INSIDE THIS ISSUE December 2012 Our Friends

Chair
Denis P. O’Brien
Exelon Utilities
December 2012
Treasurer
Gretchen R. Haggerty
United States Steel
Our Friends:
No one thought we’d wake-up the morning after the election to the headline “Status Quo
Wins!!!!” but that’s what I thought as PBC ended its election night coverage in the wee hours
and it’s still what I think a month later.
Secretary
Kathy Pape
Pennsylvania American Water
Education Foundation Chair
T. William Boxx
McKenna Foundation
The units of the federal and Pennsylvania state government are still in the same hands. The
margin of power has changed slightly in both Senates — moving more to the left. But largely, the
playing field is unaltered. A sea-change in committee chairmanships, cabinet offices, and senior
appointed officials is not about to take place. The institutions remain relatively as they were.
PEG PAC Chair
Gary Veshecco
Erie Insurance
President & CEO
David W. Patti
Political & Grassroots Director
Christopher Nicholas
Events Manager
Ashley L. Parsells
Office Manager
Rosalie Adams
Strategic Partner
Valerie S. Gaydos
51st Associates
The 113th Congress will have 84 new House members. Three are from Pennsylvania — Scott
Perry, Keith Rothfus, and Mat Cartwright. Rothfus. There are 14 freshmen in California, which
is the same number of House members in the entire Michigan delegation. The Pennsylvania
House will have 26 new members when it is sworn in on New Years Day.
Consultants
Earl M. Baker, PhD
Michael E. Greenberg, PhD
Kathleen Woolever
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
President Obama re-elected
2
Our readers - right again!
3
Congressional recap
4
Casey rolls to 2nd term
5
BIPAC election insight
6
The national picture
7
Who will be our next POTUS
8
PA legislative control
Even if the allocation of power between parties has stayed relatively even, the individuals matter. They have the capacity to bring new priorities, new ideas, and new energy to their posts. To
help you better know our “freshmen,” PBC published after Election Day a guide to new policymakers. If you haven’t already done so, give it a review by clicking here.
To learn how the election unfolded and what the numbers mean, please read the ensuing pages
for a comprehensive recap of General Election 2012.
We wish you and your loved ones healthy and happy holidays.
All the best,
10
Democrats sweep row offices 11
A feel good voting story
One of America’s preeminent political analysts disagrees with me, however. Bernadette Budde,
who is retiring from BIPAC after 40+ years, says “this was not a status quo election.” Bernadette argues, “Every election brings in new people, tells us something about the voters and the
issues, and rearranges power.” Like the hard sciences, political science depends on the “unit of
analysis” and if the level shifts from the institutions to the individuals, I agree with Bernadette.
Much has changed in recent years. Bernadette and her protégé Kelly McDonough point out that
after the seat of retiring US Senator Jim DeMint (R SC) is filled, the US Senate will have 45
members who have served under six years. That’s a stunning statistic. But look at Pennsylvania: only 13 of the 50 Senate members — one quarter — were elected before 2000.
12
Readers’ poll: PA Society and
2014 gubernatorial race
12
David W. Patti
PBC President & CEO
Page 2
President Barack Obama
carried Pennsylvania and its
20 Electoral College votes
on the way to a national win
with 332 Electoral College
votes. In the state he won:
12 counties
2,886,087 votes
52 percent
The Keystone State gave its 20 electoral votes to
Barack Obama on November 6th, the sixth consecutive
presidential election in which the state voted Democratic. The President won the state with 52 percent of the vote, down from 54.7 percent in 2008. Obama won the state by approx. 292,000 votes and carried Philadelphia by approximately 466,000 votes which means he lost the other 66 counties in
the state and more than made up for it in the city. There were about 59 voting divisions in the city (that‘s what they call their
precincts) that gave 100 percent of their votes to Obama. Much has been made of this statistic, but many of those divisions
did the same in 2008. And for those that might think, “What about the two Republican committeepeople in that division?
Surely they voted for Romney…?” remember that in large swaths of overwhelmingly-Democratic west Philadelphia, many divisions have no GOP committeepeople.
The trend lines that could have given the state to Mitt Romney continued, but not with enough intensity to flip the state to the
GOP. President Obama’s winning margin was down (very) slightly in Philadelphia, down noticeably in the Philadelphia suburbs
and he did in fact, collapse in the west --the Pittsburgh and Johnstown-Altoona media markets.
Obama’s Philadelphia margin topped 466,000, as noted, but he won only 12 counties in the state — down from 18 in 2008.
Except for the city itself, his margins declined in every county in the Philadelphia media market this year. In the Pittsburgh media market, Obama’s margin went from +20,000 to -40,000. In the Johnstown-Altoona market Obama’s deficit more than doubled, to -76,000. Overall, the President’s winning percentage declined in 64 of the state’s 67 counties – all but Philadelphia,
Delaware and Lackawanna. Six counties flipped from Obama ’in 2008 to Romney in 2012: Berks, Cambria, Carbon, Centre,
Chester and Elk.
