inside the stock market

Transcription

INSIDE THE STOCK MARKET
...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Prepared by: Doug Ramsey, unless otherwise noted
http://leuth.us/stock-market
Major Trend Index Holds Just Above Negative Zone
For the first time in two years, the MTI’s Attitudinal category moved into positive territory at the end of
July. Both the June and July Green Books pointed out that, in the past, the same development coincided
with several important short and intermediate-term stock market lows.
Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows
The High/Low Logic Index, developed by market analyst Norman Fosback in the 1970s, provides one
way to assess whether internal market disparities have become dangerously extreme.
Valuation Gap In Chinese Equity Market
A-shares are overvalued relative to Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong and the U.S. These overseas
issues are still the better bet for investors bullish on China’s long-term outlook.
On High Alert
August is “National Eye Exam Month,” but this is the rare year we can confidently recommend
that you skip it. Warnings of stock market trouble have become clearer to see without thick lenses
or squinting. We can, just barely, make out the “big E” at the top of the eye chart, and suspect it means
to “Exit.” We made another move in that direction in late July, cutting net equity exposure in tactical
funds to 48%, from 55% in early July, and down from 61% six weeks ago.
The Major Trend Index (MTI), along with related disciplines we look to for substantiation and
reinforcement, are on the brink of negative signals. The table has already been set. Stock market valuations have been dangerous for at least a couple of years, and the Fed is slowly pulling away from its
reckless experimentation—a good thing in the long term, but not for stocks in the intermediate term.
Current stock market breadth, leadership, and momentum are all characteristic of a very late stage bull
market. The smallest amount of additional “confirmation” will send us to an even more defensive posture—but we recognize the hazards of waiting for too much evidence to fall into place.
•
If the seasonal pattern of the past quarter century holds sway, that bearish signal should arrive this month. Yet another year we’ll have to miss out on the Hamptons…
MSCI World Index:
Average Monthy Performance, 1988 To Date
3.0
© 2015 The Leuthold Group
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
Jan
Feb
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The Leuthold Group—August 2015
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
3
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION.
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. stock market has largely shrugged off the latest round of worries related to China’s
stock market collapse, the new down-leg in crude oil, a more hawkish tone in Fed-speak, and sizable
second-quarter declines in S&P 500 sales and earnings. Investors have had a more difficult time
shrugging off those concerns, however. For the first time in two years, the MTI’s Attitudinal category
moved into positive territory at the end of July. Both the June and July Green Books pointed out that, in
the past, the same development coincided with several important short and intermediate-term stock market lows. Should contrarians gear up for a late summer rally? We don’t think so.
The improvement in sentiment is
encouraging, but not sufficient to trump
the deterioration seen elsewhere in the
MTI and related stock market tools. In
particular, our market action work (i.e., the
Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category)
has sunk to its lowest level since the immediate aftermath of the severe 2011 market
decline.
For what seems like forever, we’ve
been willing to downplay legitimate overvaluation concerns by explaining that, technically, valuations could become even more
inflated, so long as the stock market continued to be “in gear.” (Or “uniform,”
“egalitarian,” “cohesive” or other jargon
meant to provide some variation on a trend
that obviously outlived our vocabulary.) But,
we can’t make that argument any longer.
For what seems like forever, we’ve
published the accompanying chart—we even
devised a simple “Red Flag Indicator”
around it a few months ago. The bulls point
out that “not all of the red flags are flying.”
However, while the Russell 2000 and S&P
Financials did not confirm the May 21st high
in the S&P 500, both have subsequently recorded new cycle highs. The broader picture
(look at the chart from an arm’s length) is
now clearly one of “fracturing” (or
“divergence,” “distribution,” “bifurcation”).
Fortunately, the market topping process is
now so advanced that our readers shouldn’t
have to suffer through these tortured descriptions for much longer. The next big move in
stocks should be down. Consequently,
we’re significantly more defensive than two
months ago (48% net equity exposure versus
61% six weeks ago), and we expect to get
more so as our disciplines allow.
