European Network for Conflict Research (ENCoRe)

International Workshop
European Network for Conflict Research
(ENCoRe)
2015 Meeting Bonn
5-7 March 2015,
German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)
The European Network for Conflict Research (ENCoRe) meets biannually to discuss
developments in conflict data and analysis. ENCoRe brings together scholars from renowned
universities across Europe and is funded as a COST (European Cooperation in Science and
Technology) action. The Bonn meeting 2015 draws on the research conducted over the past
years and builds bridges to practitioners in the conflict and security sector. Joint panels with
researchers and practitioners facilitate the exchange. This includes panels discussing policy
briefs on peacekeeping and on non-state armed groups as well as roundtables on the impact
of inequality on conflict, the impact of the Internet on conflict and the state-of-the-art in
predicting violent conflict. Presentation of new datasets and academic panels on current
conflict issues frame the policy components.
ENCoRe Workshop
‡”ƒ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–•–‹–—–‡/ Deutsches Institut für
Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)
‘ ͷǦ͹ƒ”…ŠʹͲͳͷ
ŽŽ‡˜‡–•–ƒ‡’Žƒ…‡‹–Š‡Ž‡…–—”‡ŠƒŽŽ—Ž‡••‘–Š‡”™‹•‡‹†‹…ƒ–‡†
Thursday
ͲͻǣͲͲǦͳͲǣ͵Ͳ Academic panel 1:
Post-conflict situations / The role of natural
resources
Šƒ‹”ǣ
ƒ”‹Œ‡‡”’‘‘”–‡ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ™‡”’Ȍ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ Š”‹•–‹ƒ˜‘ƒŽ†‡™ƒ‰ȋȌ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
Š‡’‡ƒ…‡†‹˜‹†‡†’ƒ”ƒ†‘šǣƒ–—”ƒŽ”‡•‘—”…‡™ƒ”•‹–Š‡•Šƒ†‘™‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ—–—”‡
ƒ‹•ƒ‹ƒ‹‡ȋ‹…‘Ž‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌƬ‘ƒ‹”‡—–œȋ’’•ƒŽƒ
‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
Š‡…‘’‡–‹–‹‘‘˜‡””‡•‘—”…‡•ǣ‡™ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‹–Š‡…‘–‡š–‘ˆŽ‘™•…ƒŽ‡
˜‹‘Ž‡…‡
‘”œ‡–ƒƒƒ‹ȋò”‹…ŠȌƬŽ‹ƒ”—–•…Š‹ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‡„•–‡”Ȍǣ
‡†‹ƒ–‹‘ƒˆ–‡”ƒ–”‘…‹–‹‡•ǫ‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‡†‹ƒ–‹‘•—’’Ž›ƒ††‡ƒ†
