PDF - The Kerton Group

2014
2011
Debrief Report: CES 2014
MWC Debrief
CTIA Spring 2009
CES
2014
MWC
2011
Debrief
1/14/2014
April,
2013
2009
09
Debrief
February, 2011
Main Trends
Trends and
Main
and Observations
Observations
Derek
Kerton
Derek Kerton
Principal Analyst
Principal
Main Trends and Observations
as Collected by
Derek Kerton
Principal Analyst
1
1
Copyright 2011; The Kerton Group
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CTIADebrief
• Trends, highlights from the show
• Derek Kerton’s take-aways, followed
by group contributions
• This debrief discussion will be
summarized and added to this final
ppt version
• Many points of view more valuable
than one
• Sharing our many eyes and ears
means we don’t miss anything
important.
• Big Robert Goulet show was off the
hook! Nipsey Russell also solid.
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Show Overview 1
• Sadly, Mark Desautels, VP Wireless
Internet Development dies at show
• Responsible for educational sessions
at shows
• Responsible for lobbying around
mobile data services
• 56yo, heart attack on Monday
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Show Overview 2
• Show: Not bad, but a rerun of MWC
content. CTIA needs to change dates.
• Sessions: Attendance very poor.
Victim of cost cutting.
• Networking: As good as ever!
• Overall good buzz. Real deals
being made, less flashy.
• Attendance (official)
– 40k in 2008 34k this year, off 15%
•
•
It didn’t “feel” like it. Felt more like 25% off.
Debrief attendees noted LVCC logistics firm FREEMAN said their business was off 30%
– Booth space remained the same at about 1,000 exhibitors
• The show shared the LVCC with the International Car Wash
Association, and was disjointed. Some sessions required
passing through car wash equipment exhibits.
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Largent State of US Wireless 1
Industry gaining big
yards.
From CTIA semi-annual industry
survey:
• 270M subs at end
2008, up 15M over
2007
• 2.2Trillion MoU in
2008, up 100B
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Largent State of US Wireless 2
• Wireless data
revenues $32B for
2008, up 39%
• Data is 22% of rev
• 1Trillion SMS in 2008,
3x 2007
• 15B MMS in 2008, up
from 6B
• 242,130 cell sites
Obligatory Growth Chart
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Health and Wellness 1
• Friday keynote:
Cardiologist Dr. Eric
Topol, Chief Academic
Officer of Scripps Health
• Converting medical
records from paper to
electronic is a general
trend that supports digital
health apps.
• If you’re interested in
tracking this sector, Brian
Dolan launches
mobihealthnews.com
• Trend: it’s not just tech
companies anymore. Health
institutions are putting real
money into this:
– San Diego-based Gary and Mary
West Foundation committed $45
million to create the West
Wireless Health Institute with
Qualcomm and Scripps
– Intel and General Electric
announced they are jointly
investing $250 million over the
next five years to develop
personalized home healthcare
devices
• Health Industry driver is cost
savings, not really health
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Health and Wellness 2
• TCSV Member and LBS
solution provider,
Gearworks, was a CTIA
Award finalist.
• OnCare by Gearworks™
is a location-based
mobile business
application specifically
designed to enable home
healthcare and hospice
organizations to increase
productivity, ensure
compliance and improve
patient outcomes
Glocaps by Vitality. A lighting, ringing
medication reminder which is
linked to the cloud.
•
Ringtone reminder
•
Inventory update
•
Compliance monitoring
•
Escalation list notifications
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Health and Wellness 3
Nothing too special on this slide, just
noting that there are a lot of apps and
activity in the sector.
• The PillPhone Mobile app
– Reminders
– Reference info
– Compliance tools, record archive
•
Proteus Biomedical
– each pill contains an Ingestible Event
Marker (IEM), a sand-grain-sized
microchip with a thin-film battery that
is activated on ingestion, as it is
exposed to water. A signal is sent to a
patch receiver.
•
iVisit Rx
– Telehealth
– Video share
– monitoring
According to George Savage,
Proteus's cofounder and a
former ER physician, “40% of
hospital readmissions for heart
failure happen because patients
fail to take their medications
properly.”
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Application Stores
• MSFT, RIM launch at show
• 70% - 80% rev. share for
developers is huge compared
to prior model of gauntlet of
approval, high testing fees, 2550% share, and other hurdles.
• App stores beg for content
where carrier decks resisted
content.
• RIM seems hungrier, offers
bigger cut
• Developers complain, “More
fragmentation, discovery still a
problem”
– Get over it. It’s a great time
to be a developer.
Huge trend at the show, but not a
surprise
• Handango, with 130k+ apps,
seeks to power carrier stores,
or risk being shut out.
