SWURVE PROJECT PARTNERS UK
Transcription
SWURVE PROJECT PARTNERS UK
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/swurve/ EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK IN THE UK SWURVE PROJECT PARTNERS Increasing flood risk may be one of the largest threats from climate change. Recent severe flooding in the UK has focused attention on perceived increases in rainfall intensities. There have been significant changes to the timing and occurrence of multi-day intense rainfall events over the past decade, with the magnitude of multi-day extreme rainfall increasing two-fold over parts of the UK since the 1960s. Annual recurrence probabilities are quadrupled in some regions, with intensities previously experienced every 25 years now occurring at six-yearly intervals. Climate model projections also show these same patterns. There have also been changes in timing, with extreme events now predominating in autumn months. Comparison of estimates of 10-day duration, 25-year return period (or an annual chance of occurrence of 4%) rainfall event for both observed and regional climate model data EC Framework V Project EVK1-CT2000-00075 COORDINATION University of Newcastle upon Tyne Chris Kilsby, Dr H. J. Fowler Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences University of Newcastle upon Tyne Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU United Kingdom e-mail [email protected] [email protected] fax +44 191 222 6669 tel +44 191 222 5614 PARTNERS Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Dr T. A. Buishand, Dr G. Lenderink KNMI PO Box 201, De Bilt, 3730 AE The Netherlands e-mail [email protected] [email protected] fax +31 302 210407 tel +31 302 206450 Observed 19611990 HadRM3 control (19611990) scenario, ensemble mean Observed 19912000 HadRM3 future (20702100) scenario, ensemble mean Rainfall (mm) no data 100 120 120 140 140 160 160 180 180 200 200 220 220 240 240 260 260 280 University of East Anglia Prof P.D. Jones, Dr M. Ekström Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia, University Plain Norwich NR4 7TJ United Kingdom e-mail [email protected] [email protected] fax +44 1603 507784 tel +44 1603 592090 Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Prof A. Musy, Dr B. Hingray, N. Mouhous, B. Schäfli, N. Mouhous SIE, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne Gr-Ecublens Lausanne 1015 Switzerland e-mail [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] fax +41 21 693 37 39 tel +41 21 693 37 25 Instituto de Ciência Aplicada e Tecnologia Prof J. Corte-Real, M. Bernardin, Q. Budong ICAT Universidade de Lisboa Campo Grande 1749-016 Lisboa Portgual e-mail [email protected]; [email protected] [email protected] fax +351 266 745 300 tel +351 266 202 306 S USTAINABLE WATER : U N C E R TA I N T Y, R I S K A N D V U L N E R A B I L I T Y I N E U R O P E Background, Aims and Deliverables Examining the effects of changing water flow and water temperature on Atlantic salmon by: • examining how predicted regional climate changes could impact on the River Eden catchment using the latest Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3) data; METHODS AIM To study the impacts of climate variability and change on the sustainable use of water and its related activities in Europe by using the following objectives: • Assessment of risks to hydrologic and hydraulic systems posed by climate variability and change; • Assessment of vulnerability in terms of operation as well as economic, ecological and social costs; • Research into methods of mitigating possible effects of climate change on system vulnerability; • Account for uncertainty due to natural variability and error due to incomplete knowledge of future conditions. Present Time series inputs Hydrologic model Time series outputs The project aims to use assessments which incorporate the uncertainty, errors and natural variability of future hydrological scenarios in a statistical framework that will allow operators and agencies to make decisions based on quantitative probabilities and risks. An easily understood and transferable set of quantitative indices of reliability, resilience and vulnerability will be applied to a range of water related problems. APPLICATION SECTORS Regional climate pdf Hydrologic model Water resources Combined sewer overflows Sustainability Performance (RRV) Time series outputs • water supply and regulation; • transnational river basins; • hydroelectric power generation; • maintenance of lake levels and flows; • viability of river transport; • flood risk and economic consequences; • salmon fisheries; • combined sewer overflows and water quality. Salmon fisheries Transnational basins Future 1 Emissions 1 Future 2 Emissions 2 GCMs Time series inputs Future 3 Emissions 3 Emissions 4 Downscaling Future 4 Emission scenario pdf CASE STUDY: THE RIVER EDEN River navigation Flood risk Hydropower Impacts and Performance (RRV) Water resources Rainfall Discharge pdf pdf Probabilistic framework covering full range of scenarios Irrigation Impacts Uncertainty Sustainability RRV Hydropower CASE STUDY: JURA LAKE SYSTEM This is a system of three interconnected lakes (Neuchâtel, Bienne and Morat) located in western Switzerland formed 15,000 years ago by the retreat of the Rhine glaciers. Climate change may alter the annual evolution of the lake levels, causing the following impacts: • high water levels: flooding/water-logging of agricultural and urban areas • low water levels: insufficient water for agriculture, reduction in hydropower production, inappropriate conditions for riparian flora and fauna Each interest group defines an optimum and critical low- or high-water levels. A failure can therefore occur for one group and not for the others. Meteorological and hydrological data will be used to simulate climate change impacts on the management of the lake system, and determine the likelihood and frequency of any failure. • linking hydrological data to ecological data – determining current relationship between water temperature and salmon population; • modelling the effects of predicted climate change on the temperature tolerances of salmon. CASE STUDY: THE RHINE BASIN The Rhine basin (185,000 km2) stretches from the Alps to the North Sea and has the world’s highest traffic density for inland waterways. Its water is used for domestic consumption, irrigation, the hydropower industry and prevention of salt-water intrusion in the low-land areas. N Outlet Aare 0 15 km 30 • determining the significance of the flow volume to water temperature relationships; This Case Study will investigate the effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on flow using a water-balance approach. Precipitation and temperature data will be taken from HadRM3. Statistical downscaling will be used as a supplementary tool. Climate-related changes in streamflow, water availability and frequency and magnitude of peak discharges will affect all river-related activities, as well as flood defence structures such as dykes.
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