In the spring there was considerable debate about changing the way the state allocated its Electoral College votes, with some,
including Governor Tom Corbett and Senate Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, advocating for a change to a proportional system.
Under a proportional system, used in Maine and Nebraska, a candidate for president wins an electoral vote for every congressional district they carry in a state, plus they would receive two electoral votes (representing the US Senators) if they carried
the entire state. Under this system, Romney would have received 12 of the state’s electoral votes instead of zero. Romney
carried every one of the state’s 13 GOP-held congressional districts, except the 8th. Obama carried the 7th plus the five districts held by Democrat members of congress, and would have also received two votes for carrying the state.
And although there was widespread grumbling among Democratic County chairs across the state about OFA (Obama’s permanent GOTV operation), it got the job done.
Eight million fewer people voted this year than in 2008. Across the country, Romney trounced Obama among white voters
while the President won non-white voters in a landslide. White voters made up just 74 percent of the electorate – the lowestever margin. The mix of voters that turned out favored the Democrats by a seven point margin, which blunted the fact that
Romney handily won Independents. Interestingly, according to an estimate from the RNC, an additional 334,000 Romney
votes in Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire would have given the election to the Republican.
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 3
.
Five weeks before the November 6 General Election, the Pennsylvania Political Report asked the
smartest people it knows — our readers — to predict the election results. It comes as no surprise to us
that our readers were correct — and at an astonishingly detailed level. Click here to check the October
edition of the Pennsylvania Political Report if you don’t believe us. Here is a comparison of the predictions and the outcomes:
By a margin of 2:1 our readers overwhelmingly believed that President Barack Obama would win the national
popular election for President. They were, of course correct.
Pennsylvania Political Report readers who responded to the survey predicted the President would win 282 of the
required 270 Electoral College votes for election. They undershot by a fair margin, he received 332 to Mr.
Romney’s 206 (unofficial).
Our readers predicted President Barack Obama would win 52 % of the Pennsylvania vote while Mitt Romney
would receive 46%. They were almost exactly right: President Obama won 52.1 percent and Mitt Romney won
46.7 percent.
By a margin greater than 5:1, our readers said Sen. Bob Casey would be re-elected. They were correct.
Looking into their crystal balls, the Pennsylvania Political Report readers predicted state row office wins for:
Kathleen Kane to the office of Attorney General; John Maher to the office of Auditor General; and the re-election of
Treasurer Rob McCord. Our readers went two- out-of-three on the row office races, accurately predicting wins for
Kane and McCord, but missing the victory of Eugene DePasquale to the office of Auditor General.
Our readers predicted that Republicans would maintain control of the Pennsylvania Senate, but would lose two
seats for a 28/22 balance. They were correct about control, but Democrats managed to take away three seats
for a 27/23 margin in the Senate.
Our readers predicted that Republicans would maintain control of the Pennsylvania House, but thought the party
would suffer the loss of some seats reducing the margin to a 108/95 balance. They were correct about control,
but didn’t give Republicans enough credit for their ability to hold and win seats. The post-election margin is
111/92.
Save the date.
PEG PAC Annual Dinner
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 4
Lost amid the general good news for
Democrats on election day was their
dismal showing on the Congressional
level here in Pennsylvania. Somehow,
as Obama won more than 52 percent
of the vote and Democrats captured all
three row offices for the first time and
re-elected Sen. Bob Casey, Democrats
lost a congressional seat.
Republicans cemented their control
of the state’s congressional delegation
in the recent November elections, and
now hold a large 13-5 lead. In a state
with nearly 1 million more Democrats
than Republicans, GOP Congressional
candidates collectively received 2.62
million votes (or 48.8 percent) in the
state while Democratic candidates just
edged them with 2.70 million votes.
Some have attributed the results to
what they perceive to be ‘gerrymandering’ during the recent redraw of Pennsylvania’s congressional boundaries,
but going into the 2012 elections the
GOP held 12 of the then-19 seats. It is
true that the new plan forced two Democratic Congressmen (Mark Critz and
Jason Altmire) into the same district,
but that only partially helps explain Republican Keith Rothfus’ victory over
Critz. (Rothfus just narrowly lost his
2010 race for this seat, by only 1.5
percent.)
Democratic voters are simply more
geographically concentrated. West
Philadelphia provides a good case
study .
In 59 divisions (precincts) of Philadelphia, Mitt Romney received zero
votes. (Republican candidates in the
past suffered similar electoral fates.)
Many of these divisions are in west
Philadelphia which cast nearly unanimous votes to President Obama and
the rest of the Democratic ticket.
