Coal Demand Outlook in Malaysia

Day 1 Tuesday 6 February 2007
Session 1: Clean Fossil Energy Policy
Coal Demand Outlook in the APEC Region (i)
Speech 2 Malaysia
Coal Demand Outlook in Malaysia
Mr. Norazlan Mohd Ghazali
Special Officer (Energy),
Electricity Supply Division,
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications (MEWC)
Malaysia
Mr. Norazlan Mohd Ghazali
Special Officer (Energy)
Electricity Supply Division
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications (MEWC)
Malaysia
BSc(hon) Electrical and Electronic Engineering --1979 Brighton Polytechnic UK
First 3 years in the Regulatory Department
8 years in the Distribution Department
3 years in the Education and Training Department (HQ)
4 years in the Engineering Department (HQ)
8 years in the Research and Development Company
Jan 2006--- until now with the Government (MEWC)
Kementerian Tenaga, Air Dan Komunikasi
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications
MALAYSIA : ENERGY SECTOR
Coal Development
in Malaysia
Country Report By:
Mr. Noor Azlan Mohd Ghazali
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications
Malaysia
With
Collaboration From Malaysia Energy Centre
in
Hanoi
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
MALAYSIA : OUTLINE
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Introduction
World Coal Reserves
Malaysia Coal Resources
Coal Utilisation In Malaysia
Malaysia’s Energy Requirement
Energy/Coal Projection
Issues & Challenges
Conclusion
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
INTRODUCTION
•
Malaysia continues to enhance its national
competitiveness to face the challenge in the
domestic and global economic arena.
•
Coal has been identified as part of our fuel
mix strategy and forms part of the long-term
development of a sustainable energy supply
for the country
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
WORLD COAL RESERVE
Europe &
Eurasia
18.3%
S & Cent
America
0.7%
Africa
3.4%
Consumption
Total : 2.9Btoe
North America
20.9%
Asia Pacific
56.1%
Reserve
Total : 426.5Btoe
Malaysia
0.2%
Source – BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
MALAYSIA COAL RESOURCES
Production and Reserves of Coal as of 31st December 2005
Reserves
in million tonnes
Production
metric tonnes
Type
Peninsular Malaysia
Sub-bituminous
Sarawak
Coking coal, Semi-anthracite, Anthracite,
Sub-bituminous, Bituminous & Lignite
Sabah
Sub-bituminous, Bituminous
Total
17.00
-
1,228.06
782,107
238.00
-
1,483.06
782,107
Source: Department of Mineral & Geosciences Malaysia
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA
6000
Coal Consumption (1980 – 2005)
5000
TNB Janamanjung Power Station
2100MW
4000
3000
Sultan Salahuddin Power Station
Phase III - 2 x 500MW
2000
Sultan Salahuddin Power Station
Phase II - 2 x 300MW
1000
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Industrial
53
362
513
712
727
740
767
608
991
977
1,086
1,212
1,305
1348
Pow er Stations
0
0
813
957
950
882
964
1,332
1,495
1,994
2,556
4,104
5,327
5541
Source : National Energy Balance 2005 (preliminary)
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA
Energy Input in Power Stations
Hydro
8%
Fuel Oil
2%
Diesel Oil
2%
Fuel Oil
16%
Diesel Oil
2%
Hydro
7%
Coal
30%
Coal
7%
Natural Gas
59%
Natural Gas
67%
1998
2004
2005
Source : National Energy Balance (1998 and 2005)
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
MALAYSIA’s ENERGY REQUIREMENT
The Share of Primary Commercial Energy Supply by Source
50
Percentage
40
2000
2005
30
2010
20
10
Trend of energy supply mix
in Malaysia indicated
¾continuous decrease in
the percentage of oil and
petroleum product share
¾steady increase in coal
and coke demand
0
Oil & Pet. Products
Natural Gas
Coal & Coke
Hydro
Source : Ninth Malaysia Plan (2000 – 2010)
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA
25000
Coal Demand Projection (2010 – 2030)
Jimah Power Station
1500MW
20000
Tanjung Bin Power Station
2100MW
More Coal Power
Stations?
