Biofuel production in Iceland
Transcription
Biofuel production in Iceland
Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Report Draft 15 October 2010 Grensásvegur 1 Authors: Malin Sundberg Jón Guðmundsson Magnús Guðmundsson 108 Reykjavík Iceland Tel: +354 422 3000 Fax: +354 422 3001 Mail: [email protected] Mannvit hf. Web: www.mannvit.com Abstract Table of contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 1 2 Potential biofuels ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 3 Fuels from anaerobic fermentation ........................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 Bioethanol ................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Biohydrogen ................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.3 Biomethane ................................................................................................................. 6 Fuels from fatty acid glycerides ............................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Fatty acid alkyl esters (FAME) ..................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Hydrogenation derived renewable diesel (HDRD)....................................................... 8 Fuels from biosyngas ............................................................................................................... 9 2.3.1 FT-fuels ...................................................................................................................... 10 2.3.2 Bioethanol ................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.3 Biohydrogen .............................................................................................................. 10 2.3.4 Biomethanol .............................................................................................................. 11 2.3.5 BioDME...................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.6 Biomethane ............................................................................................................... 11 Properties of fuels ................................................................................................................. 11 Forecasted raw material availability and biofuel yield ........................................................... 13 3.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 Biomass obtained by cultivation ........................................................................................... 15 3.3 3.4 3.2.1 Cultivated land in Iceland .......................................................................................... 16 3.2.2 Harvest ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 Algae ......................................................................................................................... 24 Organic waste from agriculture ............................................................................................. 24 3.3.1 Manure ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.3.2 Waste hay ................................................................................................................. 27 Organic waste from household, industry and services ......................................................... 27 3.4.1 Paper and paperboard .............................................................................................. 28 3.4.2 Timber and wood ...................................................................................................... 32 3.4.3 Fish waste.................................................................................................................. 36 3.4.4 Meat and slaughter waste ........................................................................................ 38 3.4.5 Garden waste ............................................................................................................ 40 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 i 3.4.6 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)................................................................................... 44 3.4.7 Waste bio oil ............................................................................................................. 46 3.5 Sewage................................................................................................................................... 49 3.6 Emissions of biogas from landfill sites ................................................................................... 50 4 Summary of potential biofuel production ............................................................................. 51 5 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................... 56 6 References ........................................................................................................................... 60 Appendix ................................................................................................................................... 63 ii Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 List of Figures Figure 1 Overview of different regions in Iceland .................................................................................. 2 Figure 2 Ratio of population in different regions in 2010....................................................................... 2 Figure 3 Ratio of area for different regions ............................................................................................ 3 Figure 4 Schematic overview of bioethanol production (Mannvit, 2010a) ............................................ 5 Figure 5 Schematic overview of biomethane production (Mannvit, 2010a) .......................................... 6 Figure 6 Production of FA glycerides (Mannvit, 2010a).......................................................................... 7 Figure 7 Production of FAME (Mannvit, 2010a) ..................................................................................... 8 Figure 8 Transesterification reaction ...................................................................................................... 8 Figure 9 Simplified production of HDRD (Mannvit, 2010a) .................................................................... 9 Figure 10 Reactions of hydrogenation (Mannvit, 2010a) ....................................................................... 9 Figure 11 Energy value and energy density of various fuels at standard condition (25°C and 1 atm) (ICI, 2010) .............................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 12 Population growth ................................................................................................................ 13 Figure 13 Population ratios in different regions in the year 2000 ........................................................ 14 Figure 14 Population ratios in different regions in the year 2010 ........................................................ 14 Figure 15 Estimated yearly amount of paper and paperboard considered suitable for recycling ■ imported paper and paperboard, ■ exported paper and paperboard (for recycling), ■ available waste (difference import and export). ............................................................................................................ 29 Figure 16 High prediction for available amount of paper and paperboard waste suitable for bioethanol production. ▬ potential amount of raw material ▬ amount of raw material returned for recycling ................................................................................................................................................ 30 Figure 17 High prediction for available amount of paper and paperboard waste suitable for bioethanol production. ▬ potential amount of raw material ▬ amount of raw material returned for recycling ................................................................................................................................................ 30 Figure 18 Potential production of bioethanol from paper and paperboard waste .............................. 31 Figure 19 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from paper and paperboard waste31 Figure 20 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from paper and paperboard waste .............................................................................................................................................................. 32 Figure 21 Estimated amount of timber waste in different regions in 2010 ......................................... 33 Figure 22 Ratio of timber waste in different regions in 2010 ............................................................... 33 Figure 23 Predicted amount of timber waste in Iceland until the year 2030 ....................................... 34 Figure 24 Potential production of bioethanol from syngas produced from timber waste ................. 35 Figure 25 Potential production of biofuel from syngas produced from timber waste ........................ 35 Figure 26 Quantity of fish processed annually in different regions...................................................... 36 Figure 27 Estimated annual amount of fish waste ............................................................................... 36 Figure 28 Ratio of fish waste in different regions ................................................................................. 37 Figure 29 Estimated amount of slaughter waste in different regions in 2010 ..................................... 38 Figure 30 Ratio of slaughter waste in different regions ....................................................................... 38 Figure 31 Estimated amount of meat waste in different regions in 2010 ............................................ 39 Figure 32 Ratio of meat waste in different regions .............................................................................. 39 Figure 33 Predicted amount of slaughter and meat waste in Iceland until the year 2030 .................. 39 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 iii Figure 34 Potential production of biofuels from meat and slaughter waste ....................................... 40 Figure 35 Estimated amount of garden waste in different regions in 2010 ......................................... 41 Figure 36 Ratio of garden waste in different regions ........................................................................... 41 Figure 37 Predicted amount of garden waste until 2030 ..................................................................... 42 Figure 38 Potential production of bioethanol from garden waste ....................................................... 42 Figure 39 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from garden waste ........................ 43 Figure 40 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from garden waste....................... 43 Figure 41 Estimated amount of MSW in different regions in 2010 ...................................................... 44 Figure 42 Ratio of MSW in different regions ........................................................................................ 44 Figure 43 Predicted amount of MSW until 2030 .................................................................................. 45 Figure 44 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from MSW ..................................... 45 Figure 45 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from MSW .................................... 46 Figure 46 Estimated amount of WVO in different regions in 2010 ...................................................... 47 Figure 47 Ratio of WVO in different regions ......................................................................................... 47 Figure 48 Predicted amount of WVO in Iceland until the year 2030 .................................................... 48 Figure 49 Potential production of biodiesel from WVO ....................................................................... 48 Figure 50 Prediction of energy usage for vehicles ................................................................................ 56 Figure 51 Overview of potential biofuel production from biomass compared to energy usage for transportation ....................................................................................................................................... 57 Figure 52 Overview of potential biofuel production from waste biomass compared to energy usage for transportation ................................................................................................................................. 57 iv Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 List of Tables Table 1 Population ratio in different regions in 2000 and 2010 ........................................................... 15 Table 2 Stock of fodder as estimated through fodder inventory ......................................................... 17 Table 3 Summary of cultivated land and possible increase of that land .............................................. 20 Table 4 Summary over biomass obtained by cultivation ...................................................................... 22 Table 5 Annual potential production of biofuel [ton] from biomass obtained by cultivation ............. 23 Table 6 Yield [kg/ton biomass dw] for biofuel production ................................................................... 23 Table 7 Amount of manure available in each region divided according to livestock categories. The estimated amount is for wet manure as delivered. ............................................................................. 25 Table 8 Estimated amount of manure, used for calculation of potential methane production .......... 26 Table 9 Potential quantity of biomethane from manure ..................................................................... 26 Table 10 Potential quantity of biofuel from waste hay ........................................................................ 27 Table 11 Potential quantity of biofuel from paper and paperboard waste ......................................... 32 Table 12 Potential quantity of biofuel from timber waste .................................................................. 35 Table 13 Potential quantity of biofuel from fish waste ........................................................................ 37 Table 14 Potential quantity of biofuel from meat and slaughter waste .............................................. 40 Table 15 Potential quantity of biofuel from garden waste................................................................... 43 Table 16 Potential quantity of biofuels from MSW .............................................................................. 46 Table 17 Potential quantity of biofuels from WVO .............................................................................. 48 Table 18 Overview of bioethanol production ....................................................................................... 51 Table 19 Overview of biodiesel production .......................................................................................... 51 Table 20 Overview of biomethane production ..................................................................................... 