3 Aviation Demand Forecast - Harrisburg International Airport

3 Aviation Demand
Forecast
17
Forecasts of aviation demand were
A multi-tiered approach to evaluate passenger demand in South Central Pennsylvania
prepared in support of the Master Plan
for Harrisburg International Airport (the
Airport or HIA), including forecasts of
enplaned passengers, air cargo, based
aircraft, and aircraft operations. These
forecasts are “unconstrained” and, therefore,
do not include specific assumptions about
physical, regulatory, environmental or other
impediments to aviation activity growth.
Using calendar year 2012 as the base year,
annual forecasts were prepared for four
future demand years—2017, 2022, 2027,
and 2032.
1
2
3
4
Select
analytical
tools
Identify key
drivers of HIA
passenger and
cargo demand
Evaluate HIA
unconstrained
demand
Translate
annual demand
forecasts into
aircraft operations
O&D passengers
Passenger load
factor
Catchment area
analysis
Regional
population and
economic factors
(employment and
income)
Trend analysis
Airline service
Average seats per
operation
Air freight and mail
Regression analysis
Cargo tons per
operation
Cost of travel
(airfares, yield,
low cost carrier
service)
Industry analysis
Aircraft fleet mix
Methodology
Exhibit 3-2 The Aviation Forecasting Process
A multi-tiered approach to evaluate
passenger demand in South Central
Pennsylvania was used to create the
aviation demand forecasts. This approach
is summarized in Exhibit 3-2. Four
key elements were particularly
considered
$260
in the preparation of the enplaned
240
passenger forecasts for the Airport:
Airfares at nearby airports affect the
size of the Airport’s catchment area and
passenger traffic. Average airfares at
HIA have historically been higher than
AVERAGE ONE-WAY DOMESTIC AIRFARES
80%
IAD
HIA
220
PHL
200
180
BWI
160
• Evaluation of competing
airport service and external
events
140
100
• Independent forecasts of key
drivers
70
0.5
50
40
0.4
30
0.3
20
0.2
0.1
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Origin-Destination Survey of Airline
Passenger Traffic, Domestic, online database, accessed September 2013.
0.7
0.6
60
10
120
• Airline industry conditions
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONAL
AIRFARES AND HIA PASSENGERS
Millions
• Domestic originating
passengers based on statistical
analysis
at nearby airports. As seen in Exhibit 3-3
(right graphic), when the difference in
airfares between the Airport and BaltimoreWashington International Airport (BWI)
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
0.0
Percent difference between HIA and BWI
domestic one-way airfares
HIA Domestic originating passengers
Exhibit 3-3 Airfares at Nearby Airports Affect the Size of the HIA Catchment Area and Passenger Traffic
180
M A
S
T
E
R
P
L
A
N
Har r isburg I nter national A i r p or t
—Diverse Economy
Business and
Financial
Services
Healthcare,
Medical Research,
and Education
Information
Technology
Biotechnology
and Life Sciences
Advanced
Materials and
Manufacturing
Food Processing
and Agribusiness
independent of competing airports.
The strength of each route and origindestination is evaluated. Exhibit 3-5
shows all markets to/from the Airport
that account for 1% or more of the
Airport’s passengers. Continued
high load factors and the ability of
the airlines serving HIA to add seat
capacity is necessary to support
continued growth in passenger traffic
and airline service.
Logistics
Exhibit 3-4 HIA Catchment Area’s Diverse Economy Characteristics
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Community
and Economic Development, www.newpa.com.
Seattle
Boston
Minneapolis-St. Paul
increases, passenger levels at the Airport
decrease. Nevertheless, the Airport’s role
as a primary commercial service airport
serving Pennsylvania’s state capital and
business center is important to future airline
traffic growth and will support the Airport’s
share of Catchment Area passengers.
The greater Harrisburg area has a diverse
economy, including the markets shown in
Exhibit 3-4. The population and economy
in the Airport’s catchment area are growing
faster than the Commonwealth average,
which will support continued growth in
passenger traffic at HIA. Additionally, the
strength of the Airport’s market is evaluated,
Milwaukee
Chicago
San
Francisco
Detroit
Cleveland
New York
Philadelphia
Indianapolis
Las
Vegas
Los Angeles
Denver
Kansas City
St. Louis
Washington, D.C.
Cincinnati
Charlotte
Phoenix
San Diego
Atlanta
Dallas/Fort Worth
Orlando
Houston
Tampa
LEGEND
Origin-destination passengers.
The width of the lines is
proportional to the share of
domestic origin-destination
passengers to each market.
