strategy | the bottom line

Transcription

Strategy | 10 December
2013
STRATEGY
STRATEGY| |THE
THEBOTTOM
BOTTOMLINE
LINE
Strategy
Update
| 10
January
2014
14
April
2014
Strategy
Update
| 14
April
2014
2014
Year
of cup
Risks and Opportunities
Storm–in
a tea
Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst
John Rachmat
+6221 5296 9542
[email protected]
Left
its own,
we expect
theresults
Indonesian
grow strongly
in 2014
Quickoncount
estimates
of the
of the economy
legislativetoelection
last week
were
with
in the
consumer
spending,
investment
spending
badly recoveries
received by
stock market
because
(a) PDI-P’s
results and
cameexports.
below
However
twoand
risks
– theunder-performance
Presidential election,
and whether
Bank
expectation,
(b) loom
this PDI-P
is interpreted
to mean
Indonesia
would
continue
its
efforts
to
slow
down
the
economy.
Jokowi’s chances in the upcoming presidential election had dimmed. The first
reason is not realistic, and the second is plainly wrong in our view.
OVERWEIGHT
FIGURE 1. INDONESIAN 2014 EQUITY OUTLOOK IN MANSEK’S VIEW
Bull Case
5,550
Bull
Case
5,550
Base Case
4,550
Base
Case
4,550
Bear Case
4,000
Bear
Case
4,000
3,000
Bull and Base scenarios equally likely
expectation.
It atranspires
–Over-blown
assuming Indonesia
elects
marketnow
that
some
investors
expected
PDI-P
friendly President and Bank Indonesia
to
win
over
30%
of
the
popular
vote
in
does not raise BI rate further (our Bull
the
legislative
election.
This
is
not
Case) we expect JCI to end 2014 at 5,550.
realistic
view.
PDI-PJCI
won
If
BI rateinisour
raised
weYes
expect
to33.7%
close
of
the
popular
votes
in
1999,
but
that
2014 at 4,550 (our Base Case). We assess
was
right
after
the
fall
of
Soeharto.
The
the Bull and Base scenarios as equally
party
won
a
sympathy
vote
as
the
likely with 40% probability each.
opposition party during his rule; the
Bear
Case
cannot be
ruled out. There
situation
is different
in 2014.
remains a chance that Indonesia elects a
PDI-P underperformance
= Jokowi’s
market-unfriendly
leader, and
at the
prospects
dimming
?
In
our
this
same time Bank Indonesia view
tightens
interpretation
is
plainly
wrong.
A
voter
monetary liquidity further (our Bear
who would
Joko Widodo
(or
Case).
In thatvote
case for
we expect
JCI to end
Jokowi)
might
not
have
voted
for
PDI-P.
2014 at 4,000. We assess its probability at
In 2004 and 2009, the Democrat Party
20%.
won just 7% and 20.8% respectively in
the legislative election; yet its
Dec-14
Dec-14
JCI Fcast by Mansek
JCI Fcast by Mansek
Aug-14
Aug-14
Apr-14
Apr-14
Aug-13
Dec-13
Dec-13
JCI
JCI
Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas
Aug-13
2,500
Apr-13
2,500
Apr-13
11,800
11,825
Dec-12
11,400
9,388
10,452
Dec-12
12,171
12,189
US$1 = Rp (average)
Aug-12
US$1 = Rp (year end)
Aug-12
7.75
Apr-12
5.5
7.5
Apr-12
8.4
BI Rate at Year End (%)
Dec-11
Inflation (YoY %)
Dec-11
5.6
Sep-11
5.8
Sep-11
4,550
May-11
4,274
May-11
Real GDP (% yoy)
2014F
Jan-11
JCI (year end)
2013F
2013
Jan-11
Key
Key Forecasts
Forecasts
FIGURE
6,000 1. INDONESIAN 2014 EQUITY OUTLOOK IN MANSEK’S
10-Jan-14 VIEW
4,254.97
6,000
14-Apr-14
5,500
4,864.88
Apr-14
5,500
4,800
5,000
Apr-14
4,800
5,000
4,500
Mar-13
4,500
4,000
4,545
Mar-13
4,000
4,545 Oct-13 Dec-13
3,500
4,000
4,000
Oct-13 Dec-13
3,500
4,000 4,000
3,000
The case for Indonesia in 2014 – the
presidential economy
nominee Susilo
Indonesian
shouldBambang
benefit
Yudhoyono
won
both
presidential
from election-induced growth
in
contest withspending,
over 60%a ofnew
the popular
consumer
marketvotes. The
key factor
is the
Vice
friendly
President,
narrowing
Current
Presidential
candidate;
we
need
a
figure
Account Deficit thanks to rising CPO
who can
galvanise
to
price,
gradual
decline the
in oilparliament
price, and US
support
reforms.
economic recovery. Consensus 2014
earnings
forecasts
in generaloutlook.
have
The real risks
are economic
moderated,
making
them
more
easily
Slowing real GDP growth in 1Q14 (to be
deliverable
announced and
in beatable.
early May) would hurt
1Q14
earnings
results
(to are
be released
by
Our top sector picks
plantation,
end
Apr).
The
early
indicators
however
consumers and poultry. Our Top Picks
veer towards
the positive.
consist
of AALI,
LSIP, BWPT (riding the
CPO
upturn), ICBP,
KLBF,
Focusprice
on fundamental
value
is theLPPF,
best
RALS
andfor
CPIN
(riding
the times.
consumer
guidance
these
uncertain
We
spending
burst)
the
add PWON,
CTRSand
andSMGR
SGRO (riding
to Mansek
recovery
in bothdropping
consumer
and
Top Buy portfolio,
AALI, LSIP
investment
and SMGR. spending).
Please see important disclosure at the back of this report
Strategy| |1414April
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Table of Contents
Opportunity to Buy vs the Real Risks .............................................................. 3 The recent correction to the JCI was based on misplaced concerns, and so this
presented buying opportunities to investors. Yet finding values amidst a
strongly rising stock market is difficult; we introduce a new methodology to do
this. We add SGRO, PWON and CTRS to Mansek Top Buy Picks. ............................................ 3 Unrealistic expectation no lasting damage .................................................... 4 The Jakarta Stock Exchange suffered a bout of nervousness after legislative
election on 9th April did not result in the expected “landslide” for PDI-P. We
argue however that such expectation was wrong from the beginning, and that
Jokowi’s chances in the presidential election are not dimmed at all................................... 4 Economy – where the real risks lie .................................................................. 9 A bullish equity performance in 2014 requires BOTH politics and economy to
perform. There are clear risks of an economic slow-down, with looming 1Q14
real GDP growth and earnings results to shed some light. Indication from the
ground so far however veers towards the positive. ................................................................... 9 Stock Picks : Searching for Value ................................................................... 15 After rising 15.1% YTD to the legislative election day, the JCI fell 3.1% in one day
due to disappointing politics. Under such highly volatile market conditions, we
introduce an investment methodology that focuses on long-term values. We
are adding PWON, CTRS, SGRO to our Top Buy Picks. ............................................................ 15 Sectoral Outlook ............................................................................................. 26 Mansek’s valuation methodology is based on bottom-up analysis but some
sectors are well over-represented : banking, plantation, property and just one
agricultural stock. These sectors tend to offer the best long term potential at the
cheapest valuation available today. ............................................................................................. 26 Appendix 1. EPS Forecast and 12m Roll Fwd PER ........................................ 38 Appendix 2. Mandiri Sekuritas Earnings Guide............................................ 58 Page 2 of 60
Page 2 of 60
Strategy | 14 April 2014
ASDF | 17 Februari 2009
Opportunity to Buy vs the Real Risks
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, The
Jl. Jend.recent
Gatot Subroto
Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta
12190,
correction
to the
JCIIndonesia
was based
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri
5711 (Debt Research),
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
on misplaced concerns, and so this
presented buying opportunities to investors. Yet finding values amidst a
strongly
stock market
is difficult;masa
we introduce
a new
methodology
to tahun
do
Industri rising
pembiayaan
telah mengalami
pertumbuhan
pesat
sepanjang lima
this.
We add
SGRO,
PWON
and
CTRS to Mansek
BuyCAGR
Picks.21.93%, sehingga pada
terakhir,
dimana
jumlah
aset
bertumbuh
dengan Top
tingkat
kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
Identifying
long term values
pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
The
Jakarta Composite
Index
reacted
the kredit
quick count
estimates
of the
pembiayaan
konsumen,
sewa(JCI)
guna
usahabadly
dan to
kartu
mengalami
pertumbuhan
results of last week’s legislative election, falling 3.1% on the following day after rising by
dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
15.1% YTD to the last trading day before the election.
InKinerja
this report
we pembiayaan
argue that the
various
on heightened
political 2008
risks are
industri
dalam
lima concerns
tahun terakhir
hingga September
dapat
misplaced, and hence the negative market reaction is likely a storm in a tea cup that
dilihat pada Tampilan I.
offers better value to investors in Indonesian equities. The critical factor here is a strong
Vice Presidential candidate to help Joko Widodo, the market-preferred presidential
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA
INDUSTRI support
PEMBIAYAAN
DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR
candidate,
to galvanise
parliamentary
for reforms.
Rp miliar
We introduce
a new investment methodology to help investors pick stocks based on
their long term
values, and using this methodology we add Sampoerna Agro3,500
(SGRO),
200,000
Pakuwon Jati (PWON) and Ciputra Surya (CTRS) to Mansek Top Buy Portfolio. We drop
3,000
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), London Sumatra Plantations (LSIP) and Semen Indonesia
150,000
(SMGR) as they no longer present attractive values after recent stock price rally. 2,500
2,000 its
However the real risks lie on Indonesia’s economic outlook and by extension
100,000
corporate profitability outlook. Our Bull Case, projecting a 30% appreciation in1,500
the JCI
this year to close the year at 5,550 critically depends on a strengthening economy. Our
1,000
50,000
Base Case projecting
a 6.5% appreciation in the JCI foresees instead a slight slip in
500
economic growth to 5.6% this year (vs 5.8% last year).
0 a slow down in real GDP growth is that it would negatively0 impact
The problem with
corporate earnings growth
– except 2005
for a few 2006
sectors that
more on exports
2003 also 2004
2007depend
Oct-08
than the domesticTotal
economy
such
as
the
plantation
sector.
In
our
opinion
it would be
Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa Guna Usaha
difficult to defend a 30% equity value appreciation when profits are falling (or even
Anjakthe
Piutang
Kartu Kredit
slowing down). Hence
critical dates would
be end of April (release of the Q1 2014
earnings results) and early May (publication of the Q1 2014 real GDP growth).
Sumber: Bank Indonesia
FIGURE 2. MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO
Salah satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
2014
EPS Indonesia per
dengan lembaga
perbankan.
Hal ini dibuktikan dari
statistik
Bank
Stock
Price
Starting
PERdata
2014F
Target
Ticker Company's Name
Changes
Growth
September 2008
yang menyatakan
bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber
pendanaan perusahaan14-Apr-14
Stock Price
(x)
Price
Fcast
AISA
perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi
27,750
21,200
30.9%
15.4
57.9%
25,000
sebesar
11%
dan
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya
sebesar
12.1%.
Data
ini
mempertegas
BW Plantations
1,315
1,180
11.4%
14.7
64.0%
1,750
adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan
yang 31.6%
cukup besar13.4
atas perusahaan-perusahaan
London Sumatra Plantations (dropped)
2,250
1,710
49.4%
2,200
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
Tampilan 2-9.0%
menunjukkan16.0
komposisi 9.9%
sumber pendanaan
Semen Indonesia (dropped)
15,925
17,500
16,600
perusahaan
pembiayaan.
Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food
2,065
2,000
3.3%
15.9
37.1%
2,700
BBTN
Bank Tabungan Negara
AALI
BWPT
LSIP
SMGR
Astra Agro Lestari (dropped)
1,250
1,295
-3.5%
7.4
12.0%
1,500
BJBR
BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten
1,145
1,040
10.1%
7.4
9.4%
1,300
BSDE
Bumi Serpong Damai
1,540
1,710
-9.9%
12.5
-17.5%
2,000
LPCK
Lippo Cikarang
7,650
7,800
-1.9%
9,850
PWON
Pakuwon Jati (addition)
SGRO
Sampoerna Agro (addition)
CTRS
Ciputra Surya (addition)
6.6
36.5%
345
11.1
32.0%
430
1,995
12.0
164.3%
3,000
8.6
27.8%
4,000
2,285
MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO
1,049.7
1,000.0
5.0%
Jakarta Composite Index
4,864.9
4,254.8
14.3%
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates
Please
disclosure at the back of this report
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 3 of 60
Page 3 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Unrealistic expectation no lasting damage
The Jakarta Stock Exchange suffered a bout of nervousness after legislative
election on 9th April did not result in the expected “landslide” for PDI-P. We
argue however that such expectation was wrong from the beginning, and that
Jokowi’s chances in the presidential election are not dimmed at all.
Synching expectation to reality
The expectation that PDI-P would win a “landslide” in the legislative election because it
had nominated the Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo (better known by his nick-name
Jokowi) as its Presidential candidate is never realistic in our opinion.
In its entire history, PDI-P won over 30% of the popular vote only once – in the 1999
general election. The political background was ideal for PDI-P then. Soeharto had just
fallen off power. PDI-P was the only clear opposition party, and had suffered because of
that fact over many years of Soeharto's rule. It had also never been in power at that time
– so it had never disappointed the public. As a result the party competed in the 1999
general election under ideal circumstances. Even then it only won 33.7% of the popular
votes.
2014 is clearly different from 1999. PDI-P had been the governing party and its
Chairman was the country's President during 2001-04; this loss of “governing
innocence” in our opinion played a major role in determining its actual performance
during the recent legislative election. The party itself only targeted winning 27% of the
popular votes (and every competing political party put up targets that were clearly
more aspirational than realistic) – see Figure 3.
FIGURE 3. PARTIES’ INTERNAL TARGET VS QUICK COUNT RESULTS
PDI-P
27.0
19.2
Golkar
15.0
Gerindra
11.8
Demokrat
9.4
PKB
9.1
PAN
7.0
NasDem
6.7
PPP
6.7
Hanura
5.1
PBB
1.5
PKPI
0.9
0
20.0
15.0
11.6
15.0
7.5
PKS
15.0
20.0
12.0
13.0
Target
8.0
Kompas quick count
3.5
5
30.0
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: Kompas
Where investors can expect a landslide is in the Presidential election, we believe. The
recently circulating interpretation that PDI-P's under-performance in the legislative
election implies Jokowi's chances in the Presidential election have dimmed is just plain
wrong in our opinion. Jokowi brings with him a strong track-record of good governance
during his time as Mayor of Solo (2005-12) and Governor of Jakarta (2012 – now). His
popularity is clearly distinct from PDI-P's standing with the general public.
Page 4 of 60
Page 4 of 60
FIGURE 4. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2009
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
Megawati
Soekarno
Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masaPutri/
pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
Prabowo
terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh
dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
Subianto
26.8 Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
kuartal III 2008 mencapai Rp153.6triliun.
pembiayaan anjak piutang
tidak mengalami
pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
Susilo
Muhammad
Bambang
Jusufkartu
Kalla/ kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan
Yudhoyono/
Wiranto
dengan tingkat CAGR
masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77%
dan 12.25%
Boediono
12.4
60.8
Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat
Source: KPU
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR
Rp miliar
There is a precedence
for this dichotomy between a political party and its presidential
candidate's 200,000
differing popularity, and hence election performace. Susilo Bambang
3,500
Yudhoyono (better known by his nick name SBY), the presidential candidate from Partai
3,000
Demokrat, won the Presidential election in one round in 2009 with a landslide 60.8% of
150,000
the popular vote – vs his rivals Megawati Soekarnoputri (26.8%) and Jusuf Kalla2,500
(12.4%).
See Figure 4.
2,000
100,000
1,500
FIGURE 5. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2009 AND THE RESULTING PARLIAMENTARY CONFIGURATION
50,000
2009 parliament seat
2009 legislative election vote
PDIP, 14.0%
PKS,
7.9%
PAN, 6.0%
0
PDIP, 16.8%
2003
PPP, 5.3%
Golkar, 14.5%
PKB, 5.0%
Demokrat,
20.8%
2005
2006
2007
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Anjak Piutang
Golkar,
18.9%
Kartu
Kredit
500
0
PKS, 10.2%
Oct-08
Sewa
PAN,Guna
8.2% Usaha
PPP, 6.8%
Gerindra, 4.5%
Hanura, 3.8%
Salah
Others, 16.5%
Source: KPU
2004
1,000
PKB, 5.0%
Demokrat,
26.4% hubungannya
adalah
satu
karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan
yang
cukup
Gerindra,
4.6%erat
PBB, 1.8%
dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank
Indonesia
per
Hanura,
3.0%
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi
sebesar
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya in
sebesar
Data iniparty
mempertegas
Yet
during11%
the dan
preceding
legislative election
2009, 12.1%.
SBY's political
(Partai
yangvote
cukup
perusahaan-perusahaan
Demokrat)
only won 20.8% of the popular
– not besar
too far atas
from the
predicted PDI-P's
pembiayaan in
terhadap
perbankan.
Tampilan
2 menunjukkan
sumber example
pendanaan
performance
this year's
legislative
election.
See Figure 5.komposisi
A more extreme
can
be
gleaned
from
the
2004
presidential
election
which
SBY
won
(after
two
rounds
of
perusahaan pembiayaan.
voting) with 61% of the popular votes in the final round. See Figure 6. Yet in the
preceding legislative election, Partai Demokrat only won 7% of the popular votes. See
Figure 7.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 5 of 60
Page 5 of 60
FIGURE 6. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2004
Vote in the second round
Vote in the first round
H. Wiranto/
Salahudin
Wahid
22%
Megawati/
Hasyim Muzadi
27%
Amin Rais/
Siswono
Yudohusodo
15%
Megawati/
Hasyim Muzadi
39%
Susilo
Bambang
Yudhoyono/
Jusuf Kalla
61%
Hamzah Haz/
Agum Gumelar
3%
Susilo
Bambang
Yudhoyono/
Jusuf Kalla
34%
Source: KPU
So the evidence is clear – presidential candidates stand on their own personal record,
and their chances are clearly distinct from the popularity of the political parties
supporting them. Therefore if the stock market had tumbled because it needed to
synch its unrealistic expectation to life's realities, we consider that a healthy correction
that will form a solid basis for further value appreciation down the line.
A more fractious parliament ?
The other reason offered to derive a negative conclusion from the recent legislative
election is that PDI-P's under-performance will result in a “more fractious” parliament,
thus hampering the new president's effectiveness in pushing through difficult reforms.
This fear, however, is not supported by the evidence. When we compare SBY's first
presidential term (2004-09) to his second (2009-13), we note that he pushed through
the difficult-to-pass cuts in fuel subsidy more effectively during his first presidential
term (three times, twice in 2005 and once in 2008) than in his second term (once, in
2013 – after prolonged delays as it was originally scheduled for 2012). Did this come
about because the 2009-13 parliament was “more fractious” and SBY had less support
than in the 2004-09 parliament ? The answer is No. His Partai Demokrat controlled
26.4% seat in the 2009-13 parliament vs just 10% in the 2004-09 parliament. See Figures
5 and 7. One can say that the 2009 parliament was significantly “less fractious” than the
2004 parliament, yet the effect on reforms is the opposite of what the Street seems to
assume.
FIGURE 7. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2004 AND THE RESULTING PARLIAMENTARY CONFIGURATION
2004 legislative election vote
PKB, 11%
PPP, 8%
Demokrat, 7%
PDIP, 19%
PPP, 11%
Demokrat,
10%
PKS, 8%
PKB, 9%
PAN, 9%
PKS, 7%
PAN, 6%
Golkar, 22%
Others (14
Partai), 13%
PBB, 3%
PBR, 2%
PBB, 2%
PBR, 2%
PDIP, 20%
PDS, 2%
Golkar, 23%
Others (14
Partai), 2%
PDS, 2%
Source: KPU
Page 6 of 60
Page 6 of 60
Another fact to show the fallacy of this “fractious parliament” argument is the result of
the
1999 Ageneral
As we
mentioned
earlier, this was the year when PDI-P won
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri
Sekuritas
subsidiary elections.
of PT Bank Mandiri
(Persero)
Tbk
a Subroto
resultKav.
it 36
became
the
party
with the largest number
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, big.
Jl. Jend.As
Gatot
- 38, Jakarta
12190,
Indonesia
Industri
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
5711 (Debt
+62 21 Indonesia’s
527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
(33.1%).
If Research),
we
measure
parliamentary fractiousness
of parliamentary seats
by how large the seat
allocation taken by the most dominant party (or parties) is, then the 1999 parliament is
Industri pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
the least fractious of all the three post-Soeharto parliaments that Indonesia had seen.
terakhir,
jumlah
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkat CAGR
sehingga
pada
Yet
the twodimana
presidents
thataset
governed
during
this 1999-2004
period21.93%,
were known
either
2008 mencapai
Rp153.6triliun.
Dalamtenure)
hal pembiayaan
dikucurkan,
forkuartal
endlessIIIbickering
with the parliament
(Gus Dur’s
or for lack ofyang
reforms
action
pembiayaantenure).
anjak Hence
piutangwetidak
mengalami
pertumbuhan
yang
berarti,
sedangkan
(Megawati’s
view the
theory that
PDI-P’s failing
to win
by a landslide
inpembiayaan
the recent legislative
election
somehow
missed
opportunity
as not supported
by
konsumen,
sewa isguna
usaha adan
kartu
kredit mengalami
pertumbuhan
history.
FIGURE 8. LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 1999 AND
THE RESULTING
PARLIAMENTARY
Kinerja
industri pembiayaan
dalamCONFIGURATION
lima tahun terakhir hingga September 2008 dapat
1999 election vote dilihat pada Tampilan I.
PKB, 12.6%
PKB, 11.0%
PPP, 10.7%
PPP, 12.6%
Rp miliar
Golkar, 22.4%
PAN, 7.1%
PBB, 1.9%
200,000
PK, 1.4%
PAN, 7.4%
Golkar, 26.0%
PBB, 2.8%
3,500
PKP, 1.0%
PK, 1.5%
3,000
150,000
PNU, 0.6%
PKP, 0.9%
2,500
PNU, 1.1%
Others (39
100,000
partai), 8.4%
PDIP, 33.7%
50,000
Source: KPU
2,000
PDIP, 33.1%
Others (39
1,500
partai),
3.7%
1,000
500
0
0
In short, the theory that
Jokowi 2004
will have 2005
a harder 2006
time pushing
2003
2007 through
Oct-08reforms if PDIP's seat allocation in the new parliament is substantially less than expected has no basis
Konsumen
Sewa Guna Usaha
in reality. What is Total
truly Asset
critical would be Pembiayaan
Jokowi's running
mate, the
Vice Presidential
candidate. This person
will need to have
ability to galvanise support in the
Anjak Piutang
Kartuthe
Kredit
parliament beyond PDI-P's own direct influence.