Pennsylvania Political Report
While there are hundreds of thousands of residents of the neighborhood,
they are packed into a fairly small geographic area, given that the state encompasses more than 46,000 square
miles.
Most of these voters are in one congressional district, in this case the 2nd
District, represented by Congressman
Chaka Fattah. He won re-election in
2012 with 89 percent of the vote. By
contrast, the largest margin of a reelected Republican was Congressman
Tom Marino, who snared 66 percent of
the vote in the sprawling 10th District,
which includes all or parts of 15 counties.
The Democratic vote is more concentrated which makes the party’s incumbents ultra-safe and almost impossible
to beat. Pennsylvania’s five remaining
Democratic members of Congress represent part of major cities: Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Scranton/WilkesBarre. The Republican vote though, is
less concentrated, which makes for
tougher and tighter elections – but can
lead to a 13-5 margin in a Democrat
state such as Pennsylvania.
By the way, the GOP won 51.4 percent of the Congressional vote in 2010
and just 44 percent of the vote in
2008. In 2008, 5.77 million total votes
were cast for Congress in the state; in
2010 that total plunged to just 3.95
million and this year it rebounded to
5.38 million.
The 2014 elections do not offer
much hope to state Democrats or the
Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee (DCCC). Apart from the
newly-elected Keith Rothfus, every incumbent GOP Congressman in the
state won re-election by more than 13
points. So, where would the DCCC look
to target a winnable seat, remembering
that the turnout matrix in 2014 will be
Congressman-Elect from the 12th District
Keith Rothfus
Keith Rothfus graduated from West Seneca
Senior High School in 1980. Rothfus attended the State University of New York College
at Buffalo for his bachelor's degree in Information Systems. Rothfus moved with his wife
Elsie to her hometown of Edgeworth in Pittsburgh's northern suburbs in 1994, shortly
after he graduated from Notre Dame Law
School. For most of the last twenty years,
Keith has been an attorney in private practice, working with large and small employers
as they struggle to create jobs and opportunity in the region. From 2006 to 2007, he
worked for the Department of Homeland
Security, heading up the office that partnered
with faith-based organizations to provide
disaster relief. Rothfus is also a cancer
survivor who ran his first marathon 18
months after his diagnosis. Keith and Elsie
have six children.
less favorable for their party without an
incumbent President and US Senator
leading the ticket?
More ominously for Democrats, their
total vote in 2012 plunged by more
than 506,000 compared to their 2008
totals – the total GOP vote actually increased by 83,000.
In short, it may be years before the
Democratic party has a real opportunity
to challenge Congressional seats in
Pennsylvania again.
Page 5
Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. cruised to reelection with 53.5 percent of the vote
to Republican Tom Smith’s 44.8 percent, a margin of more than 486,000
votes.
Final campaign finance records will
show that Smith put in $20 million of
his own money in his challenge to Casey. The strength of Casey’s lineage,
his steady demeanor, and the fact that
Smith’s campaign playbook read more
like 2010 than 2012, all contributed to
a Casey victory.
Smith hit hard at what he viewed as
Casey’s lack of achievement in the Senate, calling him ‘Senator Zero’ in a
spate of TV ads that flooded the state’s
airwaves, including the crucial (and very
costly) Philadelphia market. Smith
stressed his background as a farmer
and coal mine owner who created jobs;
the campaigns battled to a tie on the
‘mediscare’ topic. Casey’s TV message,
directed by three separate Democratic
ad agencies, was at times disjointed
and slow to react.
The major theme was Smith’s Tea
Party affiliation and leadership. Somewhat oddly, Team Casey chose a group
of motorcyclists as their spokesmen. In
the end most SuperPACs stayed out of
US Senator Bob Casey, Jr. won election to his second term in the US Senate and his
fifth statewide win taking: 17 counties, 2,920,728 votes, and 53.6 percent of the vote.
the race, with the exception of Freedom
Works, a Tea Party group that focused
its grassroots activists on distributing
literature and yard signs for Smith and
against Casey (Casey War on Coal).
The group even mailed voters a densely
- written 42-page tome on what it saw
as Casey’s many policy shortcomings.
In the end Smith faltered in his home
region, faring worse than expected in
the Pittsburgh media market – his percentage in Allegheny County trailed Mitt
Romney’s and while Romney won Beaver County Smith lost there. Casey’s
margin out of Philadelphia topped
455,000 and his percentage of the
vote there topped the President’s. Casey won all four suburban counties –
Bucks and Chester narrowly and Montgomery and Delaware handily.
Overall Casey won 16 counties while
Obama was winning just 12.
While some of this can be attributed
to Obama’s superior turnout operation,
some credit must also go to Team Casey, who raised enough money ($10
million +) to stay competitive. The
state’s senior Senator, along with his
20 percent business rating from BIPAC,
now goes back to DC to begin his
second term.
