAVIER (CLimate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope, 2006-2009,
EU FP6 project, http://www.clavier-eu.org/)
•
Hydrological conclusions - Based on the hydrological simulations, the analysis of the
mean seasonal and annual discharges simulated time series show the following impact of
the A1B climate change scenario:
•
Slight increase in Upper Tisza and tributaries (less than 5%);
•
No change or general decrease of the mean annual discharges, down to 15 % for
Central Tisza and southern basins
•
The mean seasonal discharges are increasing only in winter season, in all the
basins but with significant variations (3 ÷ 42 %);
•
For the spring – autumn period, the hydrological simulations indicate a decrease
of the mean discharges for most of the catchments in southern basins between 15 ÷ -20 %
•
Floods: No clear picture can be drawn about possible changes in the flood conditions.
While more frequent winter floods are expected, the decrease of mean flow in some
seasons is not followed by the decrease of flood peaks. Torrential type of flood events
may occur even more frequently, while the frequency of floods with long duration and
large volume may become lower.
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS
Improvement of the flood warning and forecasting information system in
the Upper-Tisza catchment (2012)
• Stacioner approach for 30 years, rising temprature but statistically the
same behavior
• Result: probability of the short precipitation is higher (extreme events!),
but long run rains mainly disappear
• Lower Tisza perspective:
• The probability of the dominantly fluvial flood-resulted melting
snow+rain combination reduces, but the flash-floods in the
mountains become more frequent
• Because of the increasing number of the dry days the riverbed will
possess with more conveyance area when flood discharge comes
• However, extreme events will result in even shorter response time
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
LESSONS LEARNED SO FAR
Problems realized:
•
•
•
•
•
Lack of detailed investigation of
the natural processes
Upstream exposure - downstream
vulnerability
Unproper use of the floodplains
Outdated legislation, old values of
the design flood levels
Lack of research
(HU-institutional background
missing VITUKI)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
ANSWERS GIVEN SO FAR (GOOD PRACTICES)
1. Joint tele-recording hidrological observation system,
collaboration in maintenance
2. 1D modeling of the Tisza and tributaries (HEC-RAS)
3. Diversion of unmanagable discharges to reservoirs: HungaryUkrain reservoir program
4. Enhancing the level of flood protection: harmonized
development of the defence structures
5. Good relationship in border commissions: intensive
discussion and informal connections
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
JOINT TELE-RECORDING HIDROLOGICAL OBSERVATION SYSTEM
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
1D MODELING OF THE TISZA AND TRIBUTARIES (HEC-RAS)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
DIVERSION OF UNMANAGABLE DISCHARGES TO RESERVOIRS:
HUNGARY-UKRAIN RESERVOIR PROGRAM
Construction, and common operation of reservoirs
New Vásárhelyi Plan (VTT):
• Improvement of hydraulic conveyance
• Storage of extreme discharges
• Reconstruction of flood protection structures
(cross-section, subsoil, height)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES
National (HU):
• Scientific investigation and numerical modeling of the Tisza to
reassess regulatory flood levels („MÁSZ”)
• Sustainable floodplain management plans
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
REASSESSMENT OF REGULATORY FLOOD LEVELS IN THE TISZA VALLEY
• A combination of two methods:
– Monte-Carlo simulation of the
hydrodynamics
– Statistics of the water levels at gauge
stations
• Both were evaluated for all river
reaches.
• Uneven quality of data and model
• Resulting RFL:
– At gauge stations: the more
„reliable” value
– Between gauge stations:
interpolation following the
hydrodynamic zmax profiles
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
REASSESSMENT OF REGULATORY FLOOD LEVELS IN THE TISZA VALLEY
• 8000 years of synthetic inflow simulated with a timeseries model, taking into cross-correlation of tributaries
• Maximum flow and water level modelled with HEC-RAS
for all 8000 years, along the whole river system
• HQ1% profiles = from measured annual HQ (often scarce)
• RFL = maximum level of those simulated floods that
locally don’t exceed HQ1%
• International cooperation:
border crossing discharges, tributaries, agreed analyses
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
REASSESSMENT OF REGULATORY FLOOD LEVELS IN THE TISZA VALLEY
m B.f.
Tisza, Kisköre - Titel
93.00
Gauge station
92.00
Upper and lower limits
of the HD simulations
91.00
90.00
New RFL
89.00
Current RFL
88.00
87.00
86.00
85.00
84.00
83.00
Károly GOMBÁS
155.000
165.000
175.000
185.000
195.000
205.000
215.000
225.000
235.000
245.000
255.000
265.000
275.000
285.000
295.000
305.000
315.000
325.000
335.000
345.000
355.000
365.000
375.000
385.000
395.000
fkm
405.000
82.00
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
SUSTAINABLE FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT PLANS (HU)
Classic fluvial flood protection: emerging dikes, forming floodplains with
embankments, dealing with high ground water (excess water)
- limitations: sedimentation, side-arm separation, riverbed lowering, subsoil problems
and seepage, excess water pumping capacity, aerial sensitivity
Retention: creating controlled reservoirs and retention ponds
- limitations: large areas needed, new defense and maintenance lines, volume
Sustainable floodplain management
Aim: keep the water levels on design flood level or lower them
Comprehensive floodplain management, definition of conveyance zones: primary,
secondary, transition, still (legislative changes and official land use limitations)
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES
National:
• Scientific investigation and numerical modeling of the Tisza to
define regulatory flood levels (HU - „RFL”)
• Sustainable floodplain management plans (HU)
Cross-border/international initiatives:
• Continue the reservoir and flood protection programme (UA-HU)
• Keep the coordination in flood risk management
• Danube Strategy
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
Magyar-ukrán közös árvízvédelmi fejlesztési
program
WATER
IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
(A Magyarország és Ukrajna határvizekkel kapcsolatos vízgazdálkodási kérdésekkel foglalkozó 2012.
júniusi XVII. Határvízi Kormánymeghatalmazotti ülésszakon született határozat figyelembe vételével)
CONTINUE THE RESERVOIR AND FLOOD PROTECTION PROGRAMME
Common Hungarian – Ukrainian Flood
Prevention Development Program
• 11 new reservoir, ≈ 300 km dike development,
• 89 pcs water object reconstruction,
• development of the common hydrographic monitoring
and flood forecasting system.
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
FOLLOW-UP ACTIVITIES
ICPDR framework:
• Tisza project: WFD-FD mutually favourable measures to be
realized in the sub-catchment
• Setup the Tisza workspace for WFD-FD purposes
(Supported by the Danube Strategy as well)
• Sediment project: under development (BUTE-BOKU)
•
•
Map with monitoring sites in place for sediment quantity and quality
Established sediment budget, estimated pre- and post measure influences,
numerical models for the Danube and tributaries
• Manual on sustainable sediment management in the Danube river basin,
Guideline for improved planning of sediment related measures
• First Danube River Basin Sediment Management Plan, prioritized measures
• Flood Risk Management Plan of the Danube Basin
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014
5th International Conference
WATER IN THE ALPS - AND BEYOND
Adapting alpine and mountain river basins to climate change
Thank you
for your attention!
[email protected]
WWW.ICPDR.ORG
Károly GOMBÁS
Trento
Sept. 25th – 26th, 2014