The Role of Population Growth in Addressing Global

Transcription

7 Billion and Counting: The Role of
Population Growth in Addressing Global
Food Security Challenges
Dr. Greg Pillar
Associate Professor of
Environmental Science
and Chemistry
Chair, Department of
Environmental Sciences
Thrive.
Our Broken Food System…..
FAO estimation in consultation with the USDA
FAO, 2010
Human Population
Global human population (billions)
Predicted
10
9.2 billion
6.5 billion
8
6.0 billion
6
2.5 billion
1 billion
4
1.6 billion
2
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Year
UN Population Division, 2009
2.5 people per second (80 million per year)
Riots and Protests
Egypt (April, June 2008)
Mexico (2008)
Tunisia (2008, 2011)
Haiti (April 2008)
Photo Sources: AP, Mahesh Kumar A, Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images, www.standeyo.com
By Ariana Cubillos, AP
Ecuador: The Ayme family of Tingo
Food expenditure for one week: $31.55
Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
United States: The Revis family of North Carolina
Food expenditure for one week: $341.98
Menzel & D’Aluisio, 2008
Food Production
(calories / per person / per day)
Food Production
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1950
1960
1970
1980
Time (yr)
1990
2000
2010
Our Broken Food System…..
40%
80%
88%
60%
12%
20%
less
lessthan
than$2.00
$1.00
$10.00
per
per
day
day
more
morethan
than$2.00
$1.00
$10.00
per
per
day
day
World Bank Developer Indicators, 2008
Food as a percentage of total
household consumption:
China
Vietnam
Philippines
45.6%
39.8%
India
49.5%
50.7%
Kenya
45.8%
Photo Credits: Reuters, AP, Nomura, AsiaNews.it
Guardian.co.uk, dailymail.co.uk
Sudan
52.9%
Ukraine
61.0%
Nigeria
73.0%
Nomura, 2011
Global Food Prices
Price (US $ per tonne)
1200
1000
Maize (US)
Wheat (US)
Rice (Thailand)
800
600
400
200
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Price of wheat, maize and rice between 1999 and 2011
FAO, 2011
FAO Food Price Index
FAO, 2011
“Modern” Agriculture
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Machines
Solar Energy
Precipitation
Carbon Dioxide
Fertilization
Seeding
Plant Nutrients
& Amendments
Seed
Tillage
Harvest &
Storage
Irrigation
Water
Agricultural
Chemicals
Purchased Inputs
Pest Control
Farm Production
Food Production & Fertilizer Consumption
5.0
1961 - 2002
Food Production
(billion tonnes)
4.5
4.0
R2 = 0.86
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Fertilizer Consumption (Mt yr-1)
FAO, 2011
Food Production & Resources (1961 – 2002)
5.0
R2
4.5
= 0.86
Food Production
(billion tonnes)
Food Production
(billion tonnes)
4.5
5.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
3.0
2.5
1.5
4.4
4.5
3.0
2.5
R2 = 0.99
1.5
20
150
4.7
4.8
4.9
5.0
4.5
2.0
1.5
4.6
Agricultural Land Area
(billion ha)
5.0
Food Production
(billion tonnes)
Food Production
(billion tonnes)
4.0
3.5
2.0
3.5
5.0
4.5
R2 = 0.96
4.0
40
200
60
250
80
300
R2 = 0.93
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
100
120
1.5
15
140
20
-1
25
160
Agricultural
Fertilizer Consumption (Mt
yr ) Machinery
Land Area Equipped for Irrigation
(million ha)
(millions)
30
FAO, 2011
Global Food & Oil Prices
1000
800
160
Maize (US)
Wheat (US)
Rice (Thailand)
Crude Oil (US)
140
120
100
600
80
60
400
40
200
20
Price (US $ per barrel)
Price (US $ per tonne)
1200
0
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
FAO, 2011
10
0.6
8
0.5
6
0.4
4
0.3
2
0.2
Arable land (ha/person)
World population (billions)
Human Population & Available Land
0
0.1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Human Population
Human population (projected)
Arable land
Earthtrends.wri.org
Faostat.fao.org/faostat
Agricultural Land Area & Available Land
1.1 billion hectares
17%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
71%
14%
Central/South
America
China
46%
77%
India
Europe
Planted Crops
Total Arable, Rain-Irrigated Land
49%
United
States
World Soil Resources Report, 2000
Soil Degradation
“The history of every nation, is eventually written in the way in which it
cares for its soil”
-- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Photos by Jim Richardson, National Geographic
Water Resource Use
Agricultural Water Use
Globally – 64%
Latin America – 71%
North America – 39%
Europe – 32%
Africa – 86%
Asia – 81%
Australia & Oceania – 72%
Water Resource Use
