MAREMEX-MANTARO

Extreme meteorological events and risk management in the central
Andes of Peru as an adaptation measure to climate change
MAREMEX-MANTARO
A. Martínez, K. Takahashi, Y. Silva, G. Trasmonte, J.C. Gómez, E. Núñez, R. Zubieta,
K. Latinez, J. Arroyo, M. Poma, L. Flores, L. Ocampo, S. Pérez, M. Saavedra,
D. Mamani, F. Blanco, J. Sulca, J. Anicama, L. Céspedes, S. Chávez, M. Moreno
Mantaro river basin
Mantaro
valley
• Located in the central Andes of Peru.
• Produces a large fraction of the
electrocity of Peru with hydroelectric
plants.
• Has a population over 700,000
• The Mantaro valley is a major
agricultural region and is the main
supplier of Lima
Previous work by IGP in the Mantaro basin
Integrated Local
Assessment of climate
change in the Mantaro
basin (2003-2005)
Seasonal climate forecasts for
agricultural applications in the
Mantaro valley
(2007-2010)
Why extreme meteorological events?
Intense rainfall
Droughts
Freezes / frosts
Urban
Loss in infrastructure
(bridges, roads,
housing); disruption
to potable water
supply; loss in human
lives
Interrupted potable
water supply;
reduction in
hydroelectric
production
Respiratory diseases,
especially in children
and old people
Rural
Loss of agricultural
soil and seeds;
impacts on roads and
channels; erosion
Conflicts over
water; reduced
crop yields;
increase in plant
diseases and
plagues
Respiratory diseases,
especially in children
and old people;
reduction in crop
yields and milk and
meat production
Setting
Adapted from Martinez (2007)
MAREMEX Mantaro (2009-2012)
Objective
Strengthen the capacity for risk management associated with extreme meteorological events
(droughts, frosts/freezes, intense rainfall) to reduce the vulnerability and improve the capacity
of the urban and rural population in the Mantaro valley to adapt to changes in climate.
RESEARCH - ACTION
Strengthen
research in
atmospheric
sciences in the
region
Assessment of current
vulnerability, preventive
actions by stakeholders,
and participative
elaboratioin of local risk
management plans
Institucional
strengthening,
sensibilization and
information
dissemination
Funded by International Development Research Centre of Canada
Study region
Harvest in the valley
Rural and urban settings in the Achamayo,
Shullcas and Cunas sub-basins
Achamayo
Shullcas
Cunas
Huancayo
Prioritized sectors and cross-cutting themes
DROUGHT
Sector
FROSTS / FREEZES
Cross-cutting
theme 1
Health
Agriculture Water resources
Cattle raising
INTENSE RAINFALL
Cross-cutting Cross-cutting
theme 2
theme 3
Gender
Education
Organization of the study
Physical characterization
Drought
Characterization of
impacts
Frosts/
freezes
Intense
rainfall
Population response
Response of decision
makers
Adaptation strategies
Use of the
information
for risk
management
Clear
night
Cloudy
night
Partly
cloudy
night
Downward solar radiation
Downward longwave radiation
Physical science research: Characterization and modeling of
radiative frosts
Observations in July 2010
300
250
230
-6°C
Miguel Saavedra (UNMSM),
K. Takahashi, G. Trasmonte
(IGP)
Radiative frosts are frequent in winter and
particularly damaging to agriculture in
summer. Cloud cover plays a key role
through longwave radiation.
This study combines observations and
modeling (radiative transfer+heat
conduction) to understand the physical
mechanisms involved.
C
1°C
-3°C
Simulation of diurnal cycle in subsurface temperature
Physical science research: Atmospheric circulation associated
with dry spells (“veranillos”)
700 hPa wind anomaly composite
Juan Carlos Sulca (UNMSM),
Y. Silva, K. Takahashi, K.
Mosquera (IGP)
“Veranillos” can be harmful to crops
during the growing season (summer).
200 hPa wind anomaly composite
“Veranillos” are associated with
mid-level easterly anomalies,
apparently with a tropical origin
Physical science research: Characterization of severe storms in the
Mantaro valley
Lightning density
(Jan.2010)
calculated from
WWLLN data
Steven Chavez (PUCP),
K. Takahashi (IGP)
Severe storms are highly localized and
remote sensing techniques are
necessary to study them. Traditional
rainfall estimations based on passive
satellite sensors are not effective in
the Andes.
This study is using the TRMM PR
(precipitation radar), the WWLLN
lightning detection network, rain gauge
data, news reports, and satellite
imagery to characterize the structure
of severe storms in the Mantaro valley.
Sample of TRMM PR surface rain data
Physical science research: Assessment of areas with flood risk
Ricardo Zubieta
(IGP)
Topographic
information and
discharge statistics
can be used to
determine floodprone areas for risk
management
Extrapolación de caudales en función al tiempo de retorno
Gumbel
Return periods según
of Mantaro
discharge
1000
Q(m3/s)
800
600
y = 120.6Ln(x) + 384.8
R2 = 0.9503
400
200
0
0
5
10
15
20
TR (años)
25
30
35
Physical science research: High resolution modeling of the
Mantaro basin circulation
Dalma Mamani (UNMSM),
Y. Silva, K. Takahashi (IGP)
The main objetive of this research is to
validate a high resolution model using the
available data and use the model to
study the physical processes that affect
climate in the region.