NoSumber:
doubtBank
the Indonesia
inter-party negotiation over the coming months will bring some degree
of uncertainty to the stock market, but we are confident pragmatism will prevail in the
end.
dengan lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per
sebesar 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas
adanya keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan
pembiayaan terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 7 of 60
Page 7 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
FIGURE 9. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN THE US AND EUROPE
UK
2.7
2.7
2013
USA
1.9
2014F
1.3
1.1
Rusia
0.4
Germany
0.2
France
1.9
1.0
-0.3
Ireland
Spain
-1.2
Portugal
-1.3
2.0
0.9
1.1
-1.9
Italy
Greece
2.7
0.5
-3.9
0.1
Source: Bloomberg
FIGURE 10. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN ASIA PACIFIC
China
Philippines
6.5
7.7
7.4
7.2
5.8
5.4
Indonesia
4.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
Malaysia
India
4.0
3.8
Singapore
3.0
South …
2013
3.6
2.9
3.0
Thailand
2.1
Taiwan
2014F
3.2
1.5
1.4
Japan
Source: Bloomberg
FIGURE 11. ECONOMIC GROWTH OUTLOOK IN LATIN AMERICA
4.1
3.9
Chile
Argentina*
4.0
0.0
2.3
Brasil
Mexico
1.9
*2013 forecast
1.1
3.2
2013
2014F
Source: Bloomberg
Page 8 of 60
Page 8 of 60
Economy – where the real risks lie
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, A
Jl. Jend.
Gatot Subroto
Kav. performance
36 - 38, Jakarta 12190,in
Indonesia
bullish
equity
2014
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
requires BOTH politics and economy to
perform. There are clear risks of an economic slow-down, with looming 1Q14
real
GDP growth
andtelah
earnings
resultsmasa
to shed
some light.
Indication
Industri
pembiayaan
mengalami
pertumbuhan
pesat
sepanjangfrom
lima the
tahun
ground
so dimana
far however
thedengan
positive.
terakhir,
jumlahveers
aset towards
bertumbuh
tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
Why
economic outlook is key
Whereas
the perception
heightened
political
Indonesia,
in our pertumbuhan
opinion, is
pembiayaan
konsumen, ofsewa
guna usaha
dan risks
kartuin kredit
mengalami
storm in a tea cup, the real risks lie in Indonesia's economic outlook.
Some investors find this assertion surprising. In their view as long as Indonesia's
economy
a rate that isdalam
only marginally
than
last year's
5.8% (Mansek's
Kinerja grows
industribypembiayaan
lima tahun slower
terakhir
hingga
September
2008 dapat
base case forecast a 5.6% real GDP growth this year), then the stock market should be
“fine”.
The
reasons offered
for this
view are two-fold
: (a) the
average
economic
growth
rate
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA
INDUSTRI
PEMBIAYAAN
DALAM
LIMA
TAHUN
TERAKHIR
over the 2001-13 period is 5.45%, and hence a 5.6% growth this year would constitute
Rp miliar performance, and (b) at 5.6% growth rate Indonesia's economy
an “above average”
would be the
second strongest growing economy after China this year. See Figures
200,000
3,500 9,
10 and 11.
3,000
This all boils150,000
down to what investors mean by a “fine” performance by the stock market.
2,500
In our analysis a 5.6% economic growth rate, essentially a slight slip vs last year's
2,000 or
performance, would equate to Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) valuation of 4,550
100,000
roughly 6.5% appreciation from 2013's close. If that is what a “fine” performance
1,500 is
meant by investors, then that may indeed what we get in the end.
50,000
1,000
However Mansek's bull case, based on an assumption of 6% real GDP growth this
500 year
(i.e. a clear accelaration in economic growth vs last year), would equate to a JCI
0 is that
valuation of 5,5500 or roughly 30% appreciation from 2013's close. The irony then
some investors believe2003
the JCI can
this lofty 2006
valuation2007
level even
with a slight slip
2004reach 2005
Oct-08
in the economic growth
this
year,
thanks
to
the
“Jokowi
effect”.
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa Guna Usaha
Such expectation
hasPiutang
no basis in reality
our view
Anjak
Kartuin
Kredit
If nothing else, the much-hyped “Jokowi effect” at the recent legislative election had
turned
out to be tepid. If it can disappoint so badly on the political front, it can also
disappoint badly on the capital markets front.
More to the point, however, we believe stock market valuation is driven by expectation
lembaga –perbankan.
Hal ini
dibuktikan
dari datais statistik
Indonesia
ofdengan
future changes
NOT by current
ranking.
If an economy
expectedBank
to weaken,
thenper
September
2008
yang
menyatakan
bahwa
sebanyak
78%
sumber
pendanaan
perusahaanits stock market value is likely to weaken too and conversely if an economy is expected
darivalue.
dana The
perbankan,
disusul
oleh
toperusahaan
strengthen,pembiayaan
so would itsbersumber
stock market
exception
would
bependanaan
economiesobligasi
that
aresebesar
far more
on international
than12.1%.
domestic
–
11% dependent
dan pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnyatrade
sebesar
Data consumption
ini mempertegas
Singapore,
for
example
–
in
which
case
the
global
economic
outlook
probably
plays
a
larger
role
on
stock
market
values
than
their
own
economic
prospects.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 9 of 60
Page 9 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
7.9
7.6
7.4
7.9
7.7
7.5
7.8
7.7
7.4
6.6
8
11.4
12.1
10.3
9.6
9.8
9.8
9.5
9.2
8.9
10
9.7
12
8.2
14
7.6
16
10.4
9.6
9.1
9.5
11.2
10.1
9.8
9.9
12.4
13.6
12.2
12.5
14
14.8
14.4
13.6
11.3
10.8
9.7
FIGURE 12. CHINA REAL GDP GROWTH (% YOY)
6
4
2
Mar‐04
Jun‐04
Sep‐04
Dec‐04
Mar‐05
Jun‐05
Sep‐05
Dec‐05
Mar‐06
Jun‐06
Sep‐06
Dec‐06
Mar‐07
Jun‐07
Sep‐07
Dec‐07
Mar‐08
Jun‐08
Sep‐08
Dec‐08
Mar‐09
Jun‐09
Sep‐09
Dec‐09
Mar‐10
Jun‐10
Sep‐10
Dec‐10
Mar‐11
Jun‐11
Sep‐11
Dec‐11
Mar‐12
Jun‐12
Sep‐12
Dec‐12
Mar‐13
Jun‐13
Sep‐13
Dec‐13
Mar‐14F
0
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg
A good illustration of this theme is China, reputedly the world's manufacturing centre.
China's economic growth rates had been well above any other countries over the past
two decades or so, but they peaked in Q2 2007 at 14.8%. Since then it has been
declining almost consistently, except for a short upward blip in 2010. See Figure 12. Its
stock market valuation reflect this development almost perfectly. Taking the CSI 300
index as a proxy for China's stock market value, it peaked in mid 2007 but has since
then been consistently declining – except for a brief period during H1 2009 that may
well reflect accurate expectation of that short economic recovery in 2010. See Figure 13.
FIGURE 13. CSI 300 INDEX (GREEN = RISING GDP, PINK = FALLING GDP GROWTH)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
0
Source: CEIC, Bloomberg
Page 10 of 60
Page 10 of 60
Yet throughout all these periods, China's economic growth continued to be No 1 in the
world. That obviously did not stop its stock market valuation from crashing, and to
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
assume a long-term down trend. Hence we assert that to say that because Indonesia's
economic
growth
would
bePembiayaan
No(Debt
2 inSales)
the world therefore its stock market value should
Multifinance
+62 21 527/ 5701
see strong appreciation is a misreading of what drives valuation. It is expectation of
Industrithat
pembiayaan
telah
mengalami
CHANGE
matters, not
current
ranking.masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
Improving Current Account outlook
Sopembiayaan
what is Indonesia's
economic
outlook
for 2014 pertumbuhan
?
anjak piutang
tidak
mengalami
yang berarti, sedangkan
pembiayaan
guna usaha
dan prospects
kartu kredit
pertumbuhan
There
are two konsumen,
elements in sewa
Indonesia's
economic
thatmengalami
concern investors
the
most
– itstingkat
CurrentCAGR
Account
Balance and24.41%,
its economic
growth.
dengan
masing-masing
25.77%
dan 12.25%
On the Current Account front, we believe the prognosis is favourable. Indonesia's trade
Kinerjahas
industri
dalam
tahunand,
terakhir
September
dapat
balance
turnedpembiayaan
for the better
fromlima
Oct 2013
after ahingga
one-month
blip in2008
January
(caused
by
timing
effect
of
the
raw
mineral
ore
ban
and
adverse
weather
effect
on
oil
and gas production), it has returned to surplus in Feb 2014. See Figure 14. Our
economists
believe
that the
March forex
reserves data
indicate
another
surplus
Trade
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA
INDUSTRI
PEMBIAYAAN
DALAM
LIMA
TAHUN
TERAKHIR
Balance for Mar 2014, though perhaps not as large as the Feb number. See their report
Rp miliar
“Inflation eased
while trade back to surplus” (dated 1st Apr 2014) and “FX reserves to
remain stable”
(dated
3rd Apr 2014).
200,000
3,500
3,000
FIGURE 14. INDONESIA’S
TRADE BALANCE
150,000
3
2,500
2,0002
Trade balance (US$ bn)
100,000
1,500
1
1,000
2
50,000
1
500
0
0
0
2003
(1)
(2)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Anjak Piutang
Kartu Kredit
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
0
-1
-2
the biggest deficit in history
(3)
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
-3
September 2008 yang
menyatakan
bahwa
sebanyak
pendanaan
perusahaanOil and
gas
Non oil
and gas 78% sumber
Balance
(RHS)
perusahaan
pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi
Source:
CEIC
We expect the current account deficit to reach 2.7% of GDP in 2014 until this moment.
The likelihood, however, has somewhat tilted to be lower than anticipated. This is
pembiayaan
terhadap
perbankan.
2 menunjukkan
komposisi
sumber
pendanaan
because
of average
trade
surplus inTampilan
the first two
months of 2014
at around
US$150mn.
perusahaan
pembiayaan.
For
information,
our FY14 CAD forecast of 2.7% of GDP assumes average trade deficit of
US$200mn/month.
At this current level, we see that CAD may come at around 2.3% of GDP in 1Q14, lower
than our FY14 CAD estimate. Trade condition could come under pressure along 2Q14 as
a consequence of the fasting and religious festive periods. Nevertheless, we think trade
trend would not deviate that much especially considering the impact of the ban of
mineral ore export has significantly diminish. Thus, if the trade number at least remains
in the low surplus territory until the end of 2014, the overall current account deficit
could reach between 2.2% - 2.5% of GDP for FY 2014.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 11 of 60
Page 11 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
FIGURE 15. INDONESIA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
10,000
5.0%
8,000
4.0%
6,000
3.0%
4,000
2.0%
2,000
1.0%
0.0%
(2,000)
-1.0%
(4,000)
-2.0%
-3.0%
(6,000)
Jun-13
Dec-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
-5.0%
Dec-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
(10,000)
-4.0%
Current account to GDP (%, RHS)
Jun-06
(8,000)
Current account (US$mn, LHS)
Source: CEIC
More risks on the economic growth outlook
However the economic growth outlook is much murkier. Last month Bank Indonesia
cut its 2014 economic growth forecasts (from the 5.8 to 6.2% range to 5.5 to 5.9%) ,
citing weaker than expected consumer spending. This is hard to digest, frankly, because
2014 is an election year and election campaigns tend to result in higher consumer
spending.
Yet when we talk to listed retailers, indication of Q1 2014 same store growth and overall
retail revenue growth are positive. Mitra Adi Perkasa (MAPI), Matahari Putra Prima
(MPPA), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS), Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA) and Aces
Hardware (ACES) all indicate that their Q1 2014 revenue growth are in line or even
somewhat better than budgeted.
MPPA's director Mr Richard Setiadi said to Jakarta Post (“MPPA looks outside Java for
expansion”, 11 Apr 2014) that MPPA is upbeat it will deliver a stronger growth this year,
adding that the firm saw an 8% increase in its same store growth in Q1 2014. ACES
disclosed that its same store growth in Jan and Feb 2014 reached 6.2%, better than the
management 5% SSG target for Full Year 2014. In similar vein RALS same store growth
of 17.1%, 1% and 4.8% yoy in Jan, Feb and Mar this year clearly indicate healthy
consumer spending. (Its Jan 2014 growth number was exceptionally good due to a
base-year effect as its Jan 2013 sales was badly hit by heavy flooding at the time.) RALS
management assert that its Q1 2014 performance is on track to deliver its same store
growth target of 7.3% this year. MAPI and ERAA have not released their 1Q14 sales data
as yet, but they indicate that revenue growth in that quarter has been satisfactory.
So it appears that the evidence on consumer spending remain mixed for now. It does
imply that the Q1 2014 earnings results and real GDP growth data, to be released by
end of Apr and early May 2014 respectively, constitute a risk to stock market valuation
due to these mixed signals, but on the whole we veer towards the positive side.
By contrast we believe we are in firmer ground for projecting a bullish growth in
investment spending. Looking at the main differences in the economic projection
between our Bull and Base scenarios, the biggest difference indeed lies in this “Gross
Fixed Capital Formation” (GFCF) element of the real GDP growth (8% in the Bull Case vs
3.5% in the Base Case, as compared to the 4.7% yoy growth delivered in 2013). See
Figure 16. The Bull Case also takes a more positive outlook on consumer spending than
the Base case (5.5% vs 5.1%, as compared to the 5.3% yoy growth delivered in 2013)
but here the gap is much less.
Page 12 of 60
Page 12 of 60
Strategy | 14
14 April
April 2014
2014
FIGURE 16. 2014 MARKET OUTLOOK IN MANDIRI SEKURITAS’ VIEW
FIGURE 16. 2014 MARKET OUTLOOK IN MANDIRI SEKURITAS’ VIEW
Bull Case
Base Case
Bear Case
Bull2014F
Case
Base2014F
Case
Bear2014F
Case
2014F
2014F
2014F
5,550
4,550
4,000
th
Plaza
- 38, Jakarta 12190,
JCI Target / of
Historical
at
YearMandiri
End 28 Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 36
4,317
4,274Indonesia
5,550
4,550
4,000
Probability
occurrence
40%
40%
20%
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General:
+62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527 Industri
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
Probability
of
occurrence
40%
20%
Indonesia’s next President
Candidate
A
Candidate A40%
or B
Candidate
C
Indonesia’s
next
President
Candidate
A
Candidate
A
or
B
Candidate
C
BI Rate at Year End (%)
5.75
7.5
7.0
7.75
8.5
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami
masa pertumbuhan
pesat7.75
sepanjang lima tahun
BI Rate
at Growth
Year End(%)
(%)
5.75
7.5
7.0
8.5
Real
GDP
6.23
5.8
6.0
5.6
5.3
aset bertumbuh
dengan5.5
sehingga pada
Real GDP
Growth (%) Expenditures Growth (%) terakhir, dimana jumlah
6.23
5.8
6.0tingkat CAGR 21.93%,
5.6
5.3
Private
Consumption
5.28
5.3
5.1
4.9
Private Consumption
Expenditures
Growth (%) kuartal III 2008 1.25
5.28
5.3
5.5
5.1
4.9
Government
Expenditure
Growth (%)
4.9
3.0
4.0
4.4
mencapai Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
Government
Expenditure
Growth
(%) (%)
1.25
4.9
3.0
4.0
4.4
Gross
Fixed Capital
Formation
Growth
9.81
4.7
8.0
3.5
4.4
pembiayaan anjak9.81
piutang tidak
mengalami pertumbuhan
yang3.5 berarti, sedangkan
Gross
Fixed
Capital
Formation
Growth
(%)
4.7
8.0
4.4
Exports Growth (%)
2.01
5.3
4.0
3.0
5.4
Exports Growth
2.01
5.3
4.0
3.0
5.4
pembiayaan konsumen,
sewa 1.2
guna usaha dan 3.0
kartu kredit mengalami
pertumbuhan
Imports
Growth (%)
(%)
6.65
1.0
3.4
Imports
(%)at Year End (Rp/USD)
6.65 masing-masing
1.2
3.0 dan 12.25%
1.0
3.4
USD
IDRGrowth
Exch Rate
9,793
12,171
11,400
13,500
dengan tingkat CAGR
24.41%, 10,500
25.77%
USD
IDR Exch
at Year
End (Rp/USD)
9,793
12,171
10,500
11,400
13,500
Source:
CEIC,Rate
Mandiri
Sekuritas
2012
2013
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri Sekuritas A subsidiary of2012
PT Bank Mandiri 2013
(Persero) Tbk
JCI Target / Historical at Year End
4,317
4,274
Source: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas
The
main industri
reason for
the Base dalam
Case' bearishness
for investment
in
Kinerja
pembiayaan
lima tahun terakhir
hingga spending
Septemberoutlook
2008 dapat
The
main
reason
for thecreated
Base Case'
bearishness
for investment
spending
outlook
in
2014
is
the
uncertainty
by
upcoming
elections.
This
can
be
clearly
seen
from
2014
is
the
uncertainty
created
by
upcoming
elections.
This
can
be
clearly
seen
from
the fact that investment spending had skidded down from a 9.8% yoy growth in 2012
thejust
fact4.7%
thatgrowth
investment
spending had skidded down from a 9.8% yoy growth in 2012
to
in 2013.
1. KINERJA
toTAMPILAN
just 4.7% growth
in 2013.INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR
However The Bottom Line believes that there is nothing surprising in this
Rp miliar
However
The
Bottomthe
Line
is previous
nothing election
surprising
this
development
– exactly
samebelieves
patternsthat
werethere
seen in
yearsin1999,
development
–
exactly
the
same
patterns
were
seen
in
previous
election
years
1999,
200,000
3,500 but
2004 and 2009.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation were always weak, or started strong
2004
2009. Gross
Fixed Capital
Formation
were leading
always weak,
started strong
but
then and
weakened
precipitously
during
the quarters
to theorelection
quarter(s).
3,000
then
weakened
precipitously
during
the
quarters
leading
to
the
election
quarter(s).
Once Indonesia
elected a market-friendly leader, however, it recovered strongly. See
150,000
2,500 See
Once
elected
FiguresIndonesia
17, 18 and
19. a market-friendly leader, however, it recovered strongly.
Figures 17, 18 and 19.
2,000
1,000
500
President election, Jul09
2005
2006
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
0
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Dec-10
Dec-10
Sep-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Dec-09
Sep-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Mar-09
Source: CEIC
Dec-08
Dec-08
Kartu Kredit
Sep-08
Sep-08
1,500
Legislative election, Apr09
Legislative
election,election,
Apr09 Jul09
President
Jun-08
Jun-08
Dec-00
Dec-00
16
14
50,000
14
12
12
10
10
0
8
8
2003
62004
6
Total Asset 4
4
2
Anjak Piutang 2
0
0
Sep-00
Sep-00
Jun-00
Jun-00
Mar-00
Mar-00
Dec-99
Dec-99
Salah satu karakteristik dari
industri
Source:
CEIC pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
FIGURE
19. GFCF
AROUND
ELECTION YEAR
2004
September
2008
yang menyatakan
bahwa
sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanFIGURE 19. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2004
perusahaan
20
20
President
election,
& Sep04
sebesar
11%
dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar
12.1%.
Data Jul04
ini mempertegas
18
President election, Jul04 & Sep04
18
adanya
keterikatan/ketergantungan yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan
16
16
pembiayaan
terhadap perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
14
Legislative election
14
12
perusahaan
pembiayaan.
Legislative
election
-Apr04
Please
disclosure at
at the
the back
back of
of this
this report
report
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Please
see
important
disclosure
Dec-05
Dec-05
Sep-05
Sep-05
Jun-05
Jun-05
Mar-05
Mar-05
Dec-04
Dec-04
Sep-04
Sep-04
Jun-04
Jun-04
Mar-04
Mar-04
Dec-03
Dec-03
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Sep-03
Sep-03
-Apr04
Jun-03
Jun-03
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
Mar-03
Mar-03
Sep-99
Sep-99
Jun-99
Jun-99
Mar-99
Mar-99
Dec-98
Dec-98
Sep-98
Sep-98
Source: CEIC
Source: CEIC
Jun-98
Jun-98
Legislative election, Jun99
Legislative election, Jun99
Mar-98
Mar-98
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
-50
-50
FIGURE 18. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2009
FIGURE
18. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 2009
16
100,000
Mar-08
Mar-08
FIGURE 17. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 1999
FIGURE
17. GFCF AROUND ELECTION YEAR 1999
30
Page 13
Page
13 of
of 60
60
Page 13 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Does this mean that investment spending will have to wait until the Presidential
elections in July (or even September if it goes on to a second round) before recovering ?
We believe it is already starting to recover now, as the announcement that Jokowi will
run for the presidency in itself has eliminated much of the political uncertainty. In case
the readers would remonstrate that the recent stock market sharp dip indicates that the
capital markets are not so sure on this point, we would reiterate again our view that this
dip is the result of unrealistic expectation to start with, and that it will soon prove to be
a storm in a tea cup.
FIGURE 20. LOAN GROWTH : NATIONAL LOAN GROWTH RATE VS INVESTMENT LOAN GROWTH RATE (MONTHLY)
National (all banking) loan growth
National investment loan growth
(% y-y)
30
Industry loans growth
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
15
Dec-11
20
Jun-11
25
Dec-10
(% y-y)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Investments growth
Source: Bank Indonesia
We can also glean a more solid evidence for this from Bank Indonesia's national
statistics for loan growth. Total loan growth has started to decline since late 2011 and
recent numbers suggest that this trend will continue. Investment loan growth
mimicked this national total loan performance until mid 2013 (supporting the sharp
slow down in Gross Fixed Capital Formation during 2013), but since then has shown a
strong recovery – including the Jan 2014 data. The Feb data should be released some
weeks from this report's publication but we are confident it will confirm this trend. See
Figure 20.
Page 14 of 60
Page 14 of 60
Strategy
14 April
April 2014
2014
Strategy || 14
Stock Picks : Searching for Value
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri
Sekuritas
A subsidiary
of PT
Bankto
Mandiri
Tbk
After
rising
15.1%
YTD
the(Persero)
legislative
election day, the JCI fell 3.1% in one day
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, due
Jl. Jend. to
Gatot
Subroto Kav. 36 - 38, politics.
Jakarta 12190,Under
Indonesia such
disappointing
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
highly volatile market conditions, we
introduce an investment methodology that focuses on long-term values. We
Industri
telahSGRO
mengalami
pertumbuhan
pesat sepanjang lima tahun
are
addingpembiayaan
PWON, CTRS,
to our masa
Top Buy
Picks.
Back to basics
Inpembiayaan
the midst of anjak
all these
volatilities,
recommend
investors to focus
the long-term
piutang
tidakwemengalami
pertumbuhan
yang on
berarti,
sedangkan
fundamentals
of
our
investments.
The
theory
is
straight
forward
–
we
are
seeking
those
pembiayaan konsumen, sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
companies whose long term outlook are strong (and hence giving us a solid basis for
expecting a long term appreciation in their value), but for some short-term reasons are
facing pressures on their stock price today. Provided we can satisfy ourselves that those
Kinerja are
industri
pembiayaan
dalamthen
limawetahun
hingga
September
2008 will
dapat
concerns
short-term
in nature,
knowterakhir
that their
strong
fundamentals
dilihat
pada Tampilan
I. in the long term.
bring
outsized
appreciation
How do we identify strong long-term fundamentals ?
The Discounted Cash Flows methodology remains the most robust in our opinion, but
this methodRp
is miliar
difficult to standardize across sectors, and more difficult still across stockbrokers to arrive
at a consensus number.
200,000
3,500
Hence we decide to use the third-year forecast of price-to-earnings ratio to help3,000
identify
these long term
fundamentals.
Our
reasons
:
150,000
2,500
1.
PER prove to be the most effective valuation tools in Indonesia. We made a 2,000
study of
the effectiveness
of several popular valuation tools (PER, PEG, Price to Book, Stock
100,000
1,500
Beta, Stock Price Variance, Dividend Yield) to identify winners and losers (in
a one1,000 is
year time50,000
frame) in the Indonesian stock market. To our surprise the conclusion
that PER is the only tool that works well to identify both potential winners
500 and
losers; Price to Book works well to identify potential losers, but not potential
0 report
winners. The0study covers the five-year period 2007-11. See The Bottom Line
th
dated 25 March 2013:
to switch to
the defensive.
