Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus

Transcription

2491
Vol. 5
Indian Journal of Science and Technology
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus real-time observations – a case study over
Tirupati region – a semi-arid tropical site in India
Vanadeep K1*, Sada Siva Murty R2 and Krishnaiah M1
1
Department of Physics, Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India
2
Rashtriya Sanskrita Vidya Peetha, Tirupati 517502, Andhra Pradesh, India
[email protected]*, [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
Panchangam is the traditional Hindu Almanac that has been in practice for 5,000 years. Invaluable meteorological
predictions are enshrined in it. They are generalized over a region, based on astrological phenomena like planet-star
conjunctions, transits, etc. Five components of Panchangam, namely Tithi, Vaaram, Nakshatram, Yogam and
Karanam, along with other terms, have been explained. Astrological conditions favouring scanty and copious rainfall
have been enlisted. General climatic summary of Panchangam months during the period of study (1992-2004) has
been furnished. Panchangam year starts from Chaitram (April) and ends with Phaalgunam (March). Popular ‘Pidaparthi
Panchangam’ was used for this study. To estimate rainfall quantity, an ancient unit ‘Aadhakam’ was employed, which is
equivalent to 1.6 cm of rain gauge. Maximum rainfall on any day of the year, mean annual rainfall, average South-West
and North-East monsoon rainfall, mean monsoonal rainfall, rainfall based on planetary reign, dominant cloud type and
resultant rainfall nature, direction of cloud origin and wind velocity over Tirupati region, which is a semi-arid tropical site
situated in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India, were compared with Panchangam predictions, using data provided by
India Meteorological Department (IMD). Correlation of individual observations with Panchangam predictions, ranged
from 9.7% to 94.4%. Overall, during study period, success rate of Panchangam predictions set against modern
observations was about 57%.
Keywords:Panchangam, Nakshatram, Conjunction, Planetary reign, Meteorological prediction.
Introduction
(i) Theoretical methods
From times immemorial, Indians have been
(ii) Observational methods.
employing phenomena like nature observation, study of
Theoretical methods employ astronomical or
omens and prognostics, examination of winds, analyzing planetary factors and pertain to computation of planetary
the cloud patterns, planetary positions and conjunctions, positions and conjunction of planets and stars (Mishra et
nakshatram (star) influences and other aspects of al., 2002). The observational methods deal with
astrology, for predicting and forecasting the weather. The atmospheric changes, including cloud forms (sky
most important deciding factor in meteorological studies features) and biological and phenological indicators
is the estimation of the quantity of rainfall because (Mishra et al., 2002).
especially in a country like India, nearly 70% of the
The term Vedam has its origin in the root word vid
population relies almost exclusively on agriculture and which means ‘to know’. Hence the Vedas are given the
agricultural production in India solely depends upon the utmost reverence as ‘store houses and treasures of
monsoon rainfall. Hence, accurate and astute predictions knowledge’, as popular English saying goes, "Knowing is
are inevitable for adequate preparations (Sandeep everything". There are six Vedangams which are meant
Acharya, 2011) for farming and these become even more to support, enhance, augment, preserve and protect the
indispensable to avert losses in agro forestry resources Vedas andthe principles enshrined in them. As the word
during times of adverse weather conditions and natural angam stands for ‘organ’ in Sanskrit, these Vedangams
calamities in many regions of the earth (Galacgac & can be declared to be the six limbs of the Vedas. They
Balisacan, 2009).
are listed as follows:
Despite the extensive use of sophisticated advanced 1. Siksha (deals with the study of sounds and syllable
technology including satellites, weather prediction
pronunciations)
models, etc., their success rate is minimal and they often 2. Chandas (deals with innumerable meters associated
fail to place themselves in considerable proximity to the
with Vedic and Sanskrit slokams)
actual occurrence. Eventually, the methods enshrined in 3. Vyakaranam (deals with grammar as well as
ancient texts are being followed till date in some places to
structures of words and sentences)
guesstimate the mysterious trends of rainfall and on the 4. Niruktam (elaborates on the meaning and
whole, of the weather. Weather lore has thus remained
interpretation of intricate words and phrases)
an important form of local forecasting in many areas 5. Jyotisham (deals with the study of the transits,
through centuries (Burghart, 2000).
conjunctions et cetera of celestial bodies like the Sun,
Indigenous methods of weather forecasting in ancient
the Moon, planets, comets and stars as well as their
scriptures can be broadly classified into two categories:
influences on the mankind and on the earth as a
Research article
Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
“Panchangam vs real-time observation”
http://www.indjst.org
Vanadeep et al.
Indian J.Sci.Technol.
2492
Vol. 5
whole. Based on these predictions, auspicious times
for the performance of various rituals are determined)
6. Kalpam (deals with various sacrifices, ceremonies and
rituals (from birth to death), associated with day-to-day
life)
The classical Hindu astrological almanac known as
Panchangam, prepared for public use from Vedanga
Jyotishyam period (1,400 BC – 1,300 BC) (Sivaprakasam
& Kanakasabai, 2009) stands out as the best
exemplification for ancient traditional texts that employ
theoretical methods. The book published yearly gives
information on daily basis and extensively used by the
astrologers for making astrological calculations and the
farmers to start the farming activity based on the
prediction of rainfall (Bharadwaj Dinesh, 2004). More
significantly, the generation of hydro-electric power in
India is entirely at the mercy of monsoon rainfall.
Kanani and Pastakia Astad (1999) opined that there
was a need to identify and test old literature and oral
traditions across different climatic zones. Comparative
studies were undertaken by correlating the Panchangam
predictions with the actual rainfall recorded by IMD (Misra
et al., 2002). Nakshatram (Star) also has considerable
influence on the amount of rainfall (De et al., 2004).
Rain forecasting based on Panchangam or Hindu
Almanac is a common practice among farmers (Ravi
Shankar et al, 2008).However, it has been a prevalent
notion that local forecasting combines empirical
observations and spiritual insights that draw from a
variety of religious traditions (Roncoli et al., 2001).
Hence, the need of the hour is to integrate the traditional
and scientific weather forecast systems to develop a
comprehensively decisive mechanism for rainfall
prediction in the coming years.
In the present study, the traditional weather
predictions of the Panchangam for a period of 12 years,
from 1992-2004 were compared and correlated with the
actual recorded values over Tirupati region, a worldrenowned pilgrimage centre in India.
Materials and methods
Significance of the number 12
The day is composed of 24 hours, usually divided into
two halves of 12 hours each, i.e., forenoon and afternoon.
The Sun’s transit through the twelve zodiac constellations
constitute a solar year of 12 months (One constellation
per month). The contemporary Gregorian calendar also
has 12 months.
The number 12 has a great prominence in Indian
heritage. A period of 12 years is called a “Pushkaram” in
Sanskrit. Many great world-renowned festivities like
Kumbha Mela of Allahabad, etc. are held once in every
12 years. Special Pushkaram celebrations for rivers like
Ganga,
Yamuna,
Krishna,
Kaveri,
Godavari,
Tungabhadra, et cetera are organized by the respective
state governments of India with great pageantry and
grandeur. Moreover, the first year of study 1992 marks
the year of the pious Pushkaram celebrations of the
Research article
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ISSN: 0974- 6846
perennial Krishna river of Andhra Pradesh. The period of
study was from 1992 to 2004, for a period of 12 years.
The Solar Cycle in the Sun has a duration of 11-12
years approximately wherein the Sun undergoes
significant changes in temperature, sunspots, emission of
solar flares and its magnetic field, where the north and
the south poles of the Sun are reversed and interchanged
(This is anticipated in mid-2012 as forecasted by the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA)
and others.
Right from the Vedic period, the Sun was attributed
with twelve names and forms, one for every month. They
are called Dwaadasa Aadityas [Dwaadasa means
‘Twelve’ in Sanskrit and the word ‘Aaditya’ stands for the
‘Sun’, who is believed to be the Son of Aditi, the Mother of
Gods (Devatas)] which are listed in Table 1.
Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse through one
Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s time
perspective) and by the time it traverses through all the
12 constellations and completes one sidereal revolution
around the Sun, it exhausts 12 Earth Years. The (Earth)
Year calculated on the basis of Jupiter’s revolution is
called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or Barhaspatya year”. Hence,
five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun is the basis for
constituting the 60- (Earth) year cycle which is in vogue in
the traditional Panchangams.
Besides, in Hindu Mythology and numerology, Lord
Vishnu, The Sustainer among the Hindu Trinity, is said to
be the Presiding Deity of this number and hence, this is
revered as one of the most pious and auspicious
numbers in India.
Fig.1. Map of India showing the place of study, Tirupati
(marked as a red point) situated in the State of Andhra
Pradesh (shaded in orange)
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It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM in the
afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our
perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is
called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam
(Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this
particular time is considered to be always auspicious for
marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also
believed to bring about victories, by Hindus.
Place of study: Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh, India
Tirupati is the abode of the richest shrine in the world
that of Lord Venkateswara, situated in Chittoor district of
Andhra Pradesh at an average altitude of 182.9 meters
above sea level at 13.39oN latitude and 79.250E
longitude, as in Fig.1. This is a semi-arid region with
prevalent continental type of climate. This temple city is
an internationally renowned, spiritual, educational and a
buzzing commercial centre surrounded by industrial and
agricultural environs.
Broadly, in a year, Tirupati has three distinct seasons:
Summer (March-May), Monsoon (July-September), and
winter (November-January). February, June and October
months are considered to be transition periods with
relatively stable weather conditions with sunny days.
Geographically, since Tirupati is in proximity to the
coastal regions of Nellore and Chennai, this region
receives prominent amounts of rainfall whenever there
are cyclonic formations in the Bay of Bengal, off the coast
of Chennai and coastal Nellore. Due to this, along with
the South-West monsoon, the North-East monsoon
(October-December) also brings copious rains to this
region.
Table 1. The twelve Adityas and their ruling periods
The 12 Adityas
Ruling Month
Lunar Month
1
Dhaata
March – April
Chaitram
2
Aryama
April – May
Vaisakham
3
4
5
6
7
Mitra
Varuna
Indra
Vivasvan
Tvashtha
May – June
June – July
July – August
Aug – Sept
Sept – Oct
Jyeshtham
Ashadham
Sravanam
Bhadrapadam
Aswayujam
8
Vishnu
Oct – Nov
Karthikam
9
Amshuman
Nov – Dec
Margasirsham
10
11
Bhaga
Pusha
Dec – Jan
Jan – Feb
Pushyam
Maagham
12
Parjana
Feb – March
Phalgunam
Panchangam, the Hindu almanac
When we consider the etymology of the word
‘Panchangam’, the Sanskrit word means ‘the one which
consists of five organs/limbs’ (Pancha means ‘five’ and
anga stands for ‘organ or limb’). Panchangam deals with
the five attributes of Hindu calendar. They are:
1. Tithi (Lunar Day)
2. Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day)
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(Apr 2012)
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3. Nakshatram (Star/Star Cluster in which moon is
placed/aligned at that particular time)
4. Yogam (Auspiciousness)
5. Karanam (half a Tithi)
Tithi (Lunar Day)
A tithi is an exact lunar day, which is approximately
one-thirtieth of the time it takes the moon to orbit the
earth. Mathematically, each tithi represents a 12-degree
longitudinal separation between the sun and the moon. A
tithi may vary in length from day to day. There are 15
tithis
in
each
fortnight.
