An update on BILATERAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

An update on BILATERAL ECONOMIC RELATIONS

An update on
BILATERAL ECONOMIC
RELATIONS
Prepared in September 2011
by the Consulate General of the Netherlands Commercial Section
Martijn Elgersma, Deputy Consul General
Mustafa Basaran, Senior Commercial Officer
Turkey and Netherlands
•Turkey 1923 - Now
•Turkish Economy
•Turkey & EU
•Netherlands & Turkey
•Consulate General
For HISWA
Ottoman Empire: a declining state
1800
1900
1919
Turkey 1923: A new beginning
For HISWA
ATATURK’S REFORMS
ÖZAL ERA (1983-1993)
For HISWA
2001
AKP ERA (2002 - Today)
2007 Elections
OTHER
18%
AKP
47%
MHP
14%
CHP
21%
For HISWA
2011
&
Turkey
Netherlands
GDP, US$ billion -PPP
GDP per Capita, US$
40,300
960.5
GDP per Capita, US$
12,300
Budget Deficit/GDP, %
-5.3
Budget Deficit/GDP, %
Public Debt/GDP, %
62.7
Public Debt/GDP, %
43
Share of education, GDP%
3.6
Share of health, GDP%
5.7
Median age
27
Share of education, GDP%
Share of health, GDP%
Median age
For HISWA
676.9
GDP, US$ billion -PPP
5.1
9
41
-3.6
Consulate General in Istanbul
•
•
•
•
•
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Trade/Investment Promotion
Consular Affairs
Culture
Human Rights
Immigration
Politics
TURKEY: A LARGE AND RAPIDLY GROWING ECONOMY
16. Biggest World Economy, 2010
Netherlands
Poland
Taiwan
Iran
Australia
Turkey
Indonesia
Canada
Spain
South Korea
Mexico
Italy
France
United
Brazil
Russia
Germany
India
Japan
China
United States
Average GDP Growth Rates, % (2003-2010)
Turkey
The Netherlands
EU-27
Russia
4.91
1.03
1.35
4.61
China
9.59
India
0.00
7.70
2.00
4.00
6.00
%
For HISWA
8.00
10.00
12.00
TURKEY GDP GROWTH RATE, %
ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, 2010
15
11
9.9
10
7.9
8.9
7.4
5.9
Agriculture; 9%
6.9
4.6
5
Industry; 24%
1.1
0
-5
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
-5
-10
11
Q1
Services; 67%
-8
MANUFACTURING
Other; 4%
Automotive; 7%
Machinery; 10%
Non-Metals; 9%
Refinery; 15%
Base Metals;
10%
Textile&Cloth.;
19%
Chemicals; 10%
Food; 16%
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators on CD-ROM, 2006.
Eurostat, epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/
TUIK, www.tuik.gov.tr
Inflation, CPI % (1980-2010)
120
100
%
80
60
40
20
0
80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10
1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0 2 0 20 2 0
For HISWA
MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS:
2002
2010
Compared to the
Netherlands 2010
Total exports
US$ 36 billion
US$ 113.9 billion
US$ 486.7 billion (2009)
Total imports
US$ 51 billion
US$ 201.9 billion
US$ 429.5 billion (2010)
Current Account Deficit
US$ 1.5 billion
US$ 7.5 billion
GDP/Capita (PPP
Adjusted)
US$ 3223
US$ 12300
Est. US$ 40300
Inflation
29.7%
8.57 %
0.9%
Number of global capital
companies in
Turkey
5.560
25.837
Share from global
capital inflows to
emerging markets
0.5%
1.6% (2009)
Dutch government and private sector organizations classified Turkey as a ‘priority country’ together
with Russia and India in 2005...
For HISWA
155%
93%
71%
130%
74%
75%
141%
138%
96%
134%
72%
73%
88%
123%
63%
77%
97%
49%
78%
40%
110%
61%
How Competitive is Turkey?
Labor & Skilled Labor
%
Incoming FDI/GDP-% (2006-2010)
Cz
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
ec
h
R
4.54
3.78
4.35
3.2
2.42
0.95
ub
ep
lic
Po
la n
ss
Ru
d
ia
n
F
a
er
ed
ti o
n
Gr
ee
ce
Ne
la
er
th
nd
s
Tu
rk
ey
Global Competitiveness Index- 2010
Country
Rank
Switzerland
1
Score
5.63
Netherlands
8
5.33
China
27
4.84
Turkey
61
4.25
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators on CD-ROM, 2006.