‡˜‡‡Žȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
”‡‹ˆ•™ƒŽ†ȌƬƒ”‰‹–—••ƒȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
”‡‹ˆ•™ƒŽ†Ȍ
‘™…ƒ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ–”—•–„‡„—‹Ž–ƒˆ–‡”…‹˜‹Ž™ƒ”•ǫ‡••‘•ˆ”‘’‘•–Ǧ…‘ˆŽ‹…–‹‡””ƒ
‡‘‡
—‹Ǧƒ‰‘‰ȋƒƒ•–”‹…Š–‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
ͳͲǣ͵ͲǦͳͲǣͷͲ Break
ͳͲǣͷͲǦͳʹǣʹͲ Academic panel 2:
The role of ethnicity and new media in conflict
Šƒ‹”ǣ
‹–ƒ
‘Š†‡•ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ ‘ƒ‹”‡—–œȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
‡…–‘‹…„‘—†ƒ”‹‡•ƒ†•–”‘‰Š‘Ž†•ǣ‡Ž‹‰‹‘—•‰‡‘‰”ƒ’Š›‘ˆ˜‹‘Ž‡…‡‹
‘”–Š‡””‡Žƒ†
ƒ‡•—‡ŽŽ‡”ȋ•–‹–—–†ǯƒŽ‹•‹…‘‘‹…ƒǡƒ”…‡Ž‘ƒȌǡ‘‹‹…‘Š‡”
ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒ—•ƒ‡ȌƬƒ˜‹†…Š‘‡Š‘Žœ‡”ȋ‡”‡Ž‡›Ȍ
‹‰‹–ƒŽ†‹•…”‹‹ƒ–‹‘ǫ–Š‹…‹–›ƒ†–‡”‡–ƒ……‡••
‹Ž•‡‹†ƒȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌƬ—•‘ƒŽ‡ƒ–‘ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
‘•–ƒœȌ
–‡”‡–ƒ†’”‘–‡•–•‹ƒ—–Š‘”‹–ƒ”‹ƒ”‡‰‹‡•
”‹•—‹Œ‰”‘ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ•–‡”†ƒȌ
Šƒ–̵•„‡Š‹†ƒ…Ž‹…ǫˆ‹‡Ž†‡š’‡”‹‡–—•‹‰‘„‹Ž‡ƒ†˜‡”–‹•‹‰‹‘•‹ƒ
‡”‘•‡‹••‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌƬ‹Ž•‡‹†ƒȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
‘•–ƒœȌ
[Parallel to Academic panel 2:]
ͳͲǣͷͲǦͳʹǣʹͲ Academic panel 3: Interaction between attitudes and conflict
Seminar room
Šƒ‹”ǣ
‹ŽŽ‹ƒŠ‘Žœ‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ ”‹˜‘…Š‹ŽŽ‡”ƒŽŽ‡ȋȌ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
Ž‡…–‹‘ˆ”ƒ—†ƒ†…‘ŽŽ‡…–‹˜‡ƒ…–‹‘ǣ†‹˜‹†—ƒŽƒ––‹–—†‡•ƒ†’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‘‹
’”‘–‡•–‹‹‰‡”‹ƒ
”•—Žƒƒš‡…‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ•–‡”†ƒȌǡ‡••‹…ƒ‹ƒŽ˜ƒ–‘”‡
ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ•–‡”†ƒȌƬ†”‡ƒ—‰‰‡”‹ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆšˆ‘”†Ȍ
Š‡‡–Š‘•‘ˆ…‘ˆŽ‹…–‹‘”–Š‡”‘•‘˜‘‡”„•
ƒ‘‡¯‡†‘˜‹©ȋ•–‹–—–‡‘ˆ”‹‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽƒ†‘…‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ‡•‡ƒ”…Šǡ
‡Ž‰”ƒ†‡ȌƬ‘„ƒ‡–”‘˜‹©ȋ•–‹–—–‡‘ˆ”‹‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽƒ†‘…‹‘Ž‘‰‹…ƒŽ
‡•‡ƒ”…Šǡ‡Ž‰”ƒ†‡Ȍ
š’Žƒ‹‹‰’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‘„›Ž‘‘‹‰ƒ–•–”‡••ƒ†–Š”‡ƒ–ǣ•”ƒ‡Ž‹•ƒ†