2003 Time 2004
2005
2006
2007
Oct-08
TotalinAsset
Sewaview
Guna about
Usaha the
Year 3 forecasts
many cases arePembiayaan
reflectionKonsumen
of the analysts’
company’s long
term
outlook.
Specific
industry
or
company
events
projected
in
Anjak Piutang
Kartu Kredit
Year 3 generally are far fewer than Year 1 or Year 2 forecasts – hence these long
term consideration take a weightier share in forming those Year 3 forecasts.
Naturally if there are Year 5 (or better still, Year 10) forecasts those might work even
better, but in practical terms very few analysts make projection beyond Year 3 at
Salah
karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
the satu
moment.
So we take the Year 3 EPS forecasts of Mansek analysts to form the basis of this search
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanfor value.
Next
we 11%
need dan
a Price-to-Earnings
reflect12.1%.
a company’s
term
sebesar
pinjaman-pinjamanRatio
lainnyathat
sebesar
Data ini long
mempertegas
fundamentals. We use a 5-year average of the company’s 12-month rolling forward PER.
Our reasons:
1. perusahaan
12-monthpembiayaan.
rolling forward PER represents an “idealized” price-to-earnings ratio for
investors. In practical terms investors just ask for this year’s and next year’s PER
because they are readily available whereas a 12-month rolling forward PER takes a
bit more effort to calculate – however the latter encapsulates the valuation data
that most investors prefer.
2.
2.
The 5-year average is chosen not because 5 years happen to be a nice whole
number, but because they represent a full boom-and-bust cycle. Looking at the
Jakarta Composite Index over the last decade or so, it so happens that the Dec 2003
– Dec 2008 period represents one full cycle of boom and bust index movement, as
does the Dec 2008 – Dec 2013 period. See Figure 21. We choose the Dec 2008 – Dec
2013 period as, being more recent, we hope it has more relevance to today’s
valuation than the earlier boom and bust cycle. (Readers would have to forgive the
fact that in an emerging stock market, the uptrend tends to last far longer than the
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 15 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
down trend. Hence while what we call one full cycle of boom and bust does not
imply an equal period of uptrend and down trend.)
FIGURE 21. RECENT 5-YEAR BOOM AND BUST CYCLE IN INDONESIAN EQUITIES
6,000
one boom & bust cycle
one boom & bust cycle
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Dec-13
Jun-13
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Jun-10
Dec-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Jun-08
Dec-08
Dec-07
Jun-07
Dec-06
Jun-06
Dec-05
Jun-05
Dec-04
Jun-04
Dec-03
0
Source: Bloomberg
3.
A 5-year average 12-month rolling forward PER also has a built-in freedom from
bias of the current market trend. In a bull market, PER multiples generally expand.
In a bear market by contrast, PER multiples generally contract. By using a statistic
that average out these market sentiments, we aim to discover the firm’s “normal”
range of valuation and thus free our conclusions from the need to assume an
uptrending- or a downtrending-market.
We then use these two statistics to derive our projected Year 3 stock price :
Year 3 EPS forecast x 5-year Average PER = Year 3 projected Stock Price
To bring this future value to its present value, we discount this Year 3 projected Stock
Price using some measure of appropriate discount rate. The statistic we choose to do
this is the benchmark 3-year government bond yields. It is fair to state, we believe, that
this represents the market’s view of a risk-free interest rate over a 3-year time period.
Using this discount rate, we derive the present value of that company’s “long term”
valuation.
We then compare this PV of its long term value to its current stock price. We are most
interested in cases where the long term value is “clearly” undervalued – we’d suggest
30% undervaluation or more.
We do not add any risk premium to this risk-free interest rate, as would be commonly
done in a Discounted Cash Flows analysis, because it will open a long-winded and
unproductive debate about what the appropriate equity risk premium should be in our
opinion. Our method of reflecting the added equity risks is by demanding a certain
minimum under-valuation (30% in this case) which to us is a more practical yardstick
than debating equity risk premium.
Figure 22 presents this long-term vs current value screen of all the companies in
Mansek Universe today.
Page 16 of 60
Page 16 of 60
FIGURE 22. NEW METHODOLOGY TO IDENTIFY LONG TERM VALUES (BASED ON CLOSING PRICES AT 14 APR 2014)
Upside /
Current
PV of F'cast
F'cast Stock
Price in Y3
Company'sINDUSTRI
Name
TINJAUAN
Mandiri Sekuritas A
subsidiary of PT Bank
Mandiri
(Persero)
Tbk
(Downside)
Stock
Price
Stk
Price in Y3
JCI Code
LPCK
MYOR
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto
Kav. 36 - 38, Jakarta
Lippo Cikarang
-57.0%
7,65012190, Indonesia3,291
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
Mayora Indah
ADHI
Adhi Karya
KLBF
Kalbe Farma
WIKA
Wijaya Karya
LPPF
Matahari Department Store
CPIN
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia
MAIN
Malindo Feedmill
RALS
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa
TELE
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia
ICBP
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur
JPFA
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
JSMR
Jasa Marga
PTPP
Pembangunan Perumahan
ACES
Ace Hardware Indonesia
SMGR
Semen Indonesia
TLKM
Telekomunikasi Indonesia
UNTR
United Tractors
-51.3%
29,625
14,424
5-year
Avg PER
Current
PER
4,073
3.5
6.4
17,850
15.4
30.2
-34.6%
2,975mengalami1,946
2,409 pesat sepanjang
6.9
12.7 tahun
Industri pembiayaan
telah
masa pertumbuhan
lima
-33.9%
1,520
1,004
1,243
18.7
30.1
terakhir, dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga
pada
-33.8%
2,265
1,500
1,857
11.9
19.7
kuartal III-32.5%
2008 mencapai
Rp153.6triliun.
Dalam 12,438
hal pembiayaan
yang dikucurkan,
14,900
10,051
14.2
25.1
pembiayaan
anjak
piutang
tidak
mengalami
pertumbuhan
yang
berarti,
sedangkan
-32.4%
4,215
2,850
3,527
13.6
21.9
pembiayaan
konsumen,3,370
sewa guna usaha
kredit mengalami
pertumbuhan
-31.0%
2,326 dan kartu
2,879
8.1
14.3
-24.5%CAGR masing-masing
1,310
989
18.8
dengan tingkat
24.41%,
25.77% 1,223
dan 12.25% 16.1
-23.5%
805
-23.4%
industri
10,000
pembiayaan
Kinerja
-22.8%
1,430
616
dalam
7,658tahun
lima
1,104
763
9,477hingga
terakhir
1,366
9.6
19.4
September
10.8
11.6
24.6 dapat
2008
15.6
-21.1%
6,025
4,755
5,885
18.4
25.3
-20.4%
1,775
1,413
1,749
11.9
15.8
-18.9%
Rp miliar
15,925
12,922
15,991
13.3
15.4
200,000
-18.7%
2,340
1,903
2,355
13.3
21,200
17,243
21,338
13.5
3,500
15.6
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA785
INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN
DALAM
LIMA TAHUN
TERAKHIR
-20.1%
627
776
17.3
24.4
-18.7%
14.7
UNVR
Unilever Indonesia
-17.3%
30,750
25,416
31,453
30.1
36.8
3,000
INTP
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa
150,000
-16.0%
22,950
19,289
23,870
14.1
PGAS
Perusahaan Gas Negara
-15.7%
5,325
4,491
5,557
12.0
15.0
2,500
ASII
Astra International
7,700
6,510
8,057
12.4
2,000
14.4
LSIP
PP London Sumatra Indonesia
-15.4%
100,000
-11.0%
2,250
2,003
2,479
12.2
1,500
12.4
WTON
Wijaya Karya Beton
-9.0%
765
696
861
17.0
TBIG
Tower Bersama Infrastructure
-8.5%
6,050
5,535
6,850
18.4
17.3
1,000
GGRM
Gudang Garam
-7.0%
49,600
46,136
57,094
17.3
BBCA
Bank Central Asia
-6.0% 0
11,250
10,575
13,086
14.9
SMCB
Holcim Indonesia
-5.5%
BBRI
Bank Rakyat Indonesia
-3.5%
AALI
Astra Agro Lestari
-3.1%
BBNI
Bank Negara Indonesia
-1.8%
ASRI
Alam Sutera Realty
-1.0%
INDF
Indofood Sukses Makmur
BJTM
BPD Jawa Timur
JRPT
Jaya Real Property
MAPI
Mitra Adiperkasa
EXCL
XL Axiata
AISA
SMRA
Summarecon Agung
ITMG
Indo Tambangraya Megah
WIIM
Wismilak Inti Makmur
MDLN
Modernland Realty
50,000
20032,800 2004
9,775
Total Asset
27,750
Anjak Piutang
4,950
Sumber: Bank
Indonesia
-1.0%
3.3%
2,646
2005
9,435
2006 3,2752007
11,676
Pembiayaan Konsumen
15.7
Oct-08
13.4
18.8
500
18.8
0 16.7
16.1
8.6
10.0
14.9
14.5
9.4
Sewa Guna Usaha
26,877
33,261
Kartu Kredit
4,860
6,014
9.0
555
549
680
9.0
7.0
7,225
7,153
8,851
13.8
14.5
610
6.7
477
satu 3.3%
karakteristik 850
dari
493
878
pembiayaan
1,086 hubungannya
12.2
adalah
6.9
14.7
cukup
Salah
industri
yang
erat
4.1%
5,950
6,195
7,667
17.2
20.5
5.6%
4,920
5,196
6,430
22.7
40.4
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan5.6%
2,065
2,182
2,700
9.6
14.5
perusahaan9.0%
pembiayaan 1,070
bersumber dari
dana perbankan,
pendanaan12.8
obligasi
1,166
1,443disusul oleh
14.7
sebesar 11%
dan
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya
sebesar
12.1%.
Data
ini
mempertegas
9.0%
25,325
27,617
34,176
12.5
10.3
yang
11.3%
705
785 cukup besar
971 atas perusahaan-perusahaan
11.5
10.2
12.0%
453
507 2 menunjukkan
628 komposisi
14.9
3.8
pembiayaan
terhadap perbankan.
Tampilan
sumber pendanaan
12.6%
3,810
4,288
5,307
18.6
28.7
ISAT
Indosat
BSDE
Bumi Serpong Damai
17.2%
1,540
1,806
2,234
13.3
11.9
WSKT
Waskita Karya
17.4%
715
839
1,039
15.7
15.9
BTPN
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional
17.7%
4,100
4,826
5,972
9.2
9.2
CTRS
Ciputra Surya
18.2%
2,285
2,702
3,344
9.6
7.9
IMAS
Indomobil Sukses Internasional
25.2%
4,910
6,147
7,607
14.9
13.6
TAXI
Express Transindo
29.7%
1,350
1,751
2,166
19.0
17.4
APLN
Agung Podomoro Land
30.8%
269
352
436
8.4
5.8
INCO
Vale Indonesia
36.3%
3,480
4,745
5,872
28.2
32.8
BJBR
BPD Jawa Barat Dan Banten
36.7%
1,145
1,565
1,937
9.0
7.1
HEXA
Hexindo Adiperkasa
39.1%
3,930
5,466
6,764
9.1
11.0
RANC
Supra Boga Lestari
40.0%
645
903
1,117
29.8
19.5
ANTM
Aneka Tambang
43.3%
1,125
1,612
1,994
23.8
48.5
Please
disclosure at
at the
the back
back of
of this
this report
report
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Please
see
important
disclosure
Page 17
Page
17 of
of 60
60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
JCI Code
Company's Name
Upside /
(Downside)
Current
Stock Price
PV of F'cast
Stk Price in Y3
F'cast Stock
Price in Y3
5-year
Avg PER
Current
PER
ERAA
Erajaya Swasembada
43.9%
1,335
1,921
2,377
14.9
9.5
BWPT
BW Plantation
45.2%
1,315
1,909
2,363
16.3
12.7
PTBA
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam
52.0%
9,750
14,819
18,339
14.9
9.6
BBTN
55.2%
1,250
1,940
2,401
10.1
7.1
ADRO
Adaro Energy
59.2%
1,010
1,607
1,989
15.4
11.3
BDMN
Bank Danamon Indonesia
59.5%
4,550
7,257
8,980
13.1
9.4
CTRA
Ciputra Development
59.8%
1,050
1,678
2,076
17.5
12.3
SGRO
Sampoerna Agro
68.1%
1,995
3,353
4,149
15.5
10.8
PNBN
Bank Pan Indonesia
69.0%
810
1,369
1,694
11.4
7.4
HRUM
Harum Energy
91.9%
2,160
4,146
5,130
16.6
6.5
PWON
Pakuwon Jati
130.0%
345
794
982
17.1
9.9
DYAN
Dyandra Media International
130.4%
236
544
673
14.8
9.8
MEDC
Medco Energi Internasional
185.3%
2,555
7,288
9,019
23.0
12.2
BKSL
Sentul City
370.7%
185
871
1,078
42.1
10.7
Changes to Mansek Top Buy Picks
While this value investing methodology offers several interesting ideas, we need to
always temper it with our own common-sense observation.
The value accretion predicted by this model comes from two sources : (a) superior
earnings growth in the long run, and (b) expansion in its valuation multiple. While we
may have a high degree of confidence in our analysts’ earnings outlook, this model
simply assumes that the valuation multiple expansion will materialize.
There can be company-specific reasons why this valuation expansion may not occur.
For example, Sentul City (BKSL) has suffered sustained de-rating due to issues that may
not disappear simply because its earnings outlook has improved. Likewise with the coal
sector (our model picks HRUM, ADRO and PTBA) – its long term PER multiple may
reflect robust demand and supply dynamics in the past that can no longer be expected
to recur now or in the foreseeable future. Lastly small liquidity is also a barrier to our
picking Hexindo Adi Perkasa (HEXA) or Bank Pan Indonesia (PNBN).
FIGURE 23. MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO
Ticker
Company's Name
Stock Price
Starting
14-Apr-14 Stock Price
Changes
PER 2014F
(x)
2014 EPS
Growth
Fcast
Target
Price
25,000
AALI
Astra Agro Lestari (dropped)
27,750
21,200
30.9%
15.4
57.9%
BWPT
BW Plantations
1,315
1,180
11.4%
14.7
64.0%
1,750
LSIP
London Sumatra Plantations (dropped)
2,250
1,710
31.6%
13.4
49.4%
2,200
SMGR
Semen Indonesia (dropped)
15,925
17,500
-9.0%
16.0
9.9%
16,600
AISA
2,065
2,000
3.3%
15.9
37.1%
2,700
BBTN
1,250
1,295
-3.5%
7.4
12.0%
1,500
BJBR
BPD Jawa Barat dan Banten
1,145
1,040
10.1%
7.4
9.4%
1,300
BSDE
Bumi Serpong Damai
1,540
1,710
-9.9%
12.5
-17.5%
2,000
LPCK
Lippo Cikarang
7,650
7,800
-1.9%
6.6
36.5%
9,850
PWON
Pakuwon Jati (addition)
345
11.1
32.0%
430
SGRO
Sampoerna Agro (addition)
1,995
12.0
164.3%
3,000
CTRS
Ciputra Surya (addition)
2,285
8.6
27.8%
4,000
MANSEK TOP BUY PORTFOLIO
1,049.7
1,000.0
5.0%
Jakarta Composite Index
4,864.9
4,254.8
14.3%
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates
Page 18 of 60
Page 18 of 60
From this study we pick Pakuwon Jati (PWON), Sampoerna Agro (SGRO) and Ciputra
Surya
(CTRS).
In addition
to their
attractive
value now, in each case there are specific
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri
Sekuritas
A subsidiary
of PT Bank Mandiri
(Persero)
Tbk
significant
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, thematic
Jl. Jend. Gatot reasons
Subroto Kav.for
36 -expecting
38, Jakarta 12190,
Indonesia
Industri
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
5711
(Debt
Research),
(Debt Sales)
See
the
analyses
in +62
pp.2119527–/ 5701
24.
value appreciation over the next 12 months.
Industri
telahAgro
mengalami
masa London
pertumbuhan
pesat
sepanjang(LSIP)
lima and
tahun
We
are alsopembiayaan
dropping Astra
Lestari (AALI),
Sumatera
Plantations
Semen
Indonesia
We continue
to like
the tingkat
prospects
for crude
palm
oil price
terakhir,
dimana(SMGR).
jumlah aset
bertumbuh
dengan
CAGR
21.93%,
sehingga
pada
rally
–
however
we
assess
SGRO’s
chances
for
delivering
stronger
value
appreciation
to
be better as its valuation multiple still lags its long-term average by a bigger gap than is
the case with either LSIP or AALI, Our model highlights the fact that SMGR’s current
pembiayaan
konsumen,
sewa its
guna
kartu
kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
valuation
multiple
has exceeded
longusaha
term dan
average
significantly.
By contrast we are keeping Lippo Cikarang (LPCK) in Mansek Top Buy Picks despite our
model highlighting a severe over-valuation. The reason is that our 5-year average 12Kinerja
industri
pembiayaan
dalam lima
tahun
hingga
September
month
rolling
forward
PER is calculated
based
onterakhir
actual EPS
figures
– but for2008
mostdapat
of
dilihat
pada
Tampilan
2010,
2011
and
2012 theI. Street expected much lower earnings than what the company
eventually delivered. Hence when calculated using the actual historical PER, its PER
multiples
appeared
very INDUSTRI
low duringPEMBIAYAAN
these years. In
addition,
is aTERAKHIR
growing
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA
DALAM
LIMAthere
TAHUN
divergence between consensus earnings expectation (rising) and LPCK’s stock price
Rpp.miliar
(falling) – see
50. This highlights LPCK’s deep value even more.
200,000
3,500
3,000
Pakuwon Jati: Solid development income backed by strong recurring income
150,000
(PWON; Buy;
TP: Rp430)
2,500
2,000
by Rizky Hidayat
100,000
•
1,500
Solid and sustainable development income. PWON has shown strong marketing
1,000 of
sales growths
50,000of over 60% in the past 2 years where we expect CAGR 2013-2016F
19.3%. We expect huge chunk of marketing sales coming from the Kota Kasablanka
500
phase 2 project, which should manifest its earnings starting in FY15F. For FY14F, we
0
0
expect flat marketing
sales of Rp3.08tn. Despite primarily selling high rise products,
we believe strong2003
brand name
new project
2004 and2005
2006 launches
2007 should
Oct-08keep PWON’s
marketing sales
on
the
defensive
side
this
year.
PWON’s
current
projects
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa
Gunashould
Usaha still
have over 30 years of life backed by its landed projects in Surabaya.
Anjak Piutang
•
Kartu Kredit
High and growing recurring income. PWON has the second largest recurring
income
Sumber:
Bankportion
Indonesiaat 47% of total revenue after LPKR. The company is very active in
increasing their recurring income at 20% CAGR13-16F. New recurring income
projects will be introduced in FY15F with the opening of Tunjungan Plaza phase 6,
Salah
satu karakteristik dari industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
Four Points by Sheraton Tunjungan, Sheraton Gandaria Hotel, and the Pakuwon
dengan
perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per
Centrelembaga
Office Tower.
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaan• Deleveraging balance sheet. PWON is actively deleveraging their balance sheet
where we expect 9% net gearing in FY14F.
• adanya
Potential
NAV booster. PWON hasyang
been cukup
in talks in
acquiring
in South Jakarta.
keterikatan/ketergantungan
besar
atas land
perusahaan-perusahaan
We expect a potential boost in NAV from the acquisition. Based on our channel
check, land price in the South Jakarta area is around Rp20mn/sqm.
• Premium valuation due to recurring income. PWON is currently trading at 11.17.9x FY14-15F PE. We believe that the premium valuation is justified due to PWON’s
high recurring income.
•
Key risk factors: 1) Marketing sales slowdown; 2) USD appreciation; 3) Hike in labor
and electricity costs; 4) Market and political risks.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 19 of 60
Page 19 of 60
Strategy
| 14 April
2014
Strategy
Strategy|| |14
14April
April2014
2014
Strategy
14
April
2014
FIGURE
24. PWON
MARKETING SALES
FORECAST
FIGURE
FIGURE 24.
24. PWON
PWON MARKETING
MARKETING SALES
SALES FORECAST
FORECAST
Source:
Mandiri Sekuritas
Estimates
Source:
Source: Mandiri
Mandiri Sekuritas
Sekuritas Estimates
Estimates
FIGURE
25. PWON’S
RECURRING INCOME
GROWTH
FIGURE
FIGURE 25.
25. PWON’S
PWON’S RECURRING
RECURRING INCOME
INCOME GROWTH
GROWTH
Source:
Mandiri Sekuritas
Estimates
Source:
Source: Mandiri
Mandiri Sekuritas
Sekuritas Estimates
Estimates
FIGURE
26. PWON’S
BALANCE SHEET
AND LEVERAGE
FIGURE
FIGURE 26.
26. PWON’S
PWON’S BALANCE
BALANCE SHEET
SHEET AND
AND LEVERAGE
LEVERAGE
Source:
Company, Mandiri
Sekuritas Estimates
Source:
Source: Company,
Company, Mandiri
Mandiri Sekuritas
Sekuritas Estimates
Estimates
Page
20 of
60
Page
Page 20
20 of
of 60
60
Please
see important
disclosure at
the back
of this
report
Please
Please see
see important
important disclosure
disclosure at
at the
the back
back of
of this
this report
report
Ciputra Surya: The City of Heroes (CTRS; Buy; TP: Rp4,000)
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri
subsidiary of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
bySekuritas
LilianaABambang
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
5711
(Debt Research),
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt
• Industri
Lower
than replacement
cost.Sales)
Currently,
CTRS is trading below its replacement
cost of Rp2,800, as Surabaya landbanking cost currently Rp1-1.5mn per sqm. We
Industri
pembiayaan
telahcost
mengalami
pertumbuhan
pesat
sepanjang
lima tahun
think our
replacement
number ismasa
conservative
as other
company
landbanking
terakhir,
dimana
jumlah
aset
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkat
CAGR
21.93%,
sehingga
pada
cost is Rp1-2mn per sqm. Thus, we believe that at current valuation CTRS is still
kuartal
III 2008
Rp153.6triliun.
Dalam hal
pembiayaan
yang dikucurkan,
appealing.
CTRSmencapai
is still trading
at c. 70% discount
to NAV
versus average
peers at
50-60%. CTRS
trades at
FY14F
P/E of 9.4x,
and FY15F P/Eyang
of 7.2x.
Its peers
who
pembiayaan
anjakalsopiutang
tidak
mengalami
pertumbuhan
berarti,
sedangkan
also
have
solid
branding,
are
trading
at
11-14x
forward
P/E.
tingkat
masing-masing
24.41%,
danbeen
12.25%
• dengan
Steady
trackCAGR
record.
Since 2010 until
now,25.77%
CTRS has
consistently adding 2-4
new projects p.a. With the addition of new projects, the company marketing sales
grew by
53% CAGR
in FY11-13.
As lima
of FY13,
onlyterakhir
around hingga
43% ofSeptember
its marketing
salesdapat
is
Kinerja
industri
pembiayaan
dalam
tahun
2008
contributed by Surabaya and Greater Surabaya areas. As of end of FY13, the
company has a total of 19 projects, 9 projects in Java and 10 projects in ex-Java.
The new project for FY14F-15F even include areas such as Jayapura.