May 21, 2015
latest S&P 500 bull market high
S&P 500
2000
2000
1800
1800
Dow Jones 65
Composite
6500
6500
6000
6000
5500
5500
Dow Jones Transports
9000
9000
8500
8500
8000
8000
7500
7500
7000
7000
650
650
Dow Jones Utilities
600
600
550
550
500
500
1300
1300
Russell 2000
1200
1200
1100
1100
S&P 500 Financials
300
300
S&P 500 Cyclical
Sector Index*
460
440
460
440
420
420
400
400
380
380
NYSE Advance/Decline Line
46000
46000
44000
44000
42000
42000
© 2015 The Leuthold Group x10
x10
2014
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*Equal-weighted composite of Consumer Discretionary, Industrials &
Materials sectors.
4
Weakening Foundation
Over the last few months, we’ve presented a couple of simple quantitative studies meant to encapsulate the factors driving our Major Trend Index to the brink of bear territory. The chart and table
might provide the best summary yet.
•
Leadership (Dow Jones Transportation and Utility Averages), breadth (NYSE Weekly Advance/
Decline Line), and corporate credit (DJ Corporate Bond Index) have all staged intermediateterm breakdowns by falling below their respective 40-week moving averages. But the S&P 500
has, through early August, remained impervious to this underlying trouble, holding above its
own 40-week average and within 1-2% of a new cyclical high.
•
The bull market has ground on for so long that it’s tempting to ignore these internal warnings. After all, the chart shows several intermittent periods of weakness in Transports, Utilities,
NYSE breadth and/or corporate bonds since the 2009 low. But the past six weeks represent
the first period since 2008-2009 that all four series have simultaneously been in 40-week
downtrends. The accompanying performance table shows that average S&P 500 annualized
returns have been about zero under identical scenarios… but those “average returns” include
significant pieces of the 1990, 2000-2002, and 2007-2009 bear markets.
2000
2000
S&P 500
(weekly)
1500
1500
1000
1000
Dow Jones
Transportation Average
5000
5000
Dow Jones
Utility Average
600
500
600
500
400
400
300
4500
300
4500
Market Status
Transports, Utilities,
NYSE Breadth & Bonds
above 40-wk moving avg.
Three of four series
above 40-wk moving
average
Two of four series
above 40-wk moving
average
One of four series
above 40-wk moving
average
None of four series
above 40-wk moving
average
S&P 500
Ann.
Gain
Pct. Of
Time
+15.3%
35%
+6.8%
22%
+7.5%
16%
-3.3%
11%
-0.1%
16%
Results for period April 1941 to date.
4000
NYSE Weekly
Advance/Decline
Line
4000
120
120
110
110
Dow Jones
Corporate Bond Index
100
90
100
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
All series shown with their 40-week moving averages.
5
Fed Watching For The 21st Century
We’ve become a bit self-conscious about the extent to which “market action” analysis has
grown to be a larger share of our commentary in the last few years (Charts 1, 2). But, such analysis is a
critical piece of our broader allocation work—and one that (we think) grows in importance during the
later innings of a bull market, when even sell-side market strategists are struggling to make a valuation
case for stocks. Measures conventionally disChart 1
missed/dissed as purely technical, in fact, help us
S&P
500,
MidCap
400
&
2100
1700
gauge the liquidity backdrop for stocks. For inSmallCap 600
500
2000
stance, in light of the preponderance of NYSE(right scale)
1600 Indexes
listed issues that are interest rate sensitive, we’ve
1900
argued for years that analysis of market breadth
1500
is simply an alternative (or perhaps complemen400
1800
(left scale)
tary) approach to the more gentlemanly pursuit of
1400
Fed watching.
1700
1300
The Fed’s “creativity” during the post2008 period has been lauded, but it has undermined several fundamental relationships we once
considered reliable. (We wrote an “Of Special
Interest” piece on this topic in 2011 that’s overdue for an update.) For example, the rate of
change in short-term interest rates “explodes”
when rates are at zero. This is a stock market indicator first proposed at least a hundred years
ago. Quantitative Easing compromised the
once-revered message of the money supply
measures, and a few years back, the Fed expunged a large set of valuable bank reserve data
in a manner that would make Lois Lerner blush.
These developments have increasingly forced us
to monitor Fed policy in a sort of “second derivative” fashion—i.e., by monitoring movements in
the asset markets themselves.
700
650
650
600
2014
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A
Chart 2
S&P 500, 400 & 600
Daily A/D Lines
Dec 29th
500
500
500
450
450
May 18th
400
400
400
Jun 23rd
350
The sudden struggle of equal-weighted
stock market indexes might well reflect the impact of tightening that’s either already occurred
(the lagged impact of seven QE tapering moves),
or that is still to come. Several of these equalweighted indexes have gone into relative strength
free-falls over the past six weeks (Chart 3), and
the Guggenheim Russell 2000 Equal Weight ETF
(EWRS) has already suffered an “official,”
CNBC-approved correction of –10% into its July
27th low.
