Spring 2014

Transcription

Spring 2014

Sales • Delivery • Training
Citation Mustang
Eclipse 500
Spring 2014
Market Update
Phenom 100
Citation CJ1+/M2
Owner-Flown
Turbine Edition
Phenom 300
Citation CJ2+
Piper Meridian
Citation CJ3
TBM 700/850/900
Citation CJ4
Pilatus PC-12
Spring 2014 • jetAVIVA • 3753 Howard Hughes Parkway #200, Las Vegas, NV 89169 • +1.702.551.2055 • [email protected]
Spring 2014 Market Update: Owner-Flown Turbine Edition
Table of Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Citation Mustang . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Citation M2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Citation CJ1+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Citation CJ2+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Citation CJ3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Citation CJ4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Phenom 100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Phenom 300 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Eclipse 500 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Light Jet Liquidity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
jetAVIVA Light Jet Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11-12
Piper Meridian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Daher-Socata TBM 700 & 850 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Pilatus PC-12 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Single Engine Turboprop Liquidity Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
jetAVIVA Turboprop Inventory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Owner-Flown
Turbine Market Overview
Dear Reader,
Understanding large area weather systems and their associated
pressure gradients is a skill that most pilots fail to every fully master.
Being that I spend much of time flying in the flight levels in the
Southwestern part of the United States, I have attempted to put
to use common weather patterns seen in the region to my benefit.
When I have an eastbound flight planned from my home airport in
Los Angeles during the spring and winter months, one of my favorite
after secretly developing the 330-knot single-engine French-
weather patterns is the formation of a low-pressure systems forming
built machine for the past two years. With major improvements in
just to the north of Southern California. Why, you may ask? With
human factors and performance, the TBM900 has already proven
the center of the low-pressure system just to the north of Southern
to be a winner with a backlog pushing into 2015 for many of their
California, and the counter-clockwise rotating nature of low-pressure
distributors—despite the hefty $3.7M price tag.
systems, I am commonly greeted by significant tailwinds that
help make my trip that much quicker to wherever it may be that
I’m headed.
During the same period, Textron, the parent company of Cessna
made some exciting news by finalizing their acquisition of Hawker/
Beechcraft, pulling the acquired company and Cessna under the
I use the above example of watching familiar patterns to predict
new umbrella of Textron Aviation. Add to this the successful first
possible trends to illustrate what we’re seeing happen in the single
deliveries of the M2 and the announcement of the G3000-equipped
engine turbo-prop and light jet markets. A low-pressure system is
CJ3+; lots of exciting work coming out of Kansas. Of particular note
forming just above our eastbound directed flight and tail winds are
is the striking reduction in inventory since the end of Q4 2013 in the
finally starting to kick in.
pre-owned Citation market. Nearly 5% of the available inventory has
While the first quarter is typically the slowest period of the sales
year, 2014 has started off with record high transaction volume and
either sold or been pulled off the market in the last quarter – buoying
most of the relatively newer pre-owned values.
record low inventory numbers that haven’t been seen since the
As we head into the Spring—notwithstanding any major energy or
years preceding the global financial crisis. Add to the mix a host of
economic hiccups, if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s time to fuel up
new product announcements and first deliveries, and a vibrant new
the jet, hit the starter, and head East.
landscape sits in front of us.
Blue skies,
A few major highlights of note: Socata, in an act of marketing genius,
Cyrus Sigari
announced and delivered their brand new TBM900 in March
CEO, jetAVIVA
About jetAVIVA
The jetAVIVA Team
Ben Marcus
Co-founder
Cyrus Sigari
Co-founder
Greg Oswald
VP, Phenom Market
David Lee
VP, Mustang Market
Doug Bornstein
VP, TBM Market
Andrew Gallagher
Manager, Sales Operations
Jade Duckart
Senior Sales Associate
Marcio Lucchese
Manager, Phenom Acceptance
& Delivery Services
Scott Horton
General Counsel
Derrick Schmidt
Director of Maintenance
& Technical Services
Brian Singer
Controller
Michelle D’Ambra
Office Manager
jetAVIVA provides unmatched
expertise and client focus to those
purchasing and selling owner-flown
turbine aircraft. From cutting edge
aircraft marketing techniques to
aircraft training, acquisition, and
technical evaluation, only jetAVIVA
has the knowledge, understanding
and breadth of experience to
perfectly match the exact turbine
aircraft with the mission requirements
of today’s owner/operator.