•
Potential solid growth in FY15F. For FY14F, the company estimate 32% YoY
declineRp
of miliar
marketing sales to Rp2.2tn. The decline is due to slower contribution of
Citraland
Bagya
in FY13)
200,000 City Medan (as the project has been extremely successful 3,500
and as the company holds the launch of its new projects. For FY15F, we estimate
3,000
CTRS to book 32% marketing sales growth.
150,000
2,500
•
NPAT CAGR of 29% for FY13-15F. We estimate CTRS to book NPAT CAGR of 29%
2,000
for FY13-15F,
100,000from Rp413bn to Rp688bn. We view our estimate as conservative,
1,500also
considering its marketing sales grew by 53% CAGR in FY11-13. The company
has sufficient sales advances in its book.
1,000
•
Buy with PT of Rp4,000. We have BUY recommendation for CTRS with
500PT of
Rp4,000, which implies FY14F P/E of 15x and FY15F P/E of 11.5x. We estimate CTRS
0
0
NAV to be Rp8,077. Our PT is based on 50% discount to CTRS’ NAV. Key risks: 1)
2004
2006 cause
2007the company
Oct-08 to trade at
slow introduction 2003
of new projects,
2)2005
Low liquidity
higher discount
to
NAV.
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa Guna Usaha
50,000
Anjak Piutang
Kartu Kredit
Lippo Cikarang: Adding value from JV and residential (LPCK; Buy; TP: Rp9,850)
by Liliana Bambang
satu karakteristik
dariLPCK
industri
pembiayaan
hubungannya
cukup erat
• Salah
JV projects
add value.
recently
did a JVadalah
for 227ha,
with anyang
independent
dengan
lembaga
perbankan.
ini channel
dibuktikan
dariwith
dataagent
statistik
Bank that
Indonesia
third party
(Delta
Silicon 8).HalOur
check
indicates
there isper
September
2008
menyatakan
bahwa sebanyak
78% sumber
pendanaan
perusahaanalready 10
ha yang
of bookings
of industrial
estate with
price per
sqm of Rp2.2mn.
Buyers arepembiayaan
Japanese SME’s
for automotive
support and
electronic
industries. obligasi
Due
perusahaan
bersumber
dari dana perbankan,
disusul
oleh pendanaan
to
buoyant
queries,
management
thinks
that
they
could
potentially
sell
70-75ha
of
industrial land instead of initial expectation of 15ha. Potential JV could be up to
2,000ha. As LPCK provide infrastructure and toll road access, there are incentives
pembiayaan
terhadap
perbankan.
Tampilan
for third party
owners
to do JV with
LPCK.2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
• Converting industrial to residential. The company would introduce new CBD
concept called Orange County for 180ha. The company also has extra landbank in
Era Baru for 80ha which would be used for residential and commercial. Hence,
LPCK’s residential and commercial currently consists of 40% of total landbank
versus previously of 30%. With additions from JV project and conversion to
residential, our NAV number came to be Rp19,700.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 21 of 60
Page 21 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
•
Project pipeline in 1Q14. Project pipeline in 1Q14 rather weak as the company
waited for the opening of its new toll access, which was just opened recently, but
we think it should accelerate in the next few quarters. The company’s recent
project is Trivium apartment with ASP of Rp13-15mn per sqm. Including Delta
Silicon 8, we estimate the company accomplished 15-18% of its FY14F target of
Rp2tn in 1Q14. This is broadly in-line with peers. The company plans to introduce
another 2 tower of serviced apartments in its Cikarang CBD.
•
JV potential remains. Despite recent price appreciation, we think valuation
remains attractive. With our NAV number of Rp19,700, LPCK is trading at 62%
discount to NAV. At current share price, it is trading at FY14F P/E of 6.6x (vs.
residential peers at 12x). Stock also cheap compared to industrial peers at 40%
discount to NAV and 9x FY14F P/E (consensus). There is potential NAV addition, if
LPCK further tied up with other players behind its land-bank.
•
Key risk: 1) Weak concept of Cikarang CBD, 2) Rapid increase of minimum wage.
FIGURE 27. LPCK FORECASTED MARKETING SALES
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Estimates
FIGURE 28. MARKETING SALES BREAKDOWN
Page 22 of 60
Page 22 of 60
Sampoerna Agro: EV/ha is as cheap as cost of new planting
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Mandiri
A subsidiary
of PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
bySekuritas
Hariyanto
Wijaya
Multifinance
/ 5701
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
5711
(Debt Research),
+62 21
(Debt
• Industri
Sizable
recovery
in527FY14F
netSales)
income.
SGRO’s FY13 net income declined 64%
yoy due to: 1) 11.1% yoy decrease in FY13 nucleus FFB production on lagging
Industri
mengalami
pertumbuhan
pesat
sepanjang
tahun
impactpembiayaan
of droughttelah
in 2012
in Southmasa
Sumatra.
2) 30% of
its FY13
total lima
nucleus
terakhir,
dimana
jumlah
aset
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkat
CAGR
21.93%,
sehingga
pada
mature (15.5k ha total FY12 and FY13 newly mature nucleus) still contributed loss
kuartal
III consolidated
2008 mencapai
Rp153.6triliun.
DalamFY14
hal net
pembiayaan
yang dikucurkan,
to FY13
profit.
We think SGRO’s
income should
recover
sizeably due
to: piutang
1) recovery
FY14F production
volume,
2) 15.5k
ha sedangkan
mature
pembiayaan
anjak
tidakin mengalami
pertumbuhan
yang
berarti,
nucleus
should
start
generating
profit
in
FY14F.
tingkat CAGR
25.77%
dan 12.25%
• dengan
Production
volumemasing-masing
should grow24.41%,
strongly
in FY14F.
We estimate SGRO’s FFB
production to grow strongly in FY14F as it recovers from lagging impact of 2012
drought.
According
to BMKG’s
map and
channel
check
to our source
in
Kinerja
industri
pembiayaan
dalamrainfall
lima tahun
terakhir
hingga
September
2008 dapat
South Sumatra, there was no drought in 2013 and in the beginning 2014 in South
Sumatra. Therefore, we think SGRO’s FY14 CPO production should recover sizably.
• TAMPILAN
15.5k ha1.mature
area
(30% of
FY13 total DALAM
nucleusLIMA
mature)
should
start
KINERJA
INDUSTRI
PEMBIAYAAN
TAHUN
TERAKHIR
generating profit in FY14F. Total newly mature nucleus in FY12 and FY13 is
Rp This
miliar15.5k ha still contributed gross loss to FY13 consolidated net income
15,479ha.
as newly
mature’s low FFB yield made production cost per unit higher than
selling
200,000
3,500
price (see Figure 9 & 10). Increasingly mature FFB yield of 15.5k ha should make it
3,000
start generating profit in FY14F.
150,000
2,500
•
The current EV/ha is still as cheap as new planting cost. SGRO’s US$5,819 EV/ha
2,000
(total planted)
100,000 is at 55% discount to weighted average plantation companies EV/ha
of US$12,991. We think improving earnings should boost SGRO’s share price1,500
•
Risks to our
call: 1) Fluctuation in CPO price. 2) Sizable increase in minimum1,000
wages.
50,000
500
FIGURE 29. SGRO’S FFB PRODUCTION
0
SGRO's FFB production
(in Tons FFB)
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,000,000
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
1,600,000
Anjak Piutang
0
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Kartu Kredit
1,200,000
800,000
400,000 11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas
sebesar
2011
2012
2013
2014Fbesar 2015F
2016F
yang cukup
atas perusahaan-perusahaan
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
Tampilan
2
menunjukkan
komposisi
sumber pendanaan
Plasma FFB production
Nucleus FFB production
perusahaan
pembiayaan.
Source:
Company,
Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 23 of 60
Page 23 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
FIGURE 30. NEWLY MATURE PLANTATION USUALLY GENERATE LOSS BECAUSE IT STILL
GENERATE LOW FFB YIELD
Although contribute to
volume growth, newly
mature usually
contribute net loss due
to high cost per unit
palm product
contribute to volume growth due to higher FFB yield and to net income due to
lower cost per unit palm product
FFB yield/ha/year
20
10
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15
Age of plantation (years old)
All expenses during immature
are capitalized to Balance
sheet
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
All expenses after reclassification to
mature are recorded as expenses in
income statement
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas analysis
FIGURE 31. NEWLY MATURE PLANTATION USUALLY GENERATES LOSS. MATURING TREES SHOULD GENERATE HIGHER PROFIT
MARGIN DUE TO HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY, I.E. HIGHER FFB YIELD.
1st year
3rd year
Peak
mature
mature
production
Cost per Ha (Rp full)
a
17,500,000
17,500,000
17,500,000
FFB yield (ton/ha)
b
8
14
24
Oil Extraction rate
CPO (ton/ha)
c
d=bXc
22.5%
1.8
22.5%
3.2
22.5%
5.4
Kernel Extraction rate
Kernel (ton/ha)
e
f=bXe
3.5%
0.3
3.5%
0.5
3.5%
0.8
Palm oil products (ton/ha)
g=d+f
2.1
3.6
6.2
Cost of palm products/kg (Rp)
h = (a / g)/1000
8,413
4,808
2,804
Selling price assumptions :
CPO (Rp/kg)
Kernel (Rp/kg)
i
j
7,200
3,600
7,200
3,600
7,200
3,600
k =((d X i)+(f X j))/g
6,715
6,715
6,715
l=k-h
(1,698)
(25.3)
1,908
28.4
3,911
58.2
Selling price of Palm Oil products (Rp/kg)
Gross profit/ (gross loss) (Rp/kg)
Gross profit margin / (gross loss margin) ( in %)
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas analysis
Page 24 of 60
Page 24 of 60
The Methodology’s Weaknesses
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
There are several pitfalls in applying this value investing methodology :
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
PER may not be the most appropriate valuation tool. The valuation of a number
of
sectors
does nottelah
primarily
use PER.
Notably
the banking
uses lima
pricetahun
to
Industri
pembiayaan
mengalami
masa
pertumbuhan
pesatsector
sepanjang
book
ratio
more
intensely,
and
the
property
sector
pays
more
attention
to
marketing sales. Rig builders’ valuation is correlated more to their order books than
their earnings. However the number of such sectors is small and we can always
pembiayaan
tidak mengalami
pertumbuhan
individuallyanjak
assesspiutang
such valuation
on a case-by-case
basis. yang berarti, sedangkan
2. Future EPS forecasts may be badly wrong. In other words, the Year 3 EPS
forecasts may not reflect the firm’s long term prospects accurately. This is evidently
true, but the same weakness would exist in any other valuation methodology. We
Kinerja
industri
pembiayaan
limawhere
tahun our
terakhir
hinggalevel
September
dapat
just need
to highlight
thosedalam
forecasts
confidence
is low. In2008
Mandiri
dilihat
pada now
Tampilan
I. the case with Dyandra Media International (DYAN). We have
Universe
this is
yet to revise our forecasts to reflect the fact that the company did not meet our IPO
forecasts for
TAMPILAN
1. 2013.
KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR
1.
3.
Historical
PERs may be distorted by wrong consensus forecasts. Using actual
Rp miliar
historical EPS implies that companies delivering a positive earnings surprise would
3,500
“seem” 200,000
to trade at low historical PERs (because the actual EPS proved
to be
significantly higher than consensus forecasts at the time) and conversely,
3,000
companies
delivering a negative earnings surprise would “seem” to trade at high
150,000
2,500
historical PERs. As a solution, rather than using the actual historical EPS, we can use
2,000
contemporary consensus EPS forecasts. However this will substitute one problem
100,000
with another problem – if the stocks are not well covered (let say, covered1,500
by less
than 5 stock brokers), then the consensus number will be sensitive to an outlier
1,000
forecast.50,000
So both formats would be subject to the risk of wrong consensus forecasts
500 this
– we just have to highlight cases where this occurred. In Mansek Top Buy Picks
is an issue with
LPCK
as
observed
above.
0
0
4.
The methodology
effect
on
long term PER
2003assumes
2004 a “mean
2005 reversion”
2006
2007
Oct-08
multiples. ThisTotal
mayAsset
well not be an appropriate
assumption
to
make,
but Usaha
we would
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa Guna
argue that the best solution is to highlight such cases individually. In Mansek
Piutang
Kartuand
Kredit
Universe this isAnjak
indeed
an issue with BKSL
the coal sector generally.
5. Sumber:
Why Bank
focus
on earnings ? Shouldn’t some measures of efficiency in the use of
Indonesia
capital or labour be better ? This may well be the case, but as we alluded earlier
the simple PER works best amongst various popular valuation tools in picking likely
winners and losers in Indonesia’s stock market. We will however extend our tests to
dengan
ini use
dibuktikan
dari
data ROCE
statistik
Bankand
Indonesia
some lembaga
measuresperbankan.
of efficiencyHal
in the
of capital
(either
or ROA)
labour inper
September
2008
yang
menyatakan
bahwa
sebanyak
78%
sumber
pendanaan
perusahaanthe future to complete our analysis.
While every methodology will contain some inherent weaknesses, we believe this
sebesartransparency,
11% dan pinjaman-pinjaman
sebesar
12.1%. help
Datainvestors
ini mempertegas
system’s
ease of calculationlainnya
and clear
logic should
to pick
adanya
yang
cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan
those
stocks
with the best long term value
potential.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 25 of 60
Page 25 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Sectoral Outlook
Mansek’s valuation methodology is based on bottom-up analysis but some
sectors are well over-represented : banking, plantation, property and just one
agricultural stock. These sectors tend to offer the best long term potential at
the cheapest valuation available today.
Banking sector (Overweight)
by Tjandra Lienandjaja
FIGURE 32. BANK VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
Last Target Mkt. Cap
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
Ticker
Rating
BBCA
Neutral
10,500
11,250
BBNI
Neutral
4,750
BBRI
Buy
BBTN
Buy
BDMN
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%)
NPL
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
277,369
17.6
14.8
3.7
3.1
1.3%
1.5%
10.3%
19.0%
22.5%
22.5%
0.5%
2015
0.5%
4,950
92,311
9.9
8.3
1.7
1.4
2.9%
2.5%
3.0%
19.5%
18.2%
18.7%
2.3%
2.1%
10,600
9,775
241,141
10.5
8.8
2.5
2.0
2.2%
2.4%
7.1%
19.2%
26.0%
25.4%
2.0%
1.9%
1,500
1,250
12,946
7.4
6.6
1.0
0.9
3.0%
3.4%
12.0%
13.0%
14.3%
14.4%
3.4%
3.2%
Neutral
4,300
4,550
43,610
10.0
8.2
1.3
1.1
2.8%
3.0%
7.7%
21.8%
13.3%
14.6%
2.3%
2.2%
BJBR
Buy
1,300
1,145
11,102
7.4
6.5
1.5
1.3
5.6%
6.1%
9.4%
13.4%
21.1%
21.1%
2.8%
2.6%
BJTM
Neutral
500
477
7,045
7.3
6.0
1.2
1.1
8.6%
8.6%
17.0%
21.5%
16.4%
18.4%
4.0%
3.7%
BTPN
Buy
5,275
4,100
23,945
9.9
7.7
1.9
1.6
0.0%
0.0%
13.4%
27.9%
21.7%
22.3%
0.9%
0.8%
PNBN
Buy
780
810
19,511
7.9
6.3
1.0
0.9
4.1%
2.5%
9.0%
25.1%
12.7%
14.3%
2.5%
2.3%
Source: Mandiri Sekuritas
We anticipate banks to see slower quarter in 1Q14 with loan growth slowing (typical
weaker quarter), higher cost of funds, rising problem loans and hence weaker net
interest margin. Total industry loan growth was 21.8% in December 2013 and this has
slowed to 21.4% y-y in January 2014 and further close to 20% in February 2014. On the
type of use, investment loans recorded the highest growth rate and consumer loans the
lowest. Deposit growth is still below the loan growth and hence industry LDR is still on
the rise towards 92%.
2014 will see asset quality deterioration, which usually takes place 6-9 months after the
interest rate increase. This trend is expected to continue in 2Q14 before stabilizing and
on the declining trend again in the second half of 2014. Industry NPL has risen 13 bps to
1.90% in January 2014 from 1.77% in December 2013 and this could reach 2.0-2.1% in
March 2014 and further to 2.4-2.5% in June 2014. However, banks usually write off their
bad debts in the last quarter and hence we expect the NPL level will start declining
again by end of the year.
With slower loan growth, rising NPL and the full impact of deposit rate adjustment we
anticipate some banks with weak deposit franchise to see margin compression of
around 20-30 bps compared to the one recorded in 4Q13, which we believe is
exceptionally high. Bank Danamon, BTPN and BTN are likely to see lower margin while
the large banks are expected to see stable margin. These banks are still adjusting their
lending rates while pressure on deposit rates has abated in 1Q14 relative to the rates in
December 2013. Hence we expect margin for these banks to remain stable.
The slow start of 2014 is expected to turn into a more rigorous outlook in second half of
the year, when the new government is formed. We believe the market to turn more
positive on the new era, which will result in escalating banking activities, which will
continue in 2015 and 2016. We expect average earnings to grow 8% y-y in 2014, down
from 17% y-y in 2013 but with a more positive outlook for 2015, earnings growth
should rise to 21% y-y in 2015. Of the large banks , we maintain our stock pick on Bank
Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ; TP Rp10,600), which is trading at 2.5x P/BV 2014E with 26%
ROE. Of the smaller banks, we suggest Bank BTN (BBTN IJ; TP Rp1,500) and Bank bjb
(BBJB IJ; TP Rp1,300), which are trading at 1.0x and 1.5x P/BV 2014E with the expected
ROE of 14% and 21% for the year.
Page 26 of 60
Page 26 of 60
FIGURE 33. INDUSTRY LOANS BASED ON TYPE OF USE
FIGURE 34. INDUSTRY NPL
TINJAUAN
INDUSTRI
(Rp tr)
(%)
9.0
8.0
60.0
40.0
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
7.0
30.0
50.0
6.0
20.0
40.0
5.0
kuartal III 2008 10.0
4.0
pembiayaan anjak- piutang 30.0
tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
3.0
sewa
(10.0)
20.0guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
2.0
(20.0) masing-masing 24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
dengan tingkat CAGR
10.0
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
1.0
-
-
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-10
NPL (LHS) DALAMAsLIMA
of totalTAHUN
loans (RHS)
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA INDUSTRI PEMBIAYAAN
TERAKHIR
Source: Banks, Mandiri Sekuritas
Source: Banks, Mandiri Sekuritas
Rp miliar
200,000
3,500
Cement sector – Overweight – Beneficiary of infrastructure play
150,000
2,000
FIGURE 35. BUILDING MATERIAL SECTOR VALUATION
TABLE
100,000
Ticker
Rating
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
SMCB
Neutral
2,800
21,459
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
2014
2015
16.7
14.8
50,000 2014
INTP
Buy
22,950
24,000
84,484
15.5
13.9
SMGR
Buy
15,925
16,600
94,459
16.0
14.2
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
1,500
ROE(%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
1,0002015
7.8
2.2
2.0
1.3%
1.8%
35.2%
12.9%
13.9%
500 14.1%
9.6
8.6
3.2
2.7
1.9%
2.1%
8.5%
11.7%
21.9%
21.0%
10.7
9.6
3.9
3.4
2.8%
3.1%
9.9%
12.9%
26.2%
25.7%
2003
P/BV(x)
2015
8.4
0
3,000
2,500
By Liliana Bambang
2,700
Feb-13
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Working Capital Growth (RHS)
Consumption Growth (RHS)
Feb-05
Working Capital
Consumption
Investment Growth (RHS)
Feb-04
Investments
Feb-03
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
(30.0)
Jan-12
3,000
(Rp tr)
(% y-y)
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto Kav. 3660.0
- 38, Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
70.0
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
50.0
Jan-11
3,500
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
Oct-08
Asset
Pembiayaan
Earnings likely toTotal
be in-line.
With improving
IDR Konsumen
and declining Sewa
coal Guna
price,Usaha
we think
that the phase of Anjak
cement
earnings downgrade
for FY14F already ended. In the past
Piutang
Kartu Kredit
three months, cement companies have raised ASP by 1.5-3.0%. For FY14F, cement
companies
areIndonesia
aiming for 5-6% ASP increase to compensate for potential hike in
Sumber: Bank
electricity prices. We currently projects cement demand to grow by 3.7% YoY in FY14F
to 60.2mn MT.
Can
valuation
overshoot?
current
juncture, P/E
for cement
companiesper
dengan
lembaga
perbankan.AtHal
ini dibuktikan
darivaluations
data statistik
Bank Indonesia
areSeptember
already in-line
with
previous
average
of
15-16x.
However,
we
view
that the
2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanvaluation could potentially overshoot on the back of positive news on Indonesia politics
or infrastructure reform policies. We would look to take profit if the valuation is
sebesar 17x
11%fordan
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas
exceeding
Indonesia
cement stocks.
Picks:
INTP. terhadap
At current
juncture,Tampilan
we prefer
INTP on the back
of itssumber
strong pendanaan
balance
pembiayaan
perbankan.
2 menunjukkan
komposisi
sheet. Key risks includes further or prolonged slowdown in the economy and if new
entrants come into the market sooner than expected. We estimate that bulk of the new
entrants would come into the market in FY16F.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 27 of 60
Page 27 of 60
Strategy
Strategy|| |14
14April
April2014
2014
Strategy
14 April 2014
FIGURE 36. CEMENT CONSUMPTION
FIGURE 36. CEMENT CONSUMPTION
Constructions and toll road update
Constructions and toll road update
by Handoko Wijoyo
by Handoko Wijoyo
FIGURE 37. INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
FIGURE 37. INFRASTRUCTURE SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
Ticker
Ticker
ADHI
ADHI
PTPP
PTPP
WIKA
WIKA
WSKT
WSKT
WTON
WTON
JSMR
JSMR
Rating
Rating
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
PER(x)
PER(x)
2014
2015
2014
2015
14.2
10.1
14.2
10.1
16.7
13.9
16.7
13.9
20.7
17.5
20.7
17.5
17.5
13.0
17.5
13.0
23.0
18.3
23.0
18.3
26.0
23.7
26.0
23.7
Last Target
Cap
Price
Price Mkt.
(Rpbn)
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
2,975
2,500
5,359
2,975
2,500
5,359
1,775
2,100
8,595
1,775
2,100
8,595
2,265
2,300
13,829
2,265
2,300
13,829
715
600
6,887
715
600
6,887
765
800
6,667
765
800
6,667
6,025
6,200
40,970
6,025
6,200
40,970
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
2014
2015
2014
2015
5.2
4.1
5.2
4.1
5.9
4.7
5.9
4.7
10.9
9.4
10.9
9.4
9.6
8.0
9.6
8.0
11.0
9.6
11.0
9.6
14.7
13.6
14.7
13.6
P/BV(x)
P/BV(x)
2014
2015
2014
2015
3.0
2.4
3.0
2.4
3.7
3.0
3.7
3.0
4.0
3.4
4.0
3.4
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.2
3.2
2.8
3.2
2.8
4.0
3.6
4.0
3.6
Div. Yield (%)
Div. Yield (%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2.3%
2.1%
2.3%
2.1%
1.7%
1.8%
1.7%
1.8%
1.2%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.7%
1.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.5%
EPS Gr.(%)
EPS Gr.(%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
-7.2% 40.9%
-7.2% 40.9%
22.6% 20.2%
22.6% 20.2%
17.2% 18.2%
17.2% 18.2%
7.1% 34.8%
7.1% 34.8%
19.5% 25.5%
19.5% 25.5%
18.1%
9.7%
18.1%
9.7%
ROE(%)
ROE(%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
22.6% 26.5%
22.6% 26.5%
23.8% 24.0%
23.8% 24.0%
20.9% 21.1%
20.9% 21.1%
15.6% 18.5%
15.6% 18.5%
20.9% 16.4%
20.9% 16.4%
16.1% 15.9%
16.1% 15.9%
Mostly in-line result, PTPP was the strongest performer (36% yoy growth and
Mostly in-line result, PTPP was the strongest performer (36% yoy growth and
115% of our FY2013F estimate). Despite volatile Rupiah exchange rate and increasing
115% of our FY2013F estimate). Despite volatile Rupiah exchange rate and increasing
BI rate during 2H2013, the sector delivered mostly inline result, where ADHI was the
BI
rate during
2H2013,
sector delivered
inlinewhile
result,
where
was the
weakest
(Rp110bn
forexthe
gain/27%
of FY2013mostly
net profit,
PTPP
was ADHI
the strongest
weakest
(Rp110bn
forex
gain/27%
of
FY2013
net
profit,
while
PTPP
was
the
strongest
performer (109% of consensus FY2013F). in addition, margins were relatively stable for
performer (109% of consensus FY2013F). in addition, margins were relatively stable for
all counters, except for PTPP (30 bps yoy decline).
all counters, except for PTPP (30 bps yoy decline).
