HCMC HOTEL MARKET Past, Present and Future

HCMC HOTEL MARKET
Past, Present and Future
Presented by:
Mauro Gasparotti
Senior Manager Hospitality Service
CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.
2010 Image
Growing – Young Market
¾Tourist arrivals in Vietnam have increased by an average of 10% per year in the past few years
¾Tourist arrivals in HCMC have increased by an average of 12% in the past few years
Tourist Arrival to HCMC
5
Millions
Millions
Tourist Arrival to Vietnam
4
3
4
3
2
Source GOS
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
20
04
20
03
0
20
02
0
20
01
1
20
00
1
20
05
2
Source GOS
¾Tourist arrivals in 2000 were nearly half compared to 2008.
¾ With only 4.2 Mil arrivals in 2008, Vietnam is still a young market in comparisons to in Thailand
(14Mil tourists) or Malaysia (22 Mil tourist).
¾Also HCMC only 2.6 Mil visitors versus Bangkok 10 Mil or Singapore 10Mil.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
2010 Image
Local Market – Business Visitors
¾…….. Where is the real market ?
Millions
“Tourism sector expects to welcome 4.2 Mil
international visitors and 28 Mil domestic
travelers this year” The Saigon Times
2010 Expected Travelers (Vietnam)
40
35
30
25
Local travelers will count for more than 85%
of total travelers.
20
15
10
5
In 2009, despite the economic downturn, the
number of local travelers increase in almost
every area of Vietnam supporting the
occupancy rates in every category.
0
Total Travelers
Local Travelers
Source CBREvietnam
Selected 4-5 star hotels- Purpouse of stay
¾…. Why they travel ?
Approximately 65 % of visitors in 4-5 star
hotel come for business purposes.
Increasing compared to past years.
Where is the future ? ….Vietnamese Business Travelers.
International Travelers
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Business/ MICE
Source CBREvietnam
CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
Leisure
Others
2010 Image
Hotels Supply
¾As of Q2, 2010, in HCMC there are only 52, 3 to 5 star rated
properties, providing about 8,000 rooms.
Room Supply by Grade
No of rooms
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
3-Star
4-Star
5-Star
5-Star Luxury
Source CBREvietnam
Shortage of rooms ? ….maybe
Hotel Market
Total Number of 3-4-5 star hotels
Population(Exc urban areas)
International Visitors (08/09 appx)
Source CBREvietnam, GOS
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
HCMC
52
6 Mil
2.6 Mil
MILAN
248
1.5 Mil
2 Mil
BANGKOK
>300(estimated)
6.3 Mil
10 Mil
2010 Image
Where are the properties located ? Only three main clusters.
Future ? …. Relocation, Relocation, Relocation.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
Hotels location
2010 Image
Hotels ownership
¾… who owns the properties ?
¾HCMC dominated by State Owned companies (Saigon Tourist-Hanoi Tourist …)
¾Also, single high net worth Families will play an important role in the two-three star market.
Hotel Ownership in HCMC
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
5 Star
4-Star
3-Star
Source CBREvietnam
State Owned Entps
Joint Venture
Family
¾More than 50% of the four star market and 30% of the five star market is owned/minority
participation by State Owned Companies
¾Almost 30% of three star is own as a Family Business (Own the land-Build the hotel-Run the hotel)
¾Vietnamese Hotel Chains in rapid expansion: A&M (Family), Liberty Group (Gov Participation),
and Dragon Hotels (Family) ….
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
2010 Image
Economy Market
2-3 Star Hotels by number of rooms
2 Star
3 Star
3%
15%
40%
< 30 rooms
30-50 rooms
> 50 rooms
< 50 rooms
50-80 rooms
50%
47%
> 80 rooms
45%
2-3 Star Hotels by Districts
3 Star
2 Star
4%
4%
12%
4%
6%
District 1
10%
District 3
2%
District 1
District 3
District 10
Tan Binh District
72%
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
District 5
District 7
6%
District 5
70%
Can Gio District
Past and Present
Barriers to entry in Vietnam
¾Limited land available for 4-5 star development in central locations.
¾Land Price/m2 (15,000- 25,000/m2 in central D1 HCMC)
¾Unclear Infrastructures timeline
¾Unclear Compensation systems
¾Hotel business license/Star granting
¾Volatile Performance (complicated to forecast ROI)
¾High Inflation Risk/Currency Risk
¾Volatile constructions costs
¾Shortage of skilled labors
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
Past and Present
Hotel management
¾… who manages the hotels ?
¾International management companies expanding in
Vietnam.