The model has successfully reproduced
the convergence zone in the center of
the basin, associated with flow around
the Huaytapallana cordillera.
High resolution (3 km)MM5 simulation of surface wind in the
Mantaro basin and topography (shaded, m)
Physical science research: Geological assessment of land
slides in the Shullcas sub-basin
Luis Ocampo (IGP)
Evidence of debris flow reveal
that land slides have occurred
in the quaternary, indicating
that this is a geodynamically
active basin and presents the
conditions
to
continue
experiencing them.
Alluvial fan in the Shullcas basin
Research on vulnerability: Health impacts of frosts in the Achamayo
sub-basin
Lidia Enciso (UNMSM),
Y. Silva, G. Trasmonte (IGP)
Acute respiratory disease cases in children between 1 and 4 years old in the
Concepcion area.
Boy with a cold. The red skin
on his face is due to
exposure to low temperature.
Frosts generally occur between
April and August, but most of the
children get sick in May.
In the past few years, the number
of cases more cases, particularly of
pneumonia, mostly in children
between 1 and 4 years old.
Children working the land,
helping their parents in the
harvest of mashwa in San
Juan de Jarpas, Cunas subbasin
Research in vulnerability: Impact of intense rainfall on fish farms
Jahir Anicama (UNMSM),
Y. Silva, K. Takahashi (IGP)
A trout farm in Achamayo sub-basin
Trout farm extremely affected by flooding in February
2010.
The frequency and severity of fish
diseases depend on environmental
factors (location, climate, salinity,
water temperature, dissolved oxygen,
etc), as well as on biological factors
such as age, genetics, nutrition and
stress.
In this work, fish samples will be taken
before and after rainfall events, to
assess the impact of disturbed water
conditions on their health, with
emphasis on the presence of Yersinia
ruckeri .
Research in vulnerability: Database of news of impacts of
extreme events
Example of news report
Marco Poma (IGP)
Many extreme events have strong spatial variability and are not
detected by conventional observing networks. News report can help
providing historical information that can be cross-referenced with
observational data and used to assess the impacts of the events. The
news data is being collected from the newspaper Diario Correo of
Huancayo for the period 1962-2010
Database entry
Fecha
04-Ago-67
Nu Pag
1
Título de
Artículo
¡2.3 Grados
Sobre Cero!
Autor
Categoría
Heladas
Tema
Anomalías
Climáticas
Lugar
Huancayo
Síntesis
Los termómetros marcaron 2.3 grados sobre cero,
a la hora de mayor frio.
Normalmente en esta época del año a la hora de mayor
calor la temperatura se eleva a 18 y 20 grados.
Estas cifras fueron proporcionadas por el Departamento
de Meteorología del Instituto Geofísico de Huayao.
Elias Melgar, observador de eso Centro de Estudios
Cientificos dijo que Huayao habra Iniciado un inmediato
estudio del fenómeno que no tiene precedentes en la
historia de la región.
Research in physical science and adaptation:
Mini meteorological network
Inexpensive termometers and rain gauges will be
distributed among the population to create a
dense sub-basin scale meteorological network.
This will have the following objectives:
a) Make meteorological variables part of the way
the population perceive their environment.
b) Provide necessary data to study extreme
meteorological events.
c) Capacitation on meteorological data and their
measurement.
Potential locations:
i) Community centers
ii) Health centers
iii) Educational facilities
iv) Fish farms.
Research on vulnerability and adaptation: Collection of information
on perceptions and traditional knowledge
a) Rural setting: Participative workshops in Quilcas (Achamayo sub-basin), Acopalca (Shullcas subbasin) and San Juan de Jarpa (Cunas sub-basin)
b) Urban setting: Participative workshops in Concepción (Achamayo sub-basin), Huancayo
(Shullcas sub-basin) and Chupaca (Cunas sub-basin)
Research in vulnerability and adaptation: Other studies
1. Assessment of susceptibility to land slides in the central Mantaro basin (Franklin Blanco and J.
C. Gomez).
2.
Physical vulnerability of selected settlements (Luis Alberto Céspedes).
3. Agrostological (natural grass) analysis in the Shullcas, Cunas and Achamayo sub-basins
(Raúl Yaranga).
4. Risk management and climate change in the Mantaro valley: Regional policies and
descentralization. (Alejandra Martínez).
5.
Extreme rainfall and landslides (Marco Moreno Tapia).
6.
Impacts of extreme meteorological events on cattle (Enma Núñez).
7.
Perception of changes in climate by urban and rural population (Alejandra Martínez).
Risk management and decision making
PREVENTION
DISASTER
RISK
MANAGEMENT
ATTENTION
Source: Instituto Nacional de Defensa Civil
Products and information dissemination
Levels of dissemination
a) Decision makers/authorities
b) Public and private institutions and
general population
c) Scientific community
Mechanisms
a)
b)
c)
Presentations in workshops and like
Publications for dissemination
Peer-reviewed scientific articles
[email protected]