Morningstar Investment Conference

Transcription

Fri., June 25 Edition
Morningstar Investment Conference
Solutions ‘Everyone Can Live With’
Putnam’s Reynolds shares his insights on the most-pressing issues facing the United States and investors.
By Mike Brennan
Bob Reynolds’ wide-ranging conversation
with Morningstar’s Don Phillips Thursday
evening covered 401(k)s, potential solutions
to the United States’ obligations to retirees,
and pending reform mandates from legislators.
In Defense of the 401(k)
A veteran of the 401(k) platform, Reynolds
said the 401(k)’s greatest attribute is its adaptability, a trait he expects will prove critics
wrong. “It’s up to industry leaders to take a
step forward and say, ‘Wait a minute. The
system’s not broken; it can be fixed,’ ” he said.
Retiree Dilemma: “Easy” Fix
Expanding the number of Americans investing
in 401(k)s would help the country solve
another major dilemma: How to fulfill obligations to retirees. Calling the looming
reckoning with Social Security and Medicare
“an easy problem to fix,” Reynolds said he
expects major reforms to arrive next year. He
said raising the minimum entitlement age
Bob Reynolds
and imposing a means test to ensure the system
targets the neediest seniors are among
the solutions legislators should weigh heavily.
“I think it’d be great for the market, I think it’d
be great for the country, and I think it’d be
great to show the world that we can handle
our own problems,” Reynolds said.
said, regulators run the risk of overreacting.
When that happens, Reynolds said, “the
things that really caused the problems aren’t
being addressed.”
Reynolds said he expects legislators to create
a plan that will benefit the industry. “I do
think we’re getting to a financial-reform bill
everyone can live with,” he said.
Repairing and Reforming
Mike Brennan is an editor with Morningstar.
Reynolds said he is eager for learn the details
of the financial-reform package. However, he
Conference Highlights:
Also in This Issue:
Charting a New Path Wednesday’s events detailed many of the possible
scenarios facing investors and reeling economies.
3
McNabb Urges Restoration of Trust Vanguard CEO applauds looming legislation,
but says the industry must dedicate itself to
earning back trust.
4
Master of Her Universe
An interview with Fidelity’s Christine McConnell.
Panel: Dividends Beat Share Repurchases
The debate over whether firms should use
cash surpluses on dividends or share
repurchases pits long-term investors against
short-term investors.
7
12
Question of the Day
4
Friday Conference Agenda 7
The Irrational Lizard Brain 11
Where to Go This Weekend Entertainment recommendations from
Time Out Chicago
18
A Focus on Alternative Strategies in Mutual Funds
Forward Thinking
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0610_123481_Mstar_conf_ad_FIN.indd 1
6/3/10 4:04 PM
Morningstar Investment Conference 2010
Charting a New Path
Wednesday’s events detailed many of the possible scenarios facing
investors and reeling economies.
3
of artificial industry jargon to simply to learn
where their money is going. Fund companies,
he argued, can and should present their
financial information in clear, standard terms
(cost of goods sold, cost of sales, and overhead), as corporations do.
By Mike Brennan
The first day of the 2010 Morningstar Investment Conference saw speakers and panels
weigh in on a wide variety of issues investors
face as governments and financial professionals clamber for solutions to the ongoing
global economic turmoil.
nearly 100 years to do it and had a major tailwind in the form of the Industrial Revolution.
The second option, he said, is technically possible but would accomplish very little. He
cited the country’s $50 trillion in credit-market
debt and $50 trillion in unfunded promises,
“Mutual fund accounting isn’t set by accounts
or investors. It’s set by lawyers,” Phillips
said. “The first thing you’re told is, ‘This is the
12b-1 fee.’ What is 12b-1? It doesn’t
mean anything.
“Some investment companies counter and say,
‘Look, you know the overall amount. Isn’t
Gundlach Looks Ahead
DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Gundlach used Wednesday’s keynote session to explore the potentially devastating imbalance between the
United States’ gross domestic product and its
projected outlays. While some analysts have
suggested solutions such as increasing GDP
growth, lowering interest in government
debt, or a transfer of foreign capital, Gundlach
argued that each of these is either unrealistic
or has already been done. Instead, he said,
the country must prepare for fundamental and
wholesale legislative solutions.
Jeffrey Gundlach
both of which contribute to a debt sum that
would result in massive inflation were it
addressed by printing more money.
“Policy change must happen,” he said.
Gundlach laid out three possibilities for relief:
1. Increase taxes or cut spending.
2. Print more money.
3. Default.
At least part of the first option, he said,
is inevitable.“I think you have a tax increase
coming and a radical policy shock that will
affect investments and the economy,” he
said. A country digging itself out of a financial
hole with spending cuts, however, is nearly
unprecedented in world history. The British
pulled it off in the 19th century, but required
2010 Conference Daily
Editor
Ryun Patterson
Contributors
Christine Benz, Mike Brennan, Dan Culloton,
Karen Dolan, Jennifer Gierat, David Kihara, Helen
Modly, Preethi Parmar, Bill Winterberg
Designers
Chris Cantore, Meghan Tweedie
Publisher
Jill Jacobs-Baar
While pointing out that the U.S. is not alone
in its ever-increasing inability to pay its debts,
the U.S. is the only one that has not ever
defaulted on its loans in the past. That streak,
he said, will soon end.
