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Bellingham, Washington
Bellingham, Washington Site Located at I-5 & Slater Road Market Research Overview May 2015 Prepared by Retail GeoScore [email protected] Planned Bellingham Development: Salish Village 700,000 Square Feet Upscale Retail GLA 165 Acres 160 Region-Serving Major Retail Anchor Large, Exceptional Indoor 325-400 Suite Water Park Hotel Salish Village Site Location Located on Interstate 5 at Slater Road Showing Relationship to Bellingham Airport, Bellis Fair Regional Mall, and Downtown Bellingham 60,000 Vehicles / Day Regional Location - Salish Village Development Site VANCOUVER 18.1-MILE DRIVING DISTANCE C ANA DA U N I T E D STATE S SALISH VILLAGE BELLINGHAM 5 SEATTLE 0 15 30 mi TACOMA Adjacent Metropolitan Areas - Vancouver & Bellingham GREATER VANCOUVER POPULATION 2.4 MILLION C ANA DA BELLINGHAM METRO AREA POPULATION 210,000 SALISH VILLAGE BELLINGHAM 5 SEATTLE TACOMA Site Location & Census-Designated Urbanized Areas (Orange) C ANA DA U N I T E D STATE S BIRCH BAY LYNDEN FERNDALE PEACEFUL VALLEY EVERSON 10 MILES SALISH VILLAGE BELLINGHAM 5 ANACORTES MOUNT VERNON OAK HARBOR CAMANO STANWOOD Canadians Account For: 50% of Golfing in Whatcom County (Bellingham) 40% of Visitors to Silver Reef Casino (Ferndale) 55-60% of Passengers Out of Bellingham Airport Also: Canadians May Now Bring Back $800 of Goods Duty-Free Impacting Both Lodging and Retailing in Washington Source: ”Lummi Nation Slater Road Property Market Study,” Bill Lee Land Econ Consultants Border Crossing Purpose Canadians Crossing into the U.S. at the Douglas / Blaine Border Whatcom County / Bellingham is the Final Destination for 58.9% of Canadians Crossing at Blaine Shopping Accounts for Nearly Half of Cross-Border Traffic Canadians’ Trip Purpose: Summer Winter Shopping 44.8% 49.6% Recreation 20.6% 18.5% Vacation 15.6% 7.2% Family Visit 7.9% 9.9% Other 10.9% 14.8% Source: Border Policy Research Institute, IMTC Passenger Vehicle Survey, July 2014 Retail Sales to Canadians - Bellingham License Plate Intercept Study Demonstrates That a High Percentage of Bellingham Retail Customers are Canadian RETAILER PARKING LOT % CANADIAN PLATES Walmart 48% Costco 72% Target (Bellis Fair) 53% Macy's/Kohl's (Bellis Fair) 36% Ross Dress 68% Trader Joe's 49% Source: Border Policy Research Institute, Border Policy Brief, Spring 2013 Area Border Crossings Generating Traffic to Site on I-5 GREATER VANCOUVER POPULATION 2.4 MILLION ABBORTSFORD-MISSION POPULATION 170,000 BLAINE LYNDEN SUMAS U N I T E D STATE S SALISH VILLAGE BELLINGHAM 5 Blaine, WA is the Second Busiest Canadian Border Crossing For Car & Bus Passengers Among 84 Canadian Total Border Crossings, Figures Shown in Millions #1 NY: Buffalo-Niagara Falls 12.2 #2 WA: Blaine 10.0 #3 MI: Detroit 7.3 #4 MI: Port Huron 3.9 #5 NY: Champlain-Rouses Pt. 2.9 #6 WA: Sumas 2.0 #7 MI: Sault Ste. Marie 1.8 #8 NY: Massena 1.7 #9 WA: Point Roberts 1.6 #10 ME: Calais 1.5 #11 NY: Alexandria Bay 1.5 #12 WA: Lynden 1.4 #13 VT: Derby Line 1.2 #14 VT: Highgate Springs 1.1 #15 MN: International Falls 0.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Rising Bellingham Border Crossings Car & Bus Passengers Annual Crossings From Blaine, Sumas, & Lynden in Millions, 1995-2014 18.0 15.0 12.0 9.