MTRiP Template

Vail Town Council & Vail Economic
Advisory Council Update
June 21, 2016
Presented by Ralf Garrison
INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Market Update
3. History: Winter 2015/16
4. Outlook: Summer 2016
5. What you ought to know
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MTNWEST
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Aspen
Avon, Colorado
Big Sky
Breckenridge
Beaver Creek
Copper
Gunnison/Crested Butte
Keystone
Mt Bachelor
Mammoth Lakes
Jackson Hole
North Lake Tahoe
Snowmass
Steamboat
Park City Area
Summit County, CO
Telluride
Vail
Winter Park
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SUN&BEACH
Hilton Head
Florida Keys
Golden Isles
Experience Kissimmee
Visit Florida
ASSOCIATIONS&CORPORATIONS
Onsite Property Management Association
Colorado Hotel & Lodging Association
Vail Resorts - Lodging
Destination Hotels & Resorts–Mtn Collection
Vail Property Participation
Reports with data as of May 31, 2016
include:
25 properties representing 2,456 units
62% of total community census
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25 Data Submitting Properties
Antlers at Vail
Arrabelle at Vail Square
Christiania Lodge &
Christiania Condos
Destination Resorts Vail
Vail Cascade Condos
Vail Cascade Resort & Spa
Evergreen Lodge at Vail
Four Seasons Resort Vail
Lion Square Lodge
Lodge at Lionshead
Lodge Tower
Manor Vail Resort
Montaneros
Sitzmark Lodge
Sonnenalp Resort of Vail
The Sebastian
The Wren
Tivoli Lodge
Vail Mountain Lodge
Vail Racquet Club
Vail Spa Condominiums
Vail Marriott
The Lodge at Vail
The Ritz-Carlton Residences
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INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Market Update
3. History: Winter 2015/16
4. Outlook: Summer 2016
5. What you ought to know
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Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment
January ‘06 – Apr ‘16
15.0%
14.0%
200.0
17,773.6
180.0
13.0%
12.0%
160.0
11.0%
140.0
Dow Jones
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
120.0
94.2
100.0
7.0%
Confidence
6.0%
80.0
5.0%
4.0%
5.0%60.0
3.0%
40.0
Unemployment
2.0%
20.0
1.0%
0.0%
0.0
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Market Update
Jan 2014: $1 CAD = $0.94 USD
Jan 2014: €1 EUR = $1.36 USD
June 2016: $1 CAD = $0.77 USD
June 2016: €1 EUR = $1.13 USD
+18%
+17%
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Economic Overview
• Economic Tide: Softer and uncertain. Election adds wildcard
• Battle for the Beds:
– More Demand than Supply, adds to price, drives shift to highest/best use = short term
– Rent-By-Owner Channels come into mainstream
– Regulatory pushback is growing, sometimes potentially over-reaching
• Attractions: Shifting, Slowly but Surely
– Legacy attractions (Ski/Golf, etc.): Flat at Best
– Social/Group Based Exercise - Less competitive/timed events, more socially based
– Increased influence of Post – Title 9, and more X Chromosome influenced
• Consumer Shifts in 2016: More…
• Leisure than Business (Air) Travel
• Millennials than Boomers
• Women than Men: Running events example
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INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Market Update
3. Review: Winter 2015/16
4. Outlook: Summer 2016
5. What you ought to know
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Occupancy Winter 15/16
Data as of April 30, 2016
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ADR Winter 15/16
Data as of April 30, 2016
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RevPAR Winter 15/16
Data as of April 30, 2016
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Vail Seasonal Totals by Month
Occupancy
ADR
RevPAR
Nov '15
-6%
+4%
-2%
Dec '15
-5%
+5%
0%
Jan '16
-2%
+5%
+3%
Feb '16
-2%
+6%
+3%
Mar '16
0%
+5%
+4%
Apr '16
-1%
+5%
+3%
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Vail Ski Season 15/16 Sales Tax
Year over Year % Change
Retail
- 2.52 %
Lodging & Property Mgmt
+ 3.18 %
Food and Beverage
+ 0.12 %
Other