52 Table 21 Overview of biohydrogen production .................................................................................... 53 Table 22 Overview of biofuel production from syngas......................................................................... 53 Table 23 Overview of biofuel production from syngas......................................................................... 54 Table 24 Approximate investment cost for biofuel production ........................................................... 58 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 v 1 Introduction A main concern today is the global warming due to the greenhouse effect and it is obvious that there has to be a reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). One solution to this problem is to replace fossil fuels with biofuels. Biofuel is fuel produced from biomass such as plants or organic waste. This report is part of a large project investigating the feasibility of biofuel production in Iceland. The purpose of this investigation is to survey potential raw materials available in Iceland and estimate yields of biofuel production for the coming decades. This study covers a prediction of the amount of raw material available in different regions for the coming decades. Further the potential production of different types of biofuels from these raw materials is estimated. The biomass used for possible production of biofuels will in this report be divided into following main categories; Biomass obtained by cultivation, Organic waste from agriculture and Organic waste from household, industry and services. Sewage and Emissions of biogas from landfill sites are also discussed. In this report following biofuels will be considered; Fuels from anaerobic fermentation (Bioethanol, Biohydrogen and Biomethane), Fuels from fatty acid glycerides (Fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) and Hydrogenation derived renewable diesel (HDRD)) and Fuels from biosyngas (FT-fuels, Bioethanol, Biohydrogen, Biomethanol, BioDME and Biomethane). The population of Iceland was 317.630 (1st of Jan 2010) and the total area is 103.000 km2 (Landfræðilegar upplýsingar). A map showing an overview of different municipalities in Iceland is given in Appendix A. In this survey the following regions will be considered; Capital area (pink), South peninsula (blue), South (yellow), West (purple), East (orange), Northeast (red), Eyjafjörður (turquoise), Northwest (brown) and Westfjords (green), see Figure 1. The total area of the regions considered in this survey is 102.698 km2 (Flatarmál sveitarfélaga). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 1 Figure 1 Overview of different regions in Iceland This division of Iceland is primarily based on the traditional division of the country into 8 regions. The traditional division is mainly used for statistical purposes and also the district court jurisdictions follow it (Regions of Iceland). For this investigation Eyjafjörður is considered as a separate region, which means that the Northeast area is here divided into two areas, Northeast and Eyjafjörður. Another deviation from the traditional division is that the westernmost municipality in the Northwest area is here considered to belong to the Northwest area instead of to the Westfjords. This could be considered as a rather natural division for this study since investigations have previously been made for some of these areas, such as area plans as well as an investigation made specifically for the Eyjafjörður area. The ratio of population in 2010 and area for the different regions can be seen in Figure 2 and Figure 3 respectively (Mannfjöldi sveitarfélaga, 2010) (Flatarmál sveitarfélaga). Figure 2 Ratio of population in different regions in 2010 2 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Figure 3 Ratio of area for different regions Further details about each region and its municipalities can be seen in Appendix B (Mannfjöldi sveitarfélaga, 2010) (Flatarmál sveitarfélaga). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3 2 Potential biofuels Biofuel is fuel produced from biomass such as plants or organic waste. Biofuels are generally categorized into different types based on the production technology and the raw material origin; 1st generation (1G), 2nd generation (2G) and 3rd generation (3G). The 1st generation technology is well established while the 2nd generation technology is still under development. The 2nd generation technology is focusing on the use of raw materials that are not used for food production as well as increasing the yield of produced biofuel. Generally the production of 2nd generation biofuels is more expensive than 1st generation biofuels, mainly due to the need of various pretreatment steps of the raw materials used. The third generation production technology uses microalgae as raw material for 1st generation or 2nd generation production process. In this investigation 1st generation and 2nd generation biofuels will be considered. Biofuels can further be classified as gas or liquid fuels. Among gas fuels can be mentioned methane (1G) and hydrogen, syngas and DME (2G). Common types of liquid fuels are; ethanol (1G, 2G), butanol, methanol (2G), FA glycerides, conventional biodiesel (FAME/FAEE) (1G) and HDRD, BTL diesel and BTL petrol (2G). In this report following biofuels will be considered; Fuels from anaerobic fermentation (Bioethanol, Biohydrogen and Biomethane), Fuels from fatty acid glycerides (Fatty acid methyl esters (FAME/FAEE) and Hydrogenation derived renewable diesel (HDRD)) and Fuels from biosyngas (FTfuels, Bioethanol, Biohydrogen, Biomethanol, BioDME and Biomethane). 2.1 Fuels from anaerobic fermentation 2.1.1 Bioethanol Ethanol is widely used as an additive in gasoline, defined as E5 or E10 (5% or 10% per volume), E85 (85% ethanol) or E100 (anhydrous ethanol containing less than 1% water). Ethanol can be used as oxygen source in gasoline instead of Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) leading to better combustion and less pollution. Most petrol cars can use E5 and E10 directly whereas the use of ethanol in higher ratios requires flexi-fuel vehicles. The proportion of ethanol additive in Iceland is limited by the maximum allowable amount of oxygen in the fuel mixture and the maximum vapour pressure, and both criteria are defined in current fuel regulations. The limit for ethanol additive in Iceland is 5% but is expected to increase to due to the aim of increasing the share of biofuels. Fermentation of sugar and starch is a well known process and bioethanol produced in this way is considered as 1st generation bioethanol. Traditional raw materials for bioethanol production are food crops such as sugar cane, corn, wheat and sugar beet. The bioethanol considered in this report is 2nd generation bioethanol obtained from lignocellulosic biomass such as timber, grass and various wastes. A schematic overview of 2nd generation bioethanol production can be seen in Figure 4. 4 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Figure 4 Schematic overview of bioethanol production (Mannvit, 2010a) Lignocellulosic biomass is composed mainly of cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. The production of 2nd generation bioethanol requires pretreatment and cellulose hydrolysis in order to make the sugar molecules available for fermentation. Theoretical maximum production of ethanol from hexoses and pentoses: C6H12O6 2 C2H5OH + 2CO2 C5H10O5 5/3 C2H5OH + 5/3 CO2 The energy value (Low Heating Value, LHV) of ethanol is about 26,9 MJ/kg and the energy density is 21,4 MJ/L. 2.1.2 Biohydrogen Biohydrogen is considered as a 2nd generation biofuel. Biohydrogen does not contribute to greenhouse gas emissions since the only emissions from biohydrogen vehicles are water vapor. Biohydrogen is not an energy source but an energy carrier. To be able to use hydrogen as fuel an energy converter (fuel cell or combustion engine) is needed. Hydrogen has a LHV of 121,5 MJ/kg and energy density of 2,9 MJ/L (700 bar). Drawbacks of hydrogen use are handling and transporting of hydrogen. Biohydrogen can be produced by anaerobic fermentation by a similar process as used for methane production. The amount of hydrogen produced from glucose is affected by fermentation pathways and liquid end-products. Theoretical maximum yield of hydrogen fermentation is 4 moles of hydrogen per mole of glucose and 3,3 moles of hydrogen per mole of xylose, if all of the substrate would be converted to acetic acid. If all the substrate would be converted to butyric acid, 2 moles of hydrogen per mole of glucose is produced. In practice, a lower hydrogen yield is achieved (Ni, Leung, Leung, & Sumathy, 2006) (Urbaniec & Grabarczyk, 2009). The highest hydrogen yield obtained from Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 5 glucose is around 2,0-2,4 mole/mole glucose, and the lower yield is probably due to utilization of the substrate as an energy source for bacterial growth. Currently the hydrogen yield is low and the production rate slow and technological advances are needed in order to achieve sufficient results. Organic acids produced during dark fermentation may be converted to hydrogen and CO2 by photo heterotrophic bacteria. Sequential or combined bio-processes of dark and photo-fermentations seem to be the most attractive approach (Kapdan & Kargi, 2006). Biohydrogen could also be obtained as a by-product from ethanol production. 2.1.3 Biomethane Methane can be produced by anaerobic biodegradation of biomass or by gas processing of landfill gas. The production of biomethane is considered a 1st generation process. A schematic overview of biomethane production can be seen in Figure 5. Figure 5 Schematic overview of biomethane production (Mannvit, 2010a) Main components of biogas are methane and carbon dioxide, but other compounds such as nitrogen, hydrosulphide, oxygen and water vapour are also present in smaller amounts. Landfill gas generally has lower methane content and higher nitrogen content than biogas produced from biomass. To be able to use the biogas as transport fuel the biogas has to be upgraded to have a methane content of at least 95%. Main procedures used for upgrading of biogas are; Pressure Swing Absorption (PSA), Membrane technology and Scrubber. The gas has to be compressed to approximately 200 bar before use. Biomethane has a LHV of 50,0 MJ/kg and energy density of 10,5 MJ/L (300 bar). Biomethane from biomass Biomethane can be produced by varies types of biomass such as manure, green waste, energy crops and MSW. The anaerobic digestion of biomass can be divided into four processes; hydrolysis, acid formation, acetic acid formation and gas formation. The methane yield is strongly depending on the type of biomass used. Also the rate of decomposition varies for different types of biomass, with a slower decomposition rate for materials containing high amount of cellulose and hemicelluloses. By mixing various substrates a higher yield can be obtained. 6 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Biomethane from landfill gas Landfill gas is spontaneously produced at landfills containing organic waste. The decomposition of waste takes long time and gas production continues for many years. Iceland is aiming for abandoning landfill in the year 2020, but the production of biomethane from existing landfills is believed to continue for decades. The composition of landfill gas is expected to change over time due to environmental changes in the landfill during decomposition. The landfill gas is captured and upgraded to methane (>95%). Landfill gas formation depends on amount and type of waste, how the waste is landfilled, moisture content and climate. Gas formation begins within a few months and can last for several decades. A maximum production is usually reached within a few years (R.P.M. Kamsma, 2003). 2.2 Fuels from fatty acid glycerides Two types of biodiesel are discussed in this report; fatty acid alkyl esters (1st generation) and hydrogen derived renewable diesel (2nd generation). Both fuels are produced from fatty acid (FA) glycerides. The FA glycerides can be obtained from vegetable oils, animal fats or other types of biomass rich in oil or fat. The production of FA glycerides involves extraction and refining of the feedstock. Different grades of pretreatment are needed depending on type of raw material used. A simplified production process can be seen in Figure 6. Figure 6 Production of FA glycerides (Mannvit, 2010a) The yield of FA glycerides varies with the raw material used. In this report rapeseed oil, WVO and WAF are considered as potential raw materials. The oil content of rapeseed is approximately 40% and it can be estimated that approximately 17% of slaughter and meat waste is fat. 2.2.1 Fatty acid alkyl esters (FAME) Fatty acid alkyl esters are widely used as an additive in diesel oil, generally as B5 or B10 (5% or 10% per volume). Generally diesel cars can use B5, B10 and up to B50 without any problems, even though many car manufactures does not warrant the use of higher than B10. Some car manufacturers do warrant the use of B100. Fatty acid alkyl esters have a more favourable combustion emission profile compared to fossil diesel. Further, fatty acid alkyl esters have better lubricating properties and Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 7 higher cetan number. Fatty acid alkyl esters are obtained by reacting FA glycerides with an alcohol through a process called transesterification. FAME (fatty acid methyl ester) is the most common fatty acid alkyl ester, and is obtained when methanol is used. FAEE (fatty acid ethyl ester) is obtained when ethanol is used. A generalized production process of FAME can be seen in Figure 7. Figure 7 Production of FAME (Mannvit, 2010a) The transesterification process can be seen in Figure 8. Usually a 60 to 100 % excess of alcohol is added to ensure that the transesterification reaction goes to completion. A catalyst (usually an alkaline catalyst) is added to initiate and accelerate the reaction. Figure 8 Transesterification reaction FAME has a LHV of 38,0 MJ/kg and energy density of 33,6 MJ/L. Theoretically approximately 1 kg of FAME and 100 g of glycerol can be obtained from 1 kg of FA glycerides (Mannvit, 2010a). However, a more realistic process yield is estimated to 90% (Mannvit. Project (2.100.020)). 2.2.2 Hydrogenation derived renewable diesel (HDRD) Hydrogen derived renewable diesel have similar properties as fossil diesel and can be used directly as fuel or as additive. Hydrogenation, also called catalytic cracking, is a process commonly used in petroleum refining for transforming hydrocarbons with higher molecular weight into lighter hydrocarbon products. Hydrogenation for biodiesel production involves cracking of triglycerides into corresponding alkyl chains. Another valuable product from the hydrogenation is propane (Mannvit, 2010a). A schematic overview of HDRD production can be seen in Figure 9. 