Their
names
are:
Padyami/Prathama,
Vidiya/Dvitiya,
Tadiya/Tritiya,
Chaviti/Chaturthi, Panchami, Shasthi, Saptami, Ashtami,
Navami, Dasami, Ekadasi, Dvadasi, Trayodasi,
Chaturdasi and Amavasya/Purnima. Purnima, full-moon
day, is the fifteenth tithi of the bright fortnight, and
Amavasya, new-moon day, is the fifteenth tithi of the dark
fortnight. (In many Panchangams, the new moon is
numbered as the thirtieth tithi).
Table 2. Solar days with their English counterparts and ruling
planets
English
Ruling Planet
Solar Day (Vaaram)
Counterpart
(King)
Bhaanu ( Ravi) vaaram
Sunday
Sun
Indu (Soma) vaaram
Monday
Moon
Mangala (Bhouma)
Tuesday
Mars
vaaram
Budha (Soumya)
Wednesday
Mercury
vaaram
Guru (Brihaspati)
Thursday
Jupiter
vaaram
Sukra vaaram
Friday
Venus
Shani vaaram
Saturday
Saturn
Vaaram or Vaasaram (Solar Day)
The traditional Hindu calendar also recognizes the
solar day,Vaaram or Vaasaram. The vaasaram begins
with sunrise (at about 6:00 AM) and ends with sunrise the
next day, based on the rotation of the earth on its axis.
Each solar day is divided into 24 horas (hours). Horas are
assigned to the planets in their descending sidereal
period. There are seven days in the week, and each is
most strongly influenced by a particular planet which is
tabulated in Table 2.
Nakshatram (Star)
In Hindu astrology, the term ‘nakshatram’ refers to 27
particular stars/star-clusters, as listed in Table 3, which lie
along the ecliptic .The ecliptic is the apparent yearly path
of the Sun as seen from the earth. ‘Na’ in Sanskrit stands
for ‘negation (not)’ and ‘Kshatam’ means ‘destructible’.
Hence Nakshatram means an ‘indestructible entity’. The
root word ‘tra’ in Sanskrit stands for ‘protection’. On the
consummate, Nakshatram therefore signifies ‘something
that is itself indestructible and protects’ or, in other words,
‘that which safeguards everything from being destroyed
or perished’. From these, we can effortlessly presume
that, by providing this particular nomenclature of
Nakshatram to a star, our ancestral think-tank was well
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Table 3. Nakshatrams and their modern counterparts
Nakshatram Name in
Star Name in Modern
Ancient Astrology
Astronomy
1 Ashwini
Beta Arietis
2 Bharani
41 Arietis
3 Krittika
Alcyone-2-Pleiades
4 Rohini
Aldebaran
5 Mrigasira
Lambda Orionis
6 Ardra
Betelguese 7
7 Punarvasu
Pollux 11
8 Pushyami
Delta Cancri
9 Aslesha
Epsilon Hydrae
10 Makha
Alpha Leonis
11 Purva Phalguni
Delta Leonis
12 Uttara Phalguni
Beta Leonis
13 Hasta
Delta Corvi
14 Chitra
Spica 16
15 Swati
Arcturus 17
16 Visakha
Alpha-2-Libra
17 Anuradha
Delta Scorpionis
18 Jyeshtha
Alpha Scorpionis
19 Mula
Lambda Scorpionis
20 Purvashadha
Delta Sagittari
21 Uttarashadha
Sigma Sagittari
22 Sravana
Alpha Aquibe
23 Dhanishtha
Alpha Delphia
24 Shatabhishak
Lambda Aqurii
Purva Proshtapada
25
Alpha Pegasi
(Purvabhaadra)
Uttara Proshtapada
26
Gamma Pegasi
(Uttaraabhaadra)
27 Revathi
Zeta Piscium
versed with the life-sustaining nature of a star (e.g., the
Sun) from eons of time. This property of a star was
realized by the western astronomers very recently.
When a planet comes into alignment with one of the
stars from the view of an individual on the earth, the rays
of the stars combine with those of the planet to influence
Table 4. Seven Naadis and their associated effect on
weather
Saptaa (Seven) Naadis
Effect on weather
Bright Sunshine with no
1 Chanda/Vaata Naadi
rainfall;Windy
Vaayu/Athivaata
Sunshine and Cold Wind
2
Naadi
with normal rainfall
Strong hot Winds
Vanhi/Agni/Dahana
3
(Westerlies) with increase
Naadi
in temperature
4 Soumya Naadi
Normal Rainfall
5 Neera Naadi
Very good rainfall
6 Jala Naadi
Abundant Rainfall
Heavy to very heavy and
7 Amrita Naadi
copious rainfall, causing
floods
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the earth. All of the planets, one after another, pass
through the ecliptic and align with each of the 27
nakshatrams. The most important “nakshatram” (star/star
cluster) is the one with which the moon is currently
aligned, as the moon’s influence is said to be the most
influential on daily life on Earth.
All the nakshatrams given in Hindu calendar are for
the Moon. This means that the nakshatram currently in
effect is the one that the Moon has “conjoined.” (Similarly,
the current raasi, the Zodiac sign/Constellation, is the one
that the moon has conjoined), (Satguru Sivaya
Subramuniyaswami, 1997). The Hindu mythological
legend has it that these 27 stars are the wives of the
Moon, who is said to have exceptional affinity towards
Rohini among them. Hence, the conjunction of Moon with
Rohini star has been attributed a distinctive prominence
in astrology and is believed to have momentous impact
on weather phenomena.
Based on the effects and results produced by these
27 stars on the Earth and Mankind, the stars are
classified into various categories by ancient seers:
1. Light: Ashwini, Pushya and Hasta
2. Soft: Mrigasira, Chitra, Anuradha and Revathi
3. Fixed: Rohini, Uttara Phalguni, Uttarashadha and
Uttara Proshtapada (Uttaraabhaadra)
4. Moveable: Punarvasu, Swati, Sravana, Dhanishtha
and Shatabhishak
5. Sharp: Ardra, Aslesha, Jyeshtha and Mula
6. Dreadful: Bharani, Makha, Purva Phalguni,
Purvashadha
and
Purva
Proshtapada
(Purvaabhaadra)
7. Mixed: Krittika and Visakha
These Nakshatrams are also called ‘Lunar Mansions
or houses or stations’ with respect to the moon’s
conjunction with them. In general, they are called by the
name ‘Asterisms’.
(Further, it is to be noted that, to this group of 27
nakshatrams, one more nakshatram namely, Abhijit is
sometimes added towards the end of Uttarashadha
nakshatram. Abhijit is situated in the region of Vega star
in the constellation of Lyra. Since this star is not
encountered on the path of the Sun (Solar Ecliptic) as all
the other 27 nakshatrams are, this can be ignored while
considering the main nakshatrams in astrology and
Panchangam. It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM
in the afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our
perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is
called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam
(Auspicious time) is to be identified during the day, this
particular time is considered to be always auspicious for
marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also
believed to bring about victories, by Hindus).
Karanam
In Sanskrit, a ‘Karanam’ refers to ‘actions that could
be executed at that précise point of time’. An overview of
the karanams in the panchangam would prefigure the
quality of time to perform a given activity at that instance
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and the ensuing consequences accrued from them. A
karanam is half of a tithi or lunar day. There are two
karanams in a single tithi. The Karanam is calculated to
be 6 degrees of longitudinal separation between the Sun
and the Moon. Here, one may recall that a Tithi is
calculated to be 12 degrees of longitudinal separation
between the sun and the moon. The names of the 11
karanams that rotate through the 30 tithis of a lunar
month are: Bhava, Balava, Kaulava, Taitila, Gara, Vanij,
Visti, Sakuni, Chatuspada, Naga and Kimtughna.
Yogam
In Sanskrit, Yogam means a ‘union’. So, it is a
planetary configuration, union or relationship. The yogam
is a factor used by astrologers for determining the
auspiciousness of the day. This is an angle of the sun
and the moon with the earth being the point of the
angle. Yogam is the period during which the combined
longitudinal motion of the Sun and the Moon amounts to
130 201 (13 degrees and 20 minutes). Hence, this truly
represents the Luni-Solar aspect of the Panchangam.
Like the nakshatrams, there are 27 yogas. They are:
Vishakambha, Priti, Ayushman, Saubhagya, Sobhana,
Atiganda, Sukarma, Dhriti, Sula, Ganda, Vriddhi, Dhruva,
Vyaghat, Harshana, Vajra, Siddhi, Vyatipatha, Variyan,
Parigha, Siva, Siddha, Sadhya, Subha, Sukla, Brahma,
Indra and Vaidhriti.
From these, we can infer that Tithi, Yogam and
Karanam are all a measure of the relationship between
the Sun and the Moon. In Hindu Astrology, both the Sun
and the Moon have been perceived to cast an immense
influence on daily life and thus, their motions and
conjunctions are precisely calculated.
Raasi (Moon/Sun Sign)
Raasi in Sanskrit means a ‘grouping or
conglomeration’. This is the reason why a constellation is
called a raasi in astrology. It is the zodiac sign through
which the moon currently passes through. This is denoted
by the degree (angle) of the moon sign as perceived at
06:00 AM in the morning. It is a known fact that moon
travels 12o per day. The 12 raasis are:
1. Mesha (Aries);
2. Vrshabha (Taurus)
3. Mithuna (Gemini)
4. Karkataka (Cancer)
5. Simha (Leo)
6. Kanya (Virgo)
7. Thula (Libra)
8. Vrischika (Scorpio)
9. Dhanush (Sagittarius)
10. Makara (Capricorn)
11. Kumbha (Aquarius)
12. Meena (Pisces)
The Sun takes about one month to traverse through
each of the twelve zodiac signs mentioned above, which
constitute the 12 months of a solar year. Likewise, there
are 12 lunar months or maasams based on the
nakshatram (star/star cluster) with which moon is
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conjoined on the day of Purnima or Full moon day (as
perceived by an observer on the earth). They are:
1. Chaitram (March-April)
2. Vaisaakham (April- May)
3. Jyeshtham (May-June)
4. Aashaadham(June-July)
5. Sraavanam (July- August)
6. Bhaadrapadam (August-September)
7. Aaswayujam (September-October)
8. Kaarthikam(October-November)
9. Maargaseersham (November-December)
10. Pousham (December-January)
11. Maagham (January-February)
12. Phaalgunam (February-March)
The actual durations of the months mentioned above
may slightly vary depending upon the transit time of the
lunar motion through the Nakshatrams (Stars).
