national meteorological administration

Transcription

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION
BOARD
Dr. Ion SANDU
Director General
Dr. Cornel SOCI
Executive-Scientific
Director for Meteorology
Dr. Gheorghe STANCALIE Dr. Ion Victor PESCARU
Executive Director for
Executive-Scientific Director
Information Technology
for Research Development
Ec. Margareta Mateescu
Executive Director for
Economic Management
Ion POIANA
Director of the
National School of Meteorology
REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTRES
Ioan MISA
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre Banat-Crisana
Str. Gheorghe Adam, nr. 15, Timisoara
Tel.: 0256-220084; Fax: 0256-220084
e-mail: [email protected]
Liviu SARARU
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre Wallahia
(Muntenia)
Sos. Bucuresti-Ploiesti, nr. 97, Bucharest
Tel.: 3502481; Fax: 3502481
Marius SANTA
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre
Transylvania-North
Str. Vanatorului, nr. 17, Cluj
Tel.: 0264-530988; Fax: 0264-530988
Constantin DRACSINEANU
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre Moldavia
Str. Vascauteanu, nr. 10, Iasi
Tel.: 0232-214049; Fax: 0232-214049
Ion POPESCU
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre
Transylvania-South
Str. Somesului, nr. 49, Sibiu
Tel.: 0269-211795; Fax: 0269-211795
Dumitru SARAFU
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre Dobrudja
B-dul Mamaia, nr. 300, Constanta
Tel.: 0241-542459; Fax: 0241-542459
Ladislau LUP
Director
Regional Meteorological Centre Oltenia
Str. Brestei, nr. 3A, Craiova
Tel.: 0251-466601; Fax: 0251-466601
CONTENTS
FOREWORD ........................................................................................................................ 3
IMPORTANT EVENTS IN 2009 ........................................................................................... 5
METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE YEAR 2009 ................................... 9
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE YEAR 2009 .................................................. 11
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION
OF THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2008-2009 ................................................................................... 13
BASIC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES ................................................................................ 17
OBSERVATION SYSTEM ................................................................................................................ 19
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ............................................................................................................ 19
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS ................................................................................ 19
NIVO-METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS ................................................................................. 20
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS .......................................................................................................... 20
RADAR OBSERVATIONS ................................................................................................................ 22
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS .......................................................................................................... 22
WEATHER FORECAST .................................................................................................................... 23
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST .......................................................................................... 27
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST ........................................................................................ 29
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM ............................................ 31
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA FUND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM .................................... 32
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES .................................................................................................. 35
NUMERICAL MODELLING .............................................................................................................. 37
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE .......................................................................................... 45
IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON CROPS ....................................................... 49
REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS ........................................... 53
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES ................................................................................................. 57
NATIONAL SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY ............................................................................ 61
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMMES/PROJECTS .................65
FINANCIAL REPORT ........................................................................................................ 73
Foreword
In the year 2009, the Romanian
meteorology celebrated 125 years of
institutional activity, while it has brought a
significant contribution to the protection of
people's life and property, being aware
that, at this moment, its position is due to
successive generations of meteorologists
who have worked passionately for its
progress.
The Annual Report 2009 points out the
most significant scientific aspects and
offers a complete image on the operational
and research activity within the National
Meteorological Administration.
Over this year, as well, our institution was
actively involved in the prevention and
management of meteorological risk
situations, connected to the quality of
environment, in general, and of the air, in
particular. The Romanian forecasters
informed the local authorities and the
population in due time, by issuing yellow
and orange code warnings, when severe
meteorological phenomena occurred:
snow storms during the winter, extremely
low temperatures, such as that of 30,5oC,
recorded on 28 January at Întorsura
Buzăului, electric discharges, hail,
torrential rains, squalls, floods and heat
waves, during the summer, when the
recorded daily temperatures reached
o
39,9 C (Zimnicea, 4 August 2009).
In 2009, the specialists of the National
Meteorological Administration participated
to prestigious international scientific
events, published valuable scientific
papers and received academic titles and
awards.
The international relations extended,
particularly with strategic users, and the
existing agreements and good practices
were maintained.
As we know, the National Meteorological
Administration enjoyed a valuable prestige
among the European Meteorological
Services with tradition, bringing a significant
scientific contribution to the progress of
meteorology as science. In 2009, our
institution made considerable efforts to
improve the meteorological, climatological
and agrometeorological forecasts, as well as
the severe weather warnings, contributed to
the protection of environment through
warnings in case of occurrence of accidental
radioactive pollution, to air, railway and
road transports safety and food security,
encouraged the use of clean energy, and
diversified the recreation activities. Last but
not least, the Romanian Meteorological
Service was deeply involved in the
promotion of the regional activity, actively
participating to specific international
programmes and projects and supporting
the research and professional training
activity.
It is worth mentioning that Romania
rd
participated to the 3 World Climate
Conference, and particularly to its High-level
Segment, over the period 31 August4 September 2009, in Geneva, Switzerland.
The aim of this event was the establishing of
a Global Framework for Climate Services,
which will play a crucial role in supporting the
efforts of societies to adapt to climate
change. Through enhancing the quality of
observations, research and information, as
well as through the implementation of
climate user interface mechanisms focused
on building linkages and integrating
information between the providers and users
of climate services, the Global Framework
will ensure that all sectors of society have
user-friendly climate products and services
that allow them to carry out plans in order to
be able to face climate change.
Director General,
Permanent Representative of Romania
with the World Meteorological Organization
Dr. Ion SANDU
3
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
IMPORTANT
IMPORTANT EVENTS
EVENTS IN
IN 2009
2009
14-16 January 2009: Within the NATO SfP978012 Project „Modelling System for
Emergency Response to Release of Harmful
Substances in the Atmosphere”, at the
National Meteorological Administration's
headquarters, the working meeting of a
delegation from the National Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology of Bulgaria took
place. The aim of the project is to provide real
time information to central and local
authorities, as well as to relevant international
organizations, to substantiate the decisions
regarding the measures to be taken to reduce
damage caused by accidental atmospheric
pollution.
25-27 February 2009: At the Director General's
invitation, the National Meteorological
Administration hosted the working meeting
with a delegation from the European
Organization for the Exploitation of
Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), led
by Dr. Lars P. Prahm, Director General of the
above-mentioned organization. The meeting
was joined by high officials such as
secretaries of state, and directors from the
following ministries: Ministry of Environment,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of
Administration and Interior, Ministry of
Agriculture, Forests and Rural Development,
M i n i s t r y o f E c o n o m y, M i n i s t r y o f
Transportation and Infrastructure, Ministry of
Regional Development and Housing and
personalities from other institutions in
Bucharest: Bucharest City Hall, General
Inspectorate for Emergency Situations,
National Institute of Hydrology and Water
Management, National Authority for Scientific
Research, Romanian Space Agency, Institute
for Space Sciences, Romanian Civil
Aeronautical Authority, ROMATSA, Special
Telecommunication Service, Institute for
Advanced Technology, etc.
The main theme approached was the
accession of Romania, with full rights, to the
EUMETSAT Convention. At the same time,
the representatives of the participating
institutions received relevant information on
the benefits of Romania's accession to
EUMETSAT.
23 March 2009: The National Meteorological
Administration celebrated World
Meteorological Day, through organizing a
ceremony in the “Ştefan Hepites” hall at its
headquarters in Bucharest.
The annual anniversary of World
Meteorological Day has become a tradition.
The theme proposed by the World
Meteorological Organization for 2009 was
“Weather, climate and the air we breath”,
within the context in which communities from
all over the world make great efforts to
accomplish the United Nations Millennium
Development Goals, especially those
connected to health, food, water supply
security and improvement of life conditions, as
well as increased efficiency in disasters
prevention and mitigation. It is good to know
that 90% of the natural disasters are directly
related to weather, climate and hydrological
hazards. The scientists have become aware
of the connections between weather, climate,
composition of the air we breath and their
5
IMPORTANT EVENTS IN 2009
effects upon human health. In this sense, the
National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services will continue to carry out the main
guidelines for the protection of human health
and environment.This event gathered
important decision makers at local and central
level. Among the participants to the ceremony
it is worth mentioning Mr. Nicolae Nemirschi
Minister of Environment, representatives of
different institutions such as: the Romanian
A i r Tr a ff i c S e r v i c e s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
(ROMATSA), the Air Forces General Staff, the
General Inspectorate for Emergency
Situations, the Faculties of Physics and
Geography of the University of Bucharest,
etc.
1-3 April 2009: The National Meteorological
Administration hosted the 7th Management
Committee and Working Groups Meeting of
the European Project for Cooperation in
Science and Technology (COST), Action 734,
with the theme “Impacts of Climate Change
and Variability on European Agriculture
CLIVAGRI”, within the context in which
specialists in agrometeorology and remote
sensing from our institution actively
participate to this project.
period. Representatives of the project
partners from Austria, Greece, Croatia,
Serbia, specialist from the National Institute of
Hydrology and Water Management and from
the Institute of Geography attended the
meeting.
17 June 2010: The Academy of Agricultural and
Forestry Sciences “Gheorghe IonescuSiseşti” of Bucharest organized a National
Debate on “Global climate change and
mitigation of impacts in agriculture”, in
collaboration with the National Meteorological
Administration. On this occasion, Dr. Ion
Sandu, Director General of the National
Meteorological Administration presented the
scientific paper entitled “Recent changes in
the climatic regime in Romania and their
impact on agriculture” - authors: Dr. Ion
Sandu, Dr. Elena Mateescu, Dr. Aristiţa
Busuioc.
30 August-10 September 2010: : Dr. Nina
9-10 April 2009: The National Meteorological
Administration organized at its headquarters
a meeting within the NATO SfP-978012
Project „Modelling System for Emergency
Response to Release of Harmful Substances
in the Atmosphere”. Representatives of the
Project partners such as Albania, Bulgaria
and Greece participated to this event.
15-16 June 2009: At the invitation of the
National Meteorological Administration, as
partner to the Climate Change and impacts on
Water Supply Project (CC-WaterS), the
Thematic Group 3 (Climate Change) meeting
took place. The projects unfolds over a 3-year
6
Nikolova from the Faculty of Geography,
University “St. Kliment Ohridski” of
Sofia, paid a working visit to the
headquarters in Bucharest, the Cluj Napoca
Regional Forecasting Service and the Faculty
of Geography of the University Babeş-Bolyai,
Cluj Napoca, within the project “Observed
changes in precipitation regime in the Danube
river lower basin in the context of climate
change”.
The aim of this visit was the exchange of
experience with the Romanian partner,
discussions on the results obtained and
preparation of the final project report.
Over the period 31 August – 4 September
2009, the 3rd World Climate Conference
(WCC-3) took place in Geneva, Switzerland.
The Conference had two major components:
the Expert Segment and the High-Level
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Segment. Romania was represented to the
High-Level Segment session organized on
3-4 September 2009, by Mr. Nicolae
NEMIRSCHI, Minister of Environment and
Dr. Ion SANDU, Director General of the
National Meteorological Administration.
The theme of the Conference was “Climate
prediction and information for decisionmaking” focusing on the scientific progress in
the domain of seasonal and inter-annual
weather forecasts, by taking into account the
multi-decade prediction and use of the
predictions and information allowing
communities to adapt to climate change
with impact on different sectors such
as: agriculture, food security, forest
management, energy, water, health, urban
and rural settlements, infrastructure, tourism,
transportation and commerce, thus
contributing to a sustainable socio-economic
development.
Romania together with the rest of the
countries which signed the Conference
Declaration, partner institutions and
interested organizations, recognized the
necessity of setting up a High-Level Task
Force who will receive information from an
extended experts network, in order to develop
an action plan, assess dedicated resources,
establish a deadline for the proposed actions
and the measuring indicators of the Global
Framework for Climatological Services'
successful implementation.
28 September-1 October 2009: Mr. Jeffrey
Wilson Director of the Education and Training
Division within the Development and
Regional Activities Department of the World
Meteorological Organization, visited the
headquarters in Bucharest, as well as the
National School of Meteorology in Afumaţi.
On this occasion, Mr. Wilson became familiar
with the latest advances of the National
Meteorological Administration, such
as the modernizing of infrastructure,
telecommunications and meteorological data
processing equipment, and with the recent
progress made in the domain of the
professional training developed within the
National School of Meteorology, particularly
through the implementation of the e-learning
teaching platform.
On his turn, Mr. Jeffrey Wilson presented
to the Romanian specialists the
World Meteorological Organization's latest
achievements in education and the new
training strategies initiated by the Education
and Training Division.
14-15 October 2009: On the occasion of the
International Day of Disaster Reduction,
organized by the General Inspectorate of
Emergency Situations, celebrated in
Călimăneşti, Vâlcea district, the paper entitled
“Extreme meteorological phenomena in
Romania” - authors: Dr. Ion Sandu, Dr. Elena
Mateescu, Dr. Aristiţa Busuioc was presented.
29 October 2009: The 5th Forum “State and
Importance of Forest Patrimony at the
rd
nd
Beginning of the 3 Millennium” and the 2
Session of debates dedicated to the “National
Danube water management strategy”, Region
III South Wallachia, Olteniţa, took place and
the paper “Tendencies of evolution in the
climatic regime in Development Region III
(South Wallachia)” was presented by Dr. Ion
Sandu, Director General of the National
4-5 November 2009: The Annual Scientific
Papers Delivery Session was organized at the
headquarters in Bucharest. Distinguished
guests from the Ministry of Environment and
representatives of different other institutions
participated to the opening ceremony. 60
researchers and specialist presented
scientific papers and posters, and at the end,
the best one was awarded the “Nicolae
Beşleagă” prize.
19 November 2009: A delegation from the
European Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasts (ECMWF) paid a work visit to the
National Meteorological Administration with
the purpose of providing information on the
most recent advances recorded by the Centre
and their impacts on the quality of weather
forecasts, as well as ECMWF's developing
7
IMPORTANT EVENTS IN 2009
programmes and future plans. The two
delegates were Dr. Anna Ghelli, from the
Meteorological Operations Section in the
Operations Department and Dr. Peter
Bauer, Head of the Satellite Section
8
in the Research Department. On their turn,
specialists from the National Meteorological
Administration presented the latest
achievements in the operational and research
domain.
METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION
OF THE YEAR 2009
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF THE YEAR 2009
In 2009, the mean thermal regime at country
level was above the climatological normal.
Positive deviations ranged from 0.7ºC in May
to 1.9ºC in November, March being the only
month when the mean temperature at country
level was climatologically normal (Fig. 1).
22.0
OC
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
-2.0
-4.0
2009
61-90
Fig.1. Mean monthly temperature in Romania in 2009,
against the climatological normal (1961-1990)
The precipitation regime of 2009 was
within the norm, with a mean country-level
precipitation amount of 674.0 mm against the
climatological normal of 637.9 mm, which
meant a positive deviation of 5.7%.
The excessive precipitation pattern of
January, February, March, June, October,
November and December compensated the
precipitation deficit from April, May, July,
August and September. In 2009, the mean allcountry amounts ranged from 15.8 in April,
when the climatological norm is 51.5 mm, to
104.1 mm in August, whose normal amount in
89.2 mm (fig. 2).
mm
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
I
II
III
IV
V
2009
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
61-90
Fig. 2. Mean monthly precipitation amount in
Romania in 2009 against the climatological norm
(1961-1990)
In January mean temperatures were
higher that the usual ones, except for the west
and centre of the country, where they were
close to normal. Precipitation amounts were
generally over the climatological norm in the
east, south-east and south, below the norm in
the west and centre of the country and normal
in the remainder of the territory. It snowed in
the first ten-day period and on the closing days
of the month, which lead to the accretion of a
thick snow layer in the mountain areas.
Besides, 3 to 20 cm of snow also accumulated
in most of the country's territory. During the
first ten-day period of the month, fog with rime
was reported in most of the country and in the
second ten-day period glazed frost occurred.
Mean temperatures in February were
higher than usual in the east, south-east and
south of the country and close to normal in the
rest of the territory. The precipitation regime
displayed excess in the northern half of
Moldavia, in most of Transylvania and of
Banat, in southern Oltenia and southern
Dobrudja, it was scanty in south-eastern
Transylvania and south-western Moldavia
and normal elsewhere. It snowed in the
second half of the month, the snow layer
ranging from 17 cm in Dobrudja to 77 cm in
Banat and reaching 239 cm in the mountain
area (Balea Lake). The wind gusted in the
south and east of the country, temporarily
blowing the snow.
In March the mean monthly temperatures
framed within the norm in most part of the
country, with above-normal values locally in
the south and the south-east. Precipitation
amounts exceeded the normal values in the
western and central areas and locally in the
southern ones and were generally normal in
the remainder of the territory. On the first days
of the month it snowed in Maramures and in
the mountain area, where the wind blew the
snow. Precipitation recorded throughout the
month was also thunderous and locally with
hail, in Mures, Valcea, Olt and Timis counties.
In the third ten-day period, hoarfrost locally
occurred in most part of the country.