ƒŽ‡•–‹‹ƒ•
Šƒ‹ƒ…Š–‡”ȋ‡„”‡™‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‡”—•ƒŽ‡Ȍǡƒ’Šƒƒ‡––‹
ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒ‹ˆƒȌƬƒŽƒƒŽȋ‡Ž˜‹˜‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
‘Ž‹…›’”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡”‡‰ƒ”†‹‰ƒ•›Ž—•‡‡‡”•ǣ˜‹†‡…‡ˆ”‘•–—†‹‡•‹•”ƒ‡Žƒ†
—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ
‡”‡‹†‡”ȋƒ‹ˆƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍǡƒ’Šƒƒ‡––‹ȋƒ‹ˆƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌƬ‡
‡†‡”•‡
ͳʹǣʹͲǦͳ͵ǣͷͲ Lunch
Plenary hall
ͳ͵ǣͷͲǦͳͷǣʹͲ Data panel 1:
Updates on conflict data
Šƒ‹”ǣ
ƒ„‹‡ƒ”‡›ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
Š‡–Š‹…‘™‡”‡Žƒ–‹‘•ȋȌ‘”‡ƒ–ƒ•‡–ƒ†–Š‡
—’’Žƒ–ˆ‘”
—…
‹”ƒ†‹ȋ—”‹…ŠȌƬƒ”•Ǧ”‹‡†‡”ƒȋ—”‹…ŠȌ
Š‡’’•ƒŽƒ‘ˆŽ‹…–ƒ–ƒ”‘‰”ƒȋȌ
‡‘”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡†˜‡–ƒ–ƒ•‡–ȋ
Ȍ
ƒ”‹ƒ
”‡‡ȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
ƒ––‡”‘ˆ†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘ǣ—””‡–…‘…‡’–•‘ˆ…‘ˆŽ‹…–ƒ†–Š‡‡‹†‡Ž„‡”‰ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š
Š”‹•–‘’Š”‹ȋ‡‹†‡Ž„‡”‰‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌǡŠ‘ƒ•‡…‡”ȋ‡‹†‡Ž„‡”‰
‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌƬ‹…‘Žƒ•…Š™ƒȋ‡‹†‡Ž„‡”‰‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
ͳͷǣʹͲǦͳͷǣͶͲ Break
ͳͷǣͶͲǦͳ͹ǣͳͲ Roundtable 1:
Inequality and conflict
”‹•–‹ƒ‡ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‘†‘Ȍ
ƒ”•Ǧ”‹‡†‡”ƒȋ—”‹…ŠȌ
ƒ”…‡Ž¡…‡”ȋȌ
ͳ͹ǣͳͲǦͳͺǣͶͲ JointENCoRe working groups meeting [members only]
ͳͻǣ͵Ͳ
Workshop dinner at Bönnsch
Friday
ͲͺǣͳͷǦͻǣ͵Ͳ Working group one-sided violence [members only]
Seminar room
Ͳͻǣ͵ͲǦͳͳǣͲͲ Policy panel 1:
Šƒ‹”ǣ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ
Peacebuilding and peacekeeping
‘Ž‡”ƒ—…ȋ—”‘’‡ƒ‡–”‡ˆ‘”‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‘Ž‹…›ƒƒ‰‡‡–Ȍ
‘ˆ‹ƒƒ”––ƒȋ…‹‡–‹ˆ‹…ƒ†˜‹•‘”–‘‡„‡”‘ˆ
‡”ƒ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–‘
‘‡‹‰•Ȍ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‹‰–Š‡…‘ˆŽ‹…–Ǧ”‡†—…‹‰‡ˆˆ‡…–‘ˆ’‡ƒ…‡‡‡’‹‰‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘•
