2015_0505 eSports Market Brief DRAFT

Transcription

| Playable media & games market research
ESPORTS
THE MARKET BRIEF
2015
Photo: GameWatcher.com
1
Executive summary
★Korea and China continue to dominate $612M
global eSports market. The ongoing investment
in N. America and Europe by digital-only
publishers drives overall growth and audience
expansion.
★The global eSports audience is 134 million
strong, and growing. Investment in innovative
business models, platforms and derivative
businesses further spurs growth in competitive
gaming.
★Competitive gaming is a marketing strategy,
not a revenue driver. In addition to traditional
marketing efforts, organizing events and
streaming content improves awareness and
retention.
★Thirteen percent (13%) of live-stream viewers
watch eSports. Almost half of eSports viewers
in the U.S. use Twitch.tv, the world’s largest
live streaming site for game content. Roughly
the same amount of eSports viewers
participate in some type of competitive
gaming, mostly through online platforms.
★Corporate sponsorships total $111 million in
North America (2015E). Brand owners and
advertisers are expected to adapt to emergent
forms of entertainment, which will grow
sponsorship deals across the segment.
Following the lead of early movers, we
anticipate an increase in ad spending by
consumer packaged goods, automotive and
technology brands.
eSports Market Brief, May 2015 | Copyright © 2015 SuperData Research. All rights reserved. | www.superdataresearch.com
2
Note from the analyst
Competitive gaming is a spectacular phenomenon that is changing game
publishing. Valued at $621 million, most of the worldwide revenues today
come from advertisers and corporate sponsors. But eSports also offers
publishers an opportunity to expand the touchpoints around their games
and give fans news way to engage with their favorite characters and enter
into a deeper experience.
eSports is something that we have not seen before.
In many ways competitive gaming seems, at least at first glance, to
resemble traditional sports. But to think that a new phenomenon like
eSports can be described in terms of the old is to misunderstand it
entirely. The intersection of technology, fandom and interactive
entertainment is presenting us with new ways of sharing experiences on a
global scale. And with 134 million eSports enthusiasts worldwide, this is
no longer a niche activity, but a shift in the way people consume games.
In this report we map out the industry’s fundamentals, identify key value
chain participants and take a look at the shape of things to come.
[email protected]
3
Korea and China continue to dominate $612M global eSports market
The ongoing investment in N. America and Europe by digital-only publishers drives overall growth and audience expansion.
Worldwide market for eSports by region, 2015E
Total worldwide market for
eSports, 2015E
Europe
$72
N. America
$143
million
million
Asia
$374
million
Rest of World
$24
million
$612M
Asia still leads the global
eSports market with $374
million in annual revenues
(61%). In the coming year,
we expect to see the
fruits of the continued
investment in North
America, Western and
Eastern Europe by game
companies like Riot
Games and Wargaming.
4
The global eSports audience is 134 million strong, and growing
Investment in innovative business models, platforms and derivative businesses further spurs growth in competitive gaming.
eSports value chain participants
PARTICIPANTS
PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
DESCRIPTION
EXAMPLES
The various games in which competitive gamers compete, ranging from shooters Titles: League of Legends, (Riot Games), World of
to multi-player online battle arena.
Tanks (Wargaming), SMITE (Hi-Rez Studios), Call of
Duty (Activision Blizzard), DotA 2 (Valve).
Teams: NewBee, Evil Genuises, Natus Vincere,
Professional teams that compete in tournaments. Members practice up to 8
hours a day and receive earnings through endorsement deals or by becoming a
professional for a particular game.
Invictus Gaming, Fnatic.
Organizers: Host both off- and online competitions, and generate revenue
Organizers: Major League Gaming, ESL (Turtle
through corporate sponsorship, membership fees, merchandise and ticket sales. Beach).
eSports Betting: Facilitate real-money betting on the outcome of eSports events. eSports betting: Alphadraft, Vulcan
Channels: Facilitate the (live) broadcast of competitions and pro-player videos.
Examples: Twitch (Amazon), Azubu, YouTube.
Tournament infrastructure: Offer necessary platforms to host both amateur and
professional tournaments.
Brand holders and advertisers that pay teams, league organizers and publishers
in exchange for displaying their logos, products, or naming a competition.
AUDIENCE
Channels: Twitch (Amazon), Azubu, YouTube,
MobCrush, Hitbox.