The nomenclature ‘Monsoon’ has been derived from
the Arabic word ‘Mausam’ which has its root in the
Sanskrit term ‘Maasam’.
Paksham (Fortnight)
The lunar month is the duration of one revolution of
the moon around the earth. This period is divided into two
pakshams (fortnights) as mentioned below. In Sanskrit,
paksham means ‘partial’.
1. Bright Fortnight (Shukla Paksham): The period of
waxing of moon till Full Moon (Purnima)
2. Dark Fortnight (Krishna Paksham): The period of
waning of moon till New Moon (Amavasya)
Ayanam
Each year is divided into two halves, each known as
Ayanam. It is the six month period-Uttarayanam and
Dakshinayanam. Ayanam in Sanskrit stands for ‘path’.
Uttarayanam begins on the day of the winter solstice,
normally December 21, when the sun begins its apparent
northward journey (Uttaram in Sanskrit means ‘North’).
Dakshinayanam begins on the first day of the summer
solstice, normally June 21, marking Sun’s southward
movement (Dakshinam means ‘South’ in Sanskrit). The
two days commencing the two ayanams are considered
extremely auspicious by Hindus.
Samvatsaram (Year)
According to the traditional Hindu Almanac
(Panchangam), there are 60 years in all. This is based on
the time Jupiter takes to complete 5 revolutions around
the Sun. Jupiter travels through the 12 Zodiac
constellations (Raasis) to complete one sidereal
revolution around the Sun. The duration of this one
sidereal revolution (one year) of Jupiter is equivalent to
the time taken by the earth to complete 12 sidereal
revolutions, i.e.
One Jupiter Year = Twelve Earth Years
Five Jupiter Years = Sixty Earth Years
It means that Jupiter takes one Earth Year to traverse
through one Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s
time perspective) and by the time it traverses through all
the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal
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revolution around the Sun, it would have exhausted 12
Earth Years. The (Earth) Year calculated on the basis of
Jupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or
Barhaspatya year” and this system is known as
“Barhaspatya varsha or Jovian (Jupiter) Year system”.
Hence, five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun
constitute the 60-year cycle which is in vogue in the
traditional panchangams, the list of which is given as
follows: Prabhava, Vibhava, Sukla, Pramoda, Prajapati,
Angirasa, Srimukha, Bhava, Yuva, Dhatri, Isvara,
Bahudhanya, Pramathi, Vikrama, Vrisha, Chitrabhanu,
Subhanu, Tarana, Parthiva, Vyaya, Sarvajit, Sarvadharin,
Virodhi Vikrita, Khara, Nandana, Vijaya, Jaya, Manmatha,
Durmukha, Hemalamba, Vilamba, Vikarin, Sarvari, Plava,
Subhakrit, Sobhana, Krodhin, Visvavasu, Parabhava,
Palavanga, Kilaka, Sowmya, Sadharana, Virodhakrit,
Paridhavi, Pramadin, Ananda, Rakshasa, Anala (or Nala),
Pingala, Kalayukta, Siddharthi, Raudra, Durmati,
Dundubhi, Rudhirodgari, Raktaksha, Krodhana and
Akshaya (Equated to earth years in practice).
Hence, it is conventional in India to celebrate the
occasion of the completion of 60 years of age/life by a
man, by the name “Shasthyabda Poorthi” (meaning
‘Completion of 60 years’).
Naadi
For predicting the monsoon and its subsequent
effects on weather, almost all panchangams consider
three different Naadi Siddhantams (Capsular theories).
These are known as ‘Naadi Chakras’. The word
‘Chakram’ in Sanskrit signifies a cycle. They are:
1. Dwi (Two) Naadi Chakras
2. Tri (Three) Naadi Chakras
3. Sapta (Seven) Naadi Chakras
Of these three, Sapta Naadi chakras are the most
significant and are said to have a pronounced influence
on weather and especially rainfall. Table 4 lists all the
seven Naadis and their respective effects on weather
conditions. From the Panchangam, depending on the
dominant Naadi Sanchaaram (Movement) of the
nakshatrams (stars) and grahas (Planets), during the
respective month, one can estimate the likely weather
conditions during that particular month.
(Generally, ‘Naadi’ in Physiology means a ‘nerve
center’ or ‘neural junction’. Even our Pulse is also
considered to be a naadi. According to Spiritual Science
and Metaphysics, there are about 72,000 such naadis in
our human body. They are said to be the sustainers of
Life Energy (Prana Sakti) in various forms. Most of the
ancient forms of martial arts in ‘The Orient’ and elsewhere
employ certain techniques that tactically target the nerve
centers (naadis) of the opponent’s body. In Astrology,
there is a system called ‘naadi jyotishyam’, wherein, even
the minutest details of the past and future of a person’s
life are revealed with great degree of accuracy, which can
be seen in Vaideeswaran Koyil in Tamilnadu).
In India, several states use a solar-year calendar
while others use the lunar-year calendar. Lunar calendar
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is used for determining the dates of religious festivals and
for selecting auspicious times for beginning many socioreligious activities. Vedic Calendar uses both the solar
month and the lunar month and would be known as a
“Luni-Solar Calendar”. For business purposes and
modern convenience, we use the Gregorian year which
follows neither a solar month system nor a lunar month
system (Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami, 1997).
Rutu (Season)
Table 5.The six Rutus (Seasons) in India
Rutua (Season)
Season
Months
1
2
Vasanta
Greeshma
Varsha /
Pravrut
Spring
Summer
4
Sarath
Autumn
5
Hemantha
Winter
6
Sisira
Trees shed their
leaves and Winter
is at its peak
3
March to April
May to June
July to
September
September to
November
November to
January
Rainy Season
January to
March
Traditionally, there are six seasons (Rutus) in India,
each spanning over a period of about two months. The
six seasons in India are listed in Table 5.The word ‘rutu’ is
derived from the Vedic Sanskrit word ‘Rta’ which means
‘order’ or ‘course of things’. Hence, this designates a fixed
or an appointed time, particularly the proper time for
sacrificial rituals (Yagnyam).
The panchangam used for the present study
In Andhra Pradesh also, we use Panchangams of
dominant lunar dependence with a ‘luni-solar’ nature.
‘Ama-anta’ month system (Ama- Amavasya (New Moon
Day); Anta- ‘end’) is followed in these Panchangams.
Each month ends with Amavasya. Another aspect of the
lunar calendar is that a lunar year contains about 336
days as it takes nearly 27-28 days for the Moon to trace
its orbit around the earth (28 days per one lunar month x
12 months = 336 days per one lunar year). This is 30
days i.e., exactly one month shorter than the solar year
which has 365.25 days. So, just as every 4th year in a
solar calendar must add an extra day (leap year) to make
up for the discrepancy in the earth’s orbit around the Sun,
Similarly, for every 30 months or so, the lunar calendar
must add an extra month to compensate for this deficit.
This leap month is known as Adhika Maasam (The
Additional Month) in Panchangam terminology. It has
been a convention to insert this Adhika Maasam after the
months of Aashadham, Sraavanam, Bhaadrapadam and
Aaswayujam, as the case may be. For instance, if the
month is to be added after Aaswayuja month in a
particular year, then, the original Aaswayuja month will be
given the nomenclature ‘Nija Aaswayujam’ and the
additional month, Adhika Aaswayujam. Thus, every
second or third lunar year contains 13 months which
contributes considerably to the minimization of
dissimilarities between the solar and the lunar years,
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Table 6. King, minister and lord of clouds during the years in deliberation
Year Name in
Christian
Meghadhipathi
King
Minister
Panchangam
Era
(Lord of Clouds)
1
Angirasa
1992-1993 Saturn
Moon
Sun
2
Srimukha
1993-1994 Mercury
Mars
Mars
3
Bhava
1994-1995 Moon
Jupiter
Mercury
4
Yuva
1995-1996 Saturn
Venus
Jupiter
5
Dhatru
1996-1997 Mercury
Saturn
Venus
6
Iswara
1997-1998 Mars
Sun
Sun
7
Bahudhanya
1998-1999 Saturn
Mars
Moon
8
Pramathi
1999-2000 Jupiter
Mercury Mars
9
Vikrama
2000-2001 Mercury
Jupiter
Mercury
10 Vrisha
2001-2002 Moon
Venus
Venus
11 Chitrabhanu
2002-2003 Saturn
Sun
Saturn
12 Swa(Su)bhanu 2003-2004 Mercury
Moon
Sun
thus, transforming the calendar into the one of a ‘LuniSolar’ nature. The panchangam used for the present
study was prepared by the famous Pidaparthi house,
popularly known as “Pidaparthi Panchangam”. Erstwhile,
this was released by the well-known daily of Andhra
Pradesh ‘Andhra Patrika’ that came to be known as
“Andhra Patrika Panchangam”. This was prepared as per
the ‘Indian Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac’, the
guidelines for which were laid down by the ‘Calendar
Reform Committee’ constituted by Government of India.
Moreover, this very Pidaparthi Panchangam has been
recognized and accepted by Government of India as a
Phalguna
Krishna
Paksha
(Bahula)
Amavasya, which normally occurs during the
month of March.
For every year, there will be a King,
Minister, Senadhipathi (Commander-in-chief
of forces/army), Sasyadhipathi (Lord of
Agriculture,
Crops
and
Greenery),
Dhanyadhipathi (Lord of food grains),
Arghadhipathi
(Lord
of
Water),
Meghadhipathi (Lord of Clouds and Rainfall),
et cetera. Each of the above rulers for that
particular year will be determined from the
seven ruling planets Sun, Moon, Mars,
Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and Mercury. King,
Minister and Meghadhipathi of all the years
of period of study are tabulated in Table 6.
Cloud categories in panchangam
Panchangam also predicts the details of the
predominant cloud types likely to occur during the year.