“I think ultimately some type of polite default,
at minimum, has to happen,” Gundlach
said. “You cannot pay all of these entitlements
as they currently stand.
“It won’t be called a default; it’ll be called
raising the age or taxing the benefits.
We could even contemplate a maturity tax
on government bonds to foreign creditors
down the line.”
Reform Wish List
With major financial reform looming in
Washington, D.C., senior members of
Morningstar’s fund-research team debated
the potential for legislative reform to
stabilize the investment environment and
more closely align the interests of financial professionals with those of investors.
Don Phillips, Morningstar’s president of fund
research, said there’s no reason fund investors
should be forced to navigate a dense jungle
that enough? Why do you need to know these
peculiars and particulars?’ I come back and
say, ‘What if you were thinking of investing in
a pharmaceutical company, and you were
looking at two of them, and one was spending
a huge amount on R&D and the next generation
of drugs, and the other was spending a
huge amount just promoting the current product
lineup? You’d evaluate the prospects of
those firms very differently.”
Director of ETF analysis Scott Burns said this
round of financial reform is an opportunity
for lawmakers to illuminate the “dark matter”—
arcane derivatives whose composition
is a mystery to any outsider (including other
financial professionals)—increasingly
populating fund lineups.
“We have some very large funds out there
that show up … as 98% cash, because
everything is derivatives,” he said. “I think
there needs to be some standardization
of what’s in this dark matter.”
Meanwhile, director of mutual fund research
Russel Kinnel cautioned against an SEC
proposal to mandate name changes to
target-date funds. If passed, the item would
require such funds to include in their names
the amount of equity exposure they will
have when the investor reaches retirement.
Continued on Page 15
McNabb Urges Restoration of Trust
Vanguard CEO applauds looming legislation, but says the industry must
dedicate itself to earning back trust.
By Mike Brennan
Vanguard president and CEO Bill McNabb
dedicated Thursday’s keynote presentation
to urging attendees of the 2010 Morningstar
Investment Conference to consider the
many reasons that restoring trust—among
and between regulators, financial professionals, and investors—is critical to
renewing economic prosperity.
He said mutual funds and ETFs are models of
transparency compared with other investment
vehicles, and the rest of the industry should
follow suit. Still, he said, fund managers
should prioritize candor when communicating
with investors. “It’s tempting, when things
are going bad, to put your head in the sand,”
4
McNabb also endorsed financial reform, which
is currently being hashed out in Washington,
D.C., as a way to make the economic
and financial machinery more trustworthy for
everyone involved with it. Specifically, a
systemic risk council tasked with monitoring
financial markets, a proposal being
weighed in the House of Representatives and
Senate, will benefit the industry because
it will improve its credibility among investors,
according to McNabb.
“There’s a lot of pushing back and forth around
whether any change is necessary,” he
said. “We think there are basics in the finan-
“Trust is absolutely essential in terms of
how the currency system works,
in how banking works, how the capital
markets work,” McNabb said.
Admonishing many of the financial industry’s
practices, standards, and opaque investment vehicles blamed for contributing to the
economic downswing, McNabb called for
vastly improved simplicity, transparency, and
candor. Greater simplicity, he said, will
help keep financial professionals from moving
investors’ money into vehicles they
don’t understand.
“If we can’t explain an investment to one of our
clients in five minutes or less, we probably
shouldn’t be putting that investment into their
portfolio,” he said.
Question of the Day
How confident are you that your bondfund managers have fully explained the
risks they take?
Bill McNabb
he said of investment advisors charged
with accounting for their decisions.
“But it’s really vital that we collectively step
up and tell the story like it is.”
Lydia Kiebzak
Madison Inv. Advisors
Madison, WI
I work for a bond manager. I’m
pretty confident we understand
our risks. The portfolio is transparent
and easy to understand.
By Preethi Parmar
Sandra Eve
Shine Investment
Advisory Services
Denver, CO
I’m confident that we have good
managers. I think we’re
pretty diligent. … We go to
strategic managers.
Sandra Metoyer
Schwab
Austin, TX
I’m not very confident about
the risks.
cial-services regulatory reform that need to
occur if we are going to restore the trust that
our investors deserve.”
Karen Barnes
Wells Fargo Advisors
Jackson, MI
I feel very nervous about fixed
income and bond offerings
right now. Better be careful who
your money manager is
going forward.
Wendy Stojadinovic
MBO Cleary Advisors
Milwaukee, WI
It’s hard to say. I’ve looked at what
their holdings are and how they
trade. I understand it myself, but most
aren’t upfront about the risk they
take. Do your homework. Make sure
they have appropriate risk.
Sean Bjork
Bjork Asset
Management
Chicago, IL
If you read prospectuses, it’s
pretty scary. We are totally in
cash right now.
Kathleen Piaggesi
K/A/P Planning
Scarsdale, NY
I have all the confidence in
the world that they’re telling me
what they’re doing.
Jay Vaidya
H.W. Financial Advisors
Cleveland, OH
We do a lot of our own research,
and we’re very diligent in
research. We’re very confident
with the risks involved.
Get the current thinking of
our senior market strategists.
putnam.com
Robert Reynolds
Chief Executive Officer
Innovation.
Jeff combines absolute and relative
Rob applies institutional
return strategies in a single portfolio
strategies to manage risk
designed to moderate the risks for
and deliver returns for
retirement investors.
individual investors.