2015E
134,287,236
eSports viewers
worldwide
Infrastructure: Xfire, Battlefy
★ Consumer Packaged Goods: Coca-Cola, Red Bull
★ Automotive: Nissan, Volkswagen
★ Technology: Razr, Intel, NVIDIA
★ Consumer Electronics: Logitech, Samsung, HTC
The combination of competitive gaming’s rising popularity and recent acquisitions has triggered investments across scalable market
segments. The current market for eSports knows a wide variety of participants that each bring their own specialization. As the overall
business model begins to solidify, the market will see more vertical integration and consolidation.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
Competitive gaming is a marketing strategy, not a revenue driver
In addition to traditional marketing efforts, organizing events and streaming content improves awareness and retention.
“We lose a lot of money on eSports. It's something, currently, that we do to drive
return or profitability… if we bring value to our players, they'll reward us with
engagement.”
— Marc Merrill, Co-Founder and President of Riot Games
Most viewed genres by preference (US)
Other
14%
MOBAs
16%
FirstPerson
Shooters
52%
Sports
18%
Top viewed franchises in eSports (US)
Call of Duty
League of Legends
Halo
Madden
Battlefield
Warcraft
NBA
FIFA
Counter Strike
Starcraft
FPS and Sports games are growing as eSports thanks to Western audiences.
While real-time strategy (RTS) and multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) games
dominate eSports worldwide, new genres are emerging with changing demographics. In
the US, only 5% of viewers follow RTS games while more than half follow first-person
shooters (FPS). Call of Duty, which began hosting official tournaments in 2013, is
currently the most popular franchise among American eSports viewers.
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
3%
28%
Riot has invested over $10 million in prize pools in just
two years. Operating at a loss, publishers like Riot and
Activision Blizzard have continued to host costly tournaments
and devote large resources develop eSports. Their continued
support for competitive gaming has elevated the industry and
helped sustain interest in their games.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
Publishers invest in competitive gaming for long-term retention
Offering an expanded user experience that crosses into both digital and physical improves the bottom line.
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
Last year, fans of Dota 2, a popular
multiplayer online battle arena game, added
$9,331,105 to its annual championship’s
base prize pool of $1.6 million.
Going beyond the mere development of a
game, companies like Valve have made a
substantial investment in hosting tournaments
to expand the user experience. This has
allowed both its monthly active user base to
grow, and fans to reciprocate by enlarging the
championship prize pool, thereby further
feeding the game’s exposure and marketing
buzz.
Monthly active
PRIZE POOL user base at time
of tournament
2012
2013
2014
$1,600,000
$2,874,407
$10,931,103
751,758
6,218,943
9,640,848
For the 2015 championship, fans have already
contributed 23% more than they did at this
point last year.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
Teams and players build massive audiences, and earnings follow
Individual players with a large fan base earn more from endorsements than top performers do from prize money.
BRANDS
While top players can earn millions in prizes, only 40% of professional players make a
living off of gaming. Since prize pools only go to a small portion of teams, most players
AUDIENCE
earn a modest salary ranging from $12,000 to $40,000 a year. Players are required to
practice eight hours a day, but can drill up to 16 hours a day before a major event. Low
salaries contribute to a high burnout rate, as many players quit to pursue other careers.
Top players world wide by prize earnings (millions)
One-third of US players
consider teams the most
important factor when
deciding which eSports
matches to watch.
Veteran teams like Evil
Geniuses and Fnatic have
become recognizable
brands, offering consistency
and longevity to viewers
and sponsors alike. Most
teams are supported by a
handful of endorsements;
however, corporations like
SK Telecom and Samsung
have assembled “company
teams” that receive funding
from a single sponsor.
Hao (Chen, Zhihao)
Banana (Jiao, Wang)
SanSheng (Wang, Zhaohui)
Mu (Zhang, Pan)
xiao8 (Zhang, Ning)
Puppey (Clement Ivanov)
Dendi (Danil Ishutin)
XBOCT (Oleksandr Dashkevych)
UNiVeRsE (Saahil Arora)
ppd (Peter Dager)
$1,194,357
$1,192,049
$1,186,074
$1,174,610
$1,146,794
$667,332
$606,839
$603,893
$586,149
$581,748
Top teams world wide by prize earnings (millions)
Newbee
Evil Geniuses
Natus Vincere
Invictus Gaming
Fnatic
SK Telecom T1
Vici Gaming
Samsung
Alliance
SK Gaming
Cloud 9
$4,189,076
$3,571,494
$3,002,033
$2,686,964
$2,615,720
$2,487,139
$2,181,955
$2,100,947
$1,931,063
$1,819,079
$5,525,714
Former professional
player Wei “CaoMei”
Han-Dong now earns
over $800,000 a year by
streaming.