The mean monthly temperatures in April
were above the normal ones, except for areas
in the south of the country, where they stayed
11
METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF 2009 IN ROMANIA
within the norm. The precipitation regime
displayed deficit across the country, southern
Dobrudja excepted, where the amounts were
near the area's normal. Precipitation fell with
thunder and sparse hail and in the high
mountain area sleet and snow were reported.
Hoarfrost occurred during the month in the
eastern half of the country.
May was warmer than usual, except for
the northern and eastern regions, where
temperatures were close to the climatological
norm. The precipitation pattern displayed
deficit in the west of the country and in most
part of the east, it was in excess of the
average over narrow areas in the Eastern
Carpathians and close to normal in the
remainder of the territory. Rain fell torrentially,
with frequent hail and the wind became galelike. On the last two days of the month, in the
mountains, at over 1400 m.a.s.l., there were
also sleet and snow.
June was also warmer than usual
everywhere in the country. Precipitation
amounts were near normal in most part of the
territory, with a surplus over wider areas in the
north and south-west of the country and a
deficit in Dobrudja and eastern Baragan.
Torrential rain fell on a number of days during
the month, with hail, thunder and squalls.
July was warmer than the climatological
normal throughout the country. Precipitation
amounts mainly displayed excess in the south
and south-east of the country and were
scanty in the remainder of the territory, locally
close to normal. Precipitation, with thunder
and hail, fell torrentially on many of the
month's days in most of the country's areas,
causing local flooding and landslides. In the
latter part of the month, sultry days and
tropical nights were recorded and the
temperature-humidity index (THI) reached
and exceeded the critical 80-unit threshold in
the west, south and east of the country and
sparsely in the centre.
August was also warmer than usual in
most of the country's regions. The
precipitation regime was mainly scanty in
Moldavia, Dobrudja, eastern Wallachia,
Oltenia, Banat and on certain surfaces in
Crisana; it displayed excess in the hill and
mountain areas from Wallachia and Oltenia,
as well as in northern and eastern
Transylvania and was normal over the rest of
the territory. Rainfalls, with thunder and hail,
were torrential on many days of the month in
12
most regions. During the month sultry days
and tropical nights were reported and THI
exceeded the critical 80-unit threshold in the
st
west, south and east of the country. On the 31
the maximum annual temperature (39,9ºC at
Zimnicea) was recorded.
In September , the mean monthly
temperatures were above normal in most of
the country's areas. Precipitation amounts
were scanty in the west, centre and north,
excessive in the south and south-east and
close to normal elsewhere. Rain showers
were accompanied by wind gusts, thunder
and hail. In the mountain area precipitation
also fell as snow over brief intervals. During
the first e-day period of the month, sultry days
and tropical nights were recorded in the plain
areas, and THI exceeded the critical 80-unit
threshold.
The mean thermal regime in October was
above normal in most part of the country,
except for its north and south-west, where it
stayed within the normal limits. The
precipitation pattern displayed excess
everywhere in the country. As it rained across
the country, 24-hour amounts accumulated on
th
the 13 exceeded the maxima of the
observation period at 19 weather stations
from the west and north of the country.
November was warmer than usual
throughout the country. The precipitation
pattern displayed excess in the west and
south-west and deficit in the east and southeast and was normal in the remainder of the
th
th
territory. From the 6 to the 11 it rained widely
in the western half of the country, in excess of
25 mm in the south-west and sparsely over
50 mm in Oltenia sub-Carpathians (80.6 mm
at Padeş on the 9th). In the mountain area it
snowed and snow layer accumulated.
In December it was warmer than usual,
the east and south of the country excepted,
where the month's mean temperatures were
within the normal limits. The precipitation
regime displayed country-wide excess. In the
9–16 interval it snowed and snow layer
occurred in most part of the country. Blizzard
was reported in the mountains, as well as in
the south and east of the country. From the
22nd to the 26th it rained almost everywhere
(the mountain area and the north excepted,
where it snowed). In the 27–31 interval,
precipitation fell mostly as rain and on the last
two days of the year amounts were significant
in the western half of the country.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERIZATION
OF THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2008-2009
The thermal potential of the 2008 autumn was
generally favourable to the unfolding of the
growth and development processes in the
autumn cereal crops sown in the optimum
epoch (15 September -20 October).
In September and October (the basic period
for the autumn sowing campaign)
precipitation fell in large amounts
(150-200 mm) and even in excess
(201-216 mm) in the north-west of Oltenia
and of Wallachia, in central and eastern
Maramures and sparsely in southern
Transylvania and northern Moldavia.
Optimum amounts (75-150 mm) against
plants' demands were recorded in most part
of Wallachia, Oltenia, Banat, Crisana,
Maramureş, Transylvania and Moldavia, as
well as widely in the northern half of Dobrudja.
In the remainder of the agricultural territory
precipitation displayed deficit (30-75 mm).
Under the above-described circumstances, at the end of October 2008, the
humidity reserve accessible to the winter
wheat plants in the 0-20 cm soil layer was
optimum, close to optimum and satisfactory in
most part of the cultivated areas, except for
surfaces in the south-east of the country and
locally in the south, east and west, where the
pedological drought maintained at various
intensities, i.e. moderate, strong and locally
extreme.
Autumn cereals sown in the optimum
epoch benefited from sufficient thermal
resources over narrow areas, but because of
the more frequent and abundant rainfalls in
September and October, seasonal activities
(harvesting, freeing the fields from the vegetal
remains, preparing the germinative bed,
sowing the autumn crops) were hampered
and temporarily discontinued in almost every
agricultural zone, so that the high thermal
resources could not be turned to good
account.
During November the decrease of the
thermal regime of the air to negative values
against the optimum biological limits of plants
(with hoarfrost and ground frost occurrence)
induced gradual slowing to the vegetation
rhythm at the autumn crops in most
agricultural areas and even temporary
stagnation on certain surfaces in the centre
and north of the country.
In order to assess the wintering conditions
in the autumn crops, the thermal indices
specific to the 1 November 2008-28 February
2009 period were analysed (Fig. 1), i.e. the
sums of the mean negative diurnal air
temperatures (Σ meanT<0°C/ cold units) and
the sum of the negative minimum air
temperatures (Σ min.T<-15°C/ frost units)
which characterize the cold season through
the severity of the winter.
Thus, from analysing the „cold units”
(Σ meanT<0°C), a mild winter (less than 200
cold units) was highlighted for Oltenia,
Wallachia, Dobrudja most part of Moldavia
and of Banat, south-eastern Crişana and
central Maramureş. It was moderately cold
(201-300 cold units / normal winter) in most
part of Transylvania, of Crişana and of
Maramureş, in northern and central Moldavia,
as well as locally in northern and southwestern Banat. In the depression areas from
southern and eastern Transylvania the winter
was cold (301-400 cold units) and very cold
(>400 cold units)(Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Winter severity during the interval 1 November
2008-28 February 2009
From analysing the negative minimum air
temperatures situated under the critical
resilience limits of the agricultural plants (min.
T < -15ºC) a mild 2008-2009 winter became
apparent (less than 10 frost units) in most part
of the country's agricultural territory. Locally in
southern and eastern Transylvania, western
Maramureş, western Crişana and western
Moldavia, as well as in southern Wallachia
the frost was moderately intense (11-30 frost
13
units), which characterize a normal winter.
Severe (31-50 frost units) and very severe
winter (more than 50 frost units) was reported
in the depressions from southern and eastern
Transylvania.
It is worth mentioning that the lowest
negative minimum air temperatures
(min. T < -15... -20ºC) were recorded in the 25
December 2008-17 January 2009 interval.
On 28 February 2009 the highest values
of the cold and frost intensity had
accumulated in the depressions from
southern and eastern Transylvania. At
Miercurea Ciuc, for instance, there were
approximately 557 cold units (132 frost units)
whereas at Fagaraş there were about 340
cold units (60 frost units).
The thermal potential of the passage
period from winter to spring is expressed
through the spring-coming index (Σ mean t >0°C)
computed for the 1 February-10 April 2009
interval. It totaled 401-439 heat units in most
part of Banat, in southern and central Oltenia,
sparsely in southern and south-eastern
Wallachia and in south-eastern Dobrudja,
which characterized spring-coming in 2009
as early and very early.
In the remainder of the agricultural
territory 201-400 heat units accumulated,
shaping moderate and normal springcoming, with the exception of the depressions
in eastern Transylvania, where less than 200
heat units accumulated (late spring-coming).
In the spring of 2009 the biological growth and
development processes in the field and treeviticultural crops generally evolved normally
in the majority of the agricultural zones, with
more enhanced rhythms in the former part of
the interval, especially in the plain areas from
the west and south of the country and slightly
slowed in the depressions.
The vegetation state of the crops was
good and average in the crops sown in the
optimum period and on the plots with a fair
supply of the soil with water, but it was
average and poor on surfaces with in-soil
water deficit and in the late-sown crops. At
the end of May 2009 the humidity reserve
accessible to the winter wheat plants in the 0100 cm soil profile displayed low and very low
values and there was pedological drought at
different intensities, i.e. moderate, severe
and extreme in most part of the agricultural
areas.
On certain surfaces from the north,
centre and south-west of the country the soil
14
was supplied with water in satisfactory limits.
In the areas the most affected by pedological
drought at various intensities from the southeast, south and east of the country the soil
was dry at the surface and displayed a friable
crust and cracks.
Throughout the summer of 2009, due to
the maintenance of high air and ground
surface temperatures, associated with in-soil
water deficits, maturation processes were
forced in the weeding crops (maize,
sunflower) especially in the south, south-east
and east of the country. The vegetation state
was generally good and average in the west,
centre and north of the agricultural territory,
whereas in south-east and east it was
average and poor.
In eastern Moldavia maize was
harvested as fodder. In most part of the
country's agricultural areas, in the 1 June-31
August 2009 interval the scorching heat
phenomenon ( max .T≥32C) was less
intense or even absented (< 50 scorching
heat units) in the south-east, centre, north,
east and west of the country. The scorching
heat was intense (51-90 scorching heat
units) in eastern and southern Wallachia,
southern Oltenia and south-eastern
Moldavia. In the extreme south of Wallachia
and of Oltenia, the scorching heat was very
intense, with 91-105 scorching heat units.
Scorching heat days were accompanied
by tropical nights which hampered or even
stopped dry matter accumulation processes
in crop grains /seeds. The figure below
renders the map of the scorching heat
intensity. The highest value of the thermal
stress intensity in the summer of 2009 was
reached at Giurgiu, with 105 scorching heat
units, whereas at Brasov, Miercurea Ciuc and
Turda maximum air temperatures ≥32C
absented (Fig. 2).
Fig. 2. Scorching heat intensity over the 1 June-31
August 2009 interval
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
During the period with maximum water
consumption of the agricultural plants (June
through August), recorded precipitation was
scanty (less than 200 mm), especially across
the crop areas from the south-east, east,
south and west of the country's agricultural
territory, where in-soil humidity deficits
maintained, inducing moderate, severe and
extreme pedological drought. The figure
below displays the map of the humidity
reserve in the 0-100 cm soil layer (Fig. 3).
PRECIPITATION REGIME
< 350 mm, excessively
droughty
351 - 450 mm, droughty
451 - 600 l/mp, moderately
droughty
601 - 700 mm, optimum
701 - 800 mm, rainy
> 800 mm, excessively rainy
Fig. 4.Precipitation fallen in the 1 September 2008-31
August 2009 interval at weather stations representative for
the country’s agricultural territory
Fig. 3. Humidity reserve in the 0-100 cm soil layer in
the unirrigated maize crop, on 31 August 2009
From the precipitation standpoint, the
1 September 2008-31 August 2009
agricultural year was excessively droughty,
droughty and moderately droughty (<600 mm)
in Dobrudja, Moldavia, southern and eastern
Wallachia, southern Oltenia, western and
central Banat, central Transylvania, western
Crişana and western Maramureş, where insoil water deficits occurred and maintained,
especially in the April-August interval, causing
moderate, strong and extreme pedological
drought. In 2009, April was the droughtiest
month, with a mean precipitation amount over
the surfaces of agricultural interest of 14 mm
against the 47.6 mm monthly multiannual
mean.
Worth mentioning also is that during the
critical period as regards the crops' water
demands, i.e. from May to August, three of the
months (May, July and August) yielded scanty
precipitation and only June displayed values
exceeding the climatological norm. However,
the annual precipitation amount (580 mm)
characterizes a moderately droughty
precipitation regime against the optimum
annual demand of the crops (Fig. 4).
Precipitation amounts recorded in the
1 September 2008-31 August 2009 were:
scanty, 175-600 mm (excessively
droughty, droughty and moderately
droughty precipitation regime) in
Dobrudja, southern, western, eastern,
central and northern Moldavia, central,
southern and eastern Wallachia, central,
eastern and south-western Transylvania,
the north and west of Banat and of
Crişana, southern Oltenia and western
Maramureş;
optimum, 601-700 mm in northern,
southern and western Transylvania,
eastern Crişana, central, northern and
south-western Oltenia, northern
Wallachia, central and south-western
Banat, central and eastern Maramureş,
as well as north-western Moldavia;
in significant amounts (701-800 mm) and
even excessive (801-1113 mm) in
southern and eastern Banat, northern
Wallachia, northern and central
Maramures and southern Transylvania
(see map in the figure above).
In the 2008-2009 agricultural year the
winter wheat yields on the observation
platforms of the stations with an
agrometeorological schedule across Romania
were from 1500 to 2200 kg/ha in Dobrudja,
from 1500 to 3500 kg/ha in Moldavia, from
1600 to 3200 kg/ha in Wallachia, from 3900
to 4000 kg/ha in Oltenia, from 1200 to
1500 kg/ha in Banat, from 5000 to 5500 kg/ha
in Crisana and from 2000-4600 kg/ha in
Transylvania.
The lowest yields (1200-1300 kg/ha) were
generally obtained on unirrigated surfaces
from the south, the south-east, east and
south-west of the territory, where, moderate,
severe and extreme pedological drought was
reported. The threshold of the mean
productive potential in the wheat crop, in an
unirrigated regime, 4500 kg/ha, was reached
15
and even surpassed only on the agricultural
surfaces with a good supply of the soil with
water.
As regards the sunflower, yields were
1200-2500 kg/ha in the majority of the crop
16
areas, 2000-3900 kg/ha in the maize
crops against an average potential of
4800-6000 kg/ha in an unirrigated regime,
function of the hybrids' characteristics and the
applied technology.
BASIC OPERATIONAL
ACTIVITIES
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
OBSERVATION
OBSERVATION SYSTEM
SYSTEM
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
150 Rime
100
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL NETWORK
50
Varfu Omu
Campina
1961
1968
1975
1982
1989
Varfu Omu
1996
0
2003
The meteorological observation and
measurement program was carried out by 160
stations within the national weather station
network. Here is how these stations were
involved in each type of observation:
160 synoptic stations, 55 agrometeorological
stations, 9 actinometric (solar radiation)
stations,1 background pollution station, and 3
nivological mountain stations.
Atmospheric precipitation, snow depth
and weather evolution were monitored by 262
pluviometric posts.
Synoptic data recorded by 23 weather
stations were transmitted into the
international data flow while 14 stations sent
climatological data into the international flux.
In 2009, several software programs and
applications were aimed to integrate 10
Logotronic automatic stations in the surface
observation system. To enhance the
automatic station network, 12 more Vaisala
stations were purchased and their location
was established. Three automatic stations
Sinaia 1500
Ploiesti
Profile with rime accretion
prior to 1961 in order to understand the
methods used in calculating daily means.
MMNCL studied the apparition and
evolution of certain phenomena that influence
upon the normal operation of automatic
station indicators and other equipment units.
Since 2009, the National Meteorological
Administration's Metrologic Office has made
regular calibrations of HMP 45
Temperature/Humidity Indicators (one-year
intervals) and PMT 16 Pressure Traducers
(two-year intervals) installed on Vaisala
automatic stations. It is a semi-automatic
computer-assisted calibration with a software
program designed by this laboratory.
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS
Rime accretion at Vladeasa weather station
were included in an autonomous program of
unmanned measurements.
Methods and Meteorological Network
Coordination Laboratory (MMNCL)
elaborated instructions for each application
and the staff using them as well as those in
charge with installing and maintaining the
applications were properly trained.
To homogenize climatic data, weather
stations' metadata were rebuilt for a period
The agrometeorological observation and
measurement program went on during 2009.
It was carried out by 55 weather stations that
maintained the operational flow of information
about the evolution of weather parameters
impacting agriculture.
Reports included specialized data such
as thermal and hydric indices, information on
soil condition and phyto-sanitary state as well
as phenological features function of
the vegetation season in crops (NovemberMarch / cold season and April-October / warm
season). They covered the whole territory of
Romania or only regions of interest Moldavia,
Dobrudja, Wallachia, Banat-Crişana, and
Transylvania-Maramureş.
The existence of an automatic flow of
moisture data made it possible to transmit in
due time information on soil condition for
several profiles (0-20 cm, 0-50 cm and 0-100
cm) as well as calendar data specific to winter
wheat and maize crops.