During the study period (1992-2004), Pushkaram,
Samvartakam, Avartakam, Tamo, Vaayu, Varuna,
Neelam, Kaalam and Dronam clouds were predicted to
be prevalent. As per the ancient classification, the cloud
types and the probable trend of rainfall they are expected
to cause are given in Table 7. It is quite fascinating to
note that the current classification of clouds into four
categories, interpreted based on their altitude in
atmosphere, namely Cirro, Alto, Strato and Cumuli,
Table 7. Basic cloud types and rainfall trends based on ancient knowledge,
Note: Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. In Hindu mythology, Dronacharya (the mentor of Kauravas and Pandavas in the
Mahabharata) and Sage Agasthya are called Khumbha-Sambhavas or Drona Sambhavas as they are said to be born from
pots(cloning-test tube babies)). The very name ‘Dronacharya’ itself tells the story. Dronam clouds resemble the shape of a pot
which coincides with the description of the modern Cumulonimbus clouds with the imposing anvil at their top and they are said to
cause copious rains similar to the bountiful flow of water poured down from a pot
Cloud Type
Resultant Rainfall Trend
1
2
3
4
Avartakam (May be Alto form Clouds like Altostratus and Altocumulus)
Samvartakam (May be Strato form clouds like Stratus, Stratocumulus and
Nimbostratus)
Pushkaram (May be Cirro form clouds like Cirrus, Cirrostratus and
Cirrocumulus or even Fair Weather Cumulus)
Dronam (May be Cumuliform Clouds like Cumulus and Cumulonimbus)
standard reference almanac.
Panchangams for a year are usually prepared before
the commencement of the intended year, during the
previous year itself. Hence, the main aim of this study is
to compare and correlate the meteorological predictions
of the traditional Panchangam with the actual recorded
values over the Tirupatiregion, using the data provided by
the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
This Panchangam is modeled on the Telugu system
of New Year which starts from the tithi Chaitra Shukla
Padyami, which usually falls in the month of April and is
known by the name Ugadi. This is believed to be the time
when Lord Brahma, the Creator among The Hindu Trinity,
started the conception of this Universe. This is a principal
festivity in Andhra Pradesh. The year ends with the tithi
Research article
Scattered Rainfall in certain places
Moderate to good and uniform showers across
various locations
Low amounts of Precipitation
Abundant Rainfall is recorded all over the region
perfectly suits the four major ancient cloud types
envisioned in the Panchangam, namely, Pushkaram,
Avartakam, Samvartakam and Dronam.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Table 8. Ruling planets (Kings) and their influence on the
annual rainfall of that particular year
Ruling planet (King)
Nature of rainfall
Ravi/Surya (Sun)
Moderate
Kuja/Angaraka (Mars)
Scanty
Budha (Mercury)
Good (Windy Weather)
Guru/Brihaspati
Satisfactory
(Jupiter)
Shukra/Bhargava
Heavy
(Venus)
Very Scanty (With Strong
Shani/Manda (Saturn)
Winds)
Chandra/Soma (Moon) Very Heavy
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Our ancestors have also made an attempt to foretell
the nature of rainfall based on the ruling planet (King) of
that particular year which is tabulated in Table 8.
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
19992000
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(Apr 2012)
Dronam and found this conversion factor to be 6.4 cm
(Balkundi, 1999).
Hence, 1 Aadhakam= 1.6 cm
Table 9. Panchangam predictions of some weather phenomena during the study period.
Parts of Rainfall
Direction of
Cloud Type
Type of Rainfall
Cloud Origin
In Sea
On Hills
Pushkaram
Less Rain
North-East
9
5
Less Rain with excess of
Samvartakam
North
7
10
wind
Avartakam
Less Rain
North
7
10
Tamo
Scattered Rainfall
West
9
5
Lack of Rain due to Windy
Vaayu
North-West
7
10
Weather
Varunam
Heavy Rainfall
South-West
10
7
Neelam
Heavy Rains
South-East
9
5
Kaalam
2000-01
Dronam
2001-02
Pushkaram
2002-03
Samvartakam
2003-04
Avartakam
Low Rainfall
Incessant and Consistent
Rainfall
Less Rain
Weather remains WindyLess Rain
Less Rain
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On Land
7
4
4
7
4
4
7
South
8
9
4
East
7
10
4
North-East
7
10
4
North
9
5
7
North
7
10
4
Note: Meanings of Cloud Nomenclatures in Sanskrit:
a) Pushkaram: 1. A blue lotus 2. The edge of an elephant’s trunk 3. Sky 4. Water 5. The son of Varuna (The Rain-God)
b) Samvartakam: 1. The name of the plough of Lord Balarama (Lord Krishna’s elder brother in the Hindu Mythology, who always holds
plough in his hands, which is his principle weapon) 2. A mythological mare
c) Avartakam: 1. that which recurs itself again and again 2. A cyclonic or whirlpool-like formation 3. That which is bent, curved and
retracted
d) Dronam: a pot
e) Tamo: 1. Darkness 2. Laziness
f) Vaayu: (that which generates and propels) Wind
g) Varunam: (of or related to) Varuna, The Rain-God
h) Neelam: 1. the color black 2. A hill 3. The name of a “Nidhi” (treasure)
i) Kaalam: 1. Thick black in colour 2. Time 3. Lord Yama (The Death-God) Generally, ‘kaala’ clouds originate in the southern direction for
which Lord Yama is believed to be the ruler
As per the Panchangam, when Sun is the King, it
results in poor crop yield. Under the rule of Mars, there is
extensive damage to crops. When Mercury happens to
reign over the year, there will be plenty of harvest. Good
harvest can be expected during the period of Jupiter’s
kingship. There is every chance of variety of food grains
being harvested during the rule of Venus. Saturn’s tenure
on the throne accounts for a poor yield. Moon is the
benefactor of crops with copious rains that consequently
results in a very good harvest. This system of determining
the nature of rainfall was believed to be first popularized
by Sage Parasara in his famous treatise ‘Krishi Parasara’.
Measurement of rainfall
The measurement of quantity of rainfall in the present
Panchangam is given in terms of an ancient traditional
unit Aadhakam. It was found that one Aadhakam equals
in weight to 7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir dupois) (Tripathi,
1969). 1 Aadhakam equals to7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir
dupois). Balkundi, a meteorologist, had found that one
Aadhakam equals to 1.6 cm in modern measurements
2
(when a standard rain gauge of area 200 cm is used)
and four such Aadhakams equal in quantity to one
Research article
Therefore, 1 Dronam = 4 Aadhakams= 1.6 x 4 = 6.4 cm
In the Panchangam, the dimensions of an Aadhakam
of rainfall have been provided and hold good over a
standard area of up to 100 yojanams in height and 60
yojanams in width. One Yojanam equals to 8 Mile or 13
Km. approximately (Richard Thompson, 1997).
In the Present Panchangam, the range of rainfall has
been given in Deva Maanam calculation (The
mensuration standards of Gods. In Sanskrit, the word
‘Deva’ means ‘Gods’’ and the term ‘Maanam’ refers to
‘Measurement’) in yojanams as specified above, which is
too huge and unviable to deal with practically. Hence, a
localized term ‘Kuncham’ has been employed in the
present Panchangam. One Kuncham is considered to be
equal to 484 square yards. This is used extensively in
coastal Andhra Pradesh in land transactions.
One Kuncham = 484 Square yards
Ten Kunchams = 4840 Square Yards = One Acre
However, in this Panchangam, Kuncham has been
used as an equivalent measure to Aadhakam in
volumetric mensuration. Here, it has been envisioned as
a vessel with a capacity to accommodate the volume of
rain water which measures the same as 1.6 cm or 16 mm
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of rain water collected in a modern rain gauge of area 200
2
cm .
According to Sage Parasara, an Aadhakamis the
capacity of a circular vessel whose diameter is 20
Angulams and depth is8 Angulams. Generally, one
Angulam is considered to be almost equal to 1 inch.
During some instances, 1 Angulam has been treated to
th
be 3/4 of an inch and even sometimes 1-3/8inch. Hence,
here,
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parameters during the period of 12 years considered for
the study.
Panchangam also enshrines certain astrological
symptoms and conditions including planet-planet
conjunctions,
planet-star
concurrences,
planetary
alignments, transit paths, etc., which are supposed to
foist their impact on the trend of rainfall during that
particular month and also year, as a whole. An attempt
has been made here to enlist these astrological
Table 10.List of Kaarti Periods with Respective Rainfall Conditions
Starts towards-
Rainfall
1
Bharani Kaarti
The end of the last week of April
Chances of Good Rainfall
2
Kruttika Kaarti
The end of the second week of May
3
Rohini Kaarti
The end of the fourth week of May
4
Mrigasira Kaarti
The beginning of second week of June
Low
Normal; Monsoon sets in immediately after
the completion of this Rohini Kaarti Period.
Low to Good
5
Ardra Kaarti
Punarvasu
Kaarti
Pushyami Kaarti
The beginning of fourth week of June
Good to Very Good
The end of first week of July
Almost No Rainfall
The end of the third week of July
Normal
The middle of the first week of August
The middle of the third week of August
Good
Low Rainfall with dense clouds
The end of August and beginning of September
Low Rainfall with dense clouds
The end of second week of September
Normal
12
Aslesha Kaarti
Makha Kaarti
Purvashadha
(Pubba/Purva)
Kaarti
Uttarashadha
(Uttara) Kaarti
Hasta Kaarti
The end of September
Normal
13
14
15
Chitra Kaarti
Swati Kaarti
Visakha Kaarti
The middle of second week of October
The middle of the fourth week of October
The end of the first week of November
Good
Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind
Low Rainfall accompanied by Wind
16
Anuradha Kaarti
The end of third week of November
17
Jyeshtha Kaarti
The middle of the first week of December
18
Mula Kaarti
The beginning of the third week of December
Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind
Low to Normal Rainfall accompanied by
Wind
Normal to Heavy Rainfall accompanied by
Wind
6
7
8
9
10
11
One Kuncham of rainfall = One Aadhakam of rainfall =
1.6 cm of rain water
Four Kunchams of rainfall = Four Aadhakams of rainfall =
One Dronam Rain = 6.4 cm of rain water
Dronam in Sanskrit means ‘a pot’. Here, it represents
a pot or a similar vessel with a capacity to accommodate
the volume of rain water which measures the same as 6.4
cm or 64 mm of rain water collected in a modern rain
2
gauge of area 200 cm .
Dominant cloud type, resultant nature of rainfall,
direction of cloud origin and proportions of rainfall
occurring in sea, on mountains and on the remaining land
portion (the total rainfall was considered to be of 21 parts)
for the corresponding year have been forecast in the
Panchangam empirically. The following Table 9 presents
the Panchangam predictions for the fore stated
Research article
conditions mentioned in the Panchangam from the
Chaitra month (March-April) of 1992 (Angirasa Year) to
the Phaalguna month (February-March) of 2004
(Swabhanu year). It is to be retained that all these
conjunctions, transits, alignments, etc. are to be
considered from the view of an observer on the Earth (as
perceived from the Earth) and the term ‘Nakshatram’ shall
be often referred to as ‘Star’ from here onwards.
Anaavrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring
scanty rainfall)
1. Kuja-GuruSama Saptakam (Sama in Sansktit means
‘equal’ and Saptakam means ‘septet’. Mars and
Jupiter are situated in 7th house from each other on a
mutual 1-7 axis)
2. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star
3. Saturn in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit
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4. Mercury situated ahead of the Sun and Rahu (North
Lunar Node), with Rahu in the middle
5. Ravi-ShaniSama Saptakam (Sun and Saturn are
situated in 7th house from each other on a mutual 1-7
axis)
6. Mercury situated ahead of all planets (Windy
Weather)
7. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus
8. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit
Fig. 2. Raahu and Ketu shown as Northern and Southern
Lunar nodes respectively
9. Movement of Mars in Rohini star
10. Venus situated ahead of Raahu and Sun with Raahu
(Northern Lunar Node as shown in Fig. 2) in the
middle
11. Venus appears in the West, situated in the cluster of
Makha nakshatram and its 4 counterparts. (Makha,
Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)
12. Sun and Jupiter are situated in Simha raasi (Leo
Constellation)
13. Jupiter situated ahead of Sun
14. Saturn situated ahead of Venus
15. Saturn is situated ahead followed by Venus, which is
followed by Jupiter and Sun respectively.
16. Movement of Mars in Ardra star
17. Venus situated ahead and followed by Mercury,
Jupiter and Sun taken in order.
18. Sun and Jupiter situated in Kanya raasi (Virgo
Constellation)
19. Venus ahead, followed by Mercury and Sun
20. Mars and Venus in Sama Saptakam (Refer to points
1 and 5 for the meaning of ‘Sama Saptakam’. This
Sanskrit astrological term will be used in original
without explaining its meaning again, from here
onwards)
21. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Sun
22. Sun and Mars in Sama Saptakam mode
23. Mercury ahead of Saturn
24. Sun and Jupiter in Sama Saptakam mode
25. Jupiter and Venus in Sama Saptakam mode
26. Mercury ahead of Venus ( Windy)
27. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star
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28. Mars in linear orbit and Saturn in curved orbit
29. Movement of Mars in Makha star
30. Mars in Leo Constellation
31. Mars ahead of all planets
32. Mercury appears in the East situated in Ardra star
and its 3 counterparts (The quartet comprising Ardra,
Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha )
33. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star
34. Mars and Jupiter in Kanya raasi (Virgo constellation)
35. Jupiter is situated ahead of Sun and all other planets
36. Movement of Mars in Swati star
37. Mars and Jupiter in Leo constellation
38. Mars and Jupiter situated in the same constellation
39. Venus appears in the East situated in Swati star and
its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati,
Visakha and Anuradha )
40. Movement of Mars in Jyeshtha star
41. Mars and Venus situated in the same constellation
42. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Mula star
43. Movement of Mars in Uttarashadha star
44. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak
star
45. Saturn ahead, followed by Mercury and Mars
respectively
46. Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn trio in curved orbits
47. Movement of Mars in Rohini star
48. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus
49. Mercury-Venus-Saturn trio in curved orbits
50. Movement of Mars in Aslesha star
51. Mercury ahead, followed by Venus and Sun
respectively
52. Mars in curved orbit and Saturn in linear orbit
53. Movement of Venus in Makha star
54. Saturn ahead of Mars
55. Mars ahead of Saturn
56. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star in
the East
57. Conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus in Sun’s
orbital field (Excessive wind)
58. Good strong relation between Mars and Jupiter
59. Conjunction of Saturn and Mars
60. Conjunction of Mercury and Mars
61. Conjunction of Mars and Venus
62. Venus ahead of Mars
63. Mars ahead of Venus
64. Mercury and Venus in proximity with Mercury ahead
of Venus (Windy weather)
65. Movement of Mars
66. Jupiter situated ahead of Venus
67. The rise of Venus
68. Movement of Mars in Uttaraabhaadra star
69. Conjunction of Mercury and Saturn
70. Mercury ahead of Saturn
71. Mercury ahead of Mars
72. Saturn in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit
73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Jyeshtha star
74. Mercury rises in the East
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75. Venus ahead of all the other planets
76. Mars in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit
77. Rise of Saturn
78. Jupiter ahead of Mars
79. Movement of Mars in Revathi star
80. Movement of Mars in Uttara Phalguni star
81. Sun-Jupiter-Saturn in Sama Saptakam mode (These
th
three are located in 7 house from each other
mutually)
82. Mars ahead of Venus
83. Saturn ahead of Mars and Venus
84. Relation between Mars, Jupiter and Venus
85. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Mithuna raasi
(Gemini Constellation)
86. Relation of Sun, Mars and Jupiter in Karkataka raasi
(Cancer constellation)
87. Conjunction of Sun and Saturn
88. Venus sets in Aslesha star and its 5 counterparts
(i.e., Aslesha, Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara
Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)
89. Solar entry in Ardra star between sunrise and 12
noon is especially bad and points towards coming
famine.
Suvrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring
copious rainfall)
1. All planets trace their orbits at the back of the Sun
2. Mercury and Venus in proximity ahead of Sun with
Venus ahead of Mercury (Rainy)
3. Mercury in curved orbit and Venus in linear orbit
4. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus
5. Movement of Mars
6. Venus sets
7. Mars in Patanga Maargam (The Sun’s path; because
in Sanskrit, ‘Patanga’ stands for ‘Sun’ and ‘Maargam’
means ‘Path’)
8. Rise of Venus
9. Mercury rises and appears in the East, situated in
Pushyami star
10. Jupiter sets
11. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter
12. Venus appears in the West situated in Swati star and
its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati,
Visakha and Anuradha )
13. Rise of Jupiter
14. Saturn sets
15. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit
16. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury
respectively
17. Movement of Mars in Chitra star
18. Venus appears in the East, situated in Makha star
and its 4 counterparts (Makha, Purva Phalguni,
Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra)
19. Movement of Venus
20. Conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter
21. Movement of Saturn
22. Movement of Mars in Visakha star
23. Conjunction of Jupiter and Venus
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24. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Swati star in
the East with Mercury ahead of Venus (This
particular conjuncture is known as ‘Jalaagama’,
where Jalam means ‘water’ (rain)and aagama
means ‘arrival’ in Sanskritand this presages well for
a bountiful rainfall)
25. Ketu (Southern lunar node as shown in Fig. 2) in the
middle of all the planets
26. Mercury appears in Ardra star and ‘Bha’Chatushtaya Nakshatrams (4 stars beginning with
the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, Rohini and
Mrigasira)
27. Movement of Mars in Mrigasira star
28. Venus ahead of Jupiter
29. Conjunction of three or four planets in the orbital field
of Venus
30. Mercury ahead of Venus (Though windy, sometimes
windy weather also favours rainfall as good rainfall is
sometimes accompanied by wind)
31. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the East,
situated in Punarvasu star
32. All planets trace their orbital paths ahead of the Sun
33. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the west,
situated in Hasta star
34. Relation between Venus and Mars situated in Leo
constellation
35. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Aswini star
36. Rise of Venus in Bharani star
37. Relation of Mars and Venus in Jyeshtha star
38. Venus sets in the West
39. Jupiter sets in the West situated in Shatabhishak
star
40. Mars sets in the West situated in Uttarashadha star
41. Jupiter rises in the East in Shatabhishak star
42. Saturn sets in the West in Revathi star
43. Mercury sets in Revathi star
44. Conjunction of Mars and Saturn
45. Movement of Mars in Bharani star
46. Mercury rises in Revathi star
47. Mars in Soumya maargam (The path of Mercury;
because in Sanskrit, ‘Maargam’ means ‘Path’ and
the word ‘Soumya’ denotes ‘Mercury’ (Budha) as in
Hindu mythology, he is believed to be the son of
Moon, who is also known by the name ‘Soma’)
48. Saturn rises in the East
49. Mercury sets in the East
50. Mercury sets in the West after the Sun
51. Venus in Soumya maargam
52. Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Mars
respectively
53. Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury
respectively
54. Mercury rises in the East
55. Mercury rises in the West
56. Movement of Mars in Purva Phalguni star
Vanadeep et al.
2502
Vol. 5
57. Venus appears in the West, situated in Swati star
and its 2 counterparts (Swati, Visakha and
Anuradha)
58. Venus ahead of Sun
59. Sun ahead of all the planets
60. Relation of Mercury and Venus in Aslesha star
61. Movement of Mars inPurvashadha
62. Movement of Mars in Purvaabhaadra
63. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Shatabhishak
star
64. Mercury in curved orbit and Mars in linear orbit
65. Venus in curved orbit and Mercury in linear orbit
66. Conjunction
of
Mercury
and
Venus
in
Uttaraabhaadra star
67. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Sravana star
68. Transit of Venus through stars situated in the
astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’
69. Venus situated in Swati star which is on the
astrological celestial path of ‘Soumya maargam’
70. Mercury rises in Aswini star
71. Mercury sets in Bharani star
72. Mercury rises in Bharani star
73. Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Rohini star
74. Mercury sets in Mrigasira star
75. Mercury sets in Uttara Phalguni star
76. Mercury rises in Purva Phalguni star
77. Mercury rises in Anuradha star
78. Mercury sets in Purvashadha star
79. Mercury rises in Mula star
80. Mercury sets in Sravana star
81. Mercury rises in Revathi star
82. If the entry of Sun in Ardra star happens after sunset
and before the next Sun rise, it is good for rainfall
and weather.
83. Sun entering Aardra star during late evening or night
indicates widespread and plentiful rainfall leading to
good crops and easy availability of food grains. (The
word Aardra in Sanskrit means ‘wet or dampened
one’. Hence this name aptly suits the fore stated
phenomenon).
Very recently, on 3rd of January, 2012, the conjunction of
Jupiter and Moon took place (observed from the Earth)
after sunset. This was clearly visible to the naked eye in
the East sky on the day. This was expected to bring about
changes in Temperature.
Note: Grouping of Stars –
Group 1: ‘Bha’ Chatushtaya Nakshatrams - 4 stars
beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika,
Rohini and Mrigasira.
Group 2: Ardraadi Chatushtaya Nakshatrams- Ardra,
Punarvasu, Pushya and Aslesha
Group 3: Maghaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Makha,
Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni, Hasta and Chitra
Group 4: Swatee traya Nakshatrams- Swati, Visakha and
Anuradha
Group 5: Jyeshthaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Jyeshtha,
Mula, Purvashadha, Uttarashadha and Sravana
Research article
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Group6:
Dhanishthaadi
Shatka
NakshatramsDhanishtha,
Shatabhishak,
Purvabhaadrapada,
Uttarabhaadrapada, Revathi and Aswini
When these astrologically predicted portents are
amalgamated with contemporary technological prowess
and dexterity, then, this would definitely provide a reliable
pedestal with immense impetus by unveiling a
revolutionary and ground-breaking innovation in the
arena of rainfall prediction.