Committee assignments are all important in the US
Senate. Seniority is the determinant of rank and influence. Listed below are Senator Casey’s current committee assignments. 113th Congress not announced.
Joint Economics Committee
Chair (will rotate to another member)
Foreign Relations Committee
Chairman - Subcommittee on Near Eastern & South
and Central Asian Affairs
Subcommittee on East Asian &Pacific Affairs
Subcommittee on European Affairs
Subcommittee on International Operations and
Organizations, Human Rights, Democracy &
Global Women's Issues
Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry
Chairman - Subcommittee Nutrition Specialty Crops,
Food & Agricultural Research
Subcommittee on Jobs, Rural Economic Growth &
Energy Innovation
Subcommittee on Livestock, Dairy, Poultry, Marketing & Agriculture Security
Health, Education, Labor & Pensions
Subcommittee on Children and Families
Subcommittee on Primary Health & Aging
Special Committee on Aging
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 6
Here’s the way the election outcome looks to our colleagues at BIPAC in Washington, DC as they peruse the national picture:







Democrats win big in Minnesota and New Hampshire while Republicans win big in Arkansas and North Carolina
Just one party control shift at the gubernatorial level - North Carolina (DEM to GOP)
11 state legislative chambers switched party control (7 for DEM, 4 for GOP)
Republicans now hold an advantage in 29 state houses
Only Iowa, Kentucky and New Hampshire have split party control in the state legislature
California, Texas, Florida and Illinois lead the way in U.S. House freshmen
1,790 women elected to state legislatures, slight increase from current numbers
While the legislative focus the last few years has been more on the United States Congress than at the State House level (or the Round
House if you are in New Mexico), the impact at the state level can never been underestimated even while there is much concern about what
happens in our nation's capital. For many individuals and companies, what happens in their own backyard at the state capital is more important and has a greater impact. With this in mind, here is one last review of the 2012 elections with a focus on changes at the state level.
Democrats and Republicans both have important victories at the state level to feel good about, but on balance the Democratic Party celebrated a few more victories.
Overall Big Winners
From a state perspective, Democrats were big winners in Minnesota and New Hampshire. In Minnesota, Democrats had a net gain of one
seat in the U.S. House, but also switched party control of both state legislative chambers from Republican to Democrat. In New Hampshire,
Democrats won both U.S. House seats by defeating incumbent Republicans and held off a strong GOP challenge to maintain control of the
governor's office. But these impressive wins were not the biggest Democratic win of the night in New Hampshire. In the 400 member state
house, Republicans held a commanding 288 to 102 seat majority (plus 10 vacancies) over Democrats going into the election. Following the
election, Democrats now have a 221 to 179 seat majority.
Republicans were big winners in Arkansas and North Carolina. In Arkansas, Republicans won a majority in the state senate and house for
the first time since reconstruction while also flipping one U.S. House seat. Following redistricting, Republicans in North Carolina were expected to have the largest net gain in U.S. House seats and that is exactly what happened. The GOP gained three seats, with redistricting
being the overwhelming reason why. Republicans in the Tar Heel state also flipped control of the governor's office and won a critical state
Supreme Court race.
Governor
There were only eleven gubernatorial elections in the 2012 election cycle compared to the 36 offices that will be up in 2014. Only the open
seat contest in North Carolina where Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) decided not to seek re-election was there a party change in the highest state
office. Pat McCrory (R) defeated Walter Dalton (D) by a comfortable 54.7% to 43.2% margin to give Republicans the only party switch of the
night. The North Carolina result was expected, but the Republicans missed opportunities for additional gains in Montana, New Hampshire
and Washington. Republicans now control the governor's office in 30 states (a gain of 1), while the Democrats now control 19 states (a loss
of 1), with Gov. Lincoln Chafee (RI) being the lone Independent. Look for several Governors to be drumming up support for a U.S. Senate or
Presidential run in 2014/2016.
State Legislature
Following a primary election season that saw nearly 200 state legislators lose their battle for re-nomination, significant turnover and change
was anticipated in many of our 99 state legislative chambers. Prior to the election, Republicans held control in the majority of state senates
(29 GOP, 19 DEM, 2 TIED) and state houses (31 GOP, 17 DEM, 1 TIED) and were never in serious jeopardy of losing control of a majority of
states.
An amazing twenty-six legislative chambers switched party control in the 2010 and 2011 elections, all away from Democratic control. With
redistricting, Republicans started this election cycle by improving their chances of continuing to hold a partisan advantage in a majority of
states, even in many of the states where the GOP gained an unexpected majority in 2010 or 2011. Eleven state legislative chambers
switched party control with the 2012 elections:




GOP to DEM: ME Senate, ME House, MN Senate, MN House, NH House & NY Senate
TIE to DEM: OR House
TIE to GOP: AK Senate
DEM to GOP: AR Senate, AR House & WI Senate
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 7
Only the dramatic shift in New Hampshire was surprising as many of these bodies moved back to its typical party control following the wave
election of 2010.