19
BASIC OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES
At the same time, the phenological database
on winter wheat, maize, sunflower, vine and
fruit trees was further validated and organized
over the agricultural year 2008-2009. The
above-mentioned species are included in the
European Phenological Data Platform list
(COST Action 725). Every phenological
observation carried out in agrometeorological
platforms belonging to a specialized network
was standardized according to the BBCHcode (BBCH Monograph/ Growth Stages
of Plants, Germany, 1997, ISBN 3-82633152-4), following the identification and
classification principles of specific
phenological phases for each agricultural
species.
NIVO-METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS
The nivo-meteorological observations
were performed at Vf. Omu, Bâlea Lac, Sinaia
1500 and Postăvaru Stations. Daily bulletins
were issued between 01.01.2009 and
21.04.2009 for the 2008-2009 season while
the first bulletin for 2009-2010 appeared on
17.12.2009. Semiweekly reports were issued
from 23.04.2009 to 28.05.2009 for the
2009 nivo-meteorological activity synthesis
Month
I
II
III
IV
V
X
XI
XII
Total
Nivo-meteorological
observations performed
twice a day at specialized
weather stations
248
224
248
240
248
248
240
248
1944
Stratigraphic
soundings and
profiles
Snow layer
stability tests
20
16
16
16
7
-1
9
85
20
16
16
4
4
---60
2008-2009 season and on 14.12.2009, a
report was issued for 2009-2010. Between
June and November 2009, work was
performed to obtain the winter season
2008-2009 nivological balance. The
nivo-meteorological bulletins appeared
on the European Avalanche Services sitewww.slf.ch, the sites of several alpine clubs
and organizations and they were sent to every
mountain rescue team in monitored areas as
well as to the Ministry of Environment's
Dispatching Center, having also been
included in the daily reports on environmental
conditions that could be seen on the National
Meteorological Administration's web page.
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
During 2009, the Atmospheric Physics and Air
Pollution Observatory's research activity was
mainly focused on a number of problems
within the fields of radiometry, aerology,
atmospheric ozone and air pollution. This
activity resulted in the following
achievements.
It was ended the study on the accuracy of
solar radiation measurements at Romanian
20
Nivological
bulletins issued by
RWFS Sibiu
meteorologists
31
29
31
30
9
--15
145
radiometric stations, which were obtained
from indirect measurements of direct solar
radiation. This study led to a method that
corrected the accuracy of data obtained by
measuring solar radiation components at
radiometric stations. The method shows what
sources of error appear in current global and
diffuse radiation measurements, namely
cosine error and shadow error, making also a
quantitative assessment of them. As the main
solar radiation components will be measured
by automatic systems in the future and the
quality of such data must be assessed, this
method is useful for improving the installation
procedure of automated radiometric units,
focusing on sensor orientation and
eliminating shadows on radiation sensors.
Daily sums of global radiation
automatically measured as well as monthly
sums and daily means of sunshine duration
were transmitted to the Sankt Petersburg
World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) during
2009. These data had to pass the WRDC
quality control and validation procedures,
which confirmed the good quality of solar
radiation measurements across Romania and
allowed them to be entered in the World Solar
Radiation Atlas.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Products of this kind are very useful in
operational forecasting on local scale
(Bucharest) and they will be a part of the
operative program sometime in 2010.Daily
ozone concentrations have been measured
for 29 years in Romania, which gives us such a
data fund that makes possible an accurate
enough assessment of total ozone. Its 2009
deviations as against the multiannual values
are negative, excepting February, March and
December. They are shown in the graph
below.
Deviation against the multiannual mean
For each station in the radiometric
network there were calculated correction
factors for global solar radiation obtained by
standard methods
using the Robitzsch
bimetallic actinograph, as against the
automatically recorded values given by the
CM-type Kipp & Zonen thermopile. These
factors took two years of study (2007 and
2008) and were based on parallel
measurements using both systems in every
measurement point. Given the results
obtained, series of global solar radiation data
recorded at Romania's actinometric stations
can be homogenized.
Admittedly, the AMDAR (Aircraft
Meteorological Data Relay) data recorded by
commercial airplanes are used in a wide
range of operational applications in
meteorology, being regarded as base
supplementary information of help in knowing
and describing the initial state of the
atmosphere. The European AMDAR data are
sent to the National Meteorological
Administration on two ways - the Global
Telecommunication System (GTS) and the
Internet (E-AMDAR portal). Data received
through GTS are messages coded in two
formats: ASCII (code FM42-XI Ext.) and
binary (code FM94 BUFR). The Internetaccessed AMDAR data are presented in a
processed shape as tables and graphs
representing vertical wind and temperature
profiles. In 2009, a set of applications was
elaborated and tested in order to take over,
decode, validate and process AMDAR vertical
profiles made by commercial airplanes in
Bucharest. Finally, the 2009 work resulted in
aerological diagrams that combine and
compare vertical temperature structures
obtained by these two measurement types
(standard and AMDAR). The following graph
shows such an application; it displays thermal
structure and air instability in Bucharest on
21.05.2009.
As regards the air pollution field, we took part
in the first set of experiments that simulated a
stable atmospheric flow within hydraulic tank
at Meteo-France Toulouse CNRM-GAME, in
a project called “Investigation of the vertical
eddy flux of momentum under stable
conditions in the surface boundary layer over
land using CNRS-Toulouse stratified water
flume”. It was used a 22 m x 3 m x 1 m staticfunctioning (channel obturated at both
extremities) hydraulic tank, wherein the fluid
is motionless at first and then set in motion by
moving a horizontal rugose plate. These
experiments were aimed to obtain a turbulent
boundary layer nearby the plate, developed
enough and statistically close to a balance
state. For this, water was used as a fluid and a
number of 124 tests were carried out. The
following parameters were varied:
-type, dimension and amount of
particles injected into the tank,
-the way particles were injected,
-video camera opening,
-time between two successive laser
pulses,
-configuration of the LEGO pieces
inserted in the horizontal plate to
model terrain rugosity, in order to
obtain a good image of the flow and
calculate the speed field of injected
particles.
21
When experiments were over, it was
concluded that a good visualization of the
motion is allowed by 60 μm-diameter particles
injected in a recipient containing these
particles in a proportion of 50 - 100ml / 20 l.
RADAR OBSERVATIONS
In 2009, the national weather radar
network one of the most complex networks in
Europe, kept on providing important
information about cloud and precipitation
systems (extent, vertical development,
direction of motion and speed, evolution) as
well as on related severe phenomena: hail,
heavy rain, gusts, tornadoes. As most of the
radars are placed nearby the Romanian
border, useful information is provided by this
network long before cloud systems reach our
country. Such information is important to the
neighboring countries as well.
Throughout 2009, this network provided
both radar products automatically generated
according to the preset lists of each radar
equipment as well as products generated only
on request. Yearly mean availability of
automatically-sent radar products on the
forecasting room display (Principal User
Processor-PUP CNPM) was 92.99% (fig 1).
Minimum availability was 84.36% and the
maximum one reached 98.46 % . A total of
555070 observations were made and 40610
missed for various reasons (failures,
preventive maintenance, communication
lines out of order, power supply breakages,
problems with radar data-disseminating
computers).
In the last five years, multiannual radar
product mean availability was around 93%
and 2009 was a year of good mean
availability.
Most radar applications in the SIMIN
system, which provides more display
possibilities for each radar product, functioned
well during 2009. Figure 2 presents one of the
Craiova EEC Radar products (available in
Edge format) displayed in Nexrad format on
PUP application.
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS
Obtaining RGB products on operative
basis from MSG-2 and RSS images (12
products each), outlines weather conditions
such as fog, storm clouds etc. These products
were stored for 30 days at most and a week,
respectively, and they were sent in real time to
the NWFC and Intranet.
Obtaining on operative basis
EUMETSAT/SAFNWC products uses MSG-2
images in all 12 spectral channels and
auxiliary data from ECMWF.
Two Land-SAF products by using MSG-2
images (Meteosat 9) were also obtained in
operative regime
– fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically
Active Radiation (fAPAR)
Receiving operational data from the
geostationary satellite MSG-2 and the RSS
(Rapid Scanning Service). Using the link
between a DVB equipment and MSG, it was
continued the transfer of MSG-2 and RSS
data in order to be processed on the server.
On every one of the 12 channels data were
received and processed. Receiving frequency
was constant, of 15-minute intervals and
5-minute ones, respectively, for the RSS,
according to MSG specifications. Satellite
images from all the 12 spectral channels were
processed, analyzed and sent to the National
Weather Forecasting Center (NWFC).
22
Fig. 1. Mean availability of national radar
network in 2009
Fig. 2. Craiova Radar Base Reflectivity - 19 October
2009, 01:00 (product displayed by PUP after
converting its format into a Nexrad format, when the
VIP W Craiova server had been restored to operation)
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
– Leaf Area Index (LAI)
Vegetation indices are related to a special
case of land cover classification. LAI defines
an important structure feature of tree heads,
which is given by the ratio between upper part
surface and land surface. fAPAR is the
fraction of photosynthetically active radiation
(400-700 nm) absorbed by the green parts of
vegetation cover. LAI and fAPAR are
biophysical variables that describe the
structure of tree heads and are closely
connected to the amount of energy consumed
with functional processes and mass
exchange. fAPAR and LAI are satellite
products received daily via EUMETCast.
They were developed by EUMETSAT's
LandSAF (LandSatellite Application Facility)
center. Their operational processing
undergoes three main steps: reading Land
SAF data fAPAR and LAI from hdf5 format;
navigating the above mentioned satellite data;
extracting the vegetation parameter fAPAR
and LAI and creating certain georeferential
satellite products classified in TIFF format for
the European area; operational
implementation on the LINUX operating
system carried out in the Satellites Laboratory
and their storage in archive for one month at
most.
fAPAR obtained from MSG2 data on 16.10.2009, for
the Romanian territory
LAI obtained from MSG2 data on 23.06.2009
The satellite product „Clear sky UV index at
noon” using GOME data and other auxiliary
data, as a result of collaboration with the O3MSAF (Ozone Monitoring Satellite Application
Facility) group from Denmark's
Meteorological Institute was obtained. The UV
index includes the following input parameters:
ozone (from GOME data); solar zenith angle
and the Earth-Sun distance; ozone profiles;
albedo data; data on aerosols and
topography.
Clear sky UV index at noon maps use a
code of colors numbered from 0 to 15. The
figure below shows images of this index on 25
April 2009.
Clear sky UV index at noon, 25.04.2009
WEATHER FORECAST
Meteorologists' efforts to provide reliable
forecasts are supported by the modern
technology available within the National
Meteorological Administration: Doppler radar
network, equipment and software to transfer
fast and analyze in real time raw data from insitu weather stations and posts as well as from
meteorological satellites.
The meteorological data coming from the
stations are automatically and continuously
processed by integrated software application
systems, under the operators' surveillance.
Warnings of severe weather phenomena
are managed by a system that monitors them
and adds the observations received on
standard channels (phone, facsimile).
Software applications are used to
elaborate various types of diagnoses for a
certain number of stations, intervals and
meteorological parameters.
Dissemination of different forecasting
products (texts, maps, processing data) was
made by the help of an integrated software
system, able to transmit in real time, on the
Internet, warning messages and any other
product elaborated by the National Weather
Forecasting Centre (NWFC).
23
Various meteorological products were
sent to more than 90 customers connected to
mass media both at national and local levels
(television and radio stations, daily
newspapers). This dissemination procedure
was also implemented for every Regional
forecasting Centre.
This system ensures a continuous flow of
real time information between source
(National Meteorological Administration) and
addressees (the public), and its advantages
are evident: automatic procedures to make
individual products and display them at
customer sites, shorter waiting time,
lower financial resources assigned for
dissemination and a greater number of
information presentation formats.
There are many sources of
meteorological information analyzed by
NWFC and many filters are applied to obtain
specific forecasts from warnings of currently
severe weather phenomena, issued for small
areas to 7-day weather forecasts for the
whole country.
Most of the information required in
weather diagnoses and forecasts are
available and taken from the National
Integrated Meteorological System (SIMIN).
This system ensures a fast access to radar
and satellite images, lightning detection
sensors, instability indices and different other
parameters describing the real and probable
condition of the atmosphere at a certain time.
I. Technical aspects
In 2009, within the National Weather
Forecasting Centre console, desktop and
Web-type software applications were
created, developed and made accessible on
the Internet. These applications made with
internal resources, mange the meteorological
information such as messages from stations,
forecasting products, warning messages and
documents of general interest.
1. Web applications:
management of severe weather warnings
from weather stations and pluviometric
posts in Romania;
elaboration of quantitative diagnoses for
every weather station in Romania and for
all sets of stations belonging to the
Regional Weather Forecasting Services
(SINtegrator-web);
24
manage and archive documents of
common interest within the National
Meteorological Administration;
editing of forecasts is made from a control
panel gathering all forecast texts of
national interest and for Bucharest area;
2. Console type forecast applications:
elaborates special diagnoses for small
sets of stations;
archives text-format forecasts for localities;
3. Desktop type software applications:
present real time warning messages;
elaborate quantitative diagnoses for
every weather station in Romania and for
all sets of stations belonging to the
Regional Weather Forecasting Services;
present in brief, current weather state in
all localities of Romania where weather
stations exist. Current information is
stored in a purposely made database,
managed by the Database Design and
Management Laboratory;
set weather condition-related
information in different formats specific to
other video presentation applications
used by the National Meteorological
Administration's customers;
assistant-type application, useful in
warning the user on various actions to be
performed once or periodically;
transform information from synoptic
messages into formats accessible to
certain third parties (cloud ceiling and
cloud type);
monitor contracts with third parties;
4.Integrated software application
systems:
The Web application for the management
of forecasting products destined to customers
connected to mass media is ensured by an
integrated software application system whose
main components are the following:
web application able to create, present
and achieve forecasting products in text
and graphic format. Forecasts in text and
graphic format and non-standard
forecasts for registered customers can
be created. Presentation is made in
tables and on Romania's map. Warning
messages of national and local interest
are also generated and presented within
this application;
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
console-type application able to
download, analyze and present weather
related information at every weather
station in Romania. This application
allows the import of certain information
into formats to be integrated in different
software applications used by different
customers. The presentation is made in
tables on Romania's map;
integrated presentation module for
satellite and radar images of public
interest, weather warnings at European
level, and current Sun state;
module for presentation of weather
condition in the GoogleMaps and
Microsoft Virtual Earth systems;
console-type application for the analysis
of 3-day weather forecasts for various
localities in Romania in order to be
transformed and integrated into forecast
verification applications;
monitor-type application for weather
warnings of national and local interest;
desktop-type application allowing the
achieving of forecast products;
desktop-type application allowing the
taking over of forecast products for
localities from the Web application web in
order to be transformed and transmitted
to various customers;
II.Scientific aspects
As in previous years, in 2009, weather
forecasting activity within the National
Meteorological Administration went on
through international efforts aiming to
anticipate, mitigate and remove the severe
weather effects.
The National Weather Forecasting
Centre's staff took advantage from training
courses organized by the National School of
Meteorology and other international
institutions.
Results of individual activity were also
presented within the Annual Scientific Paper
Delivery Session, organized by the National
Meteorological Administration, in November.
Severe weather events are generally
detected by using modern remote sensing
techniques and by analyzing in different ways
the current weather condition (on classic
supports, such as thermo-baric maps, display
of satellite image animations). In various
cases, the National Weather Forecasting
Centre proved its ability of accomplishing the
task of issuing and disseminating on operative
basis and in due time weather-related
information dedicated to decision-making
factors from the local administration, massmedia and to the public.
Weather forecasts are elaborated by
analyzing various numerical
forecasting
models available to meteorologists such as
global models (particularly the ECMWF one)
and local models (ALADIN, COSMO-LRM).
Their performances in different situations
(pressure configurations) and seasons
(winter, summer, etc.) are monitored on a
regular basis.
Every severe weather alert and warning
message to affect large areas of the country
was issued in accordance with the European
regulations in the domain and the color code
for each category of risk, were used.
Other warnings on weather phenomena
affecting small areas over short intervals were
added in certain cases. The Doppler radar
system together with meteorologists' skills
played an important role in elaborating very
short-range weather forecasts (nowcasting or
up to 12 hours in advance).
In 2009, 35 short and medium-duration
alert and warning messages and updates of
regional and national interest were issued.
The score of weather forecasts over a
24-hour interval was of 87,73% and the
warnings score was of 94%.
Nowcasting activity
The main activity within the Laboratory for
Severe Weather Phenomena Forecasting
Techniques in 2009, was the analysis of
dangerous weather event episodes over the
period 2003-2009, aiming to elaborate
methods to forecast hail, wind gusts, electric
discharges and heavy precipitation.
a) The mesoscale conditions causing
supercellular storms in the south-east of
Romania were analyzed. The first study of
space and time characteristics of supercells,
based on radar data, was made. The study
was performed for the convective season
(May-September) 2003-2009, by using data
provided by the WSR-98D radar placed in
Medgidia. About 550 supercells were
identified. A convective storm was considered
a supercell when reflectivity exceeded
40 dBZ, and the mesocyclone was identified
within the radial wind field. Then, coordinates
of the supercell centroid were recorded every
25
6 minutes. The last radar scanning which
proved the presence of the mesocyclone was
considered the last point on the supercell
trajectory.