1
Light Jets
Cessna
To say that the Cessna leadership team has been busy recently
would be an understatement. In addition to the entry into service of
the M2, announcing the CJ3+, successfully closing the acquisition
of Hawker/Beechcraft, Cessna also managed to complete first
flight on their new mid-sized jet, the Citation Latitude.
As we review the Citation market, we continue to see bright spots
that we haven’t seen in a long, long time. In jetAVIVA’s printing of
the Winter edition of this report, there were approximately 500
pre-owned Citations listed for sale on Controller.com. At printing
of this Spring report, the current pre-owned Citation inventory on
Controller.com sits at below 470 units. A significant reduction in
just three months. With the factory having significantly reduced
the outflow of new production over recent months, the preowned market has had some time to enjoy the pressure relief
and experience non-cyclical firming of the market. The following
sections dive deeper into some of the specific markets.
Mustang
The big trend for Q1 has been one of opportunistic enthusiasm in the
Mustang market. Buyers on the periphery had been circling the market
and looking for the right time to jump in; some made the move, some
are still waiting. Naysayers predicted current Mustang owners would
be abandoning the aircraft in droves as M2 deliveries began, but we
saw several mitigating factors that kept pricing levels stable.
First and foremost, Cessna has done an admirable job of metering
new production to meet demand. The effective scarcity of attractively
priced new aircraft caused a 30% spike in pre-owned market
transactions as compared to Q1 2013. Despite a stack up of inventory
in the first part of the quarter, current inventory levels are the lowest
they have been in quite some time. We expect activity in the Mustang
market to continue the upward trend this quarter and predict healthy
transaction levels.
The second factor influencing the market has been the price
point itself. As the median pre-owned transaction price fell below
$2,000,000, the Mustang has become attainable for a new group
of buyers. Buyers at this price point were originally limited to legacy
jets or modern single-engine turboprops. But now—with a sub-$2M
Mustang—the value proposition is compelling to a significantly larger
pool that is comfortable with a $1.XXM price, but not a $2.XXM price.
This trend will have a positive “trickle up” impact on the balance of the
Citation line in the years to come.
Mustang: Average Value
Q1
20
14
Citation Mustang:
6% For Sale
Citation Mustang: Spring 2014 Market
2
Used Aircraft Listings
27
Total Fleet
446
Percent of Fleet for Sale
6.1%
Average Ask Price (US Dollars)
$2,109,000
Average Airframe Total Time
571
Average Days on Market
173
Pre-Owned Transactions (Q1)
13
M2/CJ1+
Cessna’s newest certified Citation, the M2, has seen a great
start to its career. jetAVIVA CEO was on hand for delivery of
the first three M2s delivered to clients of the firm, providing
an opportunity to get an early first hand look at what the new
G3000 equipped, 8-place Citation can and will do. To learn
more about jetAVIVA’s first impressions of the M2—please visit
our website to see Cyrus Sigari’s pilot report published in AOPA
pilot magazine.
By the end of Q1, 23 M2s had been delivered to retail customers,
with almost all of them going to USA based owner/operators.
Many owners transitioning to the M2 have come out of Mustangs
but also TBM850s and various turbo-prop aircraft.
Light Jets
As the M2 is still fairly new, there has yet to be any development
in the pre-owned market. New M2s are selling for $4.5M+.
The first quarter of 2014 was relatively slow for the CJ1+ market
with only three pre-owned transactions occurring. Pricing for
the CJ1+ continues from last quarter with units trading in the
mid $2Ms to high $2Ms depending on pedigree. With the M2
getting more and more attention, buyers are beginning to
become more and more aware of the value of buying a preowned CJ1+. Despite not having the G3000 cockpit and some
of the other upgrades inherent in the M2—for approximately
$2M less capital deployment, operators are experiencing very
similar operational capability.