Following the 2012 elections, Republicans still enjoy majority status in 29 state senates and 28 state houses while Democrats have a majority in 20 state senates and 21 state houses. Only the Virginia Senate is currently tied (and the GOP holds the tiebreaker). When looking
at which party controls the governor's office and the two state chambers, Republicans have an advantage in 29 states compared to 21 for
Democrats. State legislatures also became slightly more one-party control with a net gain of four more states (for a total of 45 states) that
now have the same party controlling both state legislative chambers. With only one legislative chamber in Nebraska and the Virginia Senate
tied, that leaves only Iowa, Kentucky and New Hampshire as the only states with split party control in the state legislature.
In all 23 states where Republicans have the governor's office and majority control of both state legislative chambers, they also have a majority of that states U.S. House delegation too. Democrats hold that distinction 12 of the 14 states where they dominate the state house
landscape.
U.S. House of Representatives
Several states will need significant updating to their congressional legislative directory following the 2012 elections. Redistricting had a
considerable impact in creating new district lines that resulted in a large number of districts without an incumbent on the November ballot. This resulted in the freshman class in the U.S. House for the 113th Congress to be 84 new members. Here are the sixteen state delegations with at least two House freshmen and the partisan breakdown of those new members:

14 - CA (11 DEM, 3 GOP)

8 - TX (5 DEM, 3 GOP)

7 - FL (4 DEM, 3 GOP)

6 - IL (5 DEM, 1 GOP)

5 - NY (4 DEM, 1 GOP)

4 - NC (4 GOP)

3 - AZ (2 DEM, 1 GOP), IN (3 GOP), OH (2 GOP, 1 DEM), PA (2 GOP, 1 DEM), WA (3 DEM)

2 - KY (2 GOP), MI (1 DEM, 1 GOP), NH (2 DEM), NV (2 DEM), OK (2 GOP)
In addition, party control of the U.S. House delegation changed in eight states:





GOP to DEM: Arizona, Illinois and New Hampshire
TIE to DEM: Minnesota
DEM to TIE: Iowa and New Jersey
GOP to TIE: Nevada
DEM to GOP: North Carolina
Changes in Arizona, Illinois, Iowa, Nevada and New Jersey were in part due to a gain or loss of a seat following reapportionment.
This article, used with permission from the Business Industry Political Action Committee, was written by BIPAC Senior Vice President for
Political Programs, Michael Davis.
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 8
Republican Chris Christie
Democrat Hillary Clinton
No sooner than the 2012 election was over, it is time
again for that time honored quadrennial pastime of picking
the next Presidential Candidates. Given that Pennsylvania
was the tipping point state that sealed the victory for President Obama, Pennsylvania will once again be expected to be
a key battleground for the presidential candidates. This will
mean more visits, more news, more spotlights, and more
money spent in Pennsylvania on political races in the next
four years than in almost any other state.
A few trends are already emerging in the unofficial qualifications to join the 2016 fight for the Presidency. First, being
related to a previous candidate is certainly one trend, but
name recognition and appeal almost exclusively to a swing
state is another. The emerging slate of possible candidates
will, of course, already have high name recognition, well developed networks of both donors and devoted followers, and
political or social positions that make becoming the President
a logical next step for them.
Republicans will have something of a statistical advantage: it’s harder to win for a party that has already held
the office for eight years.
Topping the list of potential Republican candidates, however, is one who is unlikely to run: Jeb Bush. He is a serious
politician, an enthusiastic policy wonk, and a strong bipartisan leader who can field bi-lingual questions in a press
conference. He cannot, however, change the fact that his
last name is Bush. Elder brother George is still anathema to
Democrats and Independents. And three members of the
same family in less than 30 years?
Other Republican names circulating include Chris Christie,
Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul
Ryan, and Rick Santorum.
Pennsylvania Political Report
It’s a long-standing tradition in the Republican party that
the runner-up for the nomination gets a future nod: Reagan
1976/1980; GHW Bush 1980/88; Dole 1988/1996; McCain
2000/2008; Romney 2008/2012. By these rules, former
Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum should be the GOP
nominee. He was the last man standing before Mitt Romney
became the “presumptive nominee.” But it may not happen:
Santorum’s single-mindedness on social issues has always
been something of a stumbling block and is out of synch with
recent Republican efforts at re-branding the party.
Huckabee and Palin would have similar problems. Moreover, neither was a candidate in 2012. They would have a
long way to go to build campaign infrastructure.