The results proved that supercells have
the highest frequency of occurrence in the
interval 12:00-15:00 UTC, with a second
maximum between 17:00 and 18:00 UTC.
Hour mean of supercells recorded in the south-eastern region of
Romania between 2003 and 2009
The mean life time duration of the analyzed supercells situated between 40 and 60 minutes.
a)
Mean lifetime duration of the supercells recorded in
the south-eastern region of Romania between 2003
and 2009.
The mean movement direction of supercells
was from south-east toward north-west
(fig.a), the supercells with the longer lifetime
duration being those moving from south-east
toward north-west (fig. b).
b) Within the same Laboratory, the fist study
on characteristics of lightning activity in
Romania was made, on the basis of data
recorded by RNDDEA. This is the first study
carried out in Eastern Europe, which analyses
space and time characteristics of the lightning
activity. The data cover ed the whole
26
b)
Mean movement direction (a) and mean movement
direction function of lifetime duration (b) for the
supercells recorded in the south-eastern region of
Romania between 2003 and 2009
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Romanian territory and were recorded over
the interval January 2003 - December 2005
and January- December 2007. The space
analyses (density of positive and negative
lightning, percentage of positive lightning and
mean values of maximum currents for
positive and negative lightning) were
performed with a
20 km space resolution.
The density of lightning reaches maximum
values on the southern slopes of the central
Eastern Carpathians. This maximum value
can be associated with the Convergence Area
in the Romanian Plain.
c) Special weatherphenomena recorded in
2009:
– waterspout at Gloria Offshore Oil
Platform
– tornado recorded close to Hârşova, on 30
June 2009
Waterspout recorded at Gloria Offshore Oil Platform,
on 10 August 2009.
Total mean density of lightning (positive and negative)
over the interval 2003 - 2007
Mean monthly lightning variation presents a
maximum value over the period MaySeptember and minimum values in
December-January. High values of positive
lightning density are recorded in the central
and south-western regions of Romania.
Monthly distribution of positive lightning
reaches a main maximum value in May and a
second maximum in August, suggesting that
positive lightning occurs earlier than the
negative ones. Mean annual percentage of
positive lightning is lower in the central part of
the country. Positive lightning percentage
changes values over the year from 1% in June
to 19% in January. Monthly variation of the
maximum current associated to lightning has
minimum values during the winter and
reaches the maximum value in July, both for
negative and positive lightning. Daily cycle of
lightning has a maximum value between
12:30 and 14:30 UTC and decreases
to minimum values between 06:00 and
08:00 UTC.
Tornado recorded close to Hârşova, on 30 June 2009.
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST
Activities developed in this field consisted in
turning to good account and interpreting
products from the deterministic forecasting
models over an expanded and long range
respectively, available at ECMWF, through
achieving new methods to post-process a
number of parameters of interest to the
monthly and seasonal forecasts for Romania.
Monthly forecast
Monthly forecast products were processed
and analysed on a weekly basis, as resulted
27
from the 32-day integration of the ECMWF
model for the meteorological parameters of
the greatest interest: 2-m temperature and
total precipitation amounts, like in the
previous years, adding to those in 2009 the
weekly mean extreme temperatures, which
made it possible to produce maps of Romania
with the forecast values of the maximum and
minimum temperatures averaged on a weekly
basis.
Another application in the domain of the monthly forecast was the realization of programs for the
interpolation of fields forecast at weather stations in Romania, in view to compute deviations against
the multiannual means.
2.0
0.4
1.2
1.6
2.1
-0.1
0.3
0.9
2.6
0.5
0.3
1.5
1.9
2.0
5.0
2.2
0.4
1.3
0.6
-0.5
-1.5
-0.4
-0.2
-0.8
2.1
2.3
2.4
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-3.8
-0.7
-3.3
0.4
Seasonal forecast
There were processed the direct outputs,
as an ensemble of forecasts of the
coupled ocean-atmosphere ECMWF
global model, integrated over 7 months,
for the area of Romania and the AtlanticEuropean one.
A new application in the domain of the
seasonal forecast consists in computing
and representing the forecast fields (the
mean of the ensemble of forecasts for the
mean temperature and the total
precipitation amounts) over 3-consective month intervals, with anticipations of 1 to 4
2.4
4.9
5.6
1.8
2.6
1.3
0.8
2.1
-4.4
4.3
2.3
Deviation of mean weekly temperature against
the weekly multiannual means (1961-1990)
28
2.5
-3.8
-9.0
2.8
3.1
-1.5
0.7
-3.2
2.7
2.1
2.4
6.4
-2.7
6.2
1.8
-3.8
0.6
2.8
3.5
3.7
7.4
2.2
4.5
1.6
1.5
1.2
-2.3
2.8
1.7
2.4
-0.4
1.9
1.6
Deviation of the weekly precipitation amounts against
the weekly multiannual means (1961-1990)
months. Interpolation yields the values at
the weather stations, further compared to
the limits of the tertiles corresponding to
the three-month interval under scrutiny.
Maps for Romania thus result with
anomalies of the forecast fields in
comparison with the climatological norms.
A new method has been achieved to
post-process the direct outputs of
ECMWF's seasonal forecasting model,
using the 41 members of the forecast
ensemble, in view to express the forecast
in terms of probabilities. For each member
within the forecast ensemble an
interpolation program is applied at
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
weather stations in Romania, then the
forecast temperature and precipitation
values are distributed in three
equiprobable classes (tertiles).
Then, over the whole 41-member
distribution, probabilities are computed
t h a t t h e p a r a m e te r s o f i n t e r e s t
(temperature and precipitation) frame
within each of the three equiprobable
classes, as established over the
observation series from the 1961-1990
interval, for each station taken apart.
Finally the forecast can be expressed
function of the highest scoring probability
of the forecast parameter.
A new representation was performed
of the seasonal forecast parameters
consisting in composite maps that contain
both the values forecasted at the weather
stations and their deviations against the
multiannual monthly means, computed
with data observed in the 1961-1990
interval.
Three new fields were processed,
resulted from ECMWF's seasonal
forecasting model: the two components of
the 10-m wind speed and the in-soil water
content (author: Liana Cazacioc). The
10-m wind speed maps were plotted over
the Atlantic-European section and those
representing the in-soil water content in
the 0-7 cm layer - over the Romanian area.
The fields of the in-soil water content in the
7-28 cm, 28-100 cm or 100-289 cm layers,
resulted from ECMWF's seasonal
forecast, are represented similarly.
Mean temperatures and precipitation amounts forecast in terms of probabilities for three equiprobable classes
(tertiles), using ECMWF's ensemble seasonal forecast
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST
The operational agrometeorological program
was focused on analyzing the dynamics of
agriculture-impacting weather parameters
and included the following items:
managing specialized applications
(AGRO-SYNOP and AGRO-TEMPSOL)
on weather and agrometeorological
parameters aimed to monitor vegetation
condition in the main crops, vine and
fruit tree species;
elaborating Agrometeorological
Bulletins (diagnoses/forecasts) that
cover the whole agricultural territory of
Romania or only six regions of interest:
Wallachia, Moldavia, Transylvania and
Maramures, Dobrudja, Banat-Crisana
and Oltenia;
working out specialized agrometeorological reports on request from farmers,
agricultural or insurance companies,
about the impact of agrometeorological
conditions in the agricultural year
2008-2009;
disseminating agrometeorological
information to users such as decisionmakers, farmers, agricultural companies,
specialized journals and mass media
(written press, television, Antena Satelor
Radio).
29
Meteorological and agrometeorological
reports are classified by region, crop type and
genotype, validated and managed with
programs designed for specialized
data structures that make up the
agrometeorological monitoring system. This
system collects in operational flow and
processes on a daily basis weather and
agrometeorological parameters (maximum
and minimum air temperature, soil
temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration,
relative humidity of air and 2-m wind speed)
that form the thermal and hydric
database needed to calculate specific
a g r o m e t e o r o l o g i c a l i n d i c e s ( E T P,
warm/cold/frost/heat units, soil moisture
reserve etc.).
Operational agrometeorological activity
results mainly in the Agrometeorological
Bulletins with their diagnoses and forecasts of
weather and agrometeorological conditions,
as well as in specialized recommendations on
the calendar of agricultural works.
There were elaborated 51
weekly Agrometeorological Bulletins
(diagnoses/forecasts) covering the whole
country and including 180 thematic maps, 124
specialized tables (maximum and minimum
air and soil temperatures and precipitation
amounts by region, over specific intervals)
and 99 digital images representing
the vegetation state of crops within
agrometeorological platforms subject to
observation and measurement programs
carried out by specialized weather stations.
350 weekly regional forecasts were
issued in 2009 as follows: Oltenia-50,
Wallachia-51, Moldavia-47, Transylvania
and Maramures-51, Dobrudja-50 and
Banat-Crisana-50. 51 agrometeorological
forecasts covered the whole of
Romania. These forecasts provided
information on the evolution of weather and
agrometeorological conditions as well as
specialized recommendations regarding the
agrotechnical works specific to certain periods
and they were broadcasted daily on the
Antena Satelor Radio (6:30 LT). Their score
ranged between 87 and 93%.
Agriculture magazines included weekly,
bi-monthly or monthly articles with estimates
of the following parameters: air and soil
thermal regime, precipitation, soil condition in
winter wheat and maize crops, phenology of
field, fruit tree and vine species. Here are the
magazines and the number of articles
published by each:
– “Profitul agricol”-49 articles,
– “Ferma” -27 articles,
– “Gazeta fermierului”- 24 articles,
– “Lumea satului”- 24 articles.
Based on monthly ECMWF air
temperature and precipitation data and
using a soil-water balance model, the
Laboratory of Agrometeorology elaborated 58
maps of soil water reserve estimates for winter
wheat and maize crops. These maps have
anticipations of 1-3 months and provide a
general perspective on the possibility of
pedological droughts or excess soil moisture
during vegetation periods. Having a score of
65-80%, they are used only as a rough guide.
Estimates - 4 August 2009
30
Come true 31 August 2009
MAIZE
ESTIMATES
COME TRUE
Soil moisture reserve
across most regions /
pedological drought
across most regions /
pedological drought
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM
The National Integrated Meteorological
System (SIMIN) is based on a
specialized telecommunication system.
Telecommunication networks are the
backbone of every national meteorological
system. Through such networks
meteorological data and products are
collected from sensors and radars to be sent
to the Regional Weather Forecasting
Services (RWFS) and the National Weather
Forecasting Center (NWFC) that validate,
make up collective products and process
them. Data and information needed to
elaborate local forecasts (land surface and
analogic data, satellite information, radar
products covering the whole country, GRIB
products from meteorological models etc.)
are sent back to the RWFSs.
In 2009, the National Meteorological
Administration used the following
communication types: SMS, data, voice and
Internet. Transmission of messages from
Weather Stations to RWFSs and the NWFC is
made by SMS. Once arrived at RWFSs,
messages are validated, regional message
groups are made up and sent to the NWFC
through data communication channels. These
channels are used to send meteorological
data and products within the national weather
system. There are several data networks.
WAN VSAT is the best solution to connect
in a network four radar sites (Bârnova,
Medgidia, Târnaveni and Oradea), six RWFSs
(Bacău, Constanţa, Sibiu, Cluj, Timişoara and
Craiova) and the NWFC of Bucharest, this
being a full-duplex 11-node network.
The VSAT network is a frame-relay one
with PVCs for each link. It also enables a
multicast transmission of weather data from
NWFC to every RWFS. The volume of
multicast data is large and increases
continuously according to the regional
forecasting requirements.
To increase the WAN availability, it is used
a wireless VPN (Virtual Private Network)
backup provided by a national operator with
the same connections as VSAT. This VPN is
mainly used for other traffic types than the
operational one and, when needed, it
automatically switches to backup.
WAN is also used for voice over IP, the
system having CISCO equipment. Phone calls
can be made between any WAN nodes
without additional costs. The most important
application is the daily teleconference held by
NWFC and RWFS forecasters.
31
The National Meteorological
Administration is linked to the Regional
Meteorological Data Communication Network
(RMDCN) by connections to the Moscow
World Center, the Sofia Regional Center and
E C M W F. U s i n g t h e s e c o n n e c t i o n s ,
meteorological data and products are
received from the WMO network through the
Automatic Message Switching System
(Messir COMM).
Many organizations currently use
meteorological data and information to
ground their decisions. In 2009, the National
Meteorological Administration had permanent
TCP/IP connections with the following
institutions: Ministry of Environment, National
Administration „Romanian Waters”, Ministry
of Administration and Interior, General
Inspectorate for Emergency Situations,
Ministry of Defense and Romanian Air Traffic
Services Administration. Many other
beneficiaries accessed the National
Meteorological Administration system
through safe Internet connections.
The local network has around 600
computers including specialized servers.
Local networks are structured both on central
and regional (RWFS) levels. Optical fiber
cables connect the National Meteorological
Administration buildings. The whole central
and regional LAN/WAN network uses CISCO
equipment with security components.
from 160 automatic and standard
stations, hourly/daily/monthly basis;
daily temperatures (means, highs, lows)
validated
from 42 stations with
complete data strings for their whole
functioning periods;
hourly operational synoptic data
provided by 160 stations, no validation;
daily operational pluviometric data from
223 posts, no validation;
daily precipitation (table TM2) received
from 273 (low flow) gauging posts,
validated;
hourly air temperatures, pressure and
humidity (table TM5) from 44 standard
stations with part time program,
validated;
hourly sunshine duration (table TM6)
from 156 standard and automatic
stations with no solar radiation traducer,
validated;
historical data (missing items and new
data) and added metadata;
relevant meteorological parameters
received every 10 minutes from 90
automatic stations;
Several important activities related to data
management were carried out in 2009:
The following raw data were entered in the
National Meteorological Administration
Database in 2009:
the database was managed and
maintained;
surface observations were stored in two
databases (historic and operative) and
access instruments were developed for
every user of them;
the Logotronic automatic stations were
turned operative, being integrated in the
operative data flow. These stations are
installed in the following locations:
Sânnicolau Mare (code 15199),
Chişineu Criş (15136), Lugoj (15270),
Făgăraş (15235), Huedin (15099),
Filaret (15422), Corugea (15408),
Mangalia (15499), and Dărăbani
(15000);
the National Meteorological Data Fund
Management System was developed by
designing and implementing several
applications that manage, supply,
update and access databases. The
most important of them are shown
below;
general climate data (00, 06, 12, and 18
hrs.) and synthesis data (validated)
a) Applications integrating the Logotronic
stations in SIMIN: “GealogToConsole” is run
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA
FUND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
This system includes the National
Meteorological Administration Climatologic
Database, the National Operative Database
(NOD) as well as programs to store, search,
extract, update, manage, access and secure
data. Operational-flow and slow-flow data
together with manually-introduced historical
data from synoptic and climatologic archives
are added every year. The Climatologic
Database is managed with ORACLE 10gR2,
while MS SQL Server 2008 is used for the
NOD.
32
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
on the automatic station computers,
“GealogToRFC” is installed on the regional
center data-collecting computers, and
„GealogToCOF” is run by a National Weather
Forecasting Center computer. The figure
below shows the integrating architecture that
includes Logotronic stations; new
components are colored in red while black is
used for SIMIN components;
SM
b) The web application „Climatologic
Syntheses” calculates and displays synthesis
data based on daily and monthly information
provided by weather stations from 1961 to
date and stored in the National Climatologic
Database. Such syntheses can be made for
one or several weather stations for a
monthly/daily parameter and a user-specified
reference interval.
33
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
NUMERICAL MODELLING
I. The ALADIN Model
1. Developing the operational system
ALARO is a superior operational version of
the ALADIN model. From the start, it was
designed to integrate the model at higher
resolutions (around 5 km) by increasing the
complexity of physical parameterizations
aimed to a prognostic approach of physical
processes keeping the interest for sound and
efficient numerical solutions intact.
ALARO was implemented on an IBM blade
platform. As against the operational ALADIN
model, it includes two new prognostic
variables for species of water, a 2-band
radiation parameterization scheme using the
NER
(Net Exchange Rate) method for
thermal radiation, parameterization of the
turbulent transport based on pseudoprognostic kinetic energy and a 3MT
approach of moist processes (Modular,
Multi-scale, Microphysics and Transport).
Taking into consideration the fact that this
platform provided shorter integration intervals
and some technical restraints were faced
(only six ALADIN-dedicated nodes), a new
integration domain was generated for
ALARO-ROMANIA
6.5-km horizontal
resolution (240x240 points) and 49 vertical
levels. The new domain slightly larger than
the ALADIN one, is shown below.