CJ/CJ1/CJ1+: Average Value
Citation CJ:
14% For Sale
Q4
2
Q1 013
20
14
Citation CJ1:
12% For Sale
Citation CJ/CJ1/CJ1+: Spring 2014 Market
CJ
CJ1
CJ1+
48
24
9
Total Fleet
353
197
102
13.6%
12.2%
8.8%
$1,170,000
$1,980,000
$2,620,000
2,767
2,638
677
342
314
290
11
6
3
Citation CJ1+:
9% For Sale
3
Light Jets
CJ2+
In Q1 of 2014, the future of the CJ2+ became a little bit clearer.
Cessna announced that the CJ2+ will no longer be produced,
however current owners will have the opportunity to upgrade
their aircraft to a G3000 cockpit with Cessna’s new “Alpine
Edition” CJ2+—essentially delivering new paint, new interior,
new cockpit, and new wiring to a ProLine 21 equipped jet for
approximately $1M in upgrade cost. The above being said, the
CJ2+ market has stayed relatively consistent over the last few
quarters with just 12 units out of the 230 units built up for sale,
down from 16 units last quarter. Approximately half of the CJ2+s
that are for sale are in non-USA markets. The majority of the
non-USA aircraft for sale are based in Europe. In general we are
continue to see CJ2+s trading in the high $3M to low $4M range.
With the limited number of new aircraft coming to market, we
see the CJ2+ continuing to be bolstered.
CJ2/CJ2+: Average Value
Citation CJ2:
10% For Sale
Citation CJ2+:
5% For Sale
Q2
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q2
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
0
Citation CJ2/CJ2+: Spring 2014 Market
CJ2
CJ2+
24
12
Total Fleet
238
220
10.1%
5.5%
$2,865,000
$4,483,000
2,861
878
317
291
5
4
4
CJ3
One of the biggest pieces of news out of Wichita this year
was the announcement of the CJ3+, providing a bit of a facelift to the tremendously successful CJ3 product line. The new
CJ3+ has the upgraded Garmin G3000 cockpit along with the
upgraded seats and interior appointments found in the new M2.
First deliveries of the new $8.2M CJ3+ are expected to hit in Q3/
Q4 of 2014. Meanwhile, the ProLine 21 equipped pre-owned CJ3
market has remained relatively stable, with a consistent amount
Light Jets
of inventory available from Q3 to Q4. Demand for lightly used,
low-time pre-owned units continue to increase, and supply in
that quadrant of the inventory matrix continues to dwindle.
CJ3s are trading from the low $4Ms to low $5Ms. With a 417
knot cruise speed, FL450 cruise capability, seating for up to
10 occupants, efficient fuel burns, and 1800+ mile range, a preowned CJ3 continues to be the best bang for the buck available
for $5M or less.
CJ3: Average Value
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q2
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q2
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q4
20
04
Q2
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q2
20
06
Q4
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q2
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q2
20
09
Q4
20
09
Citation CJ3:
7% For Sale
Citation CJ3: Spring 2014 Market
28
Total Fleet
408
6.9%
$4,778,000
1,147
180
6
5
Light Jets
CJ4
Cessna continues to deliver an impressive number of CJ4s
through the first quarter, with seven new aircraft delivered and
only seven pre-owned aircraft available for purchase out of the
150+ total units in operation. With the CJ4 being the largest,
fastest of the single pilot Citations, there isn’t a clear upgrade
path for these operators, reducing the likelihood of current CJ4
owners migrating out of their birds. A handful of pre-owned
CJ4s have traded hands since first production, with prices in the
high $6M to low $7M range. These low transactions volumes are
typical in the first few years after a model’s introduction.