Eurostat, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/
For HISWA
Turkish Imports from The Netherlands, US$1000
900000
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
qu
ip .
ch
ti c
., t
e
Op
El
ec
t
ric
.,
m
al
ed
ic
eq
ui
.e
pm
en
t
ica
ls
Ch
em
ra
i ne
M
hi n
er
y
ac
l fu
&
els
&
bo
i le
oil
s
rs
es
eh
icl
rv
o to
M
M
Pl
as
t
ics
Iro
&
n
ar
&
st
tic
le s
ee
l
2010
2009
2008
Source: www.tuik.gov.tr, www.cbs.nl
For HISWA
Turkish Exports to The Netherlands, US$1000
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
2010
400000
2009
200000
2008
0
l
.
g
rs
es
le s
nt s
l es
t ee
u ip
hi n
i le
i cl
ta b
eq
me
rt ic
lot
bo
eh
&s
e
l
a
a
c
l
v
i
&
g
a
n
f
&
e
ic
to r
ry
Iro
st ic
es
ct r
&v
et ic
ne
Mo
Pl a
xtil
i ts
El e
nth
chi
u
y
a
r
Te
S
F
M
Pros and Cons for 2012
• Soft landing or recession?
• Current Account Deficit is a growing concern (10% of GDP).
Turkey is heavily dependent on portfolio investments in
financing the CA deficit.
• High economic growth but yet high unemployment..(9.2%)
• Main fiscal indicators fare better than EU average.
• Strong government with wide public support
For HISWA
Bilateral Trade Between The Netherlands & Turkey, US$ mn.
3500
3000
U S $, m n
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
DUTCH EXPORTS DUTCH IMPORTS
For HISWA
2009
2010
FDI to TURKEY
FDI Flows per country of origin Levels, US$ million
COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
Number of FDI Firms Established (1954-2011*)
2005-2009
2010
2011*
3410
497
194
12955
718
349
GERMANY
THE NETHERLANDS
COUNTRY OF
ORIGIN
2009
2010
2011
*
TOTAL
(1954-2011*)
GERMANY
492
460
235
4561
UK
3183
350
374
THE
NETHERLANDS
FRANCE
4209
617
718
UK
22559
2431
4047
OTHER EU
COUNTRIES
469
432
255
5401
6271
260
340
TOTAL
2936
3233
1647
27595
66294
6250
6478
NL SHARE IN
TOTAL, %
5.01
%
5.01
%
4.13
%
7.03%
OTHER EU COUNTRIES
USA
TOTAL
NL SHARE IN TOTAL,
%
20.3%
13,04%
5.4%
147
162
68
1940
202
161
67
2305
Source: Ministry of EconomicAffairs,
www.ekonomi.gov.tr *:January-May
Source: Ministry of EconomicAffairs,
www.ekonomi.gov.tr *:January-May
As of May 2011, 1,940 Dutch origin companies are operating in Turkey. Some of these
enterprises are old timers such as Philips, Unilever, Shell and DSM with decades long
presence in this country.
A large portion of the Netherlands origin investments are international companies registered
in the Netherlands for tax reasons.
Sectoral Breakdown of Dutch Origin Companies in Turkey, 2011
Educ., R&D, Health &
Social Serv.
2%
Chemical Industry
2%
Other
20%
Financial Services
2%
Metal / Machinery
2%
Vehicle / Automotive
2%
Textile & Clothing
3%
Power, Utilities, Env.,
Public Serv.
5%
Transport & Logistics
Tourism & Catering
5%
6%
For HISWA
Wholesale & Retail Trade
20%
Real Estate
10%
Construction
9%
ICT, Media, Communic.
6%
Food, Tobacco, Agriculture
6%
Regional Breakdown of Dutch Origin Companies in Turkey, 2011
KOCAELI
OTHER
AYDIN
2%
9%
3%
ANKARA
5%
MUGLA
5%
ISTANBUL
54%
IZMIR
7%
ANTALYA
15%
Some Dutch Entrants 2007-2010
For HISWA
Some Turkish Investors in The Netherlands
DB AGRO
DERIN
SHIPPING
ROLE OF THE EMBASSY in ANKARA & THE
CONSULATE GENERAL in ISTANBUL
([email protected] - [email protected])
• Trade & Investment Inquiries (both from Dutch and
Turkish companies)
• Reports
• Economic Missions, Networking, Lobbying &
Support
• Market insight & intelligence for policy makers in the
Netherlands
For HISWA