• China Mobile, Verizon,
Softbank, Vodafone seek to
build widget store in Joint
Innovation Lab. Trying to offer
an attractive target for
developers.
– Didn’t work well for Vodafone Live
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Netbooks & Laptops
• Wireless penetration
growth shifts from
handsets to Netbooks
• ATT: $50 gets you a $240
Netbook, if you contract
to 2yrs of $60/mo for
200MB/mo! For 5GB
plan, upfront price jumps
to $100.
• …but you gotta also have
ATT DSL!
• That’s a good deal for
very few subscribers.
• Verizon announced
subsidized Netbooks two
weeks ago.
• Remote Kill Switch for
Netbooks: Ericsson
F3607gw modules.
– Likely to be easily hacked
– Also has GPS for asset
tracking
– More interesting for VAS
like enterprise security than
for kill switch.
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Embedded Mobile Broadband
• Ralph de la Vega, president
and CEO of AT&T Mobility and
AT&T's consumer markets,
predicted that the proportion of
revenues that AT&T gets from
broadband data will likely grow
from 20% of revenues to 33%
by 2013 with the potential to be
even higher
• Ivan Seidenberg thinks 500%
market penetration is possible
• Glenn Lurie (ATT)
says that embedded
is the growth
opportunity for telcos
– Seems to neglect a shift to PAN
systems that use a personal
gateway and Wi-Fi or Bluetooth
for to connect diverse devices.
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Option Mobile's uCan Dongle
• Turn any PC into your
pc
• Connect any PC with
your connection
– Sorry, I didn’t get
around to research on
this, but the idea is
interesting.
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Less HSPA+ Than at MWC
•
HSPA+ is from 3GPP release 7 and is the
next step from HSPA
–
–
•
•
•
•
Boosts theoretical speeds from 7.6Mbps to 28Mbps or
more, moves voice to VoIP, reduces latency
Poster child of the MWC show, HSPA+ was much less
visible in Las Vegas
Focus at MWC was on taking HSPA to its
limits, HSPA+, before going to 4G LTE
Focus at CTIA seems to be more HSPA,
and then skipping to LTE
Ex: Verizon is building out LTE, meanwhile,
in Europe, Ericsson and Telefonica continue
to push HSPA+ to new heights.
For more, see
http://hspa.gsmworld.com/upload/news/files/10122007082416.pdf
• A Debrief attendee in the
first session solved the
puzzle. The answer is at
right. We love how these
debriefs allow smart minds
to collaborate…
Then
4G
LTE
• A great observation from a debrief
attendee is that this the difference
in emphasis is caused by the
threat of WiMAX.
• Whenever WiMAX is present
(Sprint, Clearwire), the
establishment talks 4G LTE (VZW,
ATT).
• Without the threat of WiMAX (the
EU), the establishment is happier
extracting more out of their 3G
investment before being pushed
into 4G CapEx.
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Skype on Phones
A true threat to carriers
• Deutsche Telekom up in arms,
blocks all use of VoIP
• But some Nokias already ship
with Skype. RIM soon to ship
with Skype
• AT&T: iPhone VoIP works over
Wi-Fi, not 3G
– ATT bans VoIP, P2P, and
Sling over cellular – then
recants within one week
• Backlash: The Free Press
lobbies for open access from
carriers
• Skype handled 8% of the
world's international calling
minutes in 2008, according
to TeleGeography
• 405M “Users” (downloads)
• About 16M online at a time
• Seek to “work with”
operators (i.e. you build
the networks, we’ll provide
the service)
• iPhone app: 1M
downloads in 2 days
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mVoIP and Unified MSG
So many pretenders to owning
the telecom customer!! Talk
about disruptive times.
• Skype on iPhone, soon to
launch on Blackberry
• Carriers can respond with
AlcaLu 5155 Rich
Communications Manager
• Zer01 Mobile (flat rate US
mobile carrier…or not?)
• Truphone (SIM and VoIP)
• Google Voice, use a single
phone number…ours
• T-Mo to offer home phone
(Android)
• Many solutions are not VoIP
over cell, but actually cellular
to VoIP gateway (ex: iSkoot,
Google)
• Is latency issue solved? Yes,
with 3GPP Rel 6 and HSUPA
• Carriers worried
– Blocking, Sandvine, DPS, ToS
changes
• Irony: investment in networks
delivers latency free VoIP, and
empowers new competitors.
• Carriers wonder: Can’t we just
go back to this:
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Zer01 Mobile
• All calls, all data, all taxes,
$70/mo
• Sounds a bit like Truphone,
but for domestic as well as
int’l roaming
• Sounds too good to be true
• Mobile VoIP using
smartphones with installed
software and a Zer01 SIM
• Proprietary Celltop UI is
iPhone top screen knock-off
• Promises to be very
disruptive.