New CJ4 Deliveries By Quarter
20
14
Q1
20
13
Q4
Q3
20
13
Citation CJ4:
4% For Sale
Citation CJ4: Spring 2014 Market
6
Total Fleet
150
4.0%
$7,279,000
410
OEM Deliveries (Q1)
8
1
6
Phenom 100
Phenom 100 sales slowed dramatically in the first quarter of
2014. The reduction in transaction volume has, in large part,
come with the stabilization of the Euro and European economy.
Europe was an exporting hotbed for Phenom 100s throughout
2013, with almost all of them landing in North America. This
is good news for current Phenom 100 owners as prices have
started to stabilize for high pedigree aircraft.
Embraer recently delivered the 300th Phenom 100, which is
a milestone for the active fleet. Only five (5) of all delivered
Phenom 100s traded hands in Q1, representing a mere 1.7%
of the total fleet. Of those five, four (4) were traded between
Light Jets
North American buyers and sellers. Continuing into Q2/Q3,
we anticipate sales prices will range in the low to mid $2Ms for
2009 aircraft, mid $2Ms for 2010 aircraft, high $2Ms for 2011
aircraft, high $2Ms to low $3Ms for 2012 aircraft, and low to mid
$3Ms for 2013 aircraft.
With Phenom 300 pre-owned sales having picked up steam in
Q1 (read more in the next section), it will be interesting to see
how many 100s owners make the transition to the Phenom 300
for more payload and range. We’ll report more on that in our
Summer Edition of our Market Update.
Phenom 100: Average Value
$3,700,000
Phenom 100:
8% For Sale
$3,580,000
$3,460,000
$3,340,000
$3,220,000
$3,100,000
$2,980,000
$2,860,000
$2,740,000
20
09
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q4
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q2
Q1
20
08
20
08
Q4
Q2
Q3
20
08
$2,620,000
Embraer Phenom 100: Spring 2014 Market
23
Total Fleet
304
7.6%
$2,764,500
645
126
5
7
Light Jets
Phenom 300
Four (4) used Phenom 300s traded hands in the first quarter
of 2014, and our prediction on price made in our Q4 2013
report turned out to be accurate. We’re seeing 2010 model year
airplanes selling in the low to mid $6Ms, 2011s in the high $6Ms
to low $7Ms, 2012s trading in the mid to high $7Ms, and 2013s
in the high $7Ms to low $8Ms. There are numerous variances in
optional equipment, history, and condition between airplanes,
so there are outliers from these values depending on all of this.
Until recently, the Phenom 300 market was moving at a very
slow crawl, with only a few airplanes coming to market each
year and trading hands. The pace in the first quarter of 2014 has
picked up to a brisk walk. This is the fourth year of ownership
of many Phenom 300 owners, and some of them are ready to
move up to their next airplane. Others are selling their existing
Phenom 300s to purchase a new one with the Garmin G3000based Prodigy Touch cockpit and side-facing divan option. It is
very rare to find a Phenom 300 owner that doesn’t absolutely
love his or her airplane.
Phenom 300: Average Value
$8,200,000
Phenom 300:
5% For Sale
$8,137,500
$8,075,000
$8,012,500
$7,950,000
$7,887,500
$7,825,000
$7,762,500
20
14
Q1
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q1
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q2
Q1
20
12
20
11
Q4
Q3
20
11
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q1
20
10
20
10
Q4
Q3
20
10
Q2
Q1
20
10
$7,700,000
Embraer Phenom 300: Spring 2014 Market
9
Total Fleet
190
4.7%
$7,830,000
882
92
4
8
Eclipse 500
It was an exciting first quarter for the Eclipse community with
Eclipse Aerospace delivering the first Eclipse 550s to retail
buyers. The 550s come with some exciting new features,
most of which should become retrofitable to Eclipse 500s via
STCs, including anti-skid brakes, auto-throttles, and synthetic
vision technology.
The Eclipse 500 pre-owned market is comprised of submarkets
determined mainly by the installed avionics versions—AVIO
version 1.0 (original models), v1.3, v1.5, v1.7, v2.06 (IFMS), and
Total Eclipses. The Total Eclipses are factory refurbished 500s
with full factory warranties, and have been received well by
the market. Overall transaction volume has remained mostly
unchanged from year over year from Q1 2013, with seven (7)
Light Jets
500s trading hands. Values have remained on a steady decline
from 2013, and the non-upgraded models—those with AVIO
v1.0-1.7—have taken the biggest hit as more IFMS and Total
Eclipse have become available in the low to mid $1Ms. This has,
in turn, driven the values of v1.7 aircraft below the $1M mark.