2000
2010
Accor
Accor
Starwood
Starwood
Marriot
Marriot
Hyatt
SwissBelhotel
Pan Pacific
Norfolk
Movenpick
BestWestern
Source CBRE research, South Vietnam only
¾In South Vietnam, in 2000 there were only 3 International Hotel Companies, currently 10
International Management companies are operating hotels in South Vietnam.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
Past and Present
New Operators
¾A number of new international operators are considering
properties/projects in Vietnam :
Carlson, Raffles, Wyndham, Centara, Golden Tulip, Invision, Best
Western, Alila, Pan Pacific, Sol Meliá, Langham Hotels …
¾Operators with presence in Vietnam are planning to launch or
already announced new brands:
Ritz Carlton-LeMeridien-Westin-Courtyard-Pullman-Ibis-Holiday
Inn-Doubletree …
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
Past and Present
New Vietnamese Brand
¾Outstanding Vietnamese companies challenge international
operators. They build/own/manage resorts:
Anamandara, Life Resort…
¾Foreign company entirely dedicated to Vietnam/Cambodia:
Victoria resort, Exotissimo…
¾Also local Vietnamese companies offer Hotel Management :
Celadon, SS Hotel…
¾Other Vietnamese Brand growing fast :
E&M Hotel-Liberty Group-Dragon Hotel…
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
Past and Present
¾Crisis … ? … What Crisis ?
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
Evolving Market (4-5 Star Hotel Performance )
Past and Present
¾Vietnam still volatile market
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
Evolving Market (4-5 Star Hotel Performance )
Past and Present
CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
Evolving Market (4-5 Star Hotel Performance )
Past and Present
Evolving Market (Transactions in Vietnam)
Hotel Transactions (Upscale to Luxury)
$400,000
10
$300,000
8
6
$200,000
4
$100,000
2
0
$0
2005
2006
Number of Transactions
2007
2008
Average Value Per Room
2009
2010(Q1)
*
*Upscale to Luxury segment only
Source CBREvietnam
¾The volume of sales peaked in 2007 followed by 2009.
¾The value per room peaked in 2007(end of) with two major acquisitions in Hanoi.
¾Still limited number of quality properties offered for sale
CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
Past and Present HCMC
Occupancy rates 2008 – 2010
Source CBRE research
CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
Past and Present HCMC
ADR 2008 – 2010
Source CBRE research
CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
Past and Present HCMC
ƒ More direct flights to HCMC and Hanoi (Myanmar, Lao, Beijing,
Istanbul)
• Difficulties in increasing international flights to Danang, Nha
Trang, Dalat, Can Tho and other secondary destinations due to
weak demand
ƒ Hotel renovations
• Movenpick, Grand Hotel, Rex Hotel Retail Arcade
ƒ Occupancy rates increased y-o-y but decrease in room rates due
to the increased competition
ƒ New hotels trending towards business three star
ƒ Increase in the number of international operators seriously
looking to enter (Centara and Hilton)
ƒ Many upgraded two and three star hotels in 2010 but limited new
four or five star hotels until 2012
CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
Present and Future
Where the market is moving?
¾New type of properties are being built or recently completed
•Boutique Hotels
•International Hotels in Industrial Areas
•Convention Centers
•Mixed use complex (office-retail-hotel)
•Condo-hotel and Villa Rental Pools
¾..…or other types are under planning
•Theme Parks
•Casino/Entertainment Hotel complex
•Limited service hotel
•Island resorts
¾… or same properties but different ownership structures
•Rental Pools
•Timeshare
CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
Present and Future
As of 10 Dec-2010
Category
Name Project
Address
New supply
District
Supply (Units)
Year of Completion
(estimated)
Project Status
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2013
2014
Sup completed
Under construction
Foundations
Under construction
Developemtn site-Land testing
mass piling
Demolition ex building
site clearance
Planning Stage
Planning Stage
Planning Stage
Planning Stage
Planning stage
Land Clearance
Planning stage
2010
2011
2012
tba
Superstructure Completed
under construction
under construction
Planning stage
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
completed, not yet inaugurated
furbishing
furbishing
Topping out
Topping out
Topping out
under construction
under construction
under construction
mass piling
site clearance
2,732
5-STAR
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Nikko Saigon
Royal Residences Resort
Le Meridien Saigon
Time Square
Pullman Hotel
Saigon Airport Plaza
Vinperal Hotel
SG Convention and Exhibition Centre
Gemadept
Sabeco
CT Five star hotel
Berjaya
Majestic (Extension)
Boutique Hotel (next to vincom)
M&C
Nguyen Van Cu
Phu My Hung
3C, Ton Duc Thang
22-36 Nguyen Hue
148 Tran Hung Dao
1 Bach Dang
Dong Koi
Phu My Hung
Le Loi
Hai Ba Trung
tba
tba
1 Dong Khoi
Hai Ba Trung
tba
16
17
18
19
Saigon Givral (Star City)
Grand (Extension)
Novotel Saigon Centre
Saigon Pearl
NKKN
8 Dong Khoi
167 Hai Ba Trung
tba
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
Elegant Hotel
Nhat Ha Hotel
Au Lac Hotel
22 Thi Sach
175/4 Pham Ngu Lao
125-133 Ly Tu Trong
Moonlight &Spa Hotel
A Au Hotel
IBIS Saigon South
189-191 Ly Tu Trong
IBIS Ben Thanh Palace
122F Bui Thi Xuan
Thi Sach - Cao Ba Quat
87-91 Ho Tung Mau
22 Thi Sach
175/4 Pham Ngu Lao
125-133 Ly Tu Trong
180-184 Nguyen Trai
32 Thu Khoa Huan
Phu My Hung
189-191 Ly Tu Trong
Nguyen Van Cu
1
7
1
1
1
Tan Binh
1
7
1
1
1
10
1
1
2
335
15
357
231
350
239
tba
1000
550
350
tba
tba
205
Tba
tba
631
4-STAR
Phu Nhuan
1
1
BT
209
170
252
tba
1,300
3-STAR
TOTAL 3-5 STAR (29 projects)
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
7
1
1
92
150
76
180
84
40
48
42
170
80
338
4,663
Source CBREvietnam
Approximately 4663 rooms will enter the market in the 4-5 star segment, indicating a roughly 15%
increase per year. The three star Market will expect 11 new project in the next two-three years.
