StealthGas Inc.

StealthGas Inc.
Pressurized LPG Shipping – Continued strength
in one of Shipping’s healthiest segments
Christian Krohn-Hansen
Chartering Manager
Athens – March 2013
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable
federal securities laws. Such statements are based upon current expectations that
involve risks and uncertainties. Any statements contained herein that are not statements
of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. For example, words
such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “estimates,” “intends,” and similar expressions are
intended to identify forward-looking statements. Actual results and the timing of certain
events may differ significantly from the results discussed or implied in the forwardlooking statements. Among the factors that might cause or contribute to such a
discrepancy include, but are not limited to the risk factors described in the Company’s
Registration Statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, particularly
those describing variations on charter rates and their effect on the Company’s revenues,
net income and profitability as well as the value of the Company’s fleet.
Research for this presentation was
provided by:
2
Executive summary
• What is LPG, where does it come from, what is it used
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for, and how is it transported?
What is a pressurized vessel?
Pressurized rates firming
Pressurized trading in Asia compared to other parts of
the world
Petrochemical gasses – employing a large part of the
press fleet
LPG fleet profile
Minimal orderbook
Newbuilding prices
Pressurized market forecast
StealthGas Inc.
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LPG (LIQUID PETROLEUM GAS)
4
Type of Gas Carriers and Products
Vessel type
Size cbm
Type
Pressure
Freight
Qmax
255 - 265k
SSD/Reliquefactio
n
0.25 bar
LNG
Qflex
200 - 230k
SSD/DFDE
0.25 bar
LNG
Standard LNG
125 - 165k
DFDE/ST
0.25 bar
LNG
1 - 75k
DFDE/ST
0.25 bar
LNG
Small – Med
Max
VLGC
60 - 85k
Fully Refrigerated
0.5 bar
LPG,CPP
LGC
50 - 60k
Fully Refrigerated
0.5 bar
LPG, NH3, CPP
MGC
18 - 42k
Fully Refrigerated
0.5 bar
LPG
Small
2 - 23k
Semi Refrigerated
7.5 bar
LPG
NH3
Petrochemicals
Ethylene
Fully pressurized
Source: Lorentzen & Stemoco
18 bar
5
What is a pressurized vessel?
• Can handle pressure up to 18 kg/cm3(bar)
• 0 – 45 deg Celsius (some vsls able to do 10 deg C.)
• Can load at high ambient temperatures
and also refrigerated product, via reheater. But the vsls have no means of
cooling cargo.
• Sizes up to 11,000 cbm
• 2-3 cylindrical cargo tanks
• Main cargos traded;
– LPG – butane / propane
– Petchem gasses – propylene, butadiene, butene-1, raffinates,
CC4, vcm
6
Pressurized vessels are getting more and
more sophisticated
(StealthGas - Diamond Series)
• 5000cbm and 6500cbm – brand new design
• New eco electronic engines, with high speed / low
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•
•
•
•
•
consumption (about 15-20% reduced consumption)
Ice class (first of it’s kind)
- 10 deg C tanks
higher pumping capacity (50% improved)
Fully segregated tanks and separate load lines
Bow thruster
Loa < 100m / n2 generator / cargo re-heater / 4mt
crane / full vcm capacity
detailed vessel specifications available!
7
Gas Elixir, 5000cbm pressurized lpg carrier,
trading Indian Ocean
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USD 1000's per month
Pressurized tc rates (Asia / Europe)
350
INGE STEENSLAND AS
300
250
200
150
100
5000 PR 1yr TC west
3500 PR 1yr TC west
3500 PR 1yr TC east
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• Due to a finely balanced tonnage situation in NWE we saw a downward trend
in rates 2h 2012, however this trend has now shifted, and the rates are climing
again.
• Rates in Asia show continued improvement and we see a significant shortage
of vessels in the area, especially on 3500cbm and 5000cbm.