Kaarti or Kartari
The moon stays conjoined with one nakshatram for
about one day and thus his stay in all the 27
nakshatrams, one per each day, constitutes the entire
lunar month. This particular star in which the moon stays
for one day is called ‘Nitya (Daily) Nakshatram’ (meaning
‘The daily star’, denoting the star with which the moon is
conjoined on that particular day of the lunar month).
Likewise, the Sun also stays in one nakshatram for a
period of about 13-14 days. The nakshatram with which
the Sun is conjoined during a month is called a ‘Maha
(Mega) Nakshatram’ (meaning ‘Mega Star’). This period
of Solar-Star conjunction during a given lunar month is
known as a ‘Kaarti’ in Telugu Panchangam (including the
Panchangam considered for the present study).
Hence, a month may consist of 1 or 2 kaarti periods
which are usually named after the Nakshatram (Star) the
Sun is conjoined with, at that particular time. These Kaarti
periods are said to be influential on weather phenomena,
particularly rainfall. Depending upon the time of the year
and the star of solar conjunction, different Kaarti periods
have different results for rainfall in a given year and the
same Kaarti period may witness different types of rainfall
in different years depending upon the various astrological
factors prevalent at that time. There are about 18 Kaarti
periods in a given year. They are shown in Table 10.
These are however, much generalized predictions
and the actual prediction for each Kaarti period in the
Panchangam differs for each year.
General Monthly Summary of Rainfall and Climate As
Envisaged In the Panchangam
(a) Chaitram: Chances of some rainfall with normal to
moderate flash rains in some places. Weather will be
windy occasionally. Overall, it will be cool and
pleasant during this season.
(b) Vaisaakham: Symptoms conducive for good rainfall
throughout the month. During the bright fortnight, there
may be 1-2 normal to moderate flash rains
accompanied by wind. Heat wave intensifies towards
the end of this month around Amavasya time.
(c) Jyeshtham: More Rains are expected during the dark
fortnight than during the bright fortnight. First
monsoonal rains begin in this month. The Godavari
and other rivers in the state flow with abundant waters.
(d) Aashaadham: Rainfall is expected to be scanty during
the bright fortnight with normal rainfall in some places.
Sky remains cloudy during the dark fortnight with 1-2
instances of good rainfall.
Vanadeep et al.
2503
Vol. 5
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
19992000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
Prediction(
Aadhakam)
1
3
3
1
3
2
1
No.4
(Apr 2012)
Table 11. Panchangam Predictions compared with the Modern Data
Prediction Recorded Max. Rain
Degree of
Yearly Mean(mm)
(mm)
on a given day (mm) Agreement (%)
16
53
30.2
12.23
48
108.4
44.3
14.73
48
70.6
68
12.72
16
150.8
10.6
15
48
185.6
26
18.11
32
103.1
31
13.57
16
103.8
15.4
13.64
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Degree of
Agreement (%)
76.4
30.7
26.5
93.8
37.7
42.4
85.3
4
64
43.6
68.1
9.32
14.6
3
3
1
48
48
16
65.9
157.4
101.8
72.8
30.5
15.7
8.14
12.14
11.85
17
25.3
74.1
(e) Sraavanam: Mostly, this month experiences
symptoms of rainfall scarcity. There may be some
rains during the bright fortnight. Rains are awaited
during the dark fortnight.
(f) Bhaadrapadam: Sky remains cloudy with normal to
moderate rainfall during this month.
(g) Aaswayujam: No considerable rainfall during this
month till Purnima (Full Moon) time. At around
Purnima, heavy rains occur due to the formation of
depression in the sea. During Amavasya (New Moon)
time, there will be rains accompanied by wind in some
regions, disturbing agriculture.
(h) Kaarthikam: Dominant symptoms of good rainfall are
perceived during this month. Rainfall ranging from
meager dew precipitation to normal showers can be
expected during the bright fortnight. Formation of
depression (low pressure area) in the sea during
Purnima and Amavasya periods, resulting in heavy
rains.
(i) Maargaseersham: Scarce rainfall during the month.
Sky remains cloudy and moist blow during this month.
There are chances of 2-3 episodes of heavy rainfall
and these rains are unfavourable for agriculture.
(j) Pousham: Probability of Scanty rainfall in this
particular month. Moderate rainfall is likely to occur
during the bright fortnight period. The dark fortnight
period experiences windy, moist and snowy weather.
(k) Maagham: No considerable rainfall in this month.
There are remote chances of 2-3 instances of rainfall,
which is usually uncharacteristic of this season.
(l) Phaalgunam: Occasional rains in the manyam (a
forest region in Northern Andhra Pradesh) region
resulting in filling up of ponds, lakes and other water
bodies situated there. Other than this, there will be
clear, dry and pleasant spring-time weather
conditions prevalent elsewhere, conducive for and
leading to the advent of summer later.
Results and discussions
Comparison with recorded data
To correlate the Panchangam prediction to the actual
recorded values, the surface meteorological data
provided by the National Data Centre, India
Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune was used.
Research article
Comparison with maximum rainfall and annual rainfall
We may recall here that the quantity of rainfall in
Panchangam is given in terms of Aadhakam units and
also that the modern value of Aadhakam was established
Fig. 3. Wind directions on a 16-point compass, each
0
separated by an angle of 22.5
Fig. 4.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with
recorded maximum rainfall on a given day of the year
to be 1.6 cm or 16 mm (approx.). The rainfall prediction in
this Panchangam may be treated as the maximum
amount of rainfall on any single given day of that
particular year in deliberation, or even the more generic
average rainfall during the year. All these have been
incorporated in Table 11 and comparison of Panchangam
prediction with recorded maximum rain on a given day of
Vanadeep et al.
2504
Vol. 5
the year and yearly mean are graphically represented in
Fig. 3 and Fig.4 respectively.
Note: Adequate meteorological daily surface data for
Tirupati region is not available for the year 2003-2004
from the archives of IMD
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
No.4
(Apr 2012)
be applied to any or all of the regions of Andhra Pradesh
or even by considering Andhra Pradesh state as a whole.
Evaluation employing bi-monsoonal precipitation
An attempt has been made to examine the extent of
agreement of the almanac predictions with the average
Table 12. Panchangam predictions compared with Monsoonal Averages
Degree of
Panchangam
Average South West
Agreement
Average North East
Rainfall Prediction
Monsoonal
(%)
Monsoonal Rainfall (mm)
(mm)
Rainfall (mm)
16
48
48
16
48
32
16
64
48
48
16
8.6
9.8
11.0
12.5
15.1
9.3
9.2
6.2
6.4
7.8
8.7
53.8
20.4
23.0
78.1
31.5
29.0
57.5
9.7
13.3
16.3
54.4
Fig. 5.Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction
with recorded yearly mean rainfall
Fig. 6. Comparison of Panchangam rainfall prediction with
recorded average south-west rainfall, average north-east
rainfall and average of total monsoon rainfall data.
Further, it has to be borne in mind that this Panchangam
rainfall prediction is valid over the entire Andhra Pradesh
region and is not confined to one particular place. It can
Research article
ISSN: 0974- 6846
15.1
19.8
15.3
11.8
23.0
16.8
21.7
14.4
12.5
18.6
14.1
Degree of Agreement (%)
94.4
41.3
32.0
73.8
47.9
52.5
73.7
22.5
26.0
38.8
88.1
rainfall measured during the traditional Varsha Rutu
(Rainy Season), which temporally corresponds to the
modern South West monsoon period (June-September)
and also with North East monsoon period (OctoberDecember). This is showcased in Table 12. The data has
been compared with the Panchangam prediction as it is
represented graphically in Fig. 5.
Tirupati receives heavy rainfall and often, majority of
its rainfall during North East monsoon time accompanied
by the formation of depressions in Bay of Bengal that
result in incessant rains for days together. The farming
season during the South West monsoons is known by the
name ‘Khareef’ and during North East monsoons; this is
called ‘Rabi’ in Southern India. Obviously, the highest
rainfall during a year occurs during either of the two
monsoons. But, there are some instances when isolated
high rainfall episodes are witnessed during Summer
(Mostly in May and seldom in April) due to the convective
torrential rains (involving Cumulonimbus clouds). In
addition, there are some scattered rains observed during
the Maagha month (February), called “Maaghapaali”
rains, which have been effectively predicted in the
Panchangam. However, these inconsistent and discrete
cases specified above, have been included in general
overall rainfall analysis in Table 11 above and hence, not
been given much emphasis in further analysis and
calculations.
Assessment of rainfall based on planetary reign in
Panchangam
The Panchangam also predicts the nature of rainfall
in a year based on its quantity depending upon the
planetary reign of that particular year. Comparison of this
astrological forecast with the total recorded rainfall for a
given year is shown in Table 13. The years ruled by
Saturn experienced comparatively scanty rainfall (19921993, 1995-1996, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). The reign
Vanadeep et al.
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Vol. 5
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Table 13. Comparison of the predicted effect of planetary rulership on annual rainfall, with recorded data
King
Predicted Nature of Rainfall
Recorded Total Annual Rainfall (mm)
Saturn
Scanty (with strong winds)
758.6
Mercury
Very Good (Windy)
1413.8
Moon
Heavy
1170.1
Saturn
Scanty (strong winds)
899.0
Mercury
Very Good (Windy)
1901.4
Mars
Destructive with damage to crops
1275.8
Saturn
Scanty (strong winds )
1132.9
Jupiter
Low to Satisfactory
727.2
Mercury
Good (Windy)
760.9
Moon
Heavy
1226.4
Saturn
Scanty (strong winds)
912.2
of Mercury yielded very good rainfall during 19931994 and 1996-1997. The Moon’s royal sway over the
years 1994-1995 and 2001-2002 resulted in heavy rainfall
during these two years. Jupiter’s tenure during 1999-2000
witnessed considerably low rainfall. All the above
observations were in significant correlation to the
predictions made in the Panchangam, positioning the
degree of correlation at an astounding 81.8%.
But, the term of Mars in 1997-1998 was expected to
bring low rainfall with extensive damage to agriculture.
But, the actual rainfall (1275.8 mm) was prominently
above the normal range during this year. Likewise, the
Kingship of Mercury during 2000-2001 recorded a
substantially low rainfall (760.9 mm.), that is quite
Year
No.4
In addition to this, the mean rainfall during the two
monsoons was also associated with the Almanac
predictions. The degree of association with mean SouthWest monsoonal rainfall was established as between
9.7% and 78.1% (Table 12). The average association
was determined to be 35.2%. In case of North East
monsoon, this association spanned from 22.5% to 94.4%
(Table 12) and whose mean was computed to be 53.72%.