¤˜ƒ”†‡‰”‡ȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍǡ‹•ƒ—Ž–ƒȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌƬ
¤˜ƒ”†›‰¤”†ȋȌ
‹˜‹Ž™ƒ”–‡”‹ƒ–‹‘•ǡ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•—’’‘”–ǡƒ†•—……‡••ˆ—Ž’‡ƒ…‡„—‹Ž†‹‰
‘ƒ‹”‡—–œȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘•ǣ‘™—•‡ˆ—Žƒ”‡†‹•ƒ”ƒ‡–ǡ†‡‘„‹Ž‹œƒ–‹‘ƒ†
”‡‹–‡‰”ƒ–‹‘’”‘‰”ƒ•ǫ
‹ŽŽ‹ƒŠ‘Žœ‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍ
ͳͳǣͲͲǦͳͳǣʹͲ Break
ͳͳǣʹͲǦͳʹǣʹͲ Roundtable 2:
The role of the Internet in conflict
‹Ž•‡‹†ƒȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
‹–ƒ
‘Š†‡•ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍ
‡…›ƒœƒ•›ȋƒ…–‹…ƒŽ‡…Š‘Ž‘‰›‘ŽŽ‡…–‹˜‡Ȍ
ͳʹǣʹͲǦͳ͵ǣͷͲ Lunch
Plenary hall
ͳ͵ǣͷͲǦͳͷǣʹͲ Policy panel 2:
Šƒ‹”ǣ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ
Non-state armed groups
ڔ
”¡˜‹‰Š‘Ž–ȋȌ
Ž”‹‡‘’’Ǧ‹•Šƒƒȋ
‡”ƒ‡†‡”ƒŽ‹‹•–”›ˆ‘”…‘‘‹…‘‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒ†
‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–Ȍ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
Š‡‹–‡”ƒŽ†›ƒ‹…•‘ˆƒ”‡†‰”‘—’•ƒ†‘’’‘•‹–‹‘‘˜‡‡–•
”‹•–‹ƒ‡ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ŽŽ‡‰‡‘†‘Ȍǡƒ–ŠŽ‡‡—‹‰Šƒ
ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒ”›Žƒ†ȌƬ‡‡‡›‘—”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ•–‡”†ƒȌ
”‘š‹‡•ƒ†ƒ”‡†‘Ǧ•–ƒ–‡ƒ…–‘”•ǣ‘ˆŽ‹…–‘–Š‡…Š‡ƒ’
ƒ„‹‡ƒ”‡›ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹ȌƬ‡‹Ž‹–…Š‡ŽŽȋȌ
‘™†‘‡•‹–‡”Ǧ•–ƒ–‡”‹˜ƒŽ”›‹ˆŽ—‡…‡–Š‡‹–‡”ƒŽ…‘ˆŽ‹…–†›ƒ‹…•ǫ
‡Ž‰‹ƒǦ…ƒȋ‘­‹˜‡”•‹–›•–ƒ„—ŽȌ
ͳͷǣʹͲǦͳͷǣͶͲ Break
ͳͷǣͶͲǦͳ͹ǣͳͲ Roundtable 3:
Predicting armed conflict
‡”ƒŽ†…Š‡‹†‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
‡„ƒ•–‹ƒ…Š—––‡ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
‹‘Šƒ…‡”ȋƒ„‹‡–ˆˆ‹…‡Ȍ
Ž‡š‡–Š—”•–ȋȌ
ͳ͹ǣͳͲǦͳͺǣͶͲ Management committee (MC) meeting [MC members only]
Seminar room
Saturday
ͲͺǣͲͲǦͲͻǣͲͲ Working group administrative units [members only]
Seminar room
ͲͻǣͲͲǦͳͲǣ͵Ͳ Data panel 2:
Data on non-state actors and governance
Šƒ‹”ǣ
ƒ”•Ǧ”‹‡†‡”ƒȋ—”‹…ŠȌ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
’”‡Ǧ˜‹‡™‘ˆ–Š‡”‘Ǧ
‘˜‡”‡–‹Ž‹–‹ƒ•ƒ–ƒ•‡–ȋ
Ȍǡ˜‡”•‹‘ʹ
ƒ„‹‡ƒ”‡›ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹ȌƬ‡‹Ž‹–…Š‡ŽŽȋȌ
‘Ǧ•–ƒ–‡ƒ”‡†‰”‘—’•†ƒ–ƒ•‡–
