euro-cordex

Status of EURO-CORDEX
and
Plans for EURO-CORDEX 2
Daniela Jacob
and the EURO-CORDEX team
www.euro-cordex.net
EURO-CORDEX community
EURO-CORDEX community
EURO-CORDEX Community
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29 actively contribution groups
Leading institutions in the field of regional climate modeling in Europe
Voluntary effort, contributions are funded by the contributors
Coordination: D. Jacob (CS2 Germany)
EURO-CORDEX Models
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12 different GCMs from CMIP 5 (NorESM1-M, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5,
EC-EARTH, IPSL-CM5A-MR, ACCESS1-3, CanESM2, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M, CISROMk3-6-0, CCSM4)
10 different RCMs: WRF (different configurations), CCLM, ALADIN, REMO, REGCM,
HIRHAM, RACMO, ARPEGE, RCA, PROMES
Cooperation with Empirical Statistical Downscaling (ESD)
47 scenario simulations at high resolution (EUR-11, 12.5 km):
5 planned, 7 running, 35 finished (23 simulations published)
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EURO-CORDEX
EURO-CORDEX Overview
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Region:
~ 27° N – 72° N, ~22° W – 45° E
(Details: http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/index.php/community/domain-eurocordex)
Horizontal resolutions:
EUR-11: 0.11° (12.5 km)
EUR-44: 0.44° (50 km)
Time periods:
Evaluation run (ERA-Interim): 1989 – 2008
Historical runs: 1951 – 2005
Scenario runs: 2006 – 2100
Forcing data: CMIP5
Scenarios:
RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 (focus)
RCP 2.6 (so far: few simulations)
EURO-CORDEX
From GCM to 0.11°
EURO-CORDEX 0.44°
50 km
GCM
~150 km
EURO-CORDEX 0.11°
12.5 km
Representation of orography,
e.g., European Alps
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EURO-CORDEX
From 0.44° to 0.11°
Specific Humidity ~3000m, 20.-24. Dec. 2008
EURO-CORDEX 0.11
EURO-CORDEX 0.44
~64 x computational costs
[CCLM-COSM 0.44° Hindcast (WEGC)]
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[CCLM-COSM 0.11° Hindcast (BTU)]
EURO-CORDEX
From 0.44° to 0.11°
Specific Humidity ~3000m, 20.-24. Dec. 2008
EURO-CORDEX 0.11
EURO-CORDEX 0.44
~64 x computational costs
[CCLM-COSM 0.44° Hindcast (WEGC)]
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[CCLM-COSM 0.11° Hindcast (BTU)]
EURO-CORDEX
EURO-CORDEX joint efforts
1) Evaluation of hindcasts
a) RCM multi-model ensemble evaluation
b) Reference datasets
1) Setup and analysis of projections
a) GCM-RCM matrix
b) Analysis of projections
1) Interface to users
a) Guidelines
b) Data preparation
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EURO-CORDEX
Evaluation of hindcasts
RCM multi-model ensemble evaluation
EO
BS
CORDEX EUR-11
CORDEX EUR-44
“Standard” Evaluation [Kotlarski et al., 2014]
ENSEMBLES max
ENSEMBLES p75
ENSEMBLES median
Added Value of High Resolution (EUR-11)
Simulations [Prein et al. 2014]
ENSEMBLES p25
ENSEMBLES min
Bias of 90th centile
[Vautard et al., 2013]
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EURO-CORDEX
Precipitation Extremes (Q97.5)
Evaluation of hindcasts
RCM multi-model ensemble evaluation
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“Standard evaluation”
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Simulations have skill to represent specific aspects like:
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heat waves
climate classifications
Added value of high resolution (EUR-11 vs. EUR-44)
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Ensemble mean biases comparable to ENSEMBLES(partly smaller
error ranges)
demonstrated for mean and extreme precipitation.