FIGURE 38. STRONG GROWTH MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE
FIGURE 38. STRONG GROWTH MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE
92%
2012
2012
2014F
2014F
29%
29% 25%
25% 17% 18%
17% 18%
FIGURE 39. NET MARGIN COMPARISON
FIGURE 39. NET MARGIN COMPARISON
92%
2013
2013
2015F
2015F
36%
29% 36%
23% 20%
29%
23% 20%
48% 45%
48% 45%
4.7%4.8%4.6%4.7%
4.7%4.8%4.6%4.7%
41%
41%
35%
35%
7%
7%
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014F
2014F
3.9%
3.9%3.6%3.4%3.5%
3.6%
3.4%3.5%
3.9%
3.8%
3.8%3.6%3.9%
3.6%
2.9%
2.9%
PTPP
PTPP
WSKT
WSKT
2015F
2015F
4.1%
4.1%
2.8%
2.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.2%
3.2%
16%
16%
-7%
-7%
WIKA
WIKA
PTPP
PTPP
Source: Company and Mansek
WSKT
WSKT
ADHI
ADHI
WIKA
WIKA
ADHI
ADHI
Order book wise, we are positive on PTPP (Rp19.6tn) and WIKA (Rp17.7tn) FY2013
Order book wise, we are positive on PTPP (Rp19.6tn) and WIKA (Rp17.7tn) FY2013
new contract achievement. ADHI and WSKT booked Rp11tn and Rp13tn new contract,
new
contractThis
achievement.
ADHI and
WSKT booked
Rp11tn and
respectively.
year, state-owned
contractors
are targeting
15%Rp13tn
to 35% new
new contract,
contract
respectively. This year, state-owned contractors are targeting 15% to 35% new contract
growth. In an election year, we would expect that central and regional government
growth.
In an budget
electiongrowth
year, we
would
regional
government
infrastructure
would
beexpect
lower that
than central
normal.and
Hence,
we would
prefer
infrastructure
budget
growth
would
be
lower
than
normal.
Hence,
we
would
contractors (WIKA and PTPP) that their revenue is mostly secured from carry-overprefer
order
contractors (WIKA and PTPP) that their revenue is mostly secured from carry-over order
book from last year (2013).
book from last year (2013).
Page 28 of 60
Page 28 of 60
Page 28 of 60
Strategy
14 April
April 2014
2014
Strategy || 14
FIGURE 40. INDONESIA CONTRACTOR REVENUE MIX
FIGURE 41. INDONESIA CONTRACTOR ORDER BOOK
OUTLOOK
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
2014F Other revenue
2014F Construction
revenue
273527 Industri
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General:
+62 21 526
3445, Fax : +62 21
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
2014 Revenue (all segment) - Rp bn
New contract target - Rp bn
22,893
mengalami
-
5,413
15,067
11,800
8,984
over - Rpsepanjang
bn
Industri pembiayaan telah
masa pertumbuhanCarry
pesat
lima tahun
22,368
terakhir,800dimana jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
18,700 yang berarti,
15,900 sedangkan
pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan
11,004
pembiayaan konsumen, sewa
guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
24,141
21,933
dengan tingkat CAGR masing-masing
24.41%, 25.77%
15,341dan 12.25%
14,397
10,400
WIKA
WSKT
PTPP
11,800
11,400
11,000
Kinerja ADHI
industri pembiayaanWIKA
dalam lima tahun
terakhir WSKT
hingga September
2008 dapat
PTPP
ADHI
dilihat pada Tampilan I. Source: Company and Mansek
Where
are they
trading?INDUSTRI
The valuation
leader, WIKA
IJ (US$1.17bn
market
cap) is
TAMPILAN
1. KINERJA
PEMBIAYAAN
DALAM
LIMA TAHUN
TERAKHIR
currently trading at 19.4x 2014PE. While we do not expect any significant change in
Rp miliar in politics will play a very significant part on valuation multiple.
margin, sentiment
Following the
recent re-rating on the sector (end of March) on the back of3,500
Jokowi
200,000
presidential nomination, the sector was experiencing a 5-10% one-day average drop in
share price as market was disappointed with lower than expected PDI-P result3,000
on the
150,000
2,500
parliament election. We are positive on the long term outlook on Indonesia
infrastructure, yet believe that most of the good news is already in the price.
2,000 The
100,000
upcoming development
in politics front may provide investors with more attractive
1,500
entry level. Top pick in the sector are PTPP, WTON and WIKA.
1,000
50,000
FIGURE 42. WIKA PE BAND
WIKA
PE (x)
FIGURE 43. WSKT PE BAND
0
35
2003
30
30
25
25
Total Asset
20
Anjak Piutang
2004
2005
10
2006
0
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
20
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Kartu Kredit
15
15
500
WSKT
PE (x)
10
5
5
FIGURE 44. ADHI PE BAND
ADHI
PE (x)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Apr-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
PE (x)
Source: Bloomberg and Mansek
Salah satu karakteristik dari0 industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak PE78%
pendanaan perusahaanMean
(x) sumberMean
perusahaan pembiayaan bersumber
dari dana
perbankan,
disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi
Source: Bloomberg
and
Mansek
FIGURE 45. yang
PTPP PE
BAND besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan
cukup
pembiayaan terhadap perbankan.
Tampilan
2
menunjukkan
PE (x)
PTPPkomposisi sumber pendanaan
perusahaan pembiayaan. 25
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
0
20
15
10
5
PE (x)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Mean
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
0
PE (x)
Mean
Page 29 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
FIGURE 46. WTON PE BAND
FIGURE 47. JSMR PE BAND
WTON
PE (x)
JSMR
PE (x)
35
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
30
25
20
15
10
PE (x)
Mean
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
PE (x)
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
0
11-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
9-Apr-14
8-Apr-14
7-Apr-14
5
Mean
Potential fuel subsidy reform and full implementation of the new land acquisition
bill will be the major catalysts in the sector. The recent news flow suggesting that
reform on fuel subsidy might be executed in 2H13, during the transition period for the
new government. While savings may differ according to the reform structure, the
country’s 2013 total subsidy bill is approximately Rp200tn is similar to the annual
central government infrastructure budget. In addition, the full implementation of the
new land acquisition is expected to ease land acquisition progress, which has been the
main culprit for slow infrastructure development in Indonesia.
Toll road sector will be the major beneficiary of the land acquisition law
implementation. If successfully implemented, the new land acquisition will expedite
toll road development. In addition, it should provide investor with more certainty in
terms of project execution risk and cost. JSMR currently has ~100km of toll road
concessions that are on land acquisition stage (~18% of its 560km operating toll roads).
JSMR is currently trading at 26.0x 2014PE and 14.7x 2014EV/EBITDA.
Consumer Sector (Neutral) –
improvement
Prefer Commodity exposure & ROE
by Herman Koeswanto
FIGURE 48. CONSUMER SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
Ticker
Rating
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
AISA
Buy
2,065
2,700
6,195
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
15.9
11.7
9.7
7.7
2.6
2.2
0.0%
0.0%
37.1%
35.7%
18.0%
20.5%
GGRM
Neutral
49,600
53,000
95,435
19.5
17.2
12.0
10.8
2.9
2.6
1.8%
2.0%
13.3%
12.9%
15.9%
16.2%
ICBP
Neutral
10,000
10,700
58,310
25.4
22.8
15.1
12.8
4.2
3.8
1.9%
2.0%
3.1%
11.4%
17.3%
17.6%
INDF
Buy
7,225
8,200
63,435
15.7
12.1
8.5
6.8
2.4
2.1
2.0%
3.2%
61.8%
29.1%
16.2%
18.6%
MYOR
Sell
29,625
22,000
26,485
31.2
27.8
16.3
14.5
5.9
5.1
1.2%
1.0% -18.6%
12.5%
20.4%
19.9%
UNVR
Buy
30,750
34,500
234,623
38.1
34.0
28.0
26.2
46.4
40.4
2.3%
2.6%
15.0%
12.2% 132.2% 127.1%
17.3% -20.4%
WIIM
Buy
KLBF
Neutral
DYAN
Buy
705
940
1,481
9.6
12.0
6.3
8.2
1.7
1.6
3.1%
2.5%
19.3%
13.7%
1,520
1,275
71,250
31.5
27.1
20.8
17.9
7.7
6.7
1.5%
1.8%
9.5%
16.1%
26.0%
26.3%
236
425
1,008
11.0
7.7
5.5
4.0
1.0
0.9
0.0%
0.0%
34.4%
41.8%
9.8%
12.1%
Rushing on promotion. We expect margin compression across the board is imminent
in 2014 following significant increase of A&P spending especially from local players like
ICBP and MYOR due to more intense competition within the industry (as suggested by
media company that we have visited, suggest media companies to benefit the most
from A&P spending hike). We view the A&P spending trend to go up going forward
especially from local players that still have low budget of below 8-9% of revenue vs
multinational companies that already spent 12-13% of revenue for A&P spending
Page 30 of 60
Page 30 of 60
including UNVR. In addition, further rising raw
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
appreciation
and lower margin.
material prices would offset IDR
Industri
Multifinance
/ 5701
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax 1Q14
: +62 21 527
5711 (Debt
Research),
+62 21 527
(Debt Sales)
results
preview.
Within
our
coverage,
we
view that ICBP and MYOR potentially
to record below than market expectation results due to higher A&P spending and
potential forex loss. While GGRM, UNVR and WIIM are likely to record in-line or within
terakhir, dimana
jumlahis aset
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkat
sehingga pada
market expectation.
And INDF
potentially
to report
better
thanCAGR
market21.93%,
expectation
kuartal
III 2008
Rp153.6triliun.
hal pembiayaan
yangprice
dikucurkan,
results driven
by forex
gainmencapai
and stronger
agribusiness Dalam
performance
thanks to CPO
hike.
pembiayaan
konsumen,
danwith
kartu
kredit
mengalami
pertumbuhan
Stock picks.
At this juncture,
we sewa
prefer guna
to be usaha
selective
several
investment
criteria:
dengan
tingkat
CAGR
masing-masing
24.41%,
25.77%
dan
12.25%
1.) Company with strong NPAT growth with potential valuation rerating, 2.) Strong ROE
improvement and 3.) Company that has commodity related business exposure. Those
criteria are
fit to industri
our top pembiayaan
picks including
UNVR,
INDF. hingga
Given its
strong ROE
Kinerja
dalam
lima AISA
tahunand
terakhir
September
2008 dapat
improvement
track
record
from
61%
in
2003
up
to
126%
in
2013
with
continuously
improving cash cycle and working capital management, UNVR worth for premium
valuation and remain the key proxy of Indonesia emerging consumer sector to foreign
fund flow, in our view. In small cap stock, WIIM has the most undemanding valuation
which is trading atRp
50-60%
miliar discount to GGRM.
200,000
3,500
3,000
Heavy equipment (Neutral): Beneficiary of boom in construction sector
150,000
post election year
2,500
2,000
by Hariyanto Wijaya
100,000
1,500
FIGURE 49. HEAVY EQUIPMENT SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
50,000
Ticker
Rating
HEXA
Buy
UNTR
Neutral
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
2014
2015
3,930
5,450
3,301
13.8
9.9
21,200
17,000
79,079
15.8
15.3
2014
9.3 0
6.6
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%) 1,000
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
6.9
1.6
1.4
6.5%
2.2% -61.0%
38.2%
11.3%
6.8
2.2
2.3%
2.4%
2003
Total Asset
2.0
2004
2005
2006
3.6%
3.5%
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
14.4%
Oct-08
500
2015
14.7%
0
13.6%
Sewa Guna Usaha
Domestic heavy equipment inventory has already back to healthy level. Heavy
Anjak Piutang
Kartu (their
Kredittotal market share is around
equipment inventory of UNTR,
HEXA, INTA and KOBX
68% of domestic heavy equipment) have already back to healthy level, which should
Sumber: tight
Bank Indonesia
slightly relieve
competition in domestic heavy equipment market. Meanwhile,
competition from new comers is manageable, which can be seen from their stable
market share.
dengan spending
lembaga perbankan.
Hal iniin dibuktikan
dari should
data statistik
Bankheavy
Indonesia per
Infrastructure
should boom
2015, which
increase
September
2008
bahwa
sebanyak
78% sumber
perusahaanequipment
demand.
We yang
thinkmenyatakan
the escalation
in capital
spending
should pendanaan
occur in 2015
due to 1)perusahaan
post-election
effect.
Whoever
the
next
Indonesia
president
is,
government
capital spending
up in the first two
years post
presidential
the
sebesar tends
11% to
danspike
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya
sebesar
12.1%. election
Data iniasmempertegas
new elected
president
wants
to
show
his
contribution
to
the
nation.
2)
The
new
land
acquisition law to be fully effective by December 2014, which will remove the key
barrier to infrastructure development in Indonesia.
Demand from mining sector still weak. With coal price still below US$80 per ton,
demand from mining sector should keep weak. Based on our channel check to industry
sources, mining sector’s heavy equipment replacement cycle is not in 2014.
Maintain Neutral on sector and Reiterate Buy call on HEXA. We think HEXA as the
most exposed listed heavy equipment distributor to infrastructure sector should get
benefit from the escalation of government capital spending post-election year.
Risk to our call: 1) lower than expectation government infrastructure spending. 2)
Continuing weak coal price.
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 31 of 60
Page 31 of 60
Strategy|| |14
14 April2014
2014
Strategy
Strategy
14 April
April 2014
FIGURE 50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY
FIGURE
50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY
LEVEL
FIGURE 50. DOMESTIC HEAVY EQUIPMENT INVENTORY HAS ALREADY BACK TO HEALTHY
LEVEL
Heavy
equipment
inventory
Dec'13
LEVEL
Heavy equipment inventory Dec'11
Dec'13
Dec'12
Dec'13
YoY Chg (%)
Heavy equipment inventory
Dec'13
Dec'11
Dec'12
Dec'13
YoY Chg
(%)
UNTR (US$ mn)
216
327
167
-49.0%
Dec'11
Dec'12
Dec'13
YoY Chg
(%)
UNTR
(US$
mn)
216
327
167
-49.0%
HEXA
(US$ mn)
mn)
122
178
149
-16.3%
UNTR (US$
216
327
167
-49.0%
HEXA
(US$ mn)and Hitachi
122
178
149
-16.3%
Total Komatsu
338
505
316
-37.5%
HEXA
(US$ mn)
122
178
149
-16.3%
Total Komatsu and Hitachi
338
505
316
-37.5%
Total Komatsu and Hitachi
338
505
316
-37.5%
INTA (US$ mn)
43
76
35
-54.5%
INTA (US$
43
76
35
-54.5%
KOBX
(US$mn)
mn)
55
64
60
-5.7%
INTA (US$
mn)
43
76
35
-54.5%
KOBX
(US$
mn)
55
64
60
-5.7%
TOTAL(US$ mn)
436
646
411
-36.4%
KOBX
55
64
60
-5.7%
TOTAL Companies
436
646
411
-36.4%
Source:
TOTAL
436
646
411
-36.4%
Source: Companies
Source: Companies
FIGURE 51. STABLE MARKET SHARE OF SMALL AND NEW PLAYERS
FIGURE
51. and
STABLE
MARKET
SHARE OF
SMALL
AND
NEW PLAYERS
Small
new players'
Excavator
Market
share
in Indonesia
FIGURE
51. STABLE
MARKET
SHARE OF
SMALL
AND
NEW PLAYERS
Small and Apr'12
new players'
Excavator
Market
share
in
Indonesia
to Mar'13
Apr'13
to Dec'13
Chg (%)
Small and new players'
Excavator
Market
share in Indonesia
Apr'12 to Mar'13
to Dec'13
(%)
Volvo
4.10% Apr'13
3.30% Chg
Apr'12 to Mar'13
Apr'13 to Dec'13
Chg (%)(0.80)
Volvo
4.10%
3.30%
(0.80)
Hyundai
3.50%
4.10%
0.60
Volvo
4.10%
3.30%
(0.80)
Hyundai
3.50%
4.10%
0.60
Sumitomo
3.40%
3.10%
(0.30)
Hyundai
3.50%
4.10%
0.60
Sumitomo
3.40%
3.10%
(0.30)
Doosan
2.20%
2.60%
0.40
Sumitomo
3.40%
3.10%
(0.30)
Doosan
2.20%
2.60%
0.40
JCB
0.50%
0.50%
0.00
Doosan
2.20%
2.60%
0.40
JCB
0.50%
0.50%
0.00
Liugong
0.10%
0.50%
0.40
JCB
0.50%
0.50%
0.00
Liugong
0.10%
0.50%
0.40
Source:
Various sources
Liugong
0.10%
0.50%
0.40
Source: Various sources
Source: Various sources
FIGURE 52. GOVERNMENT CAPITAL SPENDING TENDS TO ESCALATE IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS
FIGURE
52.
GOVERNMENT
SPENDING
TENDS TO ESCALATE
IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS
THE
NEW
PRESIDENT
WANTCAPITAL
TO SHOW
HIS CONTRIBUTION
TO THE NATION.
FIGURE
52.
GOVERNMENT
CAPITAL
SPENDING
TENDS TO ESCALATE
IN THE FIRST TWO YEARS POST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS
THE
NEW
PRESIDENT
WANT
TO
SHOW
HIS
CONTRIBUTION
TO
THE
NATION.
Government
capital spending
- APBNTO 1999
2001 2002 2003
2004NATION.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014**
THE NEW PRESIDENT
WANT
SHOW2000
HIS CONTRIBUTION
TO THE
Government capital spending - APBN
Government capital spending - APBN
1999
1999
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
INITIAL budget (APBN) - in Rp tn - (a)
INITIAL budget (APBN) - in Rp tn - (a)
REVISED
budget(APBN)
(APBN--in
P)Rp
- intnRp- (a)
tn - (b)
INITIAL budget
REVISED budget (APBN - P) - in Rp tn - (b)
REVISED budget (APBN - P) - in Rp tn - (b)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
26
26
26
26
26
44
44
39
44
39
39
52
52
47
52
47
47
65
65
66
65
66
66
71
71
72
71
72
72
43
43
55
43
55
55
63
63
70
63
70
70
73
73
72
73
72
72
95
95
79
95
79
79
72
72
73
72
73
73
82
82
95
82
95
95
136
136
141
136
141
141
152
152
176
152
176
176
184
184
193
184
193
193
230
230
230
230
230
Diff - in Rp tn - (a) - (b)
Diff - in Rp tn - (a) - (b)
% Diff
Diff
- in Rp tn - (a) - (b)
% Diff
% Diff
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
(0)
(0)
-1%
(0)
-1%
-1%
(5)
(5)
-10%
(5)
-10%
-10%
(5)
(5)
-9%
(5)
-9%
-9%
1
1
2%
1
2%
2%
1
1
1%
1
1%
1%
12
12
27%
12
27%
27%
7
7
11%
7
11%
11%
(1)
(1)
-2%
(1)
-2%
-2%
(16)
(16)
-17%
(16)
-17%
-17%
2
2
2%
2
2%
2%
13
13
16%
13
16%
16%
5
5
4%
5
4%
4%
24
24
16%
24
16%
16%
8
8
4%
8
4%
4%
0%0%
0%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
-56%
N/A
-56%
-56%
26
26
100%
26
100%
38%
100%
38%
38%
42
42
106%
42
106%
61%
106%
61%
61%
37
37
79%
37
79%
-10%
79%
-10%
-10%
69
69
105%
69
105%
86%
105%
86%
86%
62
62
86%
62
86%
-11%
86%
-11%
-11%
33
33
60%
33
60%
-47%
60%
-47%
-47%
55
55
79%
55
79%
67%
79%
67%
67%
64
64
90%
64
90%
17%
90%
17%
17%
73
73
92%
73
92%
13%
92%
13%
13%
76
76
103%
76
103%
4%
103%
4%
4%
80
80
84%
80
84%
6%
84%
6%
6%
118
118
84%
118
84%
47%
84%
47%
47%
145
145
82%
145
82%
23%
82%
23%
23%
161
161
84%
161
84%
11%
84%
11%
11%
192
192
84%
192
84%
19%
84%
19%
19%
Realization - Rp tn
Realization - Rp tn
%
to REVISED
budget
Realization
- Rp
tn
% to REVISED budget
realization
% to
REVISEDgrowth
budget
% realization
growth
Ministry
%Source:
realization
growthof Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
Source: Ministry of Finance
2012 2013* 2014**
2012 2013* 2014**
Plantation (Overweight): Palm oil supply disruption by 4Q14
Plantation
Plantation (Overweight):
(Overweight): Palm
Palm oil
oil supply
supply disruption
disruption by
by 4Q14
4Q14
by Hariyanto Wijaya
by
by Hariyanto
Hariyanto Wijaya
Wijaya
FIGURE 53. PLANTATION SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
FIGURE 53. PLANTATION
SECTOR
VALUATION
TABLE
PER(x)
Last Target
Mkt.
Cap
FIGURE 53. PLANTATION
SECTOR
VALUATION
TABLE
Ticker Rating
Ticker
Ticker
AALI
AALI
BWPT
AALI
BWPT
LSIP
BWPT
LSIP
SGRO
LSIP
SGRO
SGRO
Rating
Rating
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Last Target
Cap
Price
Price Mkt.
(Rpbn)
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
27,750
43,699
Price 25,000
Price
(Rpbn)
27,750
43,699
1,315 25,000
1,750
5,861
27,750
25,000
43,699
1,315
1,750
5,861
2,250
2,200
15,351
1,315
1,750
5,861
2,250
2,200
15,351
1,995
3,000
3,771
2,250
2,200
15,351
1,995
3,000
3,771
1,995
3,000
3,771
Page 32
32 of
of 60
60
Page
Page 32 of 60
Page 32 of 60
PER(x)2015
2014
PER(x)
2014
2015
15.4
12.6
2014
2015
15.4
12.6
14.7
9.4
15.4
12.6
14.7
9.4
13.4
10.5
14.7
9.4
13.4
10.5
12.0
8.6
13.4
10.5
12.0
8.6
12.0
8.6
EV/EBITDA(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
2014
2015
EV/EBITDA(x)
2014
2015
9.1
7.3
2014
2015
9.1
7.3
10.0
6.8
9.1
7.3
10.0
6.8
7.1
5.4
10.0
6.8
7.1
5.4
6.2
4.9
7.1
5.4
6.2
4.9
6.2
4.9
P/BV(x)
P/BV(x)2015
2014
P/BV(x)
2014
2015
3.7
3.2
2014
2015
3.7
3.2
2.3
1.9
3.7
3.2
2.3
1.9
2.1
1.8
2.3
1.9
2.1
1.8
1.3
1.2
2.1
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.2
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
Div.