A new pre-operational numerical weather
forecasting system was installed. It was based
on the ALARO-0 model, which uses the new
integration domain in order for the whole
operative chain (coupling-file generation,
model integration and output postprocessing) related to a 78-hour forecast to
last around one hour.
a)
b)
c)
ALARO-Romania: Integration domain and its
orography
2-m temperature field (00+29 UTC - a), 850 hPa
pressure and temperature (00+15 UTC - b) and 10-m
wind (00+12 UTC - c), 2.12.2009
37
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
The ALARO model was integrated at the
same time with the operational ALADIN
model once a day (with 00 UTC data) over the
same horizontal domain but it used 60 vertical
levels instead of 41 operational ones, over a
period of around 40 days. Encouraging
results were obtained, particularly for
precipitation forecasts. Model's integration
time for 78-hour forecasts is about 20
minutes, 10 times less than the current time.
To visualize results, it was implemented a new
post-processing procedure for grib outputs
and a new Magics-based graphic package
was developed. They were integrated on a
new web page.
2. Research-Development
Within the framework of ALADIN/RC-LACE
projects, the Romanian team helped to
develop (parameterization of moist
processes) and validate the ALARO model. It
also calibrated and validated a number of
combined forecasts obtained by regionalizing
ARPEGE and ECMWF forecast ensembles
using ALADIN for a larger area that covers all
member countries.
3. Implementing a multi-model forecast
ensemble in the operational flow
A multi-model forecast ensemble for 24-h
cumulated precipitation is generated daily. It is
based on forecasts with several anticipations
provided by weather forecast numerical
models operationally integrated within the
National Meteorological Administration at
several horizontal resolutions:
ALADIN
(∆x=10 km), COSMO (∆x=14 km) and HRM
(∆=28 km).
Ensemble means are calculated taking into
consideration either every available forecast
(8 members: 3 ALADIN, 2 COSMO and
3 HRM) or only those with about the same
horizontal resolution (5 members: 3 ALADIN,
2 COSMO) for a common domain: 42.1 - 49.8˚
N, 20.7 31.325˚ E ; Δx=0.125°, Δy=0.1°.
Generally, ensemble means have better
performances than each model taken
separately, as it can be noticed below in a
case of abundant rain.
24-h Cumulated Precipitation (30.08.2009, 06 UTC -31.08.2009, 06 UTC): observations (upper), ensemble mean:
from five ALADIN and COSMO members lower left; from eight ALADIN, HRM and COSMO members lower right
38
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
II. COSMO non-hydrostatic limited-area
model
Even since 2005, the nonhydrostatic
atmospheric-prediction model COSMO has
been operatively run by the National
Meteorological Administration on a Linux
cluster at 14-km resolution over a domain that
covers the whole Romanian territory. Once
the National Meteorological Administration
purchased an IBM blade cluster, it was
implemented the last nonhydrostatic COSMO
version, which has been run in operative flow
for 7 km (161x145 grid points) and 2.8 km
(301x231 grid points) resolutions twice a day
(00 and 12 UTC).
Using a 7-km resolution, the limited-area
prediction model COSMO is integrated for an
anticipation of 78 hours with 40 vertical levels.
It was also improved the graphic presentation
after post-processing and the procedure to
obtain meteograms was ended.
a)
b)
Operational 7-km COSMO products; a) 24-h Cumulated Precipitation, b) 2-m Air Temperature
A COSMO meteogram
39
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Initial and boundary conditions used in
running the COSMO model at 2.8-km
resolution are obtained with a procedure that
interpolates 7-km resolution model
integration results. The model undergoes a
multi-processor integration for an anticipation
of 30 hours, having 50 vertical levels, over a
domain that includes the entire Romania (see
images below).
a)
b)
2.8-km COSMO products; a) 850 hPa Relative Humidity, b) Sea-level Pressure
Another research direction was focused
on developing a system to assess the quality
of COSMO precipitation forecasts. To this
aim, the Romania-wide radar-estimated
precipitation field as well as the precipitation
field recorded by weather, hydrological and
rain-gauging stations were interpolated in the
model's grid. Differences between modelgenerated forecasts and observation values
were represented with the GRADS graphics
software, which highlighted areas of
underestimated/overestimated precipitation.
Such displays are very useful in qualitative
analyses of COSMO forecasts, as they show
the model's reliability for several synoptic
situations.
This procedure is shown in images below.
b)
a)
c)
Cumulated Precipitation, 19.10.2009
a) radar estimations interpolated in the COSMO
grid;
b) recorded, interpolated in the COSMO grid;
c) COSMO-simulated Cumulated Precipitation
40
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
To carry out an operational evaluation of
2009 COSMO forecasts, the National
Meteorological Administration implemented
the Unified Verification System VERSUS by
which every COSMO member assesses the
quality of numerical forecasts.
Some VERSUS products are shown
below.
All these research and development
directions are included in the COSMO
Consortium's priority projects and Romania is
to participate in their carrying out as a
Consortium member.
III.HRM limited-area hydrostatic model
In 2009, it was implemented the latest version
of HRM limited-area hydrostatic model, which
is at present integrated on operative basis in
the National Meteorological Administration
structure twice a day (00 UTC, 12 UTC) at
14-km resolution (201 x181 grid points) with
an anticipation of 78 hours. HRM outputs are
used as inputs (initial conditions) to the
pollutant dispersion model INPUFF
(Integrated PUFF) integrations.
a)
b)
c)
VERSUS Products: Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute
Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE);
a) Dew Point Temperature; b) 10-m Wind Speed;
c) Sea-level Pressure
HRM's topography, 14-km horizontal resolution
INPUFF is a Gaussian model able to
simulate dispersion of certain substances
emitted by punctual continuous, intermittent or
instantaneous sources in a variable wind field.
It was tested on an IBM cluster at the National
Three possible pollution sources are daily
monitored on operative basis: Cernavodă,
Turnu Măgurele and Kozlodui.
It was also implemented in operative flow
an automatic procedure to integrate the model
in case of accident. Wherever such an event
occurs, after introducing latitudes and
longitudes the model is able to simulate
pollutant dispersion on wind grid.
41
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Two maps are presented above:
pollutant-dispersion forecasts for Cernavodă
an operatively-monitored location.
IV. Statistical weather forecast adjustment
and verification
During the statistical post-processing of
numerical weather forecasts, there were
operatively implemented MOS_EPS models
for 15-day and 32-day, respectively,
anticipations. Results were disseminated as
follows:
– groups of maps with mean values and
related standard deviation;
– graphs of related quantile distributions
by region.
Every graphic procedure was reexamined in 2009 and, in addition, 15-day and
32-day forecasts for each weather station
were visualized.
Every operative product is available at
http://neptun.meteoromania.ro and http://tuxy
155420 - Minimum temperatures. Mean and distribution for 51 RUN. Base: 20100318
Median
Mean
Daily of validity
15420 - Maximum temperatures. Mean and distribution for 51 RUN. Base: 20100318
Median
Mean
Daily of validity
MOS_EPS display of a monthly high/low temperature forecast at a weather station
42
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
A bilateral collaboration between MeteoFrance and the National Meteorological
Administration resulted in the following
accomplishments:
- it was developed a MOS statistical
temperature-forecasting model at
1-hour resolution using barycentric
regression; this model was
implemented at the ECMWF while
dissemination was assumed by the
National Meteorological Administration;
- MOS_ARPEGE was developed for each
of the four numerical model RUNs;
- tests on using a MOS_MIXT system to
forecast extreme temperatures.
Composite models MOS-ARPEGEECMWF and MOS-ALADIN-ECMWF,
respectively, proved to be better than
individual models; consequently, these
procedures will be also implemented in
the operative flow.
Mean Squared Error; Maximum temperature for day J+1; Intercomparisons of MOS models
for a 1-year test interval. Reference: 00 UTC.
As regards the verification of weather
forecasts in 2009, our efforts were focused on
modernizing the objective numerical model
verification system that grew more and more
complex.
The above-mentioned verification
system's architecture was designed to meet
scientific as well as administrative
requirements. Its main modular components
include functions such as:
– numerical forecast and observation
data preparation and control;
– score calculations;
– verification sets/arrays (stratification,
composition etc.);
– graphic representation and
dissemination;
Descriptive diagrams were made for a
number of weather stations and there was
figured the evolution of monthly scores for
each weather parameter subjected to
verification. This system can also provide a
comparative display of scores for every model
in the operative flow.
A daily ALADIN verification procedure has
been operative since summer 2009. Graphs
and maps like the following ones are available
daily on the website. At present, efforts are
made to implement a verification procedure to
compare precipitation amounts with weather
station-recorded data. The display is similar to
that shown below.
43
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
ALADIN-forecasted temperatures (4-day anticipation) and values recorded at the Bucharest- Băneasa Station, 27
March 2009. Reference time: 00 UTC
Spatial distribution of temperature forecast errors at 6-hour resolution, ALADIN Model, 27.03.2009, 00 UTC
44
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Spatial distribution of 12-hour Cumulated Precipitation forecast errors, ALADIN Model, 03.10.2009, 00 UTC
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
The research activity in the field of climate
variability and change mainly consisted in
rounding off research studies in two main
European projects within the Sixth
Framework Programme (FP 6): ENSEMBLES
and CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe
Climate Change Impact and VulnerabiLIty
Assessment). During the reported period the
METAFOR (Common Metadata for Climate
Modelling Digital Repositories) European
project within FP 7 continued to unfold. In
2009, the bilateral Romania-Bulgaria
cooperation (Observed changes in
precipitation regime in the Danube river lower
basin in the context of climate change) was
finalized.
A number of studies covering climatic
themes were achieved within the National
Plan for Research-Development-Innovation
“Geological Diversity of the Romanian Late
Palaeozoic and the connection with climate
changes” (PALOECLIM), “Map of the
Hydroenergetic Micro potential of Romania
complex technical-economic approaches”
(HARMIH), “Elaboration of multidiscipline
national strategies for early warning,
monitoring and control of re-emerging
diseases transmitted by vector mosquitoes
(Diptera: Culicidae), within the European
operational environment.”
In 2009 three articles were published as
follows: two in an international journal indexed
in the ISI database (”Theoretical and Applied
Climatology” ) and one in a Romanian journal
(„Geographic Deliveries”). Researchers from
the Climatological Department participated in
international conferences with a delivery at
EMS/ECAC, Toulouse, France
(27
September-2 October), two deliveries at
MOCA-09, Montreal, Canada (19-27 July) and
one at the Joint IPCC-WCRP-IGBP
Workshop: New Science Directions and
Activities Relevant to the IPCC AR5, Honolulu,
SUA (3 -6 March).
Analyses concerning the regional
projection of the climate change signal in
the A1B scenario conditions.
Within the ENSEMBLES project, the
conditioned stochastic model identified to be
reliable at 5 of the 10 analysed stations,
calibrated over the 1961-1990 interval, was
applied to the anomalies of predictors
simulated by 8 global climatic models supplied
45
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
through the ENSEMBLES project. There was
computed the change in the mean regime of
the 10 precipitation indices over the
2071-2100 interval against 1961-1990, under
the A1B emission scenario, for winter and
summer respectively.
Results show that the climatic signal
depends on index, season, weather station
a)
and the global climatic model used as an input
to the conditioned stochastic model. In the
case of winter, there is better coherence for the
indices referring to extreme events,
both spatially, between the analysed
stations, and between different indices
(Fig.1- exemplification for Drobeta Tr. Severin
station).
b)
Fig. 1. Values of various statistical parameters concerning the distribution of mean daily precipitation amounts for the
winter season, at Drobeta Tr. Severin station, computed as averages over the ensemble of 1000 runs performed with the
conditioned stochastic model, applied to simulations obtained with various global climatic models for the 2070-2099 timehorizon, under the A1B emission scenario; a) mean duration (no. of days) of intervals with precipitation, without
precipitation, number of days with daily amounts > 15 mm (pp >15).b) Maximum daily precipitation amount (mm /day),
maximum duration of the interval with precipitation, without precipitation (no. of days). Corresponding values computed
from the 1961-1990 observation period are also displayed.
Using the statistical model based on the
CCA analysis applied to 8 global climatic
models, there was computed the shift in the
mean seasonal temperature in Romania, at
94 weather stations for the time horizons
2021-2050 and 2070-2100, as an ensemble
average of those projections. There is
warming signal for all seasons, the amplitude
st
being larger for the end of the 21 century.
Thus, under the A1B emission scenario, for
the 2070-2100 time horizon a mean air
temperature increase over Romania is
expected (against the 1961-1990 baseline) of
about 2.60C (± 0.7) in winter, 2.30C (± 0.4) in
spring, , 3.30C(± 0.6) in summer and 2.80C
(± 0.9) in autumn. Figure 2 displays the
exemplification for summer.
As regards the monthly precipitation
amount, statistical downscaling models
developed in previous years for 16 stations
from the south-east of the country (CECILIA
project) have been applied to the 8 global
climatic models. The result may be thus
synthesized: under the A1B emission
scenario, in the 2021-2050 time horizon, the
climatic signal is weaker in the analysed area
Fig. 2. Shift in the mean summer temperature in
Romania over 2071-2099 against 1961-1990, under the
A1B scenario, computed through averaging results
obtained with the statistical downscaling model applied
to the temperature anomalies at 850 mb, computed from
the simulations of 8 global climatic models taken over
through the ENSEMBLES project (stream 1).
46
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
from south-eastern Romania. Small amounts
decreases are possible in the winter months
and in some of the spring and autumn months.
As regards the 2071-2100 time horizon, the
climatic signal is more enhanced and it is very
likely that the precipitation regime decreases
significantly
in the winter and summer
months respectively (more marked in winter),
as well as in spring (March) and autumn
(November), with unimportant changes in the
rest of the months. There is, however,
incertitude concerning the intensity of the
climatic signal. Results obtained through the
downscaling statistical model were compared
with those yielded directly from 9 regional
climatic models.
Another approached research direction
was that of local mechanisms that are
influenced and that modulate in turn the
climate change signal. During the reported
interval, there was investigated the
atmosphere-sea interaction in the western
area of the Black Sea, so as to identify its
effects on the climate variability and change in
Romania. To this aim, we designed and ran
numerical experiments, using the standard
variant of the regional climatic model, with the
Grell convection scheme and the precipitation
scheme of Pal et al. (2000). The used domain
was that of 10-km spatial resolution, defined
by the Romanian team participating in
CECELIA project. Control simulations (CTRL)
and those where the Black Sea and Adriatic
Sea temperature respectively was increased
by 2ºC (WSEA) were performed for 15
summer
(June-August) and winter
(December-February) months, in present
(1970-1975) and future (2094-2099) climate
conditions. Future climate projections are
performed under IPCC's A1B scenario.
Conditions at the lateral boundaries are those
obtained from simulations performed with the
RegCM regional climatic model, at a 25-km
spatial resolution, for the European domain.
These simulations use lateral conditions of
the ECHAM 5 global climatic model, under the
forcing of IPCC's SRES-A1B emission
scenario. The first four days of the analysed
seasonal interval are removed before
analysing all the experiments, so as to allow
spin-up of the model.
The WSEA-type experiments allowed us
to separate the effects of sea water
temperature variability on the local climate
from the effects of large scale processes and
other influences. It is worth mentioning that a
2ºC anomaly of the sea water temperature
agrees with observations regarding the
decadal variability at the Black Sea surface
(Oguz et al., 2006). Differences in the air
pressure field between the sensitivity
experiment and the control one suggest that
modifications caused by the surface sea water
temperatures are smaller under the A1B
scenario, compared to the present climate.
In all the experiments differences are
smaller in summer than in winter. The thermal
effect of the surface sea water temperature is
relatively small. Shifts occur in exchange in the
precipitation pattern. The effects of the surface
sea water temperature fluctuations on
precipitation enhance in the projection of the
future summer climate, especially in the coast
area (Fig. 3). However, such effects also
occur in the cold season, when an average
increase of the precipitation amounts is
noticed almost everywhere across the
country. In this latter case the effect is more
markedly highlighted in the coast area, where
interaction with the topography is possible (the
Adriatic Sea coast).
Results of our analyses regarding the
atmosphere-sea interaction suggest the
importance of a complete representation of
processes taking place in the Black Sea area
for projections of the future climate at local
scale (highlighting the coastal area). It is
necessary, in this context, to perform more
extended numerical experiments.
47
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
a)
c)
b)
d)
Fig. 3. Difference of precipitation amount between the WSEA sensitivity experiment (+2ºC) and the control (CTRL)
one, in present climate conditions and in those of the future climate projection, using the A1B emission scenario.
Climatic monitoring and prediction
Throughout 2009 there were also developed
activities within the project aiming at achieving
the Climatic Atlas of Romania. Researches
also continued for improving prognostic
estimations with a long anticipation (1-3
seasons) of the climatic anomalies in
Romania, using the multifield analogy
method. Experimental estimations were
performed and the success of the method is
being analysed.
More and more specialists use the results
of numerical experiments with climatic models
to elaborate analyses and propose means to
adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate
change. However, climatic modelling is a
complex process requiring, besides the
results of the numerical experiments,
metadata (data that describe the results
obtained with the climatic models). Metadata
are used to identify, assess and use the
results of climatic modelling stored in bulky
and complex digital archives. In the FP7
METAFOR project there was developed a
Common Information Model (CIM) for a
standardized description of the climatic data
and the models that produce them, so that this
48
CIM be adopted by a large community of
specialists interested in the climate change
issue.