If the Republican party had any winners in 2012 they may
have been Wisconsin Congressman and VP candidate Paul
Ryan and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Despite the best
efforts of late night comedians and Saturday Night Live to
lampoon him, Ryan acquitted himself reasonably well on the
national stage. His fiscal conservatism is helped by his
youthfulness and energy.
Young gun Rubio leapt to national attention as a possible
runningmate. He has spent a good deal of time in the last
six months polishing his credentials, speaking skills, and policy positions. Rubio also recently set a fundraising record in
Iowa claiming an early place as a lead contender. Rubio appeals to those who believe the GOP must do more to reach
out to Latino voters, albeit it’s an open question whether a
Cuban is perceived to share culture with other Hispanics.
For part of 2012, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was a
rock star. His Jersey candor and language entertained and
engaged a national audience when they first were introduced
to him. But that act could be old by 2016. Christie enraged
many Republican faithful when he travelled storm-ravaged
Page 9
Democrat Cory Booker
Republican Paul Ryan
beach towns with President Obama praising the Administration’s response to Hurricane Sandy just a week before the
election. Moreover, Christie faces re-election in 2013.
Another Governor very much on the watch list is Louisiana’s Bobby Jindal. The 41 year-old was elected in 2007
and re-elected in 2011. He is the first Indian-American to
become governor of an American state. Prior to being elected governor, Jindal served in Congress and as a healthcare
official in the Louisiana and G. W. Bush Administration. His
support for teaching creationism along with evolution in
public schools stirs opposition.
Finally, Kentucky Senator Paul Rand could follow in his
father’s footsteps taking to the Presidential campaign trail in
2016. In fact, he is already attempting to shore up support
within some of the largest Republican voting blocs by taking
a trip to Israel with religious leaders. While Paul has a lot of
the same supporters as his father, he also has a broader
appeal to the Republican establishment that will be essential
in both the primary and general elections.
The Democratic Party has one superstar waiting in the
wings: 70 percent of registered Democrats polled say they
wish current Secretary of State Hillary Rodam Clinton would
seek the presidency in 2016. She says she is looking forward to some rest and down-time when she leaves her post
in coming weeks, but she hasn’t entirely shut the door to a
candidacy four years off. Will age be a factor with voters?
Clinton will turn 69 just days before the 2016 Election.
By virtue of his current office, Vice President Joe Biden is
prominent on the list of other potential Democratic candidates. But, the gaffe-prone Veep will be very nearly 74-yearsold on Election Day 2016. While he spent 36 years in the US
Senate, it is unlikely his resume will earn him the party’s
nomination.
Pennsylvania native, former Iowa Governor and Secretary
of Agriculture Tom Vilsack is a potential contender. He
should enjoy an obvious advantage in the Iowa Caucuses
which provide top finishers significant fundraising boosts.
US Senator and former Virginia Governor Mark Warner is
similar, in many ways, to Vilsack, but is said to possess a bit
more swagger and charisma. Before taking public office
Warner was a venture capitalist and telecom executive during the early days of the cell phone industry. He will face reelection to the Senate in 2014.
A new name in the Democratic crowd is Cory Booker, the
Mayor of Newark NJ and a potential 2013 challenger to Chris
Christie. Booker was famously supported by Oprah Winfrey
who, once upon a time, raised up another young politician to
the Presidency. Booker is young and energetic. He holds a
BA and an MA from Stanford University, a law degree from
Yale, and a second MA from Oxford where he was a Rhoades
Scholar. He has rushed into a burning building to save a
Newark resident, helped to shovel snow during blizzards,
jumped from his black SUV during Hurricane Sandy to check
on city residents, and has recently grabbed national headlines by trying to live on a food budget equivalent to that of
an individual who lives on food stamps. Booker’s decision on
a 2013 gubernatorial race will have a great impact on his
ability to run for the Presidency in 2016. If you never saw
the humorous Seinfeld-inspired video in which Christie and
Booker collaborated, click here.
The election is nearly four years away, but fundraising and
posturing have already begun. Be grateful you don’t live in
Iowa or New Hampshire. At least we can do some holiday
shopping without interruption by a Presidential campaign or
pollster.
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 10
New Senate Division
23
27
New House Division
92 111
Going into Election Day the GOP’s margin in the Pennsylvania Senate was 29-20 with one Republican vacancy. When the
Senate reconvenes it will be with 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats, the closest margin in “nearly two decades” according to
the Citizen’s Voice newspaper. Democrats took three seats: the 49th District in Erie where Sean Wiley beat Janet Anderson;
the 37th District in Allegheny and Washington counties where State Rep. Matt Smith earned a promotion to the Senate by
besting D. Raja; and in the 15th District, where Democrat Rob Teplitz beat Republican John McNally. GOP incumbent Elder
Vogel of Beaver County won re-election in the 47th District and the GOP challenge to long-time Senator John Wozniak fell just
short; the ‘Woz’ beat back John Houser’s Republican challenge in the 35th District by 2,087 votes.