At Putnam, these are some of the
innovations we’re applying to the
challenges and opportunities that
face today’s investors. We’re also
lowering the cost of investing in
our funds, and pursuing superior
performance to shareholders.
That’s innovation you can use.
This is Putnam today.
Jeff Knight, CFA
Portfolio Manager
Putnam RetirementReady® Funds,
Putnam Absolute Return
500 and 700 Funds
Rob Bloemker
Portfolio Manager
Putnam Income Fund,
Putnam Absolute Return
100 and 300 Funds
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product, call Putnam Dealer Marketing Services at 1-800-354-4000. Your clients should read the prospectus carefully
before investing.
Putnam Retail Management
261689 Morningstar Conf Ad Innovation.indd 1
Created by Putnam Investments Design Studio • Slug date: Thu Jun 3 15:17:06 EDT 2010
Publication name: 2010 Morningstar Investment Conference Daily
Run date: 2010
6/3/10 3:18 PM
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A word about risks: Investing in securities
rated below investment-grade carries a high
level of credit and market risk. Investing in
convertibles involves the risk that the securities must be converted before it is optimal.
Derivative securities involve costs as well as
market, credit, liquidity, management and
interest rate risks, and the risk that these
positions cannot be closed out at the best time.
Certain derivatives involve leverage, which
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Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of this Fund
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which may be obtained by contacting your
financial advisor, or by calling 1-888-877-4626.
Please read this prospectus carefully before you
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Performance quoted represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results.
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1-Year
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Fund at NAV
50.68%
3.94%
S&P 500 Index
49.77%
-3.71%
©2010 Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC.
An interview with Fidelity’s Christine McConnell.
By Helen Modly
Christine McConnell, who launched and still
manages Fidelity Floating Rate High Income
FFRHX, will join other fixed-income luminaries
Friday in “A Search Across Sectors: What’s
Next for Bonds.”
Avoiding an ugly bear market in bonds is at
the top of many advisors’ minds. Clients
continue to seek safety in bonds, even in the
face of rising interest rates and worrisome
defaults. McConnell will join other managers
who concentrate in rather small segments
of the bond universe but excel in those spaces.
Her particular expertise is in the floating-rate
bank loan capital market.
Leveraged Loans
These loans represent credit extended by banks
to highly leveraged corporations. To reduce
the risk of lending to corporations with belowinvestment-grade ratings, the banks syndicate these loans, meaning that they parcel out
pieces of the loan to other banks and to
institutional investors, such as mutual funds.
The mutual funds become direct lenders in
these loans. These bank loans are made with
a floating interest rate that resets every
30 to 90 days based upon LIBOR plus a spread.
7
Small, but Growing, Universe
33 See A Search Across Sectors: What’s Next for Bonds?
Breakout Sessions 3A, 3B; 9:00–9:50a, 10:50–11:40a,
Friday; Room S402.
Senior and Secured to
Reduce Risk
To reduce the credit risk of these loans, they
are usually made on a “senior and secured”
basis. Senior means that the lender is senior
to other creditors of the corporation, such
as high-yield bondholders, subordinated
bondholders, and stockholders. Secured refers
to the fact that these loans are collateralized with property, equipment, inventory, cash,
receivables, or a combination of the above.
Further protection comes from the covenants
attached to these loans. These covenants
either require a company to do certain things
or act in a way that protects the lender
(affirmative covenants) or prohibits a company
from acting in a manner that increases the
lender’s risk (negative covenants). Common
covenants include keeping taxes and business
licenses current, maintaining all real and
tangible property, maintaining adequate
insurance, not taking on additional debt, not
selling assets or equipment, not making
dividend payments to shareholders, or not
allowing other liens to be placed on the assets
that are collateralizing the original loan.
McConnell estimated that the entire asset
class of leveraged bank loans is only
about $500 billion, but it is increasing. Recent
announcements by several of the largest
banks reveal that new issuance of these
loans increased by 55% during 2009. In the
face of a sell-off in other speculative-grade
debt because of the fear of increasing
defaults, banks have arranged $1.84 billion in
loans, more than twice the high-yield junk
bond issuance in just one week, according to
Bloomberg. JPMorgan reports that banks are
currently working to underwrite $16 billion
of these high-yield loans, compared with only
$1.2 billion in bonds.
McConnell said that this increase makes sense
with the fear of tightening liquidity. Corporate
CFOs are looking to stash as much cash
as possible while they can still obtain it, even
though they may already have significant
leverage on the books. “These [floating-rate
bank] loans can help them stockpile the
liquidity in case the window closes.”
Mitigating Risks
The obvious risk with floating-rate bank loans
is the credit/default risk. When asked how
she selects the loans for her highly rated fund,
McConnell emphasized her conservative and
tempered approach to this asset class.
“I first look at the seniority of the debt. In some
situations, every lender is considered senior,
in which case it doesn’t mean much,” she said.
“I want to clearly be at the top of the heap
when it comes to other lenders. Then I look
at the security. I am only interested in hard,
tangible, tradable, definable assets as
Continued on Page 15
Conference Agenda
Friday, June 25
Breakfast in Exhibit Hall
Hall B1 7:00a – 8:00a
Exhibit Hall Open
9:00a –11:00a
S100
General Session
8:00a – 9:00a
Old Wine, New Bottles
Break in Exhibit Hall
Hall B1 9:50a –10:50a
S402
S404 S401
S403
Breakout Session 3A
9:00a – 9:50a
A Search Across Sectors: What’s Next for Bonds?