As we look forward into the coming quarters, we expect to see
the non-upgraded models continue to drop in value, while IFMS
and Total Eclipses may see some stabilization in the low $1Ms.
We anticipate the continued deliveries of 550s will continue
to build buyer confidence in the company, and thus, bolster
transaction volume.
Eclipse 500: Average Value
$1,700,000
Eclipse 500:
13% For Sale
$1,630,000
Total Eclipse
$1,560,000
$1,490,000
Avio IFMS
$1,420,000
$1,350,000
$1,280,000
Avio 1.7
$1,210,000
$1,140,000
$1,070,000
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
$1,000,000
Eclipse 500: Spring 2014 Market
All Eclipse Models
34
Total Fleet
262
13.0%
$1,124,920
518
316
7
9
Light Jets
Light Jet – Percent of Fleet for Sale
Light Jet Liquidity Index
jetAVIVA created the Liquidity
Index as an informative tool. This
measure of relative “liquidity” for
a particular aircraft provides one
indication of a markets direction.
In other words, looking at recent
Light Jet – Percent of Fleet Sold Q1 2014
sales in comparison to the number
4.0%
of sellers is an indicator of supply,
3.5%
demand and subsequently pricing.
3.0%
This is typically correlated to how
2.5%
quickly and how much an aircraft
2.0%
can sell for, independent of all
1.5%
other factors. By no means is this
1.0%
the only factor one should consider
0.5%
when transacting in any market.
0.0%
Light Jet – Liquidity Q1 2014
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
10
0.00%
Light Jet Inventory Currently for Sale by jetAVIVA
Light Jets
Visit our website at www.jetAVIVA.com for additional details, photos, and videos.
2010 Embraer Phenom 300 SN 50500031
Total Time: 635 Hours
Details: Synthetic Vision – TCAS II – Iridium Sat Phone
Enrolled in EEC and ESP
2010 Cessna Citation CJ4 SN 525C–0002
Total Time: 1,400 Hours
Details: Single Owner – Dual FMS – Two place forward
Divan – Flawless Paint & Interior
2005 Cessna Citation CJ3 SN 525B-0001
Details: Mark VIII EGPWS – TAP Elite – TCAS II
XM Weather – 2011 Paint and 2010 Interior
2006 Cessna Citation CJ1+ SN 525–0609
Details: Mark VIII EGPWS – TAP Elite – ProParts
Jepp Charts – HF Provisions – No Damage History
2006 Cessna Citation CJ1+ SN 525-0615
Details: Mark V EGPWS – TAP Elite – ProParts – TCAS I
Iridium Sat Phone – HF Provisions
2009 Embraer Phenom 100 SN 500-00015
Details: Two owners since new – California based – G1000
Dual Mode S Transponders – Radar – Premium Pax door
11
Light Jets
Light Jet Inventory Currently for Sale by jetAVIVA
2007 Cessna Citation Mustang SN 510-0022
Details: TAS Traffic – SVT – ADF – Sat Phone provisions
PowerAdvantage+ and ProParts
2010 Cessna Citation Mustang SN 510-0330
Details: Synthetic Vision – TAS Traffic – 40 cubic ft O2
bottle – Professionally flown/operated
2008 Cessna Citation Mustang SN 510–0105
Details: Brand New Paint – All ProAdvantage Programs
SVT – TCAS – XM Radio – No Damage History
1993 Cessna Citation V SN 560–0225
Details: Refurbished V with AdViz Glass
Cockpit – 10 seats – Increased MGTOW
Mid life engines
1980 Cessna Citation II SN 550-0175
Details: WAAS – TCAS II – TAWS – Garmin panel
Freon air – Sierra Mods – Belted flushing lav
1979 Cessna Citation ISP SN 501–0130
12
Details: WAAS – TAS Traffic – EGPWS
Satellite WX – Sat Phone – RVSM capable
Piper Meridian
The first quarter of 2014 was a busy one for the Meridian market
with 14 aircraft trading hands. Interestingly, though, transaction
volume was actually down slightly from Q1 2013 when there were
15 transactions. The original model Meridians—those delivered
from the factory with the Meggitt avionics—dominated in terms
of transaction volume, accounting for six of the 14 total sales.