Speculation began immediately on the potential for a Democrat take-over of the Senate — what would be the first since
1992 when a party switch flipped control — since the 2014 races will include Republican incumbents in tough-to-hold Southeastern Pennsylvania seats.
Democrats were fortunate in 2012 because they did not have any open seats to defend, while the GOP had three open
seats, all in districts with more registered Democrats than Republicans. That meant that, the Wozniak challenge notwithstanding, Senate R’s had to play defense, while Senate D’s could play offense.
Toward the end of the campaign, Senate Democrats took their money out of the 49th and the 37th districts and poured it
into the 15th District – most of Dauphin County plus a sliver of York County. Their gambit paid off, as the additional spending,
primarily on TV, boosted Democrat Rob Teplitz, who then rode the turnout wave in the city of Harrisburg (created by the Obama
campaign) to victory over Republican John McNally.
Amid the Democratic wave at the top of the ticket, the state House GOP margin in the Pennsylvania House actually grew and
looks safe for the near future. Montgomery County Republican Tom Quigley fell to Democrat Mark Painter and Republican Tom
Sankey won the seat of retiring Democrat Bud George in Clearfield County.
No incumbent Democrats were defeated and several GOP incumbents survived by the narrowest of margins – Nick Micozzie
in Delaware County, Justin Simmons in the Lehigh Valley and Rick Saccone in Allegheny and Washington. Saccone’s race was
a rematch against former Rep. Dave Levdansky who he unseated in 2010. That race turned out to be the closest in the state,
with Saccone up by just 112 votes according to the Dept. of State website. Levdansky won the Allegheny portion of the district
but Saccone made up for it in the Washington County portion. The GOP will maintain a 111-92 majority in the House
Pro-business Republicans Reps. Warren Kampf and Dan Truitt of Chester County, and Joe Hacket of Delaware County all
beat back tough challenges from Democrat candidates who are practicing plaintiffs’ attorneys. In a rematch, Kampf defeated
former Rep. Paul Drucker by nearly 800 votes. Truitt beat Democrat Bret Binder, also a trial lawyer, by nearly 900 votes. Democrats who had very close races in 2010 – Bryan Barbin in Johnstown and Steve Santarsiero in lower Bucks County – were reelected handily in November 2012.
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 11
The two House colleagues campaigned actively and aggressively, but
with a civility that earned them both
respect and credit. One newspaper
editorial said, “This is a race where voters can’t lose.”
TREASURER
Kathleen Kane (D)
Attorney General Elect
Rob McCord (D)
Treasurer
ATTORNEY GENERAL:
While the outcome was not entirely
unexpected, the victory of Democrat
Kathleen Kane over Republican David
Freed for the office of Attorney General
raised a lot of eyebrows. Kane is the
first Democrat to win the post since it
was made an elected office in 1980.
She is the first woman ever elected
Attorney General in Pennsylvania.
Truly noteworthy, Kane took 3.02
million votes — 56 percent of those
cast in the Attorney General’s race — to
lead all candidates in Pennsylvania’s
General Election. She topped President
Barack Obama and US Senator Bob
Casey.
Kane’s impressive General Election
win came on the heals of an impressive
upset in the Democratic Primary
against former two-term Congressman
Patrick Murphy. Kane hit Murphy hard
and repeatedly in his home turf of suburban Philadelphia — a strategy that
worked to her two-fold advantage in the
fall when Freed was unable to generate
the funds to get on Philadelphia broadcast television.
Kane also brought out “the big dog”
— former President Bill Clinton. And,
Kane made strong attacks on Governor
Corbett for the potential of misconduct
Eugene DePasquale (D)
Auditor General Elect
in the sexual-abuse prosecution of Jerry
Sandusky. Kane struck a chord with
Pennsylvania voters that transcended
party and gender.
Incumbent Democratic state Treasurer Rob McCord beat GOP nominee
Diana Irey Vaughan with 53 percent of
the vote. Since taking office four years
ago, McCord’s name has been frequently mentioned as a Democratic
gubernatorial candidate. Anything less
than a solid victory could have damaged McCord’s future.
State Rep. Eugene DePasquale won
the Auditor General post with 49.7 percent of the vote over fellow House
member John Maher, with 46.5 percent
-- a 200,000 vote margin. Libertarian
Betsy Summers took nearly four percent of the vote. Both men lost their
current “home” counties, York and Allegheny.
After taking office, McCord established a quarterly newsletter and spent
countless days on the roads explaining
the duties of his office and opining on
matters of fiscal and economic policy.
It must have been frustrating, therefore, to see polling 60 days before the
election that had McCord and Vaughan
in a statistical deadheat with most voters saying they were undecided or did
not have enough information about the
two candidates.