When it comes to the case of considering the normal of
the total monsoonal precipitation, the extent of
correspondence to the traditional Panchangam estimates
vary from 16.1% to 88.1% and the average of the extent
of this relation stood at 45.8% (Table 14).
Table 14.Total monsoonal average compared with Panchangam prediction
Total Monsoon Rainfall
Average of total
Predicted
(mm)
Monsoon Rainfall (mm)
Rainfall in Panchangam (mm)
661.0
11.4
16
1283.7
14.6
48
1012
13.0
48
668.2
12.2
16
1749
18.6
48
1177.1
13.4
32
1125.5
14.1
16
637.2
10.3
64
710.9
9.0
48
1086.2
13.0
48
769.6
10.8
16
contradictory to the respective prediction. The extent of
disagreement was only 18.2%.
Appraisal with aggregate monsoonal showers
Further, the average of the total rainfall documented
during the two monsoons (South West & North East) has
also been correlated with the rainfall predicted by the
Panchangam (Table 14).
From the above statistics, we can notice that the
degree of agreement of the maximum rainfall on any
given day of the year ranged from 10.6% to 72.8% (Table
11). The average extent of coincidence was 37.51%.
Similarly, the annual mean rainfall was also compared to
the Panchangam prediction and the range of agreement
extended from 14.6% to 93.8%, the average of which was
calculated to be 47.62% (Table 11).
Research article
Degree of Agreement
(%)
71.3
30.4
27.1
76.3
38.8
42.0
88.1
16.1
18.8
27.1
67.5
Evaluation based on predicted cloud type and nature of
resultant rainfall
As per the modern meteorology, Cirrus (High
Altitude) clouds are not expected to give any rainfall or
sometimes yield low rainfall based on the moisture
content in the atmosphere and the descent of the cirrus
ice crystals on to middle and low altitude clouds, which
aptly suits Pushkara clouds. During the period of study,
this cloud was predicted to be dominant during the
Panchangam year 1992-1993 and the total annual rainfall
in Tirupati during this year was also low (758.6 mm) (see
Table 15). Also, the total rainfall during the two monsoons
in 1992-93 (661.0 mm) was the lowest during the period
of study (see Table 14). The prediction and actual rainfall
for 1999-2000 also were in great agreement with each
other (727.2 mm) (Table 15).
Vanadeep et al.
2506
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No.4
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ISSN: 0974- 6846
Table 15. Cloud type predictions compared with real-time cloud observations
Dominant Cloud type
Type of Rainfall
Total Rainfall
Year
Dominant Cloud Type Observed
Predicted
Predicted
(mm)
Cirrus in the form of hooks,
1992-93
Pushkaram
Less Rain
758.6
progressively invading the Sky
Stratocumulus & Cumulus, other
Uniform Rain-Very
1993-94
Samvartakam
than that formed from spreading of
1413.8
windy
Cumulus
Altocumulus in 2 or more layers;
1994-95
Avartakam
Less Rain
1170.1
opaque at places
Stratocumulus not formed by
1995-96
Tamo
Scattered Rain
899.0
spreading Cumulus
Windy & Less
1996-97
Vaayu
Semi-transparent Altocumulus
1901.4
Rain
Stratocumulus formed by spreading
1997-98
Varunam
Heavy Rainfall
1275.8
Cumulus
Altocumulus, principally semi1998-99
Neelam
Heavy Rainfall
1132.9
transparent
1999-2000
Kaalam
Low Rainfall
Dense Cirrus; like Cumuliform tufts
727.2
Cumuliform clouds formed by their
2000-01
Dronam
Incessant rainfall
760.9
spreading
Windy & Uniform
Stratocumulus not formed by
2001-02
Samvartakam
1226.4
Rainfall
spreading out of Cumulus
Predominantly translucent
2002-03
Avartakam
Less Rain
912.2
Altocumulus
Table 16.Observed direction of cloud origin compared with Panchangam prediction
Actual Direction of Cloud
Dominant Wind Direction(s) during
Direction of Cloud Generation
Year
Observed (using 8 points of
the Year (using 16 points of
Predicted in Panchangam
compass)
compass)
1992-93
North – East
No definite direction*
SSW, SW, NE, NNE
1993-94
North
North – East
SSW,SW, NE, NNE
1994-95
North
No definite direction
SW, SSW, NE, NNE
1995-96
West
South – West
NE
1996-97
North – West
SW, NE
1997-98
South – West
North – East
NE, SW, SSW, W
1998-99
South – East
SSW, NE
1999-2000
South
SW, ENE, NE, W
2000-01
East
SW, SSW, NE, ENE, W
2001-02
North – East
SW, NE
2002-03
North
South
W, SW, SSW, NE, ENE
*This means the cloud is at the center of the sky without orientation towards any direction or the particular cloud is spread over
multiple directions or it is invading and pervading the entire sky. NE=North-East; SW=South-West; SSW=South-South-West;
NNE=North–North-East; W=West; ENE=East–North-East. In Sanskrit, the East direction is called Purva, Prak or Prachi; West is
called Paschimam or Prateechi; North is known as Uttaram; South is known by the name Dakshinam; North-East is called
Ishanyam; South-West is termed Nairuti; North-West is called Vaayavyam and South-East has been given the nomenclature
Aagneyam. The rulers of the eight directions are: a). East: Lord Indra (King of the Gods. Hence, East is considered to be the King
or the most auspicious of all the directions as the Sun also rises in the East) b). West: Lord Varuna (The Rain-God. Clouds
originating in the West consistently yield copious rainfall) c). North: Lord Kubera (Lord of Wealth. As per the science of Vaastu the art of propitious construction, all the treasures like money valuables, cash boxes et cetera are to be placed at the North) d).
South: Lord Yama (Lord of Death. The South wind is generally thought to be non-beneficial and is of ‘howling’ nature.
Moreover,southern clouds normally result in miserly rainfall). e). North-East: Lord Ishaana (a form of Lord Rudra or Lord Siva,
after whom this direction is named ‘Ishaanya’). f). South-West: Lord Niruti (a Raakshasa or a demon, after whom this direction is
named ‘Nairuti’) g). North-West: Lord Vaayu (The Wind-God, after whom the direction is named ‘Vaayavyam’). h). South-East:
Lord Agni (The Fire-God, after whom this direction is named ‘Aagneyam’). All of the above mentioned rulers of the eight directions
are known as 'Ashta Dik Paalakas'. In Sanskrit, Ashta means 'Eight'; Dik means 'Direction' and Paalaka means 'Ruler'.
Altocumulus clouds visible on a warm and humid
summer morning portend rain or thunderstorm by late
afternoon. Stratocumulus clouds generally appear as the
remains of a much larger cumulus cloud. Normal Rain or
Snow may fall from Stratocumulus. Cumulus clouds
develop vertically into the atmosphere as opposed to
Research article
other cloud forms, into the form of Cumulus Congestus
and occasionally into the most dreadful, impactful and
power-packed variant, Cumulonimbus, the towering cloud
clusters often extending into the lower stratosphere. The
outcome would be a showery precipitation, usually a
thunderstorm, accompanied by gale winds.
Vanadeep et al.
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Further, it can be easily concluded that the prediction of region to which the wind blows, i.e., opposite to the wind
cloud type and rainfall in the Panchangam accords well direction (The direction from which the wind originates).
with the actual cloud types observed, based on the nature 16-point compass format is used to measure wind speed
of rainfall expected from them. However, there are which is shown in Fig. 6. Based on this modern scientific
discrepancies between the actual quantity of rainfall observation, we shall try to interpret the predictions of
recorded and the prediction in some cases (Table 15).
Panchangam pertaining to the direction of cloud origin.
Hence, among the 11 years considered, 7 years
It can be observed that the modern observations
witnessed the coincidence of the recorded rainfall with hardly coincide with the Panchangam predictions, with 7
the Panchangam predictions to some extent or the other, out of 11 modern observations unable to assign any
placing the scope of their association at a healthy rate of particular direction to the observed dominant cloud type
about 63.6%.
(Table 16). During the years 1992-93, 1996-97, 1997-98,
Directions of cloud origin in almanac weighed with actual 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 the prediction for cloud
phenomenon
direction was in good terms with the observed wind
Panchangam clearly specifies the direction of origin directions (mutually opposite directions). The years 1993of the cloud type that is dominant during a year. These 94, 1994-95, 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 showed some
predictions can be matched with the contemporary approximate resemblance (for instance, in 1994-95,
meteorological observations (Table16).
when the predicted cloud direction was North, the
Wind Direction to the Rescue: Here, it is quite noteworthy observed prevalent wind direction was South-West and
that even during the instances where the modern South – South-West, where the anticipated wind direction
observations were unable to ascertain a specific direction was from South). The years 1995-96 and 1998-1999
of clouds; Panchangam was able to predict it well in exhibited no correlation at all in this regard (Table 16).
advance. Since we have no direct source in the above Hence, the overall percentage of perfect correlation was
data in Table 16 to verify these propositions, we need to 45.5%. The rate of proximate association was calculated
do so circuitously by considering the direction of to be 36.4% and the extent of total non-correlation was
prevalent wind during the year. Air always travels from only a trivial 18.1%. From these, it can be substantively
regions of high pressure to regions of low pressure. This asserted that the total magnitude of this degree of
pressure gradient facilitates the flow (blowing) of air agreement (to some extent or the other) was placed at
which is called ‘Wind’. From the surface level to the 81.9% with a mere disagreement of 18.1%.This sound
tropospheric altitudes, the wind flow occurs horizontally. relationship provides us with an adequate proof of the fact
For instance, the wind originating from the north would that our great ancestors were well aware of the
travel towards the south and vice versa. (On the other mechanisms of wind circulation and cloud formation.
hand, the winds occurring at the higher reaches of Measured wind velocity linked to Panchangam
atmosphere are vertical winds). The gradient is a predictions
consequence of Sun’s heat resulting in temperature
In addition, the Panchangam repeatedly and
variations. Air at high temperature possesses high categorically asserts that the reign of Mercury induces a
pressure owing to thermal agitation of air molecules. windy weather during a given year though it witnesses
Therefore, air flow occurs till the equilibrium of good amount of rainfall. Saturn’s rule causes scanty
temperature and pressure is achieved. Furthermore, rainfall with stormy winds. The Kingship of Mars probably
winds converge in a low pressure zone, moving in an ends up with destruction of crops due to gale winds, hail
anti-clockwise direction. This is called a
storms and other pervasive elements.