=> Vessels repositioning East until market balance is restored
9
1-Year TC Rate Volatility Since 2000
But, small LPG rates remain relatively stable
Small LPG tanker rates are significantly less volatile than crude tanker and
drybulk rates
1-Year TC Rate Volatility Since 2000
Data source: Clarkson Research
Services
Rates: 1-year TC measured
weekly
Dry Bulk: average of Cape,
Panamax, Handymax, and
Handysize rates
Crude Tanker: average of VLCC,
Suezmax, and Aframax rates
10
Employment of the pressurized fleet
11
PR 3200-5200 cbm
No. of ships
The market in the East is the key for
the press fleet
90
80
70
60
East,
NWE/MED
/Black Sea
China
50
LPG
40
Petchem
30
Americas
Africa
20
10
0
3200-3750
3750-5200
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Pressurized vessels in Asia
• About 60% of the world’s pressurized fleet
trade in Asia
– About 65-70% of these vessels trade mainly with petrochemical
gases
– Main main vessel sizes;
• 3500cbm – trading petchems
• 5000cbm – trading LPG (and also an increasing qtty of petchems)
• Major owners/operators; StealthGas,
Lauritzen Kosan, Unigas, EPIC, Daelim
• Major charterers; Shell(SIETCO), Petronas,
Petredec, Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Marubeni,
Vitol
13
Million tons
Continued growth in LPG
export from China
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
INGE STEENSLAND AS
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012e
• There as been a near 1000% increase in LPG exports from China
the last 6 years, and more or less all of it is carried on pressurized
vessels.
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14
PETCHEM TRADE RECOVERING
Mio ton
Seaborne chemical gas trade
% Growth
18
75%
16
60%
14
45%
12
10
30%
8
15%
6
0%
4
-15%
Ethylene
Propylene
VCM
Butadiene
Ton %
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0
1999
2
-30%
Cbm %
• Cyclical petchem trades maintaining healthy volumes, especially in Asia.
• Increased exports of petchem gases from SEAsia to NEAsia
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CHINA, CHINA,
CHINA?
Chinese petchem imports (mio ton)
Chinese LPG trade (1000 tons / month)
5
4
3
800
700
VCM
600
Propylene
500
Ethylene
400
300
200
100
1
0
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Exports
Imports
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
jan
mar
mai
jul
sep
nov
2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Oct
• Soaring Chinese petchem imports, esp. propylene shortage leading to over 200k
ton/months imports in recent months
• Distribution trading to close neighbors emerged overnight and provides significant
employment for Pressurized ships
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Pressurized shipping ex Black Sea
• Increased activity and export volumes ex Black Sea (Russian &
•
•
•
•
•
•
Kazakh LPG)
New export terminal at Taman (OTEKO)
Main export ports; Odessa, Illychevsk, Kerch, Temryuk
Main import destinations of Black Sea pressurized LPG; Turkey,
Albania, Egypt, Italy, Morocco
Main players; Aygaz, SHV, Naftomar, Petredec
Shipping - Several small owners/operators with old tonnage in
addition to the larger western owners/operators that are trading in
the area
Ice class and -10 tanks a big advantage in the winter season
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LPG/Pressurized fleet profile
• Very limited fleet growth going forward
• Negative fleet growth in 2013
• LPG orderbook significantly smaller than
most other shipping segments
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Despite a “stop” in new ordering, lots of ships
will be delivered
But not in the Pressurized LPG segment
30%
25%
25%
24%
19%
20%
19%
15%
12%
10%
7%
5%
0%
LNG
Offshore
Drybulk
Container
Crude Tankers
Pressurized LPG
*
•Compared to the total orderbook for the LPG fleet which is 12%, the pressurized
segment has an orderbook of only 7% (16 vessels in total), out of which 4 vessels
are for Stealthgas, 6 vessels for Petrobras for domestic Brazil business, 2 for small
Chinese owners for domestic China trading, and 1 vessel for Pertamina for
domestic Indonesia trading.