350
600
2014
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Chart 3
160
S&P 500, 400 & 600:
Equal/Cap-Wtd RS Ratios
160
158
158
500
156
156
82.0
81.5
81.0
80.5
80.0
79.5
In sum, deteriorating stock market
breadth and worrisome leadership trends both
suggest liquidity has already tightened; whether the Fed follows suit in September may now be
just a formality.
700
600
600
125
124
123
122
121
120
119
2014
6
82.0
81.5
81.0
80.5
80.0
79.5
400
M A
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2015
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124
123
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121
120
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Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows
We’ve detailed the growing degree of stock market bifurcation, but the problem for would-be
bears is that such bifurcation can reach astonishing levels (witness 1999-2000) before the market is set
to peak out. The High/Low Logic Index, developed by market analyst Norman Fosback in the 1970s,
provides one way to assess whether internal market disparities have become dangerously extreme.
The weekly NYSE High/
Low Logic Index is calculated as
the lesser of: (1) new 52-week
highs as a percentage of NYSE
issues traded; or (2) new 52-week
lows as a percentage of NYSE
issues traded. For analytical purposes, the figure is generally
smoothed with a short- to intermediate-term moving average (we
use 10 weeks). High readings indicate simultaneously large numbers
of stocks making highs and lows,
indicating a dangerously high degree of internal divergence.
Chart 1
2000
2000
S&P 500
NYSE new
52-week highs
and lows are both
at elevated levels,
a sign the stock
market has
become internally
fractured.
1500
1000
The bifurcation within the
NYSE might come as no surprise,
given its extreme underperformance versus the NASDAQ market in the last year. But the High/
Low Logic Index for NASDAQ
(Chart 2) shows a similar level of
discord; its 10-week moving average has just entered the bearish
zone. Note that similar readings
appeared immediately before the
market collapses of 2000-2002
and 2007-2009, and did not experience the bothersome false signals issued by the NYSE version
of the indicator.
6
Above 5% - Tape is "divergent"- BEARISH
5
The High/Low Logic Index entered 2015 at a maximum
bearish reading above 5% (Chart
1), and following a four-month
respite, has again spiked into this
danger zone. We recognize that
the indicator issued a set of failed
signals in the second half of 2013,
but today’s bear signal occurs
with a broader array of supporting
bearish evidence than two years
ago.
7
(10-Wk. Avg.)
6
1000
false
signals
NYSE High/Low Logic Index*
7
1500
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
Below 1% - Tape is "in gear"- BULLISH
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
2015
*Index calculated as the lesser of NYSE Weekly New Highs and New Lows
as a percentage of issues traded.
Chart 2
5500
5000
4500
5500
5000
4500
NASDAQ Composite
4000
4000
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
NASDAQ High/Low Logic Index*
(10-Wk. Avg.)
Above 6% Tape is divergent = BEARISH
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
7
6
5
4
3
Below 1.5% - Tape is in gear - BULLISH
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
010 10
11
12
13
14
2
1
0
15
*Index calculated as the lesser of NASDAQ Weekly New Highs and New
Lows as a percentage of issues traded.
7
Minding The Gaps
We think stock market action in the next few months will provide the Fed with an excuse
to skip any rate increase in 2015. But our view is a minority one, and futures’ market odds on a September increase shot up in early August. Either way, the obsession over the timing of a Fed rate hike
ignores the fact that world P/E ratios are already contracting—at least on the basis of our 5-Year Normalized EPS.
•
Normalized P/E ratios
for both the U.S. and
foreign
Developed
markets peaked in
June 2014, and the
latter is down significantly (16.9x in July,
down from a peak of
19.5x). Emerging Market Normalized P/E
ratios are flirting with
their 2001 and 2011
lows. But the declines
have done nothing to
close the U.S./foreign
valuation gaps.
40
Normalized P/E Ratios: U.S.
Vs. Rest Of World
35
35
30
30
MSCI USA Index
25
25
22.3x
20
20
16.9x
(World
Ex USA)
15
92
94
15
11.2x
(Emerging
Markets)
10
90
40
Foreign
Valuation Gaps Are
Still Gaping...