Table 17.Wind category based on
‘cyclonic circulation’.
Going
by
the
contemporary
wind velocity
On the other hand, in a high pressure
meteorology,
wind
velocities
can be
Wind velocity
Category
zone, winds diverge out, moving in a
categorized
as
shown
in
Table
17,
range (kmph)
clockwise direction. This is known as an
(http://www.windfinder.com/wind/windsp
1
Calm
th
‘Anti-cyclonic circulation’. Hence, air 1 – 5
eed.htm; accessed on 15 of January,
Light Air
begins to settle down in low pressure 6 – 11
2012).
Light Breeze
areas, where the air parcels or packets
The range of maximum wind
12 – 19
Gentle Breeze
come under the influence of boundary
velocity during the period of study varied
20 – 28
Moderate Breeze
layer and other local endemic factors, 29 – 38
from 28 km/h to 72 km/h. So, from the
Fresh Breeze
where they begin to rise in atmosphere
classification provided above, we can
39 – 49
Strong Breeze
thereby accumulating more and more
easily infer that this range corresponds
High Wind, Near
50 – 61
Gale
water vapour. Consequently, they reach
to moderate breezes, fresh breezes,
Gale Wind
their saturation point and form clouds. 62 – 74
strong breezes, high winds nearer to
Severe Gale
From all these, one can arrive at a 75 – 88
gale speed and finally, gale winds.
Stormy Wind
general conclusion that clouds are 89 – 102
Except during 1993-1994 (72 km/h) and
Violent Storm
formed in areas of low pressure at a 103 –117
118 - 133
Research article
Hurricane
Vanadeep et al.
2508
Vol. 5
Year
1992-93
1993-94
1994-95
1995-96
1996-97
1997-98
1998-99
1999-2000
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
Table 18. Panchangam wind speed predictions matched with on-site measurements
Panchangam
Measured Maximum
Measured Annual
Planetary
No. of Days with Wind
Prediction with
Wind Velocity on any
Average Wind Velocity
Reign
Velocity >=28kmph
respect to Wind
given day (kmph)
(kmph)
Saturn
Strong Winds
38
15
14
Mercury
Very Windy Weather
72
14.5
6
Usually calm with
Moon
38
14
2
heavy rainfall
Saturn
Strong Winds
28
13.1
2
Mercury
Windy Weather
34
13.1
10
Mars
Destructive to Crops
46
15.5
44
Saturn
Strong Wind
34
14.2
10
Low to Satisfactory
Jupiter
Rainfall with light or
34
14.7
18
no breezes
Mercury
Windy Weather
36
14.1
17
Heavy Rainfall with
Moon
34
13.9
16
composed weather
Saturn
Strong Wind
38
15.2
29
1995-1996 (28 km/h), all the other years had their
maximum wind speeds spanning from 34 km/h to 46 km/h
(Table 18). These winds can be very convincingly tagged
as extending from fresh breezes to strong breezes and
when these are prevalent on a given day, it can be
declared that the weather is ‘Windy’. By considering the
annual average wind speed, it can be concluded that
gentle breezes were dominant during the years under
consideration (Table 18). Except during the four years
1993-94, 1995-96, 1999-2000 and 2001-2002, all the
other seven years complied with the predictions of the
Panchangam to a pronounced level. The height of
concurrence was established at around 63.6%, while the
degree of disagreement was placed at about 36.4%.
From all these comparative observations, it can be
vividly stated that an Apposite blend of ancient
knowledge and modern technical prowess would
undoubtedly work wonders for the field of Science and in
this context, would unquestionably augur marvels in the
arena of weather forecasting and monsoon prediction, in
particular.
Conclusion
Though most of the Predictions in Panchangam are
qualitative and usually generalized over a given area, say
a state, an in-depth study and analysis of the propositions
enshrined in the almanac, in conjunction with the modern
sophisticated meteorological science will result in the
evolution of a more accurate, reliable and accountable
weather forecasting in the near future. Our ancient
Indians did not have the luxury of sophisticated and
automated weather mapping devices. Yet, they were able
to develop astonishingly erudite and pertinent theories
and principles often without even looking at the sky,
which significantly coincided with the modern findings of
late. The calendar system and time scales in the
Panchangam are immaculate. A year with an
Adhikamaasam occurs around 7 times in 19 years.
Sometimes, due to the varying speeds of Earth’s rotation
around the Sun, it so happens that a solar month may be
Research article
shorter than the lunar month. This calls for a deduction of
a lunar month from the calendar. This eliminated month is
known as ‘Ksheenamaasam or Kshayamaasam’.
Panchangam predictions maintained a vigorous rate
of positive association with the authentic observations.
This extended from 10.6% to 72.8% in case of maximum
rainfall recorded on any given day of a particular year and
from 14.6% to 93.8% pertaining to the total mean annual
rainfall during the period of study. During the period of
South-West monsoon, this relationship fluctuated
between 9.7% and 78.1%. During North-East monsoon
time, this vacillated from 22.5% to 94.4%. The observed
total monsoonal mean rainfall corresponded to the
Panchangam predictions to an extent stretching from
16.1% to 88.1%.The prediction of rainfall based on the
planetary crown of a given year coincided with the actual
total annual rainfall to an extent of 81.8%. When it comes
to the issue of comparison of predicted dominant cloud
type during a year and the resultant rainfall, with the
recorded measurements, the scope of this association
was found to be 63.6%. Further, the direction of cloud
origin as foreseen in the Panchangam was discovered to
be likened to the real-time observations at a rate of
81.9%. When the predicted nature of wind velocity was
under deliberation, the height of concord with the on-site
observations during the period of study was established
to be 63.6%. Hence, to summarize at a bird’s eye view,
the degree of association between predictions and
recorded data was of the order ranging from a meager
9.7% to a staggering 94.4% in case of individual
observations. On the whole, the general trend of
Panchangam predictions versus actual observations
emerged out to be 56.75% (57% (approx.)).
Vanadeep et al.
2509
Vol. 5
Besides, the numerical weather prediction (NWP)
models like T80, T170, MM5 and Eta, run at the National
Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
(NCMRWF) failed to predict nearly one third of the cases
of high rainfall spells at most of the locations situated
north of 200 N or the Eastern peninsula or in the Bay of
Bengal. It was also noted that no particular NWP model
has performed satisfactorily in predicting high amount of
rainfall in different parts of India at the same time
(Khaladkar et al, 2007). On the consummate, during the
study period, the mean success rate of Panchangam
predictions set against the modern observations was put
at 57 %( approx.). When viewed from this germane
perspective, Panchangam can be conferred with the
status of a full-fledged ‘Scientific Weather Prediction
Model’. With rapid climatic changes and global warming,
drastic vagaries of the weather phenomena have been a
commonplace occurrence during the recent decades.
This is the reason why many weather prediction models
have recurrently failed to function as anticipated. This
predicament applies to all the traditional scientific texts
and treatises, including the Panchangam. With the
climatic trends being rendered capricious day by day, the
effectiveness and efficacy of all the traditional, indigenous
as well as the present-day scientific methods is to be
once again inspected and re-evaluated.
Given this existing milieu, there is an impending
necessity to amalgamate this traditional knowledge gifted
to us as an irreplaceable heritage by our forefathers, with
the
latest
cutting-edge
decorous
technological
innovations, in order to accomplish an apropos,
comprehensive as well as a seemly and fittingly fulfilling
meteorological monitoring and forecasting mechanism in
the visible imminent future.
Acknowledgement
Our heartfelt thankfulness to National Data Centre,
India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for the
supply of the requested data essential for carrying out this
study. We express our profound gratefulness and
appreciation to Ms. Haripriya Chinthapally, USA for her
invaluable support and cooperation in statistical data
programming and article formatting.
References
1. Balkundi HV (1999) Commentary on ‘Krishi Parasara’,
translated by Sudhale N. Agri. History Bull.,
Publication No.2, Asian Agri History Foundation,
Secunderabad.
2. Bharadwaj Dinesh M (2004) Panchangam – The Indian
Almanac, About Astrology, www.explocity.com/
Channels/ Astrology/Panchangam.asp
3. Burghart
(2000)
In:
http://www.suite101.com/
article.cfm/nature_sketches/33934.
4. De US, Joshi UR and Prakasa Rao GS (2004)
Nakshatram based rainfall climatology. Mausam.
55(2), 305.
5. Galacgac ES and Balisacan CM (2009) Traditional
weather forecasting for sustainable agroforestry
Research article
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
practices in Ilocos Norte Province, Philippines. Forest
Ecol. Manage. 257, 2044-2053.
6. Kanani PR and Pastakia Astad (1999) Everything is
written in the sky! : Participatory meteorological
assessment and prediction based on traditional beliefs
and indicators in Saurashtra. J. Asian Int. Bioethics. 9,
170.
7. Khaladkar RM, Narkhedkar SG & Mahajan PN (2007)
Performance of NCMRWF models in predicting high
rainfall spells during SW monsoon season– A study for
some cases in July 2004, Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology (IITM), Pune, Research Report No. RR –
116.
8. Mishra SK, Dubey VK and Pandey RC (2002) Rain
forecasting in Indian almanacs (Panchangs): A case
for making Krishi-Panchang. Asian Agri-Hist. 6(1), 2942.
9. Ravi Shankar K, Pochaiah Maraty, Murthy VRK and
Ramakrishna YS (2008) Indigenous rain forecasting in
Andhra Pradesh, Central Research Institute for Dry
land Agriculture, Hyderabad. pp: 1-67.
10. Richard Thompson (1997), Planetary diameters in the
Surya-Siddhanta. J. Scientific Exploration. 11(2), 193200.
11. Roncoli C, Ingram K, Kirshen P and Jost C (2001)
Burkina Faso A: Integrating indigenous and scientific
rainfall
forecasting.
World
Bank
Indigenous
Knowledge Series No. 39.
12. Sandeep Acharya (2011) Prediction of rainfall
variation through flowering phenology of nightflowering jasmine (Nyctanthes arbor-tristis L.;
Verbenaceae) in Tripura. Indian J. Traditional
Knowledge.10 (1), 96-101.
13. Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami (1997) Vedic
Calendar – The Kadavul Hindu Panchangam, The
Saivite Series, Himalayan Academy, Kapaa, Hawaii.
14. Sivaprakasam S and Kanakasabai V (2009)
Traditional almanac predicted rainfall – A case study.
IndianJ. Traditional Knowledge. 8 (4), 621-625.
15. Tripathi RPM (1969) Indigenous methods of rainfall
prediction, M.Sc (Ag) Thesis, Department of Extension
Education, BHU, Varanasi.
Vanadeep et al.

Meteorological predictions preserved in the Panchangam versus

Transcription

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