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The limited expansion in the PR fleet offset by a
decline in the SR fleet 2500-7999 cbm fleet
100
80
Orderbook
17
3
Existing fleet
22 24
17
20
0
18
16
12
6
14 15
12 12
7
9 10
7
1
2
1 1
2
1
4
3
6
1
3
-40
Expected
scrapping
13
8
3 5
4
1
2
-20
1 1
5
Historical
scrapping
1
2
3
13
40
Orderbook
7
10
20
7
5
0
5
8
6
4
2
1
2
8
6
6
3
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
3
2
4
4
5 8
4
7
Existing fleet
2
3
Expected
scrapping
2
2
3
8
4 4
2
2 2
4
-20
3
9
7
4
5
6 6
8
-40
8
15
Historical
scrapping
3 1
1,160,446 cbm / 272 vsls
86,722 cbm / 16 vsls
12.3 yrs
765,591 cbm / 168 vsls
117,828 cbm / 37 vsls
35,761 cbm / 13 vsls
6
-60
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INGE STEENSLAND AS
Existing fleet
Orderbook
Average age
Sub 15yr share
20yr+ share
25yr+ share
60
2
40
6
80
-80
7%
66%
10%
3%
INGE STEENSLAND AS
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
60
Semiref and ethylene carrier fleet
Thousand cbm
120
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Thousand cbm
Press fleet excluding the Chinese fleet
Existing fleet
Orderbook
Average age
Sub 15yr share
20yr+ share
25yr+ share
705,099 cbm / 146 vsls
72,760 cbm / 12 vsls
16.6 yrs
346,077 cbm / 66 vsls
175,936 cbm / 40 vsls
129,699 cbm / 28 vsls
10%
49%
25%
18%
20
Fleet age profile
Pressurized
3% 2%
0-4
5-9
12 %
28 %
10-14
15-19
20 %
20-24
16 %
19 %
25-29
30+
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3000-8000 cbm Fleet Development Vs.
TC Rates/Earnings*
500
400
5%
300
200
Fleet growth in % (bars)
10%
INGE STEENSLAND AS
0%
100
Overall 3000-7999 fleet growth
SR 6500 cbm TCE
PR 3500 cbm 1yr TC East
-
SR 3000-7999 fleet growth
SR 3500 cbm 1yr TC
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-5%
2000
TC equiv. spot earnings
TC rates in USD 1000's per month (lines)
600
•TC equivalent spot earnings are assessed average earnings in the spot market excluding waiting time. Yearly average
•Fleet growth excl. Chinese fleet, assuming 30 year scrap age by end 2013.
Source: Inge Steensland AS
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NB PRICES
Gas NB prices ($ Mio)
60
25
50
3500 Pr asset prices ($ Mio)
20
40
15
30
10
20
10
5
0
jan. 80 jan. 85 jan. 90 jan. 95 jan. 00 jan. 05 jan. 10
24k Fr
5k Pr
12/15k Sr
3.5k Pr
8-10/12k eth
0
apr.1999 apr.2002 apr.2005 apr.2008 apr.2011
-
Cheaper Yen could potentially open up for more pressurized orders going forward
-
Adjusted for inflation pressurized N/B prices are at it’s lowest in 15 years
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However, the Pressurized LPG segment is receiving very limited interest from
newcomers, and some of the main pressurized owners that are also involved in for
example Dry and Tankers, currently do not have the cash to expand their LPG business.
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Forecast
• Asian market to continue the firm trend
• Europe market to rebound from the drop experienced 2h 2012
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
due to vessels heading east
3500cbm’s very firm, 5000cbm’s and larger sizes to follow
China will continue to play the leading role. Petrochemical
imports / LPG exports - pressurized
Indonesia, China, Vietnam will continue to expand their
domestic fleets. Korea likely to increase their fleet.
Black Sea to play an increasingly important role, new terminals
and more export product
New regulations in the US open up for propane export from the
USG on pressurized tonnage. Big volume increase due to
shalegas.
Orderbook to shrink or stay stable due to limited new orders
Ship values to stay relatively steady short term, increase long
term
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StealthGas Inc.
25
Types of vessels and products carried
Fleet Composition (including 4 NBs)
Acquisition of 4 super Eco type Newbuilding LPG carriers built in South Korea.
3
26
Fleet composition
• Pressurized
– 6300-7500cbm: 8 vessels
– 5000cbm: 11 vessels
– 3300-4100cbm: 10 vessels
• New buildings pressurized
– 6500 cbm: 2 vessels
– 5000 cbm: 2 vessels
• Semi-ref
– 3200-4100cbm: 4 vessels
• Tankers (3 MR’s / 1 Aframax)
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Fleet Development
•
•
•
•
Newbuilding program of 5 LPG carriers delivered in 2011/12
Newbuilding program of 4 LPG carriers delivering in 2014
Newbuilding program has committed financing
Selective sale of older & smaller tonnage in 2012/13
3
28
Fleet Employment Profile
4
29
StealthGas Inc.
Listed on NASDAQ – under ticker symbol
“GASS”
Chartering contact info;
Christian Krohn-Hansen
Chartering Manager
Stealth Maritime Corp. S.A.
+30-210-6252-849
E-mail: [email protected]
Visit our Website at:
www.stealthgas.com
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