Yield2015
(%)
EPS Gr.(%)
2014
2014
2015
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
2014
2015
2014 22.2%
2015
2.2%
3.5%
57.9%
2014
2015
2014
2015
2.2%
3.5% 64.0%
57.9% 22.2%
0.8%
1.4%
2.2%
3.5% 57.9% 55.8%
22.2%
0.8%
1.4% 49.4%
64.0% 55.8%
2.0%
3.0%
0.8%
1.4% 64.0% 27.1%
55.8%
2.0%
3.0%
49.4%
27.1%
2.2%
40.4%
2.0%
3.0% 164.3%
49.4% 27.1%
2.2%
3.0% 164.3% 40.4%
2.2%
3.0% 164.3% 40.4%
ROE(%)
ROE(%)2015
2014
ROE(%)
2014 27.3%
2015
26.3%
2014
2015
26.3%
27.3%
16.9%
26.3% 22.2%
27.3%
16.9% 18.4%
22.2%
16.4%
16.9% 22.2%
16.4%
18.4%
11.3% 18.4%
14.4%
16.4%
11.3% 14.4%
11.3% 14.4%
Likelihood of El Nino in 2H14 is more than 70%. In 8 April 2014 report, Australian
Likelihood
of
2H14
more
70%.
8
2014
report,
Bureau
of Meteorology
estimates
greater
thanIn
chance
an ElAustralian
Niño will
Likelihood
of El
El Nino
Nino in
in
2H14 is
isthere
moreis than
than
70%.
In70%
8 April
April
2014that
report,
Australian
Bureau
of
Meteorology
estimates
there
is
greater
than
70%
chance
that
an
El
develop
in
2H14.
Meanwhile,
in
7
April
2014
report,
US
Weather
forecaster
predicts
El
Bureau of Meteorology estimates there is greater than 70% chance that an El Niño
Niño will
will
develop
in
2H14.
Meanwhile,
in
7
April
2014
report,
US
Weather
forecaster
predicts
Nino
commences
in
April-June
2014.
El
Nino
associated
with
below
normal
rainfall
develop in 2H14. Meanwhile, in 7 April 2014 report, US Weather forecaster predicts El
El
Nino
in
2014.
El
Nino
associated
with
rainfall
acrosscommences
South East Asia,
which should
curb
production
andbelow
boost normal
CPO price.
Nino
commences
in April-June
April-June
2014.
Elpalm
Ninooil
associated
with
below
normal
rainfall
across
across South
South East
East Asia,
Asia, which
which should
should curb
curb palm
palm oil
oil production
production and
and boost
boost CPO
CPO price.
price.
Please see
see important
important disclosure
disclosure at
at the
the back
back of
of this
this report
report
Please
Supply disruption by 4Q14 => CPO price would continue its uptrend by 4Q14.
Palm oil products represent around 39% of world consumed edible oils. Meanwhile,
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
unusual drought has occurred from Jan’14 until Mar’14 in Malaysia and Indonesia.
(Indonesia
and Malaysia’s
palm
oilSales)
production represents 85% of world palm oil
Industri
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt
production). Oil palm plantation requires at least 100 mm of rainfall per month to
Industriitspembiayaan
mengalami
masa pertumbuhan
pesat sepanjang
lima
tahun
preserve
production telah
potential.
Water deficit
due to dry condition
has time lag
effect
onterakhir,
palm oildimana
production,
some
4 - 6 months
(bunch
-12 months
(floral
jumlahi.e.aset
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkatfailure),
CAGR1021.93%,
sehingga
pada
abortion)
and
22
–
24
months
(sex
differentiation).
The
impact
of
water
deficit
during
Jan’14 and Mar’14 in Malaysia and Indonesia should manifest by 4Q14 by curbing CPO
production and boosting CPO price.
1Q14
earnings
LSIP should
beat25.77%
consensus
earnings expectation. As
dengan
tingkat expectation:
CAGR masing-masing
24.41%,
dan 12.25%
of 14 April 2014, consensus estimates LSIP’s revenue and net income grow by 12.9%
yoy and 17.3%yoy, respectively. We think LSIP should easily beat consensus FY14F
growth expectation considering: 1) 1Q14 domestic CPO price increase by 34% yoy and
dilihat 2)
pada
I.
4%qoq.
we Tampilan
estimate LSIP’s
FY14F production growth between 5%-10%.
Risks to our call: 1) Lower than expectation India and China palm oil consumption. 2)
Indonesia Biodiesel mandatory plan is not well executed.
Rp miliar
200,000
3,500
FIGURE 54. US
WEATHER FORECASTER PREDICTS EL NINO COMMENCES IN APRIL-JUNE
2014
3,000
150,000
2,500
2,000
100,000
1,500
1,000
50,000
500
0
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Anjak Piutang
Kartu Kredit
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Source:
NOAA
dengan
lembaga perbankan. Hal ini dibuktikan dari data statistik Bank Indonesia per
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanFIGURE
55. MOST
OF MALAYSIA
REGIONS
UNUSUAL
DROUGHT
IN JAN’14
perusahaan
pembiayaan
bersumber
dariEXPERIENCED
dana perbankan,
disusul
oleh pendanaan
obligasi
AND FEB’14
Source: Malaysian Meteorological Department
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 33 of 60
Page 33 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
FIGURE 56. MOST OF SUMATRA AND SOME OF KALIMANTAN REGIONS EXPERIENCED
UNUSUAL DROUGHT IN JAN’14 & FEB’14
Source: BMKG
FIGURE 57. CASE STUDY: WATER DEFICIT HAS 6 MONTHS TIME-LAG IMPACT
Source: MPOB (CPO production), Mandiri Sekuritas analysis
Page 34 of 60
Page 34 of 60
Property sector – Neutral – Stick with the NAV boosters
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
by Liliana Bambang
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 526 3445,
Fax : +62
21 527 Industri
5711 (Debt
Research),
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
FIGUREGeneral:
58. PROPERTY
SECTOR
VALUATION
TABLE
Ticker
Rating
APLN
Buy
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%)
Last Target Mkt. Cap Industri
pembiayaan telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
269
340
6.0
5.2
6.9
4.8
0.8
0.7
3.1%
3.3% -13.6% 16.6% 14.9% 15.4%
kuartal
III 6.2
2008 mencapai
Rp153.6triliun.
Dalam
hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
9,914
7.3
7.8
6.0
1.6
1.3
3.9%
4.7% 54.4% 17.8% 23.7% 23.2%
pembiayaan
anjak
piutang
tidak
mengalami
pertumbuhan
yang22.0%
berarti,
5,808
6.6
5.4
11.2
8.9
0.9
0.8
0.0%
0.0% 39.8%
15.0%sedangkan
15.7%
konsumen,
sewa
guna
kredit
mengalami
pertumbuhan
26,945 pembiayaan
12.5
10.6
10.8
8.9
2.3 usaha
2.0 dan
2.5%kartu
2.0%
-17.5%
17.7% 19.7%
20.0%
25.77%
dan 12.25%
15,924 dengan
13.2 tingkat
10.5 CAGR
9.6 masing-masing
7.7
2.2 24.41%,
1.8
1.1%
1.5%
33.1% 25.7% 17.7% 19.0%
5,515
ASRI
Neutral
555
680
BKSL
Neutral
185
200
BSDE
Buy
1,540
2,000
CTRA
Neutral
1,050
880
CTRS
Buy
2,285
4,000
JRPT
Buy
850
1,000
LPCK
Buy
7,650
9,850
MDLN
Neutral
453
480
5,677
PWON
Buy
345
430
16,615
SMRA
Buy
1,070
1,260
15,435
4,522
8.6
11,688 Kinerja
16.1
5,324
6.6
12.2
industri
3.8
1.7
13.4
9.6
pembiayaan
5.5
3.8
dalam
6.6
5.0
dilihat
pada 6.1
Tampilan
I.
3.9
2.0
1.4
2.1%
2.7%
27.8%
30.3%
21.6%
23.4%
1.0%
0.9% hingga
32.8% September
32.0% 25.9%
lima3.0tahun
terakhir
200827.1%
dapat
1.5
0.0%
0.0%
8.7%
36.3%
3.3
6.2
3.4
5.3
0.9
0.8
0.0%
0.0% -30.7% -46.3%
36.5%
30.8%
28.6%
13.4%
11.1
7.9
8.3
6.2
3.3
2.4
1.6%
2.1%
32.0%
41.4%
33.3%
35.3%
11.2
9.4
8.1
2.5
2.1
0.0%
0.0%
2.6%
22.3%
21.5%
20.4%
13.6
Rp miliar
•
200,000
Discount
to NAV unlikely to narrow further. At this juncture, we think 3,500
it would
be difficult for some companies to trade into 40-50% discount to NAV range
3,000 for
these reasons;
1)
Unlike
the
past
few
years,
this
year
the
companies
are
unlikely
to
150,000
beat its own marketing sales target, 2) ASP increase has been flattening. 2,500
Hence,
we prefer companies that have NAV boosters or companies that have
good
2,000
100,000
branding
and below replacement cost (for value).
1,500
•
Stick with companies that have good branding and solid products. At1,000
current
50,000
juncture, we prefer companies with good branding and solid products. Real
500
market currently avoids second tier developers. Hence, companies that has solid
0 1Q14 marketing sales that are mainly in-line, with most0 of the
branding have
companies booking
of its target
FY14F. 2007
BSDE and
JRPT are higher
200315-20%
2004
2005 for2006
Oct-08
compared to its peers, as it book 29% and 22% of its FY14F marketing sales target
Total Asset
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Sewa Guna Usaha
due to higher commercial land sale in 1Q14.
Anjak Piutang
•
Kartu Kredit
Picks: SMRA and PWON, CTRS and LPCK. PWON has potential JVs in the
immediate term, which could add to its NAV numbers. We like SMRA, due to story
of new townships in FY15F (Bandung and Gunung Geulis). We also like LPCK due
to the company’s attractive valuation and solid customer base, as its customers are
Salah
satuend
karakteristik
darialso
industri
pembiayaan
adalah
hubungannya
yang cukup
erat
mostly
users. LPCK
would
add further
JV with
landbank owners
on the
dengan
lembaga
perbankan.
ini due
dibuktikan
dari datavaluation,
statistik Bank
Indonesia
back of
its estate.
We likeHal
CTRS
to its attractive
as CTRS
is belowper
replacement
September
2008cost.
yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanperusahaan pembiayaan bersumber dari dana perbankan, disusul oleh pendanaan obligasi
FIGURE
59. 11%
PROPERTY
MARKETING SALES lainnya sebesar 12.1%. Data ini mempertegas
sebesar
dan pinjaman-pinjaman
% of
Rp
bn
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13 yang
4Q13
y/y
q/q
adanya
cukup1Q14F
besar atas
FY14F perusahaan-perusahaan
APLN
n/a
pembiayaan 1,719
terhadap 1,461
perbankan. 866
Tampilan2,307
2 menunjukkan
komposisi sumber pendanaan
CTRA
2,852
2,638
1,992
1,459
1,361
14%
-52%
-7%
ASRI
SMRA
LPCK*
BSDE
1,200
1,931
1,169
500
850
17%
-29%
70%
360
1,490
1,382
494
626
16%
74%
27%
551
657
216
274
350
15%
-36%
28%
2,599
1,596
2,286
868
1,765
29%
-32%
103%
BKSL*
507
510
742
440
230
9%
-55%
-48%
MDLN
648
647
284
1,275
448
11%
-31%
-65%
PWON*
540
660
861
942
480
16%
-11%
-49%
JRPT
482
566
382
374
430
22%
-11%
15%
Total
11,459
12,157
10,179
8,932
6,540
*Mandiri sekuritas estimates, as companies have not released its 1Q14 marketing sales
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 35 of 60
Page 35 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Poultry Sector (Neutral) – Waiting for the egg to hatch
by Herman Koeswanto
FIGURE 60. POULTRY SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%)
Ticker
Rating
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
CPIN
Neutral
4,215
4,100
69,222
23.1
19.2
16.1
13.8
5.7
4.6
1.0%
1.2%
18.3%
20.1%
27.0%
26.4%
JPFA
Neutral
1,430
1,580
15,014
16.7
13.5
9.7
8.6
2.7
2.4
1.3%
1.9%
52.0%
23.1%
17.6%
18.9%
MAIN
Buy
3,370
4,000
5,712
15.7
11.5
11.4
8.3
4.7
3.3
0.9%
1.3%
47.6%
36.7%
34.7%
33.6%
2014 Outlook. We view the current oversupply in DOC and broiler market is more on
the short-term risk rather than structural. Based on our channel check and discussion
with several feed players, the oversupply in broiler and DOC market (partly due to
JPFA’s aggressive commercial farming expansion) should stabilize in 5-6 months until
the chick culling activities stop before entering new equilibrium with improving
purchasing power. Overall we expect stronger FY14F NPAT growth mostly driven by
forex effect, yet in term of core profit not significant changes compare to last year
following higher production cost as corn and soybean prices potentially to rise in 2H14.
1Q14 results preview. Within our coverage, we view that most of poultry stocks
potentially to record below than expected 1Q14 results due to higher production cost,
carried over higher inventory cost from previous quarter following IDR depreciation
and feed price hike. While in early year 2014, DOC price and broiler chicken price were
weak due to severe floods in some area and Mt Kelud eruption plus oversupply market.
Yet from forex perspective we expect JPFA and MAIN will benefit the most from IDR
appreciation. But among others, CPIN likely to have less volatile earnings and better
1Q14 results driven by its growing and stable downstream processed chicken business.
Stock picks. Once the negatives come off, we expect pure poultry producer like MAIN
would benefit the most given its higher operating leverage with the fastest top line
growth in the industry. In addition, MAIN as our top pick also has the most
undemanding valuation. We like CPIN for its earnings stability and quality yet valuation
is not cheap. While JPFA’s aggressive commercial farming expansion could be quite
costly in short-term but worth for potential long-term growth and rerating.
Coal sector (Neutral) – A difficult year
by Ariyanto Kurniawan
FIGURE 61. COAL MINING SECTOR VALUATION TABLE
Ticker
Rating
Price
Price
(Rpbn)
ADRO
Neutral
1,010
HRUM
U/R
ITMG
Neutral
PTBA
U/R
1,050
32,306
PER(x)
EV/EBITDA(x)
P/BV(x)
Div. Yield (%)
EPS Gr.(%)
ROE(%)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
12.1
9.9
5.0
4.2
1.1
1.0
3.4%
4.1%
5.8%
22.2%
9.6%
11.0%
2,160
3,200
5,832
7.0
5.4
3.7
2.9
1.6
1.4
7.8%
10.3%
53.9%
31.7%
24.3%
27.4%
25,325
29,150
28,615
10.8
9.3
5.6
4.7
3.0
2.7
7.4%
8.6%
10.6%
16.5%
29.1%
31.0%
9,750
12,100
22,469
10.5
7.9
7.1
4.9
2.2
1.9
4.8%
6.3%
19.9%
32.6%
22.8%
26.1%
Still weak coal price outlook. Newcastle spot coal prices have stayed at below
US$80/ton since late January 2014 due to a combination of higher supply and slower
demand growth in China. Year to date coal prices have fallen by 14% to US$73/ton after
7%y-o-y drop in 2013. Weak coal price outlook is due to a combination of weak demand
and acute oversupply. Massive supply cut from key supplier such as Indonesia and
Australia, which we haven’t seen so far, is necessary to support price.
Page 36 of 60
Page 36 of 60
Weak earnings will continue this year. We expect weak earnings to continue to this
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
year
due Atosubsidiary
still weak
coalMandiri
price(Persero)
outlook.
Mandiri
Sekuritas
of PT Bank
Tbk We also see potential downgrade to our and
forecast
price
stay
at below US$80/ton. However, we do not expect
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor, consensus
Jl. Jend. Gatot Subroto
Kav. 36if- coal
38, Jakarta
12190,
Indonesia
Industri
Multifinance
/ 5701
Pembiayaan
General: +62 21 526 3445, Fax : +62 21 527
5711 (Debt
Research),
21 527
(Debt Sales)
material
impact
on +62
share
price
performance
as weak earnings is already anticipated and
coal stock share price have underperformed the index by >20%.
Focus
on cost
cutting.
global
coal prices
weaken,
cost-cutting
initiatives
through
terakhir,
dimana
jumlahAsaset
bertumbuh
dengan
tingkat
CAGR 21.93%,
sehingga
pada
lowering
stripping
ratio
(SR)
become
industry
key
focus
in
order
to
offset
declining
margins
from lower
prices.tidak
The strategy
is so pertumbuhan
far effective to yang
cut production
cost by
pembiayaan
anjakcoal
piutang
mengalami
berarti, sedangkan
up to 10% as mining cost accounts for 50-60% of production cost. However, this
strategy is unsustainable in the medium term as it would require coal miners to change
CAGR
dan 12.25%
itsdengan
miningtingkat
plan and
give masing-masing
up some of the24.41%,
reserve 25.77%
with higher
SR.
Prefer to wait until price recovery is seen. ITMG is our preference for earnings quality
and high dividend yield despite of our Neutral call. Maintain Neutral for PTBA, HRUM,
dilihat
pada Tampilan I.
and
ADRO
FIGURE 63.PEMBIAYAAN
COAL PRODUCTION
INCREASE
DESPITE LOW
TAMPILAN
KINERJA INDUSTRI
DALAM
LIMA TAHUN
TERAKHIR
FIGURE 62. PRODUCTION COSTS HAVE DECLINED
ON1.LOWER
PRICE
SR
Rp miliar
90 200,000
80 25
3,500
20
3,000
150,000
70 2,500
15
60 100,000
50 50,000
40 0
30 HRUM
PTBA
ADRO BUMI
1,500
10
1,000
5
500
0
0
2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2003
ITMG
2,000
Total Asset
1Q11 2Q11 2005
3Q11 4Q11 2006
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
2004
2007 4Q12 Oct-08
Pembiayaan
Konsumen
ITMG
HRUM
PTBA
ADRO Sewa
Guna Usaha
BUMI
Anjak Piutang
Kartu Kredit
Source: Company
Source: Company
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Page 37 of 60
Page 37 of 60
926
8,720
912
7,930
898
7,140
884
2
6,350
870
0
Price
Page 38 of 60
Page 38 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
1,884
BBTN
1,710
1,536
1,188
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
220
208
1,362
196
184
1,014
172
840
160
PE (x)
PE (x)
Apr-14
9,510
Dec-13
940
Aug-13
10,300
Apr-13
Price
PE (x)
8
6
4
Jan-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-13
10
Apr-13
BBRI
Jan-13
12
Apr-13
Rp
Oct-12
Mean
Oct-12
Jul-12
954
Jan-12
BBRI
PE (x)
Dec-12
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-12
11,090
PE (x)
Aug-12
Price
Apr-12
460
Jul-11
3,450
Oct-11
472
Jul-11
3,870
Oct-11
484
Dec-11
4,290
Jan-11
496
PE (x)
Apr-11
4,710
Jan-11
508
Jan-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
PE (x)
Apr-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Aug-11
5,130
Jul-10
520
Oct-10
5,550
Jul-10
532
Oct-10
BBNI
Apr-11
Rp
Jan-10
5,970
Apr-10
Price
Jan-10
0
Apr-10
620
Dec-10
7,300
Jul-09
5
Oct-09
630
Jul-09
8,120
Oct-09
8,940
640
Jul-09
9,760
Oct-09
650
Aug-10
660
Apr-10
10,580
Jan-09
670
Apr-09
11,400
Jan-09
BBCA
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
12,220
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
EPS CONS 2014 VS STOCK PRICE
Dec-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April2014
2014
Strategy
Appendix 1. EPS Forecast and 12m Roll Fwd PER
Rp
PER 12m ROLLING FORWARD VS LONG TERM AVE.
25
BBCA
20
15
10
Mean
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BBNI
Mean
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
BBTN
Mean
Rp
BDMN
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
852
740
140
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
BJTM
50,000
0
564
84
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
PE (x)
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
400
Apr-12
3,800
Jan-12
418
Jul-11
4,230
Oct-11
436
Price
Sewa Guna Usaha
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-11
4,660
Jan-13
Jul-12
454
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
5,090
Apr-11
5,520
Jul-10
5,950
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Oct-10
Rp
6,380
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Jan-10
Price
2006
pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanPE (x)
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
BTPN
sebesar 11% danRp pinjaman-pinjaman
PE (x)
BTPN
508
yang cukup besar atas perusahaan-perusahaan
18
490
16
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
14
472
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
300
2005
Oct-12
344
1,000
0
BJTM
PE (x)
Jul-09
388
Mean
1,500
500
Jan-09
432
2,000
Rp
Apr-09
476
2,500
PE (x)
10
2003
2004
9
78
8
Total Asset
7
Anjak
Piutang 6
72
5
4
3
66
2
1
60
Salah satu karakteristik
dari 0industri
520
3,000
Apr-10
Rp
Jul-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
148
Apr-14
150,000
Jan-14
964
3,500
Oct-13
156
Jul-13
164
Apr-13
200,000
Jan-13
1,076
Jul-12
Rp miliar
Oct-12
1,188
PEMBIAYAAN DALAM LIMA TAHUN TERAKHIR
Apr-12
172
20
INDUSTRI
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jan-12
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
BJBR
PE (x)
Jul-11
180
Oct-11
1,412
1,300
Jan-10
industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir
2008 dapat
PE (x) hingga September
Mean
dilihat pada Tampilan
I.