Even as sponsorship deals
continue to grow, popular
players can earn more by
live-streaming their
gameplay. In 2014,
professional League of
Legends player Wei
“CaoMei” Han-Dong retired
from eSports and signed a
contract with ZhanQi TV to
stream 90 hours a month in
exchange for an annual
salary of 5 million RMB (over
$800,000 USD).
Earnings source: www.esportsearnings.com
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
Merchandising offers a valuable revenue stream for eSports teams
Apparel is proving particularly popular among eSports fans, including hoodies, T-shirts, hats and jackets.
Apparel purchased by eSports fans in Germany, France, the UK and the US,
organized by clothing size
$42.30
The average size of a transaction
on eSports merchandise across
key Western markets breaches
$40. Loyal fans support specific
teams and make regular purchases,
thereby providing teams a welcome
additional revenue stream. Topselling categories include apparel,
headphones, mice and mousepads.
Shown: Apparel sizes for clothing purchased by eSports enthusiasts in the United States, Germany,
France and the UK in January, 2015. Total sample size n=10,076. All currencies recalculated to USD.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
After 15 years, pro eSports organizations break into the mainstream
Tournament organizers, broadcasters and leagues serve as industry advocates, playing a central role in eSports’ popularity.
Leagues organize and host a variety of competitive gaming events both on and
offline, broadcasting tournaments via online streaming. The ESL (Europe),
Major League Gaming (N. America) and the Korean eSports Association
(South Korea) all promote and organize eSports events in return for a
share of the marketing spend by brand holders and advertisers. In
addition, league organizations also generate revenue via merchandise and
ticket sales.
MLG’s recently opened 14,000 square foot stadium in Columbus, Ohio.
$203M
Total advertising earnings
for Korean eSports
television broadcasters
Ongamenet and MBC Game
Advertising revenue represents
the bulk of income for television
cable companies (63%), in
addition to subscription fees
(29%), according to the Korea
eSports Association (2007). By
comparison IP-based television
earned only $4.3 million in the
same year.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
Live streaming provides eSports with a global audience
The introduction of live streaming has allowed the global eSports audience to expand more than eight-fold.
Thirteen percent (13%) of all live-stream viewers watch
eSports. Almost half of eSports viewers in the U.S. use
Twitch.tv, the world’s largest live-streaming site for game
content. Most spectators are active participants in the
eSports community: roughly half of eSports viewers
participate in some type of competitive gaming, mostly
online through platforms like MLG’s GameBattles portal.
“The games that are popular today [in
eSports] were designed to be fun to play,
and not necessarily fun to watch.”
The decision to use live streaming and eSports as a
central component of a game’s marketing strategy
changes the design requirements. Broadcasting digital
video content live over the Internet, called live streaming,
has become so central to competitive gaming that titles
like SMITE have this functionality built into the game.
Most visited streaming sites among US
eSports viewers
Twitch.tv
36%
ESL.tv
6%
MLG.tv
7%
Dailymotion
13%
GamingLive.tv
12%
Hitbox.tv Azubu.tv
7%
9%
Ustream.tv
9%
TITLE
Online viewers during most
recent championship
SMITE
League of Legends
DotA2
2.9M
20M
27M
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
Brands fund the bulk of eSports revenue through sponsorships
Despite strong direct consumer monetization via merchandise and events, indirect revenues account for 81% of market.
Corporate sponsorships total $111 million in North
America (2015E). Brand owners and advertisers
Indirect and direct revenue generated from
eSports enthusiasts, 2015E: NORTH AMERICA
are expected to adapt to emergent forms of
entertainment, which will grow sponsorship deals INDIRECT (81%)
across the segment. Following the lead of early
movers, we anticipate an increase in ad spending
by consumer packaged goods, automotive and
Corporate
technology brands.
sponsorships*
In 2014 eSports fans of DoTA 2 contributed more
than two-thirds to the prize money for its annual
championship. The sale of merchandise both via
$111.1M
DIRECT (19%)
N. America
$143
million
eCommerce and at events generates $11 million
in the US this year. Ticket sales are the smallest
category of direct consumer revenue with $4.5
million.
Prize pool
contributions
$11.8
Merchandise
$11M
Ticket sales
$4.5M
* Corporate sponsorships calculated on a cash basis (rather than on a value basis) to
accurately reflect the total amount of sponsorship money currently flowing into the North
American eSports market. The total figure includes sponsorship deals, advertising on digital
channels like Twitch and YouTube, publisher-incurred marketing expenses and other forms of
eSports advertising. In assessing this number for the US market, SuperData spoke with
companies that are actively sponsoring eSports events.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
As prize pools grow, so too does the number of eSports viewers
Accessibility and continued investment in competitive gaming is beginning to shape a strong global audience.