Alternative Mutual Funds: From Wall Street to Main Street
Investing 501: Your Lizard
Brain and Your Money With
Terry Burnham
Putting Cash to Work
Breakout Session 3B
10:50a –11:40a
See Breakout Session 3A
S100
General Session
11:45a –12:45p
The Monsters of Stock
Informal Networking
Lunch
Hall B1 12:45p –1:30p
Panel: Dividends Beat Share Repurchases
The debate over whether firms should use cash surpluses on dividends or
share repurchases pits long-term investors against short-term investors.
By Mike Brennan
Stagnant market growth increases the relative value of dividend-paying stocks,
according to three veteran dividend investors
in a Thursday panel hosted by Morningstar
editorial director Sonya Morris.
stocks in the S&P 500 have provided a total
return of 9.6% compared with an 8.6%
total return from firms that have repurchased
shares, gains from repurchasing occur
faster, satisfying short-term investors at the
expense of long-term investors.
8
it poorly. You only buy your shares when you
have the cash; you only have the cash when
things are going well; when you’re doing well,
your stock price tends to be up.
“People have this view that, if you retire shares,
they’re gone forever. A share that’s bought
back is not retired. They don’t die. The idea
that they’re going to vanish forever is a myth.”
Added Matt, “Companies are actually
momentum investors in terms of how they
buy back stock.”
ClearBridge Advisors’ Hersh Cohen heads
up his firm’s dividend strategy. He said
long-term investors willing to hold dividendpaying stocks through several cycles will
outgain those merely seeking gains in share
prices. “Stocks go up stocks go down. I can’t
tell you where a stock will be next year,”
Cohen said. “What I can tell you is with a
package of these great companies, chances
are, your income is going to be greater.
People need to be thinking about how to get
a growing stream of income as you get
into your 50s, 60s, 70s.”
While dividend payers offer more total value
than their non-dividend-paying counterparts, he explained, their share prices don’t
indicate great demand, making them
bargains for investors. He cited the twin bear
markets in the last decade as a major reason
investors are staying away from equities,
preventing supply/demand economics from
driving up share prices.
“They’re languishing,” he said. “That’s because
we’re losing a generation of investors. That’s
what happens after big bear markets.”
Joe Matt of Capital Research Global Investors
said fewer companies pay out dividends
than in earlier decades, a result of the rise in
short-term investing priorities.
“When you look out over the last 70-80 years,
you see that dividends have comprised nearly
half the S&P ’s total return over that entire
period of time,” Matt said. “Yet, over the last
20 years, we’ve seen payouts for the S&P
fall from the mid- 40s to the mid-30s. Consequently we’ve also seen the yield of the
S&P come down.”
Cash surpluses, he continued, are increasingly
earmarked for share repurchases rather
than for dividends. He said that his firm’s
studies show that, while dividend-paying
(from left) Hersh Cohen, Don Kilbride, and Joe Matt
“Companies are actually being told by shortterm investors to buy back stock,” Matt
said. “I can’t tell you how many times I’ve sat
in a meeting with a CEO where a group of
hedge-fund investors—short-term investors—have literally pounded the table saying,
‘Why don’t you lever up?’
“It’s important for long-term investors like
ourselves to voice what we want.”
Don Kilbride of Wellington Management
explained that, compared with paying out a
dividend, a share repurchase is a bad for
a company because it generally means that a
company is buying high. This might benefit
the short-term investor who sells shares back
to the company or benefits in the near term
from the reduced supply, but it’s potentially
harmful for the company, and therefore
for long-term investors. A repurchased share
doesn’t disappear, but rather it can be
resold when the company needs cash. When
this happens, the supply is diluted to
its original level, meaning only the short-term
investors, who likely got out at the repurchase, benefitted.
“Historically, companies don’t do (share repurchases) well,” Kilbride said. “They time
Furthermore, Cohen said, share repurchases
are generally unreliable compared with
dividends. The former tend to be one-off events,
while most dividend-paying firms pay out
to investors regularly. Many have been doing
so on an uninterrupted basis for decades,
and can’t be ended without provoking outrage
among long-term shareholders. Matt backed
up Cohen’s stance by pointing out that there
were $600 billion in share repurchases in
2007 compared with just $130 billion in 2009.
“Share repurchases, you never even know if
a company is going to do it,” Cohen said.
“A dividend is a much stronger commitment.
Nobody wants to cut the dividend. …
Share buybacks, unless they’re anti-dilutive,
don’t impress me.”
A member of
Deutsche Bank Group
A member of
Deutsche Bank Group
Six
of the seven
DWS Municipal
Bond Funds
have earned
Morningstar’s
5-star rating.
How?
Through consistent performance. Unwavering investment discipline in
all markets. And relying on some of the most experienced managers in
the industry. Markets change. The way we manage Muni Funds doesn’t.
Internet: dws-investments.com
Phone: (800)621-1148
Deutsche Bank Group
As of 3/31/10. Source: Morningstar, Inc. Ratings are
historical, based on risk adjusted performance and
do not guarantee future results. The Overall rating
for a fund is a weighted average of the ratings for
DWS California Tax-Free Income Fund - Class S
SDCSX
Muni California Long
5 (156)
5 (156)
5 (143)
the time periods indicated. Not all share classes are
DWS Intermediate Tax/aMT Free Fund - Class INST SZMIX
Muni National Interm
5 (210)
5 (210)
5 (189)
available to all investors. Institutional shares have
a million dollar minimum to invest in the share class.