Rp
Apr-11
BJBR
Rp
Jan-09
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Apr-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
3,550
Jul-09
4,130
Oct-09
4,710
Jan-11
5,290
Oct-09
5,870
Oct-10
6,450
BDMN
600
20
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62
(Debt Sales)
570 21 527/ 5701
18
16
540 telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
Industri pembiayaan
14
terakhir, dimana 510
jumlah aset12 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
10
kuartal III 2008 480
mencapai 8Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
6
pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak
mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
4
450
pembiayaan konsumen, sewa2 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
420
0
Apr-09
Rp
7,030
Mean
Page 39 of 60
Page 39 of 60
SMGR
Price
Page 40 of 60
Page 40 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
1,160
Rp
PE (x)
19,000
1,130
17,450
1,100
15,900
1,070
14,350
1,040
10
12,800
1,010
5
11,250
980
0
PE (x)
Mean
25
SMGR
20
15
Jan-14
Apr-14
0
Jan-14
1,480
Apr-14
17,750
Jul-13
5
Oct-13
1,518
Jul-13
19,590
Oct-13
10
Jan-13
1,556
Apr-13
21,430
Jan-13
1,594
Apr-13
23,270
Jul-12
1,632
Oct-12
25,110
Oct-12
1,670
Jan-12
26,950
Apr-12
PE (x)
Jul-12
Rp
PE (x)
Jan-12
20,550
Jul-11
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
PE (x)
Apr-12
1,708
Jul-11
INTP
Oct-11
28,790
Jul-11
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Oct-11
Price
Jan-11
140
Apr-11
2,050
Jan-11
158
PE (x)
Apr-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-11
2,436
Jan-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
PE (x)
Apr-11
2,822
176
Jul-10
194
Oct-10
3,208
Jul-10
212
Oct-10
3,594
Jul-10
3,980
Oct-10
230
Jan-10
SMCB
Apr-10
Rp
Jan-10
4,366
Apr-10
0
Jan-10
90
Apr-10
540
Jul-09
5
Oct-09
100
Jul-09
622
Oct-09
704
110
Jul-09
786
Oct-09
120
Jul-09
130
Oct-09
868
Jan-09
140
Apr-09
950
Jan-09
1,032
Apr-09
Price
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
PNBN
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
25
PNBN
20
15
10
Mean
Rp
35
SMCB
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
25
INTP
20
15
Mean
Rp
ADHI
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
2,192
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
1,920
112
1,648
Rp miliar
1,376
200,000
832
560
0
3,256
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
80
0
2,000
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
PE (x)
500
2003
35
2004
15
10
108
2006
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
25
116
1,376
2005
30
Anjak Piutang20
0
WIKA
PE (x)
140
2,128
1,752
1,000
Mean
Rp
124
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Kartu Kredit
5
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
100
dari 0industri pembiayaan adalah hubungannya yang cukup erat
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
WSKT
PE (x)
WSKT
60
30
56 perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
pembiayaan terhadap
25
52
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
916
Jan-11
2,500
Total Asset
1,050
Apr-11
5
2,504
Rp
Jul-10
3,000
132
1,184
Oct-10
10
88
1,500
2,880
Price
Jan-10
3,500
50,000
EPS Cons (RHS)
WIKA
1,000
Apr-10
15
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
20
104
150,000
Rp
Jul-09
25
INDUSTRI
96
1,104
PTPP
PE (x)
120
Price
Oct-09
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
PTPP
Rp
Jan-09
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Apr-13
860
Jan-13
1,468
Apr-13
2,076
Jul-12
2,684
Jul-12
3,292
Oct-12
3,900
Oct-12
ADHI
290
20
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
18
274
16
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami
masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
14
258
terakhir, dimana jumlah aset12 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
10
6
pembiayaan anjak226piutang tidak
4
210
0
4,508
20
782
48
648
15
10
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
5
PE (x)
Apr-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
0
Dec-12
Apr-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
40
Mar-13
380
Jan-13
44
Dec-12
514
Mean
Page 41 of 60
Page 41 of 60
Page 42 of 60
Page 42 of 60
68,950
GGRM
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
4,296
Rp
PE (x)
63,000
4,000
57,050
3,704
25
51,100
3,408
20
45,150
3,112
39,200
2,816
33,250
2,520
PE (x)
GGRM
30
15
10
5
0
Apr-14
35
Apr-14
Mean
Jan-14
100
Jan-14
630
Oct-13
108
Oct-13
938
Jul-13
116
Apr-13
1,246
Jul-13
124
Apr-13
1,554
Jan-13
1,862
Jan-13
132
Jul-12
2,170
PE (x)
Oct-12
140
Oct-12
AISA
Jan-12
PE (x)
Jul-12
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-12
Jan-12
Apr-14
Jan-14
9-Apr-14
8-Apr-14
11-Apr-14
10-Apr-14
Mean
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
250
Jan-12
Price
PE (x)
Apr-12
4,450
Jul-11
272
Oct-11
4,940
Jul-11
294
Oct-11
5,430
Jul-11
20
Oct-11
316
Jan-11
25
5,920
Apr-11
338
Jan-11
2,478
PE (x)
Apr-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-11
Price
PE (x)
Apr-11
6,410
Jul-10
360
Oct-10
6,900
Jul-10
382
Oct-10
JSMR
Jul-10
7,390
Oct-10
30
Jan-10
Price
10-Apr-14
Apr-10
Rp
9-Apr-14
Jan-10
8-Apr-14
Apr-10
7-Apr-14
Jan-10
590
Apr-10
31
7-Apr-14
624
Jul-09
658
Oct-09
32
Jul-09
33
Oct-09
726
Jul-09
760
Oct-09
692
Jan-09
34
Apr-09
794
Jan-09
WTON
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
WTON
Rp
35
JSMR
30
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
AISA
Mean
Rp
ICBP
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
488
476
440
EPS Cons (RHS)
MYOR
01,264
2003
Total
1,196
25,236
Anjak
1,162
1,128
1,094
19,352
Asset
35
2004
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
25
Piutang20
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
Kartu Kredit
15
10
5
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Jul-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Apr-13
Apr-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
Jul-13
Oct-12
Oct-12
Oct-13
Jul-12
Jul-12
Oct-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-11
Apr-12
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
750
Oct-09
20,350
Jan-10
770
Oct-09
23,200
Jul-09
790
Jul-09
26,050
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
810
Jan-09
1,060
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
UNVR
PE (x)
UNVR
870
50
850
45
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
40
830
35
28,900
Price
2006
Apr-09
31,750
2005
30
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
34,600
1,000
0
MYOR
PE (x)
28,178
Rp
Mean
1,500
500
1,230
37,450
Jan-11
PE (x)
31,120
Price
Jul-10
Jan-09
50,000
Rp
34,062
16,410
Oct-12
2,000
0
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
Oct-10
4,850
2,500
5
Apr-10
5,450
3,000
10
452
Jan-10
150,000
Oct-09
6,050
3,500
15
464
22,294
Jul-12
20
Apr-14
200,000
Jan-14
6,650
Jul-13
Rp miliar
25
Oct-13
7,250
30
INDUSTRI
Jul-09
7,850
INDF
PE (x)
500
Apr-09
INDF
Rp
Apr-12
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
8,450
Price
Jan-12
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Rp
Oct-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
5,750
Oct-11
7,220
Jul-11
8,690
Apr-11
10,160
Jan-11
30
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami
486
terakhir, dimana jumlah aset25 bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
20
pembiayaan anjak462piutang 10tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
450
0
24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
11,630
Jan-09
13,100
ICBP
510
40
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
498
35
Apr-09
14,570
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PE (x)
Mean
Page 43 of 60
Page 43 of 60
Page 44 of 60
Page 44 of 60
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
1,194
Rp
38
1,080
966
36
852
34
738
624
32
510
30
PE (x)
PE (x)
Apr-14
0
Apr-14
0
Feb-14
210
Jan-14
5
Oct-13
5
Jul-13
248
Jan-14
286
10
Apr-13
324
Dec-13
15
Jan-13
PE (x)
Oct-12
362
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
PE (x)
Jul-12
20
Apr-12
400
PE (x)
Oct-13
25
Jan-12
EPS Cons (RHS)
Oct-11
40
Jul-11
730
PE (x)
Sep-13
892
Apr-11
44
Apr-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
PE (x)
Jul-11
1,054
Apr-11
1,216
Jan-11
48
Aug-13
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-11
1,378
Jul-10
1,540
Oct-10
52
Jun-13
1,702
Jul-10
40
Oct-10
630
Mar-13
46
Jan-10
710
Apr-10
52
May-13
790
Jan-10
58
Jan-13
870
Jul-09
64
Oct-09
950
Apr-10
DYAN
Dec-12
1,030
Apr-13
438
Jan-09
Apr-14
70
Apr-09
KLBF
Feb-13
Apr-14
Feb-14
1,110
Jul-09
ACES
Jan-14
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
WIIM
Oct-09
Price
Feb-14
Rp
Jan-14
Price
Dec-13
Price
Oct-13
Rp
Sep-13
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Rp
Aug-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
WIIM
Mean
Rp
40
KLBF
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
25
DYAN
20
15
10
Mean
40
ACES
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
ERAA
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
3,946
ERAA
334
30
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62
(Debt Sales)
300 21 527/ 5701
3,450
25
EPS Cons (RHS)
MAPI
50,000
0
10,590
488
Apr-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Oct-13
Nov-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Sewa Guna Usaha
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Jul-12
Jul-12
Oct-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jul-11
Apr-12
Apr-11
Apr-11
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-11
Apr-12
Jul-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Jul-10
Oct-09
Jan-10
1,460
Oct-09
1,600
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Jul-09
Rp
1,740
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Jul-09
Price
2007
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
RALS
PE (x)
RALS
90
30
84 perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
pembiayaan terhadap
25
78
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
4,350
2006
Jan-09
5,390
2005
Apr-09
6,430
1,000
0
MAPI
PE (x)
Jan-09
7,470
1,500
500
Apr-09
8,510
Mean
Rp
45
2004
450 2003
40
Total
412 Asset 35
30
Anjak
374 Piutang25
20
336
15
10
298
5
260
dari 0industri
9,550
Jun-12
PE (x)
Oct-10
Rp
Oct-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Price
2,000
0
Jan-14
530
100,000
2,500
5
Apr-14
2,500
3,000
10
Oct-13
5,040
538
Jul-13
150,000
3,500
15
Apr-13
7,580
20
Jan-13
546
25
Jul-12
554
Oct-12
200,000
Apr-12
10,120
Jan-12
Rp miliar
Jul-11
12,660
30
Oct-11
562
35
INDUSTRI
Apr-11
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
LPPF
PE (x)
Jan-11
570
Jul-10
17,740
15,200
Aug-12
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
Oct-10
LPPF
May-12
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Rp
Dec-11
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
970
Mar-12
1,466
Apr-10
1,962
Jan-10
2,458
Jan-12
Industri pembiayaan
20
jumlah aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
15
10
164
5
130
0
24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
2,954
20
1,320
72
1,180
15
10
66
900
60
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
1,040
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
5
0
PE (x)
Mean
Page 45 of 60
Page 45 of 60
Price
8,536
IMAS
Price
Page 46 of 60
Page 46 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
810
7,900
730
7,264
650
6,628
570
5,992
490
5,356
410
4,720
330
PE (x)
PE (x)
40
IMAS
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-14
Mean
Jan-14
500
Oct-13
5,300
Jan-14
524
Oct-13
5,900
Jul-13
548
Apr-13
6,500
Jul-13
572
Apr-13
7,100
Jan-13
596
Oct-12
7,700
Jan-13
620
Oct-12
8,300
PE (x)
Jul-12
644
Apr-12
PE (x)
Jul-12
ASII
Jan-12
8,900
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
PE (x)
May-12
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Oct-11
Price
Feb-12
60
Nov-11
360
Jan-13
68
Jul-11
454
Apr-11
548
76
PE (x)
Aug-11
84
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
PE (x)
May-11
642
Oct-12
92
Jan-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Feb-11
736
Jul-10
830
Oct-10
100
Sep-10
TELE
Nov-10
Rp
Oct-12
30
Jul-12
500
Jan-10
34
Apr-10
610
Jun-10
720
Mar-10
38
Aug-12
830
Apr-12
42
Jul-09
940
Oct-09
46
Sep-09
1,050
Jun-12
1,160
Dec-09
924
Jan-12
Price
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
RANC
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Jun-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Mar-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
RANC
Mean
Rp
14
TELE
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mean
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
ASII
Mean
Rp
HEXA
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
2,350
25
INDUSTRI
Jan-14
AALI
PE (x)
1,820
2003
Total
1,728
22,060
Anjak
1,636
16,220
Asset
25
2004
10
1,452
5
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Sewa Guna Usaha
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Oct-09
1,360
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
BWPT
PE (x)
BWPT
214
30
190
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
25
166
Oct-10
1,372
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Jan-11
1,580
2007
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Piutang15
1,544
2006
Apr-11
Rp
1,788
2005
20
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Price
1,000
0
AALI
PE (x)
24,980
1,500
500
01,912
27,900
13,300
Mean
Rp
30,820
19,140
Apr-11
50,000
Apr-09
Rp
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-13
2,000
Apr-13
0
100,000
Jul-12
1,410
14,400
Oct-12
2,500
Jan-12
5
Apr-12
1,598
16,220
Jul-11
3,000
Oct-11
10
150,000
Jan-11
1,786
18,040
Jul-10
3,500
Oct-10
15
Jan-10
200,0001,974
Apr-10
19,860
Jul-09
20
Oct-09
Rp miliar
2,162
Apr-09
21,680
Price
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
UNTR
PE (x)
2,538
25,320
23,500
Apr-11
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
Apr-14
UNTR
Rp
Jan-09
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Jul-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
2,970
Oct-10
4,216
Jan-10
5,462
Apr-10
6,708
Jul-09
7,954
Oct-09
9,200
HEXA
1,210
18
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
1,070
16
14
930
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami
12
terakhir, dimana790
kuartal III 2008650mencapai 8Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
6
pembiayaan anjak piutang tidak
4
510
370
0
Apr-09
Rp
10,446
20
142
956
118
748
94
5
540
70
0
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
15
PE (x)
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
10
Oct-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
1,164
Mean
Page 47 of 60
Page 47 of 60
200
40
Price
Price
Page 48 of 60
Page 48 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
1,274
ASRI
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
Rp
118
PE (x)
1,130
110
986
102
842
94
698
86
10
554
78
5
410
70
0
PE (x)
Apr-14
46
Jan-14
264
Apr-14
328
Dec-13
52
Sep-13
392
Jul-13
58
Oct-13
456
Jun-13
520
PE (x)
Jan-13
64
Feb-13
APLN
PE (x)
Apr-13
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jul-12
584
Jan-12
SGRO
Jul-10
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jul-13
Rp
Apr-13
Mean
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
PE (x)
Oct-12
Price
Nov-12
120
Jan-12
1,540
Apr-12
166
Jul-11
1,908
Oct-11
212
Jul-12
2,276
PE (x)
Jul-11
258
PE (x)
Oct-11
2,644
Jan-11
304
Apr-11
3,012
Apr-12
350
Jan-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-11
3,380
Jul-10
396
Oct-10
SGRO
Dec-11
Rp
Oct-10
0
Sep-11
110
Jul-10
1,000
Jan-10
5
Apr-10
148
Jan-10
1,400
Apr-10
10
Apr-10
186
Jun-11
1,800
Jan-10
15
Jul-09
224
Oct-09
2,200
Jul-09
262
Oct-09
2,600
Oct-09
300
Feb-11
3,748
Jan-09
3,000
Apr-09
338
Jul-09
Price
Jan-09
3,400
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
LSIP
Nov-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
25
LSIP
20
Mean
Rp
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
APLN
Mean
25
ASRI
20
15
Mean
Rp
BKSL
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
120
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
CTRA
Rp
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
2003
40
2004
2005
35
58
798
2006
2007
30
Pembiayaan Konsumen
25
Kartu Kredit
Anjak Piutang
66
Jan-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
1,000
0
CTRA
PE (x)
Total Asset
74
1,500
500
90
82
1,194
Mean
Rp
1,590
1,392
Jul-12
Jan-09
PE (x)
Oct-12
2,000
Jan-12
0
Apr-12
80
50,000
0
1,788
996
Apr-10
2,500
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
5
Jul-11
950
3,000
Oct-11
1,200
10
90
Jan-11
150,000
Apr-11
1,450
3,500
Apr-14
100
15
Jul-10
200,000
20
110
Oct-10
1,700
Jan-10
Rp miliar
25
INDUSTRI
Apr-10
1,950
BSDE
PE (x)
130
Jul-09
2,450
2,200
Jul-09
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
Oct-09
BSDE
Rp
Jan-09
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Oct-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
20
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
15
10
5
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
210
Jul-10
1,200
Oct-10
236
Jul-10
1,730
Oct-10
262
Jan-10
2,260
Apr-10
288
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
2,790
Jan-10
3,320
Apr-10
3,850
Jul-09
Rp
4,380
Oct-09
Price
Jul-09
50
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
CTRS
PE (x)
CTRS
366
18
340
16
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
14
314
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
600
Oct-09
150
Apr-09
188
Apr-09
226
Jan-09
264
Apr-09
302
Jan-09
340
Oct-12
BKSL
16
900
14
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
800
12
700
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami
10
600
terakhir, dimana 8jumlah aset500bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
kuartal III 2008 6 mencapai 400
Rp153.6triliun. Dalam hal pembiayaan yang dikucurkan,
300
pembiayaan anjak4 piutang 200
tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
2
100 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
sewa
0
0
Apr-09
378
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
PE (x)
Mean
Page 49 of 60
Page 49 of 60
430
382
334
286
238
190
Price
Page 50 of 60
Page 50 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
Rp
36
32
28
24
20
PE (x)
PE (x)
Apr-14
PWON
Jan-14
478
PE (x)
Oct-13
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
30
Jul-13
210
Jan-13
46
Apr-13
282
Oct-12
62
Jan-13
426
Oct-12
78
Jul-12
354
PE (x)
Jul-12
94
Jan-12
498
Jul-11
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
May-13
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
Nov-11
PE (x)
Apr-12
570
PE (x)
Apr-12
110
Oct-11
MDLN
Jan-12
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jul-11
Rp
PE (x)
Oct-11
0
Apr-11
642
Jan-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
PE (x)
Jul-11
640
Mar-11
2
3,170
Dec-10
764
Apr-11
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-11
4,676
Jan-11
888
Aug-10
6,182
Jul-10
1,012
Oct-10
7,688
Oct-10
1,136
Apr-10
9,194
Jul-10
1,260
Jan-10
10,700
May-10
1,384
Jan-10
LPCK
Apr-10
Rp
Oct-09
50
Jan-10
52
Jul-09
540
15
Oct-09
646
54
Sep-09
752
20
Jul-09
858
56
Jul-09
964
Oct-09
1,070
Jan-09
58
Apr-09
1,176
Jun-09
12,206
Feb-09
Price
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
JRPT
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
25
JRPT
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
12
LPCK
10
8
6
4
Mean
Rp
140
MDLN
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mean
40
PWON
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
SMRA
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
266
EPS Cons (RHS)
JPFA
0
2,332
2,080
2003
35
2004
Anjak Piutang20
15
10
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Apr-12
Jan-14
Jul-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Sewa Guna Usaha
5
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-11
3,548
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Nov-11
4,100
2007
100
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
MAIN
PE (x)
MAIN
342
30
320
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
25
298
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
4,652
2006
Pembiayaan Konsumen
25
124
112
2005
30
1,576
0
JPFA
PE (x)
160
136
Price
1,000
Mean
500
Total Asset
1,072
1,500
Rp
1,828
820
Oct-10
PE (x)
148
1,324
Jan-12
Jan-09
50,000
Oct-09
Rp
Jan-10
2,000
0
Apr-14
210
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
Apr-12
2,570
2,500
5
Jul-11
3,156
3,000
10
224
Oct-11
150,000
3,500
15
Jan-11
3,742
20
Oct-13
238
Price
Apr-10
25
252
Apr-11
200,000
Jul-10
4,328
30
Oct-10
Rp miliar
35
INDUSTRI
Jan-10
4,914
CPIN
PE (x)
280
Apr-10
6,086
5,500
Jul-09
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
Jul-09
CPIN
Oct-09
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Rp
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
710
Oct-09
866
Apr-09
1,022
Apr-09
Industri pembiayaan
telah mengalami masa pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
74
20
15
66
kuartal III 2008 mencapai
10
pembiayaan anjak58piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
5
50
0
24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
1,178
Apr-09
20
276
2,444
254
1,892
232
5
1,340
210
0
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
15
PE (x)
Apr-14
Dec-13
Aug-13
May-13
Jun-12
Feb-12
Mar-11
Dec-10
Aug-10
Jan-10
10
May-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
2,996
Sep-09
1,334
Jun-09
1,490
SMRA
90
30
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
82
25
Feb-09
1,646
Mean
Page 51 of 60
Page 51 of 60
Price
18,456
PTBA
9,120
Price
Page 52 of 60
Page 52 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
2,140
5
22,520
2,420
0
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
Rp
PE (x)
16,900
1,920
15,344
1,700
13,788
1,480
12,232
1,260
10
10,676
1,040
5
820
0
PE (x)
Mean
25
PTBA
20
15
Apr-14
2,892
Apr-14
26,556
Jan-14
10
Jan-14
3,364
Jul-13
30,592
Oct-13
15
Jul-13
3,836
Oct-13
34,628
Jan-13
4,308
Apr-13
38,664
Jan-13
4,780
Apr-13
42,700
Oct-12
PE (x)
Oct-12
5,252
Jul-12
PE (x)
Jul-12
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Jan-12
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
230
Apr-12
2,120
Jan-12
ITMG
PE (x)
Apr-12
374
Jul-12
3,016
Jul-11
518
Oct-11
3,912
Apr-12
20
Jul-11
46,736
PE (x)
Oct-11
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-11
Price
Jul-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
PE (x)
Apr-11
662
Jan-12
25
4,808
Jan-11
806
Jan-11
5,704
Oct-11
950
Jul-10
6,600
Oct-10
1,094
Jul-10
HRUM
Oct-10
0
Jan-10
90
Apr-10
650
Jul-11
5
Jan-10
116
Apr-10
870
Jan-10
142
Apr-10
1,090
Jul-09
168
Oct-09
1,310
Apr-11
194
Oct-09
1,530
Oct-09
220
Jan-11
1,750
Jul-09
Rp
Jan-09
246
Apr-09
1,970
Jul-09
7,496
Oct-10
Price
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
ADRO
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
30
ADRO
25
20
15
10
Mean
Rp
35
HRUM
30
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
25
ITMG
20
Mean
Rp
MEDC
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
ANTM
0
1,732
178
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Apr-11
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Sewa Guna Usaha
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
80
Apr-11
1,770
Jul-10
128
Oct-10
2,050
Jul-10
176
Oct-10
2,330
Jan-10
224
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
2,610
Apr-10
2,890
Jan-10
3,170
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Apr-10
Rp
3,450
Pembiayaan Konsumen
Jul-09
Price
2007
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
INCO
PE (x)
INCO
368
70
320
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan.