+ 3.57%
TOTAL + 0.69%
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Vail MDC
As of April 30, 2016
16
30%
20%
10%
0%
Occupancy
Vail Daily Occupancy
Winter 2015/16
Data as of November 30, 2015
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
30-Apr-16
23-Apr-16
16-Apr-16
9-Apr-16
2-Apr-16
26-Mar-16
19-Mar-16
12-Mar-16
5-Mar-16
27-Feb-16
20-Feb-16
13-Feb-16
6-Feb-16
30-Jan-16
23-Jan-16
16-Jan-16
9-Jan-16
2-Jan-16
26-Dec-15
19-Dec-15
12-Dec-15
5-Dec-15
28-Nov-15
21-Nov-15
14-Nov-15
7-Nov-15
31-Oct-15
Date(Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
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Vail Daily Occupancy
Winter 2015/16
Data as of April 30, 2016
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Occupancy
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 4/30 (22-24 properties)
2015/16 - as of 4/30/16 (24 properties included)
2014/15 - as of 4/30/15 (22 properties included)
2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included)
-30%
-40%
-50%
30-Apr-16
23-Apr-16
16-Apr-16
9-Apr-16
2-Apr-16
26-Mar-16
19-Mar-16
12-Mar-16
5-Mar-16
27-Feb-16
20-Feb-16
13-Feb-16
6-Feb-16
30-Jan-16
23-Jan-16
16-Jan-16
9-Jan-16
2-Jan-16
26-Dec-15
19-Dec-15
12-Dec-15
5-Dec-15
28-Nov-15
21-Nov-15
14-Nov-15
7-Nov-15
31-Oct-15
Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays)
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Vail vs. Industry Winter
Performance 2007/08 – 2015/16
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08
Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08
Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08
Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08
Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08
26.7%
24.3%
20.0%
15.6%
11.3%
10.0%
3.4%
-2.1%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
'07/08
'08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 15/16 vs '07/08
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50
46
46.7
48
52.2
52.1
52.5
56.2
56.9
57.4
56.9
57.1
57.6
57.3
60.5
60.5
59.8
58.9
62
53.9
55.1
54.4
54.1
54.0
54.6
56
53.6
52.7
54
54.0
15/16 Colorado
Skier Visits:
7.4 million
51.0
50.8
52
53.3
58
53.9
53.7
60
50.0
51.9
Skier/Snowboarder Visits (millions)
Estimated Skier Visits
85/86-15/16 and 4 Year Moving Average
2015/16
53.9
+.56%
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INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Market Update
3. History: Winter 2015/16
4. Outlook: Summer 2016
5. What you ought to know
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Summer 2016 Business On the
Books as % of 2015 total
as of 5/31/16
63.4%
2016 Nights
71.4%
2016 Revenue
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Occupancy Summer 2016
Data as of May 31, 2016
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ADR Summer 2016
Data as of May 31, 2016
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RevPAR Summer 2016
Data as of May 31, 2016
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Vail MDC
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Vail Daily Occupancy
As of May 31, 2016
Summer 2016
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Vail vs. Industry Summer
Performance 2007 – 2015
Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007
Industry % Change ADR vs 2007
Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007
Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007
Vail % Change ADR vs 2007
Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007
70.0%
68.4%
60.0%
50.0%
44.3%
40.0%
35.3%
27.6%
22.0%
12.8%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
2007
'08 vs '07
'09 vs '07
'10 vs '07
'11 vs '07
'12 vs '07
13 VS '07
14 VS '07
15 VS '07
INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Market Update
3. History: Winter 2015/16
4. Outlook: Summer 2016
5. What you ought to know
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Destination Dashboard
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Group vs FIT
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