DWS Managed Municipal Bond Fund - Class S
SCMBX Muni National Long
5 (251)
5 (251) 5 (228) 5 (200)
Not all share classes are available to all investors.
DWS Massachusetts Tax-Free Fund - Class S
SCMaX Muni Massachusetts
5 (75)
5 (75)
5 (70)
5 (59)
© 2010 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.
DWS New york Tax-Free Income Fund - Class S
SNWyX Muni New york Long
5 (112)
5 (112)
5 (109)
Morningstar, Inc., shall not be responsible for
investment decisions, damages or other losses
DWS Strategic High yield Tax-Free Fund - Class S
SHyTX
High yield Muni
5 (131)
5 (131)
5 (108)
5 (83)
resulting from use of this rating. For each fund with
at least a 3-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating based on a Morningstar risk-adjusted return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly
performance (including, unless load-waived, the effects of sales charges, loads and redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding
consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in a category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars
and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. (Each share class is counted as a fraction of one fund within this scale and rated separately, which may cause slight variations in the
distribution percentages.)
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Terry Burnham, Ph.D., director of portfolio management and director of
economics at Acadian Asset Management, answered our 10 Questions.
From Morningstar Advisor magazine
5.
33 See Your Lizard Brain and Your Money With
Terry Burnham, Breakout Sessions 3A, 3B; 9:00–9:50a,
10:50–11:40a, Friday; Room S401.
Q: What techniques do you personally
use to overcome your lizard brain?
A: When I get a brownie with my airline meal,
I cover the brownie with mayonnaise. Thus,
Editor’s note: This interview was originally
published in the June/July 2010 issue of
Morningstar Advisor magazine.
Q: How should they avoid making
this mistake?
A: Lock up the lizard brain. In practice, this
means setting up processes that don’t allow
emotional decisions. Slow and methodical
is the correct way to make financial decisions.
4.
Q: If we are built to be bad investors,
shouldn’t we simply buy and hold cheap
index funds and be done with it?
A: The key is emotionless, disciplined
investing. For some investors, index funds can
play a role, but there are other investing
styles that can work well.
A: First, we are structurally set up to
follow a disciplined process and not make
most behavioral mistakes. Second, we
study investors’ mistakes and build portfolios
that we think are on the other side of
these mistakes.
8.
Q: But can you completely remove the
human element from the equation?
How do you guard against human mistakes
and biases that might creep in?
9.
MorningstarAdvisor.com
3.
Banks
A: Investors tend to buy assets after they
have gone up when they ought to buy assets
that will go up.
A Conversation with Harry Markowitz
Q: What is the most costly behavioral
mistake investors make?
Q: Acadian uses quantitative models to
attempt to capitalize on investors’
behavioral errors. How does this
process work?
A: People are built to lose money in asset
markets. The best approach is to understand
that our instincts are inversely related to
opportunity. With this self-knowledge, we can
build processes that minimize the mistakes
and hopefully take advantage of mispricings
caused by others’ emotional mistakes.
Fixed Income
2.
June/July 2010
Terry Burnham: The lizard brain is the part of
you that wants to eat junk food, sleep in
late, and watch TV. More formally, I define
the lizard brain as all the brain except for
the prefrontal cortex, the center of rational
decision-making.
The magazine of investing insights for independent-minded advisors June/July 2010
Morningstar Advisor
Morningstar Advisor: You wrote a book
called Mean Markets and Lizard Brains
(Wiley, 2008). What is the lizard brain?
11
7.
The Irrational Lizard Brain
1.
Bond Fire
Ignoring the dangers, investors rush to ﬁxed-income funds.
“10 Questions” appears in every issue of Morningstar
Advisor magazine. The next issue will reach subscribers in August; head over to http://www.Morningstar
Advisor.com to get your free subscription and explore
a digital archive containing our previous issues.
I am no longer tempted to eat it. In financial
decisions, the lesson is the same. Put your
money where you cannot make decisions in
the short term.
6.
Q: What investor bias do you suffer from
the most?
A: I get excited by big price moves. I want to
buy assets that have gone up a lot and sell
assets that have been dumped. The difference
between successful and unsuccessful is not
in our emotional response to price moves, but
in our behavior. Almost everyone wanted
to sell stocks in the spring of 2009, but not
everyone made that mistake.
Q: Any surprises about how investors
behaved during and after the financial
meltdown, or have they pretty much acted
as you would have predicted?
A: Investor reaction has not been surprising.
Investors made themselves much poorer
by buying risky assets before the financial
crisis and selling them during the crisis.
It’s a well-used playbook, and one that
produces poverty.
10.
Q: What one lesson should financial
advisors take away from your talk at the
Morningstar Investment Conference?
A: “We have met the enemy and he is us.”
This was the message of the comic strip Pogo,
and it is true for investing. Management
of firms can be corrupt, monetary authorities
inept, and governments wasteful. While
these are truths about the world, investors
will profit if they focus their energy on
shackling their own destructive impulses that
spring from the lizard brain.