Through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP, the Working
Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM)
commissioned the members of Fp7
METAFOR Project to define and collect
metadata for the numerical models and
experiments that will belong to Phase 5 of
CMIP and will constitute the basis for the
elaboration of the Fifth Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
Within the METAFOR Project, 2009 saw
the achievement of a questionnaire aimed at
collecting information and metadata from the
groups that contribute to the new achieve with
results of the numerical experiments with
climatic models CMIP5. The National
Meteorological Administration joined this
effort, contributing to the testing of solutions
chosen by colleagues in the project for the
description and usage of metadata
concerning the climatic models and the results
of numerical experiments performed with
them, from the perspective of the user
interested by the climate change issue.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY
AND CHANGE ON CROPS
During 2009 the Laboratory of
Agrometeorology developed three national
projects of the PNCDI type, as follows:
1. Project PNCDI-2 no. 51073/2007
„Methods to mitigate the impact of climate
change on the wheat crops in southern
Romania”. Project coordinator
NARDI
Fundulea, National Meteorological
Administration being Partner 1. The two
objectives specific to 2009 and the obtained
results included the following aspects:
1.1. Evaluation of the agroclimatic
(thermal and hydric) resources potential
necessary for the growth and development of
the winter wheat crop in the Fundulea
agricultural area, based on the trend of the
mean annual air temperature and
precipitation amounts accumulated during the
agricultural years (September-August) in the
1961-2007 interval. The aim was to highlight
the annual variability and the trend of the
thermal and hydric resources potential, as
well as to compute the frequency (number of
years / %) of the mean annual precipitation
amounts at various reference thresholds and
intervals specific to crops at the level of the
1961-1990 and 1961-2007 intervals or under
the circumstances of precipitation amounts
increased/diminished by ±10 and ±20%
respectively, to finally identify the extreme
years as regards the precipitation regime.
The analysis of the thermal and hydric
resources potential in the Fundulea
agricultural area essentially highlights the
following:
– in the present climatic conditions the
0
mean air temperature is 10.3 C and the
annual precipitation amount is 567.9
mm (1961-1990);
– also the decrease of the precipitation
amounts by about 20% will determine
both the increase of the frequency of
years with precipitation deficit during the
specific vegetation periods and the
increase in intensity of precipitation
deficits, the highest number of cases
being that of the excessively droughty
and droughty intervals, especially in
September-October (18 years / 60%),
May-June (16 years / 53.3%) and the
agricultural year round (15 years /
51.7%);
– under the circumstances of the mean air
temperature increase, the frost intensity
0
( Tmin.15 C, XII-II) at Fundulea will be
less enhanced in the winter season, the
same as the frequency of the days with
minimum temperatures under the
critical biological resilience threshold of
the winter wheat plants, which signify
milder and warmer winters and implicitly
resumed vegetative processes during
the warmer intervals.
Trend of mean annual temperatures and annual precipitation amounts at Fundulea
agrometeorological station in the 1961-2007 period
1.2. Simulating the effects of altering the
vernalisation and photo-period demands on
winter wheat crops, using the DSSAT v3.5
decision-making system and two climate
change scenarios forecasting the future
climate trend over two different time intervals.
DSSAT v3.5 is an upgraded version of the
DSSAT v3.0 system and it includes new cropsimulating models, whereas existing ones
have been significantly improved, especially
the routines that simulate the crops' growth
and development. The two used climatic
scenarios RegCM/IPCC/2080-2099/SRES
A1B and RegCM3 (10-km grid step)/
2020-2050/SRES A1B respectively are
derived from regional climatic models.
Analyses of the simulated results under
the two regional climatic scenarios for the
49
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
2020-2050 and 2080-2099 intervals pointed
at an increased grain yield and a faster
development of the winter wheat crop,
maturation occurring earlier in every analysed
case. The increase of the wheat yield in
climate change circumstances is owed to the
positive effect of the CO2 levels increase in the
atmosphere on photosynthesis, which
counteracts the negative effect of a shortened
vegetation period, as a result of temperature
increase.
Wheat uses the in-soil available water
more efficiently under the regional climatic
predictions for the 2020-2050 and 2080-2099
intervals and the usage efficiency also
increases sensibly against the present
climate situation, as a result of an increased
CO2 assimilation rate.
Simulated results regarding the
alternation of vernalisation and photoperiod
demands depend on the used climatic
scenario and the genetic characteristics of the
wheat sorts. In general, the optimum
combination of vernatisation and photoperiod
demands apt to ensure the best use of the
future climatic resources, thus allowing higher
yields and a reduced annual variability, is that
of the genotypes with moderate vernalisation
and low photoperiod demands, both under
the predictable scenarios for the 2020-2050
period and those for 2080-2099.
„Evaluation of climate change impact on the
agroclimatic potential of Romania, for zoning
the fruit-growing production”. Project
coordinator Research Development Institute
for Fruit Growing Pitesti-Maracineni, National
Meteorological Administration as Partner 1.
Effects of combining vernalisation and photoperiod
coefficients on the winter wheat yields in climate
change conditions, for the Fundulea4-MED genotype
50
Objectives specific to 2009 comprised the
following directions:
analysis of the present (1961-2008)
and predictable (2020-2050 and
2040-2080 decades) trends of the
agrometeorological conditions regime
(thermal and hydric resources) in
Wallachia (Piteşti agrometeorological
station) for the evaluation of the
favourability degree for the fruit growing
yield;
analysis of the predictable effects of
climate change on the dates when the
main phenological phases of the tree
species occur (bud maturation and
flowering at apricot, plum, pear and
apple trees) in Piteşti area, using two
arbitrary scenarios (present climate air
temperature increase by 1ºC or 2ºC,
corresponding to the 2040 and 2080
decades respectively) and the outputs
of the RegCM3/SRES A1B regional
climatic model, at a very fine resolution
(10 km) for the 2020-2050 interval;
Results highlight the following aspects:
the air temperature increase according
to climatic predictions for the future
results in accelerated development
processes, meaning a shortened
duration of the phenological processes
and their occurring at changed, much
earlier dates against the present climatic
conditions;
Mean monthly multiannual air temperature and
precipitation amounts in baseline climatic conditions
(1961-1990) and in those of the RegCM3 / 2020-2050 /
SRES A1B regional climatic predictions
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
In the present (1961-2004) climatic
conditions, the bud maturation and
flowering dates respectively have been
noticed to tend to occur earlier in the
fruit growing plantations from Wallachia
at the apricot, plum, pear and apple
trees, especially after 1980;
as regards the spring-coming index, it
tends to increase throughout the
analysed period, more markedly in
southern Wallachia, meaning that
spring-coming occurs earlier in that part
of the region, in comparison with areas
from the north of the region; in the area
of Wallachia, the years when springcoming occurs earlier are more frequent
in the south and east of the region,
i.e. at Turnu Măgurele, Călăraşi,
Giurgiu, Buzău and Râmnicu Sărat
agrometeorological stations, where the
risk of having the fruit organs affected by
late spring frosts is higher than in the
plantations from north-western
Wallachia (Curtea de Argeş), where
years with a late spring-coming prevail;
at Piteşti, according to the RegCM3
/2020-2050/SRES A1B (10- km grid
step) regional climatic predictions, the
mean annual air temperature will
increase by 1.5ºC in the 2020-2050
interval against the present, the largest
increases being possible especially in
the warm part of the year, i.e. in April
through August. The annual
precipitation amounts will diminish on
the average by about 90 mm, the widest
decreases being estimated to occur
again in the warm season for instance a
45 mm decrease in June against the
present mean climatological values;
at Piteşti, the bud maturation and
flowering phases will occur earlier by 2-8
days in all the fruit growing species
under the arbitrary scenario where the
air temperature may increase by 1ºC
and by 8-12 days at a 2ºC increase
against the present climate. Also, with
the climate change, an increase is
possible of the heat units accumulated
in the 1 February-10 April interval by
12-23% in 2040 in comparison with the
present values and by 30 to 40% in
2080, which would mark an earlier or
extra-early spring coming and implicitly
an increased risk versus late spring
frosts;
Annual occurring dates of the bud maturation and
flowering phases at the apricot, plum, pear and apple
trees in baseline climatic conditions (1961-1990) and
under the two predictable scenarios for the interval
2020-2040 (the 2040 decade) and 2060-2100 (the
2080 decade) at Piteşti station.
51
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
„Assessing vulnerabilities o the danger of
birds spreading harmful agents in the Nature
2000 area” Project coordinator: Research
and Development Plant Protection Institute
Bucharest Baneasa. National Meteorological
Administration being Partner 3.
During 2009, the objectives were to
identify the climatic factors favouring the
occurrence and development of the Fusarium
graminearum and Septoria tritici agents in the
winter wheat, to establish and select the
critical thresholds and to assess the risk
potential against the attack of Fusariose
in the winter wheat
case study for
Giurgiu/Comana /Giurgiu County / the west of
Burnazului Plain, Sf. Gheorghe/Sf.
Gheorghe/Tulcea County/Danube Delta, Tg.
Mureş/Glodeni/Mureş County/Mureş river
Corridor. and the agricultural area of
Wallachia.
Results highlight the following:
to identify the methods to prevent ad
fight against Fusarium graminearum
attack to the winter wheat, it is
necessary to currently monitor the
agrometeorological conditions,
especially in May and June, which is the
period of maximum sensitivity to the
emergence and development of the
fungus;
the largest values of the high risk (when
both favouring factors occur, i.e.
maximum diurnal air temperature from
20 to 26ºC and air moisture ≥80%) are
recorded at all of the three analysed
agrometeorological stations: Giurgiu
(46 years / 98%), Sf. Gheorghe Delta
(44 years / 94%) and Targu Mures (42
years / 89%), which points at a risk as
high as 89-98% for the occurrence of the
Fusariose attack in the winter wheat;
assessing the Septoriosis occurrence
risk in the winter wheat case study in
the area of Wallachia. To this aim, there
were selected the agroclimatic
52
conditions specific to Septoriosis
occurrence at 11 weather stations with
an agrometeorological schedule,
considered as representative for the
Wa l l a c h i a n a r e a : A l e x a n d r i a ,
Bucharest-Afumaţi, Călăraşi, Fundulea,
Giurgiu, Olteniţa, Roşiori, Slobozia,
Turnu-Măgurele, Zimnicea and Videle.
After processing, analysing, interpreting
and framing by risk classes the
agroclimatic factors favouring the
occurrence of Septoriosis in the winter
wheat crop, it was noticed that the
highest risk values represented solely
by the maximum temperature factor
0
(22-26 C) are reported at the
agrometeorological stations: Olteniţa
(55 cases/26 analysed years), Zimnicea
(22 cases/27 analysed years) and
Giurgiu (35 cases/48 analysed years).
The highest values of the major risk, i.e.
maximum diurnal air temperature from
20 to 26ºC and air moisture ≥80%)
were recorded at: Turnu-Măgurele
(14 cases/48 analysed years), Fundulea
(14 cases/48 analysed years) and
Videle (33 cases /47 analysed years),
which yields an occurring frequency of
the Septoriosis attack in the winter
wheat crop ranging from 30 to 96%.
Spatial representation of winter wheat vulnerability
against the risk of Septoriosis occurrence in Wallachia
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
The Remote Sensing and GIS Laboratory
carried out several national and international
projects during 2009, as follows:
P r o j e c t F P 6 S T R E P :
Hydrometeorological data resources and
technologies for effective flash flood
forecasting (HYDRATE GOCE 037024)
The HYDRATE project is mainly aimed to
improve the scientific ground of flash-flood
forecasting through a better understanding of
past flash floods, by developing and
harmonizing a modern Europe-wide flash
flood observation strategy as well as by
building a coherent set of early warning
technologies and instruments. HYDRATE
has developed a European free-access flash
flood database that provides the international
scientific community with hydrometeorological data. Its final objective is to
improve the flash flood forecasting capacities
across hydrographic basins that lack
standard measurement and monitoring
systems by using the available information
and a thorough understanding of triggering
phenomena and processes.
In 2009, the main goal was to assess the
differences between radar-estimated
precipitation and rain-gauge values in the
Moldavian Plateau. Research was focused
on daily station-recorded accumulations
(24-hour) that were used to calibrate radars,
thus improving the hydrological modeling and
flood forecasting.
Data were provided by the Barnova
S-band Doppler WSR-98D radar and the
stations. The validations were aimed to
predict the rain-gauge values in certain areas
using radar information and adjusting
parameters. It was proven that the radar data
are accurate enough within a radius of 150 km
(Fig. 1) and the comparisons with rain-gauge
values substantiate this point.
Project PNCDI
2/2007: Satellite
Information-Based Service for Managing
Emergency Situations. It is carried out in
collaboration with the Romanian Space
Agency, the Polytechnic University of
Bucharest, the National Institute of Hydrology
and Water Management, the Center for
Advanced Studies and Research, and the
Romanian Center for Remote Sensing in
Agriculture.
The project is aimed at organizing a
national service to provide products mainly
derived from processed satellite images,
useful in the management of emergency
situations. This service will take into
consideration local and national requests in
order to be integrated in the National
Emergency Situation Management System
and it will also have to meet European
conditions to be compatible with GMES
Emergency Response Core Service. The
Service will provide users with basic
information products (land cover/use maps,
infrastructure, and administrative units) as
well as with emergency products (maps of
affected areas, their evolution in space and
time, quantified information on damages).
Using SIGUR in case of crisis will increase
efficiency and it will provide a better
understanding of the studied phenomenon,
finally helping reduce losses in human lives
and goods.
The image-data set covering Romania
and Bulgaria totaling 160 indexed sub-images
can be used to analyze the possibility of floodrelated disasters and the methods to react in
such cases. Typically, image analyses include
identifications of flooded areas, searching for
flight paths to bring in humanitarian supplies,
and detecting areas to be used for refugee
camps.
The KIM image-panel application was
designed in 2009. It defines the features of
those images bearing the semantic label
“lake” (Fig. 1,2 ). This application is based on a
probabilistic system that gets information
using measures of Information Theory
(Shannon entropy, mutual information and
Kullback-Leibler divergence). The system
was divided in three main levels: the image
space, the contents-index space, and the
semantic label space. In the case of optical
images (such as Landsat TM), there are used
the primitive spectral and texture
characteristics in order to identify the lakes in
database images.
The research resulted in a conceptual
model of the service, several connections with
final users (Ministry of Environment, General
Inspectorate for Emergency Situations) were
established and the on-line system GIS
SIGUR was implemented. There were also
designed automatic satellite data processing
algorithms (obtaining water masks from
optical satellite images), the distributed
hydrological model Vflo TM became operational
53
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
within the Service and the basic SIGUR
components were evaluated (automatic
obtaining of the water mask from satellite
images using the KIM system, fast mapping of
flood episodes, hydrological modeling of flood
episodes).The above-mentioned results were
used in carrying out a number of mapping
products for the July-August 2008 flood that
affected Romania (more than 35 products).
Fig. 1. Application defining the features of an image bearing the semantic label “lake”; the automatic learning
updates every requested parameter and the a posteriori map is re-designed in the right part of the screen.
Fig. 2. Final results for a semantic label “lake”.
Project PNCDI-2/2007 RISCASAT:
Developing new satellite data-derived
products to meet user requests in the field
of managing hydro-meteorological risk
situations. It is carried out in collaboration
with the Forest Research and Management
Institute, the Romanian Space Agency, the
University of Bucharest and the Transylvania
University of Brasov.
54
This project is mainly aimed to create new
products by calibrating, validating, interpreting
and analyzing standard satellite data-derived
products (SPOT, IRS, RADARSAT, ERS,
LANDSAT, QUICK-BIRD, EOS/AM, TERRA
and EOS/PM AQUA, IKONOS, TERRASARX) tailored to the user requests for managing
hydro-meteorological risk situations in
Romania.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
A number of image products to be used in
monitoring and evaluating agricultural
vegetation, flood-affected areas, forest risks
(windthrows, wildfires) and the quality of the
Black Sea water were elaborated in 2009. To
this aim, the equipment and instruments
needed for measurements were procured and
procedures were designed to determine every
parameter used by calibration/validation
algorithms:
determining Leaf Area Index (LAI) with a
Delta-T SunScan SS1 system and by
processing digital images with a
specialized software (CAN-EYE
developed in MATLAB);
using the S-WCA-M003 sensor to
determine wind speed and direction an
important factor related to windthrows;
using the S-LIA-M003 sensor to determine
photosynthetic light intensity;
determining the location of GCP points by
GPS ProXH and GPS GeoXM
equipments;
measuring turbidity with a Hanna HI 98713
device;
measuring temperature, salinity etc. by
the Hanna Multiparameter HI 9828.
Leaf Area Index is a structural parameter
of primary importance in the quantitative
analysis of several physical and biological
processes related to vegetation dynamics and
its effects on the global carbon cycle and
climate. The LAI products derived from
TERRA/AQUA-MODIS satellite data were
validated by intercomparisons with the
reference LAI map obtained from highresolution FORMASAT-2 images (fig. 3).
Fig. 3. LAI map for Romania obtained from MODIS data, 05.07.2009
A number of dedicated MODIS products
connected to the detection of snow-covered
areas (fig. 4 and 5) and snow albedo were
elaborated and validated in order to monitor
and evaluate the snow cover. The algorithm
used in determining the extent of snowcovered areas is mainly based on a so-called
snow index (Normalized Difference Snow
Index NDSI): normalized difference of two
bands, one in the visible and one in the nearinfrared or short-wave infrared parts of the
spectrum.
It was also elaborated a method to
analyze inshore water turbidity using MODIS
images as well as a method to determine Land
Surface Temperature (LST) from NOAAAVHR images. The convenience of this
methodology is mainly attributable to the
involved costs; by determining as accurately
as possible a coefficient, it will be possible to
find out the amount of suspension sediments
for any day of the year and the entire delta
coast.
In order to detect the areas affected by
windthrows, there were established
calibration and geometric validation methods
using high-resolution space images
(Formosat 2, Landsat TM).
55
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Fig. 4. Forest areas within the Arges basin and the overlapping of snow-covered areas, 22 March 2009.
Fig. 5. 3D in the Arges area; topography and snow-covered areas on 22 March 2009 (the Global
Mapper software was used).
A number of products derived from MODIS
data validated by intercomparison with highresolution satellite data (ASTER, SPOT) and
GPS measurements were designed for flood
monitoring. Such products include quasi-real
time situation maps, maps of flooded areas
and their classification (Fig. 6), maps of flood
evolution and damage-estimating products
(Fig. 7).
Fig. 6. Water mask derived from a SPOT 4 image (28 July 2008, 09:20 UTC
56
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Fig. 7. Estimation of flood-affected areas within the Rădăuţi-Prut area (Botoşani County), on 28 July , 2008
PROJECT PNCDI-2/2007 MEDSCEN:
Thorough researches aimed to create a
pilot virtual-space educational system that
simulates natural disaster scenarios and
ways of action to be followed by citizens
and institutions in case of crisis. It is carried
out in collaboration with the National Defense
University “Carol I”, the Romanian Space
Agency and the following companies:
SIVECO Romania, ALTAFACTOR, MBL and
ETC.
Within the project, it was carried out a pilot
system for an educational network that uses
eLearning technologies and a portal
dedicated to the building of the intervention,
protection and reconstruction culture in case
of natural disasters or other types of disasters.
A digital model for developing knowledge
on providing protection against severe
weather phenomena was carried out in 2009.
To this aim, it was structured a portal of
knowledge depending on the pilot system to
be used in eLearning-based educational
works.
Several methods to obtain certain
products derived from satellite data were also
developed by the Remote Sensing and GIS
Laboratory. They are useful in activities such
as:
determining the snow water reserves of
the winter-spring season in the
Carpathians hydrographic basins of
hydro-energetic interest (Arges, Doftana,
Lotru, Somesul Mic, and Raul Mare);
soil surface temperature maps obtained
from AQUA TERRA/MODIS images of
1-km resolution at a frequency of one
image per day;
composite/synthesis maps of land
surface temperature obtained from MSG
images that allow us to eliminate the
clouds.
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES
1. Project DESATEMP (2007-2010): Satellite
detection of global climate change-related
thermal gradients across Romania using
heat islands; solutions to mitigate their
effects.
This project is mainly aimed to determine
in real time the heat islands (UHI) using
spectral information provided by several
satellite platforms in order to find out a number
of land surface parameters (albedo, soil
surface temperature). During the phases of
the year 2009, LandSAF-LST products (soil
57
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
surface temperature) were processed for the
whole year 2008. Figure 1 shows a composite
image of the maximum soil surface
temperatures on 15 August 2008, obtained
from MSG2 data.
Fig. 1. Maximum soil surface temperatures obtained
from MSG2 data on 15.08.2008
2. Pre-operational system to carry out
vertical profiles of air temperature and
humidity using NOAA/ATOVS and
MetOp/ATOVS data.
In order to get profiles of air temperature
and humidity from infrared and microwave
data provided by polar orbiting satellites, it
was used the IAPP model - version 3.0. This
model was run for two different situations: a)
with auxiliary data from a numerical model
(GFS) and surface observation data
(METAR); and b) with no auxiliary data. To this
purpose, a pre-operational system was
created to capture satellite and auxiliary data,
carry out the IAPP model, analyze and display
the results.
The pre-operational system was
implemented on a LINUX Red Hat Enterprise
system, using a Fortran G95 compiler, the
NCL high-level programming language and
bash scripts. It works with real-time data as
well as with archive data.
For this study, the model was run first
using the satellite data set together with
numerical weather forecasting data and
surface observation data (auxiliary data) for
the year 2007 and secondly the same 2007
satellite data set was used but this time
without numerical forecast data and surface
observation data.
When the temperature and humidity
profiles for 2007 had been obtained, two
58
validation sets were built: set A for the model
run with satellite and auxiliary data and set B
for the model run that uses only satellite data
and takes into consideration the widely
accepted collocation criteria.
A comparative analysis of the validation
sets for the two above-mentioned cases has
shown first the importance of auxiliary data for
the inversion process used by the IAPP model
to calculate atmospheric profiles. Thus, the
accuracy of profiles calculated with auxiliary
data is about 30% higher than that which uses
no such data, in terms of mean squared error
(MSE) as against the collocated radiosounding profiles.
The analysis of each data set showed an
aspect related to the building of the validation
set that has never been mentioned in the
specialized literature. This aspect was called
the spatial coherence condition for the
validation set. When this new condition is used
in building the validation set, it is removed the
dependence of MSE on the geographic
position of the Field of Vue (FOV), as there are
used FOVs with identical geographic
coordinates related to the radio-sounding
station and not only the distance between
them when the validation sets are compared.
However, this new validation condition has a
relative drawback, as it limits the number of
collocated pairs in the validation set; using a
longer data string can be a solution then.
The accuracy of atmospheric profiles is
comparable with the mean values obtained by
other researching centers around the world as
regards Temperature (2 degrees Kelvin), but
the newest IAPP version gave more profiles
with an accuracy under 1 degree Kelvin. It
should be mentioned that this study is the first
one to use the IAAP model version 3.0.
As regards the accuracy of humidity
profiles, it is even better than what has been
obtained until now by 0.5 g / kg on average.
Every humidity profile behaves remarkably
well in the upper part of the atmosphere, but it
frequently underestimates/overestimates the
mixing ratio of water vapors in the atmospheric
layer close to the ground.
Using the NCL and IDL languages, there
have been written several software programs
to represent data (Fig. 2 and 3). They are
flexible and can generate a number of output
file formats, the projection can be changed
etc., so that a migration to an operational
system tailored for a particular user should be
eased.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Fig. 2. Temperature field from NOAA-18 ATOVS data at 850mb on 1.01.2007, 11:33 GMT
Fig. 3. Temperatures: NOAA-18 ATOVS (blue) and RAOB (yellow) at 850 mb, overlapped on the MSG HRV
image, 06.11.2008 12:00 GMT
59
NATIONAL SCHOOL OF
METEOROLOGY
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
components dedicated to the users.
The professional training programme
destined to the staff working within the
meteorology domain in 2009, was mainly
directed to the organizing of lectures with
attendance and e-learning courses,
workshops, laboratories, case studies. A
synthesis of the training courses organized by
the National School of Meteorology (NSM) is
presented in the table below:
Development of the education and
professional training for the staff
working in meteorology
The more and more intense use of the elearning platform and the increase
in the number of registered guests
required a reconfiguration of the
www.snm.meteoromania.ro Web site and
the development of new access and database
COURSE
CODE
c1
c2
c3
COURSE NAME
Notions of general meteorology
Structure and functioning of the national
meteorological network
c6
c7
c8
c9
Modules of general meteorology
Visual meteorological observations – visibility
and clouds
English language for forecasters
Basic capacity building for forecaster
meteorologists
Mesoscale meteorology + case studies
Dynamic meteorology
Physic meteorology
c10
Climatology
c4
c5
NO. OF
REGISTERED
TRAINEES
DESTINED TO *):
HE
102
HE & CE from the meteorological network
CE, particularly from research and weather
forecasting
118
HE & CE from the meteorological network
CE – forecaster meteorologists
CE – for the position of forecaster
meteorologist
CE – forecaster meteorologists
CE – forecaster meteorologists + research
CE – forecaster meteorologists + research
204
45
CE – meteorologists + researchers
50
9
34
8
6
10
TOTAL
586
*) CE = College education trainees
HE = High school education trainees
The conception of the professional
training planning and education curriculum
was the result of analyses and questionnaires
(filled in on-line or during the courses)
performed among the beneficiaries (weather
forecast, research-modelling, meteorological
network, etc). The use of the questionnaire
entitled “Knowing the participant satisfaction”
among the trainees underlined the majority of
positive aspects in the unfolding of the
courses and workshops and made possible
the elaboration of the professional training
strategy in the domain of meteorology.
Besides standard courses and
workshops of basic and continuous capacity
building, the National School of Meteorology
organized, on contract basis, specialized
training courses for different beneficiaries
such as the Romanian Air Traffic Services
Administration (ROMATSA) and the National
Anti-Hail System and Precipitation Increase
Administration. The following training courses
were organized: “Use of the remote sensing
techniques and numerical modeling in
weather forecasting” and “Introduction in the
convective systems analysis“.
An important professional training activity
in 2009 was the programme entitled “Initial
capacity building for meteorologists”, which
lasted about 9 months, with the participation of
9 meteorologists from Regional Weather
Forecasting Centres. These training courses
included several modules of general
meteorology, mesoscale and physic
meteorology, climatology, observations and
63
NATIONAL SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY
measurements, specific IT&C components. In
the end, the trainees passed a graduation
exam.
The training plan of the high-school
education staff (observer and technician)
included e-learning teaching: “Meteorological
measurements and observations”, “Visibility
and clouds observation”, “Structure and
functioning of the national meteorological
network”.
The National Meteorological Administration, through the National School of
Meteorology’s specialists, participated to the
actions of the Sectorial Committee for
Environmental Capacity Building within the
Project entitled “Pro Environmen tDeveloping and authorizing an evaluation and
certification centre for vocational
competences within the enevironmental
protection sector” - POSDRU/20/1.4/G/92.
The actions consisted in preparation/evaluation studies, as well as training
courses for experts in assessing
preofessional competences, in Romania and
the Netherlands, enjoying the partnership of
the National Council for Adult Capacity
Building, from the Romanian part.
The National Meteorological Administration provided specialized parctice for 43
students from the Faculty of Geography within
the University of Bucharest following a
practice planning carried out within the
National School of Meteorology.
For a better development of the capacity
building activity, Mr. Jeffrey Wilson, Director of
the Education and Training Division,
64
Development and Regional Activities
Department within the World Meteorological
Organization, honoured the invitation to visit
the National School of Meteorology over the
period 28 September-1 October 2009. This
was an excellent opportunity to exchange
information and ideas on the present
tendencies of the meteorological education at
national and world level.
Within the context of the collaboration
between the National School of Meteorology
and the Sectorial Committee for Environmental
Capacity Building, the National Authority - the
National Council for Adult Capacity Building,
respectively, there were established actions
involving the National School of Meteorology
which will participate to the contract entitled
“PRO COMPETENT
Qualifications and
competency certificates for a sustainable
development” 58/1.4/S/32519 within the
Sectorial Operational Programme for Human
Resources Development 2007-2013.
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL
PROGRAMMES/PROJECTS
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMMES/PROJECTS
Projects financed by the Ministry of Education and Research
No.
Project name
Financed by
PROJECTS IN PROGRESS 2007-2011
1
Romanian LIDAR Systems Network –
ROLINET
2
Optical/spectroscopic methods to perceive
and measure change/pollution/alteration of
normal environment structure and
composition – MODSPECTRA
Satellite information-based system for
emergency situations management – SIGUR
3
National Research
Development Institute
for Optoelectronics
INOE 2000
National Institute for
Research-Development
of Materials Physics
Space Agency
4
Assessment of climate change impact on the
agroclimatic potential of Romania, in view to
zone the fruit-tree yield - CLIMACTPOMI
Fruit Research Institute
Pitesti Maracineni
5
Methods to mitigate the climate change
impact on the wheat yields in southern
Romania - GRIMPCLIM
6
The satellite detection of the thermal
gradients generated by the global climatic
changes over Romania’s territory by Heat
Island, including solutions to decreasing the
effects - DESATEMP
Modernization and predictive assessment for
Romania of the impact of climate change
feedback on land use/cover with satellite and
biogeological data IN SITU -MOSATCLIM
The geological diversity of the Upper
Paleozoic deposits in Romania and the
relation with climate global change PALEOCLIM Study on the installation of a Cherenkov
telescope for very high energy gamma
radiation in Romania –GAMMATEL
National Agricultural
Research and
Fundulea
University of
Agronomical Sciences
and Veterinarian
Medicine Bucharest
7
8
9
10
11
12
Researches for the development of a
program for the monitoring of radioactive
waste storing sites. Case study DFDSMA
Saligny – MONA
Integration and exploitation of information
concerning the distribution of thunder strikes
distribution on the Romanian territory, for the
transport infrastructure maintenance and
power distribution - TRASNET
Profound researches for the creation of a
pilot educational system in the cyberspace
for the simulation of scenarios concerning
natural disasters and the way citizens and
National Research
for Optoelectronics
INOE 2000
University of Bucharest
Institute for Space
Sciences
Autonomous Board for
Nuclear Activities –
Nuclear Researches
Subsidiary, Pitesti
Polytechnic University
of Bucharest
University of Defence
Carol I
institutions act in crisis situations - MEDSCEN
67
NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL PROGRAMS/PROJECTS
13
Determination of vulnerabilities in the hazard
of dissemination by birds of harmful agents in
the Natura 2000 areas - HORUS
Institute for Plant
Protection
14
Changes in the precipitation regime within
the Danube lower basin in the context of
climate change – Bilateral project
Romania-Bulgaria
Integrated system for early warning,
monitoring and analysis of the drought risk in
Romania – SIAT
National Authority for
Scientific Research
15
Space Agency
16
Applications and basic services for the
monitoring of land use by using geospatial
data and technology – MUTER -
17
Elaboration of the national multi-disciplinary
strategies for early warning, monitoring and
control of the re-emergent disease carried by
vector mosquitoes (Dispera: Culicidae),
distributed within the European operation
area – VECBOLEM -
National Institute of
for Microbiology and
Immunology
« Cantacuzino”
18
Optomecatronic system for the measuring of
the electromagnetic fund for ground remote
sensing experiments of galactic and
extragalactic-origin gamma quanta –
OPTOGATRON-
Institute for Space
Sciences
RESEARCH PROGRAMMES/PROJECTS
IN PROGRESS 2009-2011
Nr.
crt.
Programme name
(acronym)
Financed by
1
NATO
European Union
2
DYNAMITE
European Union
3
ENSEMBLES
European Union
4
LIFE AWARE
European Union
5
EUFAR
European Union
6
CECILIA
European Union
7
HYDRATE
European Union
8
ASCABOS
European Union
9
RISCASAT
Ministry of Education
and Research
68
Space Agency
RADO Project - Romanian Atmospheric 3D
research Observatory, financed from the
cooperation programme between Norway and
Romania, in partnership with the Norvegian
Institute for Air Research (NILU), supposes
the implementation of advanced equipment
and techniques for: atmospheric research,
pollution studies, training and dialogue with
the society. According to the project
implementation schedule, over the year 2009,
besides project coordinating and
management activities, the following steps
were made: establishment of the observation
network, carrying out of measuring
procedures and good practice rules,
connecting of RADO components to the
network, establishment of the data flux
scheme and collecting procedures, carrying
out of the measuring programme scheme,
training stages for the new equipment,
meetings within the Consortium.
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
MODSPECTRA Project
Optic/spectroscopic methods to
detect and measure the
change/pollution/deterioration of
structure and composition of the
normal environment – a PNCDI
Programme, aiming to apply modern
methods of high resolution and sensitivity
absorption optic spectroscopy.
The method used for the detection
and characterization of pollutants within
this project is the differential optic
absorption spectroscopy (DOAS). For the
selected configuration, one DOAS unit
combines the transmitter and the receiver.
This unit works combined with a mirror
placed up to 200 m far from the
transmission-reception unit.
Within this stage, the retroreflector
was settled in the field on a professional
tripod placed at 40 m far from the unit.
The transmission-reception unit can
be automatically rotated and settled to
operate with more reflectors placed in
different locations, thus creating more
light ways and covering a specific area.
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC
COLLABORATION PROGRAMMES
I. European Cooperation in Science
and Technology Programme (COST):
Action 725: “Establishing a European
Phenological Data Platform for
Climatological Applications”, period
2004-2009;
Action 734: “Impacts of Climate
Change and Variability on European
Agriculture”-CLIVAGRI, period
2006-2010;
II. Conferences and workshops
1. Meeting of group leaders within COST
Action 734, Florence, Italy, 5-6
February 2009.