Global VIEWING AUDIENCE for competitive
gaming (all channels) and PRIZE POOLS
As more people
watch eSports,
2015E
134
the stakes
get higher
million
2015E
$42
million
2010
2011
73K
ATTENDEES AT THE
2014 INTEL EXTREME
MASTERS FINALS
2012
2013
72%
PERCENT OF US
ESPORTS FANS WHO
ATTEND LIVE EVENTS
2014
2015E
3
per
year
NUMBER OF TIMES US LIVE
SPECTATORS ATTEND AN
ESPORTS EVENT
More than 12 million people attended live
events in the US and Western Europe in 2014. As
eSports crowds grow, events have begun
cropping up at conferences like PAX,
GamesCom and even ComiCon. In addition,
dedicated eSports venues, or “arenas”, have
been built in South Korea, China, England,
Ukraine, Sweden and the United States.
North America and Europe are nascent but fastgrowing markets. Since 2011, eSports have
been growing in the west exponentially. In
addition to live-streaming sites and online
console devices, organizations like Major
League Gaming in the US and the Electronic
Sports League in Europe have helped provide
the necessary infrastructure for the space to
thrive.
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PUBLISHERS
TEAMS
LEAGUES
PLATFORMS
BRANDS
AUDIENCE
eSports fans spend $200 a month on games and hardware
The core audience that regularly watches competitive gaming consists of young, affluent men.
American eSports fans purchase three full games per
month. Viewers also spend more than half of their
monthly gaming budget on additional content and
peripheral devices like headphones and controllers. On
average, US viewers spend $125 a month on games
and in-app purchases and $58 on peripherals.
Audience profile
eSports viewer spend
by category (US)
Full games
In-game purchases
Peripheral devices
Over half of adult eSports viewers are younger than 35.
The novelty of online gaming has attracted younger
viewers, including teenagers that are more immersed in
online video content. However, as generations grow up
with video games, eSports will appeal slow bing to
appeal to an older demographic.
Only two of the top 200 grossing eSports players are
female. To address gender disparity, a growing number
of organizations like Blizzard and the International
eSports Federation have begun hosting women only
leagues to create a more welcoming environment for
female players and spectators.
32%
$200
Monthly spend
on games and
hardware
44%
24%
87%
male
13%
female
$76k 89%
AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD
INCOME
VIEWERS WHO BUY AT LEAST
ONE GAME A MONTH
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About the Analysts
Joost van Dreunen is CEO and co-founder of SuperData Research.
As one of the first academics to study video games, Joost also has over fifteen
years of commercial research experience in interactive entertainment and
technology industries. Before receiving a doctorate from Columbia University on
the topic, Joost worked as an analyst on both the financial and consumer-side of
the games industry for a variety of research outfits. Anticipating the shift to digital
games early on, he founded SuperData in 2009. Joost is a recurrent speaker at
major industry events such as GDC, CES and Casual Connect, and is regularly
quoted in both industry publications and mainstream press.
In addition to his business adventures, Joost teaches at the NYU Game Center
and the Stern School of Business.
[email protected]
Senior Analyst, Consumer Insights
Research Associate
Stephanie Llamas
Carlos Sanmiguel
15
Company summary
SuperData provides relevant market data and insight on digital games and
playable media. Founded by veteran games industry researchers,
SuperData covers the market for free-to-play gaming, digital console,
mobile, PC downloadable, gaming video content and eSports.
Monthly analyses and industry reports using digital point-of-sale data.
Using digital point-of-sale data received from publishers, developers and
payment service providers, we base our analyses on the monthly spending
of 37 million paying digital gamers, worldwide.
Understand what people play, connect to and spend on. Our research combines
transaction-level data with qualitative consumer insight. Our leadership
team has experience spanning across major research firms, including NPD,
Nielsen, DFC Intelligence, Comscore, Experian, Jupiter and Forrester.
A next gen approach for next gen entertainment. Our customer base includes
legacy publishers (e.g. Activision/Blizzard, Ubisoft), digital-only publishers
(e.g. Nexon, Tencent, Wargaming), media companies (e.g. Google, CocaCola) and industry service providers (e.g. PayPal, Visa, GameStop).
16
Contact
CEO
Joost van Dreunen, Ph.D.
[email protected]
Senior Analyst, Consumer Insights
Stephanie Llamas
[email protected]
401 Park Ave South, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10016
+1 (646) 248 5240
www.superdataresearch.com
Twitter @_SuperData
17

2015_0505 eSports Market Brief DRAFT

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