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 2014 Border Crossings: • • • • Blaine: 10.0 Million Sumas: 2.0 Million Lynden: 1.4 Million Total: 13.4 Million Compared with 30 U.S. metro areas of similar population, Bellingham has a destination retail GLA deficit of 680,000 feet2 ...And this does not consider consumer demand from Vancouver Metro Area Po p u latio n GL A GL A D efici t #1 Torrington, CT 193,083 1,561,700 1,105,713 #2 Seaford, DE 191,685 1,875,400 792,013 210,000 1,987,500 679,913 #4 Yuma, AZ 193,572 2,132,800 534,613 #5 Redding, CA 183,901 2,145,000 522,413 #6 Kingston, NY 184,971 2,147,800 519,613 #7 Las Cruces, NM 202,485 2,208,500 458,913 #8 Medford, OR 204,464 2,249,000 418,413 #9 Tuscaloosa, AL 202,146 2,327,400 340,013 #10 Elkhart-Goshen, IN 200,091 2,370,700 296,713 #11 Bloomington, IN 185,500 2,420,800 246,613 #12 Anderson, SC 180,513 2,436,100 231,313 #13 Charlottesville, VA 196,474 2,462,900 204,513 #14 Athens, GA 190,136 2,468,500 198,913 #15 Racine, WI 197,998 2,505,600 161,813 #16 Lake Charles, LA 199,974 2,569,500 97,913 #17 Lake Havasu City, AZ 202,681 2,587,900 79,513 #18 Burlington, VT 211,172 2,629,500 37,913 #19 Houma, LA 207,039 2,649,300 18,113 #20 Johnson City, TN 194,396 2,715,300 -47,887 #21 Longview, TX 203,587 2,807,700 -140,287 #22 Prescott, AZ 218,514 2,880,800 -213,387 #23 Tyler, TX 196,814 2,959,500 -292,087 #24 Florence, SC 200,318 2,988,400 -320,987 #25 St. Cloud, MN 190,175 3,053,000 -385,587 #26 Lafayette, IN 190,888 3,177,100 -509,687 #27 College Station, TX 203,475 3,193,800 -526,387 #28 Springfield, IL 208,074 3,598,700 -931,287 #29 Rochester, MN 187,300 3,614,200 -946,787 #30 Saginaw, MI 208,714 3,704,000 -1,036,587 #31 Fargo, ND-MN 194,208 4,261,400 -1,593,987 Metro Area Average 2,267,413 #3 BELLINGHAM, WA Analog #1: Fashion Outlets of Niagara OSHAWA Pop. 360,000 TORONTO Pop. 5,580,000 HAMILTON C ANA DA U N I T ED STAT ES Pop. 720,000 5.6 MILES NIAGARA CROSSING FASHION OUTLETS OF NIAGARA ST. CATHARINESNIAGARA Pop. 390,000 BUFFALO CROSSING Center placed 5.6 miles from Niagara crossing, providing access to Canadian shoppers, rather than near center of Buffalo population and Buffalo crossing. Note: Distance to Toronto is considerably greater than distance from Bellingham site to Vancouver ~80% of center sales from Canada CBD BUFFALO METRO Pop. 1,130,000 Fashion Outlets of Niagara - Recent Expansion, GLA, Notable Tenants RECENT EXPANSION TOTAL GLA TODAY: 700,000 S.F. 200 OUTLET STORES OWNED BY MACERICH NOTABLE TENANTS BCBG MAXAZRIA Helly Hansen Michael Kors Brooks Brothers Hugo Boss Saks Off 5th Burberry Kate Spade Sperry Top-Sider Coach / Mens Kenneth Cole True Religion Cole Haan Le Creuset Tumi DKNY Lucky Brand Under Armour Analog #2: Champlain Centre & Published Trade Area (Pyramid) MONTREAL OTTAWA Pop. 3,820,000 Pop. 1,240,000 TR A DE AREA CHAMPLAIN CROSSING CHAMPLAIN CENTRE 20 MILES 60 MILES Plattsburgh metro population only 82,000 Located ~20 miles from border 611,000 square feet GLA Anchored by Sears, Target, JCPenney; Junior anchors include Dick’s, DSW, Gander Mtn., Best Buy, & Cinema Pyramid claims trade area population of 2.82 million including Canada, only 440,000 from U.S. side C ANA DA U N I T ED STAT ES Southern Border Analog: Unanchored 500,000 S.F. Gran Plaza Outlets Calexico (U.S.) / Mexicali (Mexico) Directly Adjacent to Border, Border Crossing, & Airport AIRPORT CROSSING MEXICO The center is located in Calexico, which abuts the Mexican border. The center’s trade area “has a combined population of approximately 2.4 million residents reaching from Yuma to the border of San Diego County, and south of the border beyond Mexicali.” As with other analogs, the non-U.S. side trade area population is considerably larger than its U.S. counterpart. There are about 50,700 daily northbound crossings from Mexico to the United States at the Mexicali crossing. Phase I (287,000 s.f.) completed October 2013; Phase II (220,500 s.f.) opening in 2016 NOTABLE TENANTS Aeropostale Guess Nike American Eagle Gymboree Old Navy Banana Republic H&M Perry Ellis Claire’s Kay Jewelers Skechers Coach Kenneth Cole Sunglass Hut GAP Michael Kors Tilly’s Planned Major Waterpark Hotel at Subject Site • Significant