• I have some doubts about
ability to deliver.
• Watch it: either very
important, or an interesting
flame-out
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Backhaul
• Discussed extensively at
show
• Growth market
• Solutions in all bands up
to 80GHz
• Some hops have higher
capacity needs than
microwave can provide
• Microwave, P2P wireless,
Metro Ether, Optical are
all favorites
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Packet Core
• All IP in the core
• Migration to 4G, all IP
networks
• One network for fixed,
mobile, and all
services
• 3G networks that are
LTE-ready (Cox
cable, VZW,
MetroPCS
• AlcaLu Converged
RAN
• Starent Networks
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$7.2 Billion In Free Money
• $7.2 billion broadband
stimulus money
– Still haven’t defined
broadband
– Though the money is
to reach
“underserved”, that is
currently undefined
– Main goal is creating
jobs, not broadband
• People aren’t shy
about wanting a piece
• Interesting shift of
likely recipients from
incumbents vs. to
grassroots,
community, small
WISPs.
• Mobile wireless wants
a share, and seeks
recognition that there
is value in mobility as
well as raw speed.
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Fixed Phones Get Sexy?
• Offer fixed-mobile
convergence voice
services
• Apps work across fixed
and mobile (like Android
apps on planned T-Mo
devices)
• Increase loyalty
• Decrease fixed line
attrition rates
• But how to handle the
cost of the devices?
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Partnerships
• Softbank, Verizon
Wireless, Vodafone
and China Mobile
promising the world's
largest mobile widget
platform
• 1B subscribers
combined
• Based on the Joint
Innovation Lab (JIL)
• Strategic move to put
operators back in the
drivers seat wrt “app
stores” and
smartphone platforms
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G1 – Android Stats
Robert Dotson, T-Mo
USA President,
offered stats on G1
usage:
• T-Mo says G1 users consume
50x the average bandwidth.
• Half of G1 users traded-up
from a basic handset
• And 80% browse on the device
daily
• Half use Wi-Fi daily
• Users average 40+ apps
downloaded so far from
Android Market
• 4 out of 5 download at least
one app per week
• No number of G1 users stated.
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WiMAX
• Sprint explains that ‘Sprint 4G’
is for enterprise, and Clearwire
‘Clear’ is brand for consumers
• Nokia's head of sales, Anssi
Vanjoki, calls it “Betamax” from
London during CTIA Show
• Clearwire launched a
developer initiative in Silicon
Valley to accelerate the
expansion of the WiMAX
ecosystem
• 20 sq. mi. developer network in
Silicon Valley by end of
summer
Samsung announces a
WinMO MID for
Clear/Sprint
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A Bad Idea?
• The Redfly Mobile Companion
• No processor, just a screen, a
keyboard, and a battery
• Give your smartphone a bigger I/O
• WinMo, Palm, other
• $200
• Palm Foleo, anyone?
• Or is it a good idea…? Phones are
just getting more powerful, all they
will soon lack is I/O. With a 2011
phone as powerful as a 2003 laptop,
maybe this idea will fit.
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Android
• Android news, yes. Android devices,
not so much.
• T-Mo to offer a tablet and a home
phone in the US by end09
• Phones to appear in second half 2009.
Why the delay?
– Our debrief attendees suggested that
debugging Android on the G1 was so
resource-intensive for Google, that other
devices had to wait. Once Android shakes
the bugs out, more devices will follow.
• Samsung announced models for T-Mo
and Sprint
• T-Mo rumored for the HTC Magic
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Palm Pre
•
•
•
•
Truly a fantastic user experience
design. But needs to be markettested.
Exclusive to Sprint, could be a
turnaround phone like iPhone.
Opened the Mojo SDK for Linuxbased WebOS during the show.
CTIA News
–
–
–
–
I moderated a developer session, and
queried the audience. Many plan to
develop for Pre, showing a surprising
level of interest
Announced an emulator for running old
PalmOS apps…a “duh” moment
No additional carrier announcements…
No firm launch date…
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Femtocells Advance
Femto was big at CTIA, but all the news
came out at MWC:
• T-Mo announces trials, other carriers
move forward.
• Bifurcation into home and enterprise
segments
• Enterprise segment garnering
increased attention
• picoChip leads chip sales, announces
“super femto” for enterprise
• Super femto blurs lines with picocells.
Increase concurrent user limit from 4 to
8.
• Qualcomm about-face, now enters
market with chipsets for combo HSPA+
and CDMA femtocell
• Femto Forum “Femto Zone” display of
wide variety of models
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Fin
If you would like to contact Derek, use
[email protected]
Telecom Council members and people who
bought this summary can contact me for no
charge clarification on the points herein.
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