There were four (4) pre-owned G1000 transactions in Q1, and
while that may seem like a small number, that represents double
the number of transactions from Q1 2013 when there were
only two (2) G1000 transactions. Average selling prices have
remained unchanged from 2013, sitting between the mid $1.4Ms
to the high $1.8Ms, depending mostly on age and hours.
Avidyne-equipped Meridians saw a dramatic drop in transaction
volume compared to Q1 2013, with four (4) aircraft selling in 2014
versus eight (8) in 2013. Average pricing, however, remained
fairly flat this past quarter, hovering in the mid $900Ks to mid
$1.2Ms range.
Sellers of the original model Meridians enjoyed price stabilization
that continued from Q4 2013, and even some indications of
values increasing. We continue to see a number of transactions
in this segment driven by the popularity of the Garmin G500/
G600 retrofit; many buyers purchase the older aircraft to
retrofit avionics. Pricing for Meggitt-equipped Meridians has
most recently ranged from low $700Ks to the mid $900Ks,
while G500/G600 Meridians have traded in the mid $800Ks
to $1M. A new sub-segment is also developing within these
older airframes: those with the
Garmin G950 STC developed
Meridian Total:
by Cutter Aviation. A buyer
7% For Sale
can expect to pay upwards
of $1.2M and above for a fully
refurbished G950 Meridian.
Single Engine Turboprops
Meridian: Average Value
$2,100,000
$1,965,000
G1000
$1,830,000
Meggitt Equipped:
8% For Sale
$1,695,000
Avidyne
$1,560,000
Meggitt
$1,425,000
$1,290,000
$1,155,000
Avidyne Equipped:
7% For Sale
$1,020,000
$885,000
Q3
2
Q 4 001
2
Q 1 001
20
Q 2 02
2
Q 3 002
2
Q 4 002
20
Q 1 02
2
Q 2 003
2
Q 3 003
2
Q 4 003
20
Q 1 03
2
Q 2 004
2
Q 3 004
2
Q 4 004
20
Q 1 04
2
Q 2 005
2
Q 3 005
2
Q 4 005
20
Q 1 05
20
Q 2 06
2
Q 3 006
2
Q 4 006
20
Q 1 06
2
Q 2 007
2
Q 3 007
2
Q 4 007
2
Q 1 007
20
Q 2 08
2
Q 3 008
2
Q 4 008
20
Q 1 08
2
Q 2 009
2
Q 3 009
2
Q 4 009
20
Q 1 09
2
Q 2 010
2
Q 3 010
2
Q 4 010
20
Q 1 10
2
Q 2 011
2
Q 3 011
2
Q 4 011
2
Q 1 011
20
Q 2 12
2
Q 3 012
2
Q 4 012
20
Q 1 12
2
Q 2 013
2
Q 3 013
2
Q 4 013
20
Q 1 13
20
14
$750,000
Meridian: Spring 2014 Market
All Meridian
Meggitt
Avidyne
G1000
39
16
12
8
Total Fleet
521
201
179
143
7.5%
8.0%
6.7%
5.6%
$1,217,590
$857,415
$1,206,000
$1,770,000
1,116
1,731
972
257
141
152
178
113
14
6
4
4
G1000 Equipped:
6% For Sale
13
TBM 700, 850 & 900
The first quarter of 2014 was an exciting time for the TBM world
with the introduction of the TBM 900. The veteran, proven
airframe got some major upgrades, notably: Higher cruise
speed of 330 knots, single lever throttle control, winglets,
automatic pressurization, new Hartzell 5-bladed composite prop,
completely redesigned tail section, carbon fiber cowlings, newly
designed exhaust stacks, and more…
Historically, the introduction of a new model has affected the
inventory levels of the replacement model. We saw this in 2008
when the G1000 replaced the Legacy TBM 850, and thus, the
inventory levels of Legacy 850s increased. As of this writing, we
are seeing the same occurrence, with 13 G1000 850s for sale
(up from 10 in late December 2013), as current owners move up.