CB Richard Ellis | Page 20
Present and Future
1. 164 Dong Khoi
2. Lim Tower
3. Le Meridien Hotel
4. Sabeco Tower (Hotel)
5. Vietcombank Tower
6. Times Square (Hotel)
7. CT Plaza on LTT
8. Savico
9. Golden Tower NKKN/ Ham Nghi
10. Saigon Plaza
11. Pythis Tower
12. Grand Hotel (expansion)
13. Majestic Hotel (expansion)
14. Pullman Hotel (Metropole)
15. Saigon M&C Tower
16. BIDV Tower
17. Diep Bach Duong Boutique Hotel
18. SATRA Tax Centre
19. Eden A
20. Saigon Centre ( phase II)
21. SJC Tower
22. Gemadept Plaza(Hotel)
23. Ben Thanh Twin Towers
24. VietinBank
25. River Tower
26. Nikko Royal Hotel
27. CT Group site on NDC
28. Sunny Tower
29. Ngan Binh
30. Novotel Saigon Centre
CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
More concrete will be poured in 2011 than in the last 2000
years
Present and Future
Developers/Consumers evolving
Are Developers adapting to market changes ?
In some cases yes…. In other cases no ….
Do they need to change to “international standard” ?
In some cases yes…. In other cases no ….
In some areas still 90% is a Vietnamese market (Pleiku-Dalat)
In some segment 90% is an International market (4-5 Star City hotel)
Changes in the market
Past
Vietnamese Clients looking for "value" ( high price awarness)
International Clients more Demanding
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
Future
International Clients looking for value
Move from 5 to 4-3-2 star
Vietnamese Client more Demanding
Move from 2-3 to 4-5 star
Present and Future
This rapid progress has lead to
Re branding- Re segmenting
Confused Segmentation/Clients/Categories
4 star pricing more than 5 (in some cases)
3 star pricing more than 4 (in some cases)
3 star offering more facilities than 4 star( in some cases)
What will happen ?
¾Re-branding
¾Re-segmentation
¾Room Rates still not in defined
¾Service and Facilities developed as addition value
… What makes a “five star” in Vietnam .. ? …Service … ?... Italian marble on the lobby ?
CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
The Future
Market changing
New Reservation systems
¾Agoda.vn ( in Vietnamese !!) - Hotel.com- Wotif.com¾Hotel Web sites (two-three-four star)
New Marketing systems (Email)- Magazine
¾Newsletter from Sofitel Saigon.
¾Saigon times-Time Out …. Local magazines …
¾Furama Resort-Sheraton HCMC on Star World Channel …
New airlines
¾Air Asia investment in VietJet
¾Charter Jets (China, Russia, Singapore and Taiwan)
New Information Sharing in and about Vietnam
¾Trip advisor, Travel blogs…
Consumers evolving
CB Richard Ellis | Page 24
more choices- more information
more demanding
The Future
Improvement in Service in F&B
Where is the market going ?
Existing Hotel
• Breakfast from “Pho only ” to “Pho and Lavazza ”
Improvement F&B alliances
• Liberty Group with Highland coffee in Pham Ngu Lao.
Improvement in facilities
• From “Massage room” to “S.p.a treatments”
• From VTV1 to Bloomberg television
• From General Service to Tailored Service (Russian or Korean Menu)
Under Construction
Improvement in Design- Efficiency
Improvement in Management ( is your job to build or to managed hotel ???)
New Marketing Strategies (example a Pre-opening Process)
Plan, plan , plan … before you act …
•
•
•
•
Who will it be your Client ?
Who will be your Management Company ?
What return do you target ?
What is you exist strategy ?
CB Richard Ellis | Page 25
The Future
STAY COMPETITIVE
–
BE UNIQUE
Differentiate design
Improve management
Build your Brand
Additional Amenities
Different Marketing
Additional Services
Identified Segmentation
..Choose the right operator – Choose the right brand …
….Plan before you build …
CB Richard Ellis | Page 26
CBRE Vietnam – Hospitality Services
•Valuation and Advisory services
•Market Studies
•Feasibility Studies
•Investment
•Operator Finding
•Management consultancy
•Project management
CB Richard Ellis | Page 27
KEY CONTACTS
Mauro Gasparotti
Head of Hotel Services
M 84 903 028 722
Email: [email protected]
CB Richard Ellis | Page 28
©2009 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd.