Functional Analysis and Risk Management in New Product

Transcription

Functional Analysis and Risk
Management in New Product
Development
Vince Thomson and Arman Oduncuoglu
McGill University
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Presentation Outline
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Motivation
Objectives
Cost and Risk Analysis Method (CRAM)
Thermo-flask example
Benefits of the method
Conclusion
Future work
2
Motivation
• To assess the impact of engineering change as early as possible
during the product life cycle.
• In new product development (NPD) projects, it is important
– to gain product knowledge as early as possible
– to meet quality and customer requirements
– to avoid cost and span time overruns.
• To develop a tool to help managers and designers with their
decision-making during the design process.
3
Objectives
• To develop a tool which can assist project managers:
– to quantitatively express product cost, development cost,
development time and development risk,
– to allow comparison among design alternatives,
– to allow the tracking of cost and risk as change occurs in
product design,
• through
– increased product knowledge during the early stages of design
– a quantitative, data approach.
4
Overview of the Framework
functions
design
characteristics
5
Details of the Framework:
FAST Diagram - Design Characteristics to Design Functions
How
Level 1
Why
Level 3
Level 2
Improve
or
achieve Relative
0.30
0.10
$0.50
allow mouth open
(DF12)
0.30
0.20
$0.50
0.170
keep temperature
(DF13)
0.20
0.40
$0.30
contain contents
(DF14)
0.10
0.15
$0.13
satisfy temp &
pressure (DF15)
0.10
0.15
$0.15
allow flow
(DF26)
0.50
0.05
$0.60
avoid spills
(DF27)
0.50
0.95
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF38)
1.00
1.00
$1.75
avoid breakage
(DF49)
0.50
0.50
$1.80
satisfy pres., with
light weight (DF410)
0.30
0.25
$0.72
clean easy (DF411)
0.15
0.15
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF412)
0.05
0.10
$0.01
grip bottle
(DF513)
0.70
0.50
$0.50
be comfortable
(DF514)
0.30
0.50
$0.15
stay stable
(DF615)
1.00
1.00
$0.52
attract visually
(DF716)
0.60
0.55
$0.12
satisfy feeling of
touch (DF717)
0.40
0.45
$0.26
7.00
7.00
$8.61
high
insulation
level
(DC3)
quality bottle
body
material
(DC4)
0.138
0.215
0.163
secure
holding
(DC5)
0.122
stable base
(DC6)
0.110
attractive
ext. color &
texture
(DC6)
Totals:
Actual
Product
Cost
(PrCo) ($)
stop contents
(DF11)
easy to use
(DC2)
Basic Goal
Fraction of
effort
required for
DF (e)
Weight of
importance
of DC (d)
secure lid
(DC1)
transport
liquid
Relative
Weight of
importance
of DF (f)
0.082
1.00
Risk Assessment
Step 1)
FAST:
Thermo-Flask
6
Step 1)
FAST:
Thermo-Flask
How
Level 1
Why
Level 3
Level 2
Improve
or
achieve Relative
0.30
0.10
$0.50
allow mouth open
(DF12)
0.30
0.20
$0.50
0.170
keep temperature
(DF13)
0.20
0.40
$0.30
contain contents
(DF14)
0.10
0.15
$0.13
satisfy temp &
pressure (DF15)
0.10
0.15
$0.15
allow flow
(DF26)
0.50
0.05
$0.60
avoid spills
(DF27)
0.50
0.95
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF38)
1.00
1.00
$1.75
avoid breakage
(DF49)
0.50
0.50
$1.80
satisfy pres., with
0.30
0.25
$0.72
clean easy (DF411)
0.15
0.15
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF412)
0.05
0.10
$0.01
grip bottle
(DF513)
0.70
0.50
$0.50
be comfortable
(DF514)
0.30
0.50
$0.15
stay stable
(DF615)
1.00
1.00
$0.52
attract visually
(DF716)
0.60
0.55
$0.12
satisfy feeling of
touch (DF717)
0.40
0.45
$0.26
7.00
7.00
$8.61
high
insulation
level
(DC3)
quality bottle
body
material
(DC4)
0.138
0.215
0.163
secure
holding
(DC5)
0.122
stable base
(DC6)
0.110
attractive
ext. color &
texture
(DC6)
Totals:
Actual
Product
Cost
(PrCo) ($)
stop contents
(DF11)
easy to use
(DC2)
Basic Goal
Fraction of
effort
required for
DF (e)
Weight of
importance
of DC (d)
secure lid
(DC1)
transport
liquid
Relative
Weight of
importance
of DF (f)
0.082
1.00
7
Step 1)
FAST:
Thermo-Flask
How
Level 1
Why
Level 3
Level 2
Improve
or
achieve Relative
0.30
0.10
$0.50
allow mouth open
(DF12)
0.30
0.20
$0.50
0.170
keep temperature
(DF13)
0.20
0.40
$0.30
contain contents
(DF14)
0.10
0.15
$0.13
satisfy temp &
pressure (DF15)
0.10
0.15
$0.15
allow flow
(DF26)
0.50
0.05
$0.60
avoid spills
(DF27)
0.50
0.95
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF38)
1.00
1.00
$1.75
avoid breakage
(DF49)
0.50
0.50
$1.80
satisfy pres., with
0.30
0.25
$0.72
clean easy (DF411)
0.15
0.15
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF412)
0.05
0.10
$0.01
grip bottle
(DF513)
0.70
0.50
$0.50
be comfortable
(DF514)
0.30
0.50
$0.15
stay stable
(DF615)
1.00
1.00
$0.52
attract visually
(DF716)
0.60
0.55
$0.12
satisfy feeling of
touch (DF717)
0.40
0.45
$0.26
7.00
7.00
$8.61
high
insulation
level
(DC3)
quality bottle
body
material
(DC4)
0.138
0.215
0.163
secure
holding
(DC5)
0.122
stable base
(DC6)
0.110
attractive
ext. color &
texture
(DC6)
Totals:
Actual
Product
Cost
(PrCo) ($)
stop contents
(DF11)
easy to use
(DC2)
Basic Goal
Fraction of
effort
required for
DF (e)
Weight of
importance
of DC (d)
secure lid
(DC1)
transport
liquid
Relative
Weight of
importance
of DF (f)
0.082
1.00
8
Step 1)
FAST:
Thermo-Flask
How
Level 1
Why
Level 3
Level 2
Improve
or
achieve Relative
0.30
0.10
$0.50
allow mouth open
(DF12)
0.30
0.20
$0.50
0.170
keep temperature
(DF13)
0.20
0.40
$0.30
contain contents
(DF14)
0.10
0.15
$0.13
satisfy temp &
pressure (DF15)
0.10
0.15
$0.15
allow flow
(DF26)
0.50
0.05
$0.60
avoid spills
(DF27)
0.50
0.95
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF38)
1.00
1.00
$1.75
avoid breakage
(DF49)
0.50
0.50
$1.80
satisfy pres., with
0.30
0.25
$0.72
clean easy (DF411)
0.15
0.15
$0.30
keep temperature
(DF412)
0.05
0.10
$0.01
grip bottle
(DF513)
0.70
0.50
$0.50
be comfortable
(DF514)
0.30
0.50
$0.15
stay stable
(DF615)
1.00
1.00
$0.52
attract visually
(DF716)
0.60
0.55
$0.12
satisfy feeling of
touch (DF717)
0.40
0.45
$0.26
7.00
7.00
$8.61
high
insulation
level
(DC3)
quality bottle
body
material
(DC4)
0.138
0.215
0.163
secure
holding
(DC5)
0.122
stable base
(DC6)
0.110
attractive
ext. color &
texture
(DC6)
Totals:
Actual
Product
Cost
(PrCo) ($)
stop contents
(DF11)
easy to use
(DC2)
Basic Goal
Fraction of
effort
required for
DF (e)
Weight of
importance
of DC (d)
secure lid
(DC1)
transport
liquid
Relative
Weight of
importance
of DF (f)
0.082
1.00
9
Step 1)
FAST:
Thermo-Flask
FAST Diagram - DesignRelative
Characteristics
to Design
Functions
Actual
Fraction of
How
How
Level 1
Level 1
Fraction of
effort
required for
DF (e)
Actual
Product
Cost
(PrCo) ($)
$0.300.30
0.10
$0.50
0.10 mouth 0.15
allow
open
(DF12)
0.15
0.10
$0.13
0.30
0.20
$0.50
keep temperature
0.50(DF13) 0.05
$0.600.20
0.40
$0.30
avoid spills
(DF27)
0.95
0.50 contents
contain
(DF14)
$0.30
0.10
0.15
$0.13
keep temperature
(DF38)
satisfy temp
&
1.00
1.00
pressure (DF15)
$1.750.10
0.15
$0.15
avoid breakage
(DF49)
0.50
0.05
$0.60
$0.300.50
0.95
$0.30
1.00
$1.75
0.50
0.50
$1.80
0.30
0.25
$0.72
0.15
0.15
$0.30
Why
Level 3
Level 2
Improve
Level 2
or
Relative
achieve Improve
stop contents
(DF11)
Weight of
importance
of DC (d)
or
allow mouth open
(DF12)
achieve Relative
keep temperature
secure lid
(DC1)
0.170
Weight of
(DF13)
contain contents
importance
(DF14)
of DCsatisfy
(d) temp &
pressure (DF15)
easy to use
(DC2)
transport
liquid
Basic Goal
transport
liquid
high
insulation
level
(DC3)
0.215
quality bottle easy to use
body
0.163
(DC2)
material
(DC4)
secure
holding
(DC5)
stable base
(DC6)
Basic Goal
secure
0.138 lid
(DC1)
high
insulation
0.122
level
(DC3)
0.110
quality bottle
body
attractive
material
ext. color & 0.082
texture
(DC4)
(DC6)
Totals:
1.00
allow flow
0.170(DF26)
Weight of
importance
of DF (f)
effort
required for
DF (e)
Why
Level 3
Product
Relative
Cost
Weight
of
(PrCo) ($)
importance
of DF (f)
0.30
0.10
$0.50
0.30
0.20
$0.50
stop contents
0.20
0.40
(DF11)
$0.15
0.50
0.50
allow flow
$1.80
satisfy pres., with