TNB Janamanjung Power Station
2100MW
ktoe
15000
Sultan Salahuddin Power Station
Phase III - 2 x 500MW
10000
Industrial
Power Stations
5000
Projection (power)
Sultan Salahuddin Power Station
Phase II - 2 x 300MW
Projection (non-power)
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
Source : Pusat Tenaga Malaysia
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
PROJECTED PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
250
150
100
Mtoe
KTOE
forecast
historical
200
50
0
1985
1990
2000
2010
Base
2010 High
2020
Base
2020 High
2030
Base
2030 High
Others
3,181
4,935
1,179
1,740
1,740
2,049
2,049
2,372
2,372
Hydro
321
343
599
1,401
1,479
3,241
3,437
3,483
3,483
Gas
3,570
6,115
21,699
21,779
23,269
34,448
42,395
57,716
81,928
Oil
7,658
10,521
24,736
30,874
31,775
49,031
53,664
77,395
90,607
362
542
1,260
5,815
6,184
11,142
17,239
21,445
45,626
Coal
Source : Pusat Tenaga Malaysia
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
PROJECTED FUEL MIX (Power)
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
NRE
Hydro
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005
2010
2020
2030
Source : Pusat Tenaga Malaysia
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
PROJECTED COAL PRICE
Average Delivered Coal Price (2004 USD per tonne)
Source : Energy Information Agency, 2006
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
• The increasing price of fossil fuels i.e. oil, natural gas
and coal will pose a serious challenge to the electricity
utility companies, not only in Malaysia but to the rest of
the world as well
• Energy Information Agency (EIA) projection - coal
price could be at USD35 per tonne in year 2010
• Malaysia would have to spend nearly RM2.4 billion on
coal import in year 2010 alone
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
• Price escalation sensitivity
– The direction/fluctuation of coal band depends on various
factors
• Appreciation of exchange rate
• Shrinking exportable coal stocks
• Occurrence of emergencies (tighten coal demand)
• Coal productivity/production cost
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
• Prime environmental consideration of coal
utilisation is climate change
• Environmental impacts of coal from
– consumption of coal
– discharge of pollutants or disposal of ash
• CCT will play an important role in the uptake
of coal and offer substantial improvement in
environmental performance and efficiency
Integrated Coal Gasification Fuel
Cell System Pilot Plant in Japan
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
•
Key factors in considering Clean Coal Technologies
• the overall economics of plant construction and operation
• the nature and cost of the coal to be used
• the load pattern to be met, and flexibility required. For CHP
units, the pattern of the demand for heat
• the ease with which new units can meet environmental
requirements, and the operational constraints arising
• the thermal efficiency of generation, which impacts directly
on CO2 emissions
•
Deployment of advanced clean coal technologies - High initial
capital costs
•
Lack significant experience with the technologies at commercial
scale
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
CONCLUSION
• Development costs, technology, environmental
impact and security of supply are major challenges
in the utilization of coal in the electricity supply
industry
• Malaysia will continue to import coal
• Ensuring stable/secured supply and quality is
vital
• Coal supplies are from mixed sources and
not over dependent on a single country
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
CONCLUSION
• Adoption of CCT needs to be facilitated through
cooperation and fora from countries with coal
utilisation expertise
• Malaysia will continue to support the ASEAN Plan of
Action for Energy Cooperation which also covers
Sustainable Utilisation of Coal
• Coal will remain in the long-term as the low cost
energy source
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
COAL UTILISATION IN MALAYSIA
Existing and Planned Coal Fired Power Plant (2000-2010)
Source : Tenaga Nasional Berhad
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia
Thank you
Ministry of Energy, Water And Communications
Malaysia
www.ktak.gov.my
Ministry of Energy, Water and Communications, Malaysia