8 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Figure 9 Simplified production of HDRD (Mannvit, 2010a) The hydrogen cracking can be made in four different ways, depending on used catalyst, temperature and pressure; dehydration, decarboxylation, dehydration with decarboxylation, decarboxylation side reaction, see Figure 10. Depending on the reaction pathway, a number of side products are generated such as water, carbon monoxide, methane and carbon dioxide. A biodiesel production process generally involves all these reactions in certain proportions. The most beneficial pathways are dehydration or dehydration with decarboxylation (Mannvit, 2010a). Figure 10 Reactions of hydrogenation (Mannvit, 2010a) It can be expected that 1 kg of FA glycerides yields 880 g of HDRD and approximately 43 g of propane. The yield suggests that the production process employs a dehydration reaction (Mannvit, 2010a). 2.3 Fuels from biosyngas Syngas obtained from gasification mainly contains H2, CO, CO2 and small amounts of CH4. For production of most fuels the mole ratio of CO and H2 should be close to 1:2. Usually the ratio of CO Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 9 and H2 is in the range 1,4:1 to 1:1 as the ratio of carbon and hydrogen in the biomass or organic waste is: C6H12O6 6 CO + 6 H2 MSW and biomass in Iceland have carbon content close to 50% in ash and moisture free raw material and the ratio of carbon and hydrogen is close to one. The syngas produced from MSW or biomass can be estimated to contain approximately 770-905 kg CO and 46-56 kg H2 per ton dry raw material. The energy value of syngas is roughly 15-16 MJ/kg (ICI, 2010). 2.3.1 FT-fuels FT-diesel and FT-products can be produced from purified syngas. The Fischer-Tropsch reactions produce many products from lighter hydrocarbons to heavier like (C1 and C2), LPG (C3-C4), naphtha (C5-C11), diesel (C12-C20) and wax (>C20). The ratio of H2/CO is very important and needs to be 1,7 to 2,15 for optimal use of the syngas for FT production. If the ratio is low the CO can only be used partially. However, it is possible to improve the production by using hydrogen from electrolysis or produce hydrogen by water gas shift reaction from CO and steam. The use of water gas shift reaction can increase the production by 50% if the starting ratio is one for the ratio H2/CO and the use of hydrogen from electrolysis could double the production. About 60% of the FT-products are diesel, 15% is naphtha and 25% is kerosene that is produced by hydro-cracking of waxes. The FT products are very low in sulfur, nitrogen and tar. FT-diesel has a cetane number of 75 but the market needs diesel with 45-50. Because of this high cetane number it is possible to blend FT-diesel with low cetane diesel to improve it (ICI, 2010). From 100 thousand ton of biomass or MSW with 50% carbon content in ash and moisture free dry material following products can be produced; 11.125 to 16.310 m3 diesel, 3.020 to 4.427 m3 naphtha and 5.030 to 7.375 m3 kerosene. FT-diesel has density of 0,85 kg/L, while naphtha and gasoline have 0,72 kg/L (ICI, 2010). 2.3.2 Bioethanol Anaerobic bacteria can ferment the syngas e.g. Clostridium ljungdahlii and produce ethanol and acetate. The main advantage of using syngas fermentation is that it is not dependent on special ratio between H2, CO and CO2 as is necessary in the FT-process. The process is: 6 CO + 3 H2O C2H5OH + 4 CO2 6 H2 + 2 CO2 C2H5OH + 3 H2O According to Ineos Bio the efficiency is between 322 to 400 liters from every ton of biomass. The energy efficiency in ethanol production from biomass has been estimated to be 35-45%. It is also possible to produce ethanol with help of catalysts similar to FT-process but that technique is new (ICI, 2010). 2.3.3 Biohydrogen Gasification of biomass and MSW can produce between 6 and 6,5% of the weight of the biomass as hydrogen. It is possible to use the water gas shift reaction to react CO with steam to produce more hydrogen according to the equation: 10 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 CO + H2O CO2 + H2 From 100 thousand ton of MSW it is possible to produce between 10 and 11 thousand ton by using water gas shift reaction. This amount of hydrogen is equal to 70-80 MW hydropower station needed to produce hydrogen by electrolysis (ICI, 2010). 2.3.4 Biomethanol Methanol can be produced from syngas according to the equation: CO + 2H2 CH3OH (-90,7 KJ/mol) From 100 thousand ton of biomass or MSW it is possible to produce 60 thousand ton of methanol. By using additional hydrogen it is possible to increase the methanol production from MSW or biomass up to 75% or an increase by 45 thousand ton (ICI, 2010). 2.3.5 BioDME Dimethylether (DME, CH3OCH3) can be produced from syngas by following equations: 2 CO + 4 H2 ↔ H3C-O-CH3 + H2O 3 CO + 3 H2 ↔ H3C-O-CH3 + CO2 It is possible to increase the production of DME by adding hydrogen to the syngas if the hydrogen concentration is low. DME is mainly used as replacement for LPG today but it can be used instead of diesel (ICI, 2010). 2.3.6 Biomethane It is possible to produce methane from syngas by reacting carbon monoxide with hydrogen which is a reverse reaction for transforming methane to CO and hydrogen (steam reforming): CO + 3 H2 ↔ CH4+ H2O CO2 + 4 H2 ↔ CH4 + 2 H2O Usually these reactions are not preferred as a lot of heat will be produced that can only be used for electricity production or heating (ICI, 2010). 2.4 Properties of fuels Energy value (MJ/kg) and energy density (MJ/L) of fuels are of great importance while considering the potential use of different fuels. An overview of energy value and energy density for different fuels can be seen in Figure 11. Gasoline and diesel have a relatively good energy density. Methane has a rather high energy value but low energy density and that is why it needs to be pressurized before use. Hydrogen has a very high energy value but very low energy density which leads to some problems regarding storing and transport of hydrogen. Methanol has lower energy density than both gasoline and ethanol (ICI, 2010). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 11 Figure 11 Energy value and energy density of various fuels at standard condition (25°C and 1 atm) (ICI, 2010) 12 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3 Forecasted raw material availability and biofuel yield The biomass used for possible production of biofuels will in this study be divided into following main categories; Biomass obtained by cultivation Organic waste from agriculture Organic waste from household, industry and services Sewage Emissions of biogas from landfill sites Following types of biofuels produced from raw materials in Iceland will be discussed; Fuels from anaerobic fermentation (Bioethanol, Biohydrogen and Biomethane) Fuels from fatty acid glycerides (Fatty acid alkyl esters (FAME, HDRD) and Hydrogenation derived renewable diesel (HDRD) Fuels from biosyngas (FT-fuels, Bioethanol, Biohydrogen, Biomethanol, BioDME and Biomethane) 3.1 Methodology The Icelandic population was 317.360 in 2010 and is predicted to reach 368.468 thousand in the year 2030, see Figure 12. The population is expected to increase with approximately 16% from 2010 to 2030. The population is further predicted to be rather stable from 2010 to 2013, when the population is expected to increase with approximately 0,8% per year in average until 2030 (Mannfjöldaspá, 2008). Figure 12 Population growth Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 13 The predictions for waste raw materials from household, industry and services are primarily based on population growth and the assumption that the amount of waste per capita will increase with 0,6% per year. This number is based on analysis of consumption and imports over past years (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c) and is in this investigation applied for garden waste, timber waste and MSW. The amount of MSW per capita could possibly be lower due to the continuous development of packaging materials, which would result in use of lighter packaging materials and lower the amount of waste. At this stage of project, predictions concerning the availability of raw materials for coming decades are primarily made for the total amount of raw material available in the country. The ratio of inhabitants in the different regions in the year 2000 and 2010 can be seen in Figure 13 and Figure 14 respectively. In Table 1 it can be seen that the population in Capital area and South peninsula has been increasing, while the population in the other regions has been decreasing. It is difficult to predict the ratio for the coming decades, but this trend will most likely continue. Figure 13 Population ratios in different regions in the year 2000 Figure 14 Population ratios in different regions in the year 2010 14 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Table 1 Population ratio in different regions in 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 [%] [%] Capital area 61,6 63,3 South peninsula 5,8 6,7 South 7,5 7,5 West 5,0 4,8 East 4,3 3,9 North East 2,0 1,6 Eyjafjörður 8,0 7,5 North West 2,9 2,4 Westfjords 2,9 2,3 The yields for biofuel production used in this investigation are obtained from various sources. Where not otherwise mentioned, the references for yields are as follows. For biodiesel, values are taken as 900 kg FAME/ton FA glycerides and 880 kg HDRD/ton FA glycerides (Mannvit, 2010a). Theoretical yield for bioethanol is 511 kg/ton sugars. Practical yield for bioethanol, 196 kg/ton sugars, is based on average numbers for current research available from University of Akureyri. Yields for biomethane vary widely between raw materials and are found in (Carlsson & Uldal, 2009). For hydrogen it is assumed that the recovery is 50% of theoretical yield, 22 kg/ton sugars. Yields for biofuels produced from syngas are obtained from (ICI, 2010) and are given as kg/ton dw biomass. Production of FT-diesel and FT-petrol is estimated to 117 kg/ton biomass and 27 kg/ton biomass respectively. Yields for bioethanol, biohydrogen and biomethanol from syngas are estimated to 285 kg/ton biomass, 105 kg/ton biomass and 600 kg/ton biomass respectively. For estimating the potential production an uncertainty of +5% and -20% is calculated for. 3.2 Biomass obtained by cultivation In this chapter the quantities of biomass that can be obtained through cultivation are estimated. The available biomass depends much on the physical conditions as available land, climate and the soil properties. It is also important to bear in mind other use of the land and of the biomass. The feasibility of the cultivation depends on many factors e.g. the amount harvested, the composition (digestibility) of the harvest, the energy spent obtaining that crop and the GHG emission related to the cultivation. As the objective of growing energy crops is to provide alternative energy to fossil fuel to decrease emission of GHG, the GHG emission and energy spent in that cultivation is crucial. Cultivation of energy crops on drained organic soils causes large emission of GHG and is thus unlikely to reduce GHG emission compared to fossil fuel. The use of synthetic fertilizers in the cultivation involves lot of energy and potentially reduces or even annulets the net energy output of biofuel obtained. The Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 15 cultivation must, for a minimum, be both energetically and GHG positive. The feasibility of the cultivation is analysed in a separate chapter. It is also important to keep in mind that the biomass produced by cultivation competes with other land use and other use of the biomass e.g. as food or fodder. The amount of biomass that can be obtained by cultivation is the product of the area of available land and the harvest of each unit land. The harvest of each unit again depends on the type of crops, cultivation practices and the properties of the soil. Before discussing the possible quantities of variable crops that could be obtained for energy productions present cultivation and possible expansion of cultivated land are discussed. 3.2.1 Cultivated land in Iceland Statistics on cultivated land in Iceland are historically very fragmentary. Amount of fodder has on the contrary been well documented for long time. For the most of the Icelandic history large part of the livestock fodder was obtained from uncultivated land such as meadows and mires. The methods used caused far less GHG emissions than the present mechanization and drainage of these areas. Cultivation in Iceland is today practised for two main reasons. Firstly cultivation is to produce fodder for the livestock or direct production of food for the population. This is referred to as conventional cultivation. Secondly cultivation is practised to restore lost resources as grazing land or forest or to stop soil erosion end reclaim lost ecosystems. This is referred to as revegetation. 3.2.1.1 Conventional cultivation There are several different estimates on the area of cultivated land in Iceland. These different estimates have different objectives and the methodology is also different. The Agricultural University of Iceland (AUI) has, as part of the Icelandic Geographical Land Use Database (IGLUD), prepared a map of all cropland in Iceland. The objective of the mapping is to provide geographical reference to that land use to be better able to detect land use changes as part of GHG emission reporting. The maps were prepared from satellite images through on screen digitations with the support of available aerial photographs (Umhverfisstofnun 2010; Gudmundsson et al. in prep 2009). The resulting area, including all cultivated land both in use and abandoned, is 1.692,3 km2. Of that area 549,0 km2 are estimated as drained organic soils. The mapping has only been controlled by preliminary checks. Systematic ground truthing of the map is pending. The Farmers Association of Iceland (FAI) publishes annually agricultural statistics including estimated area of cultivated land. According to this information the area of cultivated land is 1.290 km2, including both hayfields and annual crops. This number has remained the same for more than a decade. The number is according to personal communication of FAI based on archives on subsides for conversion of land to cropland. The area of abandoned hayfields is then estimated and subtracted. According to FAI archives the total area of land that has been cultivated until 1990 is 1.630 km2. FAI has estimated the area of new cultivations from 19902008 to be approximately 50 km2 (Snæbjörnsson et al. 2010). This numbers agree well with the AUI estimate of 1.692,3 km2. In a recent publication (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010) land in cultivation was estimated in connection with evaluation of possibilities in cultivation of energy crops. The total area of 16 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 land presently cultivated was according to the authors 1157,7 km2, including both hayfields and annual crops. Similar number has been used by others e.g. (Helgadóttir and Hermannsson 2003). As stated before, statistics on available fodder are systematically collected in Iceland. The method applied is a stock inventory on available fodder. These numbers can be used as control for the area cultivated assuming certain harvest per hectare. The total stocked fodder in the year 2008 according to this statistics is summarized in Table 2. Hay density as estimated by FAI (Bændasamtök-Íslands 2010) and total dry weight is calculated from these numbers. Table 2 Stock of fodder as estimated through fodder inventory Hay dry [m3*103] Hay silage [m3*103] 2008 Density [t dw m-3] Dry weight [t dw] Lower value Dry weight [t dw] Higher value 134 0,1-0,2 13.400 26.800 1.957 0,15-0,2 293.550 394.400 306.950 421.200 7.706 13.409* Total hay Barley [ton] 15.413 *) different numbers for barley are due to variable dw Assuming 111.000 ha harvested for hay (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010) the average harvest range from 2,7-3,7 t dw ha-1, which is within what is to be expected considering that part of the growth has been removed through grazing. These estimates agree reasonable well on the area of cultivated land being 1.700 km2 including all land cultivated. There is more uncertainty on area presently being cultivated but best available estimate is probably 1.150 km2 (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010). Abandoned cropland is therefore assumed 550 km2. There are few other sources of information available for estimating the area of cultivated land. Farmers accounting statistics: The farmers association annually collect of voluntary basis financial information concerning farming by a sample of farms. According to this information the average farm had in 2008 43,6 ha of cultivated land. Multiplying this with the total number of farms inhabited or 4.290 gives 1.870 km2 of cultivated land. The area of cultivated land is one of the components used for tax assessment and is accordingly included in the Icelandic Property Database maintained by the Icelandic Property Registry. The total area of cultivated land registered is 2.253 km2. This database was updated regularly as long as cultivation of new areas was subsidised, but since that subsides stopped this part of the database has not been maintained properly. Register Iceland consider this number very inaccurate due to this lack of maintenance (Tryggvi Már Ingvarsson, Head of Geo-Information Department of Register Iceland, personal communication). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 17 3.2.1.2 Revegetation Revegetation has been practised for more than 100 years in Iceland. The revegetation methods applied and area of land processed annually has varied much. Area of revegetated land is estimated annually due to reporting obligations to the UN-Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the Kyoto Protocol. This estimate is reported in Iceland’s National inventory Report (NIR) to the Convention. From 1990 to 2008 it is estimated that total of 100.645 ha or 1006,45 km2 were revegetated (Umhverfisstofnun 2010). Before 1990 the area estimate are less reliable due to different registration of activities. The total area is never the less estimated in NIR as being 98.000 ha or 980 km2. On average 53 km2 have been revegetated annually since 1990. According to these records the total area of revegetated land is 1.986,45 km2, or comparable area as under conventional cultivation. Mapping of revegetation areas is still not completed and Soil Conservation Service of Iceland (SCSI) evaluation of the area is the only one available. In a survey designed to estimate the carbon gain achieved by revegetation conducted since 1990, a large part of the plots sampled had no vegetation cover. This indicates an overestimate of the area. For the years 2007-2009, 28-52% of plots had no vegetation cover (SCSI unpublished data). Applying this ratio on the area estimate the total area revegetated since 1990 could be 30-50% less than reported or 500-720 km2. For the years prior to 1990 the mapping is far less accurate and similar overestimate can be assumed resulting in total area ranging from 1.000-1.480 km2. Considering these two main components of cultivation in Iceland i.e. conventional cultivation and revegetation both use similar area but the output is otherwise very different. Most of the land under conventional cultivation is harvested annually and the harvest used as fodder. According to the above estimates around 500 km2 might be considered as abandoned cropland or hayfields and some portion of it might be available for cultivation of energy crops. Harvesting of revegetation areas has not been practiced and many of the areas already revegetated might not be suitable for harvesting e.g. due to stoniness or distance from possible biofuel production. No evaluation has been done regarding possible harvest of these areas. The biomass per area land as it is under present management regime has been estimated by the SCSI in connection to reporting of carbon sequestration to the UN Framework Convection on Climate Change. The above ground biomass of these areas is highly variable ranging from 0,0 – 2,0 kg dw/m2 (0-20 t/ha) with the average of 0,25 kg/m2 for sites measured 2008. Part of this biomass represents accumulation over several years and can not be interpreted as possible harvest except for the first harvest from relevant land. This biomass also only represents what to be expected under the management regime applied for these areas. The methods presently practiced in revegetation generally do not include fertilization except on the first one or two years. Cultivation of energy crops can be practised in such way that all nutrients are recycled to the land cultivated, thereby minimizing the need for additional fertilizers. This practice could potentially increase the harvest from this land. Cultivation of energy crops combined with revegetation can thus have positive synergy on both activities regarding both ecological and economical benefits. To evaluate the possible output of these areas to biomass for energy production, both the amount and frequency of possible harvesting under this management needs to be determined. 18 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3.2.1.3 Land for increased cultivation There is presently no general consensus regarding total area of land that could be cultivated in the country. The area of arable land is so to say not known. The definition of arable land has not been elaborated for Iceland and usage of terms like agricultural land is confusing as used in municipal or governmental land use planning. As for the land presently cultivated, there have also been made several attempts to estimate total area of land available for cultivation. Helgadóttir and Hermannsson (Helgadóttir and Hermannsson 2003) estimated on basis of information provided by Jóhannsson (1960) (Jóhannesson 1988) that total arable land in Iceland was 15.000 km2. Similar number has also been published elsewhere e.g. (Bændasamtök-Íslands 1998; The_Farmers_Association_of_Iceland 2009) but information on what is behind that number is difficult to obtain. The definitions of potentially cultivatable land used in these estimates are unclear and not reported in the relevant publications. A recent report on land use (Snæbjörnsson et al. 2010) refers an evaluation of Áslaug Helgadóttir and Jónatan Hermansson conducted for the committee on potential arable land. The criteria use were; the land should be below 200 m a.s.l. not to stony to plough, if wet then easily drainable, sands and fluvial pains were included if not subjected to regular floods, and the land needed to be at least 3 ha in continuous area. The resulting estimate for area of easily arable land was 6.000 km2. Traustason and Gísladóttir (2009) (Traustason and Gísladóttir 2009) evaluated potential land for cultivation to control overlap between afforsetation and other cultivation. The criteria used for identifying potential land were; to be classified as grassland, rich heat land, sparsely vegetated heath land or semi-wet area in NYTJALAND geographical database (ref), to be outside settlement area, roads or their designated area but within 2 km from roads, to be below 200 m a.s.l. and with slope less than 10° and to be outside protected areas. The result of this analysis was that potential land for cultivation was 6.150 km2. Sveinsson and Hermannson 2010 (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010) estimated potential land for cultivation of energy crops. Local agriculture consultants were asked to estimate available land fore large scale cultivation the land should not be already in use and easily cultivated and with minimum continuous area of 30 ha. The resulting estimate was that total area meeting these conditions was only 420 km2. Extensive drainage of wetland took place in Iceland mostly in the period 1940-1985. This drainage was aided by governmental subsidies. Only a minor portion of these drained areas was turned to hayfields or cultivated, the larger part of the lowland wetlands in Iceland were converted to Grassland through this drainage effort. The area of this drained land is presently estimated to be 2 3.355,2 km (Umhverfisstofnun 2010). The larger part of these areas is most likely included in the above estimates of potential land for conventional cultivation. Accordingly no new land is added by including this area. Cultivating this land conventionally, i.e. as drained, involves large emission of GHG (Umhverfisstofnun 2010) and thereby possible annulling the GHG benefit of the energy crops harvested. By rewetting these areas and harvesting the land wet these negative effects can possible be avoided. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 19 Recently the potential area available for combining cultivation of energy crops and revegetation was estimated from available geographical data (Brink and Gudmundsson 2010). According to this estimate the total potential area was estimated 3.994 km2 with 0,5 ha as minimal continuous area. Increasing the minimum continuous area to 3, 5 and 50 ha the potential area decreases to 3.374, 3.214 and 2.542 km2 respectively. The criteria used in this estimate was that; the land should be identified as only partly vegetated (20-50% vertical vegetation cover) or sparsely vegetated (<20% vegetation cover), be located below 400 m a.s.l., with less and 10% slope, to be not closer to rivers or shoreline than 50 m, not to be within the boundaries of protected areas or roads or other developed land and land being afforested was excluded. Stoniness and accessibility were not included in this estimate. Rough estimate by Soil Conservation Service of Iceland of the total area of land still to be revegetated is that 0,8-1,0 million ha 8.000-10.000 km2 below 500 m could be revegetated (Guðmundur Halldórsson personal communication, 2010). The area of land presently defined as revegetation area is around 5.500 km2 and most land already revegetated is inside these areas, leaving only 3.000 km2 not already revegetated within these areas. These two estimates are not quite comparable since the altitude limits are not the same but considering that between 400-600 m the total area of partly and sparsely vegetated land is approximately 11.000 km2 a difference of 5.000 km2 in these estimates is not unexpected. 3.2.1.4 Summary of available land In Table 3 the above discussion on available land is summarized and the range of these estimates evaluated. Evaluation of minimum and maximal area is based on various estimates for conventional cultivation and also on ratio of no-vegetated plots for revegetated area. In view of the nature of the information this summary is based on it is not possible for all the estimates to subdivide the area to different regions as suggested above (Figure 1). Available land for cultivation of energy crops is more likely to decrease than increase until 2030 due to increased population and higher demand for land for conventional agriculture. Table 3 Summary of cultivated land and possible increase of that land Category Present area 2 Possible increase Estimated [km ] Max Min Estimated [km2] Min Max Conventional cultivation 1300 2253 1150 4800 420 6000 Cultivated abandoned 500 950 150 Revegetation 1200 2000 800 20 Below 500 m 8000 Below 400 m 4000 10000 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3.2.2 Harvest In a recent paper (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010) the possible harvest of several potential energy crops is estimated. The below summary is mostly based on that review paper. Several species and variants of crops are considered in that paper Oil seed plants: Two species have been tested here i.e. oilseed rape (Brassica napus var oleifera) and field mustard (Brassica rapa var oleifera). These species can only be grown in few regions in Iceland but the harvest in these regions is quite reasonable. The harvest of oilseed rape was according to the abovementioned paper 3,7-4,1 t dw seeds/ha with the oil content 33%. Processing of the harvest is estimated to give 1.200-1.500 l biodiesel/ha, 120 l glycerol/ha and 2000 kg grounded seeds as protein meal. Beside the seeds 3,0 t/ha of leaves and stems which can be used as source of methane or ethanol through fermentation. The field mustard is said to be more reliable in cultivation but gives less harvest. Both species are biannual and are only harvested in the second year. Cereals: Barley (Hordeum vulgare) is the only cereal presently grown in Iceland in some extent. It can be cultivated in many areas in most regions. A harvest of 7 t dw/ha can be assumed where cultivation conditions are suitable. Half of the harvest is straws. Root vegetable: Three species of root vegetable were considered in the abovementioned paper i.e. potatoes (Solanum turberosum), turnips (Brassica napus var. rapifera), turnip mustard (Brassica rapa var. rapifera). The harvest of potatoes is said to be 4 t dw/ha (steams and leaves excluded) but no harvest for the turnips is presented. In different paper (Hermannsson and Guðmundsson 2002) the harvest of several variants of turnips was reported as 15,6 t dw/ha on average with turnips constituting 74% or 11,5 t dw/ha. Hemp: Hemp (Cannabis sativa) is a species considered in Scandinavia good for biomass production (Sveinsson and Hermannsson 2010). The cultivation of hemp has been tested here and the average harvest was 7,75 t dw/ha (Sveinsson 2009). Hemp like oil seed plants can only be grown in few regions. Perennial grasses: There are many species and variants available but timothy-grass (Phleum pratense) is one species considered preferable in the abovementioned review paper. The harvest expectancies are 6,5 t dw/ha if harvested in late August to early September. Other species than considered by Sveinsson and Hermannsson (2010) could be feasible as energy crops. The criteria for suitable plants for energy crops is different from the criteria for plants to be grown as livestock fodder or directly for human consumption or as fibres. In conventional cultivation monocultures are the general rule but for cultivation of energy crops there is no need for that and more diverse composition of species might be more practical. As energy is the desired product the whole process of cultivation needs to consume as little energy as possible including energy used to produce fertilizers. Many of the species considered above need considerable amounts of fertilizers to give the harvest reported. The methods used for extracting the energy from the biomass produce vary regarding the possibilities to recycle the nutrients included in the biomass. This recycling of nutrients can be crucial regarding the net energy output from the cultivation. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 21 Up scaling of the numbers for available land and the possible harvest needs to be interpreted with precaution due to the high uncertainty in available land and in the net energy output from the cultivation. The effects of the biofuel production from each type of biomass cultivated on GHG emission needs also to be analysed further. In principle available land and harvest expectancies could simply be multiplied to give the possible available biomass, but that estimate has large uncertainty. By this method the amount of biomass that could be obtained range from maximum (16.000+950) ha *15,6 t dw/ha = 264.420 t dw biomass year-1 obtained by cultivating turnips on the maximum of available land, to (150+420) ha*6,5 t dw/ha = 3.705 t dw biomass year-1 obtained by assuming timothy-grass on the minimum of abandoned hayfields plus minimum of possible increase in new land for cultivation. Before of using these numbers as basement for further decision regarding biofuel production the feasibility of cultivation of individual species needs to be analysed regarding net energy produced and the land to be used for the cultivation identified geographically. Then lifecycle analysis of the most potential options should be performed. The possible amount of biomass obtained through cultivation until 2030 are not likely to change much from the present estimate. As the population grows more land is needed for other agricultural production and less therefore available for biofuel production. A summary of potential biomass obtained by cultivation can be seen Table 4. In this case competition of land is not considered. Table 4 Summary over biomass obtained by cultivation Possible area [ha] Harvest [ton dw*ha-1*year-1] Total potential biomass [ton dw] Oil seed plants (seeds) Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straws) 7.000 2,0 13.650 7.000 1,5 10.500 7.000 3,5 24.500 Hemp (stems and leaves) Perennial grasses (increase) Perennial grasses (abandoned) Perennial grasses (revegetation) 7.000 7,75 54.250 600.000 6,5 3.900.000 50.000 6,5 325.000 1.000.000 6,5 6.500.000 A summary of potential production of biofuel from biomass obtained from cultivation can be seen in Table 5. In this case one has to be careful when using these numbers. The numbers given here are total potential production from each type of biomass, meaning that when considering one type of biomass other types of biomass are excluded. 22 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Oil seeds (rapeseed) are estimated to have an oil content of 40%. Rapeseed straw is estimated to consist of 61% sugar (dry basis) (36,6% cellulose (as glucose) and 24,2% hemicellulosic sugars, out of which 76% xylose (Castro, Díaz, Cara, Ruiz, Romero, & Moya, 2010). Barley straw is estimated to have a composition of 71% sugar (44% cellulose and 27% hemicellulose, out of which 28% hexoses and 59% pentoses) (Mannvit, 2010b). Hemp is composed of approximately 63% cellulose and 17% hemicellulose (Amaducci, Amaducci, Benati, & Venturi, 2000). Hemp oil may generally be used for biodiesel production, but in Iceland there are no seeds obtained. The composition of perennial grasses is estimated to 29% cellulose, 27% hemicellulose, 3,5% lignin (Mannvit, 2010b), or approximately 56% sugars. Table 5 Annual potential production of biofuel [ton] from biomass obtained by cultivation Oil seed plants (seeds) Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) Hemp Perennial grasses 3.110 1.200 1.740 8.440 3.260 2.930 19.230 7.420 11.840 2.915.610 1.125.450 1.796.810 130 360 830 125.530 FT-diesel 1.160 2.710 6.010 1.188.040 FT-petrol 270 620 1.380 273.190 Bioethanol from syngas 2.840 6.630 14.680 2.902.050 Biohydrogen from syngas 1.050 2.440 5.410 1.069.820 Biomethanol from syngas 5.990 13.970 30.920 6.113.250 Biodiesel (FAME) 4.670 Biodiesel (HDRD) 4.110 Bioethanol Bioethanol (in practice) Biomethane Biohydrogen Table 6 Yield [kg/ton biomass dw] for biofuel production Oil seed plants (seeds) Biodiesel (FAME) 360 Biodiesel (HDRD) 317 Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) Hemp 312 120 363 140 373 144 Bioethanol Bioethanol (in practice) Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Perennial grasses 286 110 23 Biomethane 174 126 230 176 Biohydrogen 13 16 16 12 FT-diesel 117 117 117 117 FT-petrol 27 27 27 27 Bioethanol from syngas 285 285 285 285 Biohydrogen from syngas Biomethanol from syngas 105 105 105 105 600 600 600 600 3.2.3 Algae Algae are a raw material of great interest for biofuel production, and are considered as low-input, high-yield raw material. As mentioned above, biofuels produced from algae are considered 3rd generation biofuel. The use of algae as raw material for biofuel production lies outside the framework of this project, but this subject is definitely worth further investigations in the future. 3.3 Organic waste from agriculture 3.3.1 Manure The amount of manure available has been estimated on basis of annual livestock census 2008 (Icelandic Food and Veterinary Authority unpublished data) for division of livestock to various groups, the estimated time of year each type of animals is kept indoors (Umhverfisstofnun 2010) and the amount of manure estimated from each animal (Bændasamtök-Íslands 2008). The estimated amount of manure is presented in Table 7. 24 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Table 7 Amount of manure available in each region divided according to livestock categories. The estimated amount is for wet manure as delivered. Amount and type of manure Region/ Livestock South peninsula Tons manure yr-1 Fur animals 451 Cattle 9.081 Sheep 1.847 Horses 10.849 Hens & poultry 7.551 Pigs 44.093 West 62.845 31.644 9.559 77 14.526 0 Westfjords 16.087 19.327 1.050 5 0 0 North West 72.709 42.771 18.773 186 112 1.371 North East 116.291 30.461 7.431 701 11.989 715 East 30.890 32.519 3.232 284 247 1.004 South 179.759 32.634 27.382 3.414 24.786 2.547 Total 487.661 191.203 78.276 12.218 95.752 6.087 To be able to use these data above for further estimation of potential production of biomethane, the VS content of the manure needs to be determined. Another estimation of amount of manure has therefore been made and can be seen in Table 8. This estimation is also based on number of animals, the time animals is kept indoors and estimated amount of manure per animal for a known TS and VS content (VGK Hönnun. Project (2632)) (Sveinsson). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 25 Table 8 Estimated amount of manure, used for calculation of potential methane production Amount and type of manure Region/Livestock Tons manure yr-1 Cattle (VS 8%) Sheep (VS 24%) Horses (VS 16%) Pigs (VS 8%) South peninsula 15.160 2.130 10.910 35.470 West 102.580 36.560 9.850 11.690 Westfjords 25.560 22.530 1.080 0 North West 115.420 49.640 19.440 90 North East 193.430 35.140 7.680 9.640 East 48.680 37.590 3.330 200 South 291.690 37.660 28.490 19.940 Total 792.510 221.240 80.780 77.030 The methane production from manure is here estimated out from the latter numbers for amount of manure. The estimated biomethane production from manure can be seen in Table 9 (Carlsson & Uldal, 2009). Manure from hens and poultry, and fur animals is not further considered here. It is assumed that the amount of manure will remain constant over the years. Table 9 Potential quantity of biomethane from manure Yield Annual production 2010-2030 [kg/ton manure] [ton] Cattle 11 8.570 Sheep1 27 5.730 Horses 18 1.390 Pigs 14 1.050 Total 1 16.740 Yield [kg/ton VS] for sheep manure assumed to be same as horses 26 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3.3.2 Waste hay The amount of waste hay is registered yearly, and was estimated to 24 thousand ton dw in the year 2008. Most likely the amount of waste hay varies between the years. It has further been estimated that the amount of waste hay could come to increase with up to 60-90 thousand ton dw if undeveloped fields are used as well (Guðmundsson, 2009). Waste hay (timothy-grass) is assumed to consist of 29% cellulose, 27% hemicellulose, 3,5% lignin (Mannvit, 2010b). The potential production of biofuels from waste hay can be seen in Table 10. Table 10 Potential quantity of biofuel from waste hay Yield Annual production 2010-2030 [kg/ton dw waste hay] [ton] Biomethane 176 4.020 Bioethanol (theoretical) Bioethanol (in practice) 286 110 6.520 2.510 Biohydrogen 12 280 FT-diesel 117 2.660 FT-petrol 27 610 Bioethanol from syngas 283 6.460 Biohydrogen from syngas 105 2.390 Biomethanol from syngas 600 13.680 3.4 Organic waste from household, industry and services Organic waste from household, industry and services is a valuable source for production of biofuels. In the year 2004, The Environment Agency of Iceland set up a National plan for the handling of waste for the period 2004-2016. The objectives are to lower the amount of organic waste which is landfilled over the coming years, according to the following time plan (Landsáætlun um meðhöndlun úrgangs 2004-2016); In the year 2009, less than 75 % of total organic waste 1995 should be landfilled In the year 2013, less than 50 % of total organic waste 1995 should be landfilled In the year 2020, less than 35 % of total organic waste 1995 should be landfilled A newer objective is that in the year 2020 no organic or combustible waste should be landfilled which speaks for an even increased interest of investigating the use of organic waste for production of biofuels (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c). Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 27 There are also objectives to prevent the formation of packaging waste. At least 50 % and maximum 65 % by weight of the packaging waste shall be re-used. Also, at least 25 % and maximum 45 % by weight of all packaging materials in packaging waste should be recycled, out of which at least 15 % of each packaging material separately (Landsáætlun um meðhöndlun úrgangs 2004-2016). The treatment of waste in Iceland is in hands of both municipalities and private companies and it is difficult to get an overview of the origin and quantity of waste. The private companies are not obliged to register the amount or treatment of the waste while there are specific regulations for waste management handled by the municipalities. To be able to fully survey the amount of waste available in Iceland a complete system for registration of waste needs to be integrated. However, the numbers available today will give a fairly good estimation for the amount of raw material, even though one has to consider these numbers to have a relatively high uncertainty (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c). The growing prosperity and increasing consumption have led to an increased amount of waste in Iceland over past years. To predict the amount of waste for coming years one has to consider if this trend will continue as earlier, or if the consumption has somehow reached its maximum and will remain more or less constant from now on. It also has to be considered what result can be expected due to the aim of lowering the amount of waste produced (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c). A general estimation often used is that approximately 60% of the total waste is organic waste. Another estimation often used is that approximately 70% of the organic waste is obtained from the industry and services and 30% from households (Landsáætlun um meðhöndlun úrgangs 2004-2016). Following categories of organic waste from household, industry and services will be defined and discussed further in this report; Paper and paperboard Timber and wood Fish waste Meat and slaughter waste Garden waste MSW Waste bio oil The waste bio oil will further be divided into following categories; Waste vegetable oil (WVO), Waste animal fat (WAF), Fish oil from fish waste, Waste fish oil from fish meal plants, Waste fish oil from cod liver oil production and Waste oil from sewage. 3.4.1 Paper and paperboard Main sources of paper and paperboard waste that are considered suitable for biofuel production (bioethanol, biomethane and biohydrogen) are newspapers, magazines and packaging waste. The data presented here about paper and paperboard waste and the potential production of bioethanol 28 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 are available from on-going investigations (Mannvit, 2010b). The amount of paper and paperboard waste is based on import and export figures available from Statistics Iceland. It is here assumed that 60-70% of the imported amount is suitable for recycling. Probably up to 20-25 thousand ton per year was not delivered to recycling. The estimated yearly amount of paper and paperboard considered suitable for recycling can be seen in Figure 15, and is used as base for further predictions. Figure 15 Estimated yearly amount of paper and paperboard considered suitable for recycling ■ imported paper and paperboard, ■ exported paper and paperboard (for recycling), ■ available waste (difference import and export). The amount of paper and paperboard waste until the year 2030 is assumed to depend on population growth and economic growth. It is further expected that the delivery rate of recycling will increase linearly from the value in 2008, 60%, to 90% at the end of the forecast period. The produced amount of paper and paperboard waste in 2030 is estimated to almost 68 thousand ton and 61 thousand ton is delivered for recycling and assumed to be available for biofuel production. A low prediction for produced paper and paper waste was made based on the same criteria as for high prediction, but with an additional assumption that there will be a reduction of packaging and paper use of 1,5%, due to efforts to reduce packaging, technological advances and an increased environmental public awareness. This will result in a 30% lower amount of paper and paperboard waste at the end of the forecast period compared to the high prediction. Further it is assumed that the delivery rate for recycling will remain constant at 50%, which is the average value for the years. The produced amount of waste in 2030 is estimated to 46 thousand ton where almost 28 thousand ton is recycled and available for biofuel production. The high and low prediction can be seen graphically in Figure 16 and Figure 17 respectively. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 29 Figure 16 High prediction for available amount of paper and paperboard waste suitable for bioethanol production. ▬ potential amount of raw material ▬ amount of raw material returned for recycling Figure 17 High prediction for available amount of paper and paperboard waste suitable for bioethanol production. ▬ potential amount of raw material ▬ amount of raw material returned for recycling In Figure 18, predictions for ethanol production can be seen, based on an average of the high and low prediction of waste defined above. The theoretical maximum production of bioethanol is 511 kg per ton sugar, or 345 kg/ton of paper and paperboard waste, assuming a dry content of 90% and a sugar content of 75% (Mannvit, 2010b). The high prediction gives a production of approximately 14 thousand ton at the end of the forecast period. It is here assumed that all paper and paperboard waste delivered for recycling is used for ethanol production, and that a 100% recovery is achieved. Obviously, it is impossible to achieve 100% recovery, but this give an indication of what is possible with technological advances. A more realistic prediction for bioethanol production allows for the recovery of bioethanol that have been obtained experimentally. Current results in practice show an average recovery of 197 kg ethanol per ton of sugar, or 133 kg ethanol per ton paper and paperboard waste. The low prediction allows for a bioethanol production of approximately 5 thousand ton. It can be assumed that with further development the realistic amount of ethanol 30 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 production may come to increase. The potential production of bioethanol from paper and paperboard waste can be seen graphically in Figure 18. Figure 18 Potential production of bioethanol from paper and paperboard waste Biomethane production from paper and paperboard waste is estimated to 135 kg CH4/ton waste, based on the assumption that paper and paperboard waste have a moisture content of 10%. It is assumed that corrugated paper is 35% of total waste and paper 65%, divided equally into office paper, newspaper and magazine (Gunaseelan, 1997). The potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen can be seen in Figure 19. Biofuel production [ton] 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Biomethane Biohydrogen Figure 19 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from paper and paperboard waste Figure 20 shows the potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from paper and paperboard waste. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 31 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Biofuel production from syngas [ton] 25.000 FT-diesel FT-petrol Bioethanol Biohydrogen Biomethanol Figure 20 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from paper and paperboard waste Table 11 summarizes the potential biofuel production from paper and paperboard waste. Table 11 Potential quantity of biofuel from paper and paperboard waste Biofuel Yield [kg/ton waste] Annual production 2010-2030 [ton] Bioethanol (theoretical) Bioethanol (in practice) Biomethane 345 133 135 5.890-13.790 2.260-5.300 2.310-5.400 Biohydrogen 15 250-590 FT-diesel 105 1.790-4.200 FT-petrol 24 410-970 Bioethanol from syngas 255 4.360-10.190 Biohydrogen from syngas 95 1.610-3.780 Biomethanol from syngas 540 9.220-21.580 3.4.2 Timber and wood Timber waste is generally defined as unpainted timber and painted timber and is available from varies locations and sources. Main sources of timber waste are timber from construction/demolition work, packaging waste and pallets. The total amount of timber waste in Iceland in 2010 can be estimated to approximately 37 ± 11 thousand ton (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c) (Svæðisáætlun Eyjafjörður) (Svæðisáætlun Norðurá) (Svæðisáætlun Austurland, b). Numbers for Northeast and Westfjords are estimated by scaling up the numbers for each region and using 32 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 weighed average. The estimated amount of timber waste in different areas in 2010 can be seen in Figure 21. An uncertainty of 30% is assumed. Figure 21 Estimated amount of timber waste in different regions in 2010 Figure 22 Ratio of timber waste in different regions in 2010 The amount of timber waste produced annually until the year 2030 is estimated by assuming that the amount of timber waste will increase with 0,6 % per capita. A low prediction is made by assuming that the amount of timber waste per capita will remain constant. The total timber waste produced in 2030 is estimated to approximately 49 ± 15 and 43 ± 13 thousand ton respectively, see Figure 23. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 33 60.000 Timber waste (ton) 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 High prediction Low prediction Figure 23 Predicted amount of timber waste in Iceland until the year 2030 Wood waste is also available from forestry, and the amount has been estimated to approximately 8.260 ton/year (dw) (Þórðardóttir, 2008). However, this is not included in the above mentioned numbers for timber waste, but may also be a potential source for biofuel production. Currently there is collaboration between Sorpa, the waste management company in the Capital area, and Elkem Iceland. The majority of unpainted timber waste obtained in the Southwest area, approximately 18 thousand ton, is used at Elkem Iceland as a carbon source in their production of ferrosilicon. The painted timber can not be used at Elkem Iceland and is currently landfilled at Álfsnes (Elkem). In Eyjafjörður almost all timber waste is used for composting. However, in this study all timber waste is considered as potential for biofuel production. It is here assumed that timber and wood waste mainly consist of softwood, with a composition of 45% cellulose, 22% hemicellulose and 28% lignin as well as extractives, acids, salts and minerals. The amount of sugars can then be estimated to 67%, out of which 88% hexose sugars and 12% pentose sugars (Hamelinck, Hooijdonk, & Faaij, 2005). Theoretical maximum ethanol yield is 511 kg per ton of sugars, or 257 kg per ton of timber, with the assumption that 67% are sugars, and that timber waste has a moisture content of 25%. However, in practice the yield is considerably lower and technological advances regarding pretreatment and fermentation need to be achieved in order to obtain a sufficiently high yield. The potential production of biofuels from timber waste can be seen in Figure 24, Figure 25 and Table 12. 34 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Bioethanol production [ton] 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Bioethanol 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Biofuel production from syngas [ton] Figure 24 Potential production of bioethanol from syngas produced from timber waste FT-diesel FT-petrol Biohydrogen Biomethanol Bioethanol Figure 25 Potential production of biofuel from syngas produced from timber waste Table 12 Potential quantity of biofuel from timber waste Biofuel [kg/ton waste] 257 Annual production 2010-2030 [ton] 9.120-11.250 FT-diesel 87 3.110-3.830 FT-petrol 20 710-880 Bioethanol from syngas 213 7.550-9.310 Biohydrogen from syngas 79 2.800-3.450 Biomethanol from syngas 450 15.980-19.710 Bioethanol (theoretical) Yield Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 35 Timber waste can also be used as support material for dry methane process as in the Aikan process, allowing for aeration and drainage of the waste mass. 3.4.3 Fish waste The catch of fish in Iceland with respect to domestic processing from 2003 to 2008 can be seen in Figure 26 (Fish processing, a) (Fish processing, b). The fish species defined for estimating fish waste can be seen in Appendix C. 70.000 Domestic processing (ton) 60.000 Capital region Southwest 50.000 South 40.000 West East 30.000 Northeast 20.000 Eyjafjörður Northwest 10.000 Westfjords 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Figure 26 Quantity of fish processed annually in different regions The amount of fish waste in Eyjafjörður in 2006 has previously been estimated to 1414 ton. These numbers are based on data obtained from fish processing plants and Sorpey, the waste management company in the area (VGK Hönnun. Project (2632)). The amount of fish waste in Eyjafjörður is estimated to be approximately 3,8% of the catch. The fish waste in different regions is estimated by assuming that the ratio of fish waste/catch of fish in Eyjafjörður applies for all regions. The estimated amount of fish waste in different regions can be seen in Figure 27 and is based on the average fish catch from the years 2003 to 2008. The total amount of fish waste available in Iceland can be estimated to approximately 10-12 thousand ton. Figure 27 Estimated annual amount of fish waste 36 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Figure 28 Ratio of fish waste in different regions The annual catch of fish is depending on the total allowable catch (TAC) for each species, which is set by the Minister of Fisheries for one year at the time (1st of September to 31st of August) (Icelandic fisheries management). It is therefore difficult to predict the catch for coming decades. Other factors that may affect the amount of fish waste are variations in the fish market which is hard to predict. In this investigation it will be assumed that the annual catch of fish will stay constant until 2030. It will further be assumed that the amount of fish waste will stay constant over the years. Approximately 10-12 thousand ton of fish waste is produced in Iceland annually. These numbers above are based on data available for fish processed on land, and a considerable amount of fish waste is excluded in these numbers. One possibility could be to introduce a process for extracting fish oil from fish waste on board the vessels. However, this is not further considered at this stage of project. For fish waste there are two potential scenarios; either all fish waste can be used for biomethane production or the oily part of fish waste can be used for biodiesel production and the rest for biomethane production. The potential quantity of biofuel from fish waste can be seen in Table 13. It is assumed that fish waste contains 0,5% of oil (Melturannsóknir, 1995). Table 13 Potential quantity of biofuel from fish waste Biofuel Yield Annual production 2010-2030 [kg/ton waste] [ton] Methane 256 2.710 Biodiesel (FAME/FAEE) 4,5 50 HDRD 4,4 50 - 2.690 Methane (after biodiesel production) Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 37 3.4.4 Meat and slaughter waste Main sources of slaughter waste are lamb, beef, pork and poultry. Meat and slaughter waste can be used for biomethane production and the fat can be used for biodiesel production. The total amount of meat and slaughter waste in Iceland in 2010 can be estimated to approximately 17 ± 5 thousand ton, out of which approximately 14 thousand ton is slaughter waste and 3 thousand ton meat waste. The amounts of meat and slaughter waste in each area are mainly obtained from area plans (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, a) (Svæðisáætlun Norðurá) (Svæðisáætlun Austurland, b). Numbers for Eyjafjörður and Northeast are based on previous investigations made by Mannvit (VGK Hönnun. Project (2632)). The ratio of meat waste/slaughter waste is known for Eyjafjörður and assumed to apply for all areas, except for East area where the amounts of slaughter and meat waste are reported separately. It is assumed that no slaughter waste is produced in Westfjords. An overview of the amount of slaughter waste in different areas can be seen in Figure 29. The amount of meat waste in different areas can be seen in Figure 31. An uncertainty of 30% is assumed. Figure 29 Estimated amount of slaughter waste in different regions in 2010 Figure 30 Ratio of slaughter waste in different regions 38 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Figure 31 Estimated amount of meat waste in different regions in 2010 Figure 32 Ratio of meat waste in different regions The amount of slaughter and meat waste produced annually until the year 2030 is estimated by assuming that the amount of slaughter and meat waste primarily is depending on the population, see Figure 33. Slaughter and meat waste (ton) 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Figure 33 Predicted amount of slaughter and meat waste in Iceland until the year 2030 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 39 The amount of slaughter waste produced in 2030 is estimated to approximately 16 ± 5 thousand ton and the amount of meat waste 4 ± 1 thousand ton, giving a total amount of 20 ± 6 thousand ton. For estimating the potential production of biofuels it is assumed that slaughter and meat waste mainly consists of soft tissue. For slaughter and meat waste there are two possible scenarios; either all waste can be used for biomethane production or the fat can be used for biodiesel production and the rest for biomethane production. The potential production of biofuels from slaughter and meat waste can be seen in Figure 34 and Table 14. Slaughter waste is assumed to have a dry content of 30% and meat waste a dry content of 91%, out which only 10% is meat and the rest bones (VGK Hönnun. Project (2632)). It can be assumed that 17% of total slaughter and meat waste is potential for biodiesel production. Biofuel production [ton] 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Methane Methane after biodiesel FAME/FAEE HDRD Figure 34 Potential production of biofuels from meat and slaughter waste Table 14 Potential quantity of biofuel from meat and slaughter waste Biofuel Yield Annual production 2010 - 2030 [kg/ton waste] [ton] Methane 114 1.830 – 2.130 Biodiesel (FAME/FAEE) 125 2.020 – 2.340 HDRD 123 1.980 – 2.290 - 1.590 – 1.840 Methane (after biodiesel production) 3.4.5 Garden waste Garden waste can be defined as grass, branches and other garden waste. The total amount of garden waste in Iceland in 2010 can be estimated to approximately 16 ± 5 thousand ton (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c) (Svæðisáætlun Eyjafjörður) (Svæðisáætlun Norðurá) 40 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 (Svæðisáætlun Austurland, b). Numbers for Northeast and Westfjords are estimated by scaling up the numbers for each region and using weighed average. The estimated amount of garden waste in different areas in 2010 can be seen in Figure 35. An uncertainty of 30% is assumed. Figure 35 Estimated amount of garden waste in different regions in 2010 Figure 36 Ratio of garden waste in different regions The amount of garden waste produced annually until the year 2030 is estimated by assuming that the amount of garden waste will increase with 0,6 % per capita per year. A low prediction is made by assuming that the amount of garden waste per capita will remain constant. The amount of garden waste produced in 2030 is estimated to approximately 20 ± 6 thousand ton and 18 ± 5 thousand ton respectively, see Figure 37. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 41 25.000 Garden waste (ton) 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 High prediction Low prediction Figure 37 Predicted amount of garden waste until 2030 Today garden waste collected in the Southwest area is used for producing MOLTA, a soil supplement produced from only grass and chopped branches. In Eyjafjörður most of the garden waste is used for composting. The amount of garden waste is seasonal dependent, and assumed to be available in the summer months from April to September, with main peaks in July and August. Garden waste is assumed to mainly include branches (80%) and leaves (20%) (Mannvit. Project (9.610.259)). Contents of leaves are 15-20% cellulose and 80-85% hemicellulose. It is here assumed that branches are both hardwood and softwood. Hardwood is having a cellulose content of 40-55%, a hemicellulose content of 24-40% and a lignin content of 18-25%, and softwood is having a cellulose content of 45-50%, a hemicellulose content of 25-35% and a lignin content of 25-35% (Sun & Cheng, 2002). For estimating the production of bioethanol, garden waste is assumed to have a sugar content of 57% and a dry content of 60% (Carlsson & Uldal, 2009). The biohydrogen production by anaerobic digestion can be estimated to 22 kg/ton sugar (50% of theoretical yield), or 8 kg/ton garden waste (I. Ntaikou, Kornaros, & Lyberatos, 2008). The potential production of biofuel from garden waste can be seen in Figure 38, Figure 39, Figure 40 and Table 15. Bioethanol production [ton] 3.500 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Theoretical In practice Figure 38 Potential production of bioethanol from garden waste 42 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Biofuel production [ton] 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Methane Hydrogen 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Biofuel production from syngas [ton] Figure 39 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from garden waste FT-diesel FT-petrol Biohydrogen Biomethanol Bioethanol Figure 40 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from garden waste Table 15 Potential quantity of biofuel from garden waste Biofuel Yield Annual production 2010 - 2030 [kg/ton waste] [ton] Methane 60 890 – 1.100 Ethanol (theoretical) Ethanol (in practice) 175 67 2.590-3.200 1.000-1.230 Hydrogen 8 110-140 FT-diesel 70 1.040-1.280 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 43 FT-petrol 16 240-290 Bioethanol from syngas 170 2.520-3.110 Biohydrogen from syngas 63 930-1.150 Biomethanol from syngas 360 5.340-6.590 3.4.6 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) MSW is defined as regular household waste handled by municipal waste management companies. The total amount of MSW in Iceland in 2010 can be estimated to 76 ± 6 thousand ton, based on data available from Sorpa, the waste management company in the Capital area. The annual amount of MSW per capita has been estimated to 222-257 kg and is assumed to apply for all areas. It is further assumed that 56 % of MSW is organic, based on numbers for Capital area (Mannvit. Project (2.140.021)). The amount of MSW in different regions can be seen in Figure 41. Figure 41 Estimated amount of MSW in different regions in 2010 Figure 42 Ratio of MSW in different regions 44 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 The amount of MSW produced annually until the year 2030 is estimated by assuming that the amount of MSW will increase with 0,6 % per capita per year. A low prediction is made by assuming that the amount of MSW per capita will remain constant. The amount of MSW produced in 2030 is estimated to approximately 100 ± 7 thousand ton and 88 ± 7 thousand ton respectively, see Figure 43. 120.000 MSW (ton) 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 High prediction Low prediction Figure 43 Predicted amount of MSW until 2030 However, these numbers are based on a Business As Usual scenario and one has to consider the fact that the amount of MSW can come to decrease as an effect of the aim of increasing the recycling of waste. Main components of MSW in Iceland today are food waste (25 %), paper and paper board (29 %), plastic (16 %) and metals and glass (8 %) (Mannvit. Project (2.140.021)). MSW can be used for production of biomethane, biohydrogen and biosyngas. Potential production of biofuel from MSW can be seen in Figure 44, Figure 45 and Table 16. Biofuel production [ton] 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Methane Hydrogen Figure 44 Potential production of biomethane and biohydrogen from MSW Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 45 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Biofuel production from syngas [ton] 35.000 FT-diesel FT-petrol Biohydrogen Biomethanol Bioethanol Figure 45 Potential production of biofuels from syngas produced from MSW Table 16 Potential quantity of biofuels from MSW Biofuel Yield Annual production 2010 - 2030 [kg/ton waste] [ton] Biomethane2 109 7.860-9.700 Biohydrogen3 7 500-620 FT-diesel 65 4.730-5.830 FT-petrol 15 1.090-1.340 Bioethanol from syngas 160 11.550-14.250 Biohydrogen from syngas 59 4.260-5.250 Biomethanol from syngas 336 24.330-30.020 3.4.7 Waste bio oil Waste bio oil can be converted to fatty acid alkyl esters by transesterification reaction. Following types of waste bio oil is considered in this report; Waste vegetable oil (WVO), Waste animal fat (WAF), Waste fish oil from fish waste, Waste fish oil from fish meal plants, Waste products from cod liver oil production and Waste oil from sewage. 2 3 (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, a) (Kapdan & Kargi, 2006) 46 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 3.4.7.1 Waste vegetable oil (WVO) WVO is mainly obtained from food manufactures, food processing plants, restaurants and fast foods. Previous investigations made by Mannvit shows that 5.00-1.000 tons of WVO per year could be collected in Iceland in 2007. This could be expressed as 1,6-3,2 kg WVO per capita per year, which is comparable to numbers from U.S. where the annual production have been estimated to 4 kg per capita. The numbers for WVO were originally based on the amount of vegetable oil imported to Iceland, out of which 30-50% could be recovered as WVO. These numbers were confirmed by data based on personal communication with all restaurants and food production plants in Eyjafjörður, where 75-80 tons of WVO could be collected annually. However, there is known that a considerable part of WVO is disposed into the sewage system, which could affect the total amount available. This source could be worth further investigation (Borkowska, 2009). The production of WVO in 2010 can be estimated to 770 ± 260 ton by assuming that the amount of produced WVO depends on the population growth. The estimated production of WVO in each area can be seen in Figure 46. The numbers are obtained by assuming that the amount of WVO primarily depends on the population. Figure 46 Estimated amount of WVO in different regions in 2010 Figure 47 Ratio of WVO in different regions Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 47 The amount of WVO produced yearly until the year 2030 is estimated by assuming that the amount of WVO primarily is depending on the population growth. The amount of WVO produced in 2030 is estimated to approximately ton 900 ± 300 ton, see Figure 48. 1.000 900 800 700 WVO (ton) 600 500 400 300 200 100 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 0 Figure 48 Predicted amount of WVO in Iceland until the year 2030 The potential production of biofuels from WVO can be seen in Figure 49 and Table 17. 900 Biofuel production [ton] 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 FAME/FAEE HDRD Figure 49 Potential production of biodiesel from WVO Table 17 Potential quantity of biofuels from WVO Biofuel Yield Annual production 2010 - 2030 [kg/ton waste] [ton] Biodiesel (FAME) 900 660-770 HDRD 880 650-750 48 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Earlier investigations show that WVO collected in Akureyri has a lower FFA content than mentioned in the literature. This could be explained by the fact that the cooking oil in Iceland is less used and more often changed compared to other countries. The amount of WVO is assumed to be more or less stable over the year, though with a possible increase during tourist seasons, from June to September, with main peaks in July and August. 3.4.7.2 Waste animal fat (WAF) from meat and slaughter waste WAF has previously been discussed in chapter 3.4.4. 3.4.7.3 Waste fish oil from fish waste Waste fish oil from fish waste has previously been discussed in chapter 3.4.3. 3.4.7.4 Waste fish oil from fish meal plants Earlier studies performed by Mannvit shows an amount of waste fish oil from fishmeal plants of 2.000-2.500 ton in 2007 (Borkowska, 2009). However, currently there is no waste fish oil from fishmeal plants available due to a higher quality of the raw material used today. All raw material is used for the production of fishmeal and fish oil. A couple of years ago, when a lower quality raw material was used, considerable amounts of waste fish oil were available. Then the oil was burned instead of fuel oil (Gunnarsson, 2010) (Andersen, 2010). Since there is no waste fish oil available today, there is a little chance that this condition will change over coming years and this is not considered to be reliable source of raw material for production of biofuels. 3.4.7.5 Waste products from cod liver oil production Lysi hf is the major fish oil processing company in Iceland, and is considered to be the largest regular source of waste fish oil. Among the by-products originating from cod liver oil production are 200.000 L ethyl esters and 3.000 ton soap. The ethyl esters are already used and not taken into further consideration. Soap is the main waste product from cod liver oil production which will be considered in this survey. A soap separator is currently being processed (Halldórsson, 2010). The soaps, which also usually derive as a by-product in biodiesel production, can be esterified and used as biodiesel. It is difficult to make an estimation of the amount of waste from cod liver oil production for the coming decades. According to Árnar Halldórsson, there will be no significant increase of waste until 2015 (Halldórsson, 2010). An assumption is made that the amount of waste will stay constant until the year 2030. Approximately 2.922 ton of biodiesel can be theoretically be produced through esterification of soap available from Lysi hf assuming that approximately 974 g of biodiesel can be produced from 1 kg of soap. 3.4.7.6 Trap grease from sewage The amount of grease in sewage has earlier been estimated to 220 tons per year (Iðntæknistofnun, 2006). There is also a noticeable amount of trap grease from fish meal plants and Lysi hf, as well as WVO from restaurants. This source could be worth further investigation. 3.5 Sewage Sewage can be used for biomethane production. The amount of sewage from households can be estimated to 270 L per capita per day (Leiðbeningar um hönnunarrennsli skólps og ofanvatns, 2008). BOD is typically estimated to 60 g BOD per capita per day. The ratio COD/BOD in household sewage can be estimated to approximately 2. The methane production can be expressed as 0,25 kg CH4/kg COD (Henze, Harremoës, & Jes la Cour Jansen, 2006). The quantity of biomethane production from Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 49 sewage can then roughly be estimated to 9.530 kg CH4/day or 3,5 million kg CH4/year (5,2 million Nm3/year). There is also a considerable amount of sewage produced from various industries and institutes. This could be worth further investigation but is not considered in this investigation. 3.6 Emissions of biogas from landfill sites Landfill gas is currently processed at Álfsnes landfill site by Metan hf. The composition of the landfill gas collected at Álfsnes is approximately 57% methane, 41% carbon dioxide and 2% other compounds (Metan). The production of landfill gas at Álfsnes is expected to continue until the year 2040. Approximately 80% of the gas produced at Álfsnes is collected and used as energy source. In 2006, approximately 500 m3 of landfill gas was collected per hour at Álfsnes landfill site, which is more than 4 million m3 per year and the amount is growing (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c). Other landfill sites suitable for landfill gas processing are Fíflholt in Borgarbyggð, Glerárdalur in Akureyri and Kirkjuferjuhjáleiga in Ölfus (R.P.M. Kamsma, 2003). The amount of landfill gas emitted from Glerárdalur landfill site in Akureyri has been estimated to reach 6,0 million Nm3 in the year 2012. In the year 2045 landfill gas emitted from the landfill site is estimated to 2,0 million Nm3. With an operation of 8.000 hours per year, the total amount of landfill gas produced annually can be estimated to 3,2 Nm3. Generally the concentration of methane is between 50-55%, although first measurements have shown higher concentrations. The annual production of methane gas (92%) can be estimated to 1,6 million to 1,8 million Nm3 per year. The expected method for upgrading of the landfill gas is scrubber, which is the method used at Álfsnes landfill site (Mannvit. Project (2.140.023)). Landfill gas output test in Kirkjuferjuhjálega have been carried out and the first result show that 1,5 million Nm3 of landfill gas can be utilized annually until 2020. The estimated concentration of methane is between 50-55%. The amount of landfill gas emitted from the landfills sites mentioned above can roughly be estimated to approximately 9 million Nm3. The landfill gas is containing approximately 55% methane, which would give an amount of 5 million Nm3 of methane (3,3 million kg CH4/year). 50 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 4 Summary production of potential biofuel This chapter will summarize the potential production of various types of biofuels from biomass. The large range is due to type of plant considered for cultivation. The potential production of bioethanol can be seen in Table 18. The theoretical potential bioethanol production is estimated to reach 1.00079.400 TJLHV in the end of the forecast period. A more realistic number may be estimated to 30030.500 TJLHV. Table 18 Overview of bioethanol production Bioethanol (theoretical) 2010-2030 [ton] Bioethanol (theoretical) 2010-2030 [TJLHV] Bioethanol (in practice) 2010-2030 [ton] Bioethanol (in practice) 2010-2030 [TJLHV] Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) 3.110 80 1.200 30 Competitive 8.440 230 3.260 90 Competitive Hemp 19.230 520 7.420 200 Competitive 2.915.610 78430 1.125.450 30280 Competitive 6.520 180 2.510 70 Paper and paperboard Timber 5.890-13.790 160-370 2.260-5.300 60-140 9.120-11.250 250-300 Garden waste 2.590-3.200 70-90 1.000-1.230 30 Total (min) 27.230-37.870 730-1.020 190-280 Total (max) 2.939.7302.950.370 79.08079.370 6.96010.230 1.131.2101.134.480 Perennial grass Waste hay 30.430-30.520 An overview of potential total production of biodiesel from various types of biomass can be seen in Table 19. The potential production of FAME in the year 2030 may be estimated to 400 TJLHV and the production of HDRD 300 TJLHV. Table 19 Overview of biodiesel production Biodiesel (FAME) Biodiesel (FAME) Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Biodiesel (HDRD) Biodiesel 51 (HDRD) [ton] [TJLHV] [ton] [TJLHV] Oil seeds 4.670 180 4.110 180 Fish waste 50 2 50 2 2.020-2.340 80-90 1.980-2.290 90-100 660-770 30 650-750 30 2.920 110 10.32010.750 390-410 6780-7200 290-310 Meat waste WVO and slaughter Waste from cod liver oil production Total The potential total production of biomethane from various types of biomass can be seen in Table 20. The potential production of biomethane may be estimated to reach 6.300-96.100 TJLHV in the end of the forecast period. Table 20 Overview of biomethane production Biomethane 2010-2030 [ton] Biomethane 2010-2030 [TJLHV] Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) 1.740 90 Competitive 2.930 150 Competitive Hemp 11.840 590 Competitive 1.796.810 89840 Competitive Waste hay 4.020 200 Manure 16.740 840 2.310-5.400 120-270 2.710 140 1.830-2.130 90-110 890-1.100 50-60 7.860-9.700 390-490 Perennial grass Paper and paperboard Fish waste Meat and waste Garden waste MSW 52 slaughter Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Emission of biogas from landfill