96
98
8
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
10
18
Emerging Markets: A Half-Off Sale!
The Chinese government’s repeated stock market intervention attempts over the past several
weeks have been remarkable, and obviously antithetical to the country’s move toward a more laissez
faire corporate environment. But—with the Shanghai Composite still up 66% (Chart 1) in the last 12
months—are artificial supports even necessary? …It’s akin to keeping interest rates at zero during
the seventh year of a bull market and economic expansion.
The July swoon drove Emerging Market equities down to relative valuation levels seen only
very briefly during their (admittedly short) history. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index now trades at a
5-Year Normalized P/E of 11.15x—an exact 50% discount to the same calculation for the MSCI USA
Index (Chart 2). We’ll admit the valuation gap has become so wide that we’re increasingly tempted to
override our EM Allocation Model (which has presciently remained bearish for the past 4 1/2 years,
Chart 3). But we fear this gap might not begin to reverse until a cyclical bear market erupts; this month’s
“Of Special Interest” section reinforces our long-time argument that value-based approaches are prone to
stumble during the bull’s final charge.
Chart 2
Chart 1
Shanghai
Composite
5200
MSCI Emerging Markets Vs. USA
Relative P/E on 5-Yr.
Normalized EPS
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
(weekly)
1.15
1.10
5000
1.05
1.00
4800
0.95
0.90
0.85
4600
0.80
0.75
4400
0.70
0.65
0.60
4200
4000
0.55
now at a
50% discount
0.50
0.45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Chart 3
3800
0.50
3600
Emerging Vs. Developed Markets
Allocation Model
0.45
0.45
0.40
0.35
3400
down almost
a third-but still a nice
gain on the
year
0.30
Total Return Ratio,
MSCI Emerging Markets/
MSCI World Index
(USD - Monthly)
February
April
May
June
July
August
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.20
0.15
0.15
0.10
0.10
EM Allocation Model*
1.2
2015
LATEST
SIGNAL:
Switch into
MSCI World
Index
on February 28,
2011.
3200
3000
0.50
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.9
model "reiterated" a SELL signal in July
0.8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
*Buy Emerging Markets when Total Return Ratio breaks above upper band, and remain positioned
there until Ratio drops below lower band, triggering a switch into the MSCI World Index.
9
The 30/30 Club!
The S&P 500 Energy sector’s latest plunge puts it down by almost a third in the last 14 months,
placing it among the worst “isolated” sector declines in recent history (Chart 1). In January, we noted
Energy had already suffered a 20% loss outside of a broader cyclical bear market; there have been only
19 other instances of such “stand-alone” sector bear markets since 1990. But Energy now belongs to
the considerably more exclusive list of sectors which have declined 30% on both an absolute basis
and relative to the S&P 500—yes, the “30/30” Club!
With only three prior cases to consider (Charts 2-4), we shouldn’t draw generalizations. But we
can’t help it: Note that when these other stand-alone sector declines came to an end, either a broad
market correction (1994) or bear
Chart 1
market (2000-2002) was on the im760
740
mediate horizon. The message may
720
be that when liquidity is no longer
700
sufficient enough to float all of the
S&P 500
680
sector “boats,” trouble may soon be on
Energy
660
the way. Again, there’s not enough
(daily)
640
history to say.
620
With Energy groups still ranking near the bottom of our GS framework (Refiners are the exception), is it
time to worry about Energy joining
the 40/40 Club (40% decline/40% underperformance)? Only the Consumer
Staples sector has achieved that status
(appropriately enough, during the
peak of baseball’s steroids era from
1998 to 2000).
600
580
560
540
520
-32.8%
(August 4th)
2014
Mar Apr
500
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct
Nov Dec 2015
Mar
Apr
Chart 2
May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Chart 3
105
265
260
255
250
245
240
235
100
230
225
95
220
125
120
S&P 500
Health Care
115
110
1992-1993
215
90
210
205
85
200
80
-38.6%
1992 M A
N D 1992
M J
J
A S O
1993 M A M J
N D 1993
J
A
75
S O N
Chart 4
170
195
190
S&P 500
Consumer
Staples
185
180
175
170
1998-2000
165
160
165
155
160
155
150
-40.8%
O N D 1999
1999 M A M J
150
145
2000 M A M
J A S O N D 2000
145
140
135
S&P 500
Materials
130
125
1999-2000
120
-30.0%
1999
1999 M
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N
D
10
2000 M
2000
A
115
M
The 30/30 Club (continued)
Is a severe, isolated sector decline like Energy’s apt to be followed by outperformance? Based
on our tiny sample, the answer is yes.