Globe-Trotting With a Trio of Stock-Pickers
Where T. Rowe’s Gensler, Mutual Series’ Brugere-Trelat, and Artisan’s
O’Keefe have been finding opportunity.
12
countries is a good solution. For example, he
says it’s not all sunshine and roses in China.
He sees significant risks building there around
the lending and housing bubble, and so the
risk/reward profile isn’t more attractive than
that of the developed world.
By Karin Anderson
As managers of world-stock funds, Philippe
Brugere-Trelat of Mutual Global Discovery,
Rob Gensler of T. Rowe Price Global
Stock, and Daniel O’Keefe of Artisan Global
Value Investor can go anywhere in search of
the most attractively valued companies.
They discussed some examples of where they’ve
been finding opportunities on Thursday
during a panel titled “Stock-Picking Across
the Globe.”
Gensler
Gensler has a top position in Rolls Royce,
which he likes for the maintenance business
on the automobile side as well as its
defense business. With more of a growth tilt
to his strategy compared with the other
managers on the panel, he’s focused on finding
share-gainers in their industry group, which
The Morningstar Advisor
User Forum
Morningstar Principia, Office, and Advisor
Workstation subscribers got together
on Wednesday to attend workshops and
individual training sessions presented by Morningstar’s product developers
and experts.
he views as more of a qualitative than quantitative measure. In Gensler’s opinion, there
aren’t any attractive areas of growth in Japan.
He finds China is a bit less expensive
than India, and with China trying to slow its
economy, he’s been looking for more
opportunities there.
O’Keefe
With the goal of adding to them on the dips,
O’Keefe wants to buy beaten-up stocks. One of
his top holdings is Experian, a U.K.-based
credit-information provider. He’s been taking a
look at BP because of the dramatic value
destruction, but he doesn’t own it because he
can’t evaluate the extent of the losses from
the spill in the Gulf. On a higher level, O’Keefe
doesn’t think turning to emerging markets to
avoid the fiscal problems of developed
Brugere-Trelat
Brugere-Trelat likes Danish conglomerate and
container-shipping firm Mersk. Last year
it was heavily shorted based on its exposure
to a slowdown in world trade. As a familyrun company it was practically like a private
firm, so he didn’t find it easy to investigate
in terms of valuing assets. Brugere-Trelat
tries to focus on the catalysts that will avoid
a value trap. In this case, it was the arrival
of a new CEO who was not part of the family.
Overall, Brugere-Trelat believes the best
opportunities arrive during times of crisis. In
Europe, he’s found that all sectors have been
painted with the same brush. He believes
that industrial firms, for example, will benefit
greatly from the cheaper euro.
Karin Anderson is a fund analyst with
Morningstar.
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Continued From Page 3
Considering that any target-date fund’s glidepath necessitates a slowly tilting balance of
equities and fixed-income securities, selecting
a specific figure from a single point on that
glide path and placing it in the title could mislead investors about what is in the fund
at any time.
“To be sure, there can be improvements in disclosure, but I think they’re really going too
far in picking a name that could be confusing,”
Kinnel said.
Romick, Younes Duel on Gold
In the second round-table discussion of the day,
Steve Romick of First Pacific Advisors and
Rudolph-Riad Younes of Artio Global Investors
had a lively exchange on the merits of investing in gold. Younes argued that gold is an
excellent investment option given widespread
Continued From Page 7
collateral.“ She also stated that she is not so
much swayed by a particular brand, since any
brand is subject to event risk.
In the case of a default on one of these
loans, McConnell said that the quality
of the underlying assets will determine the
recovery rate for the loan. In fact, some
loans will continue to accrue interest and
trade at par even after a default and
bankruptcy filing if they are deemed to be
adequately collateralized.
She also looks for companies that are well
positioned on the hierarchy of nondiscretionary needs. “In times of economic turmoil,
these companies produce products and
services that are among the last to be cut
from household budgets. In expanding
economies, these are the same products and
services which increase in consumption,”
she said.
Another risk McConnell identified is the
systemic risk or the collapse of an entire
financial system, as many believed we
were experiencing in late 2008. The sudden
rush to treasuries in October, 2008 caused
an unprecedented drop in the normally stable
uncertainty about the strategies world governments will undertake to stabilize reeling
economies, the growing potential for government defaults, and global trade imbalances.
Romick said a bet on gold is a bet on currency
debasement—on further global economic
calamity. Such a bet, Romick contended,
shouldn’t be a small one.
“There are a lot of political events that are
beyond your realm as a portfolio manager,”
Younes said. “What will the German government do? What will the [European Central
Bank] do? Will they bail out Greece?
Will they bail out Spain? What will the French
government do? Will they bail out the
Franch banks? There are so many questions.
Everybody assumes the Europeans will
do what the Americans have done, which is
destroy the government’s balance sheet to
save the banks’ balance sheets.”
“If you have the conviction to bet on currency
debasement, go large,” he said. “It doesn’t
make much sense to me to be 5, 10, 15 percent
in gold. God forbid, what happens to the
other 85-95% of your portfolio of gold goes to
$3,000 an ounce? You won on gold. The rest
of your portfolio, assuming you’re invested in
equities, is going to get torched.”
While these issues remain unresolved, Younes
said, most popular investment opportunities
amount to “making a bet on what the governments will do. That’s not something we want
to stake our careers and our clients’ wealth
and savings on.”