sites Sewage 3.500 180 3.340 170 Total (min) 120.770-126.200 6.040-6.310 Total (max) 1.915.840-1.921.270 95.790-96.060 An overview of potential total production of biohydrogen from various types of biomass can be seen in Table 21. The potential production of biohydrogen may be estimated to reach 220-15.500 TJLHV in 2030. Table 21 Overview of biohydrogen production Biohydrogen 2010-2030 [ton] Biohydrogen 2010-2030 [TJLHV] Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) 130 20 Competitive 360 40 Competitive Hemp 830 100 Competitive 125.530 15250 Competitive 280 30 Paper and paperboard 250-590 30-70 Garden waste 110-140 10-20 MSW 500-620 60-80 Total (min) 1.280-1.770 160-220 Total (max) 126.670-127.160 15.390-15.450 Perennial grass Waste hay Potential production of biofuels from syngas is shown in Table 22. The production of biofuels from syngas is competitive. The potential production of FT-diesel is estimated to reach 810-51.600 TJLHV and the production of FT-petrol 190-12.000 TJLHV. Approximately 1.200-79.200 TJLHV of bioethanol, 2.100-131.900 TJLHV biohydrogen or 1.900-123.500 TJLHV biomethanol may be produced. Table 22 Overview of biofuel production from syngas FT-diesel 2010-2030 FT-petrol 2010-2030 Bioethanol 2010-2030 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Biohydrogen 2010-2030 Biomethanol 2010-2030 53 [ton] [ton] [ton] [ton] [ton] Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) 1.160 270 2.840 1.050 5.990 Competitive 2.710 620 6.630 2.440 13.970 Competitive Hemp 6.010 1.380 14.680 5.410 30.920 Competitive 1.188.040 273.190 2.902.050 2.069.820 6.113.250 Competitive 2.660 610 6.460 2.390 13.680 Paper and 1.790-4.200 paperboard Timber 3.110-3.830 410-970 1.610-3.780 9.220-21.580 2.800-3.450 Garden waste 1.040-1.280 240-290 15.98019.710 5.340-6.590 MSW 4.730-5.830 Total (min) 14.48018.960 1.201.3601.205.840 1.0901.340 3.3304.360 276.250277.280 4.36010.190 7.5509.310 2.5203.110 11.55014.250 35.28046.170 2.934.4902.945.380 Perennial grass Waste hay Total (max) 710-880 930-1.150 4.260-5.250 13.04017.070 1.081.8101.085.850 24.33030.020 74.53097.570 6.181.8006.204.830 Table 23 Overview of biofuel production from syngas FT-diesel FT-petrol Bioethanol Biohydrogen Biomethanol [TJLHV] [TJLHV] [TJLHV] [TJLHV] [TJLHV] Oil seed plants (stems and leaves) Cereals (straw) 50 10 80 130 120 Competitive 120 30 180 300 280 Competitive Hemp 260 60 400 660 620 Competitive 50.850 11.860 78.070 129.980 121.650 Competitive 110 30 170 290 270 80-180 20-40 120-270 200-460 180-430 130-160 30-40 200-250 340-420 320-390 Perennial grass Waste hay Paper and paperboard Timber 54 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Garden waste 40-60 10 70-80 110-140 110-130 MSW 200-250 50-60 310-380 520-640 480-600 Total (min) 620-810 150-190 950-1.240 1.590-2.080 1.480-1.940 Total (max) 51.42051.610 11.99012.030 78.94079.230 131.440131.930 123.020123.480 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 55 5 Conclusions There are many types of biomass that can be used for production of biofuels, and this report focuses on biomass available in Iceland. The raw materials have been divided into three main types; Biomass obtained by cultivation, Organic waste from agriculture and Organic waste from household, industry and services. Sewage and emissions from landfill sites are also discussed. A main objective of introducing biofuels instead of fossil fuels is to lower the GHG emissions. Of great importance when considering production of biofuels is the energy input vs. energy output. At this stage of project, only the total potential quantity of biomass is evaluated. For cultivation of biomass all potential land is counted for, which however would never be considered as realistic. Out from these facts, the potential production of each type of biofuel has been considered, independently of other possible production. However, one also has to consider competition of raw materials as well as energy input and cost when evaluating potential production. The aim of this report is primarily to present an overview of potential biomass available, and how much energy is possible to obtain from this biomass. The raw material has further been divided into different regions when appropriate. However, at this stage of project, only the total potential production of biofuels in Iceland is considered. The amount and origin of raw material is however of great importance when considering the feasibility of biofuel production. When considering the potential of various raw materials the cost and energy input has to be allowed for. The cost of waste is mainly due to collecting and transporting, while costs for cultivation are generally higher. A prediction of energy usage for vehicles can be seen in Figure 50. Data obtained from Orkuspárnefnd (Mannvit. Project (1.010.208)). 2500 Energy [GWh] 2000 1500 Gasoline Diesel 1000 Other 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 Figure 50 Prediction of energy usage for vehicles 56 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 When estimating the potential biofuel production in Iceland, and comparing this to total energy usage for transport, it can clearly be seen that there is more than enough of biomass in Iceland to produce the energy needed, see Figure 51. 40 35 Energy usage Bioethanol 30 Energy [TWh] Biodiesel (FAME) 25 Biodiesel (HDRD) Biomethane 20 Biohydrogen FT-diesel 15 FT-petrol 10 Ethanol from syngas Hydrogen from syngas 5 Methanol from syngas 0 2030 Figure 51 Overview of potential biofuel production from biomass compared to energy usage for transportation Figure 52 shows potential production of biofuels when only waste biomass is considered as raw material. It can clearly be seen that using waste biomass only is not enough to reach the energy usage, and then no energy input is considered, only potential outcome from waste biomass. 4000 3500 Energy usage Bioethanol 3000 Energy [GWh] Biodiesel (FAME) 2500 Biodiesel (HDRD) Biomethane 2000 Biohydrogen FT-diesel 1500 FT-petrol 1000 Ethanol from syngas Hydrogen from syngas 500 Methanol from syngas 0 2030 Figure 52 Overview of potential biofuel production from waste biomass compared to energy usage for transportation At this stage of project only an approximate investment cost for biofuel production is given. However, care should be taken when using these numbers, since also the operational cost is of great Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 57 importance when evaluating the feasibility of the process. Also the production of valuable byproducts should be considered. An overview of approximate investment cost for biofuel production can be seen in Table 24. For biodiesel produced from waste a recovery of 90% is assumed. The same applies for biodiesel from oilseed, plus that an oil content of 40% is counted for. The recovery of biomethane from biomass varies widely and is assumed to be between 150-600 kg/ton biomass dw. For bioethanol a yield of 198 kg/ton biomass dw is counted for. Table 24 Approximate investment cost for biofuel production Investment cost Biodiesel (FAME) from waste Biodiesel (FAME) from oil seed Biodiesel (HDRD)6 0,68 M€4 Investment cost [€/kg biomass] 0,34 Investment cost [€/kJ biofuel] 9,9 Biomass capacity 6,2 M€5 0,41 30 >15.000 ton/year Biomethane 4,8 M€7 0,48 16-64 10.000 ton/year Bioethanol 933 M€8 1,3 238 2.000 ton/day 16,5 M€10 0,17 <2.000 ton/year Biohydrogen9 Biosyngas 100.000 ton/year Production cost of bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass have been estimated by Hamelinck et al. to between 0,80 and 1,05 €/L in 2003. Further, future costs were projected to be around 0,51 €/L after 5 years, 0,30 €/L after 10-15 years, and reach 0,20 €/L after more than 20 years. This is based on that a number of technological advances will be achieved (Hamelinck, Hooijdonk, & Faaij, 2005). NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) have reported product value11 for cellulosic ethanol to be from 0,69 €/L to 0,92 €/L, depending on the pretreatment technology used (Kazi, et al., 2010). Data presented recently in Denmark shows a current production cost of ethanol as 0,71 €/L 12 (Bredsdorff, 2010). This shows that the technology is developing slower than previously suggested and further advances still need to be achieved. 4 (Mannvit. Project (7.009.269)) (Mannvit. Project (7.009.269)) 6 No numbers found 7 (Svæðisáætlun höfuðborgarsvæðið, c) (Mannvit. Project (2.140.023)) 8 (Hamelinck, Hooijdonk, & Faaij, 2005) 9 No numbers found 10 (Guðmundsson M. ) 11 defined as value of the product needed for a net present value of zero with a 10% internal rate of return 12 nd Exchange rate EUR/DKK=0,1340 (22 September 2010) 5 58 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Valuable by-products are obtained from biofuel production. By-products from oil plants include protein-rich meal that can be used in the animal feed industry or as organic fertilizer. Other byproducts are residues including phospholipids (lecithins), proteins and carbohydrates. By-products available from production of FAME is crude glycerol (approximately 100 g glycerol/kg of FA glycerides), which can be refined technical or pharmaceutical grade, used as energy source or as raw material for biomethane production. Propane is obtained as a by-product from HDRD production (approximately 43 g propane/kg of FA glycerides). Main by-products from lignocellulosic biomass are lignin which can be used as energy source and residues from fermentation which may be used as feedstock for biomethane production. Hydrogen is often produced as a by-product in bacterial fermentation. Sludge from biomethane production can be used as organic fertilizer or soil enhancer. Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 59 6 References Andersen, J. P. (2010, March 4). FÍF, personal communication, phone call . Biogasportalen. (2010). Retrieved from http://biogasportalen.se/ Borkowska, S. (2009). Biodiesel potential in Iceland. Carlsson, M., & Uldal, M. (2009). SGC 200 - Substrathandbok för biogasproduktion. Svenskt Gastekniskt Center. Elkem. (n.d.). Retrieved April 26, 2010, from Elkem: http://elkem.is/samfelagid/umhverfid/ Fish processing, a. (n.d.). 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Hallsdóttir, Kristín Harðardóttir, Jón Guðmundsson, Arnór Snorrason and Jóhann þórsson, UST: 173. 62 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Appendix Appendix A – Map showing the municipalities in Iceland Appendix B – Data for different regions in Iceland Appendix C – Fish species defined for estimation of fish waste Appendix D – Energy value and energy density for biofuels Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 63 Appendix A Overview over the different municipalities in Iceland (Landmælingar Íslands) 64 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Appendix B st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for each region Region Capital area South peninsula South West East Northeast Eyjafjörður Northwest Westfjords Total Inhabitants 200,907 21,359 23,879 15,370 12,459 4,930 23,970 7,490 7,266 317,630 Area km2 1,043 818 24,688 9,522 21,986 18,439 4,255 13,105 8,842 102,698 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for Capital area Capital area Reykjavík Kópavogur Seltjarnarnes Garðabær Hafnarfjörður Sveitarfélagið Álftanes Mosfellsbær Kjósarhreppur Total Inhabitants Area km2 118326 273 30357 80 4395 2 10643 71 25913 143 2523 5 8553 185 197 284 200907 1043 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for South peninsula South peninsula Reykjanesbær Grindavíkurbær Sandgerði Sveitarfélagið Garður Sveitarfélagið Vogar Total Inhabitants Area km2 14091 145 2837 425 1710 62 1515 21 1206 165 21359 818 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 65 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for South region South Inhabitants Area km2 Sveitarfélagið Árborg 7811 158 Mýrdalshreppur 510 755 Skaftárhreppur 445 6946 Ásahreppur 190 2942 Rangárþing eystra 1745 1841 Rangárþing ytra 1543 3188 Hrunamannahreppur 788 1375 Hveragerði 2291 9 Sveitarfélagið Ölfus 1952 737 Grímsnes- og Grafningshreppur 415 900 Skeiða- og Gnúpverjahreppur 517 2231 Bláskógabyggð 935 3300 Flóahreppur 602 289 Vestmannaeyjar 4135 17 Total 23879 24688 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for West region West Akranes Skorradalshreppur Hvalfjarðarsveit Borgarbyggð Grundarfjarðarbær Helgafellssveit Stykkishólmur Eyja- og Miklaholtshreppur Snæfellsbær Dalabyggð Total 66 Inhabitants Area km2 6549 9 61 216 624 482 3542 4926 904 148 63 243 1092 10 139 383 1702 684 694 2421 15370 9522 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for East region East Seyðisfjörður Fjarðabyggð Vopnafjarðarhreppur Fljótsdalshreppur Borgarfjarðarhreppur Breiðdalshreppur Djúpavogshreppur Fljótsdalshérað Sveitarfélagið Hornafjörður Total Inhabitants Area km2 706 213 4641 1164 683 1903 89 1516 134 441 210 452 443 1133 3467 8884 2086 6280 12459 21986 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for Northeast Northeast Norðurþing Skútustaðahreppur Tjörneshreppur Þingeyjarsveit Svalbarðshreppur Langanesbyggð Total Inhabitants Area km2 2926 3729 374 6036 56 199 942 5988 111 1155 521 1332 4930 18439 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for Eyjafjörður Eyjafjörður Akureyri Fjallabyggð Dalvíkurbyggð Arnarneshreppur Eyjafjarðarsveit Hörgárbyggð Svalbarðastrandahreppur Grýtubakkahreppur Total Inhabitants Area km2 17573 138 2066 364 1949 598 178 88 1025 1775 429 805 413 55 337 432 23970 4255 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 67 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for Northwest region Northwest Bæjarhreppur Sveitarfélagið Skagafjörður Húnaþing vestra Blönduóssbær Sveitarfélagið Skagaströnd Skagabyggð Húnavatnshreppur Akrahreppur Total Inhabitants Area km2 96 513 4131 4180 1116 2506 882 183 519 53 106 489 431 3817 209 1364 7490 13105 st Number of inhabitants (1 Jan 2010) and area for Westfjords Westfjords Bolungarvík Ísafjarðarbær Reykhólahreppur Tálknafjarðarhreppur Vesturbyggð Súðavíkurhreppur Árneshreppur Kaldrananeshreppur Strandabyggð Total 68 Inhabitants Area km2 970 109 3899 2379 291 1090 299 176 935 1339 202 749 50 707 112 387 508 1906 7266 8842 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 Appendix C Fish species defined for estimation of fish waste Included fish species Cod Haddock Saithe Redfish Oceanic redfish Catfish Spotted catfish Ling Blue ling Tusk Grenadier Starry ray Monk Skate Whiting Silver smelt Spiny dogfish Other demersal Halibut Greenland halibut Plaice Lemon sole Witch Megrim Dab American plaice Other flatfish Excluded fish species Greenland shark Herring Norwegian spring-spawning herring Capelin Capelin roe Blue whiting Other pelagics Lobster Shrimp Scallop Iceland cyprine Other shellfish Miscellaneous catch Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030 69 Appendix D Energy value and energy density for biofuels (Mannvit. Project (1.010.208)) Energy value (LHV) [MJ/kg] Energy density (LHV) [MJ/dm3] Bioethanol 26,9 21,4 Biohydrogen 121,5 2,913 Biomethane 50,0 10,514 Biodiesel (FAME) 38,0 33,6 Biodiesel (HDRD) 42,8 36,3 Gasoline 43,4 31,2 Biomethanol 19,9 15,8 13 14 700 bar 300 bar 70 Mannvit – Biofuel production in Iceland Survey of potential raw materials and yields to 2030