Markets with scheduled nonstop
airline service
Markets without scheduled
nonstop airline service
Ft. Myers
Fort Lauderdale
Note: Markets shown accounted for 1% or more of total
inbound and outbound passengers on scheduled airlines
at Harrisburg International Airport in a 10% sample for calendar
year 2012, except for Boston, Cleveland,
New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.
Sources: U.S. Department of Transportation, Origin-Destination
Survey of Airline Passenger Traffic; Domestic,
Databank 1A, online database, accessed
September 2013. OAG Aviation Worldwide Ltd.,
OAG Analyser database, accessed September 2013.
Exhibit 3-5 HIA Is an Orgin-Destination Airport
C ha p t er 3:
Aviation Demand Forecast
19
Table 1
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION IN THE AIRPORT PRIMARY AREA IN 2012
Airport Service Region
Metropolitan Statistical Area
in Pennsylvania
As shown in Exhibit 3-6 and the map on
page 7, the geographical area served by
the Airport (“Airport primary area”) consists
of Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin,
Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York counties
in Pennsylvania. According to the U.S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, the population of the Airport
primary area was 1.9 million in 2012,
accounting for about 15% of Pennsylvania’s
total population of 12.8 million. Because
economic growth and activity within this
area stimulate a significant portion of
passenger demand at the Airport, statistics
for the Airport primary area were used to
evaluate certain long-term and future
airline traffic trends at the Airport.
S
T
Percent of
total
Dauphin
Cumberland
Perry
269,665
238,614
45,701
553,980
14.2%
12.5
2.4
29.1%
Lancaster
York-Hanover
g
y
Chambersburg-Waynesboro
Lebanon
Gettysburg
Lancaster
York
Franklin
Lebanon
Adams
526,823
437,846
151,275
135,251
101,482
27.6%
23.0
7.9
7.1
5.3
1,906,657
100.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, www.census.gov,
accessed September 2013.
E
Enplaned passengers
(millions)
Exhibit 3-6 Population in Airport Primary Area by County
The passenger forecasts for HIA were
developed using a variety of analytical tools,
including trend analysis, regression models,
and market share analysis, to address the key
components of aviation activity (i.e., mainline
airlines, low cost carriers, and regional
airlines). In addition, recent trends in airline
service in South Central Pennsylvania,
particularly for mainline, low cost carrier,
and regional service, were considered in the
preparation of the passenger forecasts. As
shown on Exhibit 3-7, enplaned passengers
at the Airport are forecast to increase to
861,400 in 2032, an average increase of 1.4%
per year between 2012 and 2032.
M A
Population
Harrisburg-Carlisle
Airport primary area
Enplaned Passengers
200
County
Figure 1
HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ENPLANED PASSENGERS
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Historical
CAGR 1990 - 2012 = 0.3%
Forecast
CAGR 2012 - 2032 = 1.4%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Mainline airlines
Low cost airlines
Regional airlines
Exhibit 3-7 Historical and Forecast Enplaned Passengers
Air Cargo
The air cargo forecasts were developed
based on a review of recent trends and an
evaluation of key components of air cargo
activity (i.e., enplaned and deplaned cargo
R
P
L
A
N
for all-cargo and passenger airlines). Total air
cargo (enplaned and deplaned) is forecast to
increase to 69,000 tons in 2032, an average
increase of 1.5% per year between 2012 and
2032, as shown on Exhibit 3-8.
Har r isburg I nter national A i r p or t
Aircraft Operations
80
Total aircraft operations include air carrier,
air taxi and commuter, general aviation,
and military takeoffs and landings. The
forecasts of total aircraft operations at HIA
were derived from the forecasts of passenger
and cargo activity for the Airport using
assumptions about the average aircraft size
in terms of seats per departure and enplaned
passenger load factors (percentage of seats
occupied, on average) for future years. In
addition, the future aircraft fleet plans of the
airlines serving HIA were also considered
based on available information. As shown
on Exhibit 3-9, total aircraft operations at the
Airport are forecast to increase to 58,500 in
2032, an average increase of 0.2% per year
between 2012 and 2032.
60
Air Cargo
(thousands of tons)
70
Figure 2
HISTORICAL AND FORECAST AIR CARGO
Historical
CAGR 1990 - 2012 = 1.5%
Forecast
CAGR 2012 - 2032 = 1.5%
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Exhibit 3-8 Historical and Forecast Air Cargo by Tonnage
140
Aircraft operations
(thousands)
120
Figure 3
HISTORICAL AND FORECAST TOTAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS
Historical
CAGR 1990 - 2012 = -3.7%
Forecast
CAGR 2012 - 2032 = 0.2%
100
80
60
40
20
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
Air carrier
Air taxi
General aviation
Military
Exhibit 3-9 Historical and Forecast Aircraft Operations
C ha p t er 3:
Aviation Demand Forecast
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