•
As shown in Table 1, Health Care, Staples, and Materials sectors all reversed their “30/30” underperformance during the subsequent two years, beating the S&P 500 by an average margin of
+47.6%.
Table 1
The 30/30 Club:
S&P 500 Sectors To Have Declined 30% On Both An Absolute And Relative Basis
Outside Of A Cyclical Bear Market
Pct
Decline
Pct
Decline
Rel to
S&P 500
Relative
Perf.
Next
6 Mos.
Relative
Perf.
Next
12 Mos.
Relative
Perf.
Next
24 Mos.
16.3 %
57.7 %
67.7 %
Sector
Dates
Consumer Staples
November 23, 1998 - March 14, 2000
-40.8 %
-55.1 %
Energy
June 23, 2014 - August 4, 2015
-32.8
-39.4
Health Care
January 9, 1992 - August 12, 1993
-38.6
-46.1
9.4
16.1
37.9
Materials
May 6, 1999 - March 7, 2000
-30.0
-31.8
-11.3
23.1
37.3
Average
-35.5 %
-43.1 %
32.3 %
47.6 %
*Cyclical Bear Markets in the S&P 500:
July 16, 1990 - October 11, 1990
July 17, 1998 - August 31, 1998
March 24, 2000 - October 9, 2002
October 9, 2007 - March 9, 2009
April 29, 2011 - October 3, 2011
4.8 %
After the decline ended,
forward sector relative returns from
this tiny sample were excellent.
Chart 5
•
•
With our focus (and, for that matter, most
everyone’s) on the S&P 500 lately, we nearly
overlooked some of the incredible stats being
put up these days in the minor leagues. Think
the 30/30 Club is a big deal? There’s a Small
Cap sector that’s just joined the 60/60 Club!
Yes, the S&P SmallCap 600 Energy sector
had declined 64.0% into its August 4th low
(Chart 5), underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600 by –67.8% since June 30, 2014.
Again, Energy groups (save for the Refiners)
rate poorly in our Group Selection (GS)
model, and we don’t have a separate framework to handle the Small Cap groups. But
this chart finally smacks of capitulation…
S&P SmallCap 600
Energy Sector
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
-64.0%
2011
11
2012
700
(August 4th)
2013
2014
2015
Avoiding Gold
The vast majority of recent gold commentary centers on its extremely oversold technical condition and the related washout in all sorts of sentiment indicators, ranging from trader surveys to futures
and options positioning. Maybe these conditions will produce a short-term bounce, but we’re going to
stand with the message of our bearish longer-term work.
Chart 1
“Oversold” is in the eye of the beholder.
Gold’s four-year decline of around 40% does not look
all that cathartic on a monthly chart, especially one
that’s logarithmically scaled like the accompanying
Chart 1. Bullion would need to drop another 40%
to reach its median long-term ratio versus the
Consumer Price Index. And the ratio’s many years
of levitation above its median raises the odds of an
overshoot, when and if that median is crossed. (We’ve
expressed the same concern over crude oil, which—
for all the carnage its collapse has triggered—has
merely returned to an average level on a CPI-adjusted
basis.)
Gold Futures
2000
(monthly)
1800
1600
Gold's 40%
decline still
looks
muted on a
logarithmic
scale...
1400
1200
1000
800
$693
Implied
target
if the
Gold/CPI
Ratio falls
to its 1970to-date
median.
Gold’s action has historically been a pretty
good harbinger of near-term price trends for industrial
commodities, although the relationship has weakened
since the onset of the Great Recession. Historically,
the 12-month rate of change in gold has led the 12month rate of change in the CRB Raw Industrials by
about six months (Chart 2). Based on that trend,
gold’s 12-month decline of 15% suggests further
near term weakness in the CRB (even though the
latter also looks oversold in price and washed out on
the basis of most sentiment measures).
600
400
2000
2010
Chart 2
200
Gold's Action Points To Even
Lower Prices For Industrial
Commodities
150
200
150
100
100
12-Mo. Pct. Chg. In Spot Gold,
Advanced 6 Months
50
50
0
0
12-Mo. Pct. Chg. In
CRB Raw Industrials
-50
-50
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
12
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
18

inside the stock market

Transcription

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