0.30(DF26) 0.25
$0.72
clean easy (DF411)
0.15
keep temperature
(DF412)
0.05
0.138
grip bottle
0.215
(DF513)
be comfortable
(DF514)
stay stable
(DF615)
0.163
attract visually
(DF716)
satisfy feeling of
touch (DF717)
avoid spills
0.15
(DF27)
0.10
keep
0.50
0.70temperature
(DF38)
$0.01
$0.501.00
0.30
0.50
$0.15
1.00
1.00
$0.52
0.60
0.55
$0.12
avoid breakage
(DF49)
satisfy pres., with
clean easy (DF411)
0.40
0.45
$0.26
7.00
7.00
$8.61
10
Thermo-Flask
Step 2) Cost and Risk Analysis Matrix
11
Thermo-Flask
• Column 1: design experts
(from FAST)
(from HOQ via FAST)
• Column 3 and 4: design experts
(from FAST)
(from FAST)
12
Thermo-Flask
• Column 6: Total Effort required to
achieve DF
− total effort : Product Complexity
Model
− span time: Norden’s Model
• Column 7: Actual Cost of DF (from
FAST)
• Column 8: Target Cost of DF
• Column 9:
[(Design+Product)/Target] Costs
– if > 1, opportunity for cost
improvement
– if <1 opportunity for performance
improvement
13
Thermo-Flask
Column 10-12: Risk Attributes
• Product Specific
– Development cost risk
– Technical risk
– Timeliness risk, etc...
• Triangular distribution
14
Thermo-Flask
Column 13-17: Monetized Risk
• Worst Case Scenario
• Column 13:
– Development cost risk
– Development cost
• alternative
Column 14:solutions
Step 3) Repeat Steps 1 to 2 for
– Technical risk
– Actual product cost per unit
– Sales volume in PLC
• Column 15:
– Timeliness risk
– Effort requirement
– Revenue in PLC
15
Thermo-Flask
Step 4) Integrated Evaluation Matrix - Current Design and alternatives
16
Thermo-Flask
CSLv = weighted average of the customer
evaluation values wrt. the importance
of
IEIv (Company satisfaction level) = Design
customer requirements
certainty multiplied by benefits over costs for
the product life cycle
17
Thermo-Flask
Resources
• Worst case scenario
• Normalized to
Benefits
original
design
• Worst
case
scenario
• Normalized to
original design
18
Thermo-Flask
Best Solution
Alt. 1 – Steel Bottle
Minimize resources
(red region)
Maximize benefits
(green region)
19
Thermo-Flask
20
Thermo-Flask
Step 5) Different cost structures for the Best Solution – Steel Bottle
21
Thermo-Flask
Choose the optimal configuration based on company strategy
Optimum Configuration
Config. 5 - $12.00
Assumes - medium risk
- balanced customer and company
satisfaction
22
Benefits
The proposed set of tools stresses a quantitative approach to
decision-making through increased product knowledge early in the
design process by providing:
•easily accessible and visualizable product information
•easily comprehensible analysis
•the comparative impact of engineering change
23
Conclusion
Decision-making is improved through increased product knowledge.
•Issues are addressed through quantitative techniques which are
integrated into a decision support system.
•Analysis is performed in a comparative manner with respect to the
original design.
•Design related information is presented in a compact form to provide
a one-glance summary.
24
Future Work
• Further investigation of techniques for many-to-many mapping
design characteristics to lower level functions.
– Current state: Design characteristics are assumed to be
mutually exclusive, and they are combined when there is
significant overlap.
• Integrating methods and instructions for standardized data
quantification.
• Increasing the extent of automation.
25
Thank You…
26
Acknowledgement
This research is part of the “Collaborative Development for Product Life
Cycle Management” (PLM2 CRIAQ) project.
The authors are grateful for the financial support of:
•Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)
•Consortium for Research and Innovation in Aerospace in Quebec (CRIAQ)
•Pratt & Whitney Canada Corp.
•Bombardier Inc.
•CAE Inc.
•CMC Electronics Inc.
•Rolls-Royce Canada Limited
27

Functional Analysis and Risk Management in New Product

Transcription

Similar documents

Ergebnis-Präsentation

Screen Services Brochure