Abronia ochoterenai - pincc

Vulnerability to global warming of endemic Mexican reptiles under the category of endangered
risk
Martha Anahí Güizado-Rodríguez, Claudia Ballesteros-Barrera, Alma Delia Toledo-Guzmán and Gilberto Cárdenas-Hernández.
Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa. Av. San Rafael Atlixco N° 186, Col. Vicentina, Del. Iztapalapa, C.P. 09340, México, D.F. CONTACTO: [email protected]
INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
Mexico is a megadiverse country, in terms of reptilian diversity as it is home to
864 (8.7%) of the described worldwide species and also it has a high degree of
endemism (57%). However, more than 50% of these reptilian species are at
some level of risk by Mexican Official Norm (NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010).
Among the factors of threat to Mexican reptiles is habitat loss and degradation
and global warming, although the biological and ecological consequences on
Mexican species is usually unavailable (Sinervo et al., 2010).
The aim of this study was to define the vulnerability to global warming of
endemic reptiles under the category of endangered risk included in the NOM059-SEMARNAT-2010.
RESULTS
Table 1. Current and future potential distribution of 13 species of endemic Mexican reptiles under the Endangered Category in
the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010. Ecological Niche Model were generated using MaxEnt for the liberal climate change scenario
proposed by the Canadian Climate Centre CGCM3 (RCP8.5). Areas remaining, areas won and areas lost are shown. Values ​are in
km2.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
SPECIE
Ecological Niche Model
MaxEnt t v.3.3.1
DATA BASE
CLIMATIC DATA
SPECIES RECORDS OF 13 ENDEMIC REPTILES
THAT CONSIST OF INDIVIDUAL POINT-LOCALITY
INFORMATION (PRESENCE-ONLY DATA)
• GBIF (www.gbif.org)
• REMIB (www.conabio.gob.mx)
• CNAR (COLECCIÓN NACIONAL DE ANFIBIOS Y
REPTILES, IB, UNAM)
BINARY (PRESENCE-ABSCENCE); USING A
THRESHOLD OF 10% (T10) VALIDATED WITH
A P-value OF A JACKKNIFE TEST (PEARSON
et al., 2007)
ACTUAL
POTENTIAL
DISTRIBUTION
19 CLIMATIC VARIABLES AT A SPATIAL
RESOLUTION 0.01° × 0.01° (~1 km2)
PRESENT
WorldClim
(www.worldclim.org)
FUTURE
WorldClim v. 1.4
IPPC5 (CMIP5), GENERAL CIRCULATION
MODELS FOR THE YEARS 2050 AND 2070
FROM THE CGCM3 MODEL UNDER THE RCP8.5
EMISSION SCENARIO.
POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION MODELS
M REGION (SOBERÓN AND PETERSON, 2005)
BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS
(www.conabio.gob.mx)
Abronia bogerti
568,174
RCP8.5
Abronia chiszari
67,323
RCP8.5
Abronia ochoterenai
11,395
RCP8.5
Abronia reidi
204,425
RCP8.5
Crotalus transversus
18,572
RCP8.5
Barisia rudicollis
369,209
RCP8.5
Uma exsul
87,009
RCP8.5
Uma paraphygas
207,172
RCP8.5
Aspidoscelis rodecki
26,608
RCP8.5
Xantusia bolsonae
149,544
RCP8.5
Xantusia sanchezi
237,659
RCP8.5
Ctenosaura defensor
120,371
RCP8.5
Gopherus flavomarginatus
• Abronia bogerti
ACTUAL
2070
ACTUAL
211,579
RCP8.5
PERMANENCE
COLONIZATION
EXTINCTION
2050
427,093
381,820
65,861
67,017
5,104
9
197,307
203,834
4,838
3,231
368,839
362,337
86,995
87,008
37,496
34,159
24,870
13,991
131,689
133,156
227,065
219,645
120,278
101,606
147,530
21,738
13,334
47,658
123,979
72,880
184,117
22
2
126,519
96,987
207,971
317,438
2,190
2,991
14,732
6,401
410,427
508,503
334,100
388,340
34,607
16,485
15,713
141,081
186,354
1,462
306
6,291
11,386
7,118
591
13,734
15,341
370
6,872
14
1
169,676
173,013
1,738
12,617
17,855
16,388
10,594
18,014
93
18,765
64,049
2070
127,462
21,545
84,117
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
2050
2070
• Xantusia bolsonae
• Barisia rudicollis
2050
SCENARIO YEAR
2050
2070
ACTUAL
2050
• Abronia chiszari
• Uma exsul
• Xantusia sanchezi
• Abronia ochoterenai
• Uma paraphygas
• Ctenosaura defensor
• Abronia reidi
• Aspidoscelis rodecki
• Gopherus flavomarginatus
• Crotalus transversus
2070
C O N C L U S I O N We provide here the first comprehensive study on the potential effect of global warming on the geographic distribution
of endemic Mexican reptiles under the category of endangered risk in the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010. Abronia ochoterenai, Crotalus
transversus, Uma paraphygas and Gopherus flavomarginatus could lost a great area of their actual potential distribution: 99.93%, 783%,
83.52% and 39.76%, respectively. So there are highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations such as global warming. While other species could
gain a vast area where the optimal conditions of their ecological niche could be found: Uma exsul 364%, Xantusia bolsonae 340%, Xantusia
sanchezi 163%. However, most species analyzed here could suffer negative impacts on their distribution, that could put at high risk their
survival.