‡Ž‰‹ƒǦ…ƒȋ‘­‹˜‡”•‹–›•–ƒ„—ŽȌ
Š‡†‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘Ǧ•–ƒ–‡ƒ”‡†ƒ…–‘”•‹…‹˜‹Ž…‘ˆŽ‹…–•Ȃ–Š‡‹•–‘”›‘ˆ”‡†
…–‘”•Ȁ‰”‘—’•ƒ–ƒ•‡–ȋȌ
‹–ƒ
‘Š†‡•ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹Ȍǡ†ƒ…Šƒ”’ˆȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
ƒŠ‡‹ȌƬƒ„‹‡––‘ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
Š‡—ƒŽ‹–›‘ˆ
‘˜‡”‡–š’‡”–—”˜‡›
ƒ”–ƒ‡Ž‹šȋ
‘–Š‡„—”‰‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
ͳͲǣ͵ͲǦͳͲǣͷͲ Break
ͳͲǣͷͲǦͳʹǣʹͲ Academic panel 4: Coercion in international conflict /
Methodological issues
Šƒ‹”ǣ
‡”ƒŽ†…Š‡‹†‡”ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
‹•…—••ƒ–ǣ ‹‘—‰ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ
‡‡˜ƒȌ
”‡•‡–ƒ–‹‘•ǣ
‘‡”…‹‘’”‘˜‘…ƒ–‹‘ƒ†”‡’—–ƒ–‹‘…‘…‡”•
ŽŽƒƒˆ‘‡ȋƒŽ‡‹˜‡”•‹–›ȌƬ‘’Š‹ƒƒ–œȋ’’•ƒŽƒ‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
ƒ…–‹‘•ƒ††‡‘…”ƒ…›
‹‘Žƒ›ƒ”‹‘˜ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆƒŠ‡‹ȌƬŠ—‡Ž‹Ž‹ȋƒŽ‡‹˜‡”•‹–›Ȍ
‡‰‹‘•ƒ–”‹•ǣ”‡†‹…–‹‰…‘ˆŽ‹…–œ‘‡•‹ˆ”‹…ƒ‹•—”‰‡…‹‡•
‡„ƒ•–‹ƒ…Š—––‡ȋ‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‘•–ƒœȌ
•–‹ƒ–‹‰‹–‡”†‡’‡†‡…‡ƒ…”‘•••’ƒ…‡ǡ–‹‡ƒ†‘—–…‘‡•‹„‹ƒ”›…Š‘‹…‡
‘†‡Ž•
—Ž‹ƒ—…Š‡”’ˆ‡‹‰ȋ—”‹…ŠȌǡ›ƒƒ…Š‹ȋ—”‹…ŠȌƬ‹Ž•Ǧ
Š”‹•–‹ƒ‘”ƒȋ—”‹…ŠȌ
ͳʹǣʹͲ
End of the workshop
‘–ƒ…–ǣ
•ƒ„‹‡Ǥ…ƒ”‡›̷—‹ǦƒŠ‡‹Ǥ†‡ Ƭ•‡„ƒ•–‹ƒǤœ‹ƒŒƒ̷†‹‡Ǧ‰†‹Ǥ†‡
Your ddirections to
t the Gerrman Deveelopmentt Institute /
Deutscches Instittut für Enttwicklungsspolitik (D
DIE)
Tulpennfeld 6
D - 531
113 Bonn
Googlee map: htttp://g.co/m
maps/5ehhk3
From B
Bonn Centtral Station (Hauptbbahnhof):
Take tthe U-Bah
hn (Subwaay) U 16 / U 63 orr U 66 tow
wards “Baad Honnef / Bad
Godesbberg” andd get off at
a the stattion “Heu
ussallee / Museumsm
M
meile”. Yo
ou may
buy yoour ticket at vendin
ng machinnes either at the Staation or oon board (choose
ticket type 1b; 2.50 Euro
o, coins only). At Heussallee
H
Station, follow the signs
towardds the Heu
ussallee exxit. After ccoming up
p the escaalator, wallk straightt ahead
for aboout 50 m and turn right onto the footpath
f
towards
t
tthe “Tulpenfeld”
office complex. Follow the signs aacross Tu
ulpenfeld to
t the buuilding of DIE at
Tulpennfeld 6.
ww
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