Socata announced that they already have orders on the books
for 40+ aircraft and plan to build 50 aircraft this year. While
we anticipate values in the G1000 TBMs will start to decrease
this year, the pace of deliveries of new 900s should help keep
inventory levels from skyrocketing, therefore keeping values
from dropping dramatically.
TBM: Average Value
The TBM market overall is robust with 20 TBMs of all models having
changed hands in Q1 2014. Current pricing still has G1000 aircraft in
the $2.2-2.9M range, depending mainly upon year of manufacture,
total number of hours, pedigree, and maintenance history. The
Legacy market remains strong, with the average well maintained
Legacy TBM 850 in the $1.7-$1.9M range.
The inventory levels of the C2, B, and A models remain small, with only
seven C2s, eight B models, and eight A models for sale worldwide.
An average C2 will still fetch somewhere in the mid $1M range. We
see values higher for aircraft having upgrades like Garmin G600
and Garmin GTN 750 navigators. The
B market continues to command
TBM 700A/B:
selling prices in the $1.2M-$1.4M
10% For Sale
range. The A market aircraft can be
bought by a retail customer in the
$850,000- $1.2M range. The key
ingredient here is going to be engine
times. Also, the diligent buyer needs
to check maintenance history on
older airframes to ensure there is no
deferred work.
$3,200,000
TBM 850 (G1000)
$2,970,000
TBM 700C2:
8% For Sale
$2,740,000
$2,510,000
TBM 850 (Legacy)
$2,280,000
TBM 700C2
$2,050,000
$1,820,000
TBM 850 Legacy:
11% For Sale
$1,590,000
TBM 700A/B
$1,360,000
$1,130,000
Q2
2
Q 3 000
2
Q 4 000
20
Q 1 00
2
Q 2 001
2
Q 3 001
2
Q 4 001
2
Q 1 001
2
Q 2 002
2
Q 3 002
2
Q 4 002
2
Q 1 002
2
Q 2 003
20
Q 3 03
2
Q 4 003
2
Q 1 003
20
Q 2 04
2
Q 3 004
2
Q 4 004
20
Q 1 04
2
Q 2 005
2
Q 3 005
20
Q 4 05
2
Q 1 005
2
Q 2 006
20
Q 3 06
2
Q 4 006
2
Q 1 006
2
Q 2 007
2
Q 3 007
20
Q 4 07
2
Q 1 007
2
Q 2 008
20
Q 3 08
2
Q 4 008
2
Q 1 008
20
Q 2 09
2
Q 3 009
2
Q 4 009
20
Q 1 09
2
Q 2 010
2
Q 3 010
20
Q 4 10
20
Q 1 10
2
Q 2 011
2
Q 3 011
20
Q 4 11
2
Q 1 011
2
Q 2 012
20
Q 3 12
2
Q 4 012
2
Q 1 012
20
Q 2 13
2
Q 3 013
2
Q 4 013
2
Q 1 013
20
14
$900,000
TBM: Spring 2014 Market
14
700A/B
700C2
800L
850G
19
8
10
14
Total Fleet
199
98
87
237
9.5%
8.2%
11.5%
5.9%
$1,154,000
$1,597,650
$1,906,600
$2,706,900
2,879
1,512
1,414
644
147
61
163
126
8
5
1
7
TBM 850 G1000:
6% For Sale
Pilatus PC-12
Yet again, Pilatus masterfully controlled supply in the PC12 market resulting in stable, if not increasing, prices during
the first quarter of the year. Truth be told, the story remains
the same– supply is low, demand is high. Buyers looking for
bargains on quality aircraft continue to be stymied by the lack
of inventory. There are, and will always be, several high-time,
poorly kept aircraft that sit on the market at deceptively low
prices, but the supply side of quality aircraft remains elusive.