Freshwater withdrawal in agriculture, industry and domestic use. (2002). In UNEP/GRID-Arendal
Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 05:04, August 19, 2011 from
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater_withdrawal_in_agriculture_industry_and_domestic_u
se.
Water Resource Scarcity
Little or no
water
scarcity
Physical water
scarcity
Approaching
physical water
scarcity
Economic
water
scarcity
Not
estimated
Pesticide Fate
Ground Water
Streams
Fish
Ground Water
Streams
Fish
Ground Water
Streams
Fish
Mixed Land Use
33%
100%
96%
Urban Areas
49%
99%
100%
59%
Agricultural Areas
92%
85%
www.water.usgs.gov
Environmental Challenges
http://www.globalresearch.ca
Global Climate Change
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service & NASA, 2005
Global Climate Change
Australian Production
(million metric tons)
2.0
1.5
Justin Mott, NY Times
1.0
0.5
Wine Grapes
Rice
0.0
92 994 996 998 000 002 004 006 008
9
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Amy Toensing
modified from NY Times, April 17, 2008
Are we at a breaking point?
Are we approaching another global
revolution?
Thrive.
Yield and Demand Indexed to 1965
Food Production & Consumption
3.5
Global Demand (Crop Product Consumption)
Global Crop Yield
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
Norman Borlaug
(1914 – 2009)
1.0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008
Goldman Sachs, 2007
Corn
Field corn surplus
Alcohols
Sweet corn
Seed
4%
Feed
55%
Cereals
2%
Sweeteners
2%
Starch
2%
High fructose
Corn syrup
5%
Ethanol
30%
National Corn
Growers Association, 2008
Total Annual U.S. Non-Export Corn Production: 10.5 billion bushels
Food Sovereignty
http://www.irri.org
http://www.panna.org
Supply & Demand….
Subsidies
Import-Dependence
Hoarding
Additional factors that have influenced supply and demand
of cereal grains over the last few years
modified from Doyle & Zavislak, 2008
“Land Grabbing”
Selling Land
Purchasing Land
Von Braun & Meinzen-Dick, 2009
Photograph by Nicholas Devore III
Industrial Efforts to Improve Yield
Yield (tonnes per hectare)
5
4
3
2
1
0
a
ia
ia
wi
d
r
p
a
n
e
l
io
a
ig
h
g
t
Ma
N
U
E
li
e
u
q
Ma
bi
m
za
o
M
Average National Yield
Potential Yield (Plot Demonstrations)
modified from Mackenzie, 2008
Agroecology
http://ecosocialismcanada.blogspot.com
http://casfs.ucsc.edu/about/photo-gallery
“Industrial” Agriculture
Agroecology
Fertilization
Fossil Fuel
Resources
Machines
Pest Control
Solar Energy
Precipitation
Carbon Dioxide
Seeding
Fertilization
Seeding
Plant Nutrients
& Amendments
Seed
Tillage
Harvest &
Storage
Irrigation
Irrigation
Agricultural
Water
Chemicals
Purchased Inputs
Tillage
Pest Control
Farm Production
Push – Pull Pest Management: Kenya
“Pull” Plants:
Napier grass (Pennisetum purpureum)
Sudan grass(Sorghum vulgare sundanense)
“Push” Plants:
Molasses grass (Melinis minutiflora)
Silver leaf (Desmodium uncinatum)
Dr. Zeyaur Khan, Coordinator of the Push-Pull Programme, http://www.push-pull.net
Push – Pull Pest Management: Kenya
Dr Hans Herren, Director-General of ICIPE
Prof John Pickett, IACR, Rothamsted
http://www.push-pull.net
System of Rice Intensification (SRI)
Madagascar
• Planting of seedlings at 8 –
12 days (instead of 30 –
50 days), 25 cm apart
• Keeping soil moist (but
well-drained and aerated)
• Intercropping &
mechanical weeding
• Utilizing compost and
natural fertilizers
Pantanali (1996)
System of Rice Intensification (SRI)
Madagascar
• Used in over 40 countries
• 20,000 farmers in
Madagascar have adopted
• 90% reduction in seed
requirements
• 50% water savings
• 50 – 100% increase in
yield
• China 9 – 10.5 t/ha
(national avg = 6 t/ha)
Pantanali (1996), http://sri.ciifad.cornell.edu
Terra Preta Soil Improvement: Amazon
Photograph by Eduardo Neves
Julie Major & Bruno Glaser
Sustainable “Urban” Agriculture
Justin Sullivan / Getty
http://greensgrow.org
http://riotofreasons.blogspot.com
Urban Agroecology – Growing Power
http://www.growingpower.org
Urban Vertical Agroecology
Designs by Blacke Kurasek & Oliver Foster, http://www.verticalfarm.com/
Urban Vertical Agroecology
Designs by Kubala Washatko Architects, Inc., http://www.growingpower.org/verticalfarm.html
Thank You!!
Online:
http://www.pillarenvironmental.com
Twitter: PillarESci
Email: [email protected]
Thrive.

The Role of Population Growth in Addressing Global

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