60
272
50
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
940
2006
Oct-09
1,072
2005
Jul-09
1,204
1,000
0
ANTM
PE (x)
Oct-09
1,336
1,500
500
Jan-09
1,468
Mean
Rp
90
2004
150 2003
80
Total
122 Asset 70
60
Anjak
Piutang50
94
40
66
30
20
38
10
10
dari 0industri
1,600
Oct-10
PE (x)
Oct-12
Jan-09
50,000
2,000
Jan-12
340
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
2,500
Apr-12
3,470
362
3,000
Jul-11
4,046
384
Oct-11
150,000
3,500
Jan-11
4,622
406
Apr-11
200,000
Jul-10
5,198
Oct-10
Rp miliar 428
Jan-10
5,774
Apr-10
450
18
INDUSTRI
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jul-09
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
6,350
PGAS
PE (x)
Oct-09
472
Apr-09
PGAS
Rp
Jan-10
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
6,926
Price
Apr-10
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Rp
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
1,440
Jul-09
1,742
Oct-09
2,044
Apr-09
pertumbuhan pesat sepanjang lima tahun
pembiayaan anjak piutang 20tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
80
10 guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
pembiayaan konsumen, sewa
20
0
24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
2,346
Apr-09
2,648
Jan-09
2,950
MEDC
380
70
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62
(Debt Sales)
320 21 527/ 5701
60
260 telah mengalami
Industri pembiayaan
masa
50
Apr-09
3,252
40
30
20
10
0
PE (x)
Mean
Page 53 of 60
Page 53 of 60
4,620
298
3,960
284
3,300
270
Price
Price
Page 54 of 60
Page 54 of 60
EPS Cons (RHS)
2,656
TLKM
2,480
2,304
1,952
EPS Cons (RHS)
PE (x)
Rp
170
164
2,128
158
152
1,776
146
1,600
140
PE (x)
PE (x)
Apr-14
5,280
Jan-14
312
Jan-14
5,940
Oct-13
326
Oct-13
6,600
PE (x)
Jul-13
340
Apr-13
TBIG
Jul-13
7,260
PE (x)
Jan-13
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-13
110
Oct-12
3,500
Jan-13
Price
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
PE (x)
Jul-12
164
Apr-12
4,240
Oct-12
218
Jan-12
4,980
Oct-11
272
PE (x)
Jul-12
5,720
Jul-10
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
PE (x)
Jul-11
326
Apr-12
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-11
6,460
Jan-12
380
Jan-11
7,200
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
Oct-10
434
Apr-10
ISAT
Oct-11
Rp
Jul-10
7,940
Jan-10
0
Apr-10
90
Jan-10
4,000
Apr-10
10
Oct-09
174
Jul-11
4,660
Jan-10
258
Jul-09
5,320
Oct-09
342
Jul-09
5,980
Apr-11
426
Oct-09
6,640
Apr-09
510
Jan-11
7,300
Jul-09
Price
Jan-09
594
Apr-09
7,960
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
EXCL
Oct-10
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Rp
60
EXCL
50
40
30
20
Mean
Rp
ISAT
Mean
Rp
35
TBIG
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
TLKM
Mean
Rp
TAXI
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
50
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
BEST
1,030
Apr-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Sep-13
Jul-13
May-13
PE (x)
2003
16
2004
82
478
2005
14
2006
2007
12
Pembiayaan Konsumen
10
Kartu Kredit
Anjak Piutang
94
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
1,000
0
BEST
PE (x)
130
106
1,500
500
Total Asset
754
Mean
Rp
118
892
Jul-12
Jan-09
50,000
0
1,168
616
Mar-13
2,000
Jan-12
0
2,500
Apr-12
20
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
5
Jul-11
190
26
Oct-11
348
3,000
10
Oct-13
32
150,000
3,500
15
Apr-11
506
20
Jan-11
38
Oct-10
200,000
Jul-10
664
Apr-10
44
Jan-10
Rp miliar
25
Jul-09
822
30
INDUSTRI
Oct-09
980
ARNA
PE (x)
56
1,138
Rp
Jan-13
Nov-12
Apr-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Kinerja industri pembiayaan dalam lima tahun terakhir
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
EPS Cons (RHS)
ARNA
Rp
kuartal III 2008 mencapai
74
10
pembiayaan anjak72piutang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan yang berarti, sedangkan
5
70
sewa guna usaha dan kartu kredit mengalami pertumbuhan
0
68
Apr-09
Price
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
TAXI
86
84
30
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
82
25
Industri pembiayaan
20
78
terakhir, dimana jumlah
aset bertumbuh dengan tingkat CAGR 21.93%, sehingga pada
15
76
8
Oct-08
Sewa Guna Usaha
6
4
2
Price
Rp
11,570
10,750
9,930
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-13
70
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
BMRI
PE (x)
BMRI
910
16
890 perbankan.
pembiayaan terhadap
14
12
870
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
340
10
9,110
850
8,290
7,470
830
6,650
810
8
6
4
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
PE (x)
Jan-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-09
0
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
2
Mean
Page 55 of 60
Page 55 of 60
Page 56 of 60
Page 56 of 60
Price
EPS Cons (RHS)
EPS Cons (RHS)
400
260
PE (x)
Rp
16
610
14
470
12
330
10
PE (x)
PE (x)
Apr-14
Feb-14
0
Mean
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
JKON
Dec-13
450
Jan-14
20
Oct-13
514
Oct-13
40
Jul-13
578
Aug-13
80
Apr-13
60
Jun-13
642
Apr-13
100
Feb-13
80
Jan-13
540
PE (x)
Oct-12
JKON
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
PE (x)
Jul-12
706
Oct-12
100
Dec-12
770
Apr-12
680
PE (x)
Jan-12
120
Oct-11
EPS Cons (RHS)
Aug-12
GIAA
Apr-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Oct-13
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
PE (x)
Jul-11
834
PE (x)
Jun-12
Price
Apr-11
0
Oct-12
50
Apr-12
680
Feb-12
5
Jan-11
744
56
Oct-10
62
Aug-12
808
Jul-10
872
Jun-12
68
Oct-11
74
Dec-11
936
Aug-11
1,000
Apr-12
80
Feb-11
220
Dec-10
236
Feb-12
1,064
Apr-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
252
Apr-10
Price
Aug-13
268
Jun-11
Price
Jul-13
Jun-13
284
Jan-10
Rp
May-13
300
Oct-09
Rp
Apr-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
316
Apr-11
Jul-12
Aug-12
BSIM
Jul-09
CASS
Dec-11
Rp
Feb-11
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
Apr-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Jan-09
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
April 2014
Strategy
2014
40
BSIM
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Mean
Rp
25
CASS
20
15
10
Mean
Rp
140
GIAA
120
60
40
20
0
Mean
Rp
MPMX
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
PE (x)
Rp
10
TAMPILAN 1. KINERJA
Rp miliar
352
200,000
268
14
INDUSTRI
8
3,500
6
3,000
4
40
2,000
EPS Cons (RHS)
SSIA
0
1,884
1,660
2003
30
2004
Anjak
206 Piutang
10
182
5
Feb-13
May-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-11
Feb-11
May-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
Nov-11
Sewa Guna Usaha
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Apr-14
Apr-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Jan-13
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-12
Oct-12
Apr-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Jan-12
Jan-12
Oct-12
Jul-11
Oct-11
Apr-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jan-11
Oct-11
Jul-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Oct-10
Jan-10
Jan-10
Jul-10
Oct-09
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jul-09
Jul-09
178
10
1,154
144
5
950
110
0
Please
2 ofimportant
Pagesee
16
Jan-09
1,358
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
212
EPS Cons (RHS)
Apr-09
15
1,562
Price
Jan-09
1,766
Oct-08
Kartu Kredit
Apr-09
1,970
2007
170
Mean
EPS Cons (RHS)
TINS
PE (x)
TINS
314
25
280
pembiayaan terhadap
perbankan. Tampilan 2 menunjukkan komposisi sumber pendanaan
20
246
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Rp
2006
Pembiayaan Konsumen
20
15
2,174
Feb-10
2005
25
1,212
Price
1,000
0
SSIA
PE (x)
242
194
1,500
500
Total
218 Asset
540
Mean
Rp
1,436
764
May-10
PE (x)
230
988
Nov-09
Feb-09
50,000
Aug-09
0
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
100,000
May-09
100
Rp
Apr-14
2,500
2
Price
Mar-14
Feb-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Dec-13
10
150,000
184
12
Feb-14
436
NIPS
PE (x)
42
Nov-13
604
520
Oct-13
2008 dapat
Mean
I.
Rp
Aug-13
NIPS
Rp
Nov-13
EPS Cons Kinerja
(RHS)
Price
Oct-13
910
Sep-13
1,028
Aug-13
1,146
Jul-13
1,264
Jul-13
Industri pembiayaan
8
6
4
2
140
0
24.41%, 25.77% dan 12.25%
1,382
Jun-13
1,500
MPMX
152
12
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
+62 21 527/ 5701
(Debt Sales)
May-13
1,618
PE (x)
Mean
Page 57 of 60
Page 57 of 60
April 2014
Strategy
2014
Appendix 2. Mandiri Sekuritas Earnings Guide
JCI
Code
Rating
Mandiri Universe
Last Target
Mkt Cap
Price
Price
(Rp Bn)
(Rp)
(Rp)
2,962,342
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
15.9
13
12.0
10.7
3
3
2.4%
2.7% 11.3% 19.0% 23.2% 29.2%
Banking
PER (x)
EV/EBITDA
P/BV (x)
Div. Yield
EPS Growth
2014
2015
ROE
2014
2015
728,979
11.9
9.9
N.A.
N.A.
2.3
1.9
2.1%
2.1%
7.9% 19.7% 20.6% 21.0%
BBCA
Neutral
11,250
10,500
277,369
17.6
14.8
N.A.
N.A.
3.7
3.1
1.3%
1.5%
10.3%
19.0%
22.5%
22.5%
BBNI
Neutral
4,950
4,750
92,311
9.9
8.3
N.A.
N.A.
1.7
1.4
2.9%
2.5%
3.0%
19.5%
18.2%
18.7%
BBRI
Buy
9,775
10,600
241,141
10.5
8.8
N.A.
N.A.
2.5
2.0
2.2%
2.4%
7.1%
19.2%
26.0%
25.4%
BBTN
Buy
1,250
1,500
12,946
7.4
6.6
N.A.
N.A.
1.0
0.9
3.0%
3.4%
12.0%
13.0%
14.3%
14.4%
BDMN
Neutral
4,550
4,300
43,610
10.0
8.2
N.A.
N.A.
1.3
1.1
2.8%
3.0%
7.7%
21.8%
13.3%
14.6%
BJBR
Buy
1,145
1,300
11,102
7.4
6.5
N.A.
N.A.
1.5
1.3
5.6%
6.1%
9.4%
13.4%
21.1%
21.1%
BJTM
Neutral
477
500
7,045
7.3
6.0
N.A.
N.A.
1.2
1.1
8.6%
8.6%
17.0%
21.5%
16.4%
18.4%
BTPN
Buy
4,100
5,275
23,945
9.9
7.7
N.A.
N.A.
1.9
1.6
0.0%
0.0%
13.4%
27.9%
21.7%
22.3%
PNBN
Buy
810
780
9.0%
25.1%
12.7%
14.3%
Infrastructure
19,511
7.9
6.3
N.A.
N.A.
1.0
0.9
4.1%
2.5%
282,711
17.2
15.1
10.3
9.1
3.4
3.0
2.0%
2.3% 12.0% 14.0% 21.3% 20.9%
SMCB
Neutral
2,800
2,700
21,459
16.7
14.8
8.4
7.8
2.2
2.0
1.3%
1.8%
35.2%
12.9%
13.9%
14.1%
INTP
Buy
22,950
24,000
84,484
15.5
13.9
9.6
8.6
3.2
2.7
1.9%
2.1%
8.5%
11.7%
21.9%
21.0%
SMGR
Buy
15,925
16,600
94,459
16.0
14.2
10.7
9.6
3.9
3.4
2.8%
3.1%
9.9%
12.9%
26.2%
25.7%
ADHI
Buy
2,975
2,500
5,359
14.2
10.1
5.2
4.1
3.0
2.4
2.3%
2.1%
-7.2%
40.9%
22.6%
26.5%
PTPP
Buy
1,775
2,100
8,595
16.7
13.9
5.9
4.7
3.7
3.0
1.7%
1.8%
22.6%
20.2%
23.8%
24.0%
WIKA
Buy
2,265
2,300
13,829
20.7
17.5
10.9
9.4
4.0
3.4
1.2%
1.4%
17.2%
18.2%
20.9%
21.1%
18.5%
WSKT
Neutral
715
600
6,887
17.5
13.0
9.6
8.0
2.6
2.2
1.6%
1.7%
7.1%
34.8%
15.6%
WTON
Buy
765
800
6,667
23.0
18.3
11.0
9.6
3.2
2.8
1.3%
1.5%
19.5%
25.5%
20.9%
16.4%
JSMR
Buy
6,025
6,200
40,970
26.0
23.7
14.7
13.6
4.0
3.6
1.3%
1.5%
18.1%
9.7%
16.1%
15.9%
558,221
26.4
22.7
15.6
13.5
5.8
5.2
1.9%
2.3% 17.5% 16.3% 23.3% 24.2%
2,065
2,700
6,195
15.9
11.7
9.7
7.7
2.6
2.2
0.0%
Consumer
AISA
Buy
0.0%
37.1%
35.7%
18.0%
GGRM
Neutral
49,600
53,000
95,435
19.5
17.2
12.0
10.8
2.9
2.6
1.8%
2.0%
13.3%
12.9%
15.9%
16.2%
ICBP
Neutral
10,000
10,700
58,310
25.4
22.8
15.1
12.8
4.2
3.8
1.9%
2.0%
3.1%
11.4%
17.3%
17.6%
INDF
Buy
7,225
8,200
63,435
15.7
12.1
8.5
6.8
2.4
2.1
2.0%
3.2%
61.8%
29.1%
16.2%
18.6%
MYOR
Sell
29,625
22,000
26,485
31.2
27.8
16.3
14.5
5.9
5.1
1.2%
1.0% -18.6%
12.5%
20.4%
19.9%
UNVR
Buy
30,750
34,500
234,623
38.1
34.0
28.0
26.2
46.4
40.4
2.3%
2.6%
15.0%
12.2% 132.2% 127.1%
17.3% -20.4%
WIIM
Buy
KLBF
Neutral
DYAN
Buy
705
940
1,481
9.6
12.0
6.3
8.2
1.7
1.6
3.1%
2.5%
19.3%
13.7%
1,520
1,275
71,250
31.5
27.1
20.8
17.9
7.7
6.7
1.5%
1.8%
9.5%
16.1%
26.0%
26.3%
236
425
34.4%
41.8%
9.8%
12.1%
Transportation
TAXI
20.5%
1,008
11.0
7.7
5.5
4.0
1.0
0.9
0.0%
0.0%
2,897
18.7
14.8
6.9
5.5
3.2
2.7
1.1%
1.6% 17.2% 26.2% 18.1% 19.7%
2,897
18.7
14.8
6.9
5.5
3.2
2.7
1.1%
1.6%
26.2%
18.1%
161%
Buy
1,350
1,600
85,455
22.2
18.0
13.4
11.3
6.2
4.7
1.4%
1.7% 17.8% 23.0%
ACES
U/R
785
U/R
13,463
25.7
21.7
18.4
15.3
5.8
4.8
0.7%
0.8%
2.9%
18.5%
n/a
ERAA
U/R
1,335
U/R
3,872
9.9
8.6
6.0
5.3
1.2
1.1
3.0%
3.4%
12.1%
15.9%
n/a
n/a
LPPF
U/R
14,900
U/R
43,477
27.1
21.2
18.8
15.5
156.1
17.2
1.2%
1.7%
0.0%
28.0%
-412%
n/a
Retail
17.2%
19.7%
n/a
MAPI
U/R
5,950
U/R
9,877
22.1
17.2
9.0
8.0
3.5
2.9
0.6%
0.8%
36.6%
28.6%
37.0%
n/a
RALS
U/R
1,310
U/R
9,296
19.5
17.2
11.1
9.9
2.7
2.5
2.6%
3.0%
22.0%
13.5%
29.7%
n/a
RANC
U/R
645
U/R
1,009
20.6
17.2
11.0
8.3
2.3
2.1
1.0%
1.2%
42.6%
19.4%
n/a
n/a
TELE
U/R
805
U/R
4,462
12.3
10.1
7.1
5.9
3.5
2.8
2.9%
3.3%
21.3%
21.8%
n/a
n/a
9.1% 15.0% 40.6%
Automotive
325,301
14.9
13.0
12.4
11.1
3.2
2.8
2.9%
3.2%
ASII
U/R
7,700
U/R
311,723
14.9
13.0
12.6
11.3
3.3
2.9
2.9%
3.3%
7.3%
14.6%
38.9%
n/a
IMAS
U/R
4,910
U/R
13,578
14.5
11.7
9.1
7.6
2.1
1.8
1.1%
1.5%
76.0%
24.1%
n/a
n/a
82,380
15.5
15.6
6.7
6.8
2.1
2.0
2.3%
2.3%
2.9%
-1.0% 14.4% 13.6%
Heavy Equipment
HEXA
Buy
UNTR
Neutral
Page 58 of 60
Page 58 of 60
3,930
5,450
3,301
13.8
9.9
9.3
6.9
1.6
1.4
6.5%
2.2% -61.0%
21,200
17,000
79,079
15.8
15.3
6.6
6.8
2.2
2.0
2.3%
2.4%
3.6%
38.2%
11.3%
14.7%
3.5%
14.4%
13.6%
JCI
Code
Rating
Last Target
PER (x)
EV/EBITDA
P/BV (x)
Mkt Cap
Price
Price
(Rp Bn)
2014
2015
2014
2015
2014
2015
(Rp)
(Rp)
68,682
14.6 Subroto
11.5
2.8
2.4
Plaza Mandiri 28th Floor,
Jl. Jend. Gatot
Kav. 36 -8.5
38, Jakarta6.6
12190, Indonesia
TINJAUAN INDUSTRI
Plantation
Multifinance
Pembiayaan
General: +62
21 526 3445,
Fax : +62 43,699
21 527 Industri
5711 (Debt
21 527/ 5701
Sales)
Buy
27,750
25,000
15.4 Research),
12.6 +629.1
7.3(Debt 3.7
3.2
AALI
BWPT
Buy
1,315
1,750
LSIP
Buy
2,250
2,200
SGRO
Buy
1,995
3,000
Property
APLN
Buy
269
340
ASRI
Neutral
555
680
BKSL
Neutral
BSDE
Buy
CTRA
Neutral
1,050
880
CTRS
Buy
2,285
185
200
1,540
2,000
Div. Yield
EPS Growth
2014
2015
2.0%
3.2% 61.7% 27.5% 20.5% 22.6%
2.2%
3.5%
57.9%
2015
ROE
2014
22.2%
2014
26.3%
2015
27.3%
5,861
14.7
9.4
10.0
2.3
1.9
0.8%
1.4% 64.0% 55.8% 16.9% 22.2%
Industri
pembiayaan
telah 6.8
mengalami
masa
pertumbuhan
pesat sepanjang lima tahun
13.4
10.5
7.1
5.4
2.1
1.8
2.0%
3.0% 49.4% 27.1% 16.4% 18.4%
3,771
12.0
8.6
6.2
4.9
1.3
1.2
2.2%
3.0% 164.3% 40.4% 11.3% 14.4%
123,367
9.6
8.4
8.2
6.9
1.9
1.6
1.5%
1.6%
4.7% 14.2% 22.1% 20.9%
5,515
6.0
5.2
6.9
4.8
0.8
0.7
3.1%
3.3% -13.6% 16.6% 14.9% 15.4%
pembiayaan
konsumen,
sewa
guna
usaha
dan3.9%
kartu4.7%
kredit54.4%
mengalami
pertumbuhan
9,914
7.3
6.2
7.8
6.0
1.6
1.3
17.8% 23.7% 23.2%
dengan
tingkat
CAGR
masing-masing
24.41%,
25.77%
dan
12.25%
5,808
6.6
5.4
11.2
8.9
0.9
0.8
0.0%
0.0% 39.8% 22.0% 15.0% 15.7%
15,351
26,945
12.5
10.6
10.8
8.9
2.3
2.0
2.5%
2.0% -17.5%
17.7%
19.7%
20.0%
4,000
tahun1.1%
terakhir
2008 19.0%
dapat
15,924Kinerja
13.2 industri
10.5 pembiayaan
9.6
7.7 dalam
2.2 lima 1.8
1.5%hingga
33.1%September
25.7% 17.7%
4,522dilihat8.6pada Tampilan
6.6
5.5I.
3.8
1.7
1.4
2.1%
2.7% 27.8% 30.3% 21.6% 23.4%
11,688
16.1
12.2
13.4
9.6
3.8
3.0
1.0%
0.9%
32.0%
25.9%
27.1%
JRPT
Buy
850
1,000
LPCK
Buy
7,650
9,850
MDLN
Neutral
453
480
PWON
Buy
345
430
16,615
11.1
7.9
8.3
6.2
3.3
2.4
1.6%
2.1%
32.0%
41.4%
33.3%
SMRA
Buy
1,070
1,260
15,435
13.6
200,000
11.2
9.4
8.1
2.5
2.1
0.0%
0.0%
2.6%
22.3%
3,500 20.4%
21.5%
89,948
21.1
17.3
13.7
11.7
4.8
3.9
1.1%
1.3% 26.4% 22.2% 24.7%
3,00024.8%
19.2
16.1
150,000
Poultry
32.8%
5,324TAMPILAN
6.6
6.1
5.0
3.9
2.0PEMBIAYAAN
1.5
0.0% DALAM
0.0% 36.5%
8.7% 36.3%
28.6%
1. KINERJA
INDUSTRI
LIMA TAHUN
TERAKHIR
5,677
3.3
6.2
3.4
5.3
0.9
0.8
0.0%
0.0% -30.7% -46.3% 30.8% 13.4%
Rp miliar
35.3%
CPIN
Neutral
4,215
4,100
69,222
23.1
13.8
5.7
4.6
1.0%
1.2%
18.3%
20.1%
27.0%
JPFA
Neutral
1,430
1,580
15,014
16.7
13.5
9.7
8.6
2.7
2.4
1.3%
1.9%
52.0%
23.1%
17.6%
18.9%
MAIN
Buy
3,370
4,000
5,712
15.7
11.5
100,000
11.4
8.3
4.7
3.3
0.9%
1.3%
47.6%
36.7%
34.7%
33.6%
235,907
15.9
11.6
6.0
5.2
2.5
2.2
4.3%
5.2%
1,50035.0%
-6.2% 37.5% 18.0%
9.9
50,000
5.0
4.2
1.1
1.0
3.4%
4.1%
5.8%
22.2%
-2.2
0.8
0.8
-4.4
4.4
4.6%
9.2%
0%
50.0%
3.7
2.9
1.6
1.4
7.8%
10.3%
53.9%
31.7%
24.3%
27.4%
5.6
4.7
3.0
2.7
7.4%
8.6%
10.6%
16.5%
29.1%
31.0%
2003
7.1
4.9 2004 2.2
2005
1.9
Energy
ADRO
Neutral
BUMI
U/R
1,010
1,050
32,306
12.1
231
U/R
4,799
-1.1
HRUM
Neutral
2,160
3,200
5,832
7.0
5.4
ITMG
Neutral
25,325
29,150
28,615
10.8
9.3
PTBA
Neutral
9,750
12,100
22,469
10.5
ENRG
U/R
96
U/R
4,286
4.5
7.9
MEDC
U/R
2,555
U/R
8,514
18.5
6.5
PGAS
U/R
5,325
U/R
129,086
13.6
12.9
ANTM
U/R
1,125
U/R
BRMS
U/R
219
INCO
U/R
3,480
0
4.5 Total
13.4Asset13.3
n/a
4.7
4.1
0.9
9.2
8.4
4.1
50,909Sumber:
71.2 Bank29.5
14.4
Indonesia
10.9
10,731
75.0
25.7
15.0
11.0
U/R
5,600
-20.7
-20.7
39.1
31.1
U/R
34,578
Metal
Anjak Piutang
2,500 26.4%
2,000
9.6%
1,000 11.0%
n/a
500
0
n/a
2006 6.3%200719.9% Oct-08
4.8%
32.6% 22.8% 26.1%
n/a
0.0%Konsumen
0.0% -49.0% Sewa
0.0%
1.5%
n/a
Pembiayaan
Guna Usaha
0.8
1.7%
3.3% 217.1% 184.6%
3.4%
n/a
3.6
4.0%
4.4%
-7.5%
5.4%
64.5%
n/a
1.6
1.6
0.9%
1.5%
N/M
141%
7.1%
0.8
0.8
1.1%
1.2% -65.1% 191.4%
3.4%
n/a
n/a
n/a
0.0%
0.0%
n/a
n/a
Kartu Kredit
78.9%
0.0%
41.0
21.9
12.9
9.9
1.9
1.8
0.9%
1.8% 105.1% 87.5% 10.4%
n/a
Telecommunication
327,584
17.6
15.3
5.4
5.1
3.0
2.7
3.6%
4.0% 29.7% 14.7% 37.7%
September 2008 yang menyatakan bahwa sebanyak 78% sumber pendanaan perusahaanEXCL
U/R
4,920
U/R
41,990
50
27
7.2
6.4
3
2
0
1.7%
-0.2
0.9 11.8%
n/a
ISAT
U/R
3,810
U/R
20,703
34
20
1.8
1.7
1
1
0
2.3%
N/M
0.7
n/a
n/a
sebesar
11%16dan 15.9
pinjaman-pinjaman
lainnya
sebesar
12.1%.0.2Data 0.2
ini mempertegas
TBIG
U/R
6,050
U/R
29,019
20
14.1
5
4
0
1.4%
70.5%
n/a
TLKM
U/R
2,340
U/R
235,872adanya
15 keterikatan/ketergantungan
14
5.3
5.0
3 yang 3 cukup0 besar
4.9% atas0.1perusahaan-perusahaan
0.1 39.7%
n/a
Note :
perusahaan
pembiayaan.
- *) means Company Data is using Bloomberg
Data
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A. means Not Applicable
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