2. International Conference on Scope and
current limits of linking phenology
and climatology in the context
of COST 725 in cooperation with
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Geisenheim,Germany, 10-12 March
2009.
3. The 7th COST 734 Management
Committee and Working Groups
Meeting, Bucharest, Romania, 1-3
April 2009.
4.The 30th Session of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), aiming to help the
th
production of the 5 Assessment
Report (AR5), Antalya, Turkey, 21-23
April 2009.
5. The 3rd EIONET Workshop on Climate
Change Vulnerability, Impacts and
Adaptation, organized by the
European Environment Agency (EEA),
Copenhagen, Denmark, 30 June-01
July 2009.
6. WMO Nowcasting Workshop, Whistler
B.C., Canada, 30 August-4 September
2009.
7. T h e 4 3 r d C o n f e r e n c e o n R a d a r
Meteorology organized by the American
Meteorological Society (AMS),
Williamsburg VA, USA, 5-9 October 2009.
8. The Inter-Regional Workshop on
Indices, and Early Warning Systems
for Drought, organized by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO),
in collaboration with the National
Drought Mitigation Centre (NDMC),
Lincoln, Nebraska, USA,
8-11
December 2009.
69
PUBLICATIONS
SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS
Bain, V., Newinger, O., Gaume, E.,
Bernardara, P., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A.,
Garcia, J., Medina, V., Sempere-Torres,
D., Velasco, D., Blaškovicová, L., Blöschl,
G., Viglione, A., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A.,
Irimescu, A., Stăncălie, Gh., Kohnova, S.,
Szolgay, J., Koutroulis, A., Tsanis, I.,
Marchi, L., Preciso, E. (2009), European
flash flood data collation and analisys,
Flood Risk Management: Research and
Practice, editori: Samuels P., Huntington,
S . , A l l s o p , W. , H a r r o p , J . , E d .
Taylor&Francis Group, ISBN 978-0-41548507-4, Londra, Anglia, pp. 1577-1585;
Bogdan, O., Marinică, I. (2009), The drought in
Romania. Case study - Oltenia, Studia
Universitas Babeş-Bolyai, Geographia,
LIV, 3, 2009, Cluj Napoca, Cluj University
Press ISSN: 1221-079X, pp. 41-48;
Bogdan, O., Marinică, I. (2009), Caracteristici
climatice ale iernii 2007-2008 în Oltenia,
Revista Geografică T. XVI, 2009, Serie
Nouă (revistă acreditată CNCSIS), ARS
DOCENDI Universitatea din Bucureşti,
ISSN 1224 256 X, pp. 73-81;
Bogdan, O., Marinică, I., Mic, L.-E. (2009), Al
doilea maxim pluviometric de toamnă în
România, Analele Universităţii Spiru
Haret, Seria Geografie, Nr. 12, 2009, ISSN
1453-8792, Fundaţia România de Mâine
Bucureşti, pp. 91-98;
Bostan, D., Mihăilă, D., Tănasă, I. (2009), The
abundant precipitations in the period 2227 of July,2008, from Suceava county and
the surrounding areas. Causes and
consequences
lucrare prezentată în
cadrul Conferinţei Aerul şi apa
componente ale mediului, Universitatea
„Babes-Bolyai”, Facultatea de Geografie
Cluj Napoca 20-21 martie 2009, publicată
în Riscuri şi catastrofe, an VIII nr.6/2009,
pp. 61-70, Casa Cărţii de Ştiinţă, Cluj
Napoca;
Burada, C., Sandu, O. (2009), July 2007 heat
wave in Oltenia (south-west of Romania)
in the context of climate change,
Geographia Technica nr 1/2009, Cluj
University Press, ISSN 2065-4421, pp. 820;
70
Burada, C., Sandu, O. (2009), Physics and
mathematics principles of wind
intensifications in PBL; Customization for
the south-western Romania, Proceedings
of the 2009 ASC, Editura Granada,
Bucureşti, ISSN 1843-6838, p. 37;
Burada, C., Sandu, O., Băcescu, A. (2009),
Anomalies enregistrées dans le sud-ouest
de la Roumanie dans le contexte d'une
année très chaude, Geographia Technică,
Cluj University Press, ISSN 2065-4421,
pp. 103-108;
Burada, C., Sandu, O. (2009), Wind
particularities in Oltenia due to the
presence of the carpathian-balcanic arch,
Riscuri şi catastrofe, nr 6/2009, Casa Cărţii
de Ştiinţă, Cluj-Napoca, ISSN 1584-5273,
pp. 93-98;
Cheval S., Dumitrescu A., Bell A. (2009), The
urban heat island of Bucharest during the
extreme high temperatures of July 2007.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 97:
pp. 391-401;
Cheval S., Dumitrescu A. (2009), The July
urban heat island of Bucharest as
derived from MODIS images, Theoretical and
Applied Climatology, 96(1-2): pp. 145-153;
Crăciunescu V., Flueraru, C., Anderson, E.,
Nedelcu, I., Stăncălie, Gh., Irimescu, A.
(2009), Mapping and monitoring the 20052008 floods in Romania, using remote
sensing techniques, Studii şi Cercetări,
Geology Geography, Bistriţa, 14, Ed.
Supergraph, ISSN 1582-5168, pp. 107122;
Crăciunescu, V., Flueraru, C., Stăncălie, Gh.,
Irimescu, A. (2009), Developing a rapid
mapping and monitoring service for flood
management using remote sensing
techniques, Flood Risk Management:
Research and Practice, editori: Samuels
P., Huntington, S., Allsop, W., Harrop, J.,
Ed. Taylor & Francis Group, ISBN 978-0415-48507-4, Londra, Anglia, pp. 237-243;
Crăciunescu, V., Caian, M., Flueraru, C.,
Nerţan, A. (2009), On-line Air Quality
Monitoring and Warning Support System
for Bucharest Urban Area, Geographia
Technica Nr. 1/2009, pp. 21-30;
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
Dierer, S., Arpagaus, M., Seifert, A.,
Avgoustoglou, E., Dumitrache, R.,
Grazzini, F., Mercogliano, P., Mielli, M.,
Starosta, K. (2009), Deficiencies in
quantitative precipitation forecasts:
sensitivity studies using the COSMO
model, Meteorologische Zeitschrift. Vol.
18., No.6, pp. 631-645;
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P.,
Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A.,
Blaskovicova, L., Bloschl, G., Borga, M.,
Dumitrescu, A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia,
J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis,
A., Marchi, L., Mătreaţă, S., Medina, V.,
Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D.,
Stăncălie, Gh., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I.,
Velasco, D., Viglione, A. (2009), A
compilation of data on European flash
floods, Journal of Hydrology, Ed. Elsevier,
vol. 367, 1-2, ISSN 0022-1694,
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.028, pp.
70-78;
Georgescu, F., Taşcu, S., Banciu, D., (2009),
Tropical air mass advection and frontal
instability in severe weather events. Case
study, Romanian Reports in Physics, Vol.
61, No. 1, pp. 129138;
Georgescu, F., Taşcu, S., Caian, M., Banciu,
D. (2009), A severe blizzard event in
Romania. Case study, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 9, pp. 623634;
Gerard, L., Piriou, J.-M., Geleyn, J.-F.,
Brožkova, R., Banciu, D. (2009), Cloud
and precipitation parameterization in a
meso-gamma scale operational weather
prediction
model, Monthly Weather
Review, Volume 137 Issue 11, pp. 39603977;
Irimescu, A., Stăncălie, Gh., Crăciunescu V.,
Flueraru, C., Anderson, E. (2009), The
use of Remote Sensing and GIS
techniques in flood risk monitoring and
damage assessment: A study case in
Romania, Threats to global water security,
editori: Jones, A., Vardanian, T.,
Hakopian, C., NATO Science for Peace
and Security Series C: Environmental
Security, Ed. Springer, ISBN 978-90-4812343-8, pp. 167-177;
Margelli F., Rossi S., Cheval S., Georgiadis T.
(2009), Water and energy interaction in
urban planning, Bolletino Geofisico,
XXXII(3-4): pp. 55-78;
Marinică, I. (2009), Considerations upon the
heat wave from July 2007, Forum
Geografic. Studii şi cercetări de geografie
şi protecţia mediului, Year 8, No. 8, 2009,
pp. 86-96, University of Craiova, ISSN
1583-1523, The journal is indexed in
international databases: EBSCO Academic Search Complete, starting with
01.01.08,
http://www.ebscohost.com/titleLists/a9hjournals.pdf;
Marinică, I., Chimişliu, C. (2009),
Considerations upon the Temperature
Humidity Index in Oltenia in the period
2000-2007, Muzeul Olteniei Craiova,
Oltenia. Studii şi comunicări. Ştiinţele
Naturii, Tom. XXV/2009, ISSN 1454-6914,
pp. 297-304, Coverage: - Thomson
Reuters (ISI) Zoological Record;
Marinică, I. (2009), Weather instability in
Oltenia between May 25 and June 6,
Analele Universităţii din Craiova Seria
geografie
Annals of the University
Craiova Series Geography EUC Editura
Universitaria anul 2009, Vol. XII, 2009, pp.
33-49, ISSN: 1224
4112, Review
Acreditated by CNCSIS;
Mihailă, D., Bostan, D., Tănasă, I. (2009), Les
precipitations abondantes de l'ouest d'
Ucraine et du nord de Moldavie,
enregistrées dans la période 23- 28 juillet
2008. Causes et consequences, lucrarea
prezentată la facultatea de Geografie,
Cluj-Napoca publicată în Riscuri şi
catastrofe, catalog XXII/ 2009, pp. 317322, University Press ,Cluj-Napoca;
Oprea, I.C., Bell, A. (2009), Meteorological
environment of a tornado outbreak in
Southern Romania, Nat. Hazards Earth
Syst. Sci., 9, pp. 609-622;
Rusz, O., Codrea, V., Barbu, O., (2009),
Estimation of mean annual temperatures
in Ocna Dej Formation (Middle Badenian)
at Praid based on coexistence approach
method Muzeul Olteniei Craiova. Studii şi
comunicări. Ştiinţele Naturii, Tom. XXV,
pp. 337-342;
71
PUBLICATIONS
Sandu, O., Burada, C. (2009), Winter 20062007 in Oltenia compared with winter
2007-2008, Riscuri şi catastrofe, nr
6/2009, Casa Cărţii de Ştiinţă, ClujNapoca, ISSN 1584-5273, pp. 115-122;
Săndulache C., Cheval S., (2009),
Precipitaţiile atmosferice fenomen de risc
in Munţii Parâng, Com. Geog., XIII: pp.
103-112;
Stăncălie, Gh., Crăciunescu, V., Irimescu, A.
(2009), Spatial data integration for
emergency services of flood
management, Threats to global water
security, editori: Jones, A., Vardanian, T.,
72
Hakopian, C., NATO Science for Peace and
Security Series C: Environmental
Security, Ed. Springer, ISBN
978-90481-2343-8, pp. 155-165;
Stăncălie, Gh., Antonescu, B., Oprea, C.,
Irimescu, A., Catană, S., Dumitrescu, A.,
Barbuc, M., Mătreaţă, S. (2009),
Representative flash flood events in
Romania, Case studies, Flood Risk
Management: Research and Practice,
editori: Samuels P., Huntington, S., Allsop,
W., Harrop, J., Ed. Taylor & Francis
Group, ISBN 978-0-415-48507-4, Londra,
Anglia, pp. 1587-1596;
FINANCIAL REPORT
ANNUAL REPORT 2009
FINANCIAL REPORT
The turnover of National Meteorological Administration was 55.423.292 lei (RON) (about 13.856.000
EUR), iand the exploitation expenses were worth 54.576.668 lei (RON) (about 13.644.000 EUR).
The figure below renders the structure of the turnover by sources.
Services for
ROMATSA,
3.54%
Research,
2.00%
Other
beneficiaries,
6.96%
State budget,
87.50%
Turnover structure
The figure below renders the structure of the exploitation expenses by composing elements.
Social protection,
7,442,109 lei
13,63%
Maintenance,
Repair,
2,105,249 lei,
3,85%
Communication,
1,502,000 lei, Fees and taxes,
2,191,000 lei,
2,75%
4,02%
Other expenses,
10,054,348 lei,
18,43%
Energy,
1,537,259 lei,
2,82%
Wages,
26,414,035 lei,
48,40%
Materials,
3,330,668 lei,
6,10%
Exploitation expenses structure
75
FINANCIAL REPORT 2009
The tables below render synthetically the profit and loss account and the balance sheet as of
31.12.2009.
PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT AS OF 31.12.2009 Synthetic display LEI (RON)
31.12.2008
60.896.291
1.Turnover
6.895
2.Variation in stocks
580.905
3.Other operating expenses
5.582.328
4.Expenses with consumables
19.507.953
5.Other operational costs
34.889.282
6.Expenses with staff
5.480.561
7.Gross operational profit
0
8.Depreciation and value adjustment of financial assets value
5.480.561
9.Net operational profit
134.004
10.Financial incomes and adjustment of financial assets value
5.575.740
11.Profit / loss in ordinary activities
12.Tax on profit
1.229.367
4.276.373
13.Profit / loss during the financial year
BALLANCE SHEET AS OF 31.12.2009 Synthetic display
ASSETS
1. Fixed assets
1.1. Intangible fixed assets
1.2. Tanginble fixed assets
1.3. Financial assets
2. Current assets
2.1. Stocks
2.2. Claims
2.3. Cash at bank and in safe
2.4. Debts due during one year
2.5. Debts due in over one year
Total assets
LIABILITIES
3. Capital and reserve
3.1. Subscribed capital
3.2. Reserves
3.3. Reported results
4. Public capital
Total liabilities
76
31.12.2009
55.423.292
43.787
443.082
2.887.506
12.362.574
33.856.144
5.917.773
511.040
5.406.733
191.276
5.598.009
918.670
4.679.339
LEI (RON)
31.12.2008
374.239.516
7.162.790
367.026.205
50.521
18.351.328
6.683.922
1.668.467
9.998.939
- 4.538.375
0
388.052.469
31.12.2009
374.199.468
7.608.628
366.590.543
297.00
16.275.704
6.872.372
1.533.678
12.111.375
- 4.241.721
0
390.475.172
18.305.751
1.618.733
13.932.271
- 2.754.747
350.953.252
369.259.003
20.374.042
1.618.733
15.664.150
3.091.159
352.257.721
372.631.763
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING
CENTRE
EXECUTIVE SCIENTIFIC
DIRECTOR FOR RESEARCH
DEVELOPMENT
AUTOMOBILE COMPARTMENT
HUMAN RESOURCES SERVICE
COOPERATION AND INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS DEPARTMENT
SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL
DIRECTOR GENERAL
STEERING COMMITTEE
MANAGEMENT
COUNCIL
CONSILIUL
DE ADMINISTRATIE
SUBSIDIARIES
INTERNAL FINANCIAL CONTROL
OFFICE
LEGAL AFFAIRS OFFICE
INTERNAL AUDIT OFFICE
LABOUR AND CIVIL PROTECTION
COMPARTMENT
QMS COMPARTMENT
EMERGENCY INTERVENTION UNIT
FOR SIMIN FUNCTIONING
CHIEF ACCOUNTANT I
CHIEF ACCOUNTANT II
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR
ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
BUDGETS OFFICE
CUSTOMERS OFFICE
ORGANIZATION CHART – National Meteorological Administration
LABORATORY OF AGROMETEOROLOGY
EXECUTIVE SCIENTIFIC
DIRECTOR FOR OPERATIONAL
METEOROLOGY
LABORATORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
PHENOMENA FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
LONG-RANGE FORECASTS
LABORATORY
METHODS AND METEOROLOGICAL
NETWORK COORDINATION LABORATORY
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEO
TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND
TECHNICAL SUPPORT
DATABASE DESIGN AND
MANAGEMENT LABORATORY
NUMERICAL MODELLING LABORATORY
CLIMATOLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS AND
AIR POLLUTION OBSERVATORY
REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION SYSTEMS (GIS)
LABORATORY
EDITING, MULTIPLYING AND BOOK
BINDING LABORATORY
TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT AND
ACQUISITION SERVICE
LABORATORY FOR METEOROLOGICAL
DEVICES DEVELOPMENT
METROLOGIC OFFICE
NATIONAL SCHOOL OF METEOROLOGY
REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
BANAT CRISANA
DOBRUDJA
MOLDAVIA
WALAHIA (MUNTENIA)
OLTENIA
TRANSYLVANIA NORTH
TRANSYLVANIA SOUTH
FINANCIAL OFFICE
ACCOUNTANCY OFFICE - CENTRAL
HEADQUARTERS
CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTANCY AND
ECONOMIC ANALYSES OFFICE
PROJECTS ACCOUNTACY OFFICE
ACCOUNTANCY-ASSOCIATING OFFICE

national meteorological administration

Transcription

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