Interestingly, Maher who will continue to represent part of suburban Allegheny County in the state House hails
from Central Pennsylvania, while DePasquale will give-up his York seat
when he takes the oath as Auditor was
born and raised in Pittsburgh.
Vaughan a five-term county commission whose husband had deployed to
Afghanistan in 2011 not returning until
May 2012 proved herself “Army
Strong” and a capable campaigner
who could get future consideration for
higher office.
Both offered straightforward arguments to voters for garnering their support: Maher explained he simply, “I am
a CPA by training and spent 20 years as
an auditor.” DePasquale’s message
may have played on voter cynicism:
“With Republicans controlling the Governor’s office, Senate and House,” he
argued, “doesn’t it make sense to have
a Democrat auditing the books.”
All three GOP row office candidates
were outraised by their Democrat opponents, though with his own loans counted Maher had more to spend than DePasquale. Diana Irey Vaughan apparently did not air even one TV or radio
spot. Neither Freed nor Maher were
able to get on broadcast TV in the Philly
market (home to 40% of the state’s
voters). Freed did air cable spots there.
AUDITOR GENERAL:
Pennsylvania Political Report
Page 12
Pennsylvania Society Readers’ Poll
Over 240 readers of the Pennsylvania
Political Report responded to this edition’s poll. Nearly 43 percent attended the annual Pennsylvania Society
festivities in New York City, while 54
percent did not, and 3 percent had the
good sense to “plead the fifth.”
More than 93 percent of respondents
reported their professional duties involve public or government affairs.
Five generations of the Chase Family voted together on Election Day.
If the electioneering and negative
advertising diminished your enthusiasm for voting, let us renew your faith.
Harrisburg was witness to a wonderful
display of patriotism and democracy on
Election Day.
Shirley Wilkerson, mother of 14 and
grandmother/great grandmother of 81
— yes 81 offspring in succeeding generations — joined with her 80-year-old
uncle, Andrew Chase, as they proudly
led their family of five generations to
local polling places.
The family spent five hours in a caravan that travelled from poll to poll in
Harrisburg supporting one another as
they voted. The parade led off with the
eldest — Andy Chase — casting the family’s first ballot at St. Michael Evangelical Lutheran Church in Harrisburg’s 4th
Ward. They ended their pilgrimage at
Susquehanna Township’s 7th Ward in
capital city's suburbs.
The family created tee-shirts for the
event and decorated their lead vehicle
in patriotic bunting and colors. Family
members and friends gathered at the
matriarch’s home to celebrate the day.
“We sang, we prayed, and we
celebrated along the way,” said Mrs.
Wilkerson who has been a licensed
Pennsylvania Political Report
cosmetologist for 53 years and is the
owner/operator of a beauty shop.
“Voting is a privilege and a responsibility,” declared Wilkerson who encourages every American to take part. “We
had six generations of family members
in the lead vehicle,” she reported. “The
youngest are not of legal age to vote,
but riding along with us sends a strong
message to them: each vote counts!”
Mrs. Wilkerson commented, “We not
only led by example, but by inclusion.
Our family takes voting very seriously.”
Age has not damped Mrs. Wilkerson’s voting enthusiasm or sense of
humor. “Yes,” she declared with a grin,
“we are all registered votes in Dauphin
County and we had photo identification
— just in case!”
Andy Chase, who at 80 still works
every day — now looking after the facilities for PBC and the other tenants of
the shared building — confessed the
group may not have voted for all of PEG
PAC’s endorsed candidates. “But we
made sure to vote,” said Chase, “and
that’s the important thing.”
PBC and PEG PAC couldn’t agree
more. THANK YOU, to the Wilkerson/
Chase family for reminding us that we
can’t take democracy for granted.
The most frequently cited reason for
absence was “other obligations.”
Of those who went, only 38 percent
attended the dinner, but many, many
dinner attendees remarked on the
inspiring quality of Gold Medal
honoree M. Night Shyamalan’s story
and acceptance speech.
A number of events from small private
functions to heavily attended events
ranked among the most memorable or
best activities of the weekend, but the
strongest showing was made by the
annual PMA seminar cited for the caliber of its guests and the quality of
their remarks. The bar fight may have
been the runner-up.
Politics, of course, drive Pennsylvania
Society and in 2012 it was largely
about the gubernatorial race coming
in two years. Those who generated
the most buzz did so in the negative:
readers shared their astonishment,
wonder, and incredulity that former
Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper,
state Senator Mike Stack, or County
Commissioner Bruce Castor would
think themselves capable of a run.
One-third of those who responded
(33.5%) think Rob McCord “would be
the most formidable General Election
challenger to Tom Corbett in 2014.”
More than one-fourth think there is a
better than 50/50 chance Corbett will
face a Primary Election challenger.