NAV of floating-rate loan funds. While temporary, this drop was severe even though there
wasn’t a significant increase in fund defaults
or decrease in recovery rates.
Her Outlook for What
Lies Ahead
When asked what she thought was going to
be our economic scenario going forward
and why this asset class should be considered
for our clients’ portfolios, McConnell commented on several scenarios: “If we face a
steep or prolonged deflationary period—
which I personally don’t think we will—these
bank loans will fare better than some other
forms of debt due to their senior and secured
credit status. This helps to protect principal
recovery.” She added, “Since interest rates
can’t go below zero, there is relatively little
downside in coupon rates when the LIBOR is
only up to 0.5% from 0.25%. In the meantime, the additional yield over investment
grade debt will be attractive.”
Faced with a scenario of status quo in which
investors and corporations are skittish and
recovery seems to be two steps forward and
one step back, McConnell expressed the
belief that floating-rate loans would be one
of the best places to be in the debt structure. “As corporations continue to stabilize
15
Younes disagreed that gold is only useful in
extreme situations, arguing that its risk/
reward balance make it a strong risk-management vehicle for money managers tasked
with limiting their investors’ downside risk.
“[Romick] has more risk appetite than myself,”
Younes joked. “More power to him.”
their operating income, these senior loans will
be the first to receive the cash flow since
they are at the top of the risk structure.” She
seemed to think that this is exactly where
we are today and why the NAV of floating-rate
funds were almost back to their normal tight
trading ranges.
Inflation, normally the worst fear of any
fixed-income manager, doesn’t cause the
same reaction in McConnell. “In an expanding
economy with inflation, interest rates are
also going to be increasing and bank loans
with rates that reset every 30 to 90 days
will do just fine. In this scenario, investors
will like these loans for the stability of
the NAV and the attractive yield, just as they
always have.”
Looking into her crystal ball, McConnell
is definitely bullish on the U.S. and her
reasons are very compelling. She is unarguably an intelligent and well-informed
fixed-income specialist—she is definitely a
master of the floating-rate bank loan universe.
Helen Modly, CFP, ChFC, is executive vice
president and director of investment
services for Focus Wealth Management,
a fee-only registered investment advisor
in Middleburg, Va.
A Warm Reception
Scenes from Wednesday night’s reception
in the Exhibit Hall.
16
Our fund managers’ most useful tool
No. 6: a compass
Aberdeen Optimal Allocations Funds give
your clients the right risk direction.
Aberdeen’s five “target-risk” fund of funds aim to maximize
your clients’ returns, based on their individual risk tolerance.
Each fund’s target risk level acts as a clear compass for your
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Morningstar Overall Rating as of March 31, 2010
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Rating based on Class A, load waived. For each U.S. domicile fund with at least a three-year history, Morningstar calculates a Morningstar Rating™ based on
a Morningstar risk-adjusted return measure that accounts for variation in a fund’s monthly performance (including the effects of sales charges, loads, and
redemption fees), placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of funds in each category receive 5 stars,
the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating™
for a fund is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five- and ten-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics.
The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to
be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.
Investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, fees, charges and expenses before investing any money. To obtain this and other
fund information, please call 866-667-9231 to request a prospectus, or download a prospectus at www.aberdeen-asset.us. Please read the prospectus
carefully before investing any money. “Aberdeen” is a U.S. registered service mark of Aberdeen Asset Management PLC.
Aberdeen Funds are distributed by Aberdeen Fund Distributors LLC, Member FINRA and SIPC. 1735 Market Street, 32nd floor, Philadelphia, PA 19103.
NOT FDIC INSURED | NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE
18
Where to Go This Weekend
Entertainment recommendations from Time Out Chicago.
Need more ideas? Go to www.timeoutchicago.com.
Friday, June 25
“Climate Change” exhibit at the Field Museum
The effects of global warming are so daunting that
the regularly family-friendly Field, Chicago’s massive
museum of natural history, warns this exhibit is
for mature audiences only. In addition to harrowing
scenes of dying polar bears and an apocalyptic,
flooded Manhattan, the exhibit explains a bevy of
technical terms, like albedo effect and El Niño–
Southern Oscillation.
June 25 –Nov 28, Mon-Sun 9a–5p; 1400 S Lake Shore
Drive, 312-922-9410; museum admission $15.
Taste of Chicago
Break out your pants with the elastic waistband, and
make room for food from dozens of vendors. A strip
of 12 tickets costs $8, and Taste portions—a decentsized food sample—can be purchased with 2–4
tickets. If you need a break from chewing, check out
music at various stages, including headliners
Salt-n-Pepa (Jun 25), Gavin Rossdale (Jun 26), Rob
Thomas (Jul 2) and Steve Miller Band (Jul 3). We’re
embarrassed to admit that we’ll be at the 5:30 Jun 25
performance by Bell Biv Devoe, chanting “That girl
is poison” with all the other old-school rap lovers.
June 25 –July 4, 11a–9p; Columbus Dr from Balbo Dr to
Monroe Dr, tasteofchicago.us, festival entrance free.
The Red Bar Comedy Club
Joke nights are few and far between in downtown
Chicago. Red Bar Radio’s Mike David and Kyle
Lane right that wrong with this stylish Vegas-style
night of stand-up, held at swank club Ontourage.
The quality of the stand-up is consistently some of the
best in the city, packed with the best local talent
and very few duds.