The Garmin Glass Cockpit (G600) is now an available retrofit
into the legacy /45 and /47 aircraft. This popular system will
breathe new life into the pre-owned market for a generation
of buyers that have been “raised” on the Garmin avionics. We
suspect that this will pull in a new segment of buyers that were
otherwise unwilling to explore the PC-12 marketplace.
For the legacy /45 market, we continue to see prices for
1996-2000 model year aircraft in the mid to high $1M range.
The 2000-2003 models are in the high $1Ms to low $2Ms, and
2003-2005 models are in the low to mid $2Ms. We’re seeing the
/47s trade in the mid to high $2Ms.
As Pilatus continues to restrain its PC-12/NG production, we
expect the “NGs” to continue with their high-demand ratings
and prices for early 2008-2009 NGs to be in the low $3Ms;
2010-2011s to be in the mid $3Ms; 2012-2013 models are in the
high $3Ms, which is largely unchanged from last year.
Pilatus: Average Value
PC-12 45:
2.5% For Sale
$4,300,000
$4,040,000
PC-12NG
$3,780,000
$3,520,000
$3,260,000
PC-12 47
$3,000,000
$2,740,000
PC-12 45
$2,480,000
PC-12 47:
4% For Sale
$2,220,000
$1,960,000
20
00
20
00
Q2
20
01
Q4
20
01
Q2
20
02
Q4
20
02
Q2
20
03
Q4
20
03
Q2
20
04
Q4
20
04
Q2
20
05
Q4
20
05
Q2
20
06
Q4
20
06
Q2
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q2
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q2
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q2
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q2
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q2
20
12
Q4
20
12
Q2
20
13
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
14
Q4
9
9
Q2
199
199
Q4
8
8
Q2
199
199
Q2
Q4
7
7
199
199
Q2
Q4
6
6
199
Q2
Q4
199
$1,700,000
Pilatus: Spring 2014 Market
PC-12
PC-12 47
PC-12NG
14
8
11
Total Fleet
568
202
438
2.5%
4.0%
2.5%
$2,124,375
$2,712,000
$3,565,000
5,553
2,493
905
142
70
83
14
6
8
PC-12NG:
2.5% For Sale
15
Single Engine Turboprop Liquidity Index
Single Turboprop – Percent of Fleet for Sale
jetAVIVA created the Liquidity Index as an informative
tool. This measure of relative “liquidity” for a particular
aircraft provides one indication of a markets direction.
In other words, looking at recent sales in comparison to
the number of sellers is an indicator of supply, demand
and subsequently pricing. This is typically correlated
to how quickly and how much an aircraft can sell for,
independent of all other factors. By no means is this
the only factor one should consider when transacting
in any market.
Single Turboprop – Percent of Fleet Sold Q1 2014
6.0%
5.0%
Single Turboprop – Liquidity Index
1.25%
1.00%
4.0%
0.75%
3.0%
0.50%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.25%
0.00
16
Turboprop & Piston Inventory Currently for Sale by jetAVIVA
2008 Socata TBM 850 SN 478
Details: Socata Service Center Maintained – G1000
TAS – Hangared and low time
2000 Socata TBM 700B SN 202
Details: Garmin G600 – Dual GTN750s – L3 Trilogy backup display
Immaculate condition
2013 Piper Meridian SN 4697511
Details: Like new in every respect – Fresh 2014 Annual
Completed – G1000 SVT – TCAS – “Dune” Leather Interior
2012 Piper Mirage SN 4697521
Details: G1000 – TAS Traffic – SVT – Fresh annual
Speed Brakes – Flawless condition
17
Sales • Delivery • Training
Sources: AMSTAT, JetNet, Aircraft Blue Book, UBS Market Research, JPMorgan, jetAVIVA Research Team. Cover photo courtesy of Jessica Ambats.

Spring 2014

Transcription

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