More studies in preparation
EURO-CORDEX
Evaluation of hindcasts
Reference datasets
Regional gridded
evaluation data for
temperature and
precipitation (grid resolution
higher than 12 km)
Most of the data is available for
scientific use
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EURO-CORDEX
Setup and analysis of projections
GCM-RCM matrix
1) Avoid GCMs with very weak performance over Europe
2) Spread of CMIP5 simulations should be sampled
adequately
3) Modeling groups decide independently on the choice of
GCM
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EURO-CORDEX
Setup and analysis of projections
GCM-RCM matrix
GCM performance [UNICAN, ETHZ, UNIGRAZ, …]
Spatial biases, annual cycles, upper air paramter evaluation, multi-parameter model
performace indices, …
[Jury et al., 2013]
[Brands et al., 2013]
[Kotlarski, 2011]
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EURO-CORDEX
Setup and analysis of projections
GCM-RCM matrix
GCM selection [UNIGRAZ, ETHZ]
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7 GCMs
(MPI-ESM, CNRMCM5, and EC-EARTH
in 4 realizations each)
Temperature change
range fully sampled
Extremely wet GCMs
missing
Precipitiation change [%]
Sampling for EUR-11
Temperature change [K]
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EURO-CORDEX
Setup and analysis of projections
Analysis of projections
Precipitation Change
First Analysis of EUR-11
Climate Change Signals
[Jacob et al., 2013]
More studies in preparation
 Climate Types – Integrated Assessment [Belda et al.]
 Mediterranean cyclone simulation [Gaertner et al.]
 Snow Cover Analysis [S. Kotlarski et al.] [C. Teichmann et al.]
 ...
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EURO-CORDEX
Setup and analysis of projections
Analysis of projections
… more studies in preparation
 Extreme events in the context of climate change [Vautard et al.]
 Effect of dynamical downscaling on climate change signals in an ensemble
of COSMO-CLM scenario simulations for Europe [Keuler et al.]
 EURO-CORDEX climate change signals over the Alps [Kotlarski et al.]
 From state to process: Robust climate impacts at +2C and atmospheric
rivers in Euro-CORDEX [Sobolowski et al.]
 Land atmosphere coupling in EURO-CORDEX validation runs [Knist et al.]
 EURO-CORDEX ensemble analysis in comparison to ENSEMBLES
[Halenka et al.]
 Projected changes in the RCP2.6 scenario simulations in comparison to
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario simulations [Teichmann et al.]
 Added value of regional climate modeling over areas characterized by
complex terrain [Torma et al.]
 etc.
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EURO-CORDEX
Interface to users
Guidelines (in preparation)
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Structure of Guidelines for EURO-CORDEX data
users:
General information on the climate system
 Using climate projections
 Interpreting regional climate projections
 Model data formats and structures
 Examples of EURO-CORDEX data use
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EURO-CORDEX
Interface to users
Data Preparation
Definition and analysis of impact relevant indices
and ensemble-based derived products (ongoing,
results partly already available)
 Provision of a bias adjusted EURO-CORDEX
dataset (ongoing)
 Inter-comparison of bias adjustment Methods
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EURO-CORDEX
EURO-CORDEX 2
for pilot regions
explicit cities, coastal, alpine issues
convection
(~2.5 km)
land-use
changes
~12 km
150-year
control
50 km
Fixed
Land-use
Regional
ESM
Holistiv view of
the water cycle
19502100
Chemistry
Time slices
Fixed
Aerosols
Aerosols
CORE
Other
RCP2.6
RCP
scenarios
RCP4.5
and
RCP8.5
ERA-Interim
driving
1989-2008
GCM-driven run
Other GCMs
Ensemble
runs
TIER 1
TIER 2
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EURO-CORDEX
ERA-Interim
driving
1979-2013
ERA40
driving
BigBrother
NCEP
driving
CORDEX
mandatory
EURO-CORDEX 2
European decadal variability and the regional forcing
Very high resolution
Investigating the uncertainty in European climate change
information
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EURO-CORDEX
Thank you for your attention!
Contact:
Daniela Jacob
Climate Service Center 2.0
Fischertwiete 1
20095 Hamburg
[email protected]
www.climate-service-center.de
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EURO-CORDEX