factor in how subject site varies from analogs • Waterpark hotels draw visitors from a radius of up to 180 miles Competition from South Seattle and the border to north curtails this radius somewhat to corridor from Seattle to Vancouver (see following page) • Primary retail effects: Expansion of primary and secondary trade areas Increased sales per square foot • Recommendations (Previous Study)*: 325 - 400 Guest Suites 60,000 - 80,000 square feet of indoor water park space *Citation: ”Lummi Nation Slater Road Property Market Study,” Bill Lee Land Econ Consultants Waterpark Hotel: Seattle-Vancouver Corridor Primary Trade Area (Red) SALISH VILLAGE Water Park Trade Area Demographics Population: U.S. Canada Total 1,764,000 3,131,000 4,895,000 Avg HHold Income: U.S. $81,800 Canada $75,100 Total $77,500 5 Growth Rate: U.S. 0.90% Canada 1.57% Total 1.35% SEATTLE GREAT WOLF LODGE INDOOR WATER PARK (TO SOUTH, NOT SHOWN) WILD WAVES WATER PARK (OUTDOOR) TACOMA Retail Competition Seattle-Vancouver Corridor BORDER Center SALISH VILLAGE BELLIS FAIR MALL CASCADE MALL OUTLET SHOPPES AT BURLINGTON Driving Distance GLA Bellis Fair Mall 4.7 Miles Anchors: Macy’s, Kohls, JCPenney, Sports Authority, Target 773,000 Cascade Mall 32.4 Miles Anchors: JCPenney, Sears, TJMaxx, Macy’s (Two Stores) 586,000 Outlet/Burlington Anchors: None 32.5 Miles 210,000 Seattle Prem. Outlets 59.1 Miles Anchors: Restoration Hardware 444,000 Everett Mall 72.2 Miles Anchors: Sears, Macy’s, Burlington Coat Factory 677,000 5 SEATTLE PREMIUM OUTLETS EVERETT MALL ALDERWOOD MALL NORTHGATE MALL BELLEVUE SQUARE SEATTLE Alderwood Mall 79.2 Miles Anchors: Nordstrom, Sears, Macy’s, JCPenney 1,283,500 Northgate Mall 88.4 Miles Anchors: Macy’s, Nordstrom, JCPenney 1,058,000 Bellevue Square 95.5 Miles Anchors: Nordstrom, Macy’s, JCPenney 1,300,000 Bellis Fair Mall - Among U.S. Fashion Centers Today: Modest/Moderate Tenanting, Superior Trade Area Population Located 3.4 Miles From Development Site Regional Mall Opened in 1988, Expanded/Renovated in 2003 and 2013 Size: 773,000 S.F. With 150 Stores, 99.2% Occupancy Anchors: Macy’s, Macy’s Home, Kohls, JCPenney, Sports Authority, Target Inline Shops: Definite Moderate Price-Point (Abercrombie & Fitch, Aeropostale, American Eagle...) - Without Upscale Exceptions. Trade Area Population: 862,000 (Including Canada) Target Store: 102,000 Square Feet - Small for Target. May Be Possible to Relocate. Prospects: Currently Serving Canadian Market Well, But Could be Eclipsed by a Larger, More Upscale Development With Super-Regional Serving Anchors. Subject Site Trade Area Definition (Red) TOTAL TRADE AREA SIZE: 3,220 SQUARE MILES GREATER VANCOUVER 30-MILE RADIUS TO TRADE AREA EDGE ABBORTSFORD-MISSION 16-MILE STRAIGHT LINE TO BORDER SALISH VILLAGE BELLIS FAIR MALL CASCADE MALL OUTLET SHOPPES AT BURLINGTON 48-MILE DRIVING DISTANCE TO TRADE AREA EDGE SEATTLE PREMIUM OUTLETS EVERETT MALL ALDERWOOD MALL NORTHGATE MALL BELLEVUE SQUARE SEATTLE Bellingham Site Trade Area & Income POPULATION United States 413,000 Canada 996,400 Combined 1,409,400 BLAINE AVG HHOLD INCOME: United States $66,700 Canada $76,500 Combined $73,500 LYNDEN SUMAS C A NA DA U N ITED STATES SALISH VILLAGE BELLIS FAIR CASCADE MALL OUTLET SHOPPES AT BURLINGTON Avg HHold Income: $ 0 -5 0 k $ 5 0 -6 0k $ 6 0 -7 0k $ 7 0 -8 0k $ 8 0 k+ 5 SEATTLE PREMIUM OUTLETS EVERETT MALL Bellingham I-5 & Slater Road Site: Salish Village 10, 20, 30-Mile Tapestry Psychographics (U.S. Only, Top 5 Segments) 0-10 Miles 0 -2 0 M iles 0- 30 M iles #1 Old and Newcomers (13.2%) #1 Green Acres (10.7%) #1 The Great Outdoors (10.5%) #2 College Towns (10.8%) #2 The Great Outdoors (10.1%) #2 Middleburg (9.5%) #3 The Great Outdoors (10.2%) #3 Old and Newcomers (9.4%) #3 Green Acres (8.2%) #4 Green Acres (8.5%) #4 Middleburg (9.1%) #4 Old and Newcomers (7.9%) #5 Set to Impress (5.7%) #5 College Towns (7.7%) #5 College Towns (5.1%) Green Acres The Great Outdoors Average HH Size: 2.69 Average HH Size: 2.43 Median Age: 43.0 Median Age: 46.3 Median HH Income: $72K Median HH Income: $53K Median Net Worth: $226K Median Net Worth: $124K Middleburg Old and Newcomers Average HH Size: 2.73 Average HH Size: 2.11 Median Age: 35.3 Median Age: 38.5 Median HH Income: $55K Median HH Income: $39K Median Net Worth: $89K Median Net Worth: $23K College Towns Set to Impress Average HH Size: 2.12 Average HH Size: 2.10 Median Age: 24.3 Median Age: 33.1 Median HH Income: $28K Median HH Income: $29K Median Net Worth: $11K Median Net Worth: $12K Retail Void Analysis: Major Retailers Not Present in the Bellingham Market / Bellis Fair aerie Eddie Bauer P.F. Chang's ALDO Fossil Papyrus Anna's Linens Gander Mountain Pearle Vision Art of Shaving GUESS Perry Ellis At Home Helly Hansen Pottery Barn Banana Republic Helzberg Diamonds Puma bareMinerals HomeGoods Quiksilver Bass Pro Shops J. Crew Saks Fifth Avenue OFF 5TH Belden Jewelers J.Jill Scheels Billabong Jared Jewelry Sephora Bloomingdale's Outlet Johnston & Murphy Soma Bose Jos. A. Bank Sport Chalet Bravo! Cucina Italiana L.L.Bean Sportsman's Warehouse Brighton Collectibles Lego Store Staples Brooks Brothers LOFT Sur La Table Build-A-Bear Lucky Brand Jeans Swarovski California Pizza Kitchen lululemon Talbots Casual Male XL LUSH Ted's Montana Grill Cheesecake Factory MAC Cosmetics Timberland Clarks Macaroni Grill Tommy Bahama Coach Maggiano's Tommy Hilfiger Cost Plus World Market Mimi's Cafe Ulta Dave & Buster's Neiman Marcus Last Call Under Armour David's Bridal New York & Company Vera Bradley Destination Maternity Nordstrom Rack White House Black Market Dick's Sporting Goods North Face, The Williams-Sonoma Disney Store Orvis Yard House Whatcom County (Bellingham Metro) Employment Jobs Involved in Tourism, Recreation, & Retail Trade 28.7% of Jobs in Whatcom County Support the Economic Activities Associated With Outdoor Recreation, Hunting, Fishing, and Shopping NAICS Code Industry Description Annual Employment % of Annual Employment TOTAL Total 82,312 100.00% 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 3,432 4.2% 44-45 Retail trade 10,834 13.2% 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1,501 1.8% 72 Accommodation and food services 7,833 9.5% Total 23,600 28.7% Whatcom County’s Mount Baker Rising Over Bellingham Source: Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages Washington State Statistics: Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Watching Activities in Washington by Residents and Nonresidents Fishing Anglers Days of fishing Average days per angler Total expenditures Trip-related Equipment and other Average per angler Average trip expenditure per day 938,000 13,449,000 14 $1,030,036,000 $539,035,000 $491,001,000 $1,085 $40 Hunting Hunters Days of hunting Average days per hunter Total expenditures Trip-related Equipment and other Average per hunter Average trip expenditure per day 219,000 2,547,000 12 356,251,000 $163,423,000 $192,828,000 $1,421 $64 Wildlife-Watching Total wildlife-watching participants Away-from-home participants Around-the-home participants Days of participation away from home Average days of participation away from home Total expenditures Trip-related Equipment and other Average per wildlife-watching participant Average trip expenditure per day 2,168,000 891,000 1,849,000 9,641,000 11 $3,173,371,000 $506,658,000 $2,666,714,000 $1,412 $53 Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2011 National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-Associated Recreation (Revised 2014)