Ongoing, Fridays and Saturdays 8p and 10p; 157 W
Ontario St, redbarcomedy.com, 312-573-1470; $10.
Saturday, June 26
Chicago Arabesque
In the middle of downtown Chicago, explore the dance,
food and music of the Arab world. Vendors will be
selling clothes, carpets, hookahs, musical instruments
and, of course, food. To get active after you indulge
in Middle Eastern cuisine, take part in the debkeh (a
traditional Arab line dance) competition.
June 24–26, Thu–Fri 10a–6p, Sat 11a–7p; Daley Plaza
at 50 W Washington St, chicagoarabesque.com; free.
“The Absolute Best Friggin’ Time of Your Life” at
The Second City e.t.c.
The e.t.c.’s 34th revue is a doozy. Newcomers Tim
Baltz, Brendan Jennings and Mary Sohn inject life into
a loose narrative that asks just what the heck has
happened to the good times we’ve been promised?
Ebullient, uncomfortable and friggin’ great.
Ongoing, Sundays 7p, Thursdays 8p, Fridays 8p, 11p,
Saturdays 8p, 11p; 1608 N Wells St, 312-337-3992;
$22–$27.
Cans Music Fest
Everybody have fun tonight, because Wang Chung and
Coolio are playing this annual throwback music fest.
Cans Bar & Canteen is not a fancy bar—the beverages
are, indeed, all served in cans—and this is not a
fancy music fest. But the action is outdoors in the heart
of hip Wicker Park, and the high-energy crowd here
knows how to have a good time. What more could you
ask for?
June 25–26, 4p–11p; 1640 N Damen Ave,
773-227-2277, cansbar.com/chicago; $5.
Cirque Shanghai: Cloud 9
The überpopular Cirque Shanghai returns to Navy Pier
to wow audiences with theatrical performances
from acrobats and contortionists, and daredevil stunts
from motorcycle troupe Imperial Thunder. The show
also features new choreography from Brenda Didier.
Ongoing, Sundays 2p, 4p, Wednesdays 2p, 6p, 8p,
Thursdays 2p, 8p, Fridays 2p, 8p, Saturdays 2p, 6p, 8p;
Navy Pier Skyline Stage, 600 E Grand Ave,
312-595-7437; $12.50–$29.50.
Sunday, June 26
Pride Parade and Chicago Pride Fest
Nonstop energy pours into the streets all weekend
during this gay festival. Enjoy food, art and music from
the likes of ’80s teen queen Tiffany at the festival
Friday and Saturday, but don’t miss the post-fest main
event on Sunday: the annual Pride Parade, which
kicks off at noon. Expect tears, cheers and plenty of
beers at the always-rollicking march, which draws
Chicagoans of all sexual orientations.
Chicago Pride Fest: June 25–26, Fri 3p–10p,
Sat 11a–10p; Halsted St at Waveland Ave,
chicagoevents.com; $7.
Pride Parade: Steps off at noon at Halsted Street and
Belmont Avenue; chicagopridecalendar.org; free.
Cirque Shanghai (photo courtesy Cirque Shanghai)
Chicago Salsa Festival
Now’s your chance to become a sexy salsa dancer (or
at least imagine yourself that way). Salsa workshops
and entertainment take place Thursday at Excalibur
(640 N Dearborn St), Friday at the Palmer House (17 E
Monroe St) and Saturday at the Park West (322 W
Armitage Ave). Sunday, the fete will groove at Cubby
Bear (1059 W Addison St) and SummerDance (601 S
Michigan Ave).
June 24–27, Thu 9p– 4 a, Fri–Sun 10a– 4 a; various
locations around Chicago, laboriqua.com; nightly
entertainment pass $25–$50, Fri–Sat workshops and
entertainment day pass $95, Sun workshops
and entertainment day pass $90, festival pass $250.
Green Music Fest
Grab your reusable tote and hit this ecofriendly fest. It
offers environmentally conscious bands and green
vendors powered by alternative-energy sources, so you
can listen to some tunes, shop and feel as if you
helped the planet. This year, the Wailers and Maps
and Atlases headline.
June 26–27, 12p–10p; Chicago Ave between Noble St
and Ashland Ave, greenmusicfestchicago.com; $5.
“From Process to Print: Graphic Works by
Romare Bearden”
Bearden’s (1911–88) collages, prints and paintings
draw on art history, literature and myth to address
black culture and concerns. About 75 of his lithographs,
etchings and other works appear in this exhibition
organized by the New York–based Romare Bearden
Foundation. Today is the last day to see the exhibit,
being presented at the gorgeous Chicago Cultural
Center, which is worth a visit all by itself.
Ongoing through June 27, Fri 8 a–6p, Sat 9a–6p,
Sun 10a–6p, Mon–Thu 8 a–7p; 78 E Washington St,
312-744-9350; free.
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before investing and may be obtained by calling 800 387 6977 or visiting www.artiofunds.com. Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not in any sense constitute a solicitation or offer for the purchase or
sale of securities. Investments are not deposits or obligations of, nor guaranteed by any banking institution; nor are they insured by the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) or any other government agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible
loss of the principal amount invested. Artio Global Management LLC, a registered investment adviser, is the indirect subsidiary of Artio
Global Investors Inc., a publicly traded company under the ticker symbol “ART”. Artio Global